THE DAILY BRIEFING
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Even though the NFC holds a 14-12 edge in inter-divisional play to date, the AFC’s current playoff line of 4-3 is higher than the NFC’s 3-3.
And If The Season Ended Today, both LA teams would hold the final playoff spot in their respective conference. And each of the East divisions has three teams in the playoffs.
The AFC:
Team W-L Div Conf.
Buffalo East 5-1 1 4-1
Kansas City West 5-2 1 2-2
Tennessee South 4-2 1 3-1
Baltimore North 4-3 1 4-2
NY Jets WC1 5-2 2 4-2
Miami WC2 4-3 3 4-2
LA Chargers WC3 4-3 2 4-2
Cincinnati 4-3 2 2-2
Indianapolis 3-3-1 2 3-3-1
New England 3-4 4 2-2
Las Vegas 2-4 3 2-3
The NFC
Team W-L Div Conf.
Philadelphia East 6-0 1 5-0
Minnesota North 5-1 1 4-1
Seattle West 4-3 1 2-3
Tampa Bay South 3-4 1 3-2
NY Giants WC1 6-1 2 3-1
Dallas WC2 5-2 3 4-2
LA Rams WC3 3-3 2 3-2
San Francisco 3-4 3 3-2
Green Bay 3-4 2 2-3
Atlanta 3-4 2 2-3
Washington 3-4 4 2-3
Arizona 3-4 4 2-3
Chicago 3-4 3 1-4
Here’s how veteran scribe Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com sees things with five teams very, very likely for the postseason, but nine more spots to fill:
Seven weeks into the season, we have five teams that look like good bets to be in the playoffs. The Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs — the top three teams in my Power Rankings this week — look like the elite of the league. The Tennessee Titans also have a good hold of the AFC South, with the other three teams hardly looking like challengers. The Minnesota Vikings are 5-1 and have a victory already over second-place Green Bay, which is 3-4, so they look solid for now.
But for the rest of the league, it’s about getting right for December to make the tournament and get hot in the playoffs. Teams like the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, as well as the Packers and Bucs, need to use the next six weeks to fix their issues and get ready to make a playoff run.
They all have talent, so it’s just a matter of when and if they can get things right.
Then there’s the 6-1 New York Giants and 5-2 New York Jets. Are you believers yet? Can they maintain? Both are getting hit by injuries, which will make it challenging going forward.
For now, the teams that aren’t quite where they should be have to take solace in the fact that they have time to get there. It’s not about the regular season, it’s about fixing your issues to make sure you have ticket to the postseason party — with a chance to get hot at the right time.
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
The Cowboys have lost nickel CB JOURDAN LEWIS per Jon Machota of The Athletic:
Dallas Cowboys cornerback Jourdan Lewis will miss the rest of the season with a Lisfranc (foot) injury sustained in Sunday’s game against the Detroit Lions, the team announced Monday. Lewis underwent surgery and will be placed on injured reserve.
Lewis was injured when he badly twisted his foot while coming up with a fourth-quarter interception, his first of the season. He intercepted Lions quarterback Jared Goff’s pass intended for wide receiver Tom Kennedy with Dallas up 10-6; the Cowboys then drove the ball for a touchdown and went on to win 24-6 in Dak Prescott’s return.
A Lisfranc injury occurs in the midfoot due to bone fractures and/or torn ligaments. Other NFL players to miss time with the injury in recent years include Panthers quarterback Matt Corral, who had his rookie campaign cut short this season, Travis Etienne, Cam Newton, Evan Engram and Alshon Jeffery.
Lewis, in his sixth NFL season, also missed the Cowboys’ Week 4 matchup against the Washington Commanders with a groin injury.
With Lewis out for the season, the Cowboys will turn to rookie DaRon Bland to be their starting nickel cornerback.
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Jori Epstein of YahooSports.com on the dominance of LB MICAH PARSONS:
Micah Parsons had, according to Next Gen Stats, virtually no chance.
The Philadelphia Eagles were driving in the red zone in the second quarter, employing run-pass option to capitalize on their dual-threat quarterback. The Dallas Cowboys hybrid linebacker/edge rusher was torn: Should he trust that Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts wouldn’t use his legs or hope a teammate stepped up in coverage vs. receiver A.J. Brown?
Parsons tried to do some version of both on the Oct. 16 play, which Next Gen Stats says Brown had a 99.9% chance to earn a first down and a 40.7% chance to score a touchdown. Brown indeed scored a 15-yard touchdown, extending Philadelphia’s lead in what would eventually be a 26-17 win.
Three days later, back at the Star practice facility, defensive coordinator Dan Quinn pulled the second-year All-Pro into his office. Quinn thought back to Parsons’ request after the Cowboys selected him 12th overall in the 2021 NFL draft.
“I want you to coach me hard,” the player had told his coach.
So while Quinn often reprises what he says is the “crazy uncle” role among Parsons’ mentors, he knew this was a chance for a teaching moment. He brought Parsons into his office for a closed-door meeting to discuss: Here are plays Parsons could make and didn’t. Here are ways in which Parsons could use his speed to more effectively capitalize on pursuit strengths.
Self-adjustments, particularly against play action, would be key.
Parsons’ moment arrived early in the fourth quarter against the Lions on Sunday. In retrospect, the Cowboys’ 24-6 victory featuring five second-half takeaways seems evident. But when the Lions drove into the red zone early in the fourth quarter, they trailed by just 4 points. On second-and-5 from the Cowboys’ 15, Lions quarterback Jared Goff faked a handoff right before completing a screen pass left to tight end Brock Wright. Micah Parsons hovered near the 25-yard line as Goff threw — then he bolted. Parsons outraced several teammates, and multiple reports said he topped out at 20.41 mph, per Next Gen Stats. The result: Parsons slammed Wright to the ground 1 yard short of the end zone.
The following play, defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence punched the ball loose from Lions running back Jamaal Williams’ grasp. Cowboys linebacker Anthony Barr recovered. Dallas would complete its run of 21 unanswered points, each touchdown scored on a turnover-gifted possession.
Quinn thought to himself: Would the fumble draw so much attention that no one remembered Parsons’ unstastically alluring yet undoubtedly point-quashing pursuit?
