But Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com thinks two recent plays indicate the NFL is backing away from long, painstaking reviews and subsequent reversals.

One of the problems with the league’s replay-review system is that, far too often, the “clear and obvious” standard gets forgotten when someone is looking at the visual evidence of a call that was made or not made. Recently, it seems that the bar could be getting higher.

And that could be a clue regarding the next step in the evolution of replay review.

This past weekend, there were multiple examples of plays that could have been overturned via replay review, but weren’t. Perhaps that’s happening because the league is trying to stay true to the “50 drunks in a bar” explanation of what it takes for a ruling on the field to be regarded as clearly and obviously wrong.

In the Bears-Browns game, a touchdown catch by Cleveland tight end David Njoku looked to be incomplete, because his heel came down out of bounds. (In non-toe tap situations, the NFL requires a player to get his entire foot inbounds, if his toes strike first and the feet then come down in the normal process of finishing a step.) While Njoku twisted his foot like a catcher pulling his mitt into the strike zone, the heel struck out of bounds.

It seemed clear that the heel landed on the white stripe at the back of the end zone. But if the league is nudging the bar even higher, it’s not the kind of clear-and-obvious no-brainer that compels reversal. Thus, the ruling on the field of touchdown was upheld.

In Sunday night’s Ravens-Jaguars game, Jacksonville receiver Calvin Ridley caught a pass at the back of the end zone. The ruling on the field was incomplete. The Jaguars challenged.

NBC rules analyst Terry McAulay suggested that the call should be overturned: “Clearly inbounds. I believe he gains complete control. Knee down. Touchdown.”

Alas, not a touchdown. After further review, the ruling on the field was upheld.

Assuming these two examples weren’t aberrations (and there’s a decent chance they might have been), the potential decision to move the bar higher arguably hints at a future in which the NFL uses replay review more like college football currently does. Forget about the red flags. If it looks like any reviewable call is clearly and obviously wrong, take a look and change it. Quickly.

That would be far better than the current system, where the formal replay process is supplemented by a hit-or-miss sky-judge approach that sometimes activates with alacrity to fix rulings on the field, and sometimes doesn’t. Review everything that is reviewable. Take the time to get it right.

It won’t make the games longer, especially if the league applies the “clear and obvious” standard literally and efficiently, perhaps with only real-time second looks and none of the frame-by-frame stuff that can grind a game to a halt.

If it takes a super-slow-motion examination, it’s not clear and obvious. If you have to lean forward and squint, it’s not clear and obvious. And it seems that the league might be trying to make the proper application of the “clear and obvious” standard far more clear, and far more obvious.

CHICAGO

Jeremy Layton lays out the tricky issues facing the Bears and re-upping with QB JUSTIN FIELDS:

@JeremyLayt0n

this is the crux of the Justin Fields vs. Caleb Williams/Drake Maye Bears quarterback that is either being ignored or brushed aside by a good chunk of the fan base

if you think the Bears should keep Fields after this season, you also think they should commit to him for 4-5 years and give him an extension

you’re 100 percent giving him the fifth-year option (~$25 mil). you don’t necessarily have to extend him this year – but you’re betting that you’ll want to after year four

at MINIMUM, you’ll pay Fields $40 mil in 2026. that’s the Daniel Jones contract. Fields has the same agent as Deshaun Watson, Derwin James, Michael Thomas, Jalen Ramsey – all guys who got top of the market deals. You simply aren’t bringing him back on $25 mil a year, it’s not happening

if you get through year four and you don’t want to give him that money, passing on Williams/Maye was a mistake, full stop. you’re either looking for a QB in free agency or making a lower pick in a worse draft class. plus you owe Fields $25 mil in a year the young talent on the roster should be ready to compete

so, once again, the question isn’t a broad “do you believe in Justin Fields?” most Bears fans do, to some extent. I certainly think he’s a starting QB in the NFL and an above average one. it’s, “do you believe in Fields enough to give him a second contract, dedicate a good chunk of your cap to him and pass on two really good prospects who will be cheaper?”

that’s where I think the answer is no. you can disagree! but you have to be willing to accept everything that comes with it.

NEW YORK GIANTS

QB TOMMY DeVITO shows some savvy in this story from Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post that is so New Jersey:

Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito and the owner of a New Jersey pizzeria who was steaming over an autograph signing gone terribly wrong broke bread — and a whole lot more — Tuesday afternoon.

Over a meal of pizzas, chicken parm and sodas mixed from an antique machine, DeVito, members of his new marketing team and Nino Coniglio — owner of Coniglio’s Old Fashioned in Morristown — agreed to a charitable solution that mends most fences in a viral feud, as witnessed by The Post.

Coniglio originally advertised a Tuesday appearance by DeVito at his restaurant but cancelled after he said DeVito’s agent, Sean Stellato, doubled the allegedly previously agreed-upon appearance fee for two hours and 250 autographs from $10,000 to $20,000 in response to the quarterback’s shining moment when the Giants beat the Packers.

Stellato was noticeably absent from Tuesday’s sit-down and it later became clear that he has been replaced as DeVito’s marketing representative.

DeVito, who held Nino and wife Shealyn’s 11-month-old daughter Penny, will return to the pizzeria at a to-be-determined January date to work 30 minutes behind the counter and sign 100 autographs, marketing rep Maxx Lepselter said, and Coniglio’s will make 100 sandwiches and donate 100 percent of the proceeds from sales during that time to charity, Coniglio said.

“It was really important to me,” DeVito told The Post. “There was a lot going at that time — and a lot of people doing different things as part of my team. Some things slipped through the cracks and as soon as I was made aware of it — which was Monday, when it hit my phone — that’s when I was like, ‘We need to go in there, meet him face to face, set things right, eat the awesome pizza and have fun.”

As he waited for DeVito, Coniglio said he wanted to “believe” in the DeVito that has been portrayed and it “would break my heart” if that wasn’t the case.

He felt “sorry for the bad press” that DeVito was getting as a result of the cancelled appearance.

Coniglio’s faith was restored within an hour.

“Tommy is a stand-up guy,” he told The Post. “He apologized, and this will be a great thing for charity. Amends were made with him. I support Tommy.”

Stellato, the fedora- and flashy-suit-wearing NFL agent whose profile skyrocketed over the last two weeks simultaneously to DeVito’s, accompanied DeVito and others to an appearance at Bubbakoo’s Burritos in Livingston earlier in the day.

It was his intent to go to the pizzeria to apologize but Coniglio made it clear through other parties that Stellato was not welcome.

“It was a complete misunderstanding,” Stellato told The Post, adding that he thought negotiations still were ongoing without a formalized contract. “Our intent is Tommy adores his fans, the community, the Giants organization. I feel the same way about my clients. I would never do anything unethically. … We’ll make this right. I’m not in this to get into arguments with people.”

