The Daily Briefing Wednesday, August 31, 2022

AROUND THE NFL

DETROIT

When the Lions cut down to 53, the roster only contained one QB.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Lions no longer have a backup quarterback.

After the Lions cut one of their backup quarterbacks, Tim Boyle, they’re cutting the other one, David Blough. That leaves Jared Goff as the only quarterback currently on the Lions’ 53-man roster.

Obviously, Goff won’t be the only quarterback on the roster when the season starts, so the Lions must already know of another quarterback they’re going to bring into the fold. Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports that the Lions plan to sign former 49ers backup Nate Sudfeld.

The Lions’ decision to head into Year 2 of the Brad Holmes/Dan Campbell regime with only Goff and no viable backup at quarterback was surprising: Most people thought when the Lions traded Matthew Stafford for Goff and two first-round picks that they’d draft a quarterback who could develop for the long term while Goff played in the short term.

Instead, the Lions are without a backup quarterback. At least until the transaction wire comes out this afternoon.

After the smoke cleared, the Lions were awarded QB NATE SUDFELD, cut by the 49ers, with a waiver claim.

PHILADELPHIA

When extension conversations went south in New Orleans between the Saints and CB CHAUNCEY GARDNER-JOHNSON, the Eagles swooped in.  Tim McManus of ESPN.com:

The Eagles acquired defensive back Chauncey Gardner-Johnson from the New Orleans Saints on Tuesday.

The Eagles received Gardner-Johnson and the Saints’ 2025 seventh-round draft pick for a 2023 fifth-round draft pick and the latter of their two sixth-round draft picks in 2024.

Gardner-Johnson, who has experience both as a slot corner and safety, is expected to play safety in Philadelphia.

The Eagles created an opening at starting safety before the trade by releasing veteran Anthony Harris. Gardner-Johnson will be paired with Marcus Epps in the back end.

Gardner-Johnson is in the last year of his rookie deal and was seeking a new contract. He did not fully participate in practice during the beginning of camp, sitting out of team drills and at times just doing walk-throughs, effectively holding in while asking for a new deal.

He returned to full participation on Aug. 8 and Allen said at the time that would be the expectation going forward. He was a full participant after that.

Gardner-Johnson had said this summer that he thought he was the best nickel cornerback in the NFL.

The Saints have depth at cornerback after acquiring Bradley Roby in a with the Houston Texans last summer and drafting Alontae Taylor in the second round this year.

Gardner-Johnson, 24, was selected in the fourth round of the 2019 draft by the Saints. He posted a career-high three interceptions last season and added seven passes defensed, two sacks and four tackles for loss. He has 28 passes defensed over three seasons.

Safety was regarded as the thinnest position on an otherwise sound Eagles roster. They signed former San Francisco 49ers safety Jaquiski Tartt to a one-year deal in June, but he had a quiet summer overall and he also was released.

Gardner-Johnson has the range and position flexibility defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon looks for in defensive backs.

Harris, 30, played six seasons with the Minnesota Vikings before signing with the Eagles in free agency in 2021. He had 72 tackles, an interception and three passes defensed over 14 games last season, missing time with multiple injuries.

WASHINGTON

So one of the two bullets that hit RB BRIAN ROBINSON hit his knee – which you might think would mean the end of a running back’s career.  But…this from Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

It may seem strange to describe Commanders running back Brian Robinson as “lucky” after he was minding his own business in his car when two carjackers shot him, but the details of the shooting do suggest that luck was on his side.

Although he was struck twice, Robinson appears to have avoided any major injuries that would affect his football career. According to Mike Garafolo of NFL Network, a bullet passed through his knee without doing any significant damage to ligaments, tendons or bones.

An NFL running back who gets shot in the knee could easily have his career ended, and yet Robinson is remaining on the active 53-player roster. That suggests the Commanders’ medical staff thinks he’ll be ready to play soon.

That’s great news for the team, and even better news for Robinson, who faced a situation that could have been career-ending or even life-ending, and came out of it largely OK.

Robinson, on crutches, returned to the Command Post on Tuesday – and the team kept him on its initial 53-man roster.

ATLANTA

WR CALVIN RIDLEY, suspended for a year by NFL Justice for a football bet, is back in the news as a crime victim.

A prosecutor on Monday announced a sprawling indictment targeting members of what she said is a violent street gang that has been targeting the Atlanta-area homes of famous athletes — including Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley — entertainers and others who flaunt expensive possessions on social media.

Ridley, singer Mariah Carey, Atlanta United goalkeeper Brad Guzan and Marlo Hampton of “The Real Housewives of Atlanta” all had their homes broken into, the indictment says.

The 220-count indictment was filed Aug. 22 and charges 26 people, most of whom are accused of violating Georgia’s anti-gang and racketeering laws.

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis said the crimes alleged in the indictment — carjacking, kidnapping, armed robbery, shootings, home invasions — were committed by members of the Drug Rich gang, which she said began to emerge in 2016 in a neighboring county. In addition to the celebrity targets, social media influencers were also victimized in home invasions and burglaries, Willis said.

“What they do is target people who show their wealth on social media,” she said. “So I do have a message for the public: Where it is kind of fun to put your things on social media and show off, unfortunately these gangs are becoming more savvy, more sophisticated in the way that they target you.”

Willis also had a message for the alleged gang members: “If you thought Fulton was a good county to bring your crime to, to bring your violence to, you are wrong and you are going suffer consequences and today is the start of some of those consequences.”

Ridley’s Instagram account includes multiple images that appear to show him wearing expensive jewelry. The former second-team All-Pro currently is serving an indefinite suspension and will miss at least the entire 2022 season for gambling on NFL games last season.

Willis said the indictment, filed last week, represented a collaboration between law enforcement agencies. Cracking down on gangs is a priority for Willis, and she said she intends to pursue tough penalties for people involved with violent gang activity.

“I am not going to negotiate with gang members. I am not going to allow pleas,” she said. “We are going to find you, we are going to convict you and we’re going to send you to the prison for the rest of your days, and I’m not apologizing for that.”

Hmmm.  Curious how they found the specific addresses of the homes of these showoffs.

SAN FRANCISCO

The DB kind of expected it, especially after the shoulder surgery, but Coach Kyle Shanahan professes to be shocked that QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO is still a Niner.  Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com:

It was about a month ago that San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan began having conversations about what a scenario in which quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo remains with the team might look like.

By that time, Garoppolo’s right shoulder surgery had ruined any chances of an early offseason trade and, as Shanahan put it Tuesday, the NFL’s game of quarterback musical chairs had stopped with most of the other seats filled.

In the first week of camp, Shanahan expressed to Garoppolo that if nothing materialized elsewhere, the team would love to welcome Garoppolo back on a reduced contract to be the backup to first-year starter Trey Lance.

Even then, Shanahan, Lynch and the Niners never thought what happened Monday — when the Niners and Garoppolo agreed to a re-worked one-year contract worth about $7 million and up to $16 million with incentives — was a real possibility.