Quarterback Dak Prescott, in his postgame news conference, wasn’t asked about Parsons when he praised the defender’s “relentless effort.”
Head coach Mike McCarthy, on Monday, called Parsons’ tackle “the play of the game.”
And a college coach texted Quinn to tell the coordinator: He was showing his team that play and another from Parsons as exemplary of style, finish and effort.
“The type of energy and effort plays that can change a game,” Quinn said. “And you don’t know when they’re going to happen. You just got to go.
“And he definitely went.”
Parsons credited his coordinator with inspiring the juice.
“Sitting down with Q [Quinn] the past week, he was talking to me about plays I could make if I just use my speed and chase-down, knowing that’s my superpower,” Parsons said. “We kind of had that father-son talk this week. He challenged me and I told him, I said: ‘You challenged me and I’ll never let you down.’
“Stuff like that I credit to Q because he’s a person who means a lot to me and I just hate to let him down. So when I’m out there, I try to give everything I got for him.”
Perhaps Parsons would be spectacular even if he wasn’t motivated by his coordinator or their closed-door session. The defending Rookie of the Year earned All-Pro honors for his inaugural campaign after collecting 13 sacks, 84 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, 30 quarterback hits and three forced fumbles. Cowboys coaches learned quickly last year that despite Parsons’ 18 months off of football (he opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19), he had skill, motor and rare competitive spirit.
And he started this season even faster, with four sacks in the Cowboys’ first two games. Parsons has since faced more double and triple teams — the Lions’ offensive holding call in the final 2 minutes of the third quarter, for example, was another attempt to neutralize Parsons that doesn’t register as a sack — but still has recorded seven sacks, tied with San Francisco 49ers’ Nick Bosa for most in the league. Parsons has forced two fumbles as well, to Bosa’s zero.
Pro Football Focus grades him second only to the Cleveland Browns’ Myles Garrett among league edge rushers, with a 91.1 overall defensive grade and 91.5 pass-rush mark.
What excites Quinn: Parsons still itches to get better. He didn’t take his early success and rest on his laurels, instead channeling self-awareness and humility to acknowledge moments like Brown’s Philadelphia touchdown in which the Eagles revealed an area for growth.
“This season he’s made a lot of impact plays already. I wanted him to know: There is another space you can go to,” Quinn said. “He is such a competitor that he did not like to watch [the Eagles plays]. And the next words out of his mouth were: ‘Challenge accepted.’”
As Wright traveled toward the corner end zone not wholly unlike Brown the week prior, Parsons reached another gear and closed in.
“He just made the decision to say, ‘I can go make this play,’” Quinn said. “I was really proud of him.”
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NFC WEST
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SAN FRANCISCO
ESPN.com’s Bill Barnwell with deep thoughts on the acquisition of RB CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY:
The McCaffrey trade is one of the most fascinating deals we’ve seen in the NFL in recent years, even as the league has gotten more and more trade-friendly. The upside for the 49ers is stratospheric and could give them one of the best sets of playmakers the league has ever seen. The downside is that he is an injury-prone, short-term rental for a team now below .500 and already was without its first-round pick in the 2023 draft. And unlike some trades, where those possibilities are remote, the best- and worst-case scenarios for this deal appear to be entirely plausible for Kyle Shanahan and his 49ers.
Having given the deal a couple of days of thought, I wanted to answer a few of the questions I saw in the immediate conversations after it. Several of the comparisons I’ve seen don’t hold up under much scrutiny. Others are more reasonable. Leaving aside what we saw Sunday, let’s get into the key questions from the McCaffrey trade, starting with the positives:
Is McCaffrey really a perfect fit for this offense?
To the extent that any running back can be that sort of difference-maker, yes. Before the season, when I wrote about quarterback Trey Lance, I mentioned the idea of how Shanahan wanted to fill his offense with playmakers capable of doing just about anything with the ball in their hands on a snap-to-snap basis. (Of course, this was before Lance went down with his fractured right ankle in September.)
Shanahan wants the plausible deniability of being able to line up in any personnel grouping and get to any of his rushing or passing concepts. His offense is the closest thing the NFL has to the sort of positionless basketball we’ve seen the NBA adopt over the past 15 years. Only in a Shanahan offense can his top wide receiver turn into the team’s lead running back at midseason, as Deebo Samuel did a year ago. Only the 49ers have their fullback running wheel routes for big plays up the sideline. (Well, until teams that hired Shanahan assistants started emulating him.) Every eligible receiver in a Shanahan offense should be capable of doing anything in that offense on a given play.
From that perspective, McCaffrey makes total sense. For whatever he offers as a traditional running back, his output as a receiver in Carolina was remarkable. During his five-year run as the lead back for the Panthers, he was the focal point of the passing attack.
With middling quarterback play for most of his tenure, McCaffrey drew targets on nearly 29% of his routes and averaged 2.1 yards per route run. To put that in context, those numbers are right in line with what Chargers wideout Keenan Allen has done over the same time frame on a route-by-route basis, and Allen has had better quarterback play without adding any significant rushing value. Those numbers also haven’t diminished over the past several seasons, when McCaffrey has struggled to stay healthy.
As a receiver, his ability to create mismatches is already obvious. Just as the Saints have done for years with Alvin Kamara, the Panthers loved running McCaffrey out of the backfield and getting him matched up on option routes against slower linebackers in space. The Rams spammed that choice concept with Cooper Kupp to create completions last season.
With the 49ers preferring to use formations with Kyle Juszczyk and George Kittle on the field, teams have to match that sort of blocking ability by playing their base defense. Playing base defense means McCaffrey (or George Kittle) will be up against a linebacker in coverage on passing plays. In an offense that wants to give quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo easy answers and its receivers opportunities to make plays after the catch, it’s easy to envision the 49ers incorporating plays in which McCaffrey is the primary read in a passing progression, let alone whatever else he’ll offer on screens and checkdowns.
Is this McCaffrey the same guy we saw at his peak?
As a runner, I’m not sure McCaffrey is a difference-maker in quite the same way. The 2018-19 superstar model of him exceeded expectations, generating 372 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) across 497 tracked carries, for an average of 0.8 RYOE per attempt. By that model, which comes from NFL Next Gen Stats, the suggestion is he gained nearly a full yard more per run than what an average back would have gained with the same blocking against the same defenders in the same situations.
