The Daily Briefing Tuesday, November 14, 2023
THE DAILY BRIEFING
| If the Season Ended Today in the AFC – the Bills and Bengals would not be in the playoffs:
W-L Conf 1 Kansas City West 7-2 5-1 2 Baltimore North 7-3 4-3 3 Jacksonville South 6-3 4-2 4 Miami East 6-3 4-2 5 Pittsburgh WC1 6-3 4-2 6 Cleveland WC2 6-3 4-2 7 Houston WC3 5-4 3-2 8 Cincinnati 5-4 1-4 9 Indianapolis 5-5 4-3 10 Buffalo 5-5 2-5 11 Las Vegas 5-5 3-3 12 LA Chargers 4-5 2-3 13 NY Jets 4-5 2-4 14 Denver 4-5 2-4 Look at that – Houston in the playoffs, all but two teams within a game of the playoff line, the Bills and Bengals with the worst conference records…crazy. Down below we have some ESPN computer formulations from Seth Walder who brushes over the fact that the computer has the 5-5 Raiders (3-3 in conference) at 1% to make the playoffs while the 3-6 Titans are at 4%. Do the Raiders have a tough schedule going forward? Well, they do with two meetings with the Chiefs among other things: 11 at Miami 12 Kansas City 13 bye 14 Minnesota 15 LA Chargers 16 at Kansas City 17 at Indianapolis 18 Denver But are there 4 wins there to get to 9-8? Minnesota, LAC, Indy and Denver? And the way the Raiders are playing they are not a cinch to go 0-3 against Miami and KC. Not saying they are going to make the playoffs – but we’d have them at about 8% with out gut. Something called PlayoffStatus.com has the Raiders at 17%. The Vegas line is about 6-1 or 7-1 which we think translates to upwards of 10%. We take a look at DENVER’s rising chances below with Week 18 Broncos at Raiders looking like a possible win-and-in game. |
| NFC NORTH |
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DETROIT Kyle Meinke of MLive.com on how one of Detroit’s biggest plays came after a gaffe. And more on RB DAVID MONTGOMERY: Jared Goff broke the huddle in a pass play. Then he started walking toward the line of scrimmage, and realized something was wrong.
The play required two tight ends.
They had just one on the field.
With offensive coordinator Ben Johnson screaming into his headset about the playcalling gaffe, Goff quickly checked into a run play at the line of scrimmage. And David Montgomery didn’t stop running on that play until he was in the end zone 75 yards down the field.
That’s right. A potentially huge mistake turned into the hugest touchdown run by a Lions player since 2011.
“I knew it was wrong when we broke the huddle,” Goff said after the 41-38 win on Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers. “I probably should have realized it when we were in the huddle, but once we broke the huddle and lined up, I realized it was wrong. Ben (was yelling) in my headset, ‘Hey! Hey! Hey! Get into the run!’
“We were laughing about it. You do all this planning through the week — Monday to Saturday — of what you want to do, and make everything perfect. Then we basically mess it up, and it’s a 75-yard touchdown. But that’s a credit to a good team. We’re a good team, and we adjust, and able to make adjustments on the fly like that.”
Of course, it also helps to have a running back like Montgomery to lean on for those adjustments, too.
Montgomery was a solid runner who broke a league-high number of tackles in Chicago the last four years, then signed a three-year contract with Detroit in free agency. And one look at Detroit’s offensive line — which is No. 1 in the league, according to Pro Football Focus — you can understand the excitement. One look at the standings might do that, too.
Sure enough, Montgomery has gone from good in Chicago to really good in Detroit. He won the starting job over 12th overall pick Jahmyr Gibbs in training camp, then was among the team’s best players in the first month of the season, including running for 100 yards in back-to-back games against Green Bay and Carolina, while scoring four touchdowns.
But he suffered a rib injury the following week in Tampa, and missed the last two games. In his place, the rookie Gibbs really started to find his way, accounting for a league-high 315 yards from scrimmage against Baltimore and Las Vegas.
Then Montgomery returned from his injury in Los Angeles, and joined Gibbs in leading the way for a rushing attack that racked up 200 yards for the second straight week, a club first since 1997. You know, Barry Sanders’ MVP season.
