The Daily Briefing Tuesday, November 30, 2021

If The Season Ended Today, we must admit we are shocked to find the Washington Football Team not only contending for a Wild Card berth – but currently in the playoffs:

                                     W-L         Div         Conf

Arizona              West     9-2           1           5-2

Green Bay        North    9-3           1           7-2

Tampa Bay       South   8-3           1           5-3

Dallas                East      7-4           1           5-1          

LA Rams           WC1     7-4           2           5-3

San Francisco   WC2     6-5           3           5-4

Washington       WC3     5-6           2           5-2          

Minnesota                      5-6           2           4-3

Atlanta                            5-6          2            2-5

New Orleans                  5-6           3           4-4

Philadelphia                    5-7           3           4-4

Carolina                          5-7           4           3-5

With Washington’s win after losses for Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia and Carolina – the WFT surged to the top of the WC3 chase.

We are now, after 12 weeks, two-thirds through. Going back into the archives, here is how things looked after Week 6. Same four division leaders, Chicago in free fall.

W-L        Div          Conf.

Arizona            West       5-0          1             3-0

Dallas              East        4-1          1             3-1

Tampa Bay     South      4-1           1             2-1

Green Bay      North       4-1           1             2-1      

LA Rams         WC1       4-1           2             3-1

Chicago           WC2       3-2           2             1-1

Carolina           WC3       3-2           2             1-2     

New Orleans                   3-2           3             2-2

Washington                     2-3           2            2-1

Minnesota                       2-3           3             2-1

Philadelphia                    2-3           3             2-2

Seattle                             2-3           3            1-2

San Francisco                 2-3           4             2-3

Atlanta                             2-3           4             1-3

NFC NORTH

GREEN BAY

With the bye week looming, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com has this on the toe of QB AARON RODGERS:

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are expected to use rest — not surgery — to help the quarterback’s fractured pinkie toe heal.

Packers coach Matt LaFleur said Monday that Rodgers is “gathering other opinions, so we’ll see where that goes,” but a source said those opinions are not expected to lead to surgery during this week’s bye.

The Packers (9-3) are off until Dec. 12, when they’ll face the Chicago Bears in a Sunday night prime-time game.

“The most important thing is healing and taking care of my toe,” Rodgers said Sunday when asked about his bye-week plans.

NFL Network reported earlier on Monday that Rodgers does not plan to have surgery.

Rodgers said he fractured the toe during his COVID-19 quarantine earlier this month, and he has played in the past three games since with almost no on-field practice preparations.

The only full-fledged practice he took part in during that stretch was on Nov. 19, two days before the Packers’ loss at Minnesota. He said he received a pain-killing injection at halftime of the game against the Vikings but did not need one to play in Sunday’s win over the Los Angeles Rams.

“The difference is I didn’t have to get shot up again at halftime, so definitely the healing this week not practicing [helped],” Rodgers said after he threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday’s 36-28 win over the Rams.

Demovsky says the Packers are hitting their stride at the bye week:

It’s taken two-thirds of the season, but the Green Bay Packers offense has finally begun to resemble the high-efficiency, nearly unstoppable group from last season.

Oh, what a couple of 30-point games will do for a team’s outlook.

The best part, according to Aaron Rodgers and Co., is that they believe the last two games, including Sunday’s 36-28 win over the Los Angeles Rams at Lambeau Field, should have been even more productive.

“This should’ve been a 40-point game for us, like we felt last week [should have been],” Rodgers said after throwing for 307 yards and two touchdowns. “We’re just not clicking in the red zone.”

On Sunday, they converted only three of their five red zone trips into touchdowns. In last week’s 34-31 loss at the Minnesota Vikings, they were 2-for-3. This from a team that led the NFL and set a franchise record with an 80% touchdown rate inside the 20-yard line last season.

“That’s been kind of our bugaboo this season,” Rodgers said. “We had a couple opportunities with short fields on turnovers and only turned them into six points. That can’t keep going.”

Their 55.3% red zone touchdown rate likely will be one of coach Matt LaFleur’s areas of focus during this week’s bye. But in the last two weeks, the Packers have nearly matched their league-leading scoring average of 31.8 points per game from last season. Even throwing out Rasul Douglas’ interception return for a touchdown against the Rams, the Packers’ offense has accounted for 61 points over the last two games.

And it’s a far cry from where they were sitting at halftime three games ago, when they led the Seattle Seahawks just 3-0 in Rodgers’ return from his one-game COVID-19 absence.

While they have averaged just 23.1 offensive points per game this season to rank tied for 15th in the NFL, their two-week average of 30.5 ranks fifth in the NFL in that span.

 “Every time we don’t score on every drive, I think our guys are disappointed or angry or upset,” LaFleur said. “We’ve got a lot of great players. But this is a tough league, and when you’re going against a tough opponent, realistically you’re not going to score on every possession. So you gotta give them credit, and it’s well-deserved.”

The Rams weren’t the NFL-leading defense they were a year ago, but they had been stingy enough, allowing just 22.7 points per game before Sunday.

That the Packers functioned without three of their top five offensive linemen – David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins and Josh Myers – made it all the more impressive against a defensive front that included Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd.

Although the Packers lost receiver Randall Cobb (four catches for 95 yards and a touchdown) at halftime to a groin injury and won’t get tight end Robert Tonyan (torn ACL) back this season, they appear to have enough offensive firepower down the stretch. Running back Aaron Jones returned from a one-week absence due to a knee injury, and Allen Lazard’s return from a shoulder injury meant the Packers started the game with their full complement of receivers.

