AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
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If The Season Ended Today in the NFC, the four division leaders all have at least a two-game advantage with 7 or 8 to play – so we can look forward to playoff games in Glendale, Lambeau, Raymond James and Jerry World.
As to the Wild Card teams, the NFC South teams are collectively fading while the Vikings (now in the playoffs), 49ers and Eagles are surging. With New Orleans fading, they could be playing for two spots. And if the Rams play like they have in their last two games even they could not be secure.
W-L Div Conf
Arizona West 9-2 1 5-2
Green Bay North 8-3 1 6-2
Tampa Bay South 7-3 1 5-3
Dallas East 7-3 1 5-1
LA Rams WC1 7-3 2 5-2
Minnesota WC2 5-5 2 4-2
New Orleans WC3 5-5 2 4-4
San Francisco 5-5 3 4-4
Philadelphia 5-6 2 4-3
Carolina 5-6 3 3-5
Washington 4-6 3 4-2
Atlanta 4-6 4 2-5
This from Adam Schefter (confirmed by DB source):
@AdamSchefter
Being that the NFL hasn’t yet announced that next Sunday night’s SF at Seattle game will be staying at that time – which it would have had to do by Monday – it now is likely to be flexed out today, with either Denver at Kansas City, or the Chargers at Cincinnati taking its place.
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NFC NORTH
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CHICAGO
Disgusted Bulls fans filled the arena with a hurtful personal chant on Monday, but it had nothing to do with a NASCAR driver. Easy to hear “fire Nagy”
“Chief” at BarstoolSports.com collects the rumors:
@Schultz_Report
An overwhelming number of #Bears’ players want Matt Nagy gone, league sources say. “He lost some of the locker room last season, but now it’s gone,” one source adds. One key holdup: No HC in the 101-year franchise history has ever been let go during the season.
@Schultz_Report
Replying to
@Schultz_Report
Hard to imagine a scenario where GM Ryan Pace survives as well. Pace has been given full reign and made the lion’s share of mistakes, inc hiring Nagy. The #Bears, under his guidance, have the NFL’s eighth-worst record (45-61) during his seven seasons.
File this one under “no shit”. I think if you asked players privately after last season they’d say the same thing. The guy simply can’t get it done. There’s enough of a sample size now. The more time you give Nagy to think the worse he gets.
We have all had enough, the players included. The team should just give the reins to the Special Teams coach that did fine the week Nagy was out with Covid. The Bears haven’t fired a coach mid season…ever. Maybe the Bears should start doing the Costanza method for running the organization. Whatever they’ve done historically is out. Whatever their instincts tell them to do they should do the opposite. If your instincts say it’s the right or classy thing to do to let Nagy finish out the season then the opposite would be to fire him on Thanksgiving. That is cold blooded, but it is a step in the right direction. We’ve run the experiment and Nagy stinks. The players aren’t stupid. They’re smarter than us. They’ve played for better coaches in the NFL or in college. They know what good coaching looks like and it is a MIRACLE that this type of leak hasn’t happened until now. Let’s all move on. Let’s allow the Bears to get a head start on the search for the next head coach. Do the opposite of what they’ve been doing and do it before Nagy can spend anymore time with our Beautiful Boy Justin Fields.
And when the Bulls fans chanted, the Bears listened if Mark Konkol of Patch.com:
For disgruntled Bears fans looking for something to be thankful for after five straight losses, this is it.
Matt Nagy will coach his last game for the Bears on Thanksgiving in Detroit, a top source with knowledge of the decision told Patch.
Nagy was informed of his pending post-Turkey Day termination on Monday, the source said.
Nagy, hired in 2018, would be the first Bears coach to be fired mid-season in franchise history.
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GREEN BAY
The Packers are staying the course with struggling PK MASON CROSBY. Zach Kruse of USA TODAY:
Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur made it clear Monday: His team won’t be moving on from veteran kicker Mason Crosby, who missed another field goal on Sunday in Minnesota.
Asked if the Packers would be making a change at kicker, LaFleur didn’t flinch.
“No, I would say absolutely not,” LaFleur said Monday.
Crosby clanked a 32-yard field goal attempt off the upright in the first quarter on Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Packers ended up losing by three.
Crosby, 37, has now missed an NFL-high eight field goals this season, including a league-high four kicks between 30-39 yards. He’s missed five field goal attempts in just the last five games.
“Certainly have a lot of confidence in Mason,” LaFleur said.
Crosby made a 54-yard field goal earlier in the game Sunday, a fact LaFleur pointed to when discussing his continued confidence in the veteran kicker.
And once again, LaFleur pointed to the execution of the entire operation as the downfall.
“That never falls squarely on one individual. Our operation has got to improve, that’s from the snap to the hold to the kick,” LaFleur said. “We’ll continue to work on that.”
Crosby is a highly respected member of the Packers locker room, and he has a history of bouncing back from poor stretches of kicking. The Packers are banking on Crosby to rebound and start making kicks consistently, especially as the playoffs approach and kicking becomes even more important.
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
Owner Jerry Jones comes down squarely on the side of vaccination for all players. Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:
When receiver Amari Cooper tested positive for COVID-19 late last week, it automatically took him out for Dallas’ Week 11 contest against Kansas City and Week 12 matchup with Las Vegas on Thanksgiving because he’s unvaccinated.
While quarterback Dak Prescott voiced his support for Cooper last week, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones noted in an interview on 105.3 The Fan the clear differences of being vaccinated vs. being unvaccinated in this situation.
“First of all, he wouldn’t have been testing had he been vaccinated,” Jones said, via Mark Lane of WFAA. “So, he didn’t have symptoms. So, he wouldn’t have been tested. So, there’s a very likelihood like he is he might have played had he been vaccinated, number one. Number two, after you are tested and you are vaccinated, you can come back quicker. It’s an automatic 10 days if you haven’t been vaccinated. It’s not automatic if you have not been vaccinated and you get to test and testing negative is important, but you have to have a couple tests negative.
