Enjoy Wednesday afternoon football!

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com on how the coaches left behind with the departure of Coach Matt Patricia are coping:

The Lions fired head coach Matt Patricia over the weekend and that’s led to questions for the team’s remaining coaches about how much will change in the final weeks of the season.

Defensive coordinator Cory Undlin was one of the assistants to get that question on Tuesday. Undlin joined the team this year and worked under a head coach who put together the defense, but Undlin said that he “wasn’t held back from anything” that  he wanted to do by Patricia.

He didn’t rule out some tweaks as the season winds down, but it doesn’t sound like anything radical is in store.

“You can’t change an entire defense in three days,” Undlin said, via Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press. “We’ll see what it looks like after the five weeks. We’ve got a lot of work, a lot of effort into the stuff that we’ve been doing. Obviously we haven’t been doing great all the time. . . . So we’ll try to just tighten some of that stuff up and see if we can execute better than we have.”

Sweeping changes will come in the offseason and, given the way the defense has played this year, they are likely to include a replacement for Undlin regardless of how things go over the final five games.

NFC EAST

Cynthia Frelund, NFL Network’s Analytics Expert, has a computer that says each team in the NFC East has at least a 15% chance of winning the division.

When scanning the 2020 NFL playoff picture, the NFC East presents an extremely interesting case study in the competitive life cycle of NFL franchises. Heading into Week 13, all four teams — the 4-7 Washington Football Team, the 4-7 New York Giants, the 3-7-1 Philadelphia Eagles and the 3-8 Dallas Cowboys — still have a chance to land a playoff berth or a top-three choice in the 2021 NFL Draft. (In fact, it’s likely that multiple teams from the division will be picking in the top five.) And while the division, which is nearly certain to field only one postseason team, might appear to be in sorry shape, we should remember that the difference between the best teams and the worst teams in the NFL often isn’t as dramatic as it seems. After all, any team that earns a playoff spot has the potential to make a Super Bowl run, whatever their regular-season record might have been.

What will it take for each NFC East team to make it to the playoffs? To find out, I simulated the rest of the season 100,000 times per remaining game. Below, you’ll see the most likely outcome for each team, along with some of the main contextualized statistical drivers behind the results:

1 Washington Football Team    4-7-0

They win the division in: 31.5% of simulations.

To make the playoffs, they must: stay balanced and efficient on early downs and continue to lean on their defensive front.

 A strong indicator for success is the combination of an excellent defensive front (in terms of generating effective pressure on passing downs) and the ability to generate efficient yardage output on early downs (first and second). Washington’s front ranks fourth-best in terms of win-share as a unit in my model, and Pro Football Focus agrees with that rosy assessment, giving Washington’s pass rush the fifth-best grade in the NFL. Next Gen Stats shows that Washington’s front generates pressure on 28.6 percent of dropbacks, tied for the sixth-best rate in the NFL, and the rest of the defense helps back that up by allowing a completion percentage on passes of 10-plus air yards of just 43.1 percent, sixth-lowest, per NGS.

 Over their past four games (since their Week 8 bye), they’ve averaged 6.09 yards per play on early downs, which is a dramatic increase from their mark of 4.62 in Weeks 1-7. NGS shows that Antonio Gibson leads the NFL with eight rushing touchdowns between the tackles. When facing six or fewer defenders in the box, Gibson is averaging 5.5 yards per rush; when there are seven or more defenders in the box, that average drops to 3.7 (and 3.9 on non-red-zone attempts), illustrating the importance of maintaining balance between the run and pass and staying efficient on early downs. Receiver Terry McLaurin has 10 or more receptions on four different routes (slant, screen, hitch and crossing). Since quarterback Alex Smith is only attempting passes of 10-plus yards 18.7 percent of the time (the lowest rate in the NFL, per NGS), space has to be created through balanced diversity of passing routes and the threat of the run.

 Washington is the best team in the division as of Week 13 — their remaining schedule (at Pittsburgh, at San Francisco, vs. Seattle, vs. Carolina and at Philadelphia) is the biggest threat to their postseason potential. My model only has Washington favored in one remaining contest (and by a narrow margin, in Week 17 against the Eagles). But they are within probable striking distance (meaning no less than a 45 percent chance to win) in their games against the Niners and Panthers, which drives Washington’s highest projected win total in the NFC East. 

2 New York Giants  4-7-0

They win the division in: 28.8% of simulations.

To make the playoffs, they must: keep the QB from being pressured on passing downs and use the balance the defense provides.

