The Daily Briefing Wednesday, December 7, 2022

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

The Lions have played 9 of their 12 games against teams with .500 or better records.  They are 2-7 in those games with 5 of the losses by 4 or fewer points.  They are 3-0 against teams with losing records.  Nick Baumgarner of The Athletic on Detroit on the rise:

The locker room is different these days. There’s more music. Sometimes, they’ll play cards in there. Shortly after Dan Campbell brought his new staff to Detroit, assistant head coach Duce Staley took one look at the team’s space in Allen Park and made suggestions. As a result, there are now couches and pool tables and places to just hang out.

The players aren’t only allowed to be themselves after (and during) work now, they’re encouraged to. There’s ping-pong. They had a team-only Halloween costume contest. The biggest difference in a Lions locker room these days: When a practice or game ends, there’s no longer a rush to the exit or overheard conversations about where a guy might be able to get a good steak — alone — after another embarrassing loss.

After Sunday’s 40-14 win over Jacksonville, huddled in his locker with socks, shoes and shoulder pads all over the place, and wearing the look of satisfaction that only comes after winning an NFL game, 22-year-old Penei Sewell smiled and talked about the new best part of his life: his newborn son, Malakai.

Then, immediately and without warning, Sewell — the first draft pick made by the Campbell-Brad Holmes regime — began speaking with a more serious tone as he got to the root of why the Lions have turned a corner.

“Everybody in this locker room,” Sewell said, gesturing broadly, “we actually, genuinely care about each other. We hold each other accountable. That’s how you build a team.”

Same old Lions? Taylor Decker already told you they don’t live here anymore. At this point, it’s only on you if you didn’t listen. Suddenly 5-7 and with four wins in the last five, Detroit no longer looks like the talent-dry group of try-hards who went 3-13-1 in Campbell’s first year.

Holmes’ entire 2022 draft class was active and present for duty during that blowout of the Jaguars. Sewell, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and defensive tackle Alim McNeill are three of the best second-year players in the NFL. Edge Aidan Hutchinson, safety Kerby Joseph and linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez have sparkled defensively as rookies. There are players like corner Jerry Jacobs and center/guard Evan Brown, too, young guys nobody else wanted who’ve became players this team can’t live without.

The Lions — still owners of two first-round picks in 2023 — have emerged from the rubble left behind by Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia and are no longer hopeless. Far from it. There’s positive momentum in Detroit these days, but there’s also an actual plan for the future. One that makes sense.

How’d we get here?

“The Dan Johnson Offense.”

No one actually calls it this, by the way. I just made it up. Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson (who absolutely deserves the national attention he’s received this season as a young, forward-thinking play caller) have known each other for a decade, dating back to Campbell’s time as a naive-yet-passionate, 36-year-old interim head coach in Miami. Alongside him, Johnson was a quiet-yet-brilliant, 28-year-old assistant quarterbacks coach.

Among people who really know Campbell, there are two agreed-upon certainties. First, if you are truly one of his loyal friends, he’ll try to move the planet for you when asked. Second, he’s smarter than he lets you think he is. And not, like, just a little bit smarter. A lot.

And while, from situational decisions during games to week-to-week roster choices, Campbell is absolutely still learning how to be a head coach in the NFL, his knowledge of offensive football is as high as any head coach in this league. It’s why randomly, and for reasons that few could figure out at the time, he retained Johnson from Patricia’s staff. By the middle of the 2021 season, after Campbell removed play-calling duties from Anthony Lynn, Johnson and Campbell had redesigned Detroit’s offense together. They spent the rest of the year calling plays in tandem.

Now it’s Johnson’s show, but Campbell’s hands remain in everything.

So I’m dubbing it “The Dan Johnson Offense” not just because there are two architects, but also because that’s a simple name. Sometimes in life, the best things are the most simplistic. Johnson and Campbell haven’t created a new style of football, they’ve created their own system that revolves around toughness (physical and mental) and logic.

Detroit’s offensive line is among the best in the league. Sewell, Frank Ragnow and Decker are all first-round picks. Jonah Jackson, arguably Quinn’s best draft value as a third-rounder in 2020, is among the most underrated guards in football. All four are athletic big men, which allows Detroit to use a run game that’s as diverse as it gets in the NFL.

The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen charted 16 different run concepts used by Detroit over the first two games of the year (which is a ton). That number has since increased. But, more importantly, Johnson carefully packages and organizes when, where and exactly how to deploy every one of them. Jamaal Williams has a league-best 14 rushing touchdowns and Detroit ranks No. 10 in the NFL at 127 rushing yards per game.

The Lions are not afraid to run the ball on third-and-medium, out of any formation. Teams have to be on alert for that while also worrying about St. Brown, who is turning into one of the toughest slots in the league.

St. Brown does everything. So much about the philosophy behind Campbell’s offensive approach is matchup-based, something he borrowed from Sean Payton and ultimately derived from Bill Parcells. The best way to move the football is to get your best guy against someone who isn’t as good, then feed him the ball.

For this team, that means when the chips are down, they look for St. Brown. Jared Goff calls St. Brown a “friendly target,” one of the greatest compliments a quarterback can pay a receiver. St. Brown, who set an NFL record in Week 2 with his sixth straight game of at least eight catches and one TD, has 76 catches, 830 yards and six touchdowns through 11 appearances this season. He’s also rushed for a score.

