AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
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NFC NORTH
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DETROIT
QB MATHEW STAFFORD is removed from the Covid-19 List. Kevin Patra of NFL.com:
Matthew Stafford did not test positive for COVID-19 after all.
The Detroit Lions announced Tuesday that the starting quarterback had a false-positive test that forced him onto the reserve/COVID-19 list on Saturday. Detroit cornerback Justin Coleman, who was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Thursday, was also activated on Tuesday.
“Today we removed Matthew Stafford from the COVID-IR list and onto the active roster,” the team said in a statement. “As a result of a false-positive test result, he was forced due to NFL/NFLPA protocols to sit out until he received two negative tests. His testing sequence for the pre-entry period was: negative, negative, false-positive. The next three tests were all negative. To be clear, Matthew does NOT have COVID-19 and never has had COVID-19 and the test in question was a False-Positive. Also, all of Matthew’s family have been tested and everyone is negative.”
Per the NFL protocols, players needed three negative tests to enter the facility for training camp. Stafford’s false-positive came on his third test, according to the team, which would have been taken Friday.
Five out of six negative tests is not enough for Mike Florio, ensconced in his West Virginia hideout.
The Lions announced on Tuesday that quarterback Matthew Stafford had a false positive test for COVID-19. That claim leads to a fairly important question, one that may come up against and again this year: How do they know it was a false positive?
“As a result of a False-Positive test result, he was forced due to NFL/NFLPA protocols to sit out until he received two negative tests,” the team said in its statement. “His testing sequence for the Pre-Entry period was: negative, negative, False-Positive. The next three tests were all negative. To be clear, Matthew does NOT have COVID-19 and never has had COVID-19 and the test in question was a False-Positive. Also, all of Matthew’s family have been tested and everyone is negative.”
Again, how do the Lions know it was a false positive?
The Lions presumably are assuming it was a false positive because it was sandwiched around multiple negative results. In theory, however, the negatives could all have been false. (The chances of that many false negatives is slim.) Or perhaps Stafford could have had the virus for a very short period of time.
Regardless, without some sort of a clear, objective test that declares the positive result to be false (for example, a re-test of the exact same sample that tested positive), there’s no way to know for sure that it was a false positive test. So why insist with such clarity and certainty that it was a false positive?
That said, false positives happen. False negatives do, too. If false results are being generated, they can cut both ways. This leads to perhaps the biggest concern the NFL should have regarding COVID-19 testing: How many false negatives will happen, resulting in a player or coach slipping through the cracks and shedding virus and infecting others in a practice or a game?
On the other hand, cancer survivor and nurse Kelly Stafford says her family was harassed by Karens when word of Stafford’s test was released:
After a false positive Covid-19 test put Matthew Stafford, quarterback for the Detroit Lions, on the NFL’s Injured Reserve/Covid list, life has been terrible. And his wife blames the NFL.
That’s according to an Instagram post made by Kelly Stafford, the quarterback’s wife, who called the past four days following the false positive “somewhat of a nightmare.”
“I have been losing my mind because of how my Family has been treated since my husband was put on COVID-IR,” Kelly Stafford wrote. “Even after we knew it was false positive, our school told us they were not allowed back, I was approached in a grocery store and told I was ‘endangering others,’ my kids were harassed and kicked off a playground, I was told I needed to wait in my car when trying to pick up food, and people closest to us had to get tested just so they could go back to work.”
All this, Kelly Stafford says, happened after Saturday, when the Lions placed Matthew Stafford on the league’s Reserve/Covid-19 list. The team removed him from the list Tuesday.
The NFL has said being placed on the list doesn’t mean the player has Covid-19, just that they may have tested positive or is quarantined after being in contact with an infected person.
But after the family’s experience following the false positive test, Kelly Stafford says she wants the league to change — saying it should be “absolutely positive” a player has Covid-19 before making the news public.
“I don’t blame these scenarios on any of the people directly involved.. I understand where they are coming from,” she wrote, referring to the treatment her family received. “But I do blame the @NFL. I blame the @NFL for not holding themselves accountable. These are people’s lives and livelihoods that are in those results in THEIR test sites. Maybe we should be absolutely positive a person has covid before releasing that info to the world.”
And like Stafford, the stay of WR KENNY GOLLADAY on the Dreaded Covid List is short.
On Tuesday, they got their quarterback back. On Wednesday, it was his favorite receiver.
The Detroit Lions activated wide receiver Kenny Golladay off the reserve/COVID-19 list Wednesday, allowing him to return to strength and conditioning workouts with his teammates.
Golladay spent seven days on the COVID list after testing positive for the virus upon reporting to camp last Tuesday.
He’s the fourth of eight Lions to come off the list, joining tight end quarterback Matthew Stafford, tight end Isaac Nauta and cornerback Justin Coleman.
