AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
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NFC NORTH
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GREEN BAY
Even Mike Florio, who has had plenty of unkind words about QB AARON RODGERS, is appalled that Hub Arkush, one of 50 MVP voters, is loudly proclaiming that he will not vote for Rodgers for reasons that have nothing to do with football.
Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the favorite to win the league’s MVP award. But one voter has already ruled out Rodgers for consideration.
That voter is Hub Arkush, who is one of the 50 members of the media the Associated Press gives a vote for the MVP award that the NFL treats as its official MVP and awards at the annual NFL Honors event. Arkush called Rodgers a “jerk” and a “bad guy” and said today on 670 The Score in Chicago that Rodgers won’t have his vote.
“I don’t think you can be the biggest jerk in the league and punish your team, and your organization and your fan base the way he did and be the Most Valuable Player,” Arkush said. “Has he been the most valuable on the field? Yeah, you could make that argument, but I don’t think he is clearly that much more valuable than Jonathan Taylor or Cooper Kupp or maybe even Tom Brady. So from where I sit, the rest of it is why he’s not gonna be my choice. Do I think he’s gonna win it? Probably. A lot of voters don’t approach it the way I do, but others do, who I’ve spoken to. But one of the ways we get to keep being voters is we’re not allowed to say who we are voting for until after the award has been announced. I’m probably pushing the envelope by saying who I’m not voting for. But we’re not really supposed to reveal our votes.”
Arkush said he is free to vote how he chooses without any rules about whether he can consider off-field issues like Rodgers being unvaccinated and spending 10 days on the COVID-19 reserve list.
“There’s no guidelines,” Arkush said. “We are told to pick the guy who we think is most valuable to his team. And I don’t think it says anywhere, ‘strictly on the field,’ although I do think he hurt his team on the field by the way he acted off the field. They’re gonna get the No. 1 seed anyway, but what if the difference had come down to the Chiefs game, where he lied about being vaccinated, and they ended up getting beat?”
Arkush is a longtime Chicago sports writer who acknowledged that some people will “just think I’m a Packer hater,” but he said he knows for a fact that he’s not the only person who won’t vote for Rodgers.
“I can guarantee you I will not be the only one not voting for him,” Arkush said.
For Arkush, it comes down to who Rodgers is as a person, not who Rodgers is as a quarterback.
“I just think that the way he’s carried himself is inappropriate,” Arkush said. “I think he’s a bad guy, and I don’t think a bad guy can be the most valuable guy at the same time.”
Frankly, Arkush’s reasoning is ridiculous, and calls into question whether the Associated Press should even be the arbiter of the NFL’s MVP award. If the AP can’t find 50 voters who will consider players based on their on-field performance and not for the voters’ subjective assessments of whether the players are “bad guys,” then the NFL should stop using the AP for its official awards, and instead find a panel of voters who will carefully consider players’ on-field performance and vote without personal bias.
Even if making medical decisions that run contrary to your beliefs and being a “jerk” mattered, we would still argue that Rodgers, however he got there, was merely one of hundreds of NFL players this year who missed one game, one game, because of COVID. As for the “jerk” part, other than some tweaking of the media, the 2021 version of Rodgers seems to have been exemplary with his interactions with his teammates and others in the Packers organization.
After Florio called him to task, Arkush acknowledged a mistake. Not in his thinking, but in expressing it publicly. Florio:
Arkush acknowledged an error not with his reasoning but with his decision to disclose it publicly.
“I made a big mistake last night,” Arkush said.
He explained that the mistake came not from tying the vote to improper factors but in talking about it publicly.
“It’s on me,” Arkush said of his decision to disclose his plan to not vote for Rodgers. “I screwed up. . . . All you can do is own it, and I own it.”
It’s unclear whether he’ll still own one of the 50 votes. He shouldn’t. But not because he talked about his voting plans. He shouldn’t have a vote because he won’t vote for Rodgers for reasons unrelated to merit. And at no point on Wednesday did he say that he has reconsidered the situation or that he realizes he shouldn’t base the vote on offseason drama or vaccination prevarication.
So, yes, he shouldn’t have spoken about it. By doing so, however, he put the AP on notice that he’s not using the right factors in making these important decisions. It will be interesting to see whether AP lets him have what amounts to a two-percent voice for all of the AP awards and the All-Pro team.
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
More on the injury to WR MICHAEL GALLUP who needs re-constructive surgery while his contract is ending. Nick Eatman of DallasCowboys.com:
As expected, the Cowboys will be without wide receiver Michael Gallup for the remainder of the season.
