How soon will C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love be considered in the top tier of NFL quarterbacks?

C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans and Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers set the league on fire in 2023 in their first full seasons as NFL starting quarterbacks. Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year; Love finished second in the league in passing touchdowns. Both quarterbacks won a playoff game in convincing fashion. Love closed out the regular season ranked fifth among all starters in EPA per dropback (0.12); Stroud finished sixth (0.11). How quickly the league’s fans will move on from other young success stories (Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence) and old heads (Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers) if Stroud and Love take another leap in 2024 will be eye-opening. We have every reason to believe that both quarterbacks will continue their ascent.

Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik already took head-coach interviews after just one season working with Stroud, and Packers head coach and offensive play caller Matt LaFleur should continue to be revered as one of the league’s best. Green Bay’s flight of young pass catchers will only continue to get better as they develop with LaFleur and Love at the helm, and the team added some firepower this offseason in former Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs and first-round offensive tackle Jordan Morgan. It’s the same sweet song in Houston, too. Wide receiver Nico Collins is entering a contract year coming off a monster season with Stroud in 2023. Veteran wideout Stefon Diggs could be a one-year wonder for the team after the team traded for him and renegotiated his contract in early April. The Texans also traded a late-round pick for former Bengals running back Joe Mixon and invested a second-round pick in Notre Dame’s Blake Fisher to compete at right tackle. All of the stars are aligning for both Love and Stroud to enter a new stratosphere in 2024.

– – –

With over a week to think about it, ESPN has a panel of experts that offer their opinions of which draft class will be instant gold.

Which rookie class will make the biggest impact this season?

Stephania Bell, fantasy football analyst: Chicago Bears. The drafting of Caleb Williams alone is going to make its mark starting in Week 1. The Bears complemented the Williams pick with Rome Odunze, and the two already have chemistry, making their joint transition to the pro level that much easier. The rookies were set up for success with the team’s structuring of the rest of the offense this offseason, and the defense should ensure they stay on the field plenty.

Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers drafted two tone-setting starters on the offensive line with left tackle Troy Fautanu and center Zach Frazier in the first and second rounds, respectively, while fourth-round guard Mason McCormick adds depth up front. Wide receiver Roman Wilson brings toughness and big-play juice from the slot, plus linebacker Payton Wilson has three-down traits.

Mike Clay, fantasy football analyst: Washington Commanders. Washington selected franchise quarterback and Week 1 starter Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick and then proceeded to select five players on Day 2. Those selections included defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton and corner Mike Sainristil, who figure to immediately join the defensive rotation, as well as potential Week 1 offensive starters in tight end Ben Sinnott, versatile offensive lineman Brandon Coleman and slot wide receiver Luke McCaffrey.

Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Philadelphia Eagles. There’s no way around it: Philly had a great draft. Cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean signified tremendous value at picks No. 22 and 40, respectively, and will contribute right away. Edge rusher Jalyx Hunt has a big fan in coordinator Vic Fangio. There is big upside. And don’t be surprised when sixth-round receiver Johnny Wilson, a standout at FSU, contributes early.

Matt Miller, NFL draft analyst: Los Angeles Rams. Life after Aaron Donald begins with the 2024 draft class. The Rams selected Jared Verse, Braden Fiske and Tyler Davis to reload upfront. If you’re looking for a year-one impact, Fiske and Verse will be counted on to provide the team’s pass rush and set the culture standard with its former leader now in retirement.

Eric Moody, fantasy and sports betting analyst: Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals made significant moves in this draft. They secured two standout players, wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and defensive tackle Darius Robinson, who are expected to have an immediate impact. Additionally, the Cardinals addressed their needs in other positions by acquiring cornerbacks Max Melton and Elijah Jones. With these additions, Arizona’s 2024 draft class is poised to make a difference right away.

Jason Reid, senior Andscape writer: Kansas City Chiefs. It’s stunning that the Chiefs maneuvered into the position to pick WR Xavier Worthy at No. 28. They moved up to get a player who was clocked at 4.21 seconds in the 40-yard dash — the fastest time ever — and he’s the guy quarterback Patrick Mahomes wanted most. Also, don’t be surprised if massive offensive lineman Kingsley Suamataia, the 63rd overall pick, is the Chiefs’ Week 1 starter at left tackle.

Jordan Reid, NFL draft analyst: Steelers. Their first four picks all have pathways to seeing significant snaps early on. Fautanu and Frazier are much-needed plug-and-play starters along the offensive line. Roman Wilson and Payton Wilson are also two prospects who could be key contributors at some point, as both have pro-ready games immediately.

