If you are interested in a weekly survivor pool with an element of picking the Super Bowl champion, hit us up with a return email and we will send you an invite ($20 total entry).  It’s the 19^th year for Last Man Standing.

With that as a segue way, we note that the biggest favorite for Week 1 plays on Thursday as the NFL does its usual good job of getting interesting games for Kickoff Weekend.

                        Favorite                                  Underdog

Thu 8:20 PM   KANSAS CITY           -9.0      vs Houston

Sun 1:00 PM   Indianapolis                 -8.0      @ JACKSONVILLE

Sun 1:00 PM   BALTIMORE              -7.5      vs Cleveland

Sun 4:25 PM   SAN FRANCISCO     -7.0      vs Arizona

Sun 1:00 PM   Philadelphia                 -6.5      @ WASHINGTON

Sun 1:00 PM   BUFFALO                   -6.5      vs NY Jets

Sun 1:00 PM   NEW ENGLAND        -6.5      vs Miami

Mon 7:15 PM  Pittsburgh                    -6.0      @ NY GIANTS

Sun 1:00 PM   Las Vegas                   -3.5      @ CAROLINA

Sun 4:05 PM   LA Chargers                -3.5      @ CINCINNATI

Sun 4:25 PM   NEW ORLEANS        -3.5      vs Tampa Bay

Sun 1:00 PM   DETROIT                    -3.0      vs Chicago

Sun 8:20 PM   Dallas                          -3.0      @ LA RAMS

Sun 1:00 PM   MINNESOTA              -2.5      vs Green Bay

Sun 1:00 PM   Seattle                         -2.0      @ ATLANTA

Mn 10:10 PM  Tennessee                  -1.0      @ DENVER

NFC NORTH

GREEN BAY

Rookie RB AJ DILLON starts the season behind RB JAMAAL WILLIAMS, at least on the depth chart.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Packers’ second-round draft pick is on the third string.

Green Bay’s first depth chart of the season lists A.J. Dillon as a co-third team running back, alongside Tyler Ervin and behind both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams.

That’s not a big surprise. Jones was the clear No. 1 after gaining 1,084 yards rushing and 474 yards receiving last year. Williams also contributed a lot during the 2019 season, rushing for 460 yards and adding 253 receiving yards.

Dillon is a powerful runner but doesn’t have great speed and never did much in the passing game in college, and it was a bit of a surprise when the Packers chose him in the second round. They surely want to see him develop as a receiver and in pass protection before they give him a lot of playing time.

The 247-pound Dillon may, however, get some short yardage and goal line work early in the season. It will likely be a small role, but it’s what he did best in college and what made the Packers take him in the second round.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

OL La’EL COLLINS starts the year on IR.  Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com:

The Dallas Cowboys will be without a couple of recognizable names, at least for a little while.

Among the team’s roster moves after the final cutdown was offensive lineman La’el Collins and linebacker Sean Lee headed to injured reserve. Collins is dealing with a hip injury and Lee has a pelvis injury and hadn’t practiced much during training camp.

The Cowboys also placed wide receiver Ventell Bryant on IR, and signed linebackers Joe Thomas and Justin March, and cornerback C.J. Goodwin to fill the empty spots.

The good news for the Cowboys is that with the special 2020 injured reserve rules, those players can return after three weeks.

Even though the absences will be short, they are significant, especially in Collins’ case.

Collins had returned to practice after starting camp on the PUP list, but the Cowboys are being careful with their starting right tackle. Collins famously fell out of the draft in 2015 after he was questioned by police in a shooting death, though he was later cleared of any wrongdoing. Collins has since become a very good tackle for the Cowboys.

Lee is another familiar name, though Dallas isn’t relying on him as much as it is Collins.

Lee’s career has been disrupted by injuries, but the two-time Pro Bowler is still on the Cowboys’ roster.

Lee wasn’t practicing much and Dallas “hopes he can be ready by the start of October,” according to the team’s site. At 34 years old, Lee is a situational player behind Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch, but he’s still a valuable backup when healthy. Lee played all 16 games last season, starting 13.

The Cowboys won’t have a fully healthy roster to start the season. Perhaps it won’t take too deep into the season to get Lee and Collins back.

– – –

Todd Archer of ESPN.com with QB DAK PRESCOTT on the challenges and opportunities of 2020:

Dak Prescott has always seemed ready for the moment as the Dallas Cowboys’ quarterback.

If there ever has been any uncertainty during his time with the Cowboys, he has not shown it. From his first preseason game on Aug. 13, 2016, in front of 89,140 at the Los Angeles Coliseum, to his 64 regular-season starts and three playoff starts since, Prescott has been a picture of calm, even if his mind might have been racing.

But are Prescott and the Cowboys in the midst of a slow breakup, one that’s more about the salary cap changing rather than any personal discontent? It’s a situation that will come to a head after this season, or possibly the next. If Prescott, who will play the 2020 season on the $31.4 million exclusive franchise tag, is worried, he hasn’t said it, coaches can’t tell and teammates don’t notice.

Sunday’s season opener at the Los Angeles Rams (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) will mark Prescott’s fifth year as the Cowboys’ starting quarterback and perhaps the most critical of his career as he looks to forever etch his name into the fabric of a franchise that is turning 60 years old.

“There’s never a doubt in my mind if he’s going to be ready for the season,” Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott said. “He’s going to go out there and perform and lead us the way he is capable of doing. Dak’s a pro. He’s going to be ready.”

