CHICAGO

QB CALEB WILLIAMS has his deal, as does rookie WR ROME ODUNZE.  Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com:

On the day rookies reported to Halas Hall for training camp, quarterback Caleb Williams and wide receiver Rome Odunze — the first and ninth overall picks drafted by the Bears — signed their respective first-round rookie contracts Tuesday.

Sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter that Williams signed a four-year deal worth $39.4 million with a $25.5 million signing bonus. The Bears announced Odunze’s signing earlier in the afternoon, which is a four-year contract worth $22.7 million and containing a $13.3 million signing bonus.

Both contracts are fully guaranteed and contain a fifth-year option in 2028.

Chicago will begin training camp practices on July 20 after veterans report this Friday. The Bears and Texans are the first teams to begin training camp ahead of facing each other in the annual Hall of Fame game in Canton, Ohio, on Aug. 1.

Williams and Odunze were among the last five first-round draft picks to sign their contracts. Williams, who is not represented by an NFLPA-certified agent, had expressed optimism that the team around him would handle his negotiations while he prepares for his first preseason.

“I’m not handling that,” Williams told The Chicago Tribune during his inaugural Caleb Cares Foundation event in Chicago last Saturday. “My lawyers and attorney and everybody, the head of the Bears, everybody up there up top is handling that. That’s not my position that I’m handling.”

The Bears will be featured on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” for the first time since the annual training camp miniseries began in the early 2000s.

NEW YORK GIANTS

The Giants were willing to trade up for QB JAYDEN DANIELS – or at least head coach Brian Daboll was.

Giants head coach Brian Daboll would have liked to trade up and select quarterback Jayden Daniels in the 2024 NFL draft.

That was revealed during a brief preview for next week’s episode of Hard Knocks, which shows Giants General Manager Joe Schoen asking in a team personnel meeting whether Daniels is worth trading up for, and Daboll answering that he is.

“Daniels: Have you guys seen enough that you would trade up for him?” Schoen asked.

Daboll answered, “Daniels? I