FREE AGENT FITS
Now that he’s identified the top 50 likely free agents, Matt Bowen of ESPN.com tells us who should sign them:
1. Lamar Jackson, QB
Best team fit: Baltimore Ravens
With new offensive coordinator Todd Monken in Baltimore, the Ravens can build a system around Jackson’s dynamic traits at the position — one that features QB run-game elements, play-action and a detailed dropback route tree to scheme against opposing coverages. The franchise tag should be a starting point to securing Jackson on a multiyear contract after Jackson totaled 2,242 passing yards and 742 rushing yards before missing the final six games of the 2022 season with a knee injury.
2. Orlando Brown Jr., OT
Best team fit: Kansas City Chiefs
Brown is a massive performer in the run game and uses his 6-foot-8, 340-pound frame to compensate for average foot and body quickness in pass pro. I think he stays in Kansas City as a key part of an upper-tier Chiefs offensive front. In 2022, Brown registered a pass block win rate of 91.8% when blocking for Patrick Mahomes at the left tackle position. Look for the Chiefs to perhaps use the franchise tag on Brown as they work toward a multiyear contract.
3. Javon Hargrave, DT
Best team fit: Seattle Seahawks (was Eagles)
Coach Pete Carroll and the Seahawks can upgrade the defensive front with Hargrave, adding a disruptive tackle with pass-rush juice. This past season, Hargrave notched 11 sacks and 37 tackles, and his pass rush win rate of 17.2% when lined up on the interior ranked third overall in the NFL. And Seattle’s 33.5% pass rush win rate was No. 28 last season. Hargrave is slippery off the ball with the upfield burst to attack the pocket, and he can hold a gap in the run game, too.
4. Daron Payne, DT
Best team fit: Washington Commanders
Multiple teams would be in the mix for Payne if he makes it to free agency given his great tape and pass rush production in 2022, but I see the Commanders using the franchise tag or signing the defensive tackle to a long-term deal. A big, powerful mover at 6-foot-3, 320 pounds, Payne has the foot quickness and lower-body agility to create disruption. I think he stays in Washington to secure one of the league’s best defensive fronts.
5. Geno Smith, QB
Best team fit: Seattle Seahawks
Smith posted career numbers in Seattle this past season, throwing for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdown passes, with a league-leading 69.8 completion percentage. So let’s run it back. It’s also an easy fit for Smith in Shane Waldron’s offense, where the Seahawks can mix play-action, boot concepts and the dropback game, utilizing Smith’s top targets in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The veteran quarterback sees it fast from the pocket and is very efficient with the football, and I anticipate a three-year deal for Smith here.
6. Derek Carr, QB
Best team fit: New Orleans Saints (was Raiders)
The Saints will need to get very creative here to make the money and salary cap work. But Carr — who was released by the Raiders — would obviously upgrade a New Orleans team that has key players in place on both sides of the ball and could challenge for an NFC South title. Remember, Saints coach Dennis Allen drafted Carr in 2014. Carr is a midtier starter with the arm talent to make every throw necessary in a pro offense, along with good mobility on second-reaction plays. But he must improve his footwork based on what we saw on the ’22 tape in order to be a more accurate thrower. His 60.8 completion percentage was the second lowest of his career.
7. Mike McGlinchey, OT
Best team fit: Chicago Bears (was 49ers)
McGlinchey didn’t produce his best tape in pass protection last season, but he has the blocking traits at a premier position to upgrade a Bears offensive front that must do a better job of protecting quarterback Justin Fields. He wins with angles and the ability to get off the ball, and while McGlinchey’s pass block win rate slipped to 89.6% this season, his run block win rate of 81.2% ranked fifth overall in the NFL. It could be a big, multiyear deal for McGlinchey, and Bears general manager Ryan Poles would be adding a starting right tackle to address the subpar play of the Chicago offensive line (58 sacks allowed).
8. Saquon Barkley, RB
Best team fit: New York Giants
The franchise tag could be in play for Barkley if he returns to the Giants in his dual-threat role for coach Brian Daboll. In 2022, Barkley produced 1,650 total yards, with 32 rushes of 10 yards or more. And the tape tells us that Barkley’s explosive traits are back. He’s a difference-maker with big-play juice, and he’s a key part of what Daboll wants to do offensively. He has regained his explosiveness and suddenness after injuries limited him to 15 total games over the previous two seasons.
