Bill Vinovich gets his third Super Bowl.

And for the championship games, veteran Clete Blakeman, a former Super Bowl ref, gets the NFC Championship Game.  It’s the decision to put young Shawn Smith on his first championship game in the AFC that has conspiracy theorists on alert.  Bridget Reilly in the New York Post:

With Shawn Smith set to be an official at the AFC Championship Game, the odds appear to be in favor of the Chiefs and the Swifties beating the Ravens to advance to the Super Bowl.

From a business standpoint, that outcome is likely music to the NFL’s ears.

Since the assignment was given to Smith, who has a tendency to favor the team on the road, it has been pointed out that the NFL is opening itself up to Taylor Swift conspiracy theories.

“And it certainly doesn’t help with conspiracy theories that the NFL would like nothing more than to see new Chiefs #1 fan Taylor Swift and her legendary fan base of the Swifties in the Super Bowl and buying up all the Super Bowl merchandise,” NFL analyst Warren Sharp wrote on his website.

The Ravens are favored by 3 points for the game in Baltimore on Sunday afternoon.

However, according to Sharp’s data, the numbers change with Smith on the field.

The home team’s win rate drops from 55.9% to 40.8% and the home team goes from covering the spread 50.1% to 37% of the time.

The referee analyst for Sharp’s website also noted that the NFL could have chosen from eight different referees for the game.

The interest in the Chiefs, already one of the most popular teams in the sport, has grown exponentially since Swift made her first appearance at Arrowhead Stadium for the Chiefs-Bears game on Sept. 24 as she came to support boyfriend and Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce.

It brought a record-breaking viewership of 27 million on Oct. 1 for the Chiefs-Jets game at MetLife, which became the most-watched NFL game since the Chiefs bested the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.

Sunday’s AFC divisional round game — in which the Chiefs beat the Bills, 27-24 — earned an eye-popping average of 50 million viewers.

Kelce’s jersey sales also hit a sky-high peak across 24 hours after Swift’s debut at the Bears game, clocking a 400 percent increase. His number 87 jersey also quickly became a top-five purchased one in the league.

Additionally, Kelce has seen his social media reach grow, gaining 300,000-plus followers.

The league is perhaps hoping to have the Chiefs in the Super Bowl to break these numbers and more in what would be Patrick Mahomes’ third Super Bowl in his six years with Kansas City.

For some fans, this would be the worst outcome, as many have expressed their dislike for the singer’s effect on the game broadcasts and more.

We would point out the “Smith’s” road-home statistics are actually produced by his entire crew.  In the championship game, two of the other six officials he is used to working with are on board, but four are from other crews.

2023 crew

R         Shawn Smith

U         Roy Ellison                  Hill

DJ       Jerod Phillips               Martin

LJ        Jeff Seeman               Smith

FJ        Nate Jones                  Cheffers

SJ        Anthony Jeffries         Rogers

BJ        Dino Paganelli             Smith

We note, that including Smith, five of the seven officials are African-American.

They NFL was wise not to assign Smith to the NFC game, because he is from Michigan and his “road bias” would really be questioned with the Lions in that game.

KCKingdom.com points this out about Smith’s history with the Chiefs:

Smith has been with the NFL since 2015, spending a few seasons as an umpire before becoming a lead referee. Unlike officials such as Carl Cheffers, there’s no embarrassing history between Smith and the Chiefs.

He was the lead referee in the Chiefs’ loss to the Eagles earlier this season, though it’s worth noting he was also refereeing when the Chiefs stunningly lost to the Colts in Week 3 of last season.

CHICAGO

Adam Jahns of The Athletic on who new OC Shane Waldron will have as his QB:

After 10 seasons in Seattle, Russell Wilson was gone. In a blockbuster trade, the Seahawks traded their quarterback to the Denver Broncos on March 16, 2022.

The NFL landscape, particularly in the NFC, changed immediately.

And so did Shane Waldron’s job as the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator.

Seattle had hired Waldron in part because Wilson wanted him to be his play caller. Wilson took an active role in the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator search in 2021. He liked that Waldron knew the Sean McVay offense that had taken control of the NFC West.

But instead of building on what was established with Wilson after their first season together, Waldron had a new challenge: a quarterback competition between Geno Smith and Drew Lock to run during training camp and the preseason.

“I think really just the overall command of the position — who gives us the best chance to win games when it comes to the fall,” Waldron said in June 2022.

It became Smith, who had gone from being the 39th pick in the 2013 draft by the New York Jets to bust to veteran journeyman. He beat out Lock, the 42nd pick by the Broncos who was part of the Wilson trade.

Smith’s last season as a starter was the 2014 season. He had a 77.5 passer rating that season. And he had a 12-19 record in the games he started over his first five seasons.

“He’s earned it,” Seahawks coach Pete Carroll told reporters at that time. “He’s won the job.”

What came next surprised everyone. Smith not only won games but earned respect across the league by playing like one of the NFL’s best QBs. He led the NFL in completion percentage (69.8) that season and set career highs in passing yards (4,282) and touchdown passes (30). He ranked fifth in passer rating and seventh in QBR. And he was voted to his first Pro Bowl.

Plenty to like about the Bears’ offensive coordinator search that led them to Shane Waldron

Perceptions changed around the league. In the 2023 edition of Mike Sando’s annual QB tiers analysis — which is based on input from general managers, executives and coaches from across the league — Smith went from being the only Tier 5 quarterback from the 2021 season to solidly in Tier 3 at No. 20. Smith was rated ahead of Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields, too. Smith’s jump was the largest made in last year’s analysis and was the third-largest single-year leap in the history of Sando’s tiers project.

“Nobody would have guessed he would be a Pro Bowl quarterback last year,” a general manager told Sando last year. “Some guys make a jump. He has solidified as a legitimate starter that you can win some games with.”

Smith didn’t repeat his success this season. Similar to Fields’ struggles, there are plenty of reasons for the decline. The Seahawks had injuries and problems on their offensive line. And Waldron’s play calling was questioned.

But if you’re ranking the reasons the Bears hired Waldron to be their next offensive coordinator after firing Luke Getsy, Waldron’s place in Smith’s career revival must be No. 1.

So what does that mean for Fields, if anything?

That depends on what you want to happen. If you prefer that Fields return for the 2024 season, then Waldron’s history with Smith and a scheme similar to Getsy’s can be used as reasons for it.

If you prefer that the Bears draft a quarterback, then Waldron’s apparent preference for quick throws/reads and on-time play can be cited as reasons to move on with USC’s Caleb Willams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye.

Waldron’s arrival is too down the middle to lean one way or the other. General manager Ryan Poles likely wants it that way. He remains in the most powerful position of any GM this offseason. Hiring Kliff Kingsbury would have been different because of the obvious connections to Williams at USC. The same can be said about Greg Roman and his QB run game, albeit for the other argument.

It’s too early to say how different the Bears offense will be with Waldron because no one can say for sure who the quarterback will be.