Coniglio wasn’t interested in Stellato coming to the restaurant because he felt “ambushed” by overtures made on Stellato’s behalf that did not come directly from him.

“There’s no apology,” Coniglio said, “because until it didn’t go his way, he wasn’t interested in apologies or calling back.”

ATLANTA

With Arthur Blank’s comments on Tuesday, Coach Arthur Smith is officially on the hot seat.  This interview with Jeff Hullinger of Georgia Public Broadcasting:

Falcons head coach Arthur Smith has become a very hot topic in Atlanta.

Following Sunday’s loss in Charlotte to the Carolina Panthers, the league’s worst team, questions concerning the Falcons abound.

The Smith-led team gained just 204 offensive yards, opting to ignore first-round pick, running back Bijan Robinson in favor of Tyler Allgeier.

The Falcons are on the cusp of their third straight losing season under Smith.

Owner Arthur Blank has been quiet on the status of his head coach, until now.

Tuesday he spoke with GPB’s Jeff Hullinger from the Blank Family Foundation building, inside the John Lewis Library.

Jeff Hullinger: In 2024, is Arthur Smith going to be your head football coach?

Arthur Blank: We are committed to Coach Smith. We are going to play these last three games; we are committed to win. We will let the season play out and go from there. Obviously, this has not been the kind of year we expected; you would hear that from Coach Smith, you would hear it from our fans and our players. We understand that; we understand the challenges. At the end of the year, we will assess where we are and go from there.

Jeff Hullinger: Does he have to get to the playoffs to come back?

Arthur Blank: No, that was never really a requirement. The requirement was we have more of a competitive team this year. I think through this part of the season, it’s been mixed, quite honestly, that’s what I think. And that’s what the coach would say. Arthur [Smith] is a very honest, very — (pause). He looks at himself very critically, so he comes from a beautiful family, that has great values and he reflects those values in his leadership the best he can. So, we’ll see how the season plays out and go from there.

Jeff Hullinger: The quarterback situation this season has been tough.

Arthur Blank: It has been tough; we certainly had high hopes for Desmond Ridder. He has done some good things for us this year. He would be the first to tell you, he hasn’t been the kind of consistent performer we’d like him to be. In this business, the NFL business, or college ball, you have turnovers, it’s a very tough thing.

Arthur Smith says the promotion of QB TAYLOR HEINICKE is not a one-week thing.

Barring something unforeseen, the Falcons will not be switching back to Desmond Ridder at starting quarterback over the last three weeks of the season.

Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith said in his Wednesday press conference that Taylor Heinicke will start at QB for the rest of the season.

Ridder was previously benched for his performance midway through the season, but then the club had him back in the saddle as QB1. After Sunday’s loss to the Panthers, however, Atlanta is making a more permanent switch.

“Obviously Des came back a few weeks ago. Plan was to let him finish out the season. And that’s what the plan was. But you have to be willing to adapt,” Smith said, via Terrin Waack of the team’s website. “We feel right now, with where we’re at, that Taylor gives us the best chance. We have to adapt.”

Smith continued to talk about adapting when he confirmed that Heinicke would start the last three games.

“That’s the plan. But you have to be adaptable,” Smith said. “Look, if you don’t like the way something is going — maybe that’s offensively, maybe that’s special teams [or] defensively — that’s your job. There’s no perfect solution sometimes. And I take a lot of consideration and responsibility in this job because I think sometimes it’s easy to look like hey, let me blame something on this person or that person. There’s a lot that goes into it.”

Still, Smith is anticipating the offense will improve with Heinicke behind center.

“Taylor has had a lot of success in this league in big moments,” Smith said. “That’s why we signed him.”

Heinicke has completed 55.4 percent of his passes this season for 498 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.

In 13 games with 12 starts, Ridder has completed 63.3 percent of his throws for 2,528 yards with 10 touchdowns and 10 picks.

At 6-8, the Falcons play the Colts, Bears, and Saints to end the regular season.

CINCINNATI

WR Ja’MARR CHASE’s status for Saturday is uncertain.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

Cincinnati Bengals coach Zac Taylor won’t rule out star receiver Ja’Marr Chase for Saturday’s pivotal game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Taylor said Chase won’t practice on Tuesday but remains “day-to-day.”

NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported on Monday night that an MRI revealed that Chase suffered a separated shoulder in the Week 15 win over the Minnesota Vikings, which is expected to knock him out against Pittsburgh and potentially more.

Taylor, however, said, “We’ll see how the week goes.”

Already down Joe Burrow, the Bengals losing Chase would be a blow to Cincinnati, who currently sit in the No. 6 seed in the AFC. However, with quarterback Jake Browning playing well, Cincy still boasts stellar wideouts in Tee Higgins, who had a pair of TDs Saturday, and Tyler Boyd to bridge the gap.

Chase currently sits seventh in the NFL with 1,156 receiving yards, seventh in catches with 93, and tied for eighth with seven touchdown grabs.

PITTSBURGH

Eager Texans rookie WR TANK DELL suffered a season-ending injury when he joined a pile on an interior running play.  Steelers WR GEORGE PICKENS was watching – and now has an excuse for his lack of effort. Jason Owens of YahooSports.com:

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens took heat Saturday when he declined to block near the goal line on a run against the Indianapolis Colts that came up short of a touchdown.

On Tuesday he explained the decision. In short, he didn’t want to get hurt.

Pickens discussed his decision with reporters while citing a run block by Houston Texans receiver Tank Dell that resulted in a season-ending fractured fibula.

“I was just trying to prevent the Tank Dell situation, the same thing that happened to [him],” Pickens said, per ESPN’s Brooke Pryor. “I ain’t want to get an injury. When you stay on the block too low, you can get ran up on very easily.”

The play in question Saturday took place in the first quarter of a scoreless game. Running back Jaylen Warren took a pitch from the 7-yard line and ran around the left end. He had a shot at the end zone, but was tackled from behind by linebacker E.J. Speed when cornerback Jaylon Jones impeded his path. Pickens had a chance to block Jones but instead stood and did nothing.

The Steelers went on to score a touchdown on a fourth-down sneak by quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Indianapolis won the game 30-13.

Comparing Sunday’s play to one that got Tank Dell injured

Pickens cited Dell, who fractured his fibula on a goal-line run in a Texans win over the Denver Broncos on Dec. 3. Dell’s injury took place in a decidedly different situation than the play where Pickens declined to block. On the Texans run, Dell lined up on the interior of a power formation at the goal line. His leg got pinned under a pile of players as running back Dameon Pierce crossed the goal line.

Mike Tomlin addresses Pickens

Saturday wasn’t the first time Pickens has drawn attention for his lack of engagement on a run play. He’s previously drawn criticism for declining to block against the New England Patriots and not making an effort to recover a loose ball against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Pickens has also garnered attention for his outward expressions of frustration on the football field. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin told reporters last week that he and Pickens had met to discuss how to handle frustrations in “a professional and mature way.” That was after Pittsburgh’s Week 14 loss to the Patriots.

