The Daily Briefing Wednesday, July 13, 2022

AROUND THE NFL

Le’Veon Bell said Tuesday that he won’t be playing in the NFL this season as he shifts his focus to boxing.

The running back made the announcement at a news conference held by Social Gloves to promote his upcoming fight against fellow star running back Adrian Peterson at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on July 30.

“Boxing is something that, you know, they always say it’s something you can’t play boxing. Last year, I almost sat out the whole year to try to focus on boxing because I kind of knew that was what I wanted to transition to. This year, I know I’m not going to be playing this year because I want to focus on boxing,” the 30-year-old Bell said.

The three-time Pro Bowl selection made it clear this isn’t a “one-off” fight for him.

“This is, I guess like my introduction to kind of show what I’ll be doing and how I’ll be going about myself. Just an intro,” he said.

Peterson, who appeared at the news conference via a video feed, said he can see boxing in his future but appeared to leave his options open about continuing his NFL career.

“This is something that I definitely can see myself doing going forward as well, just depending on how things kind of play out for me,” Peterson, 37, said.

The former MVP and seven-time Pro Bowl selection, who is fifth on the NFL’s all-time rushing list with 14,918 yards, said there is a ring at his gym in Houston.

“We have a lot of guys sparring all the time, and I’ve had the opportunity in the past to get in there with those guys a couple times and here recently, obviously, getting ready for the fight. I just been kind of grinding, so I might see this continue to do something going forward,” Peterson said. “So, even after this fight, I will still be on my same routine, waiting for that next opportunity to present itself.”

Bell’s last Pro Bowl season was in 2017, when he rushed for 1,291 yards and nine touchdowns for the Pittsburgh Steelers. After holding out the entire 2018 season in a contract dispute with the Steelers, he signed as a free agent with the New York Jets in 2019 only to be released by the team midway through the following season. He had 429 rushing yards for four different teams the past two seasons.

WASHINGTON

Owner Dan Snyder offered House Democrats two dates on which he would voluntarily answer their questions.  Not good enough.  John Keim of ESPN.com on the back-and-forth:

The House Committee on Oversight and Reform accepted Washington Commanders owner Dan Snyder’s offer to testify via video conference on July 28, but said he could not do it voluntarily as his attorney had requested.

In a letter Tuesday from Chairwoman Carolyn Maloney (D-New York) to Snyder’s attorney, Karen Patton Seymour, the committee said it would accept his testimony only under a subpoena. The committee reissued a subpoena for Snyder and gave his attorney a noon deadline on Wednesday to accept.

“Mr. Snyder’s attorneys are reviewing the Committee’s letter to determine if their due process concerns, including the circumstances of Mr. Snyder’s appearance, have adequately been addressed,” a spokesperson for Snyder said Tuesday.

The committee had first issued a subpoena on June 24 for a deposition six days later, but that subpoena was not accepted.

Maloney wrote that the committee wants Snyder to testify under a subpoena to ensure that his “testimony will be full and complete and will not be restricted in the way it would be if the deposition were conducted voluntarily.”

Maloney also cited Snyder’s “month-long refusal” to cooperate with the committee as another factor in wanting him to appear via subpoena.

Dave Rapallo, Georgetown University’s Federal Legislation Clinic director and the Democratic staff director of the House Committee on Oversight and Reform from 2011 to 2021, said last week that there’s an important difference between testifying voluntarily as opposed to being subpoenaed.

“If you’re under subpoena, you have to answer the question posed,” Rapallo said. “If it’s voluntary, and you’re not under subpoena, you don’t.”

If Snyder testified voluntarily, Rapallo said, he could claim he can’t answer because of nondisclosure agreements. Maloney said in the letter “Mr. Snyder has a troubling history of using NDAs to cover up workplace misconduct — behavior that is central to our investigation — and it would be highly inappropriate for him to employ the same tactic to withhold information from the Committee.”

Many of the employees and former employees who participated in the NFL’s internal investigation of the Commanders’ workplace culture signed nondisclosure agreements.

Maloney said the committee was already agreeing to let Snyder testify remotely and give him access to transcribed interviews of other witnesses as well as provide him with a “description of the types of information redacted by the Committee in each of these prior transcripts.”

In her letter to the committee last week, Seymour said that Snyder planned to be in Israel for “much of July” and “into August” to observe the one-year anniversary of his mother’s death. Seymour said she’d travel to Israel for Snyder’s video deposition, which would be conducted in private, but the committee can opt to release all or part of the transcript.

Seymour stated in the letter that she had previous work duties in Europe on the earlier proposed dates of July 6 and 8. She was also in Europe for work on June 22 when NFL commissioner Roger Goodell testified at a hearing on the investigation. Seymour said Snyder would agree to testify on July 28 or 29 — the last two days the House is in session before its August recess.

CAROLINA

QB BAKER MAYFIELD will have to win an open competition to get to play against the Browns in the season opener.  Mike Triplett of ESPN.com:

Baker Mayfield will have to earn the Carolina Panthers’ starting quarterback job in an “open competition” with Sam Darnold this summer, general manager Scott Fitterer confirmed Tuesday.

“The reason why we added Baker was to make the group better as a whole,” Fitterer said after the Panthers officially completed their trade with the Cleveland Browns for the former No. 1 overall draft pick. “Sam is very much a part of this competition. … I think they’re both gonna rise and play their best football they have.”

Fitterer added that there have been no discussions about extending Mayfield’s contract yet as both he and Darnold head into the final year of their current deals. And he said there have been no discussions about trading Darnold.

“We’ll let it play out throughout the season and we’ll make decisions later in the season whether it’s November or December, once there’s a track record behind (Mayfield) in this offense and this organization. … I just want to take it short term for now,” said Fitterer, who added that rookie third-round draft pick Matt Corral will have the opportunity to “learn at his own pace” and learn from “some pros in the room” that also includes backup P.J. Walker.

Mayfield, meanwhile, said that Darnold reached out to him the day after the deal was agreed to last week and offered to help him with things like finding a place to live and arranging an informal workout session with new teammates before training camp starts in two weeks.

