The Daily Briefing Wednesday, August 17, 2022

THE DAILY BRIEFING

AROUND THE NFL

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

The DB’s gut has been saying that Dan Campbell and the Lions will be more than lovable losers this season.  Warren Sharp offers more tangible reasons to love the Lions.

The Lions are predicted to win 6.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.

 

Why You Should Bet the Over: Lions Win Total in 2022

 

#1 Reason to bet the Over:

Dan Campbell and positive work culture. Not measurable in any statistic, however, the energy and passion that Campbell brings to the Lions are important to the rebuilding franchise.

 

The 2021 team lacked talent to begin with and experienced the third-highest adjusted games lost, yet showed up and played with maximum effort every week.

 

After starting 0-8 the Lions defeated the Packers, Vikings, and Cardinals, tied the Steelers, and lost three games by less than a touchdown.

 

Campbell was the fourth-most aggressive coach in Football Outsiders’ Aggressiveness Index and won the final game losing a chance at the No. 1 draft pick.

 

#2 Reason to bet Over:

The Lions are benefactors of both an improved strength of schedule and fortunate net rest.

 

After facing the fifth-hardest schedule of opponents last year, the Lions have the fifth-easiest in 2022, the third-highest improvement. Also aiding the Lions is not facing a single opponent that has a rest advantage.

 

#3 Reason to bet Over:

The Lions finished 1-4 in games decided by a field goal or less.

 

The Lions’ defense allowed a 70% red zone touchdown rate while the offense scored a touchdown on 47% of red zone possessions. Improvement in red zone efficiency will help the Lions in tight games.

 

GREEN BAY

QB AARON RODGERS with a spirited defense of QB JORDAN LOVE and his three opening night interceptions.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

“I felt really bad for Jordan the other night because we had a couple of total mental busts for picks,” Rodgers said on Tuesday. “We had a drop for a pick. We had two guys running who knows what on the third one. Now, he shouldn’t have thrown the ball there probably, but some of that’s veteran stuff making veteran mistakes.”

 

Overall, Rodgers said he thought Love did some “really good things.”

 

“The most important thing for any-age quarterback is the feet — throwing the ball on time and in rhythm. And I think he’s done a nice job of really focusing on the little things of this training camp and throwing the ball more often on time. It’s just about consistency and I thought there were some really nice balls. A couple decisions he’d probably want to have back, but those are kind of normal. But I’d like to see him keep trusting his feet and his athleticism.

 

“I’d love to see him [when] the pocket breaks down, nobody’s quite open on time, extend a play and take off and run and slide. But overall, I thought he did some really good things. … It might look bad in the stat sheet with three picks, but the film tells a different story.”

 

Given that Love plays with the two-time reigning MVP, the preseason is his time to shine. So Love is sure to get plenty more opportunities on Friday night when the Packers host the Saints for the second week of the preseason.

 

 

MINNESOTA

QB KIRK COUSINS is back from COVID.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is back from a five-day COVID hiatus for two days of practices with the 49ers.

 

He met with reporters on Wednesday morning.

 

Cousins said he was feeling “a little lousy” last Thursday, resulting in the COVID test. By rule (as of 2022) he was required to stay away for five days. He said he didn’t know whether he would have played in the preseason opener against the Raiders, if he’d been around. He later said he would have played a half-dozen snaps, at most.

 

He says he’s now “feeling good” and “ready to go.” He explained that the five days fell at a good time, if he was going to miss any time during camp, given the travel to and from Nevada and the day off on Monday.

 

And so he’s back for sessions with a team coached by a man who knows Cousins well — so well that Kyle Shanahan didn’t scout the class of quarterbacks in 2017 (including Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson) because Shanahan believed the 49ers would sign Cousins in free agency the following year.

 

His best year in Minnesota ended with a thud against the 49ers in the divisional round. The perpetual challenge for the Vikings, who always are relevant, is to be good enough to compete with whichever NFC team emerges as the best of the bunch in any given year. For more than 45 years, they haven’t been able to emerge from the 14 then 15 not 16 teams as the NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl.

– – –

Former Vikings coach Mike Zimmer has found a job – perhaps one you didn’t expect.

Zimmer, via HBCUGameday.com, has accepted a position on Deion Sanders’ staff at Jackson State. Sanders introduced Zimmer to the team on Tuesday.

 

“He’s asked me about it a few times,” Zimmer said. “The pay’s not good. But I do love Deion and I’d do anything for him.”

 

Zimmer coached Deion in Dallas from 1995, serving as defensive backs coach during Sanders’ entire tenure with the team.

 

“He can open up so many doors for these young men but I’m extremely impressed with the way he’s teaching them about life and not just football.” Zimmer said. “And taking care of them, and talking to them about the real things that go on in the world and not the fluff stuff.”

 

Zimmer definitely isn’t one for fluff stuff. He’s an old-school, Parcells-style coach who’s stingy with praise and generous with criticism. It’ll be interesting to see whether Sanders steers Zimmer away from that style, or whether they’ll do a good cop/bad cop thing when players need some tough love.

