The Daily Briefing Wednesday, August 19, 2020
AROUND THE NFLDaily Briefing NFC EAST
DALLAS The Cowboys didn’t want DL GERALD McCOY sitting around in their injured reserve list. Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:
The Cowboys have released defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, the team announced.
Nick Eatman of the team website reports the Cowboys “had an injury waiver on McCoy’s right quadriceps and chose to release him, but have hopes of re-signing him next year when he’s healthy.”
McCoy signed a three-year, $18.3 million contract this offseason. The move takes the team off the hook for McCoy’s $3.25 million in base salary and roster bonuses this season. He will keep his $3 million signing bonus.
The right quadriceps was specified in the contract language as Mike Garafolo of NFL Media tweeted.
McCoy, 32, tore his quadriceps tendon in the first padded practice Monday. He underwent surgery Tuesday, according to Michael Gehlken of the Dallas Morning News, and McCoy will miss the 2020 season.
McCoy spent the first nine seasons of his career in Tampa after the Bucs made him the third overall choice. He missed 21 games with the Bucs, including 10 in 2011. McCoy played all 16 games with Carolina last season.
WASHINGTON Ex Redskins RB Derrius Guice doesn’t only hit women if two LSU co-eds are to be believed with their acquisations. Chris Cwik of YahooSports.com:
Two former LSU students say they were raped by former Washington Football Team running back Derrius Guice while he was a freshman at LSU, according to USA Today.
The two women claim both incidents were reported to officials at the school, including coaches. It does not appear, however, that LSU investigated either accusation, according to USA Today. Under Title IX rules — which were in place at the time of the alleged rapes — universities are required to investigate sexual assault claims.
Guice, 23, was released by Washington on Aug. 7 after a domestic violence arrest. Earlier that day, Guice turned himself in on three charges of assault and battery, one count of destruction of property and a felony count of strangulation.
USA Today says it began reporting on its story Aug. 3, four days before Guice was arrested. USA Today also says it interviewed one of the women in January regarding Guice’s alleged assault. The woman also documented her encounter with Guice in June as part of a lawsuit against the NCAA.
One of the alleged victims was a former tennis player at LSU. She claims she was raped by Guice after the two met at a bar. Guice bought the woman multiple shots. She told USA Today she was “extremely” intoxicated to the point where she was “way too drunk to give consent in the first place.”
Guice drove the woman home and then texted the woman about coming to her apartment. The woman agreed, saying she told Guice nothing was going to happen. She says she remembered Guice forcing her to perform oral and vaginal sex.
The woman — who said she had been abusing alcohol and prescription drugs before meeting Guice — started drinking more after the alleged rape and eventually checked herself into rehab. While in rehab, the woman informed a counselor about the alleged assault by Guice. An employee at the rehab center reportedly informed LSU.
The woman’s father, who also knew about the assault, claims he approached Julia Sell, LSU’s head woman’s tennis coach, to inform Sell about Guice’s reported rape. The woman’s father claims Sell said, “I don’t believe her,” referring to the alleged victim.
The former tennis player met with a Washington Football Team attorney regarding the alleged rape Aug. 6. The two spoke for three and a half hours. The following day, Guice was arrested and released by the team. The Washington Football Team said it is no longer investigating the issue since Guice is not a member of the organization.
The other victim says she was raped by Guice while sleeping in her bedroom. The woman reportedly hosted a party in her apartment, which was attended by Guice and other football players. The woman says she eventually went into her room and shut the door to go to sleep. When she woke up, the woman said she knew she had been assaulted. She believed Guice assaulted her because he put his number into her phone. Other players on the LSU football team said Guice told them he had sex with the woman.
The woman informed a friend — a diver at LSU — of the assault. The diver reported the assault to her coach, who reported it to LSU officials. The woman who says she was raped by Guice says she received an email from LSU saying the university was aware of the incident and that the woman could get treatment at the university health center.
When a school nurse asked whether the woman would file a complaint against Guice, the woman said she was “scared to go forward with it because he was so violent.” The woman claims the nurse said the allegations “probably would get pushed under the rug” considering Guice’s status at LSU.
The woman was dating an LSU football recruit at the time, though he was not present at the party. He redshirted with the LSU football team as a freshman, but steered clear of Guice. According to USA Today, the former LSU redshirt freshman claims head coach Ed Orgeron approached the player about a year after the alleged assault to tell him he shouldn’t be bothered by Guice sleeping with his girlfriend. The player claims Orgeron told him, “everybody’s girlfriend sleeps with other people.”
Orgeron did not respond to USA Today’s request for comment.
Once the woman made it clear she did not consent to sex with Guice, she claims Guice got violent. Guice allegedly confronted the woman while she was at a friend’s apartment. The woman claims Guice went off, telling the woman she doesn’t know Guice and threatening to get his gun.
The woman got into drugs and was eventually arrested. While in rehab, the woman wrote a letter to Guice, which she shared with USA Today. While the letter doesn’t mention Guice’s name specifically, it asks, “I wonder what the media would say if they knew the real monster you are.”
When the woman heard Guice was arrested, she told USA Today, “Wow, they finally got him. They finally caught him.”
It sure seems like a lot of NFL teams knew that Guice was a bad apple. This from Saturday Down South two years ago:
Former LSU RB Derrius Guice is the NFL Draft’s biggest faller midway through the second round.
In fact, three former SEC RBs have been drafted, but Guice is nowhere to be found yet. Sony Michel was drafted in the first round, while Nick Chubb and Kerryon Johnson were drafted in the second round.
Analyst Todd McShay attempted to explain why Guice was falling Friday night on ESPN.
“He had a very poor pre-draft process in terms of interviews and not being where he should at the times he should be being late to meetings,” McShay said on ESPN. “I’ve talked to a lot of general managers who are concerned about accountability. This young man has gone through a lot in his life. You understand what he’s dealing with. He had to overcome a lot to get to where he is. He’s a late first-round talent. He’s falling a bit, but hopefully he’ll get it straight in the NFL.”
The NFL Network’s Mike Mayock also said Guice had issues showing up on time recently. During a recent appearance on Barstool Sports’ Pardon My Take podcast, Mike Mayock was asked directly what were the issues surrounding Guice. He basically gave a non-answer, stating Guice had issues showing up for things. He finalized that thought with, “I’ll leave it at that.”
He went 59th overall.
This:
Guice found himself in a small controversy following his pre-draft meetings, when he said in an interview with SiriusXM Satellite Radio that a team had asked if he was gay in a meeting. The LSU star also indicated that another team inquired about if his mother “sells herself.” But a subsequent investigation by the NFL, which included a review of the teams that interviewed Guice, the rusher and his agent, “did not confirm that any club made the reported inquiries.”
NFC WEST
ARIZONA WR DeANDRE HOPKINS is back at Cardinals practice. Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:
The reason for wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins‘ absence from Cardinals practice in recent days created some conversation, but it shouldn’t continue on Wednesday.
According to multiple reports, Hopkins is back on the practice field in full pads for Wednesday’s session in Arizona.
Hopkins’ absence was attributed to a hamstring injury and head coach Kliff Kingsbury said on Monday that the hope was that he’d be back soon. Hopkins’ past desire for a new contract led some to wonder if Hopkins might be sitting out to create contract leverage by not practicing, but the wideout said that was not the case.
Wednesday’s development supports that stance and Hopkins’ continued presence on the practice field will bode well for the immediate future of the Cardinals Offense.
AFC NORTH
CINCINNATI A good first day in pads for QB JOE BURROW. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
The pads went on at Bengals camp on Tuesday and that meant a new experience for quarterback Joe Burrow.
