Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the consensus favorite to win the 2020 NFL MVP award, with Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson on his heels.

At Caesars Sportsbook, Mahomes is 4-1 to win what would be his second regular-season MVP award in the past three years. Jackson, last season’s MVP, is 13-2 at Caesars to win the award again this year.

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is next at 9-1, followed by Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson at 12-1.

Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey, at 40-1, has the shortest odds of any non-quarterback. Eleven quarterbacks have shorter odds than McCaffrey’s, including Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (16-1), Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (16-1), New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (20-1) and Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (25-1).

The last non-quarterback to win the award was then-Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson in 2012. Overall, 16 running backs have won the Associated Press NFL MVP, compared to 42 quarterbacks. No receiver has won the award.

“This is a very, very hard award for someone who doesn’t play quarterback or running back to win,” said Jeff Davis, director of risk for Caesars Sportsbook. “If a receiver has a big year, it’s generally given to the quarterback. Given the way the league has turned to a passing, quarterback-centric league, for a running back to win, it would take a Herculean effort.”

The NFL has had a run of long-shot MVPs, with four of the past five winners having odds longer than 30-1, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Jackson won last season’s award after being 40-1 in the preseason, and Mahomes was 35-1 to start the season before he won the 2018 MVP.

New England Patriots quarterback Jarrett Stidham and Cincinnati Bengals rookie quarterback Joe Burrow, the No. 1 overall pick, are both 75-1.

We would think RUSSELL WILSON at 12-1 might be a good bet.

DALLAS

The Cowboys have only watched the cost of signing QB DAK PRESCOTT grow and grow.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

The recent explosion in quarterback contracts has made one dynamic incredibly clear: The longer a team waits to pay a quarterback, the more expensive it will be.

That’s what the Cowboys currently are facing with Dak Prescott, a fourth-round pick in 2016 who has started 64 of 64 regular-season games and who now carries a franchise tender with a value of $31.4 million for 2020. The Cowboys want to pay him, they’ve tried to pay him, and the inability to get him paid has made the contract more and more and more expensive.

Whatever the team was willing to offer at the outset of the 2019 season, the price tag escalated as Prescott made it through another 16 games and, in turn, escaped his four-year rookie deal without injury. Now, the dynamics of the tag ($69 million for two seasons and then a potential Kirk Cousins-style shot at the open market) make it a lot easier for Prescott to request, and eventually to receive, $35 million or more per year.

It all could have been avoided, and teams that will be dealing with similar situations should use the Cowboys’ current conundrum as a cautionary tale for their own potential “good problem to have” — a young quarterback who becomes eligible for a second contract.

The best approach, especially for a player who wasn’t selected in round one and who has only a four-year contract, would be to make the player an offer the day after the final game of his third regular season. That’s when, by rule, the window opens for a player to sign a second contract. (A surprising number of highly-compensated team employees and agents aren’t aware of this.)

If the Cowboys had approached Prescott after a Week 17 2018 win over the Giants and before the wild-card game against the Seahawks with, say, a five-year deal that would have paid Prescott $27.5 million per year (i.e., the Jimmy Garoppolo deal), maybe Prescott would have taken it. While the new-money analysis would have resulted in reports that Prescott actually signed a four-year extension with a new-money average value of $33.8 million, it would have been a five-year, $27.5 million contract from signing.

Fast forward 16 months, and Dak reportedly wants a deal worth more than $35 million per year from signing. That’s a $7.5 million bump, per year. That’s $37.5 million on a five-year deal. And that’s a direct result of the Cowboys not getting a deal done the moment the window opened on signing Prescott to a second contract but instead waiting and waiting and waiting and, consequently, watching it all get more and more expensive.

“As money gets bigger, deals get harder,” Cowboys executive Stephen Jones told #PFTPM on Friday. The Dak money got a lot bigger because the Cowboys didn’t do a deal when it would have been easier. And the longer they wait, the harder it’s going to get.

PHILADELPHIA

RB CARLOS HYDE to the Eagles?

The Eagles might be looking to add a veteran running back to their depth chart.

The Eagles are interested in former Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde, according to Adam Caplan of Inside the Birds (h/t Bleeding Green Nation). During the latest episode of the ITB podcast, Caplan said the Eagles are “targeting” Hyde as a potential free-agent addition.

Hyde would provide a “power” complement to starting running back Miles Sanders’ shifty style in the backfield. Hyde is set to turn 30 in September, but he has been mostly used in running back rotations, so his durability shouldn’t be a concern.

Hyde is coming off his first career 1,000-yard rushing season. He signed with the Kansas City Chiefs last offseason but was traded to the Texans before the season began. Hyde ended up playing in all 16 games (14 starts) last season, producing 1,070 rushing yards and six touchdowns.

Despite his career season, he hasn’t received a lot of interest in free agency. The Eagles would probably sign him to a cheap deal and let him compete with Sanders and Boston Scott for playing time. The Eagles chose not to select a running back in the draft, and instead, signed two undrafted rookies, Adrian Killins and Michael Warren. The Eagles also have Elijah Holyfield and the recently re-signed Corey Clement at the position. The team typically brings 7-8 running backs to training camp and their current number is six.

Hyde’s background with the Chiefs would help him adjust to the Eagles’ system. Like Jordan Howard before him, Hyde is a power back who thrives when given consistent touches. While he isn’t known for his receiving ability, he did catch 59 passes during his final year with the 49ers in 2017. He caught three touchdown passes in 2016.

Hyde would clearly fill the void left behind by Howard, who signed with the Miami Dolphins in free agency. While he doesn’t have the career production that Howard had before arriving in Philadelphia, Hyde offers a similar style and complement to Sanders and Scott.

ATLANTA

Sun Sep. 13             Seattle Seahawks                1:00pm ET             FOX

Sun Sep. 20             at Dallas Cowboys               1:00pm ET             FOX

Sun Sep. 27             Chicago Bears                     1:00pm ET             FOX

Mon Oct. 5               at Green Bay Packers          8:15pm ET             ESPN

Sun Oct. 11              Carolina Panthers                1:00pm ET             FOX

Sun Oct. 18              at Minnesota Vikings            1:00pm ET             FOX

Sun Oct. 25              Detroit Lions                         1:00pm ET             FOX

Thurs Oct. 29            at Carolina Panthers            8:20pm ET             FOX/NFLN/Amazon

Sun Nov. 8                Denver Broncos                   1:00pm ET             CBS

Sun Nov. 15              BYE

Sun Nov. 22              at New Orleans Saints         1:00pm ET             FOX

Sun Nov. 29              Las Vegas Raiders              1:00pm ET             CBS

Sun Dec. 6                New Orleans Saints             1:00pm ET             FOX

Sun Dec. 13              at Los Angeles Chargers      4:25pm ET            FOX

Sun Dec. 20              Tampa Bay Buccaneers       1:00pm ET            FOX

Sun Dec. 27              at Kansas City Chiefs           1:00pm ET            FOX

Sun Jan. 3                 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers    1:00pm ET           FOX

SCHEDULE THOUGHTS

The Falcons get two primetime games – one that seems kind of obligatory on Thursday at Carolina…Everything else is early in the afternoon local time…In what was once normal, but is now unusual, all their Sunday games are on the “proper” network with 12 on FOX…The Buccaneers don’t show up until Week 15!…All of their division games are in self-contained pods – two in four weeks with Carolina in October, two in three weeks with New Orleans around Thanksgiving and two in three weeks with TB and TB at the end…They march off home-away, home-away for the first 10 games, then two at home and three of the last four on the road…Four of the last eight games are with the AFC West, the other four are division games…The four NFC North games come in a span of five weeks early in the season.

