The Daily Briefing Tuesday, October 4, 2022

AROUND THE NFL

For the first time ever, 15 games in a single week of NFL action were close in the fourth quarter.

As noted this morning, 14 of 15 games had a one-score margin in the fourth quarter. As Joe Buck pointed out at the outset of the fourth quarter from Levi’s Stadium, the 14-9 margin entering the final 15 minutes made Rams-49ers the 15th of 16 games to have a one-score difference (eight points or fewer) in crunch time.

In all, the first four weeks of the 2022 season have featured 50 of 64 games with a one-score edge for one of the teams in the fourth quarter. That’s also a record.

The one game that did not achieve that status – Kansas City at Tampa Bay – ended up with a 10-point margin, just two outside that window.

– – –

Only two of the top five QBs in QBR makes any sense says Scott Kacsmar:

Even taking into account it’s Weeks 1-4, this is insane.

QBR

1 – Patrick Mahomes                     82.3

2 – Tua Tagovailoa                        77.8

3 – Josh Allen                                76.5

4 – Cooper Rush                           73.9

5 – Geno Smith                             72.4

I can’t imagine the top 5 has ever looked that weird after Week 4. Two studs, a potential third-year breakout, an extreme reclamation project who never was much in the NFL, and an undrafted backup.

CHICAGO

Should we be panicking about QB JUSTIN FIELDS and his slow start.  Dan Graziano of ESPN.com:

Justin Fields is not the Bears’ quarterback of the future

The team the Giants beat Sunday is dealing with a lot of the same stuff the Giants are — protection issues, lack of wide receiver options, youth and a new coaching staff. The Bears would be the league’s surprise 3-1 team if they’d been able to beat the Giants, but as it stands they’re 2-2 with continued questions about second-year quarterback Fields and the viability of the passing game around him.

Fields set season highs Sunday in pass attempts (22), completions (11) and passing yards (174), and he did not throw an interception. It might have been his best game of the season, unless you count the muddy opener against the 49ers in which he managed to throw his only two touchdown passes of the season. He was sacked six times after being sacked five times in Week 3, and as a passer this year Fields is 35-for-67 for 471 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions over four games. Those are some 1950s numbers, folks, and the chatter about whether the Bears trust Fields enough to let him throw the ball isn’t going to die down anytime soon.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

I still say it’s too soon. This is a young player in his second year in the league, learning a new offense under a new coaching staff. His team has not built a sufficiently strong offensive line in front of him or a sufficiently dynamic receiving corps for him to throw to. Sunday was the first game this year in which top receiver Darnell Mooney started to get going, and you saw the downfield connection between him and Fields on display a couple of times.

I spoke with a lot of Bears people this week, and they insist it’s just about time with Fields — rhythm and timing of the offense, the increased confidence that comes with experience and (ideally) success. It might well be that Fields isn’t the guy for the Bears long term, but it’s too soon to reach that conclusion at the moment. Give the young man time, and a little bit more to work with, before you give up on him. The Bears will.

DETROIT

QB JARED GOFF threw 12 passes to TE T.J. HOCKENSON on Sunday – good for 8 catches for 179 yards (the latter the most for a tight end in Lions history) and 2 TDs.

Or –

@DavisMattek

TJ Hockenson’s 39.9 PPR points is the 7th-highest tight end single-game fantasy score in NFL history

MINNESOTA

Vikings rookie S LEWIS CINE remained in England after a bad leg injury.  Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com:

Minnesota Vikings rookie safety Lewis Cine has undergone the first of two procedures to repair a compound fracture of his lower left leg, the team confirmed Monday afternoon. The second procedure will take place Tuesday at a hospital in London, where he will remain until the “appropriate time,” according to the team.

Cine suffered the injury in the first quarter of the Vikings’ 28-25 victory over the New Orleans Saints at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Members of the team’s medical staff accompanied him to a local hospital, and one will remain with Cine until he returns. Coach Kevin O’Connell said Monday that the fracture was “compound,” which means that Cine’s bone punctured his skin. That adds a level of complexity to the treatment and recovery.

Cine is in “great spirits,” according to a team statement, and O’Connell said he spoke with him for about 20 minutes after the team returned late Monday night to Minnesota. But O’Connell demurred when asked if he knows enough to be certain that Cine will be able to resume his career at some point.

“I think that’s a tough question right now,” O’Connell said. “We’ve been so short-term as far as making sure that he’s getting the care both medically and then support wise from us as an organization.”

O’Connell, who was an assistant coach with Washington when quarterback Alex Smith suffered a similar injury, said he wanted Cine to know that the organization will be “right there with him as he makes his way back to hopefully a full recovery” and added: “I have no doubt that he’s going to be attacking that every step of the way.”

NEW YORK GIANTS

The Giants have two QBs on the injury report.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Giants were able to put the finishing touches on a win over the Bears on Sunday despite being without a healthy quarterback, but beating the Packers in London this week looks like a taller task given the current state of affairs.

Head coach Brian Daboll said that Daniel Jones‘ ankle was “feeling a little bit better” on Monday, but Tyrod Taylor remains in the concussion protocol and no one’s being ruled in for this weekend yet. Davis Webb will likely be promoted from the practice squad and the team will work out other quarterbacks in order to make sure they’ll have enough healthy bodies for the game.

Signing another quarterback joins starting Webb as things the Giants will have to consider under the circumstances.

“I think you try to plan for every contingency plan that you may or may not have throughout the week,” Daboll said. “That will certainly be one of them. Again, I don’t want to guess right now on Monday where all the other guys are going to be. Davis been in our offense for quite some time. He knows the ins and outs of it, so if he has to play, we’ll do everything we can, and I know he will, to be ready to play. In terms of where we’re at at that point, I don’t think we’re at that point just yet to make a decision. We’ll let this thing play out.”

