| Hannah Vanbiber of The Athletic breaks down the current 2025 MVP odds: Lamar Jackson Jr. +500Josh Allen +600Joe Burrow +600 Patrick Mahomes +650Jayden Daniels +900 Jordan Love +1800Jalen Hurts +1800Justin Herbert +2000C.J. Stroud +2500Brock Purdy +3000Baker Mayfield +3000Matthew Stafford +3500Bo Nix +3500Jared Goff +4000Dak Prescott +4000Caleb Williams +4000 Last year, Mahomes opened as the betting favorite to win MVP, with the eventual winner Allen in second place and Burrow in third. Jackson started last season barely in the top 10 on betting boards. Though that may have been more due to the fact that he was already a two-time winner, and oddsmakers suspected the voters might want to give someone else some shine? Jackson is starting the season off with some injury questions, though coach John Harbaugh says he is “going to be good.” He finished last year’s regular season with 4,172 yards passing and 915 rushing, 41 touchdowns and just four interceptions and a team record of 12-5. Of course, when it comes to MVP, those team records really matter. The last 37 MVPs have come from teams with good odds to win the Super Bowl. The leading Super Bowl favorites this year are the Ravens (+700), Bills (+700), Eagles (+700), Chiefs (+800) and Lions (+1000). That makes Joe Burrow, second in the MVP odds, a bit of a daring choice, with the Bengals at +2000 odds to win the Super Bowl (they went 9-8 last year and missed the playoffs). But could it finally be his year? His lack of an MVP award is no fault of his own (last year he threw for 4,918 yards, 43 touchdowns and just nine interceptions) and more a result of a shoddy defense. The Bengals have a revamped defense this year under Al Golden, so they’re a team to watch early on. How about non-quarterbacks? Since the inception of the award in 1957, 48 of the winners have been quarterbacks. Adrian Peterson was the last non-QB to snag it in 2012 with a 2,097-yard rushing year with the Minnesota Vikings. In the last several seasons, non-QBs have finished in the top 10 of voting often enough (names like Ja’Marr Chase, Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown), but never got enough votes to clinch it. If you need any proof of how tough it is to win the voting if you’re not the signal-caller, just look at Saquon Barkley last year, who had a headline-dazzling, 2,005-yard regular season on the way to a Super Bowl win. The first non-quarterback on this year’s odds list is, predictably, Barkley. But you’ll have to scroll past 18 quarterbacks to get to his name at +5000 odds, which is 50-to-1 or an implied chance of less than 2 percent. |
| NFC NORTH |
| GREEN BAYSo, some of us may have thought that EDGE MICAH PARSONS’ back injury was a product of his “hold in” – quickly to vanish in a colder climate. But what if he wasn’t – and the Cowboys sent damaged goods to Green Bay? Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: Micah Parsons passed his physical with the Packers after last week’s trade with the Cowboys, but he reportedly hasn’t put the back issue that he was dealing with in Dallas in the rearview mirror just yet. According to multiple reports, Parsons has a facet joint sprain. The sprain is located in his L4/L5 vertebrae. Parsons took part in Monday’s practice despite the sprain, which would seem to be a good sign of his chances of playing against the Lions on Sunday. Those reports indicate that he may receive an epidural injection in order to make his Packers debut. More information about the state of Parsons’s back and the chances that he’ll be compromised in any way on the field could come to light in the next few days. As long as he continues practicing, though, it seems like he’ll be on the field one way or another in Week 1. And is this Cowboys’ spin or the gospel truth about Parsons – from Albert Breer of SI.com: Which, again, comes back to who the 26-year-old Parsons is. He’s incredibly intelligent and savvy, and understands the era he’s living in. So you’ll have trouble finding anyone that’s been around him who thinks any of what we saw the past two months, as the temperature got turned up on the negotiation, was accidental. Simply put, Parsons is too smart for that. Of course, that Dallas ended up willing to move him says a lot about where the Cowboys were and, in particular, where owner Jerry Jones was, too. Let’s dive into all of that now … • As we said, the pacing of this negotiation wasn’t wholly dissimilar from what we all witnessed with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb last year, or even Zack Martin the year before that. Once the team arrived in California for camp in 2023 and ’24, their negotiations were put on the back burner, the same way Parsons’s were this summer. Basically sending the message that if a deal isn’t done that works for the team early, the player has to wait. That said, there is a difference between this negotiation and the previous three. Martin, Lamb and Prescott are/were very popular in the locker room. That’s not the case with Parsons, who has rankled teammates in different ways, seen by some as egotistical and self-centered. His podcast has created issues, too, that go all the way up to quarterback Dak Prescott. • Some of it spilled into Parsons’s play. Previous defensive staffs had trouble with him at times because he would play out of structure in an effort to make big plays, which led to the run-defense issues Jerry and Stephen Jones kept referencing at their press conference. That does happen with great pass rushers—it was just too common with Parsons and, again, he was too smart a football player for these to be a string of honest mistakes. Was it worth it for the game-changing plays he made? Yes, it was. Again, this sort of problem with a pass rusher wasn’t the first one a coaching staff had to confront. Also, Dallas was clearly willing to do that with its initial offer to Parsons in April. But when things broke down in that phase of the negotiation, bigger-picture questions were asked. • The Cowboys’ offer, made by Jones to Parsons himself in April, as the owner detailed at his press conference, topped $40 million per year, but ended up being too long for the Parsons’s camp’s liking. Dallas has been down this road before with guys, trying to get them to do five- and six-year extensions to give the team a heavy measure of control through changing conditions in the market. Parsons walking away from the offer changed the dynamic. Dallas went from a sign-your-star-player approach to contemplating bigger-picture questions on how a team should be assembled, with Prescott and Lamb already on massive deals, after so much frustration over how recent seasons ended. Which got things to the point where this became as much about how Dallas was doing business as Parsons himself. The Cowboys didn’t come to a flashpoint where they pivoted, but they did start to wrap their heads around the idea of letting Parsons go, getting more affordable talent on the roster through a raft of high draft picks, and being able to re-sign young players such as Tyler Smith, Daron Bland and Sam Williams (and maybe even George Pickens). Also, in looking back at recent Super Bowl champions, only one was built around a great edge rusher—and the 2015 Broncos won it all while Von Miller was still on his rookie contract. • Dallas still wanted to keep Parsons, but when the trade request came in, teams reached out to express interest and Green Bay was among them. The Cowboys rebuffed overtures, wanting to see how the summer played out first. During camp in California, Parsons was very attentive with and receptive to his new defensive coaches—good in walkthroughs, good in the meeting room and staying up on his workout regimen. There was then a marked difference in how he carried himself at practice, when cameras were on, and when ownership was around, which gave everyone the feeling that he was very much trying to send a message to the bosses. Only he knows his intent. However, it seemed clear to others that he was trying to irk management in a way that they couldn’t quite point the finger at him. • Trust was another factor. Jerry Jones has proved over the years to be willing to reward his best players at the highest level, and has built life-long relationships with scores of the stars who’ve made their way through North Texas over his 36 seasons leading the franchise. But one thing that was brought up to me over the past few days is that Jones needs to trust a player to pay him like that. And somewhere along the line, Parsons lost Jones’s trust. Last night, Parsons told NFL Network’s Jane Slater that he and agent David Mulugheta went back to Jones, as trade interest ramped up again, to try to restart talks on a long-term extension. The Cowboys’ response, per Parsons, was to “play on the fifth-year option or leave.” Jones himself confirmed Parsons’s claim at his presser—“That is correct,” he said emphatically—which shows to which point the relationship, and trust, had frayed. |
| NFC EAST |