Tomlin addressed Pickens again on Monday following Pittsburgh’s loss to Indianapolis.

“I thought he was better but still has, obviously, room for continued improvement,” Tomlin told reporters.

Tomlin then pointed to Pickens’ failure to block on the Warren run as an area for progress.

“That’s one of the examples I’m talking about in terms of obvious room for improvement,” Tomlin continued.

Pickens brushed off the broader commentary on his effort on Tuesday while criticizing media.

“No, not really because like I said, once again, it’s media guys,” Pickens said, per Pryor, when asked if the criticism bothered him. “Guys who ain’t never played a game, they got a job in doing media. They’re never going to be in the NFL. They’re just media guys.”

HOUSTON

It’s strange how the NFL works.  A huge December game with major playoff implications.  Eight weeks ago could you have imagined JOE FLACCO vs. CASE KEENUM – and both fan bases are reasonably pleased with the prospects?  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Texans are expected to play a second game without starting quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Stroud still is dealing with sensitivity to light and other common concussion symptoms, Aaron Wilson of KPRC reports. Stroud is not medically cleared to return to practice yet, which makes it unlikely he will complete the steps necessary to clear concussion protocol before Sunday.

The Texans are preparing Case Keenum to make a second consecutive start in place of Stroud.

Keenum supplanted Davis Mills on the depth chart last week, with Davis serving as the backup.

The Texans signed Tim Boyle to the practice squad Tuesday, which was a sign that Stroud isn’t ready to return yet.

Coach DeMeco Ryans said Monday that Stroud remained in concussion protocol, where the rookie landed after his head bounced off the turf on a hit from Jets defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. Williams was not fined for the hit.

Meanwhile, concussion detective Mike Florio is on the case.

Against the Jets in Week 14, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud officially suffered a concussion. The prior week against the Broncos, Stroud officially did not.

Unofficially, he might have.

Look at this video. After a big hit midway through the fourth quarter, Stroud seems to be unconscious or close to it. His teammates pull him up. He displays signs of ataxia, the new buzz word for wobbly, loopy, and/or stumbling. When told to exit the field for a concussion evaluation, Stroud points to his midsection.

It doesn’t work. He’s sent off for an evaluation. He turns to argue, unsteady through the exchange.

And then he was cleared to return to the game. After missing only two plays.

Watch the video again. Ataxia or no ataxia? And here’s the key. If a player shows ataxia, he’s supposed to be shut down for the rest of the game and placed into the protocol.

Stroud was nevertheless cleared to return. It makes no sense.

On one hand, the NFL talks a good game when it comes to protecting players from concussions — and from themselves, when they want to keep playing after possibly suffering a concussion. On the other hand, the process of getting the player off the field continues to be deeply flawed.

It seems that the league would rather risk having a player with a concussion suffer a second one than risk having a bunch of non-concussed players held out of game action until they receive a clean bill of health. That attitude is eventually going to get a player seriously injured.

And that, of course, is when the league will act surprised and overreact, at least for a little while.

Boasting about how the league protects players against head trauma isn’t nearly not good enough. The video makes it clear to anyone with common sense. Stroud had ataxia. He should have been removed from the game.

INDIANAPOLIS

With three games left in a somewhat surprising playoff bid, the Colts have suspended two of their players for the rest of the season.  Joel Erickson of the Indy Star:

The Colts have suspended wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie and cornerback Tony Brown for three games for conduct detrimental to the team, the organization announced on Tuesday afternoon.

McKenzie and Brown were both healthy scratches for Saturday’s game against the Steelers, but the team placed the two players on the reserve/suspended list for three games, the rest of the regular season. They will each lose $190,588 in salary.

No further details on the suspensions were provided by the team.

Colts news:Indy coach disagrees with NFL suspension of Steelers safety that caused Colts’ concussion

Both veteran players have made most of their impacts on special teams this season.

McKenzie has played sparingly on offense this season, making 11 catches for 82 yards and carrying three times for 14 yards in a little more than 100 snaps.

The veteran has spent most of the season as the team’s primary return man, averaging 8.9 yards per punt and 25.3 yards per kick, although he has also fumbled twice as the team’s punt returner.

Rookie Josh Downs averaged 12.7 yards in McKenzie’s place on punt return against the Steelers.

Brown has played just 56 snaps defensively— 55 coming in a start against New Orleans — but has been a key member of special teams, making three tackles and forcing a fumble by Tennessee punter Ryan Stonehouse.

NEW YORK JETS

The Jets are activating QB AARON RODGERS!  But don’t get too excited.  Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:

Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers made it clear on Tuesday that he is not healthy enough to play at this point in his recovery from a torn Achilles tendon, but that is not going to keep the Jets from activating him from injured reserve.

Head coach Robert Saleh shared the team’s plans during a Wednesday press conference. Saleh was clear that Rodgers is “not playing,” but will come off injured reserve because that will allow him to continue practicing with the team over the final weeks of the season.

“We’re still gonna keep him on the active,” Saleh said. “We’ve got the roster flexibility with all the different things that have happened over the course of the last couple of weeks. It’s all part of his rehab and just having him out on the football field is a plus for everybody. It’s a plus for him, it’s a plus for his teammates so we’re gonna keep him on the 53.”

THIS AND THAT

EXECUTIVE OF THE YEAR CANDIDATES

Let’s see who former exec Scott Pioli floats as candidates for NFL Executive of the Year.

The Pro Football Writers of America’s Executive of the Year award isn’t something you earn overnight.

Receiving that honor is typically the product of several years of premier team building — and talent acquisition goes beyond the players. Being a general manager/vice president of player personnel sometimes includes the hiring of head coaches. It also requires building and developing a strong scouting/personnel staff that learns and executes the grading system you create or implement.

Being the head of football operations also includes salary cap management and roster building with a strategy. For instance, I am a true believer that accumulating resources (draft picks) creates value for a multitude of reasons. There is not one GM who is perfect; in fact, even the very best at drafting players miss more than they hit. It’s similar to baseball, where the game’s best get a hit three out of 10 at-bats but find additional ways to create value with on-base percentage (OBP). As a general manager, you must find alternative ways to acquire (free agency, trades, waivers), develop, retain and move on from players to help your system. That’s why having more draft capital gives you a better chance of getting it right. Some argue about the value of draft picks, but acquiring and developing young talent gives you financial flexibility to sustain longer-term success.

Success of an executive is often a product of strong draft classes, which can sometimes pay immediate dividends or blossom over time. What’s important is receiving an impact beyond just one season. For instance, we have no idea what careers will look like when players are drafted. In the last 20 years, nine quarterbacks have won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Just one — Ben Roethlisberger — has won a Super Bowl. That longevity of a player’s career, along with postseason performance, is equally important.