Over the ensuing three seasons, though, McCaffrey hasn’t been as productive. With 243 tracked attempts, he has generated minus-14 RYOE, suggesting he’s been about as productive as a league-average back on his carries. He’ll be taking over the lead back role from Jeff Wilson Jr., who has generated 117 RYOE across 88 carries this season, which ranks eighth in the NFL on a per-rush basis.
It’s possible the 49ers actually take a step backward in their running game with McCaffrey in the mix. They also were using regular carries from Samuel, who had generated 42 RYOE on 24 carries. If they use McCaffrey as something close to their every-down back, they’ll be returning Samuel to a role where he’s strictly a wide receiver, which is less valuable than the role Samuel was in before 2021.
It’s likely that we’ll see the 49ers mix and match backs and retain a role for Samuel and Wilson in the offense, but that they’ll use McCaffrey more than they used Wilson as their primary back. There’s nothing wrong with doing so, but it makes the trade harder to justify if he’s touching the ball 12-16 times per game than it would if he was expecting to take 20-24 touches.
During that run in 2018-19, McCaffrey was nearly an every-down presence for the Panthers, playing more than 90% of the offensive snaps in both campaigns. To put that into context, across those two seasons, he played 1,928 offensive snaps. The only other back within 350 snaps of the second-generation back was Ezekiel Elliott, who racked up 1,745 snaps for the Cowboys.
Between the two subsequent seasons of 2020 and 2021, Elliott was the only back to top 1,400 offensive snaps, and Chicago’s David Montgomery the only other one with more than 1,300 snaps. McCaffrey’s workload in terms of snap count was an enormous outlier at the time and only looks even more preposterous with a few years of context. And yet, at the same time, he was playing 85% of the offensive snaps for Carolina before the trade.
It’s impossible to attribute injuries solely to workload — and we know that backs who have smaller workloads can also get injured — but I have to imagine McCaffrey’s best chance of staying healthy for an entire season is playing less often on a week-to-week basis. Shanahan has been forced to rotate backs in and out of the lineup because of injury, but we’ve seen him create opportunities for multiple players on his roster. It’s clear Wilson should still figure into the offense. The Niners brought back Tevin Coleman off the street and gave him meaningful snaps in October. They used a third-round pick on Tyrion Davis-Price and should get back Elijah Mitchell, who was their lead back for most of 2021, from injured reserve later this season.
Even if McCaffrey is the primary back, I’d expect this to be a rotation where plenty of guys get touches. This leads to the next question …
Why does Shanahan keep investing in running backs?
I said I would answer the questions, but I didn’t say the answers would all be satisfying. I don’t know why Shanahan insists on making expensive additions at the position. Going back to his father Mike’s time in Denver, the Shanahan offense has been creating valuable backs out of mid-to-late-round picks and undrafted free agents for 25 years. That list includes Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson, Arian Foster and Devonta Freeman.
Even more notably, we’ve seen this effect during Shanahan’s time as the coach in San Francisco. In 2018, the 49ers signed Jerick McKinnon to a massive, over-market deal in free agency, only for the former Vikings back to lose two seasons to knee injuries before struggling after his return. Coleman, signed to a smaller deal the next year, averaged 3.5 yards per carry during his first stint with the team.
I don’t think we can blame Shanahan for the injuries, of course, but his priority draft picks at the position have been fiascoes. The 49ers traded up in 2017 for fourth-rounder Joe Williams, who never played an NFL snap. They used a third-round pick in 2021 on Trey Sermon, who immediately landed in Shanahan’s doghouse and was dumped after one season. Davis-Price, their 2022 third-rounder, doesn’t have a path to playing time with McCaffrey in the fold.
Over that time frame, Shanahan’s most productive backs all have been acquired on the cheap. Matt Breida was an undrafted free agent. Raheem Mostert was signed off the Chicago practice squad as a special-teamer before Shanahan arrived. Wilson was an undrafted free agent. Mitchell was a sixth-round pick. Even without those 25 years of preceding evidence, if you look at what has actually worked for the 49ers on the field, it’s been the backs who were afterthoughts with something to prove.
This often gets used to suggest running backs are all interchangeable and that teams can plug in anybody and succeed in a Shanahan-style offense. That isn’t fair. What I would say, though, is that there are more good running backs in and around the league than there are opportunities for running backs to get touches.
I think it’s clear that McCaffrey offers a level of receiving aptitude that other backs on San Francisco’s roster simply do not have. I would also argue there are backs who can catch passes available in free agency or on the bottom half of rosters who could also have been acquired for far cheaper and still offered passing-game help. Devontae Booker, who was solid for the Giants last season, is out of the league. Ameer Abdullah, Antonio Gibson and Cam Akers can catch the ball and wouldn’t cost much to acquire, while Duke Johnson is on the Buffalo practice squad.
McCaffrey is better than all of those guys, of course, but is he that much better to justify the four picks the 49ers paid to acquire him? And can the Niners afford to have him on their roster in 2023? The answer might depend on whether they perceive McCaffrey as a running back at all.
What could happen with McCaffrey after the season?
The 49ers had only a few million dollars in cap space when they made this deal, but it was easy to get a trade done and fit McCaffrey under their 2022 salary cap. That’s because the Panthers restructured several deals in March to create short-term cap space, when they were attempting to trade for quarterback Deshaun Watson.
One of the deals they restructured belonged to McCaffrey, who had $7.4 million of his base salary converted into a bonus. He got his money up front, while the Panthers spread the bonus over four years for cap purposes. As a result, he had only a little over $1 million in base salary on his deal in 2022, and with the Panthers paying out the first six weeks of the deal, San Francisco only is on the hook for $690,000 this year.
Next year, that changes. McCaffrey has no guaranteed money left on his contract, but he’s owed $12 million in 2023, $12 million in 2024 and $12.2 million in 2025. After two years of injuries, it’s safe to say he wouldn’t get that much on the open market if he hit free agency. With the 2023 free agent running back class set to include Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Kareem Hunt, David Montgomery, Miles Sanders and others, it’s unlikely McCaffrey would be in position to get more than $6-7 million per year on a new deal.