“It is very punitive to get the COVID, to be trite, it’s very punitive to get the COVID if you’re not vaccinated in the NFL. It’s very punitive. We have a high alert for unvaccinated players in the NFL, a high alert. And, in fact, it is punitive as we see if in fact you’re not vaccinated and get the COVID as opposed to being vaccinated and getting the COVID. Period. And we’re going through kind of a classic case of how it would have been different vaccinated.”
Asked if he’s disappointed in Cooper, Jones didn’t give a direct yes or no answer, but instead pointed to the team aspect of the sport.
“I’m just, again, I said it early. You check ‘me’ at the door in a football team,” Jones said. “That has nothing to do with the issues of masking, not masking, getting vaccinated, not getting vaccinated. And if I have a ton, I shouldn’t. It just has nothing to do with it. The facts are it is a ‘we’ thing when you walk into the locker room, and anybody is being counted on to pull his weight. Everybody expects that. They look around at each other. They understand everybody’s rights. They do. We do. Everybody understands our rights and our options as it pertains to those rights. But can you — if you forget it’s a ‘we’ thing and how important your part is.
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NEW YORK GIANTS
The marriage between Coach Joe Judge and OC Jason Garrett hangs by a thread after a disastrous effort by QB DANIEL JONES on Monday. Pat Leonard of the New York Daily News:
A seething Giants coach Joe Judge implied Jason Garrett’s job could be in jeopardy after Monday night’s putrid 30-10 road loss to the Buccaneers.
The second-year head coach went on a rant about not scoring enough points, not putting players in a position to succeed, and Judge’s empathizing with player frustrations.
When he was asked if he still has faith in Garrett as his offensive coordinator, Judge made clear changes could be coming.
“I have faith in all the people on our team: players, coaches, everyone,” he said. “But look, we’ll assess everything as a team and make any move we need to going forward.”
Asked if Garrett will remain the OC, Judge snapped: “I’m not gonna go into it right now.”
This was a dramatically different response than Judge’s two previous commentaries on Garrett’s status this season.
With an 0-3 record in late September, Judge said: “the coordinators will still be making the play-calling this week.” With a 3-6 record entering the bye, Judge said “no” to making changes while the Giants were idle.
“No, not at this moment we’re not,” he said on Nov. 8.
But Monday’s pathetic 215-yard, 10-point performance may have sent Judge over the edge. It certainly sounded like it.
“I’m gonna watch the tape, I’m gonna evaluate everything: every player, every coach, make all the decisions that are best for the team going forward,” he said. “Simply put on that: everything is accounted for, everything is evaluated. Every player, every coach. Everything’s evaluated.”
[More Giants] Pathetic Giants slouch through blowout loss to Tom Brady’s Buccaneers »
Judge invited several follow-up inquiries into Garrett’s status by going off on his offense’s inability to get the ball to their top weapons in optimal spots.
“We’ve got to do a better job of scoring points,” Judge said. “We’ve got to do a better job of putting our players in position to make plays. We have too many good players. We have to put them in a better position to capitalize on it. That’s it.
“We gotta make sure we sit down [Tuesday] as a coaching staff and understand how we have to play this game and give our players a chance to make plays,” the head coach continued. “So in reference to any kind of [bad player] body language at the end of the game, I’ll handle the corrections. But if I was a player, there’d be some things I’d be frustrated with, too.”
When Judge was told that his criticism of Garrett on Monday stuck out, he said: “Let’s not read too far into this right now. I respect and understand the question, but I’m gonna stay off that right now.”
But in the next breath he was lamenting Kenny Golladay’s two targets.
[More Giants] Giants left tackle Andrew Thomas catches touchdown, had celebration ready »
“He had more than one but it wasn’t enough. Gotta make sure we correct that,” Judge said.
And Judge cited the second half play-calling as an example of what needs to change, when Buccaneers pass rushers were teeing off on the Giants’ offensive line during predictable drop-back passing.
“At the end of the game we were behind, they knew we were gonna throw, we’ve got to change it up down there,” Judge said. “We’ve got to call the game to give our players a better chance for success.”
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NFC SOUTH
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NEW ORLEANS
The Saints will be without TE ADAM TRAUTMAN on Thanksgiving and beyond. Luke Johnson of the New Orleans Times-Picayune:
The hits keep on coming for the New Orleans Saints.
After he put together his best game of the season against Philadelphia, second-year tight end Adam Trautman will miss the next 4-6 weeks with a sprained MCL, according to an ESPN report.
Trautman either matched or set career highs in both receptions (5) and receiving yards (58) while also grabbing his first touchdown of the season before leaving Sunday’s game against Philadelphia.
The injury occurred when Trautman made a leaping reception of a Trevor Siemian pass down the sideline for a 17-yard gain. Trautman landed hard on the play and needed to walk off the field with the assistance of the Saints medical staff.
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More money for QB/Swiss Army Knife TAYSOM HILL. Luke Johnson again:
The New Orleans Saints and multi-purpose offensive player Taysom Hill have reached an agreement on a four-year contract extension that could pay Hill up to $95 million, a league source confirmed to the Times-Picayune.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter was the first to report the terms of the extension, which will pay Hill at least $40 million the next four seasons — including $22.5 million guaranteed — but could go as high as $95 million if Hill earns the Saints starting quarterback job.
Hill signed a two-year, $21 million extension prior to the 2020 season. In March, the Saints added three void years to his existing contract to create some immediate salary cap relief.
His contract was set to void after this season, and if that happened the Saints would have incurred an $8.9 million dead cap charge. By extending him, New Orleans can now spread that charge out over the length of the deal.
