| QB TIERSMike Sando of The Athletic hits with his 12th edition of QB Tiers – placing the NFL’s starting QBs in five tiers after a poll of an anonymous panel of NFL insiders. The 2026 QB Tiers results are complete with commentary from the panel of 50 voters, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share candid evaluations. The panel this year consisted of eight general managers, five assistant GMs, five former GMs and three other executives, plus nine head coaches, 10 defensive coordinators, five offensive coordinators, two offensive assistants, one defensive assistant and two coaches specializing in analytics/game management. That’s 21 execs and 29 coaches overall. Each voter placed 35 veteran quarterbacks into five tiers, from best (Tier 1) to worst (Tier 5). Quarterbacks were then ranked by average vote and placed into tiers. The survey excludes rookies because voters have not seen them play in the NFL. Quarterback Tiers results for 2026 are here, and there’s clarity at the top, with four overwhelming Tier 1 selections and nobody else coming close. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow commanded 191 of a possible 200 top-tier votes from the panel of 50 coaches and executives. Lamar Jackson dropped into Tier 2 with a dozen others, including upstarts Drake Maye and Caleb Williams, making this the largest second tier in the 13-year history of the survey. Moved up a tierDrake MayeCaleb WilliamsSam DarnoldTrevor LawrenceDaniel Jones Moved down a tierLamar JacksonC.J. StroudGeno SmithDeshaun Watson (Watson did not play in 2025; he was rated as a Tier 3 quarterback in 2024) New to ‘Tiers’Jaxson DartCam WardTyler ShoughMalik WillisShedeur Sanders While the Seattle Seahawks’ latest Super Bowl-winning quarterback, Sam Darnold, climbed into that expansive Tier 2, the team’s previous one, Russell Wilson, dropped from the survey altogether. That left Stafford and Aaron Rodgers as the only players to appear in every QB Tiers since the survey’s 2014 inception. Tier 1Carries his team each weekThe team wins because of himExpertly handles pure-passing situationsHas no real holes in his game 1. Patrick Mahomes Chiefs “I still think he’s a 1, but this year will show.” — Defensive coach Mahomes sits alone in the top spot, but for the first time since 2022, one of the voters, a GM, placed him in the second tier. “I know no one sees this list, but no one wants to be the one that takes the 1 off,” a defensive coordinator said. “He has earned that.” Almost no one wants to take off the 1. Mahomes turns 31 in September. His scramble rate climbed to a career-high 9 percent last season, an indication he was doing more with his legs to prop up an offense short on dynamic receiving threats. Is that sustainable with Mahomes coming off a torn ACL? “Pat had no run game last year — none,” another exec said. “He’s in a really bad spot when he doesn’t have any run game. On top of that, they were missing Rashee Rice for the first six games. Once Rashee came back, Pat was actually pretty darn good, and then the wheels fell off against Houston and he got hurt.” The exec paused. “I’ll bet he gets some 2 votes this year,” he added. Not some. Just one, equaling the total he received from 2019 to 2025. “He’s not carrying them every week anymore,” the GM placing Mahomes in Tier 2 said. “They had the season (2024) when they were historically, you could say, lucky in the one-possession games and then got trounced in the Super Bowl. They were not as impressive in the one-possession games (in 2025). Now, he’s coming off an injury. Is he gonna deteriorate physically?” Mahomes is already back on the field for Chiefs training camp. One veteran coach laughed off suggestions Mahomes was in decline, noting that Joe Montana faced similar questions after three successive one-and-done playoff exits in the 1980s. Montana then won two MVPs and two Super Bowls over the next three seasons. “I don’t think he is going to look any different than what he was mobility-wise,” an offensive coordinator said. “He has never been the fastest. He just has unbelievable core strength and quickness and agility and vision and feel to create. I wouldn’t expect drop-off there.” Kenneth Walker III’s addition in free agency could restore the ground game for Mahomes. “I still think he’s a 1, but this year will show,” a defensive coach said. “You watch him warm up — his legs are strong, but he’s got a belly. He’s not pretty like Josh Allen. His upper body is kind of just there. If his legs go, he might fall off quicker than other people think. What I’m saying is, getting in the best possible shape could be important for him over the second half of his career.” 2 (tie). Josh Allen, BillsVoting average 1.04 Improved by 0.02 (1.06) 48 Tier 1, 2 Tier 2“He is the reason they remain competitive. He’s so physically talented.” — GM Allen moved one vote closer toward unanimous Tier 1 status and could be the most feared quarterback in the league. “Josh Allen is unreal,” a defensive coordinator said. “He and Stafford are the two guys I would not want to play the most. Allen’s ability to make plays, be hard to tackle, put the team on his shoulders — when it’s fourth down, he is going to win.” One veteran coach said Allen still has much to learn. “Josh Allen, with under 30 seconds left in the half, runs for a meaningless 12-yard gain and fumbles and gives up a field goal in a playoff game to go behind two scores against Denver,” this coach said. “Until he quits doing that, you can’t rank him as the top quarterback. That is one of the worst plays I’ve ever seen. Cost them the game.” Others saw the positives. “The thing that jumped out to me about the playoffs last year was the physicality and the plays the quarterbacks make with their toughness, their size and their strength, particularly as they advance on,” an exec said. “Josh has got that. Obviously, it’s TBD with (new coach) Joe Brady, but one thing that those guys in the top tier do is, when you get off the bus on the road, the other 52 guys think they got a chance.” Allen led all quarterbacks in rushing yards (579) and rushing touchdowns (14) in 2025. “He’s the real deal because he can do it as a dropback quarterback, and they do some run game with him,” another defensive coordinator said. “The way they use him is the way Baltimore has to use Lamar (Jackson) to get the most out of him.” A GM noted that the Bills have given Allen a strong defense and a strong run game, but not at the same time. “Josh is a 1 because he is the reason they remain competitive,” this GM said. “He’s so physically talented. But I’m ready to say he’s never gonna win a Super Bowl because their team’s getting worse around him, and I think his style of football is going to start breaking him down physically.” 2 (tie). Matthew Stafford, Rams“His football intelligence matches his football talent.” – — Former head coachVoting average 1.04 Improved by 0.46 (1.50) 48 Tier 1, 2 Tier 2 Elite physical talent plus experience plus fast processing plus top-flight scheme has equaled Tier 1 status and MVP honors for Stafford. “He wins at the line of scrimmage, and then he’s got this elite arm talent, and they’re well-schemed,” a GM said. “Everything they put on him at the line of scrimmage, he makes it come to life. Best in the league at that.” After making his Tier 1 debut by a narrow margin last year, Stafford surged into the elite ranks on the strength of his MVP season. “He’s scary,” a defensive coordinator said. “When I first got in the league, there were more guys you had to worry about. You knew if you played Peyton (Manning), you played (Brett) Favre, (Tom) Brady, (Drew) Brees, it was, ‘Oh my God!’ Stafford has still got that, and he’s operating in a difficult-to-defend offense.” Stafford’s 46 touchdown passes last season were 12 more than any other QB’s total. “His arm talent is special, for sure, but he’s a very intelligent quarterback in terms of picking up things and understanding how to attack what you do on defense,” a former head coach said. “That is not always the case with talented guys. His football intelligence matches his football talent.” Stafford’s age (38) and durability were the only strikes against him among voters. “He runs the show, and there are only a few quarterbacks left who can do that,” another defensive coach said. “He can rip it from any arm angle. His look-off throws are a freak show. If you cut up all his throws where he looks somewhere and rips it to the other side, it’s nuts.” 4. Joe Burrow, Bengals“He’s so talented at throwing the ball, and he sees it so well.” — Offensive coachVoting average 1.08 Declined by 0.08 (1.00) 46 Tier 1, 4 Tier 2 Missing nine games to injury last season wasn’t enough to knock Burrow from the Tier 1 ranks. “Stafford, Allen, Burrow and Mahomes are all different, but at the end of the day, they can single-handedly win games,” a defensive coordinator said. Burrow has had a harder time winning over the past three seasons because the Bengals have ranked 29th in defensive EPA per play over that span. “He’s so talented at throwing the ball, and he sees it so well,” an offensive coach said. “Everyone would want to have him, 10 times out of 10, no matter how much money he asked for.” Burrow is 10-5 over the past three seasons when his team scores 30 or more points. That win rate (.667) ranks last among 14 quarterbacks with at least 10 such starts over that span. The other 13 QBs are 199-23-2 (.893) in those starts. “I’m going to say 2 even though I want to say 1,” a former GM said. “I love the accuracy and anticipation. It’s just that he has been a little up and down due to injuries.” Though the Bengals’ offensive line is a key variable in the durability equation, voters also think Cincinnati takes risks with its franchise QB. “As much as I respect the head coach (Zac Taylor) as a play caller, and I like him a lot, it is insane how they do not protect (Burrow),” one voter said. “It’s third-and-10 from the plus-45. They are playing Cleveland. That situation, you are trying to get in range of the field goal. They come out with open edges. They are spread out. This is either a screen or the ball is coming out quick, right? They did dropback pass. Bang! What do you think happened? Sack!” Some voters said Burrow prefers it that way (not the sacks, but the wide-open offense). “They know he’s going to get hit, and they know they are going to have some issues and take some sacks, and they think the risk is worth the reward because he’s an unbelievable passer, they have unbelievable skill talent and that is how they score points and win games,” an offensive coordinator said. “They prefer he doesn’t get hurt, but I’d also argue the injuries he’s had have been weird.” Tier 2Carries his team sometimesHandles pure-passing situations in dosesOr has other dimensions that elevate him above Tier 3Has a hole or two in his game 5. Lamar Jackson, Ravens“If he doesn’t play well, they don’t win games.” Offensive coordinatorVoting average 1.56 Declined by 0.48 (1.08) 22 Tier 1, 28 Tier 2 Jackson made his Tier 1 debut last year but slipped back to the top of Tier 2 after failing to threaten defenses as much with his legs in 2025. “I’m not sure how much he wants to run and take hits anymore,” an opposing coach said. “He can’t be special without the threat of a run. I think he needs to be more active when he does run. It used to be he would go and outrun you. Now, he kind of goes, but he is not always moving with purpose.” Jackson’s rushing yards per game fell by about 50 percent year over year. So did his total of Tier 1 votes. Early in a November game at Cleveland, the Ravens called a zone-read for Jackson. Browns linebacker Carson Schwesinger strung out Jackson near the sideline, tackling him for a 1-yard loss. Baltimore called no more designed QB rushes that day. “Having gone against him a lot, when they changed OCs to (Todd) Monken from (Greg) Roman, he became a quarterback who is going to run it a little bit,” another coach said. Jackson won MVP honors with both coordinators. It wasn’t until last season that Jackson’s rate of designed rushes plummeted, reaching 7.1 percent, less than half his career average. Back and hamstring injuries surely played a role. New coordinator Declan Doyle plans to put Jackson under center more, but the team hasn’t been specific about its plans for Jackson as a runner. “The arrow is probably down,” an offensive coordinator said. “I’m just not ready to give him a 2 yet. If he doesn’t play well, they don’t win games. He has been able to carry that roster no matter what the rest of it looked like, even last year. “Now, if he stops running, I do think he drops into the 2 category. I think he can win games and be an elite quarterback without running, but I don’t think he’s a 1 without running.” Jackson still commanded 22 votes in Tier 1, one off his career high before last season. “I feel good about him,” said an offensive coach who placed Jackson in Tier 1. “He has a really good coach (Doyle) who has a lot to prove. Lamar took part in more of the offseason program. I think they will do the contract with him, and he will have a big year.” 6. Justin Herbert, Chargers“He should have had more accolades at this point.” — Defensive coordinatorVoting average 1.68 Improved by 0.12 (1.80) 19 Tier 1, 28 Tier 2, 3 Tier 3 Herbert has had either poor defense/special teams support, a weak offensive line or underwhelming weaponry throughout his Chargers career. “He’s taken so many hits where it’s impacting his reads,” a defensive coach said. “He’s playing with quick feet at times when he gets hit early, which he wasn’t doing as a younger guy. I get it. The guy has been hit every year.” Some voters are tired of hearing about it. “How long has he been in the league now?” a defensive coordinator asked. “They’ve never won a playoff game. I get it, but, like, if you’re the guy, at some point, I feel like they’ve been sniffing around enough. He should have had more accolades at this point.” Six of the eight GMs polled placed Herbert in the top tier. Only 13 of the other 42 voters had Herbert that high. Among coaches, those with offensive backgrounds liked Herbert more than coaches with defensive backgrounds did. It all points to the gap between Herbert’s obvious physical talent and his disappointing on-field results. GMs and offensive coaches would love to have him. “Losing both starting tackles last year was a huge issue,” an exec said. “It’ll be really interesting to see how he plays with the coordinator change (from Greg Roman to Mike McDaniel), a completely different energy and offensive philosophy.” With the line hurting, Herbert rushed for a career-high 498 yards last season, second to Allen among quarterbacks. “He looks exactly where he is supposed to look, he does exactly what he is supposed to do, but when it breaks down, he is big and strong enough to run your ass over,” an opposing coach said. 7. Dak Prescott, Cowboys“Could you win the whole thing with (him)? Yes. But would he be the reason?” — Ex-Cowboys assistantVoting average 1.80 Improved by 0.56 (2.36) 12 Tier 1, 36 Tier 2, 2 Tier 3 Prescott got nearly as many Tier 1 votes this year (12) as he’d gotten across nine previous QB Tiers appearances (14). He made the fifth-largest year-over-year jump in average tier vote, despite already ranking solidly in Tier 2. What changed? “The guy I might be higher on than I ever have is Dak,” said an exec who thought Prescott belonged in Tier 3 a few seasons ago. “He was so impressive last year.” Five of the 10 defensive coordinators polled placed Prescott in the top tier, as did a defensive-minded head coach. His average tier vote from defensive coaches (1.54) was much better than his average from offensive coaches (2.0). That was the second-largest gap in that direction, behind only the gap for Tua Tagovailoa. “Maybe it’s the tools around him, maybe it’s the maturity,” a defensive coordinator said of Prescott. “He carved us up. Brian (Schottenheimer) has been good for him.” Prescott missed most of the 2024 season to injury, but across 2023 and 2025, he ranks No. 1 in EPA per pass play among a dozen QBs with at least 30 starts in those seasons. “I don’t know what the hole is in Dak’s game,” a former head coach said. The two voters placing Prescott in Tier 3 found faults. “Dak is at his best when he can pick and stick, and throw outside the numbers to guys that are elite,” an offensive coach said. “While that is impressive to me, I don’t think that ever allows you to be a 2, because 2s anticipate, can throw guys open, can sit in there when the pocket is dirty and just make unbelievable plays. Dak hasn’t done that consistently. He can’t raise the level of the people around him.” Most voters see Prescott as a high-end 2. “He runs the show, he operates really well,” an offensive coordinator said. “There is just something that doesn’t lump you in with Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, but he’s right there. He is fun to watch play quarterback if you appreciate the scheme, how he masters the cadence. He does all those little things that are cool to watch.” Another coach called Prescott “the cockroach of the NFL” for his ability to keep playing at a high level no matter what. “He’s really good, he’s a good leader, everybody loves him,” a former Cowboys assistant said. “He’s going to make most throws. Could you win the whole thing with Dak Prescott? Yes. But would he be the reason? He’s going to help.” Dallas ranked last by a wide margin in defensive EPA per play last season. The Cowboys were fifth on the offensive side, finishing 7-9-1. “He’s a 2 until he can do it when it matters,” another defensive coordinator said. “If he was out there (on the market), everybody would want him, but can he get you over the hump? He will have a great season, they will be really good offensively, then they will get to the playoffs, and he will s— the bed. It’s been consistent over his career.” 