The Daily Briefing Tuesday, November 28, 2023

THE DAILY BRIEFING

If The Season Ended Today in the NFC – things are closer at the edge of the Wild Card than they were a week ago.  A big week for Green Bay and the Rams are their wins brought them closer to division rivals Minnesota and Seattle who lost.  And remember, the Rams have a sweep over the Seahawks to work with.

Philadelphia    East     10-1                 6-0

San Francisco West      8-3                 6-1

Detroit             North     8-3                 5-2

Atlanta             South     5-6                 4-4

Dallas              WC1      8-3                 5-3

Seattle             WC2      6-5                 5-3

Minnesota       WC3      6-6                 6-3

Green Bay                    5-6                 4-3

LA Rams                       5-6     –           4-4

New Orleans                 5-6                 2-4

– – –

Correction – the SF firing of Chip Kelly in 2016 preceded the hiring of Kyle Shanahan, and not Jim Harbaugh.  The DB said otherwise yesterday.

NFC NORTH
 

MINNESOTA

The feel-good story of QB JOSHUA DOBBS hit a bump on Monday with 4 INTs.  Grant Gordon of NFL.com:

All the magic surrounding Joshua Dobbs’ arrival in Minnesota might well have vanished on Monday night.

 

After Dobbs threw four interceptions in the Vikings’ 12-10 loss to the Chicago Bears, Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell was non-committal to Dobbs remaining his starter while pledging to an evaluation ahead at the position.

 

“We’re going to take a look, you know really evaluate the inventory of plays now we have of Josh,” O’Connell answered when asked if he would consider a quarterback change.

 

Dobbs finished Monday’s loss completing 22 of 32 passes for 185 yards, the four interceptions and a 17-yard touchdown to T.J. Hockenson in the fourth quarter. Despite all his tribulations, Dobbs looked to have put the Vikings in position for another nail-biting win before Justin Fields, who had fumbled away possession twice late in the game, rallied the Bears down the field for a win.

 

Despite the INT issues — which weren’t all on him as Jordan Addison let one go off his hands to a defender — Dobbs said he was not focusing on whether the takeaways will result in him heading back to the bench.

 

“Honestly, I think that’s a coaching decision, but, no I don’t,” Dobbs said. “I just focus on myself, focus on how I can help this team win, focus on how I can be a better teammate, a better quarterback and focus on how I can make sure the offense is in the right play based on the scenario to go out and execute and play at a high level.”

 

Just a few days after he was acquired via trade from the Arizona Cardinals, Dobbs exploded into the headlines when the journeyman QB guided the Vikings past the Atlanta Falcons for a victory on Nov. 5. A week later, another dramatic win was had against the New Orleans Saints.

 

However, Monday stands as the Vikings’ second consecutive loss, with Dobbs having turned the ball over a combined six times in the defeats and countered with just two touchdown passes. Those six giveaways since Week 11 are tied for the most in the NFL in that span with the Detroit Lions’ Jared Goff.

 

While Dobbs and the Vikings’ fortunes have changed, so too has the health of Jaren Hall, the rookie QB who Dobbs filled in for after he was concussed against the Falcons, and veteran backup Nick Mullens, who was available off injured reserve Monday.

 

“We got healthy, we’ve got Jaren back available to us, and then Nick Mullens is available as well,” O’Connell said.

 

O’Connell admitted he mulled over inserting Mullens on Monday, but stuck with Dobbs.

 

“It started to get to the point where I was trying to think almost what would give us a spark, maybe throughout the game, we’ve got the sudden change on that turnover, and then Josh took us down the field for a touchdown,” O’Connell said. “As much as the turnovers absolutely cripple you, offensively, I still thought Josh battled, no flinch, and just kept playing and competing to try to help us win. I really credit him doing that, it’s hard to do on a night where you’ve turned the football over. This guy’s a competitor.”

 

However, Dobbs’ performance Monday was evidence as to why he hasn’t stuck with all his previous organizations such as the Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns and Cardinals.

 

He’s able to jump-start an offense, but in each case he’s sputtered after a while.

 

“At the end of the day,” Dobbs said, “when the ball’s in my hand and guys are opening, I’m gonna keep shooting, keep throwing the ball to where it needs to go and we’ll clean up everything else from there.”