Considering that the Packers started with that ugly 38-3 loss to the Saints in Jacksonville, Florida to open the season and now sit at 9-3 with three of their last five games at home, Rodgers was justified when he said, “I’d say that that’s a pretty damned good start.”

“After that ugly loss in Jacksonville to open the season and, obviously, me missing a game with COVID and then all the injuries – Jaire [Alexander] and Davante [Adams] missing a game and Allen [Lazard] and Marquez [Valdes-Scantling] missing a lot of time, Bobby Tonyan being out for the year, Elgton Jenkins, Dave [Bakhtiari], Josh Myers, Z [Za’Darius Smith] – it’s been a lot of adversity, for sure,” Rodgers said.

MINNESOTA

Coach Mike Zimmer pushes back on the reported severity of RB DALVIN COOK’s shoulder injury.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

A report on Monday said that Vikings running back Dalvin Cook was diagnosed with a torn labrum and a dislocated shoulder after getting hurt in Sunday’s loss to the 49ers, but Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer said that was inaccurate later in the day.

Zimmer said “no” when asked if Cook tore his labrum during his press conference and that he was “not going to say” whether Cook dislocated it. Zimmer was also asked if Cook has a chance of playing against the Lions this week.

 “I don’t know. It’s day-to-day. That’s what they’re telling me,” Zimmer said, via Chris Tomasson of the Pioneer Press.

That’s a more promising outlook than the multiple week absence that was part of the report about the nature of the injury, but Zimmer’s initial comments about injuries and reality haven’t always lined up in the past. He repeatedly called a neck injury defensive end Danielle Hunter suffered in training camp last year a tweak and Hunter wound up missing the entire season.

The Vikings will be hoping for a better outcome for Cook after their playoff hopes took a blow on Sunday.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Long after Thursday’s game in Dallas was over DT TRYSTEN HILL picked up a 2-game suspension. Grant Gordon of NFL.com:

Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle Trysten Hill has been suspended two games without pay by the NFL for his postgame punch in an altercation with Las Vegas Raiders offensive lineman John Simpson, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport and NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported Monday.

Hill’s suspension comes following a review by the league of all video from the game. NFL Vice President of Football Operations Jon Runyan issued the suspension, saying it was an open-handed punch to Simpson’s facemask, per Rapoport and Pelissero.

Following the Raiders’ 36-33 overtime win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day, Hill struck Simpson at midfield amid a gathering of players. The strike knocked Simpson’s helmet from his head and onto the turf.

The 23-year-old Hill is a 2019 second-round pick of the Cowboys who had four tackles on Thursday and has played in three games this season with eight tackles. Over three seasons, Hill has played in 15 games with five starts.

Hill, provided he does not appeal the suspension, is now in line to miss the Cowboys’ Week 13 Thursday night game against the host New Orleans Saints and the team’s Week 14 road game at Washington.

NFC SOUTH

NEW ORLEANS

Whatever has been going on with QB TAYSOM HILL’s health, it now looks like he will be starting on Thursday against the Cowboys.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

Having lost four games in a row to fall to 5-6, the Saints are apparently shaking things up at quarterback.

According to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport, Taysom Hill has been taking first-team reps over Trevor Siemian at practice this week in preparation for Thursday’s game against the Cowboys.

Siemain took over at quarterback when Jameis Winston tore his ACL in the Week Eight win over the Buccaneers. But New Orleans has lost every game since, with the offense often getting off to slow starts. Siemian and the rest of the unit put up just six points in the team’s Thanksgiving loss to Buffalo.

Siemian has completed 57 percent of his passes for 1,083 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s also lost a fumble.

Hill has appeared in seven games this season, but hasn’t been on the field since the Week 10 loss to Tennessee. He is currently going through a foot injury that has relegated him to emergency backup QB in the last two weeks.

The jack-of-all-trades has 104 yards on 20 carries with three touchdowns, four receptions for 52 yards, and is 7-of-8 passing for 56 yards with an interception this season.

Last year, Hill filled in for Drew Brees for four games, amassing a 3-1 record as a starter. Hill completed 72 percent of his passes for 834 yards with four touchdowns and two picks in those games while rushing for 209 yards with four touchdowns. He also fumbled six times, losing three of them.

According to Rapoport, Hill will have to get through the week healthy. But New Orleans is giving him every opportunity to start.

The Saints will release their first injury report later on Monday.

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

There is a report that Notre Dame is targeting another NFL coach (see JACKSONVILLE) besides Urban Meyer.

@elikasadeghi

Notre Dame has targeted Cardinals’ HC Kliff Kingsbury as one of the potential replacements for Brian Kelly, league sources tell ESPN.

Kingsbury has one year remaining on his contract.

Of course, Dennis Dodd of CBSSports.com doesn’t have Kingsbury on his list:

The turbulent coaching carousel took another spin Monday night as LSU hired Brian Kelly away from Notre Dame. Kelly, who just became the all-time winningest coach in Fighting Irish history this season, leaves Notre Dame with a gaping leadership hole after 12 years at the helm.

Look for Irish defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman to become the interim coach in these turbulent times. Think of it as an audition because the clear No. 1 candidate now has to be Iowa State’s Matt Campbell.

