@AndyMSFW

Two games in and Minnesota Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy remains tied atop the rookie leaderboard for TD passes

He doesn’t have any TD passes, but Washington’s JAYDEN DANIELS has done everything else right including 2 TD runs:

Stats through two weeks

40 for 53 for 410 yards 0 TDs 0 INTs, 26 rushes for 132 yards 2 TDs

That 75.5% completion percentage is 3^rd in the NFL.

– – –

Meanwhile, kickers are more accurate than ever from long range – except one:

Kicking field goals from beyond 50 yards has become so easy for NFL kickers that making them is virtually automatic. Except for the best kicker ever.

Ravens kicker Justin Tucker, who for many years was the best kicker the NFL had ever seen, is now the only kicker in the league who has missed multiple field goals from beyond 50 yards.

Tucker is 0-for-2 on 50-yard field goals this season. The rest of the NFL is 35-for-37.

What’s wrong with Tucker? He says he’s not worried about it — even though he also went just 1-for-5 from 50 yards and beyond last season.

“Trying to overanalyze or dwell on a mistake or a performance that is not up to our collective standard, that’s not going to do us any good,” Tucker said. “What is going to help us is continuing to trust the process, and just come together as a team, and get to work. This is a long season. We’re 0-2, but we have every reason to be confident. We can clean up some things. I think everybody in here would say the real accountability is taking the burden of blame on yourself so somebody else doesn’t have to. And everybody else in this locker room is built just like that. I think we’re going to be just fine. We’re going to be a really good football team.”

Tucker aside, however, field goals from beyond 50 yards have become shockingly easy. League-wide, kickers are making 90 percent of their field goals from 50 yards and longer, which is unprecedented in NFL history. As temperatures get colder and more games are affected by bad weather, those numbers will probably go down a little. But what we’re seeing right now represents a revolution in kicking in the NFL, with kickers getting so good that they’re redefining what constitutes field goal range.

– – –

The best performance of the 49ers-Vikings game came from the back judge.  Scott Johnson of Powerline:

The biggest play in the 49ers-Vikings game on CBS this past Sunday was Sam Darnold’s 97-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Back judge Tyree Walton turned in an incredible performance himself on the play, keeping up with the players as he ran down the field and finished off motoring backwards with his eye on the play.

I believe Rodger Sherman was the first to draw attention to Mr. Walton in the tweet below. In a follow-up tweet he noted that Walton is “a former Division II running back at Adams State in his second year as an NFL official.” Our local Fox affiliate adds that he is a private wealth adviser at U.S. Bank and worked as a back judge in the Big 12 before moving to the NFL.

Watch it here if you haven’t already seen it.

CHICAGO

Last year’s #1 overall pick QB BRYCE YOUNG has been benched.

How is this year’s #1 overall pick doing?

@austingayle_

Caleb Williams’ 3.0 net yards per attempt is the worst for any quarterback in Weeks 1 and 2 in the last 10 years.

MINNESOTA

Mike Sando of The Athletic explores whether the early success of QB SAM DARNOLD is real or a mirage:

Beating the New York Giants in Week 1 was one thing. Upsetting the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers on Sunday was another. Time to believe in Darnold?

First off, Darnold playing well for the Vikings isn’t a shock to everyone. Before Mueller left The Athletic and joined the New Orleans Saints’ front office last month, the former NFL Executive of the Year made a film-based case for Darnold reviving his career in Minnesota.

Mueller lauded the Vikings for doing what so many teams fear: moving on from an expensive veteran quarterback (Kirk Cousins) without knowing what the future holds.

That plan included signing Darnold for one year and $10 million, before it was known Minnesota could maneuver in the draft for the since-injured J.J. McCarthy. Mueller loved the plan partly because he thought Darnold’s 2023 tape with San Francisco showed progress.

“For the first time in this kid’s career, he had answers in his backpack to make decisions that helped him make progressions, reads, and he had an offensive line that actually protected him,” Mueller said then. “I think Sam Darnold was in horrible situations before he got to San Francisco, but he played really good in San Francisco in some film that, for me, was easy to decipher his strengths and weaknesses.”

It’s early to draw conclusions. Darnold started 2-0 with Carolina in 2021 during his last starting opportunity. Then as now, his team’s defense was a driver of team success – better than average by more than two touchdowns per game. The Vikings’ defense, led by second-year coordinator Brian Flores, is off to its best two-game start since at least 2000 by total EPA (expected points added) and EPA per play.

Darnold is keeping interesting company among veteran quarterbacks voted into Tier 4 in the 11 years of QB Tiers.

Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield and Tua Tagovailoa are the encouraging comps. All three climbed into higher tiers after struggling early in their careers and landing in Tier 4, which includes veteran quarterbacks who ideally would not start a full season. So many others faded away. Smith and Mayfield are cleaner comps than Tagovailoa because they changed teams.

Darnold is among 61 quarterbacks voted into Tier 4 since 2014.

Twenty-three of the other 60 are relevant comps for Darnold. That is the number after removing young prospects (20 or fewer career starts, such as Bryce Young this year) and journeymen with more than than 70 (Mark Sanchez, latter-career Joe Flacco etc.).

The three success stories — Smith, Mayfield and Tagovailoa — steadied their careers once paired with supportive head coaches/offensive coordinators and formidable No. 1 receivers. Darnold checks those boxes in Minnesota with coach Kevin O’Connell and wideout Justin Jefferson, who scored on a 97-yard reception from Darnold against the 49ers on Sunday.

Darnold ranks third in yards per attempt (9.5) through two games and sixth in passer rating (111.8). He’s 14th in EPA per pass play.

The Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers and New York Jets are next on the schedule for the Vikings. Minnesota will have better feeling by its Week 6 bye as to whether Darnold’s solid start is sustainable.

PHILADELPHIA

Here is what Warren Sharp would have done with 3^rd and 3 up 3 just inside the two-minute warning (with an assist from @PatterZone):

@SharpFootball

just a reminder of every Eagles run needing 3 or fewer yards:

(was 3rd & 3 when they passed to Saquon)

4th&3: Hurts run for 23 = 1st

3rd&2: Hurts run for 12 = 1st

2nd&1: Barkley run for 5 = 1st

4th&1: Hurts run for 3 = 1st

2nd&1: Hurts run for 2 = 1st

1st&1: Hurts run for 1 =TD

3rd&1: Hurts run for 1 = 1st

12:38 AM · Sep 17, 2024

·

@PatterZone

Even if not converting, ATL would have had a 20-25 yard longer field for a TD and there is a really high chance of them settling for the FG and playing much more conservatively on 3rd down in FG range. Combined this with the possibility of converting and winning, a no brainer…

Warren Sharp

@SharpFootball

·

11h

absolutely I believe ATL plays to get in FG range rather than what they did, agree here 100%

I run on 3rd with 1:46 left

I run on 4th with  :59 left

if I can’t pick up 3 yds on 2 runs…

I give ATL the ball on their 8-yd line with :52 left, down 3

Where they probably play for a FG, so OT at worst, instead of an outright loss.