 

The Vikings kept winning after Justin Jefferson went down with a hamstring injury. Now he’s likely to be activated off injured reserve by Wednesday, NFL Network Insider Tom Pelissero reported Monday. They kept winning after Kirk Cousins was lost for the season and Hall briefly took over before Dobbs flew onto the scene.

 

Now, Minnesota sits at 6-6 heading into its bye week, precariously clutching to the No. 7 seed in the NFC.

 

Before they recommence their season in Week 14 against the Las Vegas Raiders, O’Connell will decide if Hall or Mullens is best for the future or whether he believes Dobbs has some more tricks up his sleeve.

 

“Look, I think what Josh Dobbs has really done coming in here on short notice and really going 2-2 in a stretch where a lot of people might have thought Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson being out, the deck’s stacked against us,” O’Connell said. “That’s not the way that this team thinks, it’s not the way we operate, it’s not the way I operate, we’re trying to go out and win every football game we play. And we’re going to evaluate what we’ve been able to do, things we need to get better at, and we’ll take a look at what that looks like.”

 

Has Dobbs’ feel-good story’s final chapter been written in the Twin Cities? It appears that’s a decision O’Connell will pen in the bye week ahead.

NFC EAST
 

WASHINGTON

Jonathan Jones of CBSSports.com on what he’s hearing about Commanders management.

The Washington Commanders are 4-8 on the season, winless in the NFC East, just fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio and have a new owner who has transparently stated he will make changes throughout the organization after the season is complete.

 

Multiple sources tell CBS Sports that managing partner Josh Harris is inclined to keep Ron Rivera through the end of the regular season, but it is widely assumed that he will not be retained as head coach and the ostensible chief of football for the Commanders after the 17th game of the year.

 

That means there will be a search for a head coach, and very possibly a general manager, in Washington this offseason. And both jobs are thought to be among the most attractive in the NFL.

 

Rivera finishing out the season is likely to take place even if Washington is mathematically eliminated from postseason contention weeks earlier. One source said Rivera has “earned the right” to stay through the end, while others have noted Harris keeping Rivera through a lost season presents himself as a benevolent owner who’s willing to fairly evaluate everything without making rash decisions.

 

The decision to fire Del Rio was Rivera’s, with no stated mandate from ownership. The defense has struggled all season — they were bottom-four in yards allowed and points allowed before the Chase Young and Montez Sweat trades — and a team source indicated the defense could use a boost with Del Rio out of a job.

 

Rivera signed a five-year deal ahead of the 2020 season, so he still has one year left on his contract.

 

Dan Snyder hired Rivera to be a stabilizing force in the dysfunctional organization Snyder oversaw. Rivera brought a level of professionalism and maturity to the program, while being the leader of all football operations from the jump.

 

Rivera got Washington to the playoffs in his first year, winning the NFC East with a 7-9 record but losing in the wild-card round to the eventual Super Bowl-winning Buccaneers. But the team couldn’t build off that success, and barring an undefeated finish to this season, he will finish his years in Washington without a winning season and just one playoff appearance.

 

Since 1978, no coach other than Joe Gibbs has taken the Washington franchise to the playoffs more than once in their tenure there.

 

Harris purchased the team for a record $6.05 billion over the summer, and the deal wasn’t finalized until July. He had no designs on making any changes to the coaching staff just before the season, or in-season for that matter. But in October, he told the Sports Business Journal that changes across the building were certain to take place.

 

“Not everyone’s going to make it. But at the same time, I found a very earnest, hardworking group of people that really want to rise to the challenge,” Harris said. “Right now, we’re trying to really support everyone but also raise expectations and hold people accountable. So we’ll have to see where it ends up. But right now, it’s all been working great.”

 

The Commanders have the sort of setup where the head coach runs all of football. The Commanders hired Martin Mayhew as the GM in January 2021, but Rivera holds final say on football matters.

 

A Rivera dismissal at the end of the season would create the possibility of more traditional roles for head coach and GM, and that could lead to Washington getting a new general manager, too.

 

“Everyone’s shooting for Washington,” one personnel executive said of the Commanders not-vacant GM position.

 

Washington has a healthy salary cap situation, good draft picks and an ownership group that — admittedly not even a half-year into its rule — appears competent. There’s an allure to a job in Washington that hasn’t been there for a quarter-century.

 

Considering Harris’ background, a league source tells CBS Sports that any candidate with an open-mindedness to data and analytics will likely be a plus.