| DALLASDan Pompei of The Athletic with some thoughts on Jerry Jones – as well as George Halas and Al Davis. Edited version below: If Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones could win Super Bowls as easily as he makes himself the center of conversation, he’d have more rings than fingers and toes. Jones is the topic du jour again these days after the stunning trade of outside linebacker Micah Parsons, arguably the best defensive player in football. Jones apparently is counting on this trade having an outcome similar to the Herschel Walker trade of 1989 that helped build a dynasty. For that to happen, the Cowboys would have to draft like coach Jimmy Johnson did in the early 1990s. The move was curious because the Cowboys had considered themselves Super Bowl contenders. They received defensive tackle Kenny Clark and two first-round picks in return for Parsons, but there is no way to argue they are better today than last week. And the message the trade sent to fans and players is they should not expect the 29-year championship drought to end anytime soon. It isn’t the kind of deal expected from an 82-year-old owner/general manager. Parsons isn’t the only Cowboys star whose negotiations with Jones were thorny. “Sometimes Jerry will negotiate right down to the final dime with somebody,” Jones’ close friend Mike McCoy said in “King of the Cowboys: The Life and Times of Jerry Jones.” “It’s the point of proving that he can win. Then he’ll turn right around when the bargaining is over and he’ll give something back that you’ve been negotiating over for days. Sometimes it’s just like a game to him.” In the Netflix docuseries “America’s Team: The Gambler and His Cowboys,” Jones says, “We do it our way, baby.” And the Cowboys’ way is different than most. However, some of it is reminiscent of the way Bears founder George Halas and Raiders owner Al Davis conducted their business. Halas let future Hall of Famers Bronko Nagurski, George Blanda and Mike Ditka walk away rather than pay them. Nagurski, in fact, became a pro wrestler in 1938 over a $500 difference in negotiations.– – –Davis, unlike Halas and Jones, didn’t have many notable contract disputes with players. But his parsimoniousness came out in the way he paid — or didn’t pay — coaches. By 2002, Jon Gruden — “Chucky” as he was known to Raiders fans — was the brightest coaching star in the NFL. In the previous four years as coach of the Raiders, his record was 40-28. If not for a playoff loss to the Patriots, partly due to the famous “Tuck Rule” play, the Raiders would have been in the AFC Championship Game for the second straight season. Gruden’s success and popularity gave him negotiating leverage for a healthy raise. Instead of paying him, Davis traded him to the Buccaneers, who beat the Raiders in the Super Bowl the following season. Jones, Davis and Halas took many arrows late in their tenures. They were easy targets. Halas coached until he was 73. Jones’ Cowboys are 5-13 in the postseason since their last Super Bowl, with only one of the victories coming in the last six years. In the last eight years of Davis’ life, his Raiders were 54 games below .500. Jones’ legacy is fascinating. Only one active owner — Robert Kraft of the Patriots — has more Super Bowl victories, and Jones has had a massive footprint on 31 teams besides his own. But perceptions of him have been colored by the Cowboys’ inability to get back to the level they were in the ’90s. The Parsons trade undoubtedly will color those perceptions further, one way or another. The problem with being an owner/GM is that the owner has one less person to blame for failures. The heat serves Jones well. It gives him fuel. Davis was thin-skinned and barked back at anyone who took issue with his decisions. When he was an old man using a walker, he tried to physically intimidate a media critic. Success shielded Halas from criticism for much of his long career, but the wolves started howling when he couldn’t get his team over the hump in the 1950s. That’s when he showed his cantankerous side. Jones just got rid of one of the league’s best players because of the owner’s lack of urgency and miscalculations. Attention was important to all three. Jones, unabashedly, is a promoter. “The Cowboys are a soap opera 365 days a year,” he said in “America’s Team.” “When it gets slow, I stir it up.” In Halas’ case, he used attention to grow the league during eras when the NFL played second fiddle to Major League Baseball and college football. Halas typed press releases and personally delivered them to newsrooms. Being the face of his franchise was vital for Davis. When he had to pass a billboard with head coach Gruden on it on his way to work every day, he couldn’t take it. The scenario was similar with running back Marcus Allen, who had become arguably the best running back in the NFL by the late 1980s and also the most popular Raider. At Davis’ behest, Allen was moved to fullback and forced to take a back seat to Bo Jackson, Roger Craig and Eric Dickerson. Jones and Davis differed in how they dealt with attention. Davis was a sphinx, reveling in the mystery of silence. Jones is transparent. He’ll answer all questions and is more available than any owner of anything in the history of everything. If his Cowboys could control the ball the way their owner controls the news cycle, they’d lead the league in time of possession every year. For Halas, the motivation was love of the game. With Jones, there was also love of the fame. Davis was driven by love of the Raiders, his creation. Jones has been criticized more than Halas or Davis for several reasons. Everyone is more criticized these days, given the growth of the game and the population of trolls. By talking so much, Jones exposes himself. And he was never afforded the credibility that Halas and Davis were because they were coaches. Jones was an offensive lineman and captain for an Arkansas team that won the UPI national championship in 1964. He accumulated his wealth as a wildcatter and did his only coaching from his couch. But he has admitted to being a frustrated coach. He once told Sports Illustrated’s Frank DeFord that he “could have coached the s— out of this (Cowboys) team.” Jones has often made his influence felt on the field by having a hand in the hiring of assistant coaches. When Barry Switzer took over for Johnson in 1994, he had to retain the assistants from Johnson’s staff. Switzer was allowed to hire Mike Zimmer to coach the nickel defense. Partly because Zimmer had the respect of Jones, he was retained by head coaches Chan Gailey, Dave Campo and Bill Parcells and then brought back years later under Mike McCarthy. When Halas was coaching, he hired stellar assistants. Davis famously hired many Raiders assistant coaches after he stopped formally coaching in 1966 to become the commissioner of the AFL. Some Raiders assistants, such as Fred Biletnikoff, Willie Brown and Art Shell, were former Raiders players. When Davis named Mike Shanahan head coach in 1988, Davis allowed him to bring in only three assistants: Alex Gibbs, Nick Nicolau and Pete Rodriguez. The rest were Davis hires. Shanahan fired two of Davis’ old-guard assistant coaches only to have Davis reinstate them. Jones can be headstrong, but the truth is, he’s open-minded with his lieutenants. Johnson ran the fruitful drafts that laid the foundation for the Cowboys’ dynasty of the ’90s. When Parcells was the head coach of the Cowboys, he pushed for the Cowboys to draft tight end Jason Witten and pass rusher DeMarcus Ware. Jones allowed his son Stephen Jones, his personnel director, to talk him into drafting Zack Martin instead of Johnny Manziel in 2014. Parcells said it was a misconception that Jones had to call all the shots. “Jerry is a good businessman and a good listener,” he told Dallascowboys.com after he left the team. “What you have to do is make sense to him. … If he thinks you’re making sense, he’ll alter his opinion.” Neither Jones, Davis, nor Halas was concerned about living in harmony, however. Jones might have won more if he could have co-existed with Johnson. Davis might have won more if he could have co-existed with Gruden. Halas might have won more if he could have co-existed with his defensive coordinator, George Allen, who left because of a contract fight. Davis was a mentor to Jones. During Jones’ first year as owner of the Cowboys, Davis often called Jones during the team’s struggles to offer encouragement. Over the years, Davis and Jones spoke on the phone two or three times a month, with many of their calls lasting an hour or more. Jones told the Dallas Morning News that before the Cowboys of the ’90s started winning, he and Johnson considered trading wide receiver Michael Irvin and replacing him with Kelvin Martin. Davis told Jones he would be happy to trade for Irvin, but Jones needed to keep him. An argument could be made that Jones would have benefited from Davis last week. For Jones, it was a compliment to be compared to Davis. Both were drawn to splashy moves, and neither could resist a roll of the dice.– – –Davis was known for taking chances on players with histories that deterred other teams. Among those he acquired despite warning flags were Lyle Alzado, John Matuszak, Todd Marinovich and JaMarcus Russell. Jones, meanwhile, has acknowledged being an ardent believer in what he considers player rehabilitation, and he’s shown it in his transactions, acquiring Charles Haley, Pacman Jones, Terrell Owens, Greg Hardy and others who gave most teams pause. In 1995, Davis was intent on drafting linebacker Derrick Brooks after selecting running back Napoleon Kaufman with the 18th pick. He thought Jones would trade him the 28th pick, according to the book, “Al Davis: Behind The Raiders Shield.” Instead, Jones took a better offer from the Bucs, who selected Brooks. “That one really surprised me because Al had an affinity for Jones,” former Raiders scout Bruce Kebric said. “One time, I was in Al’s office and Jones called. I remember Al saying to Jones. ‘There are not many people that I call a friend … but you’re one.” Jones had such respect for Davis that when he countersued the NFL in 1990 for the freedom to cut independent marketing deals, Davis was the only team owner who was omitted from the lawsuit. Jones and Halas probably did more to expand the NFL’s reach than anyone, except for former commissioner Pete Rozelle and current commissioner Roger Goodell. A plaque in Halas Hall, written by former team official Bill McGrane, reads: “By the sheer weight of enormous will, he (Halas) demanded that America pay attention to professional football.” As AFL commissioner, Davis made AFL teams competitive with their NFL big brothers, which helped convince NFL owners that a merger was the wisest choice. And an expanded NFL has been a more powerful NFL. Between Halas, Jones and Davis, the teams they touched won 15 championships. They also have three busts in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, which underscores the most prominent similarity between them — they were visionaries. In light of the Parsons trade, some are pointing out that vision often deteriorates with age. |