The Giants are also ailing at wide receiver. Daboll called Kenny Golladay unlikely to play this week and the team has been playing without Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson, so this weekend may be set up to feature an even bigger helping of Saquon Barkley for the Giants offense.

Mike Florio read the last paragraph and started wondering about an improbable reunion:

The Rams keep waiting and waiting and waiting to re-sign Odell Beckham Jr. There continues to be a chance that they’ll wait too long.

Josina Anderson of CBS Sports reported on Monday night that OBJ has visited with the Giants. In a subsequent tweet, however, she seemed to retreat from characterizing it as an official visit.

“OBJ was able to say hi to a number of his former teammates while in the area, including Sterling Shepard,” she wrote. “For those asking, yes free agent opportunities in the future will include exploring multiple teams, including his last one. I think he’d welcome wherever he’s loved.”

Beckham was a first-round pick of the Giants. He eventually wanted out, however. Coincidentally, it was an interview with Anderson, when she was with ESPN, that seemed to lay the foundation for his trade to the Browns.

The last line of her second tweet really says it all. Last year, it was the Rams who made the full-court press to get Beckham, and it won him over. If/when another team makes a similar push this year, they could get him.

The Giants obviously need help at receiver, due to the season-ending injury suffered last week by Shepard and the overall struggles of the best options (like Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney) to contribute.

Given that Beckham openly called for all fields to be grass after Shepard’s non-contact ACL tear, and in light of the general concerns regarding the quality of the surface at MetLife Stadium, a team that plays its home games on grass could have a built-in advantage.

Beckham continues to be recovering from a non-contact ACL suffered on the artificial surface at SoFi Stadium in the Super Bowl. When he’s healthy, he can be a huge contributor for a contender. The Giants have surprisingly emerged as an early-season contender, with a 3-1 record.

UPDATE 10:30 p.m. ET: Ralph Vacchiano of Fox Sports reports that Beckham did visit the facility, but that he didn’t meet with any coaches or executives. So it doesn’t count as an official visit.

More on the Giants and Coach Brian Daboll from Dan Duggan in The Athletic:

There aren’t many answers in the head-coaching manual for what to do when both of your quarterbacks are injured. But that was the position first-time head coach Brian Daboll found himself in during the fourth quarter of the Giants’ game against the Bears on Sunday.

Starter Daniel Jones had injured his ankle on a sack late in the third quarter. He had the ankle taped and tried to run on the sideline after the series, but Daboll saw the quarterback limping and inserted backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor.

The Giants signed Taylor to a two-year, $11 million contract for this exact scenario. But the veteran didn’t last even two possessions, as a shot to the head from Bears cornerback Kyler Gordon on a scramble knocked Taylor out of the game with what was diagnosed as a concussion.

So Daboll was forced to turn back to Jones, who was clearly hobbled. Daboll didn’t panic. Instead, he grabbed a grease board and drew up a few plays that he had run as the Bills’ offensive coordinator out of a three-back package.

On the next three plays, running back Saquon Barkley took the snap, flanked by fellow running backs Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell. Jones split out wide to force the defense to at least respect the possibility of a pass play.

“The way that the coaches reacted, brought us all in and started drawing it up, it felt like you’re back again as a little kid in the backyard playing football,” Barkley said. “Like you were 8 years old playing with your friends on Sunday, getting ready. You’re just drawing it up.”

The ingenuity sparked a 13-yard run by Breida on the first play. The Giants picked up 5 more yards to move into range for Graham Gano to kick a field goal to give the Giants a 20-12 lead with 5:31 remaining. That score stood, as the resilient Giants held on to improve to 3-1 on a day when the quarterbacks were among a long list of injured players to leave the game.

The players deserve immense credit for improbably gutting out these three wins to engineer the best start to a Giants season since 2011. But the effect of the coaching early in Daboll’s tenure can’t be overstated.

“I credit all of this to the coaches,” safety Xavier McKinney said. “I think from the jump they brought in that mentality of us being who we are right now. They make sure that we’re on point. It’s really helping us out.”

The Giants never worked on the three-back package with Barkley at the controls during the training camp practices that were open to the media. But they drilled the unusual plays leading up to the Bears matchup as part of the game plan. There was no way of knowing how important those reps would become in a crucial moment.

“Some of those plays we’ve run in practice before,” left tackle Andrew Thomas said. “Obviously, it’s not something we want to be in for a full-time offense. But we were prepared, and I think the guys did a good job of handling it.”

Adjusting on the fly is a hallmark of a well-coached team. But more encouraging, the offensive coaching staff has entered each game with a plan that best identifies a path to success for a group that has glaring deficiencies.

The biggest wrinkle on Sunday was the bootlegs Jones used to repeatedly shred an overzealous Bears defense. With Chicago focused on containing Barkley, Jones saw tons of open field after rolling out following faked handoffs.

PHILADELPHIA

It’s all about the second quarter for the Eagles, per Scott Kacsmar:

2022 Eagles – Scoring

1Q – 7          (T-28th)

2Q – 85        (1st)*

3Q – 14        (T-19th)

4Q – 9         (T-29th)

*No other 2022 team has more than 48 PTS in 2Q.

It also appears to be the new NFL record for 2Q scoring thru 4 games.

1941 Bears had 71 2Q points.

WASHINGTON

The Commanders could use a pick-me-up – and it may be RB BRIAN ROBINSON.  Zach Koons of SI.com:

Commanders rookie running back Brian Robinson was medically cleared by the team’s training staff less than six weeks after he was shot twice in an armed robbery attempt, coach Ron Rivera said Monday.

Robinson, who was shot twice in the leg on Aug. 28 in Washington D.C., has been on the reserve/non-injury list, which kept him out for at least the first four games of the 2022 season. NFL Network reported the bullets struck the 23-year-old in the glute and the knee but missed all major ligaments, tendons and bone.