The Saints now have two quarterbacks under contract for the 2022 season and beyond in Hill and rookie Ian Book. The two quarterbacks who have started the Saints 10 games to this point, Jameis Winston and Trevor Siemian, are set to become free agents in 2022.
Saints snap counts: Analyzing usage of offensive line, defense and more in loss to Eagles
Now in his fifth season with the Saints, Hill has started four games at quarterback — all coming in relief of an injured Drew Brees in 2020. New Orleans went 3-1 in those games while Hill accounted for eight total touchdowns.
For the majority of his time in New Orleans, Hill has served as the most versatile piece in coach Sean Payton’s offensive game plans, playing virtually every offensive position except on the offensive line while also taking on a substantial special teams role.
In 60 career games, he’s recorded 913 yards rushing, 388 yards receiving and 21 rushing and receiving touchdowns. As a passer, he’s completed 71.1% of his attempts for 1,103 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions.
Those first four seasons were spent backing up Brees, but this offseason the Saints gave Hill a chance to compete for the starting quarterback job with Winston.
Hill changed his body so that it would be better suited for throwing the football than blocking defensive ends as a tight end. After an up-and-down training camp, the Saints named Winston the starting quarterback for the season opener, pushing Hill back into his utility role.
More injured Saints added to estimated practice report, including several starters
New Orleans was just starting to expand Hill’s duties when his season was derailed by Washington Football Team defensive back William Jackson III. Hill was laying out for a pass that was thrown in front of him when Jackson collided with his helmet. Hill left the field on a cart with a concussion and missed the next two games.
When speaking to the media for the first time nearly a month after the injury, Hill said he did not recall a period of about 45 minutes after the hit.
The injury might’ve also altered the course of the Saints season.
Two games after Hill’s concussion, Winston’s season ended when he tore his ACL against Tampa Bay. Siemian replaced Winston mid-game, which Payton said would have been the move even if Hill had played. But Payton also indicated Hill would have been the starter had the switch not been made mid-game.
Hill returned the next week, but has mostly been limited to a few special packages as Siemian has operated the first-team offense. The Saints have not said how, if at all, Hill’s concussion against Washington has factored into their starting quarterback decisions.
In Sunday’s loss to Philadelphia, Hill was only available as an emergency quarterback. He missed several days of practice last week with a foot injury, and spent the game watching from the sidelines in uniform but without his helmet.
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TAMPA BAY
WR MIKE EVANS brutally added to this total, from Steve Palazzolo of ProFootballFocus, on Monday.
Steve Palazzolo
@PFF_Steve
Of Tom Brady’s eight interceptions on the season, three have come on drops and another on a Hail Mary
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This from Scott Smith:
@ScottSBucs
John Lynch, being honored at halftime for his induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, with Derrick Brooks and Warren Sapp behind him: “We’ve got a guy up there in a suite, your time is coming Ronde Barber.”
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On Monday, QB TOM BRADY had a smile on his face, especially after an epic run. Grant Gordon of NFL.com:
Throwing with precision and swiftness, and surprisingly running with some of the latter, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers came out hot on Monday night.
There were some bumps in the road, but they ultimately got exactly what they needed, defeating the New York Giants, 30-10, and getting back to form as they snapped a two-game skid.
Coming off back-to-back losses in which Brady had a pair of interceptions in each defeat, the future Hall of Famer had a pair of touchdowns and 307 yards passing as he led a game-opening touchdown drive and then piloted the Buccaneers to the last 20 points of the game.
Noticeably frustrated following a Week 10 loss, Brady showed up for Monday’s postgame news conference with a smile curving his face.
“We played better,” Brady grinned. “Better for all of us when we play better.”
All was not well for Brady and the reigning Super Bowl champions heading into Monday night. As aforementioned, they had lost two in a row and Brady was facing a Giants team that has historically been trouble for TB12.
Brady and Co. set the tone for change from the onset, though, marching 73 yards on the game’s opening drive for a touchdown with the superstar signal-caller connecting on all five of his passes, including a 13-yard touchdown to Chris Godwin. Brady completed his first 10 passes of the game and finished the night 30 of 46 with an 89.7 rating. It was good for a get-right game, but as per usual, Brady pointed out that it could’ve gone smoother.
“We left some out there, we should’ve had another one before the half,” Brady said in reference to punting before the half after a hookup with Godwin to the Giants’ 1-yard line was negated by a penalty. “Just keep pushing forward.”
A Daniel Jones touchdown pass to former first-round offensive lineman Andrew Thomas led to a tie ballgame at 10-all in the second quarter, but the Buccaneers responded with a scoring march on the ensuing drive capped by a Ronald Jones touchdown run. It was the start of a 20-point run for the Bucs that played out in the proverbial game that wasn’t as close as the score would indicate.
Thus, even though the Giants responded from the Bucs’ opening salvo, it was Tampa Bay’s first shot that truly set the tone for a game in which the Buccaneers’ offense was consistent and their defense was dominant.
However, it was the veteran QB’s 10-yard sprint on the team’s second drive that proved to be the biggest highlight. And it was 10 yards, even though Brady said differently after the game.
“Eleven-yard run,” Brady said when asked about his 10-yard scramble. “Doesn’t happen very often so I do remember how far they go.”
Brady scrambled to the left, pulled off a low hurdle of a diving would-be tackler and then slid cleats up through a defender before springing up, pumping his fist and screaming aloud.
“It’s been forever. Probably never,” Brady said of “hurdling” an opponent. “That’s not what I do. Good to have it come up. Hopefully I can do that next week.”
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NFC WEST
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ARIZONA
A note from Scott Kacsmar:
@ScottKacsmar
#NFL 2002 & 2014 – the only two seasons in the 32-team era where every team lost 4+ games.
We could get there again but Arizona winning these games without Kyler & Hopkins has been big.