 

Still, the season isn’t done. And there’s plenty more to evaluate in Washington before any decisions are ultimately made. Harris will continue to exercise patience before making any major decisions with the organization.

NFC SOUTH
 

CAROLINA

Is owner David Tepper going to deem his recently hand-picked GM Scott Fitterer to be part of the problem or part of the solution?  That question and others are asked and answered by Jeremy Fowler and David Newton of ESPN.com:

This is the second straight season that Tepper has fired his head coach, as he let Matt Rhule go after a 1-4 start last season, making the Panthers the fourth team to make a midseason change in back-to-back seasons (1961-62 Raiders, 1975-76 Jets,1985-86 Bills), according to Elias.

 

The Panthers haven’t made the playoffs since 2017, and their 30-63 record since then is second worst to only the New York Jets.

 

Nothing has gone right this season, as the Panthers are the only team to rank in the bottom five in points per game on offense and points per game allowed on defense, while their offensive and defensive efficiency each rank 30th. And since 2000, Jimmy Clausen (Panthers, 2010) is the only NFL quarterback who has averaged fewer yards per dropback than Young (4.2) has this season.

 

What’s next for the Panthers as they try to turn things around again? ESPN reporters David Newton and Jeremy Fowler break it down:

 

Why fire Reich now?

Simple: Reich was hired because of his successful history of building offenses and developing quarterbacks, but the Panthers’ offense and the development of Young as their franchise quarterback were going nowhere. The offense ranks 30th in the NFL and is coming off a second straight game of scoring 10 points after Reich resumed playcalling duties from offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, who had the role for three games. The Panthers have gone five straight games scoring 15 or fewer points.

 

Young wasn’t getting better. If anything, he was getting worse. His Total QBR has ranked near the bottom of the league all season (currently 29th). There was no need to continue the charade that things would turn around, because there was no evidence it would. That Reich consistently said after losses that he had the players to win didn’t help, and neither did the fact the offensive unit he worked in concert with general manager Scott Fitterer to build around Young has failed miserably. There simply was no reason to continue on this path. — Newton

 

Why did the Reich/Young relationship fail to launch?

It wasn’t so much the relationship that failed — it was the failure to build a team around Young that could succeed.

 

Reich and general manager Scott Fitterer moved forward with an offensive line that in 2022 was successful the second half of the season when Carolina turned to a power running game, but was horrid the first half of the season when Rhule and his staff tried to run a spread offense.

 

Reich’s spread offense typically features four to five receivers, which left Young vulnerable behind a group that couldn’t protect him. He has been sacked 40 times, tied for fifth most by a player through his first 10 games since sacks were first tracked in 1963. He was pressured an NFL-high 14 times Sunday. Then there was the lack of receiving weapons around Young. Outside of wide receiver veteran Adam Thielen, nobody Reich brought in produced consistently.

 

Ultimately, Reich failed Young. — Newton

 

Who is interim head coach Chris Tabor?

Carolina’s special teams coach is one of the few holdovers from Rhule’s staff. His strength is dealing with people and messaging, so from that standpoint, he is ideal to serve as the interim coach. Plus, there’s little chance Tepper will be faced with the decision of whether to make Tabor the permanent coach after the season, unlike last season with Steve Wilks, who almost led the Panthers to the playoffs with a 6-6 finish. Tepper took a lot of heat for not giving Wilks the job.

 

Tabor has been a head coach only once, in 2001 for Culver-Stockton College in Missouri. He was an interim coach in the NFL briefly for the Chicago Bears in 2021 after head coach Matt Nagy tested positive for COVID. His history in the NFL has been on special teams, particularly for the Bears. Again, he’s not expected to be a part of the search process for the next coach. — Newton

 

What will Jim Caldwell’s influence be as special adviser on offense?

Caldwell, 68, will help give Brown, the offensive coordinator, guidance as he resumes playcalling duties again. Caldwell has a long history of offensive success as an NFL head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Brown is a former NFL running back who also coached the position. So look for Caldwell to provide insight in the passing game and help develop Young as he did with Peyton Manning during his time with the Indianapolis Colts. This feels like it’s more about helping Young than anything. — Newton

 

Could GM Scott Fitterer or others be in danger?