“It’s gonna be special, and I think we’re gonna help each other out quite a bit,” Mayfield said of Darnold — who was drafted two picks after him atop the 2018 NFL draft.

Mayfield said nobody at this level has the mindset of being a backup — but vowed to fill whatever role the team has in mind while becoming “the best quarterback I can be … a great leader and a great teammate.”

One thing Mayfield has already secured, however, is the No. 6 he has worn since college — thanks to the generosity of punter Johnny Hekker, who signed with the Panthers earlier this year but agreed to switch numbers.

“I did my own negotiating with Johnny,” joked Mayfield, who said the No. 6 has become special to him and “symbolizes my story” even though it was initially chosen for him as a walk-on at Texas Tech.”

SEATTLE

If they weren’t in the same division, you would say that the Seahawks are the most logical trade partner for QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO and the 49ers.  David Bonilla of 49ersWebZone.com:

The San Francisco 49ers cutting Jimmy Garoppolo would be a risky move. That would allow the Seattle Seahawks to swoop in and sign Garoppolo, forcing Kyle Shanahan’s squad to face him twice a year.

While Garoppolo’s critics would like to pretend that isn’t a big deal, adding Garoppolo would instantly improve Seattle’s quarterback situation. Right now, they are slated to enter the 2022 season with Drew Lock and Geno Smith—in some order—at the top of the depth chart. Installing Garoppolo would provide Pete Carroll with an undisputed starter.

Garoppolo-to-Seattle is a possibility. While San Francisco is unlikely to trade Garoppolo to a division rival, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that the Seahawks have done their homework on the 49ers quarterback.

“A few executives I’ve spoken to believe the 49ers are a bit stuck here,” Fowler said on SportsCenter, “because they need Garoppolo to pass a physical coming off the shoulder surgery. They need to renegotiate his contract with that new team on that $24 million salary. And the pool of suitors right now seems to be pretty small.

“Now, a few things that are positive for San Fran: I’m told Garoppolo’s recovery has remained on schedule. He should start throwing now, or if he hasn’t already. He’ll do a ramp-up phase until he can eventually pass that physical.

“And you have Seattle that’s still out there. They were sort of implicated in the Baker Mayfield situation, didn’t make that move. I’m told that, internally, they have discussed the possibility of Garoppolo playing for them. They’ve done their film work to see how he would fit.”

Garoppolo could be a good place-holder until the Seahawks can identify a quarterback of the future—perhaps in next year’s draft. There is also the possibility that the 49ers quarterback flourishes in Seattle, allowing Carroll and company to take their time.

“Tricky certainly to do a trade inside the NFC West,” Fowler continued, “but the 49ers and Seattle know they can maybe sort of wait this out because the 49ers have limited cap space right now. … They want to re-sign Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel. To do that, they need some of Garoppolo’s $24 million in base salary. Seattle probably knows that, which means maybe they won’t make a trade. They’ll just wait for [the] 49ers to release him.”

LAS VEGAS

TE DARREN WALLER is enjoying watching WR DEVANTE ADAMS.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

Elite players have a tendency to look a little different on the practice field.

Sometimes it’s subtle. But when one of the best players in the league lines up and goes through drills, it’s usually not hard to differentiate between him and the average player.

Raiders receiver Davante Adams apparently had that effect during the team’s offseason program, impressing even his teammates.

Tight end Darren Waller said in an appearance on the Green Light podcast hosted by Chris Long that he spent plenty of time observing Adams to try and pick up some of what makes the receiver so good off the line.

“I try to go get in the line with him in individual [drills] when they’re releasing, doing releases on the little tire man over there in the corner,” Waller said. “He’s working his little double-hand swipe, windshield-wiper off the line. I don’t know, it’s just like, you know what release he’s going to do — the little split with the shake — but it’s just so smooth, and quick, and effective. And guys are just about to s— themselves trying to stop it.

“And I’m over there in line just watching him, or if it’s in a team drill and I’m not in and he’s in, I’m just trying to be like, what is it about that that makes it so effective? And I don’t know man, it’s just a balance, a mindset of, ‘I’m running shit out here. Nobody’s going to make me move at a pace that isn’t my own.’”

Adams has become arguably the best receiver in the league by honing that skillset. Last year, he caught 123 passes for 1,553 yards with 11 touchdowns in 16 games.

Adams’ numbers in 2022 may go down given that he’s in a different offense with a different quarterback. But his elite ability to separate is unlikely to change no matter where he’s playing.

– – –

Attorneys for WR HENRY RUGGS III have failed in their sleazy attempt to get the results of his blood test thrown out.  The AP:

A judge ruled Tuesday that results of a blood-alcohol test taken from former Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Henry Ruggs III can be used as evidence in his DUI crash case.

Authorities said the 23-year-old Ruggs allegedly was driving 156 mph just seconds before the fiery November 2021 crash that left a woman, Tina Tintor, dead and Ruggs and his female passenger, Kiara Je’nai Kilgo-Washington, injured.

Prosecutors have said Ruggs’ blood alcohol level after the crash several miles west of the Las Vegas Strip was 0.16%, which is twice the legal limit for drivers in Nevada.

Ruggs’ lawyers argued Tuesday that police did not have probable cause to ask a judge for the warrant to obtain Ruggs’ blood after the crash.

Las Vegas Justice of the Peace Ann Zimmerman disagreed and denied the defense’s motion to exclude the blood test.

Prosecutors have said Ruggs could be sentenced to more than 50 years in prison if he’s convicted of all charges in the case.

TENNESSEE

The Titans were the number one seed in the AFC last year, but Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com only has them at #16 in his preseason rankings.  Here is his preview:

The Tennessee Titans were two home wins from a Super Bowl. They were well-rested after a bye. They even got Derrick Henry back from injury for the playoffs.

The NFL changes fast and most teams don’t get many chances to win a title. The Titans had one such opportunity after a fortunate run to the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Then they lost 19-16 to the Cincinnati Bengals in the divisional round.

That’s the type of loss a franchise doesn’t move on from right away.

