The Daily Briefing Wednesday, August 4, 2021

Mike Sando’s epic Quarterback Tiers report takes up a lot of space below, even after we hacked quite a few interesting comments out.  You can see it all at The Athletic.

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

RB TARIK COHEN’s return is not imminent per this Tweet from Matt Grote:

@markgrotesports

No exact time frame as to when RB Tarik Cohen will return, but Matt Nagy suggested more like “weeks away” as opposed to “days away” (from returning.).  Also, no guarantee that he’d be thrown right back into punt returning when he does get back.

GREEN BAY

The Packers have two A. Rodgers on their roster.  Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com:

The first week of training camp here has revealed an early test of the Green Bay Packers’ shadow general manager, aka quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Two slot receivers — one a veteran whom Rodgers campaigned to acquire, the other a rookie drafted when Rodgers was contemplating his future — have each gotten work with the starters.

Packers fans and fantasy managers alike want to know how playing time and targets will shake out between Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers. The Packers’ actual general manager, Brian Gutekunst, expressed confidence last week coach Matt LaFleur would find roles for both players. But make no mistake: Aaron Rodgers’ long and clear history of favoring veteran receivers should be the guiding light of this discussion.

“He’s a dear friend,” Rodgers said of Cobb, “and a guy that I still believe can really play.”

Over the years, Rodgers’ exacting expectations of receivers has reduced his reliance on rookies to levels unseen elsewhere in the NFL. Since his career as a starter began in 2008, Rodgers has never targeted a rookie receiver more than 68 times in a season (Marquez Valdes-Scantling in 2018). Every NFL team has had at least one rookie receiver targeted more frequently in a season than that, and overall there have been 101 rookies with between 69 and 144 targets in a season between 2008 and 2020. To be fair, the Packers have never used a first-round pick on a receiver when Rodgers was a starter. But 59 of those 101 rookies cited (58%) were not first-round picks.

In the time they played together, Cobb was Rodgers’ favorite receiver based on targets. He threw Cobb’s way 607 times between 2011 and 2018, 62 times more than fellow veteran Jordy Nelson. Cobb caught 71% of the passes Rodgers threw him, the highest catch percentage of any Packers receiver.

There was and remains a deep connection between the two, one Rodgers wanted to wring more production from in the twilight of their careers. Rodgers’ desire to influence Packers’ personnel moves, at least the ones that revolve around the passing game, was a big part of his offseason reluctance to return to the team. And as they rekindle their magic this summer, Amari Rodgers is undergoing the demanding process of earning his quarterback’s trust.

“[Cobb] already has the trust of 12,” he said, referring to Aaron Rodgers’ jersey number. “I’m just trying to earn the trust of 12, and every single day just learn the offense and get the gist of it so, when Sundays come, whenever we get our opportunities, we’re going to make those plays so we can win the Super Bowl.”

We’ve seen what happens when Rodgers has a short list of trusted receivers. Over the past two seasons, he has found ways to target veteran Davante Adams 277 times. The next most-frequently targeted pass-catcher has been tailback Aaron Jones (128), followed by Valdes-Scantling at 119. The 149-target difference between Adams and Jones is tied for the highest between the top two pass-catchers on any team in the NFL since the start of 2019, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Adams’ 25.6% share of his team’s total targets is the second-highest in the NFL, behind DeAndre Hopkins (29.1% with the Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals).

Adams is unquestionably one of the most talented receivers in football, of course, and it makes sense to target him as much as possible. But even in his rookie season, as a starter alongside Cobb and Nelson in 2014, he was targeted 68 times — 85 fewer than Nelson and 61 fewer than Cobb.

Amari Rodgers faces more obstacles than Adams did as a rookie, assuming Cobb stays healthy. (He has missed 14 games in the past three seasons due to injury.) Using both players in three-receiver sets would stretch LaFleur’s creative limits. Cobb has started 80% of his career snaps, and caught 44 of his 48 touchdown passes, from the slot. Amari Rodgers, meanwhile, ran 88% of his routes from the slot at Clemson in 2020.

In other words, neither has much experience working as an outside receiver. At least early in the season, that could lead to a focus on one-off plays such as bubble screens and backfield pitches for Amari Rodgers, as well as an emphasis on kick returns. Rodgers is an exceptional open-field runner and led the Power 5 last season with 602 yards after the catch on routes he ran from the slot.

“I knew as soon as I got drafted [that] every tiny bit of selfishness in me had to go out the window,” Amari Rodgers said. “Because I know the goal here is to win a Super Bowl and that’s my goal too. So I’m going to do everything in my power to help the team do that.”

Said Cobb: “I don’t care about how many snaps I get. I don’t care how many catches. I don’t care about how many yards, touchdowns. If you don’t know that about me now, I don’t know what else to tell you.”

– – –

QB AARON RODGERS is with the Packers for now, and presumably motivated to keep his stock high for 2022.  So Charles Robinson of YahooSports.com gives us his best guess on teams that are in play.

Every year since Peyton Manning retired — every single summer rolling into training camp — the marquee hanging over the Denver Broncos’ season has showcased the franchise’s defining storyline.

How to resolve the quarterback problem.

Thus far, the quest for a lasting starter has been a “wrong answers only” meme, chewing through a thicket of quarterback mediocrity, from Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch and Brock Osweiler to Case Keenum, Joe Flacco and Brandon Allen. Now 2021 has delivered Teddy Bridgewater versus Drew Lock, which already feels like the latest iteration of irrelevant Broncos quarterback battles. It’ll stretch right into the season for Denver as the franchise weighs whether it has anything more than a stopgap behind center.

It may not sound like it, but this is an Aaron Rodgers story for the Broncos. With a defense that has a chance to be among the best in the NFL — but an offense that is only going as far as Bridgewater or Lock can take it — you can’t help but wonder what kind of difference Rodgers would have made if he’d forced his way to Denver this offseason. As one opposing (and thankful) AFC general manager opined this week of the Rodgers and Broncos marriage that never happened: “[Rodgers] would have moved them onto a Super Bowl level this year.”

Of course, the Broncos will have to sit and wonder what might have happened — for at least a year, anyway. And they won’t be alone in their curiosity about how Rodgers could have shaped their franchise, with a handful of teams that would have been on a Rodgers sweepstakes if it had unfolded before the NFL draft. For some of those teams, Rodgers’ potential “Last Dance” with the Packers will continue to be a story they’ll watch from afar, holding on to the idea that he could be available via trade in 2022.

With that in mind, here are some Rodgers frontrunners next offseason. How many? Well, it all depends on what unfolds with a swath of quarterback experiments being undertaken by multiple teams this season. Among them …

Denver Broncos

Two things were clear at a brief recent visit to Broncos training camp: First, the braintrust is leaning toward Bridgewater as the presumed starter; second, this is going to be a juggling process that will likely last all season.

Indeed, it should be expected that Bridgewater and Lock will both get starting snaps. The Broncos don’t have the quarterback issue resolved — just like it hasn’t been resolved since the end of the 2015 season. That said, Denver’s defense is talented enough that it’s going to encourage head coach Vic Fangio and general manager George Paton to be decisive as the season unfolds. If Bridgewater or Lock struggles, expect changes at the position.

That kind of uncertainty keeps Rodgers on the radar in 2022 if the Broncos don’t ultimately take a sizable leap on Deshaun Watson (which continues to be a possibility). The flexibility for Denver is that the overall roster — and defense especially — should have a nice window for success. Denver adding Rodgers in 2022 would be very similar to the gamble the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took in 2020 on Tom Brady. The difference is how much the Broncos would have to surrender in a trade, and whether the Packers would hand over Rodgers to a team that would instantly become a Super Bowl contender with his presence. Whatever the answer, Denver will be keeping an eye on what develops over the course of the season in Green Bay.

Washington Football Team

This is another franchise similar to the Broncos, as it could have a Super Bowl-worthy defense by the end of 2021. Washington has talent on offense, too, and head coach Ron Rivera appears to have breathed some new life into the organization. Right now, it looks like a roster that come next offseason, will be only one good quarterback from being a very competitive team in a wide-open NFC. That could make Rodgers very enticing for team owner Daniel Snyder.