NFC SOUTH

Austin Mock of The Athletic on what a computer says about the 2022 NFC South.

I used my NFL projection model and simulated the NFL season 100,000 times to take a deep dive into the NFC South, and how likely each team is to win the division as well as make the playoffs in the 2022 season.

                                                  To Win NFC South            To Make Playoffs

Tampa Bay Buccaneers                      58.9%                                79.1%

New Orleans Saints                             31.2%                                59.4%

Carolina Panthers                                  8.3%                                23.8%

Atlanta Falcons                                      1.6%                                  5.7%

Vegas has the Bucs at 73% to win the division and the Saints at 24%.

Does Carolina at 24% to make the playoffs seem high?

 

 

TAMPA BAY

The Glazer Family’s other big sports investment is not going well and Manchester United has caught the attention of Elon Musk. The AP:

Elon Musk caused a stir on Wednesday by tweeting that he was buying Manchester United before saying several hours later that it was a joke.

 

It comes as the billionaire Tesla CEO faces a legal battle in the U.S. after backing out of a deal to buy Twitter for $44 billion. He is a prolific user of the platform, often musing about social issues or joking with his 103 million followers and occasionally getting into trouble with U.S. regulators.

 

Early Wednesday, Musk sent a tweet about his political affiliations and then added in a second tweet: “Also, I’m buying Manchester United ur welcome.”

 

United’s American owners, the Glazer family, have been strongly criticised by the club’s fans for the team’s underachievement in recent years.

 

Asked by a follower whether he was serious, Musk later tweeted: “No, this is a long-running joke on Twitter. I’m not buying any sports teams.”

 

NFC WEST

 

SEATTLE

It was QB DREW LOCK’s turn to start a preseason game this week, with the emphasis on the WAS.  Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times:

Just when the Seahawks’ quarterback battle appeared to be entering a different stage, real life got in the way.

 

Roughly 90 minutes after coach Pete Carroll said that Drew Lock would start for the Seahawks in their preseason game Thursday against the Chicago Bears at Lumen Field as part of a long-held plan to assure he got a start in his competition with Geno Smith, the Seahawks announced that Lock had tested positive for COVID-19 and will not be able to play.

 

The NFL is following CDC guidelines that state anyone with a positive test must isolate for five days. Lock participated fully in Tuesday’s practice meaning the earliest he could apparently return is Sunday.

 

Players are only testing if they experience symptoms. Lock is the first Seahawks player to test positive in camp.

 

That leaves Seattle with two quarterbacks for the game — Smith, who started Saturday against the Steelers and whom Carroll said remains atop the depth chart, and former Husky and Lake Stevens standout Jacob Eason.

 

Matt Calkins, also of the Seattle Times, on where the competition stood before COVID intervened:

 

Las Vegas gets things wrong sometimes, but the eternally-expanding-and-developing strip tells you that its consensus prediction that Seattle wins no more than six of its 17 contests next season has some merit.

 

But the usually-irrelevant preseason — one that rarely saw Russell Wilson on the field over the past few years — is stocked with legitimate suspense. It features a quarterback battle between Geno Smith and Drew Lock that is still at least 50 hash marks from being decided.

 

I’ve said before that Lock has more potential. I stated two Saturdays ago that he was loads better than Smith in the mock game, and I think he looked better in Saturday’s preseason opener vs. Pittsburgh, too. But I don’t think he pulled away as the clear front-runner; and if he doesn’t, he won’t get the starting job.

 

In other words: Tie — or anything close to a tie — goes to Smith.

 

The raw stat line from Saturday is as follows: Smith went 10 of 15 passing for 101 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions and a passer rating of 85.7. Lock finished 11 of 15 for 102 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions and a passer rating of 131.1. A cursory glance would suggest that Lock outperformed Smith far-and-away. But a cursory glance ignores the part that likely made Lock and Seahawks coach Pete Carroll curse.

 

As just about all Seahawks fans know by now, Lock fumbled the ball after being sacked on first down from the Steelers’ 47 with 1:10 remaining in the game and the score tied. His earlier boons had been reduced to a bust, and Pittsburgh went on to win the exhibition 32-25.

 

There is perhaps no coach who preaches ball control more than Carroll. It was his MO during the Seahawks’ Super Bowl runs — win the turnover battle and you’ll usually win the game. Moreover, Lock appears to be one of the more turnover-prone quarterbacks in the NFL.

 

He tied for the league lead in interceptions with 15 in 2020 despite playing just 13 games. He had eight fumbles that season, too. Joe Mahoney of milehighreport.com, meanwhile, wrote a piece showing that, from 2019-2020 — which included Lock’s rookie season when he went 4-1 — Drew ranked 33rd among 39 quarterbacks for most turnovers per snap.

 

In other words, that late-game fumble likely wasn’t viewed as a pimple on an otherwise Brad Pitt-face of a game — it was likely viewed as emblematic of why the former second-round pick was relegated to backup in Denver last year.