Burrow said he felt he’d “like to play better” than he did in the session, but that it felt good to be in pads for the first time since he left LSU. He also made it clear that any misgivings he had about his performance in Tuesday’s practice had nothing to do with his overall feel about how things are coming together for his rookie season.
“Very confident. I feel very comfortable with the offense right now. I feel very comfortable with my guys,” Burrow said. “I think we’re going to be pretty good on offense. I’m excited more so than nervous.”
Burrow was asked if he was surprised that he felt that way at this point in his career.
“Absolutely not,” Burrow said. “Have you ever heard anything else about me about being nervous?”
The Bengals likely wouldn’t have taken Burrow first overall if they thought he’d fade in the face of the pressure he’ll face in the early part of his career. With less than a month to go before the Bengals face the Chargers, it won’t be long before we see if Burrow’s actions match his words.
AFC EAST
NEW ENGLAND Could Bill Belichick mix and match QBs CAM NEWTON and JARRETT STIDHAM? Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
With no preseason games and no joint practices, no NFL coach will get a chance to see how his players will perform against other teams until the regular season begins. For some coaches, this could mean allowing training-camp competitions to continue into September.
In New England, it could mean using multiple quarterbacks.
Mike Reiss of ESPN.com has floated the possibility of a quarterback platoon, and coach Bill Belichick didn’t rule out using multiple quarterbacks when meeting with reporters on Wednesday.
“Yeah, it might,” Belichick said regarding whether a quarterback platoon would benefit the team. “Look, I always say I’ll do what I think is best for the team, what gives us the best chance to win. Whatever that is, I would certainly consider that. If it’s run an unbalanced line or double-unbalanced line or 23 personnel or whatever it is. If it helps us win, then I would consider anything.”
Winning doesn’t happen only in September. The broader objective is to win as many games from start to finish of the season. If using two quarterbacks in September could better position the team to win more games in October, November, December, and January, why not do it?
Also, it’s possible that Belichick’s refusal to give the job to 2015 NFL MVP Cam Newton could be part of the effort to fully indoctrinate him into the Patriot Way. Belichick acknowledged that, eventually, one of the three quarterbacks will need to get the bulk of the reps in advance of Week One against the Dolphins. For now, however, that’s not the case.
“Well, obviously, there’s some point where that’s going to happen,” Belichick said. “But, right now, we want to try to, like I said, give everybody an opportunity to get the basics, and we’re really doing that at all the positions. I mean, everybody’s rotating through and we’re trying to give everybody an opportunity to run the basic plays, get the basic fundamentals down. Yeah, of course at some point, we’ll have to not equalize the reps — I mean, that’s obvious — but we’re not there now.”
Perhaps the better explanation is that the Patriots are “not there now” when it comes to ensuring that Newton will deal with adversity better than he did in Carolina, a place where some believe he was coddled. Surely, he’s a better option than Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer. But being better than them isn’t nearly good enough; if the Patriots are going to contend at a high level this year, Newton needs to get back to the level at which we’ve seen him in the past. This sense of uncertainty regarding the starting quarterback position in New England could be part of that effort.
THIS AND THAT
COPING WITH CORONA One week after the secretive decision to cancel football, the vast majority of those actually associated with Big Ten Football remain outraged – players, parents, coaches and fans. The process and reasoning used for the devastating decree remains shrouded in mystery and the conference has silenced itself in “science” and arrogance.
Pat Forde, a distinguished, connected and usually establishment writer from SI.com, is frustrated with the Big Ten’s intransigence.
Show us your work, Big Ten.
With your conference’s credibility burning down and league members holding the matches that lit the fire, the time has come for maximum transparency. From the cranky coaches to the parent letters to the player petition to the new round of administrative molotov cocktails Monday, you have some ‘splaining to do.
Tell us something. Check that; tell us everything.
Tell us how every aspect of the Aug. 11 decision to call off fall sports went down. Tell us what factors were weighed, and which ones weighed most. Show us which medical data was discussed. Details and specifics, please. No banal generalities.
The Pac-12, which has been a boiling kettle of dysfunction for years, managed to reach the same decision with none of the drama—in part because they were very public about their medical information. When the Pac-12 is making you look bad, you look bad.
Then take the next step, Big Ten. Tell us what the vote was by the league’s university presidents and chancellors. Or if there was a vote.
A startling new blaze began Monday afternoon when Penn State athletic director Sandy Barbour told the media on a Zoom call, “It is unclear to me whether or not there was a vote. No one’s ever told me there was. I just don’t know whether there actually was a vote by the chancellors and presidents.” While everyone was recoiling from that blast, Minneapolis Fox Sports 9 reporter Jeff Wald tweeted that Minnesota president Joan Gabel “wouldn’t call it a vote, per se,” last week. Wald said Gabel referred to it is “a deliberative process where we came to a decision together.”
If there was no vote, why the hell not? Was this a 14-president decision or a one-man commissioner decision? (Emails to the Big Ten office asking for further information on the vote/non-vote were not returned right away Monday.)
This explanation deserves more than just a vote total, by the way. Tell us the individual vote by institution. If the people running these huge and prestigious universities are too timorous to put their name behind their vote, they should be ashamed. If they went with the old bureaucratic semantic dodge of not taking a formal vote while very much counting “informal” votes, they should also be ashamed.
This isn’t a jury deciding a murder verdict that puts someone in prison for life; it’s a bunch of well-compensated presidents deciding whether or not to play football. Show some backbone. Stand behind a decision.
We know any vote/non-vote wasn’t unanimous, because commissioner Kevin Warren acknowledged as much in a generally evasive interview with Big Ten Network anchor Dave Revsine last week. On the day before the decision was announced, Dan Patrick said on his radio show that the vote was 12–2 not to play, with Nebraska and Iowa in opposition. Subsequent chatter has said the vote was 8–6, but Chicago Tribune reporter Teddy Greenstein tweeted this week that a league source told him that alleged vote total was “ridiculous.”
That’s a lot of conflicting information. Clear that up for us, Big Ten. And for yourself.
The old saying about hiding information from the public is that sunlight is the best disinfectant, and you, Big Ten, suddenly need a massive fumigation. The amazing part of it is how much the sludge is building up from the inside. Nobody is trying too terribly hard to play nice.
Before you even announced your decision, coaches were publicly applying pressure. Nebraska coach Scott Frost was talking about playing a schedule outside the conference. Then Ohio State coach Ryan Day said, “We cannot cancel the season right now, we have to at the least postpone it and give us some time to keep reevaluating everything that is going on.” James Franklin of Penn State chimed in as well.
When the vote didn’t go their way, the complaining continued from various places around the league. Attorney Tom Mars put together an “Action Plan” for league coaches detailing how schools might try to overturn the NCAA waiver ban and regain the season. Then the parents from several teams started their helicopter assault on the league, firing off letters to the commissioner asking for explanations and a chance to play. Then Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields, best player in the conference, put together a petition that’s garnered hundreds of thousands of signatures. On the same day, the news broke about Saliva/Direct, a potential testing breakthrough that reopened debate about whether your controversial cancellation came too soon.
The volume of open discontent has been fairly breathtaking, and seemingly indicative that Warren wasn’t prepared for the amount of eggs that would be broken. The first-year commissioner was dealt a ridiculously difficult hand, and he was admirably consistent in saying all along that the league might well not play this year.
Then it happened, and everyone flipped out. And since then his job has become much more difficult.
