If these are the seven biggest surprise cuts of Tuesday, there weren’t too many huge shockers (some will be discussed further with the teams involved below).  Mike Jones of The Athletic:

There were a number of proven players who didn’t survive cutdown day, but they likely will resurface elsewhere. Here are seven of the more surprising roster cuts made this week across the league.

WR Phillip Dorsett (Las Vegas Raiders)

Reunited with former New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, Dorsett appeared to have a good shot at catching on with the Raiders, but was deemed expendable despite eight catches for 103 yards this preseason.

LB Cory Littleton (Houston Texans)

A Pro Bowl selection and second-team All-Pro in 2018 with the Los Angeles Rams, Littleton had just signed a one-year deal with Houston worth just more than $2 million. He also recorded 11 tackles this preseason.

QB Colt McCoy (Arizona Cardinals)

With Kyler Murray on the physically unable to perform list, McCoy was the projected starter after spending the last two seasons with Arizona and going 3-3 in his six starts. The 13th-year veteran turns 37 next month.

QB Nathan Peterman (Chicago Bears)

After the Bears cut P.J. Walker, Peterman seemed likely to remain as the backup to Justin Fields. But instead, the Bears apparently will roll with rookie Tyson Bagent, who went undrafted out of Division II’s Shepherd University and impressed coaches this training camp with his arm and mobility.

CB Bradley Roby (New Orleans Saints)

A 10th-year veteran, Roby had spent the last two seasons with New Orleans and was the Saints’ projected starter at nickel back.

LB Jaylon Smith (New Orleans Saints)

The former Notre Dame star and 2016 Dallas Cowboys second-round pick had made some impressive plays for the Saints this preseason, recording eight tackles and a pass breakup. Yet he failed to make the cut.

QB Bailey Zappe (New England Patriots)

The 2022 fourth-rounder went 2-0 as a starter last season. With Mac Jones struggling, there were questions as to whether Zappe could challenge his job security this season. Apparently not.

Zappe is on a similar list from Tyler Sullivan of CBSSports.com:

With that in mind, we’ve looked over each player cut leading through Tuesday’s deadline, picked out a handful of notable names, and tried to play matchmakers for their next stop in the NFL.

QB Colt McCoy, cut by Arizona

Potential landing spot: New England Patriots

After waiving Bailey Zappe, Trace McSorley, and even rookie returner/receiver/quarterback Malik Cunningham, the Patriots have starter Mac Jones as their lone signal-caller on the roster. Whether it’s bringing back one (or more) of those players via the practice squad or not, New England will, of course, add a quarterback to the roster. If the Patriots go outside of the organization, Colt McCoy would be a solid veteran to pair with Jones in Bill O’Brien’s offense.

McCoy was one of the more surprising cuts as many assumed he’d be the club’s starting quarterback while Kyler Murray continues to rehab his torn ACL from last season. After Arizona acquired Joshua Dobbs in a trade, however, that paved the way for McCoy’s exit from the Cardinals. During the preseason, McCoy completed 9 of 12 passes for 42 yards in two exhibitions.

WR Andy Isabella, cut by Buffalo

Potential landing spot: Tennessee Titans

Isabella does have plenty of potential to be a solid slot receiver within an NFL offense, but he hasn’t exactly found the right fit. The former second-round pick latched on with the Buffalo Bills this summer and had some flashy moments (six catches for 63 yards in the preseason), but it ultimately wasn’t enough to make the 53-man roster.

Tennessee is relatively thin at receiver behind DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks, so it’d make sense to take a flier on a speedy wideout like Isabella as pass-catching depth along with on special teams. Isabella ran a 4.31 40-yard dash coming into the NFL and that type of speed should be something that Tennessee would want to inject into its offense, while also not overlapping the skill sets of Hopkins and Burks. 

T Alex Leatherwood, cut by Chicago

Potential landing spot: New England Patriots

Leatherwood’s brief time in the NFL has been a tumultuous one. After being a first-round pick just a few years ago in 2021, the lineman has bounced around two different teams in as many seasons. He once again finds himself looking for a new home after the Chicago Bears waived him as they bring their roster down to the opening 53 players.

This seems like a prototypical Patriots target. He was a first-round talent who failed to get his footing once he got into the league and could be a high-upside project for Bill Belichick with him only being 24 years old. Leatherwood also has the Alabama pedigree that seems to attract itself to Foxborough given the relationship between Belichick and Nick Saban. Leatherwood came into the league as a tackle but did see some time at guard with the Bears. That versatility could also be appealing to the Patriots, but they do have a long-term need at tackle which could be explored here.

WR Breshad Perriman, cut by Indianapolis

Potential landing spot: New York Jets

Perriman’s tour around the NFL continues after the former first-round wide receiver was released by the Indianapolis Colts leading into Tuesday’s deadline. The former 26th overall pick in 2015 has been with nine teams throughout his career and has shown some promise in various spots, but nothing that has lived up to his draft billing.

One of his more productive years, however, came in 2020 as a member of the New York Jets, who could be a solid pairing this time around. While the coaching staff is different from Perriman’s first go-round with the club, New York did just see Corey Davis retire and the 29-year-old could be a solid depth option for Aaron Rodgers’ offense.

DB Johnathan Abram, cut by New Orleans

Potential landing spot: Cincinnati Bengals

The former first-round pick is once again looking for a new home. Abram was drafted with the No. 27 overall pick by the Raiders in 2019 and spent the first few years of his career with Las Vegas before being released in November of last year. He was initially claimed by the Packers but was released a few weeks later. Abram then finished out the year as a member of the Seahawks and signed with New Orleans back in March. After being unable to make the Saints’ 53-man roster, he’s now on waivers. The team reportedly wants him back on the practice squad, but he’ll need to clear waivers first.

As for who could claim him, the Bengals would be interesting. While he may not be able to provide immediate results, the 26-year-old could provide some upside in a safety unit that was gutted this offseason with the departures of both Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell in free agency.