There’s a little bit of business to consider with Washington, too, given that 2022 will usher in the team’s permanent name change and open up a whole new world of marketing plans. Success on the field — and a marquee quarterback in the middle of it — could be an undeniable draw for the business side of the Washington Football Team in 2021. If Rodgers can bring a Super Bowl window to Washington for even a few seasons, it will be a tide that lifts all boats … including the name-change implications that will dominate Washington in 2022.

Philadelphia Eagles

After the Carson Wentz implosion, general manager Howie Roseman is going to grind on getting the quarterback situation right. If you don’t believe that, you only need to speak with virtually every team that has shown some interest in Deshaun Watson — all of whom have put the Eagles right near the top of the list of teams that would compete for Watson on the trade market. Everyone who was initially interested in Watson over the offseason pointed at the Eagles as one of the teams that was intent on getting involved in trade talks.

At the very least, this shows Roseman is serious about any opportunity to get the quarterback position functioning at a high level. And while the age difference between Watson and Rodgers is significant, Roseman isn’t going to miss an opportunity to poke his nose into any trade scenario that could quickly turn the Eagles toward the right direction. If Roseman is interested in Watson (and he is), then he will definitely take a long look at Rodgers in 2022, as well.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers aren’t looking beyond 2021 with Ben Roethlisberger, which automatically opens up Pittsburgh as a possible Rodgers destination in 2022 and beyond. The three factors in play will be what Roethlisberger ultimately looks like this season; whether there are other younger quarterback options on the table; and how Super Bowl-ready the Steelers would be if Rodgers was dropped into the middle of it.

If Roethlisberger plays out 2021 like a quarterback who is at the end of his career, expect the Steelers to have a significant shakeup at the QB spot next offseason. The question will be how general manager Kevin Colbert and head coach Mike Tomlin view the immediate Super Bowl window. If the right veteran quarterback gets the Steelers into the picture in 2022 and 2023 — and there is no clear younger alternative that makes sense — Rodgers will become a conversation for the Steelers.

Carolina Panthers

This might seem like an off-the-radar spot for Rodgers, but it isn’t. Head coach Matt Rhule went into this past offseason envisioning a post-Teddy Bridgewater scenario where the Panthers could build up their roster to the point of handing it over to a high-level veteran and turning the key on Super Bowl contention. Team owner David Tepper was extremely interested in Deshaun Watson early in the offseason (to the point of being ready to make an aggressive trade offer), but Carolina had to settle on taking a looking at Sam Darnold in a reboot opportunity — and that will be a complication.

Adding Darnold and exercising his fifth-year contract option puts Carolina on the hook for his $18.85 million base salary in 2022. The only way out of that would be to unload Darnold to another team or hope that he could be part of any trade to bring in a veteran like Rodgers. It’s not ideal but if there was one thing we learned when Tepper bailed on Bridgewater after only one season, it’s that he’s not going to slug it out through a second year of Darnold if he struggles in 2021. Especially if there is another high-end option available, which Rodgers would be.

Tepper’s itch to get the quarterback spot resolved — and Rhule’s hope to build a team that needs only the right veteran quarterback — is what keeps Rodgers in potential plans for 2022.

MINNESOTA

The Vikings decided they don’t need CB JEFF GLADNEY hanging around with a felony assault charge on his record.  Ben Goessling of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune:

Vikings cornerback Jeff Gladney was indicted by a grand jury in Dallas County, Texas, on Tuesday on a felony assault charge stemming from an altercation involving a former girlfriend in April.

Later Tuesday, the Vikings released Gladney, a first-round draft pick in 2020.

“We take these matters very seriously and condemn all forms of domestic violence,” the team statement said. “Due to the ongoing legal nature of this matter, we are unable to provide further comment.”

Gladney turned himself in to the Dallas County jail on April 5 after an arrest warrant was issued on a third-degree family violence assault charge. He posted a $10,000 bond and was released.

At the time, the Dallas Police Department said in a statement that Gladney, 24, and a 22-year-old woman “were involved in a verbal altercation over content in a cell phone. The altercation escalated, at which time Mr. Gladney physically assaulted the victim.”

The indictment states that on or about April 2 Gladney caused bodily injury to the woman and impeded her normal breathing and circulation of blood by grabbing and squeezing her neck and throat, striking and pulling her with his hands, and by forcing her “to and against a vehicle window.”

Gladney has not commented publicly on the allegations, but he did post on Instagram in June: “Still hard to believe this girl tryna ruin my life because I wouldn’t be with her … What makes it worse is the actual truth will never be out there.”

On Tuesday, Gladney’s attorney, Morris Overstreet, said he was “a little surprised” the grand jury chose to file an indictment in the case, but added, “The district attorney’s office has to continually evaluate their cases and see if it’s a case they want to try. And so we’re just going to wait and see, be available, defend what we have to defend and see how it moves forward.”

An initial court appearance in Gladney’s case has not yet been scheduled in Dallas County court.

Vikings owner and president Mark Wilf heard the news about Gladney’s indictment just before a news conference on Tuesday and twice called the allegations “obviously very disturbing.”

“The Vikings did what they thought was best for their organization, which we respect, but we still believe in Jeff Gladney’s innocence,” his agent, Brian Overstreet, said in a statement. “We look forward to his day in court so that he can clear his name.”

Gladney is also the subject of a civil lawsuit, filed July 26, in which the woman is seeking more than $1 million in damages. In that suit, she accused him of assaulting her for more than two hours in his truck and attempting to “bribe, manipulate and threaten” her into silence about the incident.

Gladney played in all 16 games last year, starting 15. He did not take part in their offseason program and was not present for the start of training camp last week.

Gladney is now a free agent. According to a league source, the remaining base salary guarantees in Gladney’s contract — $1.109 million in 2021, $1.609 million in 2022 and $1.476 million in 2023 — void because of his release.

NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy said the league “will continue to review this serious and concerning matter under the Personal Conduct Policy and monitor all legal developments.”

According to the personal conduct policy, violations that involve felony assault or domestic violence are subject a baseline suspension without pay of six games for the first offense. Even a player who is charged but not convicted may be found to have violated the policy “if the credible evidence establishes that he engaged in prohibited conduct.”

NFC SOUTH

NEW ORLEANS

LB KWON ALEXANDER returns to New Orleans at a reduced rate.  Mike Triplett ofESPN.com:

Linebacker Kwon Alexander is back with the New Orleans Saints after he spent the offseason recovering from a torn Achilles tendon.

They agreed to a one-year deal worth up to $3 million, his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

It’s a birthday present of sorts for Alexander, who turned 27 on Tuesday.

Alexander, who played college football nearby at LSU, proved to be a good fit for the Saints after they acquired him in a trade with the San Francisco 49ers last November. The 6-foot-1, 227-pounder started seven games for New Orleans and had 27 tackles, a forced fumble and two fumble recoveries. His season ended in December, however, when he suffered a torn Achilles tendon in a Christmas Day victory over the Minnesota Vikings.

The Saints released Alexander in March before he was due to make $13.4 million in salary and bonuses this year. But clearly they kept the door open, and they brought him in for a workout last month after he was healthy enough to resume football activities.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

GM John Lynch is enthused about both of his top QBs.  Curtis Crabtree ofProFootballTalk.com:

The San Francisco 49ers have made it clear that Jimmy Garoppolo will remain the team’s starting quarterback for the present despite taking Trey Lance with the No. 3 overall pick in the NFL Draft this spring.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan has already said that Lance will not get first-team reps with the offense, with a specific exception coming on Tuesday.

But that doesn’t mean that Lance isn’t beginning to turn heads already in 49ers camp.

“He’s looked tremendous,” 49ers G.M. John Lynch said on the Adam Schefter Podcast, via David Bonilla of 49ersWebZone.com. “He really has. I think what’s been most impressive about Trey, everyone wants to talk about physical traits, but the way he approaches his job, he’s a pro in its truest sense.

“We’ve got a lot of guys who love the game and are willing to do the necessary things to prepare, and I think Trey really is an embodiment of that. And he’s looking good on the field too.”

Lance’s athleticism showed in Tuesday’s practice as he tossed a 50-yard touchdown rolling to his left against his body, via Dieter Kurtenbach of the San Jose Mercury News.

But Lynch added that Lance’s presence has also brought out the best from their incumbent starter in Garoppolo.