While Prescott’s contract, future, level of play and pitchman skills are discussed almost daily on national programs and local talk radio, he is more concerned about what is directly in front of him.

“I seize the moment. I focus on the now,” he said. “I think it’s very important for me to do exactly that and not to be distracted or put too much focus anywhere other than what it is that I’m doing now.”

NEW YORK GIANTS

The Giants have parted ways with armed robber CB DeANDRE BAKER, a 2019 first round pick.

The New York Giants waived DeAndre Baker on Tuesday, severing ties with the troubled cornerback, a first-round pick last year.

Baker is currently on the commissioner’s exempt list as he faces four counts of robbery with a firearm in Florida. His next court date is scheduled for Jan. 21, 2021. If convicted, Baker faces a mandatory minimum of 10 years and up to life in state prison.

The Giants told Baker to stay away from their virtual offseason earlier this year while he attended to his legal problems, and then he was placed on the exempt list before training camp. They had seemingly moved on from the young cornerback after the May 13 incident.

“Obviously, it’s something that’s embarrassing to the organization,” Giants co-owner John Mara said last week.

Logan Ryan brings needed versatility to a depleted Giants secondary

The Giants traded up to get Baker in last year’s draft. General manager Dave Gettleman said last week that there was nothing in Baker’s background that would have suggested these legal troubles would happen.

Gettleman considered the whole situation “disappointing.”

But the Giants traded up for Baker despite at least two teams telling ESPN last spring that there were red flags about him. He then had a rocky rookie year: Two players described Baker as a “handful” last season, and he was benched late in the year after then-coach Pat Shurmur called him out in front of the entire team for a lack of effort.

The Giants still didn’t expect it to come to this.

“The DeAndre Baker thing was just something we did not see coming,” Mara said. “I read some stories saying there were red flags about him, but not in the sense that you would be concerned about criminal conduct at all. Obviously, it’s something that’s embarrassing to the organization. It’s just something that we’re going to have to deal with. It happens from time to time. Fortunately, 99.9% of our players are good citizens. This was one that we just didn’t see coming and it’s something that we’re going to have to deal with.”

Baker, 23, is training in Florida as he awaits trial. The timing of the move is hardly surprising. Gettleman and Mara hinted earlier this week that Baker’s release was on the horizon, in part because Week 1 of the NFL season has arrived.

Baker would have been required to be paid beginning next week had the Giants not released him before Week 1.

PHILADELPHIA

Tim McManus of ESPN.com says the Eagles are QB CARSON WENTZ’s team now:

Off the field has been equally dizzying for Wentz. He and his wife, Maddie, welcomed their first child, a baby girl, in late April. And he has been busy expanding his AO1 Foundation along with his brother, Zach, with the operation extending from the Philadelphia area to North Dakota to Haiti, where through the foundation they have built a sports complex.

After galvanizing a group of young, unheralded skill-position players for a late-season playoff push in 2019, and following the departure of safety Malcolm Jenkins (who is now with the New Orleans Saints) this offseason, Wentz has grown into the team’s primary leader, finally armed with enough experience and clout to stand in the middle of the circle and guide the squad with authority. He does so with broadened shoulders after adding 13 pounds of muscle to his frame this offseason, the benefits of being injury-free and able to hit the weights hard. Not to mention he’s in Year 2 of a four-year contract extension that included $109.9 million guaranteed.

Asked if he feels like he has aged 50 years over his four seasons in Philadelphia given all that has been packed in, Wentz, 27, said, “I’m not sure how to answer that, but yes. No doubt.”

Any naiveté he carried with him from North Dakota to New Jersey has been blasted out of him like a foot through a gas station door. The diversity of the city he has immersed himself in, and the testimonies of so many of his teammates who are hurting, has awakened him to the pain being felt in the Black community, compelling him to use his voice to raise awareness and champion change — actions that have resonated strongly in the Eagles’ locker room.

“He’s embraced it, for sure, because you can definitely see that he’s speaking up a lot more,” Eagles defensive end Brandon Graham said. “You can tell that he’s more confident. … You know who’s the head of the team.”

NFC SOUTH

NEW ORLEANS

Having not spent money on EDGE JADEVEON CLOWNEY,  the Saints are likely to get a deal done with RB ALVIN KAMARA. ESPN.com:

Running back Alvin Kamara and the New Orleans Saints are “extremely close” to a lucrative contract extension, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Tuesday.

The two sides are hoping to finalize a new deal in the next few days that would silence any trade speculation, sources told ESPN.

Kamara on Monday sidestepped questions about his contract talks, insisting that his focus is on Sunday’s season opener against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

He is heading into the final year of his rookie contract, but so far he and the Saints have been unable to bridge the gap regarding a long-term extension.

Kamara, 25, has a total of 2,408 rushing yards, 2,068 receiving yards and 38 touchdowns in three seasons. He has exactly 81 catches in each of his first three seasons — despite missing two games last year and being hampered by knee and ankle injuries over the final half of the season.

– – –

Possibly, this is a sign that QB TAYSOM HILL will play more offensive snaps in the opener than the number three QB.  But maybe not.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Last year, Teddy Bridgewater served as the primary backup to Saints starting quarterback Drew Brees. This year, Taysom Hill has been installed as No. 2 on the team’s depth chart.

Hill has leapfrogged Jameis Winston, the first overall pick in the 2015 draft. Winston signed with the Saints after Bridgewater became Carolina’s new starter.