Could we possibly get everyone to 12-5. If so the Cardinals, now 9-2 and on bye this week, would have to go 3-3 against this remaining schedule (and other things happen of course):
Sun, Dec 5 @Chicago
Mon, Dec 13 vs LA Rams
Sun, Dec 19 @ Detroit
Sat, Dec 25 vs Indianapolis
Sun, Jan 2 @ Dallas
Sun, Jan 9 vs Seattle
Colts and Cowboys should be tough, but can’t see them losing to Chicago or Detroit. Feels like 4-2 or 5-1 for 13-4 or 14-3.
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AFC SOUTH
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INDIANAPOLIS
TE JACK DOYLE loves blocking for RB JONATHAN TAYLOR.
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has put the league on notice in recent weeks, punctuated by his five-touchdown performance in Indianapolis’ victory over Buffalo on Sunday.
Taylor has now rushed for 172, 116, and 185 yards in his last three games while accounting for eight touchdowns. After Sunday’s game, teammates Nyheim Hines and Darius Leonard said Taylor should be a part of the MVP discussion.
On Monday, tight end Jack Doyle noted just how good of a teammate Taylor is and how much he enjoys playing with the running back.
“The thing about Jonathan, like you said, he’s doing stuff like — sometimes in meetings on Mondays, [offensive coordinator] Marcus [Brady] will be up there going over the offense and he starts reading off stats of what Jonathan’s doing and you’re like, really? That’s what he’s doing? He’s with LaDainian Tomlinson?” Doyle told reporters on Monday. “He’s setting franchise records when we’ve had Edgerrin James here and Marshall Faulk. It’s crazy.
“Then you see the way Jonathan carries himself and you’re just like, man, this guy’s incredible. He’s awesome. He’s the ultimate teammate, he’s the ultimate team player and Frank [Reich] was giving him the game ball yesterday in the locker room and he’s got to give a speech about it and all he’s talking about is how we did it together, how we’re doing this together. We’re playing as one unit, offense, defense, special teams. That’s just who Jonathan is. When you have a teammate like that who’s one of the best players in the NFL, there’s nothing better than playing with him and being a teammate and everyone just loves JT.”
Taylor leads the league with 1,122 yards rushing, 13 rushing touchdowns, 1,444 yards from scrimmage, and 15 total touchdowns. He’s averaging 102 yards rushing per game, putting him on pace for 1,734.
That might not be enough to truly propel him into the MVP race, but at this point he’s one of the frontrunners for offensive player of the year.
You would think that it would be Taylor or WR COOPER KUPP for the NFL Offensive Player of the Year, right?
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AFC EAST
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BUFFALO
Shiel Kapadia of The Athletic goes all Aaron Rodgers and tells Bills fans to R-E-L-A-X.
The Buffalo Bills were not supposed to be in this spot. After last year’s run to the AFC Championship, Buffalo made a series of smart offseason moves to set itself up for a Super Bowl run this season. But after Sunday’s blowout loss to the Indianapolis Colts, the Bills have dropped to 6-4. Not only have they fallen out of first place in the AFC East, but Buffalo is barely hanging on to a playoff seed with the No. 7 seed.
So what’s gone wrong? Should Bills fans be in panic mode? Or is there time to get back on track and make a run?
Let’s take a look. Numbers are courtesy of TruMedia and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. For definitions of some of the metrics used below, please reference our analytics glossary.
How does this year’s Bills team compare to last year’s?
The Bills went 13-3 last season. In terms of point differential per game and Expected Points Added (EPA) per game the Bills are significantly better this year by both measures. Of course, there’s a significant caveat. Going into Week 11, they had faced the NFL’s easiest schedule, according to Football Outsiders. The Bills have beaten up on some bad teams. But as the last few weeks have reminded us, it’s hard to beat up on bad teams. Just ask the Tennessee Titans, who lost to the Houston Texans on Sunday. There are no sure things.
Even if we look at DVOA, which takes schedule strength into account, this year’s version of the Bills has been as good as, if not better, than last year’s version.
Ok smart guy, then why are they 6-4?
This is where we have to guard against recency bias. Sunday was awful. The Bills got thoroughly dominated. But that was very much the exception. Their other three losses were all one-possession games. None of their six wins were decided by one possession. They all involved a margin of victory of at least 15 points.
Last year, the Bills were 4-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer. This year, they’re 0-3. If that 0-3 were 1-2, we’d be looking at a 7-3 team. If it were 2-1, the Bills are probably being touted as a better version of last year’s squad and Super Bowl favorites.
Ifs and buts, candies and nuts, yes, it feels like a silly exercise. But the point is that there’s a certain degree of randomness to football games — questionable penalty calls, fumble luck, fluky turnovers. Those things often make the difference in one-possession games, and they often even out. Generally speaking, producing blowout wins and close losses is indicative of a pretty good team.
So the 2021 Bills are fine? They’re going to benefit from some regression in one-score games, win the AFC East, and go on a Super Bowl run?
I didn’t say that! Although many of the meaningful metrics reflect favorably on the Bills, the way in which they are succeeding is quite different. Their defense has been better than last year, and their offense has been worse.
DVOA is an efficiency metric from Football Outsiders. The Bills’ offense was fifth last year but has dropped all the way down to 14th this season. And that was before the Week 11 performance. EPA per drive measures how a unit performs relative to expectations. We know that it’s easier to score if the offense takes over at the opponents’ 20 than at its own 1. EPA takes that into account, and it shows that the Bills’ performance has dipped this season.
Having said that, there are a number of stats that suggest the Bills’ step back hasn’t been all that dramatic. Success rate measures play-to-play consistency. We know that a 4-yard gain on third-and-3 is good, but a 4-yard gain on third-and-10 is bad. Success rate takes that into account. It doesn’t, though, attribute greater weight to high-leverage plays like turnovers, touchdowns or big gains. Each play is either successful (based on EPA), or it’s not. A 12-yard completion on third-and-6 is treated the same as a 40-yard completion. In terms of success rate, the Bills are actually slightly better in 2021 than they were in 2020.
