NFC EAST

PHILADELPHIA

C JASON KELCE doesn’t think “confrontational” is the right word for his reaction to the Eagles seeming to quit with QB NATE SUDFELD.  Myles Simmons ofProFootballTalk.com:

Jason Kelce made headlines a few weeks ago when he made an impassioned statement against the idea of tanking in the NFL. So after head coach Doug Pederson benched Jalen Hurts for Nate Sudfeld in Philadelphia’s Week 17 matchup with Washington, there’s been natural curiosity as to what the Eagles’ veteran center thought about the decision.

Those hoping for more fuel to the fire running back Miles Sanders started by saying “nobody liked the decision” may be a bit disappointed.

In a three-slide post on his Instagram, Kelce explained he knew Sudfeld was prepared to play at some point. But the exact game situation caught him a little off guard.

“Thought I would clear the air just to clarify and more accurately depict what happened during the game on Sunday,” Kelce began. “At the end of the third quarter, I was told on the bench that Sudfeld was going in the game. I went up to Doug and asked him if he was taking Hurts out, he said, ‘Yes, I think Nate’s earned the right to play.’ I said, ‘Everyone else is staying in?’ He said, ‘Absolutely.’ I then went to find Suddy. Started taking snaps on the sideline with him, called the other linemen over and had them listen to his snap count to make sure everyone was on the rhythm of his cadence, and then went out for the next drive.

“At no point was anything from me or anyone else confrontational. We all knew leading into the game that Sudfeld was told to be ready to play, and that Doug wanted to see what he could do in a game situation. All of us during the week leading up were excited for Nate, a guy that has been with us for four years to get an opportunity in a real game to show the world what he can do. We all have complete confidence in Nate as a player, there’s a reason he’s been here this long, and a reason the team brought him back. And that’s because we feel like Nate is a guy we can win with.

“I understand the optics of how it looked, and I’d be lying if I wasn’t a little surprised given the circumstances that the move happened when it did, but every one of us did our best, and all of us believe we can win with Nate Sudfeld. It was a difficult situation be be put into, especially when you have a 10-year veteran center who doesn’t snap the ball accurately on your second drive of the game. I know we can win games with Nate because I know Suddy can play. It didn’t work out Sunday, but as always, that’s not just on him.”

Kelce’s lengthy statement cuts against the report from Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer that “many Eagles players and coaches were shocked and outraged” by the decision to remove Hurts and insert Sudfeld. It also helps justify Pederson’s choice from a player’s perspective that hadn’t really been publicly expressed.

Regardless, the Eagles seem to have a lot to sort through as they continue into the early stages of the offseason.

WASHINGTON

Bruce Arians makes a good point about WFT.  Michael David Smith ofProFootballTalk.com:

The Washington Football Team is, at 7-9, the worst team in the playoffs. But that’s not how Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians sees it.

As Arians gets ready to coach against Washington on Saturday night, he noted that Washington has a winning record when Alex Smith is the starter, as will be the case this week.

“We’re not playing a 7-9 team. We’re playing a 4-1 team. When Alex Smith plays they’re a 4-1 team,” Arians said on ESPN. “We’re not playing Dwayne Haskins. We’re playing Alex Smith.

Arians actually understated how much better Washington’s record was with Smith during the 2020 season: Washington went 5-1 in games started by Smith, 1-5 in games started by Haskins and 1-3 in games started by Kyle Allen.

It’s unsurprising that Arians doesn’t want his team thinking of its opponent as a 7-9 team. No playoff opponent can be taken for granted.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

From a distance, the DB thinks that Buccaneers DC Todd Bowles should be a good candidate for a second head job.  The Falcons are taking a look per Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:

A year after joining forces with Tom Brady in Tampa, Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles could be dealing with Brady twice per year. Again.

Per a league source, the Falcons will interview Bowles next week for their vacant head-coaching position.

Bowles served as head coach of the Jets from 2015 through 2018, generating a record of 24-40. He went 10-6 but missed the playoffs in his first year on the job.

Bowles rejoined Bruce Arians in Tampa for the past two seasons. The team’s defense has become an underrated strength of the team, given the amount of focus on the efforts to take the offense to the next level with the addition of players like Brady, tight end Rob Gronkowski, and receiver Antonio Brown.

Here are some GM candidates that have caught the Falcons eye:

The Atlanta Falcons have interviewed two directors of college scouting, Brad Holmes of the Los Angeles Rams and Morocco Brown of the Indianapolis Colts, for their general manager position.

The Falcons announced Tuesday they conducted virtual interviews with Holmes and Brown.

Atlanta is looking to replace Thomas Dimitroff, who along with coach Dan Quinn was fired following a 0-5 start this season. Dimitroff had been the Falcons’ general manager since 2008.

Holmes has directed the Rams’ scouts for eight years.

Brown served as vice president of player personnel for the Cleveland Browns from 2014-15 and has been with the Colts for five seasons. Brown also is the former director of player personnel for Washington (2008-13) and director of pro personnel for the Chicago Bears (2001-07).

