2021 DRAFT
Two rounds of Mock Draft greatness from the legendary Mel Kiper, Jr. (he has explanations for his 2nd rounders, which we are deleting for space, at ESPN.com):
The 2021 NFL draft is quickly approaching, and most of the pro days are over. Teams are starting to lock in their rankings. That means it’s time for an updated mock draft with everything I’m hearing two weeks out from Round 1 on April 29.
I’m expanding this projection to the first two rounds and making predictions for Picks 1-64. That means I’ll hit 31 teams this time, with the Seahawks and Rams both missing their first-round pick due to trades. The Texans are the lone team that doesn’t have a pick in Rounds 1 or 2.
I have two more trades in this mock draft, one for a team that desperately needs its franchise quarterback and another to get one of the best prospects I’ve ever graded at his position. You might be surprised.
I’m still tinkering with my Big Board and position rankings, and my final update will come out just before the start of the draft. My pal Todd McShay just made a big update to his rankings as well.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
With a depleted roster and in the beginning stages of a rebuild, new Jaguars coach Urban Meyer and general manager Trent Baalke have a chance to start fresh, take one of my highest-graded quarterbacks ever and build around him. The Jaguars have three more picks in the top 45 — at Nos. 25, 33 and 45 — to plug other holes, and they need to hit on those. Lawrence is a no-brainer as the top signal-caller in this class.
2. New York Jets
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
I said last month that I was 50-50 on whether the Jets should keep Sam Darnold or take a quarterback here, and general manager Joe Douglas and coach Robert Saleh made their decision last week. Darnold is off to Carolina, and so this pick is clearly going to be a quarterback. I have Ohio State’s Justin Fields just ahead of Wilson in my rankings, but Wilson is the name I’ve consistently heard for New York. He can be a star with the right talent around him, but the Jets have to add another pass-catcher at some point, even after adding Corey Davis and Keelan Cole Sr. in free agency.
3. San Francisco 49ers (via MIA through HOU)
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
It’s hard to ignore the Jones-to-San Francisco buzz within the league. Every sign two weeks out from the draft points to general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan being infatuated with Jones. I think he’s the quarterback they traded up nine spots to take. Is he the perfect fit for Shanahan’s offense? Only time will tell. Jones is my fourth-ranked quarterback and is No. 12 on my Big Board, and I’m not sure I see a superstar when I watch him on tape. He’s solid — and extremely accurate — but not spectacular. Lynch and Shanahan are obviously taking the long view here, and this decision is going to be discussed and debated for years.
Projected trade: Miami moves up … but not for a QB
We know the Falcons have talked to other teams about moving out of the No. 4 spot, and they could be open to the highest bidder. There’s a catch, though; they surely don’t want to move too far down, or else they’ll miss on their guy. So this trade allows them to add assets and still pick at No. 6.
I don’t think it would cost the Dolphins a first-round pick in 2022, but it’s tough to predict without knowing who else is bidding. For this exercise, I think it could take something like a second- and third-round pick next year for Miami to move up two spots. (The Dolphins have an extra third-rounder in 2022 from the 49ers.)
Why would the Dolphins move up two spots? To ensure that they get their guy, and to ensure that another team doesn’t trade into that spot to take that guy. Cincinnati at No. 5 could also take the prospect the Dolphins want.
4. Miami Dolphins (via mock trade with ATL through PHI)
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
You didn’t see this one coming, did you? All along we’ve talked about the Dolphins adding weapons for Tua Tagovailoa, and Pitts is the ultimate weapon in this class. Why couldn’t they take him? This gives Miami four really good pass-catchers around Tagovailoa in Pitts, Will Fuller V, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki. Pitts and Gesicki are versatile enough to play inline or out wide. They’re matchup nightmares for defenses. Another thing to note: Several teams have Pitts at No. 2 overall on their boards. Miami also gets to keep its pick at No. 18 to get help on defense.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
This was the toughest call for me. It came down to Sewell and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who knows Joe Burrow well from their time together at LSU and would be an excellent fit next to Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Ultimately, the Bengals’ offensive line was such a disaster that I don’t think they can pass on Sewell, who should start immediately at one of the tackle spots opposite Jonah Williams. The good thing for Cincinnati is that tackle and wideout are two of the deepest positions in this class, and it should be able to find a starter at those positions at the top of Round 2.