“The chances were, to me, it seemed slim to none,” Shanahan said. “I remember the first week of training camp me saying to Jimmy like, ‘Hey, if you don’t like any of these opportunities, if you don’t go to the place you want, you can’t get the contract that you want, we would love to have you here as a backup in that deal.’ I want you to know that we feel that way but I also think there’s no way you’re not gonna get something as this goes throughout training camp.”

The belief by both the Niners and Garoppolo was so strong that he would be playing elsewhere that Garoppolo continued his recovery throwing program on the side while the Niners practiced on neighboring fields.

And while Garoppolo was welcome to attend team meetings and practices, he stayed away because of the belief that he’d be playing elsewhere, be it from an injury leading to a trade or a team becoming unsatisfied with its quarterback options.

But as the weeks went by and Garoppolo remained in San Francisco, that never happened. The Cleveland Browns seemed to be a logical landing spot with the suspension of Deshaun Watson but they never made an offer, perhaps joining a list of other teams waiting for the Niners to release Garoppolo before Tuesday’s cutdown to initial 53-man rosters.

According to Shanahan, that’s exactly what the Niners would have done had Garoppolo not agreed to reduce his salary cap number by nearly $18 million for 2022.

“To me, it seems like everyone was just waiting for us to cut him so they could see how much they could get him for,” Shanahan said. “But once the last Saturday preseason game happened and no one got injured, then Jimmy thought this was his best situation that he liked. And that’s why we were so pumped because it’s obviously a better situation for the Niners.

“We were always clear to Jimmy that salary cap wise and a backup role and supporting Trey and that if that worked for him, that was a no brainer for us. We just didn’t think the chances of that were gonna happen. And it ended up being that way. And so, when it was all said and done, even though it was pretty shocking to us, we thought it was a win-win for both sides.”

From the Niners’ perspective, keeping Garoppolo came with multiple advantages. First and foremost, it improved their backup situation behind Lance, who has started just two NFL regular season games. Since Shanahan arrived in 2017, the Niners are 35-16 when Garoppolo starts (including the postseason) and 8-28 with any other signal caller under center.

The Niners intend to keep rookie Brock Purdy as the No. 3 quarterback, which likely leaves veteran Nate Sudfeld as the odd man out.

It also extends the 49ers window to potentially trade Garoppolo should another team have a need for a starting quarterback arise before the Nov. 1 trade deadline. Garoppolo’s contract does include a no-trade clause, which means the situation would have to be appealing enough for him to approve any deal.

For Garoppolo, it means the opportunity to stay in a familiar place in a system in which he’s had success while also rehabilitating his value to other teams before entering free agency in the offseason. Essentially, it eliminated the chances of Garoppolo going to an unknown situation in which myriad variables could make it harder for him to land in a good spot in 2023.

It also gave Garoppolo a longer runway to get his right shoulder healthy knowing that missed practices and meetings won’t throw him off too much because he’s already familiar with Shanahan’s system and his potential pass catchers.

“While doctors cleared him with no restrictions, there was the added caveat that it would be a smart thing to, to really build him up,” Lynch said. “And this allowed him to do that and not be rushed on the field. Sometimes stuff just happened and so more of a controlled environment…

Jimmy’s played a lot of football. We believe he’s ready.”

Indeed, the Niners plan is to get Garoppolo back to practice right away with Shanahan acknowledging that Garoppolo will be Lance’s backup for the Sept. 11 season opener against the Chicago Bears with Purdy as the No. 3.

Shanahan said Tuesday that he had conversations with Lance about Garoppolo returning before the move was made and that Lance was “great” about it and had “no problems with it at all.” The Niners’ hope is that Lance and Garoppolo can be good for each other this season even in a role reversal this year.

The question, of course, is how all of that will manifest if and when Lance struggles and Garoppolo is waiting in the wings. Shanahan reiterated Tuesday that this is Lance’s team and he will get the chance to play through his mistakes.

“We feel very strongly giving the keys to Trey,” Shanahan said. “We were really excited what we thought that could do for our team as a whole. And we’re excited about everything he’s done and all these opportunities gone throughout this season. And I can’t wait to get him started on our team in week one. And having Jimmy there as a backup makes us feel really good because we have a starting quarterback as a backup. The rest of the league had a chance to get him and I just so feel so fortunate that he’s still here in that case.”

LAS VEGAS

OL ALEX LEATHERWOOD heads to the large Raiders subdivision in Bustville.  A tale in four tweets from elite writers:

@TomPelissero

The #Raiders are waiving former first-round pick Alex Leatherwood, per source.

Ian Rapoport

@RapSheet

They tried to trade him to eveyone. Got 32 nos.

@AlbertBreer

Raiders aggressively tried to move him to no avail.  Jermaine Eluemunor is the likely Week 1 starter at right tackle, with rookie Thayer Munford (who’s impressed the staff) having a legit shot to unseat him when he gets healthy and back out at practice.

@AdamSchefter

Alex Leatherwood was the 17th pick in the 2021 draft; Raiders now have to eat $7.9-million against their salary cap.

It does not appear that Jon Gruden spoke about his bad drafting in Little Rock (see below), but Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com takes role:

The Raiders released tackle Alex Leatherwood on Tuesday, just a year after taking him with the 17th overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft. Cutting a first-round draft pick after just one season is a stunning move — except that with Raiders draft picks of the Jon Gruden/Mike Mayock era, it’s actually not much of a surprise.

Gruden was the Raiders’ head coach and Mayock the general manager for three drafts, 2019-2021, and the Raiders made some astonishingly bad selections during that time.

Leatherwood is actually the third consecutive Raiders first-round draft pick not to even make it through two years on the roster: The Raiders had two first-round picks in 2020, Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette, and they were both released during the 2021 season.

The Raiders had three first-round picks in 2019, and those three fared better — but not a lot better: Clelin Ferrell, Josh Jacobs and Johnathan Abram have all struggled to make a major impact, and the Raiders didn’t pick up the fifth-year option on any of their contracts.

And the bad drafting under Gruden and Mayock went beyond the first round. Trayvon Mullen, the Raiders’ 2019 second-round pick, was traded to the Cardinals yesterday for a conditional seventh-round pick. The Raiders had three third-round picks in 2020 — Lynn Bowden, Bryan Edwards and Tanner Muse — and none of them is still with the team, either.

First-year Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler didn’t inherit a lot of good young talent when they took over the team that Gruden and Mayock left behind. The Raiders’ draft picks of recent years have been a lot of misses.

BALTIMORE

RB JK DOBBINS is being touted as a shrewd Fantasy draft pick, but buyer beware for at least the early part of the season as the Ravens sign veteran RB KENYAN DRAKE – who in turn had recently been seen leaving Las Vegas.  The RedZone.org:

With the Baltimore Ravens signing veteran running back Kenyan Drake, there seems to be even more reason to believe that the status of J.K. Dobbins for Week 1 is “certainly in doubt” according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com.

