The Daily Briefing Wednesday, December 1, 2021

NFC NORTH

GREEN BAY

QB AARON RODGERS is wondering how NFL rumormongers are getting medical info on his toe and treatment options – with an eye towards his own coaching staff.  Mike Florio, as usual, does not take Rodgers’ side:

Every Tuesday during football season (and on at least one very memorable Friday), Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers appears with Pat McAfee and A.J. Hawk on SiriusXM Mad Dog Radio. Rodgers almost always says something that creates news and/or raises eyebrows, often through the voicing of complaints.

This week, Rodgers complained about reports regarding his broken pinkie toe.

 “With these reports, I don’t know where they’re coming from,” Rodgers said, via Mediaite.com. “I don’t know who’s talking. It seems like there are certain coaches that may have friends in the media that they don’t realize are actually just trying to report things on . . .”

Asked by Hawk whether Rodgers is referring to members of the Green Bay coaching staff, Rodgers said, “There were guys for a while who had their people who they would leak stuff to.”

Rodgers’s latest Green Bay grievance seems odd, given that the vast majority of the talk about his broken toe has come from Rodgers himself. Yes, the Packers listed him as having a toe injury on the same day he returned from the COVID reserve list. They had to. But Rodgers then spoke repeatedly and candidly about his toe, calling it worse than turf toe before joking (not everyone got the memo) that he has COVID toe to ironically blaming the wrong person for not getting the joke about COVID toe to talking openly after Sunday’s win over the game that he’d have further testing on Monday to determine whether surgery is needed.

The only reporting about the toe that came not from Rodgers himself related to the Monday decision that he won’t have surgery for now. That’s it.

So why take shots? Why cast aspersions? It helps no one for Rodgers to do that.

Taking a broader look at his newfound propensity to utilize his platforms to speak for himself, Rodgers needs to ask himself whether he’s doing more harm than good to his overall image and brand by being so open with his views. Although his decision to put the front office on blast after showing up for training camp after weeks of building a mystery more carefully than constructing a ship in a bottle drew rave reviews, his pivot to saying whatever whenever however isn’t helping him in the eyes of the average fan.

I want him to keep talking. It’s good for business. But just like Ben Roethlisberger, who eventually pulled the plug on weekly radio visits that were creating more trouble for him than they were worth, Rodgers would be wise to ask himself whether his chattiness is truly having the desired effect.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Ed Werder tweets on the likely return of unvaccinated WR AMARI COOPER:

@WerderEdESPN

Source: #Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper is expected to travel with the team to New Orleans today and play against the #Saints tomorrow night. Cooper, who is unvaccinated, tested positive for Covid and has missed last two games, both Cowboys losses.

– – –

By virtue of an appeal, DT TRYSTEN HILL will only sit out one game for his postgame conduct last Thursday.  Todd Archer of ESPN.com:

The NFL reduced the suspension of Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle Trysten Hill to one game after hearing an appeal on Tuesday.

He will miss Thursday’s game against the New Orleans Saints.

On Monday, the NFL announced Hill would be suspended two games for punching Las Vegas Raiders guard John Simpson after the Cowboys’ overtime loss on Thanksgiving Day. He can return to the club in time to play Dec. 12 against the Washington Football Team.

Derrick Brooks heard Hill’s appeal on Tuesday and agreed to cut the penalty in half; however, the Cowboys were hoping to have Hill against New Orleans. With a Thursday game, the timing of the suspension’s announcement was odd considering the Cowboys were well into their game preparation.

New York Giants wide receiver Kadarius Toney was fined but not suspended for throwing a punch this season at Cowboys safety Damontae Kazee.

Hill’s suspension was issued by NFL vice president of football operations Jon Runyan for violations of unnecessary roughness and unsportsmanlike conduct rules.

NEW YORK GIANTS

The Giants are signaling that a neck strain might keep QB DANIEL JONES out of the lineup on Sunday in Miami.  Pat Leonard of the New York Daily News:

Daniel Jones is considered week-to-week with a neck strain, the Daily News has learned, and Giants backup quarterback Mike Glennon is expected to start Sunday against the Dolphins in Miami.

The team signed quarterback Jake Fromm off the Buffalo Bills’ practice squad as insurance because Jones hurt his neck early in Sunday’s 13-7 win over the Philadelphia Eagles.

