AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
| NFC EAST |
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PHILADELPHIA
An update on TE DALLAS GOEDERT and his contract. Nick Shook of NFL.com:
Zach Ertz is happy again in Philadelphia. The Eagles might need to overachieve to keep his running mate content.
Dallas Goedert is entering a contract year in 2021, his fourth and final season of his rookie deal after being drafted in the second round in 2018. He’s due for a renewal and a pay raise, one that seemed inevitable when things weren’t looking so good for Ertz and Philadelphia. But now that that’s mended for at least 2021, Goedert has become the one pondering an uncertain future.
“My representation, we talked about it earlier. We thought we’d have a deal done by this time of the year,” Goedert said Monday. “But the team decided to go a different way. We haven’t got that done yet.
“I’m not too worried about it. I believe in what I can do, I believe in me being able to go out and perform and whatever happens happens. But I’m not too worried about my contract right now. I just want to focus on winning games, winning the division and ultimately winning the Super Bowl.”
Winning cures everything, but the Eagles could go 20-0, secure their second Lombardi Trophy, and they’d still have a decision to make regarding the tight end position. Ertz is also in the final year of his five-year, $42.5 million extension signed back in early 2016. He’s going to account for a cap number of $1.77 million for each of the next two years due to the void years included in his existing extension. And he’s not getting any younger.
Goedert, meanwhile, is entering his prime, and because we’ve only seen glimpses of what he might look like as an unquestioned No. 1 tight end, it’s tough to project the type of salary he can command. He is, however, similar to Ertz in many ways, making a transition from having both to a new era with Goedert as the main guy a logical and feasibly seamless one.
That just won’t happen in 2021 — even if we’ve been anticipating a split between Ertz and the Eagles for nearly two years.
Although it complicates his financial matters, Goedert sounds pleased with this reality.
“Honestly, I feel like it gives more problems to the defense than it does to myself. All I’ve ever really known is playing with Zach,” Goedert explained. “To have two of the top tight ends in the league I think is beneficial for both of us. I think we’ll both be utilized. I’m just excited to play with him for another year.”
Another year very well could be his last, unless the Eagles can find a way to give Goedert a raise and at least start the succession process while also keeping Ertz around in the city in which he wants to retire at a lower rate.
Football players are largely wired with a win-now mentality, especially in the fickle NFL, a league that very much relies on what a player has done most recently. With this in mind, it makes perfect sense to hear Goedert talking about being happy to play with Ertz in 2021. It’s the only season on his mind, at least right now.
Come winter, that very well could change — and more changes are likely to follow. |
| NFC SOUTH |
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NEW ORLEANS
The Saints cut WR CHRIS HOGAN, but are not done with him. John Sigler of SaintsWire:
And the first wave of roster moves are already trickling in. NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported Monday that the Saints will re-sign wide receiver Chris Hogan and quarterback Trevor Siemian. ESPN’s Mike Triplett confirmed Siemian’s return after both players were released in final roster cuts last week. The two veterans have extensive pro experience, with Siemian starting 25 of the 27 games he’s played while Hogan suited up for 100 regular season games and nine playoff matchups, winning two Super Bowl rings with the New England Patriots.
We don’t yet know the corresponding moves to bring each player onto the 53-man roster, but there should be a long list of them on the daily NFL transactions wire. The Saints still haven’t made the signings of defensive tackles Montravius Adams and Jaleel Johnson official, so this would put them at 57 players against a limit of 53. Their practice squad also has multiple vacancies.
So look for a number of players to be waived with hopes of returning them to the practice squad, while others like kicker Wil Lutz are sent to injured reserve (opening a spot for Aldrick Rosas, who was also released last week).
But let’s focus on the moves themselves. Siemian would put the Saints at four quarterbacks on the 53-man roster, likely bringing some insurance once Taysom Hill spends more time at tight end and slot receiver after losing the quarterback competition to Jameis Winston. The Saints must not be ready to dress rookie Ian Book this year in an emergency, so he would likely be a healthy scratch on game days. It’s possible the Saints are hoping to sneak him onto the practice squad, but I’m pessimistic on Book clearing waivers without another team poaching him. He could also be stashed on injured reserve, as the Saints did with punter Blake Gillikin last year.
Hogan’s return is more troubling. It feels like bad news for Tre’Quan Smith’s Week 1 availability given their similar builds and play styles; Smith missed most of training camp with a hamstring injury, and while the Saints are optimistic he can suit up against the Packers on Sunday he’ll need to at least go through the motions in practice first. Keep a close eye on the injury report for changes to his status this week. Hopefully he avoids a three-week stint on injured reserve to start the season.