Gallup suffered the knee injury while catching a touchdown Sunday against the Cardinals, but did not return.
On Monday, Cowboys chief operating officer Stephen Jones was interviewed on 105.3 “The Fan” in Dallas and acknowledged that Gallup indeed suffered a torn ACL and will need reconstructive surgery.
“What a great competitor. It doesn’t surprise me he made the play. That’s just him,” Jones said of Gallup. “He’s got a great positive attitude. Obviously, that’s a very difficult blow.”
The timing is bad for both the Cowboys and Gallup, considering we’re getting close to the playoffs and the fourth-year receiver has started to assert himself back into the rotation nicely after missing nine weeks with a calf injury.
The touchdown catch alone – a 21-yard reception where he spun to the outside and got his feet inbounds, is an example of how well Gallup has been there with sideline and contested catches.
Gallup’s season will end with 35 catches for 445 yards and two touchdowns.
But the injury also clouds his future somewhat since he was expected to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.
“I know he was looking forward to free agency was going to bring. Hopefully, right here in Dallas,” said Jones, who said the team’s approach in re-signing Gallup won’t change with the injury. “Not at all. We’ve got some challenges that we’ll address in the offseason. No one thinks more of Michael Gallup than the Dallas Cowboys and his teammates. He’s a class act all the way. He’ll come back strong and better than ever.”
Without Gallup this year, the Cowboys will again look to Cedrick Wilson, who has been a playmaker all season. ON Sunday, he caught six passes for 35 yards and a touchdown and also threw a pass to Tony Pollard, showing off his versatility.
Behind starters Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, Wilson is expected to be the third receiver in this offense, followed by Noah Brown and Malik Turner, who does have three touchdown catches this year.
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WASHINGTON
The railing fell, Eagles fans tumbled around QB JALEN HURTS along with it, and amazingly no one was seriously hurt (although as tends to happen with negligence, injuries are emerging). Still, Hurts (and the Eagles?) are letting the WFT have it. Tim McManus of ESPN.com:
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has sent a letter to the Washington Football Team and the NFL asking what follow-up action would be taken after Sunday’s railing collapse at FedEx Field.
“I tried to handle the situation with a lot of poise and show compassion for the people that fell down, really, but I know it could have been so much worse,” Hurts said Tuesday. “It kind of didn’t hit me until after the fact, having some time to reflect on it and think about it. I just wanted to see what could be done to make sure it doesn’t happen again. That’s all I really care about.”
A railing on the side of the tunnel leading to the visiting locker room at FedEx Field collapsed just as Hurts was exiting after Philadelphia’s 20-16 win. Multiple videos show a group of about eight fans falling approximately 6 feet to the ground.
Hurts sidestepped the falling fans and wasn’t hit. He helped one individual up and asked several of them if they were OK while posing for pictures.
According to a team spokesperson, WFT president Jason Wright “received the letter and sent a private email in reply. He looks forward to talking to Jalen. Additionally, we’re working to ensure this does not happen again.”
The NFL also released a statement later Tuesday.
“We appreciate Jalen’s concerns and have been reviewing the incident with the Washington Football Team,” NFL vice president of communications Brian McCarthy said.
Washington released a statement Sunday evening, reading in part: “To our knowledge, everyone involved was offered on-site medical evaluation and left the stadium of their own accord.”
However, four individuals who fell as a result of the railing collapse — all of whom say they suffered injuries from the incident, most of them minor — rebutted the suggestion that they were offered on-site medical evaluation.
“The only thing the staff said to us was to get the F off the field,” said Andrew Collins, 26, of Brooklawn, New Jersey.
In his letter, Hurts asked, “What follow-up action is being considered in response to the near-tragic incident that took place at FedEx Field on January 2, 2022.
“Through the initial shock, my first reaction was to assist those involved. However, while I displayed a calm composure, I understand the severity of what happened and am extremely concerned for the well-being of the fans and media. As a result, I would like to know what safeguards the NFL and the Washington Football Team are implementing to prevent this from ever occurring in the future.”
Mike Naimoli, a 26-year-old from Sicklerville, New Jersey, said he began experiencing neck and arm pain, as well as a tingling sensation in the hand that he said got trapped underneath the barricade, shortly after the incident. He went to the Inspira Medical Center in Mullica Hill, New Jersey, on Sunday evening to get checked out and was fitted with a neck brace as he waited in the emergency room, he said. When he was discharged after 5:30 a.m. ET Monday, he was diagnosed with a cervical strain and a head injury along with elbow and knee contusions, documents show.