Aaron Schatz, NFL writer: Los Angeles Chargers. Joe Alt will be a force as the starting right tackle. Junior Colson will likely wear the green dot as a starting inside linebacker and will lead the team in tackles. Ladd McConkey will be featured as the slot receiver, and either Brenden Rice and/or Cornelius Johnson will get serious playing time despite waiting until the seventh round to be selected.

Mike Tannenbaum, NFL front office insider: Bears. Pairing the 2022 Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Williams up with Odunze, last season’s FBS receiving yards leader, will make Chicago’s offense immediately better, assuming its offensive line can hold up.

Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Bears. The obvious answer is also the right one in this case: Chicago walked away from the draft with an elite QB prospect who has a great chance to be an instant upgrade over Justin Fields, along with a top wide receiver in Odunze. A previously mediocre offense suddenly looks dangerous.

Field Yates, NFL draft analyst: Cardinals. I defined the theme of Arizona’s trade as just checking boxes: The team filled need after need after need with good players. Harrison, Robinson and either Melton or Jones should start, while Trey Benson, Tip Reiman, Isaiah Adams and Dadrion Taylor-Demerson could all have meaningful roles. I was extremely impressed by the haul.

DETROIT

What Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com hears about the Lions and their trade up to get CB TERRION ARNOLD:

It’s possible the Lions jumped an NFC North rival for a top corner.

As Detroit moved from No. 29 to 24 to snag corner Terrion Arnold, the Packers at No. 25 were among the teams that Arnold’s camp had firmly on the radar entering the 20s. The belief is Green Bay had Arnold rated highly.

Green Bay’s star corner, Jaire Alexander, was a 2018 first-round selection at No. 18, two picks ahead of Detroit. The Lions got Frank Ragnow with that pick, so things worked out well for both teams. But at least Detroit prevented Green Bay from potentially getting another star corner. Detroit coveted Arnold’s man-coverage traits and all-around game.

“As far as talent, speed, coverage, ball production, tackling, size, ability to play inside and outside — I had him as the best corner,” an AFC scout said of Arnold.

PHILADELPHIA

Here is what Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com hears about the Eagles draft:

Howie Roseman, the NFL’s most aggressive general manager, parlayed eight trades into an impressive-on-paper draft.

One AFC scout lauded Roseman’s haul, which reflected restraint. A team that typically prefers 300-pounders in the first round had high grades on at least eight offensive linemen yet took the first corner off the board in Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell. And to get defensive back Cooper DeJean at No. 40, before the Day 2 corner run ignited — DeJean was the first of four straight corners selected in the second round — was peak forecasting.

The Eagles found additional defensive value beyond DeJean. They will likely start him on the outside and see what he can handle from there, and are cognizant of giving him too many responsibilities too early, despite his versatility.

“[DeJean] is good at everything — not sure he’s elite in one area but his bust factor is really low,” an AFC scout said.

Of Philadelphia’s other defensive picks, the scout said, “[Defensive coordinator] Vic Fangio loves [third-round edge rusher] Jalyx Hunt. He’s got some high-end traits. And even [sixth-rounder] Johnny Wilson is [physically gifted]. He’s got major ability.”

– – –

Shades of Harold Carmichael.  Dave Zangaro of NBCSportsPhiladelphia on the Eagles huge rookie receiver.

When you hear about a 6-foot-6, 231-pound receiver, the next question is naturally about a potential move to tight end.

That’s not how the Eagles view sixth-round pick Johnny Wilson.

“I play receiver,” Wilson said at Eagles rookie camp last week. “A lot of people have their opinions on what I should be. But I’m on this team, I’m playing for the Eagles. There’s been no talk of me being a tight end.”

The Eagles really do see Wilson as a receiver. And while there aren’t many receivers as big as him in the NFL, they think his size can be an advantage and they see more quickness than you’d expect given that size.

After drafting Wilson in the sixth-round out of Florida State, the Eagles were consistent about their plan to keep him at wide receiver.

“He’s — what’s the word?” GM Howie Roseman said.

“He’s unique,” head coach Nick Sirianni filled in. “He’s unusual.”

Yeah, Wilson really is unusual. At the Combine, he measured in at 6-6 3/8 and 231 pounds, putting him in the 99th percentile in height among receivers and the 97th percentile in weight.

But the measurement that really stands out is his 84 1/2-inch wingspan. That’s the largest wingspan ever for a receiver at the Combine, according to ProFootballFocus.

“Being this size and being able to do some of the things I can do with my body, getting in and out of my breaks and having super long arms, sometimes it’s an advantage, especially against a lot of smaller corners and smaller defenders,” Wilson said. “Over the years, I’ve tried to do a lot of training and just use my body to my advantage.”