The Falcons previously interviewed former Houston Texans GM Rick Smith and Atlanta’s director of college scouting, Anthony Robinson, for the GM position.

CAROLINA

RB CHRISTIAN McCAFFERY is starting to think he has reached the less may be better than more time for training.  Nick Shook of NFL.com:

Matt Rhule “can’t wait to attack” his second NFL season, starting with offseason work, but it might be wise to keep his star running back from unleashing his fury on his own spring training.

Christian McCaffrey admitted as much Monday following the conclusion of a season in which the runner played in a grand total of three games. An early ankle injury landed McCaffrey on injured reserve, but he was able to return from it in Week 9, suffering a shoulder injury in Carolina’s game against Kansas City. And just before McCaffrey was set to return again, he sustained a quadriceps injury that ultimately kept him out for the remainder of the season.

Because of this series of ailments, McCaffrey has been forced to reevaluate how he goes about preparing for a season. Less, in fact, may be more for a running back accustomed to doing just about everything for his team — including training relentlessly in the offseason.

“Every year that’s kind of the challenge is to figure out exactly what’s the perfect way to create a machine going into the season,” McCaffrey said, via the team’s official website. “That’s going to be my goal this offseason, starting now, is to prepare the best way possible. Sometimes that means resting, and sometimes it means not going out and training.

“I can be my own worst enemy sometimes, and that’s one thing I’ve learned too is, just be healthy. Too much is not always good.”

NFC WEST

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Sean McVay will keep the Seahawks and the rest of the world guessing about Saturday’s quarterback.  Lindsey Thiry of ESPN.com:

Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay has no intention of revealing before kickoff whether Jared Goff or John Wolford will start at quarterback in Saturday’s wild-card playoff game at the Seattle Seahawks.

“I’m not gonna make an announcement on who is starting and who is not,” McVay said tersely during a videoconference with reporters on Tuesday. “I’m not going to answer that question this week.”

McVay did say he anticipates wide receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive lineman Michael Brockers to be activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list ahead of Saturday and that there’s a good chance left tackle Andrew Whitworth — who tore his MCL and posterior cruciate ligament in Week 10 — will be activated from injured reserve.

As the Rams prepare for their third playoff appearance in four seasons, Goff is continuing to recover from surgery on his throwing-hand thumb that he underwent a day after a Week 16 loss to the division-champion Seahawks at Lumen Field.

In the immediate aftermath of Goff’s surgery, McVay expressed confidence that the procedure would allow him to return for the playoffs; on Tuesday, McVay amended that statement.

“What I probably should have said is there’s a possibility that he could be ready to go as early as if we were able to make the playoffs,” McVay said. “Didn’t know the totality of what the rehab entailed.”

McVay said Goff has “thrown a couple balls” but was unable to provide an update on whether the quarterback has taken any snaps.

“He’s coming along well,” McVay said. “He did just have surgery pretty recently, so I know he’s doing everything in his power to get himself ready to go.”

When asked if he had a timetable to determine if Goff could play, McVay quipped: “Yeah, Saturday at 1:39.”

Kickoff is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. PT.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

Will the third time be the charm for QB LAMAR JACKSON in his bid for a postseason win?  Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com:

– From the blink-and-he’s-gone scrambles to the countless hugs, Lamar Jackson is playing as loose, confident and enthused as ever heading into a postseason that can go a long way in determining his national perception as a quarterback.

Jackson shook off the weight of expectations that come with being the reigning NFL MVP, as well as a nasty bout with COVID-19, to carry the Baltimore Ravens to five straight victories and back to the playoffs. He is smiling and embracing teammates again (he celebrated the comeback win in Cleveland by lifting up kicker Justin Tucker in a bear hug). He is running circles around defenses again. And, as Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman recently put it, Jackson is the game’s best player again.

But all the talk leading up to Sunday’s AFC wild-card game at the Tennessee Titans (1:05 p.m. ET, ESPN) won’t center on how Jackson saved the Ravens’ season or how he has won 30 games faster than any quarterback in NFL history. The national spotlight falls on the NFL’s most elusive player trying to get his hands on what has slipped through his grasp — a postseason victory.

Jackson is 0-2 in the playoffs, totaling more turnovers (five) than touchdowns (three). He is trying to avoid becoming the second quarterback in the Super Bowl era to lose playoff openers in his first three seasons (Andy Dalton is the only one).

In talking with those close to Jackson, his postseason struggles don’t place any additional pressure on him this week.

“It’s not a cop-out answer: He’s going to think about beating the team we’re playing,” Ravens quarterbacks coach James Urban said. “He is very single-minded. He has this unique ability to do that in a situation. You’ve seen it. ‘Hey, Coach, let’s run it. Let’s go for it.’ It’s that determination in the moment.”

After the divisional playoff loss to the Tennessee Titans last year, Lamar Jackson took the defeat hard, as if he had let the organization down. Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Jackson’s playoff rematch with the Titans on Sunday comes one year after a surprising 28-12 loss to Tennessee in the divisional round, which took a toll on him emotionally. Jackson didn’t leave his room in the days following the defeat. He was angry and depressed.