More on the Eagles meltdown in ATLANTA

ATLANTA

The Falcons chances of beating the Eagles were under 1% as we came back from the two-minute warning.  But Philly RB SAQUAN BARKLEY dropped an easy pass – and the rest is history.  Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com:

Kirk Cousins needed a big moment on Monday night. So did the Atlanta Falcons.

The Falcons’ offense had just two touchdowns for the season when Cousins took over with 1:39 left in the game, needing a touchdown and having to go 70 yards to get it for the win. Suddenly Cousins came alive.

Cousins moved the team quickly downfield. Cousins completed 5 of 6 passes on a quick drive and hit Drake London for a 7-yard touchdown with 34 seconds left. The extra point was harder after London got a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, but Younghoe Koo hit it and the Falcons led 22-21. Jalen Hurts threw an interception under pressure after that and the game was over.

The Eagles were in position to win. But on a third-and-3, Saquon Barkley dropped a wide-open pass that would have resulted in either a touchdown or a first down that would have ended the game. That drop allowed Cousins to have his first big moment for the Falcons.

Up until that point, the Falcons had to be a little worried about their $180 million quarterback and where the season was headed. All he’s heard through his career is that he’s not clutch and that he shrinks in prime time. Then he came up with a drive that might change the trajectory of the early portion of Atlanta’s season.

– – –

The Eagles picked up some first downs after that and ran down the clock. But the big drop by Barkley on third down stopped the clock at 1:42, giving the Falcons another chance to win. After an Eagles field goal gave them a 21-15 lead, Cousins had one more chance to drive his team 70 yards for a touchdown and the win.

To that point, the Falcons and Cousins hadn’t done much. But he came up with a surgical drive to win it. That’s what the Falcons paid $180 million for.

Ah, we had the sound down so we couldn’t figure out what did WR DRAKE LONDON do to get the 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.  He shook his fingers like a gun going off…

That’s when things got interesting. London celebrated by pretending to fire a gun into the air while standing right next to an official. A flag was thrown and the game-winning extra point had to be taken from 48 yards out.

Luckily, kickers are awesome these days and Younghoe Koo drilled it. Here’s the entire sequence that flipped the result of the game.

London was penalized for what the NFL considers a “violent gesture.” Deshaun Watson and David Njoku were previously fined for gun-related celebrations last season.

Once you know what your looking for, you see it – but man….

NEW ORLEANS

Dan Graziano of ESPN.com – ask and answered are the Saints the best team in the NFL?

The Saints are the best team in the NFC

Just as everyone predicted, the NFC’s 2-0 teams are the Vikings, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Saints. The Eagles can join that club with a Monday night victory over Atlanta, in which case Philadelphia would certainly have a claim to this title. But none of those other teams has been as dominant in both weeks so far as the Saints, who have scored on 16 of their 21 drives, with touchdowns on 11 of them. And by the way, they also looked pretty darn good on defense against Dak Prescott’s bunch Sunday.

New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is using motion more than the Saints ever have, and the players have bought in — they looked way too fast and way too creative for the Cowboys in this game. Their protection schemes worked beautifully against Parsons, who after the game said it felt as if he was fighting his way through a “maze” at times. It helped quarterback Derek Carr finish with a 99.4 Total QBR, his best in any game in his NFL career. It was total domination by a big underdog, and the Saints surely headed home to New Orleans on Sunday night feeling awfully good about themselves.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

This is too easy. I’m willing to admit I was way, way, way wrong about a Saints offense I thought would struggle because of offensive line issues. But no matter how impressive these two weeks have been, I am not willing to say New Orleans is the best team in the NFC yet.

The Saints have my attention and respect, but over the course of a four-month regular season, I’m still figuring teams like the 49ers, Lions and Eagles have a chance to come out ahead. Heck, I’m not sure the 2-0 Buccaneers won’t end up ahead of the Saints in the NFC South division, let alone the conference. You have to think at some point an opposing defense will figure something out and hold them under 40 points. Get back to me this time next week if they’ve managed to beat Philadelphia.

ARIZONA

This is an unusual take from WR MARVIN HARRISON, Jr.:

@NFL_DovKleiman

Marvin Harrison Jr. was asked about the massive game he had against the #Rams:

“Not going to lie to you, I think I saw Kyler’s stat line. Had four incompletions, all were to me. Not very happy about that.”

Phenomenal answer from the rookie!

It’s true, Mayfield was 13-13 for 136 yards throwing to everyone else, 4-8 for 130 with Harrison as the target.

Even with his four incompletions, the NFL deems him perfect as a passer and his rushing took him into more elite company.  Cards PR chief Mark Dalton:

@CardsMarkD

Kyler Murray’s game jersey & ball from Sunday’s 41-10 win vs Rams are headed to Canton to be displayed at the Pro Football HOF.

Murray became just 2nd player in NFL history with 250+ passing yds, 50+ rushing yds & a perfect 158.3 passer rating (other: CIN’s Ken Anderson, 1974)

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Now, the Rams will be without their two best WRs for an extended period, leaving DEMARCUS ROBINSON and TYLER JOHNSON (?!?!?!) as the top two.  Ian Casselberry of YahooSports.com:

Los Angeles Rams receiver Cooper Kupp is expected to miss “an extended period of time” with an ankle injury and could go on injured reserve, according to head coach Sean McVay.

Kupp suffered the injury during Week 2’s 41–10 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. During the first quarter, his left ankle was rolled while being tackled. He was helped off the field, but walked to the locker room without assistance — albeit with a noticeable limp.

Following the game, Kupp was seen wearing a walking boot on his left leg as he left the locker room.

Prior to leaving the game, Kupp had four receptions for 37 yards. In Week 1’s loss to the Detroit Lions, he caught 14 passes for 110 yards and one touchdown.

Kupp’s injury leaves the Rams without their top two receivers. Puka Nacua is expected to be out 5-7 weeks after sustaining a sprained PCL in his right knee against Detroit and being placed on injured reserve.

