Current playoff losing streak

Seasons

23        Miami Dolphins                        0-6 in playoff games since last win

21        Las Vegas Raiders                 0-3 in playoff games since last win

18        Washington Commanders      0-5 in playoff games since last win

– – –

Austin Gayle of The Ringer has some thoughts on the schedule:

We have survived the NFL’s annual schedule release extravaganza, and for 2024, it comes with a to-do list. First, scroll through your favorite release videos on social media and save official lock screen graphics for your iPhone as soon as you can to make the next 10 weeks go by that much faster. Next, steel yourself for the Aaron Rodgers Content Machine—the endless appearances on The Pat McAfee Show and any number of podcasts, and also the Jets’ seven (!!!) stand-alone games on the 2024 schedule. (He’ll make his return from last season’s Achilles tendon injury on Monday Night Football in Week 1. What could possibly go wrong?!) And don’t forget to subscribe to Netflix and Amazon and Peacock and ESPN+ and Hinge (they don’t have a game, yet, but you’ll need it when your partner leaves you for spending all that money on streaming services and ditching them to watch football on all of the major holidays) before it’s too late. And check out the five biggest takeaways from the schedule release below:

The NFL’s Heat Checks Are Only Going to Get Deeper

When Stephen Curry shoots a deep 3, no one bats an eye. He’s the best 3-point shooter in NBA history and one of the most prolific deep 3-point shooters of all time. Make or miss, it’s a good shot regardless of where he lets go of the ball. The NFL isn’t any different with its push deeper and deeper into its fan base’s pockets. Roger Goodell just keeps shooting.

After finalizing a three-year contract with Netflix to air Christmas Day games, the NFL has officially splintered its game programming to six major broadcast destinations. Fans will need a major cable or streaming provider to watch local games on CBS, Fox, ESPN, and NBC. Fans will need additional subscriptions to watch NFL RedZone and/or out-of-market games weekly. They will also need Peacock for the Week 1 game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers, Amazon Prime Video for Thursday Night Football broadcasts throughout the regular season, ESPN+ for a handful of games spread across the season, and, of course, Netflix now for two games—Chiefs at Steelers and Ravens at Texans—on Christmas, which falls on a Wednesday this year. The NFL wants every dollar you have to spend on broadcasts (and every minute you have to spend with your family given the holiday slate), and they know you’ll give it to them. (True Boy Math is calculating just how much money you’ll have to spend to watch every NFL game this season knowing that the final price point doesn’t matter at all.)

Of course, the immediate reaction to all of this will be that this shit sucks. Paying more money for things sucks. The internet, for a lot of reasons, sucks. But don’t forget 93 of the 100 most watched broadcasts in the U.S. last year were NFL games. Three of the seven non-NFL games in the top 100 were college football games, and one of the seven was a show called Tracker, which aired on CBS immediately following the Super Bowl. The NBA and MLB average fewer than 2 million viewers per game; more than twice as many viewers got up early to watch the Ravens as an eight-point favorite take on the Titans in a Week 6 game in London last season. Upping prices and enabling a billion-dollar bidding war with broadcast partners and streamers are direct by-products of the NFL’s unwavering support and interest; stop being surprised when they cast a shot from the Netflix logo at half court.

The Week 1 Slate Is Fun

Two stand-alone games to start the season are a treat. Rather than having just one debut matchup on Thursday night to kick off the season, the NFL is first giving fans Ravens at Chiefs, a rematch of last season’s AFC championship game (and a rematch of Justin Tucker vs. Patrick Mahomes) on Thursday, and then Packers-Eagles from São Paulo, Brazil, on Friday night. It will be the first of eight national games for the Chiefs this season. (Surely the NFL is hoping Taylor Swift will find time around her Eras Tour dates to show up and juice the ratings for those games.)

The Friday game—the NFL’s first in Brazil—won’t kick off until 8:15 p.m. ET, but it will be worth staying up late for. A strong Jordan Love performance for the Packers coupled with any signs of disaster in Philadelphia in the first game of the post–Jason Kelce era would provide quite the narrative coming out of opening weekend.

The two prime-time games on the back end of Week 1 are quite special as well. First, there’s a rematch of last year’s NFC divisional-round matchup between the Rams and Lions, with now highly paid QB Jared Goff going toe-to-toe with Matthew Stafford on Sunday Night Football. Then we’ll have the most nerve-racking first four plays of any Monday Night Football game ever when Rodgers and the Jets face the 49ers to close out the week. If Rodgers finishes that game with his Achilles tendons intact and it saves us from more two-hour Tucker Carlson podcast guest appearances, we all win.