Montgomery’s 75-yard touchdown was the most explosive play of the day, and he finished with 116 yards on 12 carries overall. He now has three 100-yard games in six appearances with Detroit, matching a team record held by Sanders and Billy Sims. He’s scored seven touchdowns overall, also matching Sanders’ club record for a player’s first six games.
Of course, he gave a big shoutout to receiver Jameson Williams for blocking two guys out of the play, including racing downfield to take out the final defender.
“It wouldn’t have been anything without the O-line and the wide receivers,” Montgomery said. “Definitely, I want to highlight (Williams). That’s the second time this year I’ve been running and Jamo’s been there to lead the way. That takes a lot from him, too, for him to be who he is and be able to run and go block for me. I was running as fast as I was, and he was jogging and he still beat me. I’m a little hurt about that. But I’ll suppress those feelings for later.” |
| NFC SOUTH |
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ATLANTA The Falcons may not know, but in any case they are not saying who will start in two weeks when, post-bye, the Saints hit Atlanta for a huge NFC South tilt. Joe Patrick with the tweets that hint at QB DESMOND RIDDER: #Falcons Head Coach Arthur Smith said he’s not going to announce the team’s starting QB yet, but will make that call to start the week next week. Said both players need improvements in certain areas, but liked where Ridder was at after “a reset.”
Smith: “What you saw with Dez was very encouraging. What he went through is tough for anybody… But I always watch for players who want the ball when the game’s on the line, and that’s what I saw from Dez.” #Falcons
Specifically cites Ridder’s decision to pull the ball on the zone read and take it himself to the endzone, when, in Smith’s opinion, he could’ve handed it off and they’d have gotten the yards needed for a first down. |
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NEW ORLEANS QB JAMEIS WINSTON was called on to replace QB DEREK CARR late in Sunday’s game, helping both teams with two TD passes and two interceptions. It doesn’t look like he will be providing his brand of excitement when the Saints next take the field. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: The Saints saw three key players leave Sunday’s loss to the Vikings with injuries and head coach Dennis Allen offered updates on them during a Monday press conference.
PFT reported on Sunday that quarterback Derek Carr avoided a serious right shoulder injury and Allen confirmed that was the case on Monday. He said Carr’s shoulder “checked out fine,” but his return to action after the bye week will be dictated by his progress through the concussion protocol.
Wide receiver Michael Thomas left the game with a knee injury and cornerback Marshon Lattimore was knocked out by an ankle injury. Allen said that both players’ injuries are “fairly significant,” but neither one of them is expected to miss the rest of the season.
The Saints won’t be issuing any injury reports during the bye week, so the status of all three players for the Week 12 matchup with the Falcons will be updated next week. |
| NFC WEST |
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LOS ANGELES RAMS The Rams believe QB MATTHEW STAFFORD will be good to go on Sunday as Los Angeles goes for a season sweep of Seattle. The Los Angeles Rams don’t expect to be without Matthew Stafford for the second straight game on Sunday. Sean McVay shared some good news during his media session on Monday, saying the Rams expect Stafford to start against the Seattle Seahawks this weekend.
Stafford missed Week 9 with a thumb injury, which he suffered the week prior in the Rams’ loss to the Cowboys. McVay was optimistic he’d be able to return after the bye and he confirmed Stafford should be good to go against Seattle.
McVay did indicate that perhaps Stafford isn’t 100% healthy, saying “he’ll be pushing through.”
Additionally, McVay said he expects Ernest Jones and Rob Havenstein to return to the field this weekend after they also missed Week 9 due to injuries. The bye week clearly served the Rams well because they’ll be getting several players back from injury. |
| AFC WEST |
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DENVER The Broncos are right in the playoff mix after a horrific start. And Sean Payton with a new saying we haven’t heard before. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: The first six weeks of Sean Payton’s tenure as the Broncos head coach provided little reason to think that his arrival would lead to a major change of fortunes in Denver.
