NFC EAST

WASHINGTON

OL ERECK FLOWERS is returning to Washington.  Will left the team that must not be named and returns to WFT.  Nick Shook of NFL.com:

Ereck Flowers‘ tumultuous NFL career appears to have achieved some stability, and he’s heading back to where he first found it.

The Miami Dolphins have agreed to trade Flowers to the Washington Football Team in a deal involving a swap of late round draft picks, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported. Washington will now pick No. 258 overall, while Miami holds pick No. 244.

The agreed-upon trade sends Flowers back to the place where he initially transitioned from tackle to guard and finally developed into a player who could be counted on to block reliably. Flowers was reportedly delighted by the move, as he’ll get a chance to reunite with the staff that turned his career around.

“I’m very excited and anxious to get back up there because I love the O-line room and I already had a good relationship with coach John Matsko as well,” Flowers told reporter Josina Anderson. “This is best for me.”

A former first-round pick of the Giants in 2015, Flowers never lived up to the expectation of becoming a franchise tackle while in New York. He struggled mightily at left tackle, becoming a (disappointingly) dependable source for ugly clips of him getting beaten soundly by opposing rushers, so much so that on at least one occasion, he kicked a foot out in a vain attempt to try to trip a defender. The signing of Nate Solder kicked Flowers over to right tackle in 2018, where Flowers didn’t fare any better, losing his job to Chad Wheeler.

With New York having already declined his fifth-year option, Flowers’ days were numbered, and he was officially released in early October of 2018.

So began his journey through the NFL, signing with Jacksonville and playing left tackle there for the rest of the season before moving on to Washington, where the Football Team’s staff recognized the former ninth-overall pick might actually be an effective guard. He started all of the 2019 season, playing well enough to earn a three-year, $30 million deal from Miami in 2020.

That same deal still exists, and helps explain why Washington is able to get a starting guard for just a swap of late-round picks. Flowers’ cap hit is $10 million in 2021 and increases to $11 million in 2022, a number Washington can afford. Miami, meanwhile, clears a decent chunk of cap space ahead of the draft.

Flowers will reunite with his former offensive line coach and give Washington options at guard between him and Wes Schweitzer, who stepped into the void left by Flowers’ departure (and also filled in for Brandon Scherff) in 2020.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

Here is what they are whispering to Todd McShay about the Falcons:

I’m getting a strong reading that the Falcons like Florida tight end Kyle Pitts as the fourth selection. He’d of course be a game-changer in that offense, and the organization believes he has a great chance to be a Hall of Fame type of player.

The wild card? Some are wondering whether team owner Arthur Blank might step in and decide this pick has to be a QB. Atlanta might not be drafting this high again for a while, and it’s a chance to potentially set the team up at the position for the next decade. It’d be the macro line of thinking, versus the micro. But again, the preference I’m hearing is Pitts.

I also heard the Falcons are fielding calls regarding trading out and would consider moving down the board. If that becomes the case, would it be for someone like Northwestern offensive tackle Rashawn Slater or USC guard Alijah Vera-Tucker? Or could the Falcons trade back and see one of those top quarterbacks still available when they do end up picking? The value and opportunity might be too good to pass up at that point. In that scenario, Atlanta will have moved back and acquired other assets and still landed its QB of the future. That’s a pretty good outcome.

CAROLINA

Todd McShay on the Panthers and pick #8:

OK, now it gets interesting. The direction of this pick could end up surprising a lot of people, and I’ve heard a few different directions it could go. The first might be the most eyebrow-raising.

One GM and one scout — neither affiliated with the Panthers — told me that they’ve heard the Panthers could be lurking at No. 8 in the quarterback market. Yes, even after trading for Sam Darnold earlier this month, and yes, with Teddy Bridgewater also still on the roster as competition. Ohio State’s Justin Fields’ name was tossed around as the guy in mind.

The thinking is Darnold has a cap hit south of $5 million for 2021 — extremely cheap for a starter — and the Panthers could see how he plays this season and then go from there. If Darnold shines, they have a good problem: having to decide which QB to build around and which to attempt to move. If he doesn’t, they already have a young replacement with potential on the roster. It’s also worth pointing out Carolina doesn’t have to pick up Darnold’s fifth-year option for 2022 until after the draft, leaving it more flexibility.

Two things to remember here, though: It’s smoke screen season, and this came from evaluators outside the Panthers’ organization based on what they were told; and it’s entirely possible that Carolina is only floating this notion to bait a team such as Denver, New England, Washington or Chicago to move up for a king’s ransom.

If it’s not a QB or a trade, wide receiver appears to be the thought. If Kyle Pitts goes to Atlanta and Ja’Marr Chase goes to Miami, Carolina would likely be focusing in on whichever of DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle the Lions don’t select at No. 7.

