| Dianna Russini of The Athletic points out one time the “experts” in the media were right: @DMRussiniBen Johnson and Mike Vrabel were the two hottest names on the coaching carousel this past offseason. After 13 weeks, the Bears and Patriots are the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences. A data point in favor of the Patriots from Jeff Howe: @jeffphowePlayoff seedings, including each team’s record against current playoff teams: AFC1. Patriots 2-02. Broncos 1-23. Jaguars 2-24. Ravens 1-25. Chargers 1-26. Colts 2-17. Bills 2-1 NFC1. Bears 1-12. Rams 6-23. Eagles 3-24. Bucs 2-45. Seahawks 1-36. Packers 0-17. 49ers 2-3 We were told the 49ers had an easy schedule, but thanks to their NFC West brethren, they have five games against playoff teams. Current AFC playoff teams have played 19 games against their fellow playoff teams (11-8 record). Only the Jaguars as many as 4. Current NFC playoff teams have played 31 such games (15-16). Only the Bears and Packers less than 4.- – -This on the Week 14 slate from Evan Kaplan: @EpKapThere are 7 teams whose playoff chance will swing by at least 25% with a win or loss in Week 14 according to ESPN Analytics. Steelers (65% > 18%)Ravens (76% > 31%)Chiefs (56% > 14%)Texans (76% > 37%)Lions (57% > 23%)Colts (88% > 58%)Cowboys (35% > 8%) |
| NFC NORTH |
| CHICAGOThe Bears had their coming out party last Friday, finally meeting a “good” team – and they beat the Eagles. Mike Sando of The Athletic studies their ceiling: The sight of Chicago Bears coach Ben Johnson pulling off his shirt and gyrating in a jubilant postgame locker room, surrounded by delirious players, stands alone as the No. 1 visual from this 2025 NFL season. How fun that must have been for an organization that in recent years has watched from afar while rival NFC North coaches Kevin O’Connell and Dan Campbell exulted with their players almost weekly. What would the Bears have given to have one of those coaches? They wouldn’t trade their guy now. “It was awesome,” a former head coach who would never take off his shirt in the locker room said. “You gotta be yourself. It’s perfect for them because they are high energy right now, and they are believing.” Should we join the Bears in that belief? The Pick Six column for Week 13 salutes the current No. 1 seed in the NFC, a 9-3 Bears team that has surpassed its preseason Vegas win total (8.5) with five games to play. Saluting is not anointing, but there’s no need to rush. Instead of dismissing the Bears as true contenders, which is easily done right now, we should consider their trajectory under Johnson. Who knows how much better this team can become by season’s end? 1. The Bears are overachieving in the win column, and it’s great for their development. Underneath, vital signs are encouraging. Three positive long-term indicators are attributable directly to Johnson. • Johnson has Williams’ long-term growth in mind: If Johnson wanted to maximize second-year quarterback Caleb Williams’ production in the short term, he could lean into college concepts, as so many play callers are lauded for doing. Instead, Johnson has cut the Bears’ percentage of run-pass options into the low single digits while ramping up play-action and pre-snap motion. Johnson has brought the system he ran in Detroit to Chicago with its wide-zone running game and well-sequenced play-action. He has implemented a structure that is forcing Williams to learn the pro game without robbing the quarterback of his flair for improvisation. There are no guarantees it will work, but there are positive signs. “The No. 1 thing that Ben Johnson is doing with Caleb is teaching him how to play quarterback,” a veteran play caller said. “He is not doing anything different with his throwing motion or anything like that. What is the down and distance? If it’s second-and-3, we don’t need to throw the fade here.” Williams still leads the league in average time to throw (3.08 seconds), but he’s playing smarter situationally. Last season, he took 22 sacks on 78 plays when holding the ball longer than 3.5 seconds and up to 5 seconds. He has taken four sacks on 54 such plays this season. (When holding the ball longer than five seconds, he has a similar sack rate to 2024, with an uptick in incomplete passes.) These are positive tradeoffs and a leading reason the Bears rank 10th in offensive EPA per play, up from 26th last season. • Johnson already has a strong ground game. Some offensive coaches fall in love with the pass. Johnson’s Bears rushed for 281 yards against Philadelphia, most against a Vic Fangio-coordinated defense in 248 total games since Week 7 of 2005. “Ben threw the ball in the first quarter, and then he said, ‘Am I nuts throwing in the wind with Caleb Williams when I can just run the ball with two backs?’” a coach from another team said. “He adjusted, and that was the impressive part. Vic wants to sit in the two-high shell and roll guys down late. Ben ran in the A-gaps a lot, so it was quick hitting, and the safeties can’t help on the inside fits.” It wasn’t a fluke. Chicago ranks among the NFL’s top five in rushing yards, explosive rushing rate, rushing success rate and rate of running back rushes from under center. The identity is clear. The Bears ranked outside the top 20 in all those categories last season. Their rushing success rate (percentage of rushes that increase their chances for scoring, as determined by EPA) would be the best for a Chicago team since at least 2000, per TruMedia. Upgrading the offensive line with expensive additions explains some of the improvement. • Johnson brings welcome personality to Chicago: There’s a competitive arrogance to Johnson that works for him because it’s clear he knows what he is doing, and it’s not forced. No Bears coach since Mike Ditka has projected anything quite like it. Johnson has the Bears looking like a team that makes its breaks instead of living with them. All that said, questions remain. The defense has fallen from 12th last season to 23rd this season in EPA per play. Three years of building the defensive personnel for former coach Matt Eberflus might not be ideal for new coordinator Dennis Allen, who plays different fronts and asks more from linebackers in coverage. All signs point to the Bears’ record being better than the team itself. Chicago’s point differential (+6) is third-worst among 376 teams with nine victories in their first 12 games, per Pro Football Reference. The Bears are tied for third in the NFL win rate (.750) but only 16th in average point margin. Luck plays some role in the Bears going 4-1 in games decided by three or fewer points (their record was 1-5 in such games last season). The Bears rank lower when we adjust their point margin to the opponent. Chicago’s plus-9 margin against Philadelphia was the second-best by any team against the Eagles this season, but that was not the norm. If we take the Bears’ point margin rank against every team they have faced this season, the average would be 7.1. That is tied with Miami for 22nd in the league, well behind Green Bay (4.8, which is seventh — a lower number is better) and Detroit (5.4, which is 10th). Winning at an inflated clip has shielded the team from incessant week-to-week discussion over Williams’ development, which benefits all involved, especially after so much was said and written about Williams coming into the season. Every surplus victory works against Chicago becoming one of the harshest incubators in the league. |