“For a quarterback, ‘friendly’ is a guy who always comes back to the ball,” Goff said. “Always catches the ball, even if it’s thrown away from his body. Always where he needs to be. Understands coverage. Understands what I’m looking at. Always asking questions. Comes downhill when he’s breaking out (on a route) to make sure a guy can’t make a play on it. Little things.

“He’s a guy I’m lucky to play with. The sky is the limit for him.”

Offensively, the Lions have had flashes of dominance, especially on the ground. Detroit ranks No. 9 in total offense DVOA, a tick ahead of Green Bay as the top offense in the NFC North. That’s hardly a certificate worth framing, but for the Lions — the second-youngest team in the league when the season started — it’s a big deal.

The future of this football team lives in Sewell (22), Ragnow (26) and St. Brown (23), among others. The price of admission for the rest of the roster will be to match the toughness of those three — nothing more, nothing less.

The future could also feature Goff, who at 28 is finally starting to look like the guy who once played in a Super Bowl. It has not been easy or smooth. At the deadline, Detroit traded away T.J. Hockenson, another player who’d been a “friendly target” for Goff. Detroit’s QB wasn’t happy with the move and didn’t do much to hide that.

However, he’s also done something about it. Goff (3,022 yards, 19 TDs, 7 INTs this season) has thrown seven touchdowns to one interception since Hockenson moved to Minnesota. Hockenson’s departure has allowed the Lions to spread reps among other young players like rookie tight end James Mitchell, while also using more personnel groups that aren’t so tied to the idea of getting Hockenson touches.

The Dan Johnson Offense: So simple it just might work.

When we talk about turning corners, it’s important to note the offense is the real reason why the Lions seem able to close teams out. The bulk of the established talent on this roster lives on offense, so that only makes sense.

However, the job Aaron Glenn has done getting himself and his defense off the mat is as impressive as it is unsurprising. Those who doubted Glenn’s effectiveness as a coach in this league need only look at how his team hoisted him on its shoulders after a win over Green Bay this year or at how this secondary has flipped itself over the past month.

Take these stats gathered by SB Nation’s Jeremy Reisman: Over the last five weeks, Glenn’s defense ranks No. 1 in completion rate against (57.4 percent), No. 1 in interceptions forced (seven), No. 2 in opposing passer rating (74.9) and has allowed 6.7 yards yards per attempt.

Full context is needed in the NFL. For Glenn, in this case, it’s layered. The Lions’ win over Jacksonville featured the healthiest defensive depth chart Glenn has had all year. This week, Detroit could welcome back veteran edge Romeo Okwara for the first time since he tore an Achilles in September 2021. Jacobs, who made his season debut in Week 7, post-knee injury, has been a lifesaver. Glenn has also made changes.

Detroit fired respected defensive backs coach Aubrey Pleasant on Halloween, a move that shook people inside the building. Everyone respected Pleasant, and many of the players were very close with him. However, one way or another, change was needed. At that time, the Lions were allowing more than 420 yards per game. The last five weeks: 375.4, including a season-best 266 last week.

Part of Glenn’s change has been schematic. The Lions were an all-attack defense through the first five weeks of the season, and it was a mess. There was too much one-on-one happening all over the field, and not enough players were ready for that.

Glenn’s defense still attacks, of course, only he’s been picking his spots better. The front is also doing less work downhill and more reading, which has allowed players like Hutchinson, whose six sacks lead all rookies, to make more plays and given linebackers like Rodriguez and Derrick Barnes more time to get to ball carriers.

The biggest change, though, hasn’t really been a change at all. It’s been growth. Even when it was playing poorly, you could find something Glenn’s defense got better at week to week because the pieces in it were so young. Those “somethings” are all adding up now. Glenn has gotten more youth on the field, given them confidence and put them in their best roles.

Joseph plays less in the box now and more deep safety because he’s good at it. The Lions aren’t afraid to ask cornerback Jeff Okudah to help more in the box versus the run when they’re in nickel because he’s good at it. Glenn is letting Hutchinson rush more from a two-point stance than a three-point stance because — you guessed it — he’s good at it.

Glenn’s best trait as a coach is his ability to earn buy-in. That is the calling card for Campbell’s entire staff, but nobody is better at it than Detroit’s defensive coordinator. A 5-foot-9 (on his best day) ex-corner who starred in an era when you had no choice but to play physical football, Glenn coaches with his heart on his sleeve and gives only what he demands: his very best.

Like Campbell, Glenn is an old Texan at heart. But, also like Campbell, he’s as Detroit as Detroit gets.

Where’s this all headed? The Lions will host the Vikings (10-2) in a suddenly not-meaningless football game Sunday at Ford Field. Campbell’s team is still pretty imperfect, the defense is very young and there are limitations to this roster, in general.

However, it’s become impossible to look at this team and miss what could be in the not-so-distant future. All these first- and second-year players are finding their roles as fast as a team could possibly ask, and there’s still more on the way from rookie receiver Jameson Williams. Plus, the Lions hold five 2023 draft picks in the top 80, including a Rams first-round selection that presently sits in the top five. Holmes has enough cap room to do something notable this summer.

Campbell didn’t blink when a reporter asked him after the Jaguars win if he thinks this team can compete with anybody. It might be too late for that to matter in 2022, but it could carry a lot of weight in the not-so-distant future.

Just ask Sewell the same question: Can this roster hang with any team in the league?

“I believe that, 100 percent,” he said, also without blinking. “Without a doubt.”