“It’s a scar. It’s a deep scar. It was a lot of sleepless nights,” Tannehill told reporters in early May, via the Cincinnati Enquirer. “Every time I close my eyes, I was rewatching the game in my head. Didn’t get a whole lot of sleep for weeks and weeks after the game. I was in a dark place. And it took me a while and a lot of work to get out of it. You know, it wasn’t something that went away easily. And it’s still a scar that I’ll carry with me throughout the rest of my life.”

That’s the burden the Titans carry into this season. And the offseason wasn’t great.

Maybe you believe the Titans were right to trade A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles once his contract demands got too high and replace him with first-round draft pick Treylon Burks. It still stung to move on from a receiver who has top-10 talent and hadn’t yet turned 25 years old. They shipped Brown to Philadelphia because they were unwilling to pay him in a changing financial landscape.

Brown signed a four-year, $100 million deal with the Eagles after the trade, which is in line with the new market rate for top receivers.

“I know what the gap we had to bridge was,” Titans coach Mike Vrabel said. “This wasn’t easy.”

“This wasn’t my fault,” Brown told ESPN. “I wanted to stay, but the deal they offered was a low offer. The deal they offered wasn’t even $20 million a year.”

With that trade, the Titans go into this season with one of their best players off to Philly, a star running back who is reaching an age when a remarkable workload might catch up to him, and still stinging from a blown opportunity in the playoffs. All while trying to outrun the regression that might be coming after the Titans outpaced their advanced stats to go 12-5 last season.

Most fans hate when you suggest football records can be determined by lucky breaks, but the Titans never profiled as a typical No. 1 seed. They outscored opponents by 65 points, which puts their pythagorean win total at 10.3, almost two wins below their actual record. Football Outsiders’ DVOA was unkind to the Titans, ranking the team 20th. FO’s estimated wins metric had the Titans as an eight-win team. The Titans had a lower DVOA than any No. 1 or 2 seed in the history of FO’s database.

Injuries played into the low rating, and head coach Mike Vrabel and his staff did a remarkable job overcoming them and finding key wins. It’s still hard to deny that Tennessee wasn’t a typically strong No. 1 seed. A lopsided 6-1 regular-season record in games decided by three points or fewer was a big factor.

This season will be a test for Vrabel and Tannehill. Vrabel has been excellent with Tennessee and won NFL Coach of the Year after last season. Having one of the NFL’s best coaches is a good place to start. Tannehill has been very good for the Titans and maybe a bit underrated, but he took a step back with a depleted team around him last season. His three-interception game in the postseason loss to the Bengals brought a new round of questions over whether Tennessee can compete in the AFC without a great quarterback. Tannehill is not the Titans’ biggest problem, but his reputation as a not-good-enough quarterback will persist.

The Titans are unlikely to get the top seed in the AFC again this season because that’s a hard mountain to climb for any team. They could still be very good. But they’ll never totally get over the missed opportunity they had last season.

OFFSEASON GRADE

The Titans entered last season with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones at receiver, and some high hopes for the offense. Brown was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles and the Titans admitted a big mistake in trading for Jones and cut him after one injury-filled season. Tennessee traded for veteran receiver Robert Woods, who was a good player with the Los Angeles Rams but is 30 years old and coming off a torn ACL he suffered last November. The Titans drafted Treylon Burks in the first round with the pick they got for Brown, though Burks might take time to adjust to the NFL. A lot of his production at Arkansas was based on manufactured touches. Questions about Burks’ conditioning after offseason practices are probably overblown, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. Auburn CB Roger McCreary, Ohio State OT Nicholas Petit-Frere and Liberty QB Malik Willis were the team’s other three top-100 picks. It was a very quiet free agency for the Titans. The team signed tight end Austin Hooper and cut guard Rodger Saffold, and there weren’t any other notable comings or goings. A lot of money was spent on retaining edge rusher Harold Landry, who got a five-year, $87.5 million deal. The grade drops because the Titans might regret trading Brown as he hits his prime.

GRADE: C-minus

QUATERBACK REPORT

The Titans’ quarterback situation got more complicated during the NFL draft. The team found value in Liberty quarterback Malik Willis, a fantastically gifted player who fell to the third round. His selection made sense, given that many had Willis pegged as a first-rounder and Ryan Tannehill will be 34 this season. It also makes it uncomfortable. Already, Tannehill has been unfairly criticized for saying it isn’t his job to mentor Willis. That’s just the start of the controversies. Anytime a team has an exciting young quarterback on the bench, his name will come up if the starter struggles. Tannehill had his fewest yards per game and fewest touchdowns in his three Titans seasons. He had his most interceptions in a season since 2013. His 89.6 passer rating was his lowest as a Titan by 16.9 points. And now he is going forward without his best receiver, with a rookie quarterback waiting behind him. He’ll be under a lot of scrutiny.

BETTING ODDS BREAKDOWN

The Titans’ win total at BetMGM is 9.5, which is 2.5 fewer than they won last season. The under is the more popular side, as the odds are -140. Everyone is down on the Titans. Tennessee missing the playoffs is -105 odds and that makes sense if you like the Indianapolis Colts to win the division. I’ll take that, assuming the Titans take a step back, the Colts will be better and Tennessee will have a tough time beating a lot of competition for a wild-card spot.

FANTASY TAKE

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Austin Hooper is outside the Top 200 in NFFC rooms, but Yahoo drafters are taking Hooper around Pick 130. Maybe that’s a hair too ambitious, but I think Yahoo players are on the right track.

“Hooper did little in Cleveland, but so much of that can be explained by all the things that went wrong in the Browns passing game. Now Hooper heads to a Tennessee offense that has a plus quarterback (Ryan Tannehill) and a ghost town wide receiver room. There are available targets here, and Hooper will soak up a bunch of them.

“Not all of your fantasy football picks will be home runs. Sometimes a late-round double, or even a single, is just fine. Hooper has a fair chance to go back to the quiet, efficient contributor he was during his Atlanta days. He’s a target tight end for the later rounds.”