The Saints gave Hill a two-year deal with $16 million in guaranteed money. The naysayers like to say that Hill has thrown only 13 regular-season passes. The naysayers neglect to notice the impact Hill has when he’s on the field. In New Orleans’ last game, a home playoff loss to the Vikings, Hill arguably was the best player on the field, for either team.

For now, he’s the best quarterback on the Saints not named Drew Brees.

Hill also is the no. 2 kickoff returner, so even as he become a much more important part of the offense, he’ll still have a role on special teams.

TAMPA BAY

This may be homer talk, but sports fans in Tampa Bay have reason to think about the previously impossible thought of all three of the area’s sports teams bringing home a championship trophy in the space of a little over four months.

The NHL Lightning, already in the Final Four, are seven wins from the Stanley Cup.

Baseball’s Rays have the best record in the American League.

And, of course, the reasons for optimism for the Buccaneers are well-known, although this is probably the thinnest of the hopes.

What strikes the DB as especially odd, were it to happen, is that traditionally you have a 50-50 chance in hockey and baseball that the title will be won at home, while the NFL has happened at a neutral site.

In this oddest of years, if MLB goes to a playoff pod system, the hockey and baseball trophies will be won in neutral locations, while the Buccaneers would hoist Lombardi at home.

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

WR DeANDRE HOPKINS has a huge deal. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

When the Texans traded receiver DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals, he had three years left on his existing contract. The Texans traded him in large part because he wanted a new deal.

He finally has gotten one.

Some, including the person who broke the story, are calling it a two-year, $54.5 million extension with a whopping $27.25 million new-money average. Others, including someone who didn’t break the story, are calling it a five-year, $94 million contract, with an $18 million average at signing.

The last year reportedly is voidable, which could make it a one-year, $39.585 million extension. Or, as the case may be, a four-year, $79 million contract. It’s currently unclear what will be needed to cause the final year of the contract to void.

The deal also reportedly includes a no-trade clause and a commitment not to apply the franchise tag to Hopkins.

The difference in the two characterizations of the contracts underscores the inherent differences between the new-money analysis and the analysis of the value of a contract at the time it is signed. No player signs an extension; he signs a new contract that replaces the old one. That’s what Hopkins will do, transferring a three-year commitment into a five-year contract that potentially could become a four-year deal.

So it’s a two-year, $27.25 million extension which pushes the total value to $94 million over five years ($18 million per year) or $79 million over four years ($19.75 million per year).

Ultimately, Hopkins is a Cardinal because the Cardinals did what the Texans wouldn’t do: Rip up the three-year contract and replace it with a new five- or four-year deal.

AFC WEST

LAS VEGAS

QB DEREK CARR starts the year without QB MARCUS MARIOTA looking over his shoulder.  He’s on IR.  Paul Guttierrez of ESPN.com:

The Las Vegas Raiders placed backup quarterback Marcus Mariota on injured reserve Monday with an undisclosed injury. NFL Network reported it was a pectoral injury, which would explain Mariota’s accuracy issues in camp.

Per the NFL’s COVID-19 rules tweaks, Mariota conceivably could return to Las Vegas’ 53-man active roster in three weeks.

With Mariota sidelined, the Raiders signed DeShone Kizer to their practice squad after he spent last season on the team’s 53-man roster but never played in a game. In fact, Kizer was active for three games late in the season before being demoted to No. 3 behind Mike Glennon for the season finale. He never appeared in a game.

The Raiders enter Sunday’s season opener at the Carolina Panthers with Nathan Peterman as Derek Carr’s backup. Peterman recently restructured his contract, going from a non-guaranteed one-year, $2.133 million deal to a guaranteed one year, $1 million contract.

It has been a disappointing start to Mariota’s Raiders career following five seasons with the Tennessee Titans. After recovering from ankle and shoulder injuries this summer, Mariota had a hard time locating his passes in camp.

A source told ESPN that the previous maladies were not an issue and that Mariota should return soon. He was not on the practice field on Monday, the first practice the Raiders held with their 53-man roster and practice squad.

Mariota, 26, signed a two-year, $17.6 million free-agent contract with the Raiders in March with a base salary of $7.5 million for 2020 fully guaranteed. Not quite starter money, but big money for a backup.

The 2014 Heisman Trophy winner was expected to push Carr in camp and while his running ability was on full display and Raiders coach Jon Gruden called him a “dazzling playmaker with his feet,” Mariota could never truly get his arm going.

In other moves, the Raiders also placed rookie linebacker Tanner Muse on IR and re-signed linebacker Kyle Wilber and offensive tackle Sam Young.

The Raiders have had a tough offseason in regards to money. Besides the $7.5 million guaranteed Mariota, they paid safety Damarious Randall a guaranteed $1.5 million before cutting him and also paid third-round draft pick Lynn Bowden, Jr. his $985,000 signing bonus before trading him to the Miami Dolphins.

Two of the Raiders’ top seven figures in terms of cap numbers are on IR in Mariota ($9.125 million) and wide receiver Tyrell Williams ($11.1 million).

Las Vegas’ other top seven cap numbers for 2020 are Carr, right tackle Trent Brown ($21.5 million each), linebacker Cory Littleton ($11.75 million), right guard Gabe Jackson ($9.6 million) and safety/slot cornerback Lamarcus Joyner ($9.2 million), per ESPN Stats & Information.

AFC NORTH

CINCINNATI

He’s not acting like rookie.  Ben Baby of ESPN.com on QB JOE BURROW:

Months before the Cincinnati Bengals made the first selection in April’s NFL draft, all the chatter centered on one person: Joe Burrow.