Five losses in six games, including a 70-20 loss to the Dolphins, seemed to signal that it would be another long year in Denver, but the last three games have sent a different message. After outlasting the Packers in Week Seven, the Broncos beat the Chiefs for the first time since 2015 and then they showed more signs of growth in Buffalo on Monday night.
The same defense that got strafed by Miami forced four turnovers and Wil Lutz made the most of a second chance to kick a game-winning field goal to lift the team to a 24-22 win. Payton’s record in Denver is now 4-5 and he said after the game that it was a reminder of how quickly a team can go from streaking in one direction to another.
“It’s the NFL. I mean, credit these guys,’’ Payton said, via Mike Klis of KUSA. “There’s a little toughness to this league. I keep saying it — there’s that fine line between a groove and a rut. You have to bow up a little bit and you have to demand it of each other at practice during the week. You win during the week. I felt like we’ve been practicing during the week better — a lot better. If you do that and you demand that of each other, then Sundays become a little bit less chaotic.”
The Broncos will be at home the next two weeks and continuing this groove a little longer would put them into the fight for playoff spots in the AFC. That seemed hard to imagine a month ago, but the tide has definitely turned in Denver. We would think that Payton will out-coach Brandon Staley the rest of the way – and there are two games with the Chargers left. Antonio Pierce of the Raiders is a promising, but unknown quantity. Who do the Broncos have left? 11 Minnesota 12 Cleveland 13 at Houston 14 at LA Chargers 15 at Detroit 16 New England 17 LA Chargers 18 at Las Vegas One road game against a really good team in Detroit, one home game against a bad team in New England. The five games against similar teams. Coach your way to 4-1 in those games and all of a sudden the Broncos are 10-7 (with a win over Buffalo). The team that gave up 70 in one game to Miami – has given up 67 total in the last four weeks. |
| AFC SOUTH |
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HOUSTON It is apparent by now that QB C.J. STROUD gets it. Further evidence from Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has had a great rookie year, and the Texans are now knocking off elite teams.
How’s he doing it? He has the ability, the energy, the swagger. He also has the preparation.
After Sunday’s win over the Bengals in Cincinnati, Texans rookie receiver Tank Dell told PFT that Stroud has been sending late-night texts to teammates with plays run by the upcoming opponent’s defense.
“He just puts that that extra time and his preparation is amazing,” Dell said by phone. “He’d just sent us videos all throughout the night. It’s like eleven at night, almost midnight, and he’s still sending us clips of how their defense is playing and telling us how we should adjust and things like that. I’d say it’s preparation, but then his swagger, he have that confidence about himself that he can be one of the best in the league. So, I’d say all that mixed in with each other.”
Dell said the effort, which happens every week, motivates him and other teammates to work even harder themselves.
“He makes everybody prepare well and you have to when you have a quarterback preparing well, and he has the biggest responsibility,” Dell said. “You’re going to want to go out there and prepare well each and every week, for sure.”
The Texans might now be preparing to make a run at the top of the AFC South. They’ve already beaten the Jaguars by 20 points in Jacksonville. The rematch happens in Houston in 13 days, and a win would put the Texans in first place in the division — if they beat the Cardinals on Sunday. |
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JACKSONVILLE Legal issues for WR ZAY JONES. ESPN.com: – Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Zay Jones was arrested on a misdemeanor domestic battery charge Monday, according to jail records.
Jones was arrested by the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office and booked into the Duval County Jail at 6:03 p.m. ET on a charge of domestic battery causing bodily harm, a first-degree misdemeanor. His first court appearance is scheduled for 9 a.m. Tuesday.
The Jaguars issued a statement Monday evening that said: “We are aware of the situation and are in the midst of gathering information. We will have no further comment at this time.”
Jones has missed six games — including the past four — this season because of a right knee injury. He has five catches for 55 yards and two touchdowns in three games. |
| AFC EAST |
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MIAMI The door is cracked for RB DE’VON ACHANE to be back in action soon. Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com: Dolphins running back De’Von Achane returned to practice Monday as his 21-day activation window to return from injured reserve officially opened.
Achane rushed for 460 yards and scored seven total touchdowns in four games, establishing himself as one of the league’s standout rookies. Despite rushing for 151 yards and a touchdown against the New York Giants in Week 5, the third-round pick injured his knee and was placed on IR the following week.