“Jimmy’s a big-time competitor, and we haven’t played a game yet, but in practice in the offseason and practice in training camp thus far, he’s played his best football since he’s been here, and he’s played a lot of good football. Just look at his record,” Lynch said.

“[Garoppolo] really is playing at a high level, and I don’t want to talk about it too much, as I’m doing so in front of millions of people, but it’s something everyone’s recognizing. He’s really playing at a high level, and that’s what competitors do. When they’re challenged, they rise to the occasion, and I think he’s doing a great job of that.”

Garoppolo has been plenty productive when he’s been available. He just hasn’t been available enough as he’s missed 23 games over the last three seasons with the 49ers. The one year he remained healthy they went to the Super Bowl.

If the eventual hand-off from Garoppolo to Lance can be as seamless as the one from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, the 49ers could be in a great position. Perhaps Lance finds a way to elbow his way into the starting role sooner.

AFC WEST

DENVER

QB DREW LOCK is looking just fine in practice.  Tweets from Mike Klis:

@mikeklis

Does OC Pat Shurmur see separation between Lock/Teddy B? “I’ve seen both guys getting better. This is the best version of Drew I’ve seen. He’s done a really good job. And I expected Teddy to come in … Teddy’s got experience, he’s got experience in multiple offenses.” #9sports

Shurmur on QB battle: “The unintended consequence of this is, sadly, teams typically need 2 quarterbacks throughout the year. All the good work we’re getting will help both of them as we play this season out.” #9sports

AFC NORTH

PITTSBURGH

The Steelers are working to extend EDGE T.J. WATT.  Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:

Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt is heading into the final season of his rookie contract and wants a long-term deal. Steelers President Art Rooney II says he’d like to make that happen as well.

But Rooney said he simply doesn’t know whether the two sides can find a deal they both think is fair before the regular season starts.

“We’d like to get T.J.’s deal done, if we can, before the start of the season,” Rooney said, viaSteelers.com. “That’s the goal. I don’t like to get into those details in terms of the discussions, but we’re going to try to get it done by the start of the season if we can. I try not to get optimistic or pessimistic. I’ve seen these things go so many different ways over the years. We’re just going to do our best and I think both sides want to get something done so that’s always a good thing.”

Watt has been sitting out for most of the Steelers’ training camp practices, apparently not wanting to risk an injury before a deal can get done. If a deal doesn’t get done, Watt will either hit free agency or get the franchise tag in March.

– – –

It’s only August 4 – but the Steelers are cautiously optimistic about QB DWAYNE HASKINS as Thursday’s Hall of Fame Game looms.  Mark Kaboly of The Athletic:

Dwayne Haskins likes the two-minute drill and has ever since he was a little kid.

Maybe that’s why Steelers coach Mike Tomlin threw his No. 3 quarterback onto the field first during the final drill with 1:48 on the clock, the ball at the opponent’s 33-yard line and a touchdown needed.

Well, that wasn’t the reason. The real reason was the Haskins is expected to be in Thursday’s Hall of Fame Game against the Cowboys at the end of the second half and he could find himself in that position, but does it matter after the show Haskins put on?

Haskins made quick work of the 67 yards by going 4 of 6, including hitting his last three throws and a bullet of a 25-yard touchdown pass to Anthony Johnson with more than 40 seconds left on the clock.

“I have always liked the two-minute drill since I was a little kid,” Haskins said. “You have the pressure put on you to make a play. Coach Tomlin wants to see how well I can compete and that’s a moment where I can showcase how I can lead other people.”

It was the second time in five days that Haskins was near flawless in the two-minute drill.

On Thursday, Haskins led the second team to the only touchdown scored in the drill as he converted on three third downs before connecting with Rico Bussey from 30 yards out. That capped a seven-play, 52-yard drive that began with 1:18 on the clock, one timeout available and a touchdown needed.

On Tuesday, Haskins didn’t start strong, throwing incomplete to Bussey, but found something he liked with Johnson. They connected for a 22-yard gain just before the 25-yard touchdown pass. Haskins made quick decisions, which are needed in the drill.

“It was two-man and they covered the go balls on the outside and A.J. ran a great route,” Haskins said. “I gave him a good ball and he ripped it inside. It was nice.”

Haskins has been surprisingly good. He hasn’t had a day yet where he has shown some of the issues that popped up in Washington the last two years. He’s the Steelers’ best play-action passer and his accuracy and decision-making have been good.

He will get a shot on Thursday to show that to the world. Haskins will replace Mason Rudolph sometime in the second quarter and play deep into the third. It is an opportunity for Haskins to push Rudolph for the backup job.

“I plan on making it one,” Haskins said.

Haskins was signed to a futures deal in January. After a bad showing in the spring, Haskins has played well. He has been nimble, slightly moving the pocket with his feet and making the correct reads and strong throws. He has made some throws on the run and handled the motion Matt Canada wants to employ. Haskins isn’t known as a running quarterback, but he has shown that ability, too.

“He’s grown by leaps and bounds,” Tomlin said. “He does a good job of communicating with coaches, with players, gaining an understanding of what we’re trying to do schematically and his role in it, gaining a rapport with the receivers specifically, trying to do the things that we want him to do in the drill work that we do. We’ve made an emphasis that drill work is football-like, but not necessarily football, and so we have certain things that we emphasize under those circumstances. I think he’s done a nice job of that. I think a lot of guys have.”

AFC SOUTH

INDIANAPOLIS

QB PHILIP RIVERS says the Colts (or some other team) could give him a call late in the season.  This tweet from Sam Farmer of the LA Times:

@LATimesfarmer

Spent the first half of the day with Philip Rivers who assures me that, while he’s focused on coaching high school football now, he isn’t closing the door on coming back for a stint late in the season if there’s an NFL team that needs him.

And these quotes:

“I’m just going to stay ready,” Rivers, 39, told Farmer on Tuesday. “I want to make sure I’m very clear: I’m not predicting I will play in December or January, for that matter. One, you’ve got to have somebody who wants you, and two, it’s got to be right.

“But I have not completely ruled that out.”

Rivers said though he’s not exactly in playing shape, he’s still in good shape.

“I’m not quite there,” Rivers said. “I’m getting back there. I wouldn’t have made weight if I had to report (to training camp) last week, that’s for sure. But I am getting back into the lifting and running, and shoot, I occasionally throw a ball around out here in this heat. It’s not too hard to get a good lather going.”

– – –

Meanwhile, Chris Trapasso of CBSSports.com makes the case for a QB already in Naptown – JACOB EASON:

Everyone knew with Jacob Eason. Real early. It was more a matter of when he’d get to the NFL than if he’d get to the league. 

Leaving high school at nearly 6-6 and 208 pounds with 102 touchdowns and just 18 interceptions, Eason was the No. 2 pro-style quarterback in 247 Sports’ Composite Rankings in the class of 2016 and started as a true freshman for the Georgia Bulldogs that fall. Impressive.

OK, he only completed 55.1% of his throws that season but it did feature four multiple-touchdown outings and three 300-yard contests. I was accomplishing far less at 19 years old.

Then, Eason got Wally Pipped. He injured his knee in the season opener of his highly anticipated sophomore campaign. Jake Fromm took over and went on to start 42 consecutive games for the Bulldogs after that. Eason was out of the Georgia program by the end of 2017 and returned “home” to the University of Washington (Eason played high school ball 40 minutes northeast of the school). He replaced Huskies longtime starter Jake Browning. Lot of Jacobs in this story.

And now, after Colts quarterback Carson Wentz has decided to undergo surgery on his injured foot and could miss up to 12 weeks, Eason has the inside track on Indianapolis’ starting job.

As a prospect

In Eason’s lone season at Washington’s quarterback, he completed 64.2% of his passes with 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions at a respectable 8.0 yards-per-attempt average in what was a noticeably traditional offense featuring drop-backs from under center, play-action tosses, and pass plays with two or three receivers running a route.

Eason was my QB5 and No. 55 overall prospect in the 2020 class (remember, quarterbacks get the largest boost to their grade based on positional value in my grading system).