9. Jamel Dean, CB
Best team fit: Atlanta Falcons (was Buccaneers)
A 26-year-old defender who plays a premium position, Dean will have multiple options on the market. The Titans are a potential landing spot, too, but I like the idea of pairing him with A.J. Terrell in Atlanta to give the Falcons two corners with press-man ability and backfield vision in zone looks. Dean is long at 6-foot-1, can disrupt throwing windows and creates on-the-ball production. He had double-digit pass breakups in each of his first three pro seasons, with two interceptions last year.
10. Daniel Jones, QB
Best team fit: New York Giants
It makes sense for Jones to stick with the Giants, given his fit in Daboll’s offense. Last season, Jones’ 60.8 QBR ranked seventh in the NFL, and we saw his throwing volume in both play-action and dropback schemes increase over the second half of the season. He can play tall in the pocket and create conflict for defenses with dual-threat ability as a runner (708 yards rushing). This could end up being the franchise tag or a multiyear deal.
11. Jessie Bates III, S
Best team fit: Cleveland Browns (was Bengals)
The Browns will need to do some work with the cap, but Bates upgrades a Cleveland defense that needs better play and more ball production at the safety position. Bates has the post and split-field range to cover some grass, along with the scheme versatility to play from depth or spin down in coverage. He logged four interceptions and eight pass breakups last year in Cincinnati, and he has posted 14 career interceptions over five pro seasons. Bates, who played on the franchise tag last season, is in line for a long-term deal.
12. Dalton Schultz, TE
Best team fit: Los Angeles Chargers (was Cowboys)
Some roster cuts are anticipated in L.A., which will help the team out with the cap — and maybe open the door for Schultz to play for Kellen Moore, his former offensive coordinator in Dallas. In Moore’s system, Schultz could be used as a seam stretcher for quarterback Justin Herbert, with catch-and-run opportunities on play-action and boot. His regular-season production in 2022 was slowed by a knee injury, but the tight end logged 12 receptions for 122 yards and three touchdowns in the Cowboys’ two playoff games.
13. James Bradberry, CB
Best team fit: Arizona Cardinals (was Eagles)
A key part of the Eagles defense that made a run to Super Bowl LVII, Bradberry would make sense in Arizona, where he could play for new coach Jonathan Gannon (his coordinator in Philadelphia). We know the scheme fit works here, with Bradberry using his press-man skills and high-level zone eyes to make plays on the ball. Last season, Bradberry posted 17 pass breakups and three interceptions. At 30 years old, Bradberry should get one more shot at a multiyear contract and could upgrade a Cardinals defense lacking perimeter coverage talent. Arizona’s 68.5% completion percentage against on throws outside the numbers ranked 28th last season.
14. C.J. Gardner-Johnson, S
Best team fit: Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles would be retaining one of their most versatile defenders, as Gardner-Johnson can play the safety position or cover in the slot. He tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions in just 12 regular-season games, and his urgent play style pops on the tape. With the coverage traits and ball skills to create impact plays, Gardner-Johnson is in position to sign a multiyear deal.
15. Jawaan Taylor, OT
Best team fit: New England Patriots (was Jaguars)
The Jags could use the franchise tag to keep Taylor in Jacksonville, but he can also fill a major need for Bill O’Brien’s offense in New England, slotting in at right tackle, where Isaiah Wynn and Marcus Cannon are both headed to free agency. Taylor has the movement traits at 6-foot-5, 312 pounds to mirror speed and can handle power rushers. And at just 25 years old, Taylor has room for growth, too. The Patriots would have to spend some money to sign Taylor to a multiyear contract. Last season, New England allowed 41 sacks (15th), and quarterback Mac Jones struggled when pressured, turning in a league-low 4.1 QBR in those situations.