CAROLINA

Sun Sep. 13             Las Vegas Raiders                1:00pm ET            CBS

Sun Sep. 20            at Tampa Bay Buccaneers    1:00pm ET           FOX

Sun Sep. 27            at Los Angeles Chargers       4:05pm ET           CBS

Sun Oct. 4               Arizona Cardinals                  1:00pm ET            FOX

Sun Oct. 11            at Atlanta Falcons                  1:00pm ET            FOX

Sun Oct. 18            Chicago Bears                       1:00pm ET            FOX

Sun Oct. 25             at New Orleans Saints           1:00pm ET           FOX

Thurs Oct. 29          Atlanta Falcons                       8:20pm ET          FOX/NFLN/Amazon

Sun Nov. 8              at Kansas City Chiefs             1:00pm ET           FOX

Sun Nov. 15            Tampa Bay Buccaneers         1:00pm ET           FOX

Sun Nov. 22            Detroit Lions                           1:00pm ET           FOX

Sun Nov. 29            at Minnesota Vikings              1:00pm ET           FOX

Sun Dec. 6              BYE

Sun Dec. 13            Denver Broncos                      1:00pm ET          CBS

St/Sn Dec. 19/20    at Green Bay Packers             Time TBA

Sun Dec. 27             at Washington Redskins         1:00pm ET          CBS

Sun Jan. 3                New Orleans Saints                 1:00pm ET         FOX

Have there ever been byes as late as December 6?…That is Week 13, so it comes after 12 games…Everything except the Thursday night game with Atlanta is early local time…The game at Washington flips over to CBS for some reason…Four division games in six weeks in the middle of the season and only one in the last seven weeks and that in Week 17…Very balanced in terms of home and away with the same number after all the even games.

NEW ORLEANS

Sun Sep. 13             Tampa Bay Buccaneers          4:25pm ET         FOX

Mon Sep. 21             at Las Vegas Raiders             8:15pm ET          ESPN

Sun Sep. 27             Green Bay Packers                 8:20pm ET          NBC

Sun Oct. 4                at Detroit Lions                        1:00pm ET          FOX

Mon Oct. 12              Los Angeles Chargers            8:15pm ET          ESPN

Sun Oct. 18              BYE

Sun Oct. 25               Carolina Panthers                    1:00pm ET         FOX

Sun Nov. 1                 at Chicago Bears                    4:25pm ET         FOX

Sun Nov. 8                at Tampa Bay Buccaneers      8:20pm ET         NBC

Sun Nov. 15              San Francisco 49ers               4:25pm ET         FOX

Sun Nov. 22              Atlanta Falcons                       1:00pm ET         FOX

Sun Nov. 29              at Denver Broncos                   4:05pm ET        FOX

Sun Dec. 6                at Atlanta Falcons                    1:00pm ET         FOX

Sun Dec. 13             at Philadelphia Eagles              4:25pm ET        FOX

Sun Dec. 20             Kansas City Chiefs                   4:25pm ET        CBS

Fri Dec. 25               Minnesota Vikings                     4:30pm ET        FOX/NFLN/Amazon

Sun Jan. 3               at Carolina Panthers                  1:00pm ET        FOX

SCHEDULE THOUGHTS

The Saints collect four primetime games in their first seven, but then zip the rest of the way after visiting Tampa Bay on Week 9…That said, we have our eye on Sunday, December 6 when we could see Saints at Falcons as a better game than Denver at Kansas City which is on the announced NBC Sunday night schedule…It’s not technically a primetime game, but we would expect lots of eyeballs on Minnesota at New Orleans late Christmas afternoon which could be the last game for Drew Brees in the Superdome…Plus New Orleans has five 4:25 games, all but one (at Chicago on November 1) of which would seem to be ticketed for a national audience…The Saints have a three-game road trip starting on November 29^th in Denver…That Broncos meeting is the sandwich game between two meetings with the Falcons…The Saints have that Christmas game on Friday as part of the FOX “Thursday” package, but do not actually play on a Thursday.

TAMPA BAY

Sun Sep. 13            at New Orleans Saints                4:25pm ET        FOX

Sun Sep. 20            Carolina Panthers                      1:00pm ET        FOX

Sun Sep. 27            at Denver Broncos                     4:25pm ET        FOX

Sun Oct. 4               Los Angeles Chargers               1:00pm ET        CBS

Thurs Oct. 8            at Chicago Bears                       8:20pm ET        FOX/NFLN/Amazon

Sun Oct. 18             Green Bay Packers                    4:25pm ET        FOX

Sun Oct. 25             at Las Vegas Raiders                8:20pm ET        NBC

Mon Nov. 2              at New York Giants                   8:15pm ET        ESPN

Sun Nov. 8              New Orleans Saints                   8:20pm ET        NBC

Sun Nov. 15            at Carolina Panthers                  1:00pm ET        FOX

Mon Nov. 23           Los Angeles Rams                     8:15pm ET        ESPN

Sun Nov. 29            Kansas City Chiefs                     4:25pm ET        CBS

Sun Dec. 6              BYE

Sun Dec. 13            Minnesota Vikings                      1:00pm ET        FOX

Sun Dec. 20            at Atlanta Falcons                       1:00pm ET       FOX

St/Sn Dec 26/28      at Detroit Lions                           Time TBA ET

Sun Jan. 3               Atlanta Falcons                           1:00pm ET       FOX

SCHEDULE NOTES

Yes, the five primetime games represent a franchise season record (we see four in 2002 and four in 2003)…In addition, there are three 4:25 games that will go to most of the nation (the Week 3 game at Denver probably plays second fiddle to Cowboys at Seahawks)…And in Week 16, they could get a featured NFL Network Saturday game if the Lions cooperate by being decent…Counting a big FOX America’s Game of the Week against the Packers, the Buccaneers will be nationally exposed in five straight weeks starting on October 8 and six of seven…They have the combination of a Week 13 bye and the Falcons twice in the final three games.

ARIZONA

Uh oh.  The thing that makes rookie S/LB/EDGE ISAIAH SIMMONS unique, exceptional and amazing is his ability to excel at any position on the field.  So the Cardinals are going to have him in the same spot if this from Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com is to be believed.

The Arizona Cardinals were impressed with Isaiah Simmons’ ability to learn and play five positions at Clemson. But now Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury wants to see how his first-round pick will fare at one position.

Kingsbury doubled down on limiting Simmons, whom Arizona took eighth overall in last month’s NFL draft, to just one role during a video conference call with reporters on Monday.

“Our thought process, is if he is really able to focus on one position, having the flexibility to still move around, but really focus on one, what does that look like?” Kingsbury said. “And the sky can really be the limit.