In his two seasons at Florida State, Wilson averaged 18.0 yards per catch. But after a five-touchdown season in 2022, Wilson caught just two touchdown passes in 2023 and they came in the same game. So he was surprisingly kept out of the end zone in nine of 10 games last season.

That’s such a surprise because you’d imagine that a receiver that’s 6-foot-6 would be a weapon in the red zone. And Wilson clearly thinks of himself as a red zone weapon.

When asked about his favorite target down there, Wilson confidently said the fade.

And when asked how teams tried to defend it, he said, “If I drop it.”

In his two seasons at Florida State, Wilson caught 84 passes for 1,514 yards and 7 touchdowns. Wilson caught 19 of his 42 contested catch targets, according to PFF. He also projects mostly as an outside receiver; over 90% of his targets came outside in 2023.

The Eagles see Wilson as a receiver because his production at Florida State came on the outside, running routes, not blocking defensive ends.

“I think he can run the full route tree,” Roseman said. “I think a lot of times you do that when guys don’t have the lower body flexibility to get in and out of their breaks. We don’t see that with Johnny.”

Sirianni is a former college receiver and has coached that position in the NFL. He likes what he sees from Wilson.

“I value the play strength, and so it doesn’t necessarily ever have to be about the actual size,” Sirianni said. “If they play strong, you love that, right, because it’s a game that requires strength.

“That doesn’t matter if you’re in the interior of the offensive line or out there playing wide receiver. Again, the strong guys can come in all shapes and sizes. So, we really value that in the wide receiver position. The quickness, the play strength, and he has that. For his size he has good quickness. So, we’re really looking forward to working with him.”

What the Eagles do see is a giant receiver who can use his unique frame to his advantage. While there aren’t very many receivers his size in the NFL, he has had a few to look up to. Perhaps, Wilson was pandering a bit last week, but he mentioned Harold Carmichael specifically.

The Pro Football Hall of Famer was a star in Philly in the 70s and early 80s and was known for his size at 6-foot-8.

“I loved seeing his highlights and his film play,” Wilson said.

Carmichael is around the team quite often these days but Wilson hasn’t yet met him just yet. He will. And Carmichael can give him some tips.

But most of Wilson’s coaching will come from receivers coach Aaron Moorehead. While Moorehead isn’t quite as big as Wilson, he did have an NFL career at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, so he knows about the advantages of using a bigger frame.

“He was a great receiver when he played. He’s definitely tall too,” Wilson said. “Since I started building that relationship with him since we first met, when I came on my 30 visit and he was at my pro day, he has always been trying to give me those tips.

‘You’re a bigger guy, so you can always use this to your advantage.’ Having a guy that has somewhat of the same build as me, it’s definitely helped a lot.”

ATLANTA

QB KIRK COUSINS is a Falcon because the Vikings were up front about their desire to draft a young quarterback.  The Falcons were not.  Albert Breer:

I do have one last take on the Atlanta Falcons’ handling of the quarterback situation. And that’s that I would 100% understand if Kirk Cousins is still stinging a bit from the whole ordeal.

Here’s why—a reason he decided to leave Minnesota is because the Vikings were very up front with the 35-year-old about the possibility that, even in the case he stayed, they’d take a quarterback of the future high in the draft. Tying that together with the team’s willingness to guarantee part, but not all, of a second year on another contract, Cousins figured that, if he stayed, there was a good shot that he’d be on the move in 2025.

I know Cousins appreciated how open the Vikings were about their draft strategy, even if it meant him leaving.

So if you were him, how would you feel when that call came, as his new team was on the clock, to explain how the Falcons were taking his heir apparent, Michael Penix Jr., with the eighth pick? Now, I do understand why Atlanta felt the need to keep it quiet, and why GM Terry Fontenot’s experience in New Orleans in 2017, when the Chiefs knew the Saints coveted Patrick Mahomes and jumped ahead of them to get him, marked the decision not to tell Cousins of their plans.

Still, it had to be a crappy call to take if you were Cousins, considering the basis of the decision you’d made six weeks earlier. It remains to be seen, of course, if that’ll lead to any sort of early fissure in the player-team relationship there. I think they’ll be able to get past it, because head coach Raheem Morris is a phenomenal relationship guy, and Cousins is an adult. But if there are early bumps in the season, this one will be interesting to watch.

Were the Raiders interested?  Would Cousins, who has family in Georgia, have been more interested in Vegas if he had fully known of Atlanta’s intentions?

Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com has “context”:

The Michael Penix Jr. pick has befuddled front offices around the league. Here’s a bit of context behind the pick:

Word began to spread in NFL circles on the Saturday before the draft that the Falcons loved Penix, to the extent that he ranked as high as their No. 2 overall quarterback in the draft. On April 5, Falcons brass flew from Atlanta to Seattle to watch Penix throw for a few hours in a private setting, then turned around and flew home. That tells a lot.

Owner Arthur Blank looms large here. I’m told he fully endorsed long-term stability at the position, which Kirk Cousins, at age 35, cannot satisfy to the same degree. Blank had two quarterbacks — Michael Vick and Matt Ryan — controlling his offense for the better part of two decades. Blank is not used to the QB carousel.

I do think the coaching calendar played a factor in Atlanta’s decision to sign Cousins even while continuing to scout quarterbacks in the draft. By the time Raheem Morris was hired and fleshed out his staff, the Falcons were pressed against free agency. Cousins was viewed as a sure thing. But the final four to six weeks before the draft is when coaches put their stamp on draft scouting, which helps explain why Morris and his staff would also zero in on Penix.

CAROLINA

Joseph Person of The Athletic on whether or not the Panthers are interested in bringing CB STEPHON GILMORE back to the Carolinas to perhaps close out his career:

The NFL isn’t the only business that likes to fill voids with bright, shiny objects. Media outlets often do the same, which brings us to Stephon Gilmore.

Since Jadeveon Clowney stumped for his former South Pointe High and South Carolina teammate in late March, there have been lots of words spoken and written — including several on these pages — about the veteran cornerback. This despite nothing actually happening between Gilmore and the Panthers over the past five-plus weeks.

The Panthers’ potential interest in Gilmore makes sense in some respects. Though general manager Dan Morgan made a few moves to address the corner position in free agency and the draft, there’s still a feeling the Panthers need to do more after trading Donte Jackson to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the deal that brought wide receiver Diontae Johnson to Charlotte.

Gilmore made the Pro Bowl as an alternate selection in 2021 after the Panthers traded for him in the wake of Jaycee Horn’s foot injury. Gilmore then started 32 of 33 games over the next two seasons with the Indianapolis Colts and Dallas Cowboys, with a pair of interceptions at both stops.

But he’ll turn 34 in September and was scheduled to undergo offseason labrum surgery after tearing it in the Cowboys’ regular-season finale against the Washington Commanders, according to The Dallas Morning News. Gilmore, who wore a shoulder harness in Dallas’ playoff loss to the Green Bay Packers, has logged more than 10,000 defensive snaps over his 12 seasons.

It’s fair to wonder whether the Panthers — with about $9.1 million in salary-cap space before signing their draft picks, according to the NFL Players Association database — might look for a younger, more cost-effective option to supplement their cornerbacks.

Playing with Clowney in the shadow of their Rock Hill, S.C., hometown would have its benefits. But Gilmore likely has certain contractual goals in mind, as well as other factors he’s considering. Bottom line: There’s been no movement on this front despite the media interest. Maybe something will materialize with Gilmore closer to training camp, but nothing’s happening now.

NEW ORLEANS

Some NFL execs are wondering if QB SPENCER RATTLER was a shrewd Saints draft pick?

South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler’s fall to the fifth round was, in part, a need issue. Two teams extremely high on him — the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos — drafted quarterbacks in the top 12. That essentially left the Las Vegas Raiders, who had made the calculation that an Aidan O’Connell-Gardner Minshew combo alleviated the need to reach for a quarterback.

But make no mistake, Rattler is not perceived as 138 picks worse than Bo Nix — some evaluators had him awfully close to the same tier as Nix.

One team source had zero issues with the perceived image concerns facing Rattler, whose appearance in the documentary “QB1” during his high school career did not portray his personality in the best light.

“Really didn’t harp on it much — it wasn’t a big thing,” the source said. “He’s matured a lot since then, like we all have. If there was a camera in my face when I was in high school, I wouldn’t have looked great, either. He was impressive in his interviews.”

SAN FRANCISCO

Jeremy Fowler on how NFL execs are keeping an eye on the 49ers receivers position:

Much of the league was keeping a close eye on the 49ers’ handling of the wide receiver position throughout the draft. Multiple teams told me they had interest in Brandon Aiyuk, but they believed the 49ers wanted a first-round pick for him, with one comparing the situation to that of A.J. Brown, who went from Tennessee to Philadelphia in 2022 in exchange for the 18th pick. The Eagles then signed him to a four-year, $100 million contract. Trading for Aiyuk would have required a new deal and a premium pick.

The 49ers did discuss Deebo Samuel with teams on Day 2 of the draft, but a source said definitively two hours before the second round that San Francisco “isn’t moving him.”