Today, I’m taking a look at five general managers who have done a fantastic job in putting together their respective teams. In fact, these would be my top candidates for Executive of the Year (listed in alphabetical order).

Nick Caserio

Houston Texans

Key acquisitions/signings: Caserio nabbed a ton of free agents last offseason who have paid off in big ways this fall, including offensive playmakers Devin Singletary, Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown, Robert Woods and even fullback Andrew Beck. His biggest priority was shoring up the offensive line for a soon-to-be drafted rookie quarterback, and he did so by extending Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil, trading for Shaq Mason and signing George Fant. Additional signings Sheldon Rankins, Jimmie Ward, Denzel Perryman and Shaquill Griffin have also keyed a big improvement on the defensive side from a year ago.

Draft outlook: The impact of this year’s Texans rookie class can’t be overstated. Caserio and the personnel department hit this haul out of the park. C.J. Stroud has exceeded expectations, becoming the clear front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year by elevating the play of Houston’s attack in every way. Trading a bundle for Will Anderson Jr. looks like it was a savvy move, given the rookie’s five sacks and the ability to consistently disrupt opposing offenses. While both have dealt with injuries in Year 1, second-rounder Juice Scruggs and sixth-rounder Jarrett Patterson have each played center for Houston. Tank Dell was absolutely sensational prior to breaking his leg earlier this month, racking up a team-best seven TD receptions in 11 games. Houston is also getting role production out of Dylan Horton, Henry To’oTo’o and Xavier Hutchinson.

Overview: The success Houston is enjoying in 2023 is chiefly the product of two straight strong draft classes. However, Caserio’s best offseason acquisition of all might be DeMeco Ryans, who has been exceptional in his first year as head coach. It’s extremely rare that a general manager gets to hire three head coaches in a three-year span. The only other instance of this during the Super Bowl era? Vikings GM Mike Lynn, who hired a new head coach each season from 1984 to ’86 (Les Steckel, Bud Grant, Jerry Burns). This season, we are seeing Caserio’s decisions over the last three years come together in alignment, putting the Texans in the playoff hunt for the first time since 2019.

Eric DeCosta

Baltimore Ravens

Key acquisitions/signings: DeCosta made several key moves in free agency, signing Odell Beckham Jr. and re-signing Geno Stone, who have been significant contributors this fall. DeCosta also made some under-the-radar moves on team-friendly contracts/short-term deals, including those signed by Nelson Agholor, Kyle Van Noy, Jadeveon Clowney and Ronald Darby, who was signed for $1.7 million after CB1 Marlon Humphrey’s injury in training camp. The biggest checked box of all, though, was finally agreeing to terms with Lamar Jackson, ending a years-long contract situation and locking in the 2019 MVP quarterback through 2027.

Draft outlook: Each of Baltimore’s first three draft picks this year — wide receiver Zay Flowers, linebacker Trenton Simpson and defensive end Tavius Robinson — have produced. Flowers, the No. 22 overall pick, has lived up to his draft standing early in his career, as he leads the team in targets (92), receptions (65) and receiving yards (680) through 15 weeks.

Overview: Baltimore boasts one of the more complete rosters in the NFL this season, and it’s paying off, as the Ravens currently own the best record (11-3) in the AFC. DeCosta and head coach John Harbaugh have ideal organizational stability that shouldn’t be overlooked or taken for granted. (I had the luxury of enjoying similar cohesion during my time with Bill Belichick in New England.) This game breeds paranoia and lack of trust because there are so many moving parts and so much pressure to achieve immediate results, so when you are partnered with someone you know you can trust (and someone who trusts you, too), you can’t put a value on that. When the partnership has that trust, it allows everyone in the entire organization to just do their jobs.

Chris Grier

Miami Dolphins

Key acquisitions/signings: Believing his team is in a Super Bowl window, Grier made a number of huge moves last offseason, including the re-signing of Raheem Mostert, who leads the league with 18 rushing touchdowns this season. Adding linebacker David Long has elevated Vic Fangio’s defense, while the trade for Jalen Ramsey has proven to be a huge acquisition; after starting the year on injured reserve following a training camp injury, Ramsey has returned to post three INTs in seven games.

Draft outlook: The Dolphins had just four draft picks in 2023 after giving up serious draft currency in the trades for Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb in 2022. Miami has gotten contributions from second-round DB Cam Smith and sixth-round WR Elijah Higgins, but the biggest story of this class is third-round RB De’Von Achane, who fits right into Mike McDaniel’s need-for-speed approach and has nine touchdowns in eight games.

Overview: The Dolphins’ ascension has been a gradual manifestation of several good years from Grier. His 2021 draft was very strong — a class that featured Jaylen Waddle, Jaelan Phillips and Jevon Holland — and the 2022 hiring of McDaniel and trades for Hill and Chubb have paid off. This year’s elite roster has created a window where success is required. The urgency is high, and the Dolphins are answering the bell thus far.

Brad Holmes

Detroit Lions

Key acquisitions/signings: Replacing Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift in the backfield with David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs has proven to be quite savvy. The Lions have also received key contributions from free-agent signings Graham Glasgow and Cameron Sutton, as well as the re-signing of Alex Anzalone, who leads the team with 108 tackles. I have always emphasized the importance of re-signing your own top players — that’s a critical part of free agency.

Draft outlook: Gibbs, LB Jack Campbell, TE Sam LaPorta and DB Brian Branch (all taken in the first two rounds this past April) have been exceptional as rookies, providing a number of game-changing plays in 2023. A couple examples: Branch’s pick-six of Patrick Mahomes in the Week 1 win at Kansas City; LaPorta and Gibbs’ five combined touchdowns in this past Saturday’s blowout of Denver. I also love that the Lions drafted quarterback Hendon Hooker, who tore his ACL last November while at Tennessee, in the third round. The young passer has the luxury of logging a redshirt year and could become the eventual replacement for Jared Goff. This rookie class has a chance to be special.

Overview: Hired in 2021 as part of a culture change, Holmes has routinely added the right pieces to build a playoff contender through free agency and, most importantly, the draft. A key component of Holmes’ success is that he has an aligned vision with head coach Dan Campbell. Holmes has put a premium on acquiring players who match the makeup and profile they collectively believe in.

Howie Roseman

Philadelphia Eagles

Key acquisitions/signings: The Eagles lost a host of starters from the 2022 NFC championship roster, but reloaded in free agency. Roseman re-signed instrumental pillars of the team like C Jason Kelce, DT Fletcher Cox, DE Brandon Graham and CB Darius Slay. Another key priority of the offseason: The Eagles and franchise quarterback Jalen Hurts agreed to terms on a five-year extension, solidifying the dual-threat playmaker as Philly’s long-term answer at the game’s most important position. I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the two key trades for D’Andre Swift (made during the draft) and Kevin Byard (made before October’s trade deadline).

