AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
| Entering Week 9, the NFC had a 21-16 advantage in the season series with the AFC (expanded from 64 games to 80 by the creation of The 17th Game).
Then, this week, culminated by Pittsburgh over Chicago on Monday Night, the AFC won 7 of a whopping 8 interconference games to take a 23-22 lead. The Giants, of all people, were the only NFC team to win, beating Vegas.
Although the matchups are not exclusively divisional anymore, with the 17th Game, the AFC West is 10-3 in interconference play, primarily against the NFC East (see Denver over Dallas and LAC over Philly last week, but NYG over LV).
The NFC West is 8-3, mainly against the AFC South.
The AFC North is 8-4, primarily against the NFC North
The NFC South is 7-2, with the AFC East the most common foe.
With that, on to If The Season Ended Today –
In the AFC – a few weeks ago, the divisions three biggest brands in recent years, New England, Kansas City and Pittsburgh were clearly out of the playoffs. Now the Steelers and Patriots are in and the Chiefs are out. Note that KC is 4-0 against the NFC with the Cowboys coming up in Week 11.
The Chargers are back on top in the AFC West, the Bengals have fallen out of the playoffs and 12 teams are still in or within a game of the line.
W-L Div Conf
Tennessee South 7-2 1 5-1
Baltimore North 6-2 1 4-2
LA Chargers West 5-3 1 3-2
Buffalo East 5-3 1 4-3
Las Vegas WC1 5-3 2 4-1
Pittsburgh WC2 5-3 2 3-2
New England WC3 5-4 2 4-1
Kansas City 5-4 3 1-4
Cleveland 5-4 3 3-3
Cincinnati 5-4 4 3-2
Denver 5-4 4 2-4
Indianapolis 4-5 2 3-3
In the NFC
Arizona West 8-1 1 4-1
Green Bay North 7-2 1 5-1
Tampa Bay South 6-2 1 4-2
Dallas East 6-2 1 4-1
LA Rams WC1 7-2 2 5-1
New Orleans WC2 5-3 2 4-3
Atlanta WC3 4-4 3 2-4
Carolina 4-5 4 2-4
Minnesota 3-5 2 3-2
Seattle 3-5 3 1-3
San Francisco 3-5 4 3-4
Philadelphia, Chicago and the Giants are all 3-6.
The Cardinals and idle Buccaneers were big winners as Green Bay, Dallas, New Orleans and the Rams all lost (not to mention CAR, MINN, SF). Atlanta’s win over the Saints put the Falcons back in the playoffs and brought New Orleans back towards the line.
FootballOutsiders.com has something called DVOA that rates teams and right now it says that the Colts (1.1%) have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the Saints (0.9%) or the Raiders (0.7%).
The reigning champs are about 20% to defend.
Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win
TB 51.5% 31.1% 19.7%
ARI 44.0% 23.8% 15.2%
BUF 44.0% 27.7% 13.7%
BAL 35.5% 19.6% 8.5%
LAR 25.5% 12.6% 7.3%
DAL 29.7% 13.4% 7.2%
TEN 37.4% 17.5% 6.2%
GB 25.4% 10.7% 5.4%
CLE 15.5% 7.6% 3.2%
KC 12.8% 5.5% 2.1%
NE 12.4% 5.5% 2.0%
SEA 7.9% 3.3% 1.8%
LAC 12.6% 5.0% 1.7%
PIT 9.2% 3.9% 1.2%
IND 6.3% 2.7% 1.1%
Based on how they have played lately, we might think the Patriots are a little better than 25-to-1.
What about winning the division? DVOA sees 4 races as largely over, including one (TB) where the leader has a loss to the closest pursuer.
AFC South TEN 97%
NFC East DAL 95%
NFC South TB 91%
NFC North GB 89%
AFC East BUF 81%
NFC West ARZ 76%
AFC North BAL 59%
AFC West LAC 39%
The AFC West is that rare four-way donnybrook with each of the four teams given a better than 20% chance of winning.
Here are the five teams with the best chance for the first overall pick:
Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
DET 54.3% 95.3%
HOU 26.3% 89.2%
NYJ 9.7% 68.0%
JAX 4.5% 52.4%
WAS 1.7% 40.4%
– – –
A tweet from Taylor Biscotti:
All 4 teams in the AFC West have exactly 5 wins:
Chargers & Raiders are 5-3
Chiefs & Broncos are 5-4
First division in NFL history for all its teams to have exactly 5 wins through Week 9
With Pittsburgh’s win last night the AFC North has all four teams with 5 OR 6 wins.
– – –
The NFL may have “consulted” with the NFL Players Association about emphasizing taunting – but it sounds like it was more like a “here’s what we are going to do” as opposed to “what do you think?” Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
The NFL says it factored players’ views into the decision to make taunting a point of emphasis this season. But Browns center JC Tretter, who is the president of the players’ union, says the players don’t want it.
The NFL Players Association tweeted a quote from Tretter saying that he personally attended an offseason competition committee meeting to discuss the taunting point of emphasis, and that he and his fellow players don’t agree with it.
“I can assure you, as an attendee of the competition committee meeting myself, we would support the removal of this point of emphasis [on taunting] immediately,” Tretter said.
The NFLPA tweet came in response to a tweet from NFL Executive VP of Football Operations Troy Vincent, who claimed that the point of emphasis came after a collaboration with players. The NFLPA is disputing that there was any meaningful collaboration.
Taunting has been a hot topic in the NFL all season, but it boiled over on Monday night, when Bears linebacker Cassius Marsh was called for a highly questionable taunting penalty that handed the Steelers an automatic first down after a crucial Bears third down stop late in the game. |
| NFC NORTH |
|
CHICAGO
When it was all over, the Bears did not specifically lose because of ref Tony Corrente’s heat-seeking search for a silent taunting penalty. But it sure aroused a clamor amongst those who clamor. A small sample:
@FieldYates
Good morning to everyone except the people who instituted the NFL’s taunting rules.
Sam Monson
@PFF_Sam
Ah come on, NFL. This taunting stuff is just b—s– now.
@AdamHoge
Just wait until the taunting rule decides a playoff game
@SInow
wow that taunting call
@jemelehill
Say it with me, the NFL’s taunting rule is stupid, heavy-handed and … did I say stupid?
@ComplexSports
Taunting penalties are ruining the game
@SkyBlue_Am
Taunting! Are you kidding. No Fun League. Absolute joke. #C5MNF #CHIvsPIT
@RealMikeWilbon
Every week the Bears are guilty, through taunting or something, of being stupid…and every week the zebras are guilty of intruding on football games with calls that are moronic and game changing…
Taunting is a joke. Bears got robbed. You are an absolute shitshow
@RealSkipBayless
Ex-Steeler Cassius Marsh just got called for taunting for running a few steps toward Steelers bench & glaring from middle of the field. Obviously that’s taking it too far. But the point is, players were warned refs would crack down on this and Marsh gave them the tiniest reason.