For Waldron, the next step after filling out his staff will be taking an active role in evaluating Fields’ two seasons with Getsy and then the rookies. The Bears thoroughly scouted the quarterback class during this season. There will be plenty for Waldron to familiarize himself with, from Williams to Maye to LSU’s Jayden Daniels to Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy to Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.

If you’re Poles and coach Matt Eberflus, you like that Waldron worked with Carroll, who prioritized ball security and having a strong run game. You like that Waldron broke into the NFL with the New England Patriots and Bill Belichick. And you like that he has three years of scheme-building and play-calling experience to use as a reference point when evaluating all the quarterbacks.

Will Fields be able to do what Smith did in the past two seasons? Or is Waldron looking for something different altogether?

The Bears sought an offensive coordinator who is innovative and adaptable. Waldron demonstrated that going from Wilson to Smith. But he also was on the ground level for what McVay built in Los Angeles for the Rams starting in 2017. It started with changing quarterback Jared Goff’s career trajectory after a shaky first year under former coach Jeff Fisher in 2016.

Waldron followed McVay from Washington and was the Rams’ tight ends coach in his first season in Los Angeles. Waldron became the Rams’ passing game coordinator the following year in 2018. That season remains Goff’s best individual year statistically with career highs in passing yards, touchdown passes, passer rating and QBR. The Bears and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio found ways to slow down McVay’s offense on a chilly night in Chicago, but the Rams still reached the Super Bowl that season.

Waldron knows where things started to sour between McVay and Goff, the first pick in the 2016 draft, and how that ultimately led to Goff’s departure and Matthew Stafford’s arrival in Los Angeles.

Waldron has a good idea of what worked well for Kirk Cousins in 2016 as he became a Pro Bowl quarterback for the first time in Washington with McVay calling plays for him. Waldron was McVay’s offensive quality control coach that season.

And Waldron knows what worked well for Wilson in his 10th season in Seattle and then Smith in his ninth after time spent with the Jets, Giants and Chargers. Waldron’s input on the Bears’ quarterback decision will become a factor soon enough.

“I appreciate this opportunity given to me by coach Eberflus and Ryan Poles,” Waldron said in a statement. “We can’t wait to get to work at a franchise with such a storied history and passionate fan base.”

DALLAS

Troy Aikman talked about the surprise ending of the Cowboys’ season.  Jon Machota of The Athletic:

Count Troy Aikman among the experts who thought the Dallas Cowboys were set up better than usual to make a deep playoff run. Aikman was so confident in this season’s team that he was planning to attend the NFC Championship Game this Sunday in Santa Clara, Calif., expecting a matchup between the No. 1 seed San Francisco 49ers and the No. 2 seed Cowboys.

He was correct about San Francisco taking care of business. However, Dallas suffered a stunning wild-card loss to the No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers. After falling behind 27-0 late in the first half, the Cowboys trailed by 32 early in the fourth quarter before falling 48-32.

“Pretty shocked,” the Pro Football Hall of Famer and former Cowboys three-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback said Tuesday. “I really liked this team all year long. I thought they were really talented. … It’s just the same old story, and I don’t mean that as a criticism. It’s just when I’m asked about the Cowboys as to why they have struggled, they’ve put together some really great regular seasons. They just have not, for whatever reasons, played their best football when the games matter most. That’s what you have to do. That’s the key to winning in the postseason and then getting to the Super Bowl. What the answer is to that, I’m not sure.”

Aikman, Monday Night Football’s color commentator, spoke with reporters Tuesday before kicking off an event at the George W. Bush Presidential Center to recognize the city of Dallas for being named the No. 1 Sports Business City by Sports Business Journal.

Despite a third consecutive 12-win season that included an NFC East title for the second time in three years, the Cowboys again fell short of their goals, increasing their streak to 28 seasons without a trip to the NFC Championship Game. In a league of parity, it makes little sense why the Cowboys haven’t been able to put together a single deep playoff run since Aikman was under center.

Is there a sense of entitlement?

“I don’t know about a sense of entitlement,” he responded. “I think that when you play for the Cowboys, every national show leads off with the Cowboys. And there’s a lot of perks to playing for the Dallas Cowboys. There’s a lot of benefits to playing for the Dallas Cowboys. So I think the challenge for the organization and for the head coach is to be able to still keep the players with their edge. And so I think that’s the challenge of this job.

“In a lot of ways, there’s so many other things that are happening within the organization, it’s easy to get caught up in it. There’s tours going around the building and there’s a lot of distractions, if you will, and I think it creates another layer that a head coach and a staff and players have to try to compartmentalize so that they can go and be the best football players they can be.”

How much is Cowboys owner Jerry Jones responsible for creating some of those distractions?

“I mean, he’s the boss,” Aikman said. “So whatever is done, it’s because he’s OK with it. It just is what it is. I mean, it’s been that way. It’s always been that way. And whether or not that ultimately keeps this team from doing what they hope to do, I don’t know. Does it just rear its head in January? I mean, why wasn’t it a problem during the regular season? So it’s a hard thing to kind of (wrap) your head around when you see the number of wins that they’ve had. And yet, so much disappointment in the postseason.”

In regards to Mike McCarthy returning for his fifth season as head coach, Aikman said he was not surprised. He has spoken highly of McCarthy throughout his time in Dallas.

“They had a really good year,” Aikman said. “The people who are followers of Dallas, they would point to what happened against San Francisco or what happened against Buffalo. Every team had those games, where they really struggled. San Francisco had those games. But the way that they were playing at the end of the year, they positioned themselves to be the No. 2 seed. I thought it was good.

“If you make a (head coaching) change, then you’re basically making a change for the same reason you made changes back a few years ago when you brought Mike in and you’re bringing in then somebody who you believe is going to get you over the top. Just like they felt Mike is that guy to do it. But you don’t know the answer to that until once again, you get back to January. So I think the continuity of it all, the year that Dak (Prescott) was able to have, it just seems to make the most sense for those guys to come back. Without a new contract, there’s obviously then some urgency on their part as well.”

Dak Prescott had an outstanding regular season, throwing an NFL-best 36 touchdown passes and reducing his interceptions from a league-high 15 in 12 games in 2022 to nine in 17 games in 2023. He also posted a career-high passer rating of 105.9 as he earned second-team All-Pro honors. But he didn’t play well against the Packers, bringing back memories of his playoff struggles against the 49ers a year ago.

He’s entering the final year of his contract. With Prescott having been the team’s starter for the last eight seasons and only having two playoff wins, Aikman was asked about Prescott’s struggles in big games becoming a pattern.

“I do know that we all draw on our past experiences,” Aikman said. “And when we don’t have great experiences, those then become hard to overcome. And I think that’s the challenge for Dak, because the question for him and really for the team isn’t so much what happens in the regular season now, it’s: How are they going to play? And how is he going to play once you get into the postseason? That makes for a long year when that’s the way it works.

“I’ve been there as well, as far as when the expectations are that high. But I still believe in Dak. I think that until you do it, there’s always those criticisms. … The pressure gets higher, for sure, as they go into this offseason and then next season, but it makes it hard.