Unlike Cincinnati’s Luke Fickell, Campbell does not face the complication of the upcoming College Football Playoff. Campbell’s season is over, except for a minor bowl game. Campbell has desired the Notre Dame job for a while, according to sources. This is also an ideal time to leave Iowa State considering how hard it is to maintain success there.

Kelly has gone 54-9 at Notre Dame over the last five seasons since overhauling his staff before the 2017 campaign. The next coach will inherit a program that is in the midst of producing its best recruiting class in years. The only question is who that next coach will be.

Let’s take a look at the top candidates to replace Kelly at Notre Dame.

Matt Campbell, Iowa State coach: Before the season, it was known Campbell would consider leaving for only two jobs: Ohio State or Notre Dame. Ohio State isn’t open. Notre Dame just opened. The question is whether the job falls to him. Freeman is on staff. Fickell doesn’t seem like he’s leaving. Veteran NFL Bill Polian has been advocating for Campbell. His son, Brian, is currently Notre Dame’s special teams coach under Kelly.

Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame defensive coordinator: Maybe the easiest route for the Irish in these desperate times. Fickell would be leaving an undefeated team in the thick of the playoff race. Bob Stoops has a job (Fox analyst, Oklahoma interim coach). Freeman has never been a head coach, but he is Notre Dame’s best shot at continuity right now. A word of warning: The last time ND promoted from within its ranks was when Bob Davie who followed Lou Holtz in 1997. Davie lasted five seasons after going 35-25. The last time Notre Dame hired a coach without head coaching experience was Charlie Weis in 2005. Weis lasted five seasons after going 35-27.

Luke Fickell, Cincinnati coach: The likelihood of Fickell leaving the Bearcats for any job has to be minimal right now. Cincinnati is five days away from clinching a playoff spot. Unlike Kelly, it would be far-fetched to believe he would leave Cincinnati in the middle of a playoff race. Fickell does have the pedigree, though, having been an Ohio and Midwest guy for his entire career.

Bob Stoops, Fox analyst and Oklahoma interim coach: When he was coaching, Stoops’ name would come up whenever Notre Dame opened. He never took it then, but would he take it now? The biggest obstacle is that he’s committed to guide OU through Lincoln Riley’s absence. That’s the priority. Stoops is 61 but looks 51. Don’t know if that would make any difference.

Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern coach: Easily the best coach in Northwestern history, if Fitzgerald is ever considering leaving the Wildcats, Notre Dame presents an interesting opportunity. Given Fitzgerald has succeeded despite the constraints of coaching at a private school with high academic standards, he could walk into the Irish job knowing what it takes to win. It would be tough to pry a Northwestern man from his alma mater given Fitzgerald reportedly spurned NFL interest in the past, but the potential to actually compete for a national championship and lead one of the top teams in college football could be a draw. An important consideration: Fitzgerald just signed a 10-year contract with Northwestern in January.

The DB likes all five of these guys as fits at ND better than Kingsbury.

SAN FRANCISCO

In the short term, the 49ers will have to continue their surge without WR DEEBO SAMUEL. Jordan Dajani of CBSSports.com:

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel has virtually switched to running back over the past few weeks, and he had another monster game against the Minnesota Vikings, rushing six times for 66 yards and two touchdowns. He exited early with a groin injury, however, one that required an MRI to determine how serious the issue was.

The MRI results yielded good news, as 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters on Monday that Samuel will miss just one to two weeks with a groin strain, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Samuel was walking around after suffering the injury and told reporters following the 34-26 victory that he was “not too concerned” about the issue, per David Lombardi of The Athletic.

The former second-round pick out of South Carolina is having a career year, as he reached 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career in 11 games to go along with five receiving touchdowns. With some of the injuries the 49ers have at running back, Samuel has been playing a bit in the backfield recently, and has rushed 19 times for 181 yards and four touchdowns over the last three games.

The 6-5 49ers find themselves on a three-game win streak, and take on the rival Seahawks in Seattle next week. If Samuel were to miss two games due to the injury, he would miss San Francisco’s meeting with the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14 as well. 

SEATTLE

Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com on the state of the Seahawks and QB RUSSELL WILSON after Monday night’s loss:

Seattle’s Russell Wilson rushed back from finger surgery. The Seahawks have looked bad on offense for most of his first three games back, and after another loss that has ended any realistic shot to make the playoffs, it’s worth wondering if Wilson will finish the season.

Wilson has often looked like a shell of himself since coming back from finger surgery. He is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but over the past three weeks he has struggled to make routine throws.

On Monday night, the Seahawks got very little going on offense against the Washington Football Team for 58 minutes. They scored with 15 seconds left but Wilson threw an interception to Kendall Fuller on the two-point conversion and Seattle lost 17-15. Seattle seemed to recover an onside kick but had an illegal formation on the kick that was penalized.

Had the Seahawks played better on offense before the final minutes, it might not have mattered. Maybe the Seahawks’ season wouldn’t be as good as dead after another loss.

Russell Wilson struggles again

Wilson’s issues throwing post-surgery is affecting the whole offense. DK Metcalf is one of the best receivers in the NFL, a player who can turn a game on any play. On Monday night he didn’t have a catch until 1:02 remained. He had 57 combined yards in the Seahawks’ two games before Monday. Even a great talent like Metcalf can’t stay afloat with Wilson playing as poorly as he is.

Seattle’s offensive implosion has been ongoing. It started when Geno Smith was replacing Wilson, then it remained bad when Wilson returned. Monday night was awful until the final two minutes. The Seahawks went three-and-out on five straight possessions. Wilson hit a wide-open Tyler Lockett for a 55-yard gain in the first quarter and that was most of Seattle’s offense until the final drive.