Collins said he was experiencing lower back pain and a pulled groin on Monday, while his girlfriend, 22-year-old Marissa Santarlasci, and Naimoli’s fiancée, 24-year-old Morgan French, said they suffered substantial leg bruising.
According to a source with knowledge of the situation, Prince George’s County emergency medical services personnel were on the scene within five minutes and began treating those who needed medical attention, including one media member who had been carted off and another fan. The source said they weren’t aware of anyone else needing medical attention at that time.
One Washington team official said the area where the fans congregated was for people with disabilities and was designed for wheelchair access and that the railing is not load-bearing and is therefore not designed to withstand hundreds of pounds leaning into it. Members of the group contend, however, that they were granted access to the area by a member of stadium security and that there was no signage indicating it was a restricted area.
“I was at the front of the railing, and I felt pressure as soon as we went down there. Me and Andrew were like, ‘This thing is going to collapse,'” Santarlasci said. “More and more people kept piling in … and as soon as Hurts came by, obviously it collapsed. I fell down. And as I was getting up, I was trying to get my foot out of the railing because it was still caught, and the people at FedEx, they were just ripping up the railing as my foot was still caught in it.
“They didn’t even ask, ‘Are you OK? Do you need help?’ Nothing. They just went about their day. Hurts was actually the one asking, ‘Are you guys OK?’ It was crazy.”
After narrowly avoiding being hit by the collapse, Hurts picked one fan up off the ground who appeared to have hit his head then posed for pictures, before giving his game gloves to another fan who had fallen right in front of him.
“The resources of the NFL and team organizations ensure our safety through playing this physical sport,” Hurts wrote, “but what happened Sunday put both fans and players unnecessarily at risk long after the final whistle. I look forward to hearing from you on this matter.”
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NFC SOUTH
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TAMPA BAY
More from Bruce Arians on the signing and departure of WR ANTONIO BROWN. Jenna Laine of ESPN.com:
One day after now-former Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Antonio Brown jogged off the field in the middle of the Bucs’ 28-24 win at the New York Jets, resulting in his dismissal from the team, coach Bruce Arians said he does not regret bringing Brown into the organization.
“I have no regrets. I just hope the best for him,” Arians said Monday, acknowledging that it was difficult for him to watch Brown erupt on the sideline in such a chaotic way.
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“It was very hard,” Arians said. “I wish him well. If he needs help, I hope he gets some. It’s very hard. Because I do care about him.”
Brown has a history of volatile behavior and has discussed his mental health in the past. Arians said Monday that he still isn’t sure why Brown left the field.
“I care about him a bunch. I hope that he’s OK,” he said.
Arians said he did not speak to Brown after he left the field — only before leaving it. He would not disclose the details of that interaction, only that the conversation at no point involved Brown’s injured ankle.
An NFL Network report said that Brown was upset because he didn’t feel he could continue playing on his ankle, which he injured in Week 6, forcing him to miss five games along with three additional games because of his league-imposed suspension for producing a fake COVID-19 vaccination card.
“I don’t know that he was [injured],” Arians said.
Did he say that he was injured? “No,” Arians said.
“It’s pretty obvious what happened. He left the field and that was it,” Arians said. “We had a conversation, and he left the field.”
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NFC WEST
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SAN FRANCISCO
Ted Ngyuen of The Athletic liked what he saw from QB TREY LANCE last Sunday.
The 49ers drafted Trey Lance with the expectation that his plus traits will elevate Kyle Shanahan’s offense. His arm gives the 49ers offense a vertical element it has lacked and his running ability gives defenses yet another problem they have to account for. The 49ers also chose Lance because he’s a football junkie and you have to be obsessive in your preparation to absorb this offense. Against the Texans, after he settled down, Lance gave the 49ers a preview of how all those things would look when they came together. The 49ers brass should be very encouraged with how he manipulated the game with his mind, arm and even added a touch of creativity.
“After that two-minute drive, I think is when I started talking to Rich (Scangarello) and Kyle (Shanahan) and kind of letting them know that I felt settled honestly,” Lance said after the game.”But yeah, hopefully you can get started faster whenever that next time is.”
Lance’s slow start should not have been a surprise. He does not have a lot of experience playing quarterback at any level of football. Against the Cardinals, in his first start, he did some good things, but the game looked like it was moving too fast for him. He needs real-time reps but the 49ers are in playoff contention and Jimmy Garoppolo gives them the best chance week in and week out for now. His gradual improvement throughout this game shows how valuable reps are for Lance.