The intrigue deepened when San Francisco took Florida wideout Ricky Pearsall — a player most teams had pegged as a second-round pick — at No. 31.

“He can be a nice No. 2 or No. 3 receiver, a good player, but that was a bit of a reach, in my opinion,” an NFC personnel evaluator said of Pearsall.

Added an AFC exec: “They wanted a route runner like the Rams have in Puka [Nacua]. Probably see him in that same role.”

Scouts thought second-round corner Renardo Green was a bit of a reach, too, but it’s hard to argue the 49ers don’t maximize talent under Kyle Shanahan.

DENVER

Jeremy Fowler hears the Broncos were fixated on QB BO NIX at number 12:

Sean Payton told reporters on Day 2 of the draft that he bluffed trade talks with Denver’s No. 12 overall pick.

“I was actively involved in trying to pretend we were moving forward,” said Payton, seemingly a nod to baiting Minnesota into moving up from No. 11, which the Vikings did, taking over the Jets’ No. 10 slot.

Turns out Payton was indeed calling around. The Bears heard from Denver and one other team while on the clock at No. 9. It wasn’t clear at the time which player Denver was targeting in any potential trade up, or if it even had a target.

But the Broncos have made clear they were all-in on Bo Nix — “‘our guy the whole way,” as one source put it.

Here’s to assuming Denver wanted the Vikings to take McCarthy off the board, clearing the way for Nix, since the teams picking in the 9-10-11 range were unlikely to be in the market for him.

KANSAS CITY

Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com assesses the candidates for the Chiefs big season opener:

The NFL is getting used to the Kansas City Chiefs winning Super Bowls, and as a result, it is getting used to the Chiefs playing the first game of the NFL season.

The Chiefs will host the opening game of the NFL regular season for the third time in five years, a reward each reigning champion enjoys. And once again, we’re wondering which opponent the Chiefs will get. The NFL typically tries to get a marquee opponent to face the champs and get the season going.

We know the eight candidates for opening night, since we have known each team’s opponents for the 2024 season for months. Here is a guess at who will kick off the season at Kansas City:

No shot: Saints, Broncos, Buccaneers

There wouldn’t be a lot of buzz for any of these teams. The Buccaneers would be the best of the group but … nah. The only reason any of these three teams would end up on opening night is the NFL knows that we’re all going to be watching even if Liberty North High School is the opponent.

Likely not but a slight chance: Chargers, Raiders

It’s rare for the NFL to make the opening game a divisional contest. The last time that happened was 2012 when the Dallas Cowboys played the New York Giants. The only other time was 2008, also with the Giants. Since we don’t have to worry about the NFL’s infatuation with the NFC East for this year’s opening game, it seems unlikely they’d match up the Chiefs with an AFC West opponent. Maybe Jim Harbaugh’s debut with the Chargers or the Raiders having been the last team to beat the Chiefs (and bragging a bit about it) might move the needle. But it seems unlikely.

Probably saving it for later: Ravens

The NFL likes to give us a good game in the opener, but not too good. Again, we’re watching no matter what. Last season, games against the Bills or Bengals would have been spicier than Lions-Chiefs, but those Bills and Bengals games ended up getting prime real estate for the networks in the late Sunday afternoon slot. The best possible game for this season’s opener might be an AFC championship game rematch with the Ravens, but you’ll probably see that one in prime time this fall.

This would be fun, and might be it: Texans

The Texans will get plenty of prime-time love from the schedule makers this season. C.J. Stroud is an instant star, and the addition of Stefon Diggs makes the Texans one of the NFL’s most watchable teams. Stroud vs. Patrick Mahomes would be great theater. If this ends up being the choice, nobody would complain. It would probably be a great game, too.

This is probably the one: Bengals

The Bengals didn’t have a great season in 2023, but a lot of that had to do with Joe Burrow’s injury. With Burrow back, we can crank the Bengals-Chiefs rivalry back up. Because the Bengals weren’t a big factor last season, we might forget the heat from the Chiefs-Bengals playoff battles, the “Burrowhead” talk and Travis Kelce calling the mayor of Cincinnati a “jabroni” after Kansas City beat the Bengals in an AFC championship game. There will also be interest in seeing how Burrow looks after a wrist injury ended his season last November. Unless there’s concern that Burrow might not be ready — and there doesn’t seem to be much worry over that — this seems like an easy pick for the NFL, though the league has a few good candidates for opening night.