The middle heft of the Week 1 slate isn’t a letdown, either. An eight-game early window on Sunday and a four-game late window should make for a phenomenal multi-view experience on YouTube TV all day. The late afternoon window—with Raiders at Chargers, Broncos at Seahawks, Cowboys at Browns, and Commanders at Buccaneers—has plenty of story lines. It’ll be our first glimpse of Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers and Jayden Daniels’s Commanders. We’ll also get a cheeky look at Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix against new Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald and a strong matchup between two potential playoff teams in the Browns and Cowboys, with recent roast victim Tom Brady making his first regular-season call for Fox. If you can’t get up for those narratives in Week 1, you just don’t love ball.

All Holidays Are Football Days Now

The NFL is airing one game on Halloween, three games on Thanksgiving, one on Black Friday, and two on Christmas across various TV and streaming platforms. If the rest of your family hates football, I’m sorry.

All of the holiday games are initially appealing. Texans at Jets on Halloween could have playoff ramifications in the AFC, assuming both C.J. Stroud and Rodgers are healthy and playing up to expectations by midseason. The three Thanksgiving games look promising, too. Caleb Williams makes the Bears must-watch TV week in and week out. Giants at Cowboys is a great spot for a midday nap regardless of who is starting at quarterback for New York by then. And it’s certainly possible the nightcap will be a high-scoring shoot-out between Love’s Packers and Tua Tagovailoa’s Dolphins.

Avid Black Friday shoppers might prefer to skip Raiders at Chiefs, but it’ll be hard not to at least have the game pulled up on your phone after Las Vegas upset Kansas City on Christmas last season. And both of the Christmas Day games—Ravens at Texans and Chiefs at Steelers—offer enough intrigue to delay dinner a bit, too. Three, if not all four, of those teams should be vying for spots in the AFC playoffs, and each has a quarterback situation worth watching.

Who Got Screwed?

The only tradition stronger than the Chargers’ social media domination is fan bases using schedule release day to complain. The bye is too early! The bye is too late! The schedule is too front-loaded! There are too many potential bad-weather games!

But a couple of teams have valid complaints. The Patriots’ schedule really is brutal.

New England will trot out a first-year head coach, first-year offensive play caller, and rookie quarterback as an 8.5-point road underdog against Joe Burrow and the Bengals to start the year, and their schedule in Weeks 1-5 is the third toughest of any team’s in the league, per Warren Sharp’s forecasted win totals. Their full season schedule is the second toughest. Sure, they’ll benefit from a pretty significant rest edge over the course of the season, but that will be of little relief, as they’re traveling twice to the West Coast and also to London.

The 49ers, conversely, seem to have an easy schedule to start the season, but their net rest differential is third worst of any team’s schedule over the last two decades, per ESPN Analytics. San Francisco will play four (!) different teams coming off bye weeks, including the Cowboys, Bills, and (gulp) Chiefs. The last time they played Kansas City after Andy Reid had an extra week to prepare, it didn’t go so great.

MINNESOTA

WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON is not OTAing.  Adam Schefter of ESPN.com:

Star wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who has been in talks with the Minnesota Vikings regarding a contract extension, was not spotted at the team’s training facility Monday for the start of OTAs, team sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

Jefferson also didn’t participate in the earlier portion of the Vikings’ offseason program, which, like OTAs, is voluntary.

Last month, during the NFL draft, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said the team and Jefferson were making progress on a deal, although the sides paused talks during the draft.

The Vikings and Jefferson have been discussing terms of the deal for more than a year. Adofo-Mensah said previously that they got “unbelievably close” to a deal last summer before tabling the talks at the start of the 2023 regular season.

Jefferson also missed all of the Vikings’ 2023 voluntary workouts before reporting for mandatory minicamp as he worked through negotiations.

Last month, Philadelphia Eagles receiver A.J. Brown agreed to a three-year, $96 million extension that included $84 million guaranteed, his agent told Schefter. The $32 million average annual value of the extension and the $84 million guaranteed represented new highs for a wide receiver contract.

Last season, Jefferson was leading the NFL in receiving yards (543) when he suffered a right hamstring injury in Week 5. After returning for good in Week 15, he amassed 476 receiving yards, the second-highest total in the league over that period. All told, he caught 68 passes for 1,074 yards in parts of 10 games, joining Jim Benton (1945) and Wes Chandler (1982) as the only players to hit that milestone in a season of 10 or fewer games.

Jefferson, the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year when he led the NFL with 128 receptions and 1,809 yards receiving, has surpassed 1,000 yards receiving in each of his four seasons. His average of 98.3 yards per game is the highest in NFL history — for any career span.

He is set to play this season on the fifth-year option in his rookie contract, worth $19.743 million, fully guaranteed.