Daniel Jones’ availability is a question mark after he suffered a hamstring injury Sunday — but what is clear is that he’s committed many more turnovers (nine interceptions and four fumbles lost) than touchdown passes (eight) this season. This isn’t really an analytics note, but it is just plain staggering. In fairness to the second-year pro, though, I’ll point out that he’s been under pressure on 40.6 percent of dropbacks this season, the highest rate in the NFL. Meanwhile, NGS shows that Jones has attempted just 25.5 percent of passes at a distance of 10-plus air yards, ranking third-lowest in the NFL this season. The Giants’ defense has been a strength, allowing a 25.6 percent third-down conversion rate over their past four games, which is the second lowest in the NFL in Weeks 8-12 (down from 50.5 percent in Weeks 1-7).

Eyeing New York’s remaining schedule (at Seattle, vs. Arizona, vs. Cleveland, at Baltimore and vs. Dallas), keeping Jones (or whomever is playing quarterback) clean and ensuring an efficient run game is going to be a key driver of success (or the lack thereof). My model only favors the Giants in their Week 17 matchup against Dallas, with the team forecasted at 44 percent in their next-closest matchup, against Cleveland. 

3 Philadelphia Eagles    3-7-1

They win the division in: 22.4% of simulations.

To make the playoffs, they must: take care of the ball on offense and lean on their defensive front.

Playing winning football is a balancing act. No team is without flaws or pressure points, but the best teams are able to accentuate their strengths while minimizing the impact of their weaknesses. Some teams can rely on exceptional units to drive their success, as long as the other units hold up their end of the bargain. Ahead of the season, the Eagles looked to have the right blend of personnel, potential and schedule to win the division. However, as we move into December, Philadelphia is half a game behind the Giants (whom the Eagles will not face again this season) and Washington — and the game-breaking defensive front has not received enough point-scoring support from the offense for the Eagles to win games.

The Eagles have the best defensive front in the NFC East, generating the third-best pressure rate in the NFL this season (29.9%), per NGS, narrowly edging out Washington. Over the past four games, they’ve only allowed 27.8 percent of third downs to be converted (the third-best mark over Weeks 8-12). However, their banged-up O-line has hampered the offense’s ability to move the ball. Carson Wentz has been under pressure on 33.1 percent of dropbacks, ranking third-most in the NFL (only the Giants’ Daniel Jones and the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott have been under pressure more often). Wentz is pacing the NFL in interceptions (15), and he has not topped 100 in passer rating in any game this season; this is just the eighth time since 2000 that a QB has started 11 games without reaching the century mark in passer rating at least once. For the season, the Eagles’ 21 giveaways rank third (only Dallas and Denver have committed more). Over their past four games, the Eagles’ offense has only converted 28.3 percent of third downs while connecting on just seven passes of 20-plus yards; both marks are the second-lowest in the NFL in Weeks 8-12, while their 4.5 yards-per-play mark in that span is tied for the lowest.

When I simulate the Eagles’ remaining schedule (at Green Bay, vs. New Orleans, at Arizona, at Dallas and at Washington), they are favored in just one remaining matchup. Remember, it’s never binary (100 percent) until the game is played, but Philadelphia’s most likely record is 5-10-1, which happens in about 54 percent of simulations (6-10-1 happens in 21 percent of simulations).

4 Dallas Cowboys   3-8-0

They win the division in: 17.3% of simulations.

To make the playoffs, they must: keep Andy Dalton’s quick passing efficient and limit the time the defense is on the field to exploit a favorable schedule.

 No team is allowing a higher passer rating on passes of 10-plus air yards than the Cowboys (129.8, per NGS). That, combined with leaky early-down run defense (Dallas gives up 126.5 rushing yards per game on early downs, the second-most in the NFL), presents a steep defensive hole for the offense to dig out of, especially considering Dalton is throwing only 23 percent of his passes 10-plus air yards this season. Even Dak Prescott, who was throwing 32 percent of his passes 10-plus air yards (per NGS) before going down with an ankle injury in Week 5, would have a hard time with this kind of challenge. Since Week 8, the Cowboys average just 4.62 yards per play on all downs (down from 5.73 in Weeks 1-7) and only a 36.8 percent third-down conversion rate (down from 42.5% in Weeks 1-7).

The Cowboys’ remaining schedule (at Baltimore, at Cincinnati, vs. San Francisco, vs. Philadelphia, at New York Giants) is the best in the NFC East. Bolstered by a forecasted narrow win against Cincinnati (53.2), the Cowboys’ best chance to shift their fate is to flip two forecasted narrow losses (to Philadelphia and New York) into wins. However, it’s quite likely they could be playing spoiler to the Giants as opposed to playing for their own berth.