And one last note: I’ve been told the Panthers prefer Penei Sewell of the top two tackles and are not as high on Rashawn Slater as other teams might be. But that came from another team’s GM, which is perhaps more evidence of trying to throw everyone off the scent.

If the Panthers move back from #8, David Newton of ESPN.com tries to who would trade with them and what they would offer:

Beyond discovering Carolina Panthers coach Matt Rhule is a fan of the Dave Matthews Band and doesn’t like pickled eggs, we learned on the team’s pre-draft news conference that general manager Scott Fitterer is “very open to moving back’’ from the eighth pick in the NFL draft (8 p.m. ET Thursday, ABC/ESPN/ESPN App) and he’s already had talks with “at least five teams.’’

This shouldn’t come as a surprise, since Fitterer came from a Seattle organization that traded back or out of the first round in eight consecutive drafts before last year. It also isn’t a surprise because the Panthers likely won’t get the three players that could help them the most at No. 8.

Since Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is going to Jacksonville at No. 1, those three would be Florida tight end Kyle Pitts, LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase and Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell.

If one of those players is there at No. 8, there likely will be no discussion of trading back.

While Fitterer admits the Panthers remain open to selecting a quarterback, his best ammunition to add picks is to trade with a team seeking one of the top five quarterbacks that doesn’t go in the top three. That’s likely to be Ohio State’s Justin Fields, Alabama’s Mac Jones or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance.

The teams most interested in a quarterback are the Denver Broncos at No. 9, New England Patriots at 15, Washington Football Team at 19 and Chicago Bears at 20.

As Fitterer acknowledged, “there’ll be a lot more calls this week.’’

And not all will be looking to trade up for a quarterback.

Ideally, the Panthers would like to add several picks to replenish those sent to the New York Jets in the trade for quarterback Sam Darnold — a late sixth-rounder this year, and second- and fourth-rounders in 2022.

If a team is going to risk overpaying to move up, it likely would be for a quarterback. Just don’t expect another deal as rich as San Francisco giving Miami the 12th pick, a first- and third-rounder in 2022 and a first-rounder in 2023 for the third pick.

In the common draft era (since 1967), there have been 29 trades up for a first-round quarterback — 24 of which involved swapping solely draft picks.

For proper context, let’s look at some recent trades made to draft a quarterback, good and bad.

• In 2017, Chicago traded picks Nos. 3, 67 and 111 to San Francisco to move up one spot to select Mitchell Trubisky.

• Also in 2017, Kansas City gave Buffalo the No. 27 pick, a third-rounder in 2017 and a first-rounder in 2018 to move to No. 10 to take Patrick Mahomes.

• In 2018, the Jets sent picks 6, 37, 52, 169 and a second-rounder in 2019 to Indianapolis for the third pick to select Darnold.

• Also in 2018, Buffalo traded the No. 12 pick and two second-rounders (53, 56) to Jacksonville to move to No. 7 for Josh Allen.

So, how far back might the Panthers be willing to move?

“We don’t want to trade out to beyond a certain level where the talent dips,’’ Fitterer said.

Fitterer is of the belief there’s a drop-off every year somewhere between picks 15 and 19. The Panthers have 16 players with a first-round grade this year.

On the flip side, Fitterer said the second round talent is “really strong.’’

So what could the Panthers realistically receive in exchange for the eighth pick? I reached out toESPN.com NFL Nation reporters in Denver (Jeff Legwold), New England (Mike Reiss), Washington (John Keim) and Chicago (Jeff Dickerson) to get their takes.

Denver (9): The Broncos haven’t had discussions about trading up yet, but have had talks about trading down. They likely wouldn’t offer much to move up one spot, regardless. They would likely be more interested in trading for Teddy Bridgewater, but only if his contract was renegotiated. Bridgewater, Carolina’s starter last season, is guaranteed $10 million and his current 2021 cap hit is $22.9 million.

New England (15): This is the most ideal spot to trade back because Carolina likely still would get one of the top three cornerbacks — Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II, South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn and Virginia Tech’s Caleb Farley. Here’s the snag. Coach Bill Belichick has made 14 trades involving a move up or down in the first round with New England, but he’s never drafted a quarterback in the first round or moved into the top 10. Having Tom Brady most of that time has to be factored in. So if the Patriots are high on a quarterback, a trade to 8 could happen, there’s just not a high percentage of it. And since Belichick has referenced the Jimmy Johnson draft-value chart in the past, it’s doubtful New England would give up more than the 15th pick and a second-rounder (46), despite having 10 picks in this draft.

Washington (19): It wouldn’t be the first time Washington coach Ron Rivera traded with his former team. He sent a fifth-round pick here last season for quarterback Kyle Allen. Washington also offered a first- and third-rounder this offseason to Detroit for Matthew Stafford, who ultimately went to the Rams. There could be a scenario where Washington would make a run at Fields, but likely not with a huge offer. Perhaps picks 19, 51 and one of the team’s third-rounders (74 or 82), along with a second-round pick next year.

