The Daily Briefing Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Paul Truzkowski on trends from the first weekend of the playoffs:

The first round of the NFL playoffs is in the books. Fourteen teams entered the postseason, and just eight remain as we head into the divisional round. It was a weird weekend of games with only two offering much in the way of intrigue and drama in the fourth quarter. Before we look ahead to the divisional round, it’s important to look back on what we saw and what we could learn from it.

Favorites rule the day

Favorites went a robust 5-1 both straight up and against the spread over the weekend. The only favorite to fail to cover was the Dallas Cowboys. All of the other favorites won by at least a touchdown with four of the favorites winning by two scores or more.

A common take from this past weekend is that perhaps expanding the playoffs wasn’t a good idea if it’s going to lead to blowouts and uncompetitive games that dragged on. This take seems quite reactionary when just last season we saw Cleveland beat Pittsburgh on the road. We also saw the Colts hang with the Bills during last year’s wild-card round, and the Taylor Heinicke-led Football Team gave the eventual Super Bowl champions a competitive game.

The Patriots and Cardinals weren’t exactly competitive in their games, and I don’t see people suggesting those teams should have been excluded from the playoffs. Last season, every wild-card game was within 12 points. This season, that wasn’t the case. This will probably vary on a season-by-season basis. However, there’s one trend that doesn’t seem to vary.

First-time quarterbacks struggle

Entering this past weekend, first-time playoff quarterbacks going against quarterbacks who had previous playoff experience were a gross 14-32-1 against the spread. The thought process checks out. Playoff games are a new animal, and it might be overwhelming to a young quarterback who has never experienced it. An experienced quarterback knows what he’s about to deal with.

Five quarterbacks made their playoff debuts this past weekend: Derek Carr, Joe Burrow, Mac Jones, Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray.

For the purpose of this exercise, Carr and Burrow are excluded because they went head-to-head. There was no advantage to be had there.

The other three quarterbacks went 0-3 straight up, 0-3 against the spread and were outscored by a combined score of 112-43. Jones’ Patriots fell behind 27-0. Hurts’ Eagles went down 31-0. Murray’s Cardinals fell behind 28-0.

There are always exceptions to every rule. Baker Mayfield and the Browns trounced the Steelers in Mayfield’s playoff debut in 2021, despite Ben Roethlisberger having all the experience in the world. We’ll never forget the runs of Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco. However, 14-35-1 speaks for itself. Fading first-time starters against experienced starters is good for a 71.4% win rate against the spread. Sign me up.

We always think that it might be different. The Patriots will control the ball with their defense and run game and turn Jones into a game manager. He also played big games at Alabama. He’s different. Murray has been in the league for years and spent half this season as the MVP favorite. He too played big games at Oklahoma. He’s different. Hurts is a different quarterback, he can run the ball. He doesn’t rely on his arm. He also played big college games at Alabama and Oklahoma. He’s different.

It doesn’t matter, as we learned this past weekend. First-time starters in the playoffs are not worth an investment.

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

S BUDHA BAKER is out of the hospital after Monday night’s scare.  Josh Weinfuss ofESPN.com:

Arizona Cardinals safety Budda Baker was taken off the field on a stretcher after a violent collision late in the third quarter of Monday night’s NFC wild-card game against the Los Angeles Rams.

He was ruled out of the game with a concussion but did have movement and feeling in his extremities as he was carted off the field.

The Cardinals later said he was taken to the hospital for further evaluation and was alert and communicative. The team announced Tuesday afternoon that Baker has been released from the hospital after being cleared by doctors following testing and is on his way back to Arizona.

Baker tweeted early Tuesday morning that he was “doing good.”

Later Tuesday, Baker posted a video on his Instagram Story, expressing thanks for the support he has received and saying he’s “going to make a full recovery.”

“I just want to say thank you for all the well wishes and the prayers from everyone and I appreciate you guys. Everything came out clean and I’m going to make a full recovery. So, definitely blessed,” he said.

Baker hit Rams running back Cam Akers with 1:51 left in the third quarter around the Cardinals’ 5-yard line. He lowered his head and left shoulder before hitting Akers’ knee.

Baker fell to the ground, and almost instantly Cardinals linebacker Jordan Hicks was waving to the sideline for help.

“It was just a football play,” Akers said. “It wasn’t nothing personal. I’ve got the utmost respect for Budda and that team.”

SAN FRANCISCO

QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO expects to play on Saturday night.  Charean Williams ofProFootballTalk.com:

Jimmy Garoppolo was asked Tuesday whether his thumb or his shoulder hurt worse.

“Yes,” he answered to laughter.

The 49ers quarterback entered Sunday’s game with a torn ligament in his right thumb. He left with a slight sprain of his throwing shoulder.

Garoppolo injured his shoulder in the second quarter of the win over Dallas while trying to protect his thumb as he hit the ground.

“Got thrown down, went to put my hand out, and sort of had it in my head if my thumb hit I didn’t know what was going to happen,” Garoppolo said. “So, yeah, tried to catch it with my elbow a little bit and just jammed the shoulder up. Yeah, that was about it.”

In the second half, Garoppolo completed only 5 of 11 passes for 39 yards with an interception that allowed the Cowboys back in the game. The 49ers held on for a 23-17 victory.

“If you’re a quarterback, it affects every throw,” Garoppolo said. “It definitely had some impact, but if I’m out there and being put in that spot, I’ve still got to make the plays that I normally make. No excuses or anything like that. The injury is what it is. We’re all dealing with stuff now.”

The 49ers are practicing tonight, and Kyle Shanahan said in the afternoon that Garoppolo would have a limited practice. Garoppolo was limited on the first practice day last week before two full practices.

He said he expects to start Saturday against the Packers.

“Yeah, we’ll feel it out throughout the week,” Garoppolo said. “Just feeling good right now.”

LOS ANGELES RAMS

The acquisition of EDGE VON MILLER has begun to pay off. Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:

When Von Miller arrived on the Rams in a mid-season trade with the Broncos, it took him a little time to find his fit in the defense. But Miller now has six sacks in the Rams’ last five games, and he says everything is coming together.

“We’re just jelling at the right time. We’ve been doing the same thing since I’ve got here, and it’s working,” Miller said.

Miller expects the Rams to have their toughest challenge yet on Sunday against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

“It’s tough. We’re going to need all 11 guys,” Miller said. “Tom sees the whole field. We all know about Tom in the playoffs. He’s incredible. We’ve got to play our best ball to have a chance, but if we can play our best ball I like our opportunity.”

has faced Brady in the playoffs twice before, with Miller’s Broncos getting blown out by Brady’s Patriots in the 2012 divisional round, and Miller getting 2.5 sacks on Brady as the Broncos beat the Patriots in the 2016 AFC Championship Game. Miller is excited for their rubber match on Sunday.

AFC WEST

LAS VEGAS

The Raiders were looking for Mike Mayock’s replacement at GM before he knew (or at least before Mike Florio and the media knew) he needed replacing.

Pressed into a prominent role after the forced resignation of coach Jon Gruden, Raiders G.M. Mike Mayock stabilized the situation and provided much of the leadership that helped propel the team to a highly unlikely playoff berth.

Mayock’s reward wasn’t simply to be fired, but to have his departure handled in a clunky, clumsy way by owner Mark Davis. The man who inherited the team from his father surely has a perfectly good explanation for allowing word of requests to interview replacements to emerge before the firing of Mayock was announced. Whatever that explanation may be, it doesn’t change the fact that it happened — and that it shouldn’t have.

Even if Mayock knew his fate before he saw tweets regarding the team’s interest in Patriots executive Dave Ziegler and Colts assistant G.M. Ed Dodds, the fact that fans and media spent an hour or so on Monday afternoon saying, “What the f–k?” is an outcome Mayock didn’t deserve. Indeed, no G.M. deserves that.