@CarterCritiques
LMAOOOOOOO I’m sorry but this is why the taunting call was always trash. #Steelers #Bears.
Adding “possible injury” to the penalty, Corrente clearly gave a hip check to Marsh while making a show of lofting the flag into space. Mike Florio:
If you thought the taunting call on Bears linebacker Cassius Marsh was weird, another element of the broader incident was even weirder.
Marsh, flagged for taunting the sideline and/or Pittsburgh’s punter after a key fourth-quarter sack of Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, jogged past referee Tony Corrente, before the flag was thrown. Corrente, as noted by Will Brinson of CBSSports.com, leaned into Marsh, creating contact between player and referee. Corrente then made a big deal out of throwing his flag straight into the sky.
While it’s entirely possible that Marsh’s behavior crossed the get-off-my-lawn line that the NFL has drawn between permissible celebration and prohibited in-your-face antics, Corrente’s behavior seems very odd.
Corrente offered this:
Corrente was made available to speak to a pool reporter, NBC Sports Chicago’s Adam Hoge, after the game to give his explanation for the call, but it wasn’t a very satisfying one.
“First of all, keep in mind that taunting is a point of emphasis this year,” Corrente said. “And with that said, I saw the player, after he made a big play, run toward the bench area of the Pittsburgh Steelers and posture in such a way that I felt he was taunting them.”
That’s a perfect encapsulation of why fans are so frustrated with the taunting crackdown. It doesn’t matter if the supposed targets of the taunt felt disrespected. If 69-year-old Tony Corrente doesn’t like the way a guy looked at his opponents, boom—15 yards.
It’s a pure judgment call, and, after reading what else Corrente had to tell Hoge, I’m not inclined to trust his judgment. Hoge asked him whether Marsh’s contact with him had anything to do with the flag being thrown. Corrente said not only that it wasn’t a factor, but that he wasn’t even aware Marsh had bumped into him.
“That, I’m not aware of at all, no,” Corrente said. “I didn’t judge that as anything that I dealt with.”
Corrente says he “ran” – whatever word you would reasonably apply to Marsh’s movements – sauntered, danced, sidled, hopped, slithered – run should not be the one.
And Corrente says he “felt” a “posture” created the “taunt.”
That wasn’t the only flag by Corrente that had the Bears seething. He tries to explain taking a TD off the board for Chicago and it goes over about as well as Aaron Rodgers’ explanation with Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
The Bears had a touchdown taken off the board on Monday Night Football when Chicago’s James Daniels was flagged for an illegal low block on Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt. Referee Tony Corrente’s explanation won’t satisfy the Bears.
Although Watt appeared to be inside the tight end box when Daniels went low to block him, Corrente said he was outside the tight end box.
“The new rule this year is there should be no contact below the waist to any player outside of the tight end box. And this player initiated low contact to a player outside the tight end box,” Corrente said.
It also wasn’t even clear if Daniels ever touched Watt. Replay angles were inconclusive, but Watt appeared to avoid Daniels. If there was any contact, it was incidental. But Corrente didn’t see it that way.
“I have to judge that there was contact, and that’s what I judged,” Corrente said.
The call was incredibly costly for the Bears, as they had to settle for a field goal after the 15-yard penalty wiped their touchdown off the board. That essentially means the call cost the Bears four points in a game they lost 29-27. |
|
GREEN BAY
QB AARON RODGERS convinced some people with his explanation for his status as unvaccinated, but immunized, but few of them are in the media. Now, he’s hurt. Since this comes from People Magazine, we suspect fiancée Shailene Woodley or her team had something to do with this:
Aaron Rodgers isn’t happy with the way his decision not to get vaccinated against COVID-19 has been received.
The Green Bay Packers star is “upset” at the response to his recent admission that he is not vaccinated against COVID-19 after previously saying that he had been “immunized” against the virus, a source close to the NFL star tells PEOPLE
The source says that Rodgers “feels like he just shared his point of view, and now he’s being crucified for it.”
“He knew some people would disagree with him, but he didn’t know that it would become the s—storm it became. People who he thought were friends are turning on him,” the source tells PEOPLE.
“He’s upset,” the insider adds. “He’s very unhappy with the response to him.”
After Rodgers was placed on the Packers’ reserve/COVID-19 list last week, he appeared on the Pat McAfee Show Friday to “set the record straight” after it was revealed that he hadn’t actually gotten a COVID-19 vaccine. During the interview, he argued that he hadn’t lied about being immunized he had taken ivermectin, a drug used foremost to treat or prevent parasites in animals. The FDA has not authorized or approved the drug for use in treating or preventing COVID-19, and in cases where it was taken, people have been hospitalized.
Rodgers said he was allergic to an ingredient in the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna), and did not want to receive the Johnson & Johnson shot because he claimed, “I had heard of multiple people who had had adverse events around getting the J&J.”
He also said that he had done extensive research into COVID-19 prevention, including consulting with podcast host Joe Rogan, who contracted the virus in September.
The source tells PEOPLE that “of course Joe Rogan wasn’t the only one who he consulted. He’s talked to medical professionals, too.”
“Aaron feels like he’s an athlete, he knows about his body more than most people, and he made a choice for himself,” the source says.
Still, many have been skeptical at Rodgers’ explanation — and several high-profile athletes have spoken out against the quarterback’s reasoning.
Having drawn blood as a leader of the torrent of Rodgers’ criticism, Mike Florio chortles and speculates:
Yes, he’s the victim. He’s always the victim. And he’s surely feeling even more victimized because he’s being criticized not only by people in the media whom he can simply write off as part of the “woke mob,” but by Hall of Famers like Fox’s Terry Bradshaw, Michael Strahan, Jimmy Johnson, and Howie Long.
The fact that Rodgers — who does nothing accidentally — has leaked his viewpoint to People.comunderscores a topic from Monday’s PFT Live. Although the chances of it happening remain very low, there’s a soft blip on the edge of the radar screen that bears watching over the next few days. Given the torrent of criticism, the looming NFL discipline, and the inevitable mandate from 345 Park Avenue warning Rodgers that he must comply with mask requirements or else, Rodgers could be thinking about calling it quits.
I’m not saying he is. I’m saying he could be. He was supposedly 50-50 on retiring just a few days before reporting for training camp. Was he ambivalent in part because he didn’t want to get vaccinated and he didn’t want to comply with the onerous protocols for the unvaccinated? He was able to have it both ways for weeks. Now that his ruse has been exposed, his choices are: (1) get vaccinated; (2) comply with the protocols; or (3) retire.
This woe-is-me routine could be (not is or will be, but could be) a precursor to Rodgers giving EVERYONE a double-barreled middle finger and walking away. |
| NFC WEST |
|
LOS ANGELES RAMS
Sam Farmer:
@LATimesfarmer
Talked to Cooper Kupp’s dad and he had some bad news: The guys in his fantasy league are no longer going to allow him to draft his son as a courtesy. Craig Kupp will have to compete for him next season.