| PHILADELPHIAThe Eagles new OC Kevin Patullo hints he’s not just running back Kellen Moore’s scheme. Once again, the Eagles have a new offensive coordinator in 2025. Since Shane Steichen left the organization after the 2022 season to become the Colts head coach, Philadelphia has had Brian Johnson, Kellen Moore, and now Kevin Patullo in the role. Unlike Moore, who helped the team win Super Bowl LIX before becoming the Saints head coach, Patullo has been with the organization since the start of head coach Nick Sirianni’s tenure in 2021. He was the club’s pass game coordinator for the last four seasons before being promoted to OC in February. Patullo will make his play-calling debut on Thursday night when the Eagles open the season against the Cowboys. “I’m excited. I mean, it’s fun,” Patullo said in his Monday press conference. “It’s a huge opportunity obviously, but it goes back to even in Year 1 with Nick [Sirianni] just working through all the situations and things that we’ve done together. I’ve been a part of so much of it, it doesn’t feel too much different, but it is exciting, and I think the guys feel good energy and they’re excited, too.” One of the key relationships for Patullo is, of course, with quarterback Jalen Hurts. Patullo noted that he and Hurts have a good working dynamic, as both want to push each other to improve. “He and I spend a lot of time together, and we have even prior to, just getting a feel for him and what certain things we like and what we want to do and when we want to do it,” Patullo said. “It is important everywhere I’ve ever been, you want to have a good relationship with the quarterback just so you can talk outside and off the field about things, so you have a sense of what they’re thinking and what they’re doing. So, when you call certain things situationally or just a random first intent, you’ve got a good feel for what may happen.” After Philadelphia finished No. 7 in points and No. 8 in total yards last year, how much different will the offense look with Patullo calling the plays? “It’s hard to say just one game, but I think there’ll be some new things,” Patullo said. “Whether there will be a ton of them or not, it just depends on the situation, how the game flow goes, and how they come up throughout the game. “So, I think there’ll be a few things here or there, and then we’ll see throughout the season how much it continues in that direction.” The DB recently went to his roots in southern Italy, so we have to note – what do Nick Sirianni, Kevin Patullo and Vic Fangio have in common? Also Vince Lombardi. Connor Orr of SI.com explored this back in February: The Philadelphia Eagles are in this year’s Super Bowl because of a superior running game, along with one of the most improved defenses in the NFL since last year. Anecdotally, throughout the playoffs, they have simply appeared bigger, faster and stronger than most of their opponents. But, according to some industry experts—like my mother-in-law—the Eagles are also dominating for one important reason: They are more Italian than any other team in the NFL. No offense to Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants, who have managed to corner the market on the Italian NFL subculture, but recent (sauce-covered) breadcrumbs supporting the theory have been unignorable. • On a January episode of Chris Long’s Green Light podcast, former Eagles defensive tackle Beau Allen relayed a story about how he was waiting to see Jason Kelce in the staff locker room and was pacified by a readily available cannoli. • Vic Fangio, already famously quoted for refusing to provide his significant other with his family meatball recipe, when asked recently about cornerback Darius Slay, compared him to a “fine dago red wine.” While dago is considered an offensive slur toward Italian people, it is also commonly recognized as a type of fruity red wine that is coveted by older generations of Italians. After speaking to more than a dozen coaches, players and community members, though, there is far more to the story. According to NFL data shared with Sports Illustrated, no team has requested more Italian flags for the league’s cultural heritage initiative than the Eagles (and the Eagles are tied for the most, alongside the New England Patriots, in total flag patches of any country). Three of Philadelphia’s coaches—head coach Nick Sirianni; pass-game coordinator Kevin Patullo; and Dom DiSandro, the team’s chief of security, special advisor to the general manager and head of gameday coaching operations—wear the Italian flag on their visors or pullovers. That list, however, does not include Fangio, the team’s defensive coordinator, whose family arrived from Italy back in 1919 from Castiglione, a coastal town on the peninsula’s northwest side (Fangio also replaced Matt Patricia, another proud Italian from the Eagles’ 2023 staff, who sported the country’s flag as an assistant with the Patriots). Joe Pannunzio, the team’s assistant special teams coordinator, and others formulate the basis of a staff that redefines the word famiglia at the NFL level. For those outside the building, the staff serves as a cultural bridge to an area that contains the densest population of Italians outside of the country itself. For those inside the building, their shared culture provides a kind of driving ethos, a deeper bond during the hardest and most isolating moments of the season. And, as one former coach put it, plenty of occasions where the Italian members of the staff have to explain others: “We’re not yelling at each other, we’re just talking.” – – – “I mean, everyone at this point thinks they’re Italian on our staff,” Patullo says. “It’s fun.” On Sunday, Nick LaGuardia plans to leave his home and enter a state of near isolation on the second floor of the Sons of Italy building in Hammonton, N.J. The upper tier, which contains a sofa and a television, is lovingly nicknamed by regulars as “The 700 level,” a reference to another Philadelphia icon, old Veterans Stadium. Hammonton is still home to the densest population of Italians outside of Italy, and LaGuardia is the past president of the fraternal Italian organization. When his beloved team hired an Italian head coach and an Italian defensive coordinator, and had DiSandro, another proud Italian, as a promoted face of the organization, “We absolutely notice it,” LaGuardia says. “We’re proud of our heritage, we’re proud of our traditions and when one of us makes good on something, we all celebrate it.” LaGuardia noted some of the stories that have been relayed about Sirianni over the years. How he’ll handwrite notes to players, how he surrounds himself with his own family and engrains them into the team, how he’s always seen wrapping some player into a near-aggressive embrace. To him, that’s the real and tangible part of the culture seeping through. This visceral love; an Italian’s unique ability to make a stranger feel as if they’re a part of something. “They play for each other,” LaGuardia says. “There’s a lot of stars, but they play together. It starts from Nick.” Last year, both Sirianni and DiSandro were awarded the National Italian American Foundation Colangelo Sports Excellence Award. Salvatore Patti, the mid-Atlantic vice president of the organization, said that the honor is given out to those who have a tangible effect in the community, but also people who wear their heritage on their sleeve. In this case, literally. “It’s just great to see people who are embracing our culture,” Patti says. “You look at sports, you look at all these different teams and you just don’t always have it. We have it in Philadelphia.” Sirianni is the most successful Italian-American head coach since Vince Lombardi. The 56 years from Lombardi’s final game to Sirianni’s second Super Bowl feels like a small eternity, but not for those molded by the stories of mothers and fathers who came before them. Hammonton and the Philadelphia region were a beacon for Italian immigrants who came to work in the shoe factories and suit manufacturers. Sirianni is just a few generations removed from Calabria and Sicily, and from a family clothing store in Kane, Penn. Fangio, from his father’s tailoring shop in Scranton. DiSandro, who grew up with Italian as his first language and called his parents “the epitome of the American dream.” In that way, the patch means something more. More than the music, more than the food, more than the culture. It’s a realization of some long-ago dream; some unfathomable grasp at progress. Frank Mattei, an NIAF board member at the event honoring Sirianni and DiSandro last year called it a “light.” “You’re not just being honored tonight for what you have accomplished in sports,” he told both of them. “But really, how you’ve achieved your success.” |
| THIS AND THAT |
