AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
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If The Season Ended Today in the AFC
W-L Div Conf
Baltimore North 5-1 1 4-1
LA Chargers West 4-2 1 3-1
Tennessee South 4-2 1 3-1
Buffalo East 4-2 1 3-2
Cincinnati WC1 4-2 2 2-0
Las Vegas WC2 4-2 2 4-1
Denver WC3 3-3 3 2-3
Kansas City 3-3 4 1-3
Cleveland 3-3 3 1-2
Pittsburgh 3-3 4 2-2
The Bills tumble to 4th with their loss at Tennessee. Speaking of the Titans, they have a 2-game lead in the AFC South, just like the Bills do in the East.
Cincinnati and the Chargers are in the playoffs while the AFC’s three biggest brands – Kansas City, Pittsburgh and New England are all on the outside looking in. New England and Indianapolis are the 2-4 teams sitting one game below the line.
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No surprise that ESPN’s projections find the Bengals, Cardinals, Chargers and Cowboys to be the four teams most exceeding preseason expectations. Bill Barnwell ofESPN.com:
Let’s evaluate the four teams whose chances to make the 2021 NFL playoffs have improved the most since the start of the season, as measured by ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
A lot can change over the course of six weeks, and in a league in which the Titans can lose to the Jets and beat the Bills in the course of two weeks, it’s not always easy to contextualize the big picture. I’ll try to do that here to get a sense of what has happened to these four breakout teams and what might change for them, both positively and negatively, in the weeks to come.
We will put an edited version of his analysis in the appropriated team slot.
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NFC NORTH
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DETROIT
With the Rams up next, Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com picks up hints that unconventional coach Dan Campbell might be thinking of turning to QB DAVID BLAUGH as in “wow.”
The evidence is hiding in plain sight. The question is whether Lions coach Dan Campbell will actually pull the trigger.
On Sunday, Campbell called out Jared Goff by name, publicly. On Monday, Campbell said he’s “going to shake things up here a little bit.” On Tuesday, it’s possible that the shakeup will encompass the quarterback position.
It would definitely shake things up a little bit to bench Goff, especially with the team’s next game being a trip to L.A. to face the Rams.
The Rams, who know Goff better than anyone. The Rams. who couldn’t wait to get rid of Goff after the 2020 season ended. The Rams, who surely can come up with a plan for exploiting Goff’s various weaknesses.
The Rams didn’t fall out of love with Goff. They plummeted down the stairs. It happened only 19 months after foolishly paying him $33.5 million per year on a second contract. And they managed to unload the deal in a way that made it less obvious to everyone (including owner Stan Kroenke) that, as a practical matter, they gave the Lions a first-round pick to take Goff’s ridiculously inflated contract.
The Lions have to date participated in the grift, acting like Goff is worth the money and worthy of the franchise quarterback label. He’s not, on either count. The question now is whether he’s good enough to keep David Blough on the sidelines.
Campbell’s old-school style doesn’t mesh with Goff’s personality and demeanor. That’s obvious. The Lions didn’t make the trade for the player; they made the trade for the picks — two first-rounders and a third-rounder in exchange for giving up Matthew Stafford and taking on the Goff cash and cap obligation. Campbell was willing to give Goff a try, since it’s not as if the Lions had a better option lurking on the roster.
Most thought Goff would get a full year to show what he can do. With the Lions now 0-6, maybe it makes sense to see what they have in Blough before they start looking at other options for next year.
Or maybe this is Campbell’s last-ditch effort to get more out of Goff. While it’s regarded as bad form in some circles to air out the dirty laundry at a podium (and Campbell definitely paused before launching into his Sunday critique of Goff), the truth could be that Campbell is at his wit’s end, that he’s tried everything to get Goff to perform at the level the team needs.
Maybe Campbell hopes that a pissed-off Goff will have a better chance of competing with the Rams, and that he won’t end up being systematically exposed by the Rams for the average, random quarterback that, truth be told, Goff is.
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GREEN BAY
Help is on the way for Green Bay’s offensive line. Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com:
Not all of the Green Bay Packers’ injury news on Monday was bad, especially when it came to All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari.
The protector of Aaron Rodgers’ blind side is expected to practice this week for the first time since he tore the ACL in his left knee during a practice on New Year’s Eve. Bakhtiari remains on the physically unable to perform list, but it opens a three-week window in which he can practice without playing.
It’s unlikely he would play this Sunday against Washington, and with a short week after that leading into the Thursday game at Arizona, that game also might be out of the question. But it could set up a return for the Nov. 7 game at Kansas City, which would be a little more than 10 months after his injury. That’s typically the earliest the Packers allow an ACL-rehab player to play.
“When you’re coming off a pretty significant injury, you don’t want to just throw somebody out there,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said Monday. “We want to make sure that, No. 1, physically his knee is in great shape and he’s not at further risk of doing more damage to it. And also I think there’s a confidence factor that you develop by playing football, whether that’s in practice, so there is a ramp-up period.”
This is the first possible week Bakhtiari was eligible to begin practicing, so it’s a good sign that he’s going to work right away, most likely beginning with Wednesday’s practice.
It’s possible that Bakhtiari could play before rookie center Josh Myers returns from the knee injury he sustained in Sunday’s win at Chicago. Myers left after four plays, and although LaFleur confirmed Monday that it’s not a season-ending injury, Myers is likely to miss multiple games. However, his replacement on Sunday, Lucas Patrick, graded out as the Packers’ top offensive lineman against the Bears, according to LaFleur.
The offense could get another key player back this week in wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has been battling a hamstring injury. He’s eligible to come off injured reserve after missing the requisite three games. The Packers’ No. 2 receiver was seen running hard before pregame warmups two weeks ago, but LaFleur wouldn’t commit to a return this week.
On defense, outside linebacker Preston Smith, who dropped out after eight plays Sunday because of an oblique injury, is in the day-to-day category, but the Packers are typically cautious about players with soft-tissue injuries. Then there are the two opening-day starting cornerbacks, Jaire Alexander and Kevin King, both with shoulder injuries.
King did not play against the Bears, but LaFleur said injured reserve (and missing three games) likely isn’t necessary. However, he could not rule out season-ending surgery for Alexander, who is currently on IR trying to rehab and return without an operation.
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MINNESOTA
It is hamstring time for veteran CBs with new teams. First, CB RICHARD SHERMAN of the Buccaneers, now CB PATRICK PETERSON. Courtney Cronin of ESPN:
The Minnesota Vikings placed starting cornerback Patrick Peterson on injured reserve Monday because of a hamstring injury.
Peterson will miss at least the Vikings’ next three games with the move. Coach Mike Zimmer said he doesn’t believe the eight-time Pro Bowl selection’s injury would end his season.
Peterson left the Vikings’ 34-28 overtime victory over the Carolina Panthers late in the fourth quarter because of cramping after defending against DJ Moore on a pass that fell incomplete. He didn’t return for the overtime period.
Peterson was replaced in the game by Cameron Dantzler, who presumably would fill Peterson’s role in the starting lineup while he is on IR.
Asked how he feels about the rest of his cornerback group in Peterson’s absence, Zimmer said: “I feel fine. Patrick’s played really well. We’ll miss him for sure, but Dantzler’s done decent and so has [Bashaud] Breeland.”
Peterson signed with the Vikings this offseason after spending the first 10 seasons of his career with the Arizona Cardinals.
The Vikings improved to 3-3 with their victory Sunday.