STAT TO REMEMBER

Derrick Henry was ninth in the NFL last season with 937 rushing yards, and his 10 rushing touchdowns tied for sixth-most in the league. That’s amazing considering Henry played just eight of 17 games. Henry had a Jones fracture in his right foot, though he returned for the postseason. Henry’s workload hasn’t been a problem, but this is the first time he ever missed significant time due to injury. Henry led the NFL with 303 carries in 2019 and again with 378 carries in 2020. He has 1,401 career carries and 156 more in the postseason. He also had a 395-carry college season at Alabama, when he won the Heisman Trophy. Henry seems larger than life and indestructible, but he’ll turn 29 near the end of the regular season and has been carrying the Titans’ offense on his shoulders for years. It’s fair to wonder if last season’s injury was the start of him hitting the downside of his career.

BURNING QUESTION

Can the Titans’ defense carry them?

The Titans sacked Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow nine times in a divisional playoff loss last season, tying a playoff record. That’s not only because the Bengals’ line was bad. The Titans have some big-time defensive players. Jeffery Simmons is a disruptive tackle, Harold Landry is coming off a 12-sack season, Kevin Byard might be the best safety in the NFL and fellow safety Amani Hooker is very good too. If Bud Dupree, a big free-agent addition from the Pittsburgh Steelers last year, has a better second season in Tennessee, then the Titans will be even more loaded in the front seven. They were solid on defense last season and it seems like there could be another level for them to reach.

BEST CASE SCENARIO

The Titans went 12-5 last season despite Derrick Henry missing more than half the season. They’re very well-coached, Ryan Tannehill is a capable quarterback and the defense has plenty of talent. With some better injury luck, the Titans could win double-digit games for a second straight season and win the AFC South. They’re 30-13 in Tannehill’s starts, and maybe the loss of A.J. Brown is being overblown. The Titans are probably on firmer ground than this ranking is crediting them for. While getting another No. 1 seed is going to be tough, there’s no reason the Titans couldn’t get another elite season out of Henry and make a playoff run.

NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

Even if the Titans have regression coming, it’s hard to believe they’ll fall apart. The nucleus, including the coaching staff, is too good for that. But a middling season without a playoff berth would be tough. Derrick Henry seems like a superhero, but he’s a running back and his dominant run won’t last forever. Ryan Tannehill is aging too. A season around .500 would drive home the reality that last season was this group’s best chance to do something special.

THE CRYSTAL BALL SAYS

I don’t like fading Mike Vrabel and his team, but I expect the Titans to take a step back. Derrick Henry is one of the most entertaining players of this era, yet we can’t act like he’ll be great forever at that position. Losing A.J. Brown leaves too many questions in the passing game, and a potential quarterback controversy doesn’t help. The Titans will miss the playoffs. Then they’ll have to take a look at a roster that is aging and wonder what their best path is moving forward.

NEW ENGLAND

The route to Bustville goes through Chicago for WR N’KEAL HARRY.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

N’Keal Harry is finally getting a fresh start.

In exchange for Harry, the Patriots will receive a 2024 seventh-round draft pick.

A first-round pick in 2019, Harry never truly found his footing with New England. He played just seven games in his rookie year with five starts, making 12 catches for 105 yards with a pair of touchdowns. Then in 2020, he appeared in 14 games with nine starts, catching 33 passes for 309 yards.

He requested a trade before last season that never materialized. So in 2021, Harry played just 29.5 percent of New England’s offensive snaps in 12 games. He finished with 12 catches for 184 yards.

Harry had his fifth-year option declined in the spring. Earlier, his time with the Patriots appeared to be coming to a close when the team traded for DeVante Parker.

Adding Harry gives second-year Bears quarterback Justin Fields another potential weapon on a receiving corps that does not have many notable names. The club signed Equanimeous St. Brown and Byron Pringle in free agency. And Chicago selected receiver Velus Jones Jr. out of Tennessee in the third round of this year’s draft.

THIS AND THAT

TOP 10 WIDE RECEIVERS

We haven’t run all of them, but here we include the top 10 list of current wide receivers in a poll taken by Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com:

Condensing a loaded receiver landscape into a top-10 list is a near-impossible task. The explosion of 7-on-7 football at the youth levels has accelerated the growth of the position. From high school to college, pass-catchers enter the NFL ready to produce. Passing numbers are steadily rising in nearly every category.

Most teams have at least one impact receiver. Most NFL drafts have a dozen or more potentially elite receivers drafted in the first two rounds. Catching 100 passes is less anomaly and more an expectation for a top player. And complicating matters is the ascension of several players who either didn’t make the cut last year or were too young to do so.

Let’s look at some of the game’s top receivers as ranked by execs, coaches, scouts and players around the NFL.

1. Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders

Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 4

Age: 29 | Last year’s ranking: 1

Adams was the runaway winner for the second consecutive year, picking up more than two-thirds of the first-place votes.

“Still the best,” an NFC exec said. “Big, athletic, runs all the routes, competitive.” Added an AFC personnel evaluator: “His spatial awareness and route feel are the best. There are times, because of how good he was with Aaron [Rodgers], where you couldn’t guard him.”

In 2021, Adams was coming off a historic 18-touchdown season and got even more attention from defenses. Yet he still delivered career-highs in receptions (123) and yards (1,553), catching a pass on 23.3% of his routes, good for second among receivers behind Cooper Kupp.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers recorded a 88.5 Total QBR when targeting Adams last season, but the star wideout now aims to elevate Derek Carr in Las Vegas, which traded for Adams in March. A good sign for Carr: Adams produced a 6.2% catch rate over expectation last year, good enough for sixth in the NFL among receivers with 100-plus targets.

“And his run after catch is underrated,” an NFL offensive coach said. “He’s impossible to cover, and then you still have to tackle him.” Adams’ 5.1 yards after the catch per reception ranked No. 21 in the NFL in 2021. Some evaluators wonder if his production will dip slightly in Las Vegas but still expect 100 or more catches.

2. Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 5

Age: 28 | Last year’s ranking: Honorable mention

I always go back to this quote from an NFL head coach a year ago: Kupp is “teach tape.” Everything he does is exactly how you would coach it.