8 (tie), Drake Maye, Patriots“A high 2 on his way to a 1.” – — Personnel execRank #8 (tie) Improved by 14 (#22)Voting average 2.06 Improved by 1.06 (3.12) 5 Tier 1, 37 Tier 2, 8 Tier 3 Finishing second in MVP voting for a team that reached the Super Bowl pushed Maye from the middle of Tier 3 after his rookie season toward the top of Tier 2. “I see him as a high 2 on his way to a 1,” an exec said. “You just have to see it against a harder schedule. And then I think he did get hurt in the AFC Championship Game, he was playing hurt in the Super Bowl. But to me, he’d be right at that Tier 1 border.” Five of the 21 personnel executives polled placed Maye in Tier 1. None of the 29 coaches did. The gap between Maye’s average vote from personnel execs to coaches was the largest in that direction this year. “The kid throws a really good go-ball, which will pair well with A.J. Brown,” said a defensive coach whose team faced Maye early in the season. “Maybe it’s his youth, but I think Josh McDaniels does a phenomenal job of packaging things within a game plan to take some of the pressure off of Drake. He can do what they want him to do offensively, but at the same time, how much are they really asking him to do?” Maye’s elevated sack rate (8.7 percent) is one concern. “I think most good quarterbacks know how to get rid of the football,” a GM said. Voters whose teams faced Maye later in the 2025 season were higher on him than those who faced him earlier. Most thought a shoulder injury influenced a conservative game plan in the Super Bowl. “He’s going to be a 1 very soon,” a personnel exec said. “You know what? Yeah, he’s a 1. Resilient kid, makes plays, underwhelming receiving corps, smart, athletic. Another year with this coordinator, get some big-play guys, I think he’ll be a 1. His makeup and all his football stuff makes me believe he is going to be a good player.” 8 (tie). Jared Goff, Lions“When he is rolling, he’s a 1. He can change the game.” – — Offensive coachVoting average 2.06 No change (2.06) 4 Tier 1, 39 Tier 2 , 7 Tier 3 Goff finished with the same average tier vote (2.06) and ranking (eighth) as last year, proving he would not implode after acclaimed offensive coordinator Ben Johnson left to become coach of the Bears. “I have newfound respect for him, watching him operate without Ben,” a defensive coordinator said. “There is a ceiling to some of it, but I was like, ‘Man, even transitioning to a new offense, he is very in command of all the other stuff.’ He was tempoing us a lot. The cadence, movement, motion timing — operationally, he was very on it.” Goff is more respected than feared. “I was more nervous because of the receivers and the tailback, but he is good enough where I go, ‘OK, he can throw it,’” another defensive coordinator said. “It’s just that the pieces around him really help him.” Goff leads the NFL in touchdown passes over the past three seasons with 101. “Watching their cutups, it’s unbelievable,” an offensive coach said. “He has the tendency, as Stafford did for a long time, where there are small stretches in seasons where he is not even a 2. But when he is rolling, he’s a 1. He can change the game.” Voters suggested the Lions’ window could be closing. “The infrastructure has a lot to do with it, and I actually don’t necessarily mean that negatively,” a GM said. “Low-end 2, high-end 3, can win with him and everything like that, but I think probably the last two years, ’24 and ’23, I think he got a little bit overvalued, getting a little too much credit.” 10. Jordan Love, Packers“He’s always getting away with (it), so at some point, I just have to tip my cap.” – Offensive coachVoting average 2.18 Improved by 0.26 (2.44) 2 Tier 1, 37 Tier 2, 11 Tier 3 Love has climbed in QB Tiers every season, cracking the top 10 for the first time. “He’s good — I was surprised,” an opposing defensive coordinator said. “Really solid, mobile, threw with better accuracy than I thought. I’d give him a 2.” Love ranked second to Maye in EPA per pass play last season. “Smart, can do things at the line, has the arm talent, the mobility when he needs it, but knows how to sit in and deliver,” another defensive coordinator said. “Not a consistent killer yet, but if he plays good ball, you can win a Super Bowl with him.” As for that No. 2 ranking in EPA per pass play: Stafford, Brock Purdy, Goff, Prescott, Allen and Daniel Jones were next, followed by Mahomes, Mac Jones and Bo Nix. The varied composition of that list shows why statistics are only part of the equation. Systems and supporting casts matter. “There are years where I could have pushed Love up to the bottom of Tier 1, top of Tier 2,” another defensive coach said. “He needs more consistency, week-in and week-out. He has some WTF plays and throws, like, ‘Why are you doing this?’” Finding greater consistency was a recurring theme for Love. “He is still coming into his own as a player,” another defensive coordinator said. “Early on, he was trying to be Aaron Rodgers. You could tell from his mannerisms: too cool for school. I think he is starting to settle into who he really is. He has the size, the length, all the tools.” Comparisons to Rodgers and even Brett Favre were inevitable. Are they fair? “If you can create pressure on him and make him move around, it ain’t the same,” an exec placing Love in Tier 3 said. “It took Aaron Rodgers three years to learn how to manipulate the pocket. Brett just did it. The question is, can Love learn it?” The inconsistency made Love one of the tougher QBs for voters to evaluate. Improved play from the offensive line could help steady him. “I used to think Josh Allen was a 2 because he just does too much where I go, ‘OK, it’s not by the book, it doesn’t always look the way it is supposed to, but God, is it productive,’” an offensive coach said. “Jordan Love is the Tier 2 version of that. He is at times careless and overly aggressive. It looks like it shouldn’t be working, and he’s getting away with things. “But he’s always getting away with them, so at some point, I just have to tip my cap and be impressed.” 11 (tie). Brock Purdy 49ers“Stronger than you think. Faster than you think. Better than you think.” – Defensive coachVoting average 2.28 Improved by 0.18 (2.46) 1 Tier 1, 34 Tier 2, 15 Tier 3 Purdy regained all the ground lost after his 2024 season, and then some, among voters. His average tier vote (2.28) and ranking (T-11th) are career bests. “I think he is better than given credit for,” a head coach said. “Kyle (Shanahan) is great, but I think Brock Purdy, he can see it so fast, and he makes quick decisions, and he’s more athletic than you think. Really good player.” The 49ers rank third in offensive EPA per play since 2023, Purdy’s first full season as their starter. Purdy is No. 1 in EPA per pass play over that span. “Purdy is so impressive to watch in terms of how he creates,” an offensive coordinator said. “The scramble game is awesome. He’s really hard to sack. He’s in a great system with great players around him. It’s just a good fit.” It’s tough finding voters who don’t mention Shanahan’s system when discussing Purdy. “Solid 2,” an exec said. “Deceptive athletically, deceptive strength. He is the one guy who plays bigger than he is, and then obviously he’s a good fit with Kyle.” There’s that system talk again. “Just because of what he has done, you have to give him a 2, but he’s like bottom-end Tier 2,” a defensive coach said. “It is the system and everything around it that is going to help him. In that system, Jimmy Garoppolo took them to the Super Bowl, but when he went anywhere else, you struggled to say he was a 3.” Yet, all agree Purdy surpassed Garoppolo long ago. “If he can’t flip his hips, he can’t make throws, because all his power is in his lower body,” another defensive coach said. “But the dude is special. He sees things before they happen. And like (George) Kittle said, he runs like a water dragon. Stronger than you think. Faster than you think. Better than you think. Talks more s— than you think. Solid 2.” 