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
Bill Barnwell on if Dallas really is improved:
Dallas Cowboys (5-1)
Preseason FPI playoff chances: 56.2%
Current FPI playoff chances: 97%
Difference: Plus-40.8%
The Cowboys are weird, man. Their offense has been great, but they’ve had to be spectacular at times just to overcome their own mistakes. Everybody talking about the Cowboys discusses their offense, and that’s understandable, but the defense has kept them alive at times. Sunday’s win over the Patriots was the perfect encapsulation of how frustrating and fascinating this team can be, often during the same game or even during the same drive. What a strange six weeks.
Let’s start with that defense. Led by Trevon Diggs’ spectacular start to the season, the Cowboys have 14 takeaways through six games. During last season’s dismal 2-4 start to the campaign, they produced … three takeaways in six games. They have at least two takeaways in each of their first six games so far. The only other time that has happened across the past 30 years was with the 2006 “They are who we thought they were” Bears. Diggs’ seven interceptions have obviously led the way there, with the Cowboys picking off 4.8% of opposing passes so far.
That’s probably not going to keep up. They also have seen a related element of their game regress way past the mean versus what we saw a year ago. In 2020, the Cowboys were a disaster on offense when it came to losing fumbles. Including their work on defense, 14 fumbles hit the ground in their games. They recovered just four of them, a clip of 28.6%. Ezekiel Elliott fumbled five times in six games, losing four of them. A melting defense didn’t help their chances, but they put that defense in impossible positions.
Through six games this season, Dallas has recovered nine of its 13 fumbles (69.2%). The fumbles it has lost on offense have been at the worst possible times. Two have come inside the opposition’s 5-yard line, including on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line against the Patriots on Sunday. A third came inside its own 5-yard line and was returned by the Eagles for a touchdown. The Cowboys won’t recover fumbles as frequently as they have through the first six weeks, but the fumbles they do lose won’t cost them six points as frequently as they have so far.
As you might suspect from an offense that has already lost two fumbles inside their foes’ 5, the Cowboys haven’t been particularly good in the red zone. Usually, when I talk about red zone performance, I’m mentioning teams that are OK outside the 20-yard line and spectacular inside of it as evidence that they’ll fall back in the red zone in the weeks or season to come.
This is the opposite case. On the first 80 yards of their trek toward the end zone, the Cowboys have been a force. They average 0.15 expected points per play, the third-best mark in football. Across the final 20 yards, owing to those fumbles, they rank 21st in EPA per play. There’s no reason this will keep happening. Through Week 6 of 2020, for example, the Saints ranked third in EPA per play outside the 20 and 31st inside the red zone. After Week 6? They were ninth in EPA per play outside the red zone and 11th inside of it. Dallas is too good on offense to be this bad in the red zone.
One way for this team to fail to live up to expectations on offense would be if coach Mike McCarthy interferes with the decision-making. Despite suggestions that McCarthy had studied analytics during his year away from the league, the coach who has made late-game decisions for the Cowboys looks a lot like the guy who was happy to take Aaron Rodgers off the field in the game’s biggest moments during his time in Green Bay.
It hasn’t yet hurt the Cowboys this season. In Week 2 against the Chargers, with the offense moving the ball in a tie game inside the final minute, McCarthy decided to settle for a long field goal. Facing a first-and-10 from the Chargers’ 45-yard line with 36 seconds left to go, Dak Prescott threw a four-yard pass and stopped the clock. With one timeout, McCarthy then handed the ball to Elliott for four yards and let the clock run down to four seconds before having Greg Zuerlein attempt a 56-yard field goal, which succeeded.
McCarthy was back at it against the Patriots. The Cowboys didn’t do well in short-yardage situations early in the game, and it clearly weighed on the veteran coach. A 10-yard scramble left his team two yards short of a first down in the fourth quarter. Trailing 21-20 with 2:47 and three timeouts to go, McCarthy sent out Zuerlein for a 51-yard field goal, which the veteran kicker missed. Ben Baldwin’s model suggested that McCarthy’s decision cost the Cowboys three points of win expectancy with the wrong choice. It got lost in the shuffle after Dallas promptly produced a pick-six and gave up a 75-yard touchdown in a matter of minutes.
What does all of this add up to? Likely something close to what our priors would have been before the season about this team with a slightly better defense. Diggs isn’t going to intercept a pass every week, although it has been incredible to watch. The pass rush has been fueled by Randy Gregory, which can’t be considered much more than a bonus given his history of missed games, but it should be better once DeMarcus Lawrence returns from injury.
The offense is very good and should get better in the red zone. McCarthy’s game management, almost inevitably, will hurt them in an important moment. With the rest of the NFC East a combined 5-13, the Cowboys might not face a truly important moment until January.
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NEW YORK GIANTS
Embattled coach Joe Judge see better days ahead. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
The Giants got blown out again on Sunday, which dropped their record to 1-5 in what’s beginning to look like another lost season for the NFC East club.
That start comes after head coach Joe Judge piloted the Giants to a 6-10 record in 2020 and the overall record has led to a lot of disgruntled Giants fans. Boos could be heard throughout Sunday’s home loss and large swaths of empty seats could be seen at MetLife Stadium after a halftime ceremony honoring the Super Bowl XLVI championship team wrapped up.
After the loss, Judge said that neither he nor anyone else on the team is a quitter and that there’s a lot of football still to play this year. The latter part might have sounded like a threat to those who have been watching the team closely, but Judge vowed that those who stick with the team will be rewarded with better days at an undetermined point in the future.
“This is definitely going to get better. . . . I don’t know what kind of guarantee [fans] want, but I can assure everyone out there as a Giants fan, and they want to know when it’s going to turn, I can tell them we’re working tirelessly to make sure we get this thing turned in the right direction, not just for short-term results, but for long-term success,” Judge said, via Tom Rock and Bob Glauber of Newsday.
While players like Leonard Williams may be bothered by the booing, the apathy illustrated by the empty seats is a bigger problem for the Giants if they’re trying to sell patience after making the playoffs once since that Super Bowl title.
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WASHINGTON
We thought the 650,000 emails represented emails obtained from many different people who worked for Washington’s football team – from Jay Gruden, from Dan Snyder (although he doesn’t do email), from the equipment manager, from the coaches named as harrassers, from everyone. Mike Florio now says the 650,000 were just from Bruce Allen alone:
Many questions remain regarding the 650,000 emails from which a handful were leaked in recent days, ending the coaching career of Jon Gruden and creating at a minimum discomfort for NFL general counsel Jeff Pash. One of the questions now has an answer.
Where did the 650,000 emails come from? Per the NFL, they were sent to and from former Washington president Bruce Allen on his team account, and they also were “outside the scope of the workplace culture investigation.”
Allen worked for the team from December 17, 2009 through December 31, 2019. So that’s an average of 65,000 emails sent or received per year. Which works out to 178 sent or received per day.
The answer as to the nature and origin of the 650,000 emails raises another important question. How many other emails were sent to and from current and former WFT employees during the period covered by the investigation? The NFL, through the investigation conducted by attorney Beth Wilkinson, did not review any of those.
Finally (for now), the fact that the Bruce Allen emails fall “outside the scope of the workplace culture investigation” undercuts the NFL’s stated reason for keeping the 650,000 Bruce Allen emails secret. The league continues to hide behind the notion that everything must be kept confidential in deference to the current and former WFT employees who came forward and provided information as part of the workplace culture investigation. If the 650,000 Bruce Allen emails fell outside the scope of the workplace culture investigation, there’s no reason to hide them.
Putting it more accurately, there’s no legitimate reason. For now, the NFL is relying on an illegitimate reason for refusing to release all of the emails for inspection, scrutiny, and any/all consequences that would flow therefrom.