“It makes it hard to come back and put themselves in a position to do it all over again. … Hopefully they have more opportunities ahead of them.”

PHILADELPHIA

And the other shoe drops as the Eagles jettison OC Brian Johnson.  Dianna Russini, Brooks Kubena and Larry Holder in The Athletic:

The Philadelphia Eagles will have new coordinators on both sides of the ball in 2024 with offensive coordinator Brian Johnson not returning next season, a league source said. This comes as a major shuffle for coach Nick Sirianni after firing defensive coordinator Sean Desai on Sunday.

All of this happened days after Sirianni was scheduled to meet with owner Jeffrey Lurie following the disastrous finish of what was once a promising season.

Significant staff changes were expected after Sirianni’s Eagles failed to follow through on a 10-1 start that unraveled into a 1-6 finish, including a 32-9 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Monday’s NFC wild-card game. Desai was relieved of his play-calling duties on Dec. 17 and replaced by senior defensive assistant Matt Patricia.

The Eagles ranked seventh in scoring this season averaging 25.5 points per game. That’s down from ranking second last year at 28.1 points per game. But Philadelphia struggled late in the season averaging only 18.9 points per game in its last seven contests.

Sirianni and general manager Howie Roseman called several coaches and agents last week to compile a list of candidates to present Lurie as part of a plan to overhaul the staff in a fourth year under Sirianni.

This overhaul comes nearly a year after another mass overhaul, but that one involved promotions. After last season ended, offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon landed head coaching jobs with the Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals.

What happened to Philly’s offense?

The conducive collaboration the Eagles’ offensive brain trust in 2023 kept insisting was possible will no longer come to fruition as it was once structured.

The Eagles failed to maintain the fullness of its offensive dominance after the departure of Steichen. Sirianni attempted to foster continuity by promoting Johnson from quarterbacks coach to offensive play caller. Although the offense excelled at times to begin the season, the system broke down toward the end of the season in a succession of offensive series that often appeared disjointed, predictable and ineffective in crucial situations.

The Eagles struggled to secure a true offensive identity and the system often appeared in conflict with itself. Johnson tried to empower quarterback Jalen Hurts by equipping the quarterback with a list of checks that he could use at the line of scrimmage. Sometimes this worked. Hurts checked to a game-changing deep pass to DeVonta Smith against the Kansas City Chiefs. Sometimes it failed. A.J. Brown said they’d improvised the damning play against the Seattle Seahawks in which Hurts threw a game-ending interception while trying to throw deep to Brown in double coverage.

The achievements and accolades offensive players still secured in 2023 make the system’s failures even more confounding. Brown logged the franchise’s second-most receiving yards in a season (1,456). D’Andre Swift rushed for a career-high 1,049 yards and was named to his first Pro Bowl. Hurts broke Cam Newton’s NFL record with 15 rushing touchdowns by a quarterback, often via the mostly unstoppable “Brotherly Shove.”

Still, the Eagles failed to score 20 points in five of their final seven games. Hurts struggled mightily against the blitz, and Sirianni, Johnson and the offensive staff did not appear to supply Hurts with sufficient answers against heavy rushes in predictable passing situations.

That the Eagles were incapable of fielding even a mediocre offense during the season’s catastrophic collapse was a severe indictment. — Brooks Kubena, Eagles beat writer

What’s next?

Sirianni, who did not call plays, often took the bullets for Johnson, saying variations of, “This is my offense.” Johnson kept saying variations of how they needed to find better answers and put the players in a better position to succeed. Even Hurts insisted publicly that they could still find solutions together.

“We plan on fixing everything that we’ve done and growing together,” Hurts said at his locker during the team’s clean-out day last week. “Coach Sirianni, Brian, everyone.”

Instead, Sirianni will be hiring his third offensive coordinator in three years. Johnson’s initial offensive success was enough to secure a head-coaching interview with the Atlanta Falcons. There’ll be enough interest for Johnson to continue as an offensive coordinator for another team, too.

As for the Eagles, Sirianni must now find the offensive coordinator who can bring the team’s wealth of talent together into the consistent dynamism they failed to field in 2023. — Kubena

ATLANTA

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com tries to figure out what might be going on between the Falcons and Bill Belichick:

Bill Belichick remains available, to any team that wants him. So far, only one team has interviewed him.

That could change.

Per a league source with knowledge of the situation, multiple teams are quietly considering a potential run at Belichick. At least one currently has a head-coaching vacancy. At least one currently does not.

Many in league circles believe Belichick is the frontrunner for the Falcons job. The Falcons regard the situation otherwise. As they continue to conduct interviews, they have no frontrunner, yet.

One reason for the delay in the crystallization of finalists is the new NFL rule that prohibits in-person interviews of assistant coaches under contract with other teams until after the completion of the divisional round. As a result, the team that hired former coach Arthur Smith on January 15, 2021 isn’t close to making a hire on January 21, 2024.

The Falcons have interviewed over a dozen candidates, in-person or virtually. Belichick has been interviewed twice.

One potential impediment to Belichick wanting the job continues to be the duties of CEO Rich McKay. Both the head coach and G.M. report to McKay, we’re told. While the team sees no problem with that arrangement if Belichick becomes the coach, Belichick might.

And this:

The lack of widespread interest in Belichick is surprising on the surface, given his incredible success and his lingering reputation for being an excellent coach when it comes to preparing a team and coaching it during a game. However, plenty of fans are ambivalent about the prospect of embracing a coach who hasn’t had much success since losing quarterback Tom Brady.

Belichick’s authority continues to be a question mark. In Atlanta, he’d ostensibly report to CEO Rich McKay. Belichick might not be interested in doing that.

Some also believe, as previously noted, that Belichick has little interest in coaching a team in a major media market. As one source explained it over the weekend, that comes from a desire to avoid the dynamic of reporters aggressively trying to develop #sources at any and all levels of the organization. The fewer the number of reporters covering a team, the less Belichick has to worry about reporters cozying up to people he otherwise needs to trust to zip it.

Still, beyond the Falcons, zip is the key word. It’s amazing to think that a coach like Belichick is available and only one team has interviewed him.

We’ll see if it changes. Five vacancies exist. And, in theory, more could still emerge.

Albert Breer of SI.com with more on the Belichick-McKay dynamic:

The relationship that could be key to Belichick landing (or not landing) in Atlanta this week is with Rich McKay. And while we’ll go further back than this in a second, it was a change made a year ago by owner Arthur Blank that set the stage for it. Last January, the Falcons team announced a restructure. McKay moved from president to CEO and was put in charge of the football side. Greg Beadles was named president to lead the business side.

McKay’s role expanded, too, to oversee Blank’s other sports properties. (He also owns the MLS’s Atlanta United.)

That setup, a year later, might need more adjusting, because it’s hard to see Belichick being comfortable with any sort of arrangement where he’s reporting to McKay. Mostly because, well, those two haven’t been on the same page over the years, with the former Patriot coach’s (often open) disdain for the NFL’s competition committee that McKay has long chaired.