The 49ers have flexibility, but they’re left in an awkward position. They’re projected to have about $6 million in cap space with McCaffrey on the books, but that’s without new deals for Garoppolo, safety Jimmie Ward, tackle Mike McGlinchey, kicker Robbie Gould and several other key players, let alone making additions elsewhere. General manager John Lynch might choose to let some of these veterans move on, but they also need cap space to go after replacements.
If McCaffrey looks like a superstar, they’ll happily pay the $12 million and go year-by-year. If he falls anywhere short of that standard, San Francisco would probably want to get him down on a reduced salary, which won’t be a fun negotiation. His representation will know the 49ers won’t want to lose a player months after trading four draft picks to acquire him. The Niners will know he will get less money on the open market and wait for him to change his mind.
Sometimes, this works out in a deal that fits both sides, as it did with Garoppolo and the 49ers this offseason. Stuck in a staring contest while Garoppolo recovered from shoulder surgery and the trade market cratered, the two sides agreed on a pay cut in August that offered Garoppolo the upside to make significant money if he regained his starting job, as he eventually did because of Lance’s injury. With McCaffrey’s long-standing relationship with the Shanahan family dating back to Denver and the possibility of staying out in the Bay Area, it’s possible he will be amenable to a renegotiation. It’s also possible — maybe even likely — that this is a one-and-done deal.
One way to make the financial math work for the 49ers comes to mind. I’ve talked about how significant and valuable McCaffrey’s role is in the passing game. What if the 49ers see him primarily as a receiver as opposed to a running back? They used him more as a traditional back Sunday, but it’s easier to give him those initial touches before he learns the playbook as a runner as opposed to taking snaps as a receiver. I don’t think he will be taking 80% of his touches as a runner for the majority of his time in San Francisco.
In the market for running backs, McCaffrey’s $12 million salary would make him one of the league’s highest-paid backs. As a receiver, though, that’s midtier money. Three years and $36 million is in line what Corey Davis and Curtis Samuel got paid in free agency before the 2021 season, and it wouldn’t even have as many guarantees. If McCaffrey is going to be targeted seven times per game and continues to be as efficient in the passing game, you could make the case he should be treated like a receiver, regardless of what he contributes as a runner.
Even if that happens, can Shanahan afford to pay McCaffrey that much? Samuel’s cap hit is only $8.7 million next year, but that jumps to $28.6 million in 2024. Offensive tackle Trent Williams has the largest contract for an offensive lineman in league history. Kittle is making $15 million per year. Edge rusher Nick Bosa is in his fifth-year option next season and should get a massive new deal, although the Niners will also probably reduce his $17.9 million cap hit as part of that extension. Wideout Brandon Aiyuk is eligible for an extension and a significant raise next offseason. The 49ers can probably squeeze it in if they want to keep McCaffrey, but it’s cash and cap space that could be applied to more vulnerable spots on their roster.
There’s another team that seemed to ignore the cap, added key players last year and won the Super Bowl. Let’s discuss the 49ers’ NFC West rivals …
Could this trade tell us something about another deal to come?
The McCaffrey deal got me thinking about Lance and his future with the team. The reports during Lance’s second training camp were mixed at best, and while he played only five quarters before going down injured, he didn’t look great in the rain at Chicago. We still don’t have enough public information to make any sort of meaningful inferences about Lance’s abilities as a quarterback, but the 49ers have far more reps and private information on which to base their opinion after evaluating him in practice over the past two seasons.
On one hand, trading for McCaffrey makes more sense if Lance is the quarterback, given that he’ll be relatively cheap in 2023 and possibly still in 2024. Lance’s fifth-year option doesn’t come due until 2025, meaning the 49ers can easier surround him with plenty of expensive talent next season, even given the other contracts they have to complete this upcoming offseason.
On the other, one way to get back draft capital back is to trade Lance. If the 49ers think he isn’t the quarterback they believed they were getting in 2021, the haul they sent away to acquire him is a sunk cost. There would still be teams interested in acquiring Lance to be their quarterback of the future, even if he struggled with the 49ers.
In this scenario, which would probably require a deep playoff run and excellent work on the offense, the Niners would re-sign Garoppolo to an extension this offseason. Lance still probably would net a late first-round pick or early second-round pick in return. I will admit the trade I keep coming back to — given Atlanta’s desire to run the ball and Shanahan’s stockpiling of positionless playmakers — is a swap of Lance for tight end Kyle Pitts. I’m not sure that solves the draft capital problem, but it’s fun to argue about.
This is more of a hypothetical than anything else, and the Niners could use a player such as Aiyuk in trade to replenish their draft capital instead. Either way, given how much they’ve shipped off, it’s important for the 49ers to try to get an additional draft pick or two this offseason.
Should the 49ers have gone all-in for McCaffrey?
All-in is a relative term, but the 49ers traded away most of the assets they had available this offseason. Most of their core players are on deals that would be difficult to trade, and they can’t deal Lance until the offseason. Unless they were willing to give up significant draft capital just to keep McCaffrey from the Rams, this is a deal Shanahan and Lynch made to try to win this season.
While I did pick the 49ers to make it to the Super Bowl before the season, it’s a little weird to see them making that move now. They were 3-3 when they acquired McCaffrey and are now 3-4. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) loves them, projecting them to have a 63.4% of winning the NFC West before losing to the Chiefs. Now, FPI has dropped them to 52%. When the Rams traded for Miller last season, they were 7-1 and virtual locks to make it to the postseason, although they were in a divisional race with the Cardinals.
Then again, when the Rams made that trade a year ago, the Niners were 3-4, too. They proceeded to sneak into the playoffs by beating the Rams in Week 18 and then came within a drive of beating L.A. again and advancing back to the Super Bowl. The NFC looked like a wide-open mess before Sunday, and the conference looks even more wild after the Buccaneers and Packers lost. Being 3-4 isn’t down and out in a conference where just five of 16 teams have a winning record.