NFC EAST

DALLAS

WR ODELL BECKHAM, Jr. may not be ready to play in time to help the Cowboys in 2022.  ESPN.com:

The Dallas Cowboys have concerns after Odell Beckham Jr.’s physical that his recovery from a torn left ACL in the Super Bowl has not progressed enough to ensure he would play before mid-January, a source tells ESPN’s Ed Werder.

There is a possibility that signing Beckham, who closed out his two-day visit with the Cowboys on Tuesday, would have no benefit until the 2023 season, the source added.

Beckham underwent a physical on Monday, met with Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and his family, and spent the night with Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs at the Dallas Mavericks’ game against the Phoenix Suns. Asked at halftime what the Cowboys’ chances of signing him were, Beckham told ESPN’s Tim MacMahon with a big smile, “It’s a good possibility.”

Jones remained noncommittal during an appearance on 105.3 The Fan in Dallas on Tuesday, but did say that Beckham playing this season is “paramount” to a deal possibly getting done without ruling it out altogether.

“It’s a lot different if you play one play or if you played or are available for a week and that week be the Super Bowl week, than if he’s available the next week,” Jones said. “And so everything in between. I would say that’s a point of discussion — a player’s own belief of where he is in becoming ready to play is real big.”

Beckham, who has also visited with the New York Giants and Buffalo Bills, was expected to meet Tuesday with Cowboys’ player leadership council that includes Dak Prescott and 10 other veterans.

Mike Florio didn’t like this story:

The Cowboys have a plan. They always do. As it relates to free-agent receiver Odell Beckham Jr., that plan currently isn’t doing Beckham any favors.

He visited the Giants and the Bills. There were no leaks about their medical examination of Beckham, who suffered a torn ACL in February. Then came the Cowboys. Then came the leaks.

Consider this from ESPN’s Ed Werder, who has covered the Cowboys for years: “The Cowboys have concerns after Odell Beckham Jr.’s physical that his recovery from torn left ACL in Super Bowl has not progressed enough to ensure he would play before mid-January and possibility exists signing him would have no benefit until 2023 season.”

So who did this come from? Beckham’s camp? No way. It only came from the Cowboys. And it’s obvious that the Cowboys wanted it out there.

At one point, it appeared that the Cowboys possibly were going through the motions with Beckham in order to get the Giants to pay more. Now, it looks as if the Cowboys are trying to get Beckham to take less — or, more specifically, to not insist on a contract that extends beyond 2022. They also may be trying, as one league source has opined, to placate players and fans who had been clamoring for the Cowboys to sign Beckham.

The source called the team’s decision to leak negative information about Beckham’s knee “astounding.” There was even a suggestion that Beckham, who recently sued Nike for breach of contract, should sue the Cowboys for violating his medical privacy rights.

“How could he even consider signing there now?” the source asked.

And while this indeed will help get the players to accept a decision not to sign Beckham, the players should realize that this is how the game gets played. And at some point any of them may be on the wrong side of said game.

If they’re leaking information about Beckham to the media, what are they leaking about others, from Dak Prescott to Randy Gregory to Ezekiel Elliott to whoever, whenever, however?

So, yes, it’s a bad look for the Cowboys. And, no, Beckham shouldn’t sign there.

It should motivate him to take what he can get with another team for the balance of 2022, and then to become a free agent in 2023 and hit the open market and get paid.

PHILADELPHIA

DE ROBERT QUINN is going to have a tuneup on his knee and be back for the playoffs.  Tim McManus of ESPN.com:

Eagles defensive end Robert Quinn is slated to have his knee scoped this week, a league source confirmed to ESPN, and he was placed on injured reserve Tuesday, the team announced.

Quinn went to the trainers following Thursday’s practice because something in his knee didn’t feel right, the source added. He appeared on the injury report Friday and was inactive for Sunday’s game against the Tennessee Titans.

He will miss at least the next four games but will be eligible to come off IR for the regular-season finale against the New York Giants and could be available to play in the postseason.

The Eagles acquired Quinn from the Chicago Bears in late October before the trade deadline for a fourth-round pick. He has appeared in five games for Philadelphia and has zero sacks and two tackles.

NFL Network was first to report that Quinn would undergo arthroscopic surgery.

In other moves Tuesday, the Eagles activated defensive end Janarius Robinson from injured reserve and waived safety Andre Chachere. In addition, defensive tackle Anthony Rush, cornerback Javelin Guidry and wide receiver Kawaan Baker were released from the practice squad.

Quinn, 32, posted a career-high 18.5 sacks in 2021 — second most in the NFL — but registered just one sack in seven games with the Bears this season before being traded.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

They have evaluated the foot injury to QB JIMMY GARROPPOLO – and, he might be back in January.  Adam Schefter:

@AdamSchefter

Sources: Doctors concluded today that 49ers’ QB Jimmy Garoppolo does not need foot surgery, it is not a Lisfranc injury, and if rehab goes smoothly, he could have a chance to return in 7-8 weeks, making him a potential playoff contributor.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Speculation was on the 49ers going after QB BAKER MAYFIELD, but instead it was the Rams that made the only waiver claim.  Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com:

The Los Angeles Rams have claimed quarterback Baker Mayfield off waivers, the team announced Tuesday.

The Carolina Panthers waived Mayfield on Monday, something interim coach Steve Wilks said was a mutual agreement between the two sides. Wilks said Mayfield asked to be released after finding out he wouldn’t be the starting quarterback or backup in Carolina going forward.

The Rams will inherit the remaining $1.35 million on Mayfield’s contract.