Performance on third down can often be noisy, so sometimes it’s useful to look at how often a team nets a first down on first or second down. The Bills are at 28.8 percent (seventh league-wide), down slightly from 30.8 percent (third) last year.
Bottom line: The Bills’ offense has been far from a disaster. It hasn’t been as good as it was last year, but it’s been above average in a number of statistical categories.
Where has the offense taken a step back?
The first place to look is run versus pass. The Bills are the most pass-heavy team in the NFL. After last year’s playoff loss, Sean McDermott said he thought the team needed to improve its rushing efficiency. So has that happened? In some ways, yes. The Bills have been better in a number of metrics: DVOA, EPA per rush, success rate. It’s not a juggernaut run game by any means. But they’ve incorporated Josh Allen more and have been a little better than they were last year.
The passing game, though, has been a different story. Allen was third in EPA per play last year and is down to 12th this season. The Bills were third in passing DVOA last year and were 12th entering Week 11. Again, they’re a pass-heavy team, and they haven’t been as efficient when they’ve passed the ball.
So why haven’t they been as good passing? Have teams taken away the deep ball?
It’s felt like that at times this season, but the numbers suggest that’s actually not the case. Allen’s average pass last year traveled 8.8 yards. Allen’s average pass this year? It’s exactly the same: 8.8 yards.
Last year, 11.7 percent of his passes traveled 20 yards or more past the line of scrimmage. This year, it’s even higher at 12.8 percent. His EPA per attempt (0.73) on deep throws is third league-wide and better than it was last year (0.47).
If you prefer more traditional stats, Allen is completing 51 percent of his passes (second league-wide) and averaging 17.5 YPA (second) when throwing deep this year. He completed 43.3 percent and averaged 13.2 YPA last year. He already has 855 yards on deep passes this year. He had 884 all of last year!
As a team, the Bills are averaging 4.3 plays of 20-plus yards per game. Last year, they were at 4.75.
So no, the deep passing game is not the issue. In fact, it’s been one of the things saving this offense.
It must be the offensive line then — leaky protection and too many sacks?
To be fair, there have been instances when the offensive line has had issues. I suggest reading the brilliant Joe Buscaglia every week if you want more details on those issues.
But overall, pass protection has not been a major problem. The Bills are allowing pressure at a lower rate (33.3 percent) than they did last year (36.5 percent). They are top-10 in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric, which measures how often protection holds up for at least 2.5 seconds. Allen is taking sacks at a lower rate (3.8 percent) than he did last year (4.3 percent). And his EPA on sacks is better this year than it was last year.
Injuries, of course, have been a factor. And again, the offensive line hasn’t been great. But overall, the numbers suggest that the pass protection hasn’t been a major problem, especially when compared to last year.
Ok, it has to be those two-deep coverages everyone’s talking about then, right? I see you, Cris Collinsworth!
Nope. Allen ranks sixth out of 26 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per play against two-deep coverages. He’s actually been better against two-deep coverages than against single-high coverages this season.
When teams have played two-high coverages against Allen, he’s completed 67.3 percent of his passes while averaging 7.6 yards per attempt (YPA). Just one of his eight interceptions has come against two-deep coverages. Seven have been against single-high coverages.
Geez, you might be the most annoying writer on this site. Just freakin’ tell us already. What’s up with the offense?
Thank you for your patience. The numbers reveal a few main factors and a number of smaller contributing factors.
The first big factor: interceptions. Allen’s interception rate (2.1 percent) is up only slightly when compared to last year’s (1.7 percent). But EPA can help tell us how costly the interceptions are. If it’s fourth-and-15 and a quarterback throws an interception 50 yards downfield (the old arm punt), well, that’s not a big deal. But if the interception prevents the offense from potentially scoring or sets the opponent up to score, well, that hurts. Allen ranks 29th out of 37 quarterbacks in EPA on interceptions. The Bills have already been hurt more, in terms of EPA, on interceptions through 10 games this year than they were through 16 games last year.
It sounds stupid and obvious, but the truth is if Allen is just league-average with interceptions the rest of the way, the offense will get a big boost.
Another big issue: fourth downs. They’ve been a disaster for the Bills. Buffalo is 3-for-10 on fourth downs. As a point of reference, league average is 51.3 percent. The most infamous fourth down, of course, was the botched sneak at the end of their game against the Titans. Overall, the Bills have the second-worst EPA in the NFL on fourth downs. Last year, they were 8-for-10 on fourth downs and above league-average in terms of EPA. Again, just getting to at least league-average here the rest of the way would give the offense a lift — specifically when they’re in close games.
And then there are some other contributing factors. Next Gen Stats tracks completion percentage above expectation. It looks at the types of throws each quarterback is attempting, based on distance, receiver separation, pressure and other factors. It then compares a quarterback’s actual completion percentage to what was expected. What’s interesting is that the types of throws Allen is attempting — in terms of degree of difficulty — this year are similar to last year. His expected completion percentage last year was 64.8; this year it’s 64.6. Last year, 12 percent of his throws were into tight windows; this year it’s 13.1 percent.
But Allen hasn’t been quite as accurate. He ranks 16th in completion percentage above expectation (+0.9 percent). Last year, he was second (+4.6 percent). According to Sportradar, Allen has been on-target with 69.6 percent of his throws to Stefon Diggs. That number is down from 82.5 percent last year. Diggs averaged 95.9 yards per game and 2.51 yards per route run last year. He’s at 77.3 yards per game and 2.09 yards per route run this year. It’s the difference between being a top-five wide receiver in terms of efficiency and production and a top-15 wide receiver.