| DETROITFrank Schwab of YahooSports.com on the tough road facing the Lions: Of the first seven teams to win 15 games in an NFL regular season, only two didn’t make the playoffs the following season. The 2008 New England Patriots went 11-5 without Tom Brady, who suffered a torn ACL in the opener, and missed the playoffs due to tiebreakers. Not too bad, just unlucky. The only real airball after a 15-win season was the 2016 Carolina Panthers, who went 6-10. Everyone else had double-digit wins. The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions are both in danger of joining the group of 15-win teams to miss the playoffs a season later. Plenty has been said about the Chiefs and the possibility of them missing the playoffs. The Lions potentially missing out snuck up on everyone, but it became real on Thanksgiving. A loss to the Green Bay Packers pushed the Lions back to 7-5 in a crowded NFC wild-card race. DVOA’s projection has the Lions’ chances to make the playoffs at exactly 50%. It’s a coin flip if one of the NFL’s best teams over the past two seasons will even be in the postseason. Detroit’s remaining schedule isn’t great. Up next is a game against a confident Cowboys team on Thursday night. Then Detroit plays at the Rams. There’s still a game at Chicago to end the season, and Jared Goff’s drop in production for outdoor games has been discussed often. The Lions will have a challenge to go 3-2 to reach 10 wins, and 10-7 isn’t guaranteed to get them a playoff spot. Missing the playoffs wouldn’t mean that the Lions’ chance to make a Super Bowl is over with this core. It’s still a fairly young team full of elite players. But it would be a wasted season of everyone’s prime. And a stunning result after a dominant regular season a year ago. PlayoffStatus.com has the Lions at 26% to make the playoffs which we think is more realistic than 50%. ESPN.com says 44%. |
| NFC EAST |
| DALLASA good attitude from DT KENNY CLARK on the eve of the big game in Detroit. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: The Cowboys have looked like a different team since returning from their bye week and three straight wins, including back-to-back victories over the Eagles and Chiefs, have created the kind of momentum that could carry them into a playoff run. Defensive tackle Kenny Clark knows that momentum can only carry them so far, however. The Cowboys can’t afford to take their foot off the gas after a 3-5-1 start to the season and they can’t expect the good play of the last three weeks to just carry over to Thursday night’s game against the Lions. “It’s a lot of good momentum, but it don’t mean nothing if we don’t go out and handle business,” Clark said, via the team’s website. “We gotta wash all that away, what we did. It’s week-to-week, and we got to just keep on proving ourselves, and getting ourselves out of the hole.” The Lions aren’t riding the same wave after losing three of their last five games, but they have the same motivation as the Cowboys heading into Thursday night. The loser of the game will have a very difficult path to a playoff berth, so Clark and company should expect plenty of fight as they try to show that the midseason change of fortunes is a lasting one in Dallas. |
| NFC SOUTH |
| CAROLINAWill the Panthers extend QB BRYCE YOUNG? That’s on the mind of Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com: Graziano: I covered the Panthers this past weekend and asked a bunch of their people about Young. And from what I can tell, they still believe in him. They’ve used 10 different offensive line combinations this season and have a young receiver group, so the team seems to think the ups and downs can be blamed on more than just the quarterback. Young was excellent Sunday in beating the Rams, but he was far less than that against the 49ers the Monday night before. The week before that, he set a single-game franchise record for passing yards in a victory over the Falcons. It’s hard to really know what the long-term outlook is when the swings are this wild week to week. The Panthers will have to decide by the first week of May whether to pick up his fifth-year option for 2027. I expect them to do that because the cost will be reasonable (around $26.5 million), but then the question becomes what to do after that. Fowler: This feels like the classic wait-and-see situation. Despite showing flashes, Young hasn’t progressed beyond midtier starter status. The Panthers have overachieved a bit this season and low-key have viewed 2026 as their true jump year. Whether they want to allocate heavy resources to a Young extension during a crucial offseason remains to be seen. Picking up his fifth-year option and having him play at least a portion of his fourth season on his rookie deal is a sensible play. But Young has two things going for him. He’s proving to be clutch, orchestrating four fourth-quarter comebacks and five game-winning drives this season. And he’s showing touch on intermediate-to-deep passes, completing 30 passes of 20 or more yards. So he’s giving the front office something to think about long and hard. Should the Panthers engage, what’s the sweet spot on his market, Dan? Eleven quarterbacks are making at least $50 million per year. Graziano: So, if Young is open to an extension in the 2026 offseason, I think it would have to be lucrative to make it worth his while. If the Panthers pick up the fifth-year option, they will have him under contract for two years at around $33 million, so it might be tempting for him take a below-market deal just to improve on that. It might make some sense to do a short-term bridge deal like the one the Packers did with Jordan Love after Year 3 (when he really hadn’t played much, because Aaron Rodgers was in front of him). But I don’t see what Young’s incentive would be to do an extension next spring or summer that averages less than $50 million per year. The Jaguars extended Trevor Lawrence at $55 million per year after Year 3, and we still don’t know if he’s their long-term answer. Teams do wild things when it comes to quarterbacks because they’re so scared about having to find one. So unless the Panthers are