You don’t have to look far to find Belichick’s comments on that group. He’s directed reports to the competition committee in the past, saying they think they “have all the answers.” In 2017, Belichick got specific on what he suspected was their effort to rid the game of kickoffs.

“We want more touchbacks, but is that really solving the problem here as it’s been presented by the competition committee? I think you know how I feel about it,” Belichick said. “We’ll see how smart some of that really is to address the problem that we think is being addressed. It seems like football, we have a pretty good game here. Been that way for a long time. The kicking game is a great part of our game.

“But we have a lot of people that feel like the game has to be changed, so we’ll have to see how all that turns out.”

McKay, of course, has been prominent among those “people” for years, and worked with Belichick confidants Thomas Dimitroff and Scott Pioli in Atlanta, which did little to slow the coach’s skepticism toward the intentions of McKay’s group.

So can Blank broker a setup that works for both guys? I think that well could determine whether he lands the greatest coach of all time.

Hard to believe that being on opposite sides of kickoff excitement vs. kickoff safety would be a dealbreaker.

SAN FRANCISCO

A nugget from Douglas Clawson of CBSSports.com:

The 49ers are a perfect 5-0 in Brock Purdy’s starts this year vs. the NFC playoff field, beating the Cowboys, Buccaneers, Eagles, Rams and Packers. A win vs. the Lions would mean a clean sweep and an exclamation point on San Francisco’s NFC title. Purdy can become the first QB (for any team) since Joe Montana in 1984 to sweep every playoff team in his conference, between the regular season and postseason.

– – –

Will WR DEEBO SAMUEL be able to play Sunday?  David Lombardi and Matt Barrow of The Athletic:

San Francisco 49ers receiver Deebo Samuel’s status for this weekend’s NFC Championship Game against the Detroit Lions remains uncertain, coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday. Samuel suffered a shoulder injury in his team 24-21 playoff win against the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night but the team said he does not have a fracture.

The 49ers said they hope to have a much firmer idea of Samuel’s potential availability for the NFC title game by midweek.

“It wasn’t broken, so that was a real good sign,” Shanahan said of Samuel’s shoulder. “But it’s still hurting too much for us to have a good idea of how it’s going to heal up this week. So we’ve just got to be patient, see how he feels on Wednesday. And based off of (whether or not) it’s improving, we’ll see if he has a chance for the game or not.”

The 49ers are currently formulating their offensive game plan. Wednesday is installation day during practice and Thursday features the heaviest practice of the week.

“If we know he’s not available, then it makes it easier from a game-planning standpoint,” Shanahan said. “But if there’s any chance, which I think we’ll have a better idea of Wednesday, obviously there’ll be things in (the game plan) for him.”

The 49ers were pleased with fill-in contributions from veteran receiver Chris Conley against the Packers. Conley delivered a key block on running back Christian McCaffrey’s 39-yard touchdown run before catching a 17-yard deep out from quarterback Brock Purdy on the game-winning drive.

“Conley — that’s why guys like him and Willie Snead are here,” Shanahan said.

Samuel left the NFC divisional round game twice before being ruled out with a shoulder injury to begin the third quarter. The shoulder injury occurred midway through the first quarter, and he was initially ruled questionable to return. At the start of halftime, he was seen without his jersey or shoulder pads and was soon ruled out for the rest of the game.

He first left during the first quarter after taking a hard hit to the head. He entered the blue medical tent and cleared concussion protocol before returning to the sideline.

Samuel’s day ended with two catches and 24 yards. He recorded 892 receiving yards and 225 rushing yards during the season, tallying 12 total touchdowns.

Losing Samuel mid-game added to 49ers’ frustrations

Obviously, not having Samuel in the receiver rotation is bad for the 49ers. They lost all three games he either missed or couldn’t complete due to a Week 6 shoulder injury. But losing him early in a game, as was the case Saturday, is worse. Shanahan said it led to all sorts of play-call challenges, including one in which Jauan Jennings ended up lining up in the backfield and getting a carry. (Result: a 1-yard loss).

More than that, Purdy could have used Samuel on a day in which the Packers were playing soft coverage and Purdy’s accuracy was off due to the rain and a wet football. The play calls likely would have been similar to Week 3’s when Purdy targeted Samuel 12 times against the New York Giants and Samuel finished with 129 receiving yards. — Matt Barrows, 49ers beat writer

Samuel has extra motivation to play the Lions

Samuel doesn’t need any extra motivation to play on Sunday. His team is in the NFC Championship for the third straight year, after all, and the two previous games have ended in heartbreak for him and the 49ers. But there’s an extra layer of sizzle to a 49ers-Lions matchup given that Lions safety C.J. Gardner Johnson, a former Eagles player, has been feuding with Samuel since the regular season.

“You better hope all that talk you be doing when we see you all, whatever (playoff) round it may be … because I can guard you,” Gardner-Johnson said during an Instagram Live session. “You can’t run routes. You’re a running back. You’re a running back. I ain’t gonna sit here and play with you, little boy. Just because you got a little bag, people give you a little clout, and then you ain’t nothing, bro.”

Samuel is in the midst of a long-running spat with Philadelphia defenders stemming from last year’s NFC Championship. That added some extra juice to the teams’ Dec. 3 meeting this season. A fired up Samuel finished with 138 total yards and three touchdowns in that game. — Barrows

LAS VEGAS

Tom Telesco, recently fired by the Chargers, is picked to be the new GM of the Raiders.  The official release:

Tom Telesco has been named General Manager of the Las Vegas Raiders. He becomes the fifth General Manager in franchise history.

Telesco enters his 29th year in the NFL after spending the last 11 seasons as the General Manager of the Chargers. During his time in San Diego and Los Angeles, he helped guide the team to three playoff appearances and two postseason victories.

He also drafted six players in the first round that went on to be selected for a Pro Bowl with the team in Jason Verrett, Melvin Gordon III, Joey Bosa, Derwin James Jr., Justin Herbert and Rashawn Slater. In 2022, Telesco constructed a roster that featured eight former Pro Bowlers who were acquired by draft, trades, or free agency.

Prior to joining the Chargers, Telesco spent 15 seasons with the Indianapolis Colts, serving as the Vice President of Football Operations (2012), Director of Player Personnel (2006-11), Director of Pro Scouting (2004-05), a pro scout (2001-03) and an area scout (1998-2000).

The task ahead per Tyler Sullivan of CBSSports.com:

Telesco will be armed with a full cupboard of draft picks this spring, including the No. 13 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Priority No. 1 could arguably be finding a quarterback for the franchise after the Jimmy Garoppolo experiment fizzled midseason alongside the firing of head coach Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler, on top of rookie Aidan O’Connell not presenting a high ceiling.

Las Vegas currently is slated to have roughly $43.5 million in available cap space, which is the 12th most in the league. Meanwhile, running back Josh Jacobs is the club’s most notable looming free agent.

BALTIMORE

If you ponder this stat, and only this stat, the Ravens are a slam dunk to win the next two.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Ravens are blowing out good opponents, like no other team in NFL history.