WR Chosen Anderson, cut by Miami

Potential landing spot: Detroit Lions

Anderson battled for the No. 3 receiver job for the Dolphins this summer, but ultimately couldn’t make the 53-man roster. The 30-year-old receiver could still be a valuable piece within an offense looking to stretch the field with his speed. Could that potentially be the Lions? The wide receiver depth chart isn’t that impressive for Detroit behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. Anderson could be an ideal replacement as a deep threat while second-year receiver and former first-round pick Jameson Williams serves his six-game suspension.

QB Bailey Zappe, cut by New England

Potential landing spot: San Francisco 49ers

New England waiving Zappe was one of the more surprising moves of cutdown day. After all, the 2022 fourth-rounder impressed in his showing last season and even rivaled Mac Jones for the starting job for a minute as a rookie. However, he did seem to struggle during training camp and the preseason, which likely led to the Patriots exposing him to waivers.

It seems unlikely that Zappe will find his way to a starting role anytime soon, but he could still have value as a depth piece on a quarterback depth chart. And do you know who should emphasize having a deep pool of quarterbacks? The 49ers. Of course, San Francisco did send Trey Lance to the Cowboys after losing the backup job to Sam Darnold (who is only signed through this year), but that doesn’t mean the Niners can’t still have three quarterbacks on the roster. In fact, they did keep Brandon Allen as their third QB, but Zappe could be looked at as an upgrade at a vitally important position. Zappe would be tremendous insurance if the 49ers again found themselves looking down their bench of quarterbacks due to injuries on top of a project for Kyle Shanahan to develop behind Purdy going forward.

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

The amazing saga of QB TYSON BAGENT continues as he beats out the well-known QB NATHAN PETERMAN for the back-up job in Chicago.  At least, he has that job today.  Jordan Campbell of DaWindyCity.com expects an incoming veteran:

When news broke on Sunday night that the Chicago Bears were going to be releasing veteran backup quarterback PJ Walker, the expectation was that undrafted rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent defied the odds and won the backup quarterback spot behind Justin Fields.

The news appeared to be confirmed on Tuesday with news that the Bears were releasing veteran quarterback Nathan Peterman.

But, not so fast.

Matt Eberflus spoke with reporters on Tuesday afternoon and while he did praise the work that Bagent has done, the Bears’ head coach did not rule out the idea of the team adding a veteran backup quarterback.

Given the fact that Peterman did not play in the Bears’ final pre-season game last Saturday, it was an indicator that the veteran quarterback was not in the mix to be the team’s backup quarterback.

Tyson Bagent entering the season as the Bears’ backup quarterback would be a mistake.

There is no doubt that Bagent certainly has proven to be worthy of being a developmental quarterback for the Bears with his play during the pre-season. The issue is that Bagent’s first real test against an NFL-caliber defense showed that there still is a gap between where he currently is and where he would need to be in the event that he is needed to start in place of an injured Fields.

Bagent got a brief look at the Buffalo Bills’ starting defensive unit last weekend while also getting extended time against legitimate backups and struggled in the passing game by completing only 50% of his passes while averaging 3.1 yards per attempt.

There is an important distinguishment that Bears fans are failing to make with Bagent.

Walker lost his backup quarterback job due to his inability to look competent in both training camp and pre-season games. Had Walker had even the slightest amount of success, Bagent would be looking at either the No. 3 quarterback spot or waived with the hope of sticking around on the practice squad.

If the Bears are planning on contending for playoff spots this season, then there must be a veteran quarterback brought in before the start of the season. Otherwise, Bagent is going to be exposed the second that he is forced into extended playing time this season.

NFC SOUTH

NEW ORLEANS

WR MICHAEL THOMAS says that one of the reason he took so long to get back to form was that his body rejected “hardware.”  Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com:

The New Orleans Saints are preparing for wide receiver Michael Thomas to enter the 2023 season fully healthy after toe and ankle injuries limited him to 10 regular-season games over the past three years.

Thomas had surgery in 2021 to repair a torn deltoid and other ligaments in his left ankle after he was injured in the 2020 season opener. He also needed surgery in 2022 after he dislocated the second toe on his right foot in the third game of the 2022 season.

Thomas said one of the issues with the surgeries was the way his body failed to respond to the hardware inserted to help him heal.

“I don’t want to use this as an excuse,” Thomas told ESPN. “But also, when you get surgeries and they put hardware in, sometimes your body rejects the hardware.”

When asked if he meant his ankle, Thomas specified it happened twice, slowing down the healing process.

“With both,” he said.

He added: “Your body responds and healing responds to it. Whatever, I guess is, the 1%? I guess I’m in that category.”

Thomas tried to rehab his ankle without surgery in the 2021 offseason and had surgery in June of 2021 when it failed to respond. He did not play that season after he had what was initially described as a “small setback” following the surgery.

The Saints thought initially that Thomas could come back from the toe injury without surgery after he went down on Sept. 25, but put him on injured reserve in November with the conclusion that he needed surgery. The hardware in his toe was removed in the offseason, according to Saints coach Dennis Allen, putting him on track to fully return to practice at the start of training camp.

Saints quarterbacks coach Ronald Curry, who was Thomas’ wide receivers coach from 2018 to 2020, described the response after the ankle injury as a “stress reaction” to the hardware.

“He did nothing wrong, his body just didn’t react to the surgeries like it should have,” Curry told ESPN.

AFC NORTH

CINCINNATI

The Bengals must have liked what they saw from QB WILL GRIER in his swan song with Dallas.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Former Cowboys quarterback Will Grier, who lost his spot when the team traded for Trey Lance, has a new home.

Grier will sign with the Bengals’ practice squad, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.com.

A third-round pick of the Panthers in 2019, Grier has spent two years in Carolina and two years in Dallas. He started two games for the Panthers as a rookie in his only regular-season game experience.

Cowboys starter Dak Prescott expressed affection for Grier when discussing the trade that resulted in Grier being released. It was another factor that made the decision to bring in a new third-string quarterback two weeks before the first regular-season game even more confusing.

Grier becomes QB3 in Cincinnati, given that the Bengals kept only Joe Burrow and Jake Browning on the active roster. If Burrow, who has a calf injury, can’t play in Week 1 at Cleveland, Grier would likely be called up to the active roster, where he would serve as the backup to Browning.