6. Atlanta Falcons (via mock trade with MIA)
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
So new general manager Terry Fontenot and coach Arthur Smith move down two spots, add extra assets for a rebuilding team and still get a franchise quarterback. The 20-year-old Lance is green — he started just 17 games in college, all against FCS competition. The Falcons can let him sit behind Matt Ryan for at least a season. And here’s a list Lance will join (courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information): Since the 2006 draft, six quarterbacks with fewer than 20 college starts have been taken in the first round: Mitchell Trubisky (13), Cam Newton (14), Dwayne Haskins Jr. (14), Mark Sanchez (16), Kyler Murray (17) and Ryan Tannehill (19). There is some risk involved in picking a young, unproven quarterback this high.
7. Detroit Lions
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
The 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner led the country that season with 1,780 receiving yards and 20 touchdown catches, and he’d instantly be the Lions’ top receiver on a depth chart that includes new signings Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman. He’s great at making contested catches and can break tackles and run after the catch. He’s a legit No. 1 wideout, which is sorely needed in Detroit.
8. Carolina Panthers
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
My appreciation for Sam Darnold’s potential is well-documented at this point, so I don’t see Carolina taking a quarterback here after trading for the former Jets starter. Go and get him some help instead, either along the offensive line or at receiver. Smith is a stellar route runner who just gets open. Put him alongside DJ Moore and Robby Anderson and this is a top-10 offense. Why couldn’t Carolina compete for a wild-card spot in 2021?
9. Denver Broncos
Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
New general manager George Paton’s offseason moves seem to point to the Broncos sticking with Drew Lock rather than taking a quarterback in the top 10. Lock flashes enough that he deserves another season to prove he can be a starting-caliber quarterback. The defense must get some help, though, and Parsons would be an upgrade at inside linebacker. He could also rush the passer on third downs. He’s the best off-ball ‘backer in this class.
Projected trade: New England gets its quarterback
With only one of the top five quarterbacks still available, the Patriots jump five spots with the Cowboys, giving Dallas their 2022 first-round pick in return. The Cowboys don’t need a quarterback, so they’d be thrilled to get an offer like this and move down only a few spots, because their biggest holes are on defense and they can get a good player at No. 15.
This would be the first time in the common draft era (since 1967) that five quarterbacks went in the top 10 picks. The quickest that five QBs were picked was in 1999, when five went in the top 12.
10. New England Patriots (via mock trade with DAL)
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
This makes five quarterbacks in the top 10, with Bill Belichick & Co. making the move up for Fields, my second-ranked quarterback. All the moves the Patriots made in free agency showed me that they believe they can get right back into competing for the AFC East title, but I don’t think Cam Newton is the quarterback to get them there. He had too many accuracy issues last season. He’s not the long-term answer. Fields had an up-and-down 2020 season, but he can be a star if he becomes more consistent. And I trust that offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will get him there.
11. New York Giants
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
This is an important season for quarterback Daniel Jones. Can he take a Josh Allen-esque leap in Year 3? To do so, he has to get better pass-catchers around him. That started with the Giants adding top wideout Kenny Golladay in free agency, and Waddle would give them the draft’s best deep threat, a speedy playmaker who will also make an impact in the return game. I thought about edge rusher here as well.
12. Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA through SF)
Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
The Eagles traded out of the top 10 and moved to No. 12, which essentially took them out of the quarterback race. They could also miss out on the top wide receivers; I suspect they would jump at Waddle if he made it here. Just looking at this roster, though, corner should be a priority, and they’d have their pick of all of them if the board shakes out this way. Surtain is the most fundamentally sound defensive back in this class.