Mayfield was expected to fly to Los Angeles by Tuesday night and could play as soon as Thursday night against the Las Vegas Raiders as the Rams are in the process of sending the playbook to him to make sure he can study the offense on his flight, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Asked if Mayfield has a chance to play against the Raiders, one source told Schefter, “There’s a shot.”

The Rams were the only team to place a waiver claim on Mayfield, a source told ESPN’s Field Yates.

“It’s just kind of acquiring talent, to be honest, and acquiring somebody to come in and evaluate him, but also our offense,” Rams offensive coordinator Liam Coen said Tuesday about claiming Mayfield. “Continuing to evaluate the offense [and] the other players. It’s more so about acquiring talent. Just getting somebody in here that we can continue to develop some competitive nature within the room.

“If it is something that can provide a spark and somebody that can come in and help us compete to win football games, that’s the ultimate goal for the last five weeks of the season,” Coen added.

The defending Super Bowl champion Rams (3-9) have lost six straight games.

On Saturday, the Rams put starting quarterback Matthew Stafford on injured reserve because of a spinal cord contusion. Stafford has been sidelined since he injured his neck in the Rams’ Week 11 loss to the New Orleans Saints, a game he left after being evaluated for a concussion. Coach Sean McVay later said Stafford felt some numbness in his legs after taking a hit in that game.

Although Stafford is eligible to return in Week 17, McVay said “there’s a good chance” the quarterback will not play again this season.

Backup quarterback John Wolford started in the Rams’ Week 13 loss to the Seattle Seahawks but was checked out several times by the team’s medical staff during the game. He was listed on the injury report Monday with a neck injury and was estimated to be a limited participant Tuesday as the Rams held a walkthrough.

If Mayfield doesn’t play, either Wolford or third-string quarterback Bryce Perkins will start Thursday night’s game. Perkins started in the Rams’ Week 12 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs while Wolford was injured.

The Panthers traded for Mayfield in July, sending the Cleveland Browns a conditional 2024 fifth-round draft pick that could have become a fourth had Mayfield played 70% of the snaps. Mayfield did not hit that mark this season.

Mayfield, the first overall pick in 2018, won the Panthers’ starting job in training camp after an open competition with Sam Darnold, the third pick of the 2018 draft. He went 1-5 as a starter and had a career-low 57.8 completion percentage while throwing only six touchdown passes to six interceptions.

He ranks last in the NFL in Total QBR among qualified quarterbacks with a rating of 18.2, which also is the second-worst ever among 521 qualified passers since tracking of the stat began in 2006, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The next lowest this season is Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills with a rating of 29.2.

This is how bad Mayfield was for the Panthers, via ESPN’s secret sauce QBR rating:

Worst Total QBR in a season

Baker Mayfield has an 18.2 Total QBR in 2022, ranked 520th out of 521 qualified QB seasons since the stat started being tracked in 2006.

SEASON/TEAM                                    QBR

2010 CAR         Jimmy Clausen              13.8

2022 CAR         Baker Mayfield              18.2

2011 JAX          Blaine Gabbert               22.2

2006 OAK         Andrew Walter               23.0

2018 ARI           Josh Rosen                   24.1

— ESPN Stats & Information

Merry Christmas!  Kyle Yates:

@KyleYNFL

We now get to watch Baker Mayfield vs. Russell Wilson on Christmas Day.

Merry Christmas to all.

AFC WEST

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The plight of a Chargers QB:

@NFL_DovKleiman

Watching Justin Herbert attempt to gut out a win each week despite having almost no receivers, no offensive line, no time to throw, no running game and dealing with bad coaching decisions reminds me of a certain QB in NFL history.

Philip Rivers

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

Adam Schefter updates us on the injury to QB LAMAR JACKSON:

@AdamSchefter

Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson suffered a sprained PCL during Sunday’s win over the Denver Broncos, per league sources. PCL injuries often sideline players 1-to-3 weeks and Ravens’ HC John Harbaugh already has said Jackson is “less likely” to play Sunday vs. the Steelers.

PITTSBURGH

Mike Tomlin says he is fine with WR GEORGE PICKENS demanding he be thrown the ball.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Steelers wide receiver George Pickens was seen during Sunday’s game yelling on the sideline about how he wasn’t getting the ball a lot, and there’s been some commentary since then that the sideline outburst was poor form. But Steelers coach Mike Tomlin had no problem with it.

Tomlin said Pickens was upset that he only caught one pass for two yards, and that it’s good to have players who want the ball more.

 “I want a guy that wants to be a significant part of what it is we do,” Tomlin said. “Now the appropriate and professional and mature way to express that, we’re growing and working on, and we will continue. But that spirit, that competitive spirit, that guy that wants the ball? I want that guy.”

Tomlin said Pickens yelling on the sideline was no different than what he has seen from a lot of great players going through frustrating games.

“We’ve got competitors. This is professional football,” Tomlin said. “These guys know they have to deliver. For a guy who wants to do that, I’m not going to make that a negative, no matter how silly I think the commentary is, or people talking about him expressing frustrations, and trying to make it a negative story line. I laugh at that. That’s one of the reasons we’re continually progressing, because we’re capable of tuning that B.S. out.”

AFC SOUTH

TENNESSEE

Joe Rexrode of The Athletic on the firing of GM Jon Robinson:

The Tennessee Titans have fired general manager Jon Robinson during his seventh season at the helm, the team announced Tuesday. Here’s what you need to know:

The Titans named Ryan Cowden as their interim GM. Cowden served as the team’s vice president of player personnel before being tagged as the interim GM.