DALLAS

LB MICAH PARSONS with an absence from OTAs.  Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com

The Cowboys have opened their Organized Team Activities, but Micah Parsons isn’t there.

Parsons, the star linebacker who wants a new contract, did not attend the opening of OTAs, according to Clarence Hill of the Star-Telegram.

Parsons joins CeeDee Lamb as key Cowboys who are not participating in OTAs as they seek new deals. Lamb was always expected to skip voluntary work, but the Cowboys had been hoping that Parsons would show up. Parsons’ agent said in April that his absence from voluntary work was not about his contract, but Parsons would obviously like to get a long-term deal from the Cowboys.

The 24-year-old Parsons has emerged as one of the best defensive players in the NFL since the Cowboys selected him with the 12th overall pick in 2021. He has two years left on his rookie contract, with a salary of just under $3 million this year and $21.3 million next year.

PHILADELPHIA

WR DaVANTE PARKER is retiring.  Jordan Dajani of CBSSports.com:

Wide receiver DeVante Parker agreed to a one-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason, but he will not be playing for Philly in 2024. Instead, Parker has decided to retire from football at the age of 31, the nine-year NFL veteran told ESPN’s Adam Schefter Monday night.

Parker said the time had come for him to spend more time with his family, and that he will take things slowly moving forward. “I want to see my kids, spend quality time with them,” Parker said, via ESPN. “I want to be there for them whenever I can.”

When asked what he will remember most about his NFL career, Parker mentioned his teammates.

“The camaraderie,” Parker said, via ESPN. “The brotherhood in the locker room on whichever team it was. Everyone always welcome me with open arms, and I appreciated them for that. 

“I also appreciate the Dolphins for drafting me and giving me the opportunity. I always will have love for the Dolphins and their organization. And I want to thank all the teams, the Patriots and the Eagles, too. But the Dolphins were the first team, and I really want to thank them.”

This past season with the New England Patriots, Parker caught 33 passes for 394 yards and zero touchdowns in 13 games played. It was Parker’s first NFL season in which he did not catch a touchdown.

Parker was selected by the Miami Dolphins with the No. 14 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft out of Louisville. After seven seasons in Miami, Parker was traded to the rival Patriots along with a fifth-round pick in exchange for a future third-round pick. He left the Dolphins as their No. 6 receiver all time, having recorded 4,727 yards and 24 touchdowns on 338 receptions. He had one 1,000-yard campaign, which came back in 2019, when Parker caught a career-high 72 passes for 1,202 yards and nine touchdowns.

Parker walks away from football having caught 402 passes for 5,660 yards and 27 touchdowns. His 402 receptions rank No. 38 since entering the league, and his 5,660 receiving yards rank No. 30.

WASHINGTON

The Commanders are hoping that Brandon Sosna has been the brain, or a key brain, behind the rise of the Lions.  Jeremy Bergman of NFL.com:

The Washington Commanders are working to hire Detroit Lions executive Brandon Sosna as their senior vice president of football operations, NFL Network Insider Mike Garafolo reported Monday, per sources. The team later announced the news.

Washington interviewed only a few candidates for the job, including former Philadelphia Eagles vice president of football administration Jake Rosenberg, Garafolo added.

Sosna, 31, has been Detroit’s senior director, football administration since joining the organization in 2022. He oversees “the strategic planning and management of the salary cap as the team’s primary contract negotiator,” according to his bio on the Lions’ website.

Sosna joined the Lions after three years as USC football’s chief of staff.

The post-draft hire is a continuation of Washington’s offseason of change. Since the end of the 2023 season, the Commanders hired Adam Peters as their general manager and Dan Quinn as their new head coach and then drafted Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

It would seem he got all those Lions extensions done without sending Detroit to cap jail.

CAROLINA

Coach Dave Canales says the learning process for QB BRYCE YOUNG is “fantastic” so far.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is heading into his second NFL season, learning his second offense, and Dave Canales is Young’s third head coach. Canales is pleased with what Young has done this offseason, with a lot of change and a lot to learn.

Asked how Young is picking up the new playbook, Canales said Young already has a great handle on the concepts in the Panthers’ offense.

“He’s doing fantastic with it,” Canales said.

After the Panthers’ first voluntary full-team offseason practice, Canales said Young has grasped what the coaching staff is teaching him.

“As I expect him to do, he’s really mastering that part of it,” Canales said. “So, really pleased.”

Young struggled through an ugly rookie year last season, with the Panthers winning just two games and finishing with the worst record in the NFL. Young didn’t look like a first overall pick should look, and it’s Canales’s job to change that. So far, Canales thinks they’re heading in the right direction.