“That’s why we were so excited about him. The athleticism is through the roof. But his ability to play different positions and not really have any chance to focus on one, we just think the sky can be the limit for what he could be if we really lock him into one position the majority of the time.”

Last season, Simmons, the 2019 ACC Defensive Player of the Year and Butkus Award winner, played 303 snaps at cornerback, 218 at safety, 160 at outside linebacker and 121 at inside linebacker.

On April 28, Cardinals defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said Simmons will be a linebacker in Arizona but will be used in various other roles, particularly to defend tight ends, on a snap-by-snap basis.

After the Cardinals took Simmons, general manager Steve Keim called Simmons an “eraser” because of his ability to be a “Swiss Army knife” and fix mistakes made on defense.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Lindsay Thiry of ESPN.com moves over from the Rams beat to look at Chargers LB KENNETH MURRAY:

Kenneth Murray buried his head into hands, then began to cry.

The former Oklahoma linebacker sat in the living room of his childhood home in Missouri City, Texas, surrounded by family members who simultaneously erupted in celebration.

“It was just crazy energy once I got the call,” Murray said. “Emotional. It’s been a long time coming for us.”

The call, just moments earlier, was from Los Angeles Chargers general manager Tom Telesco, who informed Murray that the Chargers were selecting him with the No. 23 overall pick in the NFL draft.

“It just really took me all by surprise,” Murray said on draft night. “I just couldn’t control my emotions.”

For the Chargers, the selection of Murray was part of a carefully executed plan.

After selecting Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert with the No. 6 overall pick, the Bolts weren’t scheduled to pick again until the second round at No. 37 overall. But as Murray remained available later into the first round, the Chargers took to the phones to find a trade partner. The New England Patriots sent the Bolts the No. 23 overall pick in exchange for second- and third-round selections.

“He’s a guy that we had our eyes on, we had a plan,” Chargers coach Anthony Lynn said. “He plays this game like old-school linebackers … Also, he has that leadership, those intangibles that I really like in a young man.”

Murray is strong, long, fast, and physical, according to Lynn, and has the traits to lead a defense.

“When you tie that in with what he’s done off the football field, and the type of person he is,” Lynn said. “He was just one of my favorite players in the draft, to be honest with you.”

Murray’s father, Kenneth Sr., is a Baptist pastor. His mother, Dianne, is a retired police officer. When Murray was 11 years old, his parents adopted three children with special needs to join Kenneth and his biological sister, making a family of seven.

“It’s made me extremely selfless and also has taught me what gratitude is,” Murray said. “Just taught me to be grateful for the little things in life.”

Murray’s younger brothers, Lenny and James, are non-verbal and Lenny is confined to a wheelchair. His adopted sister, Nyia, is able to speak but has difficulty reading at 19 years old.

Murray has long found joy in carrying his brothers around, given they’re vastly undersized for their ages. He’s found joy in watching sports with them and has endless appreciation for his parents, who have tirelessly set a caring example.

– – –

We missed this when it happened a couple of weeks ago, but Pep Hamilton, once a coaching nova, then banished to the XFL, has an important job with the Chargers.

The Los Angeles Chargers have hired Pep Hamilton as quarterbacks coach, a source confirmed to ESPN.

Hamilton, 45, most recently was the head coach of the XFL’s DC Defenders.

He has extensive coaching experience in the NFL, most recently with the Cleveland Browns, where he was assistant head coach/offense in 2016. Before that he was the Indianapolis Colts’ offensive coordinator from 2013 to ’15.

Hamilton fills the role held the past four seasons by Shane Steichen, who was promoted to offensive coordinator for the 2020 season.

INDIANAPOLIS

This makes it sound like QB PHILIP RIVERS had other significant opportunities than the Colts, something we frankly doubt.  Nick Shook of NFL.com:

Philip Rivers doesn’t have a ton of time left in his NFL career, so when it came time to choose his next destination, he selected one that would protect him better than most.

After several years spent playing behind a porous offensive line in Los Angeles, Rivers saw the big uglies in Indianapolis and signed on the dotted line. He won’t be around forever, but at least he can plan on not getting hit as much.

“The big part of Philip being here is Anthony Castonzo. Quenton Nelson,” Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni said Monday. “Ryan Kelly. Braden Smith. Mark Glowinski. Those guys are studs”

“That’s something that he just kept mentioning after we signed him of how valuable those guys were to him.”

That group finished as the No. 3 offensive line in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus’ position group rankings. Thanks to continuity across the board (personnel, coaches, play-calling), the Colts have thrived and are equipped to give any signal-caller ample time to work.

The Chargers, meanwhile, ranked 29th in the NFL in the same category, per PFF. Russell Okung’s absence forced the Chargers to shuffle players, resulting in inconsistency and nearly constant harassment of Rivers. Tackles Trent Scott and Sam Tevi combined to allow 88 pressures in 2019, second most of any tackle duo in the NFL, per PFF.

Rivers can rest assured he won’t face that type of pressure in 2020. That alone is worth a move to a cold-weather city, especially where the team plays mostly indoors.

Who else would have the Colts been competing against?  The Buccaneers were focused on Brady.  We haven’t heard that the Panthers were interested.  Chicago?

MIAMI

When the NFL gets going again, QB TUA TAGOVIALOA is all set.  Nick Shook ofNFL.com:

Purchase those No. 1 jerseys with confidence, Dolphins fan, because Tua Tagovailoa has signed on the dotted line.

The quarterback has agreed to terms with Miami on his rookie contract, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Monday. The contract is a four-year deal worth $30.28 million and includes a fifth-year option and a signing bonus of $19.6 million. The pact is fully guaranteed, Rapoport added.

These contracts aren’t all that much to write home about anymore, as we’re more than a decade removed from the olden days of rookie deals, when the highly touted newcomers could leverage their newfound value and hold out for more money. Some holdouts lasted into training camp back then, but with both the last collective bargaining agreement and the new CBA ratified in March, rookie salaries have since been relegated to a slotting system. Tagovailoa’s place as the No. 5 overall pick scheduled him to be paid the aforementioned total. All that’s left to figure out is the size of a signing bonus and the language of the contract.

With the financials sorted out, Tagovailoa can proceed forward on his path to filling Miami’s franchise quarterback role.

NEW ENGLAND

Interesting.  QB TOM BRADY was no longer BFF with Josh McDaniels in 2019.  Longtime NFL Insider Gary Myers (who probably has a good enough relationship with either Tom Brady or Bill Belichick that we can consider them likely sources) offered this Twitter thread on Monday:

@GaryMyersNY

Level 1:

Hard to present an order of why Tom Brady didn’t want to return to Patriots. But one thing has been very much overlooked, according to an excellent source: His deteriorating relationship with OC Josh McDaniels. Tom was worn out by Josh after all these years. That surprised me.

Level 2:

They made seem they were brothers fighting after sideline blowups. Worse than that. Brady also wanted more input into game plan. Also, he knew it was final season in NE & said when he didn’t trust WRs, didn’t throw to them. Bad look. Pats lacked reliable WR other than Edelman.