Rapoport mentioned this as part of the reason that Kenyan Drake signed with the Ravens earlier today. The tone and tenor of the reports on Dobbins being ready for Week 1 have been pessimistic for the last week or so, and this is yet another voice adding to that.  There has even been some talk about moving Dobbins to IR after the 53-man roster is set to give him a few more weeks to heal.  Both Drake and journeyman Mike Davis could see the bulk of the carries in the Ravens’ run-heavy offense to start the season.

CINCINNATI

The Bengals will be signing TE O.J. HOWARD, the former Buccaneers first round pick who was cut by the Bills.  This per Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com.

HOUSTON

RB DAMEON PIERCE is a name to know at your Fantasy Draft.  DJ Bien-Amie atESPN.com:

The Houston Texans made a surprise cut and released veteran running back Marlon Mack on Tuesday.

The Texans signed Mack to a one-year deal in March after his four-year stint with the Indianapolis Colts. Mack was relegated to 32 carries over the past two seasons after he tore his Achilles in 2020 and the emergence of Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor last season.

The Texans were hoping Mack could recapture the form he showed from 2018-2019 when he rushed for 1,999 yards and 17 touchdowns to add to the Texans’ running back by committee approach this season. Mack rushed for 90 yards in the preseason on 21 carries.

But with Mack being released, that opens the door for 2022 fourth-round draft pick Dameon Pierce out of Florida, who impressed the organization throughout training camp, to be the lead running back for the Texans.

Pierce rushed for 86 yards in preseason and scored a touchdown in two games. The other lead back in the Texans’ running back room is Rex Burkhead.

In another move Tuesday, the Texans traded 2020 second-round defensive tackle Ross Blacklock and a 2023 seventh-round pick to the Minnesota Vikings for a 2023 sixth-round pick.

Blacklock finished with 2 sacks and totaled 36 tackles with three starts during his two seasons with the Texans.

Blacklock was the Texans’ first pick in the 2020 draft. And that pick came from the trade that sent wideout DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals for running back David Johnson, a second-round pick and a fourth-round pick.

INDIANAPOLIS

RB PHILLIP LINDSAY gets cut.  Joel Erickson of the Indy Star:

The Colts are releasing veteran running back Phillip Lindsay, a league source confirmed to IndyStar on Tuesday, in the first surprising move of the NFL’s reduction to 53 players.

Lindsay, a two-time 1,000-yard rusher in Denver, spent most of training camp running as the No. 3 back behind Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines, and he finished second on the team in rushing in the preseason with 55 yards and a touchdown.

But Lindsay did not factor into the Indianapolis kicking game at all, and the Colts have some experience with the difficulty of rostering a veteran running back who does not provide anything on special teams.

Keep track with us:Colts moves as they cut roster to 53 players

Indianapolis brought back veteran Marlon Mack in 2021 as an insurance policy and kept him on the roster throughout the season, but Mack played just 59 snaps in the first eight games, prompting a beloved Colt to request a trade that ultimately never came to fruition.

With Taylor playing 68.9% of the snaps in 2021, the Colts made Mack inactive for the final nine games of the season. If Indianapolis had kept Lindsay, he might have ended up in the same cycle.

Indianapolis also waived undrafted running back D’Vonte Price, leaving former Ravens running back Ty’Son Williams and incumbent Deon Jackson on the roster. A core special teamer in the second half of last season, Jackson was active for most of the games down the stretch.

See HOUSTON below – Mack is available.

JACKSONVILLE

The Jaguars have five receivers on their final roster.  Three have the last name of Jones – Marvin Jones, Jr.; Zay Jones and Tim Jones.

BUFFALO

CB TRE’DAVIOUS WHITE will not be defending against the passes of QB MATTHEW STAFFORD next Thursday night.  Alaina Getzenberg of ESPN.com:

One of the big questions of the Buffalo Bills offseason was when cornerback Tre’Davious White would be able to return to the field from a torn ACL. Unfortunately for the Bills, that won’t be happening any time soon.

The Bills on Tuesday placed White on the reserve/physically unable to perform list to start the 2022 NFL season. He will miss at least the first four games of the season — at the Los Angeles Rams, vs. the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football, at the Miami Dolphins and at the Baltimore Ravens.

White tore his ACL on Thanksgiving in a night game against the New Orleans Saints, a game played in his home state. During the opening period of training camp, White was visible rehabbing to the side and steadily increasing his workout. There appeared to be optimism that he would return to the field, however, he was last seen working out July 29.

THIS AND THAT

GRUDEN SPEAKS

Jon Gruden went to the Arkansas Touchdown Club in Little Rock and spoke publicly.  Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com:

Former Las Vegas Raiders coach Jon Gruden, for the first time, publicly addressed the email controversy that cost him his job last October.

Gruden, who filed a lawsuit against the NFL last year alleging the league singled him out, spoke Tuesday at the Little Rock Touchdown Club in Arkansas, saying he was going to be “honest” with the gathering.

“I’m ashamed about what has come about in these emails, and I’ll make no excuses for it,” he said. “It’s shameful. But I am a good person. I believe that. I go to church. I’ve been married for 31 years. I’ve got three great boys. I still love football. I’ve made some mistakes. But I don’t think anybody in here hasn’t. And I just ask for forgiveness, and hopefully, I get another shot.”

Gruden’s emails, which contained racist, anti-gay and misogynistic language, first came to light in a Wall Street Journal article Oct. 8. He was on the sideline for the Raiders that weekend, before The New York Times published an article Oct. 11 that contained additional emails. Gruden, who had signed a 10-year contract worth a reported $100 million to leave ESPN’s Monday Night Football booth and return to the Raiders in 2018, resigned that night.

The emails came to light in an NFL investigation into workplace conditions with the Washington franchise as Gruden was messaging with then-Washington executive Bruce Allen.

The NFL, the lawsuit contends, had been in possession of the emails since June 2021.

“Ask the NFL,” Raiders owner Mark Davis told ESPN at the time. “They have all the answers.”

Gruden’s lawsuit has claimed “tortious interference” by the NFL and commissioner Roger Goodell, saying they selectively leaked his emails to force his removal.

Of the 650,000 emails collected in the investigation, the lawsuit contends, Gruden’s were the only ones made public. They were also written when he was an ESPN employee.

On May 25, Nevada judge Nancy L. Allf ruled in favor of Gruden, opening the possibility of a jury trial, by denying the NFL’s motion to compel arbitration as well as the league’s motion to dismiss the case outright.

Speaking in Little Rock on Tuesday, Gruden became teary-eyed as the crowd applauded him.

“I get a choked up, you know, because there’s a lot of misunderstanding out there right now,” he said. “What you read, what you hear, what you watch on TV. Hell, I worked at ESPN for nine years. I worked hard at that job. I don’t even want to watch the channel anymore because I don’t believe everything is true. And I know a lot of it is just trying to get people to watch. But I think we’ve got to get back to reality.”

SURPRISE

32 surprises that will happen this as predicted/guessed by Dan Graziano of ESPN.com(we have put in red the ones we like the best).  We have edited out his explanation for some that seem kind of obvious and put in red some DB comments.