willing to give Young top-QB market value, he could bet on himself and bet on the team being incentivized to continue to improve around him. Then he could play out the 2026 season and put himself in position to negotiate a bigger deal after that, when the Panthers would have him for only one more year, which tilts the leverage Young’s way. Fowler: Teams are only as good as their quarterback options, and Young is easily the Panthers’ best. He also seems to have good rapport and chemistry with Canales and his staff. But don’t be surprised if teams slightly shift their thinking when it comes to paying quarterbacks and show some level of restraint. If you don’t have a bona fide top-10 guy, why pay obscene market prices so early? That’s an easy call if you have a Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, etc. But Miami (Tua Tagovailoa) and Arizona (Kyler Murray) are among teams saddled with bloated guaranteed money for good, but not great, quarterbacks. My point is that there’s no rush, barring both sides making concessions that work for them. I think Houston could be more inclined to pay Young’s draft mate, C.J. Stroud, early. He has higher-end traits as a passer.– – -Mike Sando sees less of owner David Tepper these days – and for the Panthers, less is more: It’s been a long time since Tepper was in the news for throwing a drink, overreaching behind the scenes, firing coaches quickly or doing anything else to make bad situations worse. In a development most would consider related, Carolina has a winning record (7-6) through 13 games for the first time since 2017, the season before Tepper purchased the team. Ownership matters, and while some who have worked in Carolina say they liked Tepper as a person, the way he ran the team created distractions. That has not been the case since Tepper put a new front office in place before last season. Players and coaches can improve. So can owners. “We went from seeing this guy five or six times the last few years during the season — tipping cups, doing whatever — to not seeing him at all,” an exec from another team said. “It is a huge improvement. He’s done a great job and deserves credit for it.” The Panthers, 31-28 upset winners over the previously 9-2 Rams in Week 13, can finish with a winning record for the first time since they were 11-5 in that final season before Tepper arrived. They’ll need to win at least twice more from a remaining schedule featuring New Orleans (road), Tampa Bay (home), Seattle (home) and Tampa Bay (road). With victories over Dallas, Green Bay and now Los Angeles, Carolina has beaten three teams that currently have winning records. The team had previously won once with Bryce Young at quarterback when facing teams that finished with winning records. Paradoxically, the team has also lost to Arizona and New Orleans. “Owners can improve,” an exec from another team said. “I’m sure the DeBartolos weren’t great right away when they took over the 49ers (in the late 1970s). Did (Chiefs owner) Clark Hunt get better when he gave all the power to Andy Reid? Sometimes, they get distracted by their other businesses.” This game against the Rams should excite Carolina for two main reasons. The Panthers won in the vision of their head coach, Dave Canales, a Carroll disciple. They had 40 rushes (35 by running backs), did not pass much (20 attempts), made explosive plays through the air (touchdowns of 35, 33 and 43 yards) and scored on defense. Young’s ability to complete passes in clutch situations, partly because he was well-protected against a strong Rams pass rush, was another positive marker. Young won third down, completing 6 of 8 passes for 86 yards and a touchdown in those situations. His third-down passer rating (149.0) was the best of his career. Jalen Coker’s return from injury was an under-the-radar key for a team that traded Adam Thielen with an eye toward the future. Coker scored a 33-yard touchdown on fourth-and-3 in the third quarter. He also caught a 10-yard pass for a first down on third-and-5 with 2:17 to play, enabling Carolina to run out the clock. “Canales has had two big wins, one against Green Bay, which was unbelievable, and then this one, which was huge,” another exec said. |
| TAMPA BAYTampa Bay’s offense has muddled through a series of injuries. Now, with the Saints coming to town and the Panthers looming for a pair of big games, they are putting the gang back together. The Buccaneers offense has been without wide receivers Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan for an extended stretch, but there’s some good news about both wideouts on Wednesday. Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reports that the team will designate Evans for return from injured reserve on Wednesday. They are also expected to do the same for McMillan. Evans has been out since fracturing his clavicle on October 20. He also missed time with a hamstring injury earlier in the year and has 14 catches for 140 yards and a touchdown on the season. McMillan has not played in the regular season as a result of a neck injury he suffered this summer. Both players will be able to practice with the team for the next 21 days and can be activated at any point in that window. If they aren’t activated, they won’t be able to play this season. RB BUCKY IRVING returned last week. |
| AFC WEST |
| KANSAS CITYIn a season with astounding stories, Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com says the ongoing struggles of the Chiefs tops them all: We know this has been a strange NFL season, but the fact that the Kansas City Chiefs might miss the playoffs only solidifies it. Unless the Chiefs win out — which Patrick Mahomes essentially said they needed to do last Thursday after their Thanksgiving Day loss to the Dallas Cowboys — they will almost certainly miss the playoffs. That’s unreal for a team that has played in the AFC Championship Game every year since Mahomes became a full-time starter in 2018, winning three Super Bowls in that span. The 6-6 Chiefs trail five teams in the AFC wild-card race, losing to three of them. That means even going undefeated the rest of the way might not get them into the playoffs. The playoffs without Mahomes? Talk about weird. The Chiefs also have injury issues as they prepare to navigate the final five games. They played the Cowboys game without right guard Trey Smith and then lost tackles Josh Simmons (who could go on injured reserve with a wrist injury) and Jawaan Taylor. Mahomes has been Superman at times in his career, but getting this team to the playoffs would be among his best achievements. It just doesn’t look like it will happen. The Chiefs are down to No. 16 in my Power Rankings this week, which is amazing to see after having them in the top 10 for most of the past eight years — and most of the time in the top five. Another team that needs to do some work is the Detroit Lions. Many picked them to be a Super Bowl team before the season, and now they are 7-5 after losing to the Packers last Thursday. They are down to 15 in my rankings this week. How many people picked a Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl before the season? Now we have the Eagles getting mauled in the run game, the Rams losing at Carolina and the Jaguars in first place in the AFC South. What in the hell? The weird season just keeps getting weirder by the week, but the Chiefs missing the playoffs would be the strangest thing of all. |