Warren did not articulate the reasons for the fall cancelation well on Aug. 11, and since then has been unsuccessful at getting the conference to coalesce around that decision. Day has continued to tweet “#Fight” over the past couple of days, alluding to playing in the fall, including once Monday afternoon in support of Fields’s petition. That was followed up by a tweet from Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith that said, “LOVE MY COACH!!!”
Smith is as entrenched and respected as any athletic director in the country. He’s also been a reliable part of the NCAA deliberative body, serving on countless committees over the years. He is, in many ways, The Establishment. And if The Establishment is this comfortable with publicly stoking conflict, that’s a problem for Warren.
Jim Delany, Warren’s predecessor, very likely would have had the presidents out doing his P.R. work for him with the media and on campus. But few of those university leaders are stepping in front of the stuff being hurled from all directions at the new commissioner. It’s likely that he simply hasn’t had the time yet to develop relationships and alliances in those areas; it might also be indicative that the presidents didn’t like the way Warren handled this huge decision.
(Minnesota has been one of the islands of support in recent days for Warren. Coach P.J. Fleck has said he understands the decision, and that all 30 players he asked about it agreed. Quarterback Tanner Morgan told The Athletic Monday, “I commend them for being the conference that actually put player health and safety first, like they said all along.”)
Parent letters and petitions are unlikely to change anyone’s mind at the top of the Big Ten food chain. Tom Mars’s attempt to overturn the NCAA transfer waiver ban is a long shot at best. Warren and the conference can ride this storm out without having to go back on anything.
But if they want to make people understand this decision, show us the work that went into it. Give us the facts. Tell us the vote. Overshare. Your credibility is at stake, Big Ten. Speak up.
On Tuesday night came a report that a Gang of Six teams, organized by Ohio State, are plotting to defy the conference edict and go rogue.
We also have been wondering if Commissioner Kevin Warren was the hapless fall guy for anti-football presidents – or whether or not, shockingly, the Commissioner was the one steering the crippling decision. This from Patrick Murphy of 247Sports.com says it was Warren who was the driving force in the decision and details the attempts of arguably the conference’s six best programs to play:
According to longtime college football writer Jeff Snook, who has a degree from Ohio State and covered the Buckeyes for years, the hope for the Scarlet and Gray to play in the fall is not dead, at least not yet around the Woody Hayes Athletic Center. Snook, who is retired and works for no outlet but remains well connected around Ohio State and college football, reported on Tuesday night that, according to sources, Smith and the Buckeyes still hope for a 10-game season in 2020 and are trying to convince five other Big Ten programs to join in this mini-season.
From Snook’s report:
In this proposed format, each team would play the other five Big Ten teams who are participating twice — once at home and once on the road, beginning on either Sept. 26 or Oct. 3. The season would conclude by mid-December and there would no Big Ten title game in Indianapolis.
As of Tuesday night, the source claimed that Penn State President Eric Barron, Nebraska President Walter “Ted” Carter and Iowa President Bruce Harreld are on board with the new plan. The group hopes to convince two other universities, notably the University of Wisconsin and the University of Michigan, to join them.
“They really need to flip Wisconsin and Michigan to get to six schools and make this thing work,” the source said. “And they have only so much time to do it. They need to make progress and get it done in the next seven to 10 days.”
Wisconsin Athletic Director Barry Alvarez, who coached the Badgers from 1990-2005, is a strong advocate for the plan but has yet to convince UW President Drew Peterson, the source said. Michigan Athletic Director Warde Manual, a former Wolverine player under Bo Schembechler, and coach Jim Harbaugh also want to compete this fall season, but school president Mark Schlissel has so far opposed their efforts. Schlissel, who has a medical degree, spoke in support of “player safety” after the Big Ten’s announcement to cancel last week.
“This thing probably won’t go anywhere unless certain Big Ten presidents – like those at Michigan and Wisconsin – feel the pressure from their alumni, fans and especially their major donors,” the source said. “I understand that several seven- and eight-figure donors at Michigan are very unhappy with the Big Ten’s decision and are putting pressure on their president to change his mind. And they may be threatening to withhold their money.
“If they can get six schools to participate, the remaining Big Ten schools then have the choice to either join them or opt out of the season.”
The Big Ten originally released a new, conference-only schedule on Aug. 5 with windows for rescheduled games in order to give the teams flexibility in case any outbreaks occurred. Six days later, the conference announced it did not believe it was safe enough to play fall sports. The Pac-12 quickly joined the Big Ten but the SEC, ACC and Big 12 have continued to progress plans for football and other sports with new schedules and updated COVID-19 protocols.
According to an earlier report by Snook, which corroborated statements from athletic directors around the conference, the Big Ten presidents did not vote on canceling the season. Instead, according to Snook, the presidents “held a back-and-forth discussion, which was guided by new commissioner Kevin Warren” and led to the cancelation of fall sports and the hope of a spring season, reportedly Warren’s desire from the beginning.
Stewart Mandel of The Athletic, who believes explicitly in the competence of the Big Ten’s “scientists” is dubious that the conference will recant:
Although I admire the persistence of the players and parents — no chance the league reverses itself.
If the conference’s task force of medical professionals advised the school presidents it’s unsafe to play, they can’t turn around a week later and suddenly declare it safe to play. Just because a parent supports a letter in August saying they understand and accept the risks doesn’t mean there won’t be hell to pay if the conference lets that parent’s son play against the advice of its own doctors, and he contracts the virus from a football activity and develops life-altering complications or worse. I would assume the Big Ten is far more concerned with that scenario than it is any online petitions.
I say assume, because, as you know, neither Warren nor the league’s presidents have yet provided any specifics as to the basis for their decision. Hence, the letters and petitions. People were going to be angry and disappointed regardless, but I’ve never seen such empty messaging around such a colossal decision. Whereas the Pac-12 published its medical advisory committee’s full recommendations (which included, in bold type, “At this time, we do not recommend initiating contact or competition activities”), the Big Ten’s “transparency” consisted of Warren going on Big Ten Network for 20 minutes and repeating the phrase “too much uncertainty” roughly 250 times. Whereas the Pac-12 made not just Larry Scott but also a president, AD and doctor available to the media to discuss its “unanimous” decision, the Big Ten can’t even agree on whether there was a formal vote.
The Big Ten is not going to reverse its decision, but it owes its coaches, players, parents and fans at least these things:
• A Zoom press conference with Warren, at least one president, at least one AD and at least one member of its medical task force.
• Publishing the data and recommendations that drove its decision. Our Nicole Auerbach reported last week there have been at least 10 diagnosed cases of myocarditis among Big Ten athletes. The league has yet to acknowledge that.
• A more specific, preliminary plan for a spring season — rough start date, number of games, eligibility considerations (which the NCAA needs to address), etc.
The craziest thing about this whole controversy is that, end of day, the Big Ten’s decision is entirely justifiable. “We don’t feel it’s safe to play football amidst a raging pandemic” is not exactly a radical conclusion. As reader Tim Fischer noted in an e-mail to me, there are nearly 1,100 NCAA members across all divisions. Fewer than 100 are still attempting to play fall sports. Maybe Warren just assumed people would understand, given things have been trending this way for months. If so, he has not learned much in his first year on the job about the passion around Big Ten football.
Meanwhile, the SEC is looking smarter every day for how it’s handled the situation. The Big Ten boxed itself in when it strangely published a schedule that began as planned on Sept. 5, just days before its cancellation announcement. The SEC bought itself three extra weeks, in part hoping testing advancements will improve considerably by Sept. 26. Also, its schools’ students will have returned in full by then, at which point, based on what we’re seeing at North Carolina, Notre Dame and elsewhere, the decision may get made for them one way or the other, and Greg Sankey doesn’t have to be the bad guy.