Mike Triplett of ESPN.com on another post cutdown signing, CB DESMON TRUFANT:
The New Orleans Saints have turned to a longtime former rival to add some much-needed experience at the cornerback position. They agreed to a deal with former Atlanta Falcons Pro Bowl defensive back Desmond Trufant after he worked out on Monday, a source confirmed to ESPN.
Trufant, 30, spent his first seven seasons in Atlanta and last year with the Detroit Lions. The 6-foot, 190-pound veteran has started 103 career games with 14 interceptions, and he was selected to the Pro Bowl in 2015.
Trufant will compete for a role as an outside cornerback on the opposite side of Pro Bowl standout Marshon Lattimore. Other candidates for that starting job include veteran Ken Crawley and rookie third-round draft pick Paulson Adebo. No matter who lines up in that spot figures to be tested early and often in Week 1 by the Green Bay Packers and reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers.
The Saints have identified cornerback as a need position ever since they released former starter Janoris Jenkins in March as part of a salary-cap purge. They even attempted to trade up nearly 20 spots in the NFL draft to acquire Jaycee Horn or Pat Surtain II. Then their options dwindled even further when veteran Patrick Robinson surprisingly announced his retirement early in training camp. |
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TAMPA BAY
The Buccaneers have everyone off the COVID list and ready to go for Thursday with the possible exception of S JORDAN WHITEHEAD. Scott Smith of Buccaneers.com:
Prior to practice on Monday morning, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers activated defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh from the reserve/COVID-19 list. To make room for Suh on the 53-man roster, the Buccaneers waived rookie kicker Jose Borregales.
Tampa Bay’s COVID list is now currently empty, as Suh was the last of four players activated over the past five days. Suh was placed on the list prior to the team’s final preseason game in Houston along with kicker Ryan Succop and offensive linemen Nick Leverett and Earl Watson.
Suh started all 20 games for the Buccaneers in 2020, including the playoffs. Suh’s return in advance to Thursday’s regular season opener means he can continue his active streaks of 147 consecutive regular-season games played and start, a run that extends back to the final three games of the 2011 campaign. He has never missed a game due to injury or illness in his career.
With Suh back in the fold, the Buccaneers will begin the season with every starter from their 2020 Super Bowl team on the active roster. Jordan Whitehead, who also started all 20 games last season, is the only player who did not participate in practice on Sunday, as he is recovering from a hamstring injury. |
| NFC WEST |
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LOS ANGELES RAMS
For all the adamant statements out of Chicago that the only spot for QB JUSTIN FIELDS is on the bench, Rams coach Sean McVay has his suspicions. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
The Bears have been adamant that Andy Dalton is their starting quarterback, and rookie Justin Fields‘ job will be to learn from the sideline. But Rams head coach Sean McVay says his defense will be ready for Fields.
McVay indicated that he thinks the Bears may have a package of plays designed to utilize Fields’ talents, even though the Rams are preparing primarily to face Dalton.
“I think it would be naive for us not to prepare for them to be able to utilize him in some form or fashion,” McVay said. “But Andy is a winning quarterback in this league, does a great job. I really have seen a lot of film of Andy, even going back to when Jay Gruden was his coordinator at Cincinnati. So, very familiar with what a really good quarterback he is. He does a great job, accurate, anticipation, recognizes the looks defensively, can straighten up protections. So Andy Dalton’s a really good quarterback and it’ll be a great challenge. And then you see the ways that Justin made a lot of plays going back to his career at Ohio State, what he showed in the preseason. So, I think you got to be ready for either.”
Fields is a much better runner than Dalton and would present a different challenge to defenses, and the mere fact that the Rams are spending time preparing to see Fields may be helpful to the Bears. |
| AFC NORTH |
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BALTIMORE
TE MARK ANDREWS has been shown the money. Adam Maya of NFL.com:
Happy birthday, Mark Andrews.
On the day he turned 26, the Ravens tight end agreed to terms on a four-year extension worth $56 million, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Monday. The $14 million annual value makes Andrews the third highest-paid player at his position. Baltimore later confirmed the deal, which is good through the 2025 season.
“We are thrilled to announce a four-year contract extension with Mark Andrews on his birthday,” Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said in a statement. “Mark is exactly the type of player we wish to keep as a Raven long-term. He’s competitive, passionate, talented and a leader. We are so excited to have him in Baltimore for the next five years. Congratulations to Mark and his family — and happy birthday.”
Baltimore has gotten its money’s worth since selecting Andrews in the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft. Per NFL Research, Andrews is one of six tight ends in league history with 2,000-plus receiving yards and 20 TD catches over his first three seasons.