| AFC NORTH |
| CLEVELANDTracking DE MYLES GARRETT from Daniel Oyefusi at ESPN.com: Since entering the NFL as the No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft, Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett has perennially been one of the league’s best players. And since the 2025 season started, the Denver Broncos have been among the league’s best teams at getting after opposing quarterbacks. This season, both Garrett and the Broncos are on the brink of the NFL record books. Garrett has recorded a career-high 19 sacks in 12 games, including 15 in the past six. With five games remaining in the regular season, Garrett is four sacks away from breaking the single-season record of 22.5 that is shared by Pro Football Hall of Famer Michael Strahan and current Pittsburgh Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt. Garrett’s 19 sacks are more than three teams have this season (Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers) and tied with a fourth (Baltimore Ravens). The 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year (and overwhelming favorite to win the award this season), Garrett has turned in a potentially historic season, even with the Browns’ continued struggles on offense and the franchise guaranteed its seventh losing season since he was drafted. In February, Garrett requested a trade in hopes of landing with a contending team. In March, he recommitted to the organization with a then-record-setting extension that averages $40 million per year. Less than 10 months later, Garrett, who turns 30 on Dec. 29, is on the verge of smashing the record that Strahan set in 2001 and Watt equaled in 2021. Meanwhile, the Broncos have 51 sacks in 12 games, putting them on pace to tie the single-season team record of 72, set by the Chicago Bears in 1984. It has been a team effort for the Broncos, who have five players with four or more sacks. Edge rusher Nik Bonitto leads the way with 10.5, followed by edge Jonathon Cooper (7.5) and defensive tackle Zach Allen (6). Where things stand for Garrett (19 sacks through 12 games) Week 14: vs. Tennessee Titans, Sunday (1 p.m. ET, Fox)Key stats and trends on Garrett’s sack-happy season: Garrett’s 15 sacks in his past six games are the most by any player in a six-game span since sacks became an official stat in 1982, per ESPN Research. What we’re hearing on his season: “I don’t even think about it as a want — I just think about something that I’m going to knock down. It’s already been written in my mind that it’s going just how far I’m going to take it. So, just going to go out there and do what I do, and whatever number I end up at.” — Garrett said prior to the Browns’ Week 13 game against San Francisco. What Garrett needs to do to stay on pace: Garrett is on pace for 27 sacks, a number that would not only shatter the current record of 22.5, but would get Garrett the record at or before the 16th game, which marked the end of the season when Strahan originally set the mark. In his most recent game, Garrett recorded one sack against the 49ers to get to 19, the most by a player through 12 team games since sacks became an official stat in 1982. Garrett’s pace gives him some wiggle room for a down afternoon or two, but he hasn’t shown signs of slowing down. His next matchup is vs. the Titans and rookie quarterback Cam Ward, who has taken the most sacks in the NFL this season (48) Week 13: vs. San Francisco 49ers (26-8 loss)Garrett’s performance: He extended his NFL-leading sacks to total 19 by taking down 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy in the fourth quarter. The takedown of Purdy marked the sixth straight game Garrett has recorded a sack.– – -This on QB SHADEUR SANDERS from Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com: What’s the buzz around the league on Shedeur Sanders after two starts?Fowler: People I’ve talked to see a quarterback who’s willing to stay in the pocket and wait for plays to develop and one who has decent arm strength. But they also see one who needs more seasoning. “There were a lot of screens and boots [on Sunday vs. San Francisco],” noted one NFL personnel evaluator who watched the game. “You can tell they are trying to protect him, which you want to do with almost all rookie quarterbacks. But overall I thought he looked pretty comfortable in the pocket. He just needs time.” The Browns entered Sanders’ Week 12 starting debut believing he could avoid turnovers, which he has done with one interception in two games. He struggled mightily with sacks in college, which the Browns knew would be a concern. So taking only four sacks in two starts is a modest victory. What’s your take on Sanders, Dan? Graziano: To me, and to most of the folks I’ve asked, Sanders looks like a rookie quarterback. He has made some plays and throws, some of which Dillon Gabriel wasn’t making. Sanders has made some mistakes, some of which (like running out of the back of the pocket) align with concerns people have about him. I see no reason why the Browns shouldn’t continue starting him, because the point of the rest of their season seems to be finding out what they have at quarterback so they know how to approach the offseason. They have two first-round picks to help them address it if they want. Sanders won his first start, which is no small thing for this Browns team. The fans are into it. He has some talent. Let it ride and see what you’ve got. Fowler: The Browns must find out if their 2026 starting quarterback is on the current roster. The body of work through 12 games suggests it’s probably not, but Sanders has a decent runway to give the team something to consider. And my sense is he’ll get the rest of the season to do just that. Gabriel is a good decision-maker whose experience showed up in his six starts, but he projects more as a quality No. 2. Coaches I’ve talked to think Gabriel is slightly further along in his development than Sanders, who has the bigger arm and frame. Armed with two first-round picks (including one in the top five as it stands), the Browns are in prime position to get their future signal-caller, with the chance to supplement him with either a veteran bridge option or a variation of Gabriel/Sanders. Graziano: If nothing else, Cleveland can come out of this season with some idea whether Gabriel or Sanders can be a solid backup or if one of them is a project it is willing to continue to work on. Best-case scenario is Sanders lights it up and the Browns enter the offseason thinking he can be the guy long term. I’m not sure how likely that is at this point, but there is no harm in finding out. I know Sanders has a lot of people very worked up on both extremes, but my position is that he’s a fifth-round rookie on a bad team that has been looking for a quarterback solution for three decades. The Browns would be fools not to explore every possible solution, and I think that’s what they’re doing. |
