If The Season Ended Today in the AFC, we note that the 6-6 Patriots are two game out of the playoffs, while 6-6 is the playoff line in the NFC.  This is partly because all three NFL teams with fewer than three wins (the Jets, Cincinnati, the Chargers) are all in the AFC:

                                            W-L        Conf

Pittsburgh        North           11-1         8-0

x-Kansas City West            11-1         9-1

Buffalo            East               9-3         6-2

Tennessee      South             8-4         6-4

Cleveland        WC1              9-3         6-3

Miami              WC2              8-4         5-3

Indianapolis     WC3              8-4         4-4

Las Vegas                             7-5         5-3

Baltimore                               7-5         4-5

New England                        6-6         5-4

Even with their loss to Cleveland, the Titans still lead in the AFC South, for now.

We looked it up, the AFC leads the NFC 27-22 in the interconference series with 15 games to go.  Most of that advantage comes from the AFC North being 9-3 against the NFC East, even after Washington’s win over the Steelers.

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

EDGE KHALIL MACK has a shoulder injury as the reeling Bears prepare to host the Texans.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Bears defensive end Khalil Mack did not practice on Wednesday with a shoulder injury that head coach Matt Nagy called “day-to-day.”

Mack was questionable for last Sunday’s game against the Lions with a Back injury. He didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, but was limited on Friday. Mack played 55 snaps in the loss to Detroit but was held off the stats sheet.

Mack was one of several Bears who didn’t practice on Monday. Cornerback Buster Skrine is in concussion protocol and outside linebacker James Vaughters has a knee injury. Tight end Jimmy Graham, defensive tackle Akiem Hicks, and inside linebacker Danny Trevathan all received veteran rest days. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney was absent for personal reasons.

Wide receiver Allen Robinson (knee), left tackle Charles Leno (toe), and tight end J.P. Holtz (shoulder/knee) were all limited.

GREEN BAY

Funny.

@TomSilverstein

#Packers QB Aaron Rodgers joked that a memory of his one year with current #Lions interim coach Darrell Bevell when Bevell was GB QB coach was being told to go find Brett Favre in the building because Bevell need to talk with him.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

This is what Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post heard as he listened to Troy Aikman comment on the Cowboys Thursday night:

It rings loudest when the criticism is from close to home.

Troy Aikman sounded disgusted with the Dallas Cowboys as it became clear Tuesday night that they were headed to a loss against the Baltimore Ravens, who ran through a soft defense for 294 yards on the way to a 34-17 victory.

“I wouldn’t say this is necessarily over, but it’s hard to keep saying that when you’re not winning football games,” Aikman said from his chair as the FOX’s lead NFL color commentator. “I just don’t know where this organization … where they go. There’s just so many things that have to be addressed this offseason.”

Aikman won three Super Bowls with the Cowboys, who haven’t been back since his retirement in 2000. His criticisms appeared to be directed at owner/general manager Jerry Jones.

The biggest item on the to-do list is sorting out the quarterback situation.

The Cowboys couldn’t reach a contract extension with Dak Prescott last offseason and had to franchise tag him. He suffered a season-ending compound ankle fracture in Week 5. So what happens now?

Does Prescott lower his demands? Are the Cowboys really going to offer a better contract off an injury than when he was healthy? Or do the Cowboys use their inevitable high first-round draft pick on a quarterback and let Prescott go to free agency?

Then there is the Mike McCarthy dilemma. He was a highly sought after second-chance head coach whose first season in Dallas has been a disaster full of questionable in-game decisions.

Aikman said that McCarthy is more interested in checking off a certain number of rushing attempts than in how many yards those runs produce.

McCarthy signed a five-year, $30 million contract, according to multiple reports, so that’s a lot of sunk cost, even for the free-spending Jones. Plus, it’s a lot of egg on his face for hiring the wrong coach when an excuse could be made that he played most of the season with backup quarterbacks, including starting third- and fourth-stringers.

The Cowboys defense also needs a makeover.

McCarthy pal Mike Nolan’s schemes were a big change and the unit got off to a historically bad start – a franchise-record 146 points allowed through the first four games. It hasn’t gotten much better since, as Ravens tackle Orlando Brown shouted “Easy money!” into the television cameras after the Cowboys offered little resistance against a fourth-quarter touchdown run.

The Cowboys have a lot of high-guarantee contracts that don’t leave much wiggle room for salary cap flexibility if they decided to tear it down and start over. The current roster – albeit a healthier version, especially on the decimated offensive line and at quarterback – is pretty much the 2021 roster.

PHILADELPHIA

There is a difference of opinion about the current value of QB CARSON WENTZ (and his contract) as these two tweets show.

First, Eagles writer Eliot Shorr Parks:

@EliotShorrParks

The #Eagles will likely be able to get a 1st round pick for Carson Wentz if they decide to trade him this offseason. At worst a 2nd round pick. His contract for a new team isn’t bad and he is very easy for a HC/GM to talk themselves into.

But Will Brinson of CBS Sports remembers how the Texans had to get rid of Brock Osweiler:

@WillBrinson

The Eagles are more likely to give up a first round pick WITH Carson Wentz than they are getting one back for him.

WASHINGTON

The road to the playoffs got harder for the WFT in the aftermath of Monday’s big win with news that RB ANTONIO GIBSON did not suffer a slight case of turf toe.

Washington Football Team running back Antonio Gibson suffered a turf toe injury in Monday night’s 23-17 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the star rookie’s status is uncertain for Week 14, a source confirmed to ESPN.