11 (tie). Caleb Williams Bears“It doesn’t look like the moment is too big for him.” — Defensive coordinatorVoting average 2.28 Improved by 0.92 (3.20) 36 Tier 2, 14 Tier 3 Only Daniel Jones and Maye improved their year-over-year standing more than Williams, who overtook Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix to rank second among quarterbacks from the 2024 draft class (only Maye remains higher). “I’ve got all these cutups on him, and I’m going, ‘This guy is special,’” a head coach said. “He makes unbelievable throws, and he’s fearless.” Every player ranked higher than Williams this year commanded at least one Tier 1 vote. Williams had none. Some think that will change. “I think Caleb’s going from a 2 to a possible 1,” an exec said. “A couple of plays he made late in the year and then in the playoffs, not many people can make those plays. You saw it get better and better as they progressed.” Williams took a league-high 68 sacks as a rookie in 2024. That total plummeted to 24 last season, even though Williams held the ball a league-high 3.09 seconds on average before throwing or taking sacks, per TruMedia. That was up from 2.84 seconds as a rookie. “Chicago probably holds the ball longer than most teams just with the stuff they do,” an offensive coach said. “Then you add on Caleb’s escapability. He gets out of so many that should be sacks for 90 percent of the league.” Inconsistency is typically a byproduct of the off-schedule quarterback. That might always be the trade-off for Williams. “There are games where you are like, ‘Oh my God, that’s not good,’ and then there is the Rams game in the playoffs last year where it’s, ‘Jesus, God, he kept them alive.’ Then he tries to trademark ‘Iceman,’ and you’re thinking, ‘Get outta here.’” Execs generally liked Williams more than coaches did. All eight GMs placed him in Tier 2, while coaches supplied 11 of his 14 votes in Tier 3. That is likely because coaches are more apt to want quarterbacks to play on time. “He is a high 3 or low 2 with the ability to go either way, kind of like Josh Allen at (the same) point in his career,” a defensive coordinator said. “He is an exciting player, definitely athletic. The good thing for him, just like Lamar (Jackson) and Josh (Allen) at this stage: It doesn’t look like the moment is too big for him.” 13. Jayden Daniels, Commanders“He’s got to reprove it.” — Defensive coachVoting average 2.32 Declined by 0.60 (1.72) 32 Tier 2, 17 Tier 3 Daniels proved as a rookie he can be one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the game. His second season amplified durability questions that followed him into the league. “He’s got to reprove it,” a defensive coach said. Daniels missed 10 games to injury in his second season and wasn’t nearly as dynamic while Washington posted a 2-5 record in the games he did start. “I think he is a legitimate ascending 2 assuming (his health) is right,” an offensive coach said. Daniels suffered the third-largest year-over-year drop after Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa. “I think he was a little quick to take off and run last year,” an exec said. “They spent a lot of money on that offensive line and drafted some guys, so I think he has to just settle into that position. He has all the talent.” Calibrating the dual-threat factor in a manner that threatens defenses without threatening Daniels’ physical well-being is the key. “Jayden is similar to Lamar (Jackson) in that when he can’t run, he’s a 3,” an offensive coach said. “My issue with him is he takes too many hits, and he gets away with missing plays because his feet can bail him out.” Daniels will have a new first-time coordinator in David Blough, who replaced Kliff Kingsbury. “Do they get under center, do they slow down, do they do some other things?” an exec asked. “Jayden was really, really good in terms of his authority to make plays both on and off schedule. It’s extremely difficult to defend guys who can do both, so I think they’ve got a chance for a real bounceback.” 14 (tie). Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers “The streakiest player of all time.” — Offensive coordinatorVoting average 2.36 Declined by 0.06 (2.30) 30 Tier 2, 19 Tier 3 It’s fitting for Mayfield and Sam Darnold to tie in this ranking as 2018 draft classmates and veteran success stories; Mayfield salvaged his career one year before Darnold salvaged his. This year, Mayfield basically held his ground, slipping just slightly in average vote while falling three spots. “He probably fluctuates from a 3 to a 2, with some (Tier) 1 games in there,” an exec said. “A little bit of a reckless play style, a little smaller guy. You saw some wear and tear catch up to him last season. I lean towards a 3. “This is the discussion they are having in Tampa as they ask, ‘What are we going to pay him?’” Mayfield is scheduled to become a free agent after the season. His $33.3 million average salary ranks 16th. “I don’t want to be unfair to Brock Purdy, but I feel more threatened by Baker,” a former head coach said. “I think Baker does more outside of the system. I don’t think he has been as protected in a system like Brock has, and he’s a winner, he’s got that edge to him. So does Brock. Baker is a 2 to me.” Losing receiver Mike Evans could affect Mayfield, although one voter pointed out that Mayfield shined early in his career at Cleveland without a top wideout. “He is just the streakiest player of all time,” an offensive coordinator said. “He can play like a 2 and play like a 5. He misses throws, he loses vision, but then he makes some unbelievable plays with his feet. He is one of those guys that frustrates you as a coordinator, but when things around him are pretty good, he can make impressive plays and win some games, too.” 14 (tie). Sam Darnold, Seahawks“The guy has always had the talent.” — Former GM Sam DarnoldVoting average 2.36 Improved by 0.64 (3.00) Darnold’s climb over the past three seasons is rare for an established starter in the 13-year history of QB Tiers. “Sam played his ass off the last two years,” a head coach said. Darnold’s improvement from 4.00 to 2.36 is a full tier better than runner-up Daniel Jones among the 19 quarterbacks who appeared in all three surveys and had debuted before 2024. “There are so many factors that determine a quarterback’s success, and Darnold’s the best example of it,” an exec said. “To get him into the right system, with the right coaches, and you have a game-breaking receiver, and a good defense. It’s a lot easier.” Drafted by the Jets in 2018, Darnold spent two years in Tier 3 with New York, mostly on the strength of his pedigree. He dropped into Tier 4 with Carolina and stayed there entering his first season with Minnesota. “People are too quick to quit on guys because it’s easier to quit on them than take the heat and the bullets to stay with them when you’re not winning and they are turning the ball over,” a former GM said of Darnold’s path. “The guy has always had the talent. They did not miss on the person. He was just young and had not evolved as a quarterback.” No qualifying quarterback has gotten more support from his defense and special teams than Darnold has from Minnesota and Seattle over the past two seasons (8.0 EPA per start, according to TruMedia). That’s a leading reason why he ranks first among those 33 quarterbacks in regular-season win rate with a 28-6 starting record (.824). “Sam is at his best when you run the ball, play defense and then he’s not in position to turn the ball over,” an exec said, “but when his number is called, he can make big plays. If they don’t start running the football, they probably don’t win the Super Bowl.” 16. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars“(He’ll) flash for windows where you go, ‘Oh, I think he is becoming the guy.’” — Off coordVoting average 2.44 Improved by 0.38 (2.82) 26 Tier 2, 23 Tier 3 Lawrence climbed back into Tier 2 after two years in the third tier, making him the highest-rated quarterback in the AFC South. Current GMs and offensive coaches were higher on him than the other voters. “Man, if there’s anybody that’s between a 2 and a 3, I would say him right now,” a former head coach said. “If he does it again this year, I could see putting him as a standing 2.” Will that be good enough for second-year coach Liam Coen? “Trevor took a huge jump last year,” an exec said. “I’d say he was a 2 going to a 1 at the end of the year. You saw some things that you kind of thought you saw in the draft.” Voters thought Lawrence appeared much more confident last season. “Liam is a fiery guy, and it allows that to come out of Trevor, who has never been that,” an offensive coach said. “Doug Pederson was a different style guy, so you were not going to get that out of Trevor.” It’s not the first time Lawrence has flashed promise. “He is going to flash for windows where you go, ‘Oh, I think he is becoming the guy,’ but you are not in Year 2 anymore,” an offensive coordinator said. “This is just kind of who you are — streaky, up and down. “If everyone around him does their job at a high level, he has a chance, but he is never going to be able to carry anything for extended periods of time.” 17. Jalen Hurts, Eagles “His best plays are off schedule. It will become less sustainable as he gets older.” – D coachVoting average 2.50 Declined by 0.32 (2.18) 25 Tier 2, 25 Tier 3 Hurts makes his fourth consecutive appearance in Tier 2, landing on the Tier 2-3 border after falling to his lowest average since 2022. “Philly just won it all not too long ago, but I think of all the bulls— he had to deal with,” a defensive coordinator said. “They are not on the same page, going through different coordinators, and all the s— he had to deal with regarding A.J. Brown.” Trading away Brown removed a headache. It also took away the type of target voters saw as ideally suited for Hurts. “Hurts can throw slants and go-balls,” a GM said. “Is there anybody better at running slants and go-balls than A.J. Brown?” About those go-balls … “You don’t want to count on (Hurts) to win a game unless it’s a go-ball, which is a 50-50 ball, except he’s had A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who can go catch it,” a defensive coach said. “His best plays are off schedule. It will become less sustainable as he gets older. And you can’t keep cycling through coordinators.” Sean Mannion is the Eagles’ fifth offensive coordinator in five seasons. He spent the previous two seasons as a Green Bay assistant after retiring as a quarterback. This will be his first season calling plays. “What I appreciate about Matt LaFleur was how he met Aaron Rodgers halfway when implementing a new offense (in Green Bay),” an exec said. “I’ll be curious to see if Mannion has the feel to marry what he wants to do with what Jalen does well, or do they say, ‘Jalen, you have to do this’?” Tier 3Legit starter but needs better running game or defense to winLower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best 18. Bo Nix, Broncos“Just as easily as he can win games for you, he can lose games for you.” — ExecVoting average 2.54 Improved by 0.46 (3.00) 1 Tier 1, 21 Tier 2, 28 Tier 3 Nix jumped from the middle of Tier 3, where he debuted last year, to the verge of Tier 2 after leading the league in game-winning drives with seven. “Good player, dynamic, can run a little bit,” an exec said. “He plays big in big moments. But just as easily as he can win games for you, he can lose games for you. They are as good as they are largely because their defense is as good as it is, and Sean Payton does a nice job helping him make plays within his skill set.” Nix led the league in pass attempts last season without being considered a dynamic passer. “The one thing we were worried about was his legs,” a defensive coordinator said. “There is nothing where you are like, ‘This guy is going to single-handedly put it on his shoulders and beat you.’ He manages, picks his spots, gets a scramble, makes enough plays to win.” That is a common view. “The passing game is not him operating from the pocket necessarily,” an offensive coordinator said. “There are a bunch of RPO throws, screens, bubbles and then the movement throws. It seems like they are worried about him, too, consistently winning from the pocket. “Now, he makes up for a lot of it with the way he runs.” One voter, a head coach, placed Nix in Tier 1. “I like his command, his confidence,” this coach said. “Yeah, the scheme helps him, but still, you just can’t plug anybody in there to make that scheme go.” There are some parallels between Nix and former Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. Carr jumped from a 3.11 voting average in his QB Tiers debut to 2.62 in his second appearance, ranking 16th, much the way Nix has risen. Carr then jumped to seventh (1.90) before regressing. “Nix is a 2 for sure,” a defensive coach said. “He can make all the off-balance throws. He is perfect for Sean (Payton) because he can handle Sean ripping his ass. That has always been the key; Drew (Brees) going, ‘Eff you, Sean, just call the play.’ Nix is in that mindset.” Nix, who is participating fully at training camp after having ankle surgery in January, will have a new play caller in his third season after Payton passed those duties to new offensive coordinator Davis Webb. 19. Aaron Rodgers, Steelers“Not able to make that magic like he used to.” – — Defensive coordinatorVoting average 2.66 Improved by 0.10 (2.76) 1 Tier 1, 19 Tier 2, 26 Tier 3, 4 Tier 4 Rodgers’ first season in Pittsburgh ended in the wild-card round with Houston scoring two touchdowns on Rodgers’ turnovers and sacking him four times. “He’s a 3 at best,” a defensive coordinator said. “He can still throw it. I love Aaron. He’s a tough motherf—er, but he holds the ball too long and lacks the same mobility. They come out against Buffalo, one-score game, turnover for a touchdown. He did not get rid of the ball on time. He is not able to make that magic like he used to.” Rodgers made 10 consecutive appearances in Tier 1, spent one year in Tier 2 and now is in his second season in Tier 3. Maye, Williams, Darnold, Lawrence and Nix passed him this year even though Rodgers’ average tier vote improved slightly (Rodgers passed C.J. Stroud and Kyler Murray, leaving him three spots lower in the rankings). One voter, a defensive coordinator, kept Rodgers in Tier 1, citing his intelligence and throwing ability. Another scoffed at seeing Rodgers so low. “Who would you rather have running your offense, Jalen Hurts or Aaron Rodgers?” this second voter asked rhetorically. Rodgers’ familiarity with new coach Mike McCarthy’s offense from their days together in Green Bay should help. “The offensive scheme was limiting last year,” a defensive coach said. “His mobility is not great, but as a dropback passer and one of those guys you do not want to face in two-minute, if he has pieces around him, he can still go win.” Coaches were higher on Rodgers than executives by the largest margin in that direction (0.34 average vote). All eight current GMs polled had Rodgers in Tier 3 or 4. “He’s a 3 that can go to a 2,” another defensive coach said. “He doesn’t want to get hit. He’s got a little soccer flop in him. But he can still beat you.” 20. C.J. Stroud, Texans“This is a big year for him. He has it in him.” – — Defensive coordinatorVoting average 2.74 Declined by 0.56 (2.18) 13 Tier 2, 37 Tier 3 Coaches and executives saw Stroud similarly. Thirty-seven of them placed Stroud in Tier 3, nearly triple his total over the previous two seasons combined (13). “Prior to last year, I would have thought he’s going to be on the fringe of being in that upper echelon right now,” a defensive coordinator said. “I want to say he’s a 3 based on the last couple years, but he’s a 2 if I’m being fair.” Ambivalence was a theme with Stroud. “He’s starting to fall into that category of a quarterback who’s hard to protect,” an exec said. “He doesn’t beat you at the line and get the ball out. He holds the football, and then when he holds the football, he makes mistakes.” Is that Stroud’s fault, or the fault of an offensive line constantly in flux? “They’ve signed some pro offensive linemen this offseason,” a coach said. “He plays hurried sometimes because he thinks he’s going to get rushed. Then it looks s—-y when he’s not rushed. But he thinks he is, and then people are like, ‘What is this kid doing, making bad decisions when he’s not under duress?’” This will be Stroud’s second season under offensive coordinator Nick Caley after the team fired Bobby Slowik. “Slowik got fired because their offensive line sucked, not because the quarterback really