The Daily Briefing Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Here are the QBs drafted in 2022 – with the two who will start a playoff game this week in bold.

1          1-20     Kenny Pickett          PIT

2          3-74     Desmond Ridder     ATL

3          3-86     Malik Willis              TEN

4          3-94     Matt Corral              CAR

5          4-137   Bailey Zappe           NE

6          5-144   Sam Howell             WAS

7          7-241   Chris Oladokun       PIT

8          7-247   Skylar Thompson  MIA

9          7-262   Brock Purdy           SF

Thompson starts more by injury circumstance.  Purdy earned it.

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

With only a tiny bit of wiggle room, GM Ryan Poles declares QB JUSTIN FIELDS to be the Bears 2023 starter and that the first overall pick will be used in other fashion.  Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com:

Bears general manager Ryan Poles backed Justin Fields as Chicago’s starting quarterback for 2023 and said he would have to be “absolutely blown away” to take a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft.

“Yeah. We had good conversations,” Poles said during his season-ending news conference on Tuesday. “I’m excited for the direction he’s going. As I mentioned before, he knows where he has to improve. I think he mentioned that the other day. We’re excited about his development and where he goes next. He showed ability to be impactful with his legs. There’s flashes with his arm. Now if we can put that together, I think we have something really good.”

The Bears entered Week 18 second in the draft order but then swapped spots with Houston for the No. 1 overall pick after the Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts 32-31. Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud are considered the top quarterbacks in a draft class that could feature as many as four QBs taken in the first round.

Poles appeared to temper debate on whether the Bears would take a quarterback with the No. 1 pick after committing to Fields as Chicago’s starter for next season.

“We’re going to do the same as we’ve always done,” Poles said. “We’re going to evaluate the draft class, and I would say this: I would have to be absolutely blown away to make that type of decision.”

Despite the Bears ending the 2022 season on a franchise-worst 10-game losing streak and 3-14 record, Fields showed signs of improvement in his second season that has the Bears general manager encouraged about his development.

“I thought Justin did a good job,” Poles said. “I thought we changed a lot, we adapted, we tried to put him in a position to be successful, he showed the ability to be a playmaker. Be impactful. He can change games quickly. Does he have room to grow? He does. He has to get better as a passer, and I’m excited to see him take those steps as we move forward.”

The Bears owned the league’s top rushing offense and worst passing offense, with Fields averaging 149.5 passing yards per game. He did not play in Chicago’s season finale against Minnesota due to a hip injury, finishing his season 64 yards shy of the single-season quarterback rushing record.

In two seasons with the Bears, Fields has led Chicago to five wins while completing 60.4% of his passes for 2,242 yards, 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, along with 160 carries for 1,143 yards and eight rushing TDs.

Poles pointed to the discrepancy between Chicago’s rushing and passing game as a lack of chemistry with the skill players around Fields. Aside from wide receiver Darnell Mooney and tight end Cole Kmet, who played with Fields during his rookie season in 2021, Chicago overhauled its entire wide receiver and tight end group in 2022.

“I noticed through the season that guys he had the most time within the offseason, that transferred into the season,” Poles said. “I think that’s why Cole had a helluva year. So, building that chemistry is big. And then just letting the game slow down to him. Everything’s new. This offense was new. You’re seeing everything for the first time. Time on task I think is going to help.”

Poles said he did not regret putting more offensive pieces around Fields as the quarterback improved during the season, citing that the Bears made uses of their resources to “the best of our ability” based on the players available.

“I wish there was a perfect scenario where you could just clean up everything and get good,” the general manager said. “So I thought we made, solid, sound decisions to do that. Yeah, I wish it was perfect across the board so it was clean as much as possible, but it just doesn’t always happen that way.”

The Bears did attempt to bolster the receiving corps at the trade deadline when they sent their own second-round pick (No. 32) to Pittsburgh in exchange for Chase Claypool. Despite his lack of production (14 catches for 140 yards in 7 games), Poles is confident that the wide receiver will contribute in 2023.

“That’s the difference between trades in baseball and basketball, it’s like plug and play,” Poles said. “There’s an entire offseason and half of a season of installs and all the things you need to do collectively to play and execute offensive play. On top of that, it was a little bit choppy with Justin getting dinged up, he got dinged up. So it was a little bit choppy of a start. I told Chase, and we had a really good conversation, I’m not blinking at that one at all. I think he’s going to help us moving forward and I’m excited about it.”

As Chicago turns the page to the offseason, Poles pointed out the “flexibility” the team has to improve the roster given the ample resources the Bears have, from over $108 million in salary cap space for free agency to the No. 1 draft pick.

While Poles dispelled the notion that Chicago will “go crazy” with their spending in free agency, the leverage the Bears have sitting in the No. 1 draft slot is not lost on the GM.

“We can evaluate the talent there, we can see what player presents themselves in that position to help us, and then we can look at the scenarios,” Poles said. “If the phones go off, and there are certain situations where that can help us, then we’ll go down that avenue too. I think we have really good flexibility to help this team, regardless of if it’s making the pick there or moving back a little bit or moving back a lot. We’ll be open to everything.”