From the time the Bengals clinched the top draft pick in December to now, the former LSU quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner has dominated conversation as the Bengals try to get over last year’s 2-14 season and continue a rebuild accelerated by Burrow’s selection.

On Aug. 30, Bengals coach Zac Taylor effectively named Burrow the starting quarterback for the Week 1 game against the Los Angeles Chargers. It was hardly a shock considering Burrow took every first-team rep during training camp.

Over the past month, Burrow has been the talk of the team. Here’s what people are saying about him on the verge of his NFL debut.

The confidence

Burrow’s belief in himself has been referenced often during camp.

Wide receiver Auden Tate: “How he approaches the huddle, how he comes into the huddle, he doesn’t come in like a rookie. He comes in almost like a vet, like he’s been there before.”

Running back Joe Mixon: “To me, to be honest, I think what popped off the most about Joe Burrow is his leadership and how he takes the huddle. He’s a very confident guy. He goes about things so professionally. I think he does a great job leading. He’s stepped in — that’s what we needed — and I believe he will be able to get the job done at a high level.”

Running back Giovani Bernard: “I wasn’t a big college football guy. I didn’t really watch too much, but the word around town was that he was one of those guys that really did a great job of leading his players. He’s doing that exact same thing here. A lot of guys are following his lead.”

The communication

Burrow spent the bulk of the offseason working on his on-field communication skills, specifically in the huddle and during the pre-snap cadence at the line of scrimmage. The work appears to be paying off.

Tight end C.J. Uzomah: “He’s an absolute beast. He’s an animal out there. You see college. You see what’s going on, you watch him beat your alma mater [Auburn] and do so in convincing fashion and you’re like, ‘Dang, this sucks,’ but he’s that guy. He’s making all the right reads. He’s getting us in and out of all the right protections and making all the right checks and certain checks I didn’t even know we were allowed to check into. He’s like, ‘Why not? Go out there and do this. Come in here and do this.’ It’s been a lot of fun, honestly.”

Left tackle Jonah Williams: “If he wants to change something about the protection, if we’re saying, ‘What are you comfortable with doing?’ or ‘What responsibilities do you want us to control as O-line and what are you more comfortable with to give you a little bit more confidence when you’re sitting back in the pocket?’ So I think that’s been great. Some guys wouldn’t want to speak up like that. They wouldn’t want to give suggestions to a bunch of veteran O-linemen. But he does it in a way that we all respect it and appreciate his input.”

Left guard Michael Jordan: “I just remember guys like [former teammate] Pat Elflein, [former Ohio State coach Urban] Meyer, constantly yelling at Joe to be more demonstrative when calling the cadence, and now everything is crystal clear. He’s getting our guys on defense to jump offside with hard counts, and I love it.”

AFC SOUTH

JACKSONVILLE

RB DEVONTA FREEMAN is still “out there” as he visited Jacksonville and left without a new contract.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

The Dolphins have stashed WR ANTONIO CALLAWAY on their practice squad. Jelani Scott of NFL.com:

Antonio Callaway has earned a chance to resurrect his NFL career.

The Florida native is returning home after agreeing to sign with the Dolphins practice squad, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Sunday. He added that Callaway is suspended for the first seven games of the 2020 season, but can still attend meetings and do his injury rehab.

In response to the news, Calloway’s agent Malki Kawa told Rapoport, “I’m so proud of the work Antonio has done in the last several months to put himself in this position with a second chance with his hometown team.”

Miami brought Calloway in for a workout on Friday, per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. Sunday’s development bodes well for Calloway’s road back to league.

Drafted in the fourth round by the Browns in 2018, the former Florida Gator impressed his rookie season, playing in all 16 games (11 starts) and registering 43 receptions for 586 yards and five TDs.

Calloway’s second season in Cleveland proved disastorous as the promising wideout missed the first four games after violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. He was activated prior to Week 5 and, after playing in four games, was released on Nov. 14 after showing up late to meetings and practice. Calloway was facing a 10-game suspension at the time of his release, which he unsuccessfully tried to appeal.

NEW ENGLAND

More from QB CAM NEWTON on his bromance with Bill Belichick.  LarryBrownSports.com:

In an appearance on WEEI’s “The Greg Hill Show” Monday morning, Newton admitted he was a bit uneasy about the idea of playing for Belichick. However, he quickly realized the two are a “match made in heaven.”

“I didn’t know what to expect. Just the same questions that a lot of people and talk shows, gossip talk, barber shop talk, chit-chatter, text messages — they wanted to know, I wanted to know as well,” Newton said. “I wanted to know is it real what they say about Belichick? Just, I didn’t know.

“Honestly, it’s been a match made in heaven for me just knowing I am at a place where everything is pulling in the same direction and everything is geared towards winning.”

Newton said any previous opinions he had about Belichick changed the first time he had a conversation with the future Hall of Famer.

“I think every type of stereotype that I had about Coach Belichick changed the day I talked to him,” Newton added. “You look at the players he’s had over the years — obviously the Brady’s, the Randy Moss’, the Corey Dillon’s, the Lawrence Taylor’s, and the list goes on, Tedy Bruschi, it’s no wonder why he’s sustained success over the years.

“If he was able to accomplish those things with those players, it made a lot of sense. The time when I spoke to him and obviously meeting with him face-to-face, it removed any type of doubt, if I even had any. It’s just exciting to play for a person like that.”