13. Los Angeles Chargers
Rashawn Slater, OT/G, Northwestern
Protecting Justin Herbert has been the theme of the Chargers’ offseason, with general manager Tom Telesco spending in free agency on center Corey Linsley and tackle/guard Matt Feiler. So let’s continue that theme with Slater, who played both tackle spots in college but could move to guard in the NFL. This could be a steal for L.A. Slater is likely to become Northwestern’s first Round 1 pick since Luis Castillo, who also was drafted by the Chargers (No. 28 in 2005).
14. Minnesota Vikings
Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
That’s four mock drafts for the 2021 class for me, and four offensive linemen to Minnesota in the first round. It’s a glaring hole on this roster. Darrisaw was outstanding at left tackle for the Hokies last season; our Stats & Info team tracked him at 264 total pass-block plays, and he allowed just three pressures and one sack. Put him at left tackle on Day 1 for the Vikings.
15. Dallas Cowboys (via mock trade with NE)
Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
Dallas trades back five spots with New England, gains what would likely be a 2022 first-round pick and is able to plug a need at No. 15. The Cowboys’ defense was dreadful last season, and they lost starting corner Chidobe Awuzie in free agency. They can pair Horn with 2020 second-round pick Trevon Diggs, who had a nice rookie season. The knock on Horn is that he had only two career interceptions, but that ball production should come in time.
16. Arizona Cardinals
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Farley is my top-ranked corner, but he could be the third off the board depending on his medical checks. He had back surgery last month — a microdiscectomy — and wasn’t able to work out at his pro day, which means teams weren’t able to see him up close after he opted out of the 2020 season. At his best, though, Farley has the highest ceiling of all the defensive backs in this class. Arizona let Patrick Peterson walk in free agency and signed Malcolm Butler on a short-term deal, but it could still address the position here.
17. Las Vegas Raiders
Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/G, USC
The Raiders overhauled their offensive line this offseason, trading away tackle Trent Brown, guard Gabe Jackson and center Rodney Hudson. Maybe general manager Mike Mayock and coach Jon Gruden knew they could address the O-line in Round 1 because it’s a deep class, but they still have voids to fill. Vera-Tucker is my top-ranked guard, but he really came into his own while playing left tackle for the Trojans last season. He could play either spot for Las Vegas.
18. Miami Dolphins
Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
Yes, this is the first edge rusher off the board, all the way down at No. 18. It’s not an elite class, but Paye could start a run on edge defenders all the way into Round 2. There is quality overall, even if there aren’t any instant stars. Paye is my top-ranked defensive end, a gifted athlete who didn’t put up sack production at Michigan (11.5 sacks in four seasons). Teams will be on his potential and traits, though. With two picks down so far and the trade up for Kyle Pitts, Miami has two players who rank No. 1 at their positions.
19. Washington Football Team
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
Washington could go a few different ways here, including offensive line or wide receiver. I like the fit of Owusu-Koramoah, though, as a three-down off-ball linebacker with cover skills. He’s extremely versatile — he lined up as a slot corner for the Fighting Irish at times last season — and fast. He must improve as a tackler, but he should slot in as an instant-impact player for a defense that is already one of the league’s best.
20. Chicago Bears
Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
Jenkins is the last of four offensive tackles on whom I have first-round grades. A three-year starter at right tackle for Oklahoma State, he’s outstanding in the run game. He’d fill the spot created by the release of Bobbie Massie. Chicago could also be in play for a pass-rusher, though it has put a lot of capital toward Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn. A young edge defender such as Jaelan Phillips could be a situational player as a rookie.
21. Indianapolis Colts
Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami
With my first-round offensive tackles all picked, Indianapolis should address its pass rush, even if it does bring back Justin Houston. Phillips might be the best pure pass-rusher in this class, but he needs to improve his all-around game. He also has some durability concerns — he had multiple concussions at UCLA before he transferred to Miami — which means his medical checks with teams are extremely important.