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GREEN BAY
Add WR DAVANTE ADAMS to the list of Packers players puzzled by the pick of QB JORDAN LOVE. Grant Gordon of NFL.com:
Just as was presumed by many, the Green Bay Packers’ failure to draft a wide receiver this past spring was a surprise to just about everybody, including those within the locker room — even the Pack’s No. 1 wideout, Davante Adams.
“We were all expecting to have a receiver drafted, but that wasn’t the case,” Adams told reporters on Tuesday, per NFL Network’s Stacey Dales.
Indeed, adding a receiver to compliment Adams and aid Aaron Rodgers has been a long-running Green Bay storyline.
However, the Packers opted to go through the entire 2020 NFL Draft without selecting a wideout — a decision complicated by free-agent signee Devin Funchess’ choice to opt out of the season. Despite a receiver-rich draft class, the Packers picked Jordan Love in the first round after trading up to grab him. Hence, the receiver quandary has been overshadowed by the already lingering plot line of Rodgers playing with his heir apparent in the same QB room.
That was the question Adams was actually addressing when he dropped the nugget in regard to his surprise about no receiver being selected.
In offering his opinion about the Rodgers-Love conundrum, Adams also relayed that he doesn’t feel as though Love’s selection will affect Rodgers, as he and his quarterback are similar in their drives to be the best regardless of outside motivation.
“I don’t think that it’ll have any type of affect on him,” Adams said. “I don’t think it’s gonna drive him to be a better player or have him sunk in a hole. I think Aaron’s a lot like me, I’m a lot like him, however you wanna put it. Truly confident players who know what they’re capable of, and know what they’ve done, and that continue to work to be better than what they were, we don’t necessarily need – like I don’t care if they brought in Julio Jones in here – that’s not gonna necessarily make me work harder, because I’m already a workhorse, and I already know that I’m trying to be better than I was last year. “
Rodgers is the only starting quarterback Adams has known in his six-season tenure, which has included three straight trips to the Pro Bowl despite having little help from his fellow wideouts. Thus, as shocking as it was to see Love picked rather than a receiver, Adams is confident in his longtime quarterback going forward.
“It may have shocked – you know we were all expecting, it’s no secret – we were all expecting to have a receiver drafted, but that wasn’t the case,” Adams said. “So, Aaron’s gonna come in ballin’ and doing his thing and he’s got the right mindset.”
The bottom line though is this – if the Packers were correct in picking Love as a franchise-type QB all will eventually be forgiven.
But, if Love is a bust as a QB picked at #26, then the Packers braintrust won’t be the braintrust much longer.
And what are the odds? Here are the QBs picked #20 to #35 over the last 20 drafts with some numbers and a impressionistic career grade:
Starts TDP Career Grade
Pick
2020 26 Jordan Love GNB
2018 32 Lamar Jackson AL 22 42 A
2016 26 Paxton Lynch DEN 4 4 F
2014 22 Johnny Manziel CLE 8 7 F
2014 32 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 34 38 B
2012 22 Brandon Weeden CLE 25 31 D
2011 35 Andy Dalton CIN 133 204 B
2010 25 Tim Tebow DEN 16 17 D
2007 22 Brady Quinn CLE 20 12 D
2005 24 Aaron Rodgers GNB 174 364 A
2005 25 Jason Campbell WAS 79 87 C-
2004 22 J.P. Losman BUF 33 33 D
2003 22 Rex Grossman CHI 47 56 C
2002 32 Patrick Ramsey WAS 24 35 D
2001 32 Drew Brees SDG 274 547 A
So 14 drafted QBs with grades – 3 A level picks, 2 others you can live with (Bridgewater, Dalton), maybe Grossman hard to characterize.
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NFC WEST
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ARIZONA
The Cardinals have lost their first player to Covid concerns. Katherine Fitzgerald of the Arizona Republic:
Cardinals offensive tackle Marcus Gilbert has opted out of the 2020 season.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter first reported the news on Tuesday, shortly after coach Kliff Kingsbury said in a press conference that he had not had discussions with players about opting out.
Gilbert is the first Cardinals player to do so. The deadline for players to opt out has been set for Thursday afternoon.
“While this decision was not easy for me, I felt it was the best decision due to my standing as a high-risk player with high-risk family members,” Gilbert tweeted in a statement. “I am grateful for the opportunities that have been afforded to me over many years in the NFL and I am looking forward to returning stronger than ever for the 2021 NFL Season. Furthermore, I am sending out my thoughts and prayers for the safety and success of my teammates and all those playing across the league this year.”
Gilbert, a Gator, is a longtime veteran who spent all of last year on IR.
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AFC WEST
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LAS VEGAS
Raiders QB DEREK CARR is tired of being a punching bag – both personally and as a team. Mike Grimala of the Las Vegas Sun:
Derek Carr met with the media on Tuesday for the first time since reporting to Raiders training camp in Henderson, and the main topic on his mind seemed to be the way he and his teammates are viewed by those outside the organization.
In short, Carr is feeling disrespected.
His thoughts on the subject came out when the seventh-year quarterback was asked if he considered opting out of the season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as other players have done around the league.