Since 2019, he’s first in touchdown catches (17), fourth in receiving yards (1,553) and fifth in receptions (122) among tight ends. That’s all despite the Ravens running the ball far more often than any other team in the league.
Locking up Andrews was one of Baltimore’s primary goals before the season, Rapoport added. Doing so, and for four years, means the 2019 Pro Bowler will be only 29 when he hits the market again — if the Ravens allow that to happen. He’s been Lamar Jackson’s primary target, thanks to his ability to separate and earn yards after the catch.
That’s earned Andrews a big deal, and perhaps a lot more wins for the Ravens moving forward.
– – –
The Ravens are short at running back with a season-ending injury to RB JUSTICE HILL.
Ravens running back Justice Hill reportedly tore his Achilles tendon in practice last week, likely ending his season and forcing the team to scramble for a replacement ahead of next Monday’s season opener.
Hill, who was not at practice Monday, was reportedly hurt Thursday, according to the NFL Network. Only five days earlier, the Ravens lost starting running back J.K. Dobbins to a season-ending knee injury in their preseason finale. Undrafted rookie Nate McCrary, released during the team’s roster cut-down last week, was claimed off waivers by the Denver Broncos.
That left the Ravens with just two running backs at Monday’s practice, Gus Edwards and Ty’Son Williams, one week before a “Monday Night Football” game against the Las Vegas Raiders. Hill had been recovering from a sprained ankle that limited him during training camp and the preseason. A 2019 fourth-round pick, he had just 12 carries for 60 yards last season but emerged as a special teams contributor.
With the Ravens’ depth waning, former All-Pro running backs Le’Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman were among players who tried out for the team Monday, according to the NFL’s transaction wire, along with running back Elijah Holyfield. |
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PITTSBURGH
What is going on with EDGE T.J. WATT? Chris Adamski of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:
Six days prior to the Pittsburgh Steelers regular-season opener, T.J. Watt’s practice regimen remained the same as it had for the first six weeks of training camp. That would suggest his status for Sunday’s game at the Buffalo Bills is not certain.
Watt’s practice status and participation Monday was status quo, a Steelers spokesman confirmed. Watt regularly has taken part in stretches and individual drills over the past month and a half but has not joined his teammates in 11-on-11 or 7-on-7 play.
Watt is entering the option year of his contract and is eligible for a mega extension he and the Steelers have been in negotiations for in recent months. Defensive coordinator Keith Butler last month confirmed Watt’s lack of participation in full practices was related to the contract situation, and coach Mike Tomlin has signified Watt has his blessing.
The Steelers said Tomlin would address Watt during his weekly news conference Tuesday.
Steelers organizational policy long has been they do not negotiate contracts once the season kicks off, leaving this weekend as a deadline. Neither Watt nor Tomlin has indicated what will happen if a contract is not agreed to in time. Watt has not spoken publicly since the first practice of training camp July 22.
Typically, Tomlin’s unofficial policy has been that a player who does not practice Friday does not play in a Sunday game. Monday’s practice was something of a “bonus” session; the regular in-season work week schedule is practices Wednesday through Friday.
In the past, players such as Troy Polamalu, Stephon Tuitt and Cortez Allen signed extensions on the eve of the season opener. Each of them, however, practiced fully throughout training camp. Several others – Joe Haden and David DeCastro among them – agreed to deals within a week of the regular season.
The only contract dispute in recent decades that led to missed regular-season games was running back Le’Veon Bell, who sat out the 2018 season after refusing to sign the franchise-tag tender for that year. Bell, though, was not under contract at the time. Barring an extension, Watt is obligated to play 2021 under the terms of his rookie contract that included a $10.09 million option for this season that the Steelers executed in the spring of 2020.
Labor Day traditionally has been viewed as the start of the NFL’s “regular season” practice schedule. In 2017, for example, Bell to much fanfare reported to the team for the first time that day after he had skipped training camp. The following year, Bell’s teammates openly opined they were disappointed in Bell for not showing up that day.
Watt, though, has not missed a single practice among the more than two dozen the Steelers have held since camp opened July 22. He has not been spotted as missing from the field throughout the entirety of camp and the preseason, and Watt regularly has run sprints, done work with other equipment and even repped passrushing drills with team staff or other players who are out of team drills because of injury.
Watt’s extension is expected to value more than $100 million over at least four seasons, making him the NFL’s highest-paid defensive player and highest-paid player in Steelers history. The extent of the guaranteed money is a likely sticking point.
An outside linebacker, Watt has been a finalist for the NFL’s defensive player of the year award each of the past two seasons.