Chicago (20): The Bears are far from settled at quarterback with Andy Dalton penciled in as the starter and Nick Foles behind him. Coach Matt Nagy attended workouts for Jones and Fields, so there is interest in moving up for a long-term fix. The 20th pick is beyond Fitterer’s stated range for an immediate difference-maker, but the Bears could be willing to throw in a 2022 first-rounder and perhaps another pick in either ’21 or ’22 to make it enticing.

TAMPA BAY

And, even WR ANTONIO BROWN is back for the defending champs.

Wide receiver Antonio Brown is re-signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a one-year contract, his agent told NFL Network on Wednesday.

Brown’s deal could be worth up to $6.25 million, his agent said. He is guaranteed $3.1 million, including a $2 million signing bonus.

To make the needed cap room to sign Brown, the Buccaneers and tight end Cameron Brate have agreed to a restructured deal that clears $4.69 million in cap space for 2021, a source told ESPN’s Field Yates.

Brate’s salary for next season drops to $1.075 million, and he gets a $2.425 million signing bonus, the source said. As they have done often this offseason, the Buccaneers included two voidable years on the contract.

After serving an eight-game suspension last season for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy, Brown signed with the Buccaneers just before their Week 9 game against the New Orleans Saints. While his contract with the Buccaneers was a far cry from his previous salaries — his base salary was $750,000, with incentives that pushed the deal to $2.5 million — the move reunited him with quarterback Tom Brady and afforded him the chance to get his life back on track after being out of football for over a year and initially calling it quits after he was cut by the New England Patriots in September 2019.

Bruce Arians initially said Brown “was not a fit” for the Buccaneers’ locker room in the early spring of 2020, but the coach relented when injuries began piling up. After meeting with Brown in October, Arians said he believed the wide receiver had “matured.”

Brown honored that trust, with Arians calling him a “model citizen” during the season. Despite being on felony probation for a battery charge against a delivery truck driver and facing a sexual assault lawsuit, Brown kept his name out of the headlines in Tampa Bay while being productive on the field.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

Here’s what Todd McShay of ESPN.com hears about pick #3 and its not good news for QB JUSTIN FIELDS:

The 49ers moved up from No. 12 to No. 3 with a massive trade at the end of March, which all but locked them into a QB in Round 1. Teams don’t mortgage their futures and jump nine spots into the top five to do anything else. But which quarterback will it be?

I’m told that many in the 49ers’ personnel department have pushed for North Dakota State QB Trey Lance but that coach Kyle Shanahan wants to draft Alabama’s Mac Jones. One person I spoke to even heard that Shanahan might “acquiesce” to the scouting department on the selection, but others have said that seems unlikely. At this time of year, there is a lot of seed planting in the rumor mill, and it could certainly be the case here.

What we do know is the first three picks will be quarterbacks, and it appears more than likely that Jones will be that No. 3 selection.

– – –

Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com thinks that QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO will be celebrating Cinco de Mayo with a new team.

@JasonLaCanfora

Very strong expectation among other GM’s and throughout the industry that the 49ers will make major effort to move Jimmy Garoppolo before or during the draft. Timing isn’t great with 5 QBs about to go in 1st round, but Jimmy G’s future there now seen as bleak

– – –

Adam Schein of NFL.com offers his takes on the subject:

Mac Jones to San Francisco makes perfect sense

Look, I get it. I love Trey Lance. I’m a huge fan of Justin Fields. I think this class truly does have five great quarterback prospects. But Kyle Shanahan wanting Mac Jones isn’t just viable — it’s super smart and logical.

Jones was outstanding in his one full season as Alabama’s starting quarterback, guiding the Crimson Tide to the national championship with a perfect 13-0 record and a staggering average margin of victory of 29.1 points per game. He completed 77.4 percent of his passes for 4,500 yards (346.2 per game) with 41 touchdowns against just four interceptions. I mean, those are video game numbers. While the athleticism is rightly questioned, Jones’ processing ability and accuracy are on point. He’s a perfect fit in Shanahan’s offense. Remember what this scheme did for Matt Ryan? He won league MVP and nearly (should’ve) won a Super Bowl. Former Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff told me last month on The Adam Schein Podcast that he sees the similarities between Ryan and Jones. Remember: Dimitroff’s first-ever draft pick in Atlanta was Ryan. And it was a gem. Jones can be that guy for Shanahan and John Lynch in San Francisco. And crucially, he can be that guy immediately.