NFL Network first reported Wednesday that Gibson has a turf toe injury.

Gibson suffered the injury on his first carry, hobbled off the field and never returned. He had the toe taped up on the sideline, but he was seen limping while testing it.

Gibson gained 13 yards on the play, highlighting what Washington had done well in winning two consecutive games. The team likes to use jet action with running back J.D. McKissic to slow the defense and hand it to Gibson going the other way.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

Terry Fontenot of the Saints is among those who will get an interview for the Falcons GM job.  D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Prospects to replace ex-Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff are starting to emerge.

Terry Fontenot, the Saints vice president/assistant general manager-pro personnel; Rick Smith, a former Houston Texans general manager; and Brad Holmes, Rams director of college scouting, will be interviewed by the Falcons, according to a person within the NFL familiar with the situation.

Dimitroff and coach Dan Quinn were fired Oct. 11 after the team started 0-5. They were viewed as co-team builders. Dimitroff was with the Falcons from 2008-20, in the winningest era of the franchise’s history and help them reach two NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl.

All three are candidates that satisfy the Rooney Rule.

CAROLINA

The Panthers bye week outbreak last week happened when a group of players got together “outside the facility.” Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Carolina became one of the many teams affected by the COVID-19 outbreak this week when it placed eight players on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and the NFL now believes it has an explanation for the spread.

NFL chief medical officer Dr. Allen Sills said Wednesday the Panthers’ COVID-19 transmission was linked back “to some gathering of players outside the team facility” during Carolina’s bye week, per The Athletic’s Joe Person.

“We’ve worked with the club on that,” Sills said, via Person. “Worked with the involved individuals and I think we’ll continue to see improvement there (with) repeated messaging” regarding what players should and shouldn’t do when away from the team’s facility.

The Panthers reported no new positive tests overnight into Tuesday, per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. As of now, key offensive players D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel are among those placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

Carolina could face fines and/or loss of a draft pick for their players’ actions. The Las Vegas Raiders were fined $500,000 as an organization, coach Jon Gruden was hit with a $150,000 fine, and the team was stripped of a sixth-round pick for its COVID-19 protocol violations in early November. Those fines and the loss of the pick were due to the Raiders being a repeat offender in violating protocol.

This outbreak is Carolina’s first significant issue related to COVID-19.

NEW ORLEANS

Coach Sean Payton does not provide clarity about the return of QB DREW BREES.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Saints quarterback Drew Brees is eligible to return to practice on Friday (not today), and he’s eligible to play as soon as Sunday at Philadelphia.

So when will he be back from multiple broken ribs and a collapsed lung, and who will make the decision?

“I would imagine like anything else it would be the doctors and the player,” Saint coach Sean Payton said during a Tuesday appearance on PFT PM. “I know we kind of stay up to speed on it. There’s a little bit with his injury of like watching spaghetti boil where you’ve gotta let it heal and it’s a little different than maybe soft tissue or a bone bruise . . . . There’s X amount of time that’s needed. This is the week he’s eligible to come off of Reserve/Injured. The rule this year was if someone goes on you’re on for a three-week minimum. But each day we’ll get an update as to how he’s doing. A lot of it is, ‘How does it feel?’ I’ve you’ve ever like really thrown a baseball, a football, or anything and then you realize your ribcage and all the soft tissue and muscles surrounding it. It’s pretty painful. And that’s the thing is to be able to function without those side effects or things that might hurt your play.”

It’s hard to envision Brees returning for Sunday’s game at Philadelphia. It’s impossible to envision Brees missing the following Sunday’s game, a showdown with the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.

“Drew’s the guy and if he says he can go then he’s gonna go,” quarterback Taysom Hill told PFT after Sunday’s win over the Falcons. “I think I’m in a situation where I’ve got to prepare as if I’m gonna go in case he can’t.”

Brees surely wants to play ASAFP. The Saints surely want to know he’ll be healthy and effective when he does return. And the Saints likely prefer a 100-percent Hill over a diminished Brees.

The Saints are 8-0 without Brees over the last two seasons.

NFC WEST

SEATTLE

Once the consensus pick for MVP, QB RUSSELL WILSON has fallen behind Bills QB JOSH ALLEN (not that either is going to win).  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Let Russ sink.

The odds-on MVP favorite for much of the season, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson continues to slide in the betting odds for the league’s top individual award.

Via PointsBet.com, Wilson has dropped from +700 last week to +2000 this week, putting him fourth on the list behind Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (-500, from -400 last week), Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (+460, from +600 last week), and Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+1500, from +3300 last week).

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has fallen from +2500 to +5000. Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, without playing, has gone from +10000 to +8200.

Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, who wasn’t on the board a week ago, lands at +10000.

The odds surely will adjust on a weekly basis. Barring injury or implosion, however, Mahomes will continue to be the clear favorite for the award.

AFC WEST

DENVER

CB A.J. BOUYE has been suspended into the 2021 season.  Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com:

Denver Broncos cornerback A.J. Bouye has been suspended for six games for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing substances.

The NFL made the suspension official Wednesday with a statement, adding that Bouye would be “able to participate in offseason and preseason practices and games.”

It means Bouye, who was acquired in a trade with the Jacksonville Jaguars this offseason, will miss the Broncos’ final four games of this season and would have to sit out the first two games of the 2021 season.