16. Dre’Mont Jones, DT
Best team fit: Chicago Bears (was Broncos)
With edge/interior flexibility, Jones is a high-end mover who shows a quick first step off the ball and the short-area juice to penetrate versus the run game or create pass rush production. In ’22, he registered 6.5 sacks and 28 pressures, and his pass rush win rate when lined up inside (15.9%) ranked sixth among all defenders. He is an ascending player who would immediately upgrade a talent-deficient Bears pass rush, and I expect Jones to cash in with a long-term deal. The Bears allowed almost 5 yards per rush last season, and their sack total of 20 was last in the NFL.
17. Josh Jacobs, RB
Best team fit: Las Vegas Raiders
I have Jacobs returning to Vegas on the franchise tag after posting career highs in rushing attempts (340), rushing yards (1,653) and receiving yards (400) in Josh McDaniels’ offense. He shows lateral agility and big-play chops, posting 41 rushes of 10 yards or more last season, second most in the NFL. We know the scheme fit works, and the Raiders place a lot of importance on their run game. That could be even more true in 2023, when Las Vegas will have a new starter at the quarterback position.
18. Tremaine Edmunds, ILB
Best team fit: Detroit Lions (was Bills)
Detroit needs to add more difference-makers on defense, and I see Edmunds as a prime fit at the second level of the Lions’ system. He’s a long 6-foot-5 linebacker with coverage range and downhill acceleration against the run game. Edmunds registered seven pass breakups, 102 tackles, one interception and a sack in 2022. He’s a young player at age 25, but Edmunds has already started 74 games over five pro seasons. He would be a strong addition to a Detroit team that was among the worst on defense last season but will have the opportunity to compete for the NFC North title this fall.
19. Tony Pollard, RB
Best team fit: Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys could release Ezekiel Elliott, and Pollard — who fractured his left fibula in the playoff loss to San Francisco — would then be in line to return to Dallas on the franchise tag as the lead back in Mike McCarthy’s system. While splitting touches with Elliott in 2022, Pollard rushed for 1,007 yards and averaged 9.5 yards per catch on 39 receptions. He has explosive dual-threat upside, with the formation flexibility in the pass game to play a featured role in the Cowboys’ offense next season.
20. Marcus Davenport, DE
Best team fit: Houston Texans (was Saints)
New Houston coach DeMeco Ryans needs edge defenders for his system, and Davenport fits here given his physical traits in both base and sub-packages. Davenport could be schemed to isolate in one-on-one pass-rush matchups or deployed on stunts/slants from the Texans’ loaded fronts. And at 6-foot-6 and 262 pounds, he can also set an edge against the run. While the production declined for Davenport in ’22 (0.5 sacks, 20 pressures), he did record nine sacks and three forced fumbles in 2021.
21. Jakobi Meyers, WR
Best team fit: Houston Texans (was Patriots)
The Texans will be in position to draft a rookie quarterback with the No. 2 pick this spring, and Meyers is a fit here as a nuanced route runner with a 6-foot-2 frame and strong hands to work the middle of the field. Last season in New England, Meyers caught 47 of his 67 targets on throws inside the numbers. He’s an intermediate option with outside flex, and he can stretch defenses on deep overs or crossers. And there’s also a history here: Houston general manager Nick Caserio spent 20 seasons with the Patriots before getting hired by the Texans.
22. Lavonte David, ILB
Best team fit: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has major cap issues at this point, but bringing David back on a short-term deal benefits the defensive system of coach Todd Bowles. At age 33, David still plays with urgency and savvy style on tape. He’s well schooled as a zone defender, with the speed and range track the ball in the run game or blitz from the second level. Last season, Davis notched 124 tackles, five pass breakups and three sacks.
23. Jordan Poyer, S
Best team fit: New England Patriots (was Bills)
Here’s a fun one. Poyer’s multidimensional traits fit with Bill Belichick’s scheme as a movable defensive player with deep-field range. Veteran safety Devin McCourty is set to hit free agency, so there is a need here. A highly instinctual defensive back, Poyer could match in coverage, check tight ends or track the ball from post/deep-half alignments in New England. And he can play multiple roles in Belichick’s sub-packages. Last season, Poyer logged four interceptions and eight pass breakups for the Bills.