The move strongly suggests that interim coach Rich Bisaccia won’t be getting the permanent job. The new G.M. will either hire the next coach, or Davis will hire a package deal at the two main positions. With plenty of players wanting Bisaccia, the transition may not go smoothly.

At some point, it would be useful for Davis to explain his plans to the fans. The plan could be that he has no plan, which based on how the plan for firing Mayock and launching the search for his replacement unfolded may be the case.

The situation in Las Vegas underscores the compelling disconnect between multi-billion-dollar football operations and the monarchies that run them. Mark Davis is qualified to own and operate the Raiders by DNA, and nothing more. He has done little over a decade of running the team to show that he can do it at a high level, beyond stumbling into a golden opportunity to move to Las Vegas after Plan A (a return to L.A.) fell apart. Gruden, the signature hire of the Davis tenure, had three meh years before 2021 got off to a great start, until it didn’t.

With Gruden (who had a 10-year contract) now gone, Davis has a big move to make. Which means he first has to figure out his next move. While it’s unclear where Davis will go from here, it is clear that one of the men who had to deal with the aftermath of Gruden’s mess is gone, and that the other one, Bisaccia, likely will be next.

– – –

Yesterday, we asked if QB MATTHEW STAFFORD was no longer the best QB without a playoff win, who now held that title?  Of those currently active, the answer would seem to be QB DEREK CARR – but Marc Sessler of NFL.com is anxious to find him a new home:

Why would the Las Vegas Raiders move on from Derek Carr?

The quarterback spent this season tugging the team to an improbable playoff appearance amid waves of organizational turmoil and tragedy. Carr morphed into the beating heart of the franchise while producing reels of largely positive tape.

Heroics noted, but the Raiders of today sit mired in transition. General manager Mike Mayock has been fired. Owner Mark Davis will hunt for his replacement, along with, presumably, a new head coach. Carr has openly pushed for Rich Bisaccia to return, but the interim leader is far from a shoo-in to land the job. Especially considering how Davis tractor beams toward starry big names — the Jon Grudens and Jim Harbaughs of the world.

NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Saturday that “Las Vegas and Carr have a mutual decision to make this offseason, and sources say the choice of the head coach will be a factor.”

What if a new regime doesn’t want to hand Carr — who’ll be in a contract year in 2022 — the hefty extension many believe he deserves? Davis reigns over that verdict, too, but this is an owner who allegedly courted Tom Brady with Carr still planted under center.

It’s hot-stove chatter for now — a parlor game of the mind — but where will Carr be taking snaps next season? Here’s my list, beginning with the most sensible result:

1 – Las Vegas Raiders

2021 record: 10-7

Carr is set to make $19.8 million in the final year of his deal. Extension talks stay silent at least until Davis finishes this hiring cycle. How does the Raiders owner feel about Carr as his quarterback for another five years? Was he turned off by some of the passer’s costly mistakes down the stretch, including a doomed final lob in Saturday’s wild-card loss to the Bengals?

Carr isn’t Aaron Rodgers. He’s in that next tier of passers. Still, Carr is a solidifying force inside the locker room with the physical tools to roll as a top-10 signal-caller. He’s a selling point to coaching candidates versus what’s behind Door No. 2: Searching the vast wilderness for a better option. Unless you’re angling to trade for a Russell Wilson-type figure, why the wandering eye?

Besides, Carr has talked repeatedly about his desire to remain a Raider for life. I don’t see that changing unless he’s vastly unhappy with the decision at head coach. Or maybe Davis ultimately gets cold feet about clinging to Carr for another half decade. No new money would almost certainly trigger a divorce.

2 – Indianapolis Colts

2021 record: 9-8

Colts owner Jim Irsay telegraphed his distrust in Carson Wentz when he penned a letter to fans.

“We ended our season in perhaps the worst way possible and missed our chance to compete for history,” he wrote, before adding: “The buck stops with me.”

Indianapolis’ apocalyptic Week 18 loss to the Jaguars ejector-seated the Colts out of the playoff picture and placed a burning spotlight on Wentz, who committed two crushing turnovers, threw for just 185 yards and absorbed six sacks by Jacksonville’s defense. Trading for Wentz last offseason also wound up costing Indy a first-round pick.

Wentz and the Colts feel destined for Splitsville, but the quarterback market lacks juice. An available Carr would vibe with Frank Reich, a masterful coach searching for a long-term answer under center ever since Andrew Luck turned into a Force ghost before the 2019 campaign.

3 – New Orleans Saints

2021 record: 9-8

I imagine this makes Saints fans nervous. Any quarterback would cause jitters after eons of Drew Brees under center. New Orleans is learning how hard it is to find the next guy. It sure doesn’t feel like Taysom Hill, who keeps netting new money from the team but fits better as a saucy Swiss Army knife than a 17-game starter. I don’t see Jameis Winston returning.

Sean Payton endured a long campaign steering a quarterback clown car into the abyss. The Saints are a candidate to explore trades for everyone from Wilson to Rodgers to fill in the blank. Carr represents the next-best thing, but he’s a viable option for a team expected to aggressively upgrade at the most important position in sports.

4 – Pittsburgh Steelers

2021 record: 9-7-1

In the wake of Sunday night’s season-ending beatdown at Kansas City, I assume Ben Roethlisberger is finally where he needs to be: pounding strawberry daiquiris at some all-inclusive in Antigua. Back in Pittsburgh, the Steelers begin a search for his successor. Mason Rudolph cannot be the final answer unless you root for the Ravens, Bengals or Browns. Mike Tomlin doesn’t seem like the guy to start over with a rookie, either, although making a move in the draft for hometown hero Kenny Pickett would thrill Yinzer types. Carr is an obvious upgrade over Mason or Dwayne Haskins and would give the Steelers direction instead of a one-year patch.

5 – Washington Football Team

2021 record: 7-10

Ron Rivera has toiled through the past two seasons with starts under center from Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Dwayne Haskins, Garrett Gilbert and Taylor Heinicke. Ryan Fitzpatrick, signed last offseason to stabilize the position, was lost to a hip injury in Week 1. Heinicke has a decade-plus career ahead as a high-end backup and spot starter, but Washington shouldn’t hesitate on finding a juicier option. Carr’s leadership and play would mesh well with Rivera’s desire to attach himself to a trusty veteran. It’s hard to take this club seriously if it fails to heat-seek a proven arm.

Points beyond

New York Giants

2021 record: 4-13

A new general manager and coach will decide whether to roll with hot-and-cold Daniel Jones or seek out something shinier. The new regime also will inherit a messy cap situation that currently has Big Blue $19 million in the red. Carr doesn’t feel like an easy fit in the Big Apple, but he’d have the chance to raise a once-proud franchise out of the mire.

Carolina Panthers

2021 record: 5-12

I’m operating under the assumption that Vegas would release Carr or engineer a trade he approves of. The Panthers are coming off a sloppy season and house one of the ugliest offensive lines league-wide. Matt Rhule heads toward the 2022 campaign on a seat getting warmer by the hour. Not a brilliant mix.

Houston Texans

2021 record: 4-13

At the moment, I don’t see any scenario where the Raiders trade Carr to the Texans — an evil trigger-pull — or the quarterback ever willingly chooses to go there (see: Carr, David). Perhaps the scenery changes with a top-shelf coaching hire and a final answer on Deshaun Watson, but don’t hold your breath.

AFC NORTH

CINCINNATI

QB JOE BURROW understands the ecstasy of Bengals fans this week, but he says a playoff victory will not be unusual going forward.  Myles Simmons ofProFootballTalk.com:

The Bengals ended a 31-year postseason victory drought by defeating the Raiders on Saturday.