According to sources, Bouye is in a similar situation as Houston Texans wide receiver Will Fuller V and Texans cornerback Bradley Roby, who were suspended for six games each last week for violations of the policy.

In a statement Fuller said, in part: “Earlier this year, I sought treatment from a medical professional who prescribed medication that he believed to be permitted under the NFL’s drug policy. As it turns out, my trust in this professional was misplaced because this medication was NOT a permitted substance under the NFL Policy on Performance Enhancing Substances.”

On Twitter Roby had posted: “(A) few months ago, I unknowingly used a product that was contaminated with a banned substance by the NFL. I recognize that it is my job to know, and be responsible for, everything I put in my body.”

Fuller’s and Roby’s suspensions will cover their final five games this year and the season opener in 2021. Bouye and Fuller were teammates with the Texans in 2016.

The suspension means Bouye, who is 29 and has a $13 million base salary this season (he’ll lose just over $3 million of that this year with the suspension), will have played in just seven games this season. He missed four games with a shoulder injury this season and missed the Broncos’ loss in Atlanta when he was in the concussion protocol.

He has struggled at times in his return from each of those injuries and has 21 tackles this season.

With cornerback Bryce Callahan (foot) on injured reserve, Bouye’s suspension would mean the already injury-riddled Broncos defense would also be without its starting two cornerbacks.

LAS VEGAS

Big game in the Wild Card race this week as 7-5 Las Vegas can secure the tiebreaker advantage with 8-4 Indy.  But if they lose, they are two back of the Colts and maybe Miami and Tennessee.

But they might not have ace RB JOHN JACOBS.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Raiders head coach Jon Gruden sounded pessimistic on Monday about getting running back Josh Jacobs back from a sprained ankle for Sunday’s game against the Colts and Wednesday didn’t bring any developments to push that feeling in a different direction.

Jacobs did not take part in the team’s first on-field work of the week. Jacobs was out of practice all of last week after hurting his ankle in the team’s Week 12 loss to the Falcons. Devontae Booker, Jalen Richard, and Theo Riddick all saw time in his place in last Sunday’s 31-28 win over the Jets.

Gruden also said that he doesn’t expect safety Johnathan Abram, who missed last Sunday with a knee injury, to play, but there was more positive news on that front. Abram was able to practice on a limited basis.

Cornerback Damon Arnette was out due to a concussion and right tackle Trent Brown practiced for the first time since coming off the reserve/COVID-19 list.

AFC EAST

NEW YORK JETS

Coach Adam Gase was funked after former DC Gregg Williams brought the house.  Rich Cimini of ESPN.com:

New York Jets coach Adam Gase was so “pissed” about the last-second loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday that it sent him and his coaches into a “funk.”

On Wednesday, Gase called it one of the toughest losses of his coaching career, admitting it has been difficult to move past it. He found it hard to adhere to the 24-hour rule, a coaching bromide.

“At the start of my career, I heard that for seven years: You have 24 hours to get over it,” he said. “I think the only time I’ve ever been involved in a loss like this was to end a playoff game, so I could be pissed as long as I wanted to because nobody cares.

“It’s tough. It’s tough. Our players will do a good job and they will respond the right way. They have through this whole thing. As coaches, we have to do the same thing.”

Gase responded to the 31-28 loss by firing defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who decided to call an all-out blitz while trying to protect a four-point lead. The unnecessary gamble proved disastrous — a 46-yard touchdown reception by Henry Ruggs III with five seconds left.

Gase didn’t have any team meetings on Monday or Tuesday because he said he wanted to give the players some time and space to get over the loss, which dropped the Jets to 0-12. Because of COVID-19 protocols, the players weren’t allowed in the facility.

“Doing the virtual meetings, that’s probably the one thing that’s annoying, because our guys help the coaches pull you out of the funk because those guys come in here with the energy they need to come in here with, and they’re ready to go. That helps more than anything.”

Asked if he was in a funk after the game, Gase said, “Yeah. I was pissed. I felt like our guys played well enough to win.”

Gase didn’t mention Williams by name, but it was clearly a reference to his former defensive boss, whose playcall in that situation has been widely criticized. On Monday, Gase second-guessed himself for not calling a timeout to discuss the call with Williams.

Cornerback Lamar Jackson — an undrafted rookie — was the player torched by Ruggs in single coverage, with no safety help. Safety Marcus Maye, a team captain, openly questioned the call after the game.

“I’m confident Lamar will bounce back,” Gase said. “He’s a strong kid. That’s all he’s done all year. He’s a fighter. He didn’t get to this place and end up starting on this team without being mentally tough.”

Is it cruel to say that Gase is an expert on losing?

THIS AND THAT

AIKMAN RATINGS THRU WEEK 13

Not only did the Steelers tumble from the ranks of the unbeaten on Monday, they also fell out of first in the Aikman Combined Ratings.  The Saints, winners of nine in a row, are now 1^st in the Aikmans for the first time this season.

New Orleans and Pittsburgh are now separated by just 0.6 points, but have a gap of about three points from a cluster of the next five clubs.  The Rams, Packers and Chiefs are teams that could be expected in that group, joined by the Buccaneers and Cardinals who are tracking higher in the Aikmans than their won-loss record would suggest.

The Saints are the first team to appear in the top 5 in both Aikman Offense and Aikman Defense at the same time this season.  New Orleans ranks 5^th in both.

The Packers have displaced the Chiefs in first place in Aikman Offense – each team helmed by an MVP-candidate quarterback.