Jones is ready to step in and rock. Like at ‘Bama, he’d be taking the reins of a team that’s primed to win big. The Niners have a rock-solid offensive line headlined by the best left tackle in the game today, Trent Williams. They have a stud tight end in George Kittle and a diverse group of dynamic receivers. Plus, the loaded defense will be back to form with the healthy return of Nick Bosa. San Francisco’s poised to make noise in 2021 — if the quarterback position’s right. Given Jimmy Garoppolo‘s injuries and inconsistency, it’s not hard to imagine Shanahan thinking Jones would give him a better chance to win a Super Bowl going forward. And while Lance absolutely has more upside than Jones, the North Dakota State product needs some time to marinate. Over the past 15 months, Lance has participated in more pro days (2) than games (1).

Despite all the smoke of the past month, I firmly believe Shanahan knows who he wants. You don’t make an aggressive trade up from No. 12 to 3 without knowing. I’ve been saying since the trade that there’s a 70 percent chance it’s Jones, 29 percent chance it’s Lance, 1 percent chance it’s other. But I think Jones is higher than 70 percent today. Because it’s Kyle’s pick. And Kyle’s offense. And Mac Jones can be the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2021, guiding this San Francisco team back to the playoffs. That’s why you make the pick.

Jimmy Garoppolo will be alive on Sunday … and a Patriot

Asked on Monday if Jimmy G will be on the roster this coming Sunday, Kyle Shanahan provided quite an answer.

“I can’t guarantee that anybody in the world will be alive Sunday,” the 49ers coach quipped, “so I can’t guarantee who’ll be on our roster on Sunday.”

Well, alright.

I believe Jimmy will still be with us on Sunday, but he’ll also be reunited with some old friends in Foxborough. It just makes too much sense.

Garoppolo is done as The Guy in San Francisco. It’s an open secret. Meanwhile … The Patriots are officially back after an amazing offseason. They just need a new quarterback. I’m certainly in favor of trading up if Justin Fields or Trey Lance falls. But Bill Belichick could just stay at No. 15, add a much-needed receiver and still trade a pick (third-rounder?) for a quarterback he wanted to keep in New England in the first place.

Jimmy G is better than this version of Cam Newton, and he’s obviously quite familiar with Josh McDaniels’ system. There’s just so much logic here. Get. It. Done.

AFC WEST

DENVER

Adam Schein of NFL.com with a demand for the Broncos:

6) The Broncos MUST take a quarterback

I think Denver’s new general manager, George Paton, is off to a great start. I liked his approach to free agency — particularly his effort to shore up the secondary by adding guys like Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby — but now he needs his franchise quarterback.

Drew Lock is not the answer. We saw that last year, when he consistently failed to maximize a strong supporting cast, going 4-9 with an NFL-high 15 picks. The Broncos have an enticing collection of young weapons, but they need the right trigger man. Holding the No. 9 overall pick, Paton and Co. have to do what they can to find the solution on Thursday night. They can’t be afraid of moving up a slot or two if Justin Fields and/or Trey Lance is available. How intriguing would this roster be with that kind of talent at quarterback?

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

No surprise, but QB LAMAR JACKSON will have his 5^th year option picked up:

For those who had any doubts, Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh said Tuesday that the team will pick up quarterback Lamar Jackson’s fifth-year option before Monday’s deadline.

“Guarantee it,” Harbaugh said on “The Rich Eisen Show.”

Jackson will make a guaranteed $23.1 million in 2022, a significant raise from his $1.7 million salary this season. This will be the highest fifth-year option in the league next season, tying that of Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

By exercising Jackson’s option, the Ravens will squash the speculation that the team will allow Jackson to “graduate” after four seasons. An NFL Network analyst recently suggested the Ravens could trade up to draft a quarterback this week and move on from Jackson before his heightened salary-cap hit limits Baltimore’s spending.

Harbaugh made it clear that won’t be the case.

“He’s definitely going to be our quarterback,” Harbaugh said. “That’s the plan, absolutely.”

Jackson, 24, has won more games (30) than any other NFL quarterback since taking over as Baltimore’s starter midway through the 2018 season. and he became the second unanimous league MVP in 2019. He is the first player in NFL history to produce 5,000 yards passing and 2,500 yards rushing in his first three seasons.

Harbaugh pointed out how the Ravens have scored more points than any other team in Jackson’s two full seasons as a starting quarterback.

“I feel like it all points to one thing and the thing he talks about all the time: He wants to win a Super Bowl,” Harbaugh said. “I think he’s a very unique guy. He’s a guy that’s different in a lot of ways than any quarterback that’s ever played. Lamar is somebody that just kind of breaks the mold a little bit. He does it in a way that a lot of people didn’t anticipate. They didn’t see this coming. He’s very determined — and we’re very determined — to prove those people wrong.”

In March, Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said the team is “confident and committed” to getting a long-term deal done with Jackson.

CLEVELAND

QB BAKER MAYFIELD gets a fifth-year option picked up by the Browns.  Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield is taking some time to smell the $18.858 million in roses he received on Friday in the form of having his fifth-year option for 2022 picked up, and he’s not fretting about the contract extension he’s eligible for this offseason.