Here’s what I wrote about Eason in my scouting notebook before the 2020 draft:

Prototypical, old-school QB look. Tall, pocket passer with an absolute howitzer for an arm. Wants to stand at the top of his drop, survey and distribute. For being such a powerful passer, his accuracy is good. Footwork needs improvement. Tries to throw off-balance and those throws typically end badly. Tends to see things a tick late and didn’t routinely move through his progressions at Washington. However, he’ll absolutely rip it to the first read. Has a bad tendency to spin out of the pocket against pressure. Pocket patience is pretty good. Pocket drifting isn’t.

When the Colts picked Eason in the fourth round at No. 122 overall, I gave the selection a grade of “A” in real-team and wrote the following:

Perfect landing spot for the ultra-talented but raw Eason. Will have one of the strongest arms in the NFL instantly. Accurate too. Just absolutely crumbles under pressure and is a lower-level athlete for the position. Some progression-reading but needs to get better in that area. Awesome value here for Indianapolis.

Eason’s intrigue is centered around phenomenal natural talent — not just arm strength, he’s accurate too — and the massive potential his inherent skills create for him as a passer.

During his coaching career, Frank Reich has worked closely with these quarterbacks — see if you notice a stylistic trend — Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Andrew Luck, Nick Foles, and Wentz. He has a thing for big, strong-armed, aggressive, mostly pocket passers. All that encapsulates Eason’s game.

Strengths

Eason has a hose. A rocket launcher. A cannon, a bazooka, a howitzer, whatever you like to call a quarterback that truthfully can make any throw on the football field.

While Eason excels stretching the field — how could he not? — the arm talent really pops on intermediate passes that need to be four-seam fastballs to be squeezed in between defenders.

There’s touch to Eason’s throwing repertoire, too. If he was a fastball-only thrower, he wouldn’t have gone in the fourth round. Believe me. Here’s just one example of a gorgeously placed downfield fade against Stanford. The toss to this exact route, with this type of placement, is littered all over Eason’s Washington film.

When Eason is in the eye of the storm and has a second to survey, or simply knows pre-snap where he’s going with the football, he often makes playing the quarterback position, and more specifically ripping high-degree-of-difficulty throws, look effortless.

Weaknesses

As mentioned above in my pre-draft write-up on Eason, his pocket presence and consistency under pressure were clear-as-day limits to his ceiling as a prospect. I would’ve had no issue if a team picked him in the second round because of his raw talent. But the first round was never in the cards because of how far he needed to progress in those more advanced elements of playing the position.

Summary

In Indianapolis, with an elite offensive line, a powerful run game, and Reich as his quarterback-minded head coach, Eason couldn’t ask to step into a much more cushy situation. The Colts’ receiver group has question marks, that’s my only major concern with his audition as an NFL starter.

And, sure, the game is typically a half-step too quick for first-time quarterbacks in the NFL. But Eason’s arm talent can buoy him early in 2021. He’ll be able to react a tick late and still fit the ball into targets as passing lanes are closing.

Last year, Rivers had the NFL’s third-lowest time-to-throw average at 2.39 seconds. Now, some of that was strictly on him. Yet there’s some precedent for Reich’s system producing quarterbacks who get it out fast. In 2018, Luck finished ninth in that stat category at 2.54 seconds, far and away the lowest time in his NFL career. Reich will be a tremendous mentor for Eason.

And, from a position-specific skill perspective, Eason is as talented as Wentz, and his arm is a touch stronger. Both are decent-at-best athletes by today’s NFL quarterback standards, and Eason is a little light on his feet.

Eason has the raw talent, a year in the Colts’ system under his belt, and the offensive personnel around him — particularly up front — to be a pleasant surprise as Wentz’s stand-in this season.

AFC EAST

NEW YORK JETS

Masked or unmasked, Judy Bautista of NFL.com is breathing fresh air at Jets camp in Florham Park.

If spring cleaning had an official football team, it would be this year’s New York Jets. The dinginess of the past few years has been scrubbed away, everything is sparkling and rejuvenation is in the air. Receiver Jamison Crowder noted that he is starting his third season with the Jets and essentially everything and everybody in the building — players, coaches, scouts — has changed. He’s right. Even ownership is different from when Crowder arrived, with Woody Johnson returning from four years as ambassador to the United Kingdom for his own fresh start at running the team he has owned for two decades. Continuity is the holy grail in the NFL, but the Jets needed a reset after a two-win season, a decade out of the playoffs and a quarterbacking tailspin that saw them use eight different starters in the last five seasons, all of which ended with the team under .500.

That’s why Saturday’s practice only heightened the excitement that surrounds the Jets right now.

“If we can give him time and he can make throws like that, we’re going to win a lot of games,” said left tackle Mekhi Becton.

It wasn’t just the bomb that created a stir. This was Wilson’s second practice since signing his rookie contract last week and it followed a rocky premiere that featured poor timing, hesitancy and inaccuracy. None of it was a surprise for a rusty rookie and Wilson shrugged it off, telling reporters that is what practice is for.

There is a bit of an edge to Wilson that belies his wholesome appearance, a self-assuredness he will need to weather the growing pains the Jets are sure to experience. On Saturday, though, Wilson showed the full range of ability that caused the Jets to fall in love during the run up to the draft. He has a quick release, he rolled out and threw on the run, he scrambled to extend broken plays, he threw from odd arm angles.

The Jets are a young team, and while they might have hit rock bottom last season, nobody is fooling themselves. They are still rebuilding. Wilson is far from a finished product. On the field Saturday, he looked slight and in need of a few pounds of muscle. And the Jets are incredibly inexperienced at the most important position — no quarterback on the roster has ever taken a snap in an NFL game and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur is a first-time play-caller. Compounding it all is the tragic death of assistant coach Greg Knapp, the long-time quarterback shaper who was expected to tutor Wilson.

Still, these first glimpses of Wilson are restorative. Coach Robert Saleh talked about Wilson’s “tremendous mental horsepower” as he absorbs the offense without becoming overwhelmed by it. It is the on-field display, particularly during broken plays, that will sustain fans who have been looking for a savior every few years since Joe Namath left the field.

“I’m not going to say that’s his strong point, but that’s one of the traits that is very unique about him — he is an improviser,” Saleh said. “You have your runners, you have your scramblers and then you have your pocket passers. He is more of a scrambler in the sense that he’s looking to throw, he’s trying to move, and he can throw off his right, left, sidearm, whatever motion or platform you want to talk about. That’s what makes him unique.”

The Jets did plenty of other work in the offseason to give Wilson the best chance for quick success. They fortified the wide receiver room, signing Corey Davis, drafting Moore and retaining Crowder, who said one of the responsibilities the receivers have with Wilson is to help build his confidence — Wilson does not seem to lack for confidence anyway — by always presenting him with a viable target.

“I’ve definitely seen he has the arm talent, he has the accuracy, he’s definitely a playmaker,” Crowder said. “Once he’s outside the pocket, he can make the throws. You can see the versatility in his game.”

THIS AND THAT

MIKE SANDO’S QB TIERS

Mike Sando of The Athletic has been ranking NFL QBs by Tiers for many years now with the help of a phlanx of NFL insiders.  One of them voted JIMMY GAROPPOLO as a Tier 1,

Here are his 2021 rankings, much edited for space:

The 2021 Quarterback Tiers results have been tabulated, and the ageless Tom Brady, only days short of his 44th birthday, actually improved his standing from last year. That was one of the notable takeaways after 50 NFL coaches and executives cast ballots in the eighth annual edition of these rankings.

Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers stand alone as unanimous Tier 1 choices heading into the 2021 season. Brady is not too far behind, joined in the top tier by Russell Wilson and a quarterback whose future remains in some question. Drew Brees and Philip Rivers are out, as both retired. Ben Roethlisberger is hanging on, but losing ground. Josh Allen is surging, while voters had to decide how high to rank Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow after just one season.

The all-star voting panel included seven general managers, five head coaches, 11 coordinators, 15 executives, seven quarterbacks coaches and five others working in front offices or in other coaching capacities. They placed 34 veteran quarterbacks into one of five tiers, from best (Tier 1) to worst (Tier 5). Quarterbacks were placed in the tiers in which they received the most votes, ordered by average vote. Unanimous Tier 1 choices averaged 1.00, while the lowest-rated player averaged 4.34.

The survey excludes rookies because voters have not seen them play in the NFL. Two veteran quarterbacks are featured for teams who have not formally named starters or who face some uncertainty at the position.

TIER 1

A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.