LAS VEGAS

Jeremy Fowler hears the Raiders liked QB MICHAEL PENIX, but not as much as the Falcons:

Much was made of the Raiders’ draft plans — and ultimate inaction — at quarterback. Here’s what I know: They explored trading for Jayden Daniels, but any attempts were futile due to Washington’s stance that it wasn’t dealing the No. 2 pick. Las Vegas also had interest in Michael Penix Jr., but most likely not in a trade up. He would have been considered at No. 13 or in a trade back. I heard from multiple people in Vegas that the team did not want to reach.

“We ended up with one of the best weapons in the draft,” said a team source about tight end Brock Bowers, the eventual 13th pick. “Extremely versatile player graded high by everyone.”

In fact, multiple NFL scouts told me that Bowers might have been the best overall player in the entire field, but positional needs pushed him out of the top 10.

BALTIMORE

Jeremy Fowler hears that the Ravens found late round gold in CB NATE WIGGINS:

When I asked scouts for their impressions of the draft, one common refrain was echoed: Did Baltimore get another great corner unexpectedly?

No. 30 overall pick Nate Wiggins didn’t receive the same mock draft love as Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell or Alabama’s Terrion Arnold, but several scouts had him as the top corner and many love his game.

“He’s smooth, and even though he’s thin, he plays big,” an AFC personnel exec said. “That was the steal of the first round for me.”

Added an AFC scout: “He’s terrible against the run, but if you’re asking him to cover, he’s the best in the class.”

CINCINNATI

CLEVELAND

PITTSBURGH

For most of the last 6 years (they were 12-4 in 2020), the Steelers have settled into a spot just above mediocrity.  Which leaves former Steeler Willie Cohen among those starting to get restless with Coach Mike Tomlin.  Andrew Buller-Ross at Sportsnaut:

Last year, we saw Mike Tomlin lead the Pittsburgh Steelers to a 10-7 record, earning a Wild Card playoff berth. While their playoff berth was unexpected after falling to 7-7, there were many parts throughout the season where outside noise suggested either Pittsburgh could move on from Tomlin or that the coach could seek to land with another team.

Yet, once Tomlin avoided the first losing season of his 17-year NFL head coaching career, all talks about the Pittsburgh coach’s future disappeared.

Now, (Steelers alum Willie Cohen), who once played for Tomlin and even won Super Bowl XLIII with him says the Steelers head coach “should be on the hot seat” entering the 2024 season.

“When you talk about his overall record, you talk about in 17 seasons, he has an 8-10 playoff record, only four seasons with playoff wins and he’s had some bonafide teams even with Ben Roethlisberger. The issue with Mike Tomlin right now is he wins games he’s supposed to win, but he loses games he shouldn’t lose. Go back to this year. He lost to the New England Patriots, Arizona Cardinals. Had no business losing those games. And now Steeler Nation is frustrated. Because they’re looking at an organization right now that is well above average, and then they lose bonehead games. I’m saying to myself, well, who are the Pittsburgh Steelers? Are they the bullies, or are they the dweebs right now? If you lost to the Patriots and the Cardinals, you look like the dweebs.”

Now that the Steelers have revamped their offense with Russell Wilson leading the way, expectations are even higher in Pittsburgh entering the 2024 season. While it seems weird to say Tomlin will be on the hot seat, if he fails to get more out of the Steelers this season, he could very well find his seat heating up as the year goes on.

INDIANAPOLIS

Jeremy Fowler on what he’s hearing about EDGE LAIATU LATU:

With the No. 15 pick, the Colts got perhaps the best pure pass-rusher in the draft in Laiatu Latu, who probably would have been a top-10 pick if not for neck fusion surgery in college.

But Latu’s pre-draft medical process was smooth, and the Colts were far from the only team that was comfortable with his medical — Denver was another. Had the Broncos passed on Bo Nix at No. 12, Latu would have been under firm consideration. And teams I’ve talked to believe Atlanta had targeted him in a trade back into the first round, which never happened.

The only team I heard would have been uneasy about the medical was Miami, and for good reason: The Dolphins’ starting edge rushers, Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, are both recovering from major injuries. They needed a healthy edge rusher, which they got with Penn State’s Chop Robinson.

“There’s debate about whether Latu will have a long career or play well into a second contract, but in the short term he should be great,” an NFL executive said. “And he might be fine long term, too.”

TENNESSEE

With the signing of WR TYLER BOYD, the Titans have an outstanding receiving corps if this was 2019 or 2020.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

One of the top remaining free agents on the market has found a new home.

Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports that wide receiver Tyler Boyd has agreed to a deal with the Titans. It’s a one-year contract for Boyd that is worth up to $4.5 million, but the full details of his compensation are not known.