While that’s nothing to outright dismiss, quarterback Joe Burrow didn’t make a big deal out of it at the time. As he explained on Tuesday, that’s because he feels like the bar has been raised for Cincinnati’s expectations.

 “I think the fans were very excited, but I tried to downplay it and all that because this is how it’s going to be from here on out,” Burrow said in his press conference. “It was a great win for us, but this is the standard — the bare minimum every year going forward.”

Burrow finished the game 24-of-34 passing for 244 yards with a pair of touchdowns and no turnovers. He hasn’t committed a giveaway since Cincinnati’s Week 13 loss to the Chargers.

Burrow noted his mentality wasn’t much different for last week’s game since the Bengals needed to keep winning in December to make the postseason.

“I think I’ve just played in a lot of big games throughout my career, whether it’s this year — I mean, every game in the last half of the season was a playoff game,” Burrow said. “Or those games playing in the College Football Playoffs and the championship, I think I’ve been in that situation before.”

Burrow will face another significant test against the Titans on Saturday. But based on his track record, the young quarterback should be ready for it.

CLEVELAND

DT MALIK McDOWELL has had emotional problems in the past – and now it is likely he assaulted a police officer.  Jake Trotter of ESPN.com:

Cleveland Browns defensive tackle Malik McDowell was arrested Monday in Florida on charges of battery on a law enforcement officer, resisting arrest with violence and public exposure, according to an online record from the Broward Sheriff’s Office.

According to the arrest report, McDowell beat a deputy in a “violent attack” that left the officer “dazed” and fearing a “permanent injury” to his right eye. McDowell is being held on a $27,000 bond, according to the online record.

“We are aware of the very concerning incident and arrest involving Malik McDowell and are in the process of gathering more information,” a Browns spokesperson said in a statement. “We understand the severity of this matter and our thoughts are for the well-being of all involved. We will have no further comment at this time.”

According to the incident report, police in Deerfield Beach, Florida, reported getting a call of a naked man walking near a school, later to be determined as a children’s learning center that was in session. When confronted, McDowell charged at police “full speed with closed fist,” according to the report, leaving a deputy injured. The officer said he was unable to avoid McDowell’s attack or use any “de-escalation tactics.” McDowell slammed into the officer and punched him in the right eye and on the top of the head, according to the report.

McDowell then fled, but eventually was shocked with a Taser and handcuffed. The officer said his right eye was nearly closed because of swelling from the punches he absorbed in the attack and there is a “likelihood that I sustained permanent injury to my eye.”

The Seattle Seahawks selected McDowell out of Michigan State in the second round of the 2017 NFL draft. But before his first season, he suffered a head injury in an ATV accident. He never played a down for Seattle, which released him before training camp the following summer.

In 2019, McDowell was charged in Michigan with driving while impaired, obstructing justice and assaulting a police officer. Video showed McDowell fighting with police even after they stunned him with a Taser following a DUI stop. Two months later, he was found in possession of a stolen truck, leading to another charge of receiving and concealing stolen property. He was sentenced to 11 months in jail and three years’ probation after pleading guilty to the series of crimes.

The Browns gave McDowell a second chance at football last year, with Cleveland general manager Andrew Berry noting that McDowell had been “accountable for his actions” and was “in a good place, personally and medically.”

McDowell went on to win a starting job at defensive tackle for the Browns this past season, finishing with 33 tackles and three sacks.

AFC SOUTH

JACKSONVILLE

GM Trent Baalke’s top pick apparently did not even make it to the second round of Jaguars coaching interviews.  Chase Goodbread of NFL.com:

Among a deep list of candidates for the Jacksonville Jaguars’ head coaching job, it appears Bill O’Brien won’t be rising to the top.

The Alabama offensive coordinator is unlikely to be the team’s choice, according to NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo. The Jaguars must replace Urban Meyer, who was fired midseason during his failed first year as an NFL coach.

O’Brien interviewed for the job earlier this month, and was among a lengthy list of candidates the club sought to interview, including Cowboys coordinators Kellen Moore and Dan Quinn, Buccaneers coordinators Byron Leftwich and Todd Bowles, Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and former NFL head coaches Doug Pederson and Jim Caldwell. The team also planned to interview interim coach Darrell Bevell.

Garafolo, speaking on NFL Now, said he was “not getting that vibe” from his sources that O’Brien would be the team’s choice despite the presumption that he is a favored candidate for Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke. Per Garafolo, the Jaguars have completed their first round of interviews and are entering the second phase of their search with follow-up interviews. The Jaguars finished the season 2-14, and now hold the No. 1 pick of the NFL draft for the second consecutive year.

O’Brien coached the Houston Texans for six-plus seasons before being fired after an 0-4 start in 2020. With a 52-48 record in Houston, O’Brien won the AFC South four times, but his teams struggled in the postseason.

He became Alabama’s offensive coordinator last year, and the Crimson Tide averaged 488 yards per game with a first-year starter at quarterback who won the Heisman Trophy in Bryce Young. Alabama finished the season 13-2 with a CFP championship game loss to Georgia, after which O’Brien interviewed with the Jaguars.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

Just marveling at the fact that Brian Flores was fired by the Dolphins after going 19-12 in his final 31 games as coach – without being provided accomplished quarterbacking.

So either Dolphins management made an irrational decision or Flores really was a cultural problem.  Yet so many teams seem interested in looking at his record and giving him another chance.

Marek Brave of ThePhinsInsider.com offers these thoughts:

Brian Flores’ tenure as Miami head coach ended unceremoniously last week, just one day removed from completing the Dolphins’ first back-to-back-winning-seasons stretch since the 2002 and 2003 seasons.

Many people – fans and media alike – were shocked by the news.

And then the rumors started to trickle out, putting the hazy picture into much clearer focus.

Was Brian Flores the driving force for all of the trade speculation surrounding embattled Houston Texans starting quarterback, Deshaun Watson? Every outlet outside of Pro Football Talk seems to think so.

Did Miami quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, and Brian Flores have a contentious relationship that combusted at halftime of the Dolphins’ loss to the Tennessee Titans – a loss that effectively knocked them out of the playoff race? With reports of curse words being flung across the locker room, many sources have seemingly confirmed those stories as well.

Are Brian Flores and Deshaun Watson tying their futures together and pitching their partnership to teams considering the former Miami head coach for their vacant position? According to NFL insider, Jordan Schultz, that does appear to be the case.

Looking back at the evidence, this scenario should have been foreseen far in advance. All we needed to do was follow the bread crumbs and we would have been led back to Flores’ office where he would have most likely been whispering sweet nothings into his telephone, only for them to end up entering the ear-hole of Deshaun Watson on the daily. I kid… Maybe.

How was Tua Tagovailoa supposed to succeed when his head coach was undercutting him at every opportunity? Let’s take a look at some of the damning facts – and also some unconfirmed, yet widely believed speculations:

Tua was inserted into Miami’s starting lineup during his rookie season before he was fully healed from a devastating hip injury sustained during his final college appearance

Tua was pulled from games where he struggled – being replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick on multiple occasions during his rookie season

Miami’s offensive line was one of the worst pass-blocking units in all of football and, arguably, the worst offensive line in team history

Tua was surrounded by the worst pass-catching core in regards to separation in the entire NFL during his rookie season

After just his first year, trade rumors – allegedly fueled by Flores himself – were aplenty, and did not cease even when the subject of those rumors was accused of twenty-two sexual misconduct allegations

It has been alleged that Flores had Tagovailoa tested for performance enhancing drugs as many as four times in the offseason due to the mass that the young quarterback had been cultivating

Tua was sent to injured-reserve this season even while telling those closest to him that he was healthy enough to play, leading some to believe that Flores did so in retaliation for what he perceived as “insubordination”

During his two-year tenure in Miami, Tua has played for 4 different offensive coordinators – 5 if you include Charlie Frye who was calling plays early on in the 2021 season – due to turnover attributed to Flores’ inability to maintain positive relationships with those who work closest to him

After Flores’ dismissal, suddenly Miami Dolphins owner, Stephen Ross, no longer has an interest in acquiring Deshaun Watson from Houston, nor does GM, Chris Grier

It’s true that General Manager, Chris Grier, shoulders equal blame for the personnel decisions, as roster building in Miami was a collaborative effort between he and Flores, according to multiple sources. However, it wasn’t Grier who was pushing for the Dolphins to trade for Deshaun Watson. That was a Brian Flores special.