But if the emails fell “outside the scope of the investigation” – if they were chatty missives to his brother the former U.S. senator or to other political figures or to complete non-entities – why does Florio and the media have a right to see them? Do we have the same right to see Florio’s emails?
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NFC SOUTH
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ATLANTA
One in, one out on the Falcons offensive line. The team activated G JOSH ANDREWS from injured reserve and placed starting right tackle KALEB McGARYon the NFL’s reserve/COVID-19 list.
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WR CALVIN RIDLEY is back after time off for a “personal matter.” D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
Calvin Ridley, the Falcons’ leading receiver who did not play or travel with the team to London for the game against the New York Jets, returned to the team and practiced on Monday.
The Falcons described Ridley’s situation as a “personal matter.” He worked with the offense during the open portion of practice.
“Due to a personal matter, Calvin Ridley will not travel to the Falcons game in London this weekend,” the Falcons said in a statement released before the team’s planned departure. “We are in support of Calvin during this time and will respect his privacy on the matter.”
Ridley has caught 27 of 42 targets (64.2%) for 255 yards and one touchdown this season.
With Ridley and Russell Gage out of the lineup, wide receivers Olamide Zaccheaus and Tajae Sharpe started for the Falcons in the win against the Jets. Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts had a breakout game with nine catches for 119 yards and a touchdown.
In addition to Ridley, Gage (ankle) and defensive tackle Marlon Davidson (ankle) were back at practice.
Cornerback and punt returner Avery Williams (hamstring) and free safety Erik Harris (calf) were not practicing during the open portion Monday.
Before leaving the team for his personal matter, Ridley had not been playing well.
Falcons coach Arthur Smith didn’t sugarcoat things when asked about Ridley’s performance against Washington, when he was targeted 13 times in the 34-30 loss. Ridley caught seven passes for 80 yards. Ridley had a couple of dropped passes and a couple that were knocked away by the defense. He didn’t appear particularly comfortable running across the middle of the field early in the game.
“Up and down,” Smith said after the game. “We expect more, and Calvin knows that. I’m not telling you anything I don’t tell the players. … He’s one of our top guys. He’s one of our captains. … Nobody has higher expectations than he does for himself than we do. That’s why I call his number. I believe in Calvin. I called it, we can all play better.”
While Ridley has not had an 100-yard receiving game this season, he’s on pace to catch 108 passes and 1,020 yards over 16 games.
Gage has just five catches for 28 yards.
While Ridley leads the Falcons in catches with 27, Pitts leads the Falcons in yards gained with 308 and Cordarrelle Patterson leads with four receiving touchdowns.
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NEW ORLEANS
The Saints are going to get WR MICHAEL THOMAS back in a few weeks. Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:
Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas is eligible to return to action for the Saints this week, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.
Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reports that Thomas is still a couple of weeks away from returning to action. Once he gets on the practice field, he can work out with the team for three weeks before they have to activate him or shut him down for the season.
Thomas had ankle surgery in July and his decision to wait until that point caused some animosity between him and the Saints. There was talk about a possible trade, but the two sides appeared to mend their relationship later in the summer.
The Saints rank 31st in the league in passing yards and Thomas’ return could help them become more productive through the air in the second half of the season. For now, though, they’ll have to keep rolling with Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris, Ty Montgomery, Chris Hogan, Kenny Stills, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey.
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NFC WEST
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ARIZONA
ESPN.com projects the Cardinals as already having a 99% chance to make the playoffs. Bill Barnwell on why that is so:
Arizona Cardinals (6-0)
Preseason FPI playoff chances: 32.2%
Current FPI playoff chances: 99.2%
Difference: Plus-67%
The Cardinals! Projected in most places to be the worst team in the (admittedly very good) NFC West, Kliff Kingsbury’s team is a game and a half up on the Rams and way out front of the 49ers and Seahawks through six weeks. Only two of its games were close, with Arizona beating the 49ers 17-10 and topping the Vikings 34-33 when Minnesota kicker Greg Joseph missed a last-second field goal. The teams the Cardinals have beaten have gone a combined 16-12 when they haven’t faced Arizona this season, so it’s not as if they’ve played an easy schedule, either. This team is legit.
I don’t think it should be any surprise that quarterback Kyler Murray is playing really well, so to understand why the Cards are off to their 6-0 start, we need to turn to what people were worried about with them heading into the season to see how and why they have exceeded expectations. What could have kept them from looking as good as they have?
Injuries. Murray was an MVP candidate during the first half of the 2020 season, but shoulder and ankle injuries slowed him down during the second half. The Cardinals fell in kind, as they averaged 20.6 points per game and went 2-5 to close out the season. The defense also dealt with injuries throughout the season; the Cardinals ranked 28th in adjusted games lost throughout the 2020 campaign.
While injuries are beginning to strike the Cardinals, they’ve been much healthier in 2021. Jordan Phillips has been their only long-term absence among expected starters. Kelvin Beachum missed two games, but injuries didn’t really hit the Cardinals hard until Sunday’s win over the Browns. In addition to Maxx Williams going down for the season and Rodney Hudson moving to injured reserve, they were down Chandler Jones, Zach Allen and Kingsbury because of COVID-19 protocols. Thankfully for Arizona, the Browns were down five offensive starters and had several more suffer injuries during the game.
Every team has to deal with injuries — and they’re unpredictable by nature — but the Cardinals have been in good shape so far. Consider that they were expecting Marcus Gilbert and Robert Alford to start in 2019 and 2020 and neither suited up for a single regular-season game either time. Before this week, the players the Cardinals were counting on have generally been available this season. That has been a huge positive.
The back seven of the defense. On paper, Arizona’s cornerbacks did not look particularly imposing to start the season. Alford hadn’t played in two years. Byron Murphy had been a solid slot corner, but the Cardinals were projecting to start rookie fourth-rounder Marco Wilson on the outside. First-round picks typically struggle as a rookies, let alone midround picks. The only fourth-round corner over the past decade who was a Week 1 starter and stuck throughout the season was Bashaud Breeland for Washington in 2014. Cardinals fans likely remember third-rounder Brandon Williams being inserted immediately into the starting lineup in 2016, quickly losing his confidence and never starting again.
Well, while Wilson hasn’t been good, the other guys have more than made up the difference. Alford, who wasn’t playing all that well back before he missed two years of football, has allowed a 67.5 passer rating as the nearest defender in coverage this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Murphy has been even better, in part because he has picked off three passes in six games. Passes in their direction have produced minus-20.3 expected points added (EPA) so far this season. Wilson has given up four touchdowns and allowed 24.2 EPA, but the Cardinals have to be happy with how their cornerbacks have played.
The linebackers certainly had a better résumé, but it wasn’t clear how things would go. Isaiah Simmons, the No. 8 overall pick in 2020, had been virtually unplayable early during his rookie season, and while he improved as the season went on, the Cards were hoping he would take a big leap. They then used their 2021 first-round pick on fellow linebacker Zaven Collins and immediately installed him as their starter, which led 2020 starter Jordan Hicks to request a trade.
A funny thing happened on the way to the season. Despite the Cardinals telling Hicks that there would be no competition for the starting job in camp, he beat out Collins in August and has been an every-down player. Hicks and Simmons have quietly been one of the league’s best linebacker duos so far this season. The Cardinals were once a defense every fantasy player targeted for easy points from tight ends, but they have allowed a league-low 5.2 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends in 2021. Hicks and Simmons have been excellent against the pass, with opposing quarterbacks costing their team 13.8 points of EPA on throws in their direction. Collins hasn’t been needed in more than an ancillary role.