Jones, 24, lowered his head on a read-option quarterback run on the second play of the game and was crunched by Eagles safety Rodney McLeod and linebacker Alex Singleton.

Fullback Eli Penny motioned to the official looking for a helmet-to-helmet flag, but none was thrown. Jones was not removed by the NFL’s concussion spotter. He finished the game and talked to the media after. But Jones felt the injury more acutely on Monday.

Jones’ injury is not landing him on injured reserve at this time, which means there is hope he may only miss two games at most. The third-year quarterback typically tries to play through injuries, too.

Still, Joe Judge and the Giants have to be careful managing a neck injury, which means protecting Jones from himself by holding him out this week at least.

Jones’ injury presses pause on the QB’s effort to continue building in-game momentum and chemistry with new play-caller Freddie Kitchens. Sunday’s win was the first game with Kitchens calling plays into Jones’ helmet following the firing of offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.

This is the third straight year Jones has missed time due to injury. This is also the second time this season that Jones has gotten hurt by lowering his head forward and not adequately protecting himself at the end of a run.

He was concussed and knocked out of a Week 5 loss at Dallas when he lowered his head at the goal line and went helmet-to-helmet with Cowboys linebacker Jabril Cox. Jones then cleared the concussion protocol to play the following week against the L.A. Rams.

“Something we talk to Daniel about a lot is when’s the time to push for the extra yards, when is the time to go ahead and get down and slide and protect yourself or get out of bounds, things of that nature,” Judge said in October.

On Wednesday, though, Coach Joe Judge walked back the thought that Jones was a definite “out” per this tweet from Ralph Vacchiano:

@RVacchianoSNY

QB Daniel Jones will practice today, according to Joe Judge. He’s also expected to practice Thursday and Friday. Judge was vague about Jones’ neck injury but made it clear he’s not ruled out for Sunday.

PHILADELPHIA

Add Eagles QB JALEN HURTS to the Week 13 watch list.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is dealing with an ankle injury, but coach Nick Sirianni is optimistic that the second-year signal-caller will be ready for Sunday’s game against the New York Jets.

“We’re hopeful. We’re feeling good,” the coach said. “He’s feeling better every day. We’re excited that we’re going to have him out there at walkthrough today. So, really hopeful for him. … He’ll be taking reps at walkthrough.”

Hurts came out of the Eagles’ Week 12 loss to the New York Giants nursing an ankle injury. The big question is whether the injury could curtail the dual-threat quarterback’s ability to run against Gang Green on Sunday.

“He’s tough. He’s as tough as they get,” Sirianni said of Hurts. “Obviously, you want that out of your quarterback. So, in his mind, and in my mind, he’s playing, right? And so we’re, again, like I said, we’re hopeful. And I think in his and my minds, we’re both saying he’s going.”

WASHINGTON

PK JOEY SLYE was not available at the end of Monday’s game and seems headed to IR.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Washington kicker Joey Slye hurt his hamstring during Monday night’s win over the Seahawks and head coach Ron Rivera said on Tuesday morning that he’s going to miss multiple weeks, so the team will need to replace him on the active roster.

It appears they’ve found Slye’s replacement. According to multiple reports, Washington will sign Brian Johnson off of the Bears’ practice squad.

Johnson was 8-of-8 on field goals and 5-of-8 on extra points while playing four games with the Saints earlier this year. He was let go in favor of Brett Maher after missing two extra points in a 23-21 loss to the Titans in Week 10.

Johnson will be the fourth kicker for Washington this season. Dustin Hopkins opened the season in the job and lasted six games before giving way to Chris Blewitt for two games. Blewitt had three field goals blocked in those games and Slye handled the duties the last three weeks.

– – –

QB ROBERT GRIFFIN III is working on a book – and he promises some juicy exposes of the culture of misogyny we all know lurks just beneath the surface at Daniel Snyder’s WFT.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com implores him to come clean now, not later.

Former Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III is writing a book, with Gary Myers. Griffin announced the book by saying that it will cover, among other things, the sexual harassment scandal that continues to affect the team, and a “toxic environment” within the organization.

So why hasn’t Griffin previously said something about the sexual harassment? More importantly, why isn’t he saying it now, given the clear public and Congressional interest in the subject?