Wait!  Someone named JAKE BROWNING could be an NFL Week 1 starter?  Who is this person? He beat out QB TREVOR SIEMIAN who we know (or at least it sounds like Siemian lost the job).  Russ Heltman of SI.com:

The Bengals released quarterback Trevor Siemian on Tuesday. Cincinnati is down to Joe Burrow and Jake Browning after Siemian failed to win the backup quarterback job following his signing this offseason.

Siemian had the worst preseason of his career by passer rating (55.7) and didn’t outplay Browing in any game.

He finished the three-game run 36-of-65 for 316 passing yards and two interceptions. It will be interesting to see if Cincinnati scoops up another quarterback that gets released on Tuesday.

Matt Severance of SportsLine.com:

Siemian was signed to a one-year deal in March after the Bengals let their primary 2022 Burrow backup, Brandon Allen, sign with the 49ers this offseason. The Bengals are also waiving QB Reid Sinnett, although they are interested in a practice squad deal with him. They could do the same with Siemian, although he may get claimed.

The 27-year-old Browning had a terrific career at the University of Washington, including winning Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year honors in 2016, but was undrafted in 2019 and eventually signed with Minnesota. He has spent each of the past two seasons on Cincinnati’s practice squad. This preseason, he has completed 71.1% of his passes for 277 yards, a TD and two picks for a rating of 75.9. That’s not very good, either.

It’s possible Cincinnati scoops up another quarterback who gets released Tuesday, but Allen is expected to stay in San Francisco after the 49ers traded Trey Lance. The deadline for NFL teams to cut rosters down to 53 players is 4 p.m. ET.

AFC SOUTH

INDIANAPOLIS

The Colts did not reach a deal they were comfortable with for disgruntled RB JONATHAN TAYLOR despite interest from Miami and Green Bay.  Or so Stephen Holder of ESPN.com is told:

The Miami Dolphins weren’t the only team interested in acquiring Jonathan Taylor from the Indianapolis Colts.

The Green Bay Packers also were in talks with the Colts and had legitimate interest in trading for the star running back, sources told ESPN.

Indianapolis moved forward after its self-imposed deadline of Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET came and went without receiving what the team deemed an acceptable offer for Taylor, who requested a trade last month and was authorized by the Colts last week to seek out a trade partner.

But the Packers emerging as a contender remains relevant because Taylor can still be traded, even though he is on the reserve/physically unable to perform list and therefore must miss at least the first four games of the regular season.

A source told ESPN that there is still trade interest in Taylor and the All-Pro would still welcome a trade. The NFL’s trade deadline is Oct. 31.

The Dolphins, sources said, also were in talks with the Colts and discussed several possible deals — including deals that involved draft picks and players — but none of those proposals enticed the Colts to act. It remains unclear what the Packers offered or what their level of interest might be moving forward.

The Packers have three running backs on their initial 53-man roster: veterans Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon along with undrafted rookie Emanuel Wilson.

Jones, 28, is under contract through 2024 but agreed to take a $5 million pay cut this offseason. The 2020 Pro Bowler will make $11 million this season, including an $8.52 million signing bonus that was paid at the time of his restructure. Jones is due to make $12 million next season, although none of that its guaranteed.

Dillon, 25, was a second-round draft selection in 2020 and is entering the final year of his rookie deal.

The Packers would’ve studied Taylor closely. Not only was he a college star at the nearby University of Wisconsin, where the Packers sent a strong contingent to scout, but Green Bay also was in the market for a running back in 2020 — the year Taylor was draft-eligible.

But the Colts selected Taylor with the 41st overall pick that year, well ahead of the Packers, who selected quarterback Jordan Love in the first round and ended up picking Dillon at No. 62 overall.

The Colts informed Taylor in May that they would not be extending his rookie contract until after the season, the final year of his deal. Upon reporting for training camp, Taylor informed the Colts that he had lingering ankle issues from a January surgery and requested a trade.

The next steps for Taylor could be quite consequential. According to the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement, Taylor’s contract would toll for 2023 if he’s still on the PUP list as of Week 6 and doesn’t return to the active roster at some point this season. Taylor is scheduled to become a free agent in the spring, provided he earns an accrued season.

JACKSONVILLE

Tuesday was a tougher day than even most cutdown days for Coach Doug Pederson.  Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com:

Cut-down day in the NFL is always a hard one on head coaches. Having to tell a player they weren’t good enough to make the team is tough.

It must be even tougher when it’s your son.

That’s what Jaguars coach Doug Pederson had to do Tuesday. His son, tight end Josh Pederson, was among the players the Jaguars waived.

It wasn’t an unexpected move — Josh Pederson was fifth on the depth chart, and the team opted to keep only three tight ends — but it still probably made for a bit of an awkward conversation.

Asked Monday if he wanted to be the person who told his son he was going to be cut if that were the decision, Doug Pederson joked that he has had to give his son some bad news before.

“I spanked him at one point,” Doug Pederson said with a laugh. “Same thing.”

Then he got serious and said he and general manager Trent Baalke would treat Josh Pederson the same as any player they cut.

“I’d want to tell him,” Doug Pederson said. “Trent would want to visit with him as well, and I definitely want to talk to him and just let him know — I mean, he’s been through this process before with a couple other teams last year. And I’m very familiar with it, obviously, as a former player, and walk him through the process and and let him know that everything’s going to be OK.”

Josh Pederson played for the USFL’s Houston Gamblers in the spring, catching 24 passes for 325 yards in 10 games. The Gamblers terminated his contract in early July so he could sign with a then-unnamed NFL team, which turned out to be the Jaguars.

Pederson has never appeared in an NFL regular-season game but spent time on the rosters of the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints in 2021 and with the Kansas City Chiefs last season. Josh Pederson also followed his father in college, playing four seasons for UL Monroe, where he caught 99 passes for 1,191 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Doug Pederson played at Louisiana-Monroe (then called Northeast Louisiana) from 1987 to 1990, setting 15 school passing records and 15 single-game passing records, including most passing yards in a game (619). He was inducted into the school’s hall of fame in 2002.

TENNESSEE

The Titans trade for aging, but accurate, PK NICK FOLK while the Patriots go with the young leg.  The Athletic:

The New England Patriots traded kicker Nick Folk to the Tennessee Titans on Tuesday, the teams announced. Here’s what you need to know:

The Patriots received a 2025 seventh-round draft pick in the deal.