With a little more than two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter on Monday night, the Seahawks had five first downs. They had one first down in the first 27 minutes of the second half. You’d never expect that from a team with Wilson at quarterback, but the guy wearing No. 3 for Seattle these past few weeks looks nothing like Wilson. Maybe the final drive is a sign he’s coming back, but it would be too late for the Seahawks anyway.

Washington does enough to win

Despite the offensive issues, Seattle still had a chance to win in the fourth quarter. A weird two-point play in the second quarter, when Seahawks defensive lineman Rasheem Green blocked an extra point and then scooped it and scored, was a big help. Seattle needed to generate points any way it could.

Washington didn’t do much, but it didn’t have to do too much. Antonio Gibson looked very good, rushing for 100 yards. J.D. McKissic scored a pair of touchdowns. And Washington’s defense had something to do with Wilson and Seattle’s offense looking so bad. Washington, at 5-6, would technically be in the playoffs if the season ended Monday according to ESPN’s broadcast.

With a little more than two minutes left, Washington had to go for it on fourth-and-goal because its kicker Joey Slye injured himself on the Green runback. Logan Thomas appeared to have a touchdown but replay review showed the ball hit the ground and it was incomplete. Seattle had a shot to at least tie the game with a long scoring drive. Wilson finally hit some throws. He got a touchdown pass to Geoff Swaim to pull the Seahawks within two points. But the two-point conversion was covered well and Wilson was picked off.

The Seahawks are 3-8 after that ugly loss. Theoretically they could win out and be in the wild-card mix, but that’s a long shot. It might not make a lot of sense for Seattle to keep playing a compromised Wilson in a lost season. He’s done too much for the franchise to play at far less than 100 percent.

There will be plenty of speculation over what will happen with Wilson next offseason. What should happen the rest of this season is a conversation the Seahawks might be having soon.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com on the recent surge of interceptions from QB LAMAR JACKSON:

The bigger concern for Jackson, as it might be for Tannehill and Stafford, is a sudden rash of interceptions. The 24-year-old quarterback has thrown nine interceptions over his past five games. Jackson threw just six interceptions in 15 games during his MVP season in 2019 and nine in 15 games for the Ravens last season, so this is out of character. Jackson had a 1.9% interception rate before 2021 and is at 3.5% after the Browns game.

There’s not one single problem driving the sudden interception glut. Jackson has been picked by two linebackers stepping in front of throws, which is 100% his fault. Part of it is definitely bad luck, as he has been victimized by some of the most spectacular picks of the season. The Browns had two on Sunday night; one where the ball bounced off a Ravens player and then off another Browns defender into the hands of Cleveland cornerback Denzel Ward, and another where an underthrown pass to Mark Andrews bounced off of the star tight end and into the arms of safety John Johnson III, who appeared to catch the ball almost by accident. Those wild picks aren’t likely to continue.

The underthrown deep pass does concern me, though, as does the play where Andrews was open on a stick route and Jackson simply threw to a different spot. Jackson did miss Week 11 with that non-COVID illness, and after the Browns game, the Ravens passer admitted that he felt “weak” during the contest. As Stephania Bell noted yesterday, quarterbacks typically struggle to maintain their prior level of play for a week or two after missing a game because of illness. Jackson’s four-interception game isn’t typical by any stretch of the imagination, but it might be partially explained by the likelihood that he is still recovering from whatever he was dealing with the prior week. Unless the illness lingers, or Jackson’s dealing with another undisclosed injury, I would expect him to get back to being the guy we saw over the first month of the year by the end of the season.

PITTSBURGH

EDGE T.J. WATT hits COVID jail.  Chris Adamski of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:

Another week, another high-profile Pittsburgh Steelers player added to the NFL’s covid list.

On Monday, it was All-Pro outside linebacker T.J. Watt. The team announced the move in a 13-word release.

By policy, the team does not reveal why its players are added to the covid list, but it is presumed Watt is vaccinated. If so, this would indicate a positive test for the coronavirus. If true, he can only re-join the team after two consecutive days of negative tests and 48 consecutive hours of being symptom-free.

After the Steelers emerged from the first half of the season as the only team without a player on the covid list, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger tested positive the day before the Nov. 14 tie with the Detroit Lions. He returned a week later, just in time to start the next game at the Los Angeles Chargers — but the Steelers were without All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick for that one.

Receiver/returner Ray-Ray McCloud was the only player out because of covid for this past Sunday’s blowout loss at the Cincinnati Bengals.

Watt has missed two full games and parts of two others this season because of injuries to his groin, hip and knee. Watt returned to the lineup in Cincinnati but was limited to a solo tackle, an assist and no quarterback hits during the 41-10 defeat.

Watt signed a four-year, $112 million contract in the days before the regular season began.

Without him, the Steelers have Taco Charlton and Derrek Tuszka — two players who were cut by teams at the end of training camp and were then added to the Steelers’ practice squad — on the active roster at outside linebacker after starter Alex Highsmith. The team traded veteran outside linebacker Melvin Ingram to the Kansas City Chiefs for a sixth-round pick four weeks ago.

Despite the time missed because of injury and the lackluster game in Cincinnati, Watt remains second in the NFL with 12½ sacks.

AFC SOUTH

JACKSONVILLE

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com is among the many who are connecting the Notre Dame dots to Urban Meyer.