22. Tennessee Titans
Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
Though the Titans are another team that could address their pass rush, I really like Moore’s fit as Ryan Tannehill’s primary slot target. Moore had 1,193 receiving yards in eight games last season, working predominantly out of the slot. He can be a high-volume, easy-throw target alongside A.J. Brown, who has blossomed into a legit No. 1 wideout. Cornerback is another position to watch for Tennessee.
23. New York Jets (from SEA)
Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
The Jets are a tough team to predict, and their defense could use an overhaul; you know new coach Robert Saleh wants a chance to reshape the side of the ball he coaches with a prime pick. Newsome has been a riser over the past month; his 2020 tape is phenomenal, and he had a great pro day workout. He fits well with what Saleh wants in his corners. Newsome is the last of four cornerbacks who I think are likely to go in Round 1.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
The Steelers could go with an offensive lineman here, as center Maurkice Pouncey retired, tackle Matt Feiler left in free agency and free-agent tackle Alejandro Villanueva is still unsigned. But I’d love to see Harris in this offense to take the pressure off quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. He could grind down defenses as a runner and help in the short passing game. If Harris goes in Round 1, he’ll be the fifth Alabama running back picked in the first round since 2000. The others: Josh Jacobs (2019), Trent Richardson (2012), Mark Ingram (2011) and Shaun Alexander (2000). Notably absent is Derrick Henry, who was a second-round pick in 2016 and somehow just had an underrated 2,000-yard campaign.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)
Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
I’ll stick with Moehrig to the Jaguars here as a free safety complement to free-agent signing Rayshawn Jenkins. I thought about a pass-catcher, but the Jaguars could find an impact player in Round 2 (they pick at Nos. 33 and 45). Offensive line could be another position to target, but they shouldn’t reach. Moehrig, who had 19 pass breakups over the last two seasons and won the Thorpe Award as the country’s best defensive back in 2020, isn’t likely to be on the board in Round 2. He’s my top-ranked safety.
26. Cleveland Browns
Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
Davis is another defender who is rising since the season ended. He’s really only a one-year starter — he started one game in 2019 — but he was tremendous last season with 96 tackles, three interceptions and a sack. Davis was all over the field making plays. He could play any of the linebacker spots for the Cleveland 4-3 defense. The Browns could also target an edge rusher with this pick, even if they do sign Jadeveon Clowney.
27. Baltimore Ravens
Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
As I wrote in my Mock Draft 3.0, quarterback Lamar Jackson needs an outside wide receiver who can run every route. That’s Marshall, and it’s rare that a team is able to find a guy like him this late in Round 1. That just shows how exceptional and deep this wideout class is going to be. Marshall fits even with Sammy Watkins joining Baltimore on a one-year deal. With Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue both gone in free agency, I also thought about Penn State edge defender Jayson Oweh, who has big-time upside.
28. New Orleans Saints
Zaven Collins, OLB/DE, Tulsa
The Saints haven’t been able to add players this offseason because of their salary-cap constraints, so this is their best chance to get a player who can make an immediate impact. They have to hit on their pick if they want to extend their championship window with Drew Brees retired. Collins is a versatile linebacker who was the only FBS player to have at least four sacks and four interceptions last season. He wasn’t asked to rush the passer much, but he still got four sacks. He could play outside or middle linebacker for New Orleans. He’s a fun defender to watch.
29. Green Bay Packers
Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Like the Saints, the Packers haven’t been able to add roster improvements because they’re up against the cap, so let’s snag a wide receiver for reigning MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Bateman played outside and in the slot for the Golden Gophers, averaging 20.3 yards per catch in 2019. He would instantly become Green Bay’s No. 2 wideout behind Davante Adams. Bateman is the sixth and final Round 1 wide receiver in this mock draft. The Packers could also address the interior of their offensive line, particularly with longtime starting center Corey Linsley leaving in free agency.