 “That’s a really valid question,” Myers recently told Glynn A. Hill of the Washington Post, as to Griffin’s past silence. “My thought was that during that period of time, the fact that he was playing for another team when those stories came out, he just might not have felt compelled to speak on it at that point, and there might be some things that he wasn’t comfortable talking about at that point — things that I didn’t know about until recently. . . .

“I know that I’m kind of being vague on that, but I think there’s some things that have come out in the book that better answer that question about why he wasn’t comfortable about speaking out on it two years ago,” Myers said. “There’s going to be things in there regarding that situation, that wouldn’t have been appropriate for him to discuss two years ago, where he wasn’t comfortable discussing two years ago, but just feels differently now.”

Fine, but why not say it now? Why not share what he knows instead of using it to tease a book that won’t be published until August 2022? He’s not playing for any team, and there’s no reason to think that he imminently will be offered a contract to do so.

The simple truth is that he wants people to buy the book and read about it there. The simple reality is that, once the advance copies are printed and circulated in the coming months, the first thing people will look for is whatever it is that he has to say about the workplace environment and culture. And whatever he says about the workplace environment will end up on the pages of the Post and elsewhere. Unless the publisher keeps the book completely under wraps before publication, what Griffin knows will be getting out.

So, again, why not just do the right thing and say what you know now, at a time when the story has lingering relevance?

As Myers acknowledged, it’s definitely a valid question. His answer to it, frankly, was not.

NFC SOUTH

NEW ORLEANS

Coach Sean Payton will not commit to QB TAYSOM HILL making his first start of the season Thursday.  Jelani Scott of NFL.com:

Who will start under center for the Saints on Thursday Night Football?

The answer to that question remains a mystery as Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill continue to wait in the wings less than two days before New Orleans takes the field against Dallas.

Rather than show his hand Tuesday, Saints coach Sean Payton decided to further add to the suspense, telling reporters, “We’ll see” when asked to provide some clarity.

Payton’s aloof answer did come with a noteworthy caveat, though, as Payton noted that he wants to see how Hill, who is currently dealing with an injured foot, looks during Wednesday’s practice. The 31-year-old was listed as a full participant on Monday and Tuesday.

Hill later shared during his media availability that he’d feel healthy enough to play if the game were tonight, an indication that the stars could be aligning for him to make his first start at QB since Week 11, 2020 versus the Falcons. The Saints won that game, 24-9.

As previously reported by NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport, the Saints gave Hill first-team duties this week over Siemian — the starter since Jameis Winston (torn ACL) went down in Week 8 — but the decision to start him will come down to his health.

The Saints are in the midst of a four-game skid since Siemian stepped in to guide New Orleans to a win over Tampa, and making a change could bring some much needed energy to an ailing offense.

AFC NORTH

PITTSBURGH

Mike Tomlin challenges his Steelers. Joe Rutter of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:

After the Cincinnati Bengals handed the Pittsburgh Steelers their biggest margin of defeat in the Mike Tomlin era, it has raised questions about the team’s lack of physicality and toughness.

Addressing the 41-10 loss in Cincinnati and looking ahead to another AFC North game Sunday — this one against the first-place Baltimore Ravens — Tomlin is curious to see if the Steelers change the narrative that they’ve become soft.

“We’ll see on Sunday, won’t we?” Tomlin said Tuesday at his weekly press conference. “It’s put up and shut up time. Talking doesn’t get it done. … What we do in that stadium is real. We’re not seeking comfort or trying to quell the masses. We stunk it up so we’re going to wallow in the stench for a while and wait for our next opportunity to play football.”

It comes in the form of the first of two meetings against the Ravens (8-3) in the final six weeks of the regular season. The Steelers (5-5-1) are riding an 0-2-1 streak that has dropped them into a tie with Cleveland (6-6) at the bottom of the division.

“You don’t get that stench off you in a number of days,” Tomlin said. “It will be some time as we work our way to back to respectability. It will require good days, good focus days, good strategy and good play.”

Tomlin suggested changes will be coming in either personnel or scheme but said they will not be dramatic given the players available and the limited time left in the season.

“They will probably be more subtle, but hopefully significant and significant in a positive way,” he said.

Tomlin said the Steelers could get cornerback Joe Haden back from a two-game absence because of a foot injury. Without Haden, the Steelers gave up 41 points apiece to the Chargers and Bengals.