Some believe he has never really moved past it, but it’s not to the point where he’s bent on revenge. From Jackson’s viewpoint, he has unfinished business. His goal — his obsession, others have said — is to repay Baltimore with a Lombardi trophy for selecting him after the rest of the league passed on him in the first round of the 2018 draft.

“I won’t say he’s sitting there like, ‘Man, I gotta get the Tennessee Titans back,'” said Joshua Harris, Jackson’s personal quarterback tutor. “It’s just the fact of, ‘I didn’t accomplish my goal. And my goal has always been to win the Super Bowl.’ That’s on his mind. That’s his constant motivation, but not in specifics like, ‘I lost in the playoffs again.’ He doesn’t think that way.”

Steve Young, a Hall of Fame quarterback and ESPN analyst, doesn’t believe the Ravens’ playoff failures should fall squarely on Jackson’s shoulders. This summer, Young spoke to Titans coach Mike Vrabel, who acknowledged his team can stop a high-level running game like Baltimore’s by committing enough resources to do so. Vrabel, though, told Young he doesn’t have a defense for Jackson’s skill set combined with an advanced passing attack.

CLEVELAND

The Browns are battling a Covid outbreak at the worst possible time.

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Last week, when it appeared that the Cleveland Browns were experiencing an outbreak of COVID-19, the NFL said that the sharp uptick in infections resulted from community spread.

The NFL still believes that’s the case.

“While we are continuing to monitor, there’s been no indication of a spread among the team facility,” NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy told PFT via email this morning. “This is based on contact tracing and also genomic sequencing that has been conducted to date.”

It’s an important distinction because the Sunday night playoff game between Cleveland and Pittsburgh will be delayed only if the league believes that the Browns are experiencing an uncontained outbreak of the virus. Absent such proof, the Browns will be expected to proceed, regardless of any players or coaches who may test positive between now and Sunday.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

Surprise!  Not really.

Nick Ceserio, a longtime Patriots operative, had been linked to the Houston GM job for a long time thanks to the presumed influence of his buddy Jack Easterby.

Easterby was said to be distancing himself from the “search” and a big search committee was formed.  But now the Texans are hiring Cesario.  Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com:

The Houston Texans are hiring longtime New England Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio as their next general manager, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Tuesday.

Caserio was in Houston to interview with the team earlier in the day. He was expected to fly back home to New England on Tuesday night, a source said.

Caserio, 45, has served as Patriots director of player personnel since 2008 and works alongside coach Bill Belichick as the highest-ranked staffer in the personnel department. Since Caserio earned that role, New England has won three Super Bowls.

This was the second time the Texans have requested to speak with Caserio. In 2019, after Houston fired general manager Brian Gaine, Houston requested to interview Caserio. After the Patriots filed tampering charges, Texans CEO Cal McNair said Houston would no longer pursue him.

Caserio is the second former Patriots executive to join the Texans’ front office. Jack Easterby, Houston’s executive vice president of football operations, spent six seasons as the Patriots’ character coach before he was hired by Houston in 2019.

In addition, Bill O’Brien, who was fired in October as head coach and general manager, spent five seasons as an offensive coach in New England, and Romeo Crennel, who took over for O’Brien as interim head coach, was the Pats’ defensive coordinator from 2001 through 2004.

Earlier this week, Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson offered a blunt assessment when asked what he’s looking for in a new head coach, saying, “We just need a whole culture shift.” He also said the organization as a whole needs to be on the same page: “There’s too many different minds, too many different ideas and too many people thinking they have this power, and it’s not like that.”

Texans wide receiver Brandin Cooks, who played for the Patriots in 2017, described Caserio as “unbelievable.”

“He’s a special dude,” Cooks said. “Playing with him in New England for that year — just the guy that he is, there’s no ego. He’s all about helping the team in whatever he can.”

Along with Caserio, the Texans interviewed ESPN analyst and former front-office executive Louis Riddick, Seattle Seahawks vice president of player personnel Trent Kirchner, Pittsburgh Steelers vice president of football and business administration Omar Khan and their own director of player personnel, Matt Bazirgan.

After the Texans fired Gaine in June 2019, McNair ultimately elected not to hire a general manager, giving former head coach O’Brien more say over personnel matters. The following January, McNair promoted O’Brien to general manager.

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com with more:

Reactions are trickling in following the news that the Texans will make Patriots V.P. of player personnel Nick Caserio the team’s next General Manager. The common thread consists of two messages.

First, Easterby wins. As in executive V.P. of football operations Jack Easterby. Caserio is an Easterby guy, who presumably will defer to whatever authority Easterby will have.

Second, Easterby really wins. As reported by Mike Garafolo of NFL Media, the Korn Ferry search firm identified five candidates for the job: Texans director of player personnel Matt Bazirgan, Seahawks V.P. of player personnel Trent Kirchner, Steelers V.P. of football and business administration Omar Khan, Louis Riddick, and Ravens director of football research Scott Cohen. Korn Ferry did not include Caserio on its list of finalists.

