The NFL Schedule is announced tomorrow night!

Here are some predictions from @NFLScheduleLeaks:

UPDATED Week 1/Thanksgiving predictions

Week 1:

TNF DAL @ TB

SNF: PIT @ KC

MNF1: CLE @ BAL

MNF2*: ARI @ LARA

Thanksgiving:

GB @ DET

LV @ DAL

CLE @ PIT

We believe, as does Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times, that the Thursday night opener will be Buffalo at Tampa Bay.

– – –

If the Lockdown Governor of New Jersey is coming just short of promising a full house in the Meadowlands, it sounds like most, if not all, NFL stadiums will be open for big business come September.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

There were no fans at MetLife Stadium for Giants and Jets games during the 2020 season and they didn’t miss much as the two teams combined to go 8-24 while missing the playoffs.

Both teams hope that their offseason moves will make for better results on the field and signs are pointing toward having a lot more people on hand to watch their 2021 games. New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said that recent trends regarding COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and vaccinations point to relaxed protocols that would allow for full capacity come the fall.

“I think the prospects are pretty good,” Murphy said, via NJ.com.

The Giants and Jets will find out who they play each week on Wednesday. Final word on how many fans will be on hand will have to wait a bit longer, but things look promising at the moment.

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

Michael Lombardi of The Athletic says the Bears shouldn’t fool around with QB ANDY DALTON.

When asked when the right time to start rookie quarterback Justin Fields will be, Bears head coach Matt Nagy responded with, “I promise you every single person will know, including Justin, when it’s the right time, and that’s naturally how it happens.”

But will everyone know? I mean, seriously, who will actually know all the details and make the decision to move ahead? The NFL isn’t Little League, where the dominant talent is easy to spot. Deciding who will start at quarterback, who will lead the team and become the face of the franchise, is not an organic development. Trust me, not everyone will know. When can you ever get “everyone” to agree on anything?  It takes planning, development and the courage to take the training wheels off because there will be growing pains. The words “ready” and “rookie quarterback” don’t go together too often, though there are some very notable exceptions (the most recent one being Justin Herbert of the Chargers.) But has there ever really been an easy decision when it comes to the quarterback position? It’s a bit easier with teams like the Jaguars and Jets, where Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson were picked with the specific intent of automatically being the starter, so there is no wait-and-see time frame. Both men were given the positions because of their college careers; Nagy is talking about earning the job, which comes with judgment, vision, timing and the willingness to risk success today for a better future tomorrow.

Bears fans will want Fields to start from day one because new is always better than old. Wouldn’t you rather have an unproven Justin Fields than a proven Andy Dalton? Starting Dalton under center is like having a pair of twos in a Texas Hold ’Em — they might look good on the first turn, but they’re never good enough to substantially bet or possibly win the hand. You need better cards.  The first time Andy Dalton throws one of his classic red-zone interceptions, Bears fans will be on their feet screaming for Fields. But position coaches love to play it safe and often want to start the season with the player who makes their lives easier, meaning the player who knows “what to do.” Much like Tyrod Taylor in Los Angeles last year, the incumbent usually has the edge with the coaches because they hate uncertainty. If a player makes mental or physical mistakes during a game or practice, those mistakes reflect badly on the coach’s teaching skills. Last season, the Chargers had no choice but to play Herbert and live with the mistakes—which were few. They looked silly after Herbert played, causing most to ask, why wasn’t he the starter from day one?

It’s likely because putting a rookie quarterback in charge is not an “everyone” decision, as Nagy suggested.  Not everyone can see potential, not everyone can predict the future, nor can everyone understand the effects of not naming the rookie the starter. Only one man can make this call — the head coach. (Matt, this one is on you, and it’s why you make the big bucks.) Nagy has to stand in front of the team with conviction, a decision based on the evidence gleaned from practice and preseason work. Not everyone will be on board; not everyone will understand the rationale — which is fine.

Last year this exact situation occurred in Miami when head coach Brian Flores displaced starter Ryan Fitzpatrick after a Week 6 win against the Jets to insert rookie Tua Tagovailoa.  At that point, the Fins were 3-3 and won their second game in a row. Was that the right time to make a change? Was Tua better than Fitzpatrick?  No, look at the numbers. On first down, Fitz averaged 9.02 yards per attempt; Tua, 6.72. On third down, Fitzpatrick was at 5.55 yards per attempt, whereas Tua was at 4.65. Those numbers are real — and Flores took a huge leap of faith moving to Tua. He knew it wasn’t obvious to everyone; he also knew he had to protect the team from losing in the short-term, which is why he pulled Tua in Denver and Las Vegas.  Flores couldn’t risk losing the team, so he showed great courage to make the moves needed — even though he risked messing with his rookie quarterback’s mindset. He knew he needed to play Tua even though Tua was not ready, and even though not everyone agreed.

What if the Bears lose three games in a row next season during October as the Ravens did during Lamar Jackson’s rookie year? Would then be the right time for Nagy to make a move? Before Jackson made his first start against the Bengals in Week 11 and after the Ravens’ bye week in Week 10, he had thrown 12 passes in NFL regular-season games and had 28 rushing attempts. He played sparingly — no one was sure what he could do or how he could impact the offense. Back then, Jackson was thought of as a gadget player, a player they hoped could spark their dull offense led by Joe Flacco. It’s almost certain that the decision to start Jackson in Week 11 was not a unanimous one throughout the Ravens organization. Head coach John Harbaugh had to make the tough choice, hoping the success he observed from Jackson throwing the ball in practice would transfer over to the game field. Harbaugh was not certain; not everyone saw the potential or thought Jackson would become the NFL MVP 12 months later. It was a calculated risk.

You might ask: What happens if Fields beats out Dalton or last year’s starter Nick Foles during the preseason? That would be hard to imagine because Fields will need to learn how to play faster, command the language of the Bears’ offense and be fluent in making the right checks and calls. This is not a knock on Fields, it’s just the reality of the situation. It will take time for Lawrence and Wilson to learn as well. The difference is Lawrence and Wilson will get all the reps in practice and games, which means they can grow within the offense at a faster rate. Think of all three men learning a new language, because learning a new offense is similar. Lawrence and Wilson will take a class every day for 15 hours a day, and Fields will take one for three. Who will speak the language faster?  It takes more than three preseason games and limited reps at training camp.

College quarterbacks spend so much time staring at the sideline looking for the play, based on the famous cards with different pictures — which helps the entire offense understand the play. They enter the league without a baseline language to enhance their development. They never call plays in the huddle, never have to remind the back to not leave too early, as — for example — the Will linebacker loves to delay blitz, or the slot corner cheats when he is coming. College quarterbacks can focus on what they have to do, whereas pro quarterbacks must tell everyone what to do and have the ability to rattle off the language with the flow and an emphasis on certain words. If a rookie quarterback cannot communicate the offensive language to the team, it becomes hard for him to participate instantly.