Baltimore’s 34-10 win over Houston in the divisional round of the playoffs was their ninth win by at least 14 points over a team that finished the season with a winning record. No other team in NFL history has that many two-touchdown wins over winning teams.

Good teams find ways to win late in close games against good opponents, but great teams blow good opponents out, and that’s what the Ravens have done this year. Between the regular season and the postseason, the Ravens have beaten:

The 14-5 Lions by 32.

The 13-5 49ers by 14.

The 11-7 Dolphins by 37.

The 11-7 Browns by 25.

The 10-8 Texans by 16 and 24.

The 9-8 Seahawks by 34.

The 9-8 Jaguars by 16.

The 9-8 Bengals by 14.

On Sunday in the AFC Championship Game, the Ravens have what might be their toughest test of the season in the Chiefs. The Ravens are favored by four. Their record so far this season says they’re capable of winning by a lot more than that.

So who did the Ravens lose to?

The answer is the Colts (9-8), Browns (11-7) and Steelers (10-7), twice.

They also played the Rams and won, their 13^th game against a team with a winning record, by 6 points in overtime.

They have five games (all wins) against teams with losing records – and only in one of those, one of their two wins over the Bengals, did the margin reach 14 or more (it was exactly 14 at 34-20).

THIS AND THAT

BROADCAST NEWS

Ratings news from Jay Busbee of YahooSports.com:

Credit Taylor Swift. Credit a close ballgame in doubt until the final minutes. Credit two of the NFL’s marquee franchises for absolutely delivering in the clutch. Credit a nasty weather pattern that kept most of the United States huddling indoors. Wherever you want to direct the credit, the result is the same: Sunday night’s divisional-round playoff game between the Chiefs and Bills was an absolute ratings monster, the most-watched program on American television since last year’s Super Bowl.

The game averaged 50.393 million viewers, up 10 percent over last year’s Cowboys-49ers game in the comparable time slot. The peak hit 56.25 million viewers. While CBS didn’t disclose streaming breakdowns, the network noted that the game also marked the most streamed event ever on its service Paramount+.

Current NFL games now add estimated out-of-home viewing (ie. bars), which contributes to larger numbers in recent years. But even without the out-of-home bump, it’s clear that sports — and NFL games in particular — remain massive attractions, and are some of the few, if only, programs that still must be viewed live.

For Sunday’s conference championship games, Mahomes and the Chiefs will take on Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in the early game, while the Lions will play the 49ers in the late game. The targets for those games, from 2023: 47.5 million for the early slot 49ers-Eagles game, 53.1 million for Bengals-Chiefs in the evening game.

2024 DRAFT

Mel Kiper Jr. offers his first Mock Draft of 2024:

With two rounds of the NFL playoffs down and the order for the top 28 picks in Round 1 set, it’s time for my first mock of the 2024 cycle. Let’s get into my early projections for April’s draft, starting with the Bears, who also pick at No. 9. The Arizona Cardinals have two picks as well (Nos. 4 and 27).

I’m not going to predict any trades below — it’s still really early to assess which teams could move up and what it would take to get there. As I’ve said before, this is merely an exercise to show you all what I’m thinking three months out from the draft, based on my Big Board rankings and what I’m hearing from execs, scouts and coaches in the league.

I’m going to use ESPN’s Football Power Index to project pick Nos. 29-32, so it’s not me deciding the Super Bowl winner. Check out the “SportsCenter Special: NFL Mock Draft 1.0,” and you can see me, Matt Miller, Kevin Negandhi and Field Yates go through all 32 picks.

1. Chicago Bears (via CAR)

Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Are the Bears really going to pass up the chance to take the top quarterback in back-to-back draft classes? I just don’t see it. Last year, of course, they got a huge haul from Carolina for trading down, with this pick included in the deal. This year they have to decide whether to keep Justin Fields or trade down again, for a bounty that likely will be even bigger. Here are the two biggest reasons why I’d keep the pick if I were running the Chicago front office:

Williams is a better prospect than Fields. We’ve now seen three NFL seasons from Fields, and he hasn’t put everything together on a consistent basis. There are too many unknowns for a guy with 38 career starts. He has completed just 60.2% of his passes while throwing 40 touchdown passes with 30 interceptions and has averaged just 7.0 yards per attempt in his career. Williams, my top-ranked prospect, is ahead of Fields as a passer — the USC product has the skill set and instincts to be a top-tier quarterback at the next level.

Taking Williams resets the Bears’ quarterback clock, which matters in an age when having a quarterback on a rookie contract means teams can build a better roster around them. If they keep Fields, they’d have to decide on his fifth-year option this spring and then extend his contract within the next year. Are they ready to do that? With a rookie, they’d get four years at a much less expensive cap number before having to pay up.

Now, Chicago doesn’t have ideal leverage to trade Fields, but it only takes two suitors to create a market. Remember that when the Cardinals traded Josh Rosen one year after drafting him at No. 10 overall, they got a second-round pick from the Dolphins. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bears get a first-rounder in return for Fields.

2. Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

The Commanders have a much more straightforward decision than the Bears. Sam Howell, who led the league in interceptions in 2023, is not the guy. They have to take a quarterback in a draft that has a clear top tier of three signal-callers: Williams, Daniels and Drake Maye (North Carolina). There’s a drop-off in the class after that. With Washington getting an opportunity to take the No. 2 quarterback here, why did I go with Daniels?

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner improved so much in 2023, throwing 40 touchdown passes to just four interceptions while going up against a tough SEC schedule. In December, I went deep on his strengths, weaknesses and future, so you can see my full thoughts on his game there. The bottom line is it’s tight between Daniels and Maye on my board, but Daniels would be an tremendous fit for a Washington roster that has some young playmakers on offense. Maye’s inconsistency at the end of the season is enough for me to put Daniels at No. 2. The reality, though, is the Commanders just hired their new general manager and still don’t have a coach, so there’s a lot to figure out about which direction they go.

3. New England Patriots

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

It’s a total makeover in New England, which will have a new coach and front office structure for the first time since Bill Belichick joined the organization in 2000. New coach Jerod Mayo, whose background is on defense, inherits a total mess on offense. The Patriots ranked second to last in the league in offensive points per game (12.9) and their offensive line ranked last in pass block win rate (43.5%). Linemen Trent Brown and Mike Onwenu and tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki are among the team’s free agents. What better way to start a new era — and possible offensive rebuild — than to take an elite quarterback at the top of the draft?

Maye had some ups and downs in 2023, but he’s an outstanding deep-ball thrower in a 6-foot-4 frame. He takes care of the football and has some dual-threat ability. There’s a ton to like in his potential. And while the Bears might struggle with the decision to move on from their first-round quarterback picked in the 2021 draft, the Patriots shouldn’t agonize much. Mac Jones has regressed enough to make that an easy call this offseason. Quarterback is by far New England’s biggest need.

4. Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

OK, finally, I can discuss a position other than quarterback. Kyler Murray played well enough after returning from his knee injury to keep the job in Arizona. The plucky Cardinals won four games and showed some improvement throughout the season, but they still finished 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game (143.2), 31st in points allowed per game (26.8) on defense and 29th in pass yards per attempt (6.2) on offense. In short, they have big needs on both sides of the ball.

Harrison is one of the best receiver prospects of the past decade, a 6-foot-4 speedster who can run every route and break tackles after the catch. In Arizona, where Marquise Brown is a free agent, he could step into the No. 1 role as a rookie. He has all the tools to win Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2024. The Cardinals also own the Texans’ first-rounder in this draft, thanks to last year’s trade during Round 1, and they could look to the defense or offensive line there.

5. Los Angeles Chargers

Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Edge rusher? Cornerback? Offensive line? Wide receiver (again)? The Chargers have big questions and still haven’t hired a new general manager or coach. This prediction is a shot in the dark until they figure out who’s making the decisions. While I could see any of those positions being addressed here, I’m going with a fit I really like based on a different potential need.

Gerald Everett caught 51 passes in 2023, but he averaged just 8.1 yards per reception. L.A. really has to add a playmaker at the tight end position. With Everett hitting free agency, there’s a hole for Bowers, who is spectacular after the catch, to fill. He had 26 touchdown catches over three college seasons, showing a stellar ability to stretch the seams. Justin Herbert hasn’t had a pass-catcher like Bowers since he entered the league in 2020.

6. New York Giants

Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

The Giants got just six games out of quarterback Daniel Jones on the way to a lost season that showed some cracks in the foundation. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale resigned after the season, and the offense under coordinator Mike Kafka struggled with Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito under center. New York’s quarterbacks were sacked a whopping 85 times, the most in the league, and the offense ranked 30th in yards per play (4.5). The Giants used top-10 picks on offensive linemen in 2020 (Andrew Thomas) and 2022 (Evan Neal), but I absolutely could see them doing it again, as tackles Joe Alt (Notre Dame) and Olu Fashanu (Penn State) are still available in this scenario.

Still, I keep coming back to getting Jones more help, as he has never played with a true No. 1 wide receiver. Nabers could be that. He’s coming off an 89-catch, 1,569-yard season catching passes from Jayden Daniels, and he has a rare combination of speed and route-running ability. He led the FBS with 17 catches of 30-plus yards. The Giants had just 15 total 30-plus yard receptions last season, five of which were from rookie third-rounder Jalin Hyatt.

7. Tennessee Titans

Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

The Titans are another team coming off a lost season, and they moved on from Mike Vrabel in the aftermath. They hired former Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan as his replacement. Rookie second-round pick Will Levis showed enough promise to get a chance to start at quarterback in 2024, but there are big holes all along the roster, including on a defense that ranked last in the league in interceptions (6).

I keep staring at the Titans’ depth chart and wondering whether they should go back to the O-line, though. They took Peter Skoronski at No. 11 a year ago and played him mostly at guard, where he was just OK. Why not solidify the left tackle spot with the top two tackles in this class on the board? Alt was the definition of a stalwart on the left side of Notre Dame’s line, where he started 33 games. He gave up just two sacks over the past two seasons. Tennessee ranked 31st in the rate of sacks per dropback (11.1%) in 2023, so putting Levis in a better position to succeed should be a priority.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama

Here we go, another team in the top 10 that hasn’t yet hired its new coach. The good thing about this projection: I don’t have another quarterback with a top-10 grade, so I’m not going to force one to Atlanta. I wonder if it might be a trade suitor for Justin Fields or instead look to the free agent market for Kirk Cousins or cut candidate Russell Wilson. (If the Falcons hire Jim Harbaugh, I reserve my right to predict Michigan signal-caller J.J. McCarthy to join his former coach.)

Let’s move to the other side of the ball, where the Falcons ranked 32nd in pass rush win rate (30.9%) and 29th in takeaways (16). Veterans Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree led the team with 6.5 sacks apiece. This is a front seven that needs an injection of youth. With Turner, they’d get the best edge defender in this class, a 242-pound outside linebacker who had 22.5 sacks over three college seasons. He ranked eighth in the FBS with a 16.7% pressure rate in 2023.

9. Chicago Bears

Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Chicago likely will take a hard look at the edge rushers in this class to try to find a starter to play on the other side of Montez Sweat, who finished the season with 12.5 total sacks (six for Chicago) after being acquired from Washington. Turner could have been a fit, and I also thought about Laiatu Latu (UCLA), who is the best pure pass-rusher in this class. But with the Bears’ second top-10 pick, I want to slot in a playmaker for the new quarterback I gave them at No. 1.

Odunze had 92 catches for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns for the Huskies in 2023. He played out wide and inside — 30 of his catches came from lining up in the slot — and ran every route in the receiving tree. This would be tremendous value for Odunze, who is No. 5 overall on my board. He could be the 1B to DJ Moore, who had a great first season in Chicago. And with Williams throwing them the ball, the Bears’ offense would be extremely dynamic.

10. New York Jets

Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

One year after the Jets got jumped by the Steelers in Round 1 and lost out on Broderick Jones, here’s a chance for New York to get its left tackle of the present and future. It’s the biggest void on the offense, especially with Mekhi Becton hitting free agency. As quarterback Aaron Rodgers makes his return to the lineup, he’d be thrilled to have Fashanu protecting his blind side.

At 6-foot-6, 319 pounds, Fashanu has the physical traits and footwork of an elite lineman. He could have been a first-rounder in last year’s draft if he had entered. He allowed one sack in 21 career starts for the Nittany Lions. He still hasn’t come close to reaching his ceiling.

11. Minnesota Vikings

Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

In my final mock ahead of the 2023 draft, I projected the Vikings taking a cornerback. Instead, they went with wide receiver Jordan Addison, who had a fantastic rookie season, catching 10 touchdown passes. That need in the secondary still exists. Minnesota ranked 28th in passing yards allowed to receivers last season (3,019), and 2022 second-rounder Andrew Booth Jr. hasn’t quite figured things out. Let’s go back to Clemson — Booth’s former school — with the selection of Wiggins here. Wiggins was a lockdown defender in 2023, allowing just 4.2 yards per attempt as the nearest defender in coverage.

Could the Vikings take a quarterback? For sure. Kirk Cousins is a free agent, and I don’t think rookie fifth-rounder Jaren Hall will be the guy long-term. At this point, though, the most likely option might be running it back with Cousins, so adding a starter on defense makes more sense. This obviously could change as we learn more about general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s plans.

12. Denver Broncos

Laiatu Latu, OLB, UCLA

I love Latu’s ability to bend the edge and get after quarterbacks. He’s a toolsy pass-rusher who has a variety of moves and always has a plan of attack. He ranked second in the FBS in total pressures (57) and pressure rate (20.4%) this past season, and he ranked first in the same categories in 2022 (55 pressures, 19.1% pressure rate). And did I mention he had 23.5 sacks in that time frame? Those are two seasons of phenomenal production. The questions with Latu will come at the NFL combine in a few weeks, as he medically retired from football because of a neck injury when he was at Washington in 2021. He was cleared to play for the Bruins, but what will his medical checkups show?