But Caserio got the job, because that’s who Easterby wanted — and Easterby won the power struggle with Korn Ferry. (Korn Ferry presumably still gets paid its six-figure fee for creating a menu from which the Texans ultimately didn’t select.)

“Easterby is a wizard,” Garafolo declares.

Others in league circles would use other terms to describe Easterby. In the hiring of a G.M., however, Easterby got the guy he tried to get in 2019. Which, as one league source observed, allows Easterby to continue to pull the strings without the accountability that goes with being the G.M.

Next, the question becomes whether Easterby will get his preferred coach. Some wonder whether it will be Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who spurned the Colts three years ago and who has gotten less interest in recent hiring cycles.

The first question is whether McDaniels on Korn Ferry’s list. If not, McDaniels could be the man for the job.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

Keith Van Valkenberg of ESPN.com with a long piece on how we all underestimated QB JOSH ALLEN:

WHEN WAS THE exact moment you realized Josh Allen had made you look like a fool? How many “Are you bleeping serious?” throws did he have to make for you to question your entire belief system when it comes to predicting the success of an NFL quarterback? Because, dear reader, most of us did not arrive at this moment easily.

It took some time, and some serious self-reflection, for me to willingly don this clown suit that Allen is making me wear. But I come in peace, on the brink of the NFL playoffs, ready to own my shame.

This is a safe space, if you are ready to do the same. Because there are plenty of us out there. Football Outsiders called him a “parody of an NFL prospect” and said “every piece of empirical evidence we have on Allen leads to him being a failure.” Troy Aikman said it would be hard to imagine him improving his accuracy, that he’d never seen it in 17 years of studying the game. Pro Football Focus’ lead analyst mocked him for missing the net in drills at the Senior Bowl. An editor from NBC’s ProFootballTalk joked that Roger Staubach was more accurate, even at age 76. Even ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky expressed skepticism that Allen would be able to process things quickly enough after the snap to ever evolve into a franchise quarterback.

I never wrote a lengthy opus laying out my belief that the Bills’ third-year quarterback would be an epic bust, but I believed it deep inside my football soul. I LOLed when I saw his numbers at Wyoming. (Because, c’mon, you’re going to star in the NFL when you couldn’t even dominate the Mountain West?) I chuckled when he was drafted ahead of Lamar Jackson. (Maybe he can play tight end when this doesn’t work out, I ribbed my Bills-supporting friends, parroting the suggestion that Jackson might have to switch positions.) I rolled my eyes every time Allen was held up as some mythical working-class embodiment of western New York ethos (he’s from California!). Allen’s goofy grin, his awkward throwing mechanics, his clueless teenage naivete (and that’s a generous reading) when it came to writing offensive things on Twitter — none of it screamed “franchise quarterback.”

And his first two years in the NFL (league lows in completion percentage; 25th in QBR) did little to convince me otherwise. So this season, even after he roasted the Dolphins for 415 yards and four touchdowns in a 31-28 win in Week 2, there was a (large) part of me that still wasn’t quite ready to concede that Allen could, in fact, be a generational talent.

Until what started as a hot streak simply became Allen’s new normal. After watching him throw for 415 yards and three touchdowns against the Seahawks in a Week 9 win — while completing 82% of his passes — I began to wonder what alternate universe I’d been teleported into. This was a guy, after all, who completed only 49% of his passes at juco Reedley College and only 56% of his throws at Wyoming. As an NFL rookie, he actually got worse, completing 53%.

But this year, Allen connected on 69.2% of his passes, the 25th-best single season in NFL history, on his way to setting a franchise record for passing yards. You know who has never had a season in which he completed at least 69.2% of his passes? Tom Brady. Neither has Peyton Manning. The only players ahead of Allen (81.7) in QBR this year? Aaron Rodgers (84.4) and Patrick Mahomes (82.9).

So as the Bills prepare to host their first playoff game since 1996 and with Allen gaining legit MVP buzz, I decided to embark on a fact-finding mission to at least begin to grasp how I — and, in my defense, so many others — whiffed so badly in the assessment of Allen. Was it an overreliance on analytics? Was it just Power 5 football-inspired arrogance? Or is he proof that you can, in fact, improve your throwing accuracy, debunking the long-held conventional NFL wisdom that it’s mostly innate?

How on earth did the quarterbacking equivalent of scrawny Steve Rogers become, over the course of three years, Buffalo’s Captain America?

JORDAN PALMER WANTS me — and, by proxy, you — to understand something: The idea that you can’t improve a quarterback’s accuracy through coaching is, well, bogus.

Palmer played four seasons in the NFL, threw just 18 career passes and, until recently, was primarily known as Carson Palmer’s younger, less talented brother. But after his playing career ended in 2014, he gradually reinvented himself as an offseason passing guru for young quarterbacks, Allen among them. They’ve spent the past three years working together, Allen throwing thousands of passes as Palmer has looked on, essentially a California-based Yoda running his own Jedi academy. (Joe Burrow and Sam Darnold also count Palmer as a mentor.)