Penn State coach James Franklin is speaking out, but Ben Kercheval of CBSSports.comthinks the Big Ten will ultimately stick to a horrible decision rather than admit a blunder:
The latest to voice his frustration over this is Penn State coach James Franklin. Meeting with reporters virtually, Franklin lamented the inability of the Big Ten to adequately communicate not only why it came to the decision it did — said decision came less than a week after releasing the 2020 schedule — but how it affects players this year and beyond.
“I am extremely frustrated because we still have very few answers to communicate to our young men and their families about their futures and very little understand of the factors contributing to the decision,” Franklin said.
Student-athlete eligibility is, and will continue to be, a major topic as some conferences and schools postpone football for the spring while others play in the fall. The NCAA council could have an answer finalized by Aug. 21. In the meantime, there are a lot of people, Franklin included, demanding to know what changed for the conference in opting out of the fall.
“It was working … then all [of a] sudden it changes and you weren’t a part of the conversation and you didn’t understand why,” Franklin said. “The amount of communication we have had before and after has been pretty good, but when the decision was actually being made, the decision caught a lot of people off guard. The decision came before everybody being on board and understanding it.”
Franklin’s points echo those of Big Ten admins, who just this week didn’t seem clear at all about exactly how the vote went down to proceed, or not proceed, with a season. To be clear, Franklin understood the difficult decision to not play football in the fall, even calling for the decision itself to be praised, but the inability for the conference to deliver a clear, concise and unified message has been a rare fumble for one of the most powerful conferences in college athletics.
The likelihood of the Big Ten reversing course is slim, even with all of the PR hits it has taken over the past week. Though the Big Ten has mishandled its communication, a decision of this magnitude would undergo even more scrutiny if it were to be reversed. Ultimately, the league probably didn’t have to make a decision when it did, which could have left more options on the table such as a winter season, as Franklin proposed.
Still, what’s done is done and it would likely take a major medical breakthrough for the Big Ten to play football sooner rather than later.
We were intrigued to hear about a “winter” season rather than a “spring” season.
So you could delay the start of the season indefinitely and wait for the election. If the results are such that the Covid Crisis is declared over, start camp on November 4. Start the season on Thanksgiving weekend. Play 9 or 10 games in 11 weeks to Super Bowl Saturday.
Lots of obstacles, but it is better than a pure spring season that Commissioner Warren seeks.
TOP NINE DEFENSES From Adam Schein of NFL.com:
First, I’d like to give some love to a couple units that didn’t make the cut. Seattle and Indianapolis finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense last season, but I think both will be far stingier in 2020. I have high hopes for the Seahawks’ defense after the Jamal Adams trade. Speaking of blockbuster deals, DeForest Buckner’s relocation to Indianapolis sure changes the Colts’ D-line. Darius Leonard, with a clean bill of health, is going to stuff the stat sheet playing behind Indy’s new game wrecker up front. Honestly, if my last name rhymed with 10, the Colts would be one of the teams listed below. But alas, that’s not the case. So, without further ado …
Here is my prediction for this season’s best defenses, Schein Nine style:
1 – Los Angeles Chargers I’ve been hot on this unit all offseason. Gus Bradley’s a tremendous defensive coordinator, and the man has a wealth of talent — on all three levels — at his disposal.
It all begins with Derwin James, who burst on the scene as a rookie in 2018 — earning first-team All-Pro honors with 98 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 picks and 13 passes defensed — only to have his 2019 campaign largely wiped out by an offseason foot injury. Now the safety’s back to full health, and this is everything for the Bolts. L.A.’s secondary is loaded and highly versatile — with free-agent addition Chris Harris Jr. joining multi-talented cover men Casey Hayward and Desmond King — but James is the straw who stirs the drink. The Swiss Army Knife of the unit, James is a playmaking star who contributes to every single component of this defense, from the pass rush to run support to coverage. His injury last August let the air out of this group’s proverbial balloon. How impactful is No. 33? Well, as detailed in a “bold predictions” Schein Nine earlier this offseason, I could see James winning the 2020 Defensive Player of the Year award. He’s that dynamic. And the back end isn’t the only imposing level of this defense.
I loved the Kenneth Murray pick in April’s draft. The first-rounder sounds like the total package at linebacker: a tone-setter with all the tangibles and intangibles you’d want. And he steps into a pretty ideal situation as a rookie MLB, with the aforementioned coverage group in the back end and a terrific tandem rushing the passer up front. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram offer premium juice off the edges. Bosa’s a bona fide star, completely worthy of his new $135 million contract. Only one problem: Now Ingram wants more loot. That’s a first world problem GM Tom Telesco will have to smooth over.
Philip Rivers has left the building, but the Chargers’ defense is chock-full of established talent. Look for Bradley to field a dominant unit.
2 – Buffalo Bills I love Sean McDermott. He’s a gem of a head coach, completely transforming the Bills’ culture during his three seasons on the job. Not to mention, he’s a sensational defensive mind, with fingerprints all over the unit that quietly finished last season ranked second in scoring defense and third in total D. No wonder Buffalo just extended him through 2025. And McDermott’s right-hand man, former head coach Leslie Frazier, is a luxury to have as a defensive coordinator.
Personnel wise, the Bills have two spectacular young building blocks: 25-year-old Tre’Davious White and 22-year-old Tremaine Edmunds. White just earned first-team All-Pro honors with an NFL-high six picks, while Edmunds made his first Pro Bowl as an emerging second-level dynamo. Meanwhile, the safety combo of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde remains criminally underrated, while DT Ed Oliver could be due for a second-year breakout. The talent is strong on every level. There’s no weakness. And while the signings of veterans like Mario Addison, Vernon Butler, Josh Norman, Quinton Jefferson and A.J. Klein don’t generate headlines, they fuel McDermott’s system. The coaching takes this defense to the next level.
3 – San Francisco 49ers They traded DeForest Buckner … and yet still possess the best defensive line in the game. Nick Bosa is an absolute freak. The reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year has a Defensive Player of the Year in his future. He just broke Pro Football Focus’ record for total pressures from a rookie and then racked up four sacks in three playoff games. I loved the re-upping of Arik Armstead, a versatile D-lineman with length and strength who broke out with 10 sacks last year. The Niners, of course, used the first-round pick acquired via the Buckner deal on DT Javon Kinlaw, a perfect replacement for Buckner who’s already turning teammates’ heads as “a man amongst boys” during camp. And I haven’t even mentioned QB hunter Dee Ford, who could end up being the fourth-best D-lineman on this team.
Behind this stacked D-line, Fred Warner is emerging as one of the best three-down linebackers in the game today, possessing the kind of coverage skills every team is looking for at the position. The biggest question area is the secondary. Richard Sherman somehow still played at a Hall of Fame level last year, but he’s entering his age-32 season at a position that’s not kind to the aging process. Safety Jimmie Ward’s fresh off a breakout campaign, though. And defensive coordinator Robert Saleh is a master motivator who’ll be a head coach soon.
4 – Pittsburgh Steelers This defense is so consistent and sturdy all around. No one embodies this more than 10th-year veteran Cam Heyward, who definitely deserves a new contract. I voted him first-team All-Pro last season, an honor that he did indeed receive for the second time in the past three years. Meanwhile, splash-play extraordinaire T.J. Watt was just named first-team All-Pro, as well, racking up 14.5 sacks, eight forced fumbles and 36 QB hits. With Stephon Tuitt returning from injury and Bud Dupree looking to earn big bucks while on the franchise tag, Pittsburgh’s defensive front is quite a collection of talent.