– – –
The Steelers are mourning the loss of Tunch Ilkin, the former offensive lineman and broadcaster, at age 63 to ALS. Peter King:
Tunch Ilkin. I don’t have one story about Ilkin, the former Steelers offensive lineman who died of ALS on Saturday at 62. I have 20. There was about a 12-year span or so, from maybe 2005 to 2018, when I’d have some Steelers question at various times—in training camp, during the season, before the draft, whenever—and I’d think, Gotta call Tunch. What I loved about his answers is they were long, they were on point, and they were honest. He walked the sunny side of the street with the Steelers, because he loved them and broadcasted for them, but he was unvarnished with me, always.
So much about Ilkin was admirable. Born in Istanbul, emigrated to Chicago with his parents at age 2, went to Indiana State at the time of Larry Bird, sixth-round pick of the Steelers, first Turkish player in NFL history, union rep for the Steelers when it wasn’t popular in western Pennsylvania to be a union rep for rich football players, joined the Steelers radio team with Bill Hillgrove and legendary Myron Cope. And this is where I found out about Ilkin the person. Cope was starting to be forgetful on the air around 2004, and you could barely notice the times Ilkin covered for him even though he did, and it was seamless. What a mensch, and what a good football analyst. The game, and everyone who loved the Steelers, will miss him. |
| AFC EAST |
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MIAMI
Two Dolphins, one presumably unvaccinated, head to the COVID list. David Funones of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel:
The Miami Dolphins came back from a weekend off before the start of the regular season and had two players immediately land on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Monday morning.
Starting left tackle Austin Jackson and tight end Adam Shaheen are on the COVID list ahead of the Dolphins’ Week 1 game at the New England Patriots, the team announced.
Vaccinated players can return after two negative tests more than 24 hours apart. Unvaccinated players who test positive are still subject to the 2020 season’s protocols and require a 10-day quarantine. If unvaccinated and a close contact who hasn’t tested positive, the player sits out five days.
Shaheen, who this training camp stated his desire not to get vaccinated is slated to be out for the opener because he tested positive while being unvaccinated, according to NFL Network, meaning a 10-day isolation is in store for him. He missed practices in early August due to contact tracing but didn’t test positive then.
Shaheen had a successful camp otherwise, but the Dolphins still have Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe, Cethan Carter and rookie Hunter Long among available tight ends.
Jackson is not necessarily out for Sunday’s opener in Foxborough. He heads into his second NFL season as a starting left tackle after the Dolphins used a 2020 first-round pick on the USC product.
Greg Little, whom the Dolphins acquired from the Carolina Panthers in a trade during camp, could be in line to start on Sunday if Jackson is unavailable |
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THIS AND THAT |
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CYNTHIA FRELUND
She’s an analytics expert, but we’ve noticed that many of her rankings and predictions tend pretty close to what you’d expect – PATRICK MAHOMES is the best quarterback, etc. Let’s see if there are any surprising truths unveiled in her expectations for each team’s win totals:
Analytics expert Cynthia Frelund took data from the past 10 NFL campaigns to create historical references for personnel, scheme and matchups, identifying factors that are proven to lead to wins (or losses). She vetted the correlations with a bunch of real football people (e.g., coaches) and had her math checked out by real math people (e.g., PhDs) to make sure the model reflected reality as much as possible. Then she compared this season’s personnel, schemes and matchups — with the vetted mathematical weightings — and simulated the season to produce a ceiling, floor and projected win total for all 32 teams. The ceiling-to-floor range is something to home in on — a big discrepancy means the team is projected to play in more close games.
Now, with the addition of a 17th regular-season game, this is the biggest NFL season ever. Inherently, Cynthia ran the most simulations ever: 300,000 runs of every single regular-season game, which equals 81,600,000 total games “played.”
First – the AFC
Wins 12.4
Kansas City Chiefs
PROJECTED AFC WEST CHAMPIONS
Ceiling: 14.6/ Floor: 9.9
FanDuel over/under: 12.5
After an offseason rebuild of the offensive line, Patrick Mahomes forecasts to pace the league in passing yards, earning at least 5,000 yards in 58.7 percent of regular-season simulations. In my models, generally speaking, 58 percent has historically been a great benchmark.
Wins 11.5
Buffalo Bills
PROJECTED AFC EAST CHAMPIONS
Ceiling: 13.3/Floor: 9.2
FanDuel over/under: 11
Teams with a lot of player continuity — and in the Bills’ case, coaching continuity, as they retained both offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier — forecast to start off the season strong. This also adds more certainty to my model’s prolific projections for Josh Allen (more than 4,500 passing yards in 57.9 percent of season simulations) and Stefon Diggs (more than 1,350.5 receiving yards in 59.2 percent of simulations).