Level 3:

So, in my opinion, here’s why Brady is not in NE, in no order:

*Was worn out by Belichick. Not fun in NE

*Create competition with BB to see who could win SB without the other

*Tired of McDaniels

*Wanted more $ & more than a 1-year deal

*Talent around him diminished

*Warm weather

And this added two hours after the above three hit:

@GaryMyersNY

It’s funny how things get misinterpreted. I was not being critical of Tom Brady at all when I reported about his deteriorating relationship w/Josh McDaniels. After 6 SB rings and 9 SB  appearances, it’s there anybody who doesn’t think he deserved major input into the game plan?

We remind you that Myers wrote this book:

Brady vs. Manning: The Untold Story of the Rivalry That Transformed the NFL

by Gary Myers – Nonfiction, Sports

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are perhaps the two greatest quarterbacks of all time. But what do they actually think of each other? What are they like behind closed doors and in the locker room, and how does that influence their careers? Veteran NFL correspondent Gary Myers tackles this subject from every angle and with unprecedented access and insight, drawing on a huge number of never-before-heard interviews with Brady and Manning, their coaches, their families, and those who have played with them and against them.

That said, Brady offered a quick and vehement denial on Monday after Myers’ tweets surfaced. Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Brady made it clear he disagrees with Myers’ series of tweets earlier Monday about the reasons for the 14-time Pro Bowler’s departure from New England.

The new Buccaneers quarterback wrote his response on Instagram on Monday night, writing “Please stop this nonsense!” and “Please be more responsible with reporting.”

Brady tagged McDaniels in his Instagram response with a heart emoji and added, “19 years together and brothers for life.”

McDaniels worked on the Patriots’ staff for 16 of Brady’s 20 seasons in New England. He directly coached Brady for 13 seasons.

After Brady left for the Buccaneers, McDaniels paid tribute to Brady and the time the two spent together and all they accomplished.

“I have so much gratitude for Tom Brady,” McDaniels said, via Zack Cox of NESN. “He has made me a better coach and more importantly a better person. He has always been genuinely kind and caring to me and my family. Yet, at the same time, I have never met anyone as demanding and relentless in his pursuit of improvement, perfection and championships.

“His work ethic and drive propelled our offense and our team to perform at the very highest level throughout his career. He represented all of us with class and integrity. We will miss his passion and intensity, his character and wisdom, and his preparation and diligence. I will miss all the meetings, FaceTimes, emails and texts in our pursuit of a good play. He always performed his best in the most critical times under the most significant pressure. I have never coached a tougher player in my career.”

NEW YORK JETS

LB C.J. MOSLEY can’t believe the Jets will trade disgruntled S JAMAL ADAMS:

Jamal Adams trade rumors continue to linger in the quiet, dark space of the slow period we know as May and June in the NFL.

Teammate C.J. Mosley wants everyone to know those rumors are hogwash.

“To me, I wasn’t too worried about that,” he said, via ESPN. “That would be a crazy move.”

Yes, trading a premier safety after just three seasons does sound like a crazy move. Doing so to avoid paying him would also qualify as crazy, especially for a team that has spent much of the last decade picking in the upper half of the draft’s first round. The Jets need to accrue pieces like Adams, not trade him because of off-field disputes.

“First of all, he’s one of the leaders on the team,” Mosley said. “That’s first and foremost. He brings that extra energy whether guys want it or not. Sometimes you might be tired or not feeling good, but as soon as he steps on the field, you’re going to hear that voice and he’ll be flying around. To have that presence in the secondary, a guy that can make plays in the passing game and also plays in the backfield — in the box — that’s always exciting.”

Mosley is a similarly exciting player who wasn’t able to do all that much in his first season in New York because of a groin injury that limited him to just two games. The Jets brought in Mosley with the thought he’d be a complementary piece at the second level of the defense who could help fill out New York’s unit at all three levels.

When healthy, a defense featuring Adams and Mosley should be an intimidating one. They just need to be healthy and participating — not spending time off the field because of a dispute with management, which could come from taking calls on a player or not seeing eye to eye financially — for that to become a reality.

“Once we get everybody back, and everybody already has a year under their belts as a defense, we can take this to another level,” Mosley said.

THIS AND THAT

JOHN TEERLINCK

John Teerlinch, a legendary defensive line coach who was known for taking his men to the very edge of the law, has retired.  Mike Wells of ESPN.com:

Former NFL defensive line coaching great John Teerlinck, who coached with the Indianapolis Colts from 2002-12, has died at the age of 69.

“Rest In Peace, John Teerlinck,” Colts owner Jim Irsay wrote on Twitter. “One of our sport’s all-time greatest assistant coaches. And a Horseshoe guy, through-and-through.”

@JimIrsay

Rest In Peace, John Teerlinck.  One of our sport’s all-time greatest assistant coaches.  And a Horseshoe guy, through-and-through.

Helping develop some of the NFL’s best pass-rushers was a staple of Teerlinck’s during his 23-year coaching career that included being a part of six teams and helping three of those teams win a Super Bowl. Thirty-one of the players Teerlinck coached were selected to the Pro Bowl.

Teerlinck coached seven players — Robert Mathis, Dwight Freeney, Chris Doleman, John Randle, Kevin Greene, Bubba Baker and Neil Smith — who had at least 100 sacks in their careers. Randle, Doleman and Greene are part of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

“R.I.P to THE GREATEST Passrush Coach OF ALL TIME!!!! #JohnTeerlinck,” Mathis wrote on Twitter.

@RobertMathis98

R.I.P to THE GREATEST Passrush Coach OF ALL TIME!!!! #JohnTeerlinck

Randle, who finished his career with 137.5 sacks, had Teerlinck present him during his Pro Football Hall of Fame induction in 2010.

“First of all, I want to thank John Teerlinck for presenting me, motivating me, focusing me on the game that I love,” Randle said in his Hall of Fame speech. “I also want to say, John, thank you for saying I could excel and play in the National Football League, even though I wasn’t drafted, didn’t play for a major school. Also thank you for showing me what sometimes I didn’t see in myself.”

Teerlinck helped Mathis and Freeney become one of the best pass-rushing duos in the NFL while with the Colts. Mathis retired with 123 sacks and Freeney had 107.5 of his career 125.5 sacks while with the Colts.

“JT was a man of true legend,” Freeney said in a statement. “He was an innovator and his teachings were way ahead of his time. He taught me so much and I definitely would not have had the career I had if it wasn’t for him. I will miss him. Rest in peace my friend. The greatest d-line coach of all time!”

Teerlinck, a defensive tackle, was a fifth-round pick by the Chargers out of Western Illinois in 1974. He played in 20 games in the 1974 and 1975 seasons.

Teerlinck started his coaching career at Iowa Lakes Community College in 1977 while also working at Eastern Illinois and Illinois before getting his first NFL job with the Cleveland Browns in 1989.

“One of the greatest coaches to ever step foot in our building,” Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus said. “We are certainly mindful of that today. What a great coach and what an awesome job he’s done and did with coaching that exact thing we are talking about, the defensive line.”