Robinson returned to the practice field for the first time since the incident on Sept. 15.

Rivera revealed Monday the team will open the window to possibly activate Robinson on Wednesday. The move gives Washington three weeks to either activate the rookie ballcarrier or leave him on the non-football injury list.

Robinson, the Commanders’ third-round pick in the 2022 NFL draft, was expected to contribute to the team’s running back room immediately after a successful college career at Alabama. Rivera said Monday he still “has a plan” to work the rookie into the backfield rotation when he’s able to take the field.

The Commanders (1–3) will face the Titans on Sunday before taking on the Bears in Week 6 and the Packers on Oct. 23.

CAROLINA

Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com on the decline of QB BAKER MAYFIELD:

Not long ago, there was some excitement over Baker Mayfield possibly reviving his career with the Carolina Panthers.

Four weeks into the season, coach Matt Rhule was asked about about his quarterback plans moving forward. He couldn’t even fake his way through a confident answer.

“I think Baker’s our quarterback,” Rhule told the media via The Athletic and other outlets.

That comment was humorous, a bit startling and most of all, illustrative.

Mayfield’s continued decline has been one of the more stunning storylines of the 2022 NFL season. The Panthers traded for him when the Cleveland Browns gave up on him and got Deshaun Watson. It seemed like a good deal for the Panthers. They gave the Browns just a 2024 conditional fifth-round pick. Carolina is paying just $5 million of Mayfield’s salary while Cleveland pays $10.5 million. Now we better understand why the Browns weren’t just giving Mayfield away, but paying a lot to be rid of him.

At the end of the 2018 season, you couldn’t have predicted that Mayfield would be at these depths. He was the first overall pick of the 2018 draft after winning a Heisman Trophy, and then he set an NFL rookie record for touchdown passes in a season. He struggled in his second season with 21 interceptions, but then bounced back in year three. He had 26 touchdowns, eight interceptions, the Browns went 11-5 and won a playoff game. He looked pretty good and was a star in television commercials you saw too often. That was less than two years ago.

Any hope that his lost 2021 season was due to injuries has dissipated. Mayfield’s play has deteriorated to a point in which the oft-maligned Sam Darnold, who is out due to a high ankle sprain, was trending on Twitter during the Panthers’ 26-16 loss to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. That’s not good.

Sunday was a typical game for Mayfield this season. He had five passes batted down at the line. He made some bad throws and decisions. Mayfield had just 197 yards on 36 attempts. It was bad, and the fourth straight time he hasn’t played well.

It seems hard to believe but Darnold, who had just nine touchdowns to 13 interceptions last season, might be replacing Mayfield soon if he was healthy. When your coach says he “thinks” you’re the quarterback going forward, you’re in trouble.

His passer rating of 75 this season is second-lowest among all QBs with at least 70 attempts. The lowest rating in that group belongs to Mitchell Trubisky, who was benched at halftime by the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. He has been bad despite a supporting cast that includes good receivers in D.J. Moore and Robbie Anderson and all-world running back Christian McCaffrey.

Mayfield isn’t throwing deep and he’s not completing his short passes either. His average depth of target is 6.8, which is 28th among 31 quarterbacks with 100 dropbacks according to PFF. He’s completing just 54.7 percent of his passes though, so being safe isn’t helping there. Only Justin Fields has a lower completion percentage among starters. He has one “big-time throw,” a PFF stat, in 118 attempts. That 0.8 percent is second-worst in the league (Matt Ryan is worst at 0.6 percent).

It’s all falling apart. His height of 6-foot-1 was debated before the draft and it’s an issue on all those batted passes. Mayfield always gives off the air of confidence but he doesn’t seem to be playing with much confidence at all, judging by his lack of deep throws. His accuracy, a reason he went first overall, has waned. It’s difficult to be traded in early July and be fully up to speed by the time the season starts, but it still shouldn’t be this bad.

Mayfield took a pay cut to go to the Panthers and will be a free agent after the season. He had a chance to show that 2021 was a miss due to injuries and reestablish himself as a definite starter in the NFL, whether in Carolina or elsewhere. Four games into the season, his success from 2018 and 2020 seems like a long, long time ago. Considering Carolina’s next three games are against the strong defenses of the 49ers, Rams and Buccaneers, it could get even worse. His free-agent market might be very thin in March. It’s very hard to believe if he keeps playing at this level that any team would sign him to be their starter, especially with a good quarterback class coming in next year’s draft.

There’s a lot of football to go and maybe Mayfield will turn things around. But he’s probably lucky Darnold isn’t available as an option for Rhule. Mayfield’s play has fallen that far.

More shots at Matt Rhule:

Warren Sharp

@SharpFootball

Matt Rhule didn’t want to rebuild

he wanted a shortcut to winning & thought he could coach up failed QBs:

Bridgewater, Darnold, Mayfield

terrible plan + bad execution = worst ATS mark of any HC

failing to meet already low expectations

Kevin Kelley

@coachkelley1

Replying to @SharpFootball

Of all the qbs to pick to “reform” he chose three that I would never pick.  Bridgewater only threw well short. Darnold is a train wreck.  Mayfield won’t listen to anyone and refuses to correct accuracy issues.

NEW ORLEANS

Jeff Kerr of CBSSports.com thinks the double doink in London did in the Saints:

It’s hard to be positive about the Saints right now. Andy Dalton, Mark Ingram, Latavius Murray, and Taysom Hill are manning the quarterback and three running back spots with Jameis Winston, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas out. That’s an average age of 32.5 at four key positions, trusted to lead New Orleans to a win.

This group almost pulled it off as New Orleans erased a 16-7 deficit to take 22-19 lead in the fourth quarter. Wil Lutz hit a 60-yard field goal to tie the game at 25-25, only for the defense to allow six plays for 54 yards in just 27 seconds for the Vikings to take the lead for good.