Outside linebacker T.J. Watt, though, is on the reserve/covid list and may not return in time to play against the Ravens. Inside linebacker Robert Spillane, who played some snaps while Devin Bush was benched, is “less than available” because of a sprained knee.

Tight end Pat Freiermuth is in the concussion protocol and long snapper Christian Kuntz is dealing with a hip injury.

Defensive end Stephon Tuitt has spent all season on injured reserve after having knee surgery in training camp. With six weeks remaining, it’s unlikely that Tuitt will be activated since players typically take advantage of the entire three-week practice period before they are added to the 53-man roster.

“I haven’t given it a six-week perspective,” Tomlin said. “I have a Ravens Week perspective. He won’t be available to us this week. The people that have my attention are the ones who will be.”

AFC SOUTH

JACKSONVILLE

Urban Meyer seeks to quash speculation that he would bolt for Notre Dame or another college job.  Michael DiRicco of ESPN.com:

Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer has no interest in taking another head-coaching job in college and remains committed to rebuilding the Jaguars, per a league source familiar with Meyer’s thinking.

The source said Meyer, 57, does not want to reenter the college ranks at this point in his life. College football has changed significantly with the implementation of name, image and likeness rules, which were not in place when Meyer was coaching his final season at Ohio State (2018).

Meyer’s name has been linked to the opening at Notre Dame, thanks in large part to the fact that he previously called that his “dream job” and was courted by Notre Dame in 2005 along with Florida.

On Tuesday afternoon, Meyer said on a conference call with reporters covering the Los Angeles Rams, the Jaguars’ opponent on Sunday, that he’s not a candidate for the Notre Dame job.

“I’m not a candidate. Obviously, I spent six years of my life there, so great respect for Notre Dame, and as I do USC, UCLA, like we talked about [earlier in the call]. But I’m committed to the Jaguars and doing the best we can to turn this thing around.”

It’s not the first time this season that Meyer has been linked to an open college job. One day after USC fired Clay Helton in September, Meyer said there was “no chance” that he’d leave the NFL to become the Trojans’ head coach. The school filled that vacancy on Monday by hiring Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley.

Meyer also had said in early September that he didn’t miss the rigors of recruiting.

THIS AND THAT

AIKMAN RANKINGS

This week, we are noting the movers and shakers since Week 6, led by the Patriots who have jumped 15 spots to #2 in the Aikman Combined.

Teams in green are those who have moved up at least 5 spots and it is no surprise to see the 49ers, Packers, Chiefs and Colts among them.

Teams in red have declined 5 or more spots with the Bears leading the way (or unleading) with a plunge of 12 ranking spots in the last 6 weeks.

The Bills continue strong at the top after their win over the Saints on Thanksgiving and the top two teams in the current Aikman Combined will go at it on Monday.

We note that the Buccaneers have moved into first in Aikman Offense, and the Patriots have nearly caught the Bills in Aikman Defense.  New England was 15 points behind Buffalo after Week 6 (87.2 to 72.3) after Week 6.

            2021 Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 12

                                                Aikman                                                 NFL

Wk6         Rank  W-L   Team               Com    Off       Def                  Off       Def      Comb

  1              1    7-4      Bills                  175.4   92.7     82.7                  5          1          6

17 (+15)    2    8-4      Patriots            168.5   88.0     80.5                14          4        18

  2 (-1)       3    9-2      Cardinals         167.5   92.8     74.7                10          5        15

  8 (+4)       4    8-3      Buccaneers     163.4   93.2     70.2                  3          8        11

  4 (-1)       5    8-3      Ravens            161.5   87.7     73.8                  4        19        23

  5 (-1)       6    7-4      Cowboys         158.9   89.9     69.0                  1        26        27

  6 (-1)       7    7-4      Bengals           157.9   88.3     69.6                13        13        26

13 (+5)       8    6-5      49ers               157.4   90.8     66.6                12          6        18

  3 (-6)       9    5-6      Saints              156.4   84.8     71.6                27        12        39

  7 (-3)     10    7-4      Rams              156.0   87.7     68.3                  7        15        22

18 (+7)     11    6-6      Colts                154.5   88.5     66.0                11        17        28

21 (+9)     12    5-7      Eagles             154.0   89.5     64.5                18        11        29