As the annual game of college-coaching musical chairs continues, reports have emerged that LSU wants to hire long-time Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly. If that happens, then obviously there would be a vacancy in South Bend.

Would that be the moment Urban Meyer makes his move?

Meyer has been linked to the Fighting Irish for years. His wife once said that Notre Dame was one of his “dream jobs.” Kelly arrived in 2010, holding the position for over a decade. If he leaves, would the Irish turn to Meyer?

First, they’d have to want Meyer. The off-field indiscretions from earlier this year could become a factor. Second, Meyer would have to want the job. Third, the Jaguars would have to be willing to let Meyer go. Unless he negotiated a provision that allows him to leave for the college game whenever he wants (it’s believed that Nick Saban had such a clause in his contract with the Dolphins), Meyer would need the Jaguars to release him from his contract.

And maybe they would. It would allow owner Shad Khan to escape the balance of Meyer’s contract, without a buyout.

Meyer, despite his struggles this year in the NFL, continues to be one of the most successful college coaches of all time. If Notre Dame comes calling, could that be enough to get him back to the college level? Time, as always, will tell.

While Meyer has called Notre Dame his dream job, he took more money and greater leeway in player recruitment when the Irish and the University of Florida wanted his services in 2005.

TENNESSEE

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com analyzes the struggles of QB RYAN TANNEHILL – a lot of which he lays on the lack of a supporting cast:

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

This one seems easier, right? Before the year, I ranked the Titans third on my list of the best offensive weapon groupings in football. When you can give the ball to Derrick Henry or throw it to A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, your life is going to be easier. On Sunday, the Titans did not have any of those superstars. D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard, who carried the ball a combined 31 times during Sunday’s loss to the Patriots, weren’t even on an active roster when the 2021 season began. The only Titans players to catch more than one pass were Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Cody Hollister, both undrafted free agents who have bounced between the Titans’ active roster and their practice squad over the past couple of years.

Naturally, Tannehill isn’t going to have the same sort of success with replacement-level players at skill position spots, but that alone doesn’t explain the offensive struggles. The differences in terms of catch rate and yards after catch aren’t significant over the past four games without Henry in the fold, with a dip of about 1.8% in CPOE and half a yard per pass attempt in yards after catch over expectation, but the Titans made up for that on Sunday with a number of big runs on the ground.

Tennessee had seven plays of 30 yards or more over the first eight games of the year, but even after Henry has gone down injured, the Titans have actually managed to generate five explosives over the ensuing four contests, including two against the Patriots. One was a 68-yard run Hilliard took to the house. The other was a 30-yard run by Foreman, which ended with the former Texans back fumbling and the Patriots recovering.

More than the lack of firepower, turnovers have doomed the Titans over the past two weeks. Tennessee was able to get by without Henry over the first two games of his absence by turning the ball over just once and posting a turnover margin of plus-2, but that has disappeared over the past two games. The Titans have turned the ball over nine times in losses to the Texans and Patriots without forcing a single takeaway themselves. That’s a staggering amount for an offense which turned the ball over only 12 times all season during the 2020 campaign.

If anything, the Titans are lucky to not have more. They have fumbled an unconscionable nine times over the past two weeks, recovering five of those possible giveaways. This is a place where they clearly miss Henry, who has fumbled only once every 136 touches as a pro. The Titans have fumbled about once every 16 plays over the past two weeks, with four different backs — Hilliard, Foreman, fullback Khari Blasingame and since-released legend Adrian Peterson — spilling the ball. Tannehill has also been strip-sacked twice.

The Titans’ QB also has to bear some of the blame. He has thrown five interceptions, and while you could excuse him for throwing picks against the Patriots’ defense, four of those five turnovers came against the Texans. You could maybe chalk the final pick against Houston to poor receivers, but Tannehill has made some poor decisions throwing to the middle of the field and been turned over by defenders who should have been in his range of vision. One interception came when the Titans didn’t adjust a protection to some late pressure and Houston got home with a free rusher.

Two of those interceptions have come in the red zone, with a third starting just outside and ending at the 1-yard line. For a team that dominated inside the red zone in 2019 and 2020, the Titans realistically can’t afford to give away opportunities to score points. Their red zone performance had already declined some this year before Henry went down injured, so we can’t really pin their decline on the running back’s absence. But the Titans have as many turnovers in the red zone over the past two weeks as they did over the entirety of 2020.

If one part of the offensive formula for the Titans was scoring touchdowns in the red zone, the other was creating big plays using play-action. Henry’s departure was a useful test of the research suggesting that teams don’t need to establish the run or have a great back to succeed with play-action. Opponents haven’t been dropping more defenders into coverage without the star rusher — they played two-deep about 37% of the time with Tannehill and Henry in the lineup and have been at about 35% over Henry’s four-game absence — but they’ve fared much better against play-fakes:

The Titans have run play-action less frequently since the Henry injury and been much less successful when doing so. After creating four explosive plays of 30-plus yards off it during the first eight weeks of the year, the Titans haven’t generated a single explosive with a play-fake since Henry went down. Some of this likely has to do with the absences of Brown and Jones for part of that run, but it’s clear that the Titans have needed to change what they do in the passing game from what worked so well before the past month.