T-1. Aaron Rodgers

Tier 1 votes: 50 | 2020 Tier: 1

Rodgers stands as a unanimous Tier 1 selection for the first time since 2018 and the fifth time in eight years.

“There aren’t many who can purely take the game over when they need to,” a defensive coordinator said. “Aaron can take the game over if he feels like it. He can take the play calling over. He can work his matchups however he wants.”

A quarterbacks coach who placed Rodgers in Tier 2 last offseason repented.

“Shame on me for doing what I did last year,” this coach said.

There is one area where Rodgers has declined, by most accounts.

“You really see a difference in his short-area burst and his top-end speed,” another coach said.

T-1. Patrick Mahomes

Tier 1 votes: 50 | 2020 Tier: 1

It’s fitting that Mahomes and Rodgers are the only unanimous Tier 1 choices this year. They are indeed different.

“They are the only two that can operate in the pocket or escape left or escape right to throw off of any platform with a sniper’s accuracy,” a coach with both NFC North and AFC West experience said. “That is where they are really high-end athletes, like basketball player athletes. I’m taking Mahomes and Rodgers in anything from cornhole to match-play golf.”

Mahomes is a unanimous Tier 1 choice for the second consecutive season, joining Rodgers and Brady as the only players to earn that distinction more than once since the survey began in 2014 (Wilson in 2020 is the only other unanimous Tier 1 selection).

“Mahomes is the best I’ve seen,” a head coach said. “He’s played two bad games in his career. They’re both in Super Bowls, but I’ve never seen anybody as good as him, and seeing him live is even more impressive. If you are open, he doesn’t miss. He looks like he is playing JV football compared to everybody else.”

3. Tom Brady

Tier 1 votes: 41 | Tier 2 votes: 9 | 2020 Tier: 2

Brady is back in Tier 1 following a one-year absence, with some separation between him and the top two.

“He might be a 1, but I really don’t think you want him trying to win every game on his own,” a head coach said. “You want to save him for the end of the game, fourth quarter, two-minute drives in the playoffs. Get him to those points and let him do his thing.”

Voters think Brady needs more help than Rodgers or Mahomes needs, but it’s difficult to argue with the results in Tampa, where Brady showing up turned a losing team into a Super Bowl winner. The Tier 1 quarterback can transform an organization beyond his contributions on the field.

“Tier 1, you have to have that physical component, that team-leading component and that instructional component, where if the quarterback coach gets sick, you do the rest of the season without a coach and that guy runs the room because he’s running the clicker half the time anyway,” one voter said. “That’s what a Tier 1 quarterback is.”

“The holes in his game are athletically related, but he still showed the ability to operate at a high level at the line of scrimmage,” a personnel director said. “He still has an arm and he can still beat you at all levels. He has his James White now in Giovanni Bernard. If you’re not on the same page as him, then there are going to be opportunities for the opponent to take it the other way, but the more comfortable he gets in the system, the rarer that is going to be.”

4. Russell Wilson

Tier 1 votes: 40 | Tier 2 votes: 10 | 2020 Tier: 1

This is Wilson’s third consecutive season in the top tier. It was unanimous last offseason. Ten voters placed him in Tier 2 this time.

“When we played him last year, I almost saw, I felt like I saw live, a semi-dropoff in his game,” an offensive coach said. “I felt like he looked older, a little bit slower and their offense did not help schematically. Watch him in their last game of the year, they had to win and he was not good. He wasn’t getting away from it as fast, he was missing throws.”

Wilson still got 40 votes in Tier 1. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Mahomes and Andrew Luck are the only other quarterbacks to get that many top-tier votes.

“When the Bears were rumored to have interest in him, I was praying every day that he was going to Chicago just to get the guy out of the damn division,” a voter from an NFC West rival said. “I just can’t take any more. He has taken so much food off my table. He is so good. He is a wizard. It is so tough to beat him, just so tough.”

5. Deshaun Watson

Tier 1 votes: 26 | Tier 2 votes: 23 | Tier 3 votes: 1 | 2020 Tier: 1

Watson was fifth overall and the final quarterback in the top tier last year as well. The accusations made against him in civil lawsuits did not affect how voters evaluated him as a player, although the uncertainty surrounding the situation created additional options.

“I feel like you can put him a 1, 2 or 4 and not be wrong,” a defensive coordinator said. “You could ‘4’ him for who the fuck knows what is going to happen. I’m going to go 1. If he is on the field, he is a 1.”

TIER 2

A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

6. Josh Allen

Tier 1 votes: 20 | Tier 2 votes: 30 | 2020 Tier: 3

The 20 first-tier votes Allen received are five more than the combined total for all the quarterbacks ranked below him. The gap between Allen and Watson above him is much smaller than the gap between Allen and Lamar Jackson below him. Allen is one more excellent season from joining the top tier.

“He is huge, he sees the field, and his mobility and pure power are really rare for the position,” a defensive coach said. “He’s got rare arm talent to access any part of the field. He showed that outside the pocket, he’s got real deep accuracy. He improved dramatically when the pocket is tight. This guy became one of the elite players in the league, regardless of position. He has affected the belief of that team in a big way. They have taken on his personality, his energy, his toughness.”

The 30 voters placing Allen in the second tier generally agreed. They wanted to see him prove it with another strong season before anointing him.

A defensive coordinator who placed Brady and Wilson in Tier 2 said Allen isn’t nearly advanced enough as a pure pocket passer or reader of defenses to belong in Tier 1.

“He perplexes me because in my career I have not seen someone go from as inaccurate as he was in college to making this kind of transition,” a personnel director said. “I need to see some sustainability before placing him in the top tier.”

T-7. Lamar Jackson

Tier 1 votes: 4 | Tier 2 votes: 38 | Tier 3 votes: 8 | 2020 Tier: 2

Jackson surged to the brink of Tier 1 last year following his 2019 MVP season. This year, he settled into a range where some think he will remain — among the top 10 quarterbacks, but not the top five.

“I think he is who he is going to be,” an evaluator said. “They have to call the game a certain way, and if they call it right, he will produce for them. He is not going to sit back in the pocket and kill you. That is just not who he is.”

Voters do not think adding talent at wide receiver will transform the Ravens’ offense the way Stefon Diggs’ addition catapulted Buffalo.

“I look at Kyler (Murray) and Lamar Jackson very similarly,” an exec said. “Their athleticism is what carries them and maybe opens up some things throwing-wise, but if you can keep them in the pocket, they are just guys. There is no question they are going to win games because of Lamar, but will they ever be good enough to win a championship with him?”

At the other extreme, eight voters who place greater weight on pure passing relegated Jackson to Tier 3.

“You find another team that plays as much 13 personnel, 12 personnel to be run-game oriented,” an evaluator said. “To me, he is a guy you win with and his legs are an X-factor, but you do not win because of his arm. I did not think there were enough special passing traits to elevate him. All the guys in Tier 2 are better pure passers.”

T-7. Matthew Stafford

Tier 1 votes: 4 | Tier 2 votes: 38 | Tier 3 votes: 8 | 2020 Tier: 2

Stafford rose two spots from last year after Drew Brees retired and Ben Roethlisberger fell into Tier 3. The vote distribution for the Lions-turned-Rams starter was virtually unchanged. Quite a few think he can ascend under coach Sean McVay, but durability concerns persist.

“McVay’s system will play to his strengths,” an NFC North coach said. “Stafford played some of his better football when they did more under-center stuff at Detroit. Before that, they were so much gun, dropback pass game and you saw the gunslinger in him, where he had his up-and-down games.”

“I’m going to say he’s a 3,” an evaluator from an NFC West rival said. “Durability is the issue, and then he has those one-off, what-the-hell-was-that type decision making. But that level of talent with McVay, trust me, I wish it wasn’t in our division.”

9. Dak Prescott

Tier 1 votes: 1 | Tier 2 votes: 41 | Tier 3 votes: 8 | 2020 Tier: 2

Prescott broke his ankle, missed the final 11 games and actually polled better this year than in the past with a 2.14 average. Through his own rise and the retirements of players such as Brees and Philip Rivers, Prescott has climbed from 17th to 12th to ninth in Quarterback Tiers over the past three years.

“He just quietly does his thing, and I think the biggest proof of who and what he is, is what that team was without him — it was not good,” an evaluator said.