The Steelers remain on top of Aikman Defense with the Dolphins jumping from 4^th to 2^ndbehind them.  Miami is an example of an “Aikman” defense.  The NFL’s yards-only method considers Miami only to be middle-of-the-pack (16^th), but the Dolphins are in the top three in points allowed, takeways and red zone defense to rise above that level in the Aikmans.

1          10-2           Saints                   93.5         71.5        165.0                12 1              13

2          11-1           Steelers                              86.8         77.6        164.4                21 3              24

3              7-5          Buccaneers         91.3        70.2        161.5                18 7              25

4              8-4          Rams                    87.5         73.2        160.7                  3 2              5

5              6-6          Cardinals              95.4        65.1        160.5                  6 18           24

6              9-3          Packers                98.2         61.6        159.8                  2 11           13

7          11-1           Chiefs                  96.7         62.7        159.4                  1 17           18

8              6-6          Vikings                 92.2         66.5        158.7                  4 23           27

9              8-4          Dolphins              83.0        73.3        156.3                28 16           44

10           9-3          Browns                90.9         64.6        155.5                16 19           35

11           8-4          Colts                     86.0         69.3        155.3                13 5              18

12           7-5          Ravens                84.2         69.5        153.7                23 8              31

13           9-3          Bills                       90.6         62.1        152.7                10 21           31

14           8-4          Titans                   96.4         56.0        152.4                  5 25           30

15           8-4          Seahawks            92.3        59.6        151.9                  8 31           39

16           5-7          Washington        79.7        72.0        151.7                26 4              30

17           5-7          49ers                    84.0         66.9        150.9                14 6              20

18           6-6          Patriots                84.2         65.6        149.8                22 12           34

19           4-8          Falcons                 85.4        61.5        146.9                11 27           38

20           5-7          Giants                  77.0         69.6        146.6                31 10           41

21           3-9          Chargers              84.6        61.6        146.2                  7 9              16

22           7-5          Raiders                89.5         56.4        145.9                15 22           37

23           4-8          Panthers              84.9        59.7        144.6                20 20           40

24           5-7          Bears                    77.6         66.6        144.2                30 15           45

25           4-8          Texans                 86.4         56.1        142.5                16 30           46

26           3-8-1      Eagles                  78.2         63.7        141.9                29 13           42

27           5-7          Lions                     85.9         55.8        141.7                19 28           47

28           4-8          Broncos                72.5        65.5        138.0                25 14           39

29           1-11       Jaguars                80.9         56.7        137.6                24 32           56

30           2-9-1      Bengals                76.1         58.5        134.6                27 26           53

31           3-9          Cowboys             79.4        53.9        133.3                  9 24           33

32           0-12        Jets                      70.1         62.8        132.9                32 29           61

TOP OF THE DRAFT

Mel Kiper and Todd McShay of ESPN.com discuss the top 10 picks for 2021:

As the 2021 NFL draft draws closer — we’re 142 days away from the start of Round 1 on April 29 — it’s officially mock draft season.

The winless Jets remain the favorite to land the No. 1 pick, and all signs are point toward them drafting a new quarterback. But what happens next? How do the Bengals help Joe Burrow? What do the Cowboys do with a potential top-five pick? Will the Eagles go back to the wide receiver well? Is it time for the Panthers to think offense? And could the Lions really draft a quarterback?

As we look ahead to April, NFL draft analysts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay answer those questions with their first mini mock draft, debating potential picks for teams primed to draft in the top 10 before arriving at a consensus pick in each slot. They begin with the Jets.

1. New York Jets (0-12)

The consensus pick: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

Kiper: This has to be Trevor Lawrence, right, Todd? I know the Jets have Sam Darnold, but can they really pass up Lawrence? He is the clear No. 1 quarterback in this class, a generational talent.

McShay: Well, let’s take a step back. It really comes down to whether the Jets believe Darnold is still their guy. Can he take them to a Super Bowl with the right supporting cast? Are they confident in where he is mentally? If they still have faith in him as their quarterback of the future, they could trade back and build their roster around him. Lawrence is extremely talented, but Darnold is still only 23 years old. This is not an easy call.

Kiper: It’s important to note that general manager Joe Douglas and coach Adam Gase — who’s on the hot seat — don’t have ties to Darnold. They didn’t draft him. They can reboot the franchise with a new quarterback. And I’d do that for Lawrence. Would you?

McShay: Lawrence is the best quarterback prospect I’ve seen in years — he has my highest QB grade since Andrew Luck in 2012 — and the top prospect in this class by a good margin. So, yes, if the Jets really don’t think Darnold is their guy, they have to take Lawrence. What do you think they could get in a Darnold trade, Mel?

Kiper: The obvious comparison is to what Arizona got in the Josh Rosen trade during the draft in 2019 — a second- and fifth-round pick. That came after the Cardinals had already drafted Kyler Murray, so they didn’t have much leverage with the Dolphins. The Jets won’t have much leverage, either, if they get the No. 1 pick. That would be a fair return. I do think the offseason market will help them. Teams with veteran quarterbacks — New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and San Francisco come to mind — could make sense as trade partners.

McShay: And if the Jets win a game and fall to the No. 2 pick, I’d keep Darnold, trade back for more picks and help him rather than draft Justin Fields (Ohio State). They have four first-round picks over the next two years to fill the holes around him, and a trade down would only add to that stockpile.