Dante Koplowitz-Fleming of NFL.com with the statistical reasons:
Cooper Kupp has become truly elite
The NFL has a new No. 1 wide receiver. Cooper Kupp, a third-round pick out of Eastern Washington in 2017, has ascended to elite status just nine games into 2021. The 28-year-old Ram has put up some ridiculous numbers — he currently leads the NFL with 74 receptions, 1,019 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns. Kupp is on pace to become the fifth player in the Super Bowl era to lead the league in all three major receiving categories, joining Steve Smith (2005), Sterling Sharpe (1992), Jerry Rice (1990) and Lance Alworth (1966). For those counting at home, that’s two Hall of Famers (Rice and Alworth), a should-be-Hall of Famer (Sharpe) and a player who is eligible for the Hall of Fame for the first time this year (Smith).
And that’s not where the similarities to Rice end. Only two players in the Super Bowl era have totaled 1,000-plus yards and 10-plus touchdowns receiving in their team’s first nine games of the season: Kupp and Rice (1990). To further this almost sacrilegious comparison to the G.W.R.O.A.T., we’ll point out Kupp won the Jerry Rice Award — which recognizes the FCS national freshman of the year — in 2013 while at Eastern Washington. |
| AFC NORTH |
|
BALTIMORE
More on why QB LAMAR JACKSON is squarely in the MVP race. Dante Koplowitz-Fleming of NFL.com:
Lamar Jackson is having his best season — and he should win another MVP
Prior to the season, Lamar Jackson was asked whether he will be “figured out” in 2021. His answer can be summed up in three words: “I doubt it.”
His play this year should put to bed any remaining notions that Jackson can be solved.
Jackson and the Ravens are 6-2 and are currently positioned as the No. 2 seed in the AFC despite trailing in the fourth quarter in five of their eight games played this year. Jackson and Baltimore are 4-1 when trailing in the fourth quarter this year, for a winning percentage of .800 — if it holds, that would surpass Peyton Manning’s 2009 record for best winning percentage when trailing in the fourth quarter in a single season since 2000, among those with a minimum of five QB starts (Manning was 7-2 when trailing in the fourth quarter in 2009 and won NFL MVP).
Jackson, who was 0-4 in his regular-season career prior to this season when trailing by double digits at any point in the second half, is now 3-1 in that scenario in 2021. No QB since at least 2000 has more than four wins in a full season in games they trailed by double digits in the second half.
To top it off, Jackson has averaged a career-high 276.1 passing yards per game this season (10th-most in the NFL) and 75.0 rushing yards (seventh-most among all players). Prior to 2021, the best rushing average by a player who also averaged 275-plus passing yards per game in a season was 30.3, set by Hall of Famer Steve Young in 1998. Jackson is on pace to more than double that average. He’s also on pace for 1,275 rushing yards, which would break his own QB rushing record set in 2019 (1,206 in his MVP season). |
|
CLEVELAND
COVID has found its way to Cleveland and defeated the defenses of the vaccines to gut the Browns offensive backfield. Kevin Patra of NFL.com:
The Cleveland Browns backfield will be questionable for Sunday’s game against the New England Patriots.
Browns running backs Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton tested positive for COVID-19, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported Tuesday.
Both backs are vaccinated, so they aren’t immediately ruled out for Week 10. Each player would need two negative tests 24 hours apart to play.
If Chubb, the engine of the Cleveland offense, can’t play Sunday in New England, it would be a massive blow to the run-heavy Browns club. Chubb missed two games earlier this season due to a calf injury. In Sunday’s win over Cincinnati, the back powered for 137 yards and two TDs on just 14 carries (9.79 YPA).
With Kareem Hunt still on injured reserve and backup John Kelly placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Monday, D’Ernest Johnson is currently the only healthy running back on the roster.
As usual, the presumption is that the illness itself is nothing to worry about with a healthy athlete.
– – –
The Browns fortify their line for the future with an extension for G WYATT TELLER. Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer:
Wyatt Teller, who carried a dead alligator on his shoulders in the offseason and could probably do the same with the unsuspecting defenders he pancakes on a regular basis, has agreed with the Browns on a four-year contract extension worth $14.2 million a year, league sources told cleveland.com.
The $56.8 million deal includes $28 million guaranteed and makes him the second-highest paid guard in the NFL in terms of yearly average. Kansas City’s Joe Thuney is No. 1 at $16 million a year. (Washington’s Brandon Scherff is playing on the franchise tag of $18.03 million, which doesn’t count in terms of yearly average. The agreement keeps Teller with the Browns through 2025.
Currently the No. 2 rated guard in the NFL with an 89.8 grade by Pro Football Focus, Teller forms one of the best guard tandems in the league with three-time Pro Bowler Joel Bitonio, who’s now the 14th-highest paid guard in the league at $8.527 million a year. Bitonio, who might now need a bit of a raise, is the third-ranked guard in the league at 88.7.
During Sunday’s 41-16 victory over the Bengals, Teller delivered a crushing pancake block on safety Jessie Bates to spring Nick Chubb on his 70-yard touchdown blast, and helped bust open holes for him to rush for 137 yards and two touchdowns. For his efforts, he earned the top grade among all offensive playeres in the NFL for Week 9 at 93.8, according to PFF.
Before the season, Teller wondered if the Browns would be able to pay him his market value, or if he’d have to hit the free agent market in March.
“We have such a good team, all the money can’t go around,’’ Teller said in August. “It’s just impossible. I want to make the most that I can. We make this money for a short amount of time and 80% of the league is bankrupt after five years. So do it smart, get what you deserve, get what you earn and the rest can go down as history.’
But he noted that he wanted to remain an integral part of Browns’ star-studded line and Super Bowl contending team.
“The better I do, the better the guys around me do, the better the team does,’’ he said. “The better the team does, we all get paid. It’s not a bad problem to have for AB [GM Andrew Berry], having to deal with all this money.”
Teller, 26, is a major reason the Browns are No. 2 in the NFL with 160.2 rushing yards per game, and why Chubb is third in the NFL with 721 rushing yards despite missing two games. Chubb is also second in the league with 6.0 yards per rush.
“The mindset is, look, I’m gonna do so well that it’s gonna make Nick look better,’’ Teller told cleveland.com during trading camp. “It’s gonna make Baker [Mayfield] look better. It’s gonna make everybody look better and then we’re all gonna get paid. If it’s here, we all dream for that.”
Teller has grown close to his teammates, and has made Cleveland his second home.
“Your mindset is you want to stay,” he said. “I don’t want to leave. I love my house. I love the city. I love the community. But that’s the business side.”
A mauler who dominated during Sunday’s 41-16 victory over the Bengals, became one of the best guards in the NFL in 2020 in Kevin Stefanski’s wide-zone scheme, which suits his athletic ability perfectly.