The Rams’ 2021 training camp portended Kupp’s big year. During a midweek visit to the Rams’ facility last summer, I watched as nearly every offensive play ended with the ball in Kupp’s hands for a first down. And what came next was a season for the ages. Kupp hit the Triple Crown for receivers, leading the league in catches (145), receiving yards (1,947) and touchdown catches (16). And he led in nearly every other receiving category, too, from catches for a first down (89) to catches of 40-plus yards (nine).

“Just a natural football player — instincts, nuance, quickness,” a high-ranking NFL official said. “Born to play the receiver position.”

Kupp’s 111.9 expected points added was No. 1 among receivers by a mile (per NFL Next Gen Stats), and he ranked sixth in catch percentage (75.5%), a stellar clip considering his nearly 200 targets. It’s worth noting Kupp never surpassed 1,200 yards in any of his first four NFL seasons — all coming before the arrival of quarterback Matthew Stafford in L.A. — but injuries were part of the reason, especially early in his career.

“I love him, but if I’m drafting pure receivers to dictate coverage and handle any scheme and win matchups, other receivers offer more flexibility,” an NFL offensive coach said. “He’s a byproduct of that [Rams] scheme a little bit.”

Conversely, an AFC scout says Kupp’s physical traits are probably still underrated. “I wouldn’t be surprised if some DBs felt he’s the hardest guy to cover,” the scout said. “Why he may go overlooked now is the same reason he went overlooked in college — he’s faster and quicker and stronger than you think.”

3. Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 8

Age: 22 | Last year’s ranking: Unranked (rookie)

Scouts who considered Chase the best all-around player in the 2021 draft are feeling validated in a big way. Chase dominated the voting outside of Adams and Kupp, receiving several No. 1 selections for his banner rookie year in which he burst onto the scene with 81 catches, 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns.

“He might be the best in a year. He’s got it all,” an NFL personnel official said.

Chase is a walking splash play, with his 11.5 yards per target and 13 catches for 30 or more yards each ranking second in the NFL. His 658 yards after catch ranked third, and his catch rate over expectation (6.2%) tied Adams for sixth, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

He did all of this after sitting out his final year at LSU. And considering his chemistry with Bengals QB Joe Burrow, Chase is poised to contend for the top spot next year.

“He’s 210 [pounds] but moves like an 190-pounder, strong as hell, fast as hell, great instincts,” the exec said. “Ja’Marr is the next great one.”

4. Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: Out of top 10

Age: 22 | Last year’s ranking: Honorable mention

Jefferson was an ascending star after his 2020 rookie year. Now, he’s a bona fide star after his sophomore year. He put together a near-perfect season, recording a stellar 90.1 Pro Football Focus rating after catching 108 of his 168 targets for 1,616 yards and 10 touchdowns. Jefferson also ranked 14th in yards per catch (15.0), which is impressive considering his usage.

The Vikings didn’t hide their intentions to force-feed Jefferson the ball, no matter the coverage. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the LSU product recorded 2,060 air yards, which was 45.2% of the team’s total output, 3% higher than any other player in the league. And despite the presence of Adam Thielen, Jefferson also saw 28.9% of Minnesota’s targets, the third-most in the NFL.

“He’s not a burner, but he’s got everything else,” an NFL offensive coach said. “Instincts, competitive, great route-runner, can win at all levels of the field.”

But even the burner conversation seems moot after Jefferson ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash before the 2020 draft and broke 11 plays for 30-plus yards in 2021. As multiple scouts and coaches said, I’ll take his speed all day.

“He wants to be the best in the game, and you can feel that,” an AFC coach said. “He’ll get a gazillion targets in that [new Vikings] offense.”

5. Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: 9

Age: 28 | Last year’s ranking: 4

People around the league understand why the Dolphins gave up several high picks via a trade with Kansas City for the right to sign Hill to a massive four-year, $120 million deal. He changes everything an offense can do.

“I’m so glad he doesn’t play for the Chiefs anymore,” said an AFC personnel evaluator. “I know they will still be good, but I don’t think they will be the same. You can’t be. That level of speed, he’s like Steph Curry in that he keeps you in every game, keeps you honest, keeps you scared.”

Over his past three healthy seasons, Hill averaged 95 catches, 1,331 yards and 12 touchdowns. And since 2020, he totaled 15 catches over that time in which he hit at least 20 miles per hour, more than double any other receiver (per NFL Next Gen Stats).

His splash plays were down slightly in 2021, with 13 catches of 20-plus yards and just three catches of 40-plus yards (compared to 19 and five, respectively, the previous year), and he also dropped a career-high seven passes. But Hill also upped his reception total from 87 to 111 as the Chiefs had to adjust to defenses trying to take away Hill’s length-of-field explosion.

“If you can pair him with the right quarterbacks, he can be No. 1 or 2 and justify it,” the evaluator said. “Very underrated route runner. People don’t talk about how good he is at running routes and how good his hands are. Extremely natural and extremely strong. He’s a different level. Not sure if you can do anything against him.”

6. Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills

Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 10

Age: 28 | Last year’s ranking: 3

The Bills’ trade for Diggs two years ago turned into one of the best moves of the past decade. In Buffalo, Diggs has transformed from fringe top-10 receiver to unquestionable star, entering last year’s rankings at No. 3.

“So much of Josh Allen’s rise has to do with the fact he can throw Diggs the ball,” an NFL offensive coach said. “Makes life so much easier.”

Diggs’ numbers dipped slightly in 2021, but his 103 catches for 1,225 yards on 164 targets were all still in the top eight for WRs. (He produced 127 catches and 1,535 yards on roughly the same target share in 2020.) And he proved lethal in the end zone this past year with 10 touchdowns, his first time cracking double-digits for a season. Diggs’ production earned him a four-year, $96 million extension this offseason.

“If we’re talking about beating a corner, winning one-on-one coverage, I don’t know if there’s anybody better,” a separate NFL offensive coach said. “That’s his defining trait. He can break you down.”

One knock on Diggs, from an AFC scout: “Can struggle a bit with high-end corners who press him at the line. Doesn’t have the elite speed to leave those corners.”

7. DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals

Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: Out of top 10

Age: 30 | Last year’s ranking: 2

Hopkins was on a route to potentially becoming the No. 1 receiver — he ranked No. 2 last year — but then missed seven games because of injury, including a sprained knee that required surgery. Then in May, Hopkins was suspended six games this season for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs. Hopkins admitted to a November drug test that contained traced elements of a banned substance, which shocked and confused the player. So Hopkins has work to do to re-enter the top-five discussion.

“He’s still a high-end guy for me because of his ability to battle and make contested catches,” a veteran NFL coach said. “If the ball’s in the air, I trust him to get it. Simple as that.”

The production was still there in limited action, with Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray posting a 95.9 Total QBR when targeting him, including eight touchdowns to zero interceptions. But 42 catches and 572 yards — a pace short of 1,000 yards over a 17-game format — were career lows, and Hopkins has now failed to produce double-digit touchdowns in three straight seasons.

8. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Highest ranking: 4 | Lowest ranking: Out of top 10

Age: 28 | Last year’s ranking: 7

Evans is the player who almost always gets mentioned, even if he’s off a top-10 ballot — and the response is usually “I can’t believe I’m leaving him off.”

After eight seasons, Evans hasn’t shown signs of regression. He’s the lone NFL receiver to record eight consecutive 1,000-yard seasons once entering the league, and over the past two years, he has done it with a reasonably low target share (223 total targets since 2020). That’s what makes his 27 touchdowns during that span so special. He’s scoring on every 8.3 targets.

“As far as the high-end guys, he’s one of the most underrated in football,” an AFC scout said. “That’s how his career has been. When he’s done, he’ll have so many yards and production that you’ll have to put him in the Hall of Fame. He’s not always respected as he should be.”

Evans produced 0.54 expected points added per target last year, and Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady recorded a 92.8 Total QBR when targeting him. One knock on his game? His 508 yards after catch in 2021 was well below the top guys, ranking 37th in the league among receivers.

“You can see with some guys you can throw them a hitch or a slant or a screen, and they can take it to the house,” the scout said. “That’s not Evans’ game.”

9. Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Highest ranking: 7 | Lowest ranking: Out of top 10

Age: 26 | Last year’s ranking: Unranked

Samuel’s hybrid receiver/running back role complicated his voting for some evaluators.

“As a pure WR, I’m not sure where to put him,” an NFL personnel director said. “As an offensive skill player, he’s elite and belongs in there.”

Samuel’s increased workload at tailback in 2021 has been a prime topic this offseason, as Samuel requested a trade from the 49ers. The 2019 second-rounder rushed 59 times in the regular season and another 27 times in the playoffs, many of which were between the tackles. Becoming more of a full-time receiver can preserve Samuel’s long-term health.

Either way, Samuel is among the game’s best with the ball in his hands, averaging 10.0 yards after catch per reception, tops in the league among receivers. Nearly 30% of his catches last season gained at least 20 yards, and his 77 catches for 1,405 yards remind that he’s more than capable as a pass-catcher.

Some voters say he’s not a refined route-runner like others on this list. But there’s one problem with that line of thinking.

“I don’t think he’s ever had to sit and do routes exclusively because he’s always been so talented that every offense gets him the ball quickly and takes the full route tree off the table a little bit,” an AFC scout said. “He’s like Tyreek [Hill] in that, get him the ball, even as a handoff, and can be successful. So maybe he can’t run as many routes as Keenan Allen or Justin Jefferson. But the balance is healthy because he’s so good. And he can run routes and break you down. He has to be schemed up a little bit, but not to the point where he can’t be a No. 1.”

10. DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

Highest ranking: 5 | Lowest ranking: Out of top 10

Age: 24 | Last year’s ranking: 9

Metcalf narrowly won a heated tiebreaker with the Chargers’ Keenan Allen for the 10th spot, a process that included at least 20 recasts. The results were fascinating because Metcalf and Allen couldn’t be more different as receivers. Allen is a fantastic route runner, while the 6-foot-4, 235-pound Metcalf is an unfinished product with an incredible size/speed combo.

“More explosion, more scoring upside with him over Allen,” an NFL personnel evaluator said. Added an NFL receivers coach: “He’s a better route-runner than you’d think. He can bend.”

Metcalf — who is in line for a massive contract extension from Seattle — played through several issues last year, including a nagging foot injury, erratic quarterback play and consistent double-teams from the coverage. But he still produced 12 touchdowns on 75 catches, along with 967 yards. He is not considered an elite route-runner but has improved considerably since entering the league in 2019.

As one scout pointed out, Seattle seems to give Tyler Lockett more deep-ball opportunities, which seems backward. Lockett’s 14.8 air yards per target was more than two yards deeper than Metcalf’s 12.6 last season. But Metcalf also gets more double-team coverage, which plays a part.

Honorable mentions

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers: Allen’s game hasn’t changed much. He still makes cornerbacks look silly. He is still automatic for 100 catches and 1,000-plus yards every year. And he is still relatively low on splash plays (11.7 yards per catch for his career) and isn’t a big scorer (six touchdowns last season, and 48 scores over nine seasons). “He gets open on his own — that’s the biggest thing with him,” an NFL personnel evaluator said. “He can do many different things and win with so many routes. That’s why, if you’re building a team, you’d probably start with Keenan Allen above many others.” Allen was Justin Herbert’s primary target when he needed a first down last season, as 66 of Allen’s catches moved the chains, tied with Diggs for sixth overall.

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: To understand Brown’s impact, watch the tape for last season’s Tennessee-San Francisco game in Week 15. Brown threw up 145 yards on Thursday Night Football. He can take over a game. “Incredible ball skills,” an AFC offensive coach said. “Put him in an offense with play-action where he can get over the top and he can win. Violent, explosive style.”

Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders: Since entering the league in 2019, McLaurin has averaged 1,030 yards per season despite playing with eight different starting quarterbacks. “Very natural at the position,” an AFC offensive coach said. “I wasn’t high on him coming out, but I was wrong. He’s really fast, polished. Not necessarily twitchy, but he wins, makes contested catches.” Added an AFC scout: “I wish he had a good quarterback. So underrated.”