played poorly,” another coach said. “The old system is a little friendlier to quarterbacks who are not as fast processing. Last year, it looked like C.J. might be one of those guys. Hopefully it was just first year in the system, but I do wonder, do you have to make it easier for this kid so he can play fast?” Stroud has declined each season in QB Tiers. “This is a big year for him,” a defensive coordinator said. “He has it in him.” 21. Daniel Jones, Colts “Indy was perfect for him.” — Defensive coachVoting average 2.92 Improved by 1.10 (4.02) 8 Tier 2, 38 Tier 3, 4 Tier 4 Jones made the largest year-over-year jump in average vote (+1.1) while climbing eight spots in the rankings. He set career bests in yards per attempt, passer rating and EPA per pass play before suffering a torn right Achilles tendon in December. “I thought he looked broken in New York (with the Giants),” an offensive coordinator said. “I thought he looked functional in Indy. He looked like a 3.” Jones, who is practicing without limitations at training camp, received more Tier 2 votes (eight) than the rest of his career combined (six). Quite a few voters, including defensive coordinators who faced Indianapolis, credited Colts coach Shane Steichen for outstanding game plans. “Daniel Jones is interesting,” one defensive coordinator said. “I think he showed that when you are not protected and you do not have all the answers given to you, it is hard to operate at this level of football.” The implication was that Indy protected Jones, and Steichen gave him answers. “Indy was perfect for him,” another defensive coach said. “The best thing he ever could have done was get with Shane. Steichen has the best mix of tempo versus non-tempo, versus huddle calls, versus ‘Hey, listen, this one’s on two, this one’s on three.’ He tells his quarterback how to change the pace of a game, and he does it as well as anybody right now.” Jones proved he could execute that offense at a high level, although his production tapered later in the season, after defenses had more video to study. One exec thought Jones’ history of lower-body injuries could threaten his mobility longer term. “What Steichen wanted to do scheme-wise, he was not able to do with the guys he had before Daniel Jones,” said another defensive coordinator whose team faced the Colts. “From an intelligence standpoint, getting them in the right plays, going through the right key progressions, that is where Daniel Jones showed he got it.” 22. Bryce Young, Panthers“He’s a 3 who is growing on me.” – — Offensive coachVoting average 3.08 Improved by 0.34 (3.42) 5 Tier 2, 36 Tier 3, 9 Tier 4 Young has improved each year in Tiers voting since making his debut in 2024. “He made a huge jump in 2026,” said a coach whose team faced Carolina in the second half of the season. “His command, his confidence, his accuracy, the movement — he just seemed so much more confident as a player. It was an eye-opener for all of us to watch him perform. It reflected in their team.” It didn’t reflect as much in the numbers. Young ranked 28th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per pass play last season. That jumped to eighth from Week 11 forward, the second consecutive season Young finished stronger than he started. “He’s a 3 who is growing on me,” an offensive coach said. “His vision down the field allows him to throw it later in the down and create a little. He moves around just enough to get the ball out. He sees passing lanes well. He can throw with anticipation. “But he is what he is physically. He looks like a high school kid out there.” Young stands a fraction over 5 feet 10. “He needs the athletes around him, and they’ve done a good job surrounding him,” a former GM said. “He doesn’t necessarily elevate them, but he puts them in a position to be successful. His anticipation is off the charts. And he is a better runner and athlete than people give him credit for.” Young became eligible for a contract extension this offseason. Carolina picked up his $25.9 million option for 2027, but an extension does not appear imminent. “I don’t know what they will pay him, but I think they will pay him, and I can’t wait,” a rival exec said. “If they are married to that, no problem.” A defensive coordinator saw some parallels to Tua Tagovailoa. “He got better at the overall managing of the game,” an exec said. “The coach (Dave Canales) has been good for him. He has become more consistent. His talent level will never change. He will never get bigger. But I think he can play at a 3 level.” Young will have a new play caller in 2026 after Canales delegated the responsibility to offensive coordinator Brad Idzik this offseason. 23. Kyler Murray, Vikings“He will have better players around him than he ever had in Arizona.” – — Offensive coachVoting average 3.10 Declined by 0.42 (2.68) 4 Tier 2, 37 Tier 3, 9 Tier 4 This is Murray’s fourth consecutive year in Tier 3 and the first time he has fallen outside the top 17 in the rankings. But there is hope. “The person I think who will change a lot is Kyler Murray, just because he’s around a quarterback coach, he will have weapons, he probably has something to prove and his ability to escape the pocket, when he is on, is no joke,” a defensive coordinator said. Murray has never been able to dispel questions about his leadership, relatability to teammates and work habits. “I love the signing,” an offensive coach said. “He will respect the head coach (Kevin O’Connell) because he is legitimate, and he needs to shine up what people think about him. He will be on his best behavior because it’s like being in a contract year. He will have better players around him than he ever had in Arizona.” An exec suggested Murray could thrive if the Vikings continue to play good defense while putting Murray under center, giving him a solid rushing attack and featuring him in a quarterback keeper game that regulates his exposure to injury. “They were doing a good job on offense (in Arizona), but losing the line coach (Klayton Adams, who left for Dallas in 2025) was a big loss, because their run game totally changed,” an exec said. Murray is going from one of the toughest places for a quarterback to win to one of the easiest. Last season, the Vikings were the only team to finish with a winning record (9-8) while ranking outside the top 25 in offensive EPA per play. They did it on the strength of their defense and special teams, which ranks third in combined EPA over the past three seasons (Arizona ranks 31st). When Arizona started 7-0 with Murray in 2021, the Cardinals ranked second in combined EPA on defense and special teams. “How will Kevin use him?” an offensive coach said. “Kevin has never messed around with a quarterback run game. Is he willing to commit to that? Because that is what made Arizona pretty dynamic a couple years ago (No. 9 in offensive EPA per play in 2024).” Another question: How does Murray’s skill set fit the receivers in Minnesota? One offensive coach said Murray has thrived with run-after-catch receivers, and that his biggest weakness is pushing the ball down the field. This coach suggested receivers Justin Jefferson and Jauan Jennings were more “down-the-field” threats, even though Jefferson “is very willing to be the shifty intermediate guy” when needed. “They are still waiting for the concrete to dry on J.J. McCarthy, but it’s still being poured out of the truck,” an exec said. “Their alternative is a run-around guy. How are they going to like Kyler’s fundamentals in the pocket? What are they going to say when he keeps running for a first down, running for a 24. Jaxson Dart, Giants “More athleticism, playmaking ability, splash plays than consistency.” – — D coachVoting average 3.24 — 2 Tier 2, 34 Tier 3, 14 Tier 4 Dart was evaluated for a concussion four times in his first nine starts (and once in the preseason), then doubled down on his aggressive playing style. “Good luck,” an offensive coordinator said. There’s an NFL old axiom: Young quarterbacks must learn that every time they put themselves or the football at risk, they are risking the livelihoods of the front office, coaching staff and even some teammates. “I do like Dart,” a defensive coordinator said. “He can throw it. He’s athletic, and he has a little moxie about him. I like that s—.” Dart ranks first among five QBs making their Tiers debuts. Defensive coaches rated him higher than offensive coaches did — no surprise, given offensive coaches typically want quarterbacks to play on time. “It’s more athleticism, playmaking