Kiper: Interesting. I’d take Fields over Darnold, but I think I’d rather have a 23-year-old Darnold right now than Trey Lance (North Dakota State) or Zach Wilson (BYU) in this class. I believe in his talent. But I also believe that Lawrence is the better prospect, and I don’t see him staying in school for another year. He’s the No. 1 pick.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-11)

The consensus pick: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

McShay: The Jaguars would be in a great spot at No. 2. They’ll have a new general manager and possibly a new coach. What are you thinking here, Mel?

Kiper: Look at Jacksonville’s recent history of top-five picks. Luke Joeckel, Blake Bortles, Dante Fowler Jr., Jalen Ramsey, Leonard Fournette — none of those guys are still on the roster. The Jaguars have a lot of needs, but the biggest hole is at quarterback. It’s not going to be Gardner Minshew. It’s not Jake Luton or Mike Glennon. They really have to get their guy. It has to be Fields if they get this pick.

McShay: Yeah, I would say that’s the play. But I’ll also admit that Fields’ game against Indiana scared me a little bit. He had as many touchdowns as incompletions entering that game (11), but then he threw three interceptions, took five sacks and completed just 60% of his passes against the Hoosiers. It just makes you wonder. That said, in this spot and with Lawrence off the board, Fields is the guy. He’s my No. 2 prospect overall and fills a massive need.

Kiper: You’re totally right; he had a poor game. Scouts will study that one hard. Were the interceptions just bad throws or a symptom of bigger issues? What I liked to see there is what he can bring with his feet — he rushed for 78 yards and a score. He’s a really good athlete. He can affect games in multiple ways. Ultimately, while he hasn’t closed the gulf with Lawrence, he has created separation as the No. 2 quarterback in this class. Do you agree?

McShay: Yes. It’s really an interesting QB class, and I think we could see five go in first round when it’s all said and done. After Lawrence and Fields, Lance, Wilson and Mac Jones (Alabama) have a good chance to be Day 1 selections. Kyle Trask (Florida) could even slide in there. But Fields is the clear No. 2 guy, thanks to his downfield accuracy and ability to throw off-schedule. Jacksonville can build around him.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (2-9-1)

The consensus pick: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

Kiper: This might be the easiest pick of the top 10 — unless Cincinnati gets wowed by a trade offer from a team looking to move up.

McShay: Offensive tackle Penei Sewell (Oregon) is a no-brainer. It was frustrating to watch the Bengals’ pass protection in front of Joe Burrow this year before the rookie No. 1 overall pick went down with a knee injury. When you invest a top pick in a franchise QB, you have to protect him. Cincinnati hasn’t — yet. Burrow took 32 sacks in 10 games, the third most in the NFL at the time. Sewell opted out of the 2020 season, but we’ve seen what he can do, and he’d be a major boost to an offensive line in need of talent.

Kiper: We don’t need to spend too long debating this one, though cornerback could be an option if the Bengals fall in love with Patrick Surtain II (Alabama) or Caleb Farley (Virginia Tech) or Shaun Wade (Ohio State). What I wrote last week about Sewell potentially being their new Anthony Munoz still stands. This is all about helping your young quarterback.

4. Los Angeles Chargers (3-9)

The consensus pick: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

McShay: Are we finally going to disagree on a pick? Personally, I think the Chargers could use a linebacker, even after drafting Kenneth Murray in Round 1 in April. What do you think of Micah Parsons out of Penn State here? He’s an impact player.

Kiper: I like Parsons a lot — he’s a tackling machine — but I question the fit with Murray. Are they really going to take another off-ball linebacker this early? Parsons has more upside as a pass-rusher than Murray, but general manager Tom Telesco could look to help Justin Herbert instead. I think this is a spot to watch for one of the elite pass-catchers — DeVonta Smith (Alabama), Ja’Marr Chase (LSU) or Kyle Pitts (Florida).

McShay: OK, I can see that. Los Angeles needs difference-makers on both sides of the ball, and if they go with the offensive side, there are plenty of talented receivers available here. I have Chase slightly ahead of Smith, and he’d fit in nicely alongside Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the passing game. Another opt-out this season, Chase is explosive off the line and tracks the ball so well. How would you rank the wide receivers at the top, Mel?

Kiper: It’s really close with Smith and Chase. They’re essentially 1A and 1B. I can see why you like Chase a little bit more, but Smith is just so productive. All he does is score touchdowns — he has 15 this season. Could you imagine Smith or Chase on the field with Allen and Williams in 2021? The Chargers are in a fantastic spot to get their quarterback some help.

McShay: A lot of good options here, but I’d go with Chase.

Kiper: I can live with that. Allen, Williams and Chase would instantly become one of the NFL’s best receiving trios, though Williams will be a free agent in 2022. This is definitely a spot to watch for a potential trade up as well.

5. Dallas Cowboys (3-9)

The consensus pick: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

Kiper: OK, so who’s still left on the board? I want to find fits for Parsons, Smith, Pitts and Surtain soon. Are you thinking defense for Dallas? Is quarterback an option?

McShay: The Cowboys need to figure out the Dak Prescott contract situation. He’s a free agent after the season. The good news is they will know whether they need to draft a signal-caller by the time the draft rolls around. If they don’t re-sign Prescott, I think Wilson could make some sense here. I really like his game, and he’s going to rise over the next few months. But if they’re going to give Prescott a long-term deal, the defense can’t be ignored with this pick.