 

Both Carroll and Lock said after the game that the fumble was Lock’s fault — Lock doing so more directly.

 

 “I could have handled that better,” Lock said. “As a quarterback, you’re always able to fix those things and I’ll always take it on the chest, and I could have been better there.”

 

As Seattle Times Seahawks writer Bob Condotta pointed out, there was an array of factors that went into how one might have evaluated the two quarterbacks’ performances. Smith — who ran for a touchdown — played behind the Seahawks’ starting offensive line, whereas Lock played behind the second-stringers.

 

Smith had two passes dropped along with a should-have-been completion had Noah Fant gotten both feet inbounds, although Lock threw a strike to tight end Colby Parkinson in the end zone that was knocked out of his hands by a Steelers defender. It’s a toss-up, which will likely put a lot more Seattle eyeballs on the TV screen when the Seahawks host the Bears on Thursday.

 

Here’s where I think things stand now, though: Smith is the veteran who, yes, has been a longtime backup but has also been in the Seahawks’ locker room since 2019. He commands respect among teammates that Lock is still developing. Lock is also not a first-round pick or major trade acquisition that Seattle feels is the key to their future. Nobody will say it out loud, but the front office is likely looking to 2023 to find their long-term signal caller.

 

There is no built-in advantage for Lock. If anything, his being a brand-new face puts him at a slight disadvantage.

 

I’ve said before that fans are likely rooting for Lock to win the job simply because he has more upside. But his penchant for turnovers gives him a lot of downside, too.

 

There is no clear leader in the QB competition right now. And if by the end of the season there is no clear winner, I suspect it is Smith who will win.

AFC WEST

 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Big money for S DERWIN JAMES.  Liz Roscher of YahooSports.com:

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, James and the Los Angeles Chargers have agreed to a four-year contract extension that makes him the highest-paid safety in NFL history. The deal is reportedly worth $76.4 million and will pay James over $19 million a year.

 

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that the deal includes $42 million guaranteed. James was slated to make around $9 million in 2022.

 

James, 26, was selected by the Chargers with the 17th overall pick in the 2018 draft. He was a standout in his rookie year, logging 3.5 sacks, three interceptions, 13 pass breakups and 105 tackles. He was named a first-team All-Pro and selected to his first Pro Bowl that year, finishing second in the Defensive Rookie of the Year race. His 2021 season was also outstanding, earning him another first-team All-Pro and Pro Bowl selection. He also finished third in Comeback Player of the Year voting, as he missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 with injuries.

 

James had been sitting out practices at training camp while his agent, David Mulugheta, and the Chargers negotiated a new deal. He missed his 14th practice on Tuesday, but that mini hold-out should end now that he and the Chargers have inked an extension.

 

The prolonged contract talks and James’ hold-out didn’t affect how head coach Brandon Staley thinks about and values him. On Tuesday, Staley had nothing but glowing words to say about James.

 

“I don’t look at Derwin as a safety,” Staley said via the Los Angeles Times. “I look at Derwin as an impact player. If you were just looking at him as a safety, that wouldn’t be doing Derwin justice. For me, I look at him as a defensive back.”

AFC NORTH

 

CLEVELAND

The “expedited” review of Roger Goddell’s “designee” Peter Harvey is on hold while settlement talks continue in the matter of QB DESHAUN WATSON.  Mike Florio has the scoop:

Yes, settlement talks continue between the NFL and the NFL Players Association in the Deshaun Watson case. It’s no surprise at this point. It’s been the case since late last week.

 

Appeals officer Peter Harvey hasn’t completed the (by rule) “expedited” review two weeks after the filing of the league’s appeal of the original six-game suspension for one reason. He’s waiting until the league and the union reach impasse in their ongoing settlement talks.

 

The message on Monday was that a settlement remained viable. At this point, every minute that Harvey doesn’t issue a ruling means that a settlement can still happen. And because the NFL, as a practical matter, controls Harvey, he’ll wait until the NFL tells him that settlement talks have hit a brick wall.

 

That’s the bottom line. No ruling until no settlement.

 

So where could a settlement land? Watson reportedly is willing to accept eight games. The league surely wants at least 12 games. The obvious middle ground is 10 games, plus a fine that converts all or part of 2021 into an unpaid suspension by taking up to the full $10 million in salary that he received last year.

 

As previously mentioned, both sides need to be committed to selling to the public that last year was, as a practical matter, a paid suspension, since he didn’t play in 2021 due to the off-field issue. And that’s 100 percent accurate. But for the legal entanglement, he would have been traded to the Dolphins at some point between the middle of March and Labor Day weekend.

 

Now, a different deal is under the microscope. Will the NFL and the NFLPA strike a deal that avoids a ruling from Harvey and, in turn, a fight in federal court? The possibility of a settlement remains until Harvey rules.