With physical playmakers at all levels, the Cardinals have been able to rack up takeaways. Coordinator Vance Joseph’s defense has already forced 13 takeaways. That’s a huge increase for a defense that produced only 17 in 2019 and 21 in 2020. The offense has generated a league-best 55 points off turnovers and has done a better job of protecting the football. The Cards’ turnover margin of plus-8 is the second best in football.
To be fair, though, the Cardinals have been fortunate in terms of their defensive timing. On first and second down, they’ve been a league-average defense, with opposing teams producing .04 expected points per snap. That ranks 16th in the league, which is just fine. The Cardinals can win with a very good offense and a league-average defense.
On third and fourth down, however, they’ve morphed into the 2002 Buccaneers. The Cardinals are producing minus-0.54 expected points per play on the money downs. To put that in context, that’s the fourth-best defense we’ve seen on those downs through the first six weeks of the season over the past decade. If they were a dominant defense on first and second down, it would be one thing, but it’s tough to believe that a league-average defense on early downs can keep being this dominant on third and fourth down over the remainder of the season.
The weapons. Any team would be happy to start its list of weapons on offense with DeAndre Hopkins, but there were fair questions to be had about the guys after the star wideout. Christian Kirk had struggled to build off a promising rookie season in 2018. Rondale Moore, a second-round pick in April, had major injury issues at Purdue and was entering the NFL as one of its shortest players at 5-foot-7. A.J. Green, who turned 33 in July, looked like he might be done in a miserable year for the Bengals.
Weapons haven’t been a problem for the Cardinals this season. It’s sad to say about a player who is going to be a deserved first-ballot Hall of Famer, but the reality is that moving on from Larry Fitzgerald made life easier. He spent virtually all of 2019 and 2020 in the slot and didn’t offer any sort of big-play threat for Arizona. His 151 targets in the slot over that time frame generated a total of just 9.7 EPA, an average of 0.06 EPA per target. The other Cardinals players generated 45.8 EPA on 240 targets out of the slot, which was more than three times as many expected points added per target.
Fitzgerald’s departure has opened up the slot for Kirk, who has consistently looked like a much better player when getting to work inside. The fourth-year wideout had a couple of drops in Sunday’s win, but Kirk already has 24 catches for 339 yards and a touchdown out of the slot. He has generated 27.6 EPA out of the slot this season, and the Cardinals as a group have produced 43.4 EPA on just 59 targets. What was mostly a problem for Arizona over the past two seasons has suddenly become a problem for opposing defenses.
The newfound speed out of the slot and the addition of Moore have created more big opportunities for the Cardinals. Over the second half of 2020, they ranked 19th in terms of plays gaining 20-plus yards. So far this season, though, they rank fifth. We can’t chalk all of this up to swapping Fitzgerald out of the lineup for more speed, since Green isn’t really a burner on the outside at this point of his career. But the Cardinals’ players around Hopkins fit much better than they did a year ago.
Can they keep this up? Yes and no. They’re not going to stand on their heads on third down all season. Injuries are going to be more of a concern as the campaign goes along. They could sorely use a corner to replace Wilson in the starting lineup. With Colt McCoy as the backup, they need Murray to stay healthy all season. They’re probably not going 17-0.
At 6-0, though, the Cardinals have already done enough to virtually ensure a trip to the postseason for the first time since 2015. They have enough talent on both sides of the ball to compete with any team, and they’ve been one of the league’s best teams from snap to snap through six weeks.
Interesting to note the Cardinals are deemed to have improved by subtracting aging LARRY FITZGERALD. But are they 99% already? They could be on the outside at 9-8. Could they only go 3-8 in the 11 games remaining? Well, they do have Houston and Detroit on the schedule.
WEEK 7 · Houston Texans
WEEK 8 · Green Bay Packers
WEEK 9 · at San Francisco 49ers
WEEK 10 · Carolina Panthers
WEEK 11 · at Seattle Seahawks
WEEK 12 BYE
WEEK 13 at Chicago Bears
WEEK 14 Los Angeles Rams
WEEK 15 · at Detroit Lions
WEEK 16 · Indianapolis Colts
WEEK 17 · at Dallas Cowboys
WEEK 18 · Seattle Seahawks
Indy is at least an 80% win chance, we would think that’s 9 wins. Will the Seahawks be better in 5 weeks time? What kind of Panthers team will we see in Week 11?
If Murray stays healthy, we think 7-4 for 13-4 is reasonable. Wins over Houston, Detroit and the Colts, 4-4 in the other eight games.
So maybe not 99%, but north of 95% for the playoffs.
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SAN FRANCISCO
QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO is back at practice as QB TREY LANCE sits out.
Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was back on the 49ers’ practice field Monday morning, and appears to be in line to return to the starting lineup for the team’s Week 7 game against the Indianapolis Colts at Levi’s Stadium.S
Garoppolo sat out the 49ers’ Week 5 game against the Arizona Cardinals due to a right calf injury. Rookie quarterback Trey Lance made his first NFL start.
But Lance sustained a left knee sprain in the 49ers’ 17-10 loss to the unbeaten Cardinals. He was not on the practice field Monday, as the team returned after their bye week to begin preparations to face the Colts on Sunday Night Football.
Coach Kyle Shanahan indicated last week that Garoppolo would return to the 49ers’ starting lineup when he was healthy enough to play. Garoppolo and the 49ers will look to snap a three-game losing streak when they face the Colts on Sunday.
Garoppolo started the first four games of the season. The 49ers were 2-1 in the three full games in which he played. He sustained an injury to his calf in the first half of the 49ers’ Week 4 game against the Seattle Seahawks. He did not return after halftime with the 49ers and Seahawks tied at seven.
Lance played the second half of the 49ers’ eventual 28-21 loss to the Seahawks. He started and played the entire game against the Cardinals. The next morning he reported soreness in his left knee. The injury was expected to keep him sidelined for one or two weeks.
If Lance is not cleared to play Sunday night, Nate Sudfeld would be elevated from the practice squad to serve as the backup quarterback.
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AFC WEST
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DENVER
Veteran scribe Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com fears for the health of QB TEDDY BRIDGEWATER:
The picture of Denver Broncos quarterback Teddy Bridgewater walking gingerly back to the team’s locker room after Sunday’s loss to the Las Vegas Raiders was worth a 1,000 words or 17 hits, take your pick.
Bridgewater had the kind of contusion-inducing day that won’t be conducive to a productive workplace environment if it’s repeated very often.
“Definitely, that’s on us,” said Broncos center Lloyd Cushenberry III. “That’s our job, to protect whoever is back there. If he gets hit that many times, obviously something is wrong. We have to fix that fast.”
Yes, they do. Especially because their next opponent — the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night (8:20 p.m. ET, Fox) — employs Myles Garrett, who was the NFL’s sack leader heading into this weekend’s games. The Raiders sacked Bridgewater five times, three of those from Maxx Crosby, while also battering the quarterback 17 times overall during their 34-24 victory on Sunday.
Bridgewater was sacked or hit on 30% of his dropbacks. That math simply won’t work for the Broncos’ offense or Bridgewater’s health.
When Bridgewater was asked following Sunday’s loss if it was more difficult emotionally or physically in that moment, he said: “It’s a combination of both … just got to find a way to tough it all out. Ninety-six hours is all we got, just have to find a way to tough it all out.”
In the Broncos’ three consecutive losses, Bridgewater has been sacked nine times combined and was knocked from the loss to the Baltimore Ravens just before halftime with a concussion. He has now thrown four interceptions in the past two games combined under duress after not throwing any over the first four. The Broncos have gone from 28, 30 and 37 rushing attempts in their three wins to 17, 18 and 23 in the three losses.