I wouldn’t have made this deal, but selfishly, I’m happy the Niners decided to do it for one reason: It’s fun. Lynch and Shanahan run their roster like people who really wants to see what Shanahan would do with an exciting offensive playmaker, and while that isn’t always the best thing for the organization, it makes for fun tape. Outside of fantasy football considerations, there was no point in having McCaffrey rack up garbage-time targets for a Panthers team heading nowhere. I’m not sure the 49ers will look back and love this trade, but it’s likely we’ll end up seeing very entertaining moments with McCaffrey wearing red and gold.
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LOS ANGELES RAMS
WR VAN JEFFERSON is designated to return. Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com:
The Los Angeles Rams have designated wide receiver Van Jefferson to return to practice from injured reserve, the team announced Monday.
Jefferson had not practiced since he had knee surgery in August. The team put him on injured reserve in late September in part because the Rams needed his roster spot because of injuries at other positions.
The Rams also designated cornerback Troy Hill and linebacker Travin Howard to return to practice.
Rams coach Sean McVay said the team would take it a day at a time, but he does expect Jefferson and Hill to contribute this week against the San Francisco 49ers. Asked what he missed most during Jefferson’s absence, McVay said his “overall productivity.”
“Obviously, he brings the big-play element, but I think Van’s a complete receiver,” McVay said. “I think he showed that with the way that he was progressing really throughout last year, but then especially where he was at in relation to just his performance in training camp. And camp is camp, but it’s still playing football.
“And so to be able to get him back, a guy with a lot of experience, a lot of ownership of our offense, the ability to play in a bunch of different spots, I think he’s a great complement to some of the guys that we already have in the mix. But you’re getting a big-time playmaker back who can do a lot of different things for us.”
Last season for the Rams, Jefferson had 50 catches for 802 yards and six touchdowns.
McVay said there’s a possibility that Jefferson could have been ready to come back before Week 8 had the Rams not needed his roster spot but that the team wanted to make sure his return wasn’t rushed.
“I think we felt like the smart approach was to do what we did,” McVay said. “And it was great to be able to have Van back out there this week. He looks good, and I’m excited for Van to be able to help our team.”
McVay also said he expects center Brian Allen to return from the knee injury that has kept him out since he left the season opener against the Buffalo Bills.
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SEATTLE
Dan Graziano of ESPN.com says it is an OVERREACTION to think the Seahawks are the favorite in the NFC West:
The Seattle Seahawks are the team to beat in the NFC West
While we were all distracted (understandably) by the Wilson trade, the Seahawks quietly put together a strong offseason. Just look at their draft. They found their current starting tackles in the first and third rounds. Second-rounder Walker looks like a true superstar at running back. Cornerback Tariq Woolen is an interception machine and a leading Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Cornerback Coby Bryant (you know, the “other” rookie cornerback from Cincinnati) has been a playmaker on the back end. Seattle GM John Schneider may well have crushed what will turn out to be a crucial draft for his franchise. Smith has been very good, but Walker’s 168 rushing yards Sunday was the third 150-plus rushing yard performance by a Seahawk so far this season. They’re playing well in all phases and look like they haven’t just fluked their way into first place.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Full credit to the Seahawks and everything they’ve done. Clearly, the expectation that they would be one of the league’s worst teams ranks among the most foolish of this year’s preseason overreactions. If they can run the ball this way and improve on defense as the year goes along, there’s no reason to think they can’t be a real postseason contender. But 4-3 isn’t 7-0, and that Rams team lurking right behind them is the defending Super Bowl champion. The 49ers just traded for Christian McCaffrey. The Seahawks still have to play the Rams twice, and they’ve lost eight of their last 10 games against the Rams. And while they somehow only have three road games left, they’re in Arizona (whatever), L.A against the Rams (as discussed) and in Kansas City (yikes). There is work to do before we can consider the Seahawks the class of the NFC West, as impressive as it is what they’ve done so far.
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AFC SOUTH
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INDIANAPOLIS
Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com believes that Jim Irsay and money, more than football and Frank Reich, sent QB MATT RYAN to the bench.
Sam Ehlinger officially becomes the starting quarterback of the Colts. If he fails or gets injured, Nick Foles will take over. And if Foles gets injured, the quarterback will be anyone but Matt Ryan.
Ryan is done. He’s out. He won’t play again, for reasons rooted in his contract. Put simply, once the team decided (and it was clear from coach Frank Reich’s comments that owner Jim Irsay made the decision) that Ryan won’t be the quarterback in 2023, it was time to pull the plug on 2022.
Ryan’s contract already pays him $12 million in base salary next year, fully guaranteed. But millions more would become fully guaranteed if Ryan suffers an injury that keeps him from passing a physical by the third day of the 2023 league year in March, when the payments that are currently guaranteed for injury become fully guaranteed.
Specifically, Ryan has $7.205 million in additional 2023 salary guaranteed for injury, and a 2023 roster bonus of $10 million, which is also guaranteed for injury. That’s $17.205 million that the Colts would potentially owe Ryan (in addition to the $12 million) if he emerges from the 2022 season with an injury that prevents him from passing a physical by the middle of March.
That’s why Ryan won’t be playing again for the Colts in 2022. He could, in theory, be traded before next Tuesday. His performances through seven weeks of the current season, however, will surely cause any/every team to shy away from Ryan and his contract, regardless of whether a starter suffers a season-ending injury this weekend.
The question then becomes whether the Colts would cut Ryan after the trade deadline. He may ask to be released. The Colts may wait for the right moment to dump him, thinking that a potential quarterback-needy team may claim his contract on waivers.
Again, it’s unlikely. He is, by all appearances, done. No every quarterback will have his arm beyond his fortieth birthday. For the 37-year-old Ryan, too many of his throws now look like what John Madden used to call the last shot out of a Roman candle.
Ryan has had a great career. He was an MVP. He did everything in his power to win a Super Bowl. He recently passed Dan Marino to become No. 7 on the all-time passing yardage list.
Matt Ryan has a solid case for Canton. At this point, however, continuing to play could eventually hurt his cause. And so, as it was when the Vikings benched Donovan McNabb for Christian Ponder in 2011 and later released McNabb, it may simply be over for Ryan.
Even if it is, he’ll still make $12 million next year to not play pro football. The Colts, at this point, are simply hoping to be sure he doesn’t get $17.205 million more.