Miami’s production has dropped off slightly without Achane. Its offense failed to break 100 rushing yards in two of the four games he’s missed.
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said Achane’s injury wasn’t necessarily incapacitating, but the Dolphins decided to play it safe with their star rookie.
“There wasn’t tearing, it was more of a strain-type injury,” McDaniel said Monday. “The thing that you do, if you really minimize the time off the field in these situations with players, is you throw a brace on the player and have them go. I just didn’t really envision him being one that would really flourish with a brace.
“So, we took the time to make sure we could get structurally completely strong. We probably erred on the side of caution with that, but everything seems ready to go for today’s practice.”
Veteran Raheem Mostert has shouldered the majority of the workload in Achane’s absence, rushing for 291 yards and five total touchdowns in the Dolphins’ past four games. He is currently tied with Christian McCaffrey for the NFL lead in total touchdowns with 13 — which also represents a career high.
In other injury news, Dolphins offensive linemen Rob Hunt and Robert Jones are considered week-to-week with hamstring and knee injuries, respectively. Hunt missed the team’s loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9 and Jones was carted back to the locker room during that game.
Miami hosts the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. |
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THIS AND THAT |
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PLAYOFF TIERS 32 teams, 8 playoff tiers from Seth Walder of ESPN.com: Teams are organized within each tier based on their chances to make the playoffs, which were updated after Sunday’s games. Stats are updated through Thursday night’s game, unless otherwise noted.
Tier 1: The true Super Bowl contenders
Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) Chances to make the playoffs: 99% Chances to win the NFC East: 83%
The offense is humming and has shown its might through the air and on the ground at various points, and that has the Eagles not only thinking about making the playoffs but securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Their upcoming stretch — at Chiefs, vs. Bills, vs. 49ers and at Cowboys — will determine whether that becomes a reality.
Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) Chances to make the playoffs: 99% Chances to win the AFC West: 95%
There’s a good side and a bad side to the Chiefs’ No. 6 ranking in expected points added (EPA) per play despite having the best quarterback in the NFL. On the good side, it means the offense is still productive, but it also highlights how much Patrick Mahomes’ pass-catchers have let him down. The Chiefs’ defense (which is sixth in EPA per play entering Week 10) still gives this team scary potential.
San Francisco 49ers (6-3) Chances to make the playoffs: 98% Chances to win the NFC West: 89%
The 49ers’ three-game losing streak wasn’t pretty, but make no mistake: They are not only shoo-ins for a playoff spot but a real threat to win the Super Bowl. With their stacked skill-position players and Kyle Shanahan’s scheme to support quarterback Brock Purdy, no team is more efficient through the air than the 49ers, who ranked first in EPA per dropback entering Week 10.
Purdy, for his part, is second in QBR. Oh, and the 49ers just added defensive end Chase Young to a pass rush that already ranked seventh in pass rush win rate.
Tier 2: Playoff locks
Dallas Cowboys (6-3) Chances to make the playoffs: 97% Chances to win the NFC East: 17%
We’ve seen the Cowboys’ upside in a string of blowout wins against the Giants, Jets, Patriots and Rams. We’ve seen the downside in their 42-10 loss to the 49ers in Week 5. Balance out the performances and they are a very good team with potential for greatness.
Entering Week 10, linebacker Micah Parsons had a 34% pass rush win rate — on pace for the highest ever — while CeeDee Lamb ranked second in our receiver tracking metrics overall score and Dak Prescott ranked fourth in QBR. If Dallas can put it all together, it is a legit threat to go all the way.
Detroit Lions (7-2) Chances to make the playoffs: 97% Chances to win the NFC North: 78%
With Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins’ injury (torn Achilles), the Packers’ Jordan Love experiment failing and the Bears floundering, the stage had been set for the Lions to win the NFC North even if they weren’t as good as they are this season.
Entering Week 10, the Lions ranked sixth in total efficiency (EPA/play across all three units, adjusted for garbage time). In addition, OT Penei Sewell has been exceptional in pass protection, ranking fifth among tackles in pass block win rate.