___

Tua Tagovailoa is not a perfect NFL quarterback. After two years in the league, no one is claiming that he is. But what some are advocating for, myself included, is that Miami finally gives him the support system that any young quarterback requires – both on the field and in the headset.

Tua’s offensive coordinator during his freshman season at Alabama, Buffalo Bills OC Brian Daboll, interviewed for the head-coaching position with Miami yesterday. Daboll once famously stated that Tagovailoa had “keyhole accuracy.” He’s clearly a fan, so one would assume that he would do anything and everything within his power to build Tua up, allowing him to learn and grow under-center for Miami with the hope of Tagovailoa proving himself to be the unquestioned future at the QB position for the Dolphins.

Mike McDaniel, San Francisco’s offensive coordinator, is another highly respected offensive mind. If he can be lured away from the Shanahan coaching tree once the 49ers’ playoff run is over, he would surely give a boost to Miami’s offense, Tua Tagovailoa included.

No matter who gets hired on as Miami’s head coach, their main objective will be to help Tua Tagovailoa become an upper-echelon starting quarterback in the NFL. It is very hard to win playoff games without one (just look at what happened to New England on Saturday).

Whether Miami chooses Brian Daboll, Mike McDaniel – or even guys like Dallas OC Kellen Moore, Rams RB coach Thomas Brown, or a slew of other defensive names I haven’t even gotten into – that coach would struggle to do a worse job at cultivating a positive professional relationship with Tua Tagovailoa than Brian Flores did. At the very least, they would likely not be leading the charge for an alleged sexual predator to take over his position.

THIS AND THAT

INSIDER PREDICTIONS

Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com gets some anonymous predictions from NFL insiders:

The NFL promises change. Impatient owners and general managers fire coaches after one or two years. Quarterbacks like the sound of new homes. Franchises embrace rebuilds with more frequency, and draft picks are traded like baseball cards on a school bus. And if Tom Brady can sign with Tampa Bay in 2020, then nothing appears off the table in 2022.

At the end of last season, we asked league executives and coaches to make predictions about what was next for the NFL in the coming year. That list included a surprising number of hits: Carson Wentz to Indianapolis, Alex Smith retiring, a potential Julio Jones deal, the 49ers keeping Jimmy Garoppolo but getting QB help and the Patriots drafting a quarterback high. Sure, the misses — Mitchell Trubisky re-signing with Chicago and Sam Darnold to Pittsburgh — were glaring. But this is less about the batting average and more about the canvas of topics people around the league discuss.

This year’s edition — predictions for 2022, from offseason movement to what happens on the field next fall — will bring more of the same, with execs and insiders offering insights into league thinking as free agency and the draft approach. What’s next for the NFL this year?

Here are 10 big things that people around the league think could happen in the next 12 months, starting with a big quarterback decision for an AFC team.

Colts will think long and hard about replacing QB Carson Wentz — but ultimately decide to keep him

The Colts’ noncommittal approach to Wentz in postseason news conferences got the attention of opposing teams. Neither coach Frank Reich nor GM Chris Ballard endorsed Wentz as the unquestioned starter in 2022.

“I won’t make a comment on who’s going to be here and who’s not going to be here,” Ballard told reporters last week. “That’s not fair.”

Fair enough. But when your quarterback is due $22 million next season and was acquired for first- and third-round picks via trade, anything less than a full commitment stands out. Some evaluators are starting to wonder if the Colts are frustrated enough to make another change at quarterback. One NFC scout could see Indy pursuing the Raiders’ Derek Carr — assuming he’s available, which is a big assumption after he led Las Vegas to the playoffs.

“[The Colts] should be in the playoffs, that’s what I keep going back to,” an NFC exec said. “They are on the cusp. At the very least, I bet they look at all of their options and eventually make that move if there’s an opening.”

Wentz played respectable football, completing 322 of 516 passes (62.4%) for 3,563 yards, 27 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. But he couldn’t elevate Indianapolis in big moments, most notably the 11-point clunker in an ugly Week 18 loss to Jacksonville that kept Indy out of the playoffs.

Financially, Indianapolis could trade or cut Wentz with minimal penalty. His contract carries a $28.3 million cap hit in 2022 against $15 million in dead cap, so the Colts could save money by walking away (a post-June 1 trade or release could prorate that dead cap over multiple years). But in that scenario, they’d have to pay the quarterback replacing Wentz, which could offset that cost and then some.

What could stall any move is the scarcity of cost-effective options. A team that values draft picks like air wouldn’t want to give up capital for a second consecutive year to secure another team’s quarterback. And it’s hard to say the free-agent or draft pool offers better quarterback play in the short term.

And so the Colts and Wentz might be stuck with each other. Unless owner Jim Irsay has completely lost patience, which could be the case after he issued a statement and a social media video expressing deep disappointment with the team’s performance this season.

“I just think [Ballard] is trying to send the message that everything is about competition after that bad loss, so there’s no reason to publicly endorse Wentz now,” an AFC exec said. “But I’m guessing they will eventually.”

Eagles will shop for a new QB in 2022

Jalen Hurts led the Eagles to the playoffs but struggled at times with accuracy and bailing on the pocket too early. As one NFL personnel evaluator said, “He just doesn’t see it fast enough” as far as diagnosing the defense and making the correct read on time.

That’s why, behind aggressive GM Howie Roseman, the Eagles should at least scour the quarterback market. Contention might require it.

“When you have three first-round picks and you don’t have a top guy at quarterback, you have to exhaust that option,” an AFC exec said.

The Eagles were long rumored to be interested in Houston’s Deshaun Watson, so they could monitor his market once again and see if Watson would be willing to go there. There hasn’t been much momentum around him wanting to do that, though. (Watson has been accused of sexual assault and inappropriate behavior in 22 active lawsuits, and there would obviously need to be clarity on that situation before such a move.) Alternatively, Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins is the kind of established passer who might interest Philly, though his $45 million cap hit would be an issue.

Washington will trade for Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Though Garoppolo would be a solid option for the 49ers’ offense in 2022 — which would give Trey Lance another year to develop — most execs agree that starting Lance is probably best because San Francisco can capitalize on the rookie-wage-scale savings while also giving him valuable experience. And so, the 49ers should spend part of the offseason pumping Garoppolo’s trade market.

Meanwhile, it’s time for Washington to solidify its passing game for the first time in the Ron Rivera era. One NFC scout says Washington’s offense can accommodate Garoppolo’s skill set.

“I have some concerns about Garoppolo outside of the Kyle Shanahan offense, but Washington has some in-breaking stuff that would be similar,” the exec said. “It wouldn’t be as much of an issue if you can define throws for him.”

I don’t get the sense a return for Garoppolo would be that pricey, either. Some teams believe you shouldn’t have to give up a first-round pick for him because it’s known that San Francisco is probably ready to play Lance, thus hurting its leverage. Plus, his $24 million salary on the last year of his deal must be reworked. But Garoppolo has played well enough to garner at least a strong Day 2 pick.