I don’t get the sense that anyone in Carolina feels overly safe right now. Collateral damage could be a factor amid massive change that has billowed over the franchise the past 14 months, dating back to the Rhule firing. But Fitterer has maintained a good relationship with Tepper since his 2021 hiring, so perhaps that absolves him here.

 

The decisions to draft Young and hire Reich don’t fall solely on Fitterer — Panthers brass was unanimous on both decisions.

 

Fitterer is well liked and works well with others. Clearly, though, the Panthers have missed often in the past three drafts. Franchise pillars are scarce and so is quality depth. The offensive line, which includes former No. 6 overall pick Ikem Ekwonu, has regressed. And with no first-round pick in 2024, Tepper needs a personnel head to do more with less in April. Maybe that’s Fitterer. But the pressure is on, regardless. — Fowler

 

What are the offseason prospects to improve talent?

The Panthers should look to acquire more draft capital. Offseason contract negotiations with linebacker Brian Burns were rocky, so a sign-and-trade scenario off the franchise tag could aid the rebuild (Carolina might not get the two first-rounders and more like the Rams offered last year, but Burns remains a coveted talent). In a perfect world, the Panthers would like to keep Burns and pair him with a top-shelf bookend pass-rusher (Carolina looked into Washington’s Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the trade deadline, for example).

 

Adding a vertical threat on offense is a must. Free agent receiver Tee Higgins should be atop the priority list. He’d be a perfect complement to Young. And with an estimated $39 million in cap space next year, addressing needs such as receiver or pass-rusher in free agency should be no problem.

 

Injuries have left Carolina thin at offensive guard, a position with plenty of impact players available in 2024 free agency. The NFL is built on parity, where a series of sound roster moves can elevate a team back into the playoff mix in a hurry. But this is a team that has traded away too many picks and needs to conserve what it has, possibly adding to it. — Fowler

 

What’s the temperature in the locker room?

Frustration over losing is the main thing. There never was the sense that Reich lost the locker room. Most players spoke highly of Reich and his ability to remain consistent even during the trying times. Team leaders like Young and Thielen consistently defended Reich, saying it was on the players to produce. — Newton

 

Who are potential candidates Tepper may target as the next head coach?

Carolina has quality in-house candidates in defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero and offensive coordinator Brown. But it wouldn’t be shocking if Tepper looks externally for the second consecutive year. Last offseason, Carolina had interest in Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who opted to stay in Detroit and will be high on teams’ wish lists this cycle. While Carolina might not be the top job available, there are only 32 available and money talks. Also fitting the young offensive wizard mold are Philadelphia’s Brian Johnson and Houston’s Bobby Slowik, both 36.

 

Dallas’ Dan Quinn and Baltimore’s Mike Macdonald should be hot names on the defensive side, with usual suspects such as Cincinnati’s Lou Anarumo and Detroit’s Aaron Glenn figuring to be back on the circuit.

 

But, really, Carolina should prioritize leadership. Last year was about getting an offensive guy, and Rhule was the trendy collegiate name four years ago. You never know from where the right candidate will emerge. Word is Shane Steichen did not impress in his Carolina interview last year. Now, he’s got the Colts at 6-5 with a backup quarterback. Success can come from anywhere. — Fowler

How about this name – Greg Olson?  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

When the Colts fired Frank Reich last season, owner Jim Irsay replaced Reich with former player Jeff Saturday as the interim head coach. Saturday didn’t get the full-time job, but in Carolina, a former Panthers player apparently is interested in replacing Reich as the full-time coach.

 

Former Panthers tight end Greg Olsen, the top color analyst for Fox, would have interest in the Panthers’ vacancy if owner David Tepper approached him, The Athletic reports.

 

The move would be more stunning than Irsay’s decision to bring in Saturday as an interim head coach a year ago.

 

Olsen, like Saturday, has no coaching experience in college or the NFL.

 

He has coached his son’s Pop Warner team.

 

Olsen, 38, moved to the broadcast booth after his retirement in the spring of 2021 and worked his way up, but Tom Brady is expected to replace Olsen on Fox’s top NFL broadcast team.

 

The Panthers would face backlash over Olsen as the Colts did with Saturday and the Texans did in interviewing Josh McCown twice for their head coaching job. McCown was fired as the Panthers’ quarterbacks coach on Monday, which was his first coaching job in the NFL.

 

Olsen, whose father was a longtime high school coach in New Jersey, is a longshot even to get an interview, but the job is not a coveted one within the coaching ranks. The Panthers have had six head coaches in Tepper’s six seasons as owner, including three interim coaches.