Robinson was under contract through the 2027 NFL Draft, according to NFL Network. He’s the only general manager in franchise history to oversee six consecutive winning seasons.

Tennessee earned playoff berths in four of the past five seasons. The Titans advanced to the 2019 AFC Championship game, compiled consecutive AFC South titles the past two seasons and earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed last season.

Since Robinson took over in 2016, the Titans have had the ninth-best overall winning percentage (.606) and fifth-best winning percentage in divisional games (.667).

The Athletic’s instant analysis:

Robinson’s notable mistakes

This is a shocking turn of events, during the season, for a 7-5 team that leads its division and will almost certainly win that division for an unprecedented third year in a row. It comes two days after Robinson’s worst move as GM — trading A.J. Brown to the Eagles — was rubbed in the face of Strunk and the team in a 35-10 Philadelphia rout. Robinson has made several mistakes in recent years, most notably (other than Brown) the first-round picks of Isaiah Wilson in 2020 and Caleb Farley in 2021, along with second-round pick Dillon Radunz in 2021.

This team is clearly worse than the 2021 team that was the No. 1 seed in the AFC South — but, to repeat, this team was the No. 1 seed last season! And Robinson, since the Titans hired him in early 2016, has built a consistent winner (66-43, 3-4 in the playoffs) on the heels of 2014-15 teams that went 5-27 combined. — Rexrode

Stick with Cowden or look outside?

Cowden assumes control with Robinson out, and Cowden has been a valuable lieutenant for Robinson and has interviewed for a few GM openings along the way. But if Strunk lost faith in Robinson’s way, it doesn’t add up that she would seriously consider Cowden for the opening. This figures to be an outside hire — unless this signifies a massive uptick in power for Mike Vrabel. The Titans are well aware that Ohio State could be poking around the reigning NFL Coach of the Year at some point in the near future, and he won rings in this league under a coach who also served as GM.

The presumption is a totally new GM from the outside who would split duties with Vrabel. The reality is, Strunk just gave a good reason for everyone to keep an open mind until the direction is clear. — Rexrode

THIS AND THAT

NEW QB1 IN 2024?

David Carr at NFL.com identifies four teams that will be under new QB management in 2023:

Last year at this time, I determined that four specific teams would open the 2022 campaign with a starting quarterback who wasn’t even on the roster in 2021 — and three of them did indeed end up trotting out a new QB in Week 1 of this season. Two years ago, I spotlighted seven teams in this space — and six went on to start new signal-callers in Week 1 of 2021. I must say, I’m pretty good at this.

With that as the backdrop, here are four NFL organizations that, in my opinion, will be looking beyond the current roster to find a new starting quarterback for the 2023 season.

Carolina Panthers

4-8 · 3rd in NFC South

QBs on current roster: Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, Matt Corral (on injured reserve)

After releasing Baker Mayfield on Monday, the Panthers have two active players in the QB room: Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker. Walker went 2-3 this season before an ankle injury sidelined him, while Darnold won his first start (and only game action) of the season in Week 12. In five starts, Walker has completed 58 percent of his passes, averaged 134.2 pass yards per game and posted a 3:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In Darnold’s lone start, he completed 57.9 percent of his pass attempts for 164 yards with one touchdown, and he also recovered his own fumble for a rushing score. Simply put, neither of these signal-callers are likely to inspire Carolina’s 2023 head coach, whether that job ultimately goes to interim coach Steve Wilks or somebody else.

Matt Corral is the wild card here. The 94th overall pick in April’s draft, Corral had a rough preseason showing before suffering a season-ending Lisfranc injury. It’s hard to say how next year’s staff will view Corral. The Panthers currently hold the No. 6 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a quarterback come off the board in that spot.

Houston Texans

1-10-1 · 4th in AFC South

QBs on current roster: Davis Mills, Kyle Allen, Jeff Driskel (on practice squad)

I’m still wondering why the Davis Mills was benched for Kyle Allen. I get that starting the season at 1-8-1 isn’t ideal, but Allen’s play over two starts hasn’t exactly validated the decision: The fifth-year journeyman, who went undrafted in 2018, has completed 59 percent of his passes for 416 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions. That equals a passer rating of 60.6. Mills hasn’t set the world on fire in 2022, but he isn’t the chief culprit for Houston’s league-worst record. This roster’s issues go far beyond the quarterback room.

That said, it appears Houston is poised to bring in new blood at the position in the coming offseason. If the Texans ultimately receive the No. 1 overall pick, I’d be hard-pressed to think they’d take anything but a quarterback. But I’ve been quite familiar with this franchise for all 21 years of its existence, and I still don’t have a strong sense on prospective plans.

Indianapolis Colts

4-8-1 · 2nd in AFC South

QBs on current roster: Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, Nick Foles

Matt Ryan has been bad in 2022. How bad? Well, he leads the league in interceptions (13) and fumbles (14). The Colts felt they were a quarterback away from being a real contender, so they brought in the former MVP. Through 13 weeks, though, Indy ranks 30th in scoring offense and 25th in total offense, looking every bit as bad as their record would indicate. To be fair, Sam Ehlinger didn’t inspire much confidence in his two starts this year, either, as evidenced by his 69.7 passer rating.

Ryan carries a dead-cap figure of $18 million in 2023, which would prevent some organizations from making a move. But the Colts have Jim Irsay, an owner who’s not afraid to walk away from a mistake. The club traded away Carson Wentz last offseason after one year at the helm and fired head coach Frank Reich following the team’s 3-5-1 start to this season. The Colts could do a number of things at the position this offseason — trade for or sign a QB in free agency, select one in the draft — but riding into Week 1 with a 38-year-old Matt Ryan under center doesn’t feel like one of them.