To start Fields as a rookie from day one would require a leap of faith from Nagy and a willingness to suffer early in the season if the growing pains cause the Bears’ offense to lack consistency. Some coaches may fear that scenario, but Nagy should look past this season and give all the reps to Fields, announcing him as the day one starter. The best chance the Bears have to compete for a playoff spot this season and next will be if Fields becomes a blue-chip talent. Why waste time messing with Dalton?

When the season begins, if Nagy does not have the guts to start Fields, he will eventually have to make the change based on three factors. No. 1:  The season is slipping away; what do we have to lose? We might save our job if the kid plays well — even though we don’t think he will. No. 2:  Fields is dominating in practice, and we can no longer ignore the obvious. No. 3: Our present starter cannot win, and everyone knows it, so let’s make a change to make the fans happy even though the kid is not ready.

Of those three options facing Nagy, No. 1 is probably the reality based on the Bears’ overall current talent level. Even though the Bears went to the playoffs last season at 8-8, the odds of their win total for the 2021 season is set at seven wins. Rarely does a playoff team have their win total reduced the following season, yet the experts who set those odds are not enthused with the Bears’ moves this offseason. And can you blame them? Other than their problems at quarterback, the Bears lack a solid offensive line, inflamed by the recent release of their starting left tackle Charles Leno. Leno was by no means a great left tackle, but to turn the job over to rookie second-round pick Teven Jenkins is risky considering the right tackle position remains unsettled as well. With concerns at both tackles, quarterback and a need for a backup runner, the Bears’ offense is questionable. With Nagy returning as the ultimate play designer and caller, the promises of the Bears having a great season remain doubtful — which then leads to playing Fields because of Factor No. 1. Nagy knows his future is risky, but if (and that’s a big if) Fields can play well, he can save his job regardless of the win total.

Drafting Fields has given Nagy the mulligan he needed to potentially save his job. The decision to use that mulligan won’t be obvious to all, only Nagy. Will Nagy have the courage and vision to make the call? If he waits until the choice is obvious to all, he might have wasted the one card he can play to save his future.

GREEN BAY

WR JAVANTE ADAMS doesn’t exactly say that he and QB AARON RODGERS are a package deal.  But he does indicate extreme interest in the state of Rodgers’ relationship with the Packers.  Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com:

The Aaron Rodgers trickle-down effect has begun, and the first player it could impact is All-Pro receiver Davante Adams.

Adams is in the final year of his contract, and if his quarterback is done in Green Bay, then it could complicate things for Adams in Wisconsin.

“Potentially, potentially; that’s my guy,” Adams said Monday during an appearance on Fox Sports Radio. “That’s the only guy that I’ve had — other than that 2017 season, when he got hurt. That’s the only guy that I’ve played with. We’ve built up a special connection over the years that has put us both in really good positions in our career. Not that he needed me to come along for it, because he was already in that spot, but we’ve established a lot together.

“So, it would change a lot. Doesn’t mean potentially I’d be gone, but I’d definitely have to do some extra thinking if my guy wasn’t here.”

Adams, who caught 115 passes for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns last season, is in the final year of a four-year, $58 million deal. With an average salary of $14.5 million per year, he has slipped to No. 15 on the receiver pay scale.

Adams said he’s talked with Rodgers “a little bit” since the news of his quarterback’s disgruntlement with the Packers was first reported by ESPN last month.

“A lot is still being figured out on his end, so it’s tough for me to get into the specifics and speak on it,” Adams said. “Obviously, I would love to. Can’t wait until I can tell you he’s back and we’re back doing our thing we’ve been doing. But for now, you’ve got to iron out a few things. Hopefully I’ll be back on the show and we’ll be celebrating taking shots and whatnot.

“We all know this is a pretty intense business,” Adams said. “There’s a lot that happens, a lot that goes on here. Just like any other job, you want to be happy, and once you’ve gained that respect, you want to be treated with that type of respect. There’s certain things that I can’t speak on specifics, but there are certain things that he wants, and maybe the club wasn’t so excited about living up to right away.

“And that can affect a guy who’s done so much for an organization. He’s put his body and really laid his life on the line out there for that team, for his teammates. So I’ve been behind him 100 percent throughout the whole thing. Obviously I’m praying everything works out and we get him back and we can continue to go out there and continue to do stuff like we did [last season] because it’s a lot of fun doing that.”

As for Rodgers’ possible replacement, Jordan Love, Adams said it’s tough to evaluate him given how few reps he’s had.

“Based off what I’ve seen, he works really hard, he’s really attentive and he’s like a sponge with Aaron in that room, just soaking up everything, all the knowledge and different things,” Adams said. “With his mechanics, I know he’s been working on [them] to try and get better and better. But it’s tough, because I haven’t seen him play, I haven’t seen him get out there in preseason. So after this year, I think we’ll be able to give a more accurate assessment of that, seeing him go against a few other teams, maybe some training camp practices [with another team]. So we’ll see. I definitely have faith that he can get it done and whoever’s out there, I showed it in 2017 with Brett Hundley, I’m going to get out there and be ready to ball regardless. Control what I can control. And Love, he’s been looking good from what I’ve seen, but that real live action is what will really let us know.”

– – –

Matt Schneidman of The Athletic on the tough position that QB JORDAN LOVE finds himself in:

The first time Aaron Rodgers spoke publicly after the Packers drafted Jordan Love, he made one thing clear: Love didn’t ask for all this.

Love didn’t ask to be the subject of a pick that would frustrate a future Hall of Famer. He didn’t ask to be taken by a team whose fan base largely despised the selection. And he certainly didn’t ask to be a supporting cast member of the biggest drama in sports this summer.

Love is only 22 years old, the No. 26 overall pick in the 2020 draft who the Packers traded up for with four years still remaining on Rodgers’ contract.

“The way I take it is, obviously they know what they’re doing with the Packers. They took a chance on me,” Love said shortly after being drafted. “For the most part, I’m coming in just ready to work. Outside opinions, they don’t matter to me, for the most part. Just ready to get in here and work.”

– – –

Love is essentially in a no-win situation.

If Rodgers plays for the Packers, the makeup would likely come with the organization committing to Rodgers for the next couple of years. Love then becomes an afterthought, as he was during Rodgers’ 2020 MVP season, his growth potentially stunted because he’s riding the bench for so long. Would the Packers then trade Love and start from scratch with their quarterback succession plan? If so, Love’s name would become forever attached to the idea of a wasted draft pick, however unfair that label may be to him.

If Rodgers doesn’t play for the Packers, Love instantly shoulders the impossible burden of following Rodgers’ historic season. Even if everyone understands that: 1) Love was never meant to take the reins this early; and 2) He likely won’t be nearly as good as Rodgers, disappointment from the fan base will inevitably follow because they’d know what could have been if Rodgers and the organization had reconciled.

Don’t feel bad for Love. He’s still paid handsomely to throw a football, and got to learn behind one of the best quarterbacks ever for a year (and maybe more). But in terms of strictly football scenarios, this is just about as uncomfortable as it can get for a young player. Not to mention the potential future quarterback of a franchise that has enjoyed three straight decades of Hall of Fame talent at the position with Favre and Rodgers.