10 (-3)     13    6-5      Broncos           153.9   80.7     73.2                20          9        29

20 (+6)     14   7-4      Chiefs              151.5   87.9     63.6                  2        23        25

25 (+10)   15   9-3      Packers           151.2   84.5     66.7                15          7        22

12 (-4)     16    8-4      Titans              150.0   84.1     65.9                16        16        32

  9 (-8)     17    5-6      Vikings             149.8   89.6     60.2                  9        30        39

11 (-7)     18    3-8      Seahawks       148.9   82.5     66.4                31        32        63

22 (+3)     19    6-5      Chargers         147.9   89.6     58.3                  8        14        22

15 (-5)     20    6-6      Browns            147.1   82.7     64.4                17          3        20

16 (-5)     21    5-7      Panthers          146.1   75.9     70.2                28          2        30

30 (+8)     22    4-7      Giants              143.5   74.8     68.7                24        27        51

23            23    5-5-1   Steelers           143.5   79.8     63.7                22        25        47

32 (+8)     24    5-7      Dolphins          142.9   74.6     68.3                25        24        49

19 (-6)     25    6-5      Raiders            141.4   81.8     59.6                  6        21        27

14 (-12)   26    4-7      Bears               140.2   74.4     65.8                30        10        40

26 (+1)     27    5-6      Washington     139.7   79.0     60.7                19        18        37

24 (-4)     28    5-6      Falcons           135.2   76.1     59.1                26        22        48

31 (+2)     29    2-9      Jaguars           134.9   74.0     60.9                23        20        43

29 (-1)     30    0-10-1  Lions                132.8   74.2     58.6                29        28        57

28 (-3)     31    2-9      Texans            132.6   69.5     63.1                32        29        61

27 (-5)     32    3-8      Jets                 131.2   75.3     55.9                21        31        52

                                    NFL Average: 149.9   83.3     66.6                                        

4^th DOWN ANALYTICS

ESPN.com takes the microscope to all 32 coaches as to how they handle the decision to go for it on 4^th down and the success they have with the plays they call.  Much edited below with rankings from 1 (Kliff Kingsbury) to 32 (Mike Tomlin):

The NFL is about to set a record for most fourth-down attempts in a season.

Again.

Coaches are on pace to dial up 838 fourth-down tries in 2021, up from 780 the year prior. (Even if this were still a 16-game season, they’d be on track for a 788 attempts.) It will mark the fourth consecutive year a new high has been established.

Not only are coaches going for it more on fourth down, they’re getting better at making those calls that give them the best chance to win. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, the number of fourth-down errors has plummeted each of the past four seasons, reaching a new low of 951 leaguewide in 2020 and on pace for even fewer this season.

The increased application of analytics has changed the game on fourth down. Coaches across the league are being guided by game-management specialists who communicate the probabilities of an upcoming fourth-down try in real time.

NFL Fourth-Down Trends

YEAR   ATT      4TH-DOWN ERRORS

2012     481       1,246

2013     527       1,250

2014     490       1,192

2015     526       1,171

2016     540       1,121

2017     555       1,150

2018     611       1,028

2019     687       1,003

2020     780       951

2021     838*      924*

* On pace

The most famous example came in Super Bowl LII between the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots. Before Eagles coach Doug Pederson had his sideline conversation with quarterback Nick Foles, leading to the decision to run the “Philly Special” late in the first half, Pederson spoke with Ryan Paganetti, the Dartmouth grad responsible for feeding Pederson math-based recommendations when it came to, among other things, going for it on fourth down.

Anticipating such a situation, Paganetti clicked into Pederson’s headset prior to the Eagles’ third-and-goal play against the Patriots and told him: If we get to fourth down, the light is green.

And the rest is history.

League sources estimate 28 of 32 head coaches have game-management specialists, with about 10 of those being members of the team’s analytics department. The trend of teams being more aggressive on fourth down is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. The practice is becoming more widely accepted and is likely to be commonplace before long.