ability, splash plays than consistency,” a defensive coach said. “That is one where if (offensive coordinator) Matt (Nagy) does a good job, he can get back in the head-coaching mix.” Dart led 33 qualifying quarterbacks last season in percentage of plays that were designed rushes, scrambles, sacks or plays where he was hit but not sacked. He was at 33.7 percent, above the 22 percent average. “I’m going to give Jaxson a nudge and give him a 3, arrow up,” a GM said. “But he is not going to change his style of play, so that is where I’m like, ‘I don’t know if this guy is going to last.’” 25.Cam Ward, Titans “A young gunslinger, extremely confident.” — Defensive coachVoting average 3.34 — 4 Tier 2, 25 Tier 3, 21 Tier 4 Ward, like Dart and other players with limited resumes, commanded a large number of Tier 4 votes simply because relatively little is known about him. Those “not enough information” votes frequently suppress where young quarterbacks rank in their Tiers debuts. “He is a young gunslinger, extremely confident,” said a defensive coach whose team faced Ward. “I think they gotta tighten up how he plays the game, because he is really like a playground quarterback. I don’t know how much he is doing it by the book or how it is designed to do, but he is going to make plays.” Voters gave Ward some grace for being in a difficult situation. That was especially true with executives, who were higher on Ward than coaches (only Maye had a more extreme split in this direction). Ward got all four of his Tier 2 votes from executives. “He does not give you confidence that he sees it well and can operate on time when it’s not clean,” an offensive coach said. “The mark of a quarterback in this league is, the pocket is collapsing, you have to anticipate, you have to know what you are looking at and why, and you have to be able to do it in that environment. I didn’t see any signs of him being able to do that.” A defensive coach placing Ward in Tier 3 suggested new coordinator Brian Daboll should design more plays on the perimeter, more play-action and a mix of QB runs/bootlegs. “Cam Ward is going to be really, really good, but he’s a 3 now,” an exec said. “He has confidence. He can throw the ball. He’s fearless in a sense, so he’s not afraid to make mistakes — it doesn’t carry over with him. He has to refine some of his touch and some of his decision-making, but that’s all with experience and playing.” 26 (tie). Tyler Shough, Saints“He’s seen it, he’s relaxed, he’s poised.” — Former GMVoting average 3.42 — 4 Tier 2, 21 Tier 3, 25 Tier 4 Executives and offensive coaches were highest on Shough, who far outpaced the other first-year quarterbacks in EPA per pass play after becoming the Saints’ starter in Week 9 as a rookie. Shough ranked 14th among 34 qualifying quarterbacks over that span. “The combination of his toughness to hang in there and let the deeper routes develop, his ability to go through his reads and then his mobility was impressive,” an opposing coach said. “And it wasn’t like he had a Ben Roethlisberger rookie season where he’s able to just not screw it up. He was kind of carrying those guys.” Shough’s Tier 4 votes were mostly from voters who had not faced him or had scarcely seen him across his nine starts. “I liked him when I watched him,” a defensive coach said. “I hope he’s not a 2 by the time we play them. He’s a 3 at least, already. He’s a dude.” Voters who saw Shough generally liked what they saw. “Because of his age (27 in September), he’s seen it, he’s relaxed, he’s poised,” a former GM said. “He was already used to learning different offenses and new systems and battling back from injuries. Older, more mature, had his life skills in order. I think all that translated well.” 26 (tie). Tua Tagovailoa, Falcons “Solid starter if you know what to do with (him).” – — Defensive coachVoting average 3.42 Declined by 0.62 (2.80) 29 Tier 3, 21 Tier 4 Only Geno Smith dropped further than Tagovailoa in average tier vote from 2025. For the first time since 2022, Tagovailoa got no votes higher than Tier 3. “I thought Tua was physically declining last year,” a GM said. “I don’t know if there was some hidden injury. But Tua is perfect for Kevin Stefanski’s offense. He’ll make quick decisions.” “The boot stuff, yes,” a defensive coach said. “The two-man, three-man stuff, I don’t know if he’s got the consistent arm strength to make it all the time, with his height. He has to see over the linemen with those max protections. You have to fire the ball in, and it may not be like one, two, three, four, five, back step hits and throw.” This coach said he would not discount the possibility of Michael Penix Jr. winning the job. “If it’s a true competition there, and they can reel in Penix a little bit and use his arm strength, that would not surprise me,” the coach said. Tagovailoa was limited with a back injury to open training camp, while Penix has yet to be fully cleared as he recovers from a torn ACL. Tagovailoa’s No. 26 ranking is the same as it was entering 2022, his first season with Mike McDaniel as coach. He has since moved up twice and fallen twice. “Solid starter if you know what to do with Tua,” another defensive coach said. “You gotta make sure the ball’s out of his hands. You gotta make sure when he drops back, if he takes one or a shuffle step out a gun, the ball’s out. And if it’s not, he’s getting hit, ‘cause he can’t run.” 28.Kirk Cousins, Raiders “The lack of being able to move is a big concern.” -— Offensive coordinatorVoting average 3.44 Improved by 0.04 (3.48) 1 Tier 2, 26 Tier 3, 23 Tier 4 Cousins has only one Tier 2 vote over the past two seasons after commanding a career-best 31 of them entering 2024, his first season with Atlanta. Now, he’s a bridge to No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza. “There were years he was a Tier 2, but the lack of being able to move is a big concern,” an offensive coordinator said. The torn Achilles tendon Cousins suffered during the 2023 season has long since healed, but has he ever really recovered? “That’s a hard injury to overcome at that age,” a former GM said. “He never was a strong-armed quarterback. He never was a great mover. Those things have gotten less.” Cousins turns 38 before the season. “Skill-wise, he is a 3, but I don’t know if he will be able to hold up,” a GM said. “That is why I put him in the 4 category. If they did not have Mendoza, would they be comfortable with Kirk lasting 17 games? My answer would be probably not.” Tier 4Unproven player; not enough information to classifyVeteran who ideally would not be a full-season starter 29 Malik Willis, Dolphins “Showed glimpses, but I don’t know what it’s going to look like in Miami.” – Former GMVoting average 3.66 17 Tier 3, 33 Tier 4 Six starts and 155 career pass attempts aren’t much to go on, but it was enough for 17 of the 50 voters to place Willis in Tier 3 as a legitimate starter. “He’s got some energy, some bounce to him as a passer and runner,” an exec said. “Out of this year’s (veteran) QB class, he’s the one guy where you said, ‘OK, if we sign him, we give him a couple years, he could maybe ascend to that 2 level.” The “couple years” part could be a key variable. “He showed glimpses, but I don’t know what it’s going to look like in Miami,” a former GM said. “He could look like a 4 really quick behind that line.” Another former GM explained his Tier 4 vote for Willis by noting that a range of backup quarterbacks who fared well in relief struggled as long-term starters. “I love Malik Willis,” a current GM said. “They are committing to him. I just feel like Year 1 has the potential to be rough just because they are building out the infrastructure around him.” Willis is the lowest-ranked QB without a Tier 5 vote. No one is writing him off as a starter at this early stage, in other words. “Strong arm and athleticism,” a defensive coordinator said. “I just need to see him play through a full season where he gets full defenses with people planning for him.” 30. Geno Smith, Jets “Last year wasn’t fair, and before that, he was a 3.” – — Offensive coachVoting average 3.70 Declined by 0.80 (2.90) 18 Tier 3, 29 Tier 4, 3 Tier 5 Smith suffered the largest year-over-year decline of any quarterback, falling from a career-best 2.90 average to 3.70. His 11-spot drop in the rankings tied Stroud’s for the largest. “He looked terrible on the film we saw,” a defensive coordinator said. “He got sacked 10 times in a game (against Cleveland),” a defensive coach said. “Once you get hit and keep getting hit and hit and hit, how good are you going to be? They had no identity on offense. Geno got a bad rap. He was getting murdered out there.” Seven current GMs placed Smith in Tier 4. The eighth had him in Tier 5. Coaches liked Smith more than execs did. “It’s hard to tell because last year wasn’t fair, and before that he was a 3,” an offensive coach said. “I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he’s a 3 till proven otherwise.” 