“I’ve talked to Jordan and I told him, ‘You know, there’s a lot of noise out there. You can’t focus on that. You’ve got to focus on yourself,’” head coach Matt LaFleur said after the draft. “And, I know you guys think it’s cliché, but he’s got to be the best version of him and he’s got to do everything in his power to make sure he knows the expectations, the standards which we’ve developed at that position. …

“I know he’s working his tail off to come back in the best possible shape and be the best possible player he can be. He’s given everything he’s got into the workouts and into our virtual meetings. He’s doing a great job and learning a lot, but the reality of the situation, he’s a young quarterback, and he’s a young quarterback who wasn’t provided an offseason really last year. … I think we’re all interested to see where he’s at. We’re excited about him. I think he is a talented player, but we all know that with any young players, specifically at that position, there’s always going to be room to grow.”

If it seems that the Packers — Gutekunst, LaFleur and president Mark Murphy — were basically begging for Rodgers to stay in their public comments after this story broke, it’s because that’s exactly what they’re doing. Not just because Rodgers is one of the best in the world at what he does and each of their jobs would be much less stressful with him at the helm of the only team he has ever played for, but because they all know how much trouble the Packers might be in leaning on a 22-year-old quarterback yet to take a meaningful NFL snap.

No matter how this saga develops over the coming months, there aren’t many ways Love can win short of taking the Packers to the playoffs, even if their season concludes in a first-round exit. Even then there might still remain the question of how much further the Packers could’ve gone with Rodgers, so it’s difficult to see a scenario in which Love emerges from this whole fiasco entirely unscathed.

But remember what Rodgers himself said almost a year ago. Love didn’t ask for any of this. Not to be drafted into an awkward situation, not to have his entire first preseason canceled by a pandemic, not to find himself near the middle of the biggest storyline in sports for all the wrong reasons.

But the 22-year-old got it, all of it, and might have to work magic to overcome the unfair odds set upon him.

MINNESOTA

The Vikings have interest in veteran EDGE RYAN KERRIGAN, who until now had always played for Washington.  Dustin Baker of Purpleptsd.com:

The Minnesota Vikings spent three of their first four picks in the 2021 NFL Draft on offensive players — an oddity for a team coached by Mike Zimmer.

Zimmer is notorious for captaining a defense-first or defense-always operation.

There was a relatively pressing need for an EDGE rusher to join the roster, but general manager Rick Spielman preached offense, offense, and more offense early in the draft. However, the Vikings did choose defensive ends Patrick Jones II from Pittsburgh and Janarius Robinson from Florida State after the offensive wave.

Therefore, Minnesota probably needs a veteran EDGE rusher for the 2021 squad — if it does not fully trust the conglomeration of Stephen Weatherly, D.J. Wonnum, Jalyn Holmes, Kenny Willekes, and rookies Jones and Robinson. According to KSTP‘s Darren Wolfson, an important name to monitor is Ryan Kerrigan from the Washington Football Team.

Kerrigan, a Pro Bowl EDGE rusher, is an available free agent. His entire career has transpired in the nation’s capital, and he’s likely looking for a team to begin his second act.

At age 32, Kerrigan probably has some quarterback terrorism left in the tank — although his role was diminished in Washington with the rise of Montez Sweat and Chase Young. The Purdue alumnus routinely played 75% or more of all defensive snaps in a season throughout his career, but that dipped to a measly 38% in 2020 after his starting gig was stripped.

Since his entry into the NFL via 1st-Round pick by Washington, Kerrigan ranks fifth in the NFL in sacks (95.5 sacks) only topped by Von Miller (106.0), J.J. Watt (101.0), Justin Houston (97.5), and Chandler Jones (97.0). It should be noted, too, that Houston is a free agent as well.

Kerrigan to the Vikings would entail a reunion with quarterback Kirk Cousins. The EDGE rusher had a front-row seat to Cousins’ rise to stardom, blossoming his reputation while Cousins was working to overthrow Robert Griffin III for the QB1 title. Cousins succeeded — and then joined the Vikings about three years later.

NFC EAST

WASHINGTON

OC Scott Turner can’t wait to work with WR CURTIS SAMUEL again. WashingtonWire.com:

Curtis Samuel is the centerpiece of the Washington Football Teams’ offseason weapons upgrade.

The dynamic wideout has proven he can be a threat from anywhere on the field, giving Washington offensive coordinator Scott Turner multiple options in deploying Samuel and star Terry McLaurin together.

Turner, who was in Carolina with Samuel for two seasons — including taking over as OC after Ron Rivera was fired in 2019 — recently told the “Washington Football Talk” podcast that the receiver is “high energy” who can improve leaps and bounds, Kevin Patra of NFL.com reports.

 “You can do a lot of different things with him,” Turner said. “He’s only 24-years-old, I think he’s just scratching the surface on what he’s capable of.”

 In 2020 under Matt Rhule, Samuel proved he could be a menace anywhere on the field, including taking snaps as a running back. He compiled 77 catches for 851 yards (both career highs) and three TDs and added a career-high 41 rushes for 200 yards and two ground scores.

 It took Rhule entering the picture for the Panthers to truly unlock Samuel’s skillset. Previously, he tallied 31 combined carries under Mike Shula (2017) and Norv and Scott Turner (2018-2019).

 Now, in Washington, Turner has the blueprint to how Samuel’s versatility can be an asset. It’s the OC’s job to build upon that foundation in Washington.

 “Yeah, I’m fired up, man. Curtis is one of my all-time favorite guys,” Turner said.

AFC SOUTH

INDIANAPOLIS

T ERIC FISHER, once the first overall pick in a draft, is leaving the nest and signing with the Colts.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Colts have found a new left tackle.

According to multiple reports, Indianapolis is signing former Chiefs No. 1 overall pick Eric Fisher to a one-year, $9.4 million deal.

Fisher was a mainstay on Kansas City’s offensive line since his selection in 2013. But he tore his Achilles during the AFC Championship Game against the Bills on Jan. 24. The Chiefs then released Fisher and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz on March 11.

The Colts needed a left tackle after Anthony Castonzo elected to retire following the 2020 season. While they didn’t select a tackle in the draft, the club did sign former Charger Sam Tevi in free agency. He started 14 games at the position for L.A. last year. Prior to Fisher’s signing, he was in line to protect Carson Wentz‘s blindside.

With Fisher now in tow, Indianapolis has the No. 1 overall pick from 2013 and the No. 2 overall pick from 2016 on its roster. The Colts also drafted Andrew Luck at No. 1 overall back in 2012.

THIS AND THAT

ALL-PAID

Anthony Holzman-Escareno of NFL.com tells us who the highest paid players are at each position going into 2021:

The 2021 NFL All-Paid Team is a collection of the highest-paid players in the league at each position. It’s essentially an All-Pro team, but the pocketbook supersedes pedigree and production for the day.

Average per year (APY) is the most accepted measure of comparison for player contracts, so it’s what will be used for our purposes. Also, players who received the franchise tag are ineligible, due to the fixed nature of their salaries.

If you need help understanding any of the terms in this article, please refer to our Free Agency and Contract Glossary.