With Kupp and Nacua out, Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson take over as the Rams’ top receivers. Robinson has six catches for 11 yards this season, while Johnson has seven receptions for 99 yards.

This will be the third consecutive season during which Kupp has missed time due to injury. Last season, he missed the first four games of the season because of a strained hamstring. In 2022, Kupp suffered a sprained ankle that limited him to nine games.

When healthy and able to play all 17 games in 2021, Kupp had a spectacular campaign in which he led the NFL with 145 receptions, 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns.

The Rams (0–2) host the San Francisco 49ers (1–1) in Week 3 on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET.

SAN FRANCISCO

The Seahawks and Cardinals are getting a path to surprise NFC West candidacies, as the Rams and Niners are reeling with injuries.  Grant Gordon of NFL.com:

There are more injury woes for the San Francisco 49ers to contend with at their skill positions.

Wide receiver Deebo Samuel will miss “a couple” of weeks due to a calf strain, head coach Kyle Shanahan announced Monday.

Samuel was injured late in the 49ers’ Week 2 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.

Samuel’s absence, an obstacle to overcome on its own, is magnified with running back Christian McCaffrey already on injured reserve dealing with calf and Achilles injuries.

Through two games this year, Samuel has recorded 13 receptions for 164 yards, both team highs, along with 10 carries for 13 yards and a rushing touchdown.

Samuel’s no stranger to injury woes, as he’s never played a full regular season since he was drafted by San Francisco in the 2019 NFL Draft’s second round.

Niners-Rams this week without Deebo, CMC, Puka and Cooper.

DENVER

Sean Payton says we should blame him for the Broncos inability to do anything on offense.  Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com:

– Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton often says there are many “dirty hands” on plays, games and seasons that don’t go well.

And he had a clear message after the Broncos’ 13-6 defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday at Empower Field at Mile High — one in which he shouldered much of the blame.

“Look, I just finished telling the offensive coaches, that side of the ball needs to get cleaned up, and that starts with me,” Payton said. “We’ve got to start really looking at who we’re asking to do what. … Are we putting our guys in the best position? We’re rotating a lot of personnel groups in and out, and I don’t know if that’s helping us, honestly. We just need to evaluate that closely.”

The Broncos (0-2) have scored 26 points in two games — four of those coming from the defense. Their two top running backs are averaging a combined 2.3 yards per carry, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix has thrown more red zone interceptions (two) than the Broncos have touchdowns (one).

Nix had the lone touchdown — a 4-yard run late in the Week 1 loss to the Seattle Seahawks — on seven Broncos drives that reached the red zone. Those results have prompted Payton to say that he’ll take a long look at what the coaching staff is asking Nix and other offensive players to do.

“What scheme fits our players? What scheme fits our quarterback?” Payton said, relaying his thought process after the first two games.

Few things illustrate the growing disconnect more than Denver’s lack of a running game. Payton has repeatedly said it is vital the Broncos run the ball with intent and efficiency to help Nix through the usual rookie quarterback growing pains.

Yet after two games, Nix leads the team with 60 rushing yards, mostly on scrambles to escape trouble in the pocket. That’s 20 more than lead back Javonte Williams, who has averaged only 2.1 yards per carry. Third-down back Jaleel McLaughlin is averaging 2.5 yards.

More troubling than the lack of rushing success is the lack of commitment to establishing the run. In a game in which the Broncos’ defense shut down the Steelers after an opening touchdown drive and kept the game within striking distance, Payton essentially stopped calling run plays. This contradicted his talk in the days leading into the game, in which Payton said establishing the run was one of the most important factors to securing a victory.

The Broncos had seven rushing attempts in the first half Sunday and didn’t have their 10th rushing attempt until there were less than nine minutes left in the third quarter. They finished the game with 35 Nix passes to 19 runs (four of them by the quarterback), along with two Steelers sacks of Nix. The Broncos’ loss to Seattle in the opener saw a similar imbalance, as Nix had 51 dropbacks in the game — including two plays ruled as rushes because they were backward passes by Nix — compared to 20 called runs.

“We went into the game kind of expecting a low-scoring game,” Payton said of Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh. “We felt it was going to be very important for us to be patient with the run game and play field position.”

When asked about the seven first-half rushing attempts when the stated goal entering the game was to be patient, Payton added: “How many snaps at the half? 20? So seven of 20. We just got to keep looking at it, and that starts with me. I’m calling the plays.”

Nix said after Sunday’s loss that he remains confident in what he can do despite his struggles and the offense’s ineffectiveness. But he hasn’t been able to compensate for his own mistakes, the biggest of which came midway through the third quarter Sunday.

A 26-yard completion to Courtland Sutton and a 49-yard completion to Josh Reynolds on a trick play in which Nix initially lined up out wide in the formation got the Broncos to the Steelers’ 7-yard line. Down 10-0, the Broncos found themselves in a second-and-goal situation from the Steelers’ 6 after a 1-yard run by Williams. Payton eschewed another run play and put Nix in the shotgun. Under pressure from the Steelers’ front, Nix threw a somewhat sidearm lob off his back foot into the end zone, which Steelers cornerback Cory Trice Jr. intercepted. It ended up being the only drive in which the Broncos advanced inside the Pittsburgh 10-yard line.

“There was some dirty hands on that play,” Payton said.

“That falls on me,” Nix said. “That was just a bad decision. [You] can’t have that.”

LAS VEGAS

The Raiders had one of their biggest wins in years Sunday (we think) in Baltimore – but Coach Antonio Pierce says they will get better.

The Raiders pulled off an impressive comeback in the final minutes of Sunday’s game in Baltimore as they went from 10 points down to 26-23 winners over the Ravens, but head coach Antonio Pierce isn’t focusing on the way things ended.

Pierce said on Monday that Sunday’s fourth quarter effort is “what it needs to look like for all four quarters.” On Sunday, the Raiders punted on all three of their first quarter possessions before turning the ball over in the second quarter and they didn’t make it into the end zone until there were less than three minutes left in the third quarter.

Pierce wants the Raiders to make sure they don’t repeat that kind of effort by easing up as they move toward a Week Three game against the hapless Panthers.

“We’ve got a lot of things that we need to correct,” Pierce said, via Mark Anderson of the Associated Press. “It was a win yesterday, but there were a lot of things in that first quarter that were ugly, in that first half that were ugly and in that third quarter that were ugly. We’re not worried about the Panthers. We’ve got to fix the Raiders.”