Lutz was just an inch to the right away from forcing overtime from 61 yards out, showcasing how desperate the Saints are to win a game. Now, New Orleans sits at 1-3 and the win was a ridiculous comeback against the Falcons.

The Saints don’t have the makings of a good team. They desperately needed that field goal to bounce their way.

TAMPA BAY

Coach Todd Bowles explains/defends the team’s handling of TE CAMERON BRATE on Sunday night.  Tweets from Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times:

@NFLSTROUD

Bucs coach Todd Bowles attempted to explain why Cameron Brate finished the first half after a big collision despite winding up in concussion protocol.  “He went on the sideline. He complained of shoulder discomfort, nothing about his head. He was checked out three times.

“They give him a minute. Nothing came up. He went back in until the end of the half. At halftime, he started having symptoms, but they were delayed. He started complaining about that. They tested him and he was in the protocol and we kept him out the rest of the game.”

ARIZONA

EDGE J.J. WATT played Sunday after going into AFib.

Cardinals defensive end JJ Watt became visibly emotional Sunday after his team’s 26–16 win over the Panthers while fielding questions about a recent health scare.

Watt shocked the NFL world Sunday when just hours before the Carolina game he shared that he dealt with atrial fibrillation earlier in the week. The condition occurs when someone’s heart beats rapidly and irregularly, which eventually could cause a stroke or clot.

In his shocking tweet, he said he decided to share the news because he was informed someone close to him leaked the information and an unnamed publication was going to publish an article on the topic.

“I was assured multiple times from multiple people that there’s nothing else you can do,” Watt said on his heart condition. “You go back and play like normal, it could happen again the next day, it could happen never again in 20 years.”

Watt said his heart was beating weird Wednesday and they “shocked it” back into rhythm Thursday. The 33-year-old is expecting his first child with his wife and began to tear up when discussing what went through his mind as a father during the whole ordeal. Watt shared their son is expected to be born in “a few weeks.”

“For months, we’ve been looking at ultrasounds of our baby boy and they’re all extremely happy,” he said. “And Thursday we were looking at an ultrasound of my heart. It was very tough. But happy to be here.”

SAN FRANCISCO

Chris Myers points out QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO dominates the Rams:

@The_ChrisMyers

It’s not quite how Aaron Rodgers says he owns the Bears but Jimmy Garoppolo with a 7 – 0 record versus the Rams in the regular season is worth a mention!

#49ersfaithful #49ers #JimmyG

– – –

This from Warren Sharp prior to Monday’s game:

@SharpFootball

49ers DC DeMeco Ryans has held opposing offenses to below their projected scoring expectation in 12 of the last 15 games

hope tonight’s broadcast spends a moment to highlight how great he’s been in SF

They did.  Quite a bit actually.

DENVER

Jordan Dajani of CBSSports.com on the aftermath of the injury to RB JAVONTE WILLIAMS:

The Denver Broncos suffered a devastating blow Sunday, as they lost leading rusher Javonte Williams for the season after he tore his ACL and LCL against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Broncos are reportedly bringing in a veteran to help make up for this loss, as NFL Media reports that Denver is signing Latavius Murray off of the New Orleans Saints’ practice squad.

Murray actually played in his first game of the season this past Sunday, as he rushed for 57 yards and one touchdown on 11 carries in London, where the Saints fell to the Minnesota Vikings, 28-25. He was elevated to the active roster this week with Alvin Kamara inactive due to a rib injury.

Murray was originally a sixth-round pick of the Oakland Raiders back in 2013. The UCF product rushed for a career-high 1,066 yards and six touchdowns in his third NFL season. Murray has also spent time with the Vikings and Baltimore Ravens — with whom he amassed 501 yards and six touchdowns for last season. Now 32-years-old, Murray brings a veteran presence to an offense that has been disappointing thus far.

The 2-2 Broncos are coming off of a loss to the previously winless Raiders, and have the No. 18 rushing offense in the league, as it averages 109.5 rushing yards per game. With Williams out for the year, that leaves Melvin Gordon as the starter at running back. However, Gordon has fumbled four times in four games played this season, and first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett appears poised to use multiple backs in his system, with Mike Boone and now Murray.

BALTIMORE

Scott Kacsmar strikes again:

@ScottKacsmar

Blown leads of 17+ points

Baltimore Ravens before 9/18/2022: 3

Baltimore Ravens since 9/18/2022: 2

– – –

CB JIMMIE SMITH is retiring after 11 seasons.  Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com on his solid career:

In announcing his retirement Monday, Baltimore Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith acknowledged that he endured many injuries and wants fans to think about the type of player he was when he was on the field.

“But, ultimately, I want them to remember — championship,” Smith said as he flashed the Super Bowl ring on his right hand.

Smith, 34, spent 11 seasons in Baltimore and will forever be remembered for stopping Michael Crabtree from making a catch on a fourth-down goal-line stand, which preserved the Ravens’ 34-31 Super Bowl XLVII victory over the San Francisco 49ers in February 2013.

On Monday, Ravens coach John Harbaugh recounted the start of the 2012 season when Smith was coming back from a sports hernia injury and was limited to special teams. Smith was frustrated about not playing defense, and Harbaugh told him that he would “make the play that wins us the Super Bowl” if he stuck with it.

“This is not a lie,” Smith said. “I didn’t believe him.”

The Ravens drafted Smith with the No. 27 overall pick of the 2011 draft. Known for his size and ability to shut down top wide receivers, Smith finished with 374 tackles, 74 passes defensed, 14 interceptions and three touchdowns.

Smith said the reason for calling it quits was “ultimately, my body.” Injuries limited him from reaching a Pro Bowl. He missed a total of 49 games in his career.