“That’s one of those things that’s not in my control, but I’m truly thankful and grateful for them taking a chance – (GM) Andrew (Berry) and the Haslam Family – for picking up that fifth-year option, making it one more year in Cleveland and extending this journey that we started three years ago today,’’ Mayfield said on a video conference Monday. “Just saw something on that so I’ve been kind of thinking about that all day. I’m very happy about that.

“In terms of long-term deals or all of that, I’m taking it one day at a time. Still have two years, two seasons left on this full rookie contract now to see what happens.”

Mayfield, whose market value on a new deal is about $35 million a year according to Spotrac.com, acknowledged that he gets asked about the extension a lot. The reality is, the Browns can either extend him this offseason, or see how the season plays out and do it after the season.

A league source told cleveland.com on Friday that the Browns had not yet initiated extension talks.

Browns haven’t started extension talks with Mayfield yet

“It’s one of those things that I trust wholeheartedly in the Mills family, my agents, and for them to handle that behind that scenes,’’ he said. “Right now, it’s about setting up the foundation for this upcoming season, continuing to build on what we left with last year and continuing to improve.”

The No. 1 overall pick in 2018, Mayfield won’t get caught up in whether or not his QB classmates Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson get their extensions this offseason. The Ravens have started talks with Jackson, and the Bills have said they want Allen long-term, but haven’t placed a timeframe on the new deal.

PITTSBURGH

We have to admit thinking that CB MINKAH FITZPATRICK had been around for more than three seasons, heading into a fourth.  Jeff Hartman of Inside The Steel Curtain:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a decision to make as it pertains to their two first round safeties. With both being selected, although not both by the Steelers, in the first round, the Steelers hold the control over both Minkah Fitzpatrick and Terrell Edmunds’ fifth year options.

As of Tuesday, it is being reported by Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network the Steelers have picked up Fitzpatrick’s option.

Everyone knew the team would pick up Fitzpatrick’s option, it was a no-brainer, but what was interesting in the aforementioned report was there was no word on the team’s plans for Terrell Edmunds.

Under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) how much players make on the fifth year option depends on the success they’ve had in the first three years of their career. For a player like Fitzpatrick who has been a Pro Bowl and All-Pro the past two seasons, his option would be significantly more than Edmunds, who has yet to achieve either of those accolades.

Here is a more detailed breakdown on how the option pays out under the new CBA:

The payout for the fifth-year option in the new CBA comes on four different levels, although they are not called “levels” in their terminology. All players begin in what could be described as the first level and can reach the next level based on the percentage of snaps they have played in their first three seasons. To reach the third level, players must be selected to a Pro Bowl on the original ballot during their first three seasons, equating their fifth-year salary to that of the same position of someone receiving the transition tag. If a player was selected to multiple Pro Bowls on the original ballot, they reach the highest level which equals the pay of the franchise tag at a given position.

The Steelers don’t have a ton of time to make the decision on these players, with May 3rd being the NFL deadline for organizations to either pick up, or decline, the option. Since the fifth year option was instituted, the Steelers have only passed on the fifth year option twice, and those players were Jarvis Jones and Artie Burns.

Minkah is only 24.

– – –

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com on what the Steelers are thinking about at #24:

If you’re an NFL team that wants either running back Najee Harris or linebacker Zaven Collins on Thursday night and you pick below No. 24 in round one, you may need to trade up.

A source with knowledge of the dynamics driving the 2021 draft tells PFT that the Steelers are expected to take Harris or Collins, if either is there. The Cardinals are expected to take Collins at No. 16, if cornerbacks Patrick Surtain II and Jaycee Horn and receiver Jaylen Waddle are gone.

If both are there, we’ll see who they take. Collins could be the choice, given that plenty of other running backs can be found in later rounds of the draft.

The one and only PFT mock draft has North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance falling to No. 24, and the Steelers taking him. If he’s indeed there, it could be tempting to try to secure Ben Roethlisberger‘s successor. To get the most out of what could be Roethlisberger’s last year, the Steelers would be better off getting a running back with the kind of impact that Franco Harris had in 1972.

The Steelers have used 24 first-round picks on running backs or fullbacks. Since the merger, the Steelers have used a first-round pick on five running backs: Harris, Greg Hawthorne in 1979, Walter Abercrombie in 1982, Tim Worley in 1989, and Rashard Mendenhall in 2008.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

Todd McShay on who the Dolphins might prefer at #6:

The focus here, to no one’s surprise, is on a pass-catcher. Miami knows it has to give quarterback Tua Tagovailoa more weapons to find success. That started with signing Will Fuller V in free agency, and it continues here with one at No. 6. I’ve heard that Kyle Pitts is the favorite if still available, followed by Ja’Marr Chase. Then it’s a tight battle between Alabama wideouts DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. It will come down to how the board plays out.