If we could predict surprises, they wouldn’t be surprises. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t give it a shot.

Every year, things happen in the NFL that we didn’t expect. By this point in the offseason, months’ worth of phone calls, texts and training camp visits (a deeper look at the latter right here) have given those of us who report on the league a sense of what is and isn’t likely to happen with each team. But not everything we find out rises to the level of a “look for this to happen” report.

So we did this piece last year to address the issue of surprises. And we actually hit on a few, including Colts running back Jonathan Taylor leading the league in rushing, Davante Adams’ and Baker Mayfield’s contract situations not being resolved, and DeVonta Smith overcoming a preseason injury to lead the Eagles in receiving, among several others.

Once again, we’ve identified something for each team that, based on my reporting and the conversations I’ve had around these teams, could happen that you might not be expecting.

I hope you enjoy it.

Arizona Cardinals

Don’t be surprised if … Rondale Moore is the team’s leading receiver.

Atlanta Falcons

Don’t be surprised if … Desmond Ridder starts at least one game at quarterback this year.

DB aside – Frankly, we’d be surprised, shocked even, if Ridder didn’t get at least one start.  Starting with the idea that Marcus Mariota would even be healthy for all 17 games. This would be better stated as “Don’t be surprised if…Desmond Ridder leads NFL rookies in TD passes.”  That at least has more of an element of doubt.

Baltimore Ravens

Don’t be surprised if … rookie tight end Isaiah Likely is the team’s second-leading receiver.

What I’m hearing: Everything’s relative here, of course. The Ravens’ second-leading receiver over the past four years has averaged 62 catches a year, and their third-leading receiver averages just 38 over that same span. This is a run-first team with one of the best tight ends in the league already ahead of Likely.

But the Ravens love this player and what he showed in camp. If Mark Andrews, who was targeted 153 times and caught 107 passes in 2021, becomes the focal point for opposing pass defenses, don’t be surprised if the Ravens look to Likely for vertical production from the tight end spot. This is no knock on second-year wideout Rashod Bateman, mind you, but the tight ends are major factors in Baltimore.

Buffalo Bills

Don’t be surprised if … the Bills lead the league in sacks AND takeaways.

What I’m hearing: They were third in takeaways and 11th in sacks last year, so this isn’t some major jump. But Buffalo’s defense, with the addition of Von Miller and the expected return of Tre’Davious White from injury, looks like it could be the best in the league in a number of facets. There are few teams, if any, in the NFL more motivated and equipped to make a Super Bowl run in 2022.

Adding two-time Super Bowl champion Miller to the pass rush and the locker room can only elevate the group. Maybe, if this prediction comes true, this will finally be the year defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier gets his well-deserved second chance to be a head coach again.

Carolina Panthers

Don’t be surprised if … the Panthers sneak into the playoffs.

What I’m hearing: The addition of Baker Mayfield, the Panthers believe, makes them viable on offense. They like their receivers. They love Christian McCaffrey if they can keep him on the field. They believe they have a playoff-caliber defense.

If Mayfield, who played through shoulder and foot injuries in Cleveland last year, can move around enough to overcome the present concerns about pass protection, he should push the ball downfield in Ben McAdoo’s offense. There are enough questions about the Bucs and Saints and, honestly, the rest of the NFC field that it’s not impossible to see Carolina sneaking into a seven-team playoff field as one of the year’s inevitable surprises.

DB aside – We think this is a better possibility than his other “surprise” of the Jaguars making the playoffs.

Chicago Bears

Don’t be surprised if … Khalil Herbert ends the year as the team’s lead running back.

What I’m hearing: The new staff seems to like David Montgomery just fine, but there is some skepticism about whether his style fits the new offense as well as Herbert’s does. I believe Montgomery opens the season as the starter and gets the chance to show he deserves to hold the job. But he’s in the final year of his contract, and the team made no move this offseason to extend him. Don’t be surprised if Herbert is a factor and maybe even overtakes Montgomery during the season.

Cincinnati Bengals

Don’t be surprised if … Hayden Hurst plays a bigger role in the offense than C.J. Uzomah did.

What I’m hearing: It’s easy to be skeptical about Hurst, the former Ravens first-round pick who’s now on his third team. But the Bengals believe his disappointing stints in Baltimore and Atlanta were due to opportunity issues, not ability.

Cleveland Browns

Don’t be surprised if … Myles Garrett wins Defensive Player of the Year.

Why would this be surprising?

Dallas Cowboys

Don’t be surprised if … they add a wide receiver soon.

Denver Broncos

Don’t be surprised if … Javonte Williams wins you your fantasy league.

What I’m hearing: The fantasy community is concerned about a repeat of last year’s 50/50 running back split between Williams and Melvin Gordon, but the Broncos have major plans for Williams, and they start now. They were ready to let Gordon leave before he failed to find what he was looking for on the market and returned to them late in free agency.

I think Gordon, who has had a strong camp by all accounts, still has a role, but that it’s a far more secondary role than he had last year as Williams takes control of the backfield and piles up yards and catches.

Detroit Lions

Don’t be surprised if … Jared Goff sets career highs in yards and touchdown passes.

What I’m hearing: Goff’s current career highs are the 4,688 yards and 32 touchdowns he had in 2018 with the Rams. An extra regular-season game makes those numbers attainable. The Lions look good on the offensive line. They added DJ Chark to the receiving corps to go with the promising Amon-Ra St. Brown. They’re strong at running back with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams.

I’m not saying the Lions make some major jump into the playoffs this year, and I’m not just caught up in “Hard Knocks” hype, because Goff has been the invisible man on that show so far this year. I’m saying the Lions feel very, very good about how Goff has looked in camp, and he may be better set up for statistical success than you think he is.

Green Bay Packers

Don’t be surprised if … Allen Lazard has a 1,000-yard receiving season.

What I’m hearing: His career highs are 40 catches and 513 yards, so this would be a major Year 5 jump. But Davante Adams is gone, and someone has to catch the ball. Aaron Rodgers is already referring to Lazard as the team’s No. 1 receiver. The coaching staff says Lazard looks at himself as that kind of guy and is ready to assume the mantle.

If there’s a key question about Rodgers and his receivers this year, it’s whom he will trust on third down and in the red zone. But Lazard was 11th in the league in end zone targets LAST year, so there are signs that he already has some level of that trust.

Houston Texans

Don’t be surprised if … Davis Mills plays well enough to keep the job.

What I’m hearing: The Texans like Mills and want to give him every chance to show he can be their long-term answer at quarterback. He has to show improvement on deeper throws, but offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton has a chance to add to his own résumé by coaching a big year out of Mills.

Houston has the draft capital to go after a QB in next year’s draft if it decides it needs to, and that might end up being the most likely outcome here. But Mills was fairly well regarded by a number of teams ahead of the 2021 draft and could outplay expectations as Houston’s unchallenged starter in 2022.