The only thing that will matter is the results, but the feeling appears to be mutual. Belichick has had nothing but positive things to say about Newton throughout the offseason. Newton has been named the starter for Week 1, though Belichick will not admit that publicly.

Most of the NFL has given up on Newton because of his injury history. Health will still be the biggest question mark, but he has a tremendous opportunity to revive his career in New England. Even if there are times when he becomes frustrated with Belichick’s style, Newton knows this is his best chance to prove he can still be an elite starter.

THIS AND THAT

BREAKOUT PLAYERS

From Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com:

At this point last year, Lamar Jackson was an unproven passer, Shaq Barrett was an afterthought signing by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Darren Waller was a guy on “Hard Knocks” with a good story.

Breakouts can come from many different sources. Jackson won MVP for the Baltimore Ravens, Barrett came out of nowhere to lead the NFL in sacks and Waller had a 1,000-yard season at tight end for the Raiders. Those are just three of many big seasons from players who were not highly thought of (or thought about at all) last August.

We have no idea where the breakouts will come from, but it’s fun to guess. Here is the top breakout candidate for each team:

Baltimore Ravens: RB J.K. Dobbins

The team that set the NFL record for rushing yards in a season drafted a running back in the second round. That should get your attention. Dobbins was a highly productive back at Ohio State, rushing for 2,003 yards and 21 touchdowns with a 6.7-yard average last season. Mark Ingram is the starter, but if Ingram slips or gets hurt, Dobbins is going to do very well in an offense that is perfect for a running back to pile up yards.

Buffalo Bills: TE Dawson Knox

Maybe this is a year early on Knox. He was a great athlete who needed a lot of work at tight end. But in 2019 the Bills did trade up to draft him in the third round, and are happy with the improvements he has made on his game in year two. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll praised Knox’s progress, saying “Dawson has done a really good job.”

“He’s a young player still, really young,” Daboll said. “Hopefully we get more out of him this year. I know he’s working hard to do that.” Knox put up a reasonable 28-388-2 line as a rookie and could go way beyond that this season.

Cincinnati Bengals: OT Jonah Williams

Assuming Williams is healthy, it’s like the Bengals add an extra first-round pick this year. Williams, the 11th pick of the 2019 draft, missed his rookie season due to a torn labrum in his shoulder. There’s a reason he was picked that high, and he’ll help Joe Burrow’s transition to the NFL.

Cleveland Browns: LB Sione Takitaki

The Browns have a lot riding on Takitaki. They let Christian Kirksey and Joe Schobert leave in free agency. Then promising second-year linebacker Mack Wilson suffered an injury in training camp this week. Takitaki played just 105 defensive snaps last season, but he was a third-round pick and will have all the opportunity he can handle.

Denver Broncos: WR K.J. Hamler

The Broncos have Courtland Sutton and 2019 and 2020 first-round picks Noah Fant and Jerry Jeudy to catch passes from Drew Lock. But don’t forget about Hamler. He can be a big-play threat down the field, unlike most slot receivers. Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams, a good all-around receiver who works out of the slot, might be a good comparison. With other targets to take defensive attention away, Hamler should have a lot of room to run.

Houston Texans: CB Gareon Conley

The Texans took some shots on former first-round picks at cornerback, and may have hit on Conley. He never played up to his first-round status with the Raiders, but finished last season well after being traded to Houston. Conley just turned 25 years old and could establish his career this season.

Indianapolis Colts: WR Parris Campbell

There are no shortage of positive stories out of NFL camps in August, but Campbell is getting praise and it seems legit. Campbell was a second-round pick last season who struggled with injuries, but better health could unlock a nice second season.

“He really looks good,” Colts coach Frank Reich said. “You know, we’ve got a long way to go until the season, but right now, I mean, he looks fast, he looks strong and he’s poised and a very smart player.”

Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Laviska Shenault Jr.

If you want an idea what the Jaguars think they have with Shenault, check out what receivers coach Keenan McCardell had to say about him. “I see a lot of power — strong runner after the catch. You know, he reminds me a little bit of Anquan Boldin after the catch, the way he gets in and out, the way he breaks his tackles, on film I saw that,” McCardell said. “Now, being up close with him, he has that power of Andre Johnson.”

Talent wasn’t the problem for Shenault at Colorado. Health was. If he can stay healthy, he could be a breakout for a Jaguars team that needs an infusion of young talent.

Kansas City Chiefs: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Honestly, there wasn’t a great pick because the Chiefs are loaded and bring just about everyone back. It will be no surprise if Edwards-Helaire, the team’s first-round pick, has a big year, but most of this roster is established stars or solid starters.

Las Vegas Raiders: DE Clelin Ferrell

Ferrell was a controversial selection as the third pick of last year’s draft. Most thought the Raiders reached. Ferrell didn’t prove critics wrong in a quiet rookie season, though he played through a stomach illness that caused him to lose 15 pounds. Ferrell did have a 2.5-sack game against the Chargers, and he might be in line for more big games in year two.

Los Angeles Chargers: LB Drue Tranquill

Tranquill might have to split time to start the season, but he showed a lot as a rookie. The fourth-round pick had 61 solo tackles despite starting just three games and playing just 39.1 percent of the defensive snaps. If he finds a full-time role, he can emerge.