For Denver, adding Latu would be a boost to a pass rush that was just OK last season. The Broncos tied for 21st with 42 sacks, but overall they ranked 30th in yards per play allowed (5.8) and 32nd in yards per carry allowed (5.0). Latu has the potential to become a 10-sacks-per-season defender.

13. Las Vegas Raiders

Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

This was another spot in which I thought about slotting in the fourth quarterback in this class, as the Raiders are likely to move on from Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason and rookie fourth-round pick Aidan O’Connell struggled after some early flashes. Ultimately, this might be Las Vegas’ best chance to get a true No. 1 cover corner, though, as Arnold took his game to another level in 2023.

He picked off five passes and had 12 total breakups as quarterbacks completed just 37.9% of their passes when he was the nearest defender in coverage. He can shut down one side of the field for a defense that improved down the stretch but still has a ways to go to compete in a tough AFC West.

14. New Orleans Saints

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

Derek Carr had an up-and-down debut season in New Orleans, and his sizable contract almost certainly means he’ll be back as the starter in 2024. But what do we know about the playmakers around him? Chris Olave is a star who has put up back-to-back seasons with 1,000 receiving yards. After that? There are big questions. Michael Thomas likely will move on this offseason, while Alvin Kamara has regressed in recent years. And while Rashid Shaheed showed he can be a useful complementary receiver, Carr could use another asset in the receiving game to try to boost this offense.

Thomas, the third of the LSU offensive players off the board in this projection, led the FBS with 17 touchdown catches last season while averaging 17.3 yards per reception. He had just three drops on 93 targets. He can take the top off defenses and be a stellar No. 2 option as a rookie. Plus, the born-and-raised Louisiana kid wouldn’t have to leave the state.

15. Indianapolis Colts

Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

One of the top edge rushers could be in play here for the Colts, but I’m leaning toward a like-for-like replacement, as Michael Pittman Jr. could get a megadeal in free agency and leave the team. If that happens, there will be a massive need for a big, physical pass-catcher, which describes Coleman’s game.

At 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, Coleman can box out cornerbacks and go up and get deep balls. He has fantastic body control when the ball is in the air. He had 11 touchdowns after transferring to Florida State from Michigan State. Coleman, Josh Downs and Alec Pierce would form an excellent receiving corps for young quarterback Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis.

16. Seattle Seahawks

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

OK, here’s a spot for the next quarterback. While I don’t have a first-round grade on McCarthy right now — a lot can change before Round 1 on April 25 — he does have first-round arm talent, along with the ability to beat defenses with his legs. He’s the type of quarterback teams will take a shot at in the middle of the first round, especially when you consider he just turned 21 a few days ago. He rarely turns the ball over — he threw 44 touchdown passes and had nine picks over the past two seasons — and can make every throw. McCarthy just wasn’t asked to beat teams with his arm for the Wolverines, because they so often dominated at the line of scrimmage. As of now, I’m betting on a team seeing his upside and trying to take him somewhere in the teens.

For Seattle, the contract Geno Smith signed last March made it clear the team could get out after one season. Smith had a decent season (20 TD passes, 9 INTs), but will he really be here long term? I could see the Seahawks severing ties and starting fresh for whomever the new coach ends up being.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

The Jaguars’ collapse to end the season — they lost five of their final six games and missed the playoffs — exposed some serious roster issues, and they could have more holes to plug this offseason. That’s because top edge rusher Josh Allen and No. 2 wideout Calvin Ridley are free agents, and both could get enticing offers if they hit the open market in March. Ridley is probably more likely to leave, but I just projected five receivers in the top 15 picks, which means Jacksonville might not like the pass-catchers left on the board. That’s why I’m pivoting to a defense that struggled down the stretch.

DeJean, who was having an All-America season before he broke his leg in November, allowed just 3.5 yards per attempt as the nearest defender in coverage this past season. He had seven interceptions from 2022-23, including three pick-sixes. He could play in the slot or outside, making him a nice complementary corner with Darious Williams and Tyson Campbell.

18. Cincinnati Bengals

JC Latham, OT, Alabama

We could see a run on offensive linemen starting around here — this is a really talented tackle class. I have seven tackles ranked among my top 25 overall prospects. Latham started 27 games at right tackle for the Crimson Tide over the past two seasons. He can maul defenders in the run game, but he’s also light on his feet as a pass-protector. With Jonah Williams headed to free agency, Latham could slot in on the right side and be an instant starter. I could also see the Bengals look toward the defensive tackle class, with Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois) and T’Vondre Sweat (Texas) still available.

19. Los Angeles Rams

Jared Verse, DE, Florida State

The Rams got outstanding play from two rookie defensive linemen in edge rusher Byron Young (8 sacks) and tackle Kobie Turner (9 sacks), but they’re relatively thin along the defensive line. Can they find another impact edge rusher, this time in Round 1, to help a defense that finished 30th in takeaways (15)?

Verse was inconsistent in his two seasons at Florida State, but there’s no doubting his talent and 6-foot-4, 253-pound frame. He put up 18 sacks and 81 pressures from 2022-23, with 50 of those pressures coming last season. That’s the pass-rush improvement I hoped to see before the season. His next step is creating more turnovers, as he had just one forced fumble for the Seminoles.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia

Sure, the Steelers hit on cornerback Joey Porter Jr. with the top pick of Round 2 a year ago, but this is a defense that saw 33-year-old corner Patrick Peterson play more than 1,000 snaps, so there’s room for an injection of youth at the position. Lassiter emerged as a lockdown corner for the Bulldogs in 2023, though he had just one career interception, which came all the way back in 2021. Still, he allowed a total of nine receptions for 91 yards as the nearest defender in coverage, and none of those passes went for scores. He could form an elite duo with Porter.

21. Miami Dolphins

Troy Fautanu, G, Washington

The Dolphins could lose two starting offensive linemen in free agency, as center Connor Williams and right guard Robert Hunt are scheduled to hit the market in March. They also likely will have limited cap space, particularly with the potential of Tua Tagovailoa getting a big extension. Why not add an O-line replacement here? There’s room to improve, as Miami ranked 31st in pass block win rate (49.2%).

Fautanu started 31 career games for the Huskies, spending most of his time at left tackle. I see his future at guard, however, as his 6-foot-4, 317-pound frame and playing style fit on the interior. He allowed two career sacks on nearly 1,250 pass-blocking snaps. It wouldn’t shock me if a team drafted Fautanu to play tackle, but I see All-Pro upside for him at guard.

22. Philadelphia Eagles

Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

The Eagles were a disaster at the end of the season, and they have several roster questions to answer this offseason (with a long list of pending free agents). On defense, they have needs at cornerback and safety, and their pass rush was putrid down the stretch. On offense, their line is getting older — right tackle Lane Johnson turns 34 in May — and they’ll have to replace star center Jason Kelce. Taking Fuaga is a way to add a top-tier talent and figure out the rest later.