Is your team ahead of the curve? Here’s a look at how each head coach stacks up. — Tim McManus

How we rank: To come up with our coaches ranking, we looked at all fourth-down calls made under the current head coach with his current team. (For example, for Mike McCarthy, we would only include fourth-down calls made with the Cowboys, not the Packers.) The timeframe was limited to 2017-21, when analytics were firmly established across the league. We relied on three metrics from the ESPN Analytics team:

Total win probability sacrificed through fourth-down errors

Difference in expected fourth-down conversion rates vs. actual rates

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate

These metrics are shown as per-season averages and measure whether the coach’s decision agreed with our analytics model (accounting for two-thirds of the final ranking) as well as success in running fourth-down plays (one-third). All 32 coaches were sorted on those metrics and then those rankings were used to create the final order.

1. Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals

Years covered: 2019-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 18.7% (Rank: 7)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 6.5% (Rank: 1)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 20.2% (Rank: 2)

2. Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers

Years covered: 2019-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 15.3% (Rank: 4)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 3.7% (Rank: 5)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 22% (Rank: 5)

3. John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens

Years covered: 2017-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 14.6% (Rank: 3)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 2.9% (Rank: 8)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 21.6% (Rank: 7)

4. Robert Saleh, New York Jets

Years covered: 2021

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 18.4% (Rank: 6)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 1.3% (Rank: 12)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 18.8% (Rank: 1)

5. Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs

Years covered: 2017-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 16.1% (Rank: 5)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 0% (Rank: T-14)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 21.1% (Rank: 5)

6. Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles

Years covered: 2021

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 10.2% (Rank: 1)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -20.9% (Rank: 31)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 20.5% (Rank: T-3)

7. David Culley, Houston Texans

Years covered: 2021

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 19.7% (Rank: 9)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 2.2% (Rank: T-10)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 24.2% (Rank: 18)

8. Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns

Years covered: 2020-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 13.1% (Rank: 2)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -12.9% (Rank: 30)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 21.2% (Rank: 6)

9. Matt Rhule, Carolina Panthers

Years covered: 2020-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 27.2% (Rank: T-22)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 4.2% (Rank: 4)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 23.4% (Rank: T-13)

10. Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings

Years covered: 2017-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 19.6% (Rank: 8)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -6.6% (Rank: 24)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 22.7% (Rank: T-10)

11. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

Years covered: 2020-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 21.7% (Rank: 11)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 0% (Rank: T-14)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 26.2% (Rank: T-19)

12. Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons

Years covered: 2021

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 24.1% (Rank: 17)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -10.5% (Rank: 27)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 20.5% (Rank: T-3)

T-13. Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks

Years covered: 2017-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 29.4% (Rank: 27)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 0.1% (Rank: 13)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 22.1% (Rank: 9)

T-13. Brian Flores, Miami Dolphins

Years covered: 2019-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 21.9% (Rank: 12)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -3.9% (Rank: 22)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 23.6% (Rank: 15)

T-15. Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills

Years covered: 2017-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 20.4% (Rank: 10)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -11.6% (Rank: 28)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 23.2% (Rank: 12)

T-15. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints

Years covered: 2017-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 27.2% (Rank: T-22)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 3.2% (Rank: 7)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 26.2% (Rank: T-19)

17. Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts

Years covered: 2018-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 24.5% (Rank: 18)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -1% (Rank: 17)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 23.8% (Rank: 16)

18. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals

Years covered: 2019-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 22.6% (Rank: 14)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 0% (Rank: T-14)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 26.8% (Rank: 22)

19. Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions

Years covered: 2021

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 22.2% (Rank: 13)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -25.8% (Rank: 32)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 22.7% (Rank: T-10)

20. Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 23.9% (Rank: 16)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -6.2% (Rank: 23)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 24.1% (Rank: 17)

21. Vic Fangio, Denver Broncos

Years covered: 2019-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 26.6% (Rank: 21)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 2.2% (Rank: 11)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 27.5% (Rank: T-24)

22. Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers

Years covered: 2021

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 61.9% (Rank: 32)*

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 5.2% (Rank: 3)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 27.3% (Rank: 23)

* Staley’s league-worst WP sacrificed ranking can mostly be chalked up to being too aggressive for our model in going for it as opposed to attempting field goals against the Chiefs in Week 3. Without those plays, he would rank higher on this list.