NEW YORK GIANTS

The first-place Giants have had to place a key defender, LB KYLER FACKRELL, on IR.  Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com:

The New York Giants placed starting outside linebacker Kyler Fackrell on injured reserve Tuesday with a calf injury, leaving them extremely shorthanded at the position as they try to win the NFC East. That means Fackrell will miss at least three games, all against winning teams.

The Giants (4-7) are currently in first place in the division, ahead of the Washington Football Team, by virtue of tiebreakers.

Fackrell is tied for second on the Giants with three sacks and was playing close to 100% of the snaps before suffering the injury Sunday against Cincinnati. No outside linebacker currently on the active roster has more than one sack.

Defensive lineman Leonard Williams leads the Giants with six sacks.

Fackrell’s injury leaves the Giants extremely thin at the position with Lorenzo Carter and Oshane Ximines also on injured reserve and out for the season. They also traded Markus Golden last month.

PHILADELPHIA

Coach Doug Pederson is willing to give up the play-calling if it will get QB CARSON WENTZ out of his funk.  Glenn Erby of USA TODAY:

The Eagles are embattled in a three-game losing streak and with head coach Doug Pederson fighting for his job, all solutions are on the table.

One solution that has been discussed previously but could now become a reality is Pederson giving up play-calling duties for fresher eyes or a different approach.

Pederson reiterated his love for play-calling and stated that he’ll continue to do so, but he also said that a change is clearly “on the table.”

Pederson may not make the change this season, but the potential for adding a play-caller could be leverage for the embattled Eagles head coach to keep his job.

Is Pederson really “fighting for his job”?

Well, Pederson, the Eagles Super Bowl winning coach, seems to think so.  Steve DelVecchio of Larry Brown Sports:

The Philadelphia Eagles lost their third straight game on Monday night and continue to blow chances to take control of the abysmal NFC East. There has been a lot of talk about benching Carson Wentz, but is head coach Doug Pederson also facing an uncertain future with the franchise?

Pederson was asked on Tuesday if he has reason to believe his job is in jeopardy. He said he has a “good” relationship with owner Jeffrey Lurie but has not been reassured that he will remain with the team in 2021.

Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reported earlier this season that Pederson’s job is safe, but he admitted on Monday that he “can’t say that with any confidence anymore.” Keep in mind that Pederson has a background as an offensive coordinator, and the Eagles’ offense looked terrible on Monday and has been lost for the majority of the season.

Pederson is only three years removed from leading Philadelphia to a Super Bowl win, but a 3-7-1 record is not what ownership had in mind for this season. Lurie and company may have a specific reason for not benching Wentz, and that reason could make Pederson even more uneasy about his own job.

This from Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

A report last week said that Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie did not attend the team’s Week 11 loss to the Browns because of mounting frustration with how the team was playing.

The team said Lurie was being cautious ahead of seeing his mother over the Thanksgiving holiday, but the report from Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer indicated that Lurie has also “left various workouts early out of disgust.” Eagles head coach Doug Pederson was asked about Lurie’s reported frustration during his Tuesday press conference.

Pederson said that “some of these questions might be for Mr. Lurie” and that the two men have continued to have a good relationship while meeting regularly.

“Those conversations are private,” Pederson said. “I’m not going to get into that. This is not the time or the place to really get into those types of conversations.”

Pederson also said that he has not “been reassured one way or the other” in response to a question about his job security and that he’s “not going there mentally” while the team plays out the rest of the season.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

The 49ers will be spending the next month keeping the people of Santa Clara County safe from their presence by holing out in Arizona.  Jeremy Bergman of NFL.com:

The 49ers’ season experienced a rebirth last week with a surprising win over the division-leading Rams. For San Francisco’s renaissance to continue through December, the team is hoping to make the best of its stay, for at least the next three weeks, at a Phoenix-area Renaissance.

San Francisco is expected to depart for Arizona on Wednesday, four days after learning that Santa Clara County, home to its stadium and team facility, had issued new COVID-related restrictions prohibiting contact sports for three weeks. The 49ers announced Monday they will play their Week 13 and 14 games against the Buffalo Bills and Washington Football Team, respectively, at State Farm Stadium, home of the rival Arizona Cardinals.

San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters Tuesday that before and between those contests the 49ers will live and practice in a multi-block radius in Glendale, Arizona.

“Our hotel will be our new Levi’s Stadium, which is where we go to work,” Shanahan said. “Just like when we’re here, you go to work every day, you get tested. When we’re here, then we go straight home to our house and stay there until you come back the next day to work. Now I look at it as our house happens to be where our work’s at. So when we’re done with work, guys just go upstairs to their hotel room.”

That hotel, the Renaissance Hotel in Glendale, which is a pigskin’s throw from State Farm Stadium, won’t be the site of a “bonding” experience.