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(Ngyuen breaks down a lot of plays which we will skip except for this one)
On Lance’s long touchdown pass to Samuel in the fourth quarter, Shanahan called “Hiccup,” which has been an effective shot play for the 49ers. Many offensive coordinators with quarterbacks with big arms have added the play to their playbooks this season.
“It’s a real similar concept that we ran against the Chiefs in the preseason to Trent (Sherfield),” Lance said. “I threw it just the opposite direction, but Deebo (Samuel) is there. The safety’s eyes were on me, Deebo made a great play. Obviously, you know he’s a tough guy to tackle as you can see.”
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During this game, Lance made a lot of plays with his mind. He understood what the Texans wanted to do defensively, made adjustments before the snap, manipulated defenders with his eyes and made spectacular throws with his arm. Although the Texans are a bad team overall, their defense hasn’t been a dumpster fire. After this week’s game, they’re ranked 18th in pass defense DVOA, Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric. Garoppolo still gives them the best chance at a playoff run because he allows Shanahan to run a bigger part of his playbook with his experience and command of the playbook, but based on some traits he flashed in this game, Lance could truly unlock this offense with his rare abilities.
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Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com lays out what’s at stake Sunday for the 49ers:
The San Francisco 49ers need an upset to make the playoffs.
The 49ers are underdogs at the Los Angeles Rams. The New Orleans Saints are favored to beat the Atlanta Falcons. If the 49ers lose and the Saints win, the Saints are the No. 7 seed in the NFC. The 49ers would be out.
That’s just one of a few Week 18 playoff scenarios that needs to play out. There’s not a ton of drama in the final week — Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders is the only game in which the result should directly impact if both teams make the playoffs — but there is some stuff that needs to be settled.
The 49ers are the team that could end up being the most surprising cut in the postseason field. They’re 9-7 and have played very well for a couple months. But a loss at the Tennessee Titans a couple weeks ago could bite them. Conversely, the Saints’ shocking shutout win at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could end up being the biggest reason they make the playoffs. The only way the 49ers are guaranteed a spot is by beating the Rams.
The 49ers-Rams game has another twist: The Rams haven’t clinched the NFC West. If they lose and the Cardinals win, Arizona would be the NFC West champs. It should be an interesting afternoon in Los Angeles.
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AFC NORTH
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CINCINNATI
The Bengals will have to defeat the Browns Sunday without the services of QB JOE BURROW. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is the first high-profile player to confirm that he’s going to skip Week 18 to get ready for the playoffs.
Burrow told reporters today that he will not play on Sunday against the Browns.
Although Burrow tweaked his knee at the end of last week’s win over the Chiefs, he said the knee has nothing to do with it. He’s simply trying to stay fresh for the playoffs.
Technically, the Bengals do have something to play for this week, as they’re not out of contention for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the bye week that comes with it. But for the Bengals to win the No. 1 seed, they would need to beat the Browns and have the Titans lose to the Texans and have the Chiefs lose to the Broncos and have the Bills beat the Jets. It’s very unlikely that all those things will happen.
And so the Bengals will wisely have Burrow sit this one out, and make sure he’s good to go when they’re hosting a playoff game a week later.
RB JOE MIXON, who has tested positive for COVID, is also out.
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CLEVELAND
No QB BAKER MAYFIELD for the Browns this week as he opts to finally get his labrum repaired. Jake Trotter of ESPN.com:
Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield won’t play Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals, so that he can move forward with surgery to repair the torn labrum in his non-throwing left shoulder.
Browns coach Kevin Stefanski said Mayfield’s surgery could happen as soon as this week. A league source told ESPN that Mayfield could be back in time to participate in OTAs, which typically take place in May or June around the league.
Mayfield, who has been playing with the shoulder injury since Week 2, admitted following Monday night’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers that he was “pretty damn beat up.” Mayfield was sacked nine times in the game.
“I’ve continued to lay it out on the line when I haven’t been healthy and tried to fight for our guys,” said Mayfield, who’s been playing with a harness on the shoulder to prevent it from popping out of place. “Now it’s time for me to start looking at what’s in the best interest of me and my health.”
The Browns (7-9) were eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday when the Bengals clinched the AFC North Division title. Mayfield, who quarterbacked Cleveland to its first playoff victory in 26 years last season, has struggled since suffering the shoulder injury, ranking 26th in the league in QBR (35.2).
On Monday, he also became the first NFL quarterback since 2019 to throw 10 consecutive incompletions, and the first since 2017 to be sacked at least five times and have five passes batted down at the line of scrimmage in the same game.