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Godwin was dominating last season before his torn ACL, recording 98 catches for 1,103 yards over 14 games. “It’s too bad he got hurt, because he was really coming into his own, with his chemistry with Brady,” an NFC scout said. “I really like him. He can win at all levels.”

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints: Thomas was a fixture in the top 10 before injuries cost him 26 games over the past two years, but he’s expected to be ready for the 2021 season. That he set an NFL record for receptions (149) in his most recent full season sparks optimism for the Saints’ offense in 2022. But much has changed, too. “Sometimes that window of dominance is small, and I’m not sure if he’ll get it back,” a veteran NFC scout said. “He’ll be really solid regardless, but he had that timing with Drew Brees, and now he must reinvent himself a bit.”

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys: Some evaluators think Lamb is on the cusp of the top 10 after 79 catches, 1,102 yards and six touchdowns in Year 2. With Amari Cooper now in Cleveland and Michael Gallup recovering from a torn ACL, Lamb will be the focal point for Dallas’ offense. “He’s so talented that the game comes very easily for him,” an AFC scout said. “He’ll be going through the motions and then suddenly he’s breaking off two guys for a touchdown.”

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers: Williams had a career-year in his fifth NFL season, posting 76 catches for 1,146 yards and nine touchdowns. The production earned him a three-year, $60 million extension. “Size, contested catches, big plays, TD production,” an NFC scouting executive said. “Perfect complement to Keenan Allen.”

Also receiving votes: Adam Thielen (Minnesota Vikings), Tyler Lockett (Seattle Seahawks), Diontae Johnson (Pittsburgh Steelers), Odell Beckham Jr. (free agent), Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals).

2023 DRAFT

Dane Brugler of The Athletic takes a deep dive into the 2023 class of QBs:

The past two NFL Drafts were polar opposites in terms of the quarterbacks. The 2021 NFL Draft saw five quarterbacks selected in the top 15, which had never happened (and was only the third time in NFL Draft history that five quarterbacks were selected first round).

Meanwhile, this past NFL Draft was a rock-bottom outlier and will be remembered as one of the more lackluster quarterback classes in history. The 2022 NFL Draft had only one passer selected in the first 73 picks — the first time that happened since 1996.

Just about anything would be an upgrade over last year’s group, but the 2023 crop of quarterbacks should be closer to the 2021 group in terms of collection of talent and high-level potential.

(Note: Asterisk represents draft-eligible underclassmen. Heights and weights are what NFL teams have on file for each player and may differ from school rosters.)

1. *C.J. Stroud, Ohio State (6-3, 220)

Best trait: Touch and anticipation

Stroud was the best quarterback prospect I watched last season in college football — and he got better and better as the season progressed, culminating in a remarkable Rose Bowl performance.

Over his final nine games: 74.7% completions, 385.8 yards per game, 36-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Over his final four games: 79.8% completions, 440.0 yards per game, 19-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Rose Bowl performance: 80.4% completions, 537 yards, 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Stroud checks the boxes physically, but his instincts as a passer are what really elevate his game, especially considering he was only a redshirt freshman last season. He anticipates and layers throws exceptionally well with a delicate touch that ensures his receivers don’t have to work for the catch.

Must improve: Utilizing his mobility

Only a redshirt freshman last season, Stroud has several areas where he can mature, especially with his feet and timing. One of the frustrating parts of his film was his reluctance to tuck, run and pick up positive yards with his legs. To his credit, Stroud exhausts all of his reads and keeps his eyes downfield, searching for a last-second window. But when there is wide-open pasture for the taking in front of him, he needs to realize the gift and take advantage.

2022 season/2023 NFL Draft outlook

Replacing Justin Fields, who led the Buckeyes to back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances in his two seasons as the starter, was an unenviable task. At this point last year, no one was quite sure how the Ohio State quarterback situation would play out, especially with a pair of highly-ranked true freshmen (Kyle McCord and Quinn Ewers) in the fold. But it was Stroud who won the starting job and emerged as a star, leading Ohio State to an 11-win season, including a historic Rose Bowl performance.

Stroud certainly benefits from Ryan Day’s offense and the elite talent around him, including a pair of first-round receivers in the 2022 class and a few more coming through the pipeline. But isolating the quarterback and his traits, Stroud’s passing anticipation and even-keeled focus on each play are remarkable. His quarter-by-quarter splits? Almost identical. On third downs? 75.6% completions. His awareness doesn’t waver regardless of situation.

Stroud is a steady and generous facilitator: He trusts that his receivers are going to be where they need to be, and he delivers a catchable ball so receivers don’t have to work too hard for it. I’ll bet on those traits every day.

2. *Bryce Young, Alabama (5-11, 197)

Best trait: Poise and processing

Stroud was the best quarterback prospect I saw last season, but Young wasn’t far behind. Young’s list of strengths as a quarterback is extensive, but at the top are the two Ps: poise and processing. He is patient yet assertive, as well as composed, but routinely able to make the spontaneous decision. Young does a great job keeping his feet connected with his eyes to alter his platforms, eliminate things quickly and find the vulnerable matchup downfield.

What do a lot of the top quarterbacks in the NFL have in common? They make you pay for blitzing them. That is precisely what Young did repeatedly in last year’s film.

Must improve: Off-balance mechanics

The obvious concern with Young’s game is his lack of size and limited frame, but that is an issue that will follow him throughout his career. An area where he can improve is his tendency to deliver without resetting his base, which can hurt his ball placement. With his processing skills, Young’s field vision should continue to improve with experience, giving him more time to establish his throwing mechanics.

2022 Season/2023 NFL Draft outlook

The No. 1 quarterback in the 2020 recruiting class, Young bided his time behind Mac Jones as a freshman before taking over as the starter last season, leading Alabama to the national championship game. He finished second in the FBS in passing touchdowns (47) and passing yards (4,872) and deservedly took home the Heisman Trophy. Young will lose several key playmakers from the 2021 Alabama offense, including the team’s leading rusher, top two receivers and the Tide’s top offensive lineman. But with the way Alabama reloads each year, the talent around the quarterback shouldn’t be an issue.