DETROIT

The DB keeps seeing “experts” having the Lions dip in the QB pool with their early first round pick – which indicates they haven’t been paying attention to how well QB JARED GOFF has played and how well he fits into the organization.  Eric Woodyard of ESPN.com sets the record straight (with an interesting quote from Goff in bold):

Before exiting Lambeau Field on Sunday night, quarterback Jared Goff took a victory lap around the stadium to slap hands with Detroit Lions fans who were hanging around to celebrate.

After leading Detroit (9-8) to its first winning season since 2017, which included a 20-16 win over the Packers on the road in the finale, Lions general manager Brad Holmes said he feels Goff has proved to be the franchise’s quarterback moving forward.

“I think it’s a lot easier to get worse at quarterback than to get better in this league,” Holmes said during his end-of-season news conference Tuesday. “So, I think what Jared has done this year, he captained the ship of a top-3 offense, and he was top-10 statistically in most of the passing categories.

“And again, you know how we approach the draft,” he added. “We’re never going to turn down a good football player, so if it’s a football player we love, we’re going to make sure every stone is turned. But I do think that Jared has proven to everybody that he is the starting quarterback for us.”

After returning to Detroit on Monday, Goff and teammates cleaned out their lockers and he reiterated, “I’ve loved my time here.” He said he hasn’t been approached by the front office about his future in Detroit, but added, “We’ll see.”

“It feels great because I’ve been on the flip side of that to be in a place where you are appreciated,” Goff said. “It feels good. And again, these people here, it’s just a special place and I’m proud to be a part of it.”

Goff is signed through 2024, but the Lions will incur $10 million of dead money on their cap if they release him after this season, meaning they could do so without much financial consequence if they wanted to go in another direction.

But Holmes said the team never viewed Goff as a bridge quarterback. While on the Los Angeles Rams staff, Holmes was integral in drafting Goff as the first overall pick in 2016 and stood by him even through the low moments.

“I don’t really know what the decision is,” Holmes said. “I was always confident in him because I’ve been with him from the get-go from since he was drafted, back when I was with L.A. I just kind of know how resilient and how mentally tough he is. I think a lot of it was me knowing all the success he had in L.A. I think that was kind of forgotten about a little bit when he got here, and I think he was put in a very tough situation.”

Although they fell short on the final day after a late postseason push, the standard in Detroit is now to reach the playoffs, according to Holmes. That hasn’t happened since 2016.

Detroit holds the sixth pick (from the Rams) and the 18th pick in the upcoming draft, where quarterback options are expected to be available.

With Goff as the starter, the Lions climbed out of a 1-6 hole to win eight of their last 10 games.

Goff also went nine straight games without an interception and posted the fifth-longest streak in NFL history with 324 consecutive passes without a pick. In just his second year in Detroit, he set franchise marks for the lowest interception rate (1.2 percent) and the highest touchdown-to-interception ratio (4.14), which prompted coach Dan Campbell to tab him as “our quarterback” after the Packers win.

“He’s played great. He’s really a perfect fit for what we do and what we ask,” Campbell said at Green Bay on Sunday night. “I think the true sign of a pro is somebody who can take the coaching. He can look at himself in the mirror, he knows where he needs to improve, he listens to what recommendations you have to get better, and he goes at it now. He doesn’t shy from it; he doesn’t get sensitive. He just wants to be good. That’s our quarterback.”

NFC EAST

WASHINGTON

The Commanders have fired OC Scott Turner.  John Keim of ESPN.com does a good job of collecting the complaints about Turner:

The Washington Commanders fired offensive coordinator Scott Turner on Tuesday after yet another disappointing season offensively.

Turner, who signed a three-year extension last offseason, had been with coach Ron Rivera for seven years, including the past three in Washington. He coached under Rivera for parts of four seasons with the Carolina Panthers as well.

The Commanders finished a third consecutive season with poor offensive rankings. They were 20th in total yards and 26th in points. Their best rankings in Turner’s three seasons were 23rd in points and 21st in yards — both occurring last season.

“Unfortunately, we did not live up to the expectations and standard that I expected to see from our offensive unit,” Rivera said in a statement. “I felt it was best for a fresh start at the coordinator position going into next year. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Scott and thanked him for his three years of service to our organization.”

Near the end, players and others in the organization grumbled about the inconsistency of Washington’s offensive philosophy. There appeared to be a divide between Rivera’s vision for what he wanted offensively — led by a power run game — and Turner’s vertical passing attack. During their season-finale news conference, Rivera and general manager Martin Mayhew both emphasized the desire to be more of a physical running team.

“We need to control that tempo of the game,” Rivera said.

It didn’t help Washington’s offense that it lost rookie running back Brian Robinson Jr. for the first four games of the season after he was shot twice in his right leg in late August. The Commanders had wanted to feature him in a power-based run game. Once he was lost, they focused more on trying to get the ball to their receivers — Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel — with strong-armed Carson Wentz. After scoring 55 points in their first two games, they scored a combined 47 in the next four.