On Tuesday, Stefanski acknowledged that the shoulder injury and harness had affected Mayfield’s performance this season, but had no regrets about not giving him an extended rest to recover at any point.
“Throughout this whole thing, we have tried to make the right decision based on all the information available to us,” Stefanski said. “Constant dialogue with our medical staff, with Baker, and throughout have really felt comfortable based on all that information that he was able to play.”
Mayfield is under contract with Cleveland through the 2022 season, with the Browns having already exercised the fifth-year option on his rookie deal.
Mayfield’s stubborn refusal to succumb to his injuries may have been motivated out of a fear of being Wally Pipp’d by the somewhat competent QB CASE KEENUM. Still, Keenum professes nothing but respect:
It will be Keenum’s second start of the season. He also got the nod in Cleveland’s Week Seven win over the Broncos, finishing 21-of-33 passing for 199 yards with a touchdown.
There were points during the season where it looked like Keenum could replace Mayfield again due to the starter’s various injuries. But the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft continued to play week after week.
“One of the gutsiest, toughest performances from a quarterback in a season I’ve ever seen,” Keenum said of Mayfield on Wednesday, via Jake Trotter of ESPN. “[O]ne of the toughest guys I know. He’s a fighter and came to fight every day. … Tremendous amount of respect for him and it grew.”
Keenum added, “There were some weeks, getting [Mayfield] onto the field was a small miracle.”
In some ways, that raises the question why didn’t Stefanski and the Browns turn to Keenum more often to give Mayfield more time to heal? Keenum displayed in Week Seven that he is fully capable of running the offense.
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AFC SOUTH
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JACKSONVILLE
The Jaguars have interviewed Jim Caldwell, but Matt Eberflus, the Colts DC, told them to wait. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus will be facing the Jaguars in the regular season finale and he won’t be talking to them about becoming their head coach before that game.
NFL rules now allow teams without a head coach to interview candidates from other teams during the final two weeks of the regular season, but not all aspiring head coaches are taking advantage of that opportunity. Eberflus is in that group and told reporters he made the decision after speaking with head coach Frank Reich and General Manager Chris Ballard.
“That situation came up last week when the slip came through to speak to them,” Eberflus said, via Joel A. Erickson of the Indianapolis Star. “We decided as an organization, Chris and I and Frank, that we were going to postpone that until afterwards. We wanted to focus on the matter at hand, and that’s what we decided to do as a group.”
Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn and Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett made the same decision as Eberflus, who called it “a great assumption” that he wants to be an NFL head coach at some point.
How many fans will show up at the game Sunday? And how many will take part in this protest? Joe Rivera of The Sporting News:
Jaguars fans may be arriving in clown cars this Sunday.
Jacksonville faithful have taken to social media to voice their displeasure with the team in a unique way: Some have changed their Twitter avatars to images of clowns with Shad Khan’s signature curly mustache.
On Sunday, they’ll take it a step further when they’ll arrive in Jacksonville in full clown get-up, according to The Associated Press.
That’s right: Some Jags fans are getting in full clown makeup, suits, shoes and honk-honk noses on Sunday to protest the team and their retaining of general manager Trent Baalke, with whom fans are very disappointed.
The 2021 Jaguars season has been no laughing matter: The team is heading toward a dreadful 2-15 finish, a similar finish to last year’s 2-14 debacle that ended with the No. 1 overall pick and Trevor Lawrence as the selection.
This year, there’s no Lawrence light at the end of the tunnel. Instead, the team is headed for another head coach hiring — their third coach in three years — but is reportedly retaining Baalke, a fact that has clearly peeved the fan base.
While Baalke has some success in the league as a GM, his hiring came after the hiring of now-fired coach Urban Meyer, seemingly indicating that Baalke was Meyer’s selection at GM. With Meyer gone, there’s no more meatshield for Baalke and his decisions.
Fans have been flooding the team’s Twitter account, urging the Jaguars to make a change at GM.
Needless to say, it was something of a clown show for Jacksonville in 2021. It seems that may be true for at least one day in 2022, as well.
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THIS AND THAT
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COACHING CAROUSEL
ESPN insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler survey potential job openings:
What’s the latest you’ve heard on potential head-coach openings?