23. Urban Meyer, Jacksonville Jaguars

Years covered: 2021

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 28.7% (Rank: 25)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 5.9% (Rank: 2)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 31.8% (Rank: 31)

T-24. Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears

Years covered: 2018-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 29.3% (Rank: 26)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -2.9% (Rank: 20)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 23.4% (Rank: T-13)

T-24. Ron Rivera, Washington Football Team

Years covered: 2020-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 32.5% (Rank: 29)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 3.2% (Rank: 6)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 27.5% (Rank: T-24)

26. Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Years covered: 2019-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 23.8% (Rank: 15)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -3.6% (Rank: 21)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 27.6% (Rank: 26)

27. Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers

Years covered: 2017-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 25% (Rank: 19)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -7.5% (Rank: 25)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 26.8% (Rank: T-21)

28. Joe Judge, New York Giants

Years covered: 2020-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 31% (Rank: 28)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 2.3% (Rank: 9)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 29.2% (Rank: 29)

29. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Years covered: 2017-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 25.7% (Rank: 20)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -2.7% (Rank: 19)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 29.8% (Rank: 30)

30. Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams

Years covered: 2017-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 28.3% (Rank: 24)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -12.5% (Rank: 29)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 28.7% (Rank: 27)

31. Rich Bisaccia, Las Vegas Raiders

Years covered: 2021 (Weeks 6-12)

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 47.2% (Rank: 31)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -2% (Rank: 18)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 34.8% (Rank: 32)

32. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers

Years covered: 2017-21

Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 33.1% (Rank: 30)

Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: -8.3% (Rank: 26)

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 28.9% (Rank: 28)

ROOKIE RATINGS

Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com ranks the top rookies so far – and with 77 catches, WR JAYLEN WADDLE of Miami is not on the list, not even the “just missed” list:

Twelve weeks into the 2021 NFL season and we are squarely in the body-of-work zone for the league’s first-year players. Some of the rookies have flashed one week and felt every bump on the learning curve in others, while some have been derailed for a moment by injuries. But in the third rookie rankings of the season, there is, again, a new No. 1. Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons ascends to that spot, as he continues to be versatile, impactful and exceedingly busy, given he has played 84% of the team’s defensive snaps.

Six of the top 10 were selected in the first round of last April’s draft, and the Patriots’ Mac Jones continues to be the only rookie passer to crack the top 10 — though Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence continues to grind his way closer to the list. But it isn’t about some flash here, a big play there and a mistake over there; it’s about play from Weeks 1 through 12 as a whole. It’s about degree of difficulty in what these players are being asked to do and how they’ve handled it.

1. Micah Parsons, ILB/DE, Dallas Cowboys

Drafted: No. 12 overall

Parsons’ pass rush win rate is tied for third in the league among all players, and that’s just part of the equation. He has lined up on the edge and played inside linebacker, and he has the most tackles overall of any player in the league who also has at least nine sacks. Parsons also has 14 quarterback hits over his past four games.

2. Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots

Drafted: No. 15 overall

His team has won six games in a row and seven of the past eight after the Patriots opened the season at 1-4 when Jones was tossed into the deep end of the pool. He has learned on the go — he has thrown three interceptions over the past six games after six over the first eight. He has the best infrastructure around him of any of the rookie passers, and it shows, but his decision-making and penchant for getting the ball out on time has usually been spot on. Jones has four games over the past seven with six or fewer incompletions, and he has completed 70.3% of his passes overall.

3. Pat Surtain II, CB, Denver Broncos

Drafted: No. 9 overall

Surtain is tied for sixth in the league among all defensive backs with 11 passes defended, and Broncos coach Vic Fangio said this week that Surtain should be in the conversation for the Defensive Rookie of the Year. His pick-six in Week 12 was the first of his career, and he has consistently played with discipline in the variety of the Broncos’ zone looks and matched up in man coverage. Surtain has surrendered just 5.7 yards per target this season.

4. Rashawn Slater, OT, Los Angeles Chargers

Drafted: No. 13 overall

Slater’s pass block win rate is the best among the league’s rookie tackles. He has played 759 snaps this season — 100% of the Chargers’ plays through 11 games — and personnel evaluators around the league consistently have ranked him among the league’s top first-year players.

5. Creed Humphrey, C, Kansas City Chiefs

Drafted: No. 63 overall

Like Slater, Humphrey has had a high work rate right from the season opener (789 snaps), and while he has not been forced to work in pass protection in space, his 97.3% pass block win rate is best among the league’s linemen through Week 12’s games. He has surrendered one sack this season and has allowed more than one pressure in just two games.