Some players complained that it took too long in some games to get the ball to key playmakers such as McLaurin. Or, some players said, they’d get away from a formula that was working in games. Others said they liked the offense but wanted to see changes in the way it was taught. It also was considered a difficult offense for quarterbacks to learn, with perhaps not as much flexibility built in for them at the line of scrimmage.

There was concern throughout the year about the direction of the offense. One source said Rivera sat in on more offensive meetings this season to get a better feel for what was transpiring. One person whose team played Washington this season said the Commanders lacked an offensive identity and simply called a collection of plays, leading to some predictability.

Compounding the issue: Washington’s offensive line struggled, and it lacked stability at quarterback. In the past three years, eight quarterbacks started, including three this season — Wentz, Taylor Heinicke and rookie Sam Howell. Washington will seek to reinforce its line this offseason, possibly with at least two new starters.

Rivera also spoke to players during their exit meetings, with some saying they gave him their thoughts on the offense.

“I take into account everything that I get,” Rivera said, “not just from players but from coaches themselves, from what I look at, what I observe on the field, on the tape.”

Washington will interview outside candidates, but the Commanders do like the offensive system they have in place. One in-house candidate would be quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese, who was a coordinator in 2016-17 with Cincinnati before being fired after two games in his second season.

Turner served as the quarterbacks coach for the last two seasons of Rivera’s tenure in Carolina. He served as their interim offensive coordinator for the final four games of the 2019 season before joining Rivera’s staff in Washington for 2020.

“We’ve had some moments where it’s been good. Obviously, some moments where it’s been bad,” Turner said last week. “For the most part I feel like I’ve done a pretty decent job of it. There’s sometimes where you’ve gone too far one way or the other for sure.”

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA

Frank Reich has an interview with the Panthers.  Grant Gordon of NFL.com:

Just two months after he was dismissed as the Indianapolis Colts head coach, Frank Reich is on the schedule to interview to become the Carolina Panthers’ next head coach.

The Panthers are scheduling an interview with Reich for their vacant head coaching job, NFL Network Insider Tom Pelissero reported late Monday night.

Fresh off an impressive showing as the Panthers’ interim head coach, Steve Wilks is set to interview Tuesday. Thereafter, Carolina has a steady stream of interviews with offensive coordinators — the Lions’ Ben Johnson, the Bills’ Ken Dorsey and the Eagles’ Shane Steichen — that now includes Reich, Pelissero added.

Following notable stints as an offensive coordinator with the Chargers from 2014-2015 and Eagles from 2016-2017, with the latter including a Super Bowl championship, Reich was the head coach for the Colts from 2018 through an unceremonious end this past season.

Prior to an ugly 3-5-1 start to this past season that resulted in his firing, Reich led the Colts to three winning seasons and two playoff berths.

Consequently, one lingering issue during Reich’s stay in Indy was finding a franchise quarterback to replace Andrew Luck. Carolina, too, has been unable to find a franchise QB of its own since parting ways with Cam Newton.

Reich has made it known he wants to continue coaching, and the Panthers at the least are offering him a chance to interview with the hopes of making that happen.

TAMPA BAY

One can’t deny what QB TOM BRADY has accomplished in the postseason.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady already owns some of the most significant NFL postseason records, and he’ll add to those records when the Bucs host the Cowboys on Monday night.

Here are a few of the postseason records that Brady owns, and some notes on how far everyone else in the league is from equaling Brady’s records:

Games played: Brady will appear in his 49th career postseason game on Monday. His former kicker Adam Vinatieri is in second place all time, having appeared in 32 career postseason games. Another former Brady kicker, Stephen Gostkowski, is tied with Jerry Rice for third with 29 games.

Games started: Brady has started all of his postseason games, so he’ll extend that record to 48 as well. Kickers aren’t considered starters, so Rice is next with 29 starts.

Games as winning quarterback: Brady has 35 postseason wins. Joe Montana is second with 16. In third place, Terry Bradshaw, John Elway and Peyton Manning are in a three-way tie with 14 postseason wins.

Passes thrown: Brady has thrown 1,855 passes in the postseason. Peyton Manning, with 1,027 postseason passes, is the only other quarterback to throw more than 1,000.

Passes completed: Brady has completed 1,166 passes in the playoffs. Peyton Manning completed 649, and no one else even has 500 career completions in the postseason.

Passing yards: Brady is the all-time leader with 13,049 career postseason passing yards. Peyton Manning is second with 7,339, followed by Brett Favre with 5,885.

300-yard games: Brady has passed for 300 or more yards in 18 different postseason games. Peyton Manning is next with nine 300-yard postseason games, followed by Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers with eight each.

Passing touchdowns: Brady has 86 career postseason touchdown passes. Joe Montana and Aaron Rodgers are tied for second with 45.

Brady will keep adding to his records on Sunday, and maybe for quite a few postseason games after that.

So Brady has more postseason QB wins than any two other QBs combined (35 to 30).

With 176 passing yards, he will have 13,225 – more than any two other QBs combined.

NFC WEST

LOS ANGELES RAMS

One of the best ways to have a great coaching record, at least on paper, is to only coach for teams that are trading in all their draft picks for current players – and to not coach that team when the bill comes due.