Indianapolis Colts

Don’t be surprised if … Nyheim Hines catches 63 (or more) passes this season.

What I’m hearing: Hines had 63 catches in 2018, when Andrew Luck was the Colts’ quarterback, and 63 catches in 2020, when Philip Rivers was the Colts’ quarterback. He had 44 catches in 2019, when Jacoby Brissett was the Colts’ quarterback, and 40 last year, when the checkdown-averse Carson Wentz was his quarterback.

The Colts WANT Hines and his pass-catching ability to be a big part of what they do on offense, and they believe Matt Ryan won’t be shy about finding him when the play calls for it.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Don’t be surprised if … they make the playoffs.

What I’m hearing: The change in atmosphere around the Jaguars under Doug Pederson versus what it was a year ago under Urban Meyer may constitute the biggest upgrade of any situation in the league. Trevor Lawrence is still a top-end QB prospect in the eyes of many, and they added a ton of players around him on offense in free agency.

Tennessee could take a step back this year, and Houston is likely to struggle, so the division outside of Indianapolis doesn’t look too intimidating. (Plus, they ALWAYS beat the Colts in Jacksonville!) It’s a long shot, but there’s always a long shot that ends up in the postseason, and the Jaguars are likely a lot better team than they appeared to be last year during the Meyer fiasco.

Playoffs?  Buffalo, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Indianapolis and any of the AFC West teams are likely to win more games than the Jaguars.  Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Miami also could win 9 or 10.  We didn’t even get to New England or last year’s top seed the Titans.  That’s 13 teams we think are better than even a revitalized Jaguars team will be – and only seven need to be to squeeze them out of the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs

Don’t be surprised if … This is the year Clyde Edwards-Helaire breaks out.

What I’m hearing: Yeah, yeah, I know … how many years are we going to be saying this? Well, if it’s not this year, then I would say no more years after this. The Chiefs have to decide on Edwards-Helaire’s fifth-year option next May, and if he doesn’t live up to his 2020 first-round pedigree, it’ll be really easy for the Chiefs to cut ties after this year.

But the coaching staff remains high on Edwards-Helaire and what he can do in this offense. They believe his biggest issue so far in his career has been staying healthy, and that he has done a good job of that this offseason. He’s set up for a post-hype breakout kind of year.

Las Vegas Raiders

Don’t be surprised if … Derek Carr eclipses 5,000 passing yards.

Like some others, not a surprise if it happens.  4,804 last year without Davante Adams.

Los Angeles Chargers

Don’t be surprised if … they have a top-three defense.

What I’m hearing: There’s a lot of hype around Justin Herbert and the offense, and for good reason. It has a chance to be as good as any in the league. But don’t overlook the other side of the ball, where the Chargers boast legitimate superstars up front (Joey Bosa) and on the back end (Derwin James).

When James is healthy, he is the difference-maker for L.A. on defense, and the contract the Chargers just gave him speaks to their faith in his ability to stay on the field moving forward. Don’t be surprised if James and Bosa both get DPOY votes as this group becomes one of the very best in the NFL.

Los Angeles Rams

Don’t be surprised if … Matthew Stafford’s elbow is an issue all season.

What I’m hearing: Well, everything you hear from the Rams and from Stafford is that it’s fine, it’s nothing to worry about, they have a plan, and it won’t be a problem. And hey, maybe they’re telling the truth. The Rams’ medical staff is outstanding, and its plan for getting Stafford ready for the season may be perfect. But it’s the elbow on the starting quarterback’s throwing arm. The level of precision required to succeed at that position in the NFL is so high that even the slightest problem — one that affects the placement of the throw by 2 or 3 inches — could be enough to turn a great year into a so-so year.

My impression of this situation is that it affects Stafford’s practice schedule all year and could also, obviously, affect his performance on Sundays. He’s tough enough that it’s fair to believe it won’t affect his availability for Sundays, but this is a guy who already led the league in interceptions last year. We sure an elbow problem isn’t going to mess with him at all?

Miami Dolphins

Don’t be surprised if … Jaylen Waddle — not Tyreek Hill — is the team’s leading receiver.

What I’m hearing: Hill is the fastest dude in the league, but Waddle is pretty darn speedy himself, and he caught 104 passes last year as a rookie. He already has a connection with Tua Tagovailoa, who’s likely to lean more on shorter, quick-hitting stuff than deep downfield throws.

Hill could open up the field for Waddle to an extent that allows him to build on his highly productive rookie campaign. Think about a Deebo Samuel-type role (without the rushing attempts) in former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel’s offense.

We would think Waddle will have more catches (say 100 catches, 1,100 yards) and Hill will have more yards (say 80 catches, 1,400 yards).  So how are you defining “receiver’”

Minnesota Vikings

Don’t be surprised if … C.J. Ham has some kind of role in the offense.

What I’m hearing: When I was at Vikings camp, I was a little shocked at the extent to which people were talking up fullback Ham as a player who could contribute in multiple ways on offense. I’m thinking, “Dalvin Cook? Justin Jefferson? Adam Thielen? K.J. Osborn? Irv Smith Jr.? Like, are they hurting for playmakers?” But the new Vikings coaching staff — and QB Kirk Cousins — really do see Ham as a player who can help in a variety of ways.

I think new coach Kevin O’Connell is going to have some fun shaking up formations, putting multiple running backs on the field at the same time, maybe deploying Ham as an extra tight end in certain scenarios, etc. I don’t think there’s an action item here from a fantasy standpoint unless Cook gets hurt and they have to get REALLY creative at running back. But from a watching-the-team standpoint, this is a guy you could notice more than you have in years past.

New England Patriots

Don’t be surprised if … Nelson Agholor is Mac Jones’ favorite target.

What I’m hearing: Agholor had a quiet first season in New England, and the team traded for DeVante Parker and drafted Tyquan Thornton in the second round to bolster a WR corps that already included Kendrick Bourne and Jakobi Meyers. Oh, and don’t forget Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, the two free agent tight ends the Pats signed in 2021.

It’s a crowded group of pass-catchers, to be sure, but the buzz out of New England this camp has been that Jones and Agholor have developed a reliable connection. There are many things we don’t know about how this offense will function in New England this year, but watch out for Agholor as a guy Jones has grown to like a lot.

New Orleans Saints

Don’t be surprised if … Chris Olave turns out to be their No. 1 receiver.

What I’m hearing: Yes, Michael Thomas has supposedly looked good in his effort to finally return from those ankle injuries. And yes, Jarvis Landry is a quarterback’s-best-friend type of possession receiver who should catch a lot of balls. But Olave, the 11th overall pick in this year’s draft, is the receiver the Saints truly believe can be a dynamic difference-maker in multiple ways on offense.

Indications out of Saints camp are that Olave has picked things up quickly and is already a polished route-runner for a rookie, and that Jameis Winston likes throwing to him. He could be the most instant-impact player among this year’s offensive rookies.

Again, why would this be surprising?

New York Giants

Don’t be surprised if … rookie Wan’Dale Robinson is the team’s leading receiver.