The Cowboys ranked eighth in offensive EPA with Prescott in the lineup last season. They ranked 29th without him.

“He is a 2, a top 2,” a senior defensive coach said. “In that system, he controls everything. He is really good at the line of scrimmage. He puts them into the right plays, he can identify defenses, he has the arm talent to do it. I was impressed when we played them. When they were behind and he had to start operating at the line of scrimmage, you can see, man, that dude has something to him.”

10. Justin Herbert

Tier 1 votes: 4 | Tier 2 votes: 37 | Tier 3 votes: 7 | Tier 4 votes: 2 | 2020 Tier: NA

No quarterback has debuted higher than Herbert since the second year of Quarterback Tiers (the entire league debuted in 2014, the first year of the survey). The 2.14 average vote for Herbert beats the 2.52 debut for Prescott in 2017 and the 2.53 debut for Baker Mayfield in 2019. Those other players got zero top-tier votes in their debuts. Herbert got four. Too soon?

“What did our illustrious former Stanford, Arizona and Minnesota head coach say, something about crowning their asses?” an offensive coach said, referring to the late Dennis Green. “Yes, go ahead and crown his ass. I think he’s going to do it again. He’s got juice, he’s got attitude, and the right attitude. Now, he hasn’t hit any adversity, and expectations were so low last year. Now what?”

“I gave Herbert a 1,” an evaluator said. “We played him last year, and the guy had it all: athletic, arm strength, timing, anticipation. I give him more credit because he did it his rookie year, he maintained it through the season. Unfortunately, he’s another guy who has a new staff, no continuity.”

The few voters placing Herbert below the second tier wanted to see how staff changes and expectations altered the dynamic, especially now that opponents have studied him.

11. Matt Ryan

Tier 2 votes: 32 | Tier 3 votes: 18 | 2020 Tier: 2

Ryan is one of seven quarterbacks to appear in all eight Quarterback Tiers surveys. Four from that group rank ahead of him: Rodgers, Brady, Wilson and Stafford. Roethlisberger and Cam Newton rank lower than him. Ryan is somewhere in the middle, with one foot near each camp. He has never rated lower than his 2.36 average this year, but with Arthur Smith taking over as head coach, there is some thought Ryan might stabilize.

“He has enough weapons around him and Arthur Smith, based on what he did with Ryan Tannehill, I think Matt will do equally well, especially with the addition of (Kyle) Pitts,” an exec said. “Having a good tight end will help him a lot.”

The Tennessee comparison is imperfect.

“Ryan and Stafford were both 3s for me because they have proven they cannot do it without the running game or defense,” another exec said. “In Matt Ryan’s peak year, they were pretty good defensively, and the coordinator (Kyle Shanahan) helped him.”

12. Kyler Murray

Tier 2 votes: 30 | Tier 3 votes: 18 | Tier 4 votes: 2 | 2020 Tier: 3

Murray commanded 10 additional votes in the top two tiers from his Quarterback Tiers debut one year ago. That was good for a two-spot gain in the rankings. There was no consensus on how far Murray might climb ultimately. Some voters thought he might be as apt to slide into Tier 3 as advance toward Tier 1.

“He’s supremely talented, and he has shown enough early to feel good about it,” an offensive coach said.

Some want to see more evidence Murray possesses the “dynamic makeup” that helped Wilson reach Tier 1 as a quarterback unusually short in stature. Murray’s decision to train away from the team’s facility while openly talking about resuming his baseball career left the impression with some that he could do more.

Last season, Fox NFL analyst Brock Huard said he was hearing from Cardinals sources that the quarterback was “laser-focused on Sunday, he loves to compete, but that laser focus is not there Monday through Saturday.”

Some voters said similar things.

“I’m probably an outlier, but I’m more a 3 with him,” an evaluator said. “If you are going to be that size, you have to have a dynamic makeup like a Russell Wilson to succeed at a high level over a period of time. Murray has not been there all offseason, and there are some concerns there. I felt that way when he was coming out, that he played off his ability and it would catch up to him.”

13. Ryan Tannehill

Tier 2 votes: 27 | Tier 3 votes: 23 | 2020 Tier: 3

The 27 votes for Tannehill in the second tier exceed by three his combined total in six previous appearances on Quarterback Tiers ballots.

“He is a 2 for sure, and he may be verging on a 1, but he has been helped by that system a lot,” a former head coach said. “He has become a very good decision maker. That is one thing that is lost and it’s the No. 1 thing you look for in evaluating these quarterbacks. The physical part is there with all these guys, with some variance, but the guys that are the best are the best decision makers. What goes into that? Understanding the offense, what the defense is doing, vision, pocket presence.”

“The only thing that really lingers with me, and maybe it shouldn’t, is the playoff game (20-13 loss to Baltimore),” an offensive coordinator said. “When he had to make some throws, he didn’t make them. He did not elevate them when they needed him to elevate them. But that’s a 2 sometimes also.”

14. Joe Burrow

Tier 2 votes: 27 | Tier 3 votes: 17 | Tier 4 votes: 6 | 2020 Tier: 2

Burrow played 11 games as a rookie, did not splash statistically and had a 2-7-1 starting record before suffering a serious knee injury. The league loves him, not just off his college career, but off what happened when he was on the field in 2020.

“The only thing I can go off is what I saw before we played him and when we played him,” a defensive coach. “This guy is talented. He really is. He is stronger in the pocket than you think, he’s got some elusiveness to him, and I think his accuracy is just top-notch. He has all the tools to be in the 2s and potentially be a 1 down the road.”

Some feared the Bengals might not help Burrow sufficiently, although one voter within the AFC North said he was crushed when Cincinnati drafted receiver Ja’Marr Chase, Burrow’s former teammate at LSU. This coach said he would have been relieved if Cincinnati drafted a tackle instead, from a defensive planning standpoint.

“He gets rid of the ball, he knows where he’s going with the ball,” a defensive coordinator said. “I think this guy is going to be legit — like, legit legit. Carson Palmer legit. You can win with that dude. I think eventually he can be a 1 if Cincinnati doesn’t screw it up.”

TIER 3

A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.

15. Derek Carr

Tier 2 votes: 22 | Tier 3 votes: 28 | 2020 Tier: 3

Carr jumped six spots in the rankings as 22 voters placed him in Tier 2, up from only nine over the past two seasons combined. Carr now resides about where voters saw him heading into the 2018 season.

“Your eyes tell you he’s a 3 sometimes, but it’s hard to say that when you look at the production,” an exec said. “The knock is still that, you pressure him and he’s going to get sped up and he’s going to look anxious at times, but you look at the production and you say, ‘OK, if they could have played functional defense, what’s the record look like?’ ”

It’s pretty much impossible to say Carr is holding back the Raiders.

“He’s a nice kid, and I wondered the last couple years, can he overcome Jon Gruden beating him up?” an offensive coach said. “Maybe he has figured it out, or he has no more butt left to rip any more. Maybe he went to Las Vegas and lost his ass. This guy played great against Kansas City last year, which he had not done before, and if he was available, you’d have 10 teams lining up for him.”

Carr peaked in Quarterback Tiers heading into the 2017 season, when he commanded eight Tier 1 votes and ranked seventh. He seemed to be ascending then. Is he now?

“I think what you saw last year will be the absolute best you see Derek Carr play,” a personnel director said. “I don’t know if he has any more room to grow. They have had a strong run game, they had some weapons on the outside. He played with the most confidence I’ve seen him play in his entire career. Is that sustainable?”

16. Ben Roethlisberger

Tier 1 votes: 1 | Tier 2 votes: 19 | Tier 3 votes: 27 | Tier 4 votes: 3 | 2020 Tier: 2

Roethlisberger never ranked lower than eighth previously. Now, at age 39, he has fallen to 16th, including third in his own division, barely ahead of a rising Baker Mayfield.

A GM said Roethlisberger would still scare opponents in a playoff game but admitted it might be more off reputation.

“When you are a statue, you have to get rid of the ball quick,” an exec who placed Roethlisberger in Tier 4 said. “They did that. When you took that away, he could not do anything. Maybe he turns into a 3 if they get the run game going with Najee Harris, but they have an offensive coordinator who has never called a play in the league, so I’m not sure what that will look like. I think Ben is almost to the 19th hole.”