“Teddy hasn’t been a turnover guy … once you become an unbalanced offense the chance of throwing interceptions go up,” said Broncos coach Vic Fangio. “… You get in a throw-it mode that early in the game, [hits on the quarterback] are the risk you run.”
In the past two losses, especially, the Broncos have trailed early — 24-6 in the third quarter to the Steelers and 24-10 in the third quarter to the Raiders. That has forced the Broncos into a throw-first posture, which has taken the things the Broncos have done best with Bridgewater, such as the play-action passing game, largely off the table. And it has put him squarely in harm’s way.
After Sunday’s loss, Bridgewater said he contributed to the problem by hanging in the pocket longer than he should have, trying to make a play that could help the Broncos attempt some kind of comeback.
“[I was] just trying to exhaust the progression,” Bridgewater said. “… I probably did hold the ball a little too long on some of those.”
While the Ravens created pressure with a variety of fronts to go with a vast assortment of blitzes to harass Bridgewater, the Raiders were at the other end of the spectrum. They largely stuck to their four-man front as Crosby consistently forced the issue.
“They do a good job creating pressure with just four rushers, that’s what they’re good at, that’s what they’ve been good at,” said Broncos tight end Noah Fant. “… We just got to [be] better in that aspect, honestly there’s no other explanation for it. They made plays, we made mistakes.”
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LAS VEGAS
Greg Olsen is the new play caller in Vegas, and he will have a new toy to play with as QB MARCUS MARIOTA comes off IR:
The Las Vegas Raiders activated backup quarterback Marcus Mariota off injured reserve on Saturday, as interim coach Rich Bisaccia hinted at Friday afternoon.
“He’s really had a good week of practice,” Bisaccia said at the time. “He looks, really, 100 percent healthy. So, we are excited about what could possibly happen here over the next few days.”
The Raiders (3-2) meet the Denver Broncos (3-2) in an AFC West matchup of two teams riding two-game losing streaks.
Mariota has played one snap for the Raiders this season, breaking off a 31-yard run in the season-opening win against the Baltimore Ravens. But he was shaken up on the play and went on IR with a quadriceps injury.
Then-coach Jon Gruden lamented Mariota’s loss as Gruden had scripted packages to take advantage of Mariota’s running ability. Starter Derek Carr had joked in training camp that he wanted to catch a TD pass from Mariota.
But with Gruden gone, having resigned Monday in the wake of his email controversy, offensive playcalling duties now fall to offensive coordinator Greg Olson, who had been more of an adviser to Gruden and buffer between Gruden and Carr.
Olson was the offensive playcaller during Carr’s rookie season of 2014.
“I think anytime you change playcallers there may be a different flow,” Olson said this week, “but we feel very good as a staff about the offense that we have in place and the way we go about implementing a game plan and the process at which we work during the week. We’ve kept that process the same this week. Again, we are just a man short.”
Mariota, 27, has had a hard time staying healthy since signing as a free agent with the Raiders in March of 2020. The 2014 Heisman Trophy winner and No. 2 pick of the 2015 NFL draft was recovering from ankle and shoulder injuries when he reported to training camp last summer and then injured a pectoral muscle, which resulted in a trip to IR. He appeared in one game last season, in relief of an injured Carr, and nearly led the Raiders to an overtime victory against the Los Angeles Chargers, completing 17 of 28 passes for 226 yards and TD while running for 88 yards and a score on nine carries.
He restructured the initial two-year, $17.6 million contract he signed with Las Vegas this offseason and took a pay cut, a one-year deal worth $3.5 million but including a no-trade clause. He had been scheduled to make $10.725 million this season.
The Raiders also activated defensive end Kendal Vickers from the practice squad.
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We know the “what” of the Jon Gruden leak and subsequent firing. We don’t know the “why” and Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com acts like someone who would like to publish it even though the New York Times did not see it as news fit to print.
Jon Gruden got what he deserved, there’s no question about that. However, did he deserve to get what he got at the specific moment that he got it?
More importantly, did the Raiders deserve to have to endure the Gruden controversy during football season?
It’s a fair question. It’s an important question. The timing of the decision to alert the Raiders to the Gruden situation and, quite possibly (if not probably), to pressure the Raiders to fire Gruden or force him to quit created a serious and significant competitive issue for the Raiders and, in turn, for multiple other teams.
In hindsight, it’s appropriate to wonder whether and to what extent the situation impeded the team’s ability to prepare for and to compete with the Bears. That obviously impacted the Raiders’ ability to move from 3-1 to 4-1. It also helped the Bears move from 2-2 to 3-2; if the Bears make it into the playoffs thanks to that one extra win that could/should have been a loss, that helps them and hurts whichever team ends up as the No. 8 seed in the NFC.
At some point during an investigation that began in July 2020 and that resulted in punishment being announced on July 1, 2021, Beth Wilkinson’s team discovered the Gruden emails. So when did the Gruden emails first surface, and what happened next?
Anyone conducting a reasonable reading of the emails would believe that they required serious consideration and action, up to and including termination of employment. For how long did Wilkinson and, in turn, the league sit on them before moving early in the week of October 3 to present the Gruden emails to the Raiders?
The league has said that it became “informed of the existence of emails that raised issues beyond the scope of the investigation” during the investigation itself. Then, “over the past few months,” a group of senior NFL executives reviewed more than 650,000 emails including the Gruden emails.
Although some think that the issue first became flagged by the reporting of the email using a racist trope in reference to DeMaurice Smith on Friday, October 8, the league acknowledges that, early in the week of October 4, the senior executives who reviewed the 650,000 emails presented a summary of the review to the Commissioner. The league then decided to share the emails with the Raiders.
To be clear, the league — not the Wall Street Journal — pulled the lawnmower cord during the week of October 4. Along the way, someone leaked the email regarding Smith to the Wall Street Journal. Even without the leak, the Raiders were getting the emails.
So why did the Raiders get emails about which the league had known for months during the regular season? If this had come to a head in, January, owner Mark Davis could have hired a new coach who would have spent the offseason preparing to move forward. If the league had waited until after the current season ended, Davis could have replaced Gruden then. Instead, the delivery of the emails to the Raiders — coupled with the making of just enough of them public — forced the team’s hand.
During a season. Let that sink in. Per a source with knowledge of the timeline, Washington owner Daniel Snyder went to the league office at some point in June to have, essentially, a hearing regarding the punishment he’d receive. Present for the hearing were the Commissioner and a small handful of owners. By the time that meeting happened, the league (we’re told) definitely was aware of the Gruden emails.
Again, why wait until October to act on the emails? Even if this had all blown up in June, Davis and the Raiders would have had time to make a hire and to get someone up to speed. The unanswered question, and it’s a critical one, is when the league first knew about the Gruden emails and why the league waited until the week of October 3 to start this process.
That’s not a defense of Gruden. It would have been wrong to let him finish the season, knowing what we now know. But it was wrong to let him even start the season, given that the league already knew.
We don’t expect to get a straight answer, or any answer for that matter, to this question. There’s really no good answer that can be provided. Still, if the league knew about these emails at or before the commencement of the usual offseason hiring process, the Raiders would have been in much better shape than they now are, scrambling to hold it together with an interim head coach and dealing with the aftermath of a tumultuous 72-hour period that started with one email being leaked and ended with Gruden walking away for good.