Kiper: I don’t see the Cowboys going with a quarterback. They have made it clear multiple times that Prescott is their guy. I’m inclined to believe them. And really, with Lawrence and Fields off the board, I don’t have top-five grades on Wilson or Lance. Let’s go with the other side of the ball here.

McShay: Defensive back has been a need for years in Dallas. Could Surtain be the answer? He’s not having the best year at Alabama, but he’s the top corner in the draft and can take away opposing No. 1 receivers. That’s something the Cowboys haven’t had. But there’s also just a ton of weak spots on this defense, so someone like Parsons could fit too.

Kiper: Surtain should be an option, but the Cowboys got a steal in 2020 second-rounder Trevon Diggs, who was having a good year before he broke his foot last month. Would they really go corner again? That’s why I’d lean toward Parsons. Yes, Dallas has used valuable picks on linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch, but Parsons is a better player right now. Vander Esch has had problems staying on the field, and Smith hasn’t lived up to his big contract. The Cowboys could move on from him as soon as this offseason.

McShay: Another opt-out, Parsons does a little bit of everything, and the Cowboys could use a little bit of everything. He can drop in coverage and stay with tight ends. He can be disruptive against the run and wrap up running backs turning the corner. And he can close on the quarterback when turned loose on a blitz.

Kiper: You know, really, the Cowboys got unlucky that there isn’t a premier edge rusher in this class. That’s what they need. But I don’t see a top-five or even top-10 pass-rusher in the 2021 group. Gregory Rousseau (Miami FL) and Kwity Paye (Michigan) are at the top of this class, but they’re not elite guys. I just don’t see Parsons getting past No. 5.

6. Atlanta Falcons (4-8)

The consensus pick: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

McShay: Atlanta is another team that will have a new general manager and coaching staff. And another team that has an underwhelming defense. Where do you see the Falcons’ needs, Mel?

Kiper: Cornerback, for sure. Edge rusher; free-agent signing Dante Fowler Jr. hasn’t worked out. Linebacker. Maybe tight end. But this is a team that gives up 6.2 yards per play — second worst in the league behind Jacksonville — so we have to go best defender left on the board. The two names that stuck out to me: Surtain and linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Notre Dame).

McShay: Oh, you’re finally coming around on Owusu-Koramoah? I love this dude’s tape. He’s so fast and instinctive. But I’ll be the first to admit this is high for him, and the sixth spot seems like an opportunity to move back, get some more picks and potentially still land Owusu-Koramoah.

Kiper: Every fan base loves to trade down, but it’s harder than it is on paper. General managers have to find teams that want to move up. I do think we could see teams try to get into the top 10 for Pitts or one of the wide receivers. They are special talents. But since we’re not doing trades here, are you thinking Surtain like I am, Todd?

McShay: Yeah, if it’s not a trade down, it has to be Surtain, even after drafting A.J. Terrell in Round 1 in April. Surtain brings shutdown corner upside to a defense searching for impact players, and he’s the best prospect available on that side of the ball. Lock it in and feel good about it.

7. Philadelphia Eagles (3-8-1)

The consensus pick: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Kiper: The Eagles have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league. We could go a bunch of different ways here, Todd. My first thought was offensive line, but I don’t have a top-10 grade on another lineman. Do you?

McShay: Not unless Philly is willing to make a big reach. Samuel Cosmi (Texas) and Rashawn Slater (Northwestern) are the next two on my board, but neither should be in consideration at No. 7. The Eagles have taken 53 sacks, the most in the league and nine more than the next-highest team. That’s ugly, but the value just isn’t here to make a fix.

Kiper: That’s fair, though I like Cosmi and Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech) as top-20 picks. If Surtain was still on the board, he’d be the pick as the corner opposite Darius Slay. This is a little high for my No. 2 corner Farley, who’s more like a mid-first-rounder. This is high for the edge rushers as well. What do you think about a wideout here, Todd? My guy DeVonta Smith is still on the board.

McShay: If Smith and Jaylen Waddle go in the first round next April, that’s four first-round Alabama wide receivers in two years. And of the bunch, Smith is probably the most consistent. He just pops off the line of scrimmage and accelerates. I know the Eagles took Jalen Reagor in the first round in April, but wideout is still a need. J.J. Arcega Whiteside — a second-rounder in 2019 — has 12 catches in two seasons, Alshon Jeffery is going to be 31 years old next season and Travis Fulgham has been up and down all year.

Kiper: The last time a team took a receiver in the first round in back-to-back years was 2005, when the Falcons, Lions and Jaguars all did it. That’s the move here. I’m not sure Reagor is a No. 1 wideout — he was No. 41 on my final 2020 Big Board — but he’d be a solid No. 2. Smith absolutely is a No. 1. He’s going to help Carson Wentz or Jalen Hurts or whomever is under center. He can be a superstar.

8. Carolina Panthers (4-8)

The consensus pick: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

McShay: In April, Carolina was the first NFL team in the modern era to use all of its draft picks on defensive players. The Panthers added seven, starting with tackle Derrick Brown. So we have to be thinking offense here, right?

Kiper: I think so. To me, this pick is pretty clear. There’s one more guy left on my board with an elite grade, and it’s at a position of need for the Panthers. Let’s get them an elite tight end in Pitts. What do you think, Todd?