One thing the Raiders can emulate from the fourth quarter in Baltimore is putting the ball in the hands of wide receiver Davante Adams and tight end Brock Bowers. The team has not run the ball well, but Adams and Bowers overwhelmed the Ravens down the stretch and getting them more involved earlier in games could help open other things up as defenses try to keep those two from running wild.

HOUSTON

The Texans are seething because RB JOE MIXON is going to be out after the Bears used an uncalled hip-drop tackle to hurt him.  DJ Bien-Amie of ESPN.com:

Houston Texans coach DeMeco Ryans, having reviewed film of the play, said Monday he believes running back Joe Mixon’s ankle injury Sunday night was caused by Chicago Bears linebacker T.J. Edwards using the now-banned hip-drop tackle.

Edwards was not penalized for the tackle, which occurred early in the third quarter of Houston’s 19-13 win over Chicago. Mixon left the game to get treatment on the ankle and returned late in the third quarter, but played only seven snaps the rest of the way.

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After the game, Ryans said he wasn’t sure if Mixon was brought down using the swivel hip-drop tackle. But he said Monday that after reviewing the play, he was certain Edwards had applied the rugby tackling technique that the NFL in March elected to ban given the many lower leg injuries it has caused.

“[The tackle] definitely in my mind, is considered the hip-drop,” Ryans said. “When the defender unweights himself and then he puts all of his weight on the runner’s legs, you see why they want to get the hip-drop tackle out of the game. Because it causes a lot of injuries when it happens. The hip-drop tackle doesn’t happen much, but the percentage of injury when it does happen is very high and you saw that there with Joe and his ankle. The defender landed on his ankle.”

As for a timeline on when Mixon could return to the field, Ryans didn’t give a clear indication.

“We’ll see on the injury,” he said. “We’ll evaluate Joe as we go throughout the week. Just take it day by day.”

The Texans play the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3 and could be without Mixon and backup Dameon Pierce, who missed Week 2 with a hamstring injury. If they’re without both, expect Cam Akers, who rushed for 32 yards with a fumble in Week 2, to get most of the carries.

Mixon did not speak to reporters after Sunday’s game but called out the NFL on social media for not enforcing the rule

“The NFL and NFLPA made it a rule and an emphasis for a reason,” Mixon wrote on X. “Time to put your money where your mouth is.”

INDIANAPOLIS

Can anyone challenge the Texans in the AFC South?

 ‘We suck right now’ is putting it mildly in the AFC South

The Houston Texans are 2-0.

The rest of the AFC South is 0-6 and difficult to watch.

“We suck right now,” was how Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence summed up his team’s offense.

The Jags are not alone.

These are long seasons, and for as embarrassing as it must have been for the Colts to fall 16-10 at Green Bay to the Malik Willis-quarterbacked Packers, Indy has lost two games by a total of eight points. It shouldn’t be reason to panic. It’s just tough when your passing game lacks the precision to sustain drives and your run defense allows 200 yards each week, and your best defensive lineman, DeForest Buckner, keeps getting hurt.

 “We got to hit our base plays because we can’t always just rely on the big shots,” Colts receiver Michael Pittman said.

That’s going to be tough with quarterback Anthony Richardson averaging 13.7 air yards per attempt, by far the highest average in the league. Lawrence ranks second at 11.2, an indication these offenses are lacking the rhythm created when quarterbacks connect on routine shorter passes consistently. Nothing looks easy for these passing games.

We knew Tennessee’s Will Levis would struggle, and we knew Richardson would lack consistency as a passer. But if this is what the Jaguars are going to look like three years into the Doug Pederson/Lawrence marriage, so much for that $55 million-a-year extension Lawrence recently signed, right? Road games against Buffalo and Houston over the next two weeks will turn up the pressure.

All four AFC South teams are out of the division this week.  The Texans have a battle of the unbeatens with at Minnesota.  The Jaguars and Titans have tough games with Buffalo and Green Bay.  The Colts get to muck around with the Bears.

NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots defense takes a big hit.  Bryan DeArdo of CBSSports.com:

On Sunday, the New England Patriots lost a lot more than their Week 2 game against the Seattle Seahawks. They also reportedly lost standout linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley for the year after he tore his pec during New England’s loss to Seattle, according to NFL Media.

A team captain, Bentley sustained the injury during the first quarter and was initially labeled as questionable to return. Fellow linebacker Oshane Ximines also left Sunday’s game early with an injury.

The 28-year-old Bentley is a valuable part of the Patriots defense. He had more than 100 tackles each of the last three seasons and had 12 tackles and 0.5 sacks in New England’s Week 1 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

A 2018 fifth-round pick, Bentley has spent his entire career in New England. As a rookie, he made two starts before suffering a season-ending injury. The Patriots won their sixth and most recent Super Bowl that season.

Bentley returned in 2019 and emerged as New England’s top linebacker in 2020. He logged 91 tackles and 1.5 that season, his first as a full-time starter. Bentley’s play continued to improve over the last three years. Last year, Bentley had 114 tackles while setting a career-high 4.5 sacks.

Raekwon McMillan is slated to replace Bentley in the starting lineup. A 2017 second-round pick, McMillan is in the middle of his fourth season in New England after breaking into the NFL with the Dolphins and spending the 2020 season in Las Vegas. He had 33 career starts that included one start for the Patriots during the 2022 season. He returned to the fold this year after missing all of the 2023 season after injuring his Achilles that spring.

THIS AND THAT

RANKING THE 0-2 TEAMS

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com ranks the 0-2 teams from Bengals to Panthers (as always with Barnwell, stealth edits):

Beginning a season with back-to-back losses leaves an NFL team in dire straits. Since the league moved to its 32-team format in 2002, about one in every 10 teams to start 0-2 has made it to the postseason. Last season, of the nine teams that started the season with two consecutive defeats, the Texans were the only team to advance to the playoffs.

If a team falls to 0-3, though, it had might as well start making vacation plans for January. Again going back to 2002, 103 squads have started the season with three straight defeats. The 2018 Texans are the only one that managed to turn things around and make it to the postseason. The 2013 Steelers could be added to the list by pretending the league had a 14-team playoff over that time. That’s two in 103. The chances are just below 2%.

So now, just two weeks into the season, nine teams face what amounts to must-win games next weekend. Let’s run through those teams and their chances of being the one in 10 that turns things around. I’ll start with the franchises that have the best chance of righting the ship and end with those furthest away from contention. At this time last season, I was the most skeptical of the Texans, and they proved me wrong by going 10-5 the rest of the way. Can any team match them in 2024?