“I had a great (right) tackle. I had one of the smartest centers I’ve ever seen in my entire life,” he said. “Our backfield is crazy. Our quarterback is one of the best move-the-pocket (guys) I’ve ever seen in my entire life. We have some of the best receivers who can get open. I mean, we are blessed. I’m blessed to have that opportunity.” |
| AFC SOUTH |
|
TENNESSEE
Ed Werder tweets a factoid:
@WerderEdESPN
From @ESPNStatsInfo : The #Titans are the 4th team in the last 15 seasons to win 4 straight games, all against playoff teams from the previous season. The previous 3 teams to do it all made the Super Bowl, and 2 won it. |
| AFC EAST |
|
BUFFALO
This from Scott Kacsmar on how unique Buffalo’s loss might be:
@ScottKacsmar
I think Buffalo is the first 14+ point favorite in NFL history to lose a game after allowing fewer than 10 points.
Closest comparison is Elway and the 86 Broncos losing 9-3 as 13.5 point favorites to the Chargers almost 35 years to the date. |
|
NEW YORK JETS
As you might imagine, the Jets are in no hurry to put struggling rookie QB ZACH WILSON back into the fray. Greg Joyce of the New York Post:
The Jets hope to get Zach Wilson back on the practice field this week for the first time since he suffered a knee injury in Week 7.
But the rookie quarterback will have to prove he is fully healthy in order to play on Sunday against the Bills, and until then, Mike White appears to be headed for another start.
“If [Wilson] is not fully healthy, it’d be irresponsible for us to throw him out there,” coach Robert Saleh said Monday. “We’ll see how it looks, but we’re not in any hurry to rush him back because of the fact that this is a two-to-four week injury [and] he’s going into week three. There’s a couple hurdles he has to pass yet.”
The Jets’ first practice of the week isn’t until Wednesday, but Saleh said he should know by then who his starter is and that quarterback will get all of the first-team reps.
White, who stepped in for Wilson when the No. 2 pick sprained his PCL against the Patriots, delivered a spark to the Jets’ offense before suffering his own injury — a nerve contusion in his right forearm that didn’t allow him to fully grip the football — in the first quarter of Thursday’s 45-30 loss to the Colts.
Saleh said he hopes to have all four quarterbacks — Wilson, White, Josh Johnson and Joe Flacco — as full participants in Wednesday’s practice, but again cautioned there are still hurdles left for Wilson to clear.
“If he’s fully healthy, for sure [Wilson will play],” Saleh said.
Meanwhile, QB MIKE WHITE is said to be “fully healthy” from last week’s forearm injury and would be good to go this week. |
|
THIS AND THAT |
|
ODELL
WR ODELL BECKHAM, Jr. has let it be known he does not want to be claimed, but wants to pick his team as a free agent after 4 p.m. today. But can he get as good of a deal as he had with the Browns?
After his release from the Browns, Odell Beckham Jr.’s preferred next destination is the Seahawks, according to Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.
At the moment, Beckham does not have complete control of his destiny. He’s set to hit waivers and can be claimed by any other 31 non-Cleveland teams before 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
Florio reports that Beckham prefers to hit free agency. On Sunday morning, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Beckham was “likely to clear waivers” and gain the ability to choose his next team.
“He prefers to be a free agent. The teams to watch, I’m told, are the Seahawks, the 49ers, and the Saints,” Florio said during NBC’s Sunday Night Football pregame show. “And I’m told he prefers the Seattle Seahawks.”
At 3–5, the Seahawks are currently ninth in the waiver order, if they want to claim to Beckham. San Francisco is 12th and New Orleans is down at 23rd.
The Seahawks have the financial flexibility to add the former Giants and Browns wide receiver.
When asked whether the team would claim Beckham on Monday evening, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll offered a cryptic response: “You’ll see.”
“We’re aware of what’s going on and we’ve been involved to understand it and compete…,” Carroll said, per Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio. “We’ll let you know as soon as it happens. I got to wait. So, I didn’t say yes or I didn’t say no.”
Seattle trails the 8–1 Cardinals and 7–2 Rams in the NFC West. The Rams, Saints, Falcons and Panthers are all ahead of the Seahawks for wild-card spots as we near the midway point in the season.
Seattle’s hopes of turning around its season may depend on the coming return of Russell Wilson, who has been out since the Oct. 7 loss to the Rams with a fractured middle finger.
The Beckham-Seahawks interest may not be one-sided, either.
USA Today reports the Seahawks “have shown strong interest in acquiring the wide receiver” at the urging of Wilson.
“In recent days, team officials have done extensive research on the wideout,” per the report.
Sean Payton wants you to know that his Saints can’t afford WR ODELL BECKHAM, Jr. who went to the same New Orleans high school as the Mannings. FOX News:
New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton was asked whether or not the team would put in a claim for Odell Beckham Jr. prior to Tuesday’s 4 p.m. ET deadline, but he made it clear that the only way he would become a Saint is if he goes unclaimed.
“The claiming deadline is today. No, it’s impossible for us to put a claim in on the player. You just have to look at the salary cap space,” Payton said on Monday, via NOLA.com. “And if we were going to put in a claim, it wouldn’t be something we discuss. I know it makes hit-worthy news.”
The Saints are one of the teams barely under the cap. According to the NFLPA’s public cap report, New Orleans has $710,136 available, which isn’t enough to absorb Beckham’s contract.
New Orleans is certainly in the market for a wide receiver, especially after its 27-25 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.
Saints quarterback Trevor Siemian completed 25 of 41 passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns, and the team’s leading receiver was running back Alvin Kamara, who hauled in four catches for 54 yards in defeat.
Dan Wetzel of YahooSports.com on the calculations ensuing based on Beckham’s diminishing value:
What exactly is a team getting at this point of his career? Not just in attitude – although, more on that later – but aptitude from a 29-year-old wideout?
Beckham is one of the most famous players in the league, capable of generating enormous fan and media interest. Much of that stems from a three-year stretch of play with the New York Giants that slips deeper into history with each successive week.
Beckham burst into the league by averaging 96 catches, 1,374 yards and 11.7 touchdowns per season over his first three years. He made a famous one-handed touchdown catch as a rookie against the Dallas Cowboys – part of a 10-for-146-and-two TD performance – and became a star.
He was incredible.
Yet a fractured ankle wiped out most of his fourth season and while there have been flashes of the old OBJ since, it’s never consistent.
The man who caught 35 touchdown passes from 2014-2016 has just 16 since. There were thousand yard receiving seasons in 2018 (with the Giants) and 2019 (with Cleveland) but his 108.8 yards per game average as a rookie has fallen in recent seasons to 64.7 in 2019, 45.6 in 2020 and 38.7 thus far in 2021.
He grades out as the 79th best receiver in the league this year, per Pro Football Focus, behind Seattle’s Penny Hart, Jacksonville’s Jamal Agnew and Las Vegas’ Bryan Edwards.
Is that because, as Beckham (or at least his father) has noted, he isn’t targeted enough? Football is a complicated game. So you never know.