That’s what Mike Florio thinks, but Blaine Grisak of Turf Show Times takes umbrage:

At this point, you’re probably all tired of hearing about it. Is Sean McVay leaving or is he staying? That’s an answer that we probably won’t know for the next couple of weeks. Outside of minority candidates or coaches not currently in the NFL, teams can’t start officially interviewing coaches until January 17. It wouldn’t be surprising if a McVay decision doesn’t come until then.

As with most things in 2023, when it comes to a big story such as this one, a lot of different things are said, some of which aren’t even the truth. There’s a difference in speculation and reporting. It’s how we get Mike Florio’s report on Sunday Night Football that many have hung on to.

“There’s a growing sense that he will [step down]. My understanding is it’s not because of burnout or he wants to get into TV, he won a Super Bowl and now he’s looking at a multi-year rebuild that he just doesn’t want to be a part of.”

However, reports like these are irresponsible. There are people who do journalism the right way and others who don’t. Mike Florio has been a journalist driven by agenda. That type of journalism is dangerous and leads to misinformation. There’s little debate that Florio has had an anti-Rams agenda, specifically since the Stafford trade when the Rams went all-in. This isn’t new when it comes to Florio.

Reports like the one above from Florio are why I believe it’s important to lay out everything that we do know about McVay’s future and the reasons why he’s considering stepping down. Clarity is needed.

Florio’s report makes McVay out as selfish and afraid of taking on a challenge. That’s not to mention the Rams don’t even need a full-on rebuild next season. Sure, they need to re-tool in areas and get healthy. However, that’s no different than many other teams that failed to make the postseason.

The report on Sunday Night Football contradicts what many others in the media have said, starting with Peter Schrager on Bill Simmons’ Podcast on The Ringer.

“I just think he is so burnt out and I’m not speaking on behalf of him, but I’ll say as someone who speaks to him often, this season has been really tough on him. And I’m taking mentally, emotionally, all of it, and it’s paired with real life stuff. You know, his wife is Ukranian. Her whole family is over there. He’s dealing with that as well. He didn’t really have a break because he got married over the offseason and then he got the honeymoon and came right back into things. With all of these injuries and all of this, he’s poured himself into it, obviously. I think he’s just spent. I don’t know if this is his last game, but he needs a long vacation and he’s going to think things through. He’s going to take some time after this season and make some decisions about his life – not just his coaching career.”

Schrager added to this on FOX NFL Sunday on Sunday morning, saying,

“I spoke with Sean McVay yesterday and this is an ongoing dialogue with both he and the Rams brass. There will be no surprise, there will be no crazy piece of new tomorrow that McVay is stepping away and retiring. Sean McVay and the Rams are talking right now in an open dialogue about his future. Anyone that tells you that has been decided already…doesn’t know because he has gone back and fourth over the last several days and he truly just wants to take the time to reconsider everything…This season was a rough one both on the field and off and he wants to take the time to asses what he wants to do for the future. Of course, the Rams want answer, but they also want the best version of Sean McVay. That answer is not known right now.”

Is this something?

@JFowlerESPN

#Rams coach Sean McVay, whose future is in limbo, has permitted his coaching staff to search for other jobs without resistance, per sources. McVay said in a staff meeting that he doesn’t know what he will do next year and won’t block those who want to explore opportunities

SEATTLE

Michael Shawn-Duggar of The Athletic on Pete Carroll making the playoffs this season:

Pete Carroll and his Seattle Seahawks know they still have a job to do.

Beat the 49ers on Saturday. Then the Eagles next week. Win the NFC championship, then the Super Bowl. That was the expectation in the offseason, and nothing has changed in that regard.

Because finishing the job is Carroll’s sole focus, he is unlikely to publicly take a victory lap after producing a winning record and making the postseason for the 10th time in 13 years when most projected his team to be a five-win club.

Outside expectations have only so much value inside a team’s building, but the opinions of others were undoubtedly part of Seattle’s narrative this season. Geno Smith kicked the season off with his “I ain’t write back” quote on national television. During Carroll’s first media appearance on NBC’s local affiliate after the team made the playoffs Sunday night, he was asked by Hall of Fame left tackle Walter Jones how he kept the team together despite “all the noise outside.”

Part of the reason a nine-win season is worth celebrating is being able to scream “we told you so” to all the non-believers. The Seahawks’ social media accounts have spent the week pulling receipts and trolling people who dared declare this team wouldn’t accomplish anything except securing a high 2023 draft pick. They’ve come after some of the biggest names in NFL media like Colin Cowherd, Mike Florio and Skip Bayless.

Carroll’s answer to Jones’ question was both truthful and politically correct.

“We really did keep it in the building,” he said. “There was a lot of talk going on outside, and we knew that. We didn’t address that. We know what we’re doing. Our messaging and our intent is really what was most important — we really just kind of brushed it off. That wasn’t a factor for us.”

While that may be true, doesn’t Carroll — even at age 71 and in his 49th year coaching football — find some joy in proving people wrong?

“Yes, of course,” Carroll said Monday afternoon. “Heck yeah. I love doing that.”