He implied the personal stakes were too high this season for him to not suit up.
“Did I think about opting out? I did not,” Carr said. “I have a lot to prove to myself, I have a lot to prove to my organization. I’m being completely honest with you, I’m tired of being disrespected. So there was no question I was going to play this year.”
Carr has started 94 of a possible 96 regular-season games since being drafted in 2014, and he has posted fairly impressive numbers in some categories (64.0 completion percentage, 143 touchdowns to 62 interceptions). But a lack of winning has caused many to question whether Carr is the right QB to lead Las Vegas to the postseason.
The Raiders have posted a 39-55 record in his six years as the starting quarterback.
Ironically, it seems as though Carr’s breakout 2016 campaign is haunting him. He threw for 3,937 yards and 28 touchdowns that season while earning MVP buzz, and more importantly he led the Raiders to a 12-3 record. Unfortunately, a late-season ankle injury kept him sidelined for the team’s playoff game.
While Carr believes his individual performance has continued to improve, the team’s lack of success (the Raiders are 17-30 in the three seasons since) has kept him from being viewed as a top-tier quarterback.
Carr said his mindset has changed and that he’s no longer holding himself to 2016 comparisons.
“I played way better last year than I did in 2016, yet all we do is talk about that because we won 12 games,” Carr said. “I’m done with all that stuff. You can say good stuff, you can say bad stuff, I think you can sense that in the last year or so, I just don’t care anymore. You can say whatever you want. I’m trying to go win this Super Bowl so we can hang one of these banners in this beautiful indoor [facility] that we’ve got.”
The Raiders brought in veteran Marcus Mariota as a free agent, and that has led to speculation that the new addition could push Carr for the starting job, either before or throughout the 2020 season. Carr said he maintains a good relationship with Mariota and that he’s welcoming the challenge — as he has done every year since becoming the starting quarterback.
“In our quarterback room, you have to compete,” Carr said. “That’s what I do. You ask anybody who’s around me, all I’m going to do is compete. I’ve had multiple starters in the NFL come in here and be in the room with me. You can go through the list of who’s started games and who’s been in our quarterback room. It happens all the time. But when you go 7-9, people like to make up stuff.”
Carr wasn’t just standing up for himself on Tuesday, as he also went out of his way to campaign for his teammates to get more respect.
He pointed to low Madden ratings and a lack of Las Vegas players in the recently released NFL 100 rankings and chalked it up as a drawback of the league’s “hype machine.”
Carr enteres his 7th season (how time flies), having been a starter when healthy thoughout the first six. His W-L record is 39-55.
In that time, 21 QBs (including Mariota) have started 60 games. Carr’s passer rating of 90.7 ranks 13th (just ahead of Mariota’s 89.6). He is 17th in TD% percentage, but 7th in INT%. He’s only 19th in yards per attempt.
So he has been just a bit below average among sustained NFL starters (which is a high level). He projects as a bit timid in his style of play. Not sure how Madden ranks him.
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AFC EAST
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BUFFALO
Whoa. CB TRE’DAVIOUS WHITE is uncertain about proceeding with 2020. Tweets from Matthew Fairbarn of The Athletic:
@MatthewFairburn
Bills CB Tre’Davious White said he’s still undecided on whether he will opt out. He wanted to come in and see how everything was operating and take his time with a decision.
@MatthewFairburn
Bills CB Tre’Davious White on his contract said he’s looking the break the cycle for his family and create “generational wealth” for him and his family. Said he’s not going to rush a contract because he’s not negotiating out of desperation. “i’m not hurting for money.”
@MatthewFairburn
It’s very clear in listening to Tre’Davious White that he does everything with his family in mind. Has two young kids at home. “No matter what, my family is going to come first.”
@MatthewFairburn
I won’t speculate on whether Tre’Davious White will play this year. Not my place to do so. Also not going to suggest, as some have, that this is a negotiating ploy by White. He cares deeply about his family and is trying to make a really difficult and personal decision.
Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com is not as sure as Fairburn that White is just thinking “family”:
White, a first-round pick in 2017 and a first-team All-Pro in 2019, is due to earn $1.841 million in base salary this year. He’s also due to receive an option-year salary of $10.244 million in 2021.
Opting out would delay everything by a year. It also would deprive the Bills of his services for a full season.
Frankly, one way for the Bills to persuade White to not opt out would be to offer him an extension. The window is open, he’s proven that he deserves long-term security, and it’s possible that the signing bonus and other guaranteed payments would be enough to get him to choose to give it a try.
Indeed, it’s possible that White is talking about a possible opt-out solely as part of an effort to get a new deal with the Bills. If he is, that’s his prerogative. He definitely has earned a second contract, and the opt-out rules give him the ability to apply extra leverage in order to break free from a wage-scale system that unreasonably delays the financial reward that so many first-round picks earn long before they actually receive it.
If, however, the Bills call his bluff, things could get very interesting between now and 4:00 p.m. ET, with White possibly opting-out to prove to the Bills and everyone else that it wasn’t about contract leverage. Even if it was.