Miami Dolphins (6-3) Chances to make the playoffs: 94% Chances to win the AFC East: 74%
Despite losing to the top three teams it has faced (the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs), Miami ranked first in EPA per play on offense entering the weekend. When the Dolphins have a man in motion at the snap — as they do more often than not — they’re even better.
How the defense performs down the stretch could be the determining factor in whether they win the AFC East and make a playoff run. Their D has been mediocre thus far, but it’s a unit with the talent to be a top-10 group, especially with All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey now healthy.
Baltimore Ravens (7-3) Chances to make the playoffs: 89% Chances to win the AFC North: 49%
No team has made a bigger leap toward being a true Super Bowl contender than the Ravens because of their progress on both sides of the ball. The offense has started clicking under new coordinator Todd Monken, ranking fifth in EPA per play and first in Weeks 6 through 9. Defensively, they rank second in EPA per play and in defensive open score, meaning their secondary tightly covers opposing wide receivers and tight ends.
Tier 3: Likely in, barring a collapse
Minnesota Vikings (6-4) Chances to make the playoffs: 86% Chances to win the NFC North: 22%
Does quarterback Joshua Dobbs have even more magic in him? At first, it seemed Minnesota’s playoff hopes were dashed with Kirk Cousins’ season-ending Achilles injury. But after Dobbs led the team to upsets over the Falcons and Saints — two of the Vikings’ competitors for a wild-card spot — Minnesota’s season didn’t seem quite so over after all.
Brian Flores’ blitz-happy defense has been solid and a surprising bonus for the Vikings, who can more than hold their own against the rest of the candidates for the NFC’s No. 7 spot even without their starting quarterback.
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3) Chances to make the playoffs: 79% Chances to win the AFC South: 63%
The Jaguars are in an excellent position to make the playoffs, just not for the reason we thought entering the season. It has been their defense, which ranked fourth in EPA per play entering Week 10, leading the way (though a blowout loss to San Francisco doesn’t help).
Jacksonville’s weaknesses are on the other side of the ball, as the play of its offensive line and its pass-catchers’ ability to limit drops will ultimately determine whether the team can evolve into something beyond being the likely AFC South champion.
Cleveland Browns (6-3) Chances to make the playoffs: 78% Chances to win the AFC North: 29%
Defensive end Myles Garrett and cornerback Denzel Ward lead one of the NFL’s best defenses, a unit that has kept its team firmly in the tight AFC playoff race. That has happened despite fairly disastrous quarterback play without Deshaun Watson and lackluster quarterback play with him. Cleveland’s chances will hinge on Watson’s availability and performance in the second half.
Seattle Seahawks (6-3) Chances to make the playoffs: 72% Chances to win the NFC West: 10%
Geno Smith ranked just 16th in QBR entering Week 10, but the Seahawks are in a pretty good position thanks to solid play on both sides of the ball, an easier-than-average schedule and a weak NFC that allows for a fairly straightforward path to a wild-card berth
Seattle has had a better-than-expected pass rush (ninth-best win rate) because of solid seasons from players such as linebacker Boye Mafe and defensive tackle Jarran Reed.
Tier 4: We’re leaning yes
New Orleans Saints (5-5) Chances to make the playoffs: 61% Chances to win the NFC South: 53%
It’s better to be lucky than good. The Saints were the 14th-best team entering Week 10, according to FPI, but they play in the NFL’s worst division. They also have played against the second-easiest schedule and will face the second-easiest going forward.
With all that working for them, their defense — which ranked sixth best in EPA per play against both the run and pass — should be enough to power them to the postseason.
Buffalo Bills (5-4) Chances to make the playoffs: 56% Chances to win the AFC East: 25%
Wait, the Bills are all the way down here? I was surprised, too, but they have put themselves in danger. If they finish with 10 wins, they will have only a 65% chance to reach the playoffs, according to FPI simulations prior to Week 10. Getting to 11 wins is no lock, considering they still have to play the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins.
That said, if the Bills make the playoffs they are a serious Super Bowl contender. After all, they ranked second in offensive EPA per play entering Week 10, which is why I think they will ultimately reach the postseason.