THIS AND THAT

1^st ROUND SURPRISES

Tom Pellisero of NFL.com offers six players that could unexpectedly pop up in the 1^stround:

The 2021 NFL Draft is unique for several reasons, and here’s one of them:

Many teams have just 14 to 17 players rated as legitimate first-rounders, down from around 18 to 22 in a normal draft year. Consequently, for teams picking in the back half of Thursday night’s first round, odds are they’re choosing between second-round talents on many boards, or prospects who are sliding for a reason.

Toss in the COVID-altered pre-draft process — decentralized medical exams, no facility visits or private workouts, a bunch of top prospects who didn’t play much (if at all) in 2020, etc. — and you have a recipe for more surprises than usual early in the three-day event.

Here are six names you haven’t seen in many Round 1 mock drafts, but hearing them called on Thursday night wouldn’t shock NFL executives, scouts and coaches:

Carlos Basham Jr.

Wake Forest · DL

Basham’s pro day — which included a 4.59 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 1/4, 274 pounds — reinforced the athletic upside of a three-year starter and team captain for the Demon Deacons who finished his college career with 20.5 sacks, 36.5 tackles for loss (at least one in 23 consecutive games) and four forced fumbles, despite missing time last season with COVID-19.

“He’s versatile. He can play a lot of different defenses. He’s kind of that outside/inside guy,” a veteran AFC scout said. “It’s Wake Forest, he’s playing good people, tape’s good. I can square that one away.”

Edge is a premium position, and there aren’t really any slam dunk first-rounders beyond Miami’s Jaelan Phillips and Michigan’s Kwity Paye. The question on Basham seems to be less about whether he’s good enough to go in the first round and more about whether he’ll unlock his full potential.

“Talented guy, but man, he is not physical, lacks passion, lacks urgency,” an AFC executive said. “He could be very good if he wanted to.”

Tyson Campbell

Georgia · CB

Eric Stokes

Georgia · CB

Both helped their cause with a blazing 40 time at Georgia’s pro day: Campbell at 4.36 seconds, Stokes at 4.29.

“If there’s a run, both could go in the first,” one GM said. “I think Campbell has a little more upside. Stokes is a little closer to playing (immediately).”

Ball skills are part of the question on both players, though Stokes (6-0 5/8, 194 pounds) had four interceptions in 2020 and Campbell (6-1, 193) tied for the team lead with five pass breakups. With just two cornerbacks (South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn and Alabama’s Patrick Surtain) virtual locks for Round 1 and the stock of Virginia Tech’s Caleb Farley clouded by two back surgeries, it’s a matter of when the next tier of corners begin flying off the board: either late in the first round or early in the second.

Dillon Radunz

North Dakota State · OT

Four tackles — Oregon’s Penei Sewell, Northwestern’s Rashawn Slater, USC’s Alijah Vera-Tucker (who also can play guard, where he might be better suited in the NFL) and Virginia Tech’s Christian Darrisaw — are virtual locks for Round 1. For some, the fifth tackle is the versatile Radunz, a first-team FCS All-America pick at left tackle in 2019 who teams think can also play inside.

“He’s got the most upside,” one GM said, “but he’s got a ways to go.”

Other GMs and scouts say they don’t see Radunz (6-5 3/4, 301 pounds) going before Round 2. But with so many teams in the back half of the first round in need of offensive line help — Washington (19), Indianapolis (21), Tennessee (22) and Green Bay (29), among others — there could be a run at that position, too, on the draft’s first night.

Javonte Williams

North Carolina · RB

Many assume Alabama’s Najee Harris will be the first running back off the board, with Clemson’s Travis Etienne also a candidate to sneak into Round 1. But multiple scouts and coaches said they won’t be shocked if Williams ends up going in the first round, too.

“I love Javonte Williams,” a high-ranking AFC executive said. “I think he’s the best back in the draft.”

At 5-9 5/8 and 212 pounds, Williams isn’t as big as the 235-pound Harris. But he packs a punch (perhaps best displayed on his viral run against Miami in December) and showed off impressive all-around athletic ability at his pro day (4.55 40, 22 bench reps, 36-inch vertical jump and a broad jump of 10 feet, 3 inches). A team such as the Steelers, who have been linked extensively to Harris at No. 24 overall, would be logical fit.

Dyami Brown

North Carolina · WR

It’s anyone’s guess who the fourth receiver will be off the board after LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase and Alabama’s DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman will be in the mix. Ole Miss’ Elijah Moore has gained steam late. Florida’s Kadarius Toney and Purdue’s Rondale Moore come up as possibilities, too. But several teams echoed what one AFC coordinator predicted a couple weeks ago: “Dyami Brown could sneak up in there.”