6. Nate Hobbs, CB, Las Vegas Raiders

Drafted: No. 167 overall

You have to separate Hobbs a bit from some of the Raiders’ struggles overall on defense — they’re last in the league in red zone defense and goal-to-go defense, and they’re now 30th in scoring defense. But Hobbs’ work as a slot corner isn’t the problem. He’s physical at the point of attack in the run game, while his footwork and balance have helped him consistently limit catches when targeted. He needs to turn that positioning into some additional plays on the ball, as he has no interceptions and one pass defended, but his toughness and dependability will go a long way.

7. Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Drafted: No. 4 overall

Pitts hasn’t had a touchdown since Week 5, and since his back-to-back 100-yard games in October, he has had three games over the past five with fewer than 30 yards receiving. So what? The guy is still one of the best rookies in the league, and if the Falcons had Calvin Ridley or Hayden Hurst in the lineup, defenses wouldn’t be able to spend so much time around him, especially in the red zone. Pitts has 14.7 yards per catch this season, too.

8. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Drafted: No. 5 overall

Chase’s peak thus far this season may have been the best of any first-year player, but it’s body-of-work time. Life is routinely tough for rookie wide receivers as veteran defensive backs start to test them physically, either at the line of scrimmage or at the catch point. Chase is getting fewer wins in contested situations as the season wears on, spots where he was winning the ball more often in September. That said, he’s going over 1,000 yards soon, and his 18.1 yards per catch is third among the league’s wide receivers.

9. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, ILB, Cleveland Browns

Drafted: No. 52 overall

Owusu-Koramoah missed three games with an ankle injury, but since his return in Week 10, he has shown the speed and versatility that enables defensive coordinator Joe Woods to engage him in a variety of ways. His 12-tackle, half-sack performance in the loss to the Ravens on Sunday was his best game of the season.

10. Jevon Holland, S, Miami Dolphins

Stats: 9 starts, 46 tackles, 2 INTs, 2.0 sacks, 7 passes defended, 5 QB hits

Drafted: No. 36 overall

I see a much different player on the game film from Week 5 on, and it’s easy to see his growing comfort in all that he is asked to do in the Dolphins’ defense, including in the pass rush. Holland is active and consistent, and he just might be the surest tackler of any defensive back in this absolutely loaded rookie class. Toss in some return work — he has averaged 7.5 yards on 11 punt returns over the past six games — and he impacts a game in multiple ways.

Just missed

Odafe Oweh, OLB/DE, Baltimore Ravens

There are moments when Oweh is simply astounding, and as he continues to put more and more of those moments together in the same game, his impact will continue to rise. He has five games with just one or two tackles, but he piles up the quarterback hits (five in the past three games).

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Even as the Eagles continue to lean more and more on the running game, Smith has carved out some impact plays along the way. He had three touchdowns combined in back-to-back games against the Chargers and Broncos.

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos

Williams pulls, pushes and drags tacklers on his runs. He’s second among the league’s rookie backs in rushing yards (568) and is tied for the lead among the rookie backs in yards per carry (4.9). And his role is growing in the passing game; he has been targeted at least four times in three of the past five games.

Nick Bolton, ILB, Kansas City Chiefs

Some in the league wondered whether the second-round pick would have the coverage skills to be a full-time player in an NFL defense. And there have been times this season when that part of the game has been a significant challenge for him. But filling in for Anthony Hitchens (right elbow) resulted in 15-tackle and 11-tackle games. His snap count has dipped with Hitchens’ return, but when the Chiefs keep him around the line of scrimmage, he has been impactful.

Greg Newsome II, CB, Cleveland Browns

After missing two games early in the season with a calf injury, he has consistently played with composure. His work in Week 9 against the Bengals’ wide receivers, including Chase, caught the attention of many evaluators in the league.

Christian Barmore, DT, New England Patriots

Barmore has hovered between 48% and 76% of the team’s defensive snaps in every game this season, and he has two starts. He is explosive and disruptive, as his 7.8% pass rush win rate is best among the league’s rookie interior linemen.

Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Even as the Steelers’ offense continues to contract — 22nd in total offense, 28th in rushing and 30th on third down — Harris has consistently been productive. But he also has six games this season with 16 or fewer carries, despite his potential to produce with more opportunities.