What I’m hearing: There is plenty of opportunity for someone to assume a dominant role in the Giants’ pass-catcher rotation. Kenny Golladay doesn’t appear capable of separating from defenders. Kadarius Toney continues to deal with nagging health issues here and there. Sterling Shepard just got back to practice as he works his way back from an Achilles injury. Darius Slayton has been made available in trade since last October.

The Giants have a healthy Daniel Jones and a favorable schedule of opposing defenses. Somebody has to catch the ball. Robinson was the team’s second-round pick in this year’s draft, and the coaching staff feels it can use him all over the formation. This coaching staff and front office didn’t sign Golladay and didn’t draft Toney or Shepard. It’s a big jump from the second round to a team’s leading receiver in Year 1, but watch out. Robinson should be a factor.

New York Jets

Don’t be surprised if … they field a top-10 defense.

What I’m hearing: Coach Robert Saleh’s background is on defense, so last year’s performance on that side of the ball had to make him sick. This year, the Jets added first-round draft picks Sauce Gardner and Jermaine Johnson, among other key pieces, and they’re getting 2020 free agent signee Carl Lawson back after he missed all of last season because of injury.

Their first-half schedule looks brutal, so it may take a while for this unit to move up the statistical charts. But Gardner should be a strong Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate at the least in Year 1, and Lawson’s impact on the pass rush should be significant.

Philadelphia Eagles

Don’t be surprised if … A.J. Brown has more than 1,000 receiving yards this year.

See CLEVELAND and NEW ORLEANS – why is this surprising? Surprising would be under 1,000 yards. He should have gone bolder like 1,500 yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Don’t be surprised if … Chase Claypool is the breakout star at wide receiver.

What I’m hearing: Diontae Johnson is the reliable No. 1 in the receiving corps, and the offseason hype about rookie George Pickens is legit — he really has impressed the coaching staff at every turn. But don’t forget about Claypool, whose physical gifts make him a mismatch when they use him in the slot and, honestly, all over the field.

Whether it’s Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett or both at QB for the Steelers this year, Claypool has a chance to be a difference-making target who can win on 50-50 balls and be a major factor in the red zone.

San Francisco 49ers

Don’t be surprised if … they miss the playoffs.

What I’m hearing: Trey Lance could be a lot of fun to watch, but he’s also very likely to struggle to overcome the lack of experience he brings to the job. Even some of the 49ers’ recent public comments indicate they think as much. They have question marks at four of the five starting offensive line spots, which isn’t getting nearly enough attention amid the preseason hype. The defense looks championship-caliber, which could save them, but there are enough questions at key spots on offense to make you wonder if we’re assuming too much when we think they’ll just stay good.

Kyle Shanahan’s record as 49ers head coach is 39-42 (43-44 counting playoffs), and the team has failed to reach seven wins in three of his five seasons. So it wouldn’t be the first time people overrated the 49ers in the preseason. I think Lance ends up being good, but I think this season could be quite rocky.

Seattle Seahawks

Don’t be surprised if … Kenneth Walker III wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.

What I’m hearing: He’s currently out recovering from hernia surgery, but everything I’m hearing makes me expect Walker back sooner rather than later. The guy in front of him on the depth chart, Rashaad Penny, hasn’t exactly been the picture of consistent health. Walker will have the opportunity with a team that wants to run a lot and has the offensive line to pull it off. If he’s back in Week 1 or 2, he could start piling up major yardage from the get-go.

This is a god use of this space.  Surprising, but not insane.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Don’t be surprised if … Tom Brady throws for 5,000 yards again.

What I’m hearing: The internal concern over the Bucs’ offensive line issues, Brady’s training camp absence, the changes on the coaching staff, etc., don’t match the external concern. The Bucs believe Brady is in the right frame of mind to start the season and that the guys they will line up in front of him Week 1 are good enough to keep him protected.

If both of those things are true, and if Chris Godwin comes back early in the season as they expect him to, Brady should continue to do what he has done since he got to Tampa. There are some questions on defense, but if they can keep him protected, Brady should be the least of the Bucs’ problems.

Again, why would this be surprising?  He had 5,316 last year – and 5,016 would be a surprise?

Tennessee Titans

Don’t be surprised if … Treylon Burks leads all rookie receivers in catches.

What I’m hearing: Robert Woods is slated to be the No. 1 receiver in Tennessee, but the Titans have a major role planned for Burks and have been giving him extra reps in the preseason to get him up to speed quickly after a difficult spring.

This is a run-first team that will lean on Derrick Henry, but the Titans have big plans for Burks and would like to feature him prominently in the passing game. The bet here is that he has some bumps in the road early, but that they keep going to him in order to help him work through it, and he’s a major part of things there in the second half of the season.

This is one that would surprise us.  Chris Olave (and others) seem primed for 90+ catches. Burks, at best, is supposed to replace A.J. Brown who had 63 catches (yes, in 13 games) in Tennessee’s offense.  And we don’t think Burks is as good as A.J. Brown.

Washington Commanders

Don’t be surprised if … Chase Young wins Comeback Player of the Year.

2023 DRAFT

Here is a 2023 Mock Draft, from Nick Baumgardner and Nate Tice of The Athletic, as the actual 2022 NCAA season gets underway this week:

No, it’s not too early. And, yes, we’re doing this.

This week, our expert statistician Austin Mock served up his projected win totals for all 32 NFL teams, which means we also can piece together a (very hypothetical) 2023 NFL Draft order. Time to get a jump on things.

Using Dane Brugler’s preseason top 50 prospect rankings as a guide, Nick Baumgardner and Nate Tice take a spin through the entire first round and see what comes up.

1. New York Jets: Will Anderson Jr., edge, Alabama

Obviously, Jets coach Robert Saleh would rather not be picking No. 1 overall after his second season in New York. But Anderson would be a fine anesthetic. The Jets have added premium talent on both sides of the ball over the last two draft cycles, including two first-round defenders this spring: Ahmad Gardner and Jermaine Johnson. Johnson is likely going to be more valuable in the NFL versus the run than as a pass rusher, though it appears New York’s plan with him is to take things slowly. Gardner, meanwhile, looks incredibly comfortable already.

If Saleh can pair his possible star corner with Anderson, a legit star playmaker in the front seven, then the Jets shouldn’t be picking in the top five come 2024. — Nick Baumgardner

2. Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Even with the surprisingly competent career start from 2021 third-round pick Davis Mills, the Texans should understand the need for a difference-maker at QB — Mills still needs to show more glimpses of being the true guy there.