31. Deshaun Watson, Browns“It’s been so long. It’s almost like a no-grade.” – — Former GMVoting average 3.76 — Declined by 0.98 (2.78) 1 Tier 2, 12 Tier 3, 35 Tier 4, 2 Tier 5 Watson is one of 60 quarterbacks to start at least 10 games since the Browns acquired him in 2022. He ranks 59th among them in EPA per pass play (Zach Wilson is 60th). “You’re not projecting he is going to go the whole season and be a guy at this point, are you?” a GM asked. Most assume Watson and Shedeur Sanders will both start at various points. “(New coach Todd) Monken’s offense is a little more look over here, read the whole field, as opposed to reading the coverages,” a coach said. “That is better for Deshaun, and for Shedeur.” Watson has started only 19 games for Cleveland since being acquired from Houston. He was suspended 11 games in 2022 for violating the personal conduct policy, had shoulder surgery in 2023, then suffered a torn Achilles tendon in 2024 and re-tore it during rehab. He turns 31 in September and should be entering his prime as a quarterback. “I don’t think he can come back,” an offensive coach said. “You do not all of a sudden get drive and desire and processing skills. He showed he had none of that with what he put on film. He’s a 5 at this point.” Only one other voter placed Watson in Tier 5. One holdout, a head coach, put Watson in Tier 2, betting on Monken’s ability to bring out the best in what’s left of him. “I don’t even know what to do with him,” a former GM said. “It’s been so long. It’s almost like a no-grade with him. He could be anything from a 3 to a 5.” 32. Michael Penix Jr., Falcons “I didn’t see a lot of strides. Just physical talent.” – — Offensive coachVoting average 3.88 Declined by 0.10 (3.78) 8 Tier 3, 40 Tier 4, 2 Tier 5 Penix, who tore his right ACL twice in college, suffered a partially torn ACL in his left knee in November. He’s competing with Tagovailoa for the Falcons’ starting job, though he has yet to be cleared for full-team drills. “If he had played the whole year, I would have been leaning 3, but I think just to be fair, it has to be a 4 right now, based on the durability,” a GM said. “He’s similar to when he came out of college,” an offensive coach said. “I didn’t see a lot of strides. Just physical talent.” Twelve starts isn’t much to assess. “He’s just so erratic and I think immature, not from a personal standpoint, but a playmaking and decision-making standpoint,” an exec said. 33. Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals“He’s a classic 4. Great veteran presence.” — ExecVoting average 3.92 — Improved by 0.12 (4.04) 6 Tier 3, 42 Tier 42, 2 Tier 5 Brissett has a 2-15 starting record over the past two seasons partly because his teams, New England and now Arizona, have been so bad on defense and/or special teams. Of the 28 quarterbacks with at least 17 starts over the past two seasons, none has gotten worse defense/special teams support than Brissett (-6.8 EPA per start). Not that Brissett himself has been a star. “He can read defenses and put the ball where it’s supposed to go,” a defensive coordinator who faced Brissett last season said. “Gets it out of his hands quick, can take shots, can challenge you down the field. “I’m not saying this from a talent standpoint, but he operated as a quarterback as well as anyone we saw.” Defensive coaches rated Brissett higher than offensive ones did, producing the third-largest split in that direction behind Tagovailoa and Prescott. “He’s a classic 4,” an exec said. “Great veteran presence, everything very positive, except, you know, when he has to play for long stints.” Brissett, a veteran of seven stops with six teams, including two with New England, falls into the journeyman category at age 33. “He could help you win in a quick-dropback, rhythm passing game and make the short throws and take the occasional 7-cut shot or the occasional go-ball fade,” another defensive coach said. “But he is not going to scramble for you, not going to create. I do think he is smart.” 34. J.J. McCarthy, Vikings“Is knocking down the expectation a little bit more fair to the player?” – ExecVoting average 4.18 Declined by 0.18 (4.00) 1 Tier 3, 39 Tier 4, 10 Tier 5 McCarthy’s 10 votes in Tier 5 are the second-most in QB Tiers history for a first-round quarterback entering his third NFL season. Anthony Richardson drew 11 last year. No other QB has had more than four (Tagovailoa in 2022). “Football looks hard for him,” an offensive coach said. Of course, playing quarterback in the NFL is hard, but McCarthy walked into an enviable situation. The Vikings have arguably the league’s best receiver in Jefferson and a highly regarded play-calling coach in O’Connell. “The head coach and QB coach (Josh McCown) are quarterback snobs because they played the position,” an exec said. “Backup QBs love the fundamentals because it’s their only chance to spend 3-4-5 years in the league. So, the question is, when is their patience going to run out when J.J. keeps doing those unnecessary climbs in the pocket and keeps overthrowing the ball?” The GM responsible for selecting McCarthy, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, lost his job. Murray’s relative success in the league makes him the favorite to start over McCarthy. “People are curious to see how he handles this,” another exec said. “His toughness was the thing that really jumped out to me watching him play. If you have that, you always have a chance.” That toughness hasn’t translated to durability. “He has tools,” a former GM said, “but he was coming out of that Michigan offense, and as an NFL passer, he needed development even though he had arm strength, was athletic, could run. There was the body, too. He’s not a big guy.” The Vikings didn’t necessarily have time for development while fielding a roster packed with expensive veterans. “Going into Year 3, is knocking down the expectation a little bit more fair to the player?” an exec asked. 35. Shedeur Sanders, Browns“If Shedeur has really invested in himself … there might be some upside.” — Off coachVoting average 4.22 1 Tier 3, 37 Tier 4, 12 Tier 5 Though Sanders lacks the obvious talent of Chicago’s Caleb Williams, one voter saw parallels in that both entered their second seasons with fresh starts under blunt, offensive-minded head coaches. Williams took a big jump in 2025 under new Bears coach Ben Johnson. Sanders gets his shot under Monken, although without any guarantees he’ll be the starter in Week 1 or anytime thereafter. “Todd Monken is a great reset in the same way Ben Johnson was a great reset in Chicago,” this voter, an offensive coach, said. “Shedeur gets a fresh start with a no-nonsense, offensive-oriented coach who did a really good job with Lamar Jackson.” The key, this voter said, will be for Sanders to attack his second season with a mindset he didn’t seem to possess as a rookie. “If Shedeur has really invested in himself to be a professional quarterback, studying the playbook and knowing his assignments and being able to get the offense in and out of the huddle at an efficient clip, which he could not do last year, then there might be some upside,” the voter said. Sanders was one of 37 quarterbacks to start at least seven games last season. He ranked last among them in EPA per pass play, right behind McCarthy and Ward. “He’s inaccurate at all three levels,” an exec said. “I can’t tell if he is going to get better, but there’s a huge gap between him and competent QB play.” A dozen voters placed Sanders in Tier 5. “I’d sleep like a baby if I got to play him every week,” one defensive coordinator said. Another defensive coordinator offered more specifics. “He’s not an on-time player, can’t really read through the coverages, is a little bit heavy-footed,” this coordinator said. “He is thicker and harder to tackle than expected, but you shouldn’t lose to him.” One head coach sounded relatively positive. “I thought he was all right, better than expected,” this coach said. “They did a good job with him of making the game simple. And I thought Shedeur played with a chip on his shoulder.” |