The proof is in the numbers: After ranking last in the NFL in completion percentage in his first two seasons (55.8% in 2019), Allen this year has jumped into the top five, alongside quarterbacks like Rodgers, Drew Brees and Deshaun Watson. He’s just the fourth quarterback in the past 20 years to increase his completion percentage at least 10 percentage points from one season to the next.

Palmer is quick to deflect credit for Allen’s dramatic improvement, saying the coaches on Buffalo’s staff, like offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and quarterback coach Ken Dorsey, deserve most of the praise. But Palmer will also confess that he saw the potential for a huge leap for Allen during the unusual offseason.

“Certainly, I expected big things this year,” Palmer says. “But even I’m pleasantly surprised by just how consistent he is and by the amount of absolute dimes he’s throwing. He’ll have at least two or three throws a game where, if he’s off just a little bit, it’s going the other way. But he’s making them practically every time.”

The potential for Allen to turn his powerful shoulder cannon into an accurate one was always there, Palmer says, but the key to unlocking it was actually in his feet, not his upper body. “He drastically changed his base that he played with,” Palmer says. “He used to bounce up and down on his toes, with a narrow base, which would cause him to over-stride when he’d go to throw. There is a cascading effect once you over-stride. Now he’s learned to play with a much better base. When you play with all your cleats on the ground, you create more energy and you have more balance.”

In this era, we have a much better grasp of how the kinematic chain works, thanks to advances in technology. Sure, a grizzled quarterback guru with 20 years of experience might be able to watch offseason workouts and make subtle tweaks in a quarterback’s delivery, but these days that same coach could also look down at his iPad and read — thanks to a microchip implanted inside the football — the velocity, the spin rate and integrity of a spiral in seconds.

“Ball don’t lie,” Palmer says. “We also use a 4D, high-speed, motion capture camera system called Biometrek. It’s a startup out here in California. They have 16 high-speed cameras and we’ll throw in their [studio], then you use a computer to turn your guy into a little stick figure. We use that to look at weight distribution, mass and the kinematic sequence, which is the hip going first, then the shoulder and ultimately the arm firing. That was the biggest thing for Josh. Is his first movement going down into the ground and loading? Or was his first movement just at the target? The difference between bad and great, especially in a workout setting, is minor. But Josh is really, really athletic, and that’s an underrated part of this. It allows him to make permanent changes really quickly.”

Palmer is a bit hesitant to talk about the other aspect he thinks spurred Allen’s progress this year, because he doesn’t want it to come across as callous, but there is no doubt in his mind that the COVID-19 travel restrictions forced his clients (Allen among them) to live in a football bubble they’ll never experience again. Palmer had to cancel nearly all of his passing camps for high school kids around the country, as well as a three-week stint in Germany. He poured all his focus into trying to better understand biomechanics and the kinematic sequence, knowing his players had similar free time.

“Think about it like this,” Palmer says. “They didn’t go to OTAs, which are a waste of time for a lot of guys. If you’re someone like Drew Brees, you’re actually better off being at home with your trainer. Well, they also didn’t have any weddings to attend. They didn’t have any charity golf tournaments. Nobody shot commercials. Nobody went out and did a boys weekend in Cabo or Vegas, which a lot of guys do three weekends a month. Nobody did any of that s— because of COVID.”

NOT EVERYONE GOT it wrong when it comes to Allen, of course. Some people have been loud and proud in their defense of Allen, even dating back to the NFL draft, and now they’re enjoying a bit of a victory lap. In the spirit of eating crow, I decided to call arguably the most vocal Allen defender — my ESPN colleague Mel Kiper Jr., who ranked Allen the top QB in the class all the way through draft day — and let him dunk on me for 10 consecutive minutes.

“His analytics weren’t to the level that you want,” Kiper says. “But that’s why I call them ana-lie-tics. To me, you have to look deeper. It’s why I call it lazy scouting. I’ve always used analytics, but they’re a tool.”

So why did so many of us get hung up on Allen’s flaws when Kiper couldn’t help but be swayed by his strengths? For one, most of us weren’t exactly grinding over his third-quarter tape against Gardner-Webb or Utah State — or even noticing that the Cowboys had to play Iowa and Oregon (Allen’s worst game by a wide margin, in which he completed just nine of 24 passes) early in the season.

“A lot of what happened in games is he was trying to make something happen, down late in games,” Kiper says. “Yes, he got sloppy with his mechanics, but he also didn’t take the easy 5-yard throws that were going to do nothing for them.”

We also didn’t know that Allen was missing four NFL-caliber players who’d just graduated the year before. They might not have been first-round picks, but in the Mountain West, blue-chip talent doesn’t arrive with every recruiting class the way it does in the SEC.