No. 1 on this list is the team I’m still most optimistic about. And as a surprise, it’s not the team that won 13 games a year ago. Instead, it’s a rival of that team that should be able to ride a friendly schedule over the next couple of weeks back to the .500 mark:

1. Cincinnati Bengals

Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 43.2%

I wrote last week about a frustrating Bengals loss at the hands of the Patriots. They played much better against the Chiefs on Sunday and probably deserved to win, but they experienced a rerun of one of their least favorite moments at exactly the wrong time. After a late penalty set up the Chiefs in field goal range and knocked the Bengals out in the 2022 AFC Championship Game, a pass interference call on fourth-and-16 Sunday extended the game for Kansas City and yielded a Harrison Butker game winner to push Cincinnati to 0-2.

For the second straight week, a fumble also victimized Cincinnati’s chances. In Week 1, Tanner Hudson’s fumble inside the 5-yard line cost it a touchdown. This week, it was a strip sack of Joe Burrow that was recovered by the Chiefs and returned for a score. The Bengals have fumbled six times through three games, a remarkable total for a team that fumbled only 10 times last season.

There were positives Sunday. The clear game plan from the Chiefs, facing a Bengals team without injured Tee Higgins for the second consecutive week, was to lock up Ja’Marr Chase and force Burrow to find his other receivers. Chase had only four catches on five targets for 35 yards, but everybody else ate. Mike Gesicki led the way with seven catches for 91 yards. Andrei Iosivas had two catches for 7 yards, but both went for scores, including a fourth-and-short catch. Jermaine Burton had a key catch for 47 yards to help set up that Iosivas score. Nobody captured any videos of Burrow to help foster conspiracy theories about his wrist. Usually that’s enough to win. Before Sunday, when he has posted a QBR of 50 or better on throws to his receivers who aren’t Chase or Higgins, he had gone 17-0. He posted a 66.0 mark in the loss. That’s a positive sign, even if it didn’t lead to a victory.

I’m optimistic about the Bengals because of what comes next: Four of their next five games are against the Commanders, Panthers, Giants and Browns, albeit with three of those four coming on the road. Their next home game is against the Ravens in a matchup that might decide which of these two teams is in position to turn things around in the AFC North.

2. Baltimore Ravens

Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 40.2%

I don’t know if alarm bells were going off in Baltimore after the Ravens lost to the Chiefs in Week 1. Losing to the Raiders at home, though, should have everyone’s attention. One year after going 13-4 and wowing advanced metrics with their regular-season performance, the Ravens are 0-2. It’s the first time since 2020 that a Lamar Jackson-led team has lost two straight, let alone two straight to begin the season.

Some of their problems could be expected and are straight out of their entry in the likely-to-decline column from before the season. After posting a league-best plus-12 turnover differential last season, they have been even through two games, with one giveaway and one takeaway in each of contest. Their red zone dominance has faded; an offense that converted nearly 62% of its red zone trips into touchdowns is 3-for-7, while a defense that allowed touchdowns 40.8% of the time last season is 3-for-6.

The offensive line is a work in progress.

What has been more surprising is just how bad the Ravens have been in coverage.

Even worse, their special teams appear to be falling apart. Justin Tucker missed a 56-yard field goal Sunday, leading to the world discovering his leg appears to be weakening. He has gone 1-of-7 on kicks of 50 yards or more since the start of 2023, including four misses in a row.

I have to poke a couple of holes in those concerns. Tucker’s leg has led the Ravens to try deeper kicks than the ones most other kickers would attempt over that stretch. In addition to the 56-yard miss, he had a 55-yarder blocked and missed from 59 and 61 yards last season. He hit a 50-yarder and also booted through a 53-yarder in the divisional round against the Texans last season. I’d argue other kickers getting better from 50-plus has limited his advantage on the field, but I wouldn’t be too worried about him.

The more damaging play for the Ravens might have instead been on the punting unit, where Jordan Stout shanked one at a critical moment. With the score tied and the Baltimore offense running off the field after a three-and-out and 2:27 to go, Stout managed a 24-yard punt out of bounds from his own 25-yard line, meaning the Raiders took over in Ravens territory. It also was penalized for having a player go out of bounds, turning the punt into a 19-yarder. Las Vegas needed one first down to get in field goal range and had no trouble getting there, setting up Daniel Carlson’s game winner.

There’s work to be done here. The defense has to take away the big plays. I’d like to see more consistent play from the offense. Jackson seemed to find more rhythm in the second half once the ground game got going. As the Ravens travel to face a Cowboys team that just got mauled by the Saints’ running game, focusing on the run seems like a natural place to start for offensive coordinator Todd Monken as they build this week’s game plan. Baltimore actually lost three straight in the middle of the 2020 season and made it to the postseason, but it needed to win out over its five subsequent games to get there. We’re not quite in win-out world if they lose to Dallas next week, but that wouldn’t be far off.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 23.1%

Two things relevant to the 2024 Jaguars reared their heads in 1999. One was Trevor Lawrence, who was born that year. The other is the alt-rock staple “My Own Worst Enemy” by Lit, which accurately summates Jacksonville’s 0-2 start. With the Chargers looking competent under Jim Harbaugh, the team that vanquished Justin Herbert in his only postseason appearance has inherited the mantle of being the most frustrating team to watch in football.

That starts on offense in the most valuable real estate on the field. Red zone issues were a problem for the Jags last season, when they ranked 28th in expected points added (EPA) inside the 20. It hasn’t been much better this season. Despite ranking 11th in EPA per play outside the red zone, Lawrence & Co. rank 29th once they get inside the 20. It has been the biggest factor keeping them from winning a game.

Everyone saw what happened in Week 1, when Travis Etienne fumbled inside the 5-yard line and the Dolphins recovered. One play later, a Tyreek Hill touchdown turned the game around in a game Miami won 20-17. Week 2 was more subtle. The Jaguars made four trips into the red zone against the Browns and scored one lone touchdown. They kicked two field goals in goal-to-go situations, one of which came as a result of an illegal shift that wiped away a touchdown. They failed to score at all on a fourth possession, impressive given they had a second-and-5 from the Cleveland 14-yard line.

The passing offense just isn’t consistent. Jacksonville ranks 22nd in success rate with the pass through two games.

Etienne is off to a slow start, but perhaps that shouldn’t be a surprise. The 2021 first-round pick has been struggling for a while now.

It seemed telling the Jaguars looked palpably worse without being able to call upon Tank Bigsby, who was injured on a return on Sunday and missed most of the game. Third-stringer D’Ernest Johnson was the player who committed the illegal shift that took the Kirk touchdown off the board in the red zone. Jacksonville missed Evan Engram, who suffered an injury during warmups, but this offense left too many plays on the table and doesn’t have any sort of consistency.