NOTES: All contract information is from Over The Cap and/or Spotrac. Cap percentages are based on this year’s league-wide cap of $182.5 million.

* Denotes player was a member of a previous All-Paid Team of Tomorrow.

OFFENSE

QB Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs · 25 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $45 million

Full contract: 10 years, $450 million extension (Signed: 2020)

Guaranteed at signing: $63.1 million (14 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $22.8 million

2021 cap hit: $7.4 million (4.1 percent of 2021 salary cap)

*2020 All-Paid Team of Tomorrow member

Death, taxes and Patrick Mahomes becoming the highest-paid player in NFL history. These are things that I can say will happen with absolute certainty.

That is the beginning of Mahomes’ entry on the 2020 All-Paid Team of Tomorrow, and 2020 did indeed become the Summer of Mahomes. He signed the largest contract in NFL history, bought a part of the Kansas City Royals and got engaged to his longtime girlfriend.

Now, in terms of the contract, Mahomes did more than simply reset the market; he created an entirely new one. In many top-of-the-market deals, players surpass the previous high by a million here or there — even a $10,000 increase was enough to put one player on this list and push another player off.

Mahomes’ $450 million contract tripled the previous NFL record for total value (Matt Ryan’s $150 million deal from 2018) and increased the high-water mark for average per year by almost 30 percent (from Russell Wilson’s $35 million APY). It might be a while before we see a contract like Mahomes’ again, though the specifics of the deal — in terms of guaranteed money, specifically — left some to be desired.

Mahomes is the only player to average 300-plus passing yards per game in his career and is the highest-rated passer in NFL history (108.7). Entering his fourth season as a starter in 2021, Mahomes will look to make his third straight Super Bowl appearance.

RB Christian McCaffrey

Carolina Panthers · 24 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $16 million

Full contract: Four years, $64.1 million extension (Signed: 2020)

Guaranteed at signing: $30.1 million (46.9 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $8.2 million

2021 cap hit: $6.9 million (3.8 percent of 2021 salary cap)

Bad luck struck McCaffrey’s first year as the NFL’s highest-paid running back; he missed a majority of last season due to myriad injuries. The 2019 first-team All-Pro selection played just three games in 2020, but had 20-plus touches and scored two touchdowns in each of them. His rate production saw no decline, as he ranked top three in the league in scrimmage yards (124.7) and touchdowns per game (2.0) last year.

McCaffrey is one of the NFL’s rare three-down workhorses, leading the league in touches and scrimmage yards per game over the past three seasons. In his last healthy season (2019), McCaffrey became just the third player in NFL history with 1,000-plus rushing and receiving yards in a single season — finishing with 2,392 scrimmage yards, the third-highest total in NFL history.

Fellow 2017 draft classmate Alvin Kamara took a swing at the All-Paid Team’s top RB spot in September, but fell a little over $1 million short of the mark on a contract with an additional year in length. Ezekiel Elliott, whom McCaffrey eclipsed in April of 2020, still has the most total guarantees ($50.1 million) at the position.

WR DeAndre Hopkins

Arizona Cardinals · 28 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $27.3 million

Full contract: Two years, $54.5 million (Signed: 2020)

Guaranteed at signing: $42.8 million (78.4 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $13.8 million

2021 cap hit: $12.5 million (6.8 percent of 2021 salary cap)

I can only feel for the city of Houston when its previous head coach, Bill O’Brien, said this about trading arguably the team’s best player. The aftermath of the trade? Hopkins finished top three in the NFL in receptions (115) and receiving yards (1,407) during his first season in Arizona. O’Brien was fired four games into his first season without the star wide receiver.

Hopkins also negotiated his own two-year extension that made him the first wide receiver in NFL history to earn over $25 million annually. Then he helped Kyler Murray improve his completion percentage, pass yards, pass touchdowns and passer rating in his second season. Not only did Hopkins tie a career high with 115 receptions in 2020, but he also accounted for the highest percentage of any team’s receiving yards (34.3).

WR Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons · 32 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $22 million

Full contract: Three years, $66 million (Signed: 2019)

Guaranteed at signing: $64 million (96.7 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $15.3 million

2021 cap hit: $23.1 million (12.6 percent of 2021 salary cap)

*2019 All-Paid Team of Tomorrow member

Jones is the only wide receiver in NFL history to average 90-plus receiving yards per game in his career (95.5). He averaged 85.7 receiving yards per game in 2020, good for seventh in the NFL. However, his impact is best seen through the play of 35-year-old Matt Ryan. In a tough injury season last fall, Jones played more than 40 percent of the snaps in just seven games, and Ryan’s splits with and without him tell the story:

With Jones: 3-4 record, 67.8 comp pct, 324.3 pass YPG, 15 pass TD, 3 INT, 106.4 passer rating.

Without Jones: 1-8 record, 62.9 comp pct, 256.7 pass YPG, 11 pass TD, 8 INT, 82.9 passer rating.

To give those numbers some context, a 106.4 passer rating would be the third-highest in Ryan’s career, while 324.3 pass YPG would set a career high. An 82.9 passer rating would have been Ryan’s lowest since his second NFL season in 2009. Ryan, unsurprisingly, is just a better QB with No. 11 on the field.

WR Keenan Allen

Los Angeles Chargers · 29 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $20 million

Full contract: Four years, $80.1 million (Signed: 2020)

Guaranteed at signing: $26.5 million (33.1 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $13 million

2021 cap hit: $15.7 million (8.6 percent of 2021 salary cap)

*2020 All-Paid Team of Tomorrow honorable mention

One of four wide receivers earning $20 million per year, Allen’s average annual value is $25,000 more than Amari Cooper’s, which got him the final spot on this list. Once considered an injury risk after missing 23 games in 2015 and ’16, Allen has been sidelined for just two games in the last four seasons (both in 2020). He’s one of three players with at least 400 receptions over that span, along with DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas. Hopkins is WR1 on this squad, while Thomas was WR3 on the 2020 team (the spot Allen now holds). Allen predictably became Justin Herbert’s No. 1 target, helping the quarterback set an NFL rookie record with 31 touchdown passes in 2020.

TE George Kittle

San Francisco 49ers · 27 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $15.0 million

Full contract: Five years, $75 million (Signed: 2020)

Guaranteed at signing: $23.6 million (31.5 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $3.6 million

2021 cap hit: $5.4 million (3 percent of 2021 salary cap)

*2019 and 2020 All-Paid Team of Tomorrow member

It took the years for the tight end market to see any growth. Jimmy Graham was the NFL’s highest-paid tight end from 2014 through ’19 despite playing for three different teams (Saints, Seahawks, Packers) on two separate contracts. One reason being the Chiefs’ savvy move to extend Travis Kelce during the 2016 offseason before his string of (now five) 1,000-yard receiving seasons.

In 2020, the piper was to be paid for the Chiefs, who gave Kelce a four-year deal worth $14.3 million per season. On the same day, however, the 49ers and Kittle agreed to the five-year, $75 million pact that surpassed the former’s contract by just under $1 million a year. Kittle missed eight games last season, but still made the most of his time on the field. Only Kelce (94.4) averaged more receiving yards per game among tight ends than Kittle (79.3) in 2020.