This exchange on twitter two days ago caught the DB’s eye (Cliggaveli is a random troll setting up White’s response):
@Cliggaveli
If im hiring and I see a name onna application “Tre’Davious” nope im ballin his app up and tossin it inna trash like a George Gervin finger roll..I can just HEAR his pants saggin 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Tre’Davious White
@TakeAwayTre_
Shame on you !! This Tre’Davious is a high school class valedictorian and a two time All Sec Academic Honor Roll Student. Also, I graduated in 3 1/2 years from
@LSU
!! But it don’t matter ima be the one doing the hiring !! I’m my own damn boss . NEXT
His number 10 was retired this year at Green Oaks High School in Shreveport. This from BuffaloBills.com in March:
Since he was drafted by the Bills in 2017, cornerback Tre’Davious White has proven time and again that he’s truly special. A rising star in the NFL, White – who received his first Pro Bowl bid this year – is also a dedicated family man and committed community advocate. Making it a priority to give back to his hometown of Shreveport, Louisiana, White has quickly become a role model to the area’s youth. In celebration of his accomplishments, Green Oaks High School, White’s alma mater, recently retired his jersey No. 10.
“It still hasn’t sunk in yet. It’s an incredible honor,” said White with a smile prior to the ceremony. “It’s something I’m going to cherish for a lifetime and to have it happen this early, is very special to me.”
For White, the touching tribute goes far beyond his achievements on the field, serving as an important reminder of the perseverance and unwavering determination that it took for him to get to this point. Less than one decade ago, White was a student at Green Oaks, working tirelessly to perfect his game and to maintain outstanding marks. Graduating as the valedictorian of his class, with a scholarship to LSU, was clearly just the start for the kid from Cooper Road.
Entering his fourth season with the Bills, White believes that one of his fundamental responsibilities as a professional athlete is to inspire those around him.
“Oh man, that’s what it’s all about. I believe that I’m in this position for a reason,” he said. “God placed me in this position for a reason. I feel like he placed me in this position to be that light, so guys can know that it’s possible. It can happen. It’s not something that’s impossible; you just have to continue to work and continue to put God first and do all of the things you’re supposed to do: be a respectful citizen, be a respectful student, be a respectful son, daughter. Great things happen to great people. I always believed that and feel like you always get the energy that you put out – you get it back. So, I think if you live by that type of code, you’ll be fine.”
Turning his words into actions, White has consistently shown that he’s someone kids in Shreveport and around the globe can look up to. Utilizing his platform to make positive change, White has held free football camps in Louisiana, provided sneakers to athletes in need and given out gifts during the holidays.
A hero to many, White had another surprise for the community up his sleeve during the ceremony. As announced by Green Oaks Principal, Steve Grant, the Bills’ defender will be donating $10,000 to the school’s football program. The generous gift is, in White’s eyes, the least he can do for a city that helped shape him into the man that he is today.
Hopeful that his story will motivate youth to follow in his footsteps and remain focused on their goals, White shared a heartfelt and encouraging message.
“There’s a lot that I can say in a short period of time, but just keep dreaming. Don’t ever give up on your dreams. Don’t ever stop trying. Don’t ever stop working hard. Don’t ever stop believing in yourself, believing in the process because if success was easy, everybody would have it. There’s going to be a lot of trials and tribulations, but when you get through those things, it’s going to make your journey to success so much more beautiful…”
When reviewing White’s achievements, it’s hard to believe that he’s only 25 years old. With a bright future ahead, he’s staying true to himself and setting his sights on what’s most important to him – helping others.
“…What I can say is that I’m blessed to even be in a position for that to happen for myself and my family,” said White when asked about what a contract extension would mean to him. “Whenever it does happen, I don’t know what I’m going to do. I don’t know how I’m going to feel, but what I do know is that I have two young kids, two sons. Their life is going to be nowhere near as tough as mine. Their education is going to be paid for. Everything that they need in life to succeed, they’re going to have. They’re not going to have to go through the things that I had to go through to get it. So, that’s the part that I’ll be most proud of myself for. To be able to set up not only myself, but my family, and be able to give back in the ways that I really want to at this moment.”
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NEW ENGLAND
No more PUP for WR MOHAMMAD SANU. Chris Mason of MassLive.com:
Mohamed Sanu’s stint on the PUP list was a brief one.
According to ESPN’s Field Yates, Sanu passed his physical Tuesday and was activated. The team placed him on the Physically Unable to Perform list on Sunday afternoon.
Sanu sprained his ankle so badly last November that it needed offseason surgery — and is reportedly highly motivated to make a better second impression than first in New England.
In an interview with ESPN’s Mike Reiss, Sanu’s trainer Hilton Alexander said the 30-year-old is “faster than he’s ever been” and that “he is training like he has something to prove, like this is Year 1 in this league and he has to make his name known.”