Cam Jurgens, a second-rounder in 2022, probably would replace Kelce, which means the right guard spot would open up. Fuaga started 25 games at right tackle for the Beavers, but he could play inside as a rookie before ultimately replacing Johnson. He is a dominant run-blocker with powerful hands and strong lower body.

23. Houston Texans (via CLE)

Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

The Texans overachieved and won a playoff game on the back of a stellar rookie class, but they have work to do this offseason. They have cap space to make moves but also have several free agents, including top edge rusher Jonathan Greenard (12.5), tight end Dalton Schultz (59 catches) and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (6 sacks). While I can see Houston pursuing multiple positions with this pick, Newton would both fill a void and be a high-upside selection.

Newton is the best interior pass-rusher in this class; he had 16.5 sacks in three seasons for the Fighting Illini. He improved his pressure rate in every season, showing off an impressive combination of strength and natural talent. He also has versatility, as three of his sacks were from when he lined up as the nose tackle. He could slot into Rankins’ spot in the lineup.

24. Dallas Cowboys

Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

The NFL’s other franchise in Texas had the opposite rookie class as the Texans, as the Cowboys got very little from their first-year players (unless you include first-team All-Pro kicker Brandon Aubrey, who played in the USFL). And while they’ve been known for their tremendous offensive line play for years, both left tackle Tyron Smith and right guard Zack Martin are 33, with Smith now out of contract. Sure, they appear to have hit on 2022 first-rounder Tyler Smith, who has excelled at left guard, but they have to add more talent to their line.

Morgan is one of my favorite pass-protectors in this class. I love the way he moves his feet and handles twists and stunts. He started 35 games at left tackle in college, which would make him a perfect fit to replace Tyron Smith.

25. Green Bay Packers

Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU

As I mentioned earlier, this is a talented tackle class, and so if Green Bay has a chance to get its blindside protector of the future, it should take it. David Bakhtiari has played just 25 games over the past four seasons because of knee issues, including one in 2023. The Packers can’t rely on him coming back.

The 6-foot-6 Suamataia started 23 games for the Cougars over the past two seasons, 12 at right tackle and 11 at left tackle. I love the potential he showed this past season when he gave up three sacks and only eight total pressures. He is a mountain of a man who can move to the second level and take on linebackers in the run game.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State

Tampa Bay is another franchise with big looming decisions in free agency, as quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receiver Mike Evans, linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. are among the key contributors on track to hit the market. That makes a projection this early really tough. I keep looking at the Bucs’ pass rush, though, and wondering if they could try to upgrade, particularly since rookie Yaya Diaby led them in sacks (7.5).

I wrote before the season that Robinson had the potential to break out, but he never quite put it all together, following up a 5.5-sack season in 2022 with four in 2023. His 18% pressure rate was really solid, but it didn’t translate into production. Still, I expect Robinson to test well at the combine, and we know NFL teams fall in love with edge rushers who have high-upside traits. Robinson is still a bit raw, but he has tools with which to work.

27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)

Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

We’re finally back to Arizona, which almost certainly thought this pick would be much higher when it made the trade with Houston last April. I gave the Cardinals a WR1 at No. 4 overall, and this pick could be a way to solidify their bookends, as they drafted Paris Johnson Jr. at No. 6 a year ago. Johnson spent his rookie season on the right side, but he’s suited to play left tackle, as that’s where he played his final season at Ohio State. Guyton, however, spent almost all of his time at right tackle for the Sooners; he allowed zero sacks in 2023.

As I wrote in my scouting report on Guyton, NFL teams will covet his physical tools, even though he started just 15 games in college. I could also see the Cardinals take a cornerback here, with Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo) and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (Missouri) the best available in my rankings.

28. Buffalo Bills

Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

I made a late change with this pick after I watched Josh Allen average 4.8 yards per attempt in the home playoff loss to the Chiefs. His receivers struggled to get open and didn’t make enough plays after the catch once they did. Stefon Diggs hasn’t had a 100-yard game since mid-October, and Gabe Davis is now a free agent. General manager Brandon Beane can find a useful pass-catcher here.

The 6-foot-4 Mitchell broke out after transferring from Georgia, catching 55 passes for 845 yards and 11 scores for the Longhorns in 2023. He thrived on crossing routes, using his size and quickness to get separation from defenders. He has great hands. The position I almost went with? Nose tackle, because T’Vondre Sweat (Texas) could be a great fit in the middle of the Buffalo defense.

29. Kansas City Chiefs

Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon

Did you expect me to go with another position? Kansas City’s receivers really struggled this season, outside of rookie second-rounder Rashee Rice, who might already be their top wideout. Chiefs pass-catchers dropped 38 passes during the regular season, ranking last in the league. That’s why I’m giving them a talented playmaker with this pick.

Franklin averaged 17.1 yards per catch in 2023 and had 23 receiving touchdowns over the past two seasons. He is a big, 6-foot-3 target with deceptive speed who can break tackles after the catch. This isn’t the first time I’ve projected Kansas City to land a receiver in Round 1 — I gave them Zay Flowers in my final 2023 mock — but the hole is too large to not fill here. By the way, this makes seven wideouts in Round 1, which would tie the record for most in a single draft (2004).

30. Detroit Lions

Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

Detroit landed a second-round steal last year in safety/slot corner Brian Branch, who had three interceptions in an excellent rookie season. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough to solve this defense’s issues defending the pass. The Lions ranked 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.8) and 30th in passing yards allowed to receivers (3,081). Simply put, they have to get better at corner.

Mitchell leveled up this past season, not allowing a single touchdown pass as the nearest defender in coverage, despite being targeted 59 times. He picked off five passes in 2022, but he gave up four scores — he was much more consistent in 2023, though he had only one interception. I’m excited to see how Mitchell performs at Senior Bowl practices next week.

31. Baltimore Ravens

Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri

The Ravens’ defense has been spectacular this season, but defensive tackles Justin Madubuike and Michael Pierce, edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney, linebacker Patrick Queen and safety Geno Stone are all set to be free agents this offseason. While they’re likely to bring back a couple of these players and might have young replacements on their roster for others, I see a banged-up cornerback group that could use more depth.

Rakestraw would make six cornerbacks off the board in Round 1, which would be the most since the 2020 draft. He has the versatility to play out wide or in the slot. He had just one interception in four college seasons, but he did have 24 career pass breakups, so he knows how to get his hands on throws. I like Rakestraw’s fit in Baltimore.

32. San Francisco 49ers

Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

This makes eight offensive tackles in my first mock for the 2024 class, 25% of the entire first round. That would be the most since the 2008 draft when there were also eight in the top 32 (including the No. 1 overall pick). The 49ers have an obvious need at right tackle, as starter Colton McKivitz allowed 11 sacks in the regular season. They need to upgrade in a deep and talented class.

There’s some risk with taking Mims, as he started only eight games in college because of injuries and NFL picks in front of him on the Georgia depth chart. But his ceiling is incredibly high; at 6-foot-7, 340 pounds, he has the traits to be a future Pro Bowler if he can put it all together. Mims didn’t allow a single sack in 372 career pass-blocking snaps.