As is the case with Stafford, I wouldn’t just toss Tannehill aside. The Titans are going to look better on offense when he is throwing to two superstar wideouts as opposed to guys like Hollister and Westbrook-Ikhine. The turnovers might be more of a problem than they were in the past, but nobody in the NFL turns the ball over four times per week on a regular basis. The Titans get a much-needed bye to settle down this week and a home game against the Jaguars the following Sunday before their schedule picks up again to end the season. With the Colts losing to the Bucs and Tennessee holding the head-to-head tiebreaker, Mike Vrabel’s team still has a 97.5% chance of winning the AFC South, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. There’s no need to panic for the Titans.

Also like the Rams, though, the Titans came into the year with Super Bowl aspirations. With Henry not expected to return this season, it’s clear that they have to try to find a different way to win football games from here on out. The formula they’ve run out over the past two weeks wouldn’t work for any team, but the Titans need to find a reliable offensive identity without their star running back. Tannehill has had to shoulder the smallest workload of any quarterback in football with Henry in the fold; now, regardless of whom he has at receiver, he needs to be successful as the focal point of Tennessee’s march toward an AFC title.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

The Dolphins appear to have made a shrewd pick at #8 with rusher JAELEN PHILLIPS.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Dolphins used the 18th overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft on pass rusher Jaelan Phillips, and they’re getting exactly what they expected.

Phillips had three sacks on Sunday against the Panthers, and coach Brian Flores said Phillips has continued to improve throughout his rookie season.

“I think he’s just getting better every week,” Flores said, via the Palm Beach Post. “I think for a lot of guys on this team, we just keep working, keep trying to improve and get better every day. If you do that, we’re starting to see some of the fruits of that work. Jaelan’s no different. He’s in here early, he says late, he does a good job in meetings, walk-throughs, practice.”

Phillips sacked Cam Newton twice and P.J. Walker once as the Dolphins shut down both of the Panthers’ quarterbacks. He also had a sack last week, and half a sack in each of the two games before that. Phillips got off to a somewhat slow start this season, but he’s developing into an outstanding pass rusher, and there’s plenty of reason to think he’s going to keep getting better.

THIS AND THAT

DANE BRUGLER’S MOCK DRAFT

Dane Brugler of The Athletic has his first Mock Draft, using a version of the current order that has this oddity late in the top 10:

4. New York Jets (from Seattle)

5. New York Jets

6. New York Giants

7. New York Giants (from Chicago)

8. Philadelphia Eagles

9. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami)

Philadelphia also has #14 at the moment (from Indianapolis) and that is close to getting locked in as Wentz keeps playing.

Here is Brugler’s draft:

I wouldn’t call the 2022 NFL Draft a bad draft.

There are plenty of first-round-caliber players, and the depth at certain positions will stretch well into Day 3 on draft weekend. However, something that has been echoed by evaluators around the NFL is the lack of elite-level talent at the top. Most drafts don’t have 10 prospects considered no-brainers for the top-10 picks, but this year’s class doesn’t have more than one or two, according to feedback from some NFL scouts.

Maybe hindsight will prove that opinion to be silly. Maybe there is a T.J. Watt or Aaron Donald or Patrick Mahomes in this class — players who weren’t considered slam-dunk top-10 picks pre-draft but obviously proved that assessment wrong in retrospect.

Despite the perceived lack of top-tier talent, 10 players must go in the top 10, starting with an interesting decision for the Detroit Lions, who currently own the No. 1 overall pick. The volatility at the top of draft boards from team to team will be the story of the 2022 NFL Draft.

The next five months will be a fun, fascinating process.

(Notes: The draft order is based on current standings. An asterisk represents draft-eligible underclassmen who haven’t officially declared for the draft.)

1. Detroit Lions — Aidan Hutchinson, edge, Michigan

The winless Lions need a long-term answer at quarterback, weapons at wide receiver and help at every level of the defense. This draft class doesn’t have a quarterback or pass-catching option worthy of a top-five pick, but there are several defensive players worth considering at No. 1. While Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux is the favorite to be drafted first, Hutchinson, who grew up just outside of Detroit, checks every box for the Lions as they rebuild the roster.

Athleticism? Hutchinson was No. 2 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List for a reason and will test well at the combine. Production? Hutchinson set the Michigan single-season sack record (13 sacks and counting) and currently ranks No. 2 in college football with 68 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. Intangibles? This is what truly sets Hutchinson apart. His competitive makeup is rare and raises the level of his teammates. If you included the players from this past April’s draft in the 2022 class, Hutchinson might not be drafted in the top 10. But he embodies a lot of the traits that head coach Dan Campbell craves and it wouldn’t be a surprise if a team like Detroit settles on Hutchinson at the top of its board.

2. Houston Texans — Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, Oregon*

Although he isn’t in the same prospect tier as Myles Garrett, Chase Young or the Bosa brothers, Thibodeaux is a disruptive pass rusher due to his upfield burst and quick feet. He is a strong run defender and should continue to improve as a pass rusher as his rush moves evolve. Thibodeaux reminds me of a stronger, longer version of Harold Landry. The Texans will also be in the quarterback market this off-season, but hard to see them drafting one this early.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars — Evan Neal, OT, Alabama*

Surrounding Trevor Lawrence with the support system to flourish should be priority No. 1 for Jaguars. Left tackle Cam Robinson is currently playing on the franchise tag, and neither Jawaan Taylor nor Walker Little are established starters. Neal has played at a high level at three different positions (right guard, right tackle, left tackle) in his three seasons in Tuscaloosa and offers a unique blend of size, strength and flexibility.