McShay: He’s the perfect pick for Carolina. I don’t think it’s far-fetched to say he is the most difficult guy to cover in college football this season because of his size, separation ability and hands. The offensive line could use help, but I still think Cosmi is a bit overrated. Minnesota wide receiver Rashod Bateman is in play — he’s a lot like JuJu Smith-Schuster — as is Alabama’s Waddle. But Pitts is special.

Kiper: You like Bateman a little more than me — he’s my sixth-ranked receiver. Carolina, though, has 20 total catches from tight ends this season, led by Ian Thomas’ 13. Greg Olsen is long gone. Pitts would be a great pick to give Teddy Bridgewater a versatile weapon and nightmare for opposing defenses to cover.

McShay: Only 10 tight ends have ever been drafted in the top eight picks, but between his talent and Carolina’s need for playmaking pass-catchers, Pitts should be No. 11.

9. Detroit Lions (5-7)

The consensus pick: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

Kiper: This is an interesting spot, and the Lions will have a new coach and general manager in 2021. It’s impossible to know for sure what they’re going to do. But my mind keeps going back to quarterback. Matthew Stafford is in his 12th season in Detroit. Lance and Wilson are still available. This franchise could go for a full reboot.

McShay: Zach Wilson makes a lot of sense. He’s the most underrated quarterback in the entire class, and I think he will continue to rise as we get closer to April. Stafford has been playing well, but he turns 33 in the offseason, and this is an opportunity for the Lions to get their next QB.

Kiper: I have Lance ranked higher right now, but it’s close and it’s a long time until draft day. I could see Wilson jumping him. Stafford, meanwhile, is signed through 2022, but there’s a scenario in which the Lions move on and either trade or release him this offseason. That would give the rookie quarterback a fresh start under a new regime. Todd, if they decided to stick with Stafford, what are the positions they should target here?

McShay: If the Lions felt good about Rousseau or Paye, either might help address a pass rush that has recorded just 18 sacks this season. Maybe wide receiver? Waddle is still available, and he’s the most elusive wideout in the class. Bateman is on the board, too. Remember, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr. and Danny Amendola are all set to be free agents after the season.

Kiper: Yeah, I’m down to Lance, Wilson or Waddle with this pick. Lance is the upside quarterback pick — he’s going to be 20 years old when he’s drafted. But he’ll need time to adjust. Wilson is the hot name right now. Since we’re not making hypothetical trades in this exercise, this is the most logical spot for the third quarterback to land. Do you want to go with Wilson?

McShay: Yeah, let’s get the Lions their quarterback of the future to build around under a new coach and GM. Wilson is special.

10. Denver Broncos (4-8)

The consensus pick: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, ILB, Notre Dame

McShay: This is another spot to watch for a quarterback, right, Mel? I like Drew Lock, but have we seen enough?

Kiper: The Broncos need to seriously consider moving on from Lock — if they’re in position to get a quarterback they like. Is it fair to say that the Broncos have the fourth-best quarterback in the AFC West? That’s not good enough.

McShay: Yeah, I wish Denver had protected Lock a little better over the past two years because I don’t know that he’s been put in the best spot to succeed to this point. But I agree with you. If Wilson is available, I think he’s the pick. If he’s gone, like he is in this scenario, the Broncos need to think about whether they want to gamble on Lance with a top-10 pick. Cornerback is also a weakness, and if Surtain were to fall, he’d be a great get for Denver to close the top 10.

Kiper: If they don’t go quarterback, I’d lean secondary or linebacker. With Surtain gone at No. 6, that leaves Farley and Wade as my top-ranked corners. This is probably a little too high for both. What about Owusu-Koramoah? He’s perfect for today’s NFL as a rangy, sideline-to-sideline inside linebacker, and Denver could upgrade for its 3-4 defense.

McShay: I like it. He’d be a playmaker in the middle of that defense, impacting multiple facets of the game. Let’s go with him.

Kiper: That was fun, Todd. Let’s do it again soon. Looking forward to full first-round mock drafts in January.

RAY PERKINS

Ray Perkins, a critical link in the chain that led to Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick, has passed away at age 79.  He had an impactful career as a player and coach.  Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post:

Former Giants head coach Ray Perkins, who was at the helm for the drafting of Phil Simms and Lawrence Taylor, died Wednesday morning at his home in Alabama at the age of 79.

Perkins’ coaching career is tied to two titans of the profession: He preceded Bill Parcells with the Giants and succeeded Bear Bryant at the University of Alabama in 1983.

Hiring Perkins in 1979 was the first major move by general manager George Young, who guided the Giants out of the dark days of losing and feuding and to their first two Super Bowl titles.

Young chose Perkins — whom he knew as a player with the Colts — over then-Dallas Cowboys assistant Dan Reeves, who was a popular choice at the time and hit it big as head coach of the Denver Broncos before eventually getting his shot to lead the Giants from 1993 to 1996.

“Ray Perkins,” Giants owner Wellington Mara said at the time, “is very impressive in an unimpressive way.”

Perkins was 23-34 in the regular season and 1-1 in the playoffs in four seasons with the Giants before leaving for Alabama and handing off a team with top-flight assistants and ascending young talent to his defensive coordinator, Parcells. Perkins hired Bill Belichick and Romeo Crennel — both of whom are NFL head coaches in 2020 — as special teams coaches on his Giants staffs.

Signed through 1985 on an extension received after 1981 was the franchise’s first winning season since 1972, Perkins announced his plan to go to Alabama with three games remaining in the 1982 season and Giants ownership let him out of his contract.