In the final six games of the season, a hobbled Sanu never caught more than three passes. He was a non-factor in New England’s wild card loss to the Titans, hauling in one grab for 11 yards. The veteran simply wasn’t the upgrade the Patriots thought they were getting.
That’s fueling him now.
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Can QB CAM NEWTON take Bill Belichick’s style of coaching? A former player for both Carolina and New England has his doubts. John Breech of CBSSports.com:
Cam Newton has been in the NFL since 2011 and in the nine years since then, he’s only played for one head coach, Ron Rivera, who was on the sideline for every single one of the 124 starts that Newton made in Carolina. During his time with Rivera and the Panthers, Newton was reportedly coddled by the team and put in a position where he never really faced any criticism after a bad game. However, that definitely won’t be the case in New England, where Bill Belichick expects everyone to “do your job,” and if you don’t do your job, then Belichick will let you know.
According to Kyle Love, that dynamic could be the one thing that creates a problem for Cam in New England this year. Love has played for both the Patriots (2010-12) and the Panthers (2014-19), so he knows what kind of environmental change Newton will be facing, and he’s not so sure Cam is going to be able to handle it.
“This is just my opinion, but I don’t feel like Cam can take the pressure of coaches talking down about his play,” Love told the Boston Herald. “If he had a bad game in Carolina, the coaching staff wouldn’t say much to him because they may have felt he could be a little frail about it or maybe pout. They never really corrected to the point Bill used to correct Tom.”
If Newton has a bad game in New England, there’s basically a 100% chance that Belichick is going to let him know.
“Bill’s going to be Bill, and he’s going to let Cam know how he feels no matter what,” Love said. “Everybody is treated equal, and I actually love that about Bill because that let the whole team know you’re going to be held accountable.”
When Love says “everybody” is treated equally in New England, that includes Tom Brady, who definitely got chewed out plenty of times during his 20 years with the Patriots. It’s not often that a head coach will criticize a quarterback in front of the entire team, but Belichick has no issues doing that.
Brady was once asked how he felt about getting yelled at in front of the team, and he said it didn’t bother him.
“I understand, that comes with him,” Brady said in February 2017. “All the times he does that to me, they’re very much deserved. He’s trying to get me to reach a high level as a player. I don’t take it personal. You always want to prove your coach wrong when he criticizes you, so I think that’s a good motivator to go back out on the field and try and get to a higher level.”
If Newton can adjust to the idea of being criticized, then he should be fine, but there’s no guarantee that’s going to happen.
“New England is not for everybody,” Love said. “Every player does not fit will there physically or mentally.”
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THIS AND THAT
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FANTASY FOOTBALL ADVICE
Undeterred by Wuhan Covid-19, fantasy football drafts are already underway. Eric Karabell of ESPN.com offers advice on players who you should let someone else draft:
Tight end Rob Gronkowski, a future Hall of Famer, used to find his way onto this annual fantasy football “Do Not Draft” list because fantasy managers were a bit too eager to secure him to their teams, thinking that having the best player at a position meant everything. It surely did not. Indeed, Gronkowski used to be a fantastic, genuine talent, finishing as the No. 1 fantasy option at tight end four times, a truly dominant force when his body cooperated, handling a large target share, scoring myriad touchdowns and contributing to Super Bowl titles.
Things are hardly the same now. Gronkowski, now 31, was an ordinary, inefficient performer on the field in 2018, his body battered from years of heavy workloads and physical play — and it’s doubtful he simply sat on his couch, recuperating his body during his year off in 2019. Hey, it’s quite a story as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reunite this talent with their new quarterback, Tom Brady, aiming to rekindle a successful Patriots partnership from the past, but fantasy managers have to see through this.
Gronkowski as a later-round choice, someone fantasy managers hope to catch the proverbial lightning in a bottle with, makes reasonable sense to me. However, that is not happening! He is going as a sixth-round choice in ESPN average live drafts, at this stage of his career and in this offense. And to that I say, good luck with that!
The truth rarely lies, so as we venture into the latest “Do Not Draft” list, we lead yet again with our ol’ friend Gronkowski and try in vain to remind people we are not saying you should never draft these players, but that you should not draft them where the cost demands it. Look at ESPN ADP. Even back in the glory days, Gronkowski’s value rarely seemed quite commensurate with his actual fantasy production, but even at some discount from his prime days, this remains the case today.
In a football sense, Gronkowski is neither young nor durable. He missed half of two of his previous six seasons, and quite a few other games in between, including three in his final season in New England. By Week 3, fantasy investors might not even get proper clarity on his updated health status before that Sunday morning on whether he is suiting up. Rostering Gronkowski in fantasy, in the latter seasons, meant using valuable bench space on another tight end on your roster, and that is surely the case in 2020. The Buccaneers want Gronkowski mostly for January’s playoffs.