On the second level, second-year linebacker Devin Bush is a sideline-to-sideline playmaker. He was put on planet Earth to be a Steelers linebacker. And in the back end, Minkah Fitzpatrick outstripped all expectations after his midseason trade from Miami, becoming the third member of this defense to nab first-team All-Pro honors in 2019. And with experience in Pittsburgh’s system, he’s primed to be even better in 2020, which is scary.
5 – Baltimore Ravens The defensive backfield is simply phenomenal. Marcus Peters was reborn after a midseason trade to Baltimore, which is why the Ravens rewarded him with a three-year, $42 million extension in December. And Peters wasn’t the only Ravens corner to earn first-team All-Pro honors — Marlon Humphrey also got the nod after a fantastic Year 3. When healthy, Jimmy Smith is so much more than the CB3 role he currently holds in Baltimore — what a luxury for the Ravens. And Earl Thomas remains a stud in center field.
In the front seven, Matthew Judon can flat out ball — and playing on the franchise tag, he’ll be quite motivated to build his market for next offseason. Baltimore further bolstered the stout defense with a pair of high-impact offseason acquisitions. Hulking DL Calais Campbell is a perfect fit for the Ravens, on the field and in the locker room. Athletic LB Patrick Queen, the Ravens’ first-round pick at No. 28 overall, made my list of rookies I can’t wait to see.
6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers All offseason, the focus has been on Tampa Bay’s offense. Not surprising, as the Buccaneers did, after all, add the greatest quarterback and tight end in NFL history. But people need to stop sleeping on this defense’s immense potential. Here’s hoping that changes in 2020, with all eyes on Tom Brady’s team.
The unit really came into its own during the back half of last season, when the young secondary started to settle in. Cornerbacks Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean — all still just 23 years old — showed promise down the stretch. And now they’re joined in the secondary by rookie second-rounder Antoine Winfield Jr., an exciting playmaker with an instant-impact pedigree. Meanwhile, Lavonte David remains chronically underrated and underappreciated. He’s everything you want in a modern linebacker. And his partner on the second level, 2019 first-rounder Devin White, lived up to the billing in Year 1 and should take another step in 2020. The pass rush is fierce, with Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul hunting off the edges, while DTs Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh form a brick wall in the middle, giving Tampa the top-ranked rush defense in 2019.
If the young corners can build off their progress from last season, Tampa’s D will be much more than the Buccaneers’ other unit.
7 – Kansas City Chiefs Too high? Heck no! Chris Jones is a force inside. Frank Clark is an edge menace. Tyrann Mathieu is a leader and a playmaker. Steve Spagnuolo is a fabulous defensive coordinator.
Look at how Kansas City’s defense played down the stretch and in the playoffs last year. Chiefs defenders made plays to get the ball back to Patrick Mahomes. And really, that’s how this defense will be defined.
8 – Chicago Bears Truth is, this defense just wasn’t the same after Vic Fangio left to coach the Broncos. Truth is, Khalil Mack had a down year in 2019.
That said, I’m still a believer in this unit because I’m still a believer in the 29-year-old Mack. I see him wrecking games once again in 2020, especially with Akiem Hicks back to good health and free-agent signee Robert Quinn joining the fray. Mack failed to reach double-digit sacks last season for the first time since his rookie campaign. I do not see that happening again.
And when Chicago’s front applies the pressure, CB Kyle Fuller and S Eddie Jackson are there to make plays in the back end.
9 – New Orleans Saints Cam Jordan is one of the very best defensive linemen in the NFL today, having just posted 15.5 sacks and earned his fifth Pro Bowl nod. The guy is a versatile force of nature who strikes fear in opposing offenses. With better health luck, Marcus Davenport could emerge as New Orleans’ much-needed second pass rusher. The third-year pro has the talent — he just needs to put it all together. Getting back a healthy Sheldon Rankins is huge, too. The 2016 first-rounder is an interior disruptor against the run and pass. Having Davenport and Rankins to complement Jordan is vital to the NOLA D.
Linebacker Demario Davis is finally getting the credit he deserves, having just been named first-team All-Pro after a dynamic 2019 campaign. Marshon Lattimore has been a bit inconsistent since his excellent Defensive Rookie of the Year campaign, but he just made his second Pro Bowl in three NFL seasons. I trust DC Dennis Allen to get the most out of his talented corner — and a healthier Saints defense — in 2020.
FANTASY LOVE-HATE Matthew Berry of ESPN.com with his annual Love/Hate column (edited):
This is not a sleepers and busts column.
I personally hate those terms. Any player can be a “sleeper” or a “bust” — it all just depends on what it costs to draft said player. This column is actually less about players and much more about ESPN Average Draft Positions, which is a real-time report of where players are drafted in ESPN leagues. Obviously, ADP varies by site, so someone I think is undervalued in ESPN drafts might be going four rounds earlier somewhere else. What can I tell you? I’m a company man, and we’re using ESPN’s ADP. Now, ADP is sure to rise or fall, as the case may be, but this is a snapshot of how players were being drafted in the first few weeks of August.
It’s an important distinction because “Love” and “Hate” refer entirely to a player’s ADP. I don’t actually “hate” Amari Cooper as a player. I do hate his ADP as a top-10 WR when Michael Gallup is going many rounds later.
This is also not a ranking. I have Miles Sanders listed as a “Hate” and Jordan Howard as a “Love,” but that does NOT mean I advocate drafting Howard over Sanders. Far from it. What it means is that I believe a top-10 RB price tag is too rich for Sanders and that Howard’s ADP outside the top 35 at the position is a bargain.
That’s what this column does: It highlights players I believe will outperform or fall short of their ESPN ADP.
Quarterbacks I love in 2020
Dak Prescott, Cowboys: Somehow going as QB6 in ESPN live drafts, last year’s second-best QB in total points continues to get no respect on the virtual field. This will be a common theme among many of the players listed here, but in a year with no preseason games and just 14 padded practices, I want as much continuity as possible.
Tom Brady, Buccaneers: OK, so yes, after talking up continuity and the need for rushing touchdowns in my Draft-Day Manifesto and above in the Prescott write-up, I’m now talking up a 43-year-old non-mobile QB on a new team and in a new offensive system. But then again, when we are talking about Tom Brady, conventional wisdom goes out the window. He’s a genetic marvel, and on a simple, global scale, people who bet against Brady always end up losing. I’m in on Brady this year, and it’s not just that he’ll be playing with arguably the best total group of pass-catchers he’s ever had in his career. This is an offensive system that is going to throw, throw and throw some more. Jameis Winston was QB5 in this system last season despite 30 interceptions. Think about Carson Palmer going to Arizona toward the end of his career. After averaging just 14.4 PPG in his two seasons in Oakland, Palmer came to Bruce Arians in Arizona and crushed. As a 36-year-old in 2015, Palmer was QB5. Playing in warm weather can only help (Weeks 9-17: five home games, a bye week, road games against Carolina, Atlanta and Detroit). The idea that Brady is washed is absurd (before everyone on the Patriots got hurt last season, Brady had 20-plus fantasy points in five of his first six games), but here’s something I don’t have a stat for. Brady is an extremely rich man, he has six rings and he will be a unanimous first-ballot Hall of Famer. There is no reason for him to leave New England and do this except one: He wants to prove he can do it without Bill Belichick. Similar to Peyton Manning’s first season in Denver, you have a highly skilled and motivated QB in a fantasy-friendly offense. Every possession in close? That’s gonna be a cheap TD pass. Bucs up big? Still gonna be throwing. Entirely a gut call, but I believe Brady wants to not only win this season but put up massive “told you so” numbers while doing it. You either believe or you do not. I believe. I’m in on Brady as a QB1 this season.