Draft outlook: Job security and recent success allowed Roseman to operate in a way that may seem too risky for others — like trading up to select DT Jalen Carter (arguably the best defensive player in the draft, but someone who had character concerns) and then taking LB Nolan Smith (who was coming off a torn pec) later in the first round. Carter is currently the favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Meanwhile, Philly has also received role production from third-round OL Tyler Steen and mid-round DBs Sydney Brown and Kelee Ringo.

Overview: Roseman was the PFWA Executive of the Year in 2022, managing a team that wound up in the Super Bowl. He has done a great job of keeping the nucleus intact, re-signing several notable veterans who are equally important on the field and in the locker room. Too often, fans and analysts want sizzle with personnel moves, but the most important part of free agency is retaining the best players who are also the right players. Roseman has mastered this, while also adding key playmakers to fill certain roles.

NFL BEST

Matt Bowen of ESPN.com has picked the NFL’s best at 101 different skills. You can see them all here, we opted just to include the offensive player skills below:

So I picked out 101 different traits and named the best of the best in each spot based on what I’ve seen on tape this season and the underlying numbers. We went deep here, picking out everything from most accurate passer right down to the top holder on special teams. Let’s get rolling, starting with the quarterbacks.

Most accurate passer: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

Tagovailoa has completed 71% of his passes this season, the best in the league, and only 13.2% of his throws have been off target. His ability to deliver the ball with both accuracy and precise location is an ideal fit for Mike McDaniel’s pass game.

Strongest arm: Josh Allen, Bills

A high-RPM thrower, Allen can hammer the ball to every level of the field. He has 11 throws of at least 25 air yards this season, and his pass velocity is on display when throwing into tight windows (37.3% completion rate on tight-window throws, sixth in the NFL per NFL Next Gen Stats).

Best deep ball: C.J. Stroud, Texans

Stroud has completed 27 passes this season on throws of 20 or more air yards, tied for third in the league. He can drive it vertically to attack the top of the secondary or drop it in the bucket when targeting deep zone windows.

Best touch and timing: Brock Purdy, 49ers

Purdy’s ability to throw with pace and touch shows up pretty consistently on second-level throws, where he anticipates windows and delivers the ball with timing. He heads into Week 16 with a league-best Total QBR of 76.7, and his 69.8% completion percentage ranks second.

Best passing mechanics: Joe Burrow, Bengals

He’s the prototype for the position when focusing on repetitive mechanics. Burrow does a great job tying the upper and lower body together.

Best pocket footwork: Brock Purdy, 49ers

Refined and detailed, Purdy plays with light and controlled footwork in both the play-action and dropback passing game. His 77.4 QBR from inside the pocket is tops in the NFL.

Quickest release: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

With his quick and compact release, Tua gets the ball out with speed. His average time before pass sits at 2.38 seconds, the fastest in the league.

Best field vision: Kirk Cousins, Vikings

Cousins can read it out quickly, especially on throws to the middle of the field, where he registered a QBR of 89.0 and completed 73.9% of his passes before a season-ending Achilles injury.

Most instinctive passer: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

It’s the anticipation and second-reaction throwing ability that stands out for me here. Mahomes has a rare feel for finding open receivers late in the play. His 77.0 QBR outside the pocket speaks to his ability to rely on his instincts and make things happen.

Best decision-maker: Dak Prescott, Cowboys

One season after tying for the league-lead in interceptions (15), Prescott has seven through 14 games (tied for sixth-fewest). He also has a Total QBR of 72.7 this season, second-best in the league, and he’s being smart with the ball, especially in critical game moments.

Best pocket presence: Joe Burrow, Bengals

It’s the poise and mobility here. No one is better at managing a muddy pocket than Burrow. He keeps his eyes up and moves to reset the throwing window.

Best off-platform passer: Lamar Jackson, Ravens

I nearly picked Mahomes here — he can throw from any platform and make highlight-reel plays — but it’s Jackson this season. His second-reaction skills to extend plays and create outside of structure really pop.

Top dual-threat: Lamar Jackson, Ravens

Jackson has 741 rushing yards this season, including five TDs. And 372 of them have come on designed carries, at a 5.8 per-attempt clip. He’s a sudden mover with elite body control and the straight-line juice to produce on the ground.

Best scrambler: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

Mahomes has a great feel for when to pull the ball down and extend plays with his legs. He has rushed for 354 yards on scramble attempts this season and converted a league-best 21 first downs there.

Toughest QB: Matthew Stafford, Rams

This was an easy choice for me, as Stafford will hang in the pocket and play through injury. He’s a warrior who has taken 69 hits this season (12th-most among QBs).

Most competitive QB: Jalen Hurts, Eagles

Hurts is a stone-cold competitor, and that shows up in pivotal game moments. He has a 53.5 QBR in the fourth quarter or overtime of one-score games this season, eighth-best in the league.

Fastest rusher: De’Von Achane, Dolphins

With 4.3 speed, Achane is a home run hitter in the Miami backfield. He has two touchdown runs of 65 or more yards this season, and both plays rank among the NFL’s six fastest top speeds for ball carriers this season (21.8 and 22 miles per hour, NFL Next Gen Stats).

Most explosive rusher: Raheem Mostert, Dolphins

A rapid accelerator with straight-line acceleration, Mostert has 28 rushes of 10 or more yards this season, third in the league.

Most powerful rusher: Derrick Henry, Titans

Henry has rushed for 460 yards after first contact this season (second in the league), and he’s a freight train on the tracks. There are still defenders making business decisions when facing him, too.

Best contact balance: David Montgomery, Lions

With a powerful lower half and the body control to absorb contact, Montgomery can shed tacklers at the point of attack. He has averaged 2.1 yards per carry after first contact, which ranks seventh in the league.

Most sudden rusher: Bijan Robinson, Falcons

An all-purpose playmaker, Robinson has the stop/start ability to slice through pursuit angles. He has 24 rushes of 10 or more yards in his rookie season, the fifth-most in the league.

Most elusive rusher: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers

McCaffrey, who leads the league with 1,292 yards rushing, can make defenders miss in tight quarters, and he’s an explosive-play threat in the open field. His 38 runs for 10 or more yards lead the NFL, and he’s averaging 3.2 yards before contact per rush (fourth among RBs).

Best rushing vision/instincts: Alvin Kamara, Saints

An extremely talented and balanced mover, Kamara’s ability to find open daylight is still the best in the league.

Best ball security as ball carrier: Latavius Murray, Bills

Murray has yet to put the ball on the ground this season as a rusher. He has only two fumbles on 933 offensive touches since 2018, and neither were lost. That’s impressive ball security for a downhill runner.

Best receiving back: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers

McCaffrey’s pass-catching traits are maximized in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. He has caught 57 of 68 targets for 509 yards and seven touchdowns this season. And he has now gone over 4,000 receiving yards in his career. That’s elite dual-threat ability.