But Beckham has caught just 50 percent of the balls thrown to him (17 of 34) this season, ranking 169th in the league and third to last for wide receivers who have caught more than 10 passes, per PFF.
He’s 3 of 7 on contested catches. He’s flat-out dropped two when he was open.
His former teammate in Cleveland Donovan Peoples-Jones is 9 of 10 on contested passes and hasn’t dropped an on-target ball all season. It might help explain why the Browns won without OBJ this past Sunday as DPJ’s influence in the offense has grown in recent weeks.
Does all of this mean Beckham has no value? It would be foolish to suggest that. He’s still capable of plenty. However, he’s something of a Tinder profile. He looks good if you focus on the picture that was taken five years ago that is seared in everyone’s memory. What actually shows up on the date is anyone’s guess. |
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RANKING THE OFFENSES AT MIDSEASON
Shiel Kapadia of The Athletic (edited somewhat):
We’re nine weeks into the 18-week NFL season, which means now is a good time to reset and take a look at where things stand.
Below you’ll find a ranking of all 32 offenses. This is a projection based on which units are most trustworthy the rest of the way.
Three quick notes before we get started:
EPA stands for Expected Points Added and is used as a performance metric.
Success rate measures consistency but puts less weight on explosive plays and high-leverage turnovers.
When I refer to great games, that refers to performances in the 75th percentile or better in EPA per drive. When I refer to bad games, that refers to performances in the 25th percentile or worse.
Stats are courtesy of TruMedia and Pro Football Focus. Let’s get to it.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They’re averaging a league-high 30.1 points per game and are one of four offenses that has not had what would qualify as a bad game. Tom Brady is fourth in EPA per play. He’s on pace for 5,631 passing yards and 53 touchdowns. The Bucs have a strong offensive line and are loaded at wide receiver. They throw the ball 60.6 percent of the time on early downs, which is third-highest. But the Bucs can run the ball when they need to, ranking eighth in DVOA. There really aren’t many questions with this group when it’s healthy.
2. Dallas Cowboys
They’re coming off of easily their worst game of the season, but the Cowboys have been one of the league’s most efficient offenses through nine weeks. Prescott is third in EPA per play, Kellen Moore has done an excellent job, and the Cowboys have an offense that can do damage in a number of ways: efficient pass game, explosive pass game, and/or devastating run game.
Bottom line: If Prescott is healthy, this is a Super Bowl-caliber offense.
3. Los Angeles Rams
We have to avoid recency bias here. The Rams got smoked Sunday night in what was easily their worst game of the season. But zoom out, and we see that was their only bad performance all season….The Rams are as good a bet as there is to finish with a top-five offense.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
I can’t quit them. A couple weeks ago, I wrote an “R-E-L-A-X” column about the Chiefs. Since then, they’ve scored a combined 33 points in two games. The offense isn’t right. There’s no denying that. But overall, the Chiefs are seventh in EPA per drive and 10th in success rate. You can point to how their offense was better in the beginning of the season than it is now, and that’s fair. But traditionally, it’s been more beneficial to look at the bigger sample when determining what a team really is.
The turnovers have still been the Chiefs’ biggest issue. They didn’t have any Sunday, but overall, they have the worst turnover EPA in the NFL. They’re also struggling to produce explosive plays. The Chiefs have just 30 plays of 20-plus yards, which is tied for 18th league-wide.
The offense has produced three great games, but those came in Weeks 1, 2 and 4. What’s different about this year’s group is they produce clunkers. The Chiefs’ performances in Weeks 5, 7 and 9 qualify as bad, meaning in the bottom 25 percent of all offensive performances so far this season.
I am not going to sit here and tell you they’re going to be fine. I’m not confident of that. But Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill are healthy. They still have Andy Reid. And the offensive line ranks eighth in pass block win rate. I think there’s a better chance of the Chiefs figuring things out than there is that they continue to look this bad.
5. Buffalo Bills
To a degree, I could just copy the Chiefs blurb into this section. This is all about believing in the talent and the coaching over previous performance.
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The concerns for Buffalo are real. But at the end of the day, they have a top-tier quarterback in Josh Allen, excellent weapons, and a smart coaching staff. I trust them to find answers (I think).
6. Green Bay Packers
With Aaron Rodgers, they ranked sixth in EPA per drive, but Green Bay’s ranking dropped to ninth after the abysmal performance Sunday with Jordan Love.
With a healthy Rodgers, this is a top-10 group with a high ceiling. Davante Adams is a problem every week. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon are an effective one-two punch. And the offensive line seems to figure it out, regardless of who’s playing. Plus, they’re expecting to get standout left tackle David Bakhtiari back soon, which should offer a huge boost. Assuming Rodgers doesn’t miss any more time and is close to 100 percent, the Packers’ offense is one of the most dependable units in the league.
7. Baltimore Ravens
They’ve leaned on the passing game more than they ever had previously with Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are throwing 54.3 percent of the time on early downs, which ranks 13th league-wide. From 2019 to 2020, they were at 43.2 percent, which ranked 32nd. And it’s worked well. Jackson is completing 65 percent of his passes and averaging 8.3 yards per attempt (YPA). His average pass has traveled 10.4 yards past the line of scrimmage, which is tops among starters.
The numbers suggest the Ravens are a team that can win in multiple ways.
8. Cleveland Browns
There’s definitely some variance to the Browns’ offense. They’ve produced four great games, which is tied for second-most. But the Browns have also produced three performances that qualify as bad.
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Baker Mayfield has battled through injuries and ranks 20th in EPA per play. The Browns have arguably the NFL’s best offensive line and a capable group of pass-catchers, even without Odell Beckham Jr.
Kevin Stefanski has established himself as a bright schemer and play-caller. This should be a strong group the rest of the way.
9. Arizona Cardinals
For the better part of two seasons, I’ve been among those who have credited Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins for carrying the Cardinals’ offense. But Kliff Kingsbury deserves credit. He delivered one of the best coaching performances of the year in Week 9, as Arizona dominated the San Francisco 49ers without Murray and Hopkins. The Cardinals are one of two offenses averaging at least 30 points per game. And they’ve been remarkably consistent. Arizona is one of four offenses that has not had what would qualify as a bad performance statistically.
The big question here is Murray’s health. The Colt McCoy experience was fun for one week, and Arizona can probably survive another game or two with him. But if the Cardinals want to compete for a Super Bowl, they obviously need Murray healthy. We saw Arizona’s offense crater in the second half of last season when Murray was playing injured. That would be the nightmare scenario. The uncertainty around Murray’s status is why the Cardinals aren’t higher here.
10. Seattle Seahawks
If we isolate just the snaps where they had Russell Wilson, the Seahawks performed like roughly the 17th-best offense in terms of EPA per play. Without Wilson, they performed like roughly the 23rd-ranked offense. DVOA, which takes opponent strength into account, is more bullish on Seattle’s offense, and had it ranked eighth overall going into Week 9 (meaning they’ve played a tough slate of defenses).