Falcons will trade WR Calvin Ridley to a contender

Ridley missed 12 games after stepping away from football to work on his mental health. But assuming he’s back in an NFL lineup in 2022 and is in a good space, several teams view him as a top-10 receiver. His market would be robust. Ridley is due a fifth-year option of $11.16 million next season.

“Atlanta is cash-strapped and needs pieces along the offensive line, so they could use the draft capital,” an NFC scout said.

What could the Falcons get in return? One league exec says a conditional second-round pick — which could turn into a first-rounder based on playing time — seems like a sweet spot for Ridley. That would allow the team to cover itself if he can’t play a full season. The Patriots, Saints and Dolphins are among receiver-needy teams that could covet a top pass-catcher like Ridley.

Seattle QB Russell Wilson will wear a new jersey in 2022

What’s funny is Seattle and Wilson might be in a better place after this 7-10 season than last year’s 12-4 campaign. Seahawks coaches and Wilson had positive conversations about the offense throughout the season, and Wilson likes offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Whispers of discord aren’t as prevalent right now as they once were.

But it’s no secret that Wilson wants to quarterback a team in contention, or at least a team willing to make the necessary moves to get there. And as one team source says, Carroll and Wilson, though friendly, have philosophical differences on how to build a team and attack a defense. Carroll’s method is tried and true, focused on a steady running game. Wilson, at least in the past, has wanted to open things up. Something might have to give if Wilson forces the issue this offseason.

“I don’t think they are as high on him as they let on,” an AFC exec said. “You’ve got to remember they’ve looked into trading him multiple times now. You don’t do that with a top guy unless you’re comfortable with it.”

The Saints were on Wilson’s original list of preferred destinations should the Seahawks try to trade him — he has a no-trade clause — and it would surprise if New Orleans didn’t at least discuss the pros and cons of such a move. Jameis Winston, who went 5-2 as a Saints starter, also will be in the mix for them. The other preferred teams (Cowboys, Raiders and Bears) seem set at quarterback, barring a surprise like Seattle taking over Justin Fields’ contract from the Bears.

But Wilson can always expand that list, too. The Giants are loaded with two top-10 picks to dangle, for example, and they have the market that might attract Wilson.

Steelers will draft Ben Roethlisberger’s eventual QB successor

The prevailing theme league-wide is that the Steelers value draft picks too much to relinquish several first-rounders for the right to pay a big-name quarterback $35-40 million per year.

To be sure, expect Pittsburgh to exhaust all QB options, from veterans to in-house candidates (Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins) to the draft. A free-agent option such as Jameis Winston could also be a cost-effective alternative to the bigger trade targets. And with several evaluators pegging this as the weakest QB draft class since 2013 (the EJ Manuel/Geno Smith/Mike Glennon draft), perhaps a top passer will be available for Pittsburgh at No. 20 overall.

“They’ve got [Pitt’s] Kenny Pickett in their own building,” said an AFC exec, referencing the Steelers-Pitt split practice facility. “They have intimate knowledge of him, so if they believe he’s got a chance to be great, expect them to look awfully hard there.”

A major coaching name — Pete Carroll, Sean Payton or Sean McVay — will leave for TV

As I prepared for the coaching carousel this offseason, several well-informed people brought up Payton or Carroll becoming television stars sooner than later. Nothing was founded, but the chatter was prevalent enough to become a prediction in the eyes of some evaluators.

From the traditional networks to new players such as Amazon, the salaries are mushrooming.

“Not sure I see Payton walking away from coaching — he loves it too much — but there’s definitely some buzz there that maybe he’s being courted on that side,” an NFL coordinator said. “Maybe he goes and does that and returns one day to coach the Cowboys or something.”

Carroll’s sunny disposition would be perfect for TV, and he turns 71 in September. He doesn’t appear ready to give up coaching, but a cushy spot on-air could be waiting for him.

McVay is half Carroll’s age (35), but several execs have made the Jon Gruden comparison with his career path (minus the email scandal, obviously).

“I think he’s trying to get that Super Bowl ring quickly so then he can have options. … If he wants to do TV for a while, he’d be great at it and can always go back and coach any team he wants after that,” an NFC exec said.

Denver will break through with its first playoff berth since 2015, with a star QB to be named later

Projecting the Broncos’ quarterback next year is difficult because there’s still no hard evidence the Packers will trade Aaron Rodgers, and Deshaun Watson’s lawsuits are not resolved. (We discussed Wilson above, but going to the Broncos and making the playoffs is the kind of legacy play for him that we could get behind.)

But here’s what to keep in mind with Denver’s roster strength: The Broncos had a winning record late in the season with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. No knock on Bridgewater, but he’s considered a backend No. 1 at this point. Upgrade the passer, coupled with another strong draft from GM George Paton, and the Broncos are galloping to progress.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will stay in Green Bay

Maybe some execs just can’t accept reality and wrap their heads about a nonsensical choice. But the fact is, Rodgers has it really good in Green Bay, where he’s cooking up Super Bowl vibes with coach Matt LaFleur. And GM Brian Gutekunst is slowly bridging the relational gap with his QB.

“Why would you leave?” an NFC exec said. “He has everything he needs. He had beef with the front office, but the front office got him a great roster. I still don’t understand it.”

Money talks, and Rodgers’ $46 million cap hit in 2022 suggests the team is ready to move on. But a lot can happen from now until March.

Browns will look to trade QB Baker Mayfield

The Mayfield-Kevin Stefanski relationship seems salvageable, and the franchise shouldn’t be eager to dump a quarterback with winning experience after two decades of futility in that spot.

“But at the end of the day, it’s not a great fit. He’d be best in a shotgun, up-tempo offense like they have in Arizona,” an NFC exec said. “The Browns will get rid of the only good quarterback they’ve had in years and fall into the same traps of the past.”

In this scenario, Mayfield would be looking for support. If the Seahawks did move on from Wilson, I wonder if the Browns would get involved. Seattle exec Alonzo Highsmith was on the Browns’ staff that drafted Mayfield, and that offense — though not like Arizona’s unit — could at least support him with a good running game while unlocking some of the up-tempo/shotgun stuff he might like.

2022 DRAFT

In recent years, there has been an irresistible pull that drags QBs up the draft into the top of the first round (see TREY LANCE among others).  This draft may not have any who are “worthy” but as we saw with our last Mock from Ryan Wilson, that pull is underway, at least from draft gurus.  Let’s see what’s up with Mel Kiper, Jr. of ESPN.com (answer – none in top 10 – but 11,18 and 20):

I didn’t project any trades in this Round 1 mock; let’s wait until we get closer to free agency to determine what teams really need. This is just an exercise to show everyone what I’m thinking right now, based on my prospect rankings and what I’m hearing from execs, scouts and coaches in the league, who are doing a lot of prep to get ready for the NFL combine in March.

The good thing about the 2022 cycle is that there will be a combine this year. That was a crucial part of the pre-draft process that was lost to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. And as for the Senior Bowl, which begins practices on Feb. 1, it should be a doozy. Six of the top seven quarterbacks in the class are expected to compete — Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell, Carson Strong and Bailey Zappe — along with several other potential top-50 picks.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan

At this time last year, the Jags were starting a rebuild under a new coach and … they’re back at the same spot. Urban Meyer didn’t even last a full season. I wrote last January that this wasn’t going to be a quick fix, and they’re not much closer to contending, hence back-to-back No. 1 picks. I do think they have their quarterback, even though Trevor Lawrence had a mostly abysmal rookie season.

So if the Jaguars get first dibs on any prospect in this draft, I’d go with Hutchinson; I have him ranked slightly ahead of Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux. Hutchinson, who finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting, is a dominant and consistent pass-rusher who can put up double-digit sacks as a rookie. He’s a safe No. 1 pick. They can play him on the other side of Josh Allen, who is a really nice player. Now, there could be some talk about the Jags taking a left tackle here, but I’m not buying that over the value of having a truly great edge rusher. Yes, left tackle might be more of a “need,” but they should take the best prospect, not fill the biggest need.