Best pass-protecting back: Tony Pollard, Cowboys

I like Pollard here due to his physicality at the point of attack, along with his willingness to take on second- and third-level blitzers in pass protection. He’s another key part of the Cowboys’ production in the pass game this season.

Best route runner: Justin Jefferson, Vikings

Injuries have limited Jefferson to just 45 receptions this season, but his refinement and detail in the route tree allows him to manipulate coverage. There’s a reason Jefferson posted over 1,400 receiving yards in each of his first three pro seasons.

Fastest pass-catcher: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins

The most dynamic offensive player in the league since Randy Moss, Hill is a consistent big-play threat due to his 4.2 speed. Hill has 26 receptions that gained at least 20 yards this season (nine touchdowns), the most in the NFL. And looking at the 12 fastest top speeds for ball-carriers this season, Hill shows up four times, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Most explosive pass-catcher: DK Metcalf, Seahawks

It’s the straight-line power and explosive movement ability with Metcalf, who is averaging 16.8 yards per reception, third-highest among wide receivers. He can stretch defenses vertically or turn a three-step concept into a house call.

Most physical pass-catcher: A.J. Brown, Eagles

Brown uses his 226-pound frame to play through contact at all three levels of the field. There’s a true physical element to his game, and he’s more than willing to work the middle of the field. His 156 receiving yards after first contact rank sixth.

Most sudden pass-catcher: Stefon Diggs, Bills

A dynamic mover with electric footspeed, Diggs can set up defenders within the route stem or after the catch.

Most elusive pass-catcher: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys

Slippery after the catch, Lamb can weave his way through traffic while still playing at top speed. He has 24 receptions of 20 or more yards this season, the second-most in the NFL behind Hill.

Best hands: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions

St. Brown, who works the high traffic areas of the field, has a drop rate of 1.5% over 133 targets this season. For his career, he has just five drops on 398 targets.

Best receiving instincts: Travis Kelce, Chiefs

Kelce’s ability to identify coverages — both pre- and post-snap — puts him in a position to convert routes and find open grass. The Chiefs’ tight end sits at 924 receiving yards on the season, and he appears on track for his eighth straight season with over 1,000.

Best at getting open: Keenan Allen, Chargers

Allen is a nuanced route runner who can make himself available to the quarterback. He has high-level coverage awareness. Allen has 108 catches on the season and has produced over 10,000 receiving yards in his career. He ranks No. 1 in ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics’ open score (91).

Best on 50-50 balls: George Pickens, Steelers

Pickens has caught five of 13 targets on vertical tight-window throws this season, with 13 of 25 over his two years in the league (NFL Next Gen Stats). He tracks the ball vertically and adjusts to finish plays at the catch point.

Best seam-stretcher: Mark Andrews, Ravens

Andrews has a great feel for finding the seam void against three-deep coverage. He can widen safeties within the stem and use his frame and catch radius to create leverage against man schemes. His 12.1 yards per reception ranks fourth among tight ends with at least 40 catches this season. (Andrews is likely out for the season with a left ankle injury.)

Best body control: Davante Adams, Raiders

An extremely fluid mover with high-end route running skills, Adams has the body control to separate off the release and sink in and out of his cuts. He’s on pace for another 1,000-yard receiving season, which would be his fourth straight.

Best toe-tapper: DeVonta Smith, Eagles

Smith is highly skilled both near the boundary and when working the back line of the end zone. He can get the feet down or drag the toe to finish the process of the catch. His four toe-tap catches over the past two seasons are tied for the 11th-most in the NFL.

Best after the catch: Deebo Samuel, 49ers

Samuel has the physical traits to run through contact, as well as the ball carrier vision and instant juice to cut down defensive angles in the open field. He averages 9.1 yards after the catch per reception (960 total), and his 89 YAC score ranks No. 1 in the league in ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics.

Best ball security as pass-catcher: Mike Evans, Buccaneers

Evans has 354 receptions since the start of the 2019 season — and he hasn’t fumbled once in that time. He simply doesn’t give up the ball.

Top in-motion pass-catcher: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins

Hill is deployed on motion to create leverage and free access off the ball in McDaniel’s system in Miami. He has been in motion on 224 routes and 70 catches this season, both tops in the NFL. On plays with Hill in motion, he has scored nine touchdowns.

Best blocking receiver: Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers

Aiyuk will win as a blocker on the perimeter — you can see his competitive play style there. He gives a lot of effort to help spring explosive plays, working to the third level to block defenders down the field.

Best in-line blocking tight end: George Kittle, 49ers

One of the most complete players in the league, Kittle has notched 55 receptions and six touchdowns this season, but he’s nasty as a blocker, too. In the run game and in pass pro, Kittle uses his technique and physical presence to win. He has a 92.5% pass block win rate over his career.

2024 DRAFT

With the help of some anonymous scouting types, Matt Miller of ESPN.com looks at the QBs in the 2024 draft:

How would you rate this QB class compared to those in recent years?

Before the 2023 college football season kicked off, the 2024 quarterback class was widely billed as special, thanks not only to rare top-tier talents but also what was perceived to be very good depth. That opinion has shifted some after four months of play.

“This is a good quarterback class, but it’s not as great as some people say,” said an AFC East scout with over 15 years of experience.

An AFC general manager went further, saying, “It’s good at the top, but it’s a bad year to need a guy after the first round. We could see four or five in the first round, one or two in the second and then none until Day 3.”

The lack of depth certainly sticks out. We watched 14 quarterbacks get drafted in 2023 — up from nine the year before — and a record 12 of them were taken before the end of Round 5. You won’t see that in 2024, thanks to injuries, unrealized expectations and a changing reality in college football as players maximize eligibility under name image likeness (NIL) and transfer rules.

I personally have four quarterbacks ranked in the top 20 overall: Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy. Then I have second-round grades on Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. before a drop-off to Tulane’s Michael Pratt (fourth-round grade). Eleven signal-callers make my top 300 right now, which is lighter than the 15 I had in my final top 300 rankings in each of the previous two drafts. And one NFL general manager actually told me that his team’s list is even shorter than mine.

“We have seven guys [ranked] right now, assuming none of the underclassmen surprise us. And that’s why there will be a rush up the board to get the good ones.”

Another NFL exec who has been in the industry for over 20 years tried to put it in historical perspective: “This is a better class than the last few years, but the 2020 class was better. And I would have said that based on pre-draft grades of those guys and not the results we’ve seen. [Joe] Burrow compares well to Williams. [Justin] Herbert to Maye. You could say McCarthy is this year’s Tua [Tagovailoa]. Jayden Daniels is the Jalen Hurts. But 2020 had Jordan Love, too. I don’t see that fifth guy this year.”

So what happened to the depth we thought this class had?