Stroud certainly benefits from great talent around him at Ohio State, but he maximizes it with his accuracy and timing on throws. He improved throughout the 2021 season, culminating in a fireworks show at the Rose Bowl against Utah. (Some of which came against a Utes running back, Micah Bernard, who was forced into playing cornerback. But at least Stroud understood the matchup, right?). Stroud has the ability to place throws at all three levels, and the size and maturity that oozes NFL starter. If he continues to produce and uses his athleticism a tad more as a runner, he would be an easy choice for the Texans. — Nate Tice

3. Atlanta Falcons: Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia

Atlanta might feel a lot different about its quarterback situation in four months — rookie Desmond Ridder has played some good football so far this preseason, albeit primarily behind presumed bridge starter Marcus Mariota. The Falcons would love nothing more than to have Ridder take off so they wouldn’t have to worry about where they land in another QB derby next spring. If that happens and Atlanta has a chance to take arguably the best defensive lineman on Georgia’s historic 2021 national title defense (you read that correctly), then general manager Terry Fontenot can send in this pick without blinking. If Ridder struggles, Atlanta could be in great position to take another QB swing. — Baumgardner

4. Chicago Bears: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia

Bears fans will want my head on a stake for selecting another defensive back instead of a wide receiver or offensive lineman to help QB Justin Fields. But this Bears regime just needs to fill its hole-ridden roster with as many building blocks as possible, and Ringo is that type of prospect. He has jaw-dropping traits, and if he continues to grow his game under Kirby Smart in 2022, then the Bears would be plopping Ringo in a defensive backfield currently occupied by promising rookies Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon. Hey, the Bears would have their day-two picks and the most projected cap space in the NFL (nearly $92 million) next year to give Fields some support. We hope. — Tice

5. Seattle Seahawks: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Geno Smith and Drew Lock will have opportunities to stop this from happening. But easy money right now says they won’t be able to. Frankly, if Smith works out as a capable starter and is able to bridge the franchise through the development of its next QB, maybe that works all the better. Lock would have to do something we’ve never seen from him at this level to change the math in his favor.

Like Stroud at Ohio State, Young’s entire college career has come with the benefit of a totally stacked roster — including the most consistent offensive line situation in the country. The size concerns here (Young is 5-foot-11, 197 pounds) are going to be real. But Young sees the field as well as any quarterback here, he makes plays, and he does it all consistently. — Baumgardner

6. Jacksonville Jaguars: Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU

The Jaguars raised the bar in their receiver room this offseason by signing Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to, shall we say, interesting free-agent deals. But they’re still searching for a bonafide No. 1 target to help QB Trevor Lawrence. Enter Boutte. The LSU star not only can create on his own after the catch, but he’s able to win inside and out. He can create separation underneath with his burst, and down the field with a fairly refined route tree. The perfect type of receiver to be a target-eater for Lawrence. — Tice

7. New York Giants: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Let’s party. It’s prove-it time in New York for Daniel Jones (maybe beyond prove-it time; we’ll see) — the Giants declined his fifth-year option this spring. Like the rest of the quarterbacks currently playing on perceived QB-needy teams, Jones should have a chance to win a long-term job in 2022. If he outperforms expectations relative to what we’ve seen from him so far, the Giants won’t likely be drafting in the top 10. If they are, they’ll need to draft a quarterback.

Levis needs a big year at Kentucky in terms of consistency with both his decision-making and overall processing skills. But, physically, he’s a beast. A special talent at 6-4, 230, with the goods to do everything in the NFL. — Baumgardner

8. Detroit Lions: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson

Under Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holmes, the Lions have left little to the imagination about how they want to build their roster. And Simpson would just be another part of that emerging image. He is a top-tier athlete in space while also being versatile in coverage as an off-ball linebacker and as a blitzer. He’d be a perfect piece to add to a Lions defense that needs players for its front seven.

Quarterback, of course, will be looked at here — Jared Goff’s contract becomes very movable after this season. With Stroud, Young and Levis already off the board, though, the Lions might decide that this pick isn’t the time to pull the trigger. — Tice

9. Pittsburgh Steelers: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern

The Steelers might have their next franchise QB already on the roster in Kenny Pickett. He also might not be in the bullpen very long — Mitchell Trubisky hardly has the No. 1 job locked down. Either way, the next step in that process for Mike Tomlin and company will be to further fortify everything in front of their quarterback.

Skoronski needs a big year in 2022 to cement himself as the top offensive lineman in this class. Even then, it might not be enough to crack the top 10 — there are length concerns; he’s not quite the athlete Rashawn Slater was, although there are similarities. The good news: He looked dominant in Northwestern’s impressive season-opening win against Nebraska last week in Ireland. — Baumgardner

10. Carolina Panthers: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

No one likes to churn their quarterbacks like the Panthers. Whether or not Matt Rhule is still the coach in 2023, the Panthers might be in the quarterback market if the Baker Mayfield experiment goes awry. Richardson’s arrow as a prospect could go in any direction in 2022 (and I wouldn’t be shocked by any outcome) — he is a bundle of tools at this point. But if he progresses under new coaches at Florida, he will climb rapidly up boards. — Tice

11. Washington Commanders: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Washington needs an anchor outside defensively and Gonzalez — all 6-2, 200 of him — could be just that. A member of Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List, Gonzalez is all gas and explosion around the ball and in coverage. Offensive line could also be in the cards for Washington here, but this felt like too promising a fit to pass up. — Baumgardner

12. Houston Texans (via Browns): Nolan Smith, edge, Georgia

Though Lovie Smith’s preferred defensive scheme might not be a perfect match with Nolan Smith, the Georgia defender is just too good of a football player for the Texans to ignore. Letting Smith pin his ears back and get after the quarterback would help any defense create pressure. He has the bend and length to rush the passer, as well as the versatility to stand up and drop into coverage, if needed. A useful player with athleticism that any coach would love to have. — Tice

13. Las Vegas Raiders: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

It was a rough go for former Alabama offensive tackle Alex Leatherwood in Las Vegas, and the slide continued through training camp. The Raiders cut Leatherwood on Tuesday, so they really might need to look at OT next offseason.

Johnson is still working on transitioning from guard to tackle, and he probably projects better on the left side. Though that could be a tricky fit with Kolton Miller already playing there for Las Vegas, the Raiders might not have any choice but to address a potential hole. — Baumgardner

14. Tennessee Titans: Myles Murphy, edge, Clemson

There was just not an offensive lineman here that made sense for the Titans. But the Titans love their bruisers on defense and Murphy is just the type of player who can push the pocket. He would give Tennessee another promising prospect for its front alongside Jeffery Simmons and Teair Tart, and he has the play style to complement a recently extended Harold Landry in pass-rushing situations. Drafting Murphy also would leave the Titans a one-for-one replacement should they decide to move on from Bud Dupree. — Tice

15. New England Patriots: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

Instead of reaching for someone outside the top 100 here, I decided to do the other thing Bill Belichick has long seemed fond of: sitting, waiting and drafting a top-10 talent outside the top 10. First, Bresee has to prove he’s back after an ACL injury last year. If he does, there’s no way he’ll slide this far. — Baumgardner

16. Arizona Cardinals: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

I wanted to take a lineman. Or a cornerback. I just really don’t think Kliff Kingsbury and GM Steve Keim will be able to help themselves here, even after trading their 2022 first-round pick for Hollywood Brown.   — Tice

17. Philadelphia Eagles: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M

Note: This pick was sent in just before the Eagles traded for Chauncey Gardner-Johnson on Tuesday. But I’m leaving it anyway because of Antonio Johnson’s versatility and long-range potential. Johnson is one of those prospects in this class that you have to squint at right now to see the full picture, but if/when it all comes together, it could be fantastic. He’s a safety with corner skills who could also be a big nickel.