TAMPA BAY

Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times with a good look at S ANTOINE WINFIELD, Jr. and how he became the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history.  The story also involves his father and his fiancé:

Antoine Winfield Jr. figures he was about 8 or 9 years old when he crawled into bed one night with his father, a defensive back who played 14 NFL seasons with the Bills and Vikings.

“I remember he had the little DVD player and the little CD and he was just sitting up in his bed, and I remember going up and asking him what he was doing,” Winfield said Monday. “He was like, ‘I’ve got (Lions receiver) Calvin Johnson this week. So we’re trying to figure out how to stop him,’ and he was just going over what he was supposed to do on certain plays and how he was supposed to shut him down.”

Flash forward to a year ago. Winfield was making his own video following a workout at a Tampa park. His fiancee, Teesa Mpagi, whom he has known since high school, was behind the camera, encouraging Winfield to speak some goals into existence.

“It was her idea,” Winfield said, motioning to Mpagi. “I was at a park right down the street from my house and I was out there getting in some work, and she picked up the camera and said, ‘Say something to the camera.’ I just started talking, and those were the goals I had in my mind.”

The two goals Winfield voiced that day — “All-Pro” and “highest-paid” — came true Monday, when the safety signed a four-year, $84.1 million contract with $45 million guaranteed to remain with the Bucs.

“My goal coming in was to be the highest-paid safety,” Winfield clarified. “And then my agent called, and when he went over the details, I was like, ‘Wow.’”

That was the common exclamation used last season after one of Winfield’s game-changing plays. He finished with 122 tackles, 12 passes defensed, eight quarterback hits, six sacks, six forced fumbles, four fumble recoveries and three interceptions — all career highs.

“Every year, I just want to be better than I was the year before,” Winfield said. “That’s my goal, and to make that happen, for everything to come to fruition as I envisioned it, is an amazing feeling. … I still can’t believe I accomplished that feat, but I’ve still got more in me.”

In fact, Winfield had about five game-changing or victory-sealing plays last season. They included a game-clinching interception against Carolina, a sack/forced fumble that was recovered in the end zone for a safety at Atlanta and a sack/forced fumble/recovery during the opener at Minnesota.

But the play Winfield was most proud of came in the 9-0, NFC South-clinching win against the Panthers on Jan. 7, when he came from the opposite side of the field to strip D.J. Chark of the ball just as the receiver reached for the pylon, causing a fumble that resulted in a touchback.

Winfield is the latest veteran to be locked up by the Bucs this offseason, joining receiver Mike Evans, quarterback Baker Mayfield and linebacker Lavonte David.

General manager Jason Licht said the team didn’t set out to make Winfield the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history, but he doesn’t regret it.

“Every negotiation is a little different,” Licht said. “The point where we ended really wasn’t a huge ask when you have a player like Antoine who has done everything right from the minute we drafted him. He’s just a stellar teammate. … You feel good about doing good things for great players, great teammates and great people.”

The feeling the Bucs have for Winfield was evident Monday, when nearly the entire defensive coaching staff attended his news conference.

How will being the highest-paid defensive back affect Winfield?

“I’m never satisfied,” he said. “Every season I want to be better than I was the previous season. My (safeties) coach, (Nick) Rapone, always says,’ To much that is given, much is expected.’ I know that coming in. I’m just going to be better than I was before. I’m going to train harder than I was before.”

A second-round pick in 2020, Winfield says he practices making game-changing plays every day.

“I train like that and I kind of put myself through those situations, and then when it happens it’s because I’ve worked it, I’ve seen it already and I’ve played it a thousand times in my head,” he said. “Even after practice, I’ll get on the JUGS (machine) and I’m like a kid that’s shooting to make a buzzer-beater shot. I’m playing in my head, ‘OK, we’re down or we’re up three points, you know, and this team has to get to this certain yard line to kick a field goal and win the game. I’m in the middle of the field and I’m breaking on the ball and catching the ball and, Boom! Win the game.”

That’s what Mpagi was trying to get him to do a year ago after their workout in the park that day.

“I call her the best DB coach in Tampa,” Winfield said. “We’ve been together for a long time now. She’s been with me every step of the way, all the way from high school to college to here. She’s seen it all and I’m sure she’s shocked to see everything I’ve accomplished, because I’m sure she remembers me when I was 14 years old, a little scrawny kid. It’s probably amazing for her to see.”

That kid has grown to be about the same size as his father at 5-foot-9, 203 pounds. But he’s a giant in the game, signing a contract for roughly 10 times what he’s earned in four NFL seasons.

“I never gave up,” Winfield said. “I always just knew good things would happen if I continued to keep my head down and continued to work hard. That’s the one thing you can’t take away from me, and that’s my work ethic. I’m not the biggest, I’m not the fastest and I’m not the strongest. But mentally, I’m ready to go out there and give it my all. Mentally, I’ve got to use my advantage, and that’s my brain. To make the plays that I make, you’ve got to have that mental side of the game.”