“Jimmy wanted to be on the field,” Harbaugh said. “Even if he wasn’t 100% all the time, his 80 or 90% was better than most every other guy’s 100%. That says a lot.”

Smith pointed out that there is something that separates him in a stellar draft class that included Cam Newton, Von Miller, A.J. Green, Patrick Peterson, Julio Jones and J.J. Watt.

“I probably have the draft class that might go down in Hall of Fame history,” Smith said. “We had so many great players, and every single one of them played for another team now. I’m kind of happy that I’m the one who stuck it out.”

MIAMI

CB TYREEK HILL shows an understanding of economics:

@AdamHBeasley

Tyreek Hill on why he’s a Dolphin and not a Jet right now: “State taxes.”

THIS AND THAT

POWER RANKINGS

Bo Wulf of The Athletic ranks the NFL teams from Philadelphia to Houston:

Pretend we’re one quarter into this week’s games so we can say we’re at the three-quarter pole of the 17-game NFL season. The sample sizes might not be as large as we’d like, but four games are enough to give us a sense of every team’s 2022 identity. With that in mind, we move forward with this week’s power rankings, featuring a new team at the top — as if you didn’t already read the headline.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (4-0)     (Last week: 2)

What they are: Nimble.

The undefeated Eagles have proven they can win in a variety of ways. They won an offensive shootout in Week 1 thanks in large part to Jalen Hurts’ scrambling ability. They dominated the Vikings in Week 2 with Hurts’ precision passing and a suddenly aggressive defense. They turned the pressure up in Week 3 with nine sacks, then proved in Week 4 they could take a punch, storming back from a 14-0 deficit against the Jaguars to win 29-21 behind a run-heavy offense that turned the clock back to the second half of last season. Jonathan Gannon was a punching bag for Eagles fans last year and now sports the No. 2 defense in the league by defensive EPA per drive. The offense is No. 8 in EPA per drive and the team is fourth in points per game. There’s a long way to go, but this is the best team in the league so far.

Up next: at Arizona, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET

2. Buffalo Bills (3-1)     (Last week: 3)

What they are: Super Bowl favorites.

There’s a difference between a team like these Bills dead smack in the middle of what should be their Super Bowl window and teams that seem to arrive ahead of schedule or exceed expectations like this year’s Eagles or last year’s Bengals. For those teams, the journey is part of the fun. For the Bills, everything about the regular season sort of feels like prologue. That doesn’t mean wins like the come-from-behind thriller against the Ravens aren’t exhilarating, it just means there’s a temptation to think none of it will matter unless the Bills finish things off in January and February — and to hold your breath every week that injuries won’t keep coming. But players like Josh Allen and teams this good don’t come along often, so it’s worth trying to enjoy the ride. The Bills rank sixth in EPA per drive on offense and third in EPA per drive on defense.

Up next: vs. Pittsburgh, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

3. Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)    (Last week: 4)

What they are: Appointment television.

There’s no one in the league who plays like Patrick Mahomes and there’s no calling plays in the red zone like Andy Reid. The Chiefs rank No. 1 in offensive EPA per drive and No. 1 in EPA per dropback, which makes them the envy of the league, especially with one of the best offensive lines in the game. The 41 points they scored Sunday night were the most allowed by a Todd Bowles defense since the 2018 Jets lost to the Packers 44-38.

Up next: vs. Las Vegas, Monday 8:15 p.m. ET

4. Baltimore Ravens (2-2)   (Last week: 5)

What they are: Committed to the bit.

John Harbaugh’s decision to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the 2-yard line in a 20-20 game with 4:15 left was bold and deserved inspection after it turned into a Lamar Jackson interception. Not only did it mean the Ravens failed to take the lead, but it also set the Bills up on the 20 instead of backed up against their own goal line. But following the right process means following the right process all the time, and Harbaugh explained his decision eloquently. That doesn’t mean there isn’t also a lot to question, like the play call itself, or how softly the defense responded by letting the Bills milk the clock down to a game-winning last-second field goal. Still, the Ravens have shown their upside. Maybe they can petition the league to make the playoffs only three-quarter games.

Up next: vs. Cincinnati, Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET

5. Miami Dolphins (3-1)     (Last week: 1)

What they are: Dangerously irresponsible.

On the field, the Dolphins should be one of the feel-good stories this season with an explosive offense (third in EPA per drive) that has as much speed as any team and one of the most blitz-heavy defenses in the league. But it’s hard to focus on much else in Miami other than the troubling handling of Tua Tagovailoa that seems primed to be held up as exhibition No. 1 in a looming fight between the NFL Players Association and the league on player safety. Tagovailoa has already been ruled out for Week 5 because of the concussion he suffered last Thursday night against the Bengals.

Up next: at New York Jets, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

6. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)       (Last week: 11)

What they are: Figuring things out.

The Bengals have to feel good about where they sit after weathering the storm of an 0-2 start. The defense is playing very well — No. 6 in EPA per drive — while the offense seems to be rounding into form and too talented to stay mired at No. 19 in EPA per drive for long, especially with an improving offensive line.

In terms of football players or coaches with the same homophonic name as a former president, Zac Taylor has probably accomplished enough to lead the way ahead of former Washington tackle John Adams, who started 26 games from 1945 to 1949; linebacker Andrew Jackson, who played 13 games for the Colts in 2014; and Jimmie Carter, who played one game at linebacker for the Rams in 1987.

Up next: at Baltimore, Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2)     (Last week: 7)

What they are: Biding their time.

Is it logical to rank the Bucs ahead of the Packers even though they lost a head-to-head matchup at home and have an inferior record? Only if you think Patrick Mahomes is a more impactful player than Bailey Zappe, which maybe hasn’t been decided yet.