| ESPN’S FPIHere are the starting rankings of ESPN’s FPI (commentary abridged, read the full thing here: ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) ranked every team from 1 to 32 based on how it projects the season to play out. The Baltimore Ravens start us off at No. 1: 1. Baltimore RavensChances to make the playoffs: 78.6%Chances to win division: 52.6%Projected wins: 10.4Strength of schedule: Ninth hardest2024 record: 12-5 Biggest strength: Lamar Jackson. The two-time NFL Most Valuable Player is the most explosive playmaker in the league. Last season, he was as dangerous with his arm as his legs, leading the NFL in yards per pass attempt (8.8) and yards per carry (6.6). With Jackson as its starting quarterback, Baltimore has a 70-24 record (.745) and has its sights set on a Super Bowl title. When Jackson has been sidelined over the past six seasons, the Ravens have gone 4-9 (.308). — Jamison Hensley Biggest concern: Tyler Loop. This has the makings of the most complete team in Jackson’s eight-year run. The biggest change is going from Justin Tucker, the most accurate kicker in NFL history, to Loop, a rookie sixth-round pick. According to Pro Football Reference’s database, of the 128 place-kickers in NFL history who have attempted 20 or more kicks as a rookie, 19 have hit or exceeded an 85% conversion rate. — Hensley 2. Philadelphia EaglesChances to make the playoffs: 76.1%Chances to win division: 56.0%Projected wins: 10.3Strength of schedule: Fourth hardest2024 record: 14-3 Biggest strength: Exceptional run game. Offensive Player of the Year Saquon Barkley became the all-time leading rusher for a single season (including playoffs) in 2024 while powering the Eagles to their second Super Bowl title. He operates behind one of the best offensive lines in football, which is returning four of five starters (right guard Mekhi Becton signed with the Chargers this offseason and has been replaced by Tyler Steen). Couple that ground attack with receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts, and you have an offense with a very high ceiling. — Tim McManus Biggest concern: Replacements in the secondary. The Eagles parted with safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and cornerback Darius Slay this offseason and were unable to clearly identify their replacements this summer. Veteran Adoree’ Jackson seems to have gained an edge on Kelee Ringo but certainly didn’t run away with the job. Perhaps Jakorian Bennett, recently acquired from the Raiders, or rookie Mac McWilliams will claim the spot opposite Quinyon Mitchell at some point. Rookie safety Andrew Mukuba flashed brightly in his preseason debut against the Browns but has also been hampered by injuries, opening the door for third-year player Sydney Brown to try to secure the job, at least temporarily. — McManus 3. Kansas City ChiefsChances to make the playoffs: 74.8%Chances to win division: 46.8%Projected wins: 10.3Strength of schedule: 11th hardest (tie)2024 record: 15-2 QB stat to know: If Mahomes reaches the AFC Championship Game for an eighth consecutive season, he would match Tom Brady (2011-18) for the longest streak of conference championship starts since the 1970 merger. — ESPN Research How to win your fantasy league: RB Isiah Pacheco. A Week 2 fibula fracture derailed Pacheco’s 2024 season, and the injury impacted his numbers when he returned in Weeks 13-18 (5.0 PPG). But if we go back to 2023, Pacheco averaged 15.3 fantasy PPG, scoring nine touchdowns and catching 44 passes. So, bet on a healthy Pacheco — and his urgent running style — to fill that RB2/flex slot in the lineup. — Bowen Bold prediction for 2025: The Chiefs will have at least 12 plays that go for 40-plus yards in the regular season. Doesn’t sound so bold, does it? But last season, Kansas City recorded four such plays. I’m betting the Chiefs will make a concerted effort to bring the explosive plays back in 2025, particularly via vertical shots to WR Xavier Worthy. — Walder 4. Detroit LionsChances to make the playoffs: 65.6%Chances to win division: 38.4%Projected wins: 9.7Strength of schedule: Second hardest (tie)2024 record: 15-2 Biggest strength: Ground attack. Running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery — aka “Sonic & Knuckles” — could be featured backs for nearly any team in the NFL but have no problems splitting carries in Detroit. New running backs coach Tashard Choice, who coached Gibbs at Georgia Tech, is looking to bring the best out of them. Gibbs and Montgomery have each recorded at least 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10 scrimmage touchdowns in each of the past two seasons, becoming the first running back tandem in NFL history to have two such seasons (at all, not just consecutively), according to ESPN Research. — Eric Woodyard Biggest concern: Offensive line. After a 15-win season in 2024, Detroit continues to navigate through two key losses on the O-line. The Lions lost four-time Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow to retirement and veteran guard Kevin Zeitler, who signed with the Tennessee Titans this offseason. One of the biggest concerns is whether the offensive production will continue to be among the league’s elite as veteran Graham Glasgow is switching from guard to center and rookie guard Tate Ratledge probably will assume a starting role. — Woodyard 5. Buffalo BillsChances to make the playoffs: 81.1%Chances to win division: 66.5%Projected wins: 10.6Strength of schedule: Ninth easiest (tie)2024 record: 13-4 Biggest concern: Will the changes to the defense be enough? The Bills heavily invested in the defensive line, through the draft and free agency, and the health of DE Joey Bosa and some of the young players’ ability to develop will be key. There are also some real unknowns when it comes to the secondary, including the health of CBs Tre’Davious White and Maxwell Hairston. — Getzenberg How to win your fantasy league: WR Khalil Shakir. He caught 73 passes in 2024 and averaged 12.7 PPG. While he is not a high-volume target in the low red zone (three end zone targets in 2024), the Bills’ route tree maximizes his skill set after the catch. Savvy and tough in space, Shakir averaged 7.9 YAC last season, and he posted 11 games with double-digit production. You can win with that at the WR3 spot in your lineup. — Bowen Bold prediction for 2025: TE Dalton Kincaid will record at least 900 receiving yards. This is more of a feeling than anything else, but sometimes it takes tight ends a few seasons to really settle in and make an impact. Kincaid was a highly touted prospect who flashed his potential in a 73-reception, 673-yard rookie season in 2023. Plus, there are still questions about other playmakers in Buffalo, so he ought to get his fair share of targets. — Walder 6. Green Bay PackersChances to make the playoffs: 56.4%Chances to win division: 29.0%Projected wins: 9.2Strength of schedule: Fifth hardest (tie)2024 record: 11-6 Biggest strength: Experience on offense — finally. That might sound counterintuitive given that this has been the youngest team in the NFL the past two seasons — and likely will have one of the youngest rosters again this year — but the core of this group, including Jordan Love and most of his pass catchers — have grown together. GM Brian Gutekunst’s idea was for the quarterback and his young skill-position players to have time to build chemistry together. Along the way, they picked up some valuable postseason scars that could benefit them in the playoffs the next time around. — Rob Demovsky Biggest concern: A few days ago, this would’ve been pass rusher, but then Micah Parsons entered the picture. 7. Cincinnati BengalsChances to make the playoffs: 56.8%Chances to win division: 26.5%Projected wins: 9.2Strength of schedule: 14th hardest2024 record: 9-8 Biggest strength: The receiving corps. When a team shells out $276 million on two wide receivers, it had better be a strength. But it’s not just Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins spearheading that group. Andrei Iosivas is a strong No. 3. And the others among that group — Charlie Jones, Jermaine Burton, Mitchell Tinsley — have flashed consistently during training camp and the preseason. — Ben Baby Biggest concern: Right guard. It’s never a great sign when a starting job isn’t secured by the end of training camp, and Cincinnati still doesn’t have a confirmed starter at right guard. Whether it’s Lucas Patrick or Cody Ford, the starter will need to do his part to keep Joe Burrow upright. Cincinnati ranked last in pass block win rate last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Baby 8. Washington CommandersChances to make the playoffs: 54.3%Chances to win division: 28.7%Projected wins: 9.1Strength of schedule: Eighth hardest2024 record: 12-5 Biggest strength: Jayden Daniels. One opposing coach said in the offseason that Daniels “makes a lot of wrongs right” because of his explosive ability with his arm (3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns) and legs (891 yards, six touchdowns). He infuses confidence, making teammates believe they can win any game. Multiple receivers had their best seasons playing with him last season, including Terry McLaurin, who had a career-high 13 touchdown receptions. Tight end Zach Ertz called Daniels the leader of the team and said, “It’s crazy to think he’s only in his second year.” — John Keim Biggest concern: Offensive chemistry — especially early in the season. How to win your fantasy league: RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt. With the team trading away Brian Robinson Jr., there is an opportunity here for Croskey-Merritt to establish a role in a backfield share with Austin Ekeler. Croskey-Merritt has flashed during the preseason with his short-area acceleration and decisive running style. With the potential for flex upside in the lineup, I’d take a chance on the rookie in the later rounds. — Bowen Bold prediction for 2025: The Commanders will