 

Actually, a settlement can happen even after Harvey issues a ruling. The league surely would prefer, however, to not bang the internal gavel at something like a one-year suspension and then promptly walk it back to 10 or 12 after the union sues. The time to settle is now, before Harvey rules. And Harvey won’t rule unless and until there’s a genuine impasse.

AFC SOUTH

Austin Mock of The Athletic on what a computer says about the 2022 AFC South.

I used my NFL projection model and simulated the NFL season 100,000 times to take a deep dive into the AFC South, and how likely each team is to win the division as well as make the playoffs in the 2022 season.

                                          Win AFC South            Make Playoffs

Indianapolis Colts                     64.0%                          74.6%

Tennessee Titans                     30.1%                          44.9%

Jacksonville Jaguars                  4.7%                             8.3%

Houston Texans                         1.2%                             2.1%

In general, Mock likes the Colts chances to win the division more than the current Vegas odds which say 56%.  The odds have Tennessee at 37%.

 

AFC EAST

 

NEW ENGLAND

CB MALCOLM BUTLER’s return to New England will be, at best, delayed.  WCVB-TV’s Russ Reed:

The start of Malcolm Butler’s second stint with the New England Patriots has come to an end before the regular season began.

 

The Patriots announced Tuesday that they placed Butler on injured reserve, which means he will be out for the remainder of the 2022 season.

 

The team did not reveal what type of injury the 32-year-old cornerback suffered. Butler played in New England’s preseason opener against the New York Giants last Thursday, recording one tackle and recovering a fumble.

 

Butler is a Super Bowl hero among Patriots fans, as he helped New England win its fourth title — and first in 10 years — with a goal-line interception against the Seattle Seahawks during Super Bowl XLIX. At the time, he was a relatively unknown rookie.

– – –

Poor pass blocking and receiving limited RB RHAMONDRE STEVENSON as a rookie.  He seems to be improved.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com has some very expansive quotes from the usually reticent Bill Belichick:

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson was already in line for an increased role after an impressive closing stretch to his rookie season. The retirement of pass-catching back James White might have escalated Stevenson’s touches in 2022.

 

On Tuesday, Patriots coach Bill Belichick noted Stevenson’s improved pass-catching skills during training camp.

 

“Rhamondre’s done a really good job improving his pass game skills, starting with blitz pickup and protection,” Bill Belichick said via Sophie Weller of Mass Live. “Route running — he’s got good hands, catching the ball’s never really been an issue. It’s setting up defenders, recognizing coverages, when to sit down, when to break, depending on what the rest of the pattern is, how to maximize the distribution on the pattern.”

 

Stevenson caught 14 of 18 passes as a rookie for 123 yards. Belichick said the back gaining experience would help him understand his role coming out of the backfield.

 

“The back’s always kind of the last person in the pattern for flare control,” Belichick said. “So, whatever the rest of the players are running, the back is generally responsible for filling in — being in the right spot so the quarterback has an outlet. … That comes a lot with experience.”

 

Stevenson is projected to split carries with Damien Harris this season. With the Pats now replacing White’s pass-catching production, Stevenson could see more third-down snaps. Ty Montgomery, an RB/WR, and rookie Pierre Strong are also candidates to take some of the pass-down reps.

 

One key will be Stevenson’s improved blocking. Like most rookies, picking up blitzes was a learning process, but he improved in that area down the stretch and into camp this season.

 

“But he’s done a good job of, again, gaining experience and all that,” Belichick said. “He’s way better than he was last year and he understands that’s an important part of his game. It’s not just carrying the ball, it’s all things that go with the passing game. So, he’s done a great job.”

 

If Stevenson proves he can be a weapon in both the run and pass, he could see a significant increase in reps in a Patriots backfield known for its timeshares.

 

NEW YORK JETS

QB ZACH WILSON’s knee was what they thought it was and he has a chance to play the regular season opener.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson underwent successful knee surgery on Tuesday.

 

NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported that Wilson is recovering nicely and still has an outside shot to play in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens, per a source informed of the situation.

 

There were no surprises during surgery, Rapoport added.

 

Wilson went down Friday during the Jets’ preseason game versus the Philadelphia Eagles with a non-contact injury. He was diagnosed with a bone bruise and a meniscus tear, requiring arthroscopic surgery. The initial timeline was a 2-to-4 week recovery period, barring any unforeseen issues during surgery.

 

With Wilson coming out clean following the meniscus trim, he still has a chance to return before the season kicks off. Of course, the Jets will be cautious with their young QB until he’s 100 percent.

 

In the meantime, Joe Flacco will lead the first-team offense in Wilson’s stead. The veteran impressed reporters in practice on Tuesday, with several suggesting it was the best the offense has looked all offseason.

 

If Wilson isn’t fully recovered for Week 1, Flacco would be in line to start against his former Ravens squad.

 

In other Jets news, the team officially placed offensive tackle Mekhi Becton on injured reserve on Tuesday, officially ending his season. Becton suffered a fractured kneecap earlier this month and will undergo surgery within the week, per Rapoport.