New Orleans Saints

4-8 · 4th in NFC South

QBs on current roster: Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Jake Luton (on practice squad)

Just last week, I wrote how New Orleans would be a great fit for Jimmy Garoppolo, whose season just ended with a broken foot in San Francisco’s win over Miami on Sunday. I still think Jimmy G could be in the cards for this club because I still think the Saints aren’t satisfied with Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton. Coming back from an ACL injury that prematurely ended his 2021 season, Winston hasn’t seen the field since Week 3 in 2022 — and before his back injury, he wasn’t all that great (4:5 TD-to-INT ratio, 79.5 passer rating). Dalton’s play has been inconsistent this season for a 4-8 Saints team that somehow isn’t eliminated from the division race, and the 12th-year vet’s set to hit free agency.

The bad news? New Orleans currently has the worst salary cap situation in 2023. The worse news? The Saints traded their 2023 first-rounder to the Eagles, a pick that currently sits at No. 5 overall. Oof — that definitely could’ve come in handy in a QB reset.

2023 DRAFT

This from Senior Bowl Director Jim Nagy:

@JimNagy_SB

Money being thrown at CFB players in portal this week is incredible. Have heard upwards of $5M+ for some skill players. It has considerably thinned-out QB class for 2023 NFL Draft.

At the time of the Supreme Courth’s NIL ruling, we said that some players would be taking a cut in pay when they came to the NFL.  It looks like it will be a significant cut for many.

ESPN’s draft experts – Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, Jr. and Matt Miller talk about those QBs:

Let’s talk through this quarterback class: How many have Round 1 grades right now?

McShay: Three, and I don’t think it will change. In some order, it will be Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Kentucky’s Will Levis. I have Young as the QB1 right now, thanks to excellent poise under duress and the arm flexibility to make off-platform throws. His size (6-foot, 194 pounds) and durability might be issues for some teams, but I think Young is a special prospect who is capable of transforming a franchise.

Stroud has fast eyes and excellent touch, timing and placement to all three levels of the field. But his efficiency dips a bit when pressured, and he’s at his best working within the confines of a structured offense. Levis has the strongest arm and the sturdiest build (6-foot-3, 232 pounds) of these three quarterbacks, though he needs to improve his pocket presence and turnover avoidance (10 interceptions).

And Young is the favorite to go No. 1 overall?

Reid: I believe so. Similar to Kyler Murray in 2019, his size will be talked about endlessly all the way up until draft day, but Young has everything else it takes to be a high-level starting quarterback in the NFL. He’s the complete package. Alabama wasn’t as talented on the perimeter this season, but Young still found ways to win games each week, throwing 27 touchdown passes and turning in a 83.7 Total QBR. He will get one more test with Kansas State in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.

What does Stroud do best?

Kiper: Throw with touch to all levels of the field. Look at the ball placement on this 42-yard touchdown pass. Stroud executes the Buckeyes’ offense to perfection, and he’s so smooth in the pocket. He doesn’t have elite arm strength, but he’s going to improve there as he grows into his 6-foot-3 frame.

I have very similar grades on all three of these quarterbacks, and Stroud will get a showcase against the best of the best as Ohio State takes on Georgia in the College Football Playoff semifinals. That means potentially two more games of tape against high-level opponents.

What are you hearing about how the NFL sees Levis?

Miller: NFL evaluators love the traits here. After all, toolsy quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Justin Herbert are among the elites in the game, and every team wants to find the next future star. Levis has arm talent that puts him in that group and the physical traits to run around — or over — defenders.

Scouts I’ve talked to love Levis’ traits and believe his pre-draft interviews will convince teams that he’s a future franchise quarterback , despite the decision-making issues that must improve. A big test awaits with Iowa in the TransPerfect Music City Bowl, if he opts to play after deciding to enter the draft.

OK, and where is the recently injured Hendon Hooker in all of this? Will the Tennessee QB’s stock drop?

McShay: I still see Hooker as the QB4 in the class. The 6-foot-4 senior suffered a torn ACL in his left knee in November, and while the injury will certainly impact his draft stock, I don’t think we will see a severe drop. Hooker was a Day 2 prospect for me even before the injury, and I still think that’s when he will get drafted — just a little bit later on Friday night than previously thought. Hooker reads the field really well, has a nice smooth delivery and knows how to layer the ball to receivers to set up yards after the catch. He only threw two interceptions this year while piling up 3,135 yards and 27 TD passes.

Who’s the wild-card QB in this class?

Reid: This is an easy one. Florida’s Anthony Richardson struggled in his only season as a full-time starter, but the potential is off the charts. At 6-4 and 232 pounds, he has a powerful arm to complement his ability as a runner, but he’s still very raw and inconsistent. Richardson — who recently declared for the draft — completed just 53.8% of his throws this season, while posting 26 total touchdowns (17 passing, nine rushing) and nine interceptions.

He’ll be the ultimate project prospect. But while he is still developing a lot of the key ingredients it takes to be successful at the next level, there’s no questioning his traits and upside. His accuracy, decision-making and consistency have to get better, and a good landing spot is vital for long-term success.

Who are the other signal-callers to know?

Kiper: How much space do I have here? It’s a really fun group, even though Michael Penix Jr. — who was my QB4 — is returning to Washington for another season.