Wins 10.9
Cleveland Browns
PROJECTED AFC NORTH CHAMPIONS
Ceiling: 12.6/Floor: 8.9
FanDuel over/under: 10.5
No offensive line has a higher win-share projection than Cleveland’s, but that isn’t the biggest reason why the Browns are projected to jump from third place in 2020 to AFC North champs this year. The real driving force behind this rise: an improved secondary. At the end of 2020, Cleveland’s defensive backs ranked 25th in the NFL in win share. Entering this season, the unit projects to rank fourth. Also, Nick Chubb forecasts to score at least 12 rushing touchdowns in 55.9 percent of simulations.
Wins 10.8
Baltimore Ravens
PROJECTED WILD CARD
Ceiling: 12.9/Floor: 8.5
FanDuel over/under: 11
Injury issues to start the season — most prominently, J.K. Dobbins’ ACL tear — dropped Baltimore’s median win total to 10.8 and added to the range (volatility) between the floor and the ceiling. Thus, Cleveland opens as my model’s AFC North favorite. On the plus side: Don’t sleep on TE Mark Andrews, especially in the end zone, as the fourth-year pro earns more than 7.5 touchdowns in 59.5 percent of simulations.
Wins,9.7
Tennessee Titans
PROJECTED AFC SOUTH CHAMPIONS
Ceiling: 13.1/Floor: 8.5
FanDuel over/under: 9
The addition of Julio Jones creates a higher likelihood of Derrick Henry facing fewer stacked boxes this season, making him the favorite to lead the league in rushing (again). “King Henry” earns at least 1,539.5 rushing yards in 59.9(!) percent of simulations. When Henry isn’t contacted until he has reached his full speed, the 247-pounder earns an average of 2 yards more than the next-closest back.
Wins 9.6
Miami Dolphins
PROJECTED WILD CARD
Ceiling: 11.9/Floor: 7.7
FanDuel over/under: 9.5
There is a bit of a logjam in the win projections between the Dolphins (9.6), Pats (9.4) and Colts (9.3), who all rank between sixth and eighth in the AFC, suggesting one will miss the playoffs. Consequently, the Week 1 matchup between the Dolphins and Patriots looms large right off the bat. While the game is in Foxborough, my simulations have the Fins upsetting the Pats in 56.8 percent of results.
Wins,9.4
New England Patriots
PROJECTED WILD CARD
Ceiling: 11.8/Floor: 7.5
FanDuel over/under: 9.5
When the Patriots released Cam Newton and handed the starting reins to Mac Jones, New England’s win total … didn’t really budge. This is not to say the rookie first-rounder has equal value to the former league MVP from Game 1; rather, the sum of the parts on this team with the clarity of Jones starting didn’t drive a major shift in the win total. However, this did make earlier games in the season less-likely wins and later ones more-likely Ws.
Wins 9.3
Indianapolis Colts
Ceiling: 12.2/Floor: 5.5
FanDuel over/under: 9
The spread between the floor and the ceiling is massive here at nearly seven games. A big part of this volatility? The offensive line — specifically, LG Quenton Nelson and LT Eric Fisher — already being banged up. This leads to Jonathan Taylor not crossing the 1,200-yard mark in 58.9 percent of simulations.
Wins 8.7
Los Angeles Chargers
Ceiling: 11.2/Floor: 6.9
FanDuel over/under: 9.5
How the Chargers start the season will determine if this team will contend for a wild-card spot. L.A. has an early bye in Week 7, but before that, the Bolts face Washington, Dallas, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Cleveland and Baltimore. Brandon Staley’s defensive game plan — specifically, the team’s ability to consistently bring pressure — is a major driver of game outcomes. This offense, with Joe Lombardi at the helm, features Austin Ekeler earning at least six rushing touchdowns in 56.0 percent of projected outcomes.
Wins 8.6
Denver Broncos
Ceiling: 11.3/Floor: 5.9
FanDuel over/under: 8.5
While the Broncos’ projected win share puts them at 10th in the AFC, their potential to make the playoffs ranks seventh-best. Wait, what? Remember: Projections factor in a percentage chance each team wins each game (say, 60/40, for example), but then once a game is won, it turns to 100/0. The Broncos actually have more higher-probability single-game wins than some other potential AFC playoff teams. They also have the second-best odds of starting the season at 3-0 in the entire NFL, with an opening stretch of at Giants, at Jaguars and home vs. Jets.