“We’re not allowed to bond in most spots,” Shanahan said, noting to reporters that San Francisco’s last COVID-19 outbreak before Week 9 was the result of out-of-office mingling amongst players.

The 49ers’ work trip out of the state isn’t a vacation, either, or an excuse to go out in and around Glendale.

Shanahan noted that the team has to be even more careful because, in an ironic turn, the COVID-infection rate in Maricopa County, Arizona is currently higher than that in Santa Clara County, California.

“We’ve got to be smart,” Shanahan said. “We’re not trying to go anywhere.”

Joining the 49ers as they go nowhere but their hotel and the practice field in a Phoenix exurb will be their rehabbing players, like George Kittle and Jimmy Garoppolo, who are not returning to the field anytime soon — though Shanahan said he’s “holding out hope” for both of their returns — but will be unable to rehab at San Francisco’s facility in Santa Clara.

The DB has stayed at that Renaissance, right near an entertainment complex with plenty of places to unwind in normal times.  They will see the lights as they look out the windows.

Will their families be able to visit them in Glendale if they foreswear returning to the sanctity of Santa Clara?

So if a family member in Santa Clara is stricken, say a child breaks a bone, a player must submit to two weeks confinement by the authorities if he wants to provide fatherly comfort?

AFC WEST

DENVER

This update on the contested Broncos ownership situation.  Curtis Crabtree ofProFootballTalk.com:

A decision over the future of the Denver Broncos franchise has been put on hold until next July.

Via Mike Klis of 9News, the trial over the state of Pat Bowlen’s trust following a challenge from two of his daughters is now scheduled for July 12, 2021 after being postponed in August due to an inability for in-person proceedings due to the ongoing pandemic.

Arapahoe County Court Judge John Scipione has allotted five weeks for the trial.

The lawsuit was filed by Beth Bowlen Wallace challenging the validity of the trust that was put together to oversee the affairs of Bowlen’s estate. Bowlen passed away in 2019 due to complications from Alzheimer’s and the trial questions whether the patriarch of the family had the mental capacity in 2009 to put the Broncos into the trust, which is overseen by Broncos president/CEO Joe Ellis, team counsel Rich Slivka and Denver attorney Mary Kelly.

The trust has been tasked with determining which, if any, of the Bowlen children will take over ownership of the Broncos franchise into the future. A list of criteria had been put in place for any of the children that sought to take over controlling ownership of the franchise. Brittany Bowlen has appeared to become the leading candidate to assume that position from the trust and rejoined the organization last year.

KANSAS CITY

WR TYREEK HILL on his first impression of QB PATRICK MAHOMES.

Kansas City Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill has more touchdown catches this season (13) than he has had at any other point in his career. But he didn’t always have confidence in the man throwing him the ball.

In an interview with Showtime’s “Inside the NFL” that aired Tuesday, Hill made it clear that he didn’t think much of then-rookie quarterback Patrick Mahomes during Mahomes’ first training camp.

“I thought he was trash,” Hill told Showtime. “I ain’t gonna cap.

“I was like, ‘This is who y’all drafted?'”

Since that first impression, Mahomes has thrown for 12,909 yards and 106 touchdowns. Hill has been the biggest beneficiary, having led Chiefs wide receivers in yards and touchdowns each season in which Mahomes has been the starter. This season, Hill has 1,021 yards and 13 touchdowns in 11 games played.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

The different strokes for different folks path continues.  While the Broncos were crippled and not postponed – the Ravens are going to play even as positive tests continue. Here is Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com providing the scorecard:

The Ravens are headed to Pittsburgh and Wednesday’s game is still on, but Baltimore had two more positive COVID-19 tests before departing Tuesday, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

Sources told ESPN the positive tests belong to Ravens safety Geno Stone, a rookie seventh-round pick who has played two games this season, and an equipment manager.

The results are “not unexpected and not a concern for the game,” a source told Schefter.

The two positive tests were deemed no risk to others because, a source told ESPN’s Dan Graziano, the Ravens “operated the last few days acting as though everyone is positive.” Walk-through workouts were masked, distanced and outdoors to reduce risk, basically eliminating close contacts.

The Ravens will be tested again Wednesday before the game with point-of-care tests that return results within 30 minutes and are seen by the league as more accurate than the point-of-care tests they were using earlier in the season. If the point-of-care tests are negative, the game is on, a source told Schefter.

The Ravens have had 10 straight days of positive tests as they prepare to play the undefeated Steelers in a game that has been postponed three times because of the outbreak in Baltimore. At least one dozen Ravens have tested positive, including reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson.