Graziano: If I were making odds, I’d say we have five openings next week. Raiders and Jaguars are already open (though if Rich Bisaccia gets the Raiders into the playoffs, are we 100% sure he can’t keep the job?). My crystal ball projection says there are likely to be openings in Chicago, Denver and Minnesota. If I had to bet on the situations with the Panthers and Giants, I’d say their coaches remain in place for 2022. I’m not 100% certain on either one, though, and I don’t think it would qualify as a major surprise if either or both of those organizations decided to make a change. How’s that line up with what you’re hearing/thinking, Jeremy?
Fowler: That’s about right on those five, Dan. I’m in the same spot. The feeling from early in the season was that Joe Judge would get a third season in New York, and barring an unexpected plot twist, that should remain the case. That roster is quite bad, so it’s not all on him. In Carolina, Matt Rhule appears safe based on my conversations with people around the league, but team owner David Tepper hasn’t exactly tipped his hand, either, so this one to me is more of a wild card. Some folks in the league believe Rhule wouldn’t mind going back to college. The transition hasn’t been easy. But Rhule, like Judge, has lacked enough healthy playmakers to put together a respectable offense. And Rhule’s third seasons at Temple and Baylor marked breakthroughs, so might as well see if he can follow his own formula in the NFL. In Las Vegas, Bisaccia is, at the very least, in the mix there.
Curious where you are on Denver because of the layers that deepen the intrigue: I’m told Vic Fangio’s future is solely general manager George Paton’s call, and Paton has had a positive experience working with Fangio. But is that enough to overcome three losing seasons?
Graziano: That’s the thing in Denver. I don’t think it’s that Paton doesn’t like Fangio. My sense is that maybe there’s a coach, or a list of coaching candidates, he had in mind when he took the job a year ago and he decided to give Fangio one year to show what he could do. If that’s the case, maybe the new GM wants to get on with his own vision for the future of the franchise. Paton is probably the only one who knows for sure what’s going to happen next week. I just wouldn’t be surprised to see that one open, is all.
Fowler: There’s usually one wild card. I once thought Houston would be one, but people there are giving off the vibe that David Culley is in good shape. I still have a hard time believing Seattle would part with Pete Carroll after one bad year in nearly a decade. Though Carroll probably needs to make some changes operationally.
Graziano: The people I talk to in Seattle definitely aren’t expecting seismic change there, so we will see. My understanding is Carroll is under contract for several more seasons, and I think when his time there is done, he’ll have a lot of say in that. The big question there is what happens at quarterback, whether Russell Wilson wants to leave and whether that would signal enough of a change to prompt Carroll to rethink how big a rebuild he wants to undertake. But so far, everyone has made good on their word to keep offseason issues to the side and keep their focus on the season. Which isn’t a big surprise, given the track records there.
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AIKMAN RATINGS thru Week 17
The 2021 Aikman Combined Ratings have not followed the NFL’s W-L records as much as they usually do with the 10-6 Bills remaining on top as they have for most of the season, followed by division rival New England.
Buffalo, with the NFL’s top defense in yards also is a clear leader when offensive and defensive yard rankings are combined. Buffalo and New England are also 1-2 in point differential, and both are in the top 7 in turnover differential. All reasons that help explain their high position.
On the other hand, the two number one seeds, Green Bay (clinched) and Tennessee (a wins away) are 11th and 13th respectively. Again, the Packers are 10th in point differential and the Titans are 12th. Both are near the middle of the pack in both offensive yards and defensive yards. The Packers do lead the NFL in turnover differential (Tennessee is -3), but they are near the bottom in both red zone defense and 3rd down defense which make up part of the Aikmans.