Meanwhile, the defense has allowed too many big plays, including five gains of 30 yards or more through two weeks.

Ryan Nielsen’s defense helped the Browns along by committing personal fouls on back-to-back plays on one drive and a roughing the passer call on Devin Lloyd that gave the Browns a new set of downs inside the 5-yard line after a third-and-14 pass was short of the sticks. This sort of sloppy play seeped into Jacksonville’s week-to-week performances last season, and it hasn’t gone away in 2024.

What’s even more concerning is the schedule is about to get much tougher. The Jags are about to go on a two-game road trip to face the Bills and Texans. Things are easier after that, but they need to pull out at least one (if not both) of those games to keep their playoff hopes alive. They have the talent to win those games, but they have to play smarter and stop beating themselves.

4. Los Angeles Rams

Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 10.3%

Some problems are easier to understand than others. In an everything-goes-wrong season that harks back to their fateful 2022 campaign, the Rams are simply being waylaid by injuries on the offensive side of the ball. In Week 1, they lost star wideout Puka Nacua, starting guard Steve Avila and tackle Joe Noteboom, who was filling in for the suspended Alaric Jackson. All three players hit injured reserve and will miss the next month.

In Sunday’s 41-10 loss to the Cardinals, the Rams sadly added to that list with another ankle injury for veteran wideout Cooper Kupp, whose career hasn’t been the same since he suffered a high ankle sprain during the 2022 season.

What I found so confusing, though, is how coach Sean McVay handled the one healthy standout playmaker he appears to have left. Kyren Williams has missed time in each of his first two seasons with various injuries, and a foot injury cost him minicamp time this year. Given that L.A. didn’t decide to give Blake Corum a carry in Week 1, it certainly feels like it sees Williams as the lead running back.

Why, then, was Williams getting carries and checkdowns when the Rams were down 28 points in the third quarter Sunday?

The offense was supposed to carry the team while the defense adjusted to life without Aaron Donald. Instead, after failing to hold on to a late lead and then allowing a touchdown in overtime against the Lions, the defense melted down against Arizona, allowing touchdown drives of 60, 60 and 102 yards on the first three possessions. Marvin Harrison Jr. had four catches for 130 yards and a touchdown in the opening quarter.

The Week 1 version of the Rams that lost to the Lions is a lot more like the “real” Rams than the team that just got blown out. The problem is the offense seems to be shedding key players each week, and a banged-up offensive line is about to face Nick Bosa and the 49ers next Sunday. The 49ers are struggling with injuries in their own right given the absences of Christian McCaffrey, Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga, but the Rams are holding on for dear life. They had lost nine straight regular-season games against the 49ers before beating them in Week 18 a year ago, although that streak doesn’t include the narrow win over the Niners in the NFC Championship Game. If L.A. can’t start a winning streak of its own over its rivals next week, its season might be over.

5. Tennessee Titans

Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 10.8%

With a few breaks, the Titans might feel like they should be 2-0. They’ve led at halftime in each of their first two games. Their defense has allowed three touchdowns in two weeks and ranks 10th in EPA per play. Their new-look rushing attack, built around Tony Pollard and the mind of legendary new offensive line coach Bill Callahan, ranks 10th in the league in yards per rush attempt.

The only minor problems? Tennessee’s quarterback and special teams appear to be double agents sent to sabotage the franchise.

You could forgive an inexplicable mistake or two if Levis was otherwise thriving, but he hasn’t been good even outside of those two fiascoes. He’s 38-of-60 for 319 yards with two touchdowns, three picks and two lost fumbles. That’s 5.3 yards per attempt. His big play from Sunday, a 40-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Ridley, was an underthrown ball that was nearly intercepted. A few plays from Levis would have sealed things up in the second half against the Bears, and he wasn’t able to make them.

The Titans are asking Levis to make big-boy throws. His average pass travels 8.3 yards in the air, the fifth-highest rate in football. On throws traveling more than 20 yards in the air, though, he is 1-of-7 with that touchdown pass to Ridley and two picks. One of those interceptions was a deep over he tossed to a double-covered Treylon Burks on Sunday. While acknowledging the Titans will be better when DeAndre Hopkins is fully healthy and taking back his role in the starting lineup from Burks, there have to be better decisions from the second-year quarterback.

Special teams have also been a serious problem.

The one positive for Tennessee is it might feel good about its chances next week, as a defense that ranks fourth in EPA per play allowed against the run since the start of 2023 hosts a Packers team that was utterly committed to the run with Malik Willis in Week 2. The Titans limited the Jets to six first downs on 23 attempts, although Breece Hall had a 30-yard run and Braelon Allen scampered home for a 20-yard touchdown. They also could get a backup quarterback the following week against the Dolphins, at which point the Titans will get an early bye. If Levis continues to wreak havoc on his own team’s chances, Tennessee will have to seriously think about going to Mason Rudolph before it returns in Week 6.

6. Indianapolis Colts

Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 22.7%

On paper, the injury to Packers quarterback Jordan Love looked like a break for the Colts in Week 2. After losing a back-and-forth battle to the Texans in the season opener, they were going to travel to Green Bay. Malik Willis had barely been a passable quarterback during his time with the Titans, with the 2022 third-round pick posting a 48.7 passer rating across 67 career pass attempts. If Indianapolis could take advantage of a few Willis mistakes and get an early lead, it would be in position to get back on track with a key road victory.

Instead, the Colts were figuratively and literally run over. Employing an offense that an old-school high school coach would have loved, the Packers ran for 237 yards in the first half, the third-highest total racked up by any team in the first two quarters of the game since 2000. Matt LaFleur didn’t trust Willis as a passer and almost entirely limited him to checkdowns and screens, but the new Packers starter went 12-of-14 for 122 yards and a touchdown in a 16-10 victory.

The Colts were able to get the Packers behind schedule early, but it just didn’t matter

The injuries are adding up on defense for Indy. Laiatu Latu, the team’s first-round pick on the edge, left the game with a hip injury and didn’t return. The team was already relying more on Latu after Samson Ebukam, who led the team with 9.5 sacks a year ago, tore his Achilles in training camp. They lost their best young corner when JuJu Brents hit injured reserve with a knee injury suffered in the opener, while starting safety Julian Blackmon also missed Sunday’s loss.

With an average defense over most of the past half-decade, the Colts have usually gone about as far as their quarterbacks will take them. Sunday was an example of the growing pains they’ll have to deal with Anthony Richardson, who wasn’t able to uncork the devastating deep passes that drove the offense against the Texans in Week 1.