The Bucs, despite giving up 41 points to the Chiefs on Sunday night, deserve the benefit of the doubt to some degree with a defense that was the best in the league through the first three weeks and an offense with aging skill-position players who are just trying to make it to the end of the season healthy. Which team would you rather play in the playoffs? That’s what I thought.

Up next: vs. Atlanta, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

8. Green Bay Packers (3-1)     (Last week: 8)

What they are: Unimpressive.

With a three-game stretch coming up against the Giants, Jets and Commanders, the Packers won’t have a chance to prove they’re serious contenders until a Week 8 trip to Buffalo. It’s probably the perfect time to send Aaron Rodgers, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Allen Lazard to Joshua Tree so they can connect on a higher level for a few weeks while Jordan Love hands the ball off to Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon for some easy victories.

One of the problems with Green Bay is it signaled an offseason shift to become a defense-and-run-first team, and the Packers haven’t really been great at either. They’re allowing a league-high 71.7 completion percentage while blitzing at the second-highest rate in the league. They’re also only 12th in rushing success rate, per TruMedia.

Up next: vs. New York Giants (in London), Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET

9. Los Angeles Rams (2-2)     (Last week: 6)

What they are: Trying to wake up.

The Rams have had the misfortune of playing against two of the league’s best defenses in the first four weeks, which isn’t ideal for a team attempting to play its way into contender shape as the season goes on. The Rams offense ranks all the way down at 28th in EPA per drive and is split between 25th in EPA per dropback and 20th in EPA per rush. But there’s something working underneath the surface — they rank sixth in offensive success rate, per TruMedia. Ill-timed mistakes are hurting them while the defense has been middling (No. 19 in defensive EPA per drive). Lot of ball left, though.

Up next: vs. Dallas, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET

10. San Francisco 49ers (2-2)   (Last week: 16)

What they are: The best defense in football.

The Niners have two of the coolest people in football in Deebo Samuel and DeMeco Ryans. Samuel’s 57-yard touchdown on Monday night was a play that really only he could make, from the ridiculous concentration on the initial catch to the slaloming tackle-breaking and speed on the run. He showed why he’s uniquely perfect for the offense.

Then there’s Ryans, who coordinated one of the best defenses in football last season without any turnover luck and with a slew of injuries, only to come back in 2022 and lead a defense ranked No. 1 in EPA per drive and looks every bit the part of that dominance. The games don’t figure to be easy on offense, but Ryans’ group will keep the Niners in everything. Next week’s trip to Carolina could be a bloodbath.

Up next: at Carolina, Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET

11. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)     (Last week: 9)

What they are: Ahead of schedule.

Things got away from Jacksonville after jumping out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter against the Eagles, including some turnover regression.

After leading the league in turnover differential through the first three weeks, Trevor Lawrence turned the ball over five times against the Eagles. At least two were fumbles partially caused by the difficult weather conditions. Lawrence also overthrew a would-be touchdown pass to Jamal Agnew that would have stemmed the tide of the Eagles’ comeback. And while the previously No. 1 run defense in the league surrendered more than 200 rushing yards, this is still one of the more well-rounded teams in football. They join only the Eagles and Bills in having a positive EPA per drive mark on both sides of the ball.

Up next: vs. Houston, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

12. Dallas Cowboys (3-1)    (Last week: 17)

What they are: Fierce up front.

The Cowboys lead the league in pressure rate (41.7 percent, per TruMedia). If you’re inclined to question a subjective measure like that, as we all should be, they have also hit the quarterback on 36 of 157 dropbacks, per TruMedia, good for a league-best 22.9 percent clip. Bob Sturm has more on the Dallas defense.

After things looked dire following Dak Prescott’s Week 1 injury, the Cowboys are all of a sudden loaded with a potentially elite defense and a returning quarterback just in time for a Week 6 showdown in Philadelphia with big division implications.

Up next: at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET

13. Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)    (Last week: 14)

What they are: Hanging on for dear life.

Rookie sixth-round pick Jamaree Salyer held up well in his starting debut at left tackle in place of Rashawn Slater.

It’s only one game, but that’s an encouraging boost for a franchise that needed one after the difficult week that preceded it. Salyer was a guard at Georgia but has the size (6-foot-4, 324 pounds) and competitive spirit to get the job done on the outside.

Up next: at Cleveland, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

14. Minnesota Vikings (3-1)       (Last week: 10)

What they are: A mayonnaise sandwich.

Saved by a double-doink and two ticky-tack penalties on the Saints’ secondary, the Vikings escaped London with a win. With a favorable schedule the rest of the season, they look like a likely playoff team, despite the No. 25 defense by EPA per drive.

One area in which they should expect some positive regression is Kirk Cousins’ performance against the blitz. Through four games, he ranks 30th of 31 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback against the blitz, which has not historically been an issue for him. Perhaps that’s the kind of thing one should expect to improve over the course of the season in a new offense.

Up next: vs. Chicago, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

15. Denver Broncos (2-2)      (Last week: 13)

What they are: Limited.

It has only been four weeks and there’s plenty of reason to think things will improve as time goes on in a new system with new teammates and a brand-new coaching staff, but the Broncos really might have themselves the worst contract in the league if this is the Russell Wilson they’re getting. He has $124 million guaranteed coming his way over the next three seasons, second only to Deshaun Watson. Right now, he’s 15th in EPA per dropback (Geno Smith is No. 4) and 16th in passing yards for an offense that ranks 21st in EPA per drive and 30th in scoring.

That still represents an upgrade for a franchise that was stuck in the quarterback desert post-Peyton Manning, but it’s a lot to pay for mediocrity. With Javonte Williams out for the season, even more is now on Wilson’s shoulders.

Up next: vs. Indianapolis, Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET

16. Cleveland Browns (2-2)      (Last week: 12)

What they are: The best conventional running team in the league.