Baltimore practiced early Tuesday and then awaited the latest test results. The Ravens headed to the airport around 5 p.m. ET Tuesday, a source told ESPN’s Dianna Russini.

The news came hours after Baltimore activated nose tackle Brandon Williams, quarterback Trace McSorley and injured cornerbacks Tavon Young and Khalil Dorsey from the reserve/COVID-19 list.

However, Williams was ruled out for Wednesday’s game with an ankle injury. He hasn’t practiced since injuring his ankle in a 23-17 loss in New England on Nov. 15.

The Ravens also announced that two assistant coaches — Joe D’Alessandris (offensive line) and Matt Weiss (running backs) — did not travel to Pittsburgh due to illness.

The Ravens have trimmed the number of players on the reserve/COVID-19 list to 16 players, which marks the first time they have reduced the number of players on this list since the outbreak in Baltimore began on Nov. 22.

It’s possible the Ravens will get down to 14 players before they play the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers on Wednesday afternoon. Running backs J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram are both eligible to come off the list after completing a 10-day quarantine.

McSorley, who was on the reserve/COVID-19 list for 10 days, gives Baltimore two quarterbacks on the active roster. Robert Griffin III is expected to start in place of Jackson, who tested positive for COVID-19 on Thanksgiving. If McSorley is unable to back up Griffin, Baltimore would promote undrafted rookie Tyler Huntley from the practice squad.

Young and Dorsey revert to injured reserve after coming off the reserve/COVID-19 list.

CLEVELAND

Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com on the clear path to the playoffs owned by the Browns after they escaped Jacksonville:

Sunday was a good day for Cleveland’s playoff hopes. The Las Vegas Raiders, who have the tiebreaker over the Browns, lost to the Atlanta Falcons. The Browns struggled to put away a bad Jacksonville Jaguars team but a 27-25 win counts the same as a blowout. When you’ve made the playoffs once this century, you’re not stressing about style points.

The Browns suddenly have a nice lead in the wild-card race. The Baltimore Ravens, who are scheduled to play the 10-0 Steelers on Wednesday at far less than full strength, are the AFC’s No. 8 team (seven will make the playoffs) and trail Cleveland by a game-and-a-half. The Raiders, in the No. 9 spot, are two games behind the Browns.

The Browns still play the putrid New York Jets and Giants, who aren’t very good either. If they win those games, as they should, that’s 10 wins. It would be hard to catch them. Here’s the remaining schedule:

Week 13: at Titans

Week 14: vs. Ravens

Week 15: at Giants

Week 16: at Jets

Week 17: vs. Steelers

The games against the Tennessee Titans, Ravens and Steelers are tough but not impossible. We don’t know how all the disruptions for the Ravens the past week will affect them the rest of the season. The Steelers could possibly have the No. 1 seed wrapped up by Week 17, and it doesn’t appear they’re focused on a 16-0 season. Even if the Browns just beat the Jets and Giants, they might be OK. A win in any of the other games would make them a virtual lock.

Then again, this is the Browns. Ask any Browns fan if he or she feels comfortable penciling Cleveland into the NFL’s bracket yet. It’s not that the Browns have gotten their fans’ hopes up just to dash them too often. It’s that there’s rarely been any hope at all.

It isn’t a perfect Browns team. Far from it. They run the ball very well. They’re mostly league average in everything else, and that includes quarterback Baker Mayfield. The Browns are deficient at receiver due to Odell Beckham Jr.’s season-ending injury, though Jarvis Landry finally had his first big game of the season on Sunday. They aren’t terrible or great in any defensive metric. It’s a team that could still falter down the stretch.

But they are 8-3. It’s hard to miss the playoffs after you reach five games over .500. The Browns might not be the dynamic contender they appeared to be turning into a couple years ago when they had seemingly endless draft picks and cap space, but they’re a good, solid team that has a cushion in the wild-card race.

This might not be the season Browns fans envisioned, with limited fans and a pandemic overshadowing it all. But it’s still worth celebrating, if Cleveland finishes the job and makes it to the playoffs. It has been a long time coming.

– – –

The Browns could have a pair of 1,000-yard rushers.  Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:

In today’s NFL, where quarterbacks are king, it’s not often that a team relies on its running backs as much as the Browns do.

But Cleveland is relying on its running backs a lot this season, and the top two ball carriers in Cleveland, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, are both on pace to run for more than 1,000 rushing yards.

Nick Chubb is leading the Browns in rushing with 719 yards, despite missing four games this season. If he continues to run at his pace of 102.7 yards per game, he’ll finish the season with 1,233 rushing yards.