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) Chances to make the playoffs: 34% Chances to win the AFC North: 6%
FPI seems to be a little off on Cincinnati, as the Bengals we saw in the first few weeks of the season are not who they are now. Quarterback Joe Burrow looks mostly recovered from his preseason right calf injury, which has improved an offense that ranked fourth in EPA per play in Weeks 5-9. The defense has gotten better, too.
If the Bengals can maintain this level of play, they should be able to overcome their 1-3 start.
Tier 5: On the fringes of hope and despair
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) Chances to make the playoffs: 53% Chances to win the AFC North: 16%
The Steelers deserve credit for what they’ve done so far, which has put them firmly in the playoff chase. But I have a hard time buying this team going forward. They seem to have needed a huge defensive play in most of their wins, and Kenny Pickett ranked 27th in QBR entering Week 10.
Plus, they are in the NFL’s toughest division and have four games left against their AFC North rivals.
Houston Texans (5-4) Chances to make the playoffs: 53% Chances to win the AFC South: 29%
The Texans are a long shot, but it’s not that hard to imagine, is it? Because with what C.J. Stroud has shown — he ranked 12th in QBR entering Week 10 after his 470-yard passing performance against the Buccaneers — the best-case scenario seems possible. It’s not just Stroud, either, as Houston’s other young talent has stepped up. Defensive end Will Anderson Jr. has been a disruptive pass-rusher, and receivers Tank Dell and Nico Collins are elevating the passing game.
Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) Chances to make the playoffs: 35% Chances to win the AFC West: 5%
It’s jarring to see the Chargers all the way down in this tier despite having Justin Herbert at quarterback, but here they are. The defense is a liability — it ranked 26th in EPA per play heading into Sunday’s games. L.A. is way behind Kansas City in the AFC West and might be forced to play for a wild-card berth.
Add the potential wild-card teams ahead of the Chargers on this list (two of Ravens, Bengals and Browns and one of Bills and Dolphins) and you can see the problem — they need another team to slip up.
Atlanta Falcons (4-6) Chances to make the playoffs: 25% Chances to win the NFC South: 22%
The offense hasn’t been cutting it. Desmond Ridder ranked 25th in QBR before coach Arthur Smith finally switched to Taylor Heinicke. There’s little reason to believe Heinicke is a better option — he would have ranked 25th in QBR last season had he qualified.
There is one major factor working in the Falcons’ favor: the schedule. Not only have they played the league’s easiest schedule entering Week 10, per FPI, but they have the easiest one remaining. That might be enough to nab the 7-seed in the NFC.
Tier 6: Stranger things have happened
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) Chances to make the playoffs: 35% Chances to win the NFC South: 26%
The Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers offense has been surprisingly mediocre — and I mean that as a compliment, because I certainly didn’t envision it entering the season. That could be enough to sneak into the playoffs past the other NFC South misfits, but the Buccaneers are going to need luck on their side.
New York Jets (4-5) Chances to make the playoffs: 3% Chances to win the AFC East: 1%
In this very same space a year ago, I wrote: “Quarterback Zach Wilson remains a problem, but everything else looks like a solution.”
Twelve months and one Aaron Rodgers Achilles injury later, Wilson is still a problem — as is the Jets’ stubborn decision to not explore alternatives — but so is the offensive line and the lack of a No. 2 receiver. That being said, the defense is fantastic, so I can’t rule out a playoff run despite the Jets playing in the tough AFC East. (Oh, and Rodgers could still return too.)
Tier 7: Yes, I’m telling you there’s a (slight) chance
Indianapolis Colts (5-5) Chances to make the playoffs: 24% Chances to win the AFC South: 6%
Here’s something that really surprised me: Gardner Minshew ranked eighth in QBR entering Week 10. Obviously, he has had a smaller sample than most starting quarterbacks, but still. Indianapolis ranked 21st in FPI entering Week 10, so it would need quite a few breaks to go its way to sneak back into the playoff conversation.