A year after they nearly made it to the postseason with Gardner Minshew under center for most of the campaign, the hope for the Colts was they could build off of that surprising success with a full season from their second-year quarterback. Richardson is going to have a wildly impressive highlight reel, and he should get better as the season goes along. I’m just a little concerned his inconsistency and the injuries on defense are going to keep Indy from looking good on a consistent basis. It needs to sweep its two-game homestand against the Bears and Steelers to get back on track, given that four of its following five games will be away from Indianapolis.

7. Denver Broncos

Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 4.3%

Sometimes the preseason hype is warranted. Dak Prescott turned heads all throughout training camp and into exhibition games during the 2016 preseason, but with Tony Romo entrenched as the starting quarterback, it didn’t seem to matter. When Romo went down with a fractured vertebrae and Prescott took over, he looked every bit as smooth in the real games as he did against the second- and third-stringers. He took over as the starter and never looked back.

After an impressive training camp and some gaudy numbers in the preseason, the hype train was rolling in Denver for rookie first-round pick Bo Nix. There were obvious comparisons to Sean Payton’s former star pupil Drew Brees, but onlookers were raving about Nix’s processing speed, accuracy and decision-making. The Broncos had found their guy, right?

It’s way too early to make any broader long-term judgments about Nix, but he’s an extremely limited quarterback right now.

With a road trip to play the thriving 2-0 Buccaneers next week, Denver needs to set its expectations appropriately. It has a top-10 defense by EPA per play through two weeks, and if it can protect the football after turning the ball over five times in its first two contests, that defense might carry it to a victory or two. The idea that Nix was going to accelerate the Broncos’ rebuild, however, seems like preseason bluster. He’s still very much a work in progress.

8. New York Giants

Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 4.3%

In the race to avoid landing in last place in the NFC East through two games, the Giants lost to the Commanders. What’s worse is even they would have to admit the blows were mostly self-inflicted. Careers turn on weird moments and seemingly minor decisions, and if this is Brian Daboll’s last season in New York, we might look back at the turning point as the Graham Gano affair from Week 2.

With Gano injuring his groin late in the week, there was speculation over the weekend the Giants might deactivate their starting kicker and elevate rookie Jude McAtamney to the active lineup. In the end, they decided Gano was healthy enough to play and elevated a pair of special teams coverage players to the lineup. Evan Neal, the 2022 top-10 pick who appears to have quietly lost his job at right tackle, was active without playing a snap for the second consecutive week.

Instead, a comedy of errors ensued. Gano injured his hamstring on the opening kickoff and wasn’t able to play the rest of the way. Punter Jamie Gillan missed the extra point on New York’s opening touchdown, which brought to an end to the kick attempts. Daboll went for two on each of their three touchdowns, with his offense going 0-for-3. While I believe going for two was the right call given the uncertainty about Gillan’s ability, not having a kicker on the active roster given Gano’s injury was simply short-sighted. It turned out about as poorly as possible.

The Giants were also forced to go for it on fourth downs in situations in which they might have attempted field goals. That can work out really well for teams, as it did for the Browns in their win over the Texans last season. Here, it was more of a mixed bag.

The hope after swapping out the blitz-happy defensive coordinator Don Martindale for Shane Bowen was the Giants could build their defense around a wildly talented front four and have them carry an uncertain secondary to solid coverage. While rookie safety Tyler Nubin has flashed early in his career, the rest of the secondary simply hasn’t been good enough. New York ranks 29th in EPA per play allowed on defense, with opposing passers completing a league-worst 79.2% of passes against it. The team signed former starter Adoree’ Jackson at the end of camp out of frustration with their options, but he allowed a long pass interference penalty in Week 1 and got only a handful of snaps Sunday.

Losing to the Commanders is going to be tough to move past. There aren’t any great teams ahead on the schedule, but the Giants will be in Cleveland next week, then home against a Cowboys team that beat them by a combined score of 89-17 on aggregate last season, then across the country to play the Seahawks. They won’t be favored in any of those contests. Starting 1-4 or 0-5 would signal a wasted season and raise real questions about how early they turn to backup quarterback Drew Lock, if only to avoid triggering Jones’ guarantees for 2025.

9. Carolina Panthers

Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 0.3%

What can you say? The Panthers have been outscored by 60 points through two games, which has been topped only four times during the 21st century. Those four teams — the 2019 Dolphins, 2011 Chiefs, 2008 Rams and 2001 Washington franchise — didn’t actually turn out to be quite as bad as things seemed through two games. They went a combined 22-34 the rest of the way, which isn’t great, but that’s the equivalent of a six- to seven-win football team in the 17-game era. Panthers fans might be wondering if their team will even score six touchdowns over the rest of the season. Things feel very bleak in Carolina.

I’m not sure there were expectations the Panthers would compete this season, but everything they did this offseason was built around making quarterback Bryce Young’s life easier by building the infrastructure around the 2023 first overall pick. They hired Dave Canales away from Tampa Bay, traded for wideout Diontae Johnson from the Steelers, spent big to add guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis in free agency and used second-round picks on wide receiver Xavier Legette and running back Jonathon Brooks, the latter of whom has started the season on the PUP list.

The 2023 offense generated minus-0.13 EPA per play, which ranked 30th in the league. Through two weeks, the new-look offense has been significantly worse, averaging -0.37 EPA per play. That’s the second-worst mark for any offense through two games since 2007, ahead of only those 2019 Dolphins. Carolina has one touchdown through two games and a total of seven first downs across 12 first-half drives.

The simplest thing a team can do as an offense to improve is to find something, even one thing, it does well. Maybe it runs the ball effectively on the interior. It has a solid short passing game. It can threaten teams with play-action. It protects the football. Maybe it has a guy who can win deep or a quarterback who can scare teams with his legs. If it can do one thing well, that’s something to build off.

The Panthers don’t do anything well.

Young looks bereft of confidence and unable to create out of structure, the opposite of the quarterback we saw at his college peak.

A pass rush that lacks Brian Burns and lost star defensive tackle Derrick Brown for the season in the opener (knee) ranks last in pressure rate (8.5%). Cornerback Jaycee Horn has been a Pro Bowl-caliber player in between injuries as a pro, but he was beat on a fade by Quentin Johnston for a touchdown Sunday, his second score allowed in two weeks. He did come up with an interception on a bad decision by a scrambling Justin Herbert, but if he’s not excelling, Carolina doesn’t have much hope given the talent elsewhere on this roster.

