RANKING THE INCUMBANTS
Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com ranks the 12 teams that made the playoffs in 2019, from KC to the Patriots, on their likelihood of returning:
The New England Patriots are a true anomaly.
Making the playoffs in back-to-back years is quite difficult. Four out of 12 playoff teams from last season have qualified in three straight years or more, including the Kansas City Chiefs (five), Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints (three apiece).
That makes the Patriots’ streak of 11 straight appearances all the more unlikely. And projecting this year’s 14-team playoff picture even harder.
For guidance, ESPN reached out to league execs and coaches to scout last year’s playoff teams. We took that input and ranked playoff chances from one to 12, wearing a white shirt for the tomatoes to be hurled our way.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs committed to more than $600 million by re-signing Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones and Travis Kelce this offseason, because the Super Bowl window is cranked wide open for the next few years.
Kansas City’s offense is the gold standard right.
“You see around the league teams trying to acquire more speed, and the Chiefs are showing how much that helps,” said an AFC exec. “Everybody is chasing them right now, no doubt.”
And the expectation is Mahomes gets better in his fourth season. Perhaps a stout defensive line can hit Mahomes enough to fluster him, but he’s becoming a better runner with 135 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the playoffs last year.
One area of concern is on defense, where the Chiefs are a bit top-heavy. Kansas City showed a knack for splash plays last year but is thin at cornerback with Bashaud Breeland suspended four games due to violation of the NFL’s substance abuse policy.
His replacement, Rashad Fenton, has zero career NFL starts. His counterpart, Charvarius Ward, enters his second year as a starter.
“I’m surprised they didn’t add more help there,” an AFC coach said.
2. Baltimore Ravens
The playoff loss to the Titans fueled the offseason for the Ravens, who addressed issues up front after Derrick Henry ran all over their front for 195 rushing yards in the divisional round.
Getting Calais Campbell in exchange for a fifth-round pick was the perfect start. The addition of Derek Wolfe also helps.
“Love what they did to address their (defensive) line,” an AFC defensive coach said. “They saw an issue and they fixed it. I’m downright nervous about what Calais is going to do in Wink (Martindale’s) defense. They will free him up to make plays.”
Several personnel evaluators believe Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters compose the league’s best cornerback duo in 2020. The Ravens can account for Peters’ chance-taking ways with the steady play of Humphrey, safety Chuck Clark and others.
That the Ravens had considered signing Dez Bryant, who hasn’t played in the NFL since 2017, illustrates Baltimore’s issues with playmaking depth. Lamar Jackson and the passing game need an established third weapon behind Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown (maybe Miles Boykin ends up filling that role).
The running game is well-stocked, with J.K. Dobbins making an early impression in camp.
“They could use one more guy,” an AFC scout said. “Then they will be even stronger.”
3. New Orleans Saints
Everything is set up for the Saints to punctuate Drew Brees’ historic career with a ring.
“That team is absolutely loaded,” one NFL defensive coach said. “At every spot.”
The numbers bear that out: Nine Saints players made ESPN’s top 10 position rankings, including six top-five performers (Brees, Alvin Kamara, Demario Davis, Marshon Lattimore, Terron Armstead, Michael Thomas). And several sleepers, such as center/guard Erik McCoy and defensive tackle David Onyemata, nearly made top 10. There’s a standout player at virtually every position, and no other team can boast that claim.
The Saints even have the most prolific backup quarterback in Jameis Winston, who’s coming off a 5,000-yard season.
All this makes the 2-3 playoff record since 2017 surprising, but it’s worth noting the Saints lost those three games by a combined 14 points on two overtimes, a Kirk Cousins dime and one of the worst non-calls of the last decade. They are due.
Questions persist about Brees’ waning arm strength delivering at the intermediate and deep levels. But as several evaluators point out, he’s so skilled at the line of scrimmage that he offsets any liabilities, completing 70% of his passes with ease.
A few weaknesses pointed out by evaluators: Linebacker opposite Demario Davis and receiver depth. New Orleans is putting a lot on 33-year-old Emmanuel Sanders to complement Michael Thomas. The Saints are high on Tre’Quan Smith to make a jump.
One AFC scout said, “this has got to be a big year for (pass rusher) Marcus Davenport.”
4. San Francisco 49ers
One of the game’s best rosters added a premier left tackle (Trent Williams) and drafted potential stars at defensive tackle (Javon Kinlaw) and wide receiver (Brandon Aiyuk).