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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Bill Barnwell on if the Chargers have what it takes to finish out a promising start:
Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
Preseason FPI playoff chances: 38.7%
Current FPI playoff chances: 81.8%
Difference: Plus-43.1%
I wrote about the Chargers as part my piece on the AFC West after Week 3. Since then, the division as a whole has gone 4-5 outside of the West, including L.A.’s 34-6 loss to the Ravens on Sunday. The Broncos and Raiders, who each got off to 3-0 starts, have gone 1-5 over the ensuing three weeks, with their lone win coming with one (the Raiders) beating the other.
The biggest reason the Chargers’ playoff odds have risen dramatically since the preseason is what has happened to the rest of the division. The Chiefs, who were prohibitive favorites, are 3-3 and haven’t looked like their old selves. The Broncos have fallen back to earth. The Raiders are tied with the Chargers for first place at 4-2, but the Chargers won the first head-to-head game between these two teams, so Justin Herbert & Co. have the tiebreaker.
Things also will be easier for the Chargers moving forward. The teams they’ve played so far are a combined 20-10 (.667) in games in which they haven’t been facing L.A. By FPI, they’ve faced the league’s second-toughest schedule. Over the rest of the season, the teams they’ll face are a combined 29-35 (.453) in games in which they’re not facing the Chargers. FPI thinks the Chargers have the fourth-easiest schedule in football over the remainder of the season. They get one more game against the Chiefs, but they won’t have to face a team as good as the Cowboys or Ravens again until January.
Sunday’s blowout loss should understandably raise some concerns about how things could go wrong for the Chargers, but that game is an example of the worst possible situation for Los Angeles. Brandon Staley’s defense wants to let teams run the ball, and the Ravens are the league’s most consistent rushing attack. Baltimore promptly ran the ball 38 times for 187 yards and three touchdowns, with Latavius Murray, Le’Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman each getting a score.
Baltimore got out to an early 14-0 lead, which led Staley to do what he has done in weeks past and get uncommonly aggressive on fourth down in his own territory. The Chargers had been wildly effective on fourth down in prior weeks and used those fourth-down successes to help fuel a comeback win over the Browns, but they weren’t anywhere nearly as effective this time, converting just one of their four tries. They also couldn’t run the ball all day, with Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley combining for 10 carries for just 14 yards.
Just as the Chargers weren’t going to convert virtually all of their fourth downs all season, they’re not going to whiff three out of four times most weeks. They also probably won’t trail by double digits every week, as they have the past two games. The weakened schedule should help there. The Vikings might be the only team remaining on their slate with a great running game. The Chargers don’t match up well with the Ravens, but a fair number of the teams they’re likely to face in a deep AFC playoff run are pass-first, like the Bills and Chiefs.
We haven’t yet seen the best out of Staley’s defense, either. Opposing offenses are converting 43.9% of their third downs against Los Angeles so far, which ranks 25th in the league. The Chargers have blitzed at the sixth-highest rate on third down but rank 27th in pressure rate on that down. They’ve committed 22 penalties for 432 yards on defense, which ranks 31st, ahead of only the Buccaneers. Those issues aren’t likely to keep up as the season goes along.
On the other hand, I’m worried that the Chargers won’t do anything about one of the problems ailing them for years. Special teams remains a mess; they ranked 28th in Football Outsiders’ special teams DVOA heading into Week 6. One of the biggest problems has been kicker Tristan Vizcaino, who has missed five extra points. Teams can be rash in making decisions about young kickers — the Chargers once cut Younghoe Koo after a six-kick sample, only for Koo to become one of the best kickers in the league with the Falcons — but if your kicker can’t make extra points at a 90% clip and you don’t have him attempting anything beyond 50 yards, how much value is he really adding?
The other big perennial concern for the Chargers is medical. Injuries have torn apart the core of this team season after season, often before the regular season has even begun. We’re beginning to see issues there. The newly built offensive line is already down two starters, as Oday Aboushi is done for the year with a torn ACL, while Bryan Bulaga went on injured reserve after Week 1. In the secondary, Chris Harris Jr. has missed time, while emerging star Nasir Adderley wasn’t available for the loss to the Ravens. Mike Williams has been one of the NFL’s best receivers to start the season, but he was questionable for the Ravens game and didn’t look 100% throughout the contest. For the Chargers to thrive, they need their starters to stay healthy.
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AFC NORTH
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BALTIMORE
This week’s “It” team has to be the Ravens (although just one week previously they struggled to beat Indy). Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com:
It’s difficult to find many balanced teams in the AFC. The Bills may be the most complete team, and the Browns went bonkers this offseason trying to construct a unit to compliment their offense. But if the Ravens can maintain anything close to the level of success they found against the high-flying Chargers on Sunday, then that is the best team in the best conference in football.
I’m not ready to crown them off of one standout performance, but my what an absolute tour de force it was. Justin Herbert looked like a rookie, hurried and out of sorts. Austin Ekeler was a non-factor, as were Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. It was a complete and utter dismantling of an offense that had appeared somewhat unstoppable, and if it in any way portends what is to come, then look out.
Before we go any further here, let me point out that, at various times this season, this unit has been carved up by less-than-elite offenses. Carson Wentz looked like an MVP against them last Monday, and Jared Goff sliced them up in a second half in Detroit that required a back judge error and a 66-yard field goal for Baltimore to overcome. Derek Carr shredded them Week 1, and Patrick Mahomes picked them apart in Week 2. The middle linebacker play had been suspect at best, the pass rush has been very hit or miss and, too often in the first six weeks of the season, when the Ravens brought the heat with all-out blitzes the results were poor.
But my, oh my, was Sunday a vintage outing. This game plan and effort and execution was worthy of any of the many esteemed Ravens defenses over time. It was thorough and hard-hitting and a complete suffocation of the opposing offense. Herbert never got into any sort of rhythm and never looked comfortable. His first drive ended with a punt when pressured by a safety blitz on third-and-10, and it was indicative of what was to come over the ensuing 60 minutes.
Herbert was just 22-for-39 for 195 yards with a touchdown and one pick (there could have been several more with Ravens defenders getting their hands on the ball all game). His MVP campaign was derailed in a decisive manner no one could have seen coming. The Chargers went just 4-for-16 on third and fourth down, and they had just 14 first downs. They mustered an incomprehensible 208 net yards (just 3.9 per play), amassing just 26 yards on the ground.
It will serve as a massive confidence booster for a defense that was struggling in many capacities. Outside of ageless defensive lineman Calais Campbell, who was playing more than anyone could have anticipated, and hybrid strong safety Chuck Clark playing at a Pro Bowl level and rookie end Odafe Oweh making plays, there wasn’t much to love about the group. On paper, the secondary has the potential to be otherworldly, even with Marcus Peters out for the season, and on Sunday they were.
Free safety Deshaun Elliott looked like an emerging Pro Bowler in the preseason, and after dealing with several injuries, he was a destructive force against the Chargers, making an expert pick and getting a key pressure. Top corner Marlon Humphrey has gotten better every week after a slow start. Corner Anthony Averett bounced back after a rough night Monday. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale sent overloads and second-level blitzes that rattled the Chargers. They overpowered the line of scrimmage.
It was a very different look than anything we’ve seen from them this season. And if it is indicative of what they can do at their best, when coupled with an offense that evolved considerably from Lamar Jackson’s 2019 MVP season, then the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC might go through Baltimore.
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CINCINNATI
Jason LaCanfora also likes the Bengals:
Are we buying the Bengals? Like as a legit playoff threat in the AFC?
I am.
The AFC West has come back to earth in a big way. The East has just one strong team (Buffalo), and the South is a mess, as it so often is. Why not the Bengals? Say what you want about the Lions, but Cincy dispelled with them in a calculated manner and didn’t let them hang around the way they have been so many of these weeks. It was a businesslike discarding of an inferior foe; it, frankly, was something that franchise hasn’t been capable of in quite some time.