| PITTSBURGHMoves involving two veterans in Pittsburgh – WR ADAM THIELEN is incoming while CB DARIUS SLAY is outbound. Mike DeFabo and Alec Lewis in The Athletic: The Pittsburgh Steelers are claiming veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen off waivers, a team source confirmed to The Athletic. The Minnesota Vikings waived Thielen, who was in his second stint with the franchise, on Monday. The 35-year-old was inactive for Sunday’s 26-0 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said in a statement on Monday that Thielen’s representation approached the team and asked for his release. Minnesota traded a 2026 fifth-round draft pick and a 2027 fourth-round pick to the Carolina Panthers for Thielen, a 2027 fifth-round pick and a conditional 2026 seventh-round pick, in August. The veteran, however, never established a role in the Vikings’ offense. He’s tallied eight receptions for 69 yards in 185 offensive snaps this year. Thielen spent his first nine NFL seasons in Minnesota after the franchise signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2014. He earned two Pro Bowl nods during his Vikings tenure and ranks fourth in the franchise’s history with 542 receptions and fifth with 6,751 receiving yards. Steelers add depth at WRWhen the Steelers traded George Pickens to the Dallas Cowboys during the offseason, the team had a level of confidence that young receivers Calvin Austin III and Roman Wilson could step up and help fill the void. However, as the season has unfolded, it’s been clear that the Steelers are missing depth and talent at the position. DK Metcalf leads Pittsburgh with 45 receptions. Behind him, Austin has only 26 catches for 278 yards and Wilson has 12 catches for 166. Receivers aren’t consistently creating separation. Lately, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has also been frustrated with pass catchers who haven’t been on the same page. Given Thielen’s age and the fact that he caught just eight passes in 11 games, there should be a level of skepticism that he can significantly move the needle. Sure, earlier in his career, he would have made sense with Rodgers as a big-bodied target who once ran precise routes and was willing to go over the middle of the field. But if he was a healthy scratch in his final game in Minnesota, how much can he open up the offense? That said, this was a low-risk addition for a Steelers team that had a pretty glaring need at the position. The downside is low, but the upside likely isn’t much higher. – Mike DeFabo, Steelers beat writer Steelers release SlayWhen the Steelers signed cornerback Darius Slay to a one-year, $10 million deal, the team initially believed he could be part of a remade secondary that would be capable of playing man coverage against any offense in the league. However, he looked much more like a 34-year-old player at the end of his career than a six-time Pro Bowler. Injured often this year, Slay sustained a concussion in Week 10 against the Los Angeles Chargers. He lost his starting job the following week to James Pierre, a former undrafted free agent. When the Steelers acquired Asante Samuel Jr., Slay slid further down the depth chart. On Sunday, he was a healthy scratch. Now, the Steelers are moving on in order to make room for Samuel on the active roster. The Slay experience is a perfect microcosm for what’s gone wrong for the Steelers’ defense. The Steelers thought they had a star. But now, it looks like they paid too much for a player who was too old and then expected too much out of him. On an underperforming Steelers defense, he’s not the only one that fits into the category of overpaid, overrated or past his prime. — DeFabo Ben Solak of ESPN.com says it is time to push the panic button: Pittsburgh SteelersPanic meter: DEFCON 1,000,000 (Yes, I understand that the bigger DEFCON numbers are actually less severe. “DEFCON 1” just doesn’t sound as good.) The Steelers’ 2025 offseason did not work. They pursued Aaron Rodgers in the belief that the 41-year-old quarterback had another year of championship-caliber play in him, and he clearly doesn’t. They swapped safety Minkah Fitzpatrick for Jalen Ramsey in the belief that Ramsey could still play cornerback and give them unprecedented versatility in the defensive backfield, and he couldn’t and hasn’t. They extended T.J. Watt in the belief that the 30-year-old edge rusher’s game would age well, and it hasn’t. They flipped George Pickens for DK Metcalf in the belief that Pickens’ behavioral headaches weren’t worth his production at receiver, which they could backfill with Metcalf, and they were wrong. It is obnoxious to say that we all saw this coming, but generally speaking, we did. Watt’s explosiveness tailed off through the 2024 season before his injury and has dropped again this year. His get-off was 0.75 seconds in 2022, then 0.79 in 2023, 0.83 in 2024 and now 0.87 in 2025. That full tenth of a second matters for a speed rusher such as Watt, who has delivered a pressure rate below 10% in each of the past two seasons. With a deep and young group of edge rushers behind him, the Steelers were well-positioned to get out a year early rather than a year late. But moving on from Watt didn’t fit their timeline, so he was extended at a $41 million annually — greater than the average annual value of Myles Garrett’s contract. Garrett has 19 sacks this season; Watt has seven. Watt is no longer a blue-chipper, and with Ramsey relegated to safety to hide his diminishing athleticism, there are no top-tier players left on Pittsburgh’s defense. Because of all the veteran contracts, the Steelers’ defense is second in cap spending but 20th in success rate. The lack of team speed kills them in explosive play rate, too; they are 26th in surrendering both explosive passes and explosive runs. There are schematic frustrations as well, as the Steelers’ run defense is a travesty of errors along the defensive line and at linebacker. Buffalo ran for 249 yards on Pittsburgh on Sunday in the absence of first-round defensive tackle Derrick Harmon (knee); it was the most