Daniel Jones, Giants: A funny thing happened on the way to Jones being a huge bust and proving everyone who thinks Dave Gettleman is an idiot right. Jones was good. Thrown into the starting lineup to replace a living legend on a team that was going through lots of organizational issues, Jones looked the part of a franchise QB last season and had flashes where he showed his massive potential. Despite starting only 12 games in his rookie year on a bad team, Jones had four games with at least 28 fantasy points (tied for third most in the NFL). He’s more mobile than he gets credit for (at least 20 rushing yards in seven of 12 starts), and I’m not sure people realize how good Jones was during the second half of last season. From Week 8 on, Jones was the fifth-best QB in fantasy on a points-per-game basis.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: “Big Ben” isn’t just about his height — I’m pretty sure it’s relevant to the size of his beard. And his gut. Oh, and his fantasy production. Out of quarantine and back onto the field, Ben has trimmed the beard, shed the winter weight and, most important, is healthy. On a recent episode of the Fantasy Focus 06010 podcast, Stephania Bell gave him a “clean Bell of health,” which I am trying to make a thing. Anyway, health is really the only question for Roethlisberger. He was the third-best QB in fantasy in 2018, when he led the NFL in passing yards and passing attempts per game while averaging more than 21 points per game at home and on the road. Sure, he no longer has Antonio Brown as he did in 2018, but the Steelers have a deep and talented group of pass-catchers, they will be a pass-heavy and fantasy-friendly offense, and he’s currently going as QB17 in the 16th round. Of all the guys going that late, he clearly has the best chance of being top five at his position, and if he’s not, it didn’t cost you much in draft capital. Ben is a massive bargain this season.
Others receiving votes: Jared Goff may not be great, but he’s not QB20 either, which is where he’s currently going… I’m in on Gardner Minshew II as a late-round QB with upside. Another who is more mobile than he gets credit for (at least 27 rushing yards in eight of 12 starts last season), Minshew should build on a rookie season in which he scored at least 16 points in eight of 12 starts. He’s also playing with mostly the same core group, and I’m excited to see what Jay Gruden brings to the offense… Speaking of guys who could get a ton of junk-time production, Teddy Bridgewater has what should be a pass-happy offense, a terrible defense and a lot of guys (Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, Robby Anderson) who can take a short pass and run to the house.
Quarterbacks I hate in 2020 Aaron Rodgers, Packers: He’s an amazing real-life NFL QB, he’s going to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer and he is a bad, bad man. But last year’s QB13 on a points-per-game basis comes into 2020 off a season where he had the lowest fantasy point total of any in his career in which he played at least 15 games. He had nine weekly finishes of QB20 or worse. Think about that. Rodgers is currently going as QB11 on ESPN, and while he obviously has the talent to earn that and more, I have him comfortably outside of my top 12 QBs for 2020.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers: As mentioned in the intro, it’s hard to really “hate” the QB currently being drafted as QB19. But I’m putting him here because he is currently being drafted ahead of guys with much more upside. Guys I wrote about above, like Goff, Minshew and Bridgewater, plus others like Baker Mayfield, Drew Lock and Sam Darnold. I like all of them more than the starting QB on the second-most-run-heavy team in the NFL.
Running backs I love in 2020 Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs: BE. STILL. MY. BEATING. HEART! That’s what I was screaming into my phone as I recorded videos for ESPN on draft day. Edwards-Helaire, the first player in SEC history with more than 1,000 rushing yards and more than 50 receptions in a single season; the player who forced the second-most missed tackles in the FBS; the versatile and elusive player who was going to an Andy Reid offense. The perfect fit for player and offense, At CEH’s price point, you’re either all-in or you’re not. I’m in.
Austin Ekeler, Chargers: This is one I just do not get. Have people just not seen pictures of him without his shirt off? It’s very impressive, I promise you. In fairness, I have a dad bod, so pretty much anyone without a muffin top impresses me, but still. Somehow Ekeler is going in the middle of the third round on ESPN and outside the top 10 RBs. I have him at No. 11 overall, a borderline first-rounder.
Josh Jacobs, Raiders: My fantasy ride-or-die from last year worked out well for those true believers. A late-season injury was the only blemish on an otherwise strong rookie season in both real life and fantasy. I always say fantasy success comes from two things: talent and opportunity. Jacobs has both in abundance, so I’m surprised to see him, like Ekeler, going in the third round and barely inside the overall top 25. I have him as a top-10 player overall.
Chris Carson, Seahawks: Death, taxes and me banging the drum for Chris Carson. I’m Alex Van Halen over here, banging away trying to get people to respect Carson. Every. Damn. Year. Carson is currently going in the middle of the fourth round, and I’ve seen him go outside the top 20 running backs in some early drafts. I don’t get the arguments. It can’t be competition. He has none. What year are we on for Rashaad Penny taking over full time? Three years now? Five? Ten? I’ve lost count. Penny is very possibly going to start the season on the PUP list. I’m not worried about Carlos Hyde, now on his sixth team in four years. He’s there as depth because of concerns around Penny’s health, not Carson’s. Oh, and when Pete Carroll got up to talk about RB DeeJay Dallas after the team drafted him, the first thing he mentioned was how excited he was to see Dallas on special teams. Carson will once again be the lead back on one of the NFL’s run-heaviest teams (he was fifth in the NFL in carries per game last season).
David Johnson, Texans: I can give you stats that show he was more effective than you think last season (before he was injured, he was RB5 in Weeks 1-6, averaging 20.2 PPG on 17.7 touches per game, including 52.5 receiving yards per game, which was second best among all RBs). I can tell you about the Houston offense, which last season used Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson (two players who are not as good as David) to combine for 1,480 rushing yards, 54 receptions, eight touchdowns and 307.2 fantasy points (if that was one RB, it would have been RB5 last season). But instead I’m just gonna talk gut here. Remember when the Giants drafted Saquon Barkley over a QB and everyone roasted them for it? The organization, from the front office to the coaches on down needed to make Saquon work. He was going to get a ton of work no matter what, because if nothing else worked that year, Saquon was going to be a success. We’re talking about different players, obviously, and Barkley is really talented, but so is Johnson. After trading away DeAndre Hopkins and taking on Johnson’s salary, Bill O’Brien needs David Johnson to work.