By EPA per drive, the Browns have the No. 4 offense in the league. And while Kevin Stefanski has done well to make things simple for Jacoby Brissett, the running game is what powers things for the Browns, who rank second in rushing yards per game and first in EPA per rush (0.21). Meanwhile, the defense has struggled and ranks 28th in EPA per drive despite playing against the following four quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, Mitch Trubisky and Marcus Mariota.

Cleveland will rue its second-to-last offensive possession in which the Browns seemed in position to close things out against the Falcons. Tied at 20 with just under three minutes remaining at the Falcons’ 44-yard line, Brissett threw to an open Harrison Bryant right at the first-down marker. But the two were not quite on the same page, and the ball deflected off the hands of an extending Bryant. Stefanski then punted the ball away (despite an analytically supported suggestion to go for it) and the Falcons went on to kick the winning field goal.

Cleveland now faces a hellacious seven-game stretch before Deshaun Watson’s scheduled return: Chargers, Patriots, at Ravens, Bengals, at Dolphins, at Bills, Buccaneers.

Up next: vs. Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

17. Atlanta Falcons (2-2)       (Last week: 25)

What they are: Surprisingly spicy.

It’s really wild that the Falcons have been able to be so good on offense — No. 9 in EPA per drive and one of six offenses that are above league average in EPA per dropback and EPA per rush — despite borderline icing out last year’s No. 4 pick who was supposed to be the focal point of the offense. Kyle Pitts has 10 catches for 150 yards through four games, which ranks 11th among all tight ends, though he only ranks 22nd in routes run. A weird dynamic and allocation of resources, but one that’s somehow working.

With Cordarrelle Patterson placed on injured reserve, rookie Tyler Allgeier is set to take over the running duties and looked the part Sunday with 10 carries for 84 yards, including a key 42-yarder. The defense ranks 30th in defensive EPA per drive.

Up next: at Tampa Bay, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

18. Arizona Cardinals (2-2)     (Last week: 21)

What they are: A one-man team.

Up next: vs. Philadelphia, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET

19. Tennessee Titans (2-2)     (Last week: 19)

What they are: Wholly competent.

From Joe Rexrode: “The Titans defense continues to throw out lineups featuring plenty of waiver-wire deep cuts. Andrew Adams, signed off the Steelers’ practice squad two weeks earlier, was starting at safety Sunday with Amani Hooker (concussion) out. Dylan Cole and Joe Schobert, the latter of whom was signed last week, shared time filling in at inside linebacker for Zach Cunningham (elbow). Recent signee Terrance Mitchell started and got picked on again at corner with Elijah Molden on IR and Ugo Amadi (ankle) out.

“This defense’s motto should be: ‘Welcome to town, you’re starting Sunday!’ Or maybe: ‘Oh, he’s still in the league? I had no idea!’”

And yet, the Titans have cobbled together an average defense (No. 21 in defensive EPA per drive) and an average offense (No. 18 in EPA per drive). In a league full of extremely flawed teams early, that’s plenty good enough, especially in an AFC South division in which they’re tied atop. Treylon Burks’ turf toe injury is not ideal, especially with the Titans’ patented rushing attack lacking luster. Tennessee ranks 26th in EPA per rush and 26th in yards per carry (3.9). Over the past three years, it has ranked 12th, second and ninth in EPA per rush, and 14th, second and third in yards per carry.

Up next: at Washington, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

20. Detroit Lions (1-3)     (Last week: 15)

What they are: The etrOit LiOns.

Big O, no D. Even without D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Lions put up 45 points on a Seahawks team with a similar structural profile. The Lions rank fifth in EPA per drive on offense and 31st in defensive EPA per drive. T.J. Hockenson’s 179 receiving yards were the most for a tight end this season, and the Lions finished their loss to the Seahawks with touchdowns on their final four possessions.

The defense, though, woof. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is under fire after a game in which it allowed at least a field goal attempt on all eight Seahawks possessions before the end of the game. Colton Pouncy puts it well: “The Lions have scored 140 points through four games — the most in the NFL. Opponents have scored 141 against Detroit — also the most in the NFL. Those 281 points are the most combined by any team through the first four weeks of a season. The Lions became just the 30th team in the Super Bowl era to score 140-plus points in its first four games. They’re the first of that bunch to post a losing record.”

Still, in the long run, bet on offense.

Up next: at New England, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

21. Seattle Seahawks (2-2)    (Last week: 30)

What they are: A fever dream.

Yeah, yeah, Geno Smith is having a better statistical season than Russell Wilson and nothing could possibly make Pete Carroll happier. But how does this four-game sample for Smith compare to past Wilson seasons? Uh …

Up next: at New Orleans, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

22. New York Giants (3-1)    (Last week: 22)

What they are: Good enough to beat bad teams.

The Giants’ 71 passing yards Sunday were the fewest for any team in a win this season and the fewest in the league since the Vikings also beat the Bears on a Monday night game last December. The players in the postgame locker room gave the credit to the coaching staff for figuring things out in the middle of the game after Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor were both injured. Those poor players are all so pleasantly surprised by coaching competency.

Meanwhile, the Giants’ defense, which was considered talent-poor heading into the season, ranks 13th in defensive EPA per drive while playing Wink Martindale’s characteristic style. The Giants rank second in the percentage of time they play man coverage (41.3 percent, per TruMedia) and first in blitz rate (43.4 percent of dropbacks).

Up next: vs. Green Bay (in London), Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET

23. Las Vegas Raiders (1-3)     (Last week: 29)

What they are: Off the schneid.

The Raiders have an uphill battle ahead of them, but the season would have been all but over had they lost to the Broncos. Now they’ve got a fighting chance, with an offense that ranks 10th in EPA per drive, a resurgent Josh Jacobs leading the running game and finally some traction in getting the ball to Davante Adams. They even finally found someone else to sack the quarterback besides Maxx Crosby, although it happened on a cornerback blitz (thank you, Nate Hobbs). The odds are stacked against them, but that’s what Vegas is for.