Max Duggan (TCU) and Bo Nix (Oregon) are two of the most improved signal-callers in the country, and I could see teams taking chances on them early on Day 3. Jake Haener (Fresno State), who completed a whopping 72.6% of his passes this season, wears No. 9 and looks a little bit like Drew Brees when he’s dicing up defenses from the pocket. Jaren Hall (BYU) has thrown 51 touchdown passes and just 11 picks over the last two seasons. And Jayden Daniels (LSU) is a dual-threat quarterback who has taken a step forward as a thrower since transferring from Arizona State.

One more to watch on Day 3: Tyson Bagent, a 6-foot-3 passer from Division II Shepherd, where he just set the record for most career touchdown passes in any college division. He can spin it.

Which teams likely picking in the top 10 could go with a QB?

Miller: The Texans, Panthers, Lions and Colts all feel like locks to strongly consider quarterbacks via the draft. Then the Seahawks — who have Denver’s selection — could look that way, depending on what they decide with Geno Smith after his huge season. The Falcons could also go back to the QB well, despite drafting Desmond Ridder on Day 2 in April. And there’s always a wild card in the mix — keep an eye on the Cardinals and Raiders.

I recently talked with a general manager who expects a third of the league to make a change or key addition at quarterback during the offseason.

By the nature of the draft, 31 players will be drafted in the first round this year, but Matt Miller of ESPN.com says that right now there are only 17 true first round talents in the draft.

NFL teams will not put first-round grades on 31-plus players. Why? The sacred first-round grade is reserved for a player who would be a Day 1 pick in any recent draft year, and the number varies by team and scouting department. One NFC team told me it limits its board to just 15 first-round grades to make scouts be more critical before handing them a special grade. Round 1 grades are reserved for players who are truly worthy of the early pick, not just those who will end up being one.

So I set out to list every player with a first-round grade and ended up with 17 names. My own rule of thumb is evaluating whether each player would have been a first-round pick in every one of the past five draft classes. The list could grow or shrink over the next five months following all-star events, the scouting combine and college pro days. But for now, here’s a look at the 2023 draft class’ Round 1 grades. Players’ overall rankings are in parentheses after their names.

Quarterback (3)

Bryce Young, Alabama (No. 2)

Comp: Tua Tagovailoa

Young entered the 2022 season with high expectations as the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, and he answered the call with more than 3,000 passing yards, 27 TD throws and just five interceptions. He showed growth as a player, displaying poise, pocket awareness and field vision. There will be many questions about Young’s size (6-foot, 200 pounds), but his on-field work is that of a franchise quarterback.

C.J. Stroud, Ohio State (No. 6)

Comp: Dak Prescott

Stroud puts up big numbers in the wide-open Ohio State passing game (3,340 passing yards, 37 TD throws and six interceptions). At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, Stroud has really good touch accuracy to all levels of the field. He’s also an above-average runner and mover in the pocket when given room to operate. The hardest thing about evaluating Stroud is extrapolating his talent from the Buckeyes’ scheme and figuring out what he can do without that system around him.

Will Levis, Kentucky (No. 17)

Comp: Matthew Stafford

Levis’ numbers at Kentucky — 2,406 passing yards, 19 touchdown passes, 10 interceptions — are not good enough for the first round, but scouts love his 6-foot-3, 232-pound build, toughness, arm strength and mentality as a passer. Levis is very boom or bust, and he has to improve his decision-making.

Running back (1)

Bijan Robinson, Texas (No. 4)

Comp: Saquon Barkley

Robinson is the total package as a running back prospect. He plays with amazing patience but can also lower his shoulder with a 220-pound frame and create space for himself. Robinson’s contact balance and vision in traffic are some of the best I’ve ever seen. He has rushed for 1,580 rushing yards and 18 TDs this season, and he’s also a very good receiving threat out of the backfield (314 receiving yards). There are few players more talented than Robinson in this year’s class.

Wide receiver (3)

Jordan Addison, USC (No. 10)

Comp: Keenan Allen

Addison transferred from Pitt to USC after winning the 2021 Biletnikoff Award for best wide receiver in college football. And he has quietly put together a WR1 year playing on Pacific Standard Time, with 59 catches, 875 yards and eight touchdowns. Addison isn’t a big receiver (6-foot, 175 pounds), but he plays with great power after the catch and has the footwork to create separation in his route tree.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State (No. 12)

Comp: CeeDee Lamb

Smith-Njigba finished the 2021 season with a record-setting Rose Bowl appearance (347 receiving yards, three TDs) but has been hampered by a hamstring injury in 2022, limiting him to just five catches and 43 yards. It makes for a fascinating evaluation, but the 6-foot-1, 200-pound Smith-Njigba can still find himself in the top 15 picks. He shows excellent concentration and body control, and he can still get open even when the defense is keyed to stop him.

Quentin Johnston, TCU (No. 15)

Comp: Tee Higgins

Johnston broke onto the scene last season and followed it up with a strong 2022 while battling through an ankle injury: 53 catches, 903 yards and five touchdowns. Johnston is a big body at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, and he plays with fantastic leverage on underneath routes while showing the downfield speed and leaping ability to be a big-play threat. Johnston’s size and experience (nearly 700 career routes) have many scouts considering him the only non-slot receiver with a Round 1 grade.