Cole Beasley’s production has also dipped from last year. And Allen has been on target with just 65.5 percent of his attempts to Emmanuel Sanders. The Allen-to-Sanders duo could theoretically improve down the stretch with more reps, given that Sanders is in his first season in Buffalo.
And the last thing to mention is penalties, which have hurt Buffalo’s offense. The Bills rank 27th in EPA on offensive penalties.
How have you gone this long without mentioning the defense that got gashed Sunday?
The Bills’ defense stunk against the Colts. It was their worst game of the season. But there’s a reason why it’s more useful to look at large samples over small samples. Here’s where the Bills’ defense ranks through 11 weeks:
1st in EPA per drive
1st in success rate
2nd in points allowed
DVOA tries to account for schedule strength, and the Bills’ defense was first going into Week 11. If we look at just rushing defense, the Bills ranked third in DVOA going into Week 11. Those rankings are obviously going to dip after the disaster against the Colts, but the point is this defense has been really good for much of the season.
Going forward, given the schedule, it’s entirely possible that the defense takes a step back. They have the fourth-highest EPA on turnovers of any defense, and takeaways will be harder to come by against better opponents. Buffalo’s run defense, specifically, is something to monitor and could grow into a serious issue. We’ll learn more about this group after matchups against the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Bills’ formula for success this season was supposed to be an elite offense combined with a competent defense. Through 11 weeks, the offense hasn’t been as good as it was supposed to be, and the defense has been better than expected. It’s entirely possible that the defense declines, the offensive improves, and the Bills still produce a winning formula down the stretch.
So where does this leave us?
I still believe in the Bills. They’ve shown a willingness to adjust this season, whether that’s meant trying out different personnel groupings or evolving to use more play-action under center. They have the coaches and the players to come up with answers.
In the NFL, every week feels like its own season. If we zoom out and look at the Bills, they have an offense that’s been a little bit off but still above average. Allen and Diggs are healthy. If they perform a little better with turnovers, fourth downs, and penalties, that could be enough to make them a top-10 or top-five unit. And defensively, the pieces are in place to be competitive most weeks, even if that didn’t happen against Indianapolis.
With two remaining games against the Patriots, the Bills are positioned to control their own fate in the AFC East. They end the season with home games against the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets. They have a smart coaching staff and a talented roster. It would not surprise me at all to see the Bills figure things out down the stretch and position themselves as a dangerous team going into the postseason.
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THIS AND THAT
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THE ST. LOUIS CASE
Will the City of St. Louis go for the jugular in a trial, or settle for a boatload in mediation. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
A little more than a month, the high-stakes litigation arising from the relocation of the Rams will go to trial in St. Louis. Starting today, the parties will convene in an effort to resolve the case.
It’s mediation time for the NFL and the various St. Louis plaintiffs who sued the league over the decision of the Rams to return to California after two decades in Missouri.
Mediation has become a popular tool in recent decades for reducing the number of items on court dockets. Most judges, who aren’t paid by the hour or by the case, now require that the parties submit to the mediation process, which is far simpler than it sounds.
In advance of the mediation, the parties agree on a third person, usually a retired judge or a lawyer with specific experience in similar cases, who presides over settlement discussions. To start the day, the mediator typically conducts an introductory sessions with the parties. Sometimes, the two sides get a chance to make their case in the presence of the opponent. Many mediators prefer not to have open swordplay at a time when the goal is to promote conciliation; after a quick meet-and-greet, the mediator often directs the parties to separate rooms for the balance of the session.
Then, the mediator literally engages in shuttle diplomacy. The mediator typically meets first with the plaintiffs and their lawyers. After talking through the issues, usually with some gentle nudging by the mediator as to potential weaknesses in the plaintiffs’ position, the mediator receives the initial settlement position.
The mediator then goes to the room where the defendants have been waiting. Sometimes it’s a short wait, sometimes it’s multiple hours. The mediator talks through the issues with the defendants and their lawyers. It’s the same drill. Hear them out. Let them feel like they’re getting a chance to speak their mind in a setting that sort of feels like having a day in court. The mediator again pushes back gently on any obvious weaknesses.
Then, the mediator shares the first settlement demand with the defendants. They huff and puff (usually) before countering.
Once the two sides establish the high and low of the settlement range, the next move by the plaintiffs goes a long way toward revealing whether a settlement is possible. If, for example, the plaintiffs open at $100 and the defendants offer $10, a move to $99 means a settlement likely won’t occur. A reduction to, for example, $85 gets the ball rolling toward a middle ground.
As the mediator continues to go back and forth and back and forth, the mediator often becomes more pointed when it comes to pointing out weaknesses. The mediator needs both sides to accept that the litigation process entails much uncertainty, and that the no one knows what the outcome will be.
The NFL’s mediation with St. Louis becomes complicated by Rams owner Stan Kroenke’s effort to back away from his supposed obligation to indemnify his partners as to the full amount of the settlement or judgment. It may require a third room, where Kroenke and his lawyers are separate from the rest of the league and its lawyers.
Ultimately, the mediator will have to find a way to bring everyone together, if the mediation is going to be successful. And success often depends on the skill of the mediator. It also hinges on the willingness of the various sides to resolve the case and to put it behind them. Sometimes, one or both of the parties are determined to go to trial. Sometimes, the lawyers are stubborn. Sometimes, there’s no way to work it out.
The judge simply requires that the parties try to do it. And by “parties,” a common sticking point becomes whether the persons involved on behalf of the parties possess full power to resolve the case. That becomes a problem specifically as it relates to the authority of the person participating on behalf of the defendants.
In this case, Kroenke needs to be present. The other owners need to be present. It’s not enough to be involved by phone. For mediation to work, the key participants in the case must be in the room. They have to be in position to hear directly from the mediator, directly. They need to eventually feel the annoyance of being stuck in a room as the hours tick by. They need to inevitably decide whether to get this thing worked out or not so that everyone can go home and move on.