Boyd will be reunited with Titans head coach Brian Callahan as both men were with the Bengals before making the move to Nashville. Boyd was a 2016 second-round pick in Cincinnati and he had 513 catches for 6,000 yards and 31 touchdowns in 120 regular season games for the team. He also had 21 catches for 199 yards and a touchdown in seven postseason appearances.

The Titans have also signed Calvin Ridley this offseason and they have DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks back from last season. Callahan and others with the Titans have talked up Burks at points this offseason, but the move to sign Boyd wouldn’t seem to be a good development for a first-round pick from a previous regime.

In 2019, Boyd, Ridley and Hopkins combined for 257 catches.  In 2020, they had 284.

NEW ENGLAND

EDGE MATTHEW JUDON is looking forward to 2024.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Patriots edge rusher Matthew Judon played only four games in 2023, tearing his biceps and ending his season. The Patriots went 4-13 and coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Mac Jones departed in the offseason.

Judon can’t wait for this season.

He insists he’s “back 100 percent” and ready for a comeback.

“I’m out for a vendetta,” Judon said on The Money Down podcast, via NFL Media. “I’ve got shit to prove, and I’ve got stuff I want to get done in my career. Personally, I’m on all B.S. all year. I’m about to turn the dial back.”

Judon, 31, made four consecutive Pro Bowls before his injury and was coming off a career-best 15.5 sacks in 2022. He has 66.5 sacks in his eight-year career.

A lot has changed since Judon last saw the field, with Jerod Mayo the new coach and rookie Drake Maye the new franchise quarterback.

“I know it’s not going to be the same, and we’re not going to be be the same Patriots,” Judon said. “It’s going to look different. It’s going to feel different. But we’re not laying down for nobody. We’re not trying to rebuild. It’s not a post-apocalypse. We just got a new coach, and [Belichick] was there for a long time and he was a great coach. He was great for the organization. He did everything in his power to win championships. But now it’s Mayo time to do the exact same thing.”

THIS AND THAT

THE FIFTH-YEAR OPTION

You might think that 18 of 32 first rounders in the 2021 draft class either earning an extension or getting their fifth-year option picked up is a low number and reflects badly on the NFL scouting process.  But whether it does or not, Albert Breer points out that its better than 2020:

In the end, I’m counting 18 of 32 first-round picks from 2021 as having had their fifth-year options picked up. That’s counting guys who got extensions (DeVonta Smith, Penei Sewell) with the fifth-year option factored in (Rashod Bateman, who did a lower-end extension, doesn’t fit that description). And it’s a high number, for sure.

Last year, using the same logic (which counts Jordan Love as having had his picked up), just 13 of the 32 guys taken in the first round in 2020 qualified.

That number was by far the lowest since the rookie salary scale went into effect with the 2011 draft class. But there was a caveat to it—it was also the first year that the options were fully guaranteed upon being picked up, meaning teams couldn’t simply cut the guy a year later, so long as he was healthy.

What that tells you? The 2021 class, with players such as Trevor Lawrence, Micah Parsons and Ja’Marr Chase as headliners, was a very bumper crop of high-end players. And as such, Smith and Sewell will likely be just the first of a slew of these guys to sign blockbuster extensions before the start of their fourth seasons.

THE ROOKIE QBs

Austin Mock of The Athletic tries to predict which rookie QBs will come closest to being this year’s CJ STROUD.

The pressure starts mounting immediately. The moment a first-round quarterback is picked, the expectations foisted onto his shoulders — from those inside and outside the building — are immense.

We know it’s unfair, yet every year we go through the same exercise, wondering if these quarterbacks can lead their teams to salvation. This year’s crop of QBs is no different, except they’re all now following in the footsteps of C.J. Stroud, who just produced what many believe to be the best rookie quarterback season in NFL history.

Stroud ranked sixth in EPA/Dropback and first in TD/INT ratio among qualified quarterbacks according to TruMedia while leading the Houston Texans to an AFC South title and a wild-card round win. For comparison, Patrick Mahomes started one game during his rookie season, and Lamar Jackson started seven. Josh Allen started 11 games during his rookie campaign but managed to go just 5-6. That’s three of the league’s top QBs, and Stroud outperformed all of them by a good margin.

With six quarterbacks going in the top 12 of the 2024 NFL Draft, I wanted to dive into what you should expect from a quarterback in their rookie season because, as we all (should) know, Stroud is the exception, not the rule.

For this exercise, I examined all the QBs drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft — or who started at least five games during their debut season — since 2017. That gives us a sample of 42 quarterbacks or six quarterbacks per season. Is 2017 an arbitrary cut-off point? Sure. However, I think the sample size is large enough to provide a fair representation.