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It’s impossible to know how much Wilson’s injury will affect him, but he’ll have a competent offensive line, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to work with. At 3-5, the margin for error will be small. History tells us that Wilson-led offenses generally produce like top-10 units. I’m counting on that down the stretch.
11. Los Angeles Chargers
They are a tough group to get a handle on. Though the Chargers rank fourth in EPA per drive, they are 31st in offensive success rate. What does that mean? It suggests that they’ve come through in high-leverage situations but have been inconsistent on a snap-to-snap basis. Kind of matches the eye test, doesn’t it? On early downs, the Chargers rank 16th in EPA per play and 29th in success rate. In other words, Justin Herbert has bailed them out quite a bit. Overall, though, they’ve had only one offensive game that qualifies as bad statistically.
Some of that is due to protection issues, but it still feels like the coaches haven’t quite figured out how to maximize Herbert’s talent yet.
12. Tennessee Titans
We knew what they wanted to do with Derrick Henry. The Titans were one of the NFL’s most run-heavy offenses and feasted on play-action. The formula worked. The Titans have produced four great games, which is tied for second-most behind only the Rams. Their only bad game came in Week 1. But now things get tricky. Tennessee had an impressive win Sunday against the Rams, but the offense produced just 194 yards and 16 first downs.
Despite injuries, the Titans’ offensive line has performed well. Ryan Tannehill has capable weapons in A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. If those three players stay healthy, the Titans are still capable of delivering an above-average offense without Henry.
13. San Francisco 49ers
Niners fans are beside themselves after Sunday’s embarrassing loss to the Cardinals. But NFL coaches love to talk about how things are never as bad as they seem after a loss and never as good as they seem after a win. That’s probably true here.
The 49ers could have issues up front with right tackle Mike McGlinchey reportedly out for the season. But with George Kittle back healthy and Brandon Aiyuk back in the mix, the 49ers should be able to produce an above-average offense the rest of the way.
14. Cincinnati Bengals
In some ways, they’ve felt like an all-or-nothing offense. The Bengals have six completions of 50-plus yards, which is second to only the Rams. On the flip side, 36.2 percent of their possessions have resulted in three-and-outs; that’s fourth-worst.
As anyone who watched their last two games knows, turnovers have killed the Bengals. Only three teams have a worse EPA on turnovers, so that’s something that could potentially regress in their favor.
15. Indianapolis Colts
Raise your hand if you’re surprised to learn that the Colts’ offense ranks sixth in EPA per drive (I am raising my hand). Carson Wentz is 14th in EPA per play among starting quarterbacks, but what’s really keyed the Colts’ success is their explosive run game. Indianapolis has 10 designed runs of 20-plus yards and 31 designed runs of 10-plus yards — both are second league-wide. They are one of four teams that hasn’t had what would qualify as a bad game statistically.
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It hasn’t always been pretty, and the Colts have benefited from a soft schedule of opposing defenses, but Frank Reich has built a high-floor, competent offense.
16. Las Vegas Raiders
They’ve morphed into a pass-first, big-play offense this season. The Raiders’ 45 plays of 20-plus yards are tops in the NFL. They’re throwing the ball 59.9 percent of the time on early downs, which ranks fifth.
The Raiders have had a season like no other team in the NFL. They’ll move forward without Jon Gruden and Henry Ruggs. Derek Carr has shown that he is a solid starter with a high floor as long as the offensive line protects him. He has trustworthy targets in Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. DeSean Jackson, if healthy, can offer some big-play ability, along with Bryan Edwards.
Josh Jacobs has been in and out of the lineup with injuries, and the Raiders have struggled to run the ball. Going forward, this looks like a competent group that could have high variance.
17. Minnesota Vikings
They’re not terrible, but they’re not that good. It’s the ongoing story of Kirk Cousins, Mike Zimmer and the Minnesota Vikings. In terms of EPA per drive, the Vikings are on pace to have their worst offense since 2018. And though anything is possible because they are one of the weirdest teams in the league, it seems unlikely that things suddenly flip for this group.
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This is a mediocre group that will have some great games, some terrible games, and many, many frustrating moments the rest of the way.
18. Denver Broncos
They are probably the safest bet to be mediocre the rest of the way. They’ve had one great game (Week 1 against the Giants) and one bad game (Week 4 against the Ravens). Everything else has been somewhere in between.
19. New England Patriots
There are some underlying numbers that suggest the Patriots’ offense could turn a corner if it could just cut down on the turnovers. But in all likelihood, this is a mediocre unit. The Patriots have produced just one above-average game statistically all season. That’s tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions for fewest in the NFL.
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New England doesn’t do anything great on offense, but it does most things at a competent level. This is another high-floor, low-ceiling group.
20. Philadelphia Eagles
The fact that they’re 11th in EPA per drive is probably stunning to Eagles fans. Even if we account for garbage time, they still rank 14th. Would you believe that they’ve had as many great games (three) statistically as the Cardinals, Ravens, and Chiefs?
The Eagles’ run game has been very good…
The passing game is all over the place. Hurts’ expected completion percentage is 61.9, which ranks 36th out of 37 quarterbacks. Part of the blame falls on the coaching/scheme, but Hurts has not seen the field well and has failed to cut it loose when he’s had guys open.
This group has a low ceiling and could take a dip in the second half of the season with worse turnover luck.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are mediocre to below-average across the board: quarterback, offensive line, run game. Whether it’s Najee Harris, Chase Claypool or someone else, they count on one of their playmakers to give them just enough of a lift every week. But overall, this is a limited group without much upside.
22. Atlanta Falcons
They just have a lot working against them. The offensive line isn’t very good. Aside from Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson, the weapons are limited. And the run game has been among the least efficient in the NFL. The Falcons are 29th in success rate and 29th in explosive plays.
Give Matt Ryan, Arthur Smith, and the offense credit for beating the Saints in Week 9. But I don’t see this group making some kind of significant leap in the second half of the season.
23. Chicago Bears
If you’re a Bears fan, this season is less about wins and losses and more about seeing if Justin Fields can give you a handful of highlights each week that make you believe better times are ahead. And Fields is doing that — specifically in the last two weeks when he’s completed 64.3 percent of his passes and averaged 8.3 YPA. Fields is simultaneously flashing his talent and making mistakes. That’s usually the deal with rookie quarterbacks. But he’s getting better and has drastically improved the viewing experience. There will continue to be growing pains with Fields the rest of the way, but it feels like the arrow is pointing up and this unit could have some juice in the next nine weeks.
24. New Orleans Saints
They have a great coach in Sean Payton, a strong offensive line and Alvin Kamara. Those three things have managed to keep the Saints’ offense afloat. But it could get ugly down the stretch with Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill playing quarterback and a lackluster group of pass-catchers. The Saints’ only great offensive performance came in Week 1. Their 18 plays of 20-plus yards are fewest in the NFL. Payton is one of the brightest offensive minds of the past 20 years. But he’s not a magician.