But this is not a team without a few concerns. The 49ers have been working out free-agent receivers for the better part of a month due to injuries. During what should be a springboard season for Jimmy Garoppolo, his pass-catching arsenal beyond George Kittle looks unsettled.
Asked about the team’s biggest weakness, one NFC exec pointed to the interior offensive line of Laken Tomlinson, Weston Richburg and Daniel Brunskill.
These are capable players, but hardly a menacing trio.
“That said, if anyone can scheme around that, [Kyle] Shanahan can,” the exec said.
One trio that has a chance to be dominant: The linebackers. Fred Warner has emerged as a top-10 talent at the position, with Kwon Alexander bringing a physical edge and Dre Greenlaw produced 85 tackles as a rookie.
“I know their defensive line is great, but Warner sets a tone for them. Really good against the pass,” said an NFL coordinator. “I like that linebacker corps.”
5. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is linked to virtually every free-agent wide receiver, but largely the franchise feels good about its playmakers.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett compose a high-level duo, with Phillip Dorsett infusing speed into the third receiver spot. The Seahawks have three capable players at tight end and running back. The offensive line is always a wild card in Seattle, but the team is high on third-round rookie Damien Lewis at guard.
Evaluators around the league are waiting to see whether Seattle opens up the offense earlier in games.
“Seattle has been so careful with Russ and the offense, to the point where he’s very cautious about turnovers, which is largely a good thing,” an NFC exec said. “Running the ball and keeping the ball has been their calling card. So I don’t think they will change that a whole lot, but Russ has earned the right … to let it loose a little bit.”
Pass rush remains the primary concern. The 2019 Seahawks ranked next-to-last with 28 sacks and have combed the free-agent pass-rush market for the better part of four months. Evaluators agree Seattle could use one more piece.
6. Green Bay Packers
The Packers are one of the toughest playoff projections. The rest of the NFC North could be dominant or underwhelming, and neither scenario would surprise.
Aaron Rodgers can have his spite season for the team drafting Jordan Love, but he still has limited targets aside from Davante Adams.
“It’s still shocking to me they didn’t get him help,” an NFC exec said. “That’s going to be an issue late in the year.”
Rodgers never has had back-to-back seasons with lower than a 97.0 passer rating, and he doesn’t plan to start now.
“Aaron will be fine. To me, the huge issue was run defense,” a veteran NFL offensive coach said. “It was a big problem last year, and it’s hard to know whether that will be all the way fixed.”
The 26th-ranked rushing defense led to multiple curious blowouts, two at the hands of the 49ers. They added veteran Chris Kirksey at linebacker but largely will look the same with high draft picks all over the field.
One AFC exec looks to the other side of the ball to control the pace.
“That offensive line is really solid,” the exec said. “(David) Bakhtiari still has a few good years left, and they are very good on the interior.”
7. Minnesota Vikings
Intrigue persists about Mike Zimmer’s redone secondary, with the belief that Zimmer doesn’t produce bad defenses, so this should go pretty well.
This is especially true with newly acquired Yannick Ngakoue serving as a potent bookend pass-rusher to Danielle Hunter. One of the league’s sneaky-best rosters looks to break through the proverbial purple ceiling.
Offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s zone system will be friendly to an improving offensive line. The onus is on Kirk Cousins and the passing game to build on last year’s divisional round appearance.
“Kirk is a good player who gets too much criticism sometimes,” an AFC exec said. “He might not be a top guy, but he’s accurate and runs that system very well.”
The Vikings had no choice but to trade Stefon Diggs, who made his unhappiness known a few times. But Diggs was dominant for stretches last year, registering 453 yards on 21 catches from Weeks 6 to 8.
“It will be interesting to see how fast they can get Justin Jefferson up to speed,” the exec said. “They have weapons. But they will need a good No. 2 [at receiver].”
With Dalvin Cook set to enter a contract year, expect the Vikings to give Cook the ball 300-plus times in 2020.
8. Houston Texans
The Texans’ reconfiguration at receiver might just work but is considered a gamble.
“Two of your best receivers have had trouble staying healthy,” one NFL personnel evaluator said. “That’s a problem.”
Will Fuller V has missed 20 games since 2017, and though Brandin Cooks has generally been a reliable option, he must rebound from concussion scares that cost him two games a year ago.
All of this applies even more heat on Deshaun Watson, who makes plays on the move better than almost anyone. But, if healthy, the pieces can fit. David Johnson is 28 and not far removed from a dominant stint with Arizona. Watson will break patterns and create enough for the Texans to move the ball, and the offensive line should be better.