Tight end (1)

Michael Mayer, Notre Dame (No. 8)

Comp: T.J. Hockenson

Mayer is a throwback three-down tight end who can line up next to the offensive tackle and clear out in the run game or bring down passes up the seam. At 6-foot-4 and 265 pounds, he has elite size and uses it to produce all over the field to the tune of 67 catches, 809 yards and nine touchdowns in 2022. Mayer is a post-up, box-out red zone threat, and while he’s not expected to run a sub-4.5-second 40-yard dash, his power, agility and instincts should keep him in the top 15 picks even at a non-premium position.

Offensive tackle (2)

Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State (No. 7)

Comp: Terron Armstead

Johnson was arguably Ohio State’s best lineman during the 2021 season while playing out of position at right guard. He moved to his natural position of left tackle for 2022 and has allowed just one sack all season. The 6-foot-6, 310-pound junior has solid quickness and balance while also playing with poise and power. He’s still ironing out his technique, but Johnson’s ceiling is the best of any 2023 offensive lineman.

Peter Skoronski, Northwestern (No. 14)

Comp: Ryan Ramczyk

The 6-foot-4, 315-pound left tackle plays with NFL-caliber power and heavy hands but has good mobility at the second level in the run game. Skoronski’s lack of length will be questioned by some teams, but he’s a powerhouse blocker in the run and pass game and is positioned to be a Year 1 starter in the NFL. He has allowed just three sacks over 33 career starts.

Interior offensive line (0)

Positional value has hit the interior of the offensive line, as NFL teams find high-level starters on Days 2 and 3 of the draft. The 2023 class features talented guards and centers — players like O’Cyrus Torrence (Florida), Luke Wypler (Ohio State) and John Michael Schmitz (Minnesota) — who could sneak into Round 1 but don’t carry an across-the-board first-round grade.

Edge rusher (3)

Will Anderson Jr., Alabama (No. 1)

Comp: Von Miller

A menace off the edge, Anderson saw his role increase in 2022 when the Alabama coaches needed more interior pressure and called on No. 31 to do the dirty work. Over the past two seasons, the 6-foot-4, 243-pounder has produced 27.5 sacks, 56 tackles for loss, 124 pressures, a forced fumble and an interception. He shows unstoppable first-step quickness and has a great understanding of pass-rush angles and leverage. Yes, Anderson misses some tackles in the backfield, but he is a complete pass-rusher who likely would have been the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft.

Myles Murphy, Clemson (No. 5)

Comp: Bradley Chubb

Murphy has produced from Day 1 at Clemson, working into the rotation as a true freshman. He has filled the stat sheet with 18.5 sacks and 31 tackles for loss over three seasons while developing rare speed and power. The 6-foot-5, 275-pound Murphy is widely expected to run in the low-4.6s in the 40-yard dash at the combine, too. NFL teams are excited about his pass-rush tools and upside, given his rare burst, power and agility.

Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech (No. 13)

Comp: Frank Clark

One of the hottest draft risers of the 2022 season, Wilson brings a great combination of length, quickness off the ball and relentless pursuit mentality. Over the past two years, the 6-foot-6, 275-pounder has 14 sacks, 34.5 tackles for loss and 78 pressures while dominating at the point of attack. He’s one of the safer defensive prospects in the class, as his positional tools are already so well developed. Wilson should enter the NFL as a solid starter with the upside to become a truly special player.

Defensive tackle (2)

Jalen Carter, Georgia (No. 3)

Comp: Fletcher Cox

The 2021 Georgia defense had five players selected in the first round of the 2022 draft, and Carter (not eligible in that draft) might have actually been the best defender on the team. At 6-foot-3 and 310 pounds, he has great first-step quickness and a powerful frame that can split double teams. Carter battled ankle and knee injuries this season and platooned on a deep Georgia defense last year, but he has still accumulated six sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss in the past two seasons.

Bryan Bresee, Clemson (No. 9)

Comp: Leonard Williams

Bresee has missed three games this year because of injury and bereavement but has still shown a massive impact when on the field. At 6-foot-5 and 300 pounds, Bresee has developed power to his game that pairs well with his initial quickness and burst. He’s a true three-down interior defender who will immediately boost both the run and pass defense of an NFL scheme. He has 2.5 sacks and 4.5 tackles for loss this season.

Linebacker (0)

The 2023 linebacker class is talented, and there are several players likely to be drafted in the first round — but none of them have a true Round 1 grade at this time. Players in contention for Day 1 picks are Arkansas’ Drew Sanders and Clemson’s Trenton Simpson.

Cornerback (2)

Joey Porter Jr., Penn State (No. 11)

Comp: Marlon Humphrey

Porter has standout instincts and physicality. The 6-foot-2, 200-pound junior has already declared for the draft after breaking up 11 passes on limited targets — opposing offenses stayed away from him. Porter has the length, toughness, speed and timing to be a top-tier NFL cornerback.

Kelee Ringo, Georgia (No. 16)

Comp: Trevon Diggs

Ringo is NFL ready with a big frame (6-foot-2, 210 pounds) and great ability to redirect receivers at the line of scrimmage. He’s tough, physical and instinctive in coverage, and he’s able to stay in phase with pro-caliber receivers. Ringo has a legitimate shot at CB1, depending on how the pre-draft process and combine testing go. He has four interceptions and 12 pass breakups over the past two seasons.

Safety (0)

The safety class lacks a consensus top player (like Kyle Hamilton in 2022), and it could not have a first-rounder when it’s all said and done. Alabama’s Brian Branch is talented as a versatile back-end defender, but his inconsistency down the stretch could kick his draft stock down a round. Texas A&M’s Antonio Johnson is also a contender but looks like a Round 2 player at this time.