Up next: at Kansas City, Monday 8:15 p.m. ET

24. New Orleans Saints (1-3)    (Last week: 28)

What they are: Soberingly bad.

The Saints might be having the most disastrous season in the league. The worst thing you can do when running a franchise is be unrealistic in your self-evaluation. And yet, the Saints pushed their chips into the middle this offseason, trading their 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 second-round pick to the Eagles (along with other considerations) to acquire an extra first-round pick and move up a few spots with their original selection. They ended up doing more shuffling at the expense of long-term capital to move up again for Chris Olave (who has looked the part so far).

But this was a team that lost one of the few difference-making head coaches in the league, its Pro Bowl left tackle, part of the core of its highly ranked defense (which is notoriously unsustainable year over year) and had Jameis Winston at quarterback. Now, barring a turnaround, they stare down the possibility of a lost season that won’t even promise the benefit of a high draft pick as compensation. Don’t let your general managers make decisions from Bourbon Street.

Up next: vs. Seattle, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

25. New England Patriots (1-3)     (Last week: 18)

What they are: In trouble.

Bailey Zappe went 10-of-15 for 99 yards and a touchdown in his surprising relief performance of Brian Hoyer against the Packers. Based on that one relief appearance, how many teams in the league would take Zappe as their starter right now if they could? The Texans, Commanders and Panthers, for sure. Definitely the Giants this week. Anyway, Dragon Bail-Z probably has a full coaching career ahead of him down the line.

No big deal for Bill Belichick, whose career record without Tom Brady now stands at 72-82 (36-38 in New England).

Up next: vs. Detroit, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

26. Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1)    (Last week: 20)

What they are: The worst offense in football.

That’s the hard truth through four games. The Colts rank 32nd in EPA per drive on offense, 20th in EPA per dropback and 28th in EPA per rush. They’re scoring a league-worst 14.3 points per game. Matt Ryan has to be wondering what he got himself into, while Frank Reich and Chris Ballard have to be wondering if this is going to be their last chance. Or at least if they can find a new offensive line.

Up next: at Denver, Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET

27. New York Jets (2-2)      (Last week: 31)

What they are: Plucky.

Here’s a stat that shocked me: The Jets lead the entire NFL in plays of 15 yards or more with 38 (31 passing, seven rushing). That comes despite them ranking 26th in EPA per drive and 26th in EPA per dropback. If only they could protect the ball better (nine giveaways), they might really have something bordering competency on offense, which is about all the Jets want to see from Zach Wilson. Something clicked for the Jets on their final two possessions Sunday — touchdown drives of 81 and 65 yards, respectively. They had only gained an average of 20.8 yards per drive on their first nine possessions.

Braxton Berrios joined the one-throw, one-touchdown club with his toss to Wilson for a score in the first half against the Steelers. The last Jets player to do that in a season was Jamison Crowder in 2020, while Curtis Martin is one of four players tied with the modern NFL record for most career passes for a player who only threw touchdowns (two).

Up next: vs. Miami, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

28. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)     (Last week: 23)

What they are: Turning the page.

It remains off that the Steelers didn’t give Kenny Pickett the extra half week to prepare for his first NFL start instead of throwing him in mid-game against the Jets ahead of a daunting stretch that includes three of the top-five defenses in the league (Bucs, Bills and Eagles) over the next four games by EPA per drive.

But it’s nice to now know the stakes of the Steelers season, which is to say developing the player they hope is their franchise quarterback. Mike Tomlin won’t coach like it, and the veteran players on defense won’t think that way, but evaluating Pickett is really all that matters.

Up next: at Buffalo, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

29. Chicago Bears (2-2)     (Last week: 24)

What they are: Playing with both arms tied behind their back.

It’s hard to be so one-dimensional. The Bears are No. 32 in early-down pass rate (41 percent) and are throwing for a ghastly 97.5 yards per game, which would be the lowest for a full season since the 1977 Buccaneers threw for 90.6 yards per game and finished 2-12. To make matters worse, 25-year-old third-round rookie Velus Jones, who would have been red-flagged on some draft boards because of his age, fumbled away a key punt return in his first game as a pro. At least Bears fans are used to bad offense.

Up next: at Minnesota, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

30. Carolina Panthers (1-3)    (Last week: 27)

What they are: Playing out the string.

How about some love for Phil Snow’s defense, which ranks seventh in defensive EPA per drive? The Panthers only have six sacks on the season but rank seventh in pressure rate, while linebacker Frankie Luvu has been a feel-good story.

As for Mayfield and the offense, well, it’s never good when Sam Darnold’s timetable to return is a topic of conversation. Mayfield is chasing Josh Rosen for the distinction of worst EPA per dropback for a starting quarterback over the last five seasons, per TruMedia.

Up next: vs. San Francisco, Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET

31. Washington Commanders (1-3)     (Last week: 26)

What they are: Realizing everyone else was right.

It took some delusion to think the Commanders knew better than the rest of the league about Carson Wentz. That’s what being a fan is all about, but it seems the tide has already turned on the signal caller who ranks 27th of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback. With a middling defense that ranks 17th in EPA per drive, it’s hard to believe there’s any reason for hope in Washington. Politics as usual.

Up next: vs. Tennessee, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

32. Houston Texans (0-3-1)        (Last week: 32)

What they are: Waiting for McCown.

It’s borderline mean how opposing defensive coordinators are treating Davis Mills. He’s being blitzed at a 34 percent clip, second only to Mayfield. Defenses are doing that because Mills has been terrible against the blitz with a -0.32 EPA per dropback, second-worst only to Mac Jones.

Up next: at Jacksonville, Sunday 1 p.m. ET