Late in the year, Allen hurt his shoulder and had to miss two games against Mountain West opponents, missing an opportunity to pad his stats a bit. Despite knowing he was likely to be a first-round pick, Allen insisted on returning for Wyoming’s bowl game against Central Michigan in the Idaho Potato Bowl. In his best game of the season by ESPN’s QBR (89.8), he threw three touchdowns and led his team to a victory.

“He didn’t quit on his team, he didn’t give up on the year,” Kiper says. “Remember, nobody else offered him a scholarship. So he felt a sense of loyalty to Wyoming and his teammates. And you see that same thing now in Buffalo. Those guys in that locker room love him. He inspires that kind of loyalty.”

Kiper is the first to acknowledge that one of the biggest factors in a player’s development is the stability of the franchise that ends up drafting him, yet it’s still something we don’t weigh heavily enough. Allen was all over draft boards in 2018, when four quarterbacks were taken in the first 10 picks. What if he’d been drafted by Cleveland at No. 1 (or No. 4) and was coached by Hue Jackson and Freddie Kitchens? What if he’d gone to the Jets at No. 3 and been tutored by Todd Bowles and Adam Gase? Would Allen have turned those franchises around, saved those coaches their jobs? Or would the steady drumbeat of mismanagement and drama in those franchises have overwhelmed his development?

“A lot of credit in this should go to [offensive coordinator] Brian Daboll,” Kiper says. “Brian has given Josh the confidence, the latitude to go out and run the team the way he see it in conjunction with the plays he’s calling. He’s worked to develop Josh into a quarterback who can take shots deep but also be patient enough to keep the chains moving. I think Daboll is going to get a head-coaching job because of what he’s done with Josh, and the whole town of Buffalo is made for Josh.”

BRIAN DABOLL DOESN’T mince words when it comes to Josh Allen.

He loves him. Like, he really loves him.

It’s not the chummy, headbutt-your-bro and slap-him-on-the-rear-right-before-battle kind of love, the type of thing that typically passes for friendship and intimacy in the strange world of football.

It’s more like this: When Allen’s grandmother died in November, right before Buffalo’s game against the Seahawks, he was emotionally wrecked. He decided to play anyway. After the game, arguably the best performance of his career, he stumbled into the locker room, eager to find Daboll. When he finally did, he fell into Daboll’s arms. They both sobbed.

So, that kind of love. Fair to say it runs a little deeper than this guy might get me my first head-coaching job.

“I know his parents and his family. I know how he was raised, and you just can’t help but root for him,” Daboll tells me, late in the season, when I call to ask him if he could explain how he and Allen became closer than just coworkers. “We’ve spent a lot of time together the last three years, and he means much more to me than just a quarterback and a player. The relationship we’ve built is something special, and it always will be. I just care about him as a person. I feel very fortunate to coach him but also to have him as a friend.”

Daboll says that throughout the scouting process, he never bought into the idea that Allen wasn’t accurate. Sure, his numbers at Wyoming might have suggested as much, but his workouts with the Bills didn’t. When they asked him to make throws, he delivered the football (in general) where it was supposed to go. There were times when he needed to understand when to use zip and when to use touch, but he’s hardly the first quarterback to possess an arm that strong. (John Elway was plagued by that conundrum for years.) Over three years with Daboll and a relatively consistent stable of receivers with Buffalo, Allen has learned when to dial it back and when to throw it hard enough to knock someone’s teeth out.

“That’s a narrative that was out there, but there is a difference between completion percentage and accuracy,” Daboll says.

The Bills — with Allen constantly pressing his foot on the accelerator — have evolved into one of the NFL’s most aggressive, entertaining teams. They throw 64% of the time on first down, according to ESPN Stats & Information, the highest rate of any winning team in the past 20 years. They’ve lined up with four wide receivers 155 times this year, the second-highest total in the league. On 43% of their plays, the Bills put someone in pre-snap motion, a stat that doesn’t seem significant until you realize that’s up from 25% in 2019, when they ranked 31st in the NFL.

This year, the Bills added Stefon Diggs (NFL-high 127 receptions and 1,535 yards), but Allen is distributing the ball to everyone. Thirteen different Bills caught a touchdown pass this year, tying an NFL record. Like Diggs, Cole Beasley — in his ninth year in the league — set career highs in receptions (82) and yards (967). It’s only the second time in franchise history that two receivers topped 80 receptions for the season.

“I told Josh I think he just made three of the best throws I’d ever seen in my life,” Beasley told me after the Bills’ 49-19 Week 15 win over Denver. “When you’re playing with a guy like that, it drives you to get open every play because you know he’s going to find you.”

Allen has also turned Daboll into one of the league’s most sought-after head-coaching candidates, a development that’s almost unthinkable considering Daboll’s middling results in three previous stints as an offensive coordinator with the Browns, Dolphins and Chiefs. It wasn’t anyone’s idea of a dream pairing back in 2018, but the closer they became, the more it clicked.