Meanwhile, never during Brady’s tenure did his most electrifying target have to battle a wide receiver duo like Chris Godwin and Mike Evans for targets. I believe Brady will be statistically excellent this season, and I like his value. Gronkowski used to boast a healthy target share, one this Tampa Bay offense simply cannot and should not regenerate. Why would it? They have the best wide receiver tandem, and oh, by the way, other tight ends (O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate) and running backs who catch passes, too.
As a result, sans the targets and the likelihood of a full campaign of games, Gronkowski seems unlikely to both provide TE1 numbers on a rate and volume basis. Gloss over the fact coach Bruce Arians has never featured tight ends in an offense and sure struggled to do so last season, but the weaponry at Brady’s disposal is vast, so he does not need to. As it was, the Buccaneers were not among the top 10 in wide receiver targets with a quarterback who threw the ball so much, it was as if this was his ultimate goal. Brady is not going to throw as much as Jameis Winston, to his teammates or the opponent.
Ultimately, securing Gronkowski as your starting tight end is a risk, but the main issue is one needs to secure him in the first 10 rounds. Thanks to name value and dreams of another 1,000-yard season with double-digit touchdowns, he is somehow going ahead of Evan Engram, Tyler Higbee and Hunter Henry, each younger, faster and, well, I will leave out the part about durability here to protect myself. Still, Gronk is well outside my top 10 tight ends for good reasons, so use your sixth- or seventh-round selections on safer flex choices.
Here is a starting fantasy roster of others who, for various reasons, deserve placement on this analyst’s “Do Not Draft” list:
Quarterback
Rushing certainly matters when it comes to quarterbacks, but rushing touchdowns are difficult, if not impossible, to repeat. Just ask the old Cam Newton. Even with an upgrade in receiving options, Bills starter Josh Allen is an average passer at best, and someone unlikely to return top-10 quarterback value. I lean on rushing quarterbacks in later rounds, but again, that is not where Allen is going.
Other QBs to avoid: Aaron Rodgers, Packers; Ryan Tannehill, Titans; Baker Mayfield, Browns.
Running back
Start with new Falcons savior Todd Gurley coming back to Georgia and go from there. Myriad leg issues limited Gurley in his final Rams season, and arthritis in his knee will continue to hold him back. Nobody denies how great Gurley was during 2017 and 2018, and few found the end zone better than he did in 2019, but the Falcons will soon realize they must monitor his touches closely, mostly with receptions. The touchdowns should regress. He is a flex option, not a safe RB2 deserving of a third-round choice.
For Baltimore’s Mark Ingram, volume is likely to be a similar problem. He is older than Gurley and healthier, but fantasy managers run into problems when they assume touchdown totals carry over from year to year. Ingram scored 15 touchdowns last season. How awesome! Efficiency will surely drop from this remarkable level, he is not a pass-catcher and the team drafted his replacement. But other than those things, all is well. There are starters and rookies going later with far greater upside, even in Round 7.
With new Texans starter David Johnson, I guess I simply do not see what others do. Sure, this is someone with little competition for touches, but Johnson was so subpar last season in Arizona, struggling to stay healthy, indecisive on rushing attempts and in the open field and unable to break tackles. He is four seasons from his greatness, and rare is the running back who returns to prior levels of awesomeness. Really, that was 2016! Move on! I think David Johnson and the unrelated but similar Duke Johnson share the receptions and nobody in this backfield runs the football with effectiveness. Good luck, Deshaun Watson.
Other RBs to avoid: Le’Veon Bell, Jets; Ronald Jones, Buccaneers; Derrius Guice, Washington; Phillip Lindsay, Broncos; Sony Michel, Patriots.
Wide receiver
I actually like the value for most of the generally accepted top 25 or so wide receivers in fantasy this season. The position is so deep and, well, there are enough proven players for all. Still, in the middle rounds, there are issues. Not to pick on the Buffalo passing game, but Stefon Diggs in Round 7, when fantasy managers might still be acquiring expected starters, is a problem. This is not all about Josh Allen, and Buffalo actually threw more than Minnesota did last season, but there is no statistical ceiling here. Diggs was barely a WR3 in an efficient offense last season, and John Brown is the deep threat for Diggs’ new team.
Durability is the main reason the once-electric A.J. Green makes the list, because he not only missed all the games last season, but he missed six or more games in two of the three prior ones. I like the new Cincinnati offense and star rookie quarterback Joe Burrow, but how can we presume Green’s ankle injuries are no longer a problem as he turns 32? There is upside for the games he plays, but like others on this list, name value hardly jibes with the reality, and Round 7 has better choices. Give me all the shares of his teammate Tyler Boyd.
Deebo Samuel had a nice if inconsistent rookie season, and I see good things for his future, but the problem in 2020 is he had surgery for a Jones fracture in his left foot in June. The 49ers seem resigned to the fact he will not be ready for Week 1 of the regular season, and that alone is telling. Be realistic! This is a significant foot injury. Samuel as a 10th-round selection in ESPN ADP is not awful, because it is the second half of the draft and the time to take risks, but fantasy managers are rarely patient in waiting for players when they need bench spots.