The Eagles are also in a great spot here to go corner. Or they could package these picks (Nos. 17 and 19) and go get a QB to replace Jalen Hurts, if need be. —Baumgardner

18. Miami Dolphins: pick forfeited

19. Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans): Isaiah Foskey, edge Notre Dame

The Eagles, yet again, will have a very good opportunity to stack quality defenders in this draft. It’s also time for Philadelphia to get younger on the edge, with the type of athletes that can check off more than one box at a time. Foskey is that type of prospect, at 6-5, 260. He’s fast enough (to a degree) to run with running backs and tight ends, if you want him to. He’s explosive off the corner as a pass rusher with great length and buckets of potential. — Baumgardner

20. Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos): Siaki Ika, DT, Baylor

Having already selected their quarterback of the future in this mock, the Seahawks continue to build their lines by putting a true space-eater in the middle of their defense. Right now, the Seahawks are playing 35-year-old Al Woods at nose tackle, so adding the ridiculously talented Ika would be an injection of youth to help keep the spine of the Seahawks’ defense a strength. With the Seattle defense playing some flavor of a Vic Fangio-style defense, having a keystone player at the nose position would make the lives of other defenders — like burgeoning star Jordyn Brooks — easier. — Tice

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

What a steal this would be for Joe Burrow and the Bengals. I’m not sure we can say there are 20 better prospects right now than Mayer, a terrific young tight end (and No. 15 on Dane’s preseason board). This is definitely an interesting group of tight ends, overall, but — as is often the case at the position — it’s hard to say this early how high the top guys will land. Everyone in Cincinnati surely would love this, though. Mayer is cut from the prototypical your-quarterback’s-best-friend cloth. He does a bit of everything well. — Baumgardner

22. Minnesota Vikings: Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon

The Vikings invested in the back end of their defense during the 2022 draft and now have an interesting blend of youth and veterans on that side of the ball. Sewell would give them a proper succession plan at linebacker as Eric Kendricks enters his 30s. Sewell is a balanced linebacker with size, strength and enough athleticism to hold up and coverage. A three-down defender who is a plus against the run would allow the Vikings’ defense to continue to play how they want under new coaches. — Tice

23. Miami Dolphins (via 49ers): Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

Dane noted in his preseason rankings that no running back has cracked the top 23 picks over the past four drafts. We did not put Robinson here on purpose — he is going to be a tempting pick for many ahead of this number. A lot of that is going to depend on how he follows up a terrific sophomore campaign. He’s Mr. Electricity in space. — Baumgardner

24. Los Angeles Chargers: Arik Gilbert, TE, Georgia

Gilbert is all about potential right now. But the flashes he has shown make his high rating understandable, in case he comes anywhere close to scratching his ceiling in 2022. He has the ability to be a mismatch nightmare for NFL defenses. If Gilbert plays a full season and shows more polish to his game, then he might not be here at this spot next April. But his big frame and legitimate field-stretching ability would make a potential pairing with QB Justin Herbert something to be giddy about. At least for fans of non-AFC West teams. — Tice

25. Baltimore Ravens: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah

It’s funny how these things shake out, even in a hypothetical sense, because Phillips feels like a Baltimore Raven all the way. The Ravens will surely have an eye on cornerbacks next offseason with Marcus Peters entering the final year of his deal. A tough corner (albeit an undersized one), Phillips’ best trait is his fearlessness in coverage. He’s a Raven if there ever were one. — Baumgardner

26. Indianapolis Colts: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Porter is a smart and physical player who can get a little too handsy at times. But his competitive nature is apparent on tape, and he is more than willing to press, snap after snap. He has the ability to play outside in man coverage or move inside, when needed, which will only make him more well-liked by NFL evaluators. Porter’s length and football IQ would make him a great fit in Gus Bradley’s single-high attack that asks its cornerbacks to hold up repeatedly in man or match situations. — Tice

27. Detroit Lions (via Rams): Tyree Wilson, edge, Texas Tech

No quarterback for the Lions at 27, either. If Lions fans are looking for names that could emerge for the 2023 draft, they should keep tabs on Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke or Stanford’s Tanner McKee. But Wilson is another strong, long-framed defensive player for the Lions to add to their front seven. He can stack and shed against offensive tackles to find ball carriers while also having enough athleticism and natural tools to offer upside as a pass rusher. — Tice

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Colby Wooden, edge, Auburn

The Bucs continued to revamp their defensive line with their first selection in each of the past two drafts: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (2021) and Logan Hall (2022). Wooden is more like Hall in that he’s a versatile defensive player who can move where needed, depending on the situation. If it’s not an edge here, the Buccaneers could add to their defensive backs room or start looking at linebacker life beyond Lavonte David. But they’re in an enviable position, as far as roster outlooks go. (Just pretend that Tom Brady will play forever.) — Tice

29. Dallas Cowboys: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina

The Cowboys have some very solid hands in the secondary right now. One way to make sure it stays that way, as players age, is to continually replenish. Smith isn’t a terrific athlete, but he’s a very good cornerback who is tough to beat — he allowed only 15 receptions last season. And he’ll keep getting better. — Baumgardner

30. Kansas City Chiefs: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

Nate called me a “sicko” after this one, and why not? But as long as the Chiefs appear near the bottom of the first round and have Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback, finding a super-fun receiver to pair with their QB is going to be an entertaining draft exercise. Addison could have a lot of fun this year with Lincoln Riley in Southern California. Another name to watch here could be Florida guard O’Cyrus Torrence, if the Chiefs want to be more responsible. — Baumgardner

31. Green Bay Packers: Brian Branch, S, Alabama

In 2020, Branch started three games at safety as a true freshman — for Nick Saban — on a national-title winner. Take a minute to think about all the depth ’Bama has in its secondary every year, remember Saban is as close to a living oracle as it gets with that position and understand why Branch’s accomplishment is so impressive. Branch is a smart, savvy football player who’s almost always on time. He probably could play either safety spot. An ascending talent. — Baumgardner

32. Buffalo Bills: Layden Robinson, OG, Texas A&M

Our current projection has the Bills winning it all this year (or finishing with the top record, at least). So, congrats, Bills fans!

The offensive line is still a bit of concern in Buffalo — 34-year-old Rodger Saffold is starting at left guard this year. GM Brandon Beane could decide to address it in the 2023 draft with Robinson. It’s never sexy to draft a guard in the first round, but QB Josh Allen is special enough to make whatever weapons are around him several tiers better, and the Bills already have Stefon Diggs and an emerging Gabe Davis in their receiver room.

The Bills’ defense is a strong unit, too, but another option could be to start looking for a safety (or safeties) of the future next offseason. — Tice