Mgapi is a former track and field athlete at Rice.

INDIANAPOLIS

Colts EDGE KWITY PAYE is motivated because his Fifth Year Option was picked up.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com::

The Colts used their first-round pick on defensive end Laiatu Latu last month, but that was not a sign that they are looking to move on without another one of their first-round picks who plays the same position.

Kwity Paye joined the Colts at the top of the 2021 draft and he is set to remain with the team through at least the 2025 season because the Colts picked up their fifth-year option on his rookie deal in early May. That’s a fully guaranteed $13.4 million commitment from the team, but a contract extension that pushes his stay in Indianapolis even further is still out of reach and Paye said that having the option picked up only makes him want to work harder to show he should be around for the long term.

“To me, it’s just been more motivation,” Paye said, via Joel A. Erickson of the Indianapolis Star. “They’re giving me more opportunities to just add to the team, and just contribute to winning. . . . I’ve been improving every single year, so I’ve just got to keep doing that and show the team why I’m supposed to be here.”

Paye has 129 tackles, 18.5 sacks, three forced fumbles, and five fumble recoveries over his first three seasons. Boosting those totals while showing he can form a potent pair with Latu would make a strong argument for more years as a core member of the Colts defense.

JACKSONVILLE

Contract negotiations with QB TREVOR LAWRENCE are proceeding “nicely” per Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com.  This from Tyler Conway of Bleacher Report:

The Jacksonville Jaguars reportedly remain “all in” on Trevor Lawrence despite an up-and-down third season from the franchise quarterback.

ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported the Jaguars are committed to inking Lawrence to a long-term contract extension.

“I’m told that talks have been progressing fairly nicely, that certainly there’s a hope among both sides that they can get this done,” Fowler reported Sunday on SportsCenter. “He’s three years into his rookie deal so not urgent to have to get it done right this moment but Jacksonville, I’m told, is pretty committed to trying to get this done. This will also be a deal probably above that $50 million range but they are all in on Lawrence, they’ve been talking.”

Lawrence threw for 4,016 yards and 21 touchdowns against 14 interceptions in 2023. His interception rate nearly doubled, going from 1.4 percent to 2.5 percent, which was just 0.3 percent lower than his nightmare rookie season.

It’s fair to have concerns about Lawrence’s viability as a true franchise quarterback as he heads into his fourth NFL season. Most wrote off his rookie season as being caused by circumstance; Urban Meyer never fit as an NFL head coach, and Lawrence was left on an island with a weak supporting cast.

That said, the fact Lawrence regressed in 2023 rather than ascended to superstar status is alarming. We have one bad season, one good and one perfectly average three years into Lawrence’s career.

The overall sample would suggest Lawrence is closer to a slightly above-average NFL starter than a superstar. That’s not typically the type of player teams want to invest $50 million into, but Lawrence is 24 years old and plays arguably the most premium position in all of sports.

The Jaguars’ acquisition of Mac Jones this offseason should have no bearing on Lawrence’s status, as it was a low-cost add for a backup. Jones has been one of the NFL’s worst quarterbacks the last two seasons and has almost no chance of unseating Lawrence.

BUFFALO

S JORDAN POYER, now a Dolphin, holds his former teammate, QB JOSH ALLEN, in high regard.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

Jordan Poyer spent the past seven seasons manning the back end of the Bills’ defense but crossed over to division-rival Miami this offseason after Buffalo shed veteran defenders.

Poyer, who inked a one-year contract with the Dolphins, joined his former teammates over the weekend for Micah Hyde’s annual charity softball game in Buffalo. The safety noted that he didn’t “really get to have a proper sendoff or proper goodbye” after the Bills released him and he signed in Miami in March.

The 33-year-old used Sunday to close the loop but also gave some flowers to his former quarterback, Josh Allen.

“Seven years out here, man,” Poyer said. “I loved every moment of it. Thank you so much for allowing me to grow as a person, as a player. Teammates, coaches, everybody, man, I loved every moment of it. Sorry we couldn’t get it done, but you’ve got the best quarterback in the league. I know that might go viral, but it’s OK. I get to see y’all twice a year. I can’t wait. You guys come down to Miami. I get to come back to Orchard Park one more time.”

NEW YORK JETS

Coach Robert Saleh says OC Nathaniel Hackett is still growing as a coach.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

Last week, a report emerged that during this offseason, the Jets had tried to hire someone to run the offense over coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.

New York did not make that addition to its staff, leaving Hackett in charge of the unit for 2024.