This season presented Carroll with an opportunity unlike any other in his stint with the Seahawks. Toward the end of Russell Wilson’s 10-year run in Seattle, the quarterback perceived the Seahawks to be on a different wavelength when it came to charting a path toward their shared goal of winning multiple championships. Among those irreconcilable differences was: Which element of the offense should be featured and prioritized to maximize winning? Pete Carroll Ball and Let Russ Cook couldn’t co-exist.

In the end, the Seahawks moved on from Wilson, a franchise quarterback in his prime, and doubled down on Carroll and his philosophy. This decision was met with heavy scrutiny outside the building, much of it focused on Carroll’s perceived flaws.

He’s old. The game has passed him by. He’s stuck in the mud. His commitment to running the football is archaic.

Carroll heard all of it. Using it as motivation isn’t his style, necessarily, but Carroll is the ultimate competitor, so having his football acumen — of all things — come into question was another challenge. Another competition. Who would Carroll be to turn that down?

So, he and general manager John Schneider hatched a plan to field the most competitive team possible, one capable of winning it all. Sharing a division with the reigning Super Bowl champions, they embraced being the hunter, not the hunted. And they embraced the fact they knew what they were doing.

“People don’t get it,” Carroll admitted on his KIRO-AM radio show midway through the year, while his Seahawks were alone atop the NFC West at 4-3. “I love to show them. I love to prove it to them.”

Seattle has since fallen down a notch in the final NFC West standings, which is why the team is on the road for wild-card weekend against the second-seeded San Francisco 49ers, owners of a flawless division record. But the fact that Seattle is once again in the postseason is yet another flipping of the bird to those who lacked faith.

Because of the drastic changes made this offseason, the most dominant storyline of the year in Seattle was the personal challenge Carroll took on to prove he wouldn’t fall flat on his face without Wilson and Bobby Wagner, two of the best players in franchise history.

“It was a natural challenge,” Carroll said Monday. “There’s a lot more unknown. That’s what the experienced guys give you, more of the known stuff. And as you transition, you have to figure it out. It’s enthralling for me. …

“And it’s more likely when you’re younger that (mistakes are) going to happen. Bud Grant tried to teach me a long time ago … it’s hard to do it with rookies. So, I’ve been fighting. One of the things I love trying to prove that you can do — all the way back to USC we were trying to do that — (is) try to play young guys and make them fit in. There’s some big upside to that.”

The Seahawks are reaping the benefits already. Rookie first-round pick Charles Cross played every meaningful offensive snap for the Seahawks and demonstrated he can be the franchise’s long-term left tackle. There were bumps and bruises along the way, but by the end of the year, Seattle had the utmost confidence in the No. 9 pick in the 2022 draft. Facing fourth-and-1 in the fourth quarter of the Week 18 win over the Rams, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron called a toss play, trusting that Cross would win his one-on-one matchup on the edge, allowing Kenneth Walker III to run for a first down with the season on the line.

Speaking of Walker, the second-round running back is the odds-on favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year and became the second rookie in franchise history to rush for 1,000 yards. He finished with 1,215 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns, best among rookies in both categories.

Abraham Lucas is a serviceable right tackle with a high ceiling. He was a third-round pick. Outside linebacker Boye Mafe, a second-round pick, had three sacks off the bench as a rookie.

Coby Bryant had never played nickelback before August, and yet the fourth-round rookie out of Cincinnati developed into a versatile defender and finished second in the league with four forced fumbles and two sacks. Tariq Woolen, a fifth-round cornerback, became a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, Pro Bowler and one of the league’s best corners with the ball in the air. His six interceptions were tied for the league lead, and his 16 passes defensed ranked fourth.

The next Richard Sherman? Seahawks rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen is just getting started

Before Seattle knew its postseason fate Sunday evening, Smith lamented that the Seahawks didn’t control their destiny but acknowledged he was proud of the team regardless, saying in part: “To give ourselves a shot at the playoffs, to be above .500 with a young team who I believe pretty much everybody wrote us off, it speaks volumes to our head coach.”

Smith’s story is another example of Carroll having a vision others couldn’t see prior to the season.

The coach can’t take full credit because Smith is the one who spent the better part of the last seven years preparing for the moment. Even after a messy ending to his Jets tenure, Smith saw himself as the type of quarterback capable of unseating likely Hall of Famers Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson. To be a Pro Bowl player in Year 10 is largely his doing, the result of maximizing his potential while playing with two 1,000-yard receivers, a capable offensive line and a 1,000-yard rusher.

But the truth is Carroll was one of Smith’s most fervent supporters from the beginning. In a 10-minute monologue the day the Wilson trade became official, Carroll mentioned Smith’s name before he brought up Drew Lock — notable sequencing seeing as Smith was a free agent and Lock was part of the blockbuster deal with Denver.

When Smith re-signed in April, Carroll made him QB1 over Lock. The coach cited Smith’s familiarity with the system and the way he carved up the Jaguars in his lone victory as a starter in Week 8 of 2021, during which he completed his first 14 passes. Carroll often used that game as an example of how accurate Smith could be as a passer. Turns out, he was onto something. Smith just led the league in competition rate at 69.8 percent and had the lowest rate of off-target throws (6.8), according to TruMedia.