“From his first year to his second year, I think Josh had nine new guys starting around him,” Daboll says. “We didn’t add a ton this year, other than [Diggs]. But we’re constantly evolving the offense to fit what he does best and what he feels most comfortable with. We tailor everything to Josh. And to be fair, he’s been fortunate to have the same system and grow in that same system for three years. That’s not always the case in this league. It takes a village to develop a young quarterback, but it starts with him.”

As for the idea — repeated often the past three years — that Allen means something more to the city of Buffalo than just a quarterback, I couldn’t resist asking Daboll, someone who grew up in western New York and went to high school just outside Buffalo, about it. A lot of NFL players privately view Buffalo as something akin to a prison sentence in Siberia, yet Allen has gleefully embraced his existence there. His teammates seem to love him, and he’s helped raise over $1 million for Oishei Children’s Hospital in Buffalo.

“I’ll take my coach hat off for a second and put my fan hat on, if that’s OK,” Daboll says. “I’m sure glad we got him. Not just for his production, but what an unbelievable role model he is off the field. He cherishes that aspect. This dude is Buffalo. He’s made for this spot.”

MIAMI

There are those less than totally impressed with what they’ve seen so far from QB TUA TAGOVAILOA, but the Dolphins are saying they have no doubts.  Nick Shook ofNFL.com:

For those questioning the Dolphins’ future under center, Chris Grier and Brian Flores have a message for you: Don’t waste your time.

The Dolphins’ general manager and head coach held a joint press conference Tuesday, taking questions from reporters on the state of the franchise following its season-ending, blowout loss to Buffalo that cost Miami a playoff berth. Despite that disappointment, the two were upbeat and optimistic about the organization’s future following an unexpected 10-6 finish to 2020 — starting with Tua Tagovailoa.

“I want to be clear. Tua is our starter,” Grier said, via The Athletic’s Josh Tolentino. “We’re very happy with his development so far.”

Tagovailoa was essentially promoted to starter in the middle of the season even while veteran starter Ryan Fitzpatrick was putting together a solid season, expediting the succession process and giving the rookie plenty of live reps. The results were mixed, with a late-season stretch of struggles ultimately costing the Dolphins a postseason berth.

The fault wasn’t Tagovailoa’s alone, of course, but the Dolphins needed Fitzpatrick to rescue them from the clutches of defeat in Week 16 to give them a win-and-in scenario in Week 17. With Fitzpatrick out for that game against the Bills, Tagovailoa was their only option. He wasn’t able to lift Miami out of a 28-6 deficit, throwing three interceptions, with one returned for a score to make a two-score game a 35-13 deficit. The Dolphins ultimately fell 56-26, ending their season on a very low note after showing plenty of promise for the majority of the campaign.

Still, throughout the season Tagovailoa showed signs of his potential throughout the season that led the Dolphins to select him with the fifth-overall pick of the 2020 draft. The rookie seemed to learn from his mistakes in real time, making in-game adjustments to overcome early errors and help Miami secure multiple victories. With Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback, Miami won six of nine games, and Tagovailoa posted a passer rating of 87.1.

He’ll need to improve in year two, of course, a process that can be aided by further understanding Chan Gailey’s offense. Flores said he expects everyone on his coaching staff to return in 2021, including Gailey, who some thought might be on his way out after Miami finished 22nd in yards per game and 15th in scoring.

“The communication improves just over time,” Flores said of Tagovailoa’s and Gailey’s on-field relationship. “I think that’s the case with any position. Offense, defense, special teams. People are more comfortable as they gain experience. It’s like any relationship. It improves with time. That’s the vision right now.”

After a couple of days of rumors, OC Chan Gailey is indeed off the coaching staff.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

The Miami Dolphins will have a new offensive coordinator for the fifth straight year, and third under Brian Flores.

The team announced Wednesday that OC Chan Gailey has resigned.

“I want to thank Chan for all of his hard work and dedication in what was a unique year,” Flores said in a statement. “He played an important role on the staff and in the development of our young roster. I wish him all the best.”

The news came a day after Flores said he expected all his assistants to return in 2021. Gailey’s resignation throws a wrench into the plan

Gailey came out of a four-year retirement to join the Dolphins this season. The 69-year-old returned to coaching in part to re-join Ryan Fitzpatrick, whom he’d been with in his previous five years as an OC. With Miami fully moving forward with Tua Tagovailoa in the future, Gailey will also move on.

Down the stretch of the season, the Dolphins offense struggled to move the ball with the rookie quarterback at the helm, including the Week 17 blowout loss to Buffalo that kept Miami out of the playoffs. Gailey was criticized at times for seemingly running two offenses, one with Tua and another once Fitzpatrick took over late in a miraculous Week 16 comeback win over the Raiders.

The 2020 season culminated Gailey’s 21st as an NFL coach and his second tenure with the Dolphins. Gailey also served as the Fins OC from 2000-2001.

Gailey’s decision to resign sends Flores back to the drawing board. The Dolphins coach fired former OC Chad O’Shea after one season last year.

The next hire will need to be a coordinator who can best groom Tagovailoa to be the long-term signal-caller and face of the franchise Miami has been searching for since Dan Marino retired.