The Texans have a playmaking linebacker duo with Zach Cunningham and Benardrick McKinney. But one evaluator said the Texans defense doesn’t scare like it did two or three years ago.
“J.J. (Watt) is the guy you really fear and he’s been hurt,” the evaluator said, citing Watt’s 32 games missed since 2016. “If you double J.J., not sure who beats you.”
9. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have plenty to overcome before the season even starts.
Philadelphia entered the offseason with All-Pro Brandon Brooks at guard and former first-round pick Andre Dillard at right tackle. Now, Matt Pryor, a player with one career start, and Jason Peters, signed to play guard at age 38, take over those spots after Brooks and Dillard were lost to season-ending injuries.
“It’s gonna be all on Carson Wentz to put together a full season and elevate that team,” an NFC exec said. “He’s very talented, but obviously the injuries have hurt him. He will have more speed on the outside this year.”
First-round pick Jalen Reagor is eliciting plenty of bold predictions about his season based on buzz created in camp. And watch out for J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, who looks poised to rebound from a choppy rookie year. He’s had a very strong camp.
Evaluators agree new defensive additions Javon Hargrave and Darius Slay upgrade the line and secondary in big ways. Slay, in particular, is a luxury the team simply hasn’t had on the back end in a while. Slay’s 56.4 Pro Football Focus ranking last year in Detroit isn’t ideal, but many evaluators give him a pass because he ran heavy man coverage without much pass-rush help, and his relationship with the Lions had soured.
10. Buffalo Bills
How Stefon Diggs impacts the Bills offense has created considerable buzz in league circles.
A balanced offense lacking star power gets a major lift with Diggs, who’s a borderline top-10 receiver. Word out of Buffalo is the Bills will use him all over the field in multiple looks, inside and out.
“The offense will be better if Josh Allen is accurate,” an NFL defensive coach said. “But that’s such a wild card and impossible to quantify.”
Added an NFL personnel man: “Diggs could be in for a rude awakening if that ball isn’t there on time, because he’s a precise route runner.”
Even if Allen completes less than 60% of his throws for the third consecutive year, evaluators like the Bills’ chances to win more often than not, because of the way they are built.
Head coach Sean McDermott has a defense that limits big plays and can win low-scoring games by controlling the tempo.
Many are expecting big things from defensive tackle Ed Oliver in Year 2, despite a slow start to his career. He’s considered too talented not to put it all together.
11. Tennessee Titans
The Titans ended the season with more momentum than almost any team, blasting through the first two rounds of the playoffs before the Chiefs set them aside.
Now, people around the league are curious how Tennessee evolves the quarterback who earned a $118-million extension despite being trusted to throw just 23 times per game over 15 contests.
“Will they allow Ryan Tannehill to throw early and often is my question,” an NFL personnel evaluator said. “They used the threat of the run with play-action early, then pounded with Derrick Henry. If defenses adjust to that, Ryan will have to win them some games with his arm.”
That evaluator said the loss of right tackle Jack Conklin is significant, but the line is good enough.
Expect a sizable jump from A.J. Brown and Jonnu Smith at the playmaking spots. There’s immense talent there.
The team still needs one more pass-rusher. The Titans have tracked Jadeveon Clowney for months, but won’t budge on a price tag believed to be above $15 million.
12. New England Patriots
Bill Belichick can enlarge his carving on the Mount Rushmore of NFL coaches if he wins 10 or more games with this roster. The loss of Tom Brady doesn’t account for an offense thin on high-caliber talent.
New England likely starts a mid-round rookie at tight end (Devin Asiasi), and its best receiver (Julian Edelman) turned 34 in May. The Patriots are stout at four offensive linemen spots but lack depth otherwise. Running back is arguably the one skill position on offense with good depth.
New England lost several key starters — tackle Marcus Cannon, safety Patrick Chung and linebacker Dont’a Hightower — to opt-outs. And many evaluators have questions about whether Cam Newton still has it.
“If [Belichick] wins big with this team, he deserves even more credit,” an NFL personnel evaluator said. “This is not a very talented offense. Whoever the quarterback is won’t have an easy time.”
But you can never discount the Patriots’ championship pedigree and Belichick’s deft ability to figure things out midseason. That’s why success would hardly surprise the rest of the league.
With the game’s best cornerback in Stephon Gilmore, plenty of veteran pieces and a buzzworthy young safety in Kyle Dugger, the Patriots defense will be effective as usual, many evaluators agree.
So he has the Texans ahead of the Titans?
And both Buffalo and New England in the bottom three? Someone has to win the AFC East.
We also question the Packers up at number 6.
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