30. Buffalo Bills
Azeez Ojulari, OLB/DE, Georgia
With starting defensive ends Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison over the age of 30, the Bills need to get younger on the edge. They took AJ Epenesa in Round 2 last year, but that’s not enough. The speedy pass-rusher Ojulari had 8.5 sacks and three forced fumbles last season. Cornerback and running back are other positions Buffalo could target.
31. Kansas City Chiefs
Jayson Oweh, OLB, Penn State
It has to be offensive tackle or edge rusher for the Chiefs here, right? The Super Bowl loss showed off some major weaknesses, even if this roster is still one of the league’s best. Oweh is an interesting case because his coaches raved about his athletic traits, and he just ran a 4.36 40-yard dash at 257 pounds. That’s unbelievable. Sacks aren’t everything, but he didn’t have any last season, and Oweh could be the first FBS defensive lineman since Dominique Easley (2014) to be selected in the first two rounds after not recording a sack in his final collegiate season, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Scouts rave about his upside, but I still would have liked more production.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
General manager Jason Licht has done a great job putting together a great core, and the Bucs are essentially bringing back the exact same roster for 2021. That’s not a terrible idea when you’ve just won the Super Bowl. One spot where they could get younger is defensive tackle. Barmore could replace Ndamukong Suh long term and play next to elite nose tackle Vita Vea. Barmore has some potential as a 3-technique pass-rusher.
ROUND 2
33. Jacksonville Jaguars
Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
I would have loved to find a fit for Toney in Round 1, but this could be a great spot for him.
34. New York Jets
Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
35. Atlanta Falcons
Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami
36. Miami Dolphins (via HOU)
Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina
37. Philadelphia Eagles
Nick Bolton, ILB, Missouri
38. Cincinnati Bengals
Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina
39. Carolina Panthers
Landon Dickerson, C/G, Alabama
40. Denver Broncos
Kelvin Joseph, CB, Kentucky
41. Detroit Lions
Malcolm Koonce, DE/OLB, Buffalo
42. New York Giants
Ronnie Perkins, DE/OLB, Oklahoma
43. San Francisco 49ers
Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
44. Dallas Cowboys
Joe Tryon, DE, Washington
45. Jacksonville Jaguars (via MIN)
Hunter Long, TE, Boston College
46. New England Patriots
Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson
47. Los Angeles Chargers
Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
48. Las Vegas Raiders
Richie Grant, S, UCF
49. Arizona Cardinals
Tutu Atwell, WR, Louisville
50. Miami Dolphins
Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan
So let’s recap my projections for the Dolphins. They get an instant starter at tight end at No. 4, a defensive end with upside at No. 18, an RB1 at No. 36 and a potential starter at tackle here. Mayfield played right tackle for the Wolverines, and he could play there for Miami, with Robert Hunt moving back inside to guard. He has great footwork for a lineman. Consider these four picks as needs filled for the Dolphins.
51. Washington Football Team
Davis Mills, QB, Stanford
52. Chicago Bears
Anthony Schwartz, WR, Auburn
53. Tennessee Titans
Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida State
54. Indianapolis Colts
Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
55. Pittsburgh Steelers
Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State
56. Seattle Seahawks
Joseph Ossai, OLB/DE, Texas
57. Los Angeles Rams
Ernest Jones, LB, South Carolina
58. Baltimore Ravens
Liam Eichenberg, OT/G, Notre Dame
59. Cleveland Browns
D’Wayne Eskridge, WR, Western Michigan
60. New Orleans Saints
Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
61. Buffalo Bills
Benjamin St-Juste, CB, Minnesota
62. Green Bay Packers
Jackson Carman, OT, Clemson
63. Kansas City Chiefs
Walker Little, OT, Stanford
64. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Simi Fehoko, WR, Stanford
We haven’t always been a fan of Kiper, but there was something about how he constructed this draft and presented it that felt well thought-out and believable.
And we note, that, for Kiper, Texas A&M QB KELLEN MOND is still sitting there to start the third round.
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