Miami Dolphins: RB Matt Breida

I will not give up on the dream of Breida being a 1,000-yard back before he’s done. Jordan Howard is in Miami too but he’s limited. We have seen flashes of brilliance from Breida, who might be the NFL’s fastest back. The Dolphins traded a fifth-round pick to the San Francisco 49ers to get him. He’ll have to stay healthy, and that’s been his biggest problem, but he has the talent to break out.

New England Patriots: WR N’Keal Harry

All you have to do is look at fantasy football average draft position to know everyone has given up on Harry. But he’s the only outside receiver on the Patriots who has the ceiling as a true No. 1. Harry was a first-round pick last year and injuries held him back. It’s also tough to master the Patriots’ offense. There’s no reason he won’t get a ton of playing time and targets this year.

New York Jets: TE Chris Herndon

Herndon was a popular sleeper pick last year. Then there was a suspension and an injury, and he played just one game all last season. But he’s just 24 and the same talented player who put up 502 yards as a rookie. The Jets don’t have a ton at receiver to hog targets, so Herndon’s breakout could come a year late.

Pittsburgh Steelers: WR Diontae Johnson

If you’ve had a fantasy football draft already you know this breakout is being predicted by everyone. Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception metrics say Johnson was better than you think as a rookie, and he was still pretty good. Johnson posted 59-680-5 as a rookie despite gruesome quarterback play. The Antonio Brown clone could be in for a big season with Ben Roethlisberger.

Tennessee Titans: OLB Harold Landry

It could be argued that Landry had his breakout last season with nine sacks. But it seems there’s more coming in his third season. Landry didn’t get a sack in the Titans’ final four games. Had he finished strong, he might have made his first Pro Bowl. Last season was Landry’s first as a full-time starter and he might have worn down late. If he can avoid that this season, he should get double-digit sacks.

NFC

Arizona Cardinals: CB Byron Murphy

Murphy had a tough job last season. He was a rookie playing opposite Patrick Peterson, which means he had a target on his back (he also had to be Arizona’s No. 1 cornerback when Peterson was suspended for six weeks). Murphy was up and down last season, but he does have talent. With Robert Alford likely out for the season with a pectoral injury, Murphy will shift back outside instead of being the primary slot corner. The Cardinals need him to take a step forward.

Atlanta Falcons: TE Hayden Hurst

Hurst was a first-round pick of the Baltimore Ravens, but was quickly passed by Mark Andrews from the same draft class. The Falcons lost Austin Hooper in free agency, so they traded second- and fifth-round picks for Hurst. That shows Atlanta believes in Hurst’s talent. The Falcons will probably pass a lot this season, and Matt Ryan threw to Hooper often, so it seems like a good bet that Hurst doubles his career yardage, which is 512.

Carolina Panthers: DE Stephen Weatherly

The Panthers spent significant money on three free agents: quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, receiver Robby Anderson and Weatherly. Considering Weatherly started only seven games in four years with the Minnesota Vikings, and six of those starts came in 2018, it’s a gamble by Carolina that Weatherly can do more with a full-time role.

Chicago Bears: WR Anthony Miller

Miller has played well in stretches. He had seven touchdowns as a rookie, and then had 431 yards in a five-game stretch late last season. Consistent production is the last piece of the puzzle. The Bears will be thrilled if the 2018 second-round pick puts it all together and posts a 1,000-yard season.

Dallas Cowboys: TE Blake Jarwin

Jason Witten is great, but you can question the 2019 Cowboys’ coaching staff for giving Witten a majority of the snaps while promising Jarwin played just 39 percent of the time. In that limited playing time, Jarwin put up a 31-365-3 line. Witten is gone, the Cowboys will have a high-scoring offense and Jarwin could end up as a top-10 tight end by season’s end.

Detroit Lions: CB Jeff Okudah

Strangely, there aren’t a lot of breakout candidates for the Lions. Most of the players who are going to play significant roles are either established veterans or don’t have a great upside. Picking Okudah, the third selection in this year’s draft, seems too easy, but he can be a star right away. He is as clean of a cornerback prospect as we’ve seen in years, and should be an impact player right away.

Green Bay Packers: S Darnell Savage

The 2019 first-round pick was good for a rookie, but he could be a Pro Bowl contender in Year 2. He injured his ankle early last season and played through it — doing “a pretty good job with it being my first injury that I actually had to play with,” he said — but it probably limited him most of the year. He is a big-play threat who can line up anywhere, and he could be a big difference maker this season.

Los Angeles Rams: RB Darrell Henderson

A year ago, Henderson was the hot name. Questions about Todd Gurley and Henderson’s status as a third-round pick made him a popular breakout pick. Then Henderson struggled as a rookie and the Rams drafted Cam Akers. But don’t forget about Henderson. Sean McVay has said all of his backs will play. Henderson was highly productive in college and can still take the lessons learned from last season and perhaps keep the rookie Akers from taking over a big role.

Minnesota Vikings: TE Irv Smith Jr.

There are a lot of intriguing tight ends this season. Smith had 36 catches for 311 yards and two touchdowns, which was pretty good considering Kyle Rudolph is Minnesota’s starter. Smith is a good route runner and with Stefon Diggs no longer in the offense, there will be more targets for him.  “I think there’s a big, big upside here,” Vikings offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak said about Smith, according to the Pioneer Press.

New Orleans Saints: S C.J. Gardner-Johnson

Gardner-Johnson, who said he’s changing his name to Ceedy Duce, was a fourth-round pick last season and made plays down the stretch as a rookie. He can play multiple roles, including slot corner, and playing time should open up with Vonn Bell moving on in free agency. The Saints can get creative with him.