17. Baker Mayfield

Tier 2 votes: 17 | Tier 3 votes: 33 | 2020 Tier: 3

Voters like Mayfield. Most also see the supporting cast and offensive coaching helping him more than the other way around. Dividing credit along those lines makes it tougher for some to place Mayfield in Tier 2.

“Baker is probably in the 2 category, but you don’t really know with him,” an evaluator said. “You know they got a new head coach and they called it right, but they also didn’t do as much as they could have done with a legit QB.”

This evaluator compared Mayfield to prime Cincinnati Andy Dalton, but when Dalton was at his best, in 2015, his Bengals ranked fifth on defense and special teams. Mayfield’s Browns were 24th last season and still went 11-5. A different evaluator put it another way, calling Mayfield more point guard than shooting guard, but a GM called Cleveland the greatest threat to Kansas City in the AFC, thanks in part to Mayfield.

“He does benefit from a great offensive line, he has a great running game, but I do think he makes that thing go,” this GM said. “When Odell (Beckham) got hurt and they started to take off, I think that was because Baker could be more of himself. If you truly are a product of the talent that is out there, and are truly a 3, when you lose an all-pro receiver, your play should tail off. But his play improved when they relied on him to use other weapons.”

18. Kirk Cousins

Tier 2 votes: 7 | Tier 3 votes: 43 | 2020 Tier: 3

Cousins finished the 2020 season ranked fourth in EPA per attempt, second in yards per attempt, sixth in passing touchdowns, eighth in passer rating and, once again, first in nobody’s heart. He slipped deeper into Tier 3 this year.

“If you look at the stats, he is a 2 all day, but every year, I have the same problems with him,” a GM said. “Off-schedule, it is tough. When the guy is open, there is no one more accurate, but when the picture is not perfect, he is not as good off-schedule as some of these guys. I would give him a 2. He can carry the team sometimes.”

Those off-schedule issues confound some in the league.

“In the boot game, he is out there quick and gets his hips around and looks good doing it,” one voter said. “That is why Kyle (Shanahan) wanted him and likes him. Contrast that to his in-the-pocket vs. an onrushing defender. At times, he looks that equipment intern you use in the pass-rush drill during training camp who can’t get out of the way.”

 “He struggles to win the big games, and there is a fear factor to his game that you can see up close if you are in the division,” a voter from the NFC North said.

Three potentially underrated quarterbacks in this survey — Tannehill, Cousins and Mayfield — play for teams with dynamic running backs. Some say running backs do not matter, but truly elite ones siphon credit from their quarterbacks.

T-19. Jared Goff

Tier 2 votes: 5 | Tier 3 votes: 43 | Tier 4 votes: 2 | 2020 Tier: 3

Goff peaked in Tier 2 heading into the 2019 season. He has slid backward ever since. Some voters wonder how Goff will be better in Detroit.

“He may prove he’s a 2 and better than the Rams let on, but the problem he’s got, he may have gone into one of the worst situations in football,” an offensive coach said. “I might be wrong. It might be the best thing in the history of football. But if I had to wager one way or the other, I’d wager that might be one of the worst situations you could be in.”

T-19. Carson Wentz

Tier 2 votes: 9 | Tier 3 votes: 35 | Tier 4 votes: 6 | 2020 Tier: 2

Goff and Wentz are tied in Tier 3 after being traded by the teams that drafted them 1-2 and later extended their contracts at great cost. Unlike Goff, Wentz is joining a 2020 playoff team with established leadership. He’ll also be reunited with a coach he has succeeded under, Frank Reich. But Wentz was playing worse than Goff, so he has more ground to make up.

“If he plays like he did in Philly, he is like Drew Lock — he just does dumb things,” an offensive play-caller said. “Right now, from the neck up, he is broken. Frank Reich is going to have to sort him out. Frank is good. Frank can do that. If Wentz could ever capture what he had that first year, and the confidence … he’s a 4 until then.”

A voter attuned to the situation in Philadelphia thought Wentz needed hard coaching.

“Carson’s biggest issue is, he tries to hit home runs,” this voter said. “That is why he holds onto the ball and takes sacks. That is why he gets hurt running around. He has not mastered live-to-play-another-down, throw-the-checkdown-and-let’s-go. The psychology of the situation last year fed into that: ‘I have to make these plays to show them I’m still the guy.’ No one reeled him in. The partnership with Frank, the good defense, they’ll play the game a little different, and I think he will surprise people this year.”

 “I’m not buying the hype that he played all that good in Philly with Frank,” a former head coach countered. “He played good, but they were a good team, too. He will play as a 3 at times, but when it comes down to it, he’s going to be a 4 when you put 17 games together. Wentz is too mentally soft.”

21. Jimmy Garoppolo

Tier 1 votes: 1 | Tier 2 votes: 6 | Tier 3 votes: 37 | Tier 4 votes: 6 | 2020 Tier: 3

“Jimmy is better than people think, but if he is in the market, to me, you are not like, ‘Oh, yeah, let’s get Jimmy G,’ but you would take him,” a defensive coordinator said. “I think Jimmy functions in Kyle Shanahan’s offense and understands his offense, and Kyle knows he can get him to do what he needs him to do, but I think he would like to have a more talented player. It would not surprise me if Lance was starting midway through the season. I think he has a little bit of the Mahomes-type traits.”

22. Daniel Jones

Tier 2 votes: 1 | Tier 3 votes: 28 | Tier 4 votes: 20 | Tier 5 votes: 1 | 2020 Tier: 3

The vote distribution for Jones this year is nearly identical to the distribution last year. Then as now, voters want to know why Jones holds the ball and suffers too many turnovers (a league-high 39 over the past two seasons, in 27 games). Is he a slow processor? Does he struggle to see the field? Will he build on whatever incremental progress was made last season?

“Jones’ fatal flaw has been the turnovers, but it’s because he holds the ball too long,” a defensive coach said. “That worries me all the time. Sometimes it is a product of the offense. I’m not sure that is the case there. It’s like he doesn’t see things all the time. Philly ended the game with a strip-sack, not because they got a great rush, but because he holds the ball a long time. I worry that he cannot get past that.”

A longtime offensive coach compared Jones to Dalton a decade ago. Put an excellent team around him and he’ll have a chance. Take away the above-average supporting cast, and prepare to struggle. Jones’ athleticism does separate him. He had an 80-yard run against the Eagles, punctuated by an open-field stumble.

“I think there is enough ability there,” an exec said. “You can start and win with him. He’s another guy, two different coaches, a couple of different offenses, haven’t really had a lot of weapons around him. They tried to upgrade that this offseason and they got Saquon Barkley coming back. This will be the truest evaluation of him.”

23. Ryan Fitzpatrick

Tier 2 votes: 1 | Tier 3 votes: 25 | Tier 4 votes: 21 | Tier 5 votes: 3 | 2020 Tier: 4

The general feeling among voters is that Washington will be better with Fitzpatrick, while Miami will be worse without him.

“I always hated playing him because he doesn’t give a crap,” an exec said. “He is 39 years old, has made plenty of money, he’s just out there slinging it around. Teams that played Miami last year were happy as all get-out when they put Tua in there. And now they have this amazing defense in Washington.”

 “This guy is just a baller,” a defensive coach said. “He’s like a late-career Dave Krieg with a ZZ Top beard. The guy can throw four touchdowns or four interceptions or both. He can fumble the fuck out of the ball. He’s the guy who makes you say, ‘I think we can start him,’ and then after about 10 starts, you are not going to re-sign him. Then someone else picks him up and goes, ‘I think we can start him.’ ”

An offensive coach called Fitzpatrick “a scary 3” who gets the ball out quick, works hard, can lead a team and then, at some point, could be prone to toss three interceptions in the second half of a single game. Fitzpatrick has tossed three or more picks over a full game 18 times in 146 starts, including twice in 20 starts with the Dolphins.

“He’s a strong 3,” a personnel director said. “He is a wily old guy, and if you have some pieces around him, you have a chance. It’s not what you want, but he gives you a chance.”

TIER 4

A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player with some upside or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.

24. Sam Darnold

Tier 3 votes: 23 | Tier 4 votes: 27 | 2020 Tier: 3

Darnold slipped into Tier 4 after a third successive dismal season on offense with the Jets, who ranked 32nd in offensive EPA by a wide margin during his time with the team. Factors beyond Darnold obviously contributed. The Jets are the only team with zero Pro Bowl players on offense over the past five seasons.