25. New York Giants
They’ve had a number of injuries on offense, a below-average line and Jason Garrett calling plays. New York has produced 27 explosive plays, which is tied for 24th. The Giants go through stretches when they look competent or even fun, but those stretches always seem to fade quickly. The Giants rank 24th in success rate. Their only great performance was in a Week 4 win against the Saints. Maybe if they get healthier, they can produce more highlights in the second half of the season. But I see little reason for real optimism.
26. Washington Football Team
Without Ryan Fitzpatrick, they’ve been a complete bore and have faded into irrelevancy. The numbers suggest their offensive line has overachieved. Washington ranked second in pass block win rate going into Week 9.
Taylor Heinicke has had some entertaining moments but ranks 23rd in EPA per play. Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin are fun. But overall, there’s been pretty much nothing noteworthy about this group. They produced four games that qualify as bad statistically; that’s tied for second most.
27. Miami Dolphins
With Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins have performed like roughly the 26th-ranked offense. Without him, they’re more like the 31st-ranked offense. Somehow, I’m not sure that’s going to make Dolphins fans feel all that better.
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Maybe the Dolphins show some marginal improvement the rest of the way, but most likely, they’ll be facing an offseason of changes.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars
A lot of times, it’s felt like Trevor Lawrence hasn’t had a chance. The Jaguars have produced one above-average game, statistically, all season. That’s tied for fewest in the NFL with the Lions and Patriots. Their four bad games are tied for second-most.
It’s reasonable to expect Lawrence to improve as the season goes on, and the Jaguars have produced an efficient run game with James Robinson.
29. New York Jets
If we look at just the snaps with Zach Wilson, the Jets have performed like the worst offense in the NFL. OK, not the worst — tied for the worst with the Houston Texans.
If we look at the snaps without Wilson — and this is obviously a small sample — they’ve performed like the seventh-best offense in the NFL! Again, it’s been only 197 snaps, but still.
I don’t know what the good news is or what the bad news is here if you’re a Jets fan. If you want to look on the bright side, it’s probably an encouraging sign that Mike LaFleur’s scheme can work with the current personnel if the offense gets competent quarterback play.
Maybe Wilson would benefit from staying on the sideline a little longer. Rookie quarterbacks usually struggle, but if Wilson isn’t ready and that leads to bad habits, the Jets could benefit from taking a detour from their initial plan.
30. Carolina Panthers
The Sam Darnold experiment has been a complete disaster.
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Carolina has some talent at the skill positions, but its offensive line ranks 29th in pass block win rate. It would be no surprise to see them turn to P.J. Walker.
31. Houston Texans
They’ve actually produced three great performances: against the Patriots, Browns, and Jaguars. But the Texans lead the NFL with five bad performances. In other words, there hasn’t been much of a middle ground. They’ve been a high-variance group, even though most of us just remember them being terrible most weeks.
The Texans rank 31st in pass block win rate, but with Tyrod Taylor back healthy, they could be at least a little better in the second half of the season.
32. Detroit Lions
They’ve tried to hide Jared Goff but have been mostly unsuccessful. The Lions are the most run-heavy team in the league, and Goff’s average pass has traveled 6.3 yards on average. That ranks 36th out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks.
The Lions are one of three teams without a single performance that qualifies as great, and their four bad games are tied for second-most. Detroit’s talent was bad entering the season, and then they got hit by injuries to make it even worse. There’s no reason to think they’re going to get much better. |
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COACHING HOT SEATS
Patrik Walker of CBSSports.com has his current coaching hot seats – and we’re not sure how many of them are really hot (since many of them are coming off big victories):
Just when you thought things couldn’t get any crazier in the NFL this season, we were all treated to a wild and crazy set of outcomes for Week 9 that saw several contenders get upset by what many viewed as lesser opponents. The coaches of those underdogs desperately needed wins, with some being on the 2021 hot seat, and others simply trying to avoid losing ground in their division and the playoff picture overall. The former are who we’re here to discuss though, with some shuffling having occurred on the CBS Sports hot seat rankings heading into Week 10.
Not everyone was able to move in the right direction, however, because things still look horrid in South Texas and some others are holding on to a string of yarn by way of a recent win or two they’ll need to parlay into more victories going forward.
Let’s take a look at the latest NFL coaching hot seat rankings, and who lands where with nine weeks in the books.
Keep an eye on: Joe Judge, Vic Fangio
It’s tough to argue that many are on a hotter seat than Judge in 2021, depending on how you view the mood of owner John Mara, although he left little room for interpretation going into the season. Mara noted this offseason that “everyone is on the hot seat” in New York — from Judge to general manager Dave Gettleman to himself. Including himself was cute and all from a PR standpoint, but we all know owners don’t fire themselves; they fire everyone else. And considering the wild and whacky training camp the Giants had, one that included a rash of swift and unexpected retirements and at least one practice brawl, Judge isn’t exactly off to a magnificent start in his second year as an NFL head coach.
Add in the rash of preseason retirements, a 1-4 start and the antics of rookie first-round pick Kadarius Toney in the Cowboys’ throttling of the Giants in Week 5 and, well, you had to wonder if Judge was losing a handle on things in New York. He’d land a bit of course correction in the dismantling of the Carolina Panthers in Week 7, and although he couldn’t win against a struggling Kansas City Chiefs squad, he did hand the Raiders a punch to the teeth in Week 9. It’s not enough to remove Judge from the hot seat, sitting at 3-6 on the season, but he now has a bye week to try and really cool his seat — if he can defeat Tom Brady in Tampa Bay.
As for Fangio, well, no coach in the league has moved up, down, off of, back onto and around on this list like the one in Denver. His seat couldn’t have been any hotter two weeks ago when the Broncos were losers of four straight. They’ve since downed the Washington Football Team, which is not enough to move the needle whatsoever, but combined with how they shocked the world in pummeling the Dallas Cowboys in Week 9 — one of the top NFC contenders — and at AT&T Stadium, and after trading away future Hall of Fame linebacker Von Miller, and without Bradley Chubb (IR); moving Fangio from the top five on this list to simply one of the two dishonorable mentions is in order.
Fangio has his team at 5-4 on the season and that’s impressive, all things considered, but his next several games will tell the true tale of if he should be safe going forward. Set to play both the Chargers and the Chiefs over the next three weeks, if he can pull off additional upsets to keep the wheel turned in the right direction, he’ll see his name disappear from this list — again — and maybe for good.
Giants next five: Buccaneers, Eagles, Dolphins, Chargers, Cowboys
Broncos next five: Eagles, Chargers, Chiefs, Lions, Bengals
5. Matt Nagy, Bears
Nagy moves down one notch on this list not because the Bears have suddenly started winning games, but because they’ve now become competitive — evidenced by how they nearly (and should’ve, but that’s another story) upset the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football. The fact remains that Nagy is not a bad coach, at least not in general. But it often takes more than love to keep a marriage going, and things are getting a bit thin in the Windy City air, largely due to Nagy’s stubbornness in the face of obvious answers at the quarterback position. To be fair, Nagy did not draft Mitchell Trubisky, nor did he make a trade for Nick Foles, so don’t put those in his lap.