Head coach Robert Saleh was asked about the report in his Tuesday press conference and said he had already addressed it at the league meeting in late March — even though the information was reported last week. Still, Saleh did confirm that Hackett will be the primary play-caller in 2024.

“You know, you’re always going to experience growth,” Saleh said of Hackett. “Last year, I think, was a tremendous learning experience for everybody — including myself. I think it’s about building an offense that can weather the storm of injury, right? Last year, we got kind of caught behind the eight ball with preparing — and, again, it’s all part of, you’re trying to install an offense and so when you’re trying to install an offense, you’re installing an offense with a plan that it’s going to stay healthy for the season in Year 1.

“Year 2 coming around, I think it’s evolving the offense that still keeps it where the offense can hum. I’m trying not to give away any thoughts or things we’re doing differently. But there’s going to be a tremendous learning experience for everybody in how to weather the storm in regards to injury.”

To that end, the Jets did sign veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor to be Aaron Rodgers’ backup and added multiple offensive linemen to beef up the depth on the unit. We’ll see if Rodgers’ return from a torn Achilles can be a recipe for success with Hackett calling the plays into the QB’s headset.

THIS AND THAT

ROOKIE QB RANGE FINDER

Chris Trapasso of CBSSports.com prepares us with the range of outcomes for the rookie QBs.

What’s the worst that could happen? A fair question to ask when a rookie quarterback is thrust onto an NFL field in his rookie season, especially if most believe he’s playing too soon.

Yet NFL coaches are people just like the rest of us, and society today isn’t too fond of waiting to get their young quarterbacks into a regular-season game. And as we’ve seen with the likes of C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, sometimes rookie passers can experience a best-case scenario in Year 1.

In this article, I’ve gone deep and gotten very specific in my determination of the best- and worst-case scenarios for the 2024 rookie quarterbacks, just like I did last year for Bryce Young, Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Co. As you’ll see below, the figures are based upon these quarterbacks actually getting a chance to play considerable snaps in their first seasons — which, of course, isn’t a guarantee for all those passers drafted early in late April.

For the sake of this piece, we’re going to assume the quarterbacks included all get a sizable opportunity. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are locks for that. Drake Maye, probably. J.J. McCarthy feels like the classic “he won’t need to play until December” rookie who’ll be on the field sooner than later, and Bo Nix, almost by default because of the rest of the Broncos quarterback depth chart, will play the vast majority of his rookie season. From there, I took liberties with how much above or below the averages I feel each quarterback could land in a best- and worst-case scenario.

To begin, I found parameters of expectations for these first-year passers. As a baseline, I used the seasons from the 18 quarterbacks who threw for at least 200 passes as a rookie over the past five seasons. Well actually, it’s 17 passers plus Brock Purdy. I included his gaudy first-year stats in San Francisco for the average of the entire group although he only threw 170 passes in his first NFL season because he essentially set a new standard in rookie quarterback efficiency in 2022.

Here’s a look:

                                                        COMP. %     YPA     TD %    INT %   RATING       SACK %

High mark (Justin Herbert, 2020)      66.6             7.3        5.2       1.7          98.3             5.1

Low mark (Zach Wilson, 2021)         55.6             5.8        2.3        2.9         69.7             10.3

Average of entire group                    62.5            6.8         3.7        2.2         85.6             7.8

Now, in a perfect world, we’d have a much larger sample size to conduct this study. However, NFL studies are not like most other studies in that a larger sample size can actually be counterproductive because of how swiftly the game changes for everyone on the field, most notably the quarterbacks. Including passers from even before, say, 2019 feels too outdated to be predictive whatsoever.

For context on the averages, the 61.5% completion was almost identical to Matthew Stafford last year. The 6.8 yards-per-attempt figure was just below the 6.9 YPA of Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert and Justin Fields in 2023. The average TD% of 3.8 was right between Trevor Lawrence (3.7%) and Geno Smith (4.0%) a season ago. The 2.2% interception rate was between Stafford and Patrick Mahomes. The collective 82.5 rating would’ve been smack dab between Gardner Minshew (84.6) and Fields (86.3), and the 7.8% sack rate was in the range of Lamar Jackson’s (7.5%) and Jake Browning (9.0%).

Now that you have genuine, stat-based expectations to refer to, let’s get to best- and worst-case scenarios for 2024 rookie passers.

(Before I begin … If you’re wondering if these are worthwhile to check and are predictive at all, here was the low-end projection for Bryce Young before his rookie season with the Panthers next to his actual statistics from Year 1.