Folk, 38, spent the past four seasons with New England. He made 86.5 percent of his field goal attempts (32 of 37) in 2022.

New England selected Maryland kicker Chad Ryland in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

The Athletic’s instant analysis:

Why New England made the move

Bill Belichick has raved about Folk and the steadiness he has brought to a phase of the game the Patriots care about so deeply. He’s still so consistent inside 45 yards.

But the Patriots were hurt last season by the lack of a strong-legged kicker, namely when they couldn’t boot the ball through the end zone in Buffalo in Week 18 as the Bills returned two kicks for touchdowns. So the Patriots drafted Ryland, arguably the rookie kicker with the strongest leg, in the fourth round. He may not be as consistent as Folk, but offers more distance. The Patriots hope he’s the next in an (indirect) line of great kickers from Adam Vinatieri to Stephen Gostkowski to Folk. — Graff

How Folk fits with the Titans

The Titans have been searching aimlessly for a long-term kicking solution since letting Ryan Succop go after the 2019 season — a season that saw him struggle after he was activated off injured reserve — and watching him return to excellence and win a ring with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Folk, the Titans are settling for another short-term fix, but that’s the right play given the “one last run” theme of this season.

Randy Bullock was decent the past two seasons but was not reliable beyond 50 yards. Folk was 4-for-5 beyond 50 last season and 12-for-17 in four excellent seasons with the Pats. The Pats are upgrading on leg strength in moving on from Folk, but so are the Titans in acquiring him. — Rexrode

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

S DEMAR HAMLIN did indeed make the final roster.  Tim Graham of The Athletic:

Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin made the team’s 53-man roster on Tuesday as the team released 27 players on cutdown day. Here’s what you need to know:

The 25-year-old Hamlin was listed as the team’s backup safety with Cam Lewis throughout Bills training camp and preseason games. Micah Hyde was listed as the starter on the team’s unofficial depth chart.

Hamlin, Buffalo’s 2021 sixth-round pick, has practiced throughout training camp and played in preseason games after collapsing and going into cardiac arrest during the Jan. 2 “Monday Night Football” matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals last season.

Hamlin checked every health box

Heading into training camp, the Bills were committed to listening to Hamlin and going at the player’s pace both physically and mentally, knowing that his progress could veer from linear expectations. But along the way, Hamlin checked every box. He went through the non-padded ramp-up period to begin camp, was a full participant in padded practices immediately and was a willing tackler and special teams player in full-contact preseason games.

All summer long, Hamlin didn’t miss a single practice. Knowing he couldn’t hesitate on the field, he never shied away from contact. As soon as the Bills saw Hamlin successfully go through full-contact preseason games, the safety making the roster was a foregone conclusion. It would have been an outright shock had he not made the team, which is a testament to Hamlin’s recovery and comeback attempt from a night no one will forget. — Buscaglia

Full-go for Hamlin

Hamlin made the Bills’ 53-man roster about three weeks ago, when he flew around Highmark Stadium field, seemingly without a medical care in the world, in the preseason opener.

Hamlin flung himself at the Colts. There was no doubt he had overcome whatever mental and emotional issues might’ve lingered from his cardiac arrest. The Bills could monitor Hamlin’s physical recovery through those seven months, but coach Sean McDermott admitted anxiety entering that first preseason game. He double-checked with Hamlin the night before and with doctors before observing Hamlin’s first attempt against a live opponent.

But within a few full-go plays it was evident Hamlin had cleared the hurdles. McDermott even had Hamlin blitz on the safety’s third and fourth snaps, the latter a fourth-down tackle for no gain. He was back pretty much right there and then.

Over three exhibitions, he made 10 tackles in 80 defensive snaps. Just as crucial, he lined up on most of the special teams units for another 19 snaps. As the fourth safety on a team that usually keeps only four, Hamlin must contribute in that high-collision, no-time-to-think world of kicks and coverages. — Graham

NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots zapped all but one QB from their roster. Eric Edholm of NFL.com:

In a surprising move, the New England Patriots have cut quarterback Bailey Zappe a year after selecting him in Round 4 of the 2022 NFL Draft, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported on Tuesday.

The Patriots weren’t done shaking up their QB room on Tuesday’s deadline for teams to reduce their rosters to 53 as they also waived rookie QB/WR Malik Cunningham, NFL Network Insider Tom Pelissero reported. The two moves leave New England currently with one QB on its roster: starter Mac Jones.

Zappe appeared in four games, starting two as a rookie for the Patriots in 2022. He replaced an injured Brian Hoyer against the Packers, taking Green Bay to overtime before losing. Zappe also started in victories over the Lions and Browns and replaced an ineffective Jones the following week in a loss to the Bears. In that Monday night game, Patriots fans chanted “Zappe” in unison as a response to his brief heroics and Jones’ struggles.

There was even a point this offseason where Patriots head coach Bill Belichick was fielding questions about whether there would be a QB competition in training camp this year between Zappe and Jones. That never materialized, with Jones receiving starter’s reps all throughout camp.

Now Zappe is set to hit the waiver wire and is likely to receive interest from around the NFL. As a rookie, he completed 65 of 92 passes (70.7%) for 781 yards, five TDs and three picks. This preseason, Zappe played far more than any other Patriots QB, completing 30 of 51 passes (58.8%) for 253 yards and one TD, while also taking six sacks.

The Patriots selected Zappe 137th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft before 2023 NFL starters Sam Howell (Commanders) and Brock Purdy (49ers). Zappe set school records at both Houston Baptist and Western Kentucky with his passing proficiency, setting the NCAA record with 62 passing TDs in his only season with the Hilltoppers in 2021.

Cunningham signed with the Patriots as an undrafted free agent out of Louisville, working at both QB and wide receiver with the Patriots. He made a few highlight plays in the preseason, capturing some Patriots fans’ imaginations, but completed only 3 of 6 passes for 19 yards and ran six times for 39 yards and one touchdown. Cunningham also caught one pass for minus-1 yard.

It’s possible Cunningham will revert to the Patriots’ practice squad if he goes unclaimed on the waiver wire.