2. Detroit Lions

Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon

The Lions finished with the same number of wins (three) as the Jaguars, but doesn’t it feel as if they’re in a much better position? Well, maybe not so fast. The defense allowed the second-most points in the league (27.5 per game), and the offense had major consistency issues, which led to coordinator Anthony Lynn’s firing. This is a roster that could use talent upgrades at several positions.

That’s why it’s a no-brainer to take Thibodeaux or Hutchinson here, whoever is still on the board. Thibodeaux, who was a No. 1 overall high school recruit, has elite upside. His get-off at the snap is lightning-quick, and though he’s still developing secondary pass-rush moves, he doesn’t need them when he can blow by offensive tackles before they’re out of their stance. Thibodeaux had half as many sacks (seven) as Hutchinson this season, but he had the second-best pressure rate in the country (17.8%). Charles Harris, who led Detroit with 7.5 sacks this season, is a free agent, which makes this even more of a problem position.

3. Houston Texans

Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

Houston just fired coach David Culley after one season, and studying the roster he had and the numbers they put up on both sides of the ball, it’s a wonder how this team won four games.

The bright spot, of course, was the improvement of rookie third-round pick Davis Mills, who played his way into potentially being the opening-day starting quarterback in 2022, but the Texans have holes all over their roster. I think they’d take Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux here if either fell out of the top two, but Neal could be a 15-year starter at tackle or guard; he played both at Alabama before settling in at left tackle. Houston has Laremy Tunsil at that spot, but a thumb injury forced him out of 12 games this season. General manager Nick Caserio & Co. could take Neal and figure out his best position later, not unlike what the Lions did with Penei Sewell in the 2021 draft.

4. New York Jets

Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

The Jets had big defensive issues in Robert Saleh’s first season as coach, from the front seven to the secondary. They didn’t get after quarterbacks, and they couldn’t cover pass-catchers, which is a recipe for another top-five draft pick. Hamilton would fill a void at safety, especially if Marcus Maye leaves in free agency. Six-foot-4, 220-pound Hamilton has rare traits for his size, and he can play in the box or as a center fielder (he had eight career interceptions for the Fighting Irish). He was one of the most versatile defenders in college football for the past three seasons. Hamilton played in only seven games in 2021 because of a knee injury, but I’m told he’ll be ready to work out at the NFL combine in March. The Jets also pick at No. 10, and they could get help on offense there.

5. New York Giants

Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State

There has been a lot of recent buzz around Ekwonu, whose stock is rising. He dominated at left tackle for the Wolfpack this season after playing some guard earlier in his career. Based on the 2021 tape, there’s not much separating Ekwonu from Evan Neal, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Ekwonu was the top tackle off the board in April. He has All-Pro potential as a run-blocker and as a pass-blocker.

For the Giants — who haven’t yet replaced coach Joe Judge or general manager Dave Gettleman — this would be top-five tackles in two of the past three drafts, but even though Andrew Thomas played better this season, the right tackle spot is far from settled. They just have to get better up front, and taking Ekwonu is a step toward that. Like the Jets, they have two top-10 picks, and they could go offense with the No. 7 selection.

6. Carolina Panthers

Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

This is an easy call based on Carolina’s biggest weakness: It has to get a better left tackle. The Panthers ranked last in the league in yards per play (4.6) and 28th in sacks allowed (52). They went into the season with journeyman Cameron Erving manning the spot and finished with Dennis Daley filling in. Taylor Moton is a really solid right tackle, but they can upgrade the left side with this pick.

Cross took a big leap in 2021, allowing just a single sack while playing in a pass-happy Mike Leach offense. He can be a big-time NFL left tackle. This isn’t a reach pick. The Panthers need to hit here because they don’t have second- or third-round picks due to trades for quarterback Sam Darnold and cornerback CJ Henderson. This is a massive draft for coach Matt Rhule, who fired his offensive coordinator and might have to make the playoffs in 2022 to keep his job.

7. New York Giants (via CHI)

David Ojabo, OLB, Michigan

It’s always tough to project for teams that haven’t hired new general managers, so here’s my thinking for this pick, which comes from the Bears in the Justin Fields trade up last year: The Giants have some solid options on defense, but it’s fair to say they underperformed as a unit in 2021. The best way to get better as a whole? Pressure the quarterback, which helps every level of the defense. Rookie second-round pick Azeez Ojulari had a nice season, leading the team with eight sacks, but they don’t have another top-tier edge rusher on the other side.

Ojabo can help the pass rush immediately. He had an incredibly impressive season, racking up 11 sacks and five forced fumbles while playing opposite my projected No. 1 pick, Aidan Hutchinson. He doesn’t have Hutchinson’s all-around game — he has to get better against the run — but as a pure pass-rusher, he has a very high ceiling. With these two top-seven selections, New York can get high-end starters on both sides of the ball.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

This was one of the toughest calls of the entire mock. I thought hard about a quarterback. My buddy Chris Mortensen, though, says the Falcons are committed to Matt Ryan for 2022, which means this might be too high to take a QB who’s not going to play right away. This is not a class full of surefire starting QBs. If David Ojabo was still on the board, I probably would have gone with him because the Falcons finished last in the league in sacks (18) this season. But there’s a little bit of a drop-off in the edge-rush tiers, and my next guy doesn’t have a top-10 grade.

So how about a cornerback to play on the other side of rising star A.J. Terrell? Stingley looked like a potential No. 1 pick when he was dominating as a true freshman on LSU’s national title team in 2019, but he was inconsistent in 2020 and then played just three games this season because of a foot injury. A team is going to have to take a little bit of a leap of faith with Stingley because he hasn’t played great for two seasons. The draft is all about upside, though, and he has the potential to be a superstar. I’m hoping he can work out at the combine to ease some concerns.

9. Denver Broncos

Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia

The Broncos need a quarterback, of course, but the feeling I get is that they’re more likely to try to add a veteran in either the trade or free-agent market. They have a solid roster, and a veteran could help them win right away. This could change as we get closer to the draft — and they hire a coach — but I’m going to stay away from quarterback here for now.

Denver could be a great spot for the draft’s best off-ball linebacker, Dean, who was the leader of the spectacular Georgia defense. He makes tackle after tackle and can run sideline to sideline to make plays, and he has three-down potential because of his ability to cover tight ends and running backs. He’ll also help as a blitzer — he had six sacks in 2021. The Broncos have the Rams’ second- and third-round picks from the Von Miller trade, so general manager George Paton has a real chance to get this team back to the playoffs if he can nail a few early selections, as he did with Pat Surtain II and Javonte Williams last year.

10. New York Jets (via SEA)

Drake London, WR, USC

Quarterback Zach Wilson had a rough rookie season, as the Jets finished near the bottom in most offensive statistics. So if I’m giving them defensive help with the No. 4 pick, let’s give Wilson a target here, because his best pass-catchers in 2021 are all better out of the slot. Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder and Braxton Berrios are good players, but they’re never going to be down-the-field aerial threats.

London — who is 6-foot-5 and also played on the USC basketball team — has a chance to be a special outside receiver. He caught 88 passes for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns in eight games this season. His record-breaking year ended in late October because of a fractured right ankle, but he is expected to be ready for the 2022 season. He can be Wilson’s top target, giving the Jets a huge red zone threat. The Jets, by the way, also have an extra second-round pick from the Sam Darnold trade, and they could address the offensive line on Day 2 of the draft.