And this from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune:

Teerlinck coached the Vikings defensive line under Dennis Green from 1992 to ’94. When former Vikings defensive tackle John Randle went into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2010, he chose Teerlinck as his presenter.

“It’s the greatest honor of my career,” Teerlinck said at the time. “I’ve been a part of three teams that won Super Bowls. But not many assistant coaches get an honor like this in their lifetime.”

Randle told the Star Tribune that year: “John Teerlinck is kind of like Mr. Miyagi He’s very unorthodox. A different breed. Rough around the edges. He tells you things that are funny, but they register if you just listen. That’s why he’s the guru.”

BILL BARNWELL’S WINNERS AND LOSERS

With the 2020 offseason mostly unfolded, Bill Barnwell looks at who has emerged as a winner or loser.  Edited from

Winner: Jarrett Stidham, QB, New England Patriots

Stidham is one of the most obvious victors of the past few months. We all knew the Patriots and Tom Brady would come to terms on a deal … until they didn’t. Then we all knew that the Pats were going to acquire Nick Foles or Andy Dalton or pull off some impossible run up the draft board for Tua Tagovailoa … and that didn’t happen either. Through the entire player acquisition window, the only competition the Patriots added for Stidham is veteran Brian Hoyer, who lost his last battle with Stidham for the backup spot in training camp in 2019. Barring a last-second move for Cam Newton, Stidham is going to be the Week 1 starter for the Patriots.

Merely having a chance to play is a huge opportunity for Stidham and one rarely afforded midround picks who aren’t forced into action by injury.

Winner: Gardner Minshew, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Likewise, the Jaguars cleared out a path for their 2019 sixth-round pick, as they traded away free-agent addition Nick Foles after paying him more than $30 million for four starts. Jacksonville then sat out the various free-agent quarterback options and didn’t use either of its first-round picks on a signal-caller. The Jags even added Tyler Eifert at tight end and used a second-round pick on wideout Laviska Shenault Jr., though their desperate attempts to get anybody to take running back Leonard Fournette off their hands found no takers.

Again, even having a chance to take meaningful reps as a sixth-round pick is rare. The last sixth-rounder to throw at least 400 passes over his first two seasons was Tom Brady, who threw three as a rookie in 2000 and 413 while leading the Pats to a Super Bowl in 2001.

Winner: Drew Lock, QB, Denver Broncos

Let’s hit a 2019 quarterback trifecta! Lock flashed promise while going 4-1 across his five starts at the end of the season, though it’s worth noting that those four wins came against the teams ranked 20th (Chargers), 26th (Texans), 27th (Lions), and 30th (Raiders) in pass defense DVOA. At the very least, he did enough for the Broncos to feel confident about opening the 2020 season with him as their starter.

While Denver held out some hope for luring Tom Brady, it didn’t make a move for any of the other quarterbacks when Brady decided to stay east. The Broncos didn’t even bring in a significant backup — the depth chart behind Lock consists of Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien and Riley Neal. This is Lock’s team.

On top of that vote of confidence from general manager John Elway, no quarterback gained more weapons this offseason than the Missouri product. Lock already had a handful of exciting pieces in running back Phillip Lindsay, wide receiver Courtland Sutton and tight end Noah Fant. I can’t pretend I’m the biggest Melvin Gordon fan, and it’s not a great contract for the Broncos, but the running back can be valuable when he’s healthy and protecting the football. Elway then used his first two selections in the draft on wideouts Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler.

Loser: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Washington

On the other hand, there’s a member of that 2019 quarterback class who might feel left out among all the additions. Washington did avoid the lure of using the second overall pick on a quarterback, but it did little to help its starting quarterback.

Loser: Cam Newton, QB, free agent

Things haven’t worked out for the former league MVP, who might have hoped to play out the final year of his deal with the Panthers while earning $19.1 million. Newton was instead cut, and the coronavirus pandemic has prevented him from finding a new team. He hasn’t been able to conduct a public workout, though he has posted videos on Instagram that show him going through drills. In the meantime, the starting jobs and most of the prime backup jobs have been filled.

There are still at least seven teams that should be looking for a backup quarterback, including the aforementioned Broncos and Jaguars, who don’t seem to want to challenge their young starters. The Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks all need a veteran backup, but there’s little chance of Newton playing meaningful snaps for those teams in 2020.

The two most logical landing spots left for Newton are in the AFC. Let’s start with the Titans, who gave Ryan Tannehill $91 million in practical guarantees over the next three years. Tannehill’s hold on the starting job isn’t going anywhere at that price tag, but the former Dolphins starter missed 24 games over his final four years in Miami. There’s a reasonable chance he misses time this year, and the Titans currently have seventh-round picks Cole McDonald and Logan Woodside behind their starter.

– – –

The ideal job for Newton would be in Pittsburgh. The Steelers should get Ben Roethlisberger back after he missed 14 games in 2019 with an elbow injury, but the longtime starter is 38 and has missed 38 games over his 16-year career. Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges were replacement-level quarterbacks last season, and Newton could viably make his case to serve as Roethlisberger’s long-term replacement in Pittsburgh if he plays well in a couple of spot starts.

Loser: Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Chicago Bears

While the Bears started this offseason suggesting that Trubisky would be their Week 1 starter in 2020, their actions suggest that his future is tenuous. Chicago traded for Nick Foles, and in restructuring the former Super Bowl MVP’s deal, it guaranteed Foles $21 million over the next three seasons. Then the team declined Trubisky’s fifth-year option, which would have guaranteed a $24.8 million salary in 2021 for injury.

Failing to earn a fifth-year option pickup has typically been a bad sign. Eight other first-round quarterbacks have had their fifth-year option declined. None of them made it to a fifth year with the team that drafted them. Six of them — Jake Locker, EJ Manuel, Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden, Johnny Manziel and Paxton Lynch — didn’t take an NFL snap anywhere in Year 5. Teddy Bridgewater spent his fifth year sitting behind Drew Brees, while the only one of the bunch who saw meaningful action was Blaine Gabbert in San Francisco.

Winner: Jordan Howard, RB, Miami Dolphins

There was little trade interest in Howard before he was dealt to the Eagles last offseason, and after seeing his rushing yards and yards-per-game figures decline in each of the past three seasons, I figured that the league would see him as a relatively replaceable zone runner. Alfred Morris, a similarly productive rookie, wasn’t able to ever get a significant deal.

Howard instead got a two-year, $10 million pact from the Dolphins with $4.8 million guaranteed in Year 1. Miami also added veterans Ereck Flowers and Ted Karras in free agency before using first- and second-round picks on offensive linemen. The Dolphins traded for Matt Breida, but they didn’t use a significant pick on a running back, and Breida has been a boom-or-bust player with injury issues during his time with the 49ers.

Howard landing meaningful guaranteed money, a starting job and a team that invested heavily in offensive linemen has to be considered a victory.

Loser: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, free agent

In a similar way to Newton’s, Clowney’s market has been depressed by medical concerns and an inability to evaluate those issues under the current climate. For all we hear about how NFL teams don’t focus on sacks, Clowney’s three-sack total from 2019 hasn’t helped his case. The former first overall pick is unquestionably talented, but the massive deal he might have received under typical circumstances after a more productive season hasn’t arrived.