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AFC EAST
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NEW ENGLAND
The Patriots curious strategy of playing two quarterbacks did not go well on Monday night. Grant Gordon of NFL.com:
Bill Belichick’s best-laid plans for the New England Patriots’ quarterback position went awry on Monday night, leaving little clarity on a foggy night in Foxborough.
After missing three games due to a high ankle sprain, Mac Jones got just three drives in his return. Thereafter, Bailey Zappe briefly sparked the offense on back-to-back scoring drives.
What followed that, however, was a muddled mess as the Patriots lost to the Chicago Bears, 33-14, and walked away from a Monday night defeat with a host of questions unanswered regarding their quarterback conundrum.
“I told the quarterbacks that we were going to play both of them, and that’s what we did,” said Belichick, who had won five straight against the Bears before Monday.
Belichick declined to name a starting quarterback for the Patriots’ Week 8 matchup Sunday on the road against the New York Jets.
“We just finished the game,” he answered in vintage Belichickian form.
Though Belichick didn’t name a starter or convey his plan going forward, he admitted Jones’ health played a “factor” in the plan for both QBs to play and said he didn’t foresee a platoon situation with Zappe and Jones alternating starts.
Jones got the start and struggled when he completed only 3 of 6 passes for 13 yards with an interception and a 16.7 passer rating over the game’s first three series. His tribulations came amid loud chants for Zappe from a home faithful that has embraced the rookie QB after he’d quarterbacked the Patriots to consecutive wins.
“I just have to do better at my job, and that’s all it comes down to,” Jones said when asked about how deflating it was to hear Zappe chants when he was on the field. “That’s all I can control. Honestly, we’ve got a good chance here to go against the Jets, and that’s what I’m focused on. I’m going to do my best to put my best foot forward. I’ve been in this situation before, and just going to try to help the team. Whatever my role is, I’ll be ready, and I’ll give it 100%.”
Jones’ last play was a Jaquan Brisker interception, though Belichick said he pulled the second-year signal-caller because of the pregame plan rather than his play, no matter the optics.
“That’s not what it was, but you can write whatever you want to write,” Belichick said when told it seemed to be a benching for performance. “That’s not what it was.”
Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
It was a strange night for the Patriots, in more ways than one. And they’ll now be picking up the pieces on a short week before the first of two 2022 meetings with the resurgent Jets.
Quarterback Mac Jones started. After an interception, he was benched for Bailey Zappe. The rookie gave the team a spark, but it was short-lived. He threw two interceptions and lost a fumble.
Along the way, Belichick told Lisa Salters of ESPN that it was the plan all along to play both quarterbacks, and that Mac Jones would be back at some point in the second half. He wasn’t.
Through it all, the New England defense had no answer for the Chicago offense, which had nearly as many rushing yards (243) as the Patriots had total yards (260).
So now the question becomes who will be the quarterback going forward. As defensive back Devin McCourty told reporters after the game, the quarterback won’t matter if the defense gives up 33 points, as it did tonight.
Coach Bill Belichick inevitably was asked who the starting quarterback is.
“We just finished the game,” he said in response to that question. He added that the health of Mac Jones was a factor in the decision to not put him back in the game. And Belichick denied that the removal of Jones after an interception was a benching for performance.
Belichick added that Jones was aware he would play only part of the game. Belichick added that Jones would have re-entered in the second half, if the score hadn’t gotten out of hand.
As to the possibility that the team will rotate starting quarterbacks, Belichick said he doesn’t see that happening. He said tonight’s approach was “the best thing to do” based on “the situation.”
What about the situation?
“The whole situation,” Belichick said.
The whole situation for the Patriots is that they’re 3-4. As Belichick said, they played “poorly” in all phases, and that they have “a lot of work to do.”
Indeed they do. For the first time in a long time, the Jets will be ready to give them everything they can handle.
More from Steve Buckley in The Athletic:
While it’s true, then, that New England didn’t do much to stop the Bears, that doesn’t change the fact that Belichick did an astonishingly bad job of handling this entire situation. For a guy who won’t tell you how he takes his coffee to be dropping all these breadcrumbs about using both quarterbacks, and then, to confirm to ESPN he planned to use them both, was bad enough. But yanking Jones following the interception came across as ham-handed and unnecessary.
Jones isn’t some grizzled NFL veteran who has played for a bunch of teams and fought back from dozens of aches and pains. He’s a second-year quarterback whose lone playoff experience last season was a disaster, and his rehab from the high ankle sprain has coincided with Zappe emerging as a wunderkind. By all accounts, Jones has worked his ass off. He deserved better than this.
If there was a plan to take Jones out after three possessions, Belichick should have ash-canned that plan. Asked after the game if Jones’ health played into his plan to use two quarterbacks, the coach said, “Yeah, that was a factor, yes.”
When asked if taking him out was a medical decision, he said, “No.”
Was the decision related to the interception?
“No,” he said. “I told the quarterbacks that we were going to play both of them, and that’s what we did.”
– – –
Either nobody knew what was going on and because of that everything got messed up, which is pretty bad, or everybody knew what was going on and things still got messed up, which is even worse.
So, who will start at quarterback Sunday against the Jets? Maybe it’ll be Zappe, who said, “You take mental reps whenever you’re not in,” in response to a question about whether he was properly prepared for the Bears.
Or maybe it’ll be Jones, who threw an interception Monday night, got yanked, and then stood on the sideline as cheers of “Zappe! Zappe! Zappe!” echoed around Gillette Stadium.
Given the totality of this loss for the Pats, maybe it doesn’t make any difference who’s at quarterback against the Jets.
But, hey, no hard feelings.
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NEW YORK JETS
With RB BREECE HALL done for the year, the Jets gets a quality replacement for a song. Rich Cimini of ESPN.com:
Striking quickly to fill a sudden void in their backfield, the New York Jets agreed to acquire running back James Robinson in a trade with the Jacksonville Jaguars, sources confirmed to ESPN on Monday night.
The Jets will send a 2023 conditional sixth-round pick to the Jaguars, which becomes a fifth-rounder if Robinson rushes for 600 yards this season, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter. He already has 340 yards.