LT Trent Williams

San Francisco 49ers · 32 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $23.1 million

Full contract: Six years, $138.1 million (Signed: 2021)

Guaranteed at signing: $40.1 million (29 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $32.3 million

2021 cap hit: $8.2 million (4.5 percent of 2021 salary cap)

*2020 All-Paid Team of Tomorrow member

That $10,000 increase this offseason mentioned in Patrick Mahomes’ entry? Williams surpassed Green Bay’s David Bakhtiari by that figure this offseason, and the latter let the former know, in good fun, that he was aware of this development.

The 49ers traded for Williams during the 2020 NFL Draft after he missed the 2019 season with Washington (the only season where he’s missed the Pro Bowl after since 2011). Williams went on to be PFF’s highest-graded overall and run-blocking offensive tackle in 2020, and San Francisco rewarded his efforts this offseason with a contract that included the highest total value, average per year and signing bonus ($30.1 million) for an offensive lineman in NFL history. However, the actual total value of the contract is inflated, especially with a $32 million base salary for a 38-year-old Williams in 2026.

LG Joe Thuney

Kansas City Chiefs · 28 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $16.0 million

Full contract: Five years, $80 million (Signed: 2021)

Guaranteed at signing: $31.9 million (39.9 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $18.1 million

2021 cap hit: $4.5 million (2.5 percent of 2021 salary cap)

*2020 All-Paid Team of Tomorrow member

Injuries along the offensive line and the Buccaneers’ pressure on Patrick Mahomes spoiled the Chiefs’ bid for back-to-back Super Bowl championships. Kansas City has remade its offensive line this offseason, and Thuney gives the Chiefs a two-time Super Bowl champion who’s never missed a start in his career and allowed just three sacks over the last three seasons, per Pro Football Focus.

C Frank Ragnow

Detroit Lions · 24 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $13.5 million

Full contract: Four years, $54 million (Signed: 2021)

Guaranteed at signing: $25.5 million (47.2 percent of contract)

2021 cash: N/A

2021 cap hit: N/A

New quarterback Jared Goff has to be pleased with his new franchise’s investment along the offensive line during the 2021 offseason. The Lions made Ragnow the NFL’s highest-paid center a week after drafting tackle Penei Sewell with the seventh overall pick in the draft. Ragnow surpassed Corey Linsley, who was the only center with a higher PFF grade than Ragnow in 2020, by $1 million per season. The 2018 first-round pick made his first Pro Bowl last season, but he couldn’t celebrate due to a fractured throat which left him unable to talk for two weeks following a Week 14 game against the Packers.

RG Brandon Brooks

Philadelphia Eagles · 31 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $14.1 million

Full contract: Four years, $56.4 million (Signed: 2019)

Guaranteed at signing: $13.3 million (23.6 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $10.5 million

2021 cap hit: $7 million (3.8 percent of 2021 salary cap)

Brooks started 48 straight games and made three Pro Bowls for the Eagles from 2017 through 2019. He earned the highest PFF grade by an offensive lineman in 2019 (92.9), but he’s also suffered three major injuries in the span of two seasons. He tore his right Achilles during the 2018 playoffs (though didn’t miss a game in 2019), suffered a dislocated shoulder during the 2019 playoffs and then missed the entire 2020 season after tearing his left Achilles.

NOTE: Brandon Scherff will earn $18.0 million with Washington in 2021 on a non-exclusive franchise tag.

RT Lane Johnson

Philadelphia Eagles · 31 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $18 million

Full contract: Four years, $72 million (Signed: 2019)

Guaranteed at signing: $25 million (34.7 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $13.7 million

2021 cap hit: $17.8 million (9.8 percent of 2021 salary cap)

Despite the disparate views on right tackles, Johnson was elite enough to be the NFL’s highest-paid offensive lineman at one point in 2019 and now ranks fifth at the position. He missed nine games in 2020 and was not selected to the Pro Bowl for the first time since the 2016 season. Jalen Hurts will hope for Johnson’s healthy return, as the Eagles allowed 65 sacks in 2020, 15 more than the next-closest teams.

DEFENSE

IDL Aaron Donald

Los Angeles Rams · 29 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $22.5 million

Full contract: Six years, $135 million (Signed: 2018)

Guaranteed at signing: $50 million (37.0 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $19.9 million

2021 cap hit: $14.4 million (7.9 percent of 2021 salary cap)

The reigning Defensive Player of the Year remains the NFL’s most dominant presence. Only three players in the history of the league have won the award three times: Donald, J.J. Watt and Lawrence Taylor. After a dominant regular season, the NFL’s No. 1 scoring and total defense in 2020 regressed in the playoffs as Donald struggled to stay on the field due to a rib injury.

As an interior defensive lineman, Donald has 10-plus sacks in five of his last six seasons, and he’s the only player in the NFL to be named an All-Pro and Pro Bowler in each of the last six seasons. (Donald earned a Pro Bowl bid but not All-Pro honors as a rookie in 2014.) He’s also been PFF’s highest-graded defensive player in each of the last five seasons.

Donald has gone from the NFL’s highest-paid defensive player (and first to make $20 million annually) to a legit value in the span of three seasons, with Joey Bosa now making $4.5 million more per year. Donald’s defensive NFL record $40 million signing bonus has allowed the Rams to create immediate cap relief by restructuring his contract, as they did this offseason.

IDL DeForest Buckner

Indianapolis Colts · 27 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $21 million

Full contract: Four years, $84 million (Signed: 2020)

Guaranteed at signing: $39.4 million (46.9 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $17 million

2021 cap hit: $17 million (9.3 percent of 2021 salary cap)

After trading the 13th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft to the 49ers for Buckner, the Colts made him the NFL’s second-highest-paid interior defensive lineman. The 49ers, on the other hand, drafted Javon Kinlaw 14th overall (after trading back with the Buccaneers), who contributed 1.5 sacks and four QB hits in 14 games.

The Waianae, Hawaii, native (shout out to the 808) is a physical force who helped transform the Colts into a top-10 scoring and total defense; he led Indianapolis in sacks (9.5), QB hits (26) and tackles for loss (10) in 2020. His QB hit total set a new career high and ranked fourth among interior defensive lineman in 2020, and Buckner was named first-team All-Pro for the first time.

EDGE Joey Bosa

Los Angeles Chargers · 25 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $27 million

Full contract: Five years, $135 million (Signed: 2020)

Guaranteed at signing: $78.0 million (57.8 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $13.8 million

2021 cap hit: $20.8 million (11.4 percent of 2021 salary cap)

*2020 All-Paid Team of Tomorrow member

Football is in Bosa’s blood. He’s the son (John), brother (Nick, who will find himself on this team soon enough) and nephew (Eric Kumerow) of first-round NFL draft picks. He attended NFL factory St. Thomas Aquinas High School in Fort Lauderdale and played his college ball at recent pass-rusher hotbed Ohio State. Is it really a surprise that Bosa became the NFL’s highest-paid defensive player last summer? Or that he is the first such player to receive either $100-plus million in partial guarantees or $70-plus million in full guarantees.