Wins 8.4
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ceiling: 9.9/Floor: 5.0
FanDuel over/under: 8.5
In 58.5 percent of outcomes, Ben Roethlisberger logs at least 4,000 passing yards. In 56.9 percent of season simulations, rookie Najee Harris scores eight or more rushing touchdowns.
Wins 6.1
Las Vegas Raiders
Ceiling: 7.9/Floor: 2.8
FanDuel over/under: 7
The inability to consistently generate defensive pressure on passing downs combined with the potential for low O-line production creates unfavorable conditions for high-probability success. However, the Raiders’ big-play potential on offense (passes of 20-plus yards, rushes of 10-plus) is higher than last season, when they finished tied for seventh in the NFL with 114.
Wins 5.8
Cincinnati Bengals
Ceiling: 6.8/Floor: 2.1
FanDuel over/under: 6.5
The Bengals have my model’s 28th-ranked offensive line. Not ideal. On the plus side, rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase forecasts to score at least seven receiving touchdowns in 57.0 percent of simulations, while Joe Burrow’s median passing projection (4,403 yards) has him netting the most throwing yards in the AFC North.
Wins 5.5
New York Jets
Ceiling: 6.9/Floor: 2.5
FanDuel over/under: 6
Zach Wilson projects to lead all rookie quarterbacks in passing yards (3,907) and passing touchdowns (23).
Wins 4.9
Jacksonville Jaguars
Ceiling: 6.6/Floor: 2.0
FanDuel over/under: 6.5
No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence forecasts to rush for at least four touchdowns in 57.2 percent of simulations. But as far as total touchdowns go, it’s more likely that Jacksonville’s run game as a whole will be a source of red-zone success, meaning Lawrence’s total touchdown number falls at 28 or fewer in 57.0 percent of simulations. This is not at all a knock on the rookie, but rather a projected roadmap of how scores are most probable to occur, given this team’s composition and Urban Meyer’s past play-calling tendencies.
Wins 3.8
Houston Texans
Ceiling: 5.4/Floor: 1.1
FanDuel over/under: 4
The extreme amount of uncertainty surrounding this team creates a situation where I am avoiding fantasy football roster exposure.
So in the AFC, all but one team’s expected average win total after thousands of simulations with Frelund’s secret formula is within one win of the FanDuel over/under number. That exception is the Jaguars who are 1.6 wins under the FanDuel number of 6.5. Everything else is about what you would expect – no surprising love for the Broncos, Chargers or Colts, no surprising prognosticated failure for the Chiefs or Bills.
Let’s see if the NFC runs south from Tampa Bay to Detroit.
Wins 12.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PROJECTED NFC SOUTH CHAMPIONS
Ceiling: 14.7/Floor: 9.4
FanDuel over/under: 11.5
Unprecedented personnel and coaching continuity, combined with the G.O.A.T. at the most valuable position in team sports, gives Tampa Bay the highest projected win total (12.5) and highest ceiling (14.7) in the entire league. A strong defense — my model’s second-best in preseason win-share rankings as a unit — bolsters the win total, and a median projection of Tom Brady throwing 37-plus regular-season touchdown passes in 55.4 percent of simulations drives that sky-high ceiling.
Wins 10.5
Green Bay Packers
PROJECTED NFC NORTH CHAMPIONS
Ceiling: 14.2/Floor: 7.5
FanDuel over/under: 10.5
No QB makes his offensive line better than Aaron Rodgers. That’s clear over the past five seasons, as measured by a computer-vision-derived formula that takes into account things like scrambling, effectiveness outside of the pocket and pre-snap adjustments. But the absence of left tackle David Bakhtiari for at least the first six weeks of the season sure doesn’t help. Neither does facing the entire NFC West, the strongest division in football. So that helps explain why the Packers’ median projection netted out two full games behind the Buccaneers. But the upside is there, as evidenced by that 14.2-win ceiling, just half a game behind Tampa’s figure.
Wins 10.1
San Francisco 49ers
PROJECTED NFC WEST CHAMPIONS
Ceiling: 11.9/Floor: 6.9
FanDuel over/under: 10.5
Yep, with a clean bill of health in San Francisco, this is my model’s selection for the team that goes from worst to first. George Kittle projects to reach the end zone at least six times in a whopping 59.8 percent of simulations.
Wins 9.9
Los Angeles Rams
PROJECTED WILD CARD
Ceiling: 11.8/Floor: 7.0
FanDuel over/under: 10.5
Changes to the defense, including the coordinator, create some risk in the league’s toughest division. This isn’t to say that Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald — the latter of whom predictably boasts the biggest discrepancy between his projected win share and the next-closest player at his position of anyone in the NFL — won’t be phenomenal, but there are a lot of changes to the supporting cast. It will be fascinating to see how this unit fairs against Tom Brady, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson in Weeks 3-5.