11. Washington Football Team

Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

Time for the first quarterback off the board. You might be surprised that it’s Willis, but you really shouldn’t be. He was in the QB1 mix all fall before he faded a little bit in the last stretch of the regular season. The more tape I watch of his past two seasons and the more I talk to evaluators in the league, the more I like him. Put simply, Willis is the most talented quarterback in this class. He didn’t always get to show that at Liberty, which didn’t have much NFL talent around him. (He was sacked an astounding 51 times in 2021.) This is a dual-threat signal-caller — he rushed for 1,822 yards and 27 touchdowns over the past two seasons — with a powerful arm. I’m really excited to see him compete against the other top QBs in the Senior Bowl in a couple weeks.

Like Denver, Washington could be in the veteran QB market, but I like the fit with Willis. Washington can’t go into the season with Taylor Heinicke as the starter.

12. Minnesota Vikings

Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

Since 2013, the Vikings have drafted four cornerbacks in Round 1 … and not a single one of them is still on their roster. Coach Mike Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman are out, and the new regime will inherit a good, not great, roster with a couple significant voids, particularly at corner. Veteran Patrick Peterson was signed to a one-year deal last offseason, so he’s a free agent, and I’m not sold that Cameron Dantzler is a quality starter.

They should jump at the chance to take Gardner, a lockdown corner who presented problems for opposing offensive coordinators in 2021. He was targeted just 31 times as the nearest defender in coverage, and he allowed only eight catches for 60 yards. With Kirk Cousins not locked in long-term, I thought about a quarterback here, but Gardner is too good to pass up for a team in glaring need.

13. Cleveland Browns

Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

This was a pretty easy pick for me, because the Browns should take the best receiver left on the board. If they really are committed to Baker Mayfield for 2022 (and beyond), they should get their quarterback some help, because this is now two straight seasons in which they’ve trotted out a subpar receiving corps for the second half of the season.

Wilson, who caught 70 passes for 1,058 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2021, can play outside or in the slot. He’s a great route runner who can also run away from defensive backs after the catch. And the Buckeyes star doesn’t have to go too far if Cleveland takes him.

14. Baltimore Ravens

Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa

Injuries decimated the Baltimore roster in 2021, but center Bradley Bozeman had a solid season. The problem? He’s now a free agent and could get more money on the open market. The Ravens could turn to the draft for his replacement, and if Linderbaum is on the board at No. 14, they would upgrade. Linderbaum is pro-ready right now — he already has great technique and is already a great run and pass blocker. This one makes a ton of sense.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA)

Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah

This is the first of three Eagles picks in the next five, this one coming from the Dolphins in last March’s order-busting trade. And I know that some folks are going to connect Philly with a quarterback, but I’m not buying that; Jalen Hurts earned the 2022 job by his play down the stretch, even if he didn’t have a great playoff game. This team needs more talent on defense, so that’s where I’m going with the first two of these picks.

I had to dive deep back into my research to find the last time the Eagles took a linebacker in Round 1, going all the way back to Jerry Robinson in 1979. I was 18 years old at the time of that draft. This is both a need and value pick, as Lloyd is coming off a tremendous season. I’ve compared him to Tampa Bay’s Devin White — he’s an off-ball linebacker with speed, versatility, range and run-and-hit ability. He had eight sacks and four picks last season. This would be a major boost to the Philly D.

16. Philadelphia Eagles (via IND)

Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State

The Eagles finished the regular season with wins in six of their final eight games powered by their running game, but again, this defense showed several holes. One of those was the pass rush — they finished 31st in the league in sacks with just 29, 11 of those coming from the tackle duo of Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox. I see edge rusher as a priority, even if 2017 first-rounder Derek Barnett, a free agent this offseason, returns to the team. He has never quite put together a consistent season, and he had just two sacks in 2021. So let’s use the pick from the Carson Wentz trade on a rising pass-rusher.

Ebiketie, a transfer from Temple, is coming off a stellar season for the Nittany Lions. He had 9.5 sacks, 19 total tackles for loss and two forced fumbles. He has long arms and is explosive at the snap, and he’s strong enough to set the edge in the run game. I’m a big fan.

17. Los Angeles Chargers

Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

The Chargers again struggled against the run in 2021, an issue that has plagued them for years. Just go back to their 2018 divisional-round playoff game against the Patriots, when they were dominated up front. They allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season, which ranked 28th in the NFL. With Linval Joseph hitting free agency, there is a massive hole in the middle of their defensive line.

Who better to fill that than the 6-foot-6, 340-pound Davis? He’d make the entire defense better because he eats up blocks and allows linebackers to roam free. He also can play on three downs; he’s not just a plugger. He showed on his sack in the national title game that he has some pass-rush ability, which is scary for a man of his size. Davis won’t be a fit for every team, but the teams that run a 3-4 defense will eye him in this range.

18. New Orleans Saints

Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

The Saints won four of five games to end the season and almost snuck into the playoffs, but their offense was subpar after Jameis Winston tore his ACL in late October. If Winston goes elsewhere in free agency, Sean Payton is going to want a new quarterback to groom. Taysom Hill, who turns 32 before the start of the 2022 season, hasn’t shown enough to be considered their QB of the present nor future.

That’s why I see Pickett, who’s coming off an efficient 42-touchdown, seven-interception season, as the perfect fit for New Orleans. He took a huge leap in 2021, showing off pinpoint accuracy to every area of the field. He started 49 games in college, so he can play right away for a team that wants to compete for the playoffs. The biggest question I’ve heard from people in the NFL is one that you might laugh at: hand size. Pickett has small hands — we’ll find out the exact size at the Senior Bowl soon — and that matters to the teams doing the drafting. If he can play his home games in a dome in New Orleans, that’s a plus.

19. Philadelphia Eagles

Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

Let’s finish out the Eagles’ picks with another wide receiver, which would make back-to-back-to-back drafts that Philly went wideout in Round 1. This is still an issue, though. DeVonta Smith had a good rookie season and looks to be the clear No. 1, but 2020 first-rounder Jalen Reagor underwhelmed and might never be more than a decent third option. Going back to the 2019 draft, the Eagles took J.J. Arcega-Whiteside in Round 2, but he has just 16 catches over three seasons. Jalen Hurts has to get some more help.

Olave was a touchdown machine at Ohio State — he had 35 in four seasons — and he’s one of the best deep threats in this class. At 6-foot-1, he can play inside or outside. He’s a player who looks better and better when you watch all of his snaps in a game, because even if he didn’t catch 10 passes, he was always open.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss

Like the Saints, the Steelers could immediately contend if they can figure out their quarterback position this offseason. Ben Roethlisberger appears likely to retire. I don’t see backups Mason Rudolph or Dwayne Haskins as NFL starters. They do have a strong core on both sides of the ball, though. If they acquire a veteran signal-caller via free agency or in a trade, this could be a spot to target a linemen to help a below-average O-line, but let’s assume for now that they go into the draft without adding one.

Corral fits the mentality of what Mike Tomlin wants from his team. He’s tough. He took a beating in multiple games in 2021, even running 30 times for 195 yards in a win over Tennessee. Oh, and he’s a stellar passer, too, with touch, accuracy and arm strength. At 6-foot, he’s not the biggest quarterback, but he threw 20 touchdown passes and just five picks this season. Corral sprained his ankle in the Rebels’ bowl game but should be fine to work out at the combine. Because he hasn’t yet graduated from school, he’s the only one of the top QBs who won’t be at the Senior Bowl, but he’ll get his chance to show his skill set in front of scouts later.

21. New England Patriots

Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

The Patriots had a solid 2021 draft, with quarterback Mac Jones and defensive tackle Christian Barmore turning into early starters and Day 3 pick Rhamondre Stevenson showing value in a running back rotation. What stuck out to me as I watched the Patriots, though, was their lack of playmakers in the passing game. Their top two receivers were former undrafted free agents (Jacobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne), and their tight ends didn’t beat defenders after the catch (when they got open). N’Keal Henry hasn’t developed like they had hoped. If they can get a deep threat for Jones here, they should be thrilled.