 

Carolina is 30-63 with Tepper as owner, with only the Jets having a worse record in that time.

This guy is keeping score:

@JackKennedy

– Spent a 3rd on Will Grier

– Signed Bridgewater ($33M guaranteed).

– Cut Cam

– Traded a 2nd, 4th and 6th for Darnold

– Traded Bridgewater for a 6th

– Picked up Darnold’s $18.85M option

– Signed Cam

– Spent a 3rd on Matt Corral

– Traded for Baker

– Cut Baker

– Cut Cam

– Drafted Young over Stroud

– Fired Frank Reich after 11 games

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

There is a tale as to how LB JESSE LUKETA got to Sunday’s game.  Doug Haller of The Athletic:

Once the indicator light went on Sunday, Jesse Luketa recognized the problem. This had happened to his 2019 BMW before. Always the front left tire. But this time the tire pressure kept dropping.

 

The second-year Arizona Cardinals outside linebacker, on his way to State Farm Stadium for that afternoon’s contest against the Los Angeles Rams, exited Arizona State Route 101 in North Phoenix and found a gas station. He tried inserting air into the tire but it didn’t work. Luketa wondered if he had run over a nail.

 

It was 11:15 a.m. Luketa needed to be at the stadium by noon. He knows how to change a tire, but the BMW didn’t have a spare. The Cardinals offered to pick him up, but that would not have gotten him to the stadium in time. Luketa needed to make a decision. First, he contacted his position coach, Rob Rodriguez, and briefly explained the situation.

 

Then he looked to his right. There, pumping gas into an Infiniti QX80, was a man wearing an old Cardinals Patrick Peterson jersey. Luketa looked in the back and noticed the man’s three children were wearing Cardinals gear as well. Figuring the family might be going to the game or at least a tailgate, the Arizona linebacker decided he had nothing to lose. He rolled down the window.

 

“You guys going to the stadium?” Luketa asked the man.

 

J.W. Phillips, 31, had been running late when he had pulled over for gas. His family was excited. At halftime of the Cardinals game, son Brody was scheduled to play flag football on the stadium field. He looked at Luketa and noticed the bad tire.

 

“Yeah,” Phillips said.

 

“I’m a player,” Luketa said. “I got a flat tire. Can you guys help me out? I need a ride to the stadium.”

 

The Phillips’ are big sports fans. Their three children are involved in baseball, football and soccer. They live and breathe it. They attend a couple Arizona games every season, but Luketa is not a player most would recognize outside of his No. 43 jersey.

 

The Cardinals had selected the Penn State product in the seventh round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Since then, he had played in a reserve role, helping on special teams, bonding with teammates, who loved him because of his personality. Rodriguez, his position coach, calls Luketa an “International Man of Mystery.”

 

Phillips turned to wife Nicole and said, “Hey, this guy needs a ride.”

 

The husband and wife briefly discussed it and told Luketa to hop in.

 

Luketa sat in the front passenger’s seat. Nicole and the kids — Kane, 10; Brody, 7; and Kinsley, 5 — piled in the back, and off they went, headed to State Farm Stadium, which was about 45 minutes away. On most game days, Luketa liked listening to music on the drive. This time, he talked with his new friends, asking about their Thanksgiving.

 

What stood out immediately to the Phillips family. Luketa’s kindness. “He is just the nicest human being,” J.W. said. “The kids were giving fantasy football updates and who scored. They asked him how he went to college and where he played. We talked about how he’s from Canada. … About his family. He’s just very genuine and sincere.”

 

They pulled up to the players’ entrance at State Farm Stadium at 11:52 a.m. “Eight minutes to spare,” Luketa said. The linebacker told them to go ahead and use his pass to park and arranged “friends and family” access. The family’s reaction: “Well, this is nuts.”

 

After the game — the Cardinals lost, 37-14 — the Phillips family went to the “friends” area and watched the Arizona players leave. Luketa spotted them and posed for a photo. He promised to provide tickets for Arizona’s Dec. 17 home game against the San Francisco 49ers.

 

By then, word had gotten out within the organization. Teammates razzed Luketa. “One thing about me they always know, there’s always a situation with my car,” he said. Head coach Jonathan Gannon couldn’t recall a similar situation — fans rescuing a player in need — unfolding during his career.