Wins 9.2
Washington Football Team
PROJECTED NFC EAST CHAMPIONS
Ceiling: 12.0/Floor: 7.4
FanDuel over/under: 8.5
Washington has sat atop my NFC East projections since the schedule was released, which would make the Football Team the first back-to-back East winners since Andy Reid’s Eagles took the division in four straight seasons from 2001 through ’04. Do NOT sleep on WR Terry McLaurin, who earns seven or more touchdowns in 59.0 percent of simulations.
Wins 9.1
Arizona Cardinals
PROJECTED WILD CARD
Ceiling: 12.4/Floor: 7.3
FanDuel over/under: 8.5
The Cardinals have a boom-or-bust profile, with quarterback and secondary play both flagging as strongly influential factors. As far as the QB is concerned, Kyler Murray earns at least 34 total touchdowns in 58.7 percent of simulations, which is a very high percentage in this exercise.
Wins 8.9
Dallas Cowboys
PROJECTED WILD CARD
Ceiling: 12.0/Floor: 7.3
FanDuel over/under: 9.5
Hard to find a better wideout trio than Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. While the Cowboys’ receiving corps has the second-highest win share forecasted (behind the Buccaneers’ crew), Dallas is the most likely team to have three receivers with at least 900 yards each. And my model is on board with a Year 2 breakout from Lamb, who projects to lead the team in receiving touchdowns, with seven or more in 58.3 percent of simulations. Cooper earns seven or more just 50.3 percent of the time.
Wins 8.8
Chicago Bears
Ceiling: 11.8/Floor: 6.7
FanDuel over/under: 7.5
The Bears’ offensive line is a significant source of concern, as evidenced by the unit ranking 27th in forecasted win share. Last season, Chicago’s offense tied for the fourth-fewest big plays (passes of 20-plus yards, rushes of 10-plus) in the NFL. This season, that number forecasts to increase dramatically, helping drive Allen Robinson’s forecast of more than 1,075 receiving yards in 57.3 percent of simulations.
Wins 8.7
New Orleans Saints
Ceiling: 10.5/Floor: 5.8
FanDuel over/under: 9
Despite challenging circumstances to start the season in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, the Saints still have realistic preseason odds to make the playoffs (48.9 percent of simulations).
Wins 8.6
Seattle Seahawks
Ceiling: 10.8/Floor: 6.7
FanDuel over/under: 10
The NFC West is the only division with at least a one percent chance of producing four playoff teams. (That figure’s at 2.3 percent for the West, to be exact.) Russell Wilson’s chances to throw at least 34 passing touchdowns? Good. This happens in 57.9 percent of simulations.
Wins 8.4
Carolina Panthers
Ceiling: 10.9/Floor: 6.2
FanDuel over/under: 7.5
The Panthers have sneaky playoff upside. No player forecasts to earn more trips to the end zone this season than Christian McCaffrey, who notches 16 or more scores in 55.5 percent of simulations.
Wins 8.1
Minnesota Vikings
Ceiling: 9.1/Floor: 5.1
FanDuel over/under: 8.5
Justin Jefferson racked up seven receiving touchdowns last season, tied for second among rookies with Gabriel Davis (behind only Chase Claypool, who notched nine). This season, Jefferson earns nine or more in 58.0 percent of simulations and has exceptional odds to pace the league in receptions.
Wins 6.9
Atlanta Falcons
Ceiling: 8.3/Floor: 5.0
FanDuel over/under: 7.5
Wins 6.9
New York Giants
Ceiling: 8.5/Floor: 4.9
FanDuel over/under: 7
Despite questions around New York’s offensive line, my models like Saquon Barkley to earn at least nine rushing touchdowns in 55.4 percent of simulations.
Wins 5.7
Philadelphia Eagles
Ceiling: 7.2/Floor: 4.4
FanDuel over/under: 6.5
Rookie receiver DeVonta Smith forecasts to produce 826 or more receiving yards in 59.7 percent of simulations.
Wins 4.3
Detroit Lions
Ceiling: 5.7/Floor: 1.8
FanDuel over/under: 5
T.J. Hockenson projects to score at least six receiving touchdowns in 60.2 percent of simulations.
No amazing variance from what you or FanDuel might project, but she does see the Bears as 1.3 wins better than the gambling number and Tampa Bay as 1.0 better. Conversely, the Seahawks fall 1.4 wins under FanDuel’s line.
So the biggest “surprise” is Frelund’s analytics have the Panthers in line to win about as many games as the Seahawks. |
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ESPN’S SIMULATION
ESPN’s computer ran 20,000 simulations.