Smith is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent this offseason, and although there may be many teams vying for his services, it won’t be lost on anyone that he had the best year of his career in a Pete Carroll offense.

“The system is really good,” Carroll said Sunday when asked about Smith and the future of the quarterback position. He later added: “Our quarterback situation, if we can get him signed, is a great situation going forward. We know what we got.”

Of course, it hasn’t all been smooth sailing for Carroll, the architect behind the most influential defense of the modern era. Some of that defensive mojo is still missing because Seattle has struggled mightily on that side of the ball for the better part of the last six years, a stretch that includes three defensive coordinators.

This year was no different. The defense held Seattle back for most of the season, and the entire unit was inconsistent, starting with the front line. The two young inside linebackers tasked with filling Wagner’s shoes suffered serious growing pains while Wagner was thriving in Los Angeles, particularly against the run, which was Seattle’s Achilles heel most of the year.

One of the few bright spots is the fact that despite starting two rookie defensive backs, a journeyman cornerback in Mike Jackson and five different strong safeties beside Quandre Diggs, Seattle’s secondary was fairly competent in coverage most of the year. That’s a testament to Carroll and his assistants: defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt, associate head coach Sean Desai and passing game coordinator Karl Scott.

But Seattle’s defense as a whole ranked 25th by EPA per play (TruMedia) and 15th by DVOA (Football Outsiders). There were flashes of excellence but mostly extended periods of ineptitude. There’s not much of a victory lap to be taken there.

Looking at the bigger picture, though, Carroll had a tremendous impact on the position his team finds itself in.

Seattle didn’t exactly luck its way into being a nine-win team. The Seahawks outscored their opponents by six points, the 12th-best point differential in the league and a mark that bests the following playoff teams: Miami (minus-2), Minnesota (minus-3), the Giants (minus-6) and Tampa Bay (minus-45). Seattle finished 10th overall in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, which adjusts for opponent quality.

The 2022 Seahawks were a legit team and a far better one than most expected. They have a competitive roster and a bright future. They’re in the playoffs and have a top-five 2023 draft pick.

Yes, the Seahawks are 10-point underdogs in their third meeting with the 49ers. They lost the first two matchups by a combined 28 points and could very well see their season end at Levi’s Stadium.

But even if they don’t win the game, Carroll has won back any benefit of the doubt he lost in the offseason, and then some.

AFC WEST

DENVER

Is Jim Harbaugh, and not Sean Payton, the front-runner in Denver?  Tony Garcia of the Detroit Free Press:

The Denver Broncos officially began their search for a new head coach on Monday, and we’ll give you one guess as to who their first interview was with.

Michigan football coach Jim Harbaugh spoke with the Broncos during a two-hour virtual interview, according to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, the first coach Denver brass has spoken with since it fired first year coach Nathaniel Hackett on Dec. 26.

“It’s no secret Harbaugh has been weighing his NFL options in recent weeks,” Pelissero said on Good Morning Football. “He now has emerged as a top candidate in Denver.”

Harbaugh has connections to members of the Broncos ownership group and search committee, like Condoleeza Rice, who has deep ties to Stanford, where Harbaugh coached before his stint in the NFL. Broncos co-owner and CEO, Greg Penner, got his MBA from Stanford, too.

Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh watches drills at the Los Angeles Angels training facility in preparation before the Fiesta Bowl against TCU on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022, in Tempe, Arizona.

Per Pelissero’s report, Denver is also interested in bringing in Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator Demico Ryans, Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris and their own defensive coordinator, Ejiro Evero.

Harbaugh’s interview comes less than one week after he released a statement through Michigan’s athletic department that week which said in part, “I expect that I will be enthusiastically coaching Michigan in 2023″ with the caveat that “no man knows what the future holds.”

This is the second year in a row Harbaugh, 59, has kicked the tires on an NFL return. Last season he interviewed with the Minnesota Vikings, going as far as to fly to Minnesota on national signing day for an in-person interview with Vikings management.

He was not offered the job and while he returned to Ann Arbor, he did express he had a desire to coach again in the NFL. Harbaugh was 44-19-1 in four seasons with the 49ers from 2011-14, going to one Super Bowl (which he lost to his brother, John, and the Baltimore Ravens) and three NFC championship games.

Further muddying the waters of Harbaugh’s future is an impending investigation at Michigan.

On the same day Harbaugh released the statement about his future expectations last week, reports surfaced that the school received a notice of allegations from the NCAA.

The NCAA has sent U-M a draft of allegations, which multiple Level II violations which alleges the program contacted multiple prospects during the extended COVID-19 dead period, held practices with too many coaches on the field and watched practices through an unauthorized video feed.

Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh watches drills at the Los Angeles Angels training facility in preparation before the Fiesta Bowl against TCU on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022, in Tempe, Arizona.

Harbaugh is on the hook for a Level I violation — the most serious of offenses — for misleading investigators, the Free Press has confirmed.