He is responsible, however, for sticking with Trubisky as the starter for longer than he should’ve, and he would’ve done the same thing in 2021 with Andy Dalton — if not for Dalton suffering an injury early in the season. The injury effectively forced Nagy into starting rookie first-round pick Justin Fields, but Nagy was still drooling to get Dalton back into the starting position before eventually caving to the obvious and naming Fields the starter for the remainder of the season. There is still much to sharpen with Fields though, and things got off to a terrible start in that regard before now showing improvement. Continuing that upward trend with Fields will go a long way in helping the Bears to decide if Nagy is the coach they want tied to the future of Fields, or if he isn’t.
Winning games will help as well, and the sooner they can end their four-game slide, the better, with an extra week to prepare for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens and what’s a brutal pack of games over the next several weeks.
Next five: Ravens, Lions, Cardinals, Packers, Vikings
4. Brian Flores, Dolphins
It was all good just a year ago for Flores, who enjoyed a 10-6 finish in his second year as head coach. That was then and this is now, though, and currently the Dolphins are back to their losing ways in 2021, and questions surrounding Flores’ future are now starting to emerge. They’ve won just one game thus far this season — the regular season opener against the New England Patriots — and even that wasn’t entirely impressive, seeing as they scored only 17 points to escape with a one-point victory. They’ve since lost six straight to fall to 1-6 on the year, and although some would blame a bit of it on the loss of Tua Tagovailoa to a rib injury, the counterpoint is that Tagovailoa is also the reason for several of the losses (having also missed Week 9 with a fractured finger).
But here’s another troubling issue in Miami: they can’t stop anyone from scoring. Flores, a defensive-minded coach with a long resume of coaching up defensive players, is leading a club that allowed an average of 29.6 points per game heading into their Week 9 battle with the Houston Texans, bad enough for second-worst in the league. And considering they were only putting up 18.1 points per game, third-worst in the NFL as recently as a week ago, it’s pretty clear why they were struggling to get back into the win column. They finally did, sure, but against a listless Texans team that the Dolphins still couldn’t hang more than 17 points on.
Upset the Ravens in Week 10 and maybe this can start slowly turning around for Flores, but that’s a gargantuan ask for a team that would likely need to run the table only to find themselves narrowly miss the playoffs.
Next five: Ravens, Jets, Panthers, Giants, Jets
3. Matt Rhule, Panthers
As for Rhule, well, yikes.
Having already entered the season with a lot of expectations after the first failed experiment at QB in the post-Cam Newton era — namely Teddy Bridgewater — Rhule was tasked with rebuilding Sam Darnold, and after a 3-0 start to the season, the wheels are coming off of the former first-round pick. Darnold once again looks like the Jets version of himself, and not a quarterback who can even remotely carry a team without the aid of all-world running back Christian McCaffrey. Darnold was benched in the blowout loss to, guess who, Judge and the Giants in Week 7, and the Panthers went on a four-game losing streak that was broken with a Week 8 victory over the Atlanta Falcons, but the Panthers might have started a new one and in embarrassing fashion.
Their loss on Sunday to the New England Patriots was abysmal, and that’s actually doing a disservice to the word “abysmal.” Darnold is proving to be an unmitigated disaster at quarterback, and the defense is being asked to do more, only they’re struggling to, even with the debut/addition of Stephon Gilmore. Having finished 5-11 in his first year with the Panthers, if Rhule doubles down with a second losing season, there will be some difficult conversations to come in Charlotte, or maybe they’d be easy, depending upon just how horribly 2021 ends. The Teddy Bridgewater experiment failed and the Darnold experiment is failing wildly as well, so are the Panthers going to give Rhule a third try at a third QB in as many seasons?
Panthers next five: Cardinals, Washington, Dolphins, Falcons, Bills
2. Urban Meyer, Jaguars
You can’t overstate how big of a win it was for Meyer to defeat the Buffalo Bills, holding them to only nine points in the process. It was much needed for a club that couldn’t get out of its own way until it defeated the Miami Dolphins in London in Week 6, or rather a team that couldn’t stop its head coach from getting in the way.
When the Jaguars found a way to pull out a narrow win over the Dolphins in London going into their bye week, it became the first good thing Meyer has done for the organization, although it felt more attributable to Trevor Lawrence and the defense than the questionable play-calling of Meyer. Stopping a 20-game losing streak is never a bad thing, admittedly, but if you think it’s enough to get Meyer out of this No. 1 seat, you’re crazy. Given all he’s already put the Jaguars through, he’s going to need a lot more wins before his seat cools. If there’s a blueprint for how to do everything right when taking the reins as a first-time NFL head coach, you’d have to presume there’s an antithesis that lists steps for virtually guaranteeing you’ll be fired before you get a shot at Year 2. If the latter didn’t exist before, it does now, and Meyer is the author.
Anything Meyer could do wrong after joining the Jacksonville Jaguars this offseason, he’s either done it, is doing it or will probably get it done in the next several weeks. The Ohio party controversy was simply another feather in his controversy-dipped cap, but the dysfunction began with the hiring, defense of, and immediate firing of Iowa strength and conditioning coach Chris Doyle — a man with a history of racist accusations against him. Things continued to spiral out of control, but having now won two of their last three and one of those wins being a massive upset over an AFC frontrunner, Meyer slides down from the No. 1 spot on this list, for now.
1. David Culley, Texans
When you’re finding ways to be worse than the Jaguars, you’ve got to start cleaning house … again.
Culley was able to find the fire escape on this list after an impressive win to open the regular season, but the Texans are once again back to their abysmal ways. It’s not entirely his fault, seeing as he had been without quarterback Tyrod Taylor since the Week 2 loss against the Cleveland Browns due to injury. But with Taylor spending most of this season on injured reserve, it was Culley’s job to coach up the next man to win games, and it’s simply not happened. The Texans have now lost eight in a row, and they show zero signs of life. They’ve been thumped by nearly every team they’ve come up against, and while they hoped the return of Taylor from injured reserve would help, they were wrong — the Dolphins sending them home with another messy loss.
Culley said weeks ago that his team “needs a lift,” and that’s disheartening when it comes from the person tasked with figuring out how to provide said lift. Taylor returned to practice in Week 8, but didn’t hit the ground running in his return. Considering he might be Culley’s only hope of not being a one-and-done head coach, there’s an immense amount of pressure on the veteran quarterback that is only made worse by the Deshaun Watson drama swirling in the background. If you can point at two things (there’s always at least one) that appears to be positive in Houston, you’ve got a rare talent and should probably go mine for gold in the Great Smoky Mountains or something.
This is another lost season in Houston, and the only question now is how bad will it truly get under a first-time head coach who is in way over his head here. Oh, and up next are the Tennessee Titans in Week 11.
Good luck with that. |
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