“I love his physical ability, his toughness,” a veteran offensive coordinator said. “Everyone blamed the ‘SC situation, the coaching, on turning the ball over, getting antsy in the pocket, but it hasn’t changed in the NFL. Is it because of the coaching situation in New York, or is that because this is who he is? I’m afraid it’s who he is.”

Separating Darnold from the Jets’ unusually poor roster, former coach Adam Gase and the draft expectations that followed the quarterback into the NFL’s largest media market provides an opportunity to assess Darnold more cleanly.

“It’s tough to say with what he had around him the last couple years,” an exec said. “I don’t want to bury him because he was such a solid college player coming out and the Jets, that has been where quarterbacks go to die. He just did not have enough help.”

One former GM said he was always skeptical on Darnold because “it just seemed like bad shit happened when he had the ball in his hands.” A current GM said he preferred Darnold to the Giants’ Jones for his ability to get the ball out of his hands more quickly.

“I gave him a 3,” an exec said. “He will have good weapons around him. Now it is his make-or-break year as a starter.”

25. Jameis Winston

Tier 2 votes: 2 | Tier 3 votes: 16 | Tier 4 votes: 30 | Tier 5 votes: 2 | 2020 Tier: NR

Nearly all voters thought the Saints would be best off starting Winston, thereby preserving the special packages suited for Taysom Hill. But voters didn’t necessarily think the Saints had found a long-term successor for Brees.

“I watched Winston this offseason, still saw a lot of good things,” an offensive coach said. “I think he’s a really good quarterback. I really think he’s a great pocket passer. Yes, he threw a lot of interceptions that year, but …”

But, what? Some voters thought Bruce Arians’ higher-risk pass offense in Tampa played to the worst instincts of Winston, and that a more selective menu could help Winston become more efficient.

26. Teddy Bridgewater

Tier 3 votes: 19 | Tier 4 votes: 27 | Tier 5 votes: 4 | 2020 Tier: 3

Most voters thought Bridgewater would be the best choice to start for Denver, a reflection of opinions on Drew Lock as much as anything.

“My gut tells me Bridgewater is just sort of like the guy that always looks better when he’s not playing a lot,” a former defensive coordinator said.

“Bridgewater’s probably a step above Andy Dalton at this point in their careers, and in another couple years, he’ll be Andy Dalton,” a defensive coordinator said.

27. Cam Newton

Tier 3 votes: 19 | Tier 4 votes: 26 | Tier 5 votes: 5 | 2020 Tier: 3

A large block of voters thinks Newton is damaged beyond repair and headed for an early exit as the Patriots turn over the offense to rookie Mac Jones.

“I just think he’s broke,” a GM said. “He no longer has the elite traits to compensate for some injuries.”

28. Andy Dalton

Tier 3 votes: 14 | Tier 4 votes: 30 | Tier 5 votes: 6 | 2020 Tier: NR

Perhaps Justin Fields wins the starting job for Chicago heading into the season. In the meantime, the Bears have Dalton on a one-year deal for $10 million.

“He’s the same as Bridgewater to me, very similar guy,” an offensive coach said. “They got problems in Chicago because they’re going to have to play that young quarterback early, if not right away, and it’s all over with if that kid doesn’t play good.”

 “I would not even say legitimate starter at this point,” a different evaluator said. “I think he has really fallen off. Throughout his career, you would say he was a 3, but his accuracy was bad last year, his arm was poor, not real mobile.”

29. Tua Tagovailoa

Tier 3 votes: 4 | Tier 4 votes: 44 | Tier 5 votes: 2 | 2020 Tier: NA

The Dolphins selected Tagovailoa over Herbert after not landing Brady, and now some wonder if they should have stuck with Fitzpatrick. Meanwhile, offensive coordinator Chan Gailey resigned one season into a three-year contract, giving the Dolphins their third OC in three seasons under coach Brian Flores, amid rumors the team has interest in prying Watson from Houston.

“Look at these teams with good defenses that didn’t do everything they could to get Brady,” an evaluator said. “Miami, the Rams, Washington and maybe even New England could be reviewing hotel layouts near SoFi Stadium (site of the next Super Bowl) right now if they had Brady.”

Accuracy is seen as Tagovailoa’s strongest trait. It’s an important one to have. However, voters do not see special, differentiating talent.

“I don’t think the arm is elite enough, and I don’t think he is special as an athlete to have that kind of X-factor to overcome it,” an exec said. “The supporting cast will have to be really strong. They have one of the worst running back groups in the league. He is a 4 who may end up in that no-man’s land.”

“He’s accurate and doesn’t turn the ball over, as advertised, and the offense is set up for Tua to succeed with the influx of receiver help,” a coach said. “Big year for him.”

30. Jalen Hurts

Tier 3 votes: 4 | Tier 4 votes: 44 | Tier 5 votes: 3 | 2020 Tier: NR

The Eagles own two picks in the 2022 draft’s first round and could add another from Indianapolis if Wentz plays for the Colts enough to upgrade the pick from a second-rounder. Voters think there’s a good chance that draft capital will help Philadelphia land its next quarterback. First, Hurts gets his shot.

“He was a high school state champ, won a championship at Alabama, transferred to Oklahoma and went to the (College Football Playoff),” a former head coach said. “Although he is not accurate in all areas, he is kind of like (Donovan) McNabb. He is a leader, he is going to succeed because he is going to will himself to succeed if you put half a team around him. He is mentally tougher than about 18 of the starting quarterbacks in the league right now.”

An offensive coach rejected the “winner” angle.

“Please, he won everywhere he went because the places that he went were Oklahoma and Alabama,” this coach said. “He does have all those extra things, the toughness, the grit. He just can’t throw it well enough and accurately enough. And I don’t think he’s going to turn into Dak. I don’t think he has that level of passing skill or just arm talent. I don’t dislike him, but I don’t think he’s a real starting definite NFL guy. I’m not buying the package.”

 “The arm was there, the accuracy was not there, the touch was not there,” a personnel director said of Hurts. “Hopefully, he can improve, but right now he is a 4.”

31. Drew Lock

Tier 3 votes: 5 | Tier 4 votes: 37 | Tier 5 votes: 6 | 2020 Tier: 4

Lock is one of 32 quarterbacks with at least 16 starts over the past two seasons. He ranks last among them in completion rate and tied for last with Darnold in both EPA per attempt and passer rating.

“He’s athletic, he’s got a cannon for an arm, he is talented,” a former GM said. “He is just very up and down. He was up and down in college, and I just don’t know if that is always going to be the case.”

 “I love the athlete, love the size, love the arm strength, but I don’t think he is ever going to process,” an exec said of Lock.

32. Tyrod Taylor

Tier 3 votes: 8 | Tier 4 votes: 30 | Tier 5 votes: 12 | 2020 Tier: 4

Taylor appears here because there’s a chance Watson won’t play for the Texans. Taylor slipped deeper into Tier 4 this year after attempting only 36 passes over the past two seasons. Is Taylor any worse heading into his age-32 season?

“I think you can win eight with him (during a 16-game season),” a former GM said. “I don’t know that they can win eight with him. But you can win eight, and in a really good year nine, and then that’s it.”

33. Taysom Hill

Tier 3 votes: 1 | Tier 4 votes: 33 | Tier 5 votes: 16 | 2020 Tier: NR

The discussion surrounding Hill does not revolve around how good he is as a quarterback. The discussion centers around whether he’s a quarterback at all. Most voters do not think he can be effective as one over a full season.

34. Joe Flacco

Tier 3 votes: 4 | Tier 4 votes: 25 | Tier 5 votes: 21 | 2020 Tier: NR

Flacco appears here because the Eagles have not formally declared Hurts their starter. He was in Tier 2 from 2014-2016, then slipped to Tier 3 from 2017-2019, then did not appear last year. His average tier vote has plummeted from 2.98 two years ago to 4.34 this year.

“One of his best traits was that high-arcing deep ball that would get caught or would draw the PI,” an offensive coach said. “Last year, those weren’t even in the vicinity to get PIs any more. He was throwing 9-balls (‘go’ routes) out of bounds.”