THIS AND THAT

TOP 10 SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS

Austin Mock of The Athletic prides himself on his secret sauce projections.  And he has the Lions, Jaguars and Saints in his top 10 Super Bowl contenders – but not the Seahawks, Dolphins or Jets.  Here is why he says each will and will not win:

The start of the NFL season is a little more than a week away and that means we get to put our final thoughts on paper when it comes to identifying the true contenders across the league. Each team enters Week 1 with a few key factors that will ultimately determine whether they have a successful season. This exercise will focus on what I believe will be the reason a certain team wins the Super Bowl or why they fall short.

So where do you cut off these so-called contenders that I’m going to highlight? Well, over the last handful of seasons, the longest preseason odds for an eventual Super Bowl champion was +4000, the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles per SportsOddsHistory.com. That equates to about a 2.4% implied probability before removing the vig. So for this exercise, I’m going to look at the 10 most likely teams to win the Super Bowl, per my NFL Projection Model’s simulation, as they’re the teams the model gives at least a 3.0% chance.

Kansas City Chiefs (15.1% chance to win Super Bowl)

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

Do I need to say more about why the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl? Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL by a pretty decent margin and if he plays to his ability, the AFC’s road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

The defense ends up being a liability, and with the quarterback talent in the AFC, the offense can only do so much before they get tripped up. Chris Jones’ contract situation is something to monitor as his holding out or being moved would be a big hit to the Chiefs’ Super Bowl hopes.

Philadelphia Eagles (15.1%)

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

The offensive and defensive lines are second to none and controlling the line of scrimmage makes life even easier for Jalen Hurts and their talented skills corps. The Eagles were dominant in the trenches last season and we saw how efficient they were, finishing as one of two NFL teams to rank among the Top 6 in both offensive and defensive EPA/play, per TruMedia.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

There was a lot of personnel turnover for the Eagles this offseason (including losing both coordinators) and things just don’t gel the way they did last season. Hurts had the best season of his young career in 2022 and with defenses adjusting, we see some regression. The Eagles also ranked 17th and 20th in defensive EPA and success rate against the run, respectively, last season. If opposing offenses continue that trend, Philly’s elite pass rush could be neutralized a bit as well.

San Francisco 49ers (9.3%)

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

Brock Purdy returns from injury and picks up where he left off last season. The 49ers defense will likely be a Top-10 unit so a lot will fall on the quarterback play. Purdy was fifth in EPA/dropback last season, per TruMedia, and if he manages to maintain his trajectory in his sophomore season, the 49ers will push the Chiefs for best offense in the league.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

I don’t love saying “this team’s quarterback play” for the reason, but the 49ers really feel like that team this year. The roster is one of the best in the NFL, but San Francisco is putting a lot on the shoulders of a seventh-round pick coming off of a major injury. Purdy was awesome last year, no doubt, but after opposing defenses have a full offseason to adjust to his tendencies, his level of play dropping off is probably more likely than not.

Dallas Cowboys (8.9%)

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

Because Dak Prescott and this offense have ranked among the league’s best over the last handful of seasons. Prescott was a little unlucky with interceptions last season and the Cowboys were still productive. Dallas will have a new offensive system this season and I fully expect Prescott to be a pleasant surprise as he leads the Cowboys through the weaker NFC.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

Well, they’re the Cowboys. Kidding, of course — maybe. Offensive personnel changes end up being too much to overcome to dethrone the Eagles and 49ers as the NFC’s best. The Cowboys moved on from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore in the offseason and also lost some offensive line depth.

Buffalo Bills (8.9%)

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid unlocks this offense’s potential as he allows the Bills to be more diverse than in previous seasons. Josh Allen is one of the most dynamic weapons in the NFL and if Kincaid creates matchup issues for opposing defenses, the inconsistency that we have recently seen from the Buffalo offense disappears.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

The defense continues to falter in the postseason. There have been concerns about the Bills beating up on the poor offenses in the AFC East for a few years and that’s gained some steam after Buffalo gave up an average of 29.3 points per game the last two postseasons. If the Bills are not able to get stops when the season is on the line, they will be going home early in January.

Cincinnati Bengals (5.9%)

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

The Bengals find the extra gear in the playoffs. Sure, they’ve had playoff success the last two seasons, but I think Cincinnati’s results could have been even better considering the talent on this roster. In their seven postseason games the last two seasons, the Bengals’ offense has averaged just over 22 points per game — a number that I think they can improve on — and have been outgained by their opponent in five of them. If Joe Burrow and this offense play to their abilities, a Super Bowl will be the end result.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

Joe Burrow starts the season at less than 100% and it forces the Bengals to play catchup all season long in the AFC gauntlet. The AFC North and conference as a whole are both better so every week will be crucial to securing a playoff berth. If Burrow isn’t at his best to start the season and Cincinnati drops some early games, I’m not sure the Bengals can rally back in the final eight weeks of the regular season and make a postseason run.

Baltimore Ravens (5.0%)

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

New offensive coordinator Todd Monken ran the offense for back-to-back national championship teams at Georgia and a big part of his success was getting the most out of quarterback Stetson Bennett III. If he’s able to do the same with Lamar Jackson, the Ravens are going to be very successful. The Ravens offense has been stale at times over the past few seasons and getting Jackson back to an MVP level of play would make Baltimore one of the AFC’s best.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

The Ravens’ defensive backfield caught the injury bug during training camp and it could really affect their season. Similarly to the Bengals, if the defense struggles early and the offense takes some time to put it all together, the Ravens could dig themselves a hole too big to climb out of by the time their defensive backfield gets back to full strength.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3.1%)

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

Trevor Lawrence takes a big jump in the second “real” season of his career (hard to fault him for his rookie season under Urban Meyer) and the Jaguars take advantage of a weak schedule to secure the top seed in the AFC. The Jags have a very real shot at earning the bye in the AFC playoffs, and if they’re playing that well, this offense can take down anyone in the NFL.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

Defense. The Jaguars had an average unit last year and I’m not sure they did enough to move the needle for me on that side of the ball. Jacksonville gave up at least 24 points in nine games last season including both games in the postseason. No matter how good your offense is, if your defense can’t generate stops, you’re not going to last long in the playoffs.