Young’s worst-case scenario projection: 60% completion, 6.1 yards per attempt, 2,440 passing yards, 10 TD passes, 12 INTs, 32 sacks, 74.1 rating

Young’s actual 2023 season: 59.8% completion, 5.5 yards per attempt, 2,877 passing yards, 11 TD passes, 10 INTs, 62 sacks, 73.7 rating

Caleb Williams

CHI • QB

Best-case scenario: 65% completion, 7.5 yards per attempt, 3,750 passing yards, 25 TD passes, 5 INTs, 28 sacks, 100.0 rating

Worst-case scenario: 60% completion, 6.6 yards per attempt, 3,300 passing yards, 17 TD passes, 13 INTs, 45 sacks, 82.5 rating

C.J. Stroud threw 499 passes in 2023 in his dazzling NFL debut campaign, so I’m using 500 attempts as the benchmark for Williams in these projections. Stroud did miss two games last season due to injury.

Because I believe Williams will be chucking it downfield relatively often — like Stroud did — I don’t foresee, even on the high end, a super-high completion rate for the Bears rookie. But the yards per attempt could absolutely be robust while the sack rate could be low, given how ridiculously nimble he is when pressure mounts.

Williams is such an accurate thrower and has a fine receiving trio at his disposal. I would be completely floored if his completion rate is under 60%. Just couldn’t bring myself to project any lower than that. And many of his low-end projections are closer to the average than Wilson’s 2021.

Jayden Daniels

WAS • QB

Best-case scenario: 67% completion, 7.0 yards per attempt, 4,015 passing yards, 28 TD passes, 8 INTs, 44 sacks, 99.1 rating

Worst-case scenario: 61% completion, 6.3 yards per attempt, 3,630 passing yards, 22 TD passes, 13 INTs, 55 sacks, 83.8 rating

I don’t feel way out on a limb suggesting the Bears defense to be ahead of the Commanders, which should lead to more pass attempts for Daniels in a few more come-from-behind situations than Williams. So his projections were based on 550 attempts as a rookie. In this five-year sample, Lawrence has the most rookie-year attempts at 602, for perspective.

For as magnificent of a downfield thrower as Daniels was at LSU, I envision more high-percentage throws in the Washington pass game in 2024, that should boost his completion rate. Really, in that receiver room it’s Terry McLaurin and a collection of question marks and uncertain commodities.

And the one clear weakness Daniels demonstrated as a prospect was how frequently pressures turned to sacks, which is why both of his sack projections are rather high.

Drake Maye

NE • QB

Best-case scenario: 62% completion, 7.0 yards per attempt, 3,240 passing yards, 23 TD passes, 10 INTs, 29 sacks, 91.5 rating

Worst-case scenario: 58% completion, 6.4 yards per attempt. 2,700 passing yards, 17 TD passes, 14 INTs, 38 sacks, 75 rating

Basing these on 450 passes from Maye in his rookie season. While the Patriots will probably be trailing more than they’re leading, I do expect the defense to keep them in games, thereby giving offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt ample reason to run the football in throwback outings of 20-ish years ago that New England will attempt to win 17-14 without putting too much on Maye’s plate in Year 1.

I do believe in his arm talent and quarterback amnesia, so there is a world in which Maye lifts the Patriots’ recently stagnant pass game. There also is a world in which Maye is hindered by the lack of top-end receiving talent and youth on the roster.

J.J. McCarthy

MIN • QB

Best-case scenario: 67% completion, 8.0 yards per attempt, 3,360 passing yards, 21 TD passes, 8 INTs, 25 sacks, 100.8 rating

Worst-case scenario: 62% completion, 6.7 yards per attempt, 1,407 passing yards, 6 TD passes, 5 INTs, 17 sacks, 81.1 rating

For the best-case scenario I went 420 attempts for McCarthy, which averages out to 30 attempts across 14 contests. No one should be shocked if Sam Darnold gets pulled after three games in 2024. Remember, he has to clearly beat out a shiny new first-round pick in camp, too, which in my mind, is far from a guarantee, although we’ll hear all about the Vikings taking it slowly with McCarthy until camp begins.

Given the time-tested excellence of the Shanahan-based offense — and how well Kevin O’Connell operated with Kirk Cousins, Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens in 2023 — McCarthy could be the most efficient passer of the group from a yards-per-attempt perspective.

For the worst-case scenario, I decided on 210 attempts for McCarthy, which is 30 attempts in seven games. And that would represent a two-layered worst-case scenario for the rookie — he doesn’t look ready in camp nor the preseason, and Darnold plays reasonable football for 10 games.

Beyond the schematic advantage McCarthy has in Minnesota, he also finds himself with a luxurious offensive line and skill-position group. His completion rate won’t be below 60%, and his worst YPA would be close to the group’s average.