Los Angeles Rams (3-6) Chances to make the playoffs: 14% Chances to win the NFC West: 1%
The Rams have a tough road no matter what, but their probability of reaching the postseason hinges on the health of quarterback Matthew Stafford (thumb). Having him, along with receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, provides a chance for their offense to catch fire again. Without Stafford, it’s on to 2024.
Green Bay Packers (3-6) Chances to make the playoffs: 9%
I can’t envision a scenario in which the Packers reach the playoffs, but it is possible. Quarterback Jordan Love’s accuracy issues (and drops by receivers, to be fair) have plagued Green Bay’s season. The defense has also underperformed its talent level.
As with many other teams, the one thing Green Bay has going for it is playing in the weaker NFC.
Washington Commanders (4-6) Chances to make the playoffs: 3%
Sam Howell is a high-variance quarterback. The thing about variance? Sometimes it goes your way. That’s what Washington will need.
Howell has started to get his sack problem in check recently — he has been taken down just seven times in his past three games. If that’s a sign of the future, that should give the Commanders a glimmer of hope. Still, there’s a reason they were movers at the trade deadline.
Denver Broncos (3-5) Chances to make the playoffs: 2%
Weird things happen in football, but it’s still difficult to shake Denver’s stunning 24-9 upset of the Chiefs in Week 8. Was it a sign of the team figuring it out under coach Sean Payton? It had the least-efficient defense in the league entering Week 10, but one has to figure it will be better going forward based on the talent level.
Do I think a miracle happens here? No. But will I 100% rule it out? Also no.
Tier 8: Rest up for 2024
Tennessee Titans (3-6) Chances to make the playoffs: 4%
Newly minted QB1 Will Levis is still largely unknown but that gives Tennessee a sliver of upside, as does playing in the fairly weak AFC South. Still, I had a hard time buying the Titans as a playoff contender before the season. It’s even harder now given their record and rookie quarterback.
Chicago Bears (3-7) Chances to make the playoffs: 2%
Even if quarterback Justin Fields (thumb) is healthy the rest of the way and deadline acquisition Montez Sweat improves the pass rush, I don’t see how this lackluster team can climb out of the hole it finds itself in. Bears fans seeking happiness should focus on their two (early) first-round picks next year.
Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) Chances to make the playoffs: 1%
Interim coach Antonio Pierce seemed to bring some juice to the Raiders in his first game, earning a lopsided win over the Giants. But taking over this team would be a tall task for any coach. Las Vegas is very much a work in progress, even with All-Pro receiver Davante Adams still on the roster.
Arizona Cardinals (2-8) Chances to make the playoffs: Less than 1%
I tend to believe quarterback Kyler Murray is underrated, but even he has no shot to bring the Cardinals back from their current spot in the standings. The real question is whether they can win enough games to knock themselves out of the Caleb Williams/Drake Maye sweepstakes in the draft.
New England Patriots (2-8) Chances to make the playoffs: Less than 1%
In EPA per play, the Patriots ranked 29th on offense and 24th on defense entering Week 10. Mac Jones was 24th in QBR. Their best wide receiver (Kendrick Bourne) is out for the year with a torn ACL. Nothing is going right in New England.
New York Giants (2-8) Chances to make the playoffs: Less than 1%
This team’s chances were slim to none with Daniel Jones at quarterback. Now that Jones is out for the season (torn ACL), the Giants’ playoff chances have moved firmly to zero. Suddenly, this is a team that could be looking for a quarterback at the top of the 2024 draft.
Carolina Panthers (1-8) Chances to make the playoffs: Less than 1%
Quarterback Bryce Young could ultimately have a successful NFL career. But we haven’t seen that type of performance yet, as he ranked last among 32 qualifying quarterbacks in QBR entering Week 10. Until his play improves — and he gets more help around him on offense — the Panthers won’t be winners. We know that AFC playoff line is higher at the moment than the NFC’s, and likely to stay that way, but why do the Vegas Silver Raiders, with their 5-5 record and new momentum following the departure of Josh McDaniels, only have a 1% chance far below teams like Denver, Chicago and Green Bay? |
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BROADCAST NEWS – FLEXING CAN BE HARD Even as the NFL has more opportunity to flex games, there have been few actual flexes this year with some shaky games continuing to show up in primetime. For example, the Patriots have three Primetime games coming up – and only one seems to be a candidate for flexing. Michael Hurley of WBZ.com: The New England Patriots played in front of an international audience on Sunday. They scored six points. The team did not put forth an incredibly entertaining product, and with a 2-8 record and questions about who the starting quarterback might be going forward, it’s unlikely to get better.