 

“Kind of wild,” he said. “I would’ve been freaked out if I would’ve got a flat tire on my way in.”

 

On Monday, Luketa shared his story with local media. Asked how he got to the practice facility that day, he laughed and said: “Uber. I didn’t have a choice.” He said his car was getting serviced and he planned to have it back in a few hours. Or maybe it was time to get a new one. Regardless, Luketa was thankful for the Phillips family for helping him out.

AFC WEST
 

DENVER

Mike Sando of The Athletic explores the turnaround in Denver:

 

1. Russell Wilson and the Broncos suddenly have the same 6-5 record as the Seahawks, so let’s take a look at some of the particulars.

 

Football is a team game, and there’s credit to go around, but there’s no question where this analysis must begin.

 

• Defensive reversal: We see that below when plotting the Broncos’ cumulative offensive and defensive EPA (expected points added) across all 11 games, per TruMedia. We see the defense cratering in that 70-20 defeat to the Miami Dolphins. We then see four games of defensive stabilization, followed by a steady rise. At this rate, the defense will overtake the offense for season-long cumulative production even with that Miami game on the ledger.

 

 

It’s difficult to know why the defense played so poorly and why it’s playing so well now. Facing the Dolphins’ supercharged presnap motions so early in the season, in the Miami heat, while implementing a new scheme was surely part of the problem early. Demoting $70 million pass-rusher Randy Gregory after the Miami debacle and then cutting him one week later could have jolted the locker room and empowered the staff, providing some of the solution.

 

There is no way to quantify these sorts of moves.

 

The Chicago Bears improved after trading receiver Chase Claypool. The Pittsburgh Steelers became more productive on offense after firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada. The Buffalo Bills have topped 30 points in successive games after failing to do so since Week 4. Was it because they fired Ken Dorsey?

 

“We sometimes try to make this too much of a non-human game,” an offensive coach said. “We should not unfairly indict Randy Gregory here, but they moved on from him and they look like a different team.”

 

• Master coach: Sean Payton hardly resembled a master at his craft when losing track of the down at Kansas City and wasting a timeout, or when his offense bled through timeouts and struggled to get plays called on time. But he is resembling one now for the totality of this turnaround, which has included setting a new course for style of play.

 

Two years ago, when Payton’s tenure with New Orleans was winding down, his Saints beat Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a touchdown pass from Trevor Siemian, who had not thrown one in four years, to fullback Alex Armah, who had not caught one ever.

 

That victory was another day at work for a master coach. There was not much sustainable about it, but Payton showed long ago he could win more than one way. He was 10-3 with Teddy Bridgewater and Jameis Winston in the Saints’ lineup when given enough defensive support. That Payton is doing the same thing now with this version of Wilson, and with a defense that not long ago had some wondering whether coordinator Vance Joseph would last the season, brings him into the conversation for Coach of the Year, at least for the moment.

 

• Checking it down: Denver shifting to a lower-risk offense at first seemed to be a rebuke of Wilson. It still might be that in the bigger picture. But it was also about playing complementary football. Minimize risk, lean into your strength on defense and let your quarterback make a few plays as situations warrant.

 

“They don’t want the quarterback and the offense to mess it up after they were turning it over early in the year,” an opposing defensive coach said. “(Wilson) is throwing checkdowns as quick as I’ve ever seen him.”

 

The chart below shows Wilson’s average air yards per attempt (X-axis) and per completion (Y-axis) for every season of his career. The 2023 averages — 6.7 per attempt, 4.7 per completion — reside by themselves in the lower-left corner.

 

 

Before this season, Wilson had always thrown the ball much farther past the line of scrimmage — up to 3.2 yards farther on average, a massive difference.

 

“Sean is calling the game almost as if Russell is a rookie quarterback,” a different opposing defensive coach said. “Basically, it’s run, run and if he’s not throwing it either one or two in a progression, he can scramble, which plays to his strengths. I hate to use this term, but he’s a game manager. He’s a very good one, too.”

 

• Wilson adjusting: Wilson picked his spots effectively in the 29-12 victory against Cleveland on Sunday. There was a 31-yard strike to Courtland Sutton on third-and-8, a deep ball to Sutton for a 34-yard interference penalty on third-and-10, and a touchdown pass to tight end Adam Trautman on third-and-goal from the 8.