Kareem Hunt is second on the Browns with 706 rushing yards. If Hunt continues at his pace of 64.2 yards a game, he’ll finish the season with 1,027 rushing yards.

Six teams in NFL history have had two 1,000-yard rushers: The 1972 Dolphins with Larry Csonka and Mercury Morris, the 1976 Steelers with Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier, the 1985 Browns with Kevin Mack and Earnest Byner, the 2006 Falcons with Warrick Dunn and Michael Vick, the 2008 Giants with Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward, the 2009 Panthers with Jonathan Stweart and DeAngelo Williams, and the 2019 Ravens with Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram.

The Browns are closing in on being the seventh team in history to do it.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

Keep an eye on the Bills injury report.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

During Sunday’s win over the Chargers, Bills quarterback Josh Allen took an awkward hit that seemed to twist his ankle. He emerged showing some signs of being a bit hobbled (he missed one play), but he kept going.

“It didn’t feel great,” Allen told PFT by phone after Sunday’s game. “But it is what it is. Gonna take more than that to get me out. Everything that I can do to be out on the field I’m gonna do. It was a little painful but nothing crazy.”

That was right after the game. He may have felt different come Monday morning. Regardless, the Bills won’t be saying anything about Allen’s ankle until they have to, and they don’t have to until they produce the first practice report of the week.

Because the Bills play the 49ers on Monday night in Arizona, Buffalo’s first practice report of the week will be published on Thursday. When it emerges, the first question will be whether Allen appears on the report with an ankle injury and, if so, whether and to what extent he practiced.

THIS AND THAT

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS ODDS

Using their DVOA methodology, here is how they see the Super Bowl and draft odds.

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

Reaching the Conference Championship Game

Winning the Conference Championship Game

Winning the Super Bowl

Team        Conf App    Conf Win         SB Win

NO             71.5%       53.0%              33.7%

PIT            70.0%        42.1%              20.3%

KC             64.9%        36.2%              17.7%

GB             38.0%        14.6%                6.5%

SEA           32.2%        11.8%                4.9%

TB             19.1%          8.2%                4.2%

LAR           23.8%          8.8%                3.8%

BUF           19.3%          6.8%                2.5%

TEN           16.4%          5.1%               1.8%

IND            10.0%          3.9%               1.5%

BAL              8.7%         3.2%               1.2%

ARI               5.9%         1.6%               0.6%

MIA              5.5%         1.5%               0.5%

WAS             2.2%         0.5%               0.1%

LV                 2.2%         0.5%               0.1%

CLE              2.7%         0.6%               0.1%

MIN              1.2%         0.3%              0.1%

NYG             2.4%         0.4%               0.1%

CHI              1.3%          0.3%               0.1%

PHI              1.1%          0.2%               0.0%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Team           Top Pick      Top 5 Pick

NYJ                74.6%         99.9%

JAX                24.3%         97.6%

CIN                   0.7%         86.7%

DAL                  0.2%         46.6%

LAC                  0.1%         46.1%

PHI                   0.0%         31.6%

WAS                 0.0%         22.4%

DET                  0.0%         17.8%

DEN                 0.0%         13.9%

NYG                 0.0%         13.0%

ATL                  0.0%         12.4%

CAR                 0.0%           7.1%

HOU                 0.0%           3.5%

NE                    0.0%           0.4%

CHI                   0.0%           0.3%

MIN                  0.0%           0.2%

SF                    0.0%           0.2%

2021 DRAFT

A Mock Draft from Ryan Wilson of CBSSports.com:

There’s more uncertainty this draft season than we’ve seen in some time, at least in terms of what organizations value most as they build their draft boards.

With that in mind, here’s our latest mock draft (in case you’re keeping score, this is version 13). And remember, the draft order is based on team record, strength of schedule and the subsequent tiebreakers.

1 – NY JETS

Trevor Lawrence QB

CLEMSON • JR • 6’6″ / 220 LBS

The Jets’ remaining schedule is against teams with winning records and a Week 17 matchup vs. the Patriots. 0-16 is a very real possibility. The biggest remaining question is, how will the Jets put Lawrence in the best position to have success?

2 – JACKSONVILLE

Justin Fields QB

OHIO STATE • JR • 6’3″ / 228 LBS

Lawrence has been cemented into the No. 1 spot since the start of the college season and that won’t change. Meanwhile, the No. 2 QB spot could be up for grabs. For now, we really like Justin Fields, who has shown a lot of improvement from 2019 to 2020.

3 – CINCINNATI

Penei Sewell OL

OREGON • JR • 6’6″ / 330 LBS

Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 11, which reinforced the idea that Cincy has to protect the future of their franchise. The team should draft several O-linemen this spring because Burrow took a lot of hits as a rookie.