Others receiving votes: I hinted at this point pretty strongly in my 100 Facts You Need to Know Before You Draft article, but at his current ADP (RB26), Kareem Hunt is an absolute steal. … I appreciate that people are worried about the RBBC nature of the 49ers, but that offense is run-heavy and effective enough (third in rush percentage, fifth in red zone rush percentage) to support two viable fantasy running backs. Raheem Mostert was fourth among RBs last season (minimum 100 touches) in fantasy points per touch and is slated for a much bigger role this season. Meanwhile, people are forgetting Tevin Coleman still actually led the team in red zone carries (he had 45% of San Fran’s RB goal-to-go carries last season) and led all 49ers running backs in target share. Both are talented, and I like both to outproduce their ADP in a significant way (Mostert’s ADP is currently RB28 in the ninth round and Coleman’s is RB39 in the 13th round). … Two first names, always a crowd pleaser. Since Jordan Howard came into the league in 2016, he is third in the NFL in rushing yards and seventh in rushing touchdowns. He was sixth among RBs (minimum 100 carries) in percentage of rushes that went for at least 10 yards, and Howard now goes to a Miami team that spent this offseason significantly improving its offensive line and whose only real competition for touches is oft-injured Matt Breida … I know everyone is all gaga for Cam Akers, but he’s a rookie in a year with no preseason games and very limited practice time. So somehow, Darrell Henderson Jr., who was the buzzy rookie last year, is going much later this year than he did last, despite the fact that Henderson has a much clearer path to significant playing time in 2020. What are we doing here gang? It’s all small sample size with him from last year, but more than 10% of his carries went for 10-plus yards. A big play waiting to happen, he has a legit shot to have the majority of the Rams’ run game to himself (at least early on, and if he crushes, he ain’t coming out). Henderson is one of my favorite fliers, and as RB35 (11th round), he’s not going to cost much. … Another later-round flier I like a lot is Antonio Gibson of Washington. The team’s release of Derrius Guice will cause Gibson’s ADP to rise, but his versatility is something I know Washington is very excited about. … I believe James Conner has a short leash this year. Partially because of his injury history, but also partially because of Anthony McFarland Jr., who I like a lot. … Small sample size, but from Week 14 on last season, the seventh-best RB in fantasy was … Boston Scott. Doug Pederson is going to use multiple backs this season (more on that in a minute), but unless Philly signs a veteran, Scott has a real chance at carving out a nice fantasy-relevant role for himself. … In a year with COVID-19 and so much unknown, I’m a fan of insuring your main RB or taking a shot at having a backup pop, so I always get at least one, if not two or three, of J.K. Dobbins, Tony Pollard, Alexander Mattison, Latavius Murray, Chase Edmonds, Joshua Kelley and DeAndre Washington in drafts.
Running backs I hate in 2020
Leonard Fournette, Jaguars: The argument for Fournette is volume, his new pass-catching role and how unlucky he got with touchdowns last season. He has to have more luck with touchdowns this season, right? Well, sure. If he’s on the team. Fournette was the subject of trade rumors earlier this year, and Jacksonville declined to pick up his fifth-year option, a stunning and seemingly final nail in the coffin for his time with the Jags. I’m not 100 percent convinced he finishes the season with Jacksonville, and he’s an obvious candidate to be dealt if a contending team finds itself needing a RB this season. But even if he stays with the Jags this season, the passing-game volume is very likely to go down with the acquisition of Chris Thompson, now reunited with his former Washington coach Jay Gruden.
Miles Sanders, Eagles: I want to be very clear here. I think Miles Sanders is a good football player and will have a very good season, OK? I’m gonna repeat it. I THINK MILES SANDERS IS A GOOD FOOTBALL PLAYER AND WILL HAVE A VERY GOOD SEASON. But he’s on this list because he’s currently going as RB8 and I’m like … what? A top-eight running back? That … that is aggressive…He is being drafted ahead of Joe Mixon, who also has no competition and has multiple years of being elite. Miles Sanders may very well work out this season and make me look like an idiot. It won’t be the first or last time for that. But even if he does work out, he is being drafted at his best-case-scenario ADP with no room for profit.
D’Andre Swift, Lions: Very talented player who was all that and a bag of peaches in the SEC at Georgia, so I get the excitement, I just don’t get the ADP. Swift is currently going as RB24, ahead of guys like Kareem Hunt (talked him up above), Mark Ingram II (lead back on the best rushing offense in the NFL) and David Montgomery (has the backfield all to himself). I know I’m a broken record here, but we have no preseason games. Only 14 padded practices. I’m not convinced Swift starts the season as the guy, and even if he is, it’ll be a RBBC.
Tarik Cohen, Bears: He’s a nice player, but this is all about draft philosophy. I want no part of Cohen. He’s currently being drafted as RB31, ahead of guys with much more upside, like Darrell Henderson Jr. or J.K. Dobbins. There is no scenario where Cohen is anything more than a usable flex piece.
Pass-catchers I love in 2020
Allen Robinson II, Bears: Apologies in advance to Mitchell Trubisky. Because, you see, it’s impossible to talk up Robinson without making it all seem like an insult to Trubisky.
“Allen Robinson was WR8 last season, despite having Trubisky as his QB.”
“Trubisky focused only on Robinson, as A-Rob was third in target share and top five in end zone targets and led all NFL players in red zone target share last season.”
“Imagine how good Robinson could be this season if Nick Foles is even slightly better than Trubisky!”
The challenge is it’s all true. Robinson is a very talented pass-catcher who is now clearly fully healthy. He enters a 2020 season where one of two things are going to happen. 1.) Trubisky will get better and hold off Nick Foles, or 2.) Foles will improve the offense. And either way, Robinson will be the focal point of a passing offense that will be … wait for it … passable. He is currently going in the middle of the fourth round on ESPN, so Robinson is a legit WR1 this season being drafted at a WR2 ADP.
Robert Woods, Rams: Here’s another guy, like Robinson, who doesn’t have a flashy name, isn’t a diva and often doesn’t get talked about the way elite fantasy wide receivers should. Woods, the 13th-best WR in fantasy in points per game over the past two seasons, is currently going in the sixth round as WR20, despite the fact that more than 120 targets from last season are up for grabs in L.A. with the departures of Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley II.
Terry McLaurin, Washington: We got rid of Washington’s team name, can we do away with “F1” and finally lose all the bad nicknames in our nation’s capital? Please? He’s Terry McScorin, and he’s gonna be a monster this season…I don’t know for sure who will be the QB for Washington, but I do know that person will be looking early and often for Terry McScorin, whose mid-seventh-round ADP is a bargain.
Michael Gallup, Cowboys: Which WR do you want based on 2019 per-game averages?
WR A: 4.9 rec., 7.4 targets, 74.3 yds., 15.1 yds/rec., 31.0 routes, 0.50 rec. TDs, 15.4 fantasy pts.
WR B: 4.7 rec., 8.1 targets, 79.1 yds., 16.8 yds/rec., 35.0 routes, 0.43 rec. TDs, 15.2 fantasy pts.
Basically the same, right? Maybe you lean slightly toward one or the other, but whatever. Dealer’s choice, right? Well, WR A is 2019 Amari Cooper, currently going as WR10 on ESPN. And WR B is 2019 Michael Gallup, currently going as WR31, in the ninth round. Now, critics will point out that Gallup’s per-game averages are inflated by his huge Week 17 game against Washington last season when he caught three touchdowns. Fine. Here are those same categories for Weeks 1-16:
Cooper: 5.0 rec., 7.6 targets, 73.1 yds., 31.0 routes, 0.53 rec. TDs, 15.5 fantasy pts.
Gallup: 4.7 rec., 8.2 targets, 77.6 yds., 35.8 routes, 0.23 rec. TDs, 13.8 fantasy pts.
OK, Cooper looks better now … but does he look 54 picks better? Because Gallup is going five-plus rounds after Cooper. Oh, let’s do one other thing. Remember, Gallup got injured early last season and wasn’t 100 percent the first few games back. So here’s their numbers in Weeks 9-16 last season, after the Cowboys’ Week 8 bye:
Cooper: 4.6 rec., 8.0 targets, 59.5 yds., 34.3 routes, 0.38 rec. TDs, 12.8 fantasy pts.
Gallup: 4.3 rec., 8.3 targets, 73.7 yds., 38.5 routes, 0.25 rec. TDs, 13.1 fantasy pts.
You already know I am high on Dak Prescott this season. Same QB, same system. Gallup’s third season in the NFL is going to be a special one, and if you’re going to invest in the Dallas passing game, why wouldn’t you do it with the guy who can give you similar or better production five rounds later?