Perkins had dealt with heart issues the past couple years, according to AL.com. He most recently coached at Jones County Junior College in his native Mississippi in 2012-13.

Perkins was 32-15 with three bowl wins at Alabama before leaving his alma mater to return to the NFL as head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 1987 to 1990. He reconnected with Parcells as New England Patriots offensive coordinator from 1993 to 1996.

The SEC honored Perkins as one of its conference legends last season.

Mike Vaccaro in the New York Post:

Ray Perkins was especially thirsty this day, a suffocating afternoon in northeastern Arkansas. He gulped down an iced tea, ordered another, told the waitress at the Jonesboro Holiday Inn: “Keep ’em coming. Hot as blazes out there today.”

This was early August of 1992. Perkins – who’d brought the Giants back to the playoffs after an 18-year drought, who’d succeeded Bear Bryant as head coach at Alabama – was a month away from beginning a new chapter of his football journey, as the $65,000-per-year coach at Arkansas State, in its first year as a Division I-A school.

“When George Young hired me with the Giants, it wasn’t a popular choice,” Perkins said. “Everyone in New York wanted Dan Reeves, who was the hot assistant coach for Tom Landry. But Young didn’t know Reeves. He knew me, from our days together with the Colts. He was the offensive line coach.

“In our interview, he said, you probably don’t remember this, but one day you asked me, ‘How are we picking up the blitz this week?’ You were a receiver. Receivers don’t ask those kinds of questions. I saw right then that you were a big-picture guy.’”

Perkins laughed, buttered an English muffin.

“New York City, Tuscaloosa, Jonesboro, Tampa, it’s all the same,” he said. “If you have a good understanding of the big picture, football isn’t as hard as they make it out to be.”

Perkins died Wednesday, at 79, and so it is a good thing to remember how important that meeting with George Young, February of 1979, was to the fortunes of the Giants, who they became, who they are still. It was Perkins, serious as a tax audit, who did the heavy lifting of making the Giants credible again after they’d wandered so long in the NFL wilderness.

It was Perkins who led the Giants to a 9-7 record in his third season, 1981, qualifying on the season’s last day for a postseason that had eluded them in every year since 1963. It was Perkins who coached them to an upset of the defending NFC champs, Philadelphia, at the Vet, the first postseason win for the Giants since the 1956 title game.

It was Perkins who, in one of his first moves, hired an obscure coach from the Air Force Academy to coach linebackers named Duane “Bill” Parcells, who saw Parcells quit on him almost immediately because of family considerations that forced Parcells out of football for a year, and who hired him again two years later to be his defensive coordinator.

That’s how Parcells got the Giants’ head coaching gig in December 1982 when Perkins decided to take on the thankless job of succeeding Bryant in Tuscaloosa and, well …

“If I’m only remembered as the guy who made Bill Parcells possible,” Perkins said that August day in 1992, less than two years after Parcells had guided the Giants to a second Super Bowl, “then I guess that’s a good reason to be remembered.”

But Perkins’ football life was really so much more than that. He caught passes at Alabama from both Joe Namath and Ken Stabler. He played five years in the NFL, catching passes from Johnny Unitas, including a 68-yard TD toss in the 1970 AFC Championship Game, which set up the Colts’ only Super Bowl win in Baltimore.

As a coach he never duplicated his early highs in New York, where in four years he went from stone-faced taskmaster to celebrated miracle worker to carpetbagging turncoat. He only lasted four years at Alabama, lured back to the pros by Tampa Bay, where he went 19-41 in four miserable seasons.

He stayed one year at Arkansas State, going 2-9, then took a few assistant’s jobs back in the NFL. In 2012, at age 70, he became the head coach at Jones County Junior College in Ellisville, Miss. He went 15-5 in two years and finally retired to Hattiesburg, only a couple of miles from where he’d first gained notoriety by lettering in football, basketball, baseball and track at Petal High School.

“My nickname was ‘Grease’ back then, because I worked as a mechanic before and after school,” Perkins said in the Holiday Inn coffee shop in ’92. “I always figured I could do that again if football didn’t work out. But I have to tell you: I think it all worked out OK for ol’ Grease.”

The DB had the challenge of serving as Perkins’ primary PR guy for his four seasons with the Buccaneers.  He liked to project a steely-eyed image to the media, but we spent quite a bit of time together and he loved his family, his coaches and his players (at least the hard-working ones).

We remember that time that Buccaneers owner Hugh Culverhouse stripped family coverage from the team’s medical plan.  Perkins picked up the tab himself for his coaches.

After three losing seasons with Vinny Testaverde as QB things were going to be different in 1990.  After a win over Green Bay in Week 6, the Buccaneers were 4-2 and with the Cowboys coming into town, 2-4 in ’90 after 1-15 in ’89, advancing to 5-2 seemed likely.

We often went to dinner with Perkins on Monday night before his television show at a biker bar near the studio.  Over our weekly nachos, we talked about how his plan for the franchise had taken root.

That Sunday, Tampa Bay held a 13-10 lead late, but Troy Aikman found Michael Irvin for a 28-yard TD in the final minutes – and things turned south for Perkins and the Buccaneers.  There were five more losses, and even when Tampa Bay beat Atlanta in Week 13, owner Culverhouse used a rare December bye to fire him with the thought that Bill Walsh would coach the team in the future.

Perkins was a part of 14 consecutive losing seasons for the Buccaneers, spanning five coaches that only ended in 1997 when Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy was in his second season.