Naturally, it seems like the logical thing for Clowney to do is sign a one-year deal with a contender and try to rebuild his value in the hopes of signing a big deal next year. Under normal circumstances, that idea makes sense. This isn’t a normal season, though, and there’s a chance that Clowney — and many other veterans — might not be able to sign big contracts next offseason.

As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap wrote last week, the uncertainty around 2020 stadium and ticket revenue could lead to a meaningful drop in league income, which would result in a shrunken salary cap. Teams have seen the cap rise by an average of just under 6% over the past decade, up from $120 million in 2011 to $198.2 million in 2020. With players improving their share of revenue in the new CBA, the cap was expected to rise well north of $200 million in 2021. Now, Fitzgerald projects, the cap could fall somewhere between $130 million to $175 million in 2021, depending on how revenues are affected by the pandemic.

Obviously, it’s too early to project what the situation will be like next year, and the league could come to an agreement with its players to push future revenues forward to try to account for a reduced cap figure in 2021, but we could be looking at a different financial landscape next spring. Teams that were planning for a $210 million cap would be forced to cut veterans to get compliant, flooding the market with talented players. Many free agents would likely look for one-year deals in advance of a massive projected cap increase in 2022 and 2023, when local revenue would return to form and the league would be flush with television revenue from new deals. Clowney might end up stuck signing back-to-back one-year deals as a result.

Losers: Teams with lots of guaranteed money tied up in 2021

While we’re again months and months away from having any idea about what the cap will look like next year, there are teams that have to be sweating the possibility of a reduced cap. Take the Eagles, who already have $263.3 million on the books for 2021, much of it tied up in players who are core pieces of the roster. Getting down to $210 million would require a couple of restructures and cuts of veterans like DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Marquise Goodwin. Moving to $175 million would require another $35 million in savings.

The Eagles would find a reduced cap most difficult, but teams like the Saints, Falcons and Steelers would also be in compromised positions.

Winner: David Johnson, RB, Houston Texans

I hit the most crucial parts of the DeAndre Hopkins trade when it happened in March, but it’s quietly a huge victory for Johnson. With the Cardinals slapping the transition tag on Kenyan Drake, Arizona was clearly moving forward with Drake as its starting running back. It wouldn’t have been surprising to see Chase Edmonds as the No. 2 behind him. Johnson was likely in line to get cut, where veterans like Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde and LeSean McCoy haven’t found a market.

Instead, the Texans traded for Johnson as part of the Hopkins deal, suggesting that Bill O’Brien sees him as a meaningful asset. With Houston treating Duke Johnson like a third-down back last season, David Johnson has a clear path to lead-back duties in an offense that ranked 11th in rush offense DVOA a year ago. There’s even a chance that the Texans pay Johnson the $9 million he’s due in 2021, which seemed out of the question when the offseason began.

Loser: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

While I wrote about why the Jordan Love decision might not be as bad as it seems for the Packers, it’s fair to say that Rodgers’ position can’t feel as good as it did a few months ago.

Loser: Los Angeles Rams

One year ago, the Rams were coming off a trip to the Super Bowl. Every team wanted to hire a coach who vaguely resembled Sean McVay. Their young core seemed set to compete for another title. After a frustrating 2019 campaign left the Rams struggling for answers on offense and out of the playoffs for the first time since McVay arrived in town, it was clear that Los Angeles needed to make changes during the offseason.

I’m not sure those changes really helped, as this offseason felt like a repudiation of the Rams’ philosophy. They lost legendary defensive coordinator Wade Phillips and longtime special-teams coordinator John Fassel. Just two years after handing out huge contracts to Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley, they punted on both of those deals, cutting their former MVP candidate at running back while trading the wide receiver to the Texans. They were even publicly called out for not paying Gurley and Clay Matthews bonus money, which should hurt the organization when it tries to sign free agents in the future.

Furthermore, the Rams didn’t really resolve any of their problems this offseason. After trading two first-round picks to acquire Jalen Ramsey, they still haven’t signed their star cornerback to an extension. They swapped out Dante Fowler Jr. for edge rusher Leonard Floyd and used their top two picks to replace Cooks and Gurley, but they didn’t do anything to replace star inside linebacker Cory Littleton.

Crucially, L.A. almost entirely ignored an offensive line that crumbled in 2019, re-signing aging left tackle Andrew Whitworth while choosing to hope for a healthier 2020. With Jared Goff posting the league’s worst passer rating under pressure in 2019, McVay will need to conjure up a solution to get his prize pupil back on track this season.

Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Well, duh. The Buccaneers have Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski now. Even beyond those two additions, though, the offseason has gone extremely well for the Bucs. They needed to retain the core of their wildly underrated defensive line and managed to do so by franchising Shaq Barrett and re-signing both Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. Their biggest hole heading into the draft was at right tackle, and they had to move up only one spot to get Tristan Wirfs.

This offseason was something out of a dream for Tampa Bay, which has a higher win projection in Vegas than the Patriots for 2020.

Winner: Jason Licht, GM, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A particularly big winner in this scenario is Tampa Bay’s general manager. Licht has been the general manager for six years, and the Bucs have gone 34-62 during his time in charge. That’s the third-worst mark in football. The team has cycled through three coaches over that six-year span, and while Licht nailed first-round picks on wide receiver Mike Evans and defensive tackle Vita Vea, he’s also the one who drafted Jameis Winston and stuck with the embattled quarterback over the past five years. Licht also whiffed on most of his second-round selections, most notably kicker Roberto Aguayo, who was the low point of an almost comical inability from the organization to identify a competent kicker.

Licht is by all accounts a nice guy, and he has hit on a number of his midround selections too. Teams are generally too aggressive in getting rid of their top decision-makers, and I’m not saying Licht should have been fired. Typically, though, general managers with that sort of track record don’t get to enter a seventh offseason, and when Licht did, he managed to convince Brady and Gronkowski to come to town. Nobody would have batted an eye if the Bucs let go of Licht last offseason; now, if the Bucs live up to expectations, he might very well win Executive of the Year.

Loser: Tight end streamers against the Arizona Cardinals

If you played daily fantasy football or chose to stream your tight ends on a week-to-week basis in standard fantasy football, you knew about the Cardinals. Last year, Arizona allowed 309 points to opposing tight ends in PPR leagues, an average of 19.3 points per game. No other team was above 244, and the league average was 195 points, or just under 12.2 points per contest. It’s the second-worst season any team has posted against tight ends over the past 20 years, trailing only the 2013 Cardinals. Everybody from T.J. Hockenson to Ross Dwelley had their best games of the season against Arizona.

Vance Joseph-led defenses don’t always know what to do with tight ends — the Broncos ranked 26th against tight ends during his two years as Denver’s coach — but the Cardinals did something to address the problem this offseason by drafting Isaiah Simmons with the No. 8 overall pick. They’ve suggested that the talented Clemson defender will begin his NFL career at linebacker, where he’s likely to see plenty of action against tight ends in coverage. Arizona has managed to get the least out of athletic, hybrid defenders like Deone Bucannon and Haason Reddick in years past, but Simmons could very well ruin one of the easiest exploits in fantasy football.