Ben Fischer of Sports Business Journal reported last week that Kroenke’s lawyers believe the case can be settled in the range of $500 million to $750 million. If it’s ever going to happen, it makes sense to just make it happen now.
We think it will be more – either in mediation or at trial.
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CLASS OF 2022 QB RANKINGS
It might be a good year to be someone like QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO on the free agent QB market this year, because there are no college QBs for teams to fixate on. Eric Edholm of YahooSports.com updates us on the top 10/1 prospects (DB favorite BRENNAN ARMSTRONG of Virginia makes his debut):
Some of the players we list below may not enter next year’s draft, but we’ll list anyone who has a remote shot to declare early.
Here’s how we see the NFL QB prospect hierarchy stacking up after the first 10 weeks of college football.
1. Matt Corral, Ole Miss (Last week: 2nd)
Corral has been in the No. 1 spot longer than any quarterback this season. We’ve seen the easy arm velocity, the precision on RPO throws, the mobility and the ability to strike downfield readily — all of that is exciting.
There’s a good-to-very-good NFL prospect in there. But in what’s becoming all too clear, even to still-casual draft fans, is that Corral would probably represent one of the weaker QB1s in recent memory. (The same would apply to Kenny Pickett, or any other QB in this class.)
It struck us late in the game against Vanderbilt when Corral threw a poorly timed red-zone interception when the Rebels had their foot on the neck of the Commodores. Now let’s be clear: One throw does not an evaluation make. But it’s the kind of play that gives us the willies with Corral as any kind of immediate contributor in 2022. He’s had just enough of these types of throws to give us pause, even as we appreciate his tangible upside.
Corral is all in on the 2022 NFL draft, and he likely will go moderately high. In the right setting, with the right surrounding cast and time to develop behind the scenes, Corral could be a weapon. But like with Zach Wilson — whom Corral most resembles, we believe — expecting overnight success might be a dangerous proposition.
Our view: Corral simply can’t be placed at the same level of prospect as the past four QB1s: Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield.
2. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh (Last week: 1st)
The Pickett-Brennan Armstrong battle (more on this one below) was an absolute gas, a 48-38 shootout that came down to the wire. Pickett once again lit up the scoreboard with 340 yards and four TDs. But he also had some concerning moments as well, as he often tried to do too much or failed to handle pressure well.
His interception before the half was strange but not offensive; it was, after all, a pseudo-Hail Mary (even if it came on second down and there were 19 seconds left as he launched the prayer). But the pick that immediately followed early in the third quarter was a classic “what was that?” throw into heavy traffic. It never should have been attempted.
But the more pressure UVA threw at Pickett, the less comfortable he looked. He does a nice job resetting his feet and delivering strikes, but we’ve seen Pickett get greedy at times and hold onto the ball too long, allowing too much pressure to enter his kitchen.
On what ended up as the game-clinching TD pass, Pickett (throwing across his body) underthrew Jordan Addison and frankly should have been intercepted, with the precocious receiver bailing out his QB with a great play on the ball. We remain Pickett fans on the whole, but there are some concerning elements to his game that can’t go overlooked.
3. Sam Howell, North Carolina (Last week: 3rd)
Howell sat for the game against Wofford with a chest injury after taking a beating the week prior against Pitt. The Tar Heels have Friday’s game against North Carolina State left, and they’re now bowl-eligible, so Howell could still have two games remaining in his college career.
4. Carson Strong, Nevada (Last week: 4th)
As he does nearly every time out, Strong unleashed some gorgeous throws this weekend. Arm talent-wise, there might not be a better prospect in the 2022 class. But watching him limp around through the 3OT loss to Air Force, taking seven sacks and several more hits along the way, reminded us of two things:
1. Strong simply isn’t healthy now, slogging through a long season with a chronic knee issue.
2. He’s tough as heck.
Strong’s interception was on him — and he knew it — underthrowing his receiver over the middle by a few yards; it was just a poor decision. He also had another ball that should have been picked, but the Air Force defender just dropped it. But there were plenty of other highlight-reel throws that will be embraced by the NFL community and keep him in the fascinating category as a prospect.
We’re ambivalent with him overall, but Strong has some Jay Cutler-ish tools that must be respected.
5. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati (Last week: 6th)
Saturday’s win over SMU was arguably Ridder’s best game of the season. It’s at least in the running with the Notre Dame and Tulsa games. Ridder completed 17 of 23 passes for 274 and three TDs, ran for 46 yards and a score and even caught a 5-yard TD pass, hitting for the rare cycle.
He’s done just about everything you could ask from a QB prospect in his final season, improving incrementally and putting out very little poor tape — and a lot of good tape — against decent competition, even if the playoff committee doesn’t fully agree.
The question NFL evaluators have kicked around: How much better can he get? The answer to that will be borne out in his final draft spot. If pressed, we’d suggest he has an excellent chance to be taken in a similar range as Drew Lock and Jalen Hurts, but a strong postseason circuit could push Ridder into the late first-round picture for the right team wanting an experienced, athletic, relatively high-floor prospect.
6. Malik Willis, Liberty (Last week: 4th)
Every game you watch of Willis he seemingly makes two or three hair-raising plays that remind you why he’s considered a fascinating NFL prospect.
One from Saturday’s game against a good Louisiana team was a first-down strike on 3rd and 11 against tight man coverage in which he came off his first read and then went back to him after the receiver uncovered.
Another was a big-league throw amid heavy pressure early in the third quarter, launching a ball 40 yards into a perfect spot for a touchdown.
But there also are concerning plays, such as the near interception backed up in his own end in the first quarter, plus two actual picks, the second of which simply was a bad decision. Willis also botched the final possession of the first half, down 21-0 and getting knocked out of scoring range after three sacks. (The Flames also had some penalties and poor protection work against them.)