4 – DALLAS

Patrick Surtain II CB

ALABAMA • JR • 6’2″ / 203 LBS

Dallas desperately needs help in the secondary and Surtain, who has been solid this season for Alabama, is our CB1.

5 – LA CHARGERS

Caleb Farley CB

VIRGINIA TECH • JR • 6’2″ / 207 LBS

Only cornerbacks Casey Hayward and Chris Harris are under contract after the 2021 season and Farley, a former wideout who has opted out of the ’20 season, has the potential to be a physical playmaking presence on the perimeter.

6 – CAROLINA

Zach Wilson QB

BYU • JR • 6’3″ / 210 LBS

Teddy Bridgewater has been really good, but if the Panthers don’t consider him the long-term answer, they could draft his replacement with plans on letting Wilson take over the job in 2022.

7 – PHILADELPHIA

Micah Parsons LB

PENN STATE • JR • 6’3″ / 244 LBS

We know, we know, the Eagles don’t draft linebackers in the first round, but they have very little depth at the position and Micah Parsons is one of the best players in this class.

8 – WASHINGTON

Trey Lance QB

NFL DRAFT • SOPH • 6’4″ / 226 LBS

Would the Football Team take a high-upside franchise quarterback this high, especially since they’re just two years removed from drafting Dwayne Haskins? Lance is a special talent who played just one season at NDSU, but he can do it all. Unfortunately for WFT, he’ll need at least a year of seasoning before assuming the starting gig.

9 – DETROIT

Jaylen Waddle WR

ALABAMA • JR • 5’10” / 182 LBS

Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola are all in the final year of their deals. And while the Lions will almost certainly keep Golladay, adding Waddle would certainly be welcome by Matthew Stafford — or whomever ends up under center next year should the new regime decide to go in a different direction. Waddle had been our WR1 before his season-ending injury and there’s still a chance he ends up there.

10 – ATLANTA

Kwity Paye DL

MICHIGAN • SR • 6’4″ / 272 LBS

The Falcons got off to another sluggish start, and most of their shortcomings have been on the defensive side of the ball. Paye is a freakish athlete who looks much improved in 2020 and could be the first edge rusher off the board.

11 – MIAMI (from Houston)

Gregory Rousseau EDGE

MIAMI (FL) • SOPH • 6’7″ / 265 LBS

Rousseau, who opted out before the season, came out of nowhere in 2019, logging 15.5 sacks for the Hurricanes. He’s new to the position but there’s a lot to work with and he’d give Miami a much-needed spark off the edge.

12 – DENVER

Jaycee Horn LB

SOUTH CAROLINA • JR • 6’1″ / 205 LBS

The Broncos focus on shoring up their secondary here. Rookie CB Michael Ojemudia has been a pleasant surprise and Horn, who opted out recently after beginning the season with the Gamecocks, is a physical corner who had two interceptions in seven games in ’20.

13 – MINNESOTA

Rashawn Slater OL

NORTHWESTERN • JR • 6’3″ / 305 LBS

The Vikings have needs along the interior offensive line and Slater, who was dominant at left tackle last season — he played right tackle the two seasons before that — has the versatility to line up anywhere. In fact, his future may be inside at guard.

14 – CHICAGO

Mac Jones QB

ALABAMA • JR • 6’3″ / 214 LBS

Mac Jones is the best deep-ball passer in college football and he could very well work his way into the first round by next spring. Yes, there are questions about his athleticism, and him constantly throwing to wide-open WRs, but he’s also incredibly consistent, which is exactly what the Bears need right now.

15 – NEW ENGLAND

Kyle Pitts TE

FLORIDA • JR • 6’6″ / 240 LBS

The Patriots need a QB but five are already off the board. Instead, they recommit to the tight end position and take Pitts, who plays a lot like Darren Waller but may be a better athlete.

16 – SAN FRANCISCO

Derion Kendrick CB

CLEMSON • JR • 6’0″ / 190 LBS

The 49ers have five cornerbacks headed for unrestricted free agency (including Richard Sherman and Jason Verrett) and two more as exclusive rights free agents. Kendrick, who is still learning the position, has been a standout on the Tigers defense in 2020.

17 – LAS VEGAS

Joseph Ossai LB

TEXAS • JR • 6’4″ / 253 LBS

The Raiders have struggled to get to the quarterback this season and Ossai has consistently shown the ability to get into the backfield for the Longhorns.