24. Zach Allen, DE
Best team fit: Arizona Cardinals
Looking at Gannon’s defensive scheme and how he deploys his pass-rushers, keeping Allen in Arizona should be a priority for the Cardinals. Allen registered 6.5 sacks and 26 pressures for Arizona last season, and the 26-year-old has some versatility, with the ability to rush from multiple alignments. His run stop win rate of 37.9% ranked in the top 40 among all NFL defenders in 2022 as well.
25. Jimmy Garoppolo, QB
Best team fit: New York Jets (was 49ers)
Yes, the Jets could trade for Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and Carr is visiting with them, too. But if none of that comes together for New York, Garoppolo would immediately make the Jets better from an offensive perspective under new coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. They will likely feature the timing and rhythm throws, along with play-action elements. Garoppolo completed 67.2% of his passes — with 16 touchdown passes — in his 11 games played last season before suffering a foot injury. I’ll also mention the Bucs as a fit for Garoppolo, too, if they can figure out the money.
26. Odell Beckham Jr., WR
Best team fit: Dallas Cowboys (was Rams in 2021)
Both the Chiefs and the Bills are also potential landing spots for Beckham, but we know there is interest from Dallas, which has a real need to add a proven No. 2 target opposite of CeeDee Lamb. Beckham missed the entire 2022 season after suffering a knee injury during the Rams’ Super Bowl LVI win. If the knee checks out, Beckham can still create immediate separation as a detailed and efficient route runner. In 12 games with the Rams in 2021 (including the playoffs), Beckham caught 48 passes for 593 yards and seven touchdown receptions. He would upgrade the Dallas passing game for Dak Prescott.
27. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
Best team fit: Kansas City Chiefs
I like Smith-Schuster back to the Chiefs on a short-term deal, given how he was deployed in Andy Reid’s passing game last season. He can work the dirty areas of the field as a slot target for Mahomes, and he will flex outside to run isolation routes. Smith-Schuster logged 73 receptions for 933 yards during the regular season, and he showed up on the Super Bowl stage, too, catching seven of nine targets for 53 yards.
28. Cameron Sutton, CB
Best team fit: San Francisco 49ers (was Steelers)
Sutton will have multiple suitors given his flexibility to play in the slot; Tennessee, Atlanta and Las Vegas all work here. But with the number of 49ers defensive backs heading to free agency and Sutton’s ability to cover in man and find the ball in zone, the fit works in San Francisco with new defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Sutton posted three interceptions and 15 pass breakups for the Steelers in 2022, which were both career highs.
29. Evan Engram, TE
Best team fit: Jacksonville Jaguars
Engram returns to Jacksonville, where he played a volume role in 2022, catching 77 passes for 766 yards and four scores in Doug Pederson’s offense. It’s his deployment as a flexed-out player in the pass game that — schemed throws and catch-and-run targets from the slot or lined up out wide — that make Engram as easy fit in Jacksonville to produce again with quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The tight end signed a one-year deal last offseason, so we could see the Jags offer a multiyear contract this spring.
30. Dalvin Tomlinson, DT
Best team fit: Atlanta Falcons (was Vikings)
The Falcons could boost their defensive line with Tomlinson, a 325-pound nose guard who can play as a 1-technique in a 40 front. With 13 sacks over six pro seasons, Tomlinson isn’t going to bring high-end pass-rush production to Atlanta. But thanks to lateral quickness and that size, Tomlinson can clog up running lanes, demand double-teams and provide an interior push next to Grady Jarrett to take away opposing quarterback’s throwing platforms.
31. David Long Jr., ILB
Best team fit: Las Vegas Raiders (was Titans)
Long would fill a critical need for the Raiders as a second-level linebacker with the natural instincts to track the ball and finish. Las Vegas was 27th in yards allowed per play last season (5.8). And Long, at 5-foot-11 and 227 pounds, was one of the best off-ball run defenders I watched on tape in 2022. In 12 games for the Titans last season, Long registered 86 tackles, two interceptions and six pass breakups.