A first-team all-ACC and third-team All-America selection in 2020, Brown led the Tar Heels with 55 catches for 1,099 yards and eight receiving touchdowns, after tying a school record with 12 receiving touchdowns on 51 catches for 1,034 yards in 2019. Only Chase had more TD catches of 20-plus yards over the past two seasons with 14 — despite opting out of the 2020 season! — while Smith and Brown had 13 each, per Pro Football Focus. At his March 29 pro day, Brown ran a 4.44 40 at 6-0 5/8 and 189 pounds. He also posted a 35 1/2-inch vertical leap, 10-8 broad jump, 4.35 short shuttle and 6.85 three-cone drill. As one NFC scout put it: “Fast, explosive, had (third-)most 20+ yard plays over last two years.”

Is it a long shot? Sure. But this is the year for it.

NICK SABAN – ANDs and BUTS

We saw the two-minute video of Nick Saban on this – and it is excellent and applicable to anything in life, not just getting drafted.  It’s been marketed recently like he revealed it, but we see references of this back to 2014 and beyond.  Still it was new to us, and struck a chord.

Speaking on a Q&A with the Louisiana Football Coaches Association, Saban explained that he tells players that “And” and “But” are the two most important words when it comes to evaluating prospects.

“They read the player [draft report]. I’ll take a defensive back,” Saban said. “He’s got quick feet, change of direction, got good long speed, can play man-to-man, he’s a good tackler, he’s got toughness, got really good ball judgement and really good ball skills – and, he’s a really good person, he was a leader on the team, he graduated from school, coaches loved him.”

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Saban then described the same player with a “but.”

“But – he had a positive drug test, he had a domestic violence incident with his girlfiend, got in a fight at a bar when he was a freshman, strength coach said he wouldn’t p— on him if he was on fire.

“Who do you want on your team: ‘and’ or ‘but’?”

Saban said he constantly tells players not to give teams a reason to say “but.”

“What I tell players is, you don’t realize that as soon as you apply for a job, as soon as you put your name into the draft, people are looking for reasons not to pick you. They’re looking for reasons not to hire you,” Saban said. “So don’t give anybody a reason to say ‘but.’ It’s the only way that you can create value for yourself.”

MIKE FLORIO’S ONLY MOCK DRAFT

It has Mike Florio’s name on it, but he claims to have a ghost drafter.

We used to do umpteen versions of mock drafts. That was before I developed a thorough and complete hatred of them. In recent years, we’ve shifted to a one-shot mock draft, with no concern for accuracy and no pride in authorship. Especially since I have now exported the assignment to a seasoned scout who currently is not employed by any team but whose credentials would not be questioned if his name were to be mentioned.

I thought about tinkering with his selections. But then I realized that I just don’t care. If any of these picks are right (and the first two are virtually guaranteed to be), the anonymous, unattached scout with no skin in the game gets the credit. For all that are wrong, I’m sure to still get the blame.

Again, I don’t care.

So here’s our one and only mock draft, with responsibility totally abdicated to someone who knows how to put together a draft board far better than I ever will.

1. Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, quarterback, Clemson.

The odds for Lawrence to go No. 1 are currently -10000. They should be even lower. The Jaguars have done nothing to suggest that the pick will be anyone but Lawrence.

2. Jets: Zach Wilson, quarterback, BYU.

Ditto in this spot. It’s been Wilson for weeks, and the Jets have done nothing to suggest it will be anyone else. Wilson becomes their latest effort to develop a true franchise quarterback.

3. 49ers (from Houston via Miami): Justin Fields, quarterback, Ohio State.

Yeah, the 49ers reportedly have narrowed their pick to Mac Jones and Trey Lance. Until they make the pick, however, anything can happen. Maybe something surprising will occur, as the 49ers strike the balance between the need for someone who can play now against the reality that the fans will lose their minds if it’s Mac Jones.

4. Falcons: Penei Sewell, tackle, Oregon.

Momentum has built in recent days for tight end Kyle Pitts. But here’s a crazy thought — Sewell as a Quenton Nelson-type for the Falcons, moving to guard at the next level and mauling people in the running game, while keeping the middle of the line sealed up in the passing game.

5. Bengals: Kyle Pitts, tight end, Florida.

LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase makes plenty of sense if Pitts is gone. For a team looking for weapons for quarterback Joe Burrow, Pitts instantly becomes the guy they’d once hoped Tyler Eifert consistently would be, and then some.

6. Dolphins (from Eagles): Ja’Marr Chase, receiver, LSU.

I’ve heard for weeks that the Dolphins would take Alabama receiver Jaylen Waddle over Chase, if both are available at No. 6. But since I didn’t put this list together, I’ll defer to the guy who did.

7. Lions: Michah Parsons, linebacker, Penn State.

Coach Dan Campbell wants kneecap biters. Owner’s special assistant (who has plenty of influence) Chris Spielman surely values the linebacker position. This pick fits with exactly what the Lions seem to be looking to do.