After losing standout rookie Breece Hall to a season-ending knee injury on Sunday, and with the Nov. 1 trade deadline approaching, Jets general manager Joe Douglas scoured the market for a replacement. Robinson, one of the league’s top success stories only two years ago, lost his starting job recently and became expendable.
The Jets (5-2), off to their best start since 2010, can use Robinson and Michael Carter as a one-two punch. They’re 4-0 since shifting to a ground-oriented attack, and Robinson — known to be a high-volume back — should allow the Jets to continue with that style. They also have Ty Johnson.
It will be difficult to replace Hall’s production, though. He is eighth in the NFL in rushing with 463 yards, averaging 5.8 yards per carry and scoring a touchdown in four straight games.
Robinson is in the final year of his rookie contract and will be a restricted free agent after the season, meaning the Jets will have an opportunity to retain his rights for 2023.
Travis Etienne Jr. surpassed Robinson on the Jaguars’ depth chart over the past several weeks and got the start in the past two games, rushing for 200 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries (8.3 yards per carry) in losses to the Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants.
Robinson has rushed for 2,177 yards and 18 touchdowns in his three seasons with the Jaguars, including 1,070 yards and seven touchdowns as an undrafted rookie in 2020. His 1,414 yards from scrimmage that season were the most by an undrafted rookie in NFL history.
Robinson had 767 yards and eight rushing touchdowns last season before suffering a torn left Achilles tendon in the Jaguars’ Week 16 loss at the Jets.
Robinson was ready for the 2022 season opener, however, and ran for 66 yards and a touchdown to go along with a touchdown catch in Jacksonville’s loss to the Washington Commanders. He had a season-high 23 carries in Week 2 and 17 in Week 3, before Etienne became a bigger part of the backfield rotation.
Robinson played only 12 snaps in Sunday’s loss to the New York Giants and did not record a carry or a reception in a game for the first time in his career. Jaguars coach Doug Pederson said Monday that Robinson was dealing with some knee soreness, but he was not listed on the injury report last week.
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THIS AND THAT
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2023 DRAFT
The Jets, Giants, Eagles and Dolphins all had extra draft capital this spring – and improved results on the field this fall.
The Texans, Seahawks, Lions and Eagles (again) are poised to have that kind of impact in 2023. Eric Edholm and Dan Parr of NFL.com look at the current order:
This is a look at the first-round order for the 2023 NFL Draft heading into Week 8 of the 2022 NFL season, along with the top three needs for each team. Keep in mind — teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today are marked as PL (short for playoffs) in the order below. The draft order for playoff teams is determined by the results of postseason play.
NOTE: The NFL announced in August that the Miami Dolphins will forfeit their 2023 first-round pick and 2024 third-round pick following an investigation into whether the team violated league policies pertaining to the integrity of the game.
1 – Detroit Lions
1-5 · Strength of schedule: .650
Biggest needs: QB, DB, DL
DP: After scoring six points total in the last two games, the idea of a fresh start at quarterback must sound like a pretty good idea in Detroit, which is in line to pick inside the top 10 for the fifth straight year.
2 – Houston Texans
1-4-1 · .402
Biggest needs: QB, WR, Edge
EE: Understandably, quarterback is the position everyone is focusing on, as the Texans currently are holding two top-five picks. But there could be a significant overhaul at receiver, too.
3 – Carolina Panthers
2-5 · .458
Biggest needs: QB, WR, DL
DP: Running back replaces defensive line on the needs list this week following the Christian McCaffrey trade. Complementary back Chuba Hubbard is the only Carolina rusher signed beyond this season.
4 – Houston Texans PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE CLEVELAND BROWNS
Browns’ record: 2-5 (.469)
5 – Seattle Seahawks PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE DENVER BRONCOS
Broncos’ record: 2-5 (.489)
6 – Philadelphia Eagles PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Saints’ record: 2-5 (.500)
7 – Pittsburgh Steelers
2-5 · .542
Biggest needs: OT, CB, DL
EE: Cameron Sutton looks like a keeper, but the Steelers could use more depth at corner.
8 – Jacksonville Jaguars
2-5 · .585
Biggest needs: DL, WR, TE
EE: They’re in a tough spot, as the Jaguars must continue building around Trevor Lawrence, but the defense has shown signs of regression lately.
9 – Las Vegas Raiders
2-4 · .488
Biggest needs: OT, Edge, DL
EE: The Raiders have a true defensive difference maker in Maxx Crosby but few others who command much attention up front, with Chandler Jones (0.5 sacks) a disappointment so far.
10 – New England Patriots
3-4 · .396
Biggest needs: OT, Edge, WR
EE: Their offensive needs are pretty clear. But Bill Belichick hasn’t used a first-round pick on defense since 2015 (DT Malcom Brown), and the Patriots are never afraid to go against the grain.
11 – Atlanta Falcons
3-4 · .438
Biggest needs: OL, Edge, QB
DP: The Falcons invested in their pass rush in the 2022 draft, and they might need to do the same next year. Atlanta ranks dead last in the league in sack percentage (3.7%), per Next Gen Stats.
12 – Miami Dolphins PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
49ers’ record: 3-4 (.458)
Dolphins’ needs: OL, CB, RB
EE: They’ve largely struggled to maximize their draft investments in the offensive line in recent years. But if they can’t find veteran OL help, can they afford to not address that position relatively early in the draft?
13 – Chicago Bears
3-4 · .521
Biggest needs: OL, WR, DL
DP: The Bears have spent only one draft pick on an interior defensive lineman in the last four drafts, and it was a seventh-rounder (Khyiris Tonga, in 2021, who’s now with the Vikings). With three IDLs headed for free agency in 2023, GM Ryan Poles will likely be looking for help at the spot next spring.
14 – Arizona Cardinals
3-4 · .522
Biggest needs: OL, CB, Edge
DP: Cornerback could end up as the Cardinals’ biggest need this offseason. They have only two CBs under contract beyond the 2022 campaign — rookie Christian Matthew and second-year defender Marco Wilson.
15 – Washington Commanders
3-4 · .522
Biggest needs: QB, CB, OL
DP: With William Jackson III wanting out, Washington is down a veteran corner at the moment and could be in the market at the position next spring.