rushing yardage surrendered by the Steelers at home since 1975. They can’t play too much zone coverage, either — it’s hard to hide those linebackers. The offensive issues are similar but siloed in one player: Rodgers. No two ways around it, Rodgers is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. He cannot drive the football but hates to throw interceptable balls, so he flutters passes at the edge of his receivers’ range. He also hates getting hit, so he gets rid of the ball faster than almost any other passer, which negates his elite post-snap processing. Once the premier magician in extending plays and throwing on the move, Rodgers is now one of the worst QBs on dropbacks longer than 2.5 seconds. Only Cam Ward, Joe Flacco and Jaxson Dart have worse success rates on such plays. Game planning for Rodgers and the Steelers is extremely easy. Top corners travel with Metcalf (Christian Benford did this week, and DJ Turner II did two weeks before) and press him at the line, disrupting the timing of Rodgers’ primary quick-game target. Rodgers will either throw up a prayer to an uninspiring downfield option (Calvin Austin III, Roman Wilson) or check down to running backs Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. If he’s lucky, it’ll be tight end Darnell Washington. A few times per game, one of those after-the-catch athletes will get a big gain. Warren is quick and hard to tackle; Washington is enormous and hard to tackle. Amazingly, 66.4% of Rodgers’ passing yards have come after the catch, which is second only to 2011 A.J. Feeley in the past 15 years. That’s 713 quarterbacking seasons worth of sample! This is completely untenable. Rodgers’ 5.7 air yards per attempt is 703rd out of those 713 seasons; his minus-3.5 air yards to the sticks is 705th. Rodgers cannot and will not throw the football downfield yet remains in total control of the offense at the line of scrimmage and regularly checks out of runs and into passes. The passing game is completely inadequate. This, like every other aspect of the Steelers’ season, was foreseeable. The Steelers’ short-term outlook is bleak. Their Week 14 game against the Ravens is winnable, but it’s on the road against a physical and ascending defense. If Pittsburgh loses, it’ll slip below .500 and lose control of the AFC North, which is its only path into the playoffs. The long-term outlook is bleaker. There is no quarterback of the future on the roster, and the rest of the cap sheet is loaded with bad contracts. Metcalf is due $31 million next year, Watt is due $42 million, and Ramsey is due $17.9 million. The Steelers need to recover from their 2025 spending spree, and they’ll likely have no hardware — not even a division championship — to show for it. The evidence that Mike Tomlin is the leader to pull them from this spiral is diminishing rapidly. While I remain confident that Tomlin is a good coach (look at how many of the Steelers’ young players or veterans on small contracts are positive contributors), it’s clear that his overarching organizational philosophy needs modernization. If there ever was an offseason to trade Tomlin, rip the roster down to the studs and start to rebuild, it’s this one. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com wonders if Mike Tomlin’s time as coach could be/should be coming to an end: Mike Tomlin became the coach of the Steelers in 2007. Nineteen years later, he’s still going. If you haven’t heard, he’s never had a losing season. If you also haven’t heard, Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season. Which means, if the Steelers don’t win a postseason game this year, he will have gone nine seasons without winning one after his first ten seasons on the job. Given the current state of the team, which has slid to 6-6 after a 4-1 start, the circumstances raise a fair question: Is it time for a change? For both sides. Team and coach arguably could use a fresh start. Team and coach arguably could benefit from a shakeup. Frankly, Tomlin doesn’t seem to be as troubled by the current state of the team as he should be. And maybe it’s because he knows the Steelers won’t fire him. Because the Steelers don’t fire coaches. It’s their thing. What they’re known for. Three coaches since 1969. And they’re usually good enough deep enough into the season to maximize revenue. The fans show up for the games. They pay for parking. They buy overpriced beer and food. They purchase the merch. The business is booming, even as season after season goes bust. There’s an inherent complacency that can creep into such situations. Win or lose, Tomlin gets $16 million per year. He’s winning, even when he isn’t. He has a Super Bowl victory, earned in his second season on the job. Why allow the struggles of any given season to create undue torment when ongoing employment at a very high salary is essentially guaranteed? He’s pragmatic about the current state of the team, and regarding the discontent that prompted “Fire Tomlin!” chants and booing during the iconic Renegade moment on Sunday. “In general, I agree with them, from this perspective: Football is our game, we’re in a sport entertainment business,” Tomlin said Tuesday, via the Associated Press. “And so if you root for the Steelers, entertaining them is winning. And so when you’re not winning, it’s not entertaining.” Implicit in that explanation is Tomlin’s confidence that the fans will keep showing up, hopeful for entertainment. Entertaining or not, the money will keep flowing. And the checks, for Tomlin, will keep coming. That’s not a criticism of Tomlin. It’s a reality of the situation the Steelers have created by not doing what other teams do. The vast majority of NFL head coaches live with a nagging reality that their personal inevitabilities include death, taxes, and getting fired. (Not in that specific order.) Tomlin, based on his accomplishments and the team’s strong affinity for its reputation for stability, doesn’t have to worry about being asked to leave. It all combines to create a stew of stagnation. Good enough is good enough. Short of a full-blown disaster season (or two . . . or three), Art Rooney II won’t be scribbling up a pink slip for Tomlin. If Rooney is fine with that calculus, it’s his business. Literally. The question is whether, for the fans, the current situation is viewed as another short-term dip or the final straw for a more chronic problem. Regardless, after nearly two decades together in an industry with up to 25-percent turnover every year, it’s possible that the team and the coach have landed in a far-too-comfortable rut. They know how to win enough games each year to stave off a full-blown fan mutiny, while making more than enough money to keep everyone in the building fat and happy. That’s possibly the core problem. The powers-that-be may have gotten a little too fat and a little too happy. Meanwhile, the fans are starving for something more than another one-and-done postseason run — if they even get that this season. Frankly, the longer the fans keep showing up, the longer the trend of the past nine seasons may continue. And this: @AdamBreneman81Ben Roethlisberger just floated a wild idea… Mike Tomlin to Penn State “Go be Penn State’s head coach. You know what he would do at Penn State? He’d probably go win national championships. Because he’s a great recruiter.” Wild stuff |