Seth Walder of ESPN.com tells what happened in one of them – and it produced results with some surprises unlike Frelund. 11 teams at the 9-8/8-9 playoff line/
Heading into the 2021 NFL season, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) simulated the entire 285-game slate 20,000 times to create our projections. Having a sample size that large allows us to have the most accurate projections possible, which is, of course, what we want most of the time. But today, we’re only focused on one of them: Simulation No. 13,330.
Combined, those 20,000 simulations — which, in the preseason, use expected starting quarterbacks, past performance, returning starters and projected win totals to generate a strength rating for every team — give us a good idea of what we think will happen, but nothing ever goes to plan. Surprises happen every year, and every team can win on any given Sunday. So we’re running from the safe haven of our projections and looking at just one of the simulations.
We played out every single game of that simulation to give us one plausible outcome for the 2021 season. That means projected winners and losers for every regular-season game, potential division-race storylines, surprise contenders and a look at how the 13 playoff games might play out. From it all, we get a drought-ending Super Bowl LVI winner and a top-five draft order for 2022 that comes with a bit of a shocker.
Will it all happen this way? It could. But again, this is just one single simulation. To put some context on the results, we applied some creative license, detailing potential breakout stars, quarterback controversies and more. Let’s dive in, with 12 big takeaways from how it all went down.
You can read his season commentary here. The results below:
Final simulation regular-season standings
The top four seeds in each conference are the division winners. Seed Nos. 5-7 for each conference make the playoffs via a wild-card berth.
SEED AFC NFC
1 Bills (13-4) Buccaneers (12-5)
2 Colts (13-4) 49ers (12-5)
3 Browns (12-5) Packers (11-6)
4 Chiefs (11-6) Cowboys (10-7)
5 Dolphins (10-7) Saints (11-6)
6 Steelers (9-8) Rams (9-8)
7 Jaguars (9-8) Bears (8-9)
8 Chargers (9-8) Vikings (8-9)
9 Titans (8-9) Eagles (8-9)
10 Patriots (8-9) Washington (8-9)
11 Raiders (8-9) Lions (7-10)
12 Ravens (7-10) Falcons (7-10)
13 Broncos (7-10) Cardinals (6-11)
14 Bengals (6-11) Seahawks (5-12)
15 Texans (5-12) Giants (5-12)
16 Jets (5-12) Panthers (5-12)
Wild-card round:
(AFC) No. 7 Jaguars defeat No. 2 Colts, 23-17
(AFC) No. 3 Browns defeat No. 6 Steelers, 35-30
(AFC) No. 4 Chiefs defeat No. 5 Dolphins, 27-24
(NFC) No. 2 49ers defeat No. 7 Bears, 20-17
(NFC) No. 3 Packers defeat No. 6 Rams, 33-31
(NFC) No. 5 Saints defeat No. 4 Cowboys, 26-14
Divisional round:
(AFC) No. 1 Bills defeat No. 7 Jaguars, 31-14
(AFC) No. 3 Browns defeat No. 4 Chiefs, 20-12
(NFC) No. 1 Buccaneers defeat No. 5 Saints, 28-24
(NFC) No. 3 Packers defeat No. 2 49ers, 28-23
Conference championships:
(AFC) No. 1 Bills defeat No. 3 Browns, 27-13
(NFC) No. 3 Packers defeat No. 1 Buccaneers, 39-26
Bills win Super Bowl LVI
They did it! The Buffalo Bills won their first-ever Super Bowl, capping an incredible season in which they looked like serious contenders from beginning to end. Buffalo finished 13-4 in the regular season, and QB Josh Allen beat out Patrick Mahomes for the league’s MVP award.
Buffalo lost a crazy 45-42 game to the Patriots in Week 13 (Patriots QB Mac Jones’ future is bright!) and then never lost again. In the Super Bowl, Allen opened the game with a touchdown to receiver Stefon Diggs, and running back Devin Singletary ran for two more scores. Cornerback Tre’Davious White jumped an interception with four minutes left in the fourth quarter to seal the deal. Final score: 27-17.
But the most important stat of all? Buffalo-area grocery stores sold out of every folding table in stock, as fans descended on the Orchard Park parking lot the night of the victory, even in the dead of Western New York winter.
Will the Bills win it all in real life? Well, we can’t guarantee that. According to our 20,000 FPI simulations, they have a 9.4% chance of taking home the Lombardi Trophy, the third-best odds in the NFL behind the Chiefs (19.2%) and Buccaneers (14.1%). But no matter what, Buffalo will always have Simulation No. 13,330. |
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