32. Yannick Ngakoue, DE
Best team fit: Cincinnati Bengals (was Colts)
Ngakoue led the Colts with 9.5 sacks last season, and he has totaled 65 over eight NFL seasons. There will be a market for Ngakoue, but finding the right team fit and situation is tough, given that he will be targeted as a sub-package player. The Bengals feature a defense that produced only 30 sacks in 2022 (29th in the NFL), and a short-term deal makes sense, allowing them to slot Ngakoue as their nickel pass-rusher. He shows good burst and an ability to bend around offensive tackles.
33. Mike Gesicki, TE
Best team fit: Carolina Panthers (was Dolphins)
In Frank Reich’s offense, Gesicki would serve as a vertical seam option who can stress opposing defenses as a three-level target. Gesicki caught just 32 passes in Miami last season for coach Mike McDaniel, but the 2021 tape and numbers (73 receptions) tell us that the 6-foot-6 tight end can produce when deployed as a matchup player and red zone target.
34. Rock Ya-Sin, CB
Best team fit: Pittsburgh Steelers (was Raiders)
How strong the market for Ya-Sin ends up being will play a role in the Steelers’ ability to make a move, but I like the fit — especially if Pittsburgh can’t re-sign Sutton. Ya-Sin is well-versed in both man and zone schemes and has a physical approach to the game, so he would upgrade the perimeter of the Steelers’ secondary. He had seven pass breakups this season and allowed just one touchdown receptions as the nearest defender, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
35. Isaac Seumalo, G
Best team fit: Indianapolis Colts (was Eagles)
Seumalo would fill a need opposite of Quinten Nelson at right guard for the Colts. He’s a technically sound blocker with the foot quickness to re-direct defenders and the body control to wrestle back versus power rushers. Seumalo had a pass block win rate of 93.6% in Philadelphia last season, which ranked 15th among offensive guards. The Colts allowed 60 sacks (second-most) and produced the league’s worst pass block win rate at 48.5% in 2022.
36. DJ Chark, WR
Best team fit: Baltimore Ravens (was Lions)
The Ravens would be adding a vertical stretch target on the perimeter for Jackson. Chark averaged 16.7 yards per reception in 11 games for Detroit last season, separating on deep balls and finding open voids on schemed in-breakers. In five pro seasons, he has caught 18 touchdowns, and at 6-foot-4, he could give the Ravens someone who can win on the boundary. Baltimore was last in the NFL last season in wide receiver yardage (1,517).
37. T.J. Edwards, ILB
Best team fit: Atlanta Falcons (was Eagles)
Edwards is a stack linebacker who will key and diagnose quickly versus the run, and he has the second-level range to impact zone windows. His 159 tackles tied for sixth in the NFL last season, and he can be schemed as a blitzer in both base and sub-personnel packages. Atlanta ranked 25th in yards allowed per play in 2022 (5.7), and it needs a playmaker in the middle of the defense.
38. Byron Murphy Jr., CB
Best team fit: Minnesota Vikings (was Cardinals)
The Vikings would have to make some moves to create more money on the salary cap, but there is a real need for coverage corners in Minnesota to fit the scheme of new defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Only Detroit and Chicago allowed more yards per pass attempt than the Vikes last season (7.3). Murphy’s production took a hit this season — four pass breakups — but he did record four interceptions and 12 pass breakups in 2021. And he has the man-coverage traits to play inside or outside the numbers.
39. Brandon Graham, DE
Best team fit: Philadelphia Eagles
Graham posted a career-high 11 sacks this past year, his 13th NFL season. He has spent every season with the Eagles. Why not return? Graham is a rotational edge rusher who can still provide quality depth and production at age 35, and I could see him back in Philly on a one-year deal.
40. Ben Powers, G
Best team fit: Buffalo Bills (was Ravens)
The Bills have to be better on the interior of the offensive line, and Powers can fill that role at the left guard position with Rodger Saffold III entering free agency. The 310-pounder plays his best football in close quarters, and he registered a run block win rate of 78.8%, the second best among guards. And while he can get stressed on his edges in pass pro, Powers finished the ’22 season with a pass block win rate of 93.2%, which ranked 10th among all guards.