 

THIS AND THAT

 

OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Josh Edwards of CBSSports.com looks at who might be the top offensive rookies:

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Before diving into the favorites and sleepers to win the award, it is important to review the trends and history. Since 2010, quarterbacks have won the Associated Press’ award six of 12 years. Running backs have won four times over the same time period. Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase was the first wide receiver to win the award since Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014. Until Los Angeles’ Justin Herbert in 2021, an AFC player had not won Offensive Rookie of the Year since 2006; now the conference has won the last two.

 

Here are the favorites, as of Tuesday afternoon, according to Caesars Sportsbook:

 

Steelers QB Kenny Pickett: +800

Jets RB Breece Hall: +900

Falcons WR Drake London: +1000

Titans WR Treylon Burks: +1000

Jets WR Garrett Wilson: +1200

Steelers WR George Pickens: +1200

Saints WR Chris Olave: +1200

 

A year ago, most would have expected a quarterback to win Rookie of the Year, but New England’s Mac Jones was the only one in the conversation. Fast forward to 2022 and the race is wide open on the offensive side of the ball. The odds of a wide receiver winning the award have increased given the current state of the league. Comparatively, the odds for a running back are decreasing unless that player is equally productive in the pass game.

 

Pickett has to be viewed as the favorite based on the historical context of the award. The chances of him seeing that through diminish immensely if Pittsburgh rolls with Mitchell Trubisky or Mason Rudolph early in the season. London and Burks are going to be force fed targets because there are few obstacles on the roster. Will there be enough team success to strengthen their respective arguments? It is easy to construct a case against any of the favorites. For that reason, there may be more value in sprinkling on a few long shots.

 

Chiefs wide receiver Skyy Moore (+1400) is a player that piques interest beyond that initial group. After losing Tyreek Hill, Moore fills that yards after the catch role for Patrick Mahomes. Two long shots that could be worth monitoring are Browns wide receiver David Bell (+3000) and Giants wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson (+6000). Cleveland has few options at wide receiver beyond Amari Cooper; targets have to go somewhere. There is a world where Bell is a volume pass catcher for that offense, especially after the season-ending injury to Jakeem Grant. As for Robinson, it is difficult to shake the feeling that New York drafted him with a specific plan in mind. They have other options at wide receiver but a point could be made with the Robinson selection.

For what it’s worth, the DB thinks Saints WR CHRIS OLAVE is going to pile up some huge numbers in 2022.

 

2023 DRAFT

Todd McShay of ESPN.com offers his top 50 for the 2023 draft.  We have the top 30 below, the whole thing is here:

I ranked my early top 50 prospects for the 2023 class as we head into the college season. That includes four quarterbacks who I think can be NFL starters, but we get things going with a pair of elite defenders. I also included position rankings for 200 players, and you can jump there to see how the best at each spot stack up. Let’s dive in, starting with a standout edge rusher.

 

Note: Underclassmen are marked with an asterisk.

 

1. Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama*

HT: 6-foot-4 | WT: 243 pounds | Grade: 97

Anderson used his excellent speed, great flexibility, explosive first step and powerful hands to post 17.5 sacks, 79 pressures, 125 tackles and 34.5 tackles for loss last season — all of which at least tied for No. 1 in the country. He locates the ball in a flash and then has a unique combination of redirect quickness and closing burst to capitalize. Anderson frequently overpowers blockers, and there aren’t enough good things to say about his motor and instincts for the game. Against the run, he excels at stacking, locating, disengaging and pursuing relentlessly.

 

2. Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia*

HT: 6-3 | WT: 310 | Grade: 95

Carter is far more disruptive than his stats — 45 tackles, three sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss in 2021 — indicate. He fires off the ball with an explosive first step, and he shows very good torso flexibility and excellent strength to advance his pass rush while engaged. He has every tool in the box necessary to emerge as a top-tier NFL pass-rusher early in his career. Against the run, Carter is strong, active and disciplined. He rarely gets stalemated in one-on-one situations, and he’s even strong/flexible enough to hold up against some double-teams.

 

3. C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State*

HT: 6-3 | WT: 215 | Grade: 95

Stroud is my QB1 to begin the season thanks in part to excellent instincts, smooth delivery, strong arm and solid decision-making. He already sees the entire field at an NFL level and trusts his fast eyes. While his ball placement is a bit inconsistent at times, he has a large catalog of remarkably accurate throws under pressure. His touch and his timing are outstanding; Stroud completed 71.9% of his passes last season (fourth in the FBS) for 4,435 yards (fifth), 44 touchdowns (third) and only six interceptions.

 

4. Bryce Young, QB, Alabama*

HT: 6-1 | WT: 194 | Grade: 94

Young completed 66.9% of his throws last season for 4,872 yards (second in the country), 47 touchdowns (second) and seven interceptions. He is a fast processor, and he has a quick release, but he’s still learning how to maneuver in the pocket to find clearer passing windows — a skill he will need in the NFL at his size. Young shows very good ball placement and touch on the perimeter on all three levels, and he knows how to lead receivers to yards after the catch, but his accuracy on anticipation throws over the middle could be more consistent. No moment is too big for him, and his advanced understanding of the QB position really stands out.