finish below .500. Sure, they could continue their ascent. But there are a lot of ways this season could go sideways for the Commanders. The aging defense with a lack of pass rush could fail them, injury or decline could strike McLaurin (their receiving group is weak behind him), or Daniels’ early-down numbers from a season ago (merely average!) could be a better indication of who he is going forward. — Walder 9. Los Angeles ChargersChances to make the playoffs: 55.9%Chances to win division: 24.3%Projected wins: 9.2Strength of schedule: 11th hardest (tie)2024 record: 11-6 Biggest concern: Offensive line. The Chargers’ interior line was somewhat of this team’s Achilles heel last season, largely responsible for L.A. not having a dominant rushing offense. Now the Chargers will be without Pro Bowl left tackle Rashawn Slater and are starting the same center (Bradley Bozeman) and left guard (Zion Johnson) pairing from last season. The one positive for L.A. was signing right guard Mekhi Becton, who should be a significant upgrade on the interior at that spot. — Rhim 10. San Francisco 49ersChances to make the playoffs: 65.2%Chances to win division: 39.2%Projected wins: 9.8Strength of schedule: Easiest2024 record: 6-11 Biggest concern: A lack of experience and depth on defense. Coordinator Robert Saleh has building blocks in DE Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner and CB Deommodore Lenoir, but the rest of the defense is essentially one big question mark. The Niners could end up starting as many as six rookies relatively early in the season on a defense that finished 2024 ranked 29th in points allowed per game (25.6). And if injuries strike again? Well, the Niners have little proven depth behind an already thin group, especially in the secondary. — Wagoner QB stat to know: Since Brock Purdy took over as the full-time starter in Week 14 of the 2022 season, he ranks in the top five in passing yards and QBR, and he leads all quarterbacks in yards per attempt. — ESPN Research How to win your fantasy league: WR Ricky Pearsall. He scored 17 points or more in three of his seven games played as a rookie. In Weeks 17 and 18, he had 14 receptions and averaged 23.8 fantasy points. A detailed route runner who can provide a vertical push in one-on-one matchups, Pearsall will also get opportunities on in-breaking concepts in Shanahan’s offense off play-action, which leads to big plays. — Bowen 11. Denver BroncosChances to make the playoffs: 53.5%Chances to win division: 22.1%Projected wins: 9.1Strength of schedule: 15th hardest2024 record: 10-7 Biggest strength: Yeah, it’s preseason and they haven’t played many opposing starters, but the Broncos’ defense has dominated at every turn. – Jeff Legwold Biggest concern: The Broncos were among the league leaders in total yards during the preseason, but that has been mostly a product of the second- and third-team offenses. The first-team offense has mostly looked meh in limited snaps.. — Legwold 12. Los Angeles RamsChances to make the playoffs: 58.0%Chances to win division: 30.3%Projected wins: 9.3Strength of schedule: 16th easiest2024 record: 10-7 Biggest strength: Their pass rush. The same group that sacked Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold nine times in their playoff game in January has mostly returned in 2025. Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse led all rookies in pressures during the season but said he came into training camp realizing how much better he could get after rewatching every play from last season. “People are like, ‘Oh, you’re good, you’re good,'” Verse said. “No, I’ve got so much farther to go.” — Sarah Barshop Biggest concern: Matthew Stafford’s back. The Rams quarterback, entering his 17th season, is dealing with an aggravated disk in his back and missed nearly the first month of training camp. Though Stafford could still play in the Rams’ season opener against the Texans, there’s a chance this back injury is something the quarterback and the Rams will have to manage all season. — Barshop Bold prediction for 2025: Nacua will lead the NFL in receiving yards. It’s hard to stress just how efficient Nacua was last season: His 3.7 yards per route run last year are the second most by any receiver in the past decade (behind Tyreek Hill in 2023) — even ahead of Cooper Kupp’s monstrous 2021 season (3.2). The biggest question in this case might simply be whether Stafford can stay healthy long enough to get his receiver there. — Walder 13. Minnesota VikingsChances to make the playoffs: 43.9%Chances to win division: 19.0%Projected wins: 8.6Strength of schedule: Fifth hardest (tie)2024 record: 14-3 Biggest strength: The Vikings used the value of quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s rookie contract to assemble a talented — and expensive — roster around him. Ten of their projected 22 starters have been named to at least one Pro Bowl, three of whom they signed in March: center Ryan Kelly, along with defensive linemen Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. All told, the Vikings have committed roughly $350 million in cash to their 2025 roster. — Kevin Seifert Biggest concern: McCarthy is more of an unknown than a concern, but his lack of experience — he became the first quarterback in the modern era to miss his entire rookie season because of injury after being drafted in the first round — is the biggest question on the team. He displayed moxie and precocious leadership skills during training camp but also revealed a level of inaccuracy that the Vikings hope will resolve itself as he settles into the role. — Seifert Bold prediction for 2025: Running back Jordan Mason will record at least 1,100 rushing yards. He’ll split work with Aaron Jones Sr., but I expect Mason to lead the team in rush attempts. He recorded 207 rush yards over expectation last season in San Francisco, and I could see the pass-happy Vikings running a little more to support their rookie quarterback. — Walder 14. Houston TexansChances to make the playoffs: 54.3%Chances to win division: 42.5%Projected wins: 8.8Strength of schedule: 14th easiest (tie)2024 record: 10-7 Biggest strength: The Texans’ strong suit is their edge rushers, led by Pro Bowlers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. Last season, the duo combined for 23 sacks, and there is no reason to believe they can’t reach 30. That might seem ambitious, but the secondary Houston has will force quarterbacks to hold the ball a tick longer, which should give them time to rack up more sacks. — DJ Bien-Aime Biggest concern: Most of the starters on the offensive line have struggled throughout their career, or at least recently. Tackle Aireontae Ersery looked promising in camp, though he is a rookie, and T Tytus Howard is proven. But outside of them, the starters could be a few guys who have been castoffs. So how will that come together in a pivotal Year 3 for coach DeMeco Ryans? — Bien-Aime 15. Tampa Bay BuccaneersChances to make the playoffs: 58.9%Chances to win division: 48.7%Projected wins: 9.0Strength of schedule: 14th easiest (tie)2024 record: 10-7 Biggest strength: The offense. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is coming off back-to-back career-best seasons. He threw 41 touchdowns in 2024, a season in which he didn’t have all of his playmakers. The Bucs’ receiving corps has taken two huge injury hits with Chris Godwin likely not playing until October and Jalen McMillan out until November, so the team will need to lean on Mayfield once again to run the show. — Jenna Laine Biggest concern: Pressure off the edge. The Bucs defense couldn’t get off the field on third down in their wild-card playoff loss to the Commanders, and they got a lot deeper in their secondary to help address this. But on the edge, though they signed Haason Reddick in free agency, draft pick David Walker suffered a torn ACL, Yaya Diaby is still learning how to finish, and Chris Braswell has yet to really flash going into Year 2. — Laine 16. Pittsburgh SteelersChances to make the playoffs: 44.6%Chances to win division: 18.5%Projected wins: 8.6Strength of schedule: 10th hardest2024 record: 10-7 Biggest strength: Defensive physicality. The Steelers’ strength entering this season was their undoing in their 2024 season-ending five-game losing streak. To rectify the issue, they drafted defensive linemen Derrick Harmon and Yahya Black, traded for CB Jalen Ramsey and signed CB Darius Slay. Adding those players to a defense that already includes a newly extended LB T.J. Watt and DT Cameron Heyward, who is coming off an All-Pro season, figures to return this group to the unit that held teams to 16.9 points per game through the first 11 weeks — not the one that gave up 27 PPG in the last seven of 2024. — Brooke Pryor Biggest concern: Offensive cohesion. The Steelers were OK with QB Aaron Rodgers taking his time to sign in the offseason, but now he, his offensive options and line must expedite their chemistry. Not only does Rodgers have to develop a strong connection with wide receivers, including DK Metcalf and Roman Wilson, in a condensed timeframe, but he also has to work with young offensive linemen to understand his cadence — all without playing snaps together in preseason games. Adding to the challenge is Broderick Jones moving from right tackle to left tackle and a new-look backfield after the departure of Najee Harris. — Pryor 17. Chicago BearsChances to make the playoffs: 35.1%Chances to win division: 13.5%Projected wins: 8.2Strength of schedule: Second hardest (tie)2024 record: 5-12 Biggest strength: Offensive weapons. The Bears added rookie tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden III to an already stacked group of returning pass catchers that