Williams, an Ohio State transfer with blazing speed, had a fantastic season for the Crimson Tide, catching 79 passes for 1,572 yards and 15 touchdowns. He would likely be in the top-10 range if he didn’t tear his ACL in the national title game, which means he might not be ready for training camp. Still, I don’t think he’s going to fall too far, because he’s a true No. 1 wideout when he’s healthy. This is good value for New England.

22. Las Vegas Raiders

Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson

This is another tough pick to figure out, with general manager Mike Mayock out and the Raiders now searching for someone to run their football operations. The Las Vegas roster has some issues, particularly along the right side of its offensive line and in the secondary, so I went with the top cornerback left on my board. Fifth-round pick Nate Hobbs was a nice find in last year’s draft, but this defense could use Booth, a 6-foot press-coverage corner who allowed only one completion of more than 20 yards in 2021. He was extremely consistent over the past two seasons, locking down receivers. The Raiders ranked 27th in QBR allowed (51.4) this season; taking Booth would address a weakness.

23. Arizona Cardinals

George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue

After a 10-2 start, the Cardinals lost five of their final six games and crashed out in the playoffs, a disappointing finish for a team that once looked like a Super Bowl contender. And I think you can point to J.J. Watt’s shoulder injury in late October as a big reason why the defense took a step back down the stretch. Watt is still signed for another season, but his injury history means that Arizona needs to think about a replacement. That’s Karlaftis, a powerful 275-pound end who might be better in a 3-4 defense. He had only 4.5 sacks in 2021, but his pressure numbers were elite, even if he didn’t always get home to the quarterback. He’s really good against the run, too.

24 Dallas Cowboys

Travon Walker, DE, Georgia

Dallas had a disappointing playoff exit, but it still has a lot of young talent, led by do-it-all rookie linebacker Micah Parsons. The organization, however, has looming decisions on several free agents, including Randy Gregory, Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup, Connor Williams, Leighton Vander Esch and Jayron Kearse. That means we’re going to know in March who the Cowboys have prioritized as guys to bring back and which positions will actually be needs by the time the draft rolls around in late April. Every team covets edge rushers, though.

Walker, whom McShay recently called “one of the most underrated prospects in the class,” stands out every time I watch the loaded Georgia defense.

25. Cincinnati Bengals

Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

There’s no way the Bengals would take back their choice of wideout Ja’Marr Chase over offensive tackle Penei Sewell in last year’s draft, but you saw this season why so many of us thought they would take Sewell. Joe Burrow was sacked 55 times — third-most in the league — and the offense averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which ranked 26th. They ranked 30th in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric. This is a below-average offensive line. Luckily for the Bengals, this is a deep tackle class at the top.

The 6-foot-7 Penning towered over defenders at the FCS level, and he was rarely challenged. He makes things look easy. Yes, it’s a big leap to the NFL, but I think he has the traits to be an early starter. If Cincinnati wants to keep 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams on the left side, Penning could easily slot in at right tackle, where free-agent-to-be Riley Reiff played for most of 2021.

26. Miami Dolphins (via SF)

Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

Miami has used significant assets to build its offense around quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but not every move has worked out, particularly along the offensive line. They’ve used three top-50 picks on the O-line in the past two drafts, and none of the three — Austin Jackson, Liam Eichenberg and Robert Hunt — is a surefire above-average starter. With Trevor Penning off the board in the previous pick, though, I don’t have another lineman with a Round 1 grade. So let’s address another spot to help Tagovailoa with this pick, which comes from the 49ers’ trade up in last year’s draft.

Dotson is a speedster who had 91 catches for 1,182 yards and 12 scores in 2021. Jaylen Waddle caught 104 passes as a rookie, but the best way to help Tagovailoa is to get him another pass-catcher who can make plays after the catch. Dotson is explosive with the ball in his hands and has the versatility to line up all over the field.

27. Buffalo Bills

Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

Buffalo doesn’t have many holes on its roster, but Tre’Davious White’s season-ending knee injury in November put the focus on its cornerback depth. This late in the first round, teams are hoping for rookie starters, but they’ll also take high-upside prospects who could grow into starters in time. McDuffie can cover wideouts outside or from in the slot, so the versatility is a plus. He was very good in man coverage for the Huskies. I also thought about a guard here, and the Bills’ running backs were disappointing again in 2021, even though Devin Singletary had a couple of good games to end the season. This is a little too high for a back on my board, but we could see risers after the combine, so keep an eye out.

28. Detroit Lions (via LAR)

Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina

I’m not sold on Jared Goff being Detroit’s guy past 2022, so why not take a quarterback flier here with the pick it got from the trade with the Rams? By taking Howell in Round 1, the Lions would get his fifth-year option, which means they could hand over the reins in 2023. Yes, they have a lot of needs, but if they think they can get their future starting signal-caller, they should pounce.

Howell is a tricky evaluation, and he could definitely drop to Round 2. He looked like a potential top-10 pick after his sophomore season in 2020. At the beginning of the 2021 season, though, he really struggled, and he put a lot of bad tape out there while throwing to a completely new set of pass-catchers. He settled back in and improved down the stretch, finishing with 24 touchdown passes and nine picks, plus 11 rushing scores. He throws a beautiful deep ball and has tremendous touch on passes.

29. Kansas City Chiefs

Cameron Thomas, DE, San Diego State

The Chiefs fixed their offensive line last offseason, but they still have issues on the other side of the ball. They ranked 30th in the NFL in yards per play allowed (5.9) and 31st in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.8) this season. They also had just 31 sacks, which ranked 29th. This is a defensive line that could use an infusion of young talent.

I like Thomas a lot because of his versatility — he lined up at both tackle and end for the Aztecs and created havoc at both spots. He had 11.5 sacks and a whopping 27 total tackles for loss in 2021. He’s powerful in the run game and has some bend as a pass-rusher. He’d be a menace for offensive tackles if he lined up next to Chris Jones.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DeMarvin Leal, DL, Texas A&M

Like the Cowboys, the Bucs have several free agents hitting the open market this offseason, including center Ryan Jensen, wide receiver Chris Godwin, cornerback Carlton Davis and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. So while time will tell which players they bring back, this pick is about a like-for-like replacement for Ndamukong Suh, who turned 35 earlier this month and has been playing on one-year contracts.

The 290-pound Leal could play defensive end in a 3-4 scheme or 3-technique tackle in a 4-3. He has a powerful lower half and strong hands. He had 8.5 sacks for the Aggies in 2021, showing improvement on his ability to take down quarterbacks.

31. Tennessee Titans

Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington

I really liked Caleb Farley in the 2021 class, but a torn ACL ended his season after just two games, and that was after a back injury dropped him to the Titans in Round 1. That injury history is a little scary, which is why the Titans could go with back-to-back first-round corners.

Like his college teammate Trent McDuffie, Gordon has some scheme versatility and the ability to play in the slot as well as outside. He improved a lot in 2021, picking off two passes and breaking up seven throws. He can also tackle, and I think he’ll test well at the combine.

32. Green Bay Packers

Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State

Is Aaron Rodgers staying in Green Bay or not? That’s the ominous cloud hanging over the team’s offseason. Either way, I don’t see it letting superstar wideout Davante Adams leave in free agency, so let’s move to the other top need on offense. Robert Tonyan snagged 11 touchdowns in 2020, but he tore his ACL in October and is a free agent in the offseason. The Packers could bring him back on a short-term deal, or they could find a long-term solution with McBride, the draft’s best tight end. He caught 90 passes for 1,121 yards in 2021, and he’s also a good blocker.