4. New York Jets (from Seattle) — Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU*

With a defense that ranks last in the NFL and an offensive line that still has weak spots, the Jets need plenty of help. With two picks in the top five, the Jets are in a position to address both areas. After an All-American freshman season and solid sophomore year, Stingley played in only three games in 2021 before foot surgery put him on the shelf. The interviews and medicals are the unknown aspects of his projection right now, but his talent warrants this pick.

5. New York Jets — Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State*

The Jets have addressed the offensive line in the first round in each of Joe Douglas’ first two drafts as general manager, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he keeps the streak going. Similar in ways to a “smaller” version of Mekhi Becton, Ekwonu is a freakishly explosive blocker for his size (6-foot-4, 322 pounds) with the raw power and movement skills to execute outside zone with ease. He can play tackle or guard interchangeably and would give the Jets a long-term answer at right tackle.

6. New York Giants — Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

The Giants saw first-hand what a versatile linebacker with explosive traits can do for your defense when they met the division-rival Dallas Cowboys with rookie stud Micah Parsons. Lloyd isn’t quite on Parsons’ level, but his blend of instincts and speed helps him impact the game in multiple ways. Linebacker might not be the top need for the Giants, but adding defensive playmakers is never a bad idea.

7. New York Giants (from Chicago) — Tyler Linderbaum, OC, Iowa*

Since the merger in 1970 only once has a center been drafted in the top 10 — and that is only if you include Pro Football Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews, who was drafted as an “interior blocker” ninth overall in 1983. But in this class, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Linderbaum this high, especially to a team like the Giants who need to add tough, athletic blockers in the trenches.

8. Philadelphia Eagles — Kyle Hamilton, DS, Notre Dame*

Based on talent, Hamilton is one of the best this draft class has to offer. But his draft projection is going to be interesting because not every team will value his hybrid skill set. With his athletic range and diagnose skills, Hamilton frustrates quarterbacks because of the different ways he impacts the game. He has missed the second half of Notre Dame’s season due to a minor knee injury, so the medical evaluations will be important.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami) — George Karlaftis, edge, Purdue*

With Derek Barnett likely headed elsewhere in free agency and Brandon Graham coming off an injury (and about to turn 34), the Eagles will be looking for pass rusher help this offseason. Karlaftis might not have elite length or twitch, but his persistent power and skilled hand work allow him to be disruptive.

10. Carolina Panthers — Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

Flash back six years ago: Pickett, then a high school junior, committed to play quarterback at Temple for head coach Matt Rhule. Pickett re-opened his recruitment once bigger programs showed interest and chose Pitt, but this time around, Rhule might decide Pickett’s next destination. To fix its hole at quarterback, Carolina has unsuccessfully tried the former first-round pick route with Teddy Bridgewater in 2020 and Sam Darnold and Cam Newton this season. Unless they lure Aaron Rodgers to Charlotte this offseason, using a first-round pick of their own on a promising quarterback like Pickett might be the Panthers’ best option.

11. Atlanta Falcons — Travon Walker, edge, Georgia*

The Falcons need to get better on the defensive line, and one of the possible answers is right down the road. Walker, who grew up just south of Atlanta, has remarkable fluidity for a 275-pound athlete and has been one of the Bulldogs’ most valuable defenders this season. He is long and powerful to set a hard edge and shows the bully strength and quickness to be disruptive as a pass rusher. Falcons’ defensive coordinator Dean Pees values versatility up front and Walker has the skill set to line up at multiple positions.

12. Minnesota Vikings — Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson*

With Patrick Peterson and Bashaud Breeland playing on one-year deals, the Vikings could be in the market for a starting cornerback. Booth has is a long athlete with controlled hip movement and the ability to find the football. His tape from this past weekend against South Carolina will get NFL teams excited.

13. New Orleans Saints — Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State*

The first wide receiver off the board in this mock, Wilson has only average size (6-0, 186), but his body control is special, and his athletic instincts help him separate before and after the catch. He would be an immediate weapon for whoever is lining up at quarterback in New Orleans next season. Ohio State has basically been a minor-league feeder system for the Saints, and that continues in this scenario.

14. Philadelphia (from Indianapolis) — Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia*

I know, I know, the Eagles don’t draft linebackers in the first round (or at least they haven’t since 1979). But maybe Jonathan Vilma 2.0 can change their minds. Dean is an athletic pursuit player and blitzer with excellent diagnose skills to key and attack. His football character will make him an immediate fit wherever he is drafted in April.

15. Cleveland Browns — David Ojabo, edge, Michigan*

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a wide receiver like Treylon Burks or Chris Olave here, but Ojabo might be too enticing to pass up for Cleveland. The Nigerian and Scotland native is remarkably disruptive for a player who is still a football novice. Ideally, the organization would like to bring back Jadeveon Clowney, which would give Ojabo a chance to be a sub-package rusher as a rookie as he realizes his sky-high potential.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers — Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina*

If this is Ben Roethlisberger’s final season in Pittsburgh, will the Steelers look towards the draft? Or add a free agent to compete with Mason Rudolph in the short term? General manager Kevin Colbert has traveled to see Howell multiple times this fall, and he might be their top option available at this point in the draft. In addition to his arm strength and accuracy, Howell gives the Steelers much-needed athleticism at the quarterback position.

17. Denver Broncos — Jordan Davis, NT, Georgia

A dominant run defender, Davis is a massive human (6-6, 360 pounds) with range (might run sub-5.00 seconds in the 40-yard dash) and the upper-body power to stack the point of attack, toss blockers and find the football. He has a low ceiling as a pass rusher but is able to create push by bullying interior blockers into the pocket.