— Aikman — — NFL —
Rank W-L Team Comb Off Def Off Def Comb
1 10-6 Bills 170.5 91.4 79.1 5 1 6
2 10-6 Patriots 168.0 88.8 79.2 16 3 19
3 12-4 Buccaneers 164.2 93.1 71.1 1 14 15
4 11-5 Cowboys 161.6 89.0 72.6 2 19 21
5 11-5 Cardinals 160.4 89.9 70.5 8 10 18
6 12-4 Rams 159.9 88.0 71.9 6 16 22
7 9-7 49ers 159.6 88.7 70.9 10 4 14
8 11-5 Chiefs 159.5 91.2 68.3 3 26 29
9 9-7 Colts 156.3 88.0 68.3 15 17 32
10 8-8 Saints 155.9 80.1 75.8 29 8 37
11 13-3 Packers 155.8 89.1 66.7 12 11 23
12 9-7 Eagles 155.4 89.5 65.9 14 7 21
13 11-5 Titans 154.9 84.0 70.9 17 12 29
14 8-8 Ravens 154.0 86.1 67.9 7 25 32
15 7-9 Broncos 153.6 79.6 74.0 19 9 28
16 10-6 Bengals 153.5 86.8 66.7 9 18 27
17 6-10 Seahawks 152.7 85.4 67.3 23 30 53
18 7-9 Vikings 150.8 87.0 63.8 12 31 43
19 7-9 Chargers 149.5 90.0 59.5 4 23 27
20 7-9 Browns 148.2 82.6 65.6 18 6 24
21 8-8 Dolphins 145.9 75.5 70.4 25 15 40
22 8-7-1 Steelers 143.8 78.7 65.1 24 21 45
23 5-11 Panthers 141.9 74.1 67.8 30 2 32
24 6-10 Bears 140.7 73.9 66.8 28 5 33
25 6-10 Washington 139.1 78.4 60.7 20 27 47
26 9-7 Raiders 139.1 79.5 59.6 11 13 24
27 4-12 Giants 138.2 71.4 66.8 31 20 51
28 7-9 Falcons 134.4 74.9 59.5 26 24 50
29 4-12 Texans 133.3 71.5 61.8 32 29 61
30 4-12 Jets 133.2 76.8 56.4 21 32 53
31 2-13-1 Lions 132.8 75.5 57.3 22 28 50
32 2-14 Jaguars 129.6 71.4 58.2 27 22 49
NFL Average: 149.9 82.8 67.1
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2022 DRAFT
Who is going to be the top pick of the draft? Jeremy Fowler and Jordan Reid ofESPN.com:
We’re heading into the final week of the 2021 NFL season, and the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL draft is down to just a couple of teams. All signs are pointing toward the Jacksonville Jaguars landing the top selection for a second consecutive year, and a loss or tie on Sunday would secure it for the two-win team. (The Jags could even get it with a win if things break the right way.)
But it isn’t your standard year for the top of the draft. As of now, it looks like a non-QB will be the first prospect off the board for just the fifth time in 21 years, and it’s tough to predict what will happen at the No. 1 spot. So we called in NFL insider Jeremy Fowler and draft expert Jordan Reid to bring some clarity to the first pick. Will it be the Jaguars, or could things change up in the final week of the season? Who are the candidates to go first overall, and what makes them elite talents? Are there any other players who could rise into the mix, and why isn’t there a quarterback worthy of the top selection this year?
ESPN’s FPI gives Jacksonville an 83.1% chance to pick No. 1 overall, with a home game against the Colts remaining. No way the Jags win that, right?
Fowler: Well, I watched the Jaguars beat the Bills two months back, so I won’t take it completely off the table. But … yeah, no way. The Colts are pushing toward the playoffs, and the Jaguars are pushing toward the draft. And the Urban Meyer firing never galvanized the team, which came out flat in back-to-back losses under interim coach Darrell Bevell. Add in the fact that Jacksonville is generally bad in multiple areas of the game, and a win seems unlikely.
If the Jaguars do somehow win, what other teams are still in the running for the top pick?
Fowler: The Lions (2-13-1) are the only other contender here. Three or fewer wins is typically the sweet spot for No. 1-pick contention, so the Texans and Jets left that shameful room upon reaching four wins in Week 16. ESPN’s FPI is giving Detroit a 16.9% chance to jump the Jaguars in the final week. The Jaguars would need to win, and the Lions would need to lose to the Packers. Jacksonville would win a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker if it finishes with the same record as Detroit, which is unlikely because of the Lions’ tie.
OK, so the Jags it is. Who could they target at the top of the draft?
Reid: There is still a long way to go until April, but it looks like there won’t be a quarterback competing for the top spot in the 2022 class — though the Jaguars wouldn’t be interested in one anyway after taking Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 in 2021. That means it’s all about the edge rushers. There are clear leaders for the top two picks: Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson and Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux, who are Nos. 1 and 2 in Mel Kiper Jr.’s and Todd McShay’s rankings.
Hutchinson and Thibodeaux will be debated closely over the next three months, particularly at the NFL combine in March. The pre-draft process will do a lot to determine which pass-rusher ends up above the other. But here’s an outside possibility to watch for, particularly if the Jags do get the No. 1 pick: Alabama left tackle Evan Neal, who would provide immediate protection at either tackle spot for Lawrence.
What are people in the league saying about Thibodeaux and Hutchinson?