Winner: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Did any first-round pick end up in a more advantageous landing spot? Andy Reid told general manager Brett Veach that he thought Edwards-Helaire was better than Brian Westbrook before the Chiefs drafted the LSU back with the final pick of the first round. The only running back Reid had drafted before the third round across his career as a head coach and personnel executive before Edwards-Helaire was LeSean McCoy, who was the 53rd pick in the 2009 draft.

While the Chiefs have suggested that Edwards-Helaire will split time with incumbent Damien Williams, the future belongs to the rookie. Williams is a free agent after the season and wasn’t healthy for most of 2019 with hamstring issues. The Chiefs also said the same thing about Kareem Hunt and Spencer Ware in 2017, and when Ware went down with a knee injury in the preseason, Hunt was handed the job and finished his rookie year with 1,782 yards from scrimmage. Edwards-Helaire should turn into one of the most productive backs in football; the only real question is when.

Losers: Rookie coaches (and players)

It should go without saying that this is incredibly low on the list of upheavals caused by the pandemic, but while the NFL has managed to keep free agency and the draft on schedule, there’s no realistic way for football teams to practice.

Naturally, the teams with new head coaches and coordinators — the Browns, Giants, Panthers and Washington — are the ones that are most likely to suffer from this lack of teaching time. \

Winners: Veterans negotiating contracts with the Houston Texans

You probably knew that the Texans weren’t going to get out of a winners and losers column unscathed. I’ll leave the Hopkins deal aside, but it’s worth noting just how dramatically the contracts the Texans handed out differ from those of their peers. Slot corner Bradley Roby signed a three-year, $31.5 million deal when guys like Chris Harris Jr. and Brian Poole were forced to sign smaller contracts and Logan Ryan remains a free agent. Wideout Randall Cobb inked a three-year, $27 million deal when the wideout market totally cratered.

The biggest deal, though, belongs to Laremy Tunsil. The Texans didn’t sign the offensive tackle to an extension after trading two first-round picks and a second-rounder to the Dolphins last August. Tunsil said that even he would have made that trade from the Dolphins’ perspective, and he continued to dabble in negotiations when he chose to represent himself in extension talks with O’Brien.

Tunsil did well. He ended up signing a three-year, $66 million extension, meaning he’ll make a total of $76.9 million over the next four years. The deal shattered the tackle market, where the largest average annual salary belonged to Lane Johnson at $18 million per season, and Johnson’s deal is really a paper extension for cap purposes with base salaries that will void next offseason. The largest real deal for a tackle is Trent Brown’s four-year, $66.8 million pact from last offseason. Brown averaged less than $17 million per season on his deal. Tunsil averaged $22 million on his extension and $19.3 million over the next four years. Nobody in the league got a bigger contract this offseason after adjusting for positional expectations. Tunsil even gets to hit free agency again before turning 30. Not bad for a part-time agent!

Winner: Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

I mentioned three other 2019 quarterbacks earlier, but I’ll add a fourth to the list with the first overall pick from last year’s draft. It isn’t complicated, of course: Murray was given the gift of DeAndre Hopkins, who will add to a receiving corps that already featured Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald. The Arizona offense was also better after adding Kenyan Drake last season, and Drake was retained on a transition tag. Kliff Kingsbury’s offense will not lack for weapons.

I’m still a little worried about the offensive line, but the Cardinals did re-sign left tackle D.J. Humphries after his best season and added Josh Jones to compete with Marcus Gilbert on the right side.

Winner: Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

I’ll finish up with one of the most interesting unresolved sagas of the offseason. No, Prescott doesn’t have his deal yet, though the star quarterback will have long-term financial security once he signs the $31.5 million franchise tag. The Cowboys continue to say they intend to keep Prescott around on a long-term deal, but they did add Andy Dalton and suggested last week that Prescott “has to accept what [the Cowboys] want to pay him.”

Of course, Prescott doesn’t really have to accept that. The Cowboys can franchise him again in 2021 for $37.8 million, but with a third franchise tag costing them $54.3 million, they realistically have to get Prescott signed before the end of the 2021 season. And if the Cowboys think Prescott’s demands are unreasonable now, they’re not going to get cheaper, given that the likes of Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes are going to raise the market by signing extensions of their own.

2021 DRAFT QBs

Mike Renner of ProFootballFocus.com tries to compare the upcoming 2021 class of draft QBs with what we just went through:

It seems like every year in studying the NFL draft that we hear “Wait until next year’s class!” as the next big thing often seems greater than the current one. The 2021 class, though? The quarterbacks who will be eligible in that class look considerably more promising than what we saw this time last year for the 2020 class.

It’s not hyperbole to say that the 2021 class could offer elite quarterback prospects at the top end the likes of which we haven’t seen since Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III went 1-2 in 2012.

So how does next year’s class stack up head to head with this year’s? Here’s how we’d rank the quarterbacks in a combined class if they all could have entered the 2020 draft, based on Pro Football Focus’ draft board (all statistics from PFF):

1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

Ranking in 2021 class: No. 1

One doesn’t carve up a loaded Alabama defense on the biggest stage as a true freshman without being something special. No quarterback prospect since Luck has allowed his college team to open up the entire playbook in the way Lawrence has at Clemson. Manipulating the pocket, playing on the move, throwing the far-hash deep comeback, running options — you name it, Lawrence can do it.

The only thing we haven’t quite seen him do is reach that next level in the PFF grading system. He earned a 90.7 overall grade as a freshman (a PFF freshman record) and 91.0 as a sophomore (Joe Burrow was at 95.0, for comparison). Lawrence had some accuracy issues pop up at times in 2019. If you take away screens and run-pass options (RPOs), Lawrence completed only 50% of his passes through the first seven games. While he dominated down the stretch, this issue reared its ugly head again in the national title game with a ridiculous 35.3% of his attempts deemed uncatchable.

The good still far outweighs the bad thanks to his ability to make quick decisions and protect the football. Lawrence has 58 big-time throws (special downfield throws) in his career compared to only 21 turnover-worthy plays. Maybe more impressively, he has taken only 32 sacks on 881 dropbacks over the past two seasons. That’s less than half of Burrow’s total over that span (72). The 6-foot-6, 220-pound Lawrence is the real deal.

2. Joe Burrow, LSU

Ranking in 2020 class: No. 1

It was a hotly contested debate for the top spot, as Burrow reached a height as a passer we’ve never seen before at the collegiate level. The age ultimately was the deciding factor — Lawrence lighting up college football at 19 and 20 years old is different than Burrow doing it at 22 and 23.

The former LSU quarterback is still the best quarterback prospect PFF has seen in the past six drafts, though. His accuracy is on another level from any quarterback we’ve ever charted.

Of his targets 10-plus yards downfield last season, 61.6% were deemed accurate — the highest we’ve ever seen in our six years of grading college players. Baker Mayfield’s 55.7% accuracy rate on those same throws was the second best. That means Burrow was nearly six percentage points better than the previous gold standard. The Bengals got a good one.