Bosa has missed 13 games over the last three seasons, including four in 2020. Despite recording just 7.5 sacks in 12 games, Bosa finished with the second-highest quarterback pressure percentage (15.6) in the NFL (according to Next Gen Stats, minimum 150 pass rush snaps). He’s been selected to the Pro Bowl in three of the last four seasons.

EDGE Myles Garrett

Cleveland Browns · 25 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $25 million

Full contract: Five years, $125 million (Signed: 2020)

Guaranteed at signing: $50 million (40 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $21.7 million

2021 cap hit: $9.4 million (5.2 percent of 2021 salary cap)

*2020 All-Paid Team of Tomorrow member

Garrett was the NFL’s highest-paid defender for exactly two weeks before Bosa signed his extension on July 28 and surpassed him. He’s definitely been worth the price of a No. 1 overall pick. Garrett has averaged 0.83 sacks per game in his career, the most of any player in the 21st century. The three players right below him: T.J. Watt, J.J. Watt and Von Miller.

Garrett was integral to the Browns’ 2020 playoff run, as his 56 QB pressures last season trailed only Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald (71). If his appearance at the 2021 NFL Draft is any indication, no weight will be spared in Garrett’s preparation for the 2021 season.

LB Bobby Wagner

Seattle Seahawks · 30 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $18.0 million

Full contract: Three years, $54.0 million (Signed: 2019)

Guaranteed at signing: $24.5 million (45.4 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $13.4 million

2021 cap hit: $17.2 million (9.4 percent of 2021 salary cap)

If Wagner and the Seahawks’ “Legion of Boom” defense were a meme, it would definitely be the overly used one with Will Smith in an empty living room during a scene from The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air. Seattle ranked top five in scoring and total defense in each of Wagner’s first five seasons; the ‘Hawks haven’t cracked the top 10 in either category in any of the last four seasons.

The last remnant of one of history’s greatest units, Wagner has been the league’s best middle linebacker for over half a decade. Nine inside linebackers have made seven or more Pro Bowls in his first nine NFL seasons. The list includes six Pro Football Hall of Famers, Patrick Willis, Luke Kuechly and Wagner.

LB C.J. Mosley

New York Jets · 28 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $17 million

Full contract: Five years, $85 million (Signed: 2019)

Guaranteed at signing: $43 million (50.6 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $6 million

2021 cap hit: $7.5 million (4.1 percent of 2021 salary cap)

The Jets’ return on investment on Mosley’s contract has been less than desired thus far. However, an injury and pandemic are to blame for Mosley missing 30 of 32 games since signing his $85 million contract in 2019. The total value and fully guaranteed money are still the bar in the standup-linebacker market, despite being surpassed by Wagner in average per season.

Prior to joining the Jets as a free agent, the 2014 first-round pick ranked top five among linebackers in tackles, interceptions and passes defensed from 2014 through ’18. He made four Pro Bowls in his first five seasons as a member of the Ravens. Robert Saleh should have no problem finding a place for the versatile linebacker in New York.

CB Jalen Ramsey

Los Angeles Rams · 26 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $20 million

Full contract: Five years, $100 million (Signed: 2020)

Guaranteed at signing: $43.7 million (43.7 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $17.5 million

2021 cap hit: $9.7 million (5.3 percent of 2021 salary cap)

*2020 All-Paid Team of Tomorrow member

The message was clear when Ramsey pulled up to Jaguars training camp in the back of a Brinks truck in 2019: The NFL’s best cornerback was expecting to be compensated in a MAJOR way. It took a trade to the Rams, which cost Los Angeles two first-round picks and a fourth-rounder, but Ramsey finally got his well-deserved raise in September 2020.

The NFL’s first $100 million defensive back, Ramsey and fellow All-Paid Team member Aaron Donald create the core of a Rams team that finished as the league’s top scoring and total defense last season. Ramsey’s elite play in coverage continued in 2020, as he allowed a 50.0 completion percentage in coverage, tied for the second-lowest among all cornerbacks with at least 25 targets in coverage (PFF).

Ramsey is another case of the intersection between value and compensation. He’s the only defensive back to make the Pro Bowl in each of the last four seasons and has also earned two first-team All-Pro selections over that span.

CB Marlon Humphrey

Baltimore Ravens · 24 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $19.5 million

Full contract: Five years, $97.5 million (Signed: 2020)

Guaranteed at signing: $40.3 million (41.3 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $18.2 million

2021 cap hit: $10.2 million (5.6 percent of 2021 salary cap)

*2020 All-Paid Team of Tomorrow member

In the midst of his second straight Pro Bowl campaign, Humphrey signed an extension that made him the second-highest-paid defensive back in terms of total value, average per year, total guarantees and money guaranteed at signing. As the second-most-targeted defender in 2020 (103 targets in coverage, per PFF), Humphrey worked for his bag last season. Another physical, man-coverage corner always looking to make a play, Humphry led the NFL with eight forced fumbles in 2020. He was the first defensive back to lead the NFL in the category since Charles “Peanut” Tillman (creator of the “Peanut Punch”) had 10 in 2012.

CB Tre’Davious White

Buffalo Bills · 26 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $17.3 million

Full contract: Four years, $69 million (Signed: 2020)

Guaranteed at signing: $36.7 million (53.2 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $18.3 million

2021 cap hit: $6.8 million (3.7 percent of 2021 salary cap)

*2020 All-Paid Team of Tomorrow member

There was statistical regression in 2020, but it’s hard not to regress after allowing zero touchdowns and tying for the league lead with six interceptions the season prior. That’s especially true in a game that puts defenders at a disadvantage by the nature of its rule set. White’s complete body of work has been elite: Nineteen career takeaways (15 interceptions, four fumble recoveries) and 54 passes defensed each rank top five since White entered the NFL in 2017. Looking for his third straight Pro Bowl nod in 2021, White will make more cash in 2021 ($18.3 million) than any other defensive back in the league.

S Justin Simmons

Denver Broncos · 27 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $15.3 million

Full contract: Four years, $61 million (Signed: 2021)

Guaranteed at signing: $32.1 million (52.6 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $17 million

2021 cap hit: $5.8 million (3.2 percent of 2021 salary cap)

*2020 All-Paid Team of Tomorrow member

Simmons has not missed a play since the start of the 2018. Those 3,067 consecutive snaps comprise the longest active streak of any player, according to Next Gen Stats. He does far more than just show up, too. Simmons was the only player with 90-plus tackles and five-plus interceptions in 2020, and All-Pro Tyrann Mathieu (six) was the only safety with more picks.

Simmons has gone from under-the-radar starter to bona fide star in quick time, finally earning Pro Bowl recognition for the first time last season. The Broncos placed the franchise tag on Simmons for the second straight offseason, but got a deal done shortly after the start of the new league year. Simmons’ paycheck finally matches his production; his $17 million in cash paid is the most of any safety in 2021.