Detroit Lions (3.1%)

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

Because the upgrades the Lions made on defense pay immediate dividends and everything doesn’t rest on the offense’s shoulders. Detroit selected linebacker Jack Campbell and safety Brian Branch in hopes they can make an immediate impact as rookies, and though the picks probably weren’t strong in terms of long-term value, the players likely provide value for this season as contributors to an improved defensive unit.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

Jared Goff has a repeat of his Rams’ career with an early peak under a smart offensive mind followed by a decline. The book has been out on Goff for a while now and though he was very successful in his first season with Detroit (fourth in EPA/dropback), the league has had an entire offseason to adjust. The Lions have a strong offensive line, good receiving options and a great offensive coordinator, but Goff continuing to play like a Top-5 quarterback is unlikely to continue.

New Orleans Saints (3.1%)

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

Derek Carr benefits greatly from a change of scenery and the Saints ride the NFL’s weakest schedule to a home game or two in the playoffs. The NFC is weak enough for a surprise team to make a run, but I’m a little skeptical of my model’s fondness for the Saints. However, with its favorable schedule, New Orleans has enough pieces to make some noise if Carr does see an uptick in efficiency. Can the Saints make a Matthew Stafford-and-the-Rams-type run? It’s not impossible.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

Because an average team can’t consistently win against the best NFL teams. There is a decent chance the Saints get to host a playoff game with how weak the NFC South is, but can they beat one — or possibly two — of the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys? Just doesn’t seem likely to me. Even with Carr improving, a home playoff loss is their most likely outcome.

Next in line: Chargers (2.9%), Dolphins (2.6%), Vikings (2.6%), Jets (2.5%), Seahawks (2.1%) and Browns (1.5%).

BROADCAST NEWS

Are the NFL, Amazon and Nielsen playing games to juice the Thusday Night ratings?

Nielsen’s proposed new approach to determining viewership for Amazon’s Thursday Night Football is frustrating executives at other networks. At one network, the executive in charge of the sports operation has sounded off.

Via Richard Deitsch of TheAthletic.com, CBS Sports Chairman Sean McManus shared his views on the issue during a Tuesday conference call.

“A fair and accurate audience measurement across all platforms, as you know, is absolutely vital to our industry,” McManus said. “Anything that is not impartial and unbiased is unacceptable to us. I must say that we think it’s extremely odd and unfortunate that different rules are suddenly applying to one platform. I’ll leave it at that statement.”

Last year, Amazon’s internal numbers were 18 percent higher than the ratings calculated by Nielsen.This year, Nielsen will use data from Amazon in crafting the numbers, and the numbers will be higher.

Nielsen has offered to do the same thing for the streaming services maintained by other networks. Other networks have suggested that the offer is hollow and meaningless, with no specific steps identified on how to go about doing it. Nielsen has dismissed that concern as “silly.”

The NFL’s support of the new approach makes the situation more intriguing, since it pits the league against multiple broadcast partners on this issue. From the NFL’s perspective, however, the goal is obvious — keep the streaming numbers as high as possible, so that NFL games will be as valuable as possible when it’s time to put the packages out for bidding, again.

More from Dietsch:

The networks and the Video Advertising Bureau have challenged both the agreement and the accelerated timing of an audit by the Media Rating Council, which will consider the Nielsen/Amazon plan on August 30. Just in time for Week 1. The networks believe the MRC will rubber stamp the new approach to TNF.

VAB CEO Sean Cunningham argues that the approach is unfair to the non-Amazon providers, calling Amazon’s numbers “inherently biased” and accusing Nielsen of being “completely opaque as to how these numbers were cooked up in the first place” in its failure to fully explain the change to other network customers.

Last year, Amazon’s internal data showed viewership 18 percent higher than the Nielsen numbers for the 15 regular-season games broadcast on Prime Video.

Via AdAge.com, the combined data will look “a lot more like” Amazon’s numbers as to total households watching. The total viewership numbers will be “more like splitting the difference” between Amazon and Nielsen, with the blended numbers roughly nine percent higher than the Nielsen measurements.

The NFL is supporting the effort, for obvious reasons. While it won’t enhance the massive payment the league receives from Amazon for the package, it’s critical for the league to retain as much of the audience as possible as it pivots from traditional networks to streaming platforms. Those numbers will drive the next wave of negotiations with all networks and streaming companies.

Cunningham accused Nielsen of putting a “thumb on the scale” for Amazon, in the hopes of cozying up to one of the companies that will be at the heart of the future of TV and sports programming.

Fox executive Mile Mulvihill was far more blunt: “Nielsen is about to sacrifice its most valuable attribute — impartiality — to benefit one client, one program and one content supplier,” he tweeted, via Ourand. “Reckless, wrongheaded and a slap in the face to the largest Nielsen clients and NFL partners.”

2024 DRAFT

Nick Baumgardner and Diante Lee of The Athletic tee up a 2024 Mock Draft:

Last week, The Athletic draft guru Dane Brugler teed up his preseason 2024 NFL Draft rankings. This week, Austin Mock released his projected win totals for every NFL team.

The natural next step? Our first mock draft of the season.

And, no surprise here, the quarterback prospects look like they will again drive the conversation between now and April. There are several other very talented prospects who could storm the top 10 — maybe even top five — before all is done, though.

How does it all play out right before college football gets in full swing? Using an order built off those win totals, draft experts Diante Lee (selecting for teams on the odd numbers) and Nick Baumgardner (on the evens) take a look.

1. Arizona Cardinals: Caleb Williams, QB, USC

After a phenomenal, Heisman-winning 2022 campaign, Williams got a head start on the rest of the QB class with an efficient four-TD performance against San Jose State on Saturday. I made mention of it during that game, but I’m intrigued to see whether Williams is saving his legs and throws into tight windows for the opponents that require his best play — or if he’s trying to prove that he’s the best pocket passer in this class, too.

2. Chicago Bears: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Justin Fields’ final receiving corps at Ohio State was one of the most talented college football has seen in years: Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jameson Williams. Harrison, whom Fields missed by one year, already has been better in college than any of those current NFL players. Bears fans aren’t going to love this win total, but they will love the idea of landing this guy.