Other WRs to avoid: Will Fuller, Texans; Sterling Shepard, Giants; Sammy Watkins, Chiefs; Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson, Eagles; Antonio Brown, free agent.
Tight end
Gronkowski seems like plenty for this position, but let us throw in Jared Cook of the Saints as well. Yes, he was a top-10 tight end last season, but only because of the nine touchdown catches and, well, that seems unlikely to continue since he had nine in the previous four seasons combined. Fantasy managers should target volume receivers, not the ones who “score touchdowns” as if that is some special, teachable and repeatable skill. At 33, Cook, who caught only 43 passes, might hold off rookie Adam Trautman for the entire season, but the Dayton product has size, speed and athleticism, so Cook might not.
Meanwhile, Mike Clay, also of ESPN.com, has some breakout candidates:
“Who is this year’s ____________ (enter fantasy football breakout player from last season)?”
It’s one of the questions I get asked most often during the offseason.
It’s not a simple question to answer, because no two scenarios are exactly alike. But there are obviously comparable players in similar situations. And, if the people want comparisons, comparisons they shall receive.
The process here was simple: I jotted down each of 2019’s top breakout players and came up with a short list of players who fit a similar situation as they enter 2020. Below is analysis of each player who best fits the bill, as well as the other players who landed on the short list.
Note that this is not my way of predicting that these players will definitely break out this season. Again, it’s simply the players positioned to do so as a product of landing in a similar situation to those players who exploded onto the fantasy scene last season.
This season’s Lamar Jackson: Kyler Murray
Jackson emerged into a fantasy star in his second NFL season.
Over the past two seasons, we’ve seen both Patrick Mahomes and Jackson explode into league MVPs and the top-scoring fantasy QB in their second NFL season. So, the question is, who will follow in their footsteps in 2020? The good news is that it’s not hard to identify the most likely candidate: 2019 first overall pick Murray, a man who, powered by a 93-544-4 rushing line, finished as fantasy’s QB8 during an impressive rookie campaign and added DeAndre Hopkins to his arsenal during the offseason. The bad news is that, unlike Jackson and Mahomes, Murray will cost you a midround pick, as opposed to the late-round lottery ticket cost of Mahomes and Jackson. Of course, Murray’s upside is enormous, so he’s worth the investment.
Other candidates: Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Gardner Minshew II, Dwayne Haskins Jr.
This season’s Kyler Murray: None
Murray was a rookie quarterback who quickly joined the QB1 discussion.
Consider: There have been only five top-10 and seven top-14 finishes by rookie quarterbacks during the past decade and all did damage with their legs (including four-plus rushing touchdowns for each). The fewest rushing yards from that group of seven was 213 by Jameis Winston, but he required a total of 28 touchdowns and 4,042 passing yards to salvage a 13th-place finish in fantasy points. First overall pick Joe Burrow is the only rookie QB expected to start Week 1, and while he can add some value with his legs (368 rushing yards and five TDs at LSU last season), he’s expected to do most of his damage from the pocket in the pros. It’s unlikely that he or any of his rookie counterparts will work his way into the weekly QB1 discussion this season.
Long-shot candidates: Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert
This season’s Ryan Tannehill: Cam Newton
Tannehill was a veteran backup QB promoted to starter during the season who emerged as a fantasy starter.
It’s very possible Newton will win the Patriots’ starting gig in time for Week 1, but we shouldn’t be surprised if second-year man Jarrett Stidham gets the first look. In that scenario, there’s a reasonable chance Newton will be promoted to starter at some point during the season, which would certainly launch him into the QB1 discussion. Newton wasn’t himself in his two 2019 starts, but he had one of his most efficient passing seasons in 2018 while finishing in the top eight in fantasy points per game for the seventh time in eight NFL seasons.
Other candidates: Marcus Mariota, Alex Smith, Case Keenum
This season’s Aaron Jones/Austin Ekeler: Kenyan Drake
Jones and Ekeler were explosive, young RBs who converted a big volume boost into an RB1 campaign.
Drake is entering his fifth NFL season, so Arizona’s transition tag recipient is a bit older than Jones and Ekeler were when “freed,” but his situation is otherwise similar. Drake is averaging an impressive 4.8 yards per carry on 456 career attempts, but he has yet to eclipse 170 carries in a single season. We already saw a glimpse of what to expect from Drake in this offense in the second half of last season when he averaged 15.4 carries and 4.4 targets per game en route to top-five fantasy production. We should expect something similar for the 26-year-old during the full 2020 campaign.
This season’s Leonard Fournette: David Montgomery
Fournette was a post-hype RB who, despite inefficiencies, turned massive volume into a breakout season.
Regardless of how high you are on Montgomery’s talent, there’s no doubting that the second-year back has an extremely clear path to a massive share of his team’s carries. Montgomery, who ranked 12th among all backs in touches but was 24th in fantasy points as a rookie, will defer to Tarik Cohen on passing downs, but that’s basically it, with Ryan Nall next up on the depth chart. It’s possible Montgomery clears 300 touches this season.