The Panthers might have hoped to benefit from a weak division in what even they must have expected to be a transitional year under Canales, but the Buccaneers and Saints have both started 2-0, burying Carolina further in the NFC South basement. The good news, I suppose, is the Panthers are at least in position to benefit from another disastrous season, given they hold their first-round pick after sending last year’s to the Bears in the Young deal.

BROADCAST NEWS

It looked like Tom Brady’s first homecoming as an announcer would come in Week 5 when the Dolphins visit the Patriots.

But with the Rams and Bears both winless, it now appears he will be in Tampa Bay when the now undefeated Buccaneers host Philadelphia in Week 4.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE AND UPDATED SB ODDS

From Eagles (easy) to Rams (hard) per Nerding on NFL:

@NerdingonNFL

Strength of Schedule for the rest of the season based on today’s power rankings from ESPN:

1 = easiest remaining schedule

32 = most difficult

1) Eagles

2) Bengals

3) Colts

4) Commanders

5) Saints

6) Vikings

7) Chargers

8) Steelers

9) Dolphins

10) Buccaneers

11) Raiders

12) Texans

13) Bears

14) Jaguars

15) Falcons

16) Panthers

17) Jets

18) Cowboys

19) Giants

20) Titans

21) Lions

22) Bills

23) Browns

24) Ravens

25) Chiefs

26) Patriots

27) Seahawks

28) Broncos

29) Cardinals

30) Packers

31) 49ers

32) Rams

So this behooves the upstart candidacies of the Saints, Vikings and Commanders.

And look at the four NFC West teams all in the toughest six.

Khari Demos of The Athletic looks at how Super Bowl odds have changed after two weeks:

After a walk-off win against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2, the two-time reigning Super Bowl champions sit pretty after winning their first two games, and they remain at the top of the odds to win the Super Bowl at +450. The Chiefs are followed by the San Francisco 49ers (+600) and then the 2-0 Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans (both +1100).

Now that the season is fully in swing, with the field beginning to separate a tiny bit in the win-loss column, we’re revisiting Super Bowl odds for this season. It’s no surprise the Chiefs still hold sway at the top, along with the usual suspects, but we’ll get into a few dark horse contenders that have risen over the first two weeks of NFL action.

Super Bowl LIX Winner

Kansas City Chiefs               +450

San Francisco 49ers             +600

Buffalo Bills                           +1100

Houston Texans                    +1100

Detroit Lions                          +1200

Philadelphia Eagles               +1200

Baltimore Ravens                  +1400

New York Jets                       +1800

Dallas Cowboys                     +2000

Cincinnati Bengals                 +2000

Green Bay Packers                +2500

New Orleans Saints                +3000

Atlanta Falcons                       +3500

Miami Dolphins                        +4000

Los Angeles Chargers             +4000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers          +4000

Seattle Seahawks                    +4000

Pittsburgh Steelers                   +4000

Minnesota Vikings                    +5000

Chicago Bears                          +5000

Cleveland Browns                     +5000

Los Angeles Rams                    +6600

Arizona Cardinals                      +6600

Jacksonville Jaguars                  +8000

All eyes should still remain on Patrick Mahomes and Chiefs Kingdom. They have come out of the gate with wins over two contenders from the AFC North in the Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. It may not always be pretty for Andy Reid and Co., but KC has proven it can win in many ways — even when it turns the ball over three times and Mahomes posts 151 passing yards and two interceptions. The Chiefs will have to move forward without one of their lead horses, as running back Isiah Pacheco heads to the injured reserve after fracturing his fibula against the Bengals.

After starting the season with +1600 odds, Josh Allen and the Bills look to be in the mix after a dominant Week 2 win in Miami. Sean McDermott looks to keep the wagons circling as Buffalo pursues its fifth consecutive AFC East title. The Bills can get to 3-0 this week against the 0-2 Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football. That outcome could prove pivotal, especially with a slate against the Ravens, Texans and New York Jets over the next three weeks.

The Texans were a trendy pick to win the Super Bowl and have lived up to the hype through two weeks. C.J. Stroud continues to ascend as one of the elite young signal callers in the game, and he’s got a strong foundation supporting him. From the talented skill group at his disposal to a tenacious defense under DeMeco Ryans’ guidance, the former Ohio State quarterback is set up to succeed. One other piece of note: Houston is atop the AFC South at 2-0, while the other teams in the division — Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans — are all 0-2.

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Let’s focus on a couple of dark-horse Super Bowl contenders. After signing a $100-million contract extension this offseason, Baker Mayfield has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sitting at 2-0. I like their odds (+4000) as a low-stakes flier for Super Bowl LIX, especially after knocking off the Detroit Lions in Week 2, avenging their divisional-round playoff loss from a season ago.

The Bucs need their kudos, and not only for getting a win against one of the NFC’s favorites, but also for opening up with back-to-back conference wins as the NFC appears to be as wide open as ever. And let’s not forget — this team is still laden with players who helped Tom Brady win his seventh ring back in 2021.

A team Tampa Bay may be tested by in the NFC South, though? Look no further than the New Orleans Saints, who now sit at +3000 odds to win the Super Bowl, shortened from +8000 before the season started. The Saints have built a 91-29 margin through two weeks.

Here are a couple wild stats for you. Derek Carr has led the Saints to scoring drives on his first 15 possessions of the season. Those 91 points are also tied for the fourth-most for a team through two games in league history.

One AFC dark horse of note is the Los Angeles Chargers (+4000). The Jim Harbaugh era has started against two lower-tier teams — I’m looking at you Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers — but we cannot blame the Chargers for beating the team in front of them. Justin Herbert hasn’t been asked to do too much yet (137 passing yards per game) but he has to appreciate the support he’s getting with a rushing attack that’s piling up 197.5 yards per game and a defense that’s allowing 6.5 points per game.

We know the type of coach Harbaugh is with his Super Bowl XLVII appearance with the 49ers and his national championship with Michigan last year. Although he wasn’t able to do so as a player, maybe the former Chargers QB can help the franchise land its first Super Bowl win and their first title since the AFL days in 1963.

But we also cannot count out three 1-1 teams at the top of the NFC’s highest odds with San Francisco, Detroit and the Philadelphia Eagles, who are currently tied with the Lions with the NFL’s fifth-best Super Bowl odds (+1200). All three have played in the NFC Championship over the past two seasons and have many veterans from those teams still on their rosters.

These 1-1 squads still have a lot to look forward to this season. But we will see how helpful — or unimpactful — a 2-0 start will be en route to a Super Bowl.