3. Arizona Cardinals (via Houston): Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State

You almost never see a potential first-round talent like Verse return to school when he’s draft-eligible, but I don’t expect the extra attention and expectations to stall Verse’s 2023 performance. After transferring to Florida State from Albany, his 17 tackles for loss and 9 sacks last season earned him all-conference honors. Verse is a twitchy edge rusher with the flexibility to bend and the motor to win with effort and counters. Short of injury, it’s hard to see a pass rusher of his caliber falling out of the top five next April.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

Had Fashanu left school last year (as many expected he would), it’s possible he’d have gone in the top 10. A massive human with elite length, Fashanu plays with terrific balance and lateral quickness as a lightning-quick pass protector. We need to see a nastier finish in the run game this season, but Fashanu has every tool. He’s definitely a player the Colts could use.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

We’re not trading picks in this mock draft, but let’s be clear: No team is getting access to a quarterback as talented as Maye without trading into the top three (and I’m looking at Chicago as a trade-back option).

Maye has an impressive combination of physical gifts and control of his offense, as he rarely makes poor decisions or throws inaccurate passes. He navigates the pocket well and knows when to escape, and he has the speed to punish a defense when its back is turned. With his potential, Maye could become one of the new, young “supercomputer” types in the pocket — think Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence or Dak Prescott.

6. New England Patriots: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

Mims could wind up leapfrogging Fashanu for OT1 in this class before we get to draft week. The Georgia lineman, who turns 21 in October, is still very light on experience. He moves like Fashanu, though, and at 6-foot-7 and 330 pounds is actually the bigger prospect. New England loves athletic linemen; Mims is that and then some.

7. New York Giants: Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama

You could flip the order between Turner and Verse in this class, and I wouldn’t blink an eye — both edge rushers have star potential. During his first two years at Alabama, Turner lined up opposite Will Anderson Jr., and still produced a combined 12.5 sacks and 18 tackles for loss. This season is an opportunity for Turner to cash in on his potential as a freaky speed rusher and cement himself in the top-five conversation.

8. Chicago Bears (via Carolina): J.T. Tuimoloau, Edge, Ohio State

The Bears should be in a very good spot next spring, perhaps not unlike what Detroit just enjoyed. The 2024 first-round pick they acquired from Carolina  this year (so the Panthers could take Bryce Young) might land even higher than this slot. For now, we’ve got GM Ryan Poles selecting the draft’s best non-QB (Harrison) and a high-floor pass rusher with room to grow.

9. Los Angeles Rams: Riley Leonard, QB, Duke

Outside of Williams and Maye, Leonard is the 2024 QB I’m willing to bet the house on. He checks the box on every necessary tool needed to thrive in today’s NFL: arm talent to make every throw, agility to evade rushers and speed to create offense as a scrambler. At 20 years old, he’s not close to being a finished product. He needs to add touch to his passing portfolio to beat zone coverage, but everything else you’d want to see is there.

10. Washington Commanders: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

It should be a good year to need a quarterback. Williams and Maye could go 1-2, while Leonard, McCarthy and Quinn Ewers all have first-round tools. Their performances this season — and the order in which QB-needy teams fall — will determine how this shakes out. But new Washington OC Eric Bieniemy can find a talent upgrade next spring.

11. Las Vegas Raiders: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

The most talented coverage player in this class, McKinstry should be in any top-10 conversation between now and April. His size and length allow him to play aggressively at the line of scrimmage and at the catch point, plus he has the hip fluidity to cover the entire route tree. He hasn’t produced much in the way of turnovers in his career (two interceptions), but he has enough ball skills (15 passes defended last season) and return abilities to make game-changing plays.

12. Green Bay Packers: JC Latham, OT, Alabama

Latham also figures to be in the discussion for OT1 next spring, so Green Bay adding to an already exciting, young O-line and landing him at No. 12 would be outstanding value. Another incredibly long tackle, Latham might be the safest of the trio taken so far (including Fashanu and Mims) — and possibly the best run blocker on the board. He’d be perfect for the wide zones in Green Bay.

13. Denver Broncos: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Positional value and projected team needs are the only reasons Bowers falls out of the top 10 in this mock draft. And sending him to a play caller like Sean Payton is too good an opportunity to pass on.

Bowers is like a 6-4, 240-pound Cooper Kupp — he’s way too talented to be guarded by even a defense’s best safety, linebacker or slot corner. He creates more offense after the catch than you’d expect of a tight end and has the potential to run a full route tree. He won’t be a total bully in the run game, but he’s good enough to stay on the field for all three downs.

14. Seattle Seahawks: Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State

Penn State people are already tossing around Micah Parsons comps here, which can get a little dangerous. However, Robinson’s versatile athleticism and twitch are reminiscent of the former Nittany Lions and current Cowboys star. Robinson posted a near 20-percent win rate last season. He is mostly untapped potential at the moment, but he’s got a lot of it.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

Joey Porter Jr. has looked like a stud in coverage so far, but the Pittsburgh Steelers don’t have much around him at cornerback. Levi Wallace — a good value signing — has a contract which expires after 2023, and Patrick Peterson has too many miles on his body not to evaluate him on a year-to-year basis.

With as much press coverage as the Steelers like to play, Wiggins would be an easy fit. He is more of a technician than a physical corner, but he’s smooth enough to handle the entire route tree and, at 6-2, would help give Pittsburgh long-term answers on the perimeter.

16. Atlanta Falcons: Kalen King, CB, Penn State

Some NFL scouts viewed King as equal to or even better than Porter, his former teammate, as a prospect. King’s play in man coverage was not only just as physical as Porter’s, it also was more efficient. A Detroit native, King ranked No. 20 nationally last year with 18 pass breakups.

17. Minnesota Vikings: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

There already seems to be some anxiety from Vikings fans over Andrew Booth Jr.’s long-term outlook, and this defensive backfield desperately needs more talent. DeJean is versatile in coverage, comfortable playing in the slot or on the perimeter — and he can play safety if he’s needed. His best traits are his change of direction and short-area quickness, and we saw in 2022 that he’s among the best in this class at playing the ball in the air (five INTs).

18. Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

Another good, young offensive tackle prospect, Alt could wind up much higher than 18 come spring. The son of former Chiefs star lineman John Alt, he played QB, linebacker and tight end in high school before committing as a 260-pound OT. He’s still reshaping his body and power, but his ceiling is very high.

19. Miami Dolphins: Patrick Paul, OT, Houston

Paul is a big guy — and that may serve as the entire scouting report. At 6-7 with an 85-plus inch wingspan (per our draft guru, Dane Brugler), Paul eventually will walk into the NFL with the measurables needed to handle any kind of athlete on the edge. Miami would take any insurance it can find at this position, too: Terron Armstead is aging and struggling to stay healthy, Austin Jackson hasn’t delivered, and the backup tackles are a problem. While he improves his lower-body strength, Paul can thrive in a zone scheme that uses play action.

20. Detroit Lions: Josh Newton, CB, TCU

There was not a full-time cornerback in college football who was better playing man coverage last year, with fewer mistakes and penalties, than Newton. A highly confident cover corner who never loses himself in coverage, Newton’s speed is enough to run with anybody, and his competitiveness is exactly what a team like Detroit is looking for at the position.

21. Houston Texans (via Cleveland): Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

Building the modern Shanahan-style offense requires an explosive yards-after-catch player to feed via play action, and Nabers may be the best receiver in this class with the ball in his hands. He’s tough enough to work through tight windows in the middle of the field, and he’s an asset in contested-catch situations. Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud needs a go-to guy on the perimeter as soon as he can get it — preferably, one on the same kind of development timeline — and Nabers has star potential.

22. Los Angeles Chargers: Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

The explosive 295-pound Newton finished No. 2 in pressures (59) among FBS defensive tackles last season, and he picked up 14 tackles for loss during his sophomore campaign, on a ferocious defense. Newton plays with a terrific motor and is violent at the point of attack. His hustle and ability to cause disruption would be great in Brandon Staley’s scheme.

23. New York Jets: Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami

Kinchens is a rangy playmaker at safety, and that’s one of the only pieces missing from Robert Saleh’s Jets defense. Kinchens has the necessary instincts to affect the passing game from the middle of the field — it felt as though each of his six interceptions last season came from having an early bead on the quarterback’s intentions. He’s a willing tackler and will drop the hammer on ball carriers, but it’s not always technically sound, which makes 2023 an important year for Kinchens to round out his game.

24. New Orleans Saints: Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas

It’s very possible that we’re way too low on Ewers here. The Vikings could be intrigued, along with teams like Denver or even Atlanta. Like McCarthy and Leonard, Ewers has top-20 potential. Also like McCarthy, specifically, he’s more arm talent than polish right now. But he also hasn’t had a full season as a healthy starter yet. Ewers also won’t turn 21 until next March.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Maason Smith, DT, LSU

We haven’t really seen Maason Smith since 2021, after he missed almost all of last year with an ACL tear. And he’s been suspended for LSU’s season-opener against Florida State for receiving improper benefits.

However, what Smith produced during his freshman season was enough to grab everyone’s attention. At 6-5, 300, he has explosive strength, as well as a high ceiling as a pass rusher because of his athletic traits. Smith spent some time out at defensive end in 2021 — which is a bit too far from the ball given his size — but you could see his ability to anchor in the run game. NFL scouts still want to see a higher motor from Smith, but the Jaguars might be willing to bet on the tools.

26. San Francisco 49ers: Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU

A member of Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks List,” Suamataia is an incredibly explosive, fast, gigantic human, and he should be able to drop jaws once he gets to the NFL combine. He’s very similar to ex-BYU OT Blake Freeland (Round 4, No. 106 by Indianapolis in April), although Suamataia might be more athletic. Also like Freeland, he has a lot of technique work ahead of him. Kyle Shanahan could have a lot of fun here.

27. Dallas Cowboys: Smael Mondon Jr., LB, Georgia

Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has added some power and versatility to his unit over the years, but speed is still the bedrock principle of his philosophy. Mondon has it in droves. His physical frame is similar to Devin Lloyd’s when he was coming out of Utah, but Mondon’s feel for the game and tackling are much further along. He’s fluid in coverage and projects well as a weakside backer, in the mold of a Dre Greenlaw.

28. Cincinnati Bengals: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

A lot of elite college football players claim they could’ve made a career as a Division I basketball player. We actually have proof with Coleman, who got into six games as a freshman for Tom Izzo at Michigan State. The most athletically gifted X receiver in the class, Coleman, who transferred to Florida State this offseason, could be a lot of fun paired up with Joe Burrow.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas

I’m sure Ravens fans would love to have Baltimore’s edge-rusher rotation bolstered as early as possible, but it’s hard to project guys like Laiatu Latu, Braelen Trice or Jack Sawyer as being the immediate contributors this defense needs. Instead of doing the typical Ravens thing and drafting the best premium-position player, here we’ll add one more weapon for Lamar Jackson and OC Todd Monken in the passing game. Sanders is an ideal option as a flex tight end, with enough long speed and leaping ability to stress a defense up the seams.

30. Buffalo Bills: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

Guyton started out as a DT at TCU before transitioning to the offensive line, and he hasn’t stopped improving since. Another highly athletic offensive tackle with limited experience, Guyton transferred to Oklahoma in 2022 and has just five starts to date. The tools, however, are exactly what you’re looking for in a first-round OT.

31. Philadelphia Eagles: Zak Zinter, G/C, Michigan

The talking point has been discussed ad nauseam, but it bears emphasizing how well-positioned Philadelphia is to turn over its roster from aging veterans to younger, cheaper talent. This franchise does need to focus some draft capital on the offensive line, so a versatile piece like Zinter would be a high-floor option. He could provide quality depth at multiple spots up front while he carves out his own role. Zinter can move well enough to get to the second level, has just enough anchor to help move bodies on double teams and is technically sound as a pass protector.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia

Kirby Smart and Georgia love big, physical, athletic corners. Lassiter is the latest example.

Perhaps a better zone prospect right now, Lassiter plays with great burst and quickness, showing an ability to quickly close on the football in the air. Lassiter could climb higher than this spot by next spring — or, as was the case with Kelee Ringo, he could slide. The thing about Georgia’s corners is that the Bulldogs’ schedule will sort it out for you.