They are getting a little swagger and confidence. Joe Burrow’s injury feels like something from a different time. This defense has some bite and they are bought in to a degree not seen in those parts for a while. Zac Taylor has grown into the job, and I imagine they go to Baltimore next week and make a positive statement even if it is in defeat.
They don’t beat themselves anymore. They are much more balanced on offense. They have proven to be a tough out every week through a third of this season, and I don’t think they are falling apart any time soon.
Can the Bengals get to say, 10-7? They have a tough one this week at Baltimore:
7 Sun, Oct 24 @ Baltimore
8 Sun, Oct 31 @ New York Jets
9 Sun, Nov 7 vs Cleveland
10 BYE WEEK
11 Sun, Nov 21 @ Las Vegas
12 Sun, Nov 28 vs Pittsburgh
13 Sun, Dec 5 vs Los Angeles Chargers
14 Sun, Dec 12 vs San Francisco
15 Sun, Dec 19 @ Denver
16 Sun, Dec 26 vs Baltimore
17 Sun, Jan 2 vs Kansas City
18 Sun, Jan 9 @ Cleveland
If you look at the Jets as a 5th win, after that 10 pretty tough games. They’ve already beaten the Steelers, and let’s for this exercise say they beat Cleveland at home. That’s 7. Let’s say they lose both Baltimore games. So 7-4. They would have to win 3 of: at Vegas, LAC, SF, at Den, KC and at Cleve.
Bill Barnwell ponders the same issue:
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)
Preseason FPI playoff chances: 15.3%
Current FPI playoff chances: 52.5%
Difference: Plus-37.2%
The Bengals are back! Like the Cardinals, we haven’t seen Cincinnati in the playoffs or really in the playoff picture since 2015, when it had a 16-15 lead on the Steelers with 1:36 to go in the wild-card game, only for Jeremy Hill to fumble and a pair of unsportsmanlike conduct penalties handed Pittsburgh a chip-shot field goal. This team went 25-53-2 over the five ensuing seasons. Now, FPI projects the Bengals to finish with 9.2 wins, which would be their first winning record since that 2015 campaign.
The frustrating thing for this team is that it could easily be 5-1 and tied for first place in the AFC North, given that it missed two winning kicks against the Packers in what eventually became a 25-22 loss. Of course, it took fourth-down conversions against the Vikings and Jaguars to set up three-point victories, so the Bengals could almost as easily be 2-4. Their most impressive victory was the 24-10 manhandling of the rival Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Most of the big stories surrounding the Bengals this past offseason talked about whether Joe Burrow would be able to return from his serious knee injury or how their trio of talented wide receivers would look in a pass-happy attack. I’ll get to all of that in a second, but they haven’t been the story so far this season.
To the contrary, Lou Anarumo’s defense has been driving the success. The Bengals rank fifth in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 18.5 points per contest. They also rank fifth in EPA per play on that side of the ball and seventh in defensive win probability added. If anything, they’ve run a little cold; the Bengals are fifth in EPA per play on first and second down but only 19th on third down.
The Bengals have spurred improvement on that side of the ball with signings the past couple of years. Trae Waynes has played only two games this season, but cornerback Eli Apple has started in his place and looked like an effective starter for the first time since 2018. Apple has allowed a 90.4 passer rating in coverage as the nearest defender. Mike Hilton and Vonn Bell have been acceptable, but Chidobe Awuzie has been excellent, posting a 70.7 passer rating allowed.
I’ve got to eat some crow, however. I didn’t love the Bengals swapping Carl Lawson for Trey Hendrickson this offseason. The former Saints edge rusher had only one season with significant production, and the Bengals were guaranteeing Hendrickson what amounted to $20 million for the 2021 season. The track record of teams guaranteeing No. 1 money to edge rushers with short track records who were the No. 2 guys on their old teams hasn’t been good.
Well, I was wrong about Za’Darius Smith joining the Packers, and I have been wrong about Hendrickson through six games. The 26-year-old has 5.5 sacks and 11 knockdowns in six games. He’s comfortably been the best pass-rusher for the Bengals, although former Giants tackle B.J. Hill has chipped in with three sacks. Eight of the 12 most used players on Cincinnati’s defense are players who were signed in free agency, and that doesn’t include Waynes. I don’t know how often that formula works, but the Bengals are having plenty of success with it.
If Hendrickson was the biggest addition the Bengals made on defense this offseason, Ja’Marr Chase was their most notable new player on the other side of the ball. As you might have noticed, despite preseason concerns that Chase wasn’t separating and was dropping too many passes, the No. 5 overall pick is off to a spectacular start. He has 553 receiving yards and six touchdowns through the first six games of his career. The only receiver since the merger with more receiving yards through their first six games is Anquan Boldin (592). It’s easier to catch passes in the modern era, but Chase is ahead of guys such as Justin Jefferson, Amari Cooper, Andre Johnson and even Randy Moss.
Many argued that the Bengals should have followed a year in which Burrow was running for his life by drafting top offensive tackle Penei Sewell over Chase in Round 1. It’s too early to make that call, but they have done a much better job of protecting their star quarterback. In 2020, they had a teamwide pass block win rate (PBWR) of just 50%, which ranked 30th in the NFL. Through six weeks, they are up to 19th in PBWR, at 56.7%. That’s a major step in the right direction. Jonah Williams & Co. are also eighth in run block win rate (RBWR).
And for whatever concerns there were about Burrow over the summer, he doesn’t look like a quarterback concerned about traffic around his knees. If he was hesitant to plant, we would see him posting a significant off-target rate, and that hasn’t been the case. Just 13.3% of his passes in 2020 were off-target, which was the fifth-best rate in football. This season, coming back from that knee injury, he has thrown only 12.4% of his passes off target.
Burrow has also torched teams that have tried to send extra pressure. He has posted a league-best 97.1 QBR against the blitz so far, a season after he ranked 26th in the same category. Chase isn’t an offensive lineman, but adding Burrow’s former LSU teammate gave the quarterback someone he trusts implicitly on hot routes and 50/50 balls, allowing him to get the ball out before the blitz gets home. Chase leads the league in receiving yards (273) when Burrow has been blitzed.
The Bengals can build on their hot start over the next three weeks. Two of their next three games are in the division, including a road trip to play the Ravens on Sunday and a home game against the Browns in Week 9. If they can win one of those two games and hold serve at home against the Jets, Zac Taylor’s team will hit its bye at 6-3 and with a 2-1 record in the AFC North, which should put them in solid position to make it back to the postseason.
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CLEVELAND
QB BAKER MAYFIELD is trying to figure out the options for his bum shoulder. Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:
Baker Mayfield received his MRI results and apparently didn’t like what he heard. Mary Kay Cabot ofcleveland.com reports that the Browns quarterback is seeking a second opinion.
Only after that will the Browns determine what to do at quarterback Thursday night against the Broncos.
Case Keenum, though, surely is getting himself ready to play after Mayfield dislocated his left shoulder again Sunday. Mayfield miss four snaps against the Cardinals.
Mayfield partially tore his labrum in the victory over the Texans in Week 2 and has worn a harness since. He has played almost every snap since then.
Doctors will determine whether he is at risk of injuring the shoulder further by playing. He wore a sling on his left arm to his postgame news conference and said the shoulder “feels like shit.”
Mayfield, who does not have a second contract yet, has six touchdowns and three interceptions in six games. The Browns are 3-3.
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AFC SOUTH
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HOUSTON
The NFL can be a merciless business. Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com:
The Texans plan to release defensive end Whitney Mercilus, a source confirmed to ESPN.