S Budda Baker

Arizona Cardinals · 25 years old

AVERAGE PER YEAR: $14.8 million

Full contract: Four years, $59 million (Signed: 2020)

Guaranteed at signing: $22.1 million (37.5 percent of contract)

2021 cash: $11.1 million

2021 cap hit: $7.8 million (4.3 percent of 2021 salary cap)

*2020 All-Paid Team of Tomorrow honorable mention

Baker is a versatile defender, though his presence is felt much more against the run. He ranked second among defensive backs with 64 tackles on such plays. He and Jordan Poyer were the only defensive backs with 100-plus tackles, two sacks and two interceptions last season.

The Cardinals set the expectations high by making him the league’s highest-paid safety prior to the 2020 campaign. Baker responded by making his second straight Pro Bowl and completing his full transition from All-Pro special teamer as a rookie in 2017 to All-Pro safety in 2020. In all, Baker has three Pro Bowl selections in four seasons and just turned 25 in January.

2021 DRAFT

For Matt Bowen of ESPN.com, it’s all about the fit:

One of the most underrated things about the NFL draft is that it doesn’t matter whether a prospect goes in Round 1 or Round 7 as much as which team drafts him and whether that team is a fit for his skill set and puts him in the best position to succeed.

That’s one of the biggest reasons that we see first-round busts; talented prospects sometimes land with poor fits. It’s also why we see so many late-round picks or even undrafted free agents have good pro careers; they land in a situation that fits them.

There was a ton of talent in the 2021 class, but I wanted to find my favorite fits — the prospects who landed on teams that fit them perfectly. Scheme fit and coaching are vital parts of early development and production in the league, and so I picked 10 who could thrive early below.

I also chose five of my favorite value picks, along with five more potential Day 3 steals. These are guys who weren’t first-round picks but could play early and often because of their high-end physical traits and the situation on the team that picked them. Let’s go:

Ten rookies who landed with the perfect team

Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers

Pick: Round 1, No. 3 overall (North Dakota State)

This is my favorite fit among the five first-round quarterbacks. Let’s focus on the arm talent and processing ability of Lance in Kyle Shanahan’s play-action-heavy pass game. Back in 2019, when Lance led North Dakota State to an undefeated season and the FCS national title, he averaged 10.6 yards per attempt on play-action throws, with 16 touchdown passes and no interceptions, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

The play-action mechanics jump on Lance’s college tape, and so does his decision-making. In Shanahan’s system, Lance can read it out, making layered throws to intermediate windows and attacking vertically on scripted deep-ball shots. Plus, with the physical element he brings to the position, expect Shanahan to scheme Lance on designed rushes, where he averaged 6.8 yards per carry in 2019.

The 20-year-old has a steep learning curve in the NFL, but he landed in a stellar spot with San Francisco.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Round 1, No. 5 (LSU)

Rookie quarterback Joe Burrow completed 73% of his passes — with a QBR of 90.0 — on throws inside the numbers last season. Those are the hi-lo concepts, shallows, crossers and seam balls. And with a healthy Burrow back in the mix in 2021, the Bengals can scheme up Chase, who brings a physical, competitive playing style to Cincinnati and easy juice after the catch in the open field.

During his time at LSU, Chase averaged 4.1 yards after contact per reception — the highest career mark of any Power 5 wide receiver over the past 10 seasons. He’s a difference-maker with the ball in his hands who can also be targeted by Burrow on slot fades, deep in-breakers and outside verticals to complement wide receivers Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in the Bengals’ 11 personnel sets.

With A.J. Green no longer in Cincy, Chase could be the most-targeted pass-catcher as a rookie.

Jamin Davis, LB, Washington Football Team

Pick: Round 1, No. 19 (Kentucky)

Davis is an ascending talent, a 6-foot-4, 234-pound linebacker with three-down ability who should see some free access to the ball behind one of the NFL’s best defensive fronts in Washington. That will allow him play sideline to sideline, cutting off the ball on edge schemes, while Washington can use his second-level range and coverage skills in sub-package personnel.

Davis, who logged 102 total tackles and three interceptions last season, has the length and short-area speed to muddy throwing windows in the middle of the field. And I expect Washington — a defense that had a 31.2% blitz rate in 2020 — to deploy him as a rusher in pressure schemes.

Christian Darrisaw, OT, Minnesota Vikings

Pick: Round 1, No. 23 (Virginia Tech)

I really liked the tape on Darrisaw because of his easy movement skills in both the run and pass game. Watch him reach block or climb on zone schemes, which is an ideal fit for the Minnesota run game with Dalvin Cook. Create an edge for Cook to bounce the ball, or wall off linebackers at the second level to open up daylight on cutback runs. Plus, with his long frame and balance in pass protection, Darrisaw has the skills to mirror in space or drop his anchor against power rushers.

The Vikings got great value here — they traded back from No. 14 and added extra third-round picks — and also upgraded the offensive line with a player who fits their offensive identity.

Greg Newsome II, CB, Cleveland Browns

Pick: Round 1, No. 26 (Northwestern)

Last season, Cleveland played Cover 1 (man-free) on 28.1% of its coverage snaps, while also showing Cover 3 (27.6%) and quarters (18.9%) coverages. That’s a fit for the versatile Newsome, who has long speed and can match up in both man and zone schemes in the Browns’ defensive structure. He’s a smooth technician who can play press or pedal/bail to stick in coverage from an off-man position.

That transition speed to drive on the throw pops here, and so does his ability to compete and create on-the-ball production. The Browns could also “lock” Newsome in coverage to backside of 3×1 sets in their single-high and split-field zone coverages given his matchup and scheme versatility. This team has targeted its struggling secondary this offseason, drafting Newsome and bringing in a new safety (John Johnson III) and slot corner (Troy Hill) as starters.

Odafe Oweh, OLB, Baltimore Ravens

Pick: Round 1, No. 31 (Penn State)

Oweh didn’t record a sack last season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if 6-foot-5, 257 pound outside linebacker leads all rookies in pass-rush production given his explosive traits and the versatile fronts we see in Baltimore. This is a great fit for Oweh, who can be schemed as a rusher to use his high-end bend in a pro defense.

Create the one-on-ones here, use twists/loops to get him open rush lanes and set-up Oweh in the Ravens pressure packages. Last season, Baltimore had a blitz rate of 40.3%, the second highest in the league behind Pittsburgh. This is where Oweh can deployed from various alignments on the defensive front. With Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue both leaving the Ravens in free agency, there are plenty of pass-rushing snaps to fill.

Christian Barmore, DT, New England Patriots

Pick: Round 2, No. 36 (Alabama)

I see alignment versatility with Barmore in the New England defense. He had eight sacks last season, and he can play as a nose, 3-technique defensive tackle or align as a 5-technique end. That fits in a Patriots system that will scheme interior stunts, slants and also create matchup advantages for the 6-foot-4, 310-pounder.

You can see the upfield juice on tape with Barmore here, and he won’t play from stagnant alignments with the Patriots, who use titled fronts, overload looks and more. I expect Barmore to create interior disruption versus both the run and pass game in this defense.