Fowler: It’s the classic convergence of upside and explosion vs. the sure thing with a slightly lower ceiling. One NFC exec put it this way with Hutchinson: He might not be a home run, but he’s, at worst, a stand-up double. In other words, people around the league believe Hutchinson has virtually no risk of being a bust, a clean prospect in every way. He will be productive. A team picking first or second might want that — especially Detroit, which could sell the promise of a famed Michigan product.
Thibodeaux has more flashes of brilliance, but as an AFC exec cautioned, “I watched several of his games, and I barely saw him make a play. Hutchinson at least shows up every week.” Now, some give Thibodeaux grace in this area because of injury (a left ankle sprain cost him snaps) and lofty expectations dating back to his high school days. Perhaps he paced himself a bit, to which teams are more sympathetic as players try to get to the draft fresh and healthy. An AFC exec said, “Explosion and range … I would take him. He scares you more.”
What makes each edge rusher so good?
Reid: Hutchinson had a dominant 2021 season on the way to finishing second in the Heisman Trophy race. At 6-foot-6 and 265 pounds, he is a lean athlete who operates off build-up speed. His acceleration off the line of scrimmage helps him take advantage of pass-blockers, but it’s his quick counter step back inside that has helped him rack up most of his production, including 14 sacks this season. He has been highly disruptive crossing the face of pass protectors, and he’s reliable against the run, too, as he has the length and power to close the door on perimeter runs. Hutchinson has infectious energy and goes all-out on every play.
The 6-foot-5, 258-pound Thibodeaux is a toolsy edge rusher who has shown flashes of dominance in his Oregon career. He took another step in his development in 2021, racking up seven sacks and two forced fumbles. The keyword with him is “potential,” as the feeling is that Thibodeaux still has a ways to go to reach his ceiling. He is an underrated run defender and is still learning how to use his traits to turn those flashes into more consistent production.
Thibodeaux is not as polished as Hutchinson right now, but he could finish as the better pro if he’s able to unlock all of his untapped potential.
Is there any way Jacksonville doesn’t take an edge rusher? Or could a team try to trade up to No. 1?
Fowler: Alabama’s Neal will likely be in the mix. Jacksonville’s offensive line underachieved big-time in 2021, and the Jaguars need help along both lines. Neal wouldn’t fit in, say, a San Francisco scheme that prioritizes a tackle with Trent Williams-level traits. But as a veteran NFC scout said, Neal is so long and big that NFL pass-rushers will have a hard time getting around him, making him friendly to offenses with traditional passing sets.
As for trading down, Jacksonville would love to move out for more draft assets. And several teams in the top 10 will try. But supply and demand will be an issue because of the weak quarterback class.
Yeah, so why isn’t there a QB worthy of the top pick? And if not at No. 1, when will the first QB come off the board?
Reid: It’s just one of those classes. Look at 2000, when a quarterback didn’t get drafted until No. 18 (Chad Pennington to the Jets), and 2013, when a QB didn’t get drafted until No. 16 (EJ Manuel to the Bills). Those years are rare, but there just haven’t been huge risers like Zach Wilson, Joe Burrow or Baker Mayfield, let alone signal-callers like Lawrence and Justin Fields who we knew would be drafted early. The 2022 class doesn’t have a surefire top-10 quarterback with early-starter physical traits.
And after polling scouts and executives throughout the NFL, there’s a mix of opinions on who exactly is the top quarterback in this class. Some say Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett, while others say Ole Miss’ Matt Corral. Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, Liberty’s Malik Willis and North Carolina’s Sam Howell have fans, too. The general feeling is that the first QB is likely to be drafted outside the top eight picks, which would make it the latest that the first one has been picked since that 2013 draft. Again, there’s a lot that could change over the course of the next three months, but this is not a stellar QB class at the top.
How many QBs will go in the first round of the NFL draft?
Todd McShay isn’t projecting any quarterbacks to be among the top 10 picks in the draft, but he believes there is plenty of first-round talent at the position.
Regardless of where Jacksonville picks, what’s its biggest need?
Reid: A strong argument could be made for offensive tackle, wide receiver or edge rusher. With Cam Robinson likely headed elsewhere after playing on the franchise tag, and 2019 second-round pick Jawaan Taylor’s inconsistency, Walker Little remains the only potential depth player at offensive tackle. Jacksonville needs a dependable player at the position.
And beyond the line, the pass-catching cupboard remained bare after receiver DJ Chark Jr. was placed on injured reserve. Lawrence’s top targets were Laquon Treadwell, Laviska Shenault Jr., Marvin Jones Jr. and Tavon Austin. I wouldn’t be surprised to see wide receiver atop the team’s list of needs as it searches for a true No. 1.
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