features Rome Odunze, DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. Quarterback Caleb Williams has connected with all five of these players, but arguably his strongest chemistry in camp was built with wideout Olamide Zaccheaus, who arrived on a one-year deal in March. Ben Johnson has plenty of players looking for touches on offense, and that’s a good problem to have for the first-year coach. — Courtney Cronin Biggest concern: Left tackle. It’s a position battle that spanned nearly all of camp and seems to have landed where it started, with incumbent left tackle Braxton Jones in line to start Week 1 versus Minnesota. The Bears poured a ton of resources into revamping the O-line this offseason, but how well the linemen will protect Williams’ blind side after he was sacked 68 times as a rookie remains a question. — Cronin 18. Arizona CardinalsChances to make the playoffs: 38.1%Chances to win division: 16.1%Projected wins: 8.3Strength of schedule: Fifth easiest (tie)2024 record: 8-9 Biggest strength: The defensive front. The Cardinals invested heavily in rebuilding their defensive line and edge rushers, signing pass rusher Josh Sweat and linemen Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell, and drafting edge rusher Jordan Burch. It has led to the Cardinals having their best and deepest defensive front in some time. But if that front can’t get to the quarterback and regularly stop the run, all the work general manager Monti Ossenfort put in and all the money he spent will have gone for naught. — Josh Weinfuss Biggest concern: Will Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. be on the same page in 2025? 19. Dallas CowboysChances to make the playoffs: 28.2%Chances to win division: 11.5%Projected wins: 7.7Strength of schedule: Fifth hardest (tie)2024 record: 7-10 Biggest strength: First-year coach Brian Schottenheimer can say he wants to run the ball, but his biggest strength will be the passing game that revolves around Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Lamb can beat defenses at any level, and Pickens can get down the field with some of the best. And the last time Prescott played a full season (2023), he was the MVP runner-up. When it comes to crunch time, Schottenheimer will put his trust in this trio. — Todd Archer Biggest concern: The defense. The trade of Micah Parsons gives the Cowboys questions everywhere. Can their pass rushers produce without as much attention being paid to Parsons? Do they have enough corners, even with Trevon Diggs on the roster to start the season? Is DT Kenny Clark, acquired it the Parsons trade, enough to fix a run defense that has been leaky for years? New coordinator Matt Eberflus has his work cut out for him. — Archer QB stat to know: In the 25 games started by Prescott over the past two seasons when Schottenheimer was the offensive coordinator, the Cowboys averaged 27.2 PPG, which would’ve been the fourth highest by any team during that span, behind the Lions (30.1), Ravens (29.4) and Bills (28.7). — ESPN Research 20. Seattle SeahawksChances to make the playoffs: 33.5%Chances to win division: 14.3%Projected wins: 8.1Strength of schedule: 11th easiest (tie)2024 record: 10-7 Biggest strength: Continuity on defense. The Seahawks finished ninth in points allowed during coach Mike Macdonald’s debut season and have almost every key player back. In fact, 13 of the 16 defenders who played at least 300 snaps last season are still with the team. The same scheme taught by the same coaches to mostly the same group of players — with veteran edge DeMarcus Lawrence and rookie safety Nick Emmanwori as key additions — is good reason to think Macdonald’s group can take a step forward. — Brady Henderson Biggest concern: Lack of continuity on offense. They’ve got a new coordinator, Klint Kubiak, who’s installing a new scheme with a mostly new coaching staff. They also have at least six new starters on that side of the ball, including quarterback Sam Darnold and two of his top three receivers. Kubiak’s unit has looked good enough of late not to be a major concern, but how quickly will all of those new players come together? 21. Miami DolphinsChances to make the playoffs: 34.9%Chances to win division: 14.7%Projected wins: 8.1Strength of schedule: 11th easiest (tie)2024 record: 8-9 Biggest strength: The front seven. They’re tired of hearing about their durability, but if Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb and Chop Robinson can remain healthy, the Dolphins will have one of the better pass rushes in the NFL this season. Factor in defensive linemen Zach Sieler and Kenneth Grant, and versatile linebackers Jordyn Brooks, Tyrel Dodson and Willie Gay Jr., and the core of Miami’s defense shouldn’t have an issue pressuring quarterbacks and defending the run. — Marcel Louis-Jacques Biggest concern: The players behind that front seven — the secondary. Miami knows what it’s getting in Minkah Fitzpatrick but has a completely revamped secondary from a season ago. Second-year UDFA Storm Duck figures to start opposite Jack Jones at cornerback, and the group is unproven together. The Dolphins haven’t shown much concern for the group this offseason and believe the success of their defense starts up front. — Louis-Jacques Bold prediction for 2025: WR Tyreek Hill will be traded. It’s hardly the boldest call on this list, considering how last year ended, but if Miami’s season goes south quickly — and it certainly could — it will make sense to deal Hill midway through the campaign to maximize the return as soon as possible rather than holding on to an aging player as a non-contender in the second half. – Walder 22. Jacksonville JaguarsChances to make the playoffs: 39.3%Chances to win division: 27.1%Projected wins: 8.1Strength of schedule: Ninth easiest (tie)2024 record: 4-13 Biggest strength: The Jaguars have arguably the best specialists in the league. Punter Logan Cooke made his first Pro Bowl last season and has the best net punt average (43.5 yards) and the most punts downed inside the 10-yard line (83) since entering the NFL in 2018. Long-snapper Ross Matiscik made the past two Pro Bowls and was a first-team All-Pro in 2023. Kicker Cam Little made 27 of 29 field goal attempts (including a 59-yarder) and all 27 PATs as a rookie last season. He hit a 70-yarder in the first preseason game earlier this month. — Mike DiRocco Biggest concern: The run defense is a concern, but the defense’s lack of takeaways was a major issue last season. The Jaguars forced only nine turnovers, the fewest by a team in the 17-game era (tying the record Jacksonville set in 2021). That includes just six interceptions, which was a big reason the Jaguars were last in the NFL in pass defense (257.4 yards per game). They added three new starters in the secondary — corners Jourdan Lewis and Travis Hunter and safety Eric Murray — and pass rushers Emmanuel Ogbah (47.5 career sacks) and Dawuane Smoot (25), as well as new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile. — DiRocco Bold prediction for 2025: The percentage of snaps Hunter plays will total at least 145% if we add offense and defense. There have been plenty of signs that the Jaguars intend to give Hunter a major role on both sides of the ball, but it’s one thing to intend to do that in August and another to have him execute that plan during the regular season. I’m a believer, though. People don’t play both ways in college either, and Hunter did it at altitude. — Walder 23. Indianapolis ColtsChances to make the playoffs: 32.0%Chances to win division: 21.1%Projected wins: 7.7Strength of schedule: Eighth easiest2024 record: 8-9 Biggest strength: Defensive line. The Colts rank in the top 10 in spending on interior defensive linemen and edge rushers, and that has created perhaps the team’s strongest position group. The unit is anchored by DT DeForest Buckner and has several solid veterans throughout, such as DEs Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam and NT Grover Stewart. The additions of 2024 first-round choice Laiatu Latu and this year’s second-round pick JT Tuimoloau give the group a chance to reach the next level. — Stephen Holder Biggest concern: Quarterback. The Colts have selected Daniel Jones as their Week 1 starter over third-year player and incumbent starter Anthony Richardson Sr., the latest domino to fall in the team’s woeful quarterback story. Jones will be the Colts’ 11th different starting quarterback in a regular-season game since Andrew Luck abruptly retired before the 2019 season. Indianapolis’ lack of stability at the position continues to undermine what is otherwise a mostly solid roster. — Holder QB stat to know: Jones is 4-0 against the AFC South in his career, and his QBR of 81 in those games is the highest by any quarterback with at least three starts against his new division over the past five seasons. — ESPN Research 24. Las Vegas RaidersChances to make the playoffs: 24.1%Chances to win division: 6.9%Projected wins: 7.5Strength of schedule: 16th hardest2024 record: 4-13 Biggest strength: Coaching. Pete Carroll has only four losing seasons in his 18-year NFL coaching career. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who helped Ohio State win a national title last season, has plenty of players to get creative with his scheme. Even though Las Vegas has a strong foundation for the future, Carroll wants to win right away, and his team will be competitive enough to give opponents problems weekly. — Ryan McFadden Biggest concern: Depth. The Raiders have a significant talent drop-off at multiple positions. Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker are the only wide receivers to surpass 500 yards in a season. Eric Stokes has started 32 career games, and the rest of the group has a combined 22 starts. If the Raiders are to overcome their depth issues, they will need rookies such as wide receiver Dont’e Thornton Jr., cornerback Darien Porter, and defensive tackles Tonka Hemingway and JJ Pegues to be solid contributors. — McFadden QB stat to know: Over the past three seasons, Geno Smith has been one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, ranking fourth in completion percentage and first in off-target rate. Over that span, Raiders quarterbacks ranked 25th in completion percentage and 23rd in off-target rate. — ESPN Research Bold prediction for 2025: Kelly will be an NFL head coach in 2026. OK, technically that isn’t a bold prediction for 2025, but there’s no way Kelly will land another head coaching job unless his Raiders offense in 2025 does well. Once it does, owners will zoom out and look at that, his success at Ohio State, his time as UCLA’s head coach and parts of his previous NFL tenure and think: That’s a pretty good résumé! — Walder 25. Atlanta FalconsChances to make the playoffs: 37.4%Chances to win division: 26.5%Projected wins: 8.1Strength of schedule: 13th easiest2024 record: 8-9 Biggest strength: The running game. Bijan Robinson was third in the league in rushing yards (1,456) and tied for the third-most rushing touchdowns (14). Tyler Allgeier is one of the best No. 2 backs in the NFL (he has a 1,000-yard rushing season), and the offensive line is among the league’s best units, with a rare amount of continuity. The Falcons were fourth last season in percentage of rush yards over expected (38.8%). — Marc Raimondi Biggest concern: Will second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. be as good as the Falcons think? Penix performed relatively well in his three 2024 starts. In that limited time, he was tied for ninth among quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (0.11, minimum 100 dropbacks). He is aggressive and will make big plays. Penix was tied for first last season in air yards per completion (8.0). But his accuracy must improve. In 2024, he was fifth worst in completion percentage over expected (-5.3%). — Raimondi 26. New England PatriotsChances to make the playoffs: 30.5%Chances to win division: 13.1%Projected wins: 7.9Strength of schedule: Third easiest2024 record: 4-13 Biggest strength: Rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson. It is perhaps bold to highlight a rookie second-round pick, but he is unlike any RB the Patriots have had speed-wise in recent years, and he has also shown a knack for running between the tackles, as evidenced by his 100-yard return for a TD on the opening kickoff of the preseason and his 8-yard TD run in Week 2. The Patriots finally have a player who is a threat to score any time he touches the football. — Mike Reiss Biggest concern: Depth across the roster. The drop-off from starter to backup at the majority of positions is significant, which highlights the organization’s struggle at drafting and developing in recent years. However, the 2025 draft class appears to be a solid foundation, with three projected opening-day starters (not including specialists). — Reiss 27. New York GiantsChances to make the playoffs: 11.3%Chances to win division: 3.9%Projected wins: 6.4Strength of schedule: Hardest2024 record: 7-10 Biggest strength: The defensive front. Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence II were in the top 20 in pressure percentage at their respective positions last season. Kayvon Thibodeaux already has a double-digit sack season (11.5 in 2023). Add No. 3 draft pick Abdul Carter to that mix, and the Giants’ pass rush has the potential to be lethal. Now, the Giants have to get the lead and stop the run to maximize that talent. — Jordan Raanan Biggest concern: Can the offense score enough? The Giants have raved about veteran quarterback Russell Wilson’s leadership and the effect it will have on the group. But is it enough to turn the 31st-ranked scoring offense into a more effective unit? New York returns 10 of 11 starters on offense, and perhaps its most indispensable player, left tackle Andrew Thomas, was recently activated off the PUP list and didn’t play a preseason snap. — Raanan Bold prediction for 2025: QB Jaxson Dart will make his first start no later than Week 5. There has been buzz around Dart’s preseason, and I can’t imagine the Giants are too excited to cling to the Wilson era longer than they have to with a first-round QB waiting in the wings. Facing the Saints in Week 5 could be a nice soft landing for Dart to begin his NFL career. — Walder 28. Carolina PanthersChances to make the playoffs: 21.0%Chances to win division: 14.0%Projected wins: 7.0Strength of schedule: Fifth easiest (tie)2024 record: 5-12 Biggest strength: The starting offensive line. Everyone is back, plus key backups, from a unit that allowed 36 sacks last season, which was way down from the 65 it gave up in 2023. This group also paved the way for the 18th-best rushing attack in 2024. Not great but a key to the offense’s improvement, nonetheless. This bodes well for QB Bryce Young, whose late-season performance was bolstered by better protection and a strong run game. — David Newton Biggest concern: The defense. There could be as many as six new starters on a unit that finished last in the NFL in several major categories last season, most notably run defense, quarterback pressure, total yards allowed and total points allowed. Getting Pro Bowl DL Derrick Brown back will help. So will the free agent additions. But overall, the depth is thin, and it might take a while for this group to jell. — Newton How to win your fantasy league: WR Tetairoa McMillan. More smooth than fast, McMillan can play as a boundary X or create inside matchups from the slot. With his 6-4 frame, he can get up high on contested throws, and he has a good feel for finding open voids versus zone concepts. McMillan will play a volume role as a rookie, which creates a WR3 floor. — Bowen Bold prediction for 2025: The Panthers will record the fewest sacks in the league. For starters, I don’t see where the pass rush is coming from (especially if rookie Nic Scourton misses time after suffering a collapsed lung). But also, I doubt the Panthers will be leading in many games. If they’re behind, their opponents will run on them, limiting the sack opportunities. — Walder 29. New York JetsChances to make the playoffs: 15.6%Chances to win division: 5.7%Projected wins: 6.9Strength of schedule: Seventh easiest2024 record: 5-12 Biggest strength: Defense. They still have six of their top nine snap leaders from the 2023 defense, which finished No. 3 in EPA. Edge rusher Will McDonald IV, a seldom-used rookie in 2023, is now one of their top players. This unit has talent at all three levels. Look for more blitzing and more man coverage than in recent years. The defense will have to carry the flag until the offense finds its way. — Rich Cimini Biggest concern: Justin Fields and the passing attack. Fields is only a 61% career passer who has yet to throw more than 17 touchdowns in a season, and now he has a receiving corps that includes just one legitimate playmaker (Garrett Wilson). The Jets will rely on scheme (RPOs and play-action) to create open looks for Fields. This will be a run-first offense, with Breece Hall, Braelon Allen and Fields leading the way. — Cimini 30. Cleveland BrownsChances to make the playoffs: 8.5%Chances to win division: 2.3%Projected wins: 6.1Strength of schedule: 13th hardest2024 record: 3-14 Biggest strength: Defensive line. Myles Garrett is a year removed from being named Defensive Player of the Year, and the Browns have multiple players equipped to take advantage of one-on-one opportunities as he commands extra attention. Free agent signing Maliek Collins had the seventh-highest pass rush win rate as an interior defender last season, and Mason Graham, the No. 5 pick, had nine sacks in three seasons with Michigan. — Daniel Oyefusi Biggest concern: Quarterback. Joe Flacco will begin the year as the starter, but he hasn’t played an entire season since 2017. Kenny Pickett is on his third team in four years, and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders might not be ready to play for a while. The Browns have started a league-high 40 passers since 1999, and the likelihood is they add more players to that tally. — Oyefusi QB stat to know: The Browns desperately need an upgrade at quarterback this season. In 2024, their quarterbacks had a 35 QBR, the worst in the league. In addition, Cleveland has not had a Pro Bowl QB since Derek Anderson in 2007, the longest active drought in the NFL. — ESPN Research 31. Tennessee TitansChances to make the playoffs: 15.6%Chances to win division: 9.3%Projected wins: 6.7Strength of schedule: Fourth easiest2024 record: 3-14 Biggest strength: Offensive line. General manager Mike Borgonzi wanted to invest in the trenches, so Tennessee strengthened both tackle spots by signing Dan Moore Jr. and flipping JC Latham to the right side. Kevin Zeitler helps shore up the interior next to Latham. The Titans now have two Day 1 picks in Latham and Peter Skoronski on the line and two free agents on lucrative deals in Moore and Lloyd Cushenberry III (center) to go along with Zeitler, who’s a proven veteran. — Turron Davenport Biggest concern: Coach Brian Callahan. The once highly sought-after coach struggled last season, but he is clawing to find his way. Callahan has to show that he can effectively call plays and outfox opposing coaches. That will be difficult with a roster that doesn’t have a lot of premier players. The front office is willing to show patience with Callahan because it believes he can get it right. Developing No. 1 draft pick Cam Ward will be the key. — Davenport 32. New Orleans SaintsChances to make the playoffs: 17.1%Chances to win division: 10.9%Projected wins: 6.8Strength of schedule: Second easiest2024 record: 5-12 Biggest strength: Safeties. The Saints have revamped their secondary, as four of their Week 1 starters in the backfield from last year are gone (Marshon Lattimore traded, Paulson Adebo and Will Harris left in free agency, Tyrann Mathieu retired). But the Saints made two solid signings at safety, adding Justin Reid early in free agency and getting Julian Blackmon after Mathieu’s departure. Both become instant starters and bring veteran experience, while rookie safety Jonas Sanker has had an impressive camp. This group didn’t show signs of falling off in camp despite Mathieu’s surprise retirement. — Katherine Terrell Biggest concern: Quarterback. The Saints took their quarterback competition through the preseason — an indication that neither Tyler Shough nor Spencer Rattler had made an obvious case to win the job early. Last week, coach Kellen Moore announced that Rattler won the job. The Saints didn’t have a lot of depth at their skill positions last season because of injuries, and that remains the case beyond Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. That means the team will need Rattler to step up big to elevate the rest of the offense. — Terrell |