18 – BALTIMORE

Ja’Marr Chase WR

LSU • JR • 6’1″ / 200 LBS

It’s hard to imagine Ja’Marr Chase falling this far but Justin Jefferson, a legit OROY candidate, wasn’t taken until No. 22. Put another way: If Chase somehow is still on the board the Ravens will sprint to the podium to take him. Baltimore’s offense has floundered this season, in part because of the lack of chemistry between Lamar Jackson and his young wideouts.

19 – NY GIANTS

Alijah Vera-Tucker OL

USC • JR • 6’4″ / 315 LBS

The Giants demoted Will Hernandez on Sunday and if the plan is to protect Daniel Jones, the offensive line remains a priority. Vera-Tucker, who is playing tackle this season for USC, excelled inside at guard the previous two seasons.

20 – ARIZONA

Tyson Campbell CB

GEORGIA • SOPH • 6’2″ / 185 LBS

Patrick Peterson, Dre Kirkpatrick and Johnathan Joseph are in the final year of their current deals, and Campbell is a long CB who is just scratching the surface on his potential.

21 – TAMPA BAY

Christian Barmore DL

ALABAMA • SOPH • 6’5″ / 310 LBS

Injured Vita Vea will be back in 2021 but there won’t be much depth behind him and adding an interior presence like Barmore, who is one of the most athletic defensive linemen in this class, will only make an already young and physical defense even more so.

22 – MIAMI

Devonta Smith WR

ALABAMA • JR • 6’1″ / 175 LBS

We mentioned Jaylen Waddle as a possible WR1 but DeVonta Smith also deserves to be in that conversation. He’s been unstoppable so far this season and Tua Tagovailoa would welcome a reunion with his former Alabama teammate.

23 – INDIANAPOLIS

Christian Darrisaw OL

VIRGINIA TECH • JR • 6’5″ / 314 LBS

Darrisaw’s been impressive this season for the Hokies — especially against Miami edge rusher Quincy Roche, who could be a Day 2 pick. Anthony Castonzo still has two years left on his deal but there’s not much depth behind him.

24 – CLEVELAND

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB

NOTRE DAME • JR • 6’1″ / 215 LBS

Owusu-Koramoah is listed as a linebacker but you can find him all over the field. He’s having a great 2020 campaign and he can come off the edge and has the athleticism, speed and change of direction to be an asset in coverage.

   From Los Angeles Rams

25 – JACKSONVILLE (from LA Rams)

Pat Freiermuth TE

PENN STATE • JR • 6’5″ / 259 LBS

The Jags get their QB in Justin Fields and they give him a middle-of-the-field security blanket in Pat Freiermuth, who can stress the defense at every level.

26 – NY JETS (from Seattle)

Jayson Oweh EDGE

PENN STATE • SOPH • 6’5″ / 253 LBS

Oweh is still learning the position but he has the strength and athleticism to be a really good player at the next level. The Jets have needs just about everywhere and while a WR would make sense here, the WR class is much deeper than the pass-rusher class.

27 – TENNESSEE

Eric Stokes CB

GEORGIA • JR • 6’1″ / 185 LBS

The Titans could also look to bolster the defensive line, especially pass rusher, but their pass defense ranks 25th, according to DVOA, and Stokes, who is a long CB, would give Tennessee another young CB a year after drafting Kristian Fulton.

28 – BUFFALO

Nick Bolton LB

MISSOURI • JR • 6’0″ / 232 LBS

Bolton is one of the best players no one talked much about heading into the SEC season and he’s quietly been very good in 2020 too. Imagine his speed and explosiveness alongside Tremaine Edmunds.

29 – GREEN BAY

Rashod Bateman WR

MINNESOTA • SOPH • 6’2″ / 210 LBS

After opting in to start the season, Bateman recently opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. He came into the 2020 season as one of the best pass catchers in college football and he would give Rodgers something the Packers QB didn’t get in the 2020 draft: a wideout.

30 – KANSAS CITY

Wyatt Davis OL

OHIO STATE • SOPH • 6’4″ / 313 LBS

The Chiefs don’t have a lot of holes on offense but Kelechi Osemele is an unrestricted free agent after the season and Andrew Wylie will be a restricted free agent. Davis is a road grader who is a Day 1 starter.

31 – NEW ORLEANS

Rondale Moore WR

PURDUE • SOPH • 5’9″ / 180 LBS

Yes, Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are currently on the roster, but imagine what Rondale Moore, who is also a threat in the return game, would bring to Sean Payton’s offense.

32 – PITTSBURGH

Carlos Basham Jr. EDGE

WAKE FOREST • SR • 6’5″ / 285 LBS

Basham is raw but he has snaps where he absolutely dominates. He looks like a Steelers edge rusher, and the team may be in the market for one if they can’t re-sign Bud Dupree, who has been downright unblockable this season.