As such, there’s been plenty of wondering in the football world if some of those prime-time games in December might get flexed out of the national windows in order to draw more viewers to the television. But for at least one of them, there won’t be a change.
ESPN’s Mike Reiss confirmed Monday that the Week 14 Thursday Night Football game featuring the Patriots at the Pittsburgh Steelers will not be moved out of the slot.
This year marks the first year that the NFL can flex games out of Thursday slots, though the decision must be made four weeks in advance in order to allow everyone as much time as possible to adapt to the game moving to Sunday. With the Patriots and Steelers scheduled to play Dec. 7, Reiss astutely noted that less than 28 days remain until that game kicks off.
Like the Patriots, the 6-3 Steelers have one of the worst offenses in the league, but Amazon and the NFL decided there’s enough appeal in the two franchises to draw in a solid audience. Other games that could have been appealing to swap in for Pats-Steelers were few and far between, though the Chargers at Ravens and Seahawks at 49ers at least presented some intriguing options. Last year, the Patriots outlasted the Steelers 17-14 in a game that wasn’t heavy on scoring but featured eight combined punts and four field-goal attempts.
That game kicks off a three-week stretch where the Patriots play in prime time.
In Week 15, they’ll travel to Denver to face the Broncos on Christmas Eve. With that game set to air on NFL Network, it’s not eligible to be flexed out like a normal Sunday Night Football game on NBC would be.
And in Week 16, they’ll host the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. That game is still eligible to be flexed, and the NFL must make a decision 12 days prior to Dec. 18. But with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and … Taylor Swift in the mix, it’s unlikely that ESPN would opt to take the Chiefs out of a prime-time window, no matter who the opponent may be.
The other three scheduled Patriots games — at the Giants in Week 12, home vs. the Chargers in Week 13, at Buffalo in Week 17 — are all scheduled for Sunday 1 p.m. kickoffs. The Patriots’ Week 18 home date with the Jets remains TBD, though with both teams under .500, it looks to be a safe bet to be a Sunday 1 p.m. start as well. The Amazon window is past, but let’s look at the other network games in Week 14. Sunday night, Eagles at Cowboys is solid. Monday has two games on MonDAY (?!?!?) – but one game is bad (Green Bay at Giants), the other not-so-good (Tennessee at Miami). Putting aside the question of flexing a game in a two-game week, what might the options be? Hurley writes that Seattle at 49ers was an intriguing option. But it wasn’t. Seattle at San Francisco would be FOX’s protected game for Week 14– except San Francisco at Seattle is an NBC game on Thanksgiving night. And the Sunday networks are also guaranteed at least one of the two division rival games. So SF at Seattle is off the table. Here is the FOX schedule for Week 14 – Detroit Lions Chicago Bears 1:00 PM Los Angeles Rams Baltimore Ravens 1:00 PM Carolina Panthers New Orleans Saints 1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings Las Vegas Raiders 4:05 PM Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers 4:05 PM FOX will be able to take one of the other four games off the table – maybe Rams at Ravens, maybe Vikings at Raiders. And that Rams-Ravens game is actually the game Hurley thought was Chargers at Ravens. He had the wrong team from Los Angeles. As far as CBS goes in Week 14: Tampa Bay @ Atlanta Indianapolis @ Cincinnati Jacksonville @ Cleveland Houston @ New York Jets Buffalo @ Kansas City Denver @ LA Chargers Buffalo at Kansas City has to be the protected game. So the options for ESPN to flex would be the FOX loser of Rams-Baltimore or Vikings-Raiders, or one of the other CBS games – we think Jacksonville at Cleveland is the best but you actually could make a case for any of the other five being better in a 2023 playoff sense than Packers-Giants (except they are branded teams). Stand by. |