 

5. Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia

HT: 6-3 | WT: 235 | Grade: 94

Smith has very good closing burst to the quarterback and quick hands, but he is still very unpolished with his pass-rush moves. He frequently lacks a plan and tries to win solely with his outstanding speed, though he does have an effective outside-in move and is able to occasionally get offensive tackles off-balance with stop-start moves. Smith is a menacing run defender, though. He creates a lot of havoc with how quickly he penetrates the backfield, and while he lacks size, he more than makes up for it with excellent leverage and hand placement. He sets a hard edge, has snappy hands to disengage quickly and shows excellent change-of-direction quickness. He registered 52 tackles (10.0 for loss) and 3.5 sacks in 2021.

 

6. Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU*

HT: 6-1 | WT: 190 | Grade: 93

Boutte lines up at all three receiver spots in LSU’s offense, and he is sudden and explosive in all his movements. He consistently generates separation with his sharp cutting ability, outstanding speed and great acceleration. Then Boutte attacks the football aggressively in the air with confident and strong hands. He shows great focus, times his jumps well and can contort his body in the air. He is a big-time vertical threat who chews up cushion in a flash, but Boutte is also smooth and elusive after the catch. In 2021, he picked up 509 yards and nine touchdowns on 38 catches after missing most of the season with a leg injury.

 

7. Jordan Addison, WR, USC*

HT: 6-1 | WT: 175 | Grade: 91

Addison transferred from Pittsburgh to USC in the spring after finishing in the nation’s top six in receptions (100), receiving yards (1,593) and receiving TDs (17) last season. He has the second gear to stretch the field and wins 50-50 balls downfield despite a slight frame. He’s also an instinctive open-field runner with good burst, and he flashes good contact balance for his size. Addison does drop some balls he should catch, and he’s not a nuanced or polished route runner, but he consistently separates thanks to his burst and fluidity. Most of his production has come when he works out of the slot, raising some concerns about his ability to get off press coverage at the NFL level.

 

8. Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas*

HT: 6-1 | WT: 214 | Grade: 91

Robinson is a patient runner with quick feet and excellent burst through the hole. He is a big back who is difficult to get on the ground — his 81 forced missed tackles ranked sixth in the FBS last season — thanks to outstanding contact balance. He falls forward at the end of runs, and he has the strength to push the pile. Robinson ran for 1,127 yards and 11 touchdowns last season, and he has averaged 6.5 yards per carry over his two seasons. He’s also an effective route runner and displays soft hands in the pass game.

 

9. Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame*

HT: 6-4 | WT: 251 | Grade: 91

Mayer’s best traits are his toughness and strength after the catch. He’s a bulldozer with the ball in his hands, and he generates yards by breaking tackles and carrying defenders — 365 of his 840 yards last season came after the catch. Mayer shows a lot of route-running savvy in setting up defenders at the top of the stem and locating soft spots in zone. He does a very good job adjusting to the ball outside his frame, and he shows strong hands in traffic and on contested catches, helping him score seven TDs in 2021. Mayer also has an edge as a blocker, though his technique is still a work in progress.

 

10. Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson*

HT: 6-5 | WT: 275 | Grade: 91

Murphy has the strength and length to stack and shed offensive tackles defending the run, but there is some room for improvement locating the ball and getting off blocks in time to make the play. As a pass-rusher, he can drive back tackles and rip under their inside arms to power upfield, helping him post 7.5 sacks last season. Murphy has the bend and closing burst to win with speed off the edge, and his strength, quickness and active hands make him a problem when he kicks inside. But he doesn’t always seem to have a plan or counter ready, and his tape is a little inconsistent.

 

11. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State*

HT: 6-1 | WT: 197 | Grade: 90

Smith-Njigba is extremely agile with precise route-running skills, frequently gaining separation with his acceleration. He shows soft hands and very good body control, often snatching balls thrown outside of his frame, but I’ve seen some focus drops on tape. He does a good job tracking the deep ball and makes difficult over-the-shoulder catches downfield. Smith-Njigba also has the ability to string multiple cuts together to make multiple defenders miss in space. His 1,606 receiving yards were third in the country last season, and his performance against Utah in the Rose Bowl — 15 catches, 347 yards and three TDs — drew national attention.

 

12. Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia*

HT: 6-2 | WT: 205 | Grade: 90

A former sprinter in high school, Ringo can match speed with any vertical route and does an excellent job of contesting jump balls. However, his route recognition and eye discipline are still works in progress, and he has tight hips, which lead to redirection slowness and allows for too much separation surrendered to quicker receivers. Ringo has solid ball skills and the elite length to bat down passes when reaching around receivers. Last season, he hauled in two interceptions and allowed just 37% of opponent completions while in coverage (13th-best in the nation). In run support, he keeps blockers off his frame and lassos ball carriers in space.