 

These were huge plays in a game that was close until the fourth quarter. Wilson completed only 13 of 22 passes for 134 yards, but it was enough.

 

As we zoom out to see where every team falls on that air yards scatter plot, Denver has surprising company in that lower-left corner. The Kansas City Chiefs are down there as well, as they play to their defensive strength while breaking in young receivers against defenses focused on stopping the pass.

 

 

It’s unclear whether the Broncos’ offense will grow into something more, but for the first time in more than a year, the team’s 2022 trade for Wilson and decision to extend his contract is no longer the consuming story. Denver’s success on the field is the story.

 

• Seattle comparison: With Denver surging and Seattle having lost three of its past four, the Broncos and their scaled-back offense actually outrank Seattle through 11 games this season. The chart below shows cumulative EPA for both offenses. Denver has stabilized some after a brutal 2022 season. Seattle has regressed.

 

 

One of the knocks on the 5-foot-11 Wilson is that he doesn’t see the middle of the field very well. His propensity for targeting the perimeter became a storyline late in his Seattle tenure. Perhaps surprisingly, Seattle’s current quarterback, Geno Smith, is throwing the ball outside the yard-line numbers 67 percent of the time, matching the highest full-season figure for Wilson since at least 2019, the earliest year this charting exists in our TruMedia dataset. That subject arose when I asked an opposing defensive coach for his read on Seattle’s offense after the team fell to 6-5 with a rough outing against the San Francisco 49ers.

 

“If you are good enough on the outside (at cornerback) to challenge those (Seattle) receivers, Geno starts to look more like he did in past years, and I think that is what is going on a little bit with him throwing outside the numbers so much,” this defensive coach said. “Overall, I like what they do. They have a good mix, and they are scripted pretty well. The lead back (Kenneth Walker) is really good. They miss him. I think they will pull back out of it a little bit.”

 

With coach Pete Carroll publicly questioning how offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is using the five eligible receivers, the Seahawks are still looking for their offensive identity. The Broncos have found theirs, and though it’s not anything to aspire to, it’s part of a winning equation Payton has used to beat Green Bay, Kansas City, Buffalo, Minnesota and Cleveland in successive weeks. Just as nobody expected.

 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Kris Rhim on the whys of the failure of WR QUINTON JOHNSTON to return to Sunday’s loss:

A frustrated Brandon Staley on Monday pushed back when questioned about why Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston did not return to Sunday’s game despite being cleared to do so, insisting that the reason had nothing to do with the rookie first-round pick’s play.

 

Johnston, who suffered a rib injury in the third quarter against the Baltimore Ravens, was cleared by trainers and told ESPN in the locker room afterward that he felt good to go back in. But Staley, discussing the situation postgame, said, “We didn’t feel like — through the flow of the game, with where he was — that it was the right thing to go back into the game.”

 

The Chargers ended up losing to the Ravens 20-10 to drop to 4-7 on the season. Johnston recorded one reception for 7 yards, while fellow rookie receiver Zay Flowers — who was selected by the Ravens one pick after Johnston in the 2023 NFL draft — finished with 62 yards and two touchdowns.

 

Staley, in a frustrated response to reporters on Monday, said that Johnston’s return didn’t have anything to do with his performance on the field.

 

“It’s not because of a lack of confidence. It’s not because of any other part of your imagination,” Staley said. “Quentin will be out there if he’s able to be out there.”

 

When another reporter asked a follow-up question that began with “I don’t mean to belabor the point on Quentin,” Staley interrupted: “You are belaboring the point,” before explaining his reasoning as to why Johnston didn’t play through his injury while others on the team did.

 

“It was a rib injury. OK? Your ribs affect how you breathe. OK? He plays a position where you have to reach in order to catch things,” Staley said. “So it affects the position, and so he was cleared to go back in the game, but there was apprehension on my part of putting him back in there until he felt good enough, and that is the storyline.”

 

Chargers receivers have played through injuries all year. Keenan Allen is currently playing through a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder, Joshua Palmer played through a knee sprain before going on injured reserve and Jalen Guyton played through a groin injury Sunday. And then there are many players in other position groups playing through injuries suffered in the team’s first 11 games.

 

For that reason, Johnston not returning to a game the Chargers needed to win in order to turn their season around was all the more concerning.