Many scouts point to NIL, the COVID-19 extra year of eligibility and new transfer rules — players can now stay in college and make money while continuing to develop.

“I’ve already seen three or four guys I had Day 3 developmental grades on say they’re staying in school or transferring,” said an NFC West scout who has closely evaluated this class.

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 season essentially did not count toward a player’s four years of collegiate eligibility, which permits draft prospects like Washington State’s Cameron Ward to enter the transfer portal as a four-year starter with one year of eligibility left. Instead of being an intriguing midround draft option, Ward is now expected to play another season of college ball.

Plus there is the opportunity for players to capitalize on their marketing potential with NIL money flowing. Nebraska coach Matt Rhule recently opined that a starting Power 5 quarterback in the transfer portal could cost $1 million to $2 million. Consider that San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, the leading NFL MVP candidate, makes an average annual salary of $934,252 as a 2022 seventh-rounder on his rookie deal. For those QBs not guaranteed to be a first-round draft pick, the college money pull is strong.

Despite some early-round buzz, Georgia’s Carson Beck announced Monday he would be returning to school for 2024. And in conversations with more than a dozen evaluators, two more quarterbacks were often mentioned as guys expected to join him — though nothing is official. Texas’ Quinn Ewers was also getting some first-round buzz but could use more experience. And then there is Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. The son of NFL Hall of Famer and current Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders was a red-hot name throughout September and October as he took the college football world by storm. He was seen as a potential top-10 pick early on — he was even my No. 2-ranked quarterback for a time — before Colorado’s lack of depth caught up to the team and Sanders suffered a season-ending back injury.

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“I had no idea he could spin it like that,” said an AFC scouting director of Sanders. “You saw him against small-school dudes before Colorado, but he came in dealing, and his poise in the pocket really impressed me. He would be in the QB3 conversation this year if he came out.”

Teams haven’t totally started digging into the tape of the 2025 class, but after some conversations around the league, the way-too-early 2025 ranking of these three is Sanders, Beck and Ewers.

How many quarterbacks will go in Round 1?

It’s a hard question to get a solid answer on in the middle of December, one month before the NFL’s deadline for underclassmen to declare for the upcoming draft (Jan. 15). But the general consensus is that four or perhaps five quarterbacks will get picked in the first round.

“Williams, Maye, McCarthy, Daniels … and Bo Nix does some nice things, too. I think you look at those five solidly,” said a general manager for a team potentially in the quarterback market.

An AFC East evaluator who I spoke to cut that list down further, putting the number at three, maybe four. “I don’t personally have a first-round grade on Daniels, but he’s in the early second for me, and teams will probably over-draft him.”

Since the NFL implemented the rookie wage scale in 2011, teams have placed an even higher value on drafting quarterbacks in the first round because the first four years — with an option for a fifth year — are cost-controlled and very affordable. A quarterback who previously might have been a second-rounder is now typically drafted on Day 1 to ensure that extra season of low-cost play from the most important position on the team.

An AFC scout who has watched all of this class’s top quarterbacks spoke to that trend: “It used to be there’d be two or three guys. Now there are like four to five guys, a drop-off, and then some dudes who project as QB3 types. So comparing this [class] to even 2015 or 2016 isn’t fair, because back then teams weren’t elevating second- or third-round quarterbacks into the first round. Now we do.”

Nix, a fifth-year senior, is the most polarizing of the group. He has started 60 games in his college career, throwing 108 touchdown passes to 26 interceptions. He has excellent touch and timing on underneath throws, and he works the flats like a pro. But Nix lacks elite arm strength and struggled at Auburn before transferring and finding success at Oregon.

“I think you could safely say four quarterbacks, with Nix in that Will Levis territory as an early Round 2 guy,” said an AFC South scout who has studied the quarterbacks in this class for two years.

What about Penix? Scouts are split on the Washington transfer (from Indiana) following a great 2023 season. He’s elusive in the pocket and throws a beautiful deep ball, layering passes into the hands of his talented receivers no matter the route.

But Penix also has injury concerns that must be vetted at the combine — he has two ACL tears and two shoulder injuries in his profile that leave question marks the other top quarterbacks don’t have. How his medicals come back could mean the difference between a top-40 draft position and something closer to a Round 3 grade.

“I see him as a Round 3 guy … but that doesn’t mean he’ll be drafted in the third round. I could see a team that misses out on the top guys grabbing him early Round 2,” said a former NFL scouting director who now consults with teams.

My most recent mock draft didn’t feature Nix or Penix in Round 1, but it did have four quarterbacks drafted in the top seven selections — which would be the fastest that four have come off the board in the common draft era. And the prevailing wisdom among scouts is Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Nix and Penix all have a shot to be an NFL starter in 2024.

Is Williams a lock at No. 1?

The USC junior hasn’t officially declared for the draft yet, though he has opted out of the DirecTV Holiday Bowl. But the assumption around the league is Williams will declare before the January deadline.

Williams has been projected as the top overall quarterback in the class basically since he came out of high school and committed to coach Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma. He transferred to USC in 2022 when Riley took the coaching job there and didn’t disappoint, winning the Heisman Trophy that season. Over two years at USC, Williams has 72 passing touchdowns, 21 rushing touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

“He’s close to a lock [to go No. 1],” said one NFL general manager. “I wouldn’t say he’s a lock to the level Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow were, but he’s more of a lock than Bryce Young or Baker Mayfield.”

Williams has been called a “generational talent” by many NFL scouts and has received comparisons to Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and a young Russell Wilson. Quarterbacks with his arm strength, ability throw from multiple arm angles/platforms, field vision and mobility are rare — which is why he’s the overwhelming favorite among NFL scouts to be the first pick. His ability as a creator stands out most. His 82.3 Total QBR is good for 11th in the nation this season, and his 11 rushing touchdowns rank fifth among quarterbacks.

Calling anyone a “lock” is always risky, but in a poll of 10 scouts and front office personnel, everyone believed Williams will go No. 1. And I’ve personally had him as the top prospect in this class for more than two years.

That said, some scouts wonder if there is still room for movement at the top of the board. After all, USC lost five games in 2023, and Williams was sacked 33 times and had eight fumbles.

“Williams is the top guy right now, but things can change once the interviews start and the combine happens,” said an AFC South scout who has seen Williams play live this season. “Remember last year, Young was a ‘lock,’ then the combine happened and C.J. Stroud killed it and Anthony Richardson killed it, and the narrative changed for a while. That could happen with Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels or J.J. McCarthy in the next four months.”

Maye — who has declared — is more than just a consolation prize to teams that miss out on Williams. At 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, he has an arm like Herbert’s and uses his mobility to pick up tough yards when pressed outside the pocket. He can be raw with ball placement and lower-body mechanics, but his best throws are jaw-droppers.