THIS AND THAT

COACHING CAROUSEL

Jordan Dajani of CBSSports.com on the state of the head coaching searches:

A total of six NFL teams will be looking for new head coaches this offseason, and there are plenty of interesting candidates to choose from. There are proven veterans such as Marvin Lewis and Jim Caldwell who know how to turn franchises around, while there are also offensive wunderkinds who could end up securing a huge promotion, such as Joe Brady of the Carolina Panthers. Then there are the favorites, who are almost guaranteed to find a head coaching job this offseason, including the likes of Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh and Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll.

While there are dozens of coaching candidates who will get chances to wow their potential future employers during interviews, which prospects are considered the best replacements for each team? Which assistant coaches are topping these six teams’ big boards? Below, we will take a shot at identifying each team’s top three coaching candidates.

Houston Texans

Many believe the Texans job is the least attractive one on the market. Houston has some issues with cap space (-$17,739,400 according to Over The Cap), but more importantly, they don’t have any first- or second-round picks! It’s hard to rebuild a team without high draft picks, and even harder if you don’t have the cap space to splurge in free agency. So, who should the Texans be targeting as their next head coach? An offensive-minded prospect to help Deshaun Watson continue to develop? A defensive-minded coach to help fix a sorry unit that allowed a league-high 160.3 rushing yards per game in 2020? On top of these issues, is it better to hire someone who has had success in establishing a culture, or taking a flier on a young candidate who could end up becoming the best coach in franchise history?

Top candidates: 1. Brian Daboll 2. Jim Caldwell 3. Joe Brady

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are in a better situation with their 2021 draft picks than the Texans, but in a worse spot when it comes to cap space. Over The Cap has them at -$24,394,641, which is the third-worst cap situation in the league. They also have an aging quarterback in Matt Ryan, who has a dead-cap hit of nearly $50 million next season that makes him virtually impossible to trade. This is going to be an important hire for the Falcons, as they need someone who can be flexible with the kind of roster they inherit in 2021, but also keep an eye on the future. They need to have a clear plan when it comes to ushering in a new era of Falcons football.

Top candidates: 1. Eric Bieniemy 2. Robert Saleh 3. Raheem Morris

Detroit Lions

The main question when it comes to the Lions is what to do with quarterback Matthew Stafford. He is signed through 2022, but it’s possible Detroit could embrace a full rebuild and look for a new signal-caller this offseason. Apart from that, this coach has to have an idea of how to fix the Lions defense, which was statistically the worst in the league this season. While hiring a defensive-minded head coach didn’t work last time, it’s possible they could try again. I like Saleh in this spot because the 49ers defense was fifth in yards allowed per game this year, and ranked second last year when they made it to Super Bowl LIV.  Plus, with how animated he gets on the sideline, he just looks like a coach that can establish a successful culture.

Top candidates: 1. Robert Saleh 2. Eric Bieniemy 3. Marvin Lewis

New York Jets

That No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft isn’t looking so bad ever since Justin Fields dropped 385 passing yards and six touchdowns on the Clemson Tigers last week, but it’s also possible the team decides to move forward with Sam Darnold under center. The Jets netted some draft picks thanks to the Jamal Adams trade and also have the second-most cap space. I would guess that the Jets look to hire an offensive-minded coach, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they buy into a defensive-minded prospect who is clear and articulate with the kind of culture he wants to implement like a Matt Eberflus or Saleh. Dare I say the Jets have somewhat of a pretty attractive job opening right now?

Top candidates: 1. Eric Bieniemy 2. Matt Eberflus 3. Arthur Smith

Jacksonville Jaguars

It doesn’t matter if the Jaguars go with a coach who is known for their defense or offense, they are likely going to draft former Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 overall pick. There is a candidate who could shake up mock drafts, however, and that’s former Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer. Recent reports indicate Jacksonville is interested in him, and if this does come to fruition, one has to wonder if he would take Fields out of Ohio State over Lawrence. Unlikely, but not impossible. Considering his connections to the state of Florida from his time leading the Gators to two national championships in the early 2000s, it makes sense North Florida would be an intriguing landing spot for Meyer. Additionally, the Jaguars enter this offseason with the most cap space in the NFL.

Top candidates: 1. Urban Meyer 2. Robert Saleh 3. Eric Bieniemy

Los Angeles Chargers

I have to admit I was a bit surprised that the Chargers decided to part ways with Anthony Lynn, especially considering that he had to deal with so many injuries over the past few years. But, the bottom line is that this Chargers job is now available, and boy is it an attractive one. We learned that they have their quarterback of the future in Justin Herbert, who has talented receivers on the outside to throw to such as Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. The Chargers also have an impressive defense when they are at full health, as Joey Bosa, Derwin James and Kenneth Murray all have star potential. On Tuesday, Bruce Feldman of The Athletic reported that the Chargers have interest in Meyer, so you have to imagine he would be No. 1 on their coaching big board.

Top candidates: 1. Urban Meyer 2. Brian Daboll 3. Jason Garrett