16 – Green Bay Packers
3-4 · .583
Biggest needs: WR, S, TE
DP: The sputtering Packers will need to re-sign their own guys or hit the tight end market in 2023, as both Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis have expiring contracts.
17 – Indianapolis Colts
3-3-1 · .446
Biggest needs: QB, WR, Edge
EE: There will be immense pressure on the Colts to find a quarterback. The Matt Ryan experiment can already be deemed a failure, with the 37-year-old being benched by Frank Reich.
18 – Cincinnati Bengals
4-3 · .510
Biggest needs: DB, OL, TE
EE: Hayden Hurst has been a nice addition this season. But there’s only one tight end on the roster currently under contract for 2023 (Devin Asiasi). The Bengals have used five picks on tight ends in Rounds 1-3 since 2009, but they could be back in the market again.
PL – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3-4 · .449
Biggest needs: QB, DB, DL
DP: Free agency could take a bite out of the Tampa Bay secondary. Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean, Mike Edwards, Keanu Neal and Logan Ryan are in the final year of their deals.
PL Detroit Lions PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE LOS ANGELES RAMS
Rams’ record: 3-3 (.512)
PL – Seattle Seahawks
4-3 · .375
Biggest needs: DL, WR, LB
DP: Seattle’s depth at wide receiver will be tested for as long as DK Metcalf is sidelined. Marquise Goodwin stepped up on Sunday, but can the pending free agent keep it going?
PL – Los Angeles Chargers
4-3 · .394
Biggest needs: LB, WR, OT
EE: It wouldn’t be shocking to see GM Tom Telesco target a receiver fairly high in next spring’s draft. Keenan Allen will be carrying a cap hit of $21.7 million, Mike Williams has had a lengthy injury history and Josh Palmer remains in the wait-and-see stage of his development.
PL Baltimore Ravens
4-3 · .604
Biggest needs: WR, Edge, CB
EE: It might not be their most pressing need, but the Ravens could use some new blood at cornerback. Marlon Humphrey is under contract through 2026, but Marcus Peters is due to hit free agency in the spring.
PL Tennessee Titans
4-2 · .575
Biggest needs: OL, Edge, TE
EE: Taylor Lewan will be entering his age-32 season coming off a serious knee injury and in the final year of his deal, set to make more than $14 million (but with no money guaranteed). Will he be a cut candidate? The other tackles on the roster haven’t gotten it done.
PL New York Jets
5-2 · .429
Biggest needs: OT, S, LB
EE: Aside from converted college DB Jamien Sherwood, GM Joe Douglas has not used a pick on a linebacker in his three drafts with the Jets. That could be a position they attack in the offseason.
PL Kansas City Chiefs
5-2 · .500
Biggest needs: OT, WR, DL
EE: It’s not hard to envision JuJu Smith-Schuster re-signing with the Chiefs, the way things are going so far. But another free-agent-to-be in 2023, Mecole Hardman, has been hot and cold with Kansas City. Will he be back next season? Skyy Moore is in tow, but he’s off to a slow start in his rookie year.
PL Dallas Cowboys
5-2 · .565
Biggest needs: DB, OL, WR
DP: Adding depth to the offensive line might have to be a priority for Dallas, with starting guard Connor McGovern in the final year of his contract and Tyron Smith struggling to stay healthy.
PL Minnesota Vikings
5-1 · .475
Biggest needs: DB, WR, Edge
DP: With Adam Thielen seemingly in decline, finding a more dynamic target to complement Justin Jefferson could be crucial for the Minnesota offense in 2023.
PL Buffalo Bills
5-1 · .550
Biggest needs: OL, S, LB
EE: Rodger Saffold turns 35 before next season and is set to hit free agency this offseason, so the Bills could look to draft a ready-made interior lineman if they can’t secure one on the open market.
PL New York Giants
6-1 · .479
Biggest needs: QB, WR, RB
DP: As we approach midseason, the Giants are the only NFL team without at least one wide receiver who has eclipsed the 200-yard mark. The position probably will be atop their needs list if they ultimately re-sign Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley.
PL Philadelphia Eagles
6-0 · .475
Biggest needs: DB, Edge, DL
DP: In this pass-happy era of football, the Eagles haven’t spent a first-round pick on a defensive back since 2002. Will the team put that streak to an end with one of its two first-round picks next year? James Bradberry, Marcus Epps and C.J. Gardner-Johnson are due to become free agents in 2023, and Darius Slay’s deal will be up after next season.
TEAMS CURRENTLY WITHOUT A FIRST-ROUND PICK
Cleveland Browns
2- TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK TO THE HOUSTON TEXANS
Biggest needs: WR, DL, Edge
EE: The Browns have rotated four young interior defensive linemen — Perrion Winfrey, Jordan Elliott, Taven Bryan and Tommy Togiai — and haven’t received great performances from any of them consistently. Would they dip back into the draft for more help or go the veteran route?
Denver Broncos
2- TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK TO THE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Biggest needs: OL, RB, LB
EE: GM George Paton’s history, both in Denver and in his time with the Vikings, shows that he values the RB position. Javonte Williams will be back next year, but he’ll be coming off a torn ACL, and the Broncos really could use a good receiver at the position to complement him.
Los Angeles Rams
3- TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK TO THE DETROIT LIONS
Biggest needs: Edge, OL, DB
DP: The Rams went into their Week 7 bye with two of their linemen ranked among the 10 worst in pass pro at their respective positions (OT Joe Noteboom, OG Bobby Evans), and another ranked among the five worst at the pivot (C Jeremiah Kolone), according to The Athletic. Matthew Stafford is going to need better from his front five.
New Orleans Saints
2 TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK TO THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Biggest needs: QB, DL, WR
DP: The Saints’ defense is one of the league’s most disappointing units, ranking 31st in scoring a year after finishing fourth in the category. New Orleans is among the few teams that have allowed 20-plus points in every game this season, and three of its four starters on the defensive line are due to become free agents this offseason.
San Francisco 49ers
3 TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK TO THE MIAMI DOLPHINS
Biggest needs: OL, DL, DB
DP: The trenches might need to be the focus for the 49ers next spring, with two starters on the offensive line and a few key contributors on the defensive line in a walk year.
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