Trevon Moehrig, S, Las Vegas Raiders

Pick: Round 2, No. 43 (TCU)

With coordinator Gus Bradley now running the defense in Vegas, the Raiders needed a safety with post and split-field range to pair with Johnathan Abram. And I see that with Moehring, who can match to inside verticals from a quarters alignment or drive top-down on in-breakers to create ball production.

Only three defenders with at least 500 coverage snaps over the past two seasons broke up a higher percentage of their plays as the primary defender than Moehrig (25%). That speaks to his fit in Bradley’s Cover 3/split-safety scheme, while also pointing to his coverage traits when spinning down over the slot. And with the Raiders releasing veteran Jeff Heath last week, expect Moehrig to play early and often.

Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, Carolina Panthers

Pick: Round 2, No. 59 (LSU)

Paired with Joe Brady, his former college coordinator at LSU, Marshall is a tremendous fit in the Carolina pass game. Marshall had 48 receptions in seven games last season, with 22 of those catches on shallows/crossers. And that’s how I expect Brady to scheme him up in the pros. Run the Michael Thomas route tree to work the middle of the field from the slot, and then attack vertically on seams and corners with his 6-foot-2, 205-pound frame.

Marshall should compete for the WR3 role in Carolina, next to DJ Moore and Robby Anderson. There’s matchup ability with Marshall inside, plus the catch-and-run traits to produce on defined throws for new starting quarterback Sam Darnold.

Amari Rodgers, WR, Green Bay Packers

Pick: Round 3, No. 85 (Clemson)

Regardless of who is taking the snaps at quarterback for the Packers, Rodgers has the traits to fit as a motion/movement player in Matt LaFleur’s system. The Packers used motion on 52% of offensive snaps last season, with 21% of motion coming at the snap. That’s where LaFleur can cater to Rodgers’ physical style and short-area juice on manufactured touches — fly sweeps, screens, reverses and backfield touches — off misdirection given his 5-foot-10, 212-pound frame.

Plus, Rodgers can also be schemed a slot target, with the straight-line speed to threaten defenses vertically, to pair with Davante Adams in the Packers’ route tree.

Five value picks who could make an early impact

Azeez Ojulari, OLB, New York Giants

Pick: Round 2, No. 50 (Georgia)

I saw Ojulari as a late Day 1 pick given his quicks off the ball and the ability to bend and close to the quarterback. I believe Ojulari, who had 8.5 sacks against SEC competition last season, has a high ceiling as a pass-rusher, plus the skills to play off contact versus the run game. The fit works here, too, for defensive coordinator Patrick Graham in New York. Run twist stunts with Ojulari and veteran Leonard Williams. Scheme him up in one of the more multiple NFL systems we see on tape.

Andre Cisco, S, Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Round 3, No. 65 (Syracuse)

Cisco is coming off a knee injury, but his ball production is a boost for the Jaguars’ defense; he had 13 interceptions in 24 college games. Cisco has easy range from the post, with the ability to track the ball vertically. He can also play as a half-field defender to overlap boundary throws.

The Jags landed a safety with playmaking traits at the top of the third round. That’s smart value for a team that has upgraded the secondary through free agency and the draft under new coach Urban Meyer.

Chazz Surratt, LB, Minnesota Vikings

Pick: Round 3, No. 78 (North Carolina)

With veteran linebacker Eric Wilson leaving Minnesota in free agency, Surratt has an opportunity to compete for that weakside linebacker spot next to Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr. The pursuit speed jumps here with Surratt, and so does his ability to match underneath in coverage and close downhill on the ball.

I also like what I see from Surratt as a schemed blitzer. The converted quarterback had 12.5 sacks over his past two seasons at UNC, and the physical traits here are a fit for Mike Zimmer’s defense at the second level.

Trey Sermon, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Pick: Round 3, No. 88 (Ohio State)

The 49ers will use multiple backs under Shanahan, but Sermon has the upside of a RB1 given his pro running style in a zone-heavy system. Go to Sermon’s tape versus Northwestern and Clemson last season. That’s where we saw his ability to find daylight, using his one-cut running style on outside zone schemes, plus the contact balance — which is a critical factor at the position.

Sermon broke 24 tackles and averaged 3.64 yards after first contact last season. The 49ers got solid value here for a back who can handle volume in the pros.

Elijah Molden, DB, Tennessee Titans

Pick: Round 3, No. 100 (Washington)

Molden, who had four interceptions and three forced fumbles two seasons ago, can be a tone-setter in the league. He’s a versatile defensive back who has game speed and instincts to find the football, and he can play as a slot corner or safety in a Tennessee defensive scheme that utilizes late movement and disguise. That will allow the Titans to spin Molden post-snap from various alignments as a sub-package defender who can play in space and tackle in the run game.

Five potential Day 3 steals who could overperform

Jordan Smith, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Round 4, No. 121 (UAB)

I watched the tape on Smith early in the draft process because he has the tools to develop into a productive edge rusher. With a long, 6-foot-6 frame, Smith has upside under pro coaching. He needs to develop hand usage/counters and add more upper-body strength. The Jags are betting on the ceiling with Smith, and I would do the same for a team that needs more pass-rush production off the edge.

Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Pick: Round 5, No. 150 (Memphis)

Gainwell is a dual-threat running back who can be deployed like Austin Ekeler in the Eagles’ system. Gainwell caught 51 passes for 651 yards in 2019 before he opted out of last season. He’s a patient route runner who can release from the backfield or flex outside to run crossers, corners and fades.

The Eagles signed Kerryon Johnson after the draft, but that shouldn’t affect Gainwell’s role in Philly. New coach Nick Sirianni can use two-back personnel with both Gainwell and Miles Sanders on the field at the same time to create schematic advantages in the game plan.

Ihmir Smith-Marsette, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Pick: Round 5, No. 157 (Iowa)

Smith-Marsette brings a vertical element to the Vikings’ play-action pass game on deep overs, crossers and go balls. He produced 24 explosive-play receptions during his college career (receptions of 20 or more yards), and you can see the straight-line speed on tape. In Minnesota, Smith-Marsette should be in a position to compete for the WR3 role opposite Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

Plus, with his kick-return ability, Smith-Marsette brings some juice to the Vikings’ special teams as well.

Hamsah Nasirildeen, S/LB, New York Jets

Pick: Round 6, No. 186 (Florida State)

The 6-foot-3 Nasirildeen has the physical traits to find a role in Robert Saleh’s defense as a hybrid linebacker/sub-package defender. I see “forward ability” on the tape with Nasirildeen — he drops to depth and explodes downhill on the ball. That fits today’s game with rangy, dime/nickel defenders who can play in space. Nasirildeen also has the speed to develop quickly as a special-teams coverage player in New York.

Trey Smith, G, Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: Round 6, No. 226 (Tennessee)

The Chiefs added offensive line depth and a potential future starter with Smith late in the sixth round. At 6-foot-6, 321 pounds, he is a mauler in the run game, a blocker who can move defenders off the ball — and finish them. Plus, with enough movement ability and strength/power to win in pass pro, Smith can develop into an interior presence to keep the pocket clean for quarterback Patrick Mahomes.