The Russell Wilson comparison for smaller quarterbacks is redundant and tiresome. But the reason you see Wilson in Young’s game isn’t the lack of size, it is the problem-solving ability. Although Young isn’t as thick as Wilson and isn’t the same type of rush threat, they are both athletic, quick-minded players who possess an uncanny feel for making plays. The size concerns will follow Young throughout the draft process and his NFL career, but he will be viewed as the best player in the 2023 NFL Draft by some around the league.

3. Will Levis, Kentucky (6-4, 230)

Best trait: NFL-level tools

In most physical categories, Levis is the prototype. He is well-built with impressive play strength and athleticism for his size. From his pocket steps to designed quarterback runs, Levis has quick feet and loose body movements which allow him to evade pressure or create false steps by defenders with his play fakes. His pocket footwork and awareness were also noticeably better over the second half of last season.

As a passer, Levis has a lightning-quick release with a whip for an arm and above-average velocity to make every necessary throw. He has the talent to deliver from whatever platform necessary and is just as comfortable outside the pocket as he is driving throws from a three-yard drop.

Must improve: Predetermined decisions

Levis trusts the play design, but almost to a fault at times. He was responsible for at least one interception in 10 of 13 games last season — most of those came when he made his decision before the snap. As a senior, scouts want to see him quicken his coverage reads, pre- and post-snap, to eliminate and work his progressions. Improvements in this area will help him anticipate windows and give him a better sense of placement.

2022 season/2023 NFL Draft outlook

While studying then-Kentucky receiver Wan’Dale Robinson last year, it was impossible to overlook Levis and his intriguing talent as both a passer and athlete. After three seasons as a backup at Penn State, Levis, who comes from an accomplished family of athletes, transferred to Lexington last season and had an encouraging first year as the Wildcats’ starter. He finished with 66.0% completions, 3,202 total yards and 33 total touchdowns, helping Kentucky to a 10-win season (only Alabama and Georgia had more wins among SEC teams).

Levis showed impressive growth under Liam Coen, who had an NFL background and spent last season as Kentucky’s offensive coordinator. Coen returned to the Los Angeles Rams this offseason as offensive coordinator, but the offense should look similar under new play-caller Rich Scangarello, who has an NFL résumé, most recently as San Francisco 49ers quarterbacks coach. In terms of recognition and consistency, Levis isn’t a finished product, but the talent and intangibles are why he has first-round potential.

4. *Tanner McKee, Stanford (6-6, 228)

Best trait: Ball placement

McKee is a fantastic rhythm passer with the vision to work through progressions both horizontally and vertically. He stays balanced with his footwork and shows more than adequate arm strength to fire strikes at all levels of the field. But his placement is what stood out the most when studying his 2021 game film.

Whether he is leading a receiver downfield or attempting a keyhole throw, McKee understands trajectory and pacing so the accuracy of his ball creates catchable opportunities for targets.

Must improve: Second-chance plays

McKee is efficient with his drops and climbs and shows the footwork to stay balanced in the pocket. But he isn’t the type of athlete who will make pass rushers miss in confined areas or be a consistent rush threat. Though he won’t magically become a more explosive athlete overnight, McKee can do a better job anticipating pressure and getting a head start to move the pocket, improvise and create second-chance plays.

2022 season/2023 NFL Draft outlook

Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields were the two top-ranked quarterbacks in the 2018 recruiting class, but McKee wasn’t too far behind. Despite planning a two-year religious mission before becoming a full-time student-athlete, McKee was highly sought after by Alabama, Texas and numerous national programs. McKee ultimately chose Stanford, and after two years serving in Brazil, he joined the team in 2020 when he redshirted. With Davis Mills off to the NFL, McKee became the starter in 2021, and though Stanford managed only three wins, McKee was one of the few bright spots.

McKee isn’t without flaws, but I was impressed by his ability to find his balance as a passer to show off his NFL-level arm and mind. Senior receiver Elijah Higgins and junior tight end Benjamin Yurosek are future NFL draft picks, but he needs more help from his supporting cast to help showcase his skills this upcoming season.

5. *Anthony Richardson, Florida (6-4, 240)

Best trait: Rare physical profile

There are more accomplished quarterback prospects deserving of this spot, but there is no college quarterback with more raw talent than Richardson. He is a well-built, twitchy athlete with the speed to gash defenses with his legs and the big body to power through tacklers. Richardson has a powerful arm (both velocity and distance) to put the ball anywhere on the field, and though his delivery is a little long, the ball explodes out of his hand.

If you want fireworks from Richardson, turn on the South Florida tape where he flexed his playmaking muscles with a 75-yard bomb and an 80-yard touchdown run. But the Florida State tape from later in the season was his best performance and showed promising growth.

Must improve: Sample size

With only 66 career pass attempts, Richardson might as well still be a freshman. And with that inexperience comes freshman-level mistakes and low-percentage throws. Although his size, athleticism and arm are strong selling points, Richardson tends to rely on his physical tools and must focus more on the details of the position. His base and body mechanics are often off-balanced, which throw off his accuracy. Richardson is an intriguing talent, but still has a lot to learn about becoming a polished quarterback.

2022 season/2023 NFL Draft outlook

The first four quarterbacks on this list are entering Year 2 as starters, but Richardson was only a part-time player last season as former Gators coach Dan Mullen stuck with the inconsistent Emory Jones as his starter. In Mullen’s run-heavy spread attack, Richardson finished the 2021 season with 59.4% completions (38-for-64) for 529 yards and a 6-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, adding 401 rushing yards (7.9 average) and three rushing touchdowns. It will be interesting to see how new head coach Billy Napier adjusts his offense to Richardson’s unique skills.

More potential than production right now, it is extremely premature to predict where Richardson will ultimately be drafted. But it felt wrong to leave him out of the top five quarterbacks for next year because of his sky-high ceiling if he continues to harness his skills and become a more consistent decision-maker.