New York Giants: WR Darius Slayton

Slayton, a fifth-round pick out of Auburn, was a nice surprise last season. He caught eight touchdowns and averaged 15.4 yards per catch. Two games accounted for 275 of his 740 yards, and it’s not easy to count on huge games like that, but it’s possible Slayton could emerge as Daniel Jones’ No. 1 receiver of the present and future in his second season.

Philadelphia Eagles: OT Andre Dillard

The Eagles had enough confidence in Dillard, last year’s first-round pick, to move on from future Hall of Famer Jason Peters at left tackle. When Peters was re-signed later in the offseason, the team announced he’d be playing guard. Dillard started just four games as a rookie, but the coaches are happy with his increased strength and his athleticism should allow him to be an above-average left tackle for a long time.

San Francisco 49ers: WR Kendrick Bourne

With some injuries to 49ers receivers, rookie first-round pick Brandon Aiyuk is the de facto No. 1 receiver. But it’s tough to depend on rookies, and Bourne is getting good reviews in camp. He hasn’t had a huge role in the offense but does have nine touchdowns in the past two seasons.

“He’s almost the vet in the room right now, which is somewhat funny to us, because four years ago, he wasn’t close to that,” Kyle Shanahan said via NBC Sports Bay Area. “It’s been pretty cool to watch how he’s come this far, and we’re just getting started at camp, but know [that] some of the guys look up to him.  “Bourne has gotten better each year. He knows the offense real well. He’s played all the positions and the same guy today as he was the first day he got here, as least as a person.”

Seattle Seahawks: TE Will Dissly

The Seahawks signed Greg Olsen, which could cut down on Dissly’s opportunities. But if Dissly is healthy, maybe Olsen isn’t needed. Dissly was playing very well before tearing his Achilles last season. Through five games last season, his 16-game pace was 74-838-13. He got hurt early in the sixth game. You can’t assume Dissly is 100 percent this season, and Olsen is going to get snaps no matter what. However, if Dissly can pick up anywhere close to where he left off, the Seahawks have their tight end of the future.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CB Carlton Davis

Davis, a 2018 second-round pick, isn’t yet a household name. But Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians believes Davis is a top-10 cornerback already. “I think Carlton made that move,” Arians said late last season, according to AL.com. “What he did to DeAndre Hopkins was outstanding. He basically just shut him out of the game, and that’s not an easy job. He did a really good job on Julio [Jones]. He realized Julio’s a little stronger.

“But the penalties have gone. He’s one of the top-10 guys, in my opinion, right now.”

Davis has just one interception in two seasons. If he can boost that total, it will lead to more attention and perhaps more widespread acclaim as one of the NFL’s best.

Washington Football Team: WR Terry McLaurin

McLaurin’s rookie season was very good. This wouldn’t a breakout with a bit player becoming a good starter. With McLaurin, the breakout could be from promising young player to one of the NFL’s best. McLaurin was a standout in a bad offense last season. He was Pro Football Focus’ fifth best receiver last season among all receivers with at least 90 targets, ranking ahead of Mike Evans, Davante Adams and Amari Cooper. Washington has practically nobody else to steal targets from McLaurin, might not have much of a run game and will be in catchup mode plenty this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see McLaurin take a leap to being a 100-catch receiver and be recognized as one of the NFL’s bright stars by the end of the season.

FANTASY ADVICE

Eric Karabell of ESPN.com offers some players you should let others in your Fantasy league draft:

Tight end Rob Gronkowski, a future Hall of Famer, used to find his way onto this annual fantasy football “Do Not Draft” list because fantasy managers were a bit too eager to secure him to their teams, thinking that having the best player at a position meant everything. It surely did not. Indeed, Gronkowski used to be a fantastic, genuine talent, finishing as the No. 1 fantasy option at tight end four times, a truly dominant force when his body cooperated, handling a large target share, scoring myriad touchdowns and contributing to Super Bowl titles.

Things are hardly the same now. Gronkowski, now 31, was an ordinary, inefficient performer on the field in 2018, his body battered from years of heavy workloads and physical play — and it’s doubtful he simply sat on his couch, recuperating his body during his year off in 2019. Hey, it’s quite a story as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reunite this talent with their new quarterback, Tom Brady, aiming to rekindle a successful Patriots partnership from the past, but fantasy managers have to see through this.

Gronkowski as a later-round choice, someone fantasy managers hope to catch the proverbial lightning in a bottle with, makes reasonable sense to me. However, that is not happening! He is going as a sixth-round choice in ESPN average live drafts, at this stage of his career and in this offense. And to that I say, good luck with that!

– – –

In a football sense, Gronkowski is neither young nor durable. He missed half of two of his previous six seasons, and quite a few other games in between, including three in his final season in New England. By Week 3, fantasy investors might not even get proper clarity on his updated health status before that Sunday morning on whether he is suiting up. Rostering Gronkowski in fantasy, in the latter seasons, meant using valuable bench space on another tight end on your roster, and that is surely the case in 2020. The Buccaneers want Gronkowski mostly for January’s playoffs.

Meanwhile, never during Brady’s tenure did his most electrifying target have to battle a wide receiver duo like Chris Godwin and Mike Evans for targets. I believe Brady will be statistically excellent this season, and I like his value. Gronkowski used to boast a healthy target share, one this Tampa Bay offense simply cannot and should not regenerate. Why would it? They have the best wide receiver tandem, and oh, by the way, other tight ends (O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate) and running backs who catch passes, too.