And the reality is Maye grades out higher than many recent class’s QB1s. Let’s go back a decade. I have Maye graded higher than Young (QB1 in 2023), Kenny Pickett (2022), Kyler Murray (2019), Mayfield (2018), Mitch Trubisky (2017) and Blake Bortles (2014). He is a legitimate franchise quarterback, and even with Williams being the clear favorite to go first, there will be many teams jockeying for position to select him.

“For Maye or someone else to take that top spot [from Williams], I think interviews are important, but it’s also a matter of preference and scheme. What offense are you running? What division are you in? Maye is much bigger than Williams, and that alone could swing a decision,” said an AFC North area scout. “In our division, size could be the tiebreaker if you have them rated closely — especially when you look at how Bryce Young is struggling [in Carolina].”

Which quarterback has the most impressive trait?

Scouts had a lot of different answers here. Williams’ field vision. Maye’s second-effort mobility. McCarthy’s efficiency. But it was Daniels’ deep ball that was mentioned the most.

“The dude’s touch down the field is really special,” said an NFC area scout.

Daniels — who officially declared for the draft on Monday — first showed off his deep accuracy during his freshman year at Arizona State, and it has developed very well over the course of his college career. In 2023, Daniels threw 20 touchdown passes — and zero interceptions — on passes over 20 air yards. That’s six more than anyone else, and 11 of them were aired out 30-plus yards downfield.

“A lot of these [QBs] have special traits, but his deep ball should be glorified,” said another NFC scout who covers the SEC.

Daniels’ ability to layer the ball over the top of defenders and how well he leads LSU’s wide receivers — including top prospects Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. — into space is truly elite. His 99.6 QBR throwing to vertical routes led the nation this season.

Who is the biggest QB riser in the class so far?

It’s Daniels again. In fact, no player, regardless of position, has risen more on my board this season than the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner. He’s now No. 8 overall for me.

Over the summer, Daniels was receiving Day 3 grades from National Scouting Report and BLESTO Scouting Services, which NFL teams staff for early scouting assessments. One of those area scouts involved said in a text, “Daniels was a fun Day 3-type guy who had some nice traits but hadn’t put it all together. Well, he put it together this year.”

An LSU staffer told me that Daniels was the hardest worker during the team’s summer practices and workouts, dedicated to not only adding strength to his lean 6-foot-4 frame but also improving his play from within the pocket. Coaches emphasized keeping his eyes up and down the field. It paid off, with Daniels throwing for 40 touchdown passes and four interceptions while completing 72.2% of his passes.

The class’s QB3 was something of a debate all season, with Ewers, McCarthy and Sanders all getting some consideration there. But for now, Daniels is secure as my third-ranked quarterback. He continued to improve each week, and it doesn’t hurt that he was the best QB in college football while battling it out in the competitive SEC.

“It’s not crazy to think there are teams that will have Daniels as QB2,” said an NFC general manager. “If you are building a team where the quarterback being mobile is a priority, Daniels could easily be your pick over Maye.”

I spoke to another NFL exec late last week about the quarterbacks, and after 45 minutes of tossing around names, he said, “I think you like Daniels more than you realize!” His game fits well with the NFL, and yes, there is a path to him rising to QB2.

Is there someone whom teams are higher on than consensus?

“You know who’s going to go higher than anyone thinks?” asked an AFC East scout last week via text. “J.J. McCarthy.”

The Michigan quarterback is loved by scouts who have studied his game and have seen the junior passer throw in person. McCarthy is efficient; he has posted a QBR of 89.2, good for third in the nation, while throwing 19 touchdown passes to four interceptions.

“I think a lot of people haven’t done a deep dive on McCarthy yet,” said a scout who covers the Michigan area, “but when they do, he’s going to rise. He would dominate an event like the Senior Bowl.”

The main knock on McCarthy’s game this year has more to do with the Wolverines than his skill set. Michigan’s scheme doesn’t ask for a lot of pure passing from him. The Wolverines run the ball early and often, with McCarthy attempting only 287 passes this season (77th in the FBS) and averaging 19.3 per game against their three ranked opponents toward the end of the season. He didn’t attempt a single pass in the second half of a 24-15 win over Penn State in mid-November!

And because Michigan throws only 44.5% of the time (124th out of 133 teams), McCarthy hasn’t been able to showcase his passing ability to a high level. That has led to questions the junior simply can’t answer on tape. He must rely on the pre-draft process, should he declare for the draft. As of now, McCarthy sits at No. 19 overall on my board, but he could absolutely rise as we get closer to draft time.

“To me, he’s an athletic Kirk Cousins,” said the Michigan region scout.

Who is the best Day 3 option?

Tulane’s Pratt is the top Day 3 quarterback on most boards, and he is the only passer I have ranked between No. 50 and No. 175 overall. He threw 22 touchdown passes and five interceptions this season while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he recently opted out of the Military Bowl against Virginia Tech.

“Pratt is a high-end backup option, but he’s very solid as a total-field passer, accurate and has enough mobility to move around some. Oddly enough, I think he’s a similar player to what Jake Browning is doing in Cincinnati right now,” said an NFC South scout.

South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler is the next-best option. The former Oklahoma quarterback transferred to South Carolina before the 2022 season and has had marginal success. At 6 feet and 216 pounds, he loves to roll out and fire deep shots. That has created some highlight-worthy plays but an equal number of turnovers. Sure, he’s a playmaker with 93 total touchdowns in his four years of college, but 32 interceptions will bring pause. And his 20 picks over the past two seasons are concerning enough to knock him down to the middle of Day 3 despite fantastic mobility and arm strength.

Still, an NFC South scout cautioned to get ready for the rise of Rattler. “Rattler, two years ago, looked like a future first-rounder but just didn’t develop at Oklahoma. But watch him at the Senior Bowl, and that arm strength will have you thinking he should be rated much higher than you have him right now. Guaranteed.”

In an NFL where demand at quarterback always exceeds supply, there is a possibility that as many as 12 teams could be seeking a starter-level competitor for their quarterback room in April. So if someone misses out on Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Nix and Penix, then some late-round QBs could get picked earlier than expected.

Like Purdy, Pratt has five letters and starts with P.

Michael Pratt started 43 games at Tulane with a 27-16 record.  He was a 66% passer this year.  He has rushed for nearly 800 yards and 14 TDs over the last two seasons. He’s bigger than Brock Purdy at 6-3, 220 pounds.

This from William Yanish of First Round Report:

Pratt absolutely has the moxie and competitiveness to lead a much bigger program to the promised land. Placing him under center on an Alabama or Georgia team would set off some fireworks. Pratt uses every weapon at his disposal. This kid really has a chance to be special.

He is the closest to the next Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers that I have seen. The similarities between these two stars are uncanny. Pratt will be in the league for a long time.

The 2024 NFL Draft will be a pick-your-poison type of QB quandary. There will be some QBs that slide, including Pratt. That’s okay though, because that will relieve some of the pressure, like it did for Purdy.

We shall see.