The Texans drafted Mercilus in the first round in 2012, but this was his first year in Lovie Smith’s defense, which saw him move from outside linebacker to defensive end.
In March, the 31-year-old Mercilus restructured his four-year, $54 million contract, making him a free agent after this season.
Last month, Mercilus said the transition in the Texans’ new defense has “been a little different.”
“Now it’s like my keys are shortened down to just reading tackles and tight ends and pre-snap reads, so I can’t see anything that’s post-snap or when motions happen, stuff like that, to get a beat on what might happen, things like that,” Mercilus said. “It’s just reading my keys more so and locking in on that, and just letting instinct take over.”
In six games for Houston this season, Mercilus has three sacks, four tackles for a loss, three quarterback hits and 12 tackles.
He has 57 sacks in 10 seasons for the Texans, which ranks second in franchise history behind J.J. Watt, who had 101 sacks with Houston.
The news was first reported by SportsTalk 790.
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AFC EAST
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BUFFALO
QB JOSH ALLEN ponders how the Bills fell to 4-2 and his role in it. That, and some stats, from Alaina Getzenberg of ESPN.com:
Running back Derrick Henry was too much for the Buffalo Bills Monday night, finishing the game with 143 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
The Tennessee Titans held off a Bills rally to win 34-31 and scored the most points against Buffalo this season in the process.
Looking forward, however, there is positive news for the Bills.
Buffalo (4-2) heads into the bye and then things only get easier. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Bills have the third-easiest remaining schedule. After a tough stretch of AFC division leaders, three teams with losing records (Dolphins, Jaguars, Jets) await.
Last year the Bills suffered a tough loss in Arizona on the “Hail Murray” pass from Kyler Murray to Deandre Hopkins and then went into the bye week. The team proceeded to win out the rest of the regular season.
“A lot of shoulda, coulda, woulda,” quarterback Josh Allen said. “But at the end of the day, 4-2 going into the bye week. Going back to last year, taking a loss the way we did against Arizona … this is resilient team, and I got no doubt that we’re gonna use this to fuel us and be ready to go in two weeks.”
The Bills outplayed the Titans for much of the first half, but big plays, penalties and turnovers kept Tennessee in the game. Buffalo, which came into the game allowing less than 75 yards on the ground per game, gave up a 76-yard rushing touchdown to Henry in the second quarter, the longest rushing score in the NFL this year.
“We let [Henry] out a few times, and when that happens, you can watch all the games on film and know once he gets through that front line, it’s hard to bring him down,” safety Micah Hyde said.
In the second half, the defense allowed the Titans to put together three drives of eight-plus plays and control the clock. All of Tennessee’s second-half drives resulted in scores, and the Titans finished 3-3 in the red zone. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill was not sacked once and the Bills defense only registered two quarterback hits.
Red zone scoring was one of the Bills’ early issues, something that has been a theme throughout the season. Twice in the first half, Buffalo kicked field goals from the Titans’ 10-yard line or closer, which prevented the Bills from establishing an early lead. Buffalo finished the game 2-for-5 in the red zone on offense and have scored touchdowns on 55.2% of red zone drives.
Allen also dealt with pressure he hadn’t faced outside of the Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. He was sacked three times (tied for a season high) and took seven quarterback hits. Allen finished the game completing 35 of 47 passes for 353 yards, three touchdowns and an interception.
Pivotal play: In the game’s final seconds, the Bills chose to go for it on fourth-and-1 from the Titans’ 3-yard line. But Allen slipped and came up just short. Down three points, Bills coach Sean McDermott elected not to attempt a field goal for the tie.
Allen had rushed for a first down on 13 of 14 attempts on fourth-and-1 in his career entering Monday, and the only one that was unsuccessful was a botched snap against the Jets in 20189. The quarterback also had 24 first downs on quarterback sneaks since entering the league in 2018 (most in the NFL).
“Josh is usually spot on with those, you’ve seen him have a lot of success in those situations,” McDermott said. “… (I) felt, hey, if we’re that far from potentially winning the game right there it was the best thing we could do. We hadn’t stopped them on defense for a number of drives there in the second half, really. Felt like we could go and win the game right there.”
Eye-popping NextGen stat: Allen has seven passing touchdowns on the run this season (two vs. Titans). Nobody else in the NFL has more than four this year.
“Analytics” is backing McDermott’s goal line play
@NextGenStats
The Bills decision to go for it on 4th & inches from the Titans 3 (trailing 34-31) was unequivocally the optimal call according to the NGS Decision Guide.
Conversion Probability: 75%
Win Probability: 63% if GO, 42% if FG
Recommendation: GO FOR IT (by 21.3%)
We wonder why the mighty Bills would be considered only 42% to win in overtime? Why would it not be nearer 50%?
But we are also surprised that converting the 4th down was only 75%.
Mike Florio:
Once upon a time, coaches who did the thing that seemed unconventional and failed would face the wrath of fans, media, and their owners. Now, coaches who do the unconventional thing are praised — even if they pratfall.
That’s what happened on Monday night. Even though converting fourth and short from the Tennessee two wouldn’t have automatically delivered a win (the Bills still needed to score a touchdown), even though the Bills decided for the one-option quarterback sneak instead of the multi-option shotgun snap to Josh Allen, who could have thrown to one of several receivers or attempted to run the ball, even though the Bills got a little cute with Allen pretending to move to the line of scrimmage to communicate with his linemen before taking a quick snap (along the way, Allen apparently didn’t notice that the defensive line had shifted into sneak-prevention alignment), Bills coach Sean McDermott is being praised for playing the percentages, despite the fact that the outcome of this specific iteration becomes a data point that helps counsel against going for it in the future.
The situation entails so much more than the binary choice between going for it and not going for it. What’s the plan if the Bills had converted? Would there have been enough time to turn the first down into a touchdown? McDermott said he opted to go for it because he trusts his players; how much of the decision was influenced by the lack of trust in his defense to keep the Titans out of the end zone if they’d won the overtime coin toss?
And then there’s this very important (but often overlooked) dynamic when it comes to aggressive decisions that flow from following the formula. If the coach doesn’t do the thing that the analytics would mandate (even if it’s the unconventional thing), the coach has to answer for it internally, sometimes to an owner who may not know Xs and Os but who definitely knows numbers and percentages. Owners are now far less likely to be bamboozled by a tough-talking “football guy,” because owners come to the table with clear and precise talking points prepared by the analytics department.
Pre-analytics, the coach and the owner didn’t speak the same language. Now, there’s a common ground, a same page. And the coach who hopes to remain employed is far better off doing the thing that the analytics dictate, no matter how unconventional (given pre-analytics attitudes) it may seem.
There’s another factor that needs to be considered when making these decisions, a factor specific to the timing of the game. The Bills could have afforded to play another 10 minutes of football, since they’re off on Sunday. The Titans, in contrast, face the Chiefs in five days. So if the Titans were to beat the Bills in OT and in turn to seize the head-to-head tiebreaker, why not make it a little more difficult for the Titans to beat the Chiefs on a short week — especially if the Titans ended up getting the overtime win over Buffalo and securing the head-to-head tiebreaker?
Although the charts and graphs and formulas are now more detailed than ever, that’s another very real factor that a head coach must consider in these situations. The truth is that ALL factors need to be considered, quantitative and qualitative.
That’s not to say that McDermott was right or wrong. He made the decision that he made, and now the Bills will have to move forward. Given their post-bye schedule and the status of the AFC East behind them, they’ll likely be fine. If they’d won last night, of course, they’d be a little better than fine.
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