| AFC SOUTH |
| INDIANAPOLISLast year, the Colts had PK MATT GAY who hit all 61 kicks under 50 yards, but waived him to find someone who could go better than 3-for-9 from 50+ PK SPENCER SHRADER replaced him and did fine, but he suffered a knee injury. Next up, PK MICHAEL BADGLEY has missed 3 PATs, including an important one on Sunday. So next up is PK BLAKE GRUPE. Stephen Holder of ESPN.com: The Colts have reversed course at kicker. Indianapolis waived Michael Badgley on Tuesday, then signed former New Orleans Saints kicker Blake Grupe to their practice squad after a tryout that included former Baltimore Ravens great Justin Tucker. Badgley was under scrutiny after missing his third extra point in seven games in the Colts’ 20-16 loss to the Houston Texans on Sunday. Coach Shane Steichen on Monday left the door open to make a change and, earlier Tuesday, special teams coordinator Brian Mason made it clear the Colts were concerned about moving forward with Badgley. “We have to be able to make the layups and the free throws that we have, especially [extra points],” he said. “We’ve missed three PATs in seven games. It’s inexcusable.” Grupe was released by the Saints last week in his third season with the team. He has converted 79.8% of his field goal attempts in his career and has missed two of 88 attempts on extra points. The Colts held a three-man tryout on Tuesday that included Tucker, the Ravens five-time All-Pro. He remains a free agent after serving a 10-week suspension for violations of the NFL’s personal conduct policy related to alleged sexual misconduct with Baltimore-area massage therapists. Tucker has denied the allegations. Tucker got his first workout since his reinstatement with the Saints last week when they were searching for a replacement for Grupe. The Saints opted to sign Cade York instead. Actually, the Saints promoted PK CHARLIE SMYTH from the practice squad. He hit his only kick Sunday, from 56 yards out.- – -Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com on the daunting task facing the Colts: The tension is also palpable in the AFC South, one of two divisions featuring three teams with at least seven wins (the NFC West is the other). It’s particularly thick in Indianapolis, which is coming off back-to-back losses and faces a unrelenting finishing stretch. The teams left on the Colts’ schedule — including two matchups with Jacksonville, which is tied with the Colts at 8-4 but holds the tiebreaker due to record against common opponents — have a combined record of 33-15. The Colts were looking forward to this difficult stretch, which started with a Week 12 loss to the Chiefs, believing it would test their January football mettle. How they play over the next month will be closely watched by many in the league. The Colts have lost three of their past four games, quarterback Daniel Jones is noticeably hobbled, and cornerback Sauce Gardner is probably out multiple weeks because of a calf injury. Meanwhile, Jacksonville keeps finding a way to win without a dominant passing attack, while Houston’s defense can hang with anybody. All of this deepens the intrigue of a normally overlooked division. |
| AFC EAST |
| NEW ENGLANDMike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com on the palpable intensity of Mike Vrabel’s Patriots on Monday night: Some great teams tend to play with their food. On Monday night, the Patriots devoured everything on their plate. It was obvious from the get-go. The Patriots were hitting hard last night. Early, often, and consistently. Perhaps it was a reaction to the failure to deliver a knockout blow to the Bengals eight days earlier. Perhaps it was a product of coach Mike Vrabel ensuring that the Pats didn’t miss a beat during the inherent distractions of Thanksgiving week. Perhaps it flowed from an intense desire to not coast into the bye week. Perhaps it was an the first step in a deliberate effort to leave little doubt as the Patriots chase down the AFC East crown and the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Whatever the reason(s), it’s clear that Vrabel poked, prodded, and pestered his players to bring the heat for a prime-time audience. With nine wins in a row entering the game, last night wasn’t the time to let the foot slip off the accelerator. Instead, they punched it. Figuratively and literally. The message to the rest of the league, as the Patriots get 13 days to host the Bills before visiting the Ravens, was unmistakable. At a time when many teams are fighting their way through a long, up-and-down slog, the Patriots are throwing haymakers. If they can keep it up, it will make a major difference. It also could deliver the team’s first postseason win since 2018. And more. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| HEADING TO COLLEGE – HARDER NOW FOR NFL COACHESMike Florio of ProFootballWeekly.com opines that it would be hard for an NFL coach to chase the big money in CFB (but he has a mention of John Harbaugh to Penn State): With failed former Raiders coach Lane Kiffin working his way up the college football ladder toward a minimum payday of $13 million per year, some NFL coaches may be interested in ditching the realities of life in the NFL for having an NCAA program of their own. But there’s an issue, fueled by the new NIL and transfer realities of college football. Major programs with open positions can’t wait around for an NFL head coach’s season to end. Nineteen years ago this month, when Dolphins coach Nick Saban notoriously declared, “I’m not going to be the Alabama coach,” Saban waited until his 6-10 regular season ended before bolting for ‘Bama. One year later, Falcons coach Bobby Petrino absconded from Atlanta before the season concluded, taking the job at Arkansas. The ability of an NFL head coach to hit the road for the NCAA depends largely on whether his contract permits it. (Saban’s contract, for instance, allowed him to return to college football whenever he wanted.) But who would quit on his NFL team before the season has ended? Sure, NFL teams fire head coaches during the season every year. The idea that a coach of a good pro team would load up the truck and move out of town is borderline inconceivable. The problem is that the schools can’t afford to wait until January. Transfer portals