Conclusions

Winning … is hard

The average QB selected from this list averaged eight starts in their rookie campaigns and won three games. That comes out to 6.4 wins prorated over a full regular season. Only 25 percent of the quarterbacks who started over half of the season had better than a 50 percent winning percentage. Admittedly, there is some bias baked in because teams selecting QBs are typically picking high in the draft and don’t have great rosters.

Average or worse efficiency

Just looking at efficiency, the average EPA/Dropback among this group is -0.05 — or the equivalent of what Russell Wilson and Justin Fields produced in 2023 (good luck, Steelers!). If we examine only the first-round quarterbacks, the starts bump up to 10.5, and the average wins comes out to 4.0. Over a full season, first-round rookie QBs have won at a pace of 6.5 games. Efficiency improves, too, to right around 0 EPA/Dropback. That’s exactly the league average, which is comparable to what Gardner Minshew gave the Indianapolis Colts last season.

One and not done

All is not lost for QBs who struggle out of the gate. Sure, Bryce Young’s -0.21 EPA/Dropback is one of the worst among this group, but there is a good argument to be made he was dropped into a terrible environment in Carolina. Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff endured bad rookie seasons while suffering through similar issues, and both have turned out fine. When evaluating rookie QBs, landing spots are critical. It’s in the second and third seasons when you want to see a quarterback start to elevate the talent around him.

Of course, there is a flip side to the argument. We’ve seen QBs deliver promising rookie seasons only to flame out. The most recent example is Mac Jones. No, I don’t think Stroud’s rookie season is comparable to Jones’, but I do think meeting somewhere in the middle when it comes to rookie quarterback performance is best for a long-term outlook.

What to expect from the 2024 class

Team success

A few weeks ago, I used my NFL Projection Model to rank the NFL rosters, and using that same process, I can examine what each team that drafted a quarterback has in terms of skill-position talent and quality of offensive line.

The Chicago Bears’ Caleb Williams and Minnesota Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy will each be surrounded by top-10 supporting casts, while the Washington Commanders’ Jayden Daniels, New England Patriots’ Drake Maye and Denver Broncos’ Bo Nix will be surrounded by below-average talent and will have more work cut out for them.

You might have noticed I didn’t mention Michael Penix Jr.

The Atlanta Falcons have a top-five supporting cast, but if things go to plan, Penix won’t see the field this year. So, while he landed in an ideal spot, he’s more likely to follow the Jordan Love path of sitting a couple of seasons (or more?), before seeing game action. Whether that is a sound decision from an organizational point of view is a conversation for a different day.

According to BetMGM’s current odds, the Bears lead the way with a projected 8.5 wins. They are followed by the Vikings (6.5), Commanders (6.5), Broncos (5.5) and Patriots (4.5).

So, the supporting casts from my roster rankings tend to follow where the betting market is on these teams. However, the betting market doesn’t see any of these teams winning nine games, and my model agrees.

While not finalized just yet, a way-too-early look at my model reveals the two with the best chance — the Bears and Vikings — are the third- and fourth-best teams in the NFC North. It bears repeating, it’s an uphill battle to have success with a rookie quarterback.

Individual success

Among the 2024 rookies, I’d expect Williams — the most talented of the group — to have the greatest chance to succeed because he joins what might be the best roster a first overall pick has landed on in quite some time.

After that, it’s anyone’s guess. McCarthy is going to an offensive-minded coach, and a good supporting cast will make his life easier. Still, he was the fifth quarterback drafted for a reason. If Penix was slated to start, maybe I’d choose him (again solely based on the supporting cast), but we might not even see him after the preseason this year. After that, it’s probably Maye, Daniels and Nix.

However, as we’ve seen with some of the great quarterbacks in this league, rookie quarterback performance is not always the best predictor of future success. Mahomes, Allen and Jackson didn’t find the field or early success so no matter what happens in 2024, it’s probably best to temper the expectations (there probably won’t be a C.J. Stroud this year!) and see how they all perform in 2025 before making any firm conclusions.

2025 DRAFT

QB CARSON BECK has ascended, per Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders’ status as the betting favorite to be the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft didn’t last long.

Georgia quarterback Carson Beck is now the favorite to be the first pick next year at +300, with Sanders next at +450, via FanDuel.

Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers is third, with his odds to go first overall listed at +1400. Miami quarterback Cameron Ward is at +1700. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is listed at +1900.

The non-quarterbacks with the shortest odds to go No. 1 overall in 2025 are Sanders’ Colorado teammate Travis Hunter, who plays both cornerback and wide receiver, and Georgia defensive end Mykel Williams. Both Hunter and Williams are listed at +2200.