8. Panthers: Patrick Surtain II, cornerback, Alabama.

They’ll be tempted to take Mac Jones here, but they’ve made the investment in Sam Darnold. If anything, their hesitation to exercise the fifth-year option on Darnold may be aimed at trying to get a team to jump in front of them to take a quarterback — and to push a player they really want farther down the board.

9. Broncos: Alijah Vera-Tucker, guard-tackle, USC.

The Broncos need to address the quarterback position. They can do that by trading for Teddy Bridgewater. They can help whoever their quarterback will be by adding a flexible piece to the offensive line.

10. Cowboys: Rashawn Slater, tackle, Northwestern

The once-stout offensive line has gradually been falling apart. Despite having plenty of needs on defense, they need to address beefing up the blockers before it’s too late.

11. Giants: Devonta Smith, receiver, Alabama

Bedeviled for years by DeSean Jackson, the Giants get a DeSean of their own. The offense goes next level, and the return game becomes dangerous.

12. Eagles (from 49ers via Dolphins): Jaylen Waddle, receiver, Alabama.

Many think they’ll go for cornerback Jaycee Horn. To get the most out of quarterback Jalen Hurts, they need to give him weapons. And, yes, given the presence of 2020 first-rounder Jalen Reagor, the Eagles would have a three-Ja(y)len attack.

13. Chargers: Jaycee Horn, cornerback, South Carolina

The Chargers have a solid front seven but need help on the back end, although it would be tempting to take an offensive lineman here, in order to better protect the franchise quarterback.

14. Vikings: Christian Darrisaw, tackle, Virginia Tech.

Edge rusher is a pressing need, but too much is invested in the offense to not address the needs on the offensive line, especially with Riley Reiff gone.

15. Patriots: Mac Jones, quarterback, Alabama.

Bill Belichick is trying to win now. Jones could help New England win more later.

16. Cardinals: Kwity Paye, edge, Michigan.

I’ve heard they’ll take Zaven Collins in this spot if Waddle, Horn, and Surtain are gone. But I’ve decided not to deviate from the formulation created by someone other than me.

17. Raiders: Jaelen Phillips, edge, Miami.

The defense needs help. Jon Gruden could be tempted to take a look at rookie quarterback Trey Lance, but Gruden strongly prefers veterans

18. Dolphins: Azeez Ojulari, edge, Georgia

Gregory Rousseau also is a possibility here. Regardless, the Dolphins address an area of defensive need.

19. Washington: Greg Newsome II, cornerback, Northwestern.

Even with William Jackson III added in free agency, more corners would be useful for an improving defense that is on the verge of becoming one of the best in the league.

20. Bears: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, linebacker, Notre Dame.

The Bears pride themselves on great linebacker play. Owusu-Koramoah would eventually succeed Danny Trevathan in the starting lineup.

21. Colts: Trevon Moehrig, safety, TCU.

A solid defense gets another piece in an area of moderate need.

22. Titans: Kadarius Toney, receiver, Florida.

With Corey Davis gone after only four years, the Titans replace him with another target to complement A.J. Brown.

23. Jets (from Seahawks): Asante Samuel, Jr., cornerback, Florida State.

The Jets address an area of pressing need with the son of a former Patriot.

24. Steelers: Trey Lance, quarterback, North Dakota State.

The Steelers are all in on trying to win in 2021, but will they be able to say no to a guy who could take the baton from Ben Roethlisberger? I’ve heard they’ll take Alabama running back Najee Harris or Tulsa linebacker Zaven Collins in this spot. But if Lance slides, Art Rooney will have to decide whether to give his third coach since 1969 the team’s fourth first-round quarterback since 1970.

25. Jaguars (from Rams): Tyson Campbell, cornerback, Georgia.

Urban Meyer addresses an area that had been an area of extreme strength a couple of years ago.

26. Browns: Terrace Marshall, Jr., receiver, LSU.

Another LSU receiver joins a team that has two of them, in Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. Beckham could be entering his last year with the team; if healthy and effective, don’t be shocked if he’s traded before the deadline.

27. Ravens: Alex Leatherwood, tackle, Alabama.

With Orlando Brown gone, Leatherwood fills the need created by the trade.

28. Saints: Carlos Basham, Jr., edge, Wake Forest.

The Saints address a need created by the free-agent departure of Trey Hendrickson.

29. Packers: Jamin Davis, linebacker, Kentucky.

A center is also possible here. (Hopefully, they’ll draft at least one receiver this year.)

30. Bills: Najee Harris, running back, Alabama.

If the Steelers take Harris, Clemson running back Travis Etienne could be the pick.

31. Ravens (from Chiefs): Gregory Rousseau, edge, Miami.

Calais Campbell loves Rousseau. They’ll potentially be teammates.

32. Buccaneers: Zaven Collins, linebacker, Tulsa.

I personally think he’ll be gone by this spot. If Bucs get him, they could try to make him an edge rusher and/or let him become the heir to Lavonte David. His size and skills and versatility would potentially make the Bucs defense dominant.