will open. Money will need to be raised. College programs need to fill their vacancies ASAFP. At some point, it makes sense to wait. With Penn State whiffing on BYU coach Kalani Sitake, the Nittany Lions may want to consider an NFL coach. If the Ravens don’t make it to the playoffs, John Harbaugh could be a perfect fit at Penn State — if he’s ready to move on from the job he has held since 2008. And, no, Mike Tomlin likely won’t be a candidate at Penn State. He has made it clear he’s not interested in college football, famously saying “never say never, but never” when asked about the USC job in 2021. Either way, the NFL’s coaching carousel is less than five weeks away from hitting high gear. At this point, Penn State may be wise to wait. Generally speaking, however, most college programs will want to fill vacancies long before a current NFL head coach could reasonably walk away. Which will make it very difficult for NFL head coaches to jump to the increasing money and inherent power of running a college program. |
| COMMITTEE HIJINKS @CFBKingsAlabama just jumped Notre Dame. Last 4 games against FBS opponents: Notre Dame:• Beat 9-2 Navy by 39• Beat #22 Pitt by 22• Beat 3-9 Syracuse by 63• Beat 4-8 Stanford by 28 Alabama:• Beat 4-8 SC by 7• Beat 7-5 LSU by 11• Lost to OU at home• Beat 5-7 Auburn by 7 After being ranked behind Notre Dame for the past two weeks while ND crushed everyone, Alabama’s 7-point victory over bowl-ineligible Auburn boosts them past the Irish. Blatant rigging for a certain conference. @steveinnes123The committee chair actually said — with a straight face, apparently — “But Alabama went on the road, in a rivalry game, and looked really good, especially in the first half.” “Looked really good”? Seriously? What alternate broadcast were you watching? That was a six-loss (now seven) Auburn team sleepwalking through its own stadium. Auburn fumbled down 7 at the Alabama 20 in the final minute. @PeteFiutakThe ESPN show is totally blowing off the big story. The College Football Playoff committee just gerrymandered its rankings by putting Notre Dame at 10 to assure five SEC teams are in the tournament. SEC diehards think that Texas, which should not be punished for scheduling Ohio State, really deserves to be the 6th SEC team in the tournament, over Notre Dame or Miami. @slmandelThey’ve said all along, head to head is a tiebreaker *if the teams are close.* It doesn’t get closer than *1 spot apart* They will absolutely invoke it then. I’ve been saying this for weeks. @AustinGrade95Replying to @slmandelNo they aren’t. They aren’t going to have Notre dame above miami this entire time only to flip them in the final ranking when neither played. It’s not happening. Notre dame is only in trouble if BYU wins Are we agreeing with Chuck Todd? @chucktoddNo words. These ESPN/CFP invitational rankings are a joke. The bias toward the SEC is the tell. Both OU and Bama should be below Miami and ND. But typical SEC bias. If Ole Miss were not in the SEC, I promise you this cmte would have dropped them too. It is what it is, I know Miami will be screwed again. |
| 2026 DRAFTESPN’s four draft experts have four different players as their top 2026 prospect: Who would you rank as the No. 1 prospect in the class right now? Kiper: Dante Moore, QB, Oregon. He’s poised and accurate, sitting third in the FBS in completion percentage (72.5%). I really like his deep-ball touch, and he’s good enough with his legs when he needs to scramble. And Moore hasn’t really had a perfect situation — he has played multiple games in the rain and has missed key players at WR, TE and OL due to injuries. It’s tough to stand out in those conditions, but he has looked great. The biggest question will be Moore’s experience; he is a third-year sophomore with 17 career starts. Miller: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame. He’s the best pure prospect in the class and the closest thing most of us have seen to Reggie Bush since the former USC Heisman winner was terrorizing defenses in the early-mid 2000s. Love has a special blend of burst, deep speed and vision. He is a threat to take it the distance on every touch but has the patience and poise to not press the line of scrimmage. So, without factoring in who will actually go No. 1 due to positional value, Love is the best player in the class. Reid: Arvell Reese, Edge/LB, Ohio State. Reese has been arguably the most consistent player on a loaded Ohio State defense, which has allowed the fewest points in the FBS (7.8 per game). Reese wasn’t on scouts’ radars entering the season but has seen his stock skyrocket after posting 61 tackles and 6.5 sacks this season. He has a unique combination of bend and power that has prompted questions about where he projects best at the next level. Because of that blend of traits and the flashes that he has shown as a defensive end, I believe Reese fits better as an edge rusher, where he can use his play strength to wreak havoc. Yates: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana. This answer requires nuance, as Reese is the surest thing among the prospects that I have studied so far and a plausible candidate to go No. 1. However, it’s impossible to ignore positional value, and with that in mind, Mendoza jumps to the top of the heap. He has a starting quarterback grade for me, with elements of his game that remind me of Sam Darnold, and a solid starting quarterback in the NFL is arguably the most valuable position in sports. Let’s talk through this quarterback group: How many passers have a Round 1 grade? Reid: Three right now — Moore, Mendoza and Alabama’s Ty Simpson. The interesting thing about this group is that many of the highly touted passers coming into the season haven’t performed as anticipated. Guys such as Arch Manning, LaNorris Sellers and Cade Klubnik have slid, leading to the emergence of others. Simpson and Moore are both first-year starters who could return to school, so there’s uncertainty on whether they’ll be in the 2026 class. Mendoza has one year of eligibility remaining, but all signs point to him declaring. Scouts had said Mendoza could quickly catapult his way up draft boards if he made the adjustment to Curt Cignetti’s Indiana offense after transferring from Cal. He certainly has, to the tune of 2,758 passing yards, 32 touchdown passes and five interceptions. Which QB has the best chance to go No. 1 overall? Yates: Mendoza. Except for the Titans and Giants, almost every team within striking distance of the first pick needs a quarterback to build around. Of those three QBs in the first-round mix, Mendoza is the one that I feel most confident in declaring for the draft. The QB1 conversation is not open and closed in my book, as much of it will be determined by the team’s offensive system and preferred QB play style. |