Right now, he’s an uber-talented prospect who absolutely cannot be thrust into an NFL lineup prematurely. We’re getting second-round vibes here, unless he absolutely blows up his postseason circuit.
7. Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky (Last week: 8th)
Just another day at the office for Zappe: 39 of 49 passing for 470 and six touchdowns in a win over Florida Atlantic. Yes, there were two interceptions, too, and we’ve noticed Zappe being a tad loosey-goosey with the ball in some recent outings, but that certainly is bound to happen with a high-volume passer that plays so much up-tempo.
Nonetheless, our evaluation remains the same on him. We view Zappe as a Chase Daniel-Gardner Minshew type of backup with replacement-starter capabilities who could carve out a pretty nice, respectable NFL career.
8. Phil Jurkovec, Boston College (Last week: 7th)
What do we make of his struggles at home against FSU on Saturday? Jurkovec was under assault much of the afternoon, as BC’s vaunted offensive line let him down more than once. Even so, Jurkovec was holding onto the ball too long at times, taking hits he didn’t need to and forcing him to rely on his scrambling ability too often.
The late interception under heavy pressure came on fourth down — a prayer of a throw we absolutely can forgive him for. But time and time again in the game, Jurkovec struggled on third downs and left some opportunities on the field.
Then again, we know Jurkovec is playing hurt and has only three games under his belt since returning early from the hand injury. We’re still torn on whether he should (or will) enter this year’s draft.
9. Jake Haener, Fresno State (Last week: n/a)
Off last weekend. They close up the regular season on Thursday at San Jose State.
T-10. Aidan O’Connell, Purdue and Brennan Armstrong, Virginia (Last week: n/a)
O’Connell and Armstrong both had terrific games on Saturday and have kept their surprising seasons rolling nicely.
O’Connell dominated Northwestern at Wrigley Field, completing 29 of 39 passes for 423 yards and three TDs. He was spraying pretty passes most of the game, including a pump and go for a TD to give Purdue some breathing room late in the third quarter.
The former walk-on has been coy about his postseason decision, whether to come out or make the leap to the NFL. But O’Connell has done everything he possibly can to make scouts pay attention to his ability.
Armstrong returned from injury to deliver a big-time performance in the close loss at Pitt. He matched Kenny Pickett throw for throw and arguably had a better game all around. We’re still not sure what to make of Armstrong’ total package as a prospect, but the sheer number of tight-coverage throws he completed is making us think long and hard about it.
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THE LATEST ODDS
From The Athletic:
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have moved ahead of everyone as the new betting favorite to win the NFL MVP award and Super Bowl LVI, respectively.
The quarterback and the defending champions jumped to the top of the list, via BetMGM, after their 30-10 Week 11 win over the Giants.
Brady passed Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who’s been the leader for the past couple of weeks. Brady carries +240 odds, while Allen dropped to second at +500 after the Bills’ blowout loss to the Colts.
The next cluster of players includes the Rams’ Matthew Stafford (+900), Cowboys’ Dak Prescott (+900), Packers’ Aaron Rodgers (+900), Chargers’ Justin Herbert (+1100), Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes (+1100), Cardinals’ Kyler Murray (+1200) and Ravens’ Lamar Jackson (+1400).
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor carries the best non-QB odds at +2000. Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (+120) actually leads Taylor (+200) in the race for the league’s offensive player of the year award.
Browns defensive end Myles Garrett and Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs are tied for the lead to win the league’s defensive player of the year honor at +300. Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt (+500) isn’t far behind.
Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (+100) has jumped Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (+125) as the favorite to win the league’s offensive rookie of the year award. Chase has been the favorite for nearly two months.
In terms of Super Bowl favorites, Tampa Bay sits at +500 after its Week 11 victory.
The Chiefs have also shifted upward to No. 2 on the list, standing at +700 as they ride a four-game winning streak. The Bills held the top spot for the last couple of week, but they’ve fallen to a tie for third at +850 with the Rams and the Cardinals. The next cluster of teams are the Packers (+900), Cowboys (+1100), Ravens (+1100), Patriots (+1200) and Titans (+1600).
BetMGM also has the odds for the exact Super Bowl LVI outcome. Here are the matchups leading the way:
Buccaneers beat Chiefs: +2200
Chiefs beat Buccaneers: +2500
Buccaneers beat Bills: +2500
Bills beat Buccaneers: +3000
Buccaneers beat Ravens: +3000
Buccaneers beat Patriots: +3500
Which team might be the best Super Bowl bet outside the Buccaneers?
Andrew DeWitt, senior sports betting editor: It’s a little surprising to see the Patriots at 12-1 despite their great start. Bill Belichick is setting up Jones for success on the offensive side of the ball and the defense is carrying the way for New England. If you think there’s a chance that the Bucs and Patriots meet in the Super Bowl, those odds are at 40-1 right now. The media would have no issue coming up with storylines for that game.
Which player might be the best MVP bet outside Brady?
Dewitt: Taylor at 20-1 is an interesting bet. Look, the MVP award might as well be re-named the QB award as no position other than quarterback has won since 2012 when Adrian Peterson won. Taylor is putting up ridiculous numbers for a surging Colts team and none of the QBs seem to want to take over the race. That being said, I think this award is Brady’s to lose right now. The storyline is there for him to win another MVP at age 44.
What’s the challenge for Chase to catch Jones in the OROY race?
DeWitt: If the Patriots end up making the playoffs, I don’t think there’s a way for Chase to catch Jones. Similar to MVP, this award is more likely to default to a quarterback. Chase has been insanely lucky in catching passes with more than 20 air yards and may be due for some regression like we saw last week against the Raiders. To win, Chase will need to lead all receivers in touchdowns and the Patriots will need to miss the playoffs.
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