Bo Nix

DEN • QB

Best-case scenario: 65% completion, 7.2 yards per attempt, 3,780 passing yards, 26 TD passes, 8 INTs, 26 sacks, 96.3 rating

Worst-case scenario: 58% completion, 6.2 yards per attempt, 3,255 passing yards, 18 TD passes, 12 INTs, 32 sacks, 78.2 rating

I went with 525 pass attempts for both scenarios for Nix — close to the 521 attempts Mac Jones made in 2021. Either way, the Broncos are riding with Nix in 2024. They have to.

While I absolutely am with everyone who believes Sean Payton will provide Nix with a very quarterback-friendly system in 2024, the rookie will eventually have to stretch defenses vertically, and I didn’t think he was overly accurate downfield when he wasn’t throwing to wide-open receivers at Oregon. And that speaks to my projection of a lower “best-case” completion rate than maybe you expected. In the best-case scenario, Payton should keep him fairly efficient throwing the ball.

On the low end of the spectrum, Nix won’t have a ghastly season because of the insulation Payton can provide, but the receiver group isn’t formidable and I do think his lack of premier physical talent could hurt him more often than not. Either way, not a huge range for Nix, which is probably a good thing.

BROADCAST NEWS

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com says NFL owners should want to know who (singular or plural) was behind the leak of select emails, unrelated to the matter being litigated, that took down Jon Gruden.  But with a panel of the Nevada Supreme Court deciding that employee arbitration applied to Gruden for acts committed when he wasn’t an employee, Florio feels the truth will die in darkness.

When a company is sued by a current or former employee, the primary focus usually becomes winning the case and not getting to the bottom of what caused it. It’s about circling the wagons, not pursuing the truth.

The Jon Gruden lawsuit against the NFL and Commissioner Roger Goodell has sparked an extended effort by the league to force the case into its preferred forum: The secret, rigged, kangaroo court of arbitration ultimately controlled by Goodell. There has been, by all appearances, little or no effort to figure out who decided to spark Gruden’s ouster.

Last week, the league won the arbitration issue before the Nevada Supreme Court. Gruden still has more moves to make in the court system, in Nevada and beyond. He could still force the case into open court, where it would all play out in public view — and where (absent a settlement) we’d all know who targeted Gruden.

Gruden clearly was targeted, by someone. Setting aside the question of whether he should have remained in the job given the emails he sent, someone weaponized a handful of message from some 650,000 confidential documents collected in the Washington investigation and leaked them first to the Wall Street Journal and then to the New York Times before Gruden resigned under pressure.

A very small universe of people had access to the Gruden emails. It wouldn’t be difficult for the league to figure out who leaked them. But the league’s primary concern for now is to beat back the Gruden lawsuit, not to figure out who used the emails to take down Gruden.

The NFL constantly harps on the integrity of the game. Once a given season begins, the NFL is hesitant about changing the rules, in order to protect the integrity of the entire season.

In Gruden’s case, the league (as we reported at the time) had the emails in June 2021. If someone believed Gruden should not be coaching in the NFL because of emails sent while he was working for ESPN, it could have been handled then, giving the Raiders a chance to replace him before the start of training camp. Instead, someone waited until the Raiders were 3-1 before making the first leak, two days before a game. The Raiders lost to the Bears and then, the next day, the second leak happened — and Gruden was gone.

Five games in, the Raiders’ season was plunged into chaos. Regardless of whether Gruden deserved what he got, the Raiders didn’t. The issue should have been handled before the season started or after it ended. Whoever forced the matter by leaking the emails compromised the integrity of the 2021 season.

In an age of legalized betting, the conduct also compromised the integrity of various futures wagers. Anyone who bet on the Raiders to capture the division or to win more games than the projected over-under or to win the Super Bowl had those wagers turned upside down when someone initiated the process that forced Gruden out during the season.

Again, the NFL’s primary concern at this point is winning the Gruden case. Still, as the owners gather this week and potentially get an update about the case, one or more owners (starting with Mark Davis) should be asking very pointed questions about why the Code Red was ordered when it was, and whether the league is taking that wrinkle as seriously as it should.

Without Gruden, the Raiders made it to the playoffs and nearly defeated the eventual AFC Champions in the wild-card round. What would have happened if Gruden had been allowed to finish the year? What would have happened if Gruden had left in June and Davis would have had a chance to replace him before the season started?

Even without legalized gambling, the integrity of the game — and specifically the integrity of the Raiders’ season — required something more strategic than someone deciding during the season to kneecap Gruden. The owners should want to know who did it and to ensure it never happens again.

The problem is that, by focusing on that issue while Gruden still has active litigation pending, the league could strengthen Gruden’s case. Regardless, it’s obvious that someone who had access to the Gruden emails compromised the integrity of the season by leaking them four games in. If the league cares as much about the integrity of the league as it claims it does, it would take this issue far more seriously, even if doing so compels a settlement with Gruden.