Other candidates: Derrius Guice, Ronald Jones II
This season’s Josh Jacobs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Jacobs was a first-round pick who emerged as an immediate fantasy starter as a rookie.
From 2012 to 2019, 12 running backs were drafted in the first round and seven of them finished in the top 10 in fantasy points as a rookie. Nine finished in the top 20 in touches. Edwards-Helaire was the only back selected in the first round of the 2020 draft, and the LSU product will step into arguably the league’s best offense in Kansas City. Edwards-Helaire figures to be the clear lead back and a weekly must-start in fantasy, especially now that Damien Williams opted out of the 2020 season.
Other candidate: Cam Akers
This season’s Miles Sanders/Devin Singletary: D’Andre Swift or Ke’Shawn Vaughn
Sanders and Singletary were rookie RBs who started slow but eventually emerged as fantasy starters.
There are quite a few Day 2/3 running backs who could fit this description, but Swift and Vaughn stand out as the best candidates. Whereas Sanders was competing with Jordan Howard and Singletary with Frank Gore, Swift will need to overcome Kerryon Johnson in Detroit and Vaughn will need to clear Ronald Jones II at Tampa Bay. Both backs could potentially leap into 15-plus touches per game, which would position them in the RB2 mix.
Other candidates: J.K. Dobbins, Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss, Antonio Gibson, Joshua Kelley
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ANTONIO
Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com with five teams that he thinks are candidates to take on the challenges of WR ANTONIO BROWN after his eight-game suspension ends.
After a litany of off-field issues, it’s unclear if Antonio Brown will ever play in the NFL again, and even if he does, he’s already guaranteed to miss at least half of the 2020 season. Now that the former superstar wide receiver has officially been suspended, however, Brown could be one step closer to resuming his career, if only because teams are finally aware of his discipline.
Does that mean a team should sign him? Brown’s roller-coaster journey of the last year or so, which included essentially forcing his way out of three different organizations, suggests the risk might be greater than the reward at this point. And yet Brown, who just turned 32, still appears in tip-top shape with a Hall of Fame-caliber resume under his belt.
With that in mind, here’s a stab at the five most likely landing spots for Antonio Brown in 2020:
5. Tennessee Titans
GM Jon Robinson has been flirting with a big name all offseason, so why not this one? The Titans are a tightly run organization under Mike Vrabel — a no-nonsense team both on and off the field — but that could make them especially equipped to import and handle someone like Brown. Second-year pro A.J. Brown looks like a star in the making, but then it’s Adam Humphries and an injured Corey Davis at WR, with the pressure on Ryan Tannehill to replicate his 2019 breakout. There’s also the fact the Titans were very interested in trading for Brown just a year ago. Things have changed, yes, but so have Tennessee’s title hopes.
4. Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson, the NFL’s reigning MVP, says he loves Brown and wants to play with him. Brown’s cousin Marquise just happens to be on the roster at the same position. And the Ravens could use a veteran addition to a WR group and offense that figures to be squarely in Super Bowl contention. Does this franchise want another potential PR hit by bringing Brown’s baggage into an otherwise up-and-coming locker room, though? Then again, perhaps they’ll ultimately believe Lamar Jackson’s star power is enough to overshadow and/or reel Brown in. Just imagine unleashing a motivated AB against the Steelers late in the season.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coach Bruce Arians has been pretty clear: He wants no part of Brown in his locker room. Considering he also has a history with the WR from his days in Pittsburgh, that would seem to be the end of the discussion. But can we really underestimate Tom Brady’s sway here? The way this Buccaneers team has been assembled, No. 12 has essentially been crowned junior GM. He already coaxed the club to trade for Rob Gronkowski — a colorful character, if there is one — and could still use a true No. 3 WR. He apparently also loved AB during their brief time together in New England. If Arians is all in on this win-now operation, it makes sense.
2. Green Bay Packers
The Packers aren’t usually one for splashy, let alone controversial moves, but they have a major WR need after leaving the position largely unaddressed this offseason. Now that low-risk addition Devin Funchess has opted out for the 2020 season, they’re in even more trouble, unless they actually believe guys like Jace Sternberger and Equanimeous St. Brown are about to explode overnight. Better yet: They’ve spent the last few months trying to convince Aaron Rodgers they still believe in him. Actions speak louder than words, and there’d arguably be no greater action than giving him Brown — a bona fide play-maker — for this year’s stretch run.
1. Seattle Seahawks
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and let’s just say the Seahawks have been smoky. They’ve been actively searching for WR help to pair with Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, they’ve got a history of taking chances on troubled veterans, but most of all, they’ve been as close to outright campaigning for Brown’s arrival as anyone. Russell Wilson has reportedly been pining for AB behind closed doors for months and worked out with the WR this summer. Wilson’s backup, Geno Smith, is good friends with Brown and has been advocating for his return on social media. Coach Pete Carroll, meanwhile, has repeatedly left the door open for a move down the road.
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