41. Nate Davis, G
Best team fit: Washington Commanders (was Titans)
With Commanders right guard Trai Turner set up to be a free agent, Washington could upgrade at the position by adding Davis. He’s a good mover at 320 pounds and can reach and climb in zone schemes, delivering a strike on contact. And Davis will drop anchor to handle power rushers in pass protection. While his run-block win rate was below average this season (68.8%), he did rank among the top 25 guards in pass block win rate (93.2).
42. Kaleb McGary, OT
Best team fit: Denver Broncos (was Falcons)
Starting right tackle Billy Turner is heading to free agency, so the Broncos would be smart to land McGary to block for Russell Wilson in Sean Payton’s new offensive system. A 2019 first-round pick, McGary has some quickness off the ball and can use his movement skills to match up to speed on the edge. While longer pass-rushers can create conflict for McGary, I see him as an upgrade for Denver. Wilson took 55 sacks last season, which tied for the most in the NFL.
43. Miles Sanders, RB
Best team fit: Miami Dolphins (was Eagles)
We have to see how the market develops for Sanders, who set career highs in rushing attempts (259), rushing yards (1,269) and touchdowns (11) for the Eagles this past season. But there is an opening right now in Miami, considering both Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert are scheduled to hit free agency. Sanders would fit in Mike McDaniel’s heavily schemed run game and could see more usage as a receiver.
44. Drue Tranquill, ILB
Best team fit: New York Giants (was Chargers)
The Giants need to find an answer at linebacker. Tranquill’s 144 tackles for the Chargers in 2022 were a career high, and he can be deployed as a blitzer from multiple second-level alignments. He logged 5.5 sacks and four pass breakups last season, too. Tranquill would play inside linebacker for Wink Martindale’s defense, but he has the movement ability of a weakside linebacker in both base and sub-packages.
45. Dalton Risner, G
Best team fit: Los Angeles Rams (was Broncos)
The Rams are cash-strapped, but they would be wise to make some room for Risner to bolster the interior of the offensive line. He’s a close-quarters mauler at left guard who displays a strong and rugged play-style. Risner ranked 10th in the league in run block win rate this past season among guards (74.4%) and he can set an anchor in pass pro. Los Angeles must fix their offensive line issues after giving up 59 sacks (third most).
46. Vonn Bell, S
Best team fit: Cincinnati Bengals
If Bates leaves via free agency, the Bengals should then bring back Bell, a tough and physical safety who plays a key role in Lou Anarumo’s defense. Bell can match to tight ends, play off the numbers in the deep-half or spin down to muddy the middle of the field. The veteran safety intercepted a career-high four passes in 2022 and added eight pass breakups.
47. Arden Key, DE
Best team fit: Houston Texans (was Jaguars)
Key played for Ryans, the Texans’ new coach, in San Francisco in 2021, and he has produced 11 sacks over his past two seasons (the most recent of which in Jacksonville). He has the positional flexibility to be deployed as an interior/edge rusher in Houston, and at 6-foot-5, Key has the short-area speed to create pocket disruption.
48. Jadeveon Clowney, DE
Best team fit: Baltimore Ravens (was Browns)
I’m putting Clowney with Baltimore on a one-year deal; I like the fit as a rotational sub-package defender in Mike Macdonald’s defense. While his production declined in 2022 (two sacks), Clowney still has the physical tools of a straight-line power rusher who can win defined one-on-ones and set a hard edge against the run out of the Ravens’ multiple fronts.
49. Sam Darnold, QB
Best team fit: Atlanta Falcons (was Panthers)
We can look at Darnold as competition for an incumbent starter or as a high-level No. 2 quarterback. And with the expectation the Falcons cut Marcus Mariota, Darnold would work in Atlanta as competition for second-year QB Desmond Ridder in Arthur Smith’s system. In six starts last season for the Panthers, Darnold completed 58.6% of his passes for 1,143 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s a good mover with arm talent and second-reaction ability, but we still see some limitations late in the down, where his decision-making declines. A return to Carolina is possible, too.
50. Germaine Pratt, ILB
Best team fit: Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals should retain Pratt, a three-down linebacker who can play downhill against the run and create coverage disruption. In 2022, Pratt logged 14 pass breakups, two interceptions and 99 tackles. The production is there — and so is the tape. I see him back playing the Mike ‘backer position for Anarumo in ’23.
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