 

13. Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson*

HT: 6-5 | WT: 300 | Grade: 90

Bresee is a dominant run defender with the upper-body strength to stack and shed. He has the quick hands and feet to slip and split blockers. And Bresee is effective running stunts, tracks the quarterback well and gets his hands up in passing lanes. He had a torn ACL in 2021, but he has 43 tackles, 5.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss over 16 games since 2020.

 

14. Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State*

HT: 6-6 | WT: 315 | Grade: 90

Johnson started all 13 games at guard in 2021 but is moving to left tackle in 2022. His footwork and hand placement has really improved, and he has a quick set with balance. When he lands his punch, it jars defensive linemen. He’s an easy mover when mirroring and sliding, and a natural knee-bender with excellent lower-body flexibility. He has allowed only 6 pressures and 2 sacks over 452 career pass-block snaps. As a run blocker, Johnson fires out of his stance quickly and shows very good mobility.

 

15. Isaiah Foskey, DE, Notre Dame*

HT: 6-5 | WT: 260 | Grade: 90

Foskey has a quick first step and does a good job of using length and momentum to get offensive tackles on their heels, and he excels at chopping the ball loose when he gets home as a pass-rusher. He had five forced fumbles last year, tied for second most in the FBS. However, he lacks ideal torso flexibility, and if he can’t win with pure strength, he struggles at times to advance his rush while engaged. Foskey finished the 2021 season with 11.0 sacks, tied for 11th. Against the run, he has the length to lock out and locate the ball, and he does an above-average job of disengaging.

 

16. Arik Gilbert, TE, Georgia*

HT: 6-5 | WT: 248 | Grade: 90

Gilbert began his career at LSU before transferring first to Florida and then to Georgia, and he last caught a pass in 2020. He’s smooth and sudden, but he’s a raw route runner who relies purely on his great size and speed to separate. He does a great job of high-pointing the ball and securing it in traffic, and he shows impressive body control to adjust to passes outside of his frame — though he has too many drops. Gilbert has the speed to threaten vertically and is a strong runner after the catch. And he excels as a run blocker, consistently getting his hands inside, locking out and driving defenders off the line of scrimmage.

 

17. Andre Carter II, OLB, Army*

HT: 6-7 | WT: 250 | Grade: 89

Carter’s 15.5 sacks trailed only Anderson in the FBS last season, and he got pressure on 14.9% of his pass rushes (12th-best). He struggles to keep his hips down and has some problems generating speed to power, but he moves well for his size. He’s also a disruptive run defender who flashes the ability to slip blocks and shoot gaps, and he holds his ground when teams run at him.

 

18. Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina*

HT: 6-1 | WT: 187 | Grade: 89

A versatile defensive back with experience on the boundary, at nickel and as a safety, Smith is highly instinctive and frequently gets early jumps by reading quarterbacks’ eyes, and he shows excellent foot quickness and fluid hips. He is a ballhawk with excellent vertical leap, length and soft hands, but he gets too handsy at the top of receivers’ stems. He has five interceptions over the past two seasons, and his 11 pass breakups tied for 19th in the country last year. Smith is also aggressive and physical in run support, and he shows impressive initial snap as a tackler.

 

19. Jordan Battle, S, Alabama

HT: 6-1 | WT: 210 | Grade: 89

In coverage, Battle has a quick pedal and is an easy mover. He shows good instincts and plays with very good balance and body control. His closing burst when the ball is in the air jumps out on tape. Against the run, he plays bigger than his size and flies to the football. Battle does a very good job of generating power in the short area, he takes good angles and he does a really good job of taking on and disengaging from blocks. In 2021, Battle had 51 tackles, 3 interceptions and 2 defensive TDs.

 

20. Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern*

HT: 6-4 | WT: 294 | Grade: 89

Skoronski started all 21 games at left tackle during his first two seasons at Northwestern but has versatility along the line. He’s sudden with elite mirror-slide quickness and excellent quickness in his set. He shows great patience and does a great job generating leverage with his hand placement. Skoronski shows excellent awareness when working against stunts and twists, too. As a run-blocker, he takes excellent angles, has great range and is fundamentally sound. He’s not overpowering but almost always gets into great position, stuns with initial contact and has enough technique and lower-body flexibility to get movement with good torque.

 

21. Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

HT: 6-3 | WT: 232 | Grade: 89

A former backup at Penn State, Levis now operates a quick-paced, quick-hitting offense at Kentucky where his fast decision-making fits perfectly. He has a relatively quick release and a strong arm — the ball jumps off his hand with velocity. Levis is light on his feet and shows good agility eluding the rush, knowing when to climb or slide to extend. And while he hangs tough in the pocket, he also knows when to tuck the ball and run. But I’d like to see him get more reps making full-field progression reads and downfield anticipatory throws. Levis threw for 2,826 yards, 24 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and he added 376 rushing yards and another nine scores on the ground.