Marquise Brown, Ravens: He was injured coming into his rookie season, learning a new system with an inexperienced QB, and yet Hollywood was still incredibly efficient, catching 66.7% of his targets (top 20 in the NFL). Now entering his second season, he is the No. 1 wide receiver on the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL (33.2 PPG in 2019) with little competition for targets other than tight end Mark Andrews, and he is going in the ninth round as WR32. Fantasy doesn’t have to be that tough, kids. An increase in targets is expected this season for Brown, who in his six games last season with five-plus targets averaged 15.5 PPG. (Last season, WR13 Kenny Golladay averaged 15.5 PPG.)
Mark Andrews, Ravens: Speaking of the Ravens and that narrow target tree, Andrews is on this list because I have him at TE3, ahead of Zach Ertz, who everyone else has at TE3. Same argument as Brown — Lamar Jackson led the NFL in touchdown passes last season and his only competition for significant targets is Marquise Brown. Andrews led all players in percentage of routes he was targeted on last season and was top three among tight ends in yards per route, receptions per route, slot catches, slot yards, end zone targets, air yards per target, total air yards and TE target share, and he was fourth in fantasy points per catch. If we all agree last season’s leader in touchdown passes will have another strong season (and we all agree on that, right?), why wouldn’t you want one of his top two targets, especially at a position like tight end? Especially when he is going in the mid-fifth round?
Hayden Hurst, Falcons: When I interviewed Hurst at the NFLPA Rookie Premiere a few years ago, we spent much of the interview talking about fantasy football. His fantasy football teams. He had played with buddies for years and was a three-time champion of his league. I don’t know if he still plays, but if he does, he should think strongly about drafting himself. A talented player who dealt with injuries and depth chart issues being stuck behind Mark Andrews, Hurst now finds himself in a great opportunity in Atlanta.
Others receiving votes: A lot of these guys could’ve easily been legit “loves” on their own, but even I have space limitations. Marvin Jones Jr. is another unsexy guy who no one will get angry about when you draft him, but he was WR14 last season in the eight games he played with Matthew Stafford and finished the season as a top-20 WR on a points-per-game basis. He’s currently being left for dead as WR35. Bonkers. … With DeAndre Hopkins moving on to Arizona, there are 150 targets up for grab in Houston. In Will Fuller V’s past 16 games with at least seven targets, he’s put up this line: 87-1,192-8 (259.9 FP). That would’ve been good enough for WR7 last season. Health is always the concern with Fuller, but at a 10th-round cost (WR36 in ADP), that risk is more than baked into his draft stock. Worth the gamble. … You know I like Daniel Jones this season, so it stands to reason I like Sterling Shepardas a value. .. Small sample size, but Diontae Johnson was WR12 in Weeks 14-17. That was as a rookie with, shall we say, inconsistent QB play. He led all rookies last season (minimum 50 targets) in average separation, and we’ve seen a Big Ben-led offense support two fantasy-relevant WRs before. I like Ben’s chances this season to do it again with JuJu and Diontae. Johnson is currently going as WR41 in the 13th round. … Speaking of quarterbacks who have shown they can support two fantasy-relevant WRs, Aaron Rodgers has done it many different years. I say he does it again this season andAllen Lazard is the non-Davante guy you want in Green Bay. … Quietly, Sam Darnold was sixth in deep pass attempts per game last season and seventh in deep completions. So give me someBreshad Perriman late in drafts … We saw what Anthony Miller was capable of last season when he was WR8 in Weeks 11-15. … My expectation is that Cam Newton will be the starting QB for the Patriots and he’s gonna have to throw to someone. Cam doesn’t mind throwing a jump ball, so why not take a late-round flier on N’Keal Harry, who had 26% of his targets last season come in the red zone. … So many tight ends I like are going outside the top 10. Among them is Noah Fant, who had some big plays and flashes of brilliance last season, which helped boost his TE-best 8.3 yards after the catch and 14.1 yards per reception (second best among tight ends). The Broncos’ offense should be better this season and Drew Lock will lean heavily on Fant. … Mike Gesicki tied for the most end zone targets among tight ends last season. As a rookie, Gesicki was TE8 in fantasy points per game from Week 9 on. … No Delanie Walker anymore in Tennessee, so Ryan Tannehill and the Titans coaching staff will turn to Jonnu Smith, who led all tight ends in catch rate last season and was sixth among tight ends in fantasy points per target. He’s gonna get a lot more targets this season. … As a Washington fan, I hate how high I am on the Cowboys’ offense this season, but yeah, Blake Jarwin is a young, athletic tight end they like a lot in Dallas and he should have an increased role this season.
Pass-catchers I hate in 2020 Amari Cooper, Cowboys: See: Gallup, Michael. As you read, following the Cowboys’ Week 8 bye, on a per-game basis, from Weeks 9-16 (so excluding Gallup’s big three-touchdown Week 17 game vs. Washington) Gallup averaged more targets, more yards, ran more routes and averaged more fantasy points than Cooper. Cooper is just 26 and barring injury will once again be a very good player and fantasy option. He’s just not five rounds better than his teammate.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos: I don’t hate players, I hate ADPs, the saying goes. So let me be clear. Courtland Sutton is an extremely talented player who has managed to produce despite very shaky QB play in each of the past two seasons, but consider this: In 2019, Sutton ranked sixth in both target share and end zone targets per game. Yet even with all that opportunity, he was WR27 on a PPG basis and had only three games all season with more than five catches. A full season of Drew Lock will make the offense better and more likely to score, but the Broncos spent their first two draft picks on Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, signed a very capable pass-catching back in Melvin Gordon (92 receptions in his past 24 games), and as you’ve read, I’m in on TE Noah Fant getting a larger role.
Henry Ruggs III, Raiders: I get the excitement for rookies and especially one as talented as Ruggs, but WR38 is really high to me given he’s going before all other rookie WRs and guys like Sterling Shepard, Diontae Johnson, and Brandin Cooks, who prior to last season, had four straight 1,000-yard seasons…Ruggs has already been hurt this offseason and like I’ve said multiple times, the talent isn’t questioned but with no preseason games and only 14 padded practices, I prefer other more-proven guys in the range Ruggs is going.
Jared Cook, Saints: He needs touchdowns, plain and simple. How lucky do you feel? Last season, tight ends that had at least 50 targets earned 24.5% of their fantasy points from touchdowns. Jared Cook got 49.4% of his points last season from touchdowns. In games last season where Cook didn’t score a touchdown, he averaged 7.3 points, which would have been TE22, just ahead of Kyle Rudolph. So he needs touchdowns. How likely is he to get them in bunches again? He did get a lot of end zone targets last season, I’ll give him that, but overall he averaged just 4.5 targets per game (16th among tight ends) and finished 17th among tight ends in target share. My feeling is it’s more likely than not that the touchdowns go down with the addition of Emmanuel Sanders, some positive regression for Alvin Kamara in the touchdown department and the emergence of Taysom Hill. Touchdowns are generally fluky (prior to his nine last season, Cook had six in his breakout year in Oakland and a total of three in the three seasons from 2015-17), and this also works in concert with draft philosophy for me. This year, I either want to be one of the first guys in my league to grab a tight end or one of the last, as there are a number of young tight ends with huge upside who are likely to have significantly larger roles in their offenses than the 33-year-old Cook.
Hunter Henry, Chargers: Another guy who is touchdown-dependent (for his career, Henry averages just 6.9 points in games in which he doesn’t score touchdowns), Henry has a couple of concerns this season beyond just being overly reliant on touchdowns. First, of course, is health, as Henry has missed 22 games in his first three seasons and has never played more than 14 games in a NFL season. Second is the change in QB. Philip Rivers was known for targeting tight ends, especially in the red zone. Current starting QB Tyrod Taylor not as much.
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