“Yesterday, we received draft allegations from the NCAA regarding our football program,” Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel said in a statement on Friday. “We have cooperated and will continue to cooperate with this investigation. Out of respect to the NCAA’s enforcement process, we will not offer further comments.”

Harbaugh, 74-25 in eight seasons at U-M, has enjoyed unprecedented success over the past two years, going 25-3 with two wins over Ohio State, two Big Ten championships and two trips to the College Football Playoff.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The Chargers, the only one of the AFC Wild Card teams who would seem to have a chance this weekend and beyond, get some good injury news:

Los Angeles Chargers left tackle Rashawn Slater will return to practice this week, opening the 21-day window for his potential activation off injured reserve.

“He’s progressing well and we are excited to get him back out there,” coach Brandon Staley said Tuesday.

Slater, however, will not be activated ahead of Saturday’s AFC wild-card playoff against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field.

The Chargers placed Slater on injured reserve after he tore a left biceps tendon in a Week 3 loss to the Jaguars and later needed surgery.

Staley said Slater’s status would be “day-by-day” following Saturday’s game.

“He’s progressing well enough to get out there on the football field and he’s been working really, really hard, so I think just having him at practice is going to be great to see,” Staley said.

Rookie Jamaree Salyer, a sixth-round pick from Georgia, has started 14 games in Slater’s absence.

Slater, who was selected with the 13th overall pick in the the 2021 draft, earned Pro Bowl recognition as a rookie last season.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

With the Ravens needing QB LAMAR JACKSON, it looks like he will not be available.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

There’s growing pessimism about Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson’s availability for Sunday’s playoff game against the Bengals.

Jackson’s injured knee is still not quite right and it’s not looking good for him to be able to play this week, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.

That’s no surprise, given that Ravens head coach John Harbaugh didn’t sound particularly optimistic when giving a non-update about Jackson’s status on Monday.

Jackson suffered his knee injury on December 4 and at the time there were reports that he’d only miss a couple weeks. But Sunday will be six weeks from the injury, and it appears that he still won’t be ready.

Without Jackson, the Ravens are going to be long shots to beat the Bengals, which means that it’s entirely possible that Baltimore’s season will end on Sunday. Jackson is slated to become a free agent in March, and one of the biggest questions of this NFL offseason will be whether he and the Ravens can come to terms on a new contract.

– – –

The Ravens love what they gotten from LB ROQUAN SMITH – and more importantly Smith loves the Ravens and their cash.  Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com:

Pro Bowl middle linebacker Roquan Smith is set to remain the centerpiece of the Baltimore Ravens’ defense beyond half a season.

Smith reached an agreement on a five-year extension on Tuesday, a team source confirmed. The NFL Network is reporting the deal is worth $100 million, which would make him the highest-paid inside linebacker in the league at $20 million per season.

The extension with Smith not only will keep Baltimore’s top defensive player from becoming a free agent in two months; it will free up the Ravens to use the franchise tag on quarterback Lamar Jackson, who is finishing out the fifth-year option on his rookie contract.

Smith, 25, lived up to expectations since the Ravens acquired him in October from the Chicago Bears for second- and fifth-round picks in the 2023 NFL draft. A leader and tone-setter, Smith finished as the NFL’s third-leading tackler this season (169) for a Baltimore defense that allowed the third-fewest points (18.5), and he was named to the first Pro Bowl of his career.

“He wants to do the things that are required to be a great player and to be a great unit and then to impact your team,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said of Smith on Monday. “That’s what he’s all about — 100 percent — [and] that’s what I love about him. He’s one of the top guys I’ve ever seen that way, and I think that does always impact everybody as a leader, for sure.”

Smith has been the most impactful player in the second half of the season for Baltimore. In the Ravens’ first eight games without Smith, the defense ranked 20th in points allowed (22.9) and 24th in yards given up (364.3). In Baltimore’s nine games with Smith, the defense allowed the NFL’s second-fewest points (14.7) and held teams to the third-fewest yards (288.8).

He is the first player since Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis to record at least 100 tackles, multiple sacks and one interception in each of the first five years of a career.

AFC SOUTH

INDIANAPOLIS

Chris Ballard, still the GM, admits to less than optimum performance.  Nick Shook ofNFL.com:

Colts general manager Chris Ballard is entering another offseason in which he has to find an answer at quarterback.

It’s not quite Groundhog Day in Indianapolis, but it’s starting to get stale. It’s also not the only area in which Ballard knows he has to do a better job.

Ballard began his season-ending press conference Tuesday by bluntly admitting his mistakes, a refreshing response from a general manager who has been remarkably secure in his position when considering his team has fallen short of expectations in each of the last two seasons.

“Look, I failed. I’m not gonna sit up here and make excuses,” Ballard said. “I failed a lot of people. Highly disappointed about where we’re at, how the season went. I never take lightly what’s at stake here. It’s not the wins and losses, but people’s lives are on the line. Players’ families, coaches’ families, front office, people in this building, and I don’t ever take that lightly. I’m disappointed. Disappointed in where we’re at, and ultimately, it falls on my shoulders.