 

22. Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin

HT: 6-4 | WT: 317 | Grade: 89

A former standout high school wrestler, Benton has an intriguing combination of size and power, and he plays with great leverage. He is still improving his quickness when disengaging from blocks, but he moves well once he frees up and pursues ball carriers. He has a chance to rise over the course of the season if his pass rushing takes the next step. Benton had just 2.5 sacks last year.

 

23. Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State*

HT: 6-2 | WT: 192 | Grade: 88

Porter is instinctive, and he excels in press-man while also showing the recognition skills necessary for zone coverage. He has fast eyes when diagnosing screens and runs, and he uses his length, solid technique and physicality to reroute receivers off the line of scrimmage. He plays with very good body control, but he does have some tightness and tends to get handsy when he feels himself getting out of phase. He recorded 44 tackles, four pass breakups and an interception last season.

 

24. Noah Sewell, ILB, Oregon*

HT: 6-3 | WT: 251 | Grade: 88

The brother of recent high draft pick Penei Sewell, Noah Sewell has the active hands to slip blocks and the upper-body strength to stack blockers. But he struggles to recover when he takes a poor angle, and he’s a touch inconsistent as an open-field tackler. Noah Sewell reads the quarterback and breaks on the ball well in underneath zone, has the speed to carry tight ends down the seam and is competitive matching up with running backs out of the backfield. His 112 tackles were 17th in the FBS last season, and he also had 8.5 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks, 6 pass breakups and a pick.

 

25. BJ Ojulari, OLB, LSU*

HT: 6-3 | WT: 244 | Grade: 88

Ojulari shows great take-off burst and good bend, and he puts a lot of pressure on opposing offensive tackles with his change-of-direction suddenness. But his speed-to-power moves frequently stall, and he needs to improve his lower-body strength to drive opponents back into the pocket. Against the run, Ojulari has great range, but his pads rise too quickly, and he lacks the lower-body strength to consistently set a hard edge. Ojulari had 7.0 sacks in 2021, and his 45 pressures ranked 19th in the nation.

 

26. Tyler Van Dyke, QB, Miami (Florida)*

HT: 6-4 | WT: 224 | Grade: 88

With a strong arm and good pocket mobility, Van Dyke leads receivers to yards after the catch when he has a clear pre-snap read and gets the ball out in rhythm. He keeps his eyes downfield as he climbs the pocket to avoid pressure, and he flashes the ability to adjust his release point and make impressive off-platform throws. But Van Dyke misses within the strike zone too often over the middle and is inconsistent throwing outside the hashes. His touch and timing on downfield passes need to get better, and I’d like to see him speed up his decision-making. His 80.1 QBR was 11th best last season, as he piled up 2,931 passing yards, 25 TDs and six interceptions in 10 games (nine starts).

 

27. Jermaine Burton, WR, Alabama*

HT: 6-1 | WT: 200 | Grade: 87

After catching 26 balls for 497 yards and five touchdowns with Georgia last season, Burton transferred to Alabama. He is primarily an outside receiver who accelerates quickly and does a good job timing his routes, and he is at his best in the quick and vertical games. Burton still needs some polish as an intermediate route runner, but he is a speedster who shows a true second gear when tracking the ball vertically. He can pluck away from his frame and makes some very difficult contested catches, but he needs more consistency in high-pointing the ball.

 

28. Tyrique Stevenson, CB, Miami (FL)*

HT: 6-1 | WT: 214 | Grade: 87

Stevenson is a scheme-versatile corner with the speed to turn and run with receivers. He shows good balance and burst getting out of breaks, and he recovers well. He reads the quarterback, plays the ball — not the man — and shows a good feel for route combinations in zone looks. But while Stevenson has the frame and length to compete for 50-50 balls, he’s not a ballhawk (one interception in 2021). The biggest concern is his tackling, as he frequently fails to wrap up. He had 40 tackles last season, but he missed 10.

 

29. John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota

HT: 6-4 | WT: 320 | Grade: 86

Schmitz started four games in 2019, six games in 2020 and all 13 games in 2021, and he has never given up a sack. He has short-area suddenness and a lot of power at the point of attack, but his mirror-and-slide quickness and fluidity are average at best. He’s an effective zone blocker, and once he latches on, his overwhelming strength and nasty demeanor allow him to finish at an exceptionally high rate.

 

30. Ali Gaye, DE, LSU

HT: 6-6 | WT: 250 | Grade: 86

A native of Gambia, Gaye moved to the United States at age 12 and didn’t start playing football until eighth grade. He has a quick first step to put pressure on opposing offensive tackles and long arms to keep blockers off his pads. He should continue to improve his effectiveness on speed-to-power moves with increased strength and experience. Limited to four starts last season because of an upper-body injury, Gaye had 2.5 sacks. Against the run, Gaye is at his best in backside pursuit or when he’s uncovered and can flat-out chase.