 

Staley also said that X-rays on Johnston’s ribs were negative and that he expects him to be at practice this week. The Chargers will look to avoid losing four games in a row when they travel to New England (2-9) on Sunday.

Johnston was the second in a line of four wide receivers taken in the first round in May.  His performance to date is clearly the least of the group:

20 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State | Seattle Seahawks           38-406-2 TDs

21 Quentin Johnston, TCU | Los Angeles Chargers                 21-190-1 TDs

22 Zay Flowers, Boston College | Baltimore Ravens                58-613-2 TDs

23 Jordan Addison, USC | Minnesota Vikings                           48-647-7 TDs

With other receivers taken later, like PUKA NACUA of the Rams or TANK DELL of the Texans also excelling – Johnston’s 21 catches are 13th among 2023 rookie WRs.

AFC NORTH
 

CLEVELAND

The injury to EDGE MYLES GARRETT does not appear to be long term.  Jake Trotter of ESPN.com:

Cleveland Browns star pass rusher Myles Garrett avoided serious injury to his left shoulder, coach Kevin Stefanski said Monday.

 

Stefanski said that tests Monday revealed that Garrett suffered no structural damage to the shoulder and that he could play this Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams.

 

Garrett suffered the injury in Sunday’s 29-12 loss to the Denver Broncos. Garrett said afterward he felt something pop in his shoulder during the game. He left the locker room with his arm in a sling.

 

“I’ve played through things that should have sidelined me before,” Garrett said Sunday. “I’m going to continue to fight and I’m going to do what’s best for the team and for myself. But we have high hopes for this season and what we want to do. Nothing like this is going to hold us back or me back. Going to find a way to respond.”

 

Garrett leads a defense that ranks No. 2 in the NFL in efficiency. He is tied for second in the league with 13 sacks.

 

The Browns flew from Denver to Los Angeles on Sunday night and will practice there preparing for the game against the Rams.

AFC SOUTH
 

JACKSONVILLE

T CAM ROBINSON has gone to IR with a knee injury – but his season may not be over.  Carlos Sanchez of BlackandTeal.com:

 

The Jacksonville Jaguars lost left tackle Cam Robinson to a knee injury in the 24-21 win over the Houston Texans in Week 12. Tests on Monday revealed that the injury isn’t as serious as originally thought. Per Ian Rapoport of NFL Media, Robinson’s recovery time will be within three to six games, so he could potentially return in time for the playoffs barring a setback.

 

Head coach Doug Pederson told the media Monday that Robinson would undergo testing. He also talked about the void his absence would lead up front but later added that Walker Little is ready to step up at left tackle.

 

“He’s obviously a big part of that offensive line,” Pederson said. “It’s been great after his suspension to get back in there and he does bring a lot of energy and level of physicality to the offensive line. He’s been a really bright spot there. If he can’t go obviously, we’re still good. Just like you saw yesterday, Walker Little bounces back out to left tackle. And really, my hat’s off to him and Ezra [Cleveland] both.”

 

“Extremely loud environment on the road, Walker got very few tackle reps during the week, has to bounce out there and play tackle, and Ezra has to go in and play left guard. Hats off to both of those guys for what they did. But again, if Cam can’t go, it’s a loss but at the same time, we feel comfortable with the guys stepping up,” Pederson said.

 

Robinson returned to the team in Week 5 after serving a four-game suspension for violations to the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy to start the 2023 season. Since the former Alabama standout returned to the lineup, the offensive line has gotten much better.

 

Missing a starter is never ideal but the Jacksonville Jaguars are in a position to overcome Robinson’s absence, regardless of how long it is. Walker Little, a second-round pick in 2021, filled in for him during his suspension and did a pretty good job.

 

When Robinson came back from his suspension, Little moved to left guard. Although he struggled to get a hold of the position at first, he played much better the past two weeks.

 

It will be interesting to see how things played out during Robinson’s absence. While Walker Little provided stability at left guard the past three games, he’s a natural fit at left tackle and probably has a bigger ceiling than Robinson. He’ll enter a contract year in 2024, and if he performs well the rest of the season, the Jaguars will have a hard time justifying not giving him an extension.

AFC EAST
 

NEW ENGLAND

The futility that is New England’s current offense in one tweet:

 

@ZackCoxNESN

NFL teams are 50-2 this season when allowing 10 or fewer points.

 

The Patriots had the only two losses, and they came in their last two games.