18. Las Vegas Raiders — Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

Finding an upgrade at right tackle needs to be a top priority for the Raiders this offseason. As long as they plan to keep Alex Leatherwood at guard, general manager Mike Mayock might look to find their new right tackle in the draft. Penning, who has experience at left and right tackle, is a “small school” prospect, but he has the traits to start in the NFL next season. At 6-7 and 329 pounds, he has impressive movement skills, length (35-inch arms) and competitive play style.

19. Washington Football Team – Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss*

Taylor Heinicke has been a great story, but enough for Washington to bypass drafting a quarterback? Probably not if they view someone like Corral as the long-term answer. He doesn’t have ideal size, and his post-snap processing is still in the development phase, but Corral is an instinctive athlete with NFL-level arm talent and playmaking skills. General manager Martin Mayhew spent time in Oxford this month to see Corral, who would be a comfortable fit with Scott Turner’s style of play-calling.

20. Los Angeles Chargers — Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida*

Even with positive play from rookie Asante Samuel Jr., the Chargers’ cornerback depth chart will need some work this offseason. Although you wish his tape showed more plays on the football, Elam has the intriguing traits that should land him in Round 1.

21. Miami Dolphins (from San Francisco) — Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State*

It feels like the offensive line has been a trouble area for the Dolphins since the Dan Marino era. Cross is still very young and needs to continue and get stronger and cut down on the penalties, but his movement patterns and handwork are outstanding foundation traits.

22. Buffalo Bills — Kenyon Green, OT/G, Texas A&M*

Green to Buffalo is one of my favorite team-prospect fits in this mock draft because of his versatility to interchangeably play guard or tackle. He plays with above-average balance before and after contact with the functional strength to sustain his blocks. His position flexibility gives the Bills starter-quality depth across the offensive line.

23. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles) — Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas*

The Lions’ most productive wide receiver is Kalif Raymond, who currently ranks 79th in the NFL in receiving yards. Burks is a unique talent who creates mismatches with his combination of size and athleticism. Detroit could address quarterback here with Liberty’s Malik Willis or Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder if it evaluates either as a worthy long-term option.

24. Cincinnati Bengals — Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati*

If the Bengals look to bolster their cornerback depth chart in the draft, they will have a few options in their own back yard. Gardner is a tall, long athlete who can flip his hips and stay on top of routes. Shifty route-runners will give him trouble at times, but he has been a lockdown player in college with zero touchdowns allowed on his watch.

25. Dallas Cowboys — Cameron Thomas, edge, San Diego State*

The Cowboys drafted three front-seven defenders in the top 100 last season and might be in the market for more pass rush in next year’s first round. Whether lined up inside or outside, Thomas has been nearly unblockable this season for the Aztecs, currently leading college football with 72 pressures (just ahead of Michigan’s Hutchinson and Alabama’s Will Anderson). His lateral quickness, nose for the football and non-stop hustle are traits that will translate to the NFL.

26. Kansas City Chiefs — Drake London, WR, USC*

The Chiefs don’t lack for speed at wide receiver, but could use more size on the outside. A former basketball player at USC, London plays like a power forward with his ability to high-point and play above the rim. He is fluid with his ball adjustments to snatch and get upfield, showing the toughness to finish through contact and break tackles.

27. Tennessee Titans — Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama*

One of the most explosive weapons this draft has to offer, Williams has blazing route speed with the ability to separate due to his 90-degree cuts that don’t require a gear down. His athleticism would add another dimension to the Titans’ offense.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — DeMarvin Leal, DL, Texas A&M*

A toolsy, productive player, Leal, who currently leads the Aggies with 12.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks, has true inside-outside versatility on the defensive line. He is stout vs. the run with his physical hands and rushes with impressive body control for a 290-pounder. Although he needs to be more consistent, Leal’s highlights and traits give off Jonathan Allen vibes.

29. New England Patriots — Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

Wide receiver isn’t a glaring need for the Patriots, especially considering Bill Belichick has only drafted one wide receiver in the first round since he became New England’s head coach in 2000. But Olave is the type of prospect who can change plans if he is available. A smooth athlete, Olave is already on an NFL level with his route transitions and catch-point skills.

30. Green Bay Packers — Darian Kinnard, OT/G, Kentucky

The Packers’ offensive line is holding up well considering they are without several injured starters. But there is no such thing as too much depth, and Kinnard will eventually break into the starting lineup, either at tackle or guard.

31. Baltimore Ravens — Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota

Would Baltimore draft a Gopher in back-to-back first rounds? It’s possible if the Ravens target an offensive tackle late — for a humongous human, as Faalele is a verified 6-foot-8 and 379 pounds with 35-inch arms and 11-inch hands. He is relatively new to football and is still learning how to get the most out of his unique skills, but he moves surprisingly well for his size and his anvil hands thump defenders into tomorrow.

32. Arizona Cardinals — Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn

McCreary has average size (6-0, 187) with sub-30 inch arms, but he is a quick-twitch athlete who can line up inside or outside and play sticky coverage. He has produced several impressive tapes this season (Penn State, Arkansas, Alabama) that could push him into the first round.

The starting left tackle for the Bulldogs, Salyer is more of a guard than a tackle with his physical hands and mobility, but he offers the versatility to provide depth at multiple spots on the offensive line.