3. Justin Fields, Ohio State

Ranking in 2021 class: No. 2

Fields’ breakout 2019 campaign was reminiscent of Kyler Murray’s 2018 with the Sooners — and Fields was two years younger when he did it. The Georgia transfer lit up the Big Ten with a 92.4 PFF passing grade and 34 big-time throws (second most in FBS) compared to only 11 turnover-worthy plays. If it wasn’t with his arm, the 6-foot-3 Fields was beating defenses with his legs, as he racked up 484 rushing yards.

Those are all cherries on top of the real sundae that is Fields’ accuracy. Taking away screens and RPOs, and 19.5% of his attempts were deemed to be perfectly placed. Only Burrow, Jake Fromm and Lawrence were better last season. He also had the second-lowest off-target rate on intermediate throws of any quarterback in the country. Fields can beat you any which way you want, and his 2019 was only the first course.

4. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

Ranking in 2020 class: No. 2

The thing we keep coming back to with Tagovailoa is the same observation that gave Lawrence the nod at the top: He never played bad football. While we never saw him quite reach the pinnacles from a grading perspective that Burrow and Fields have, Tagovailoa earned an 81.4 grade on 87 dropbacks as a true freshman, 90.9 as a sophomore and then 90.3 as a senior. The fact he did it in the SEC is an added bonus.

The injury history has to be taken into account here. And it’s concerning that he was getting hurt behind elite Bama offensive lines. He already has had two of his tackles drafted in the first round (Jonah Williams and Jedrick Wills Jr.) and probably will have another in 2021 (Alex Leatherwood). He won’t see anything close to that level of protection in the NFL, especially not anytime soon with the state of the Dolphins’ offensive line.

5. Trey Lance, North Dakota State

Ranking in 2021 class: No. 3

The 6-foot-3 Lance looked every bit a first-round quarterback prospect as a redshirt freshman in 2019, leading North Dakota State to a 16-0 record and an FCS championship. He’s doing it differently than other elite QB prospects, though; he averaged just 18 passing attempts a game (Burrow averaged slightly over 35, for comparison). Lance’s biggest red flag at the moment is that we haven’t seen him have to win enough games with his arm.

When your red flags aren’t directly related to something bad occurring on the field, though, that’s a good sign for a prospect. Lance doesn’t have any decision-making issues. His 28 touchdown passes and zero interceptions showed off his traits.

Lance has easy arm talent to attack all levels of the defense, and he already has shown he’s comfortable throwing on the move. Even by PFF’s turnover-worthy plays metric, we charted him with only four. With a big redshirt sophomore campaign, Lance could join Lawrence and Fields as franchise prospects at the top of the 2021 draft.

6. Justin Herbert, Oregon

Ranking in 2020 class: No. 3

Herbert always tantalized yet never quite delivered. The hype on him heading into the 2018 season was well-deserved. He earned a 77.0 passing grade on 292 dropbacks as a true freshman in 2016 before making the leap to dominance as a sophomore in 2017 for the Ducks. He averaged 9.6 yards per attempt, completed 67.5% of his passes and earned a 91.1 passing grade. But he broke his collarbone midway through the season and amassed only 231 dropbacks on the year.

In the two subsequent seasons, Herbert failed to deliver on the buzz surrounding him. All the arm talent in the world never quite translated to big plays on the field. He ranked sixth with 29 big-time throws in 2018 but only 26th with 21 big-time throws last season. That’s not the kind of trend you want to see. The talent is obvious, but it will take a different offensive system and coach to get it out of him for the Chargers.

7. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma

Ranking in 2020 class: No. 4

While many panned Hurts going in the middle of Round 2 as a reach, we saw the same promise as the Eagles. Whether it’s with his legs or decision-making, Hurts plays winning football. The biggest selling point is simply how much he improved as a passer over the course of his college career. As a true freshman, he looked more like a running back thrust in at quarterback and earned only a 69.2 passing grade. The next season, that jumped to 79.9 before he was benched in the national title game for Tagovailoa. Finally, in 84 dropbacks filling in for an injured Tagovailoa in 2018 and 425 last season season at Oklahoma, Hurts earned a 92.0 passing grade.

That kind of year-over-year improvement is exactly what you want in a quarterback prospect. We’ve seen not only his decision-making improve by leaps and bounds but also his accuracy. His adjusted completion percentage on throws 10-plus yards downfield went from 55.3% in 2017 to 63.7% in 2019. Add in his 1,298 rushing yards at 5.6 yards per carry last season, and he’s well worth the second-round pick.

8. Jake Fromm, Georgia

Ranking in 2020 class: No. 5

It was a bit surprising that Fromm declared for the draft, as the second half of 2019 was some of the worst football we’ve seen from him in his career. He’s a quarterback who lives with his quick decision-making, ability to manipulate defenses and accuracy at the intermediate level.

It’s that last skill, though, that faltered down the stretch. Through the first six weeks of last season, Fromm earned a 92.5 passing grade and missed on only one of his 44 attempts to open receivers. Over the rest of the season, the passing graded dipped to 75.8 and his off-target rate to open receivers jumped from 2.3% to 17.5%. With limited arm strength, Fromm has to thrive off his accuracy and decision-making. Questions about the former are probably why he slid all the way to the fifth round, but Buffalo got a talented passer.

9. Jordan Love, Utah State

Ranking in 2020 class: No. 6

PFF was far lower on Love than where he was ultimately drafted, as the Packers moved up in the first round to grab him at No. 26 overall. The decision-making and accuracy issues were far too risky for us to get on board with early. He had the fourth-most turnover-worthy plays in the country last season and had more in 2019 (27) than Tagovailoa had in his entire college career (24).

The videos of him throwing 75-yard Hail Marys and placing it over linebackers on the move are great. But even though his highlight reel is long, Love’s lowlight reel is even longer. Among the 27 quarterbacks with at least 200 throws last season to receivers deemed open, Love’s 10.5% uncatchable inaccurate rate ranked 25th (Burrow led the nation at 3.3%, for comparison). That’s a scary rate for a top prospect.

10. Brock Purdy, Iowa State

Ranking in 2021 class: No. 4

Where the NFL ultimately falls on Purdy will be curious. He has far from ideal size — he’s listed at 6-foot-1, 210 pounds — and will only be a true junior in 2021, but there’s a reason Iowa State has been a major player in the Big 12 after being a doormat for so long. The Cyclones have finished with a winning record for three consecutive seasons, and the last time they did that was the mid-1970s.

Simply put, quarterbacks aren’t supposed to be putting up the numbers he has at Iowa State. Purdy was thrust into a starting role midway through his freshman year and earned an 88.0 passing grade over the final nine games of the season. He couldn’t quite replicate that magic last season after losing his top wide receiver in Hakeem Butler and running back David Montgomery, but he put up 3,975 passing yards and an 81.8 passing grade nonetheless.

He has a little Johnny Manziel to his game — he’s a good athlete — while also making several plays outside the pocket. And unlike many of the others above him on this list, Purdy is doing it without anything in the way of surrounding NFL-talent. Iowa State didn’t have anyone drafted in 2020, and the only player who might get a sniff from the league on its offense is tight end Charlie Kolar.

We doubt if Burrow would have appeared on a similar list a year ago.