As a result, sans the targets and the likelihood of a full campaign of games, Gronkowski seems unlikely to both provide TE1 numbers on a rate and volume basis. Gloss over the fact coach Bruce Arians has never featured tight ends in an offense and sure struggled to do so last season, but the weaponry at Brady’s disposal is vast, so he does not need to. As it was, the Buccaneers were not among the top 10 in wide receiver targets with a quarterback who threw the ball so much, it was as if this was his ultimate goal. Brady is not going to throw as much as Jameis Winston, to his teammates or the opponent.

Ultimately, securing Gronkowski as your starting tight end is a risk, but the main issue is one needs to secure him in the first 10 rounds. Thanks to name value and dreams of another 1,000-yard season with double-digit touchdowns, he is somehow going ahead of Evan Engram, Tyler Higbee and Hunter Henry, each younger, faster and, well, I will leave out the part about durability here to protect myself. Still, Gronk is well outside my top 10 tight ends for good reasons, so use your sixth- or seventh-round selections on safer flex choices.

Here is a starting fantasy roster of others who, for various reasons, deserve placement on this analyst’s “Do Not Draft” list:

Quarterback

Rushing certainly matters when it comes to quarterbacks, but rushing touchdowns are difficult, if not impossible, to repeat. Just ask the old Cam Newton. Even with an upgrade in receiving options, Bills starter Josh Allen is an average passer at best, and someone unlikely to return top-10 quarterback value. I lean on rushing quarterbacks in later rounds, but again, that is not where Allen is going.

Other QBs to avoid: Aaron Rodgers, Packers; Ryan Tannehill, Titans; Baker Mayfield, Browns.

Running back

Start with new Falcons savior Todd Gurley coming back to Georgia and go from there. Myriad leg issues limited Gurley in his final Rams season, and arthritis in his knee will continue to hold him back. Nobody denies how great Gurley was during 2017 and 2018, and few found the end zone better than he did in 2019, but the Falcons will soon realize they must monitor his touches closely, mostly with receptions. The touchdowns should regress. He is a flex option, not a safe RB2 deserving of a third-round choice.

For Baltimore’s Mark Ingram, volume is likely to be a similar problem. He is older than Gurley and healthier, but fantasy managers run into problems when they assume touchdown totals carry over from year to year. Ingram scored 15 touchdowns last season. How awesome! Efficiency will surely drop from this remarkable level, he is not a pass-catcher and the team drafted his replacement. But other than those things, all is well. There are starters and rookies going later with far greater upside, even in Round 7.

With new Texans starter David Johnson, I guess I simply do not see what others do. Sure, this is someone with little competition for touches, but Johnson was so subpar last season in Arizona, struggling to stay healthy, indecisive on rushing attempts and in the open field and unable to break tackles. He is four seasons from his greatness, and rare is the running back who returns to prior levels of awesomeness. Really, that was 2016! Move on! I think David Johnson and the unrelated but similar Duke Johnson share the receptions and nobody in this backfield runs the football with effectiveness. Good luck, Deshaun Watson.

Other RBs to avoid: Le’Veon Bell, Jets; Ronald Jones, Buccaneers; Phillip Lindsay, Broncos; Sony Michel, Patriots.

Wide receiver

I actually like the value for most of the generally accepted top 25 or so wide receivers in fantasy this season. The position is so deep and, well, there are enough proven players for all. Still, in the middle rounds, there are issues. Not to pick on the Buffalo passing game, but Stefon Diggs in Round 7, when fantasy managers might still be acquiring expected starters, is a problem. This is not all about Josh Allen, and Buffalo actually threw more than Minnesota did last season, but there is no statistical ceiling here. Diggs was barely a WR3 in an efficient offense last season, and John Brown is the deep threat for Diggs’ new team.

Durability is the main reason the once-electric A.J. Green makes the list, because he not only missed all the games last season, but he missed six or more games in two of the three prior ones. I like the new Cincinnati offense and star rookie quarterback Joe Burrow, but how can we presume Green’s ankle injuries are no longer a problem as he turns 32? There is upside for the games he plays, but like others on this list, name value hardly jibes with the reality, and Round 7 has better choices. Give me all the shares of his teammate Tyler Boyd.

Deebo Samuel had a nice if inconsistent rookie season, and I see good things for his future, but the problem in 2020 is he had surgery for a Jones fracture in his left foot in June. The 49ers seem resigned to the fact he will not be ready for Week 1 of the regular season, and that alone is telling. Be realistic! This is a significant foot injury. Samuel as a 10th-round selection in ESPN ADP is not awful, because it is the second half of the draft and the time to take risks, but fantasy managers are rarely patient in waiting for players when they need bench spots.

Other WRs to avoid: Will Fuller, Texans; Sterling Shepard, Giants; Sammy Watkins, Chiefs; Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson, Eagles; Antonio Brown, free agent.

Tight end

Gronkowski seems like plenty for this position, but let us throw in Jared Cook of the Saints as well. Yes, he was a top-10 tight end last season, but only because of the nine touchdown catches and, well, that seems unlikely to continue since he had nine in the previous four seasons combined. Fantasy managers should target volume receivers, not the ones who “score touchdowns” as if that is some special, teachable and repeatable skill. At 33, Cook, who caught only 43 passes, might hold off rookie Adam Trautman for the entire season, but the Dayton product has size, speed and athleticism, so Cook might not.