| 2026 DRAFTNate Tice of YahooSports.com has a Big Board of top prospects – and Texas QB ARCH MANNING remains in his Top Ten even after Saturday’s events in Columbus: 1. Peter Woods, DT, Clemson, JuniorA monster in the middle. That’s what Woods is. A 6-foot-4, 300-plus pound interior game wrecker that has the athleticism to play on the outside, too. Woods is a powerful defender with light feet that plays hard and has the ability to impact the run or pass on every down. His top-notch combination of strength and agility would fit in any type of defense. Woods reminds me a lot of Jets star Quinnen William and former Seahawks great Cortez Kennedy. He fits in any type of defense and can eat blocks and be disruptive. Every defense would be thrilled to add Woods and he could be a scheme-proof impact player right away at the next level. This is why he tops the big board as my No. 1 player. 2. Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State, JuniorSafety prospects, even the most talented and highly regarded ones, seldom go high in the first round of the draft. Downs is the type of defender, and just pure football player, to buck that trend. He is explosive, has good size and can take over a game in a multitude of ways. Ohio State has used Downs as a rover-type defender (an aptly named “Monster Back” in some football parlances), to allow Downs to weaponize his upper-echelon football awareness, intelligence and ability to impact the game. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia used Downs as a middle pole runner on Cover 2 and on the line of scrimmage as a blitzer Saturday against Texas, helping stifle the Longhorns’ offense. When you watch the defending national champion’s defense this season, make sure to find where No. 2 (both on his jersey and on this boardy) is located. 3. Arch Manning, QB, Texas, RS SophomoreI reviewed Arch Manning’s 2024 film a few months ago and wrote about it if you want a deeper look at him. The TL;DR: I thought the hype surrounding Manning was absolutely justified based on the glimpses and early growth he showed in that small sample size. It’s anyone’s guess whether he is going to declare or return to Texas after this season, which means we might be putting the cart before the horse anyways. Manning’s play Saturday against Ohio State again showed some of the glimpses of his talent, but his inconsistent first outing also showed why it might be another year before he declares anyways. Manning appeared too amped up throughout the game, with some rough misses underneath (his footwork was inconsistent at times, which made throwing to crossing routes an adventure) along with a few plays where he seemed to be pressing or tried to be too perfect with his decisions (the interception on the sideline throw comes to mind). There were high-end throws made late in the game, particularly the sideline toss to his TE Jack Endries (a player I have a current Day 2 grade on) along with some good runs where he got to the edge against a fast and feisty Buckeyes defense, with Matt Patricia having a great game plan to frustrate an aggressive quarterback (and play-caller in Steve Sarkisian). Manning’s play and Texas’ success this season will ultimately determine whether he returns or not for 2026. But Manning’s combination of size, arm talent and athletic twitch is everything you want from a potential franchise signal-caller. His up-and-down first outing in 2025 showed that while he’s still talented, he is still an inexperienced signal-caller, especially against that type of opponent. The team selecting No. 1 in the NFL Draft is as big of a factor as anything else, too. Remember, Peyton dragged out his decision on whether to declare or return to school all the way to early March before deciding to return to Tennessee his senior season. And Eli was selected No. 1 by the Chargers before forcing a trade to the Giants. I didn’t list Manning on my Too Early Big Board a few months ago. But until it’s clear he’s returning to school, I’ve made the decision to list Manning on this big board. 4. Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah, RS SophomoreLomu is an easy mover in a big frame (6-foot-6, 308 pounds) with room to add even more weight. He already shows off polished technique with patient hands as a pass protector, with some strength and pop in the run game, too. Lomu took over as Utah’s left tackle and moved his talented teammate Spencer Fano (who also appears on this big board) to the right side. The strength (with a little bit of nasty to him), light feet and technique that Lomu displayed as a redshirt freshman make me excited to watch how he develops in 2025. 5. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana, RS JuniorAs I wrote at the beginning of summer: Mendoza is my QB1 entering the season in the non-Arch Manning category. A tall athlete (6-5) with a loose arm and frame to add more weight, Mendoza can put some real zip on the football on underneath and intermediate throws. Mendoza shows off polish with his footwork and pocket movement, and already has snaps with encouraging signs of progressing and moving in the pocket to find answers. He’s consistently accurate at all three levels of the field, even when moved off his launch point. He already shows off a knack for locating the football away from defenders. Mendoza is a good athlete who can create a bit with his legs, too, but prefers to win as a thrower. He’s an intriguing package of traits and polish with a high IQ (he’s deadly in two-minute situations) and real feel for the position. There are some similarities to Matt Ryan. He took a lot of sacks at Cal, which he’ll need to clean up, but I attribute some of that to the porous OL and the offensive system. His stock is about to rise rapidly in Indiana’s offense. 6. LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina, RS SophomoreAlready a ridiculous runner and playmaker with the football, it’s Sellers’ improvement as a passer and blinding flashes of improvisational wizardry, that makes him so exciting as a prospect. Sellers has a high-end arm that he can access from all platforms and is an excellent athlete. He still needs to work on consistently working from the pocket, but he really came along in his first year starting, which combined with his size (listed 6-3, 242 pounds) and youth (turned 20 in June) makes him a player who could ascend to the No. 1 spot on this board by next spring. 7. T.J. Parker, Edge, Clemson, JuniorA powerful defender who is effective against the run and pass. Parker has strong hands and likes to push the pocket as a pass rusher. He is an explosive athlete who fires off the football and is constantly attacking blockers right after the snap. He’s not the bendiest athlete, but Parker’s strength and ability to impact the run and pass will let him translate easily to the next level. Clemson’s defense is going to be quite something this year. 8. Keldric Faulk, Edge, Auburn, JuniorFaulk is a smooth athlete who can bend and knife inside on stunts and really disrupt run games. Currently, his pass rush move set is him spamming buttons and hoping it works. If he develops a better plan, along with some more strength and pop, his fluidity, length and hard-working style could help him become a disruptive every-down edge. 9. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame, JuniorEvery touch has a chance to go to the house with Love. He has home-run ability, but really knows how to throttle between speeds to use it effectively. Love has good vision and is a strong runner who can take a steady stream of touches. He can work between the tackles and is able to set up his blocks as a runner, constantly staying balanced and square to the line. 10. Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU, RS SeniorI really like Nussmeier’s combination of aggressiveness, throwing creativity, anticipation and ability to avoid sacks. His size (listed 6-2, 205) is just average for the position, so I will be curious what his weight would be in the pre-draft cycle. But he has a real understanding for playing the position, is a better athlete than his rushing numbers indicate, and has performed in clutch moments for LSU. He still has to rein in some of his devil-may-care tendencies, but Nussmeier handled a lot in LSU’s offense and was often very good while doing so. He is a lot of fun to watch. |