“I won’t walk away from that. I won’t run from it. Saying that, we’ll grow from it. And I’ll grow from it. And I’ll get better because of it.”

Since Andrew Luck stunned the football world by retiring just before the 2019 season, Ballard has been unable to shake the same issue that plagues most every club lacking a franchise quarterback. Philip Rivers proved to be a quality one-year stopgap, but trials with Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan have flopped. In 2022, it cost head coach Frank Reich his job and increased the temperature of Ballard’s seat to its highest since he took over in 2017.

“When you’re changing quarterbacks every year, it’s tough,” Ballard said. “It’s tough on everybody. … Not getting that position settled, you know, has a little something to do with it.”

Despite his failures, Ballard remains employed by Jim Irsay’s Colts. In today’s NFL, in which the leash on coaches and executives seems to only grow shorter with each passing year, Ballard is approaching unstable ground, making his next decision at the game’s most important position even more significant.

It likely won’t include Ryan, who proved in his one-year trial he wasn’t good enough to command the starting role in Indianapolis. Ballard expressed gratitude for Ryan’s contributions while also admitting the Colts’ problems extended beyond the game’s most important position. Simply, Indianapolis won’t improve if Ballard doesn’t fix the problems at both quarterback and within the group tasked with protecting the quarterback.

“That’s not an indictment of Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan is as professional a guy, player that I’ve been around,” Ballard said.” I still think he’s got something left in his body to play. He’s smart, knows how to play the game. Looking back, early in the season we had some changes to the offensive line and that’s where our struggles occurred early. We just never really recovered from them.”

Indianapolis’ decline up front was startling to witness in 2022. Under Ballard’s direction, the Colts had built a reputation for having one of the league’s best lines for much of the last five years, and returned three key linemen Ballard believed would help the group continue to perform at a high level.

Instead, like Ballard, they failed to do their jobs well enough to win, especially in the first half of the season.

“It took us a while to get some continuity. I probably underestimated that,” Ballard said. “I thought, we’ve been so good up front for the last few years, I thought with the three really good players we had coming back in Braden (Smith), Ryan Kelly and Quenton (Nelson), that we would absorb those other positions and they would come up to speed right away. And it just didn’t occur that way.”

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

Doctors in Buffalo agree with doctors in Cincinnati that S DAMAR HAMLIN is good to go, nine days after his scary collapse per The Athletic:

Bills safety Damar Hamlin has been discharged from Buffalo General Medical Center/Gates Vascular Institute to continue his recovery at home, the team announced Wednesday. Here’s what you need to know:

Hamlin heads home nine days after he collapsed and went into cardiac arrest during a “Monday Night Football” game against the Bengals.

After spending six days at the University of Cincinnati Medical Center, he was released from the Ohio hospital and flew to Buffalo to continue his recovery at a local hospital.

Hamlin had a comprehensive medical evaluation and underwent a series of cardiac, neurological and vascular testing Tuesday, per the Bills.

What they’re saying

“We are confident that Damar can be safely discharged to continue his rehabilitation at home and with the Bills,” Dr. Jamie Nadler, a critical care physician and the chief quality officer at Kaleida Heath, said in the team’s statement.

MIAMI

It looks like both the Bengals (LAMER JACKSON heading towards “out”) and Bills (TUA) will have a pretty clear path to a meeting in the divisional playoffs. In fact as we go to press, the Dolphins have ruled Tua out and expect rookie QB SKYLAR THOMPSON to start. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Sixteen days ago, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered at least his second concussion of the year. He has yet to be cleared to play.

Five days from a playoff game in Buffalo, it remains to be seen whether he will be.

Frankly, it’s hard to see it happening. Tagovailoa has become the unwitting face and name most associated with head trauma in pro football. During the 2022 season, he has had two, maybe three, head injuries that have occurred when his head struck the turf. Every time he plays, there’s a real chance it will happen again.

Tua technically will be able to play after he’s cleared under the five-step return to play protocol. At this point, what responsible doctor will sign off on letting Tua play again? And what kind of messages could they be getting from a broader football power structure that is still reeling from the horrifying on-field cardiac arrest suffered by Bills safety Damar Hamlin?

At this point, the last thing the NFL needs is another serious on-field injury. Tua provided exactly that, in Week Four against the Bengals.

Ultimately, Dolphins owner Stephen Ross makes the call on whether Tua does or doesn’t play. Some think he should have kept Tua from playing on that fateful night in Cincinnati, four days after Tua struck his head on the ground and clearly wobbled before inexplicably being cleared to return to a game against the Bills.

Even if the doctors clear Tua to play against Buffalo, Ross has to sign off on it. It’s hard to imagine Ross letting it happen.

It’s also hard to imagine Ross not thinking once again about whether there’s a better short- and long-term answer at quarterback than Tua, someone who can and will avoid suffering head injuries.

Is that fair? Is that right? It’s frankly no different from being not strong enough or not fast enough or not skilled enough or too old or two expensive or too whatever to play in the NFL. Tua is too susceptible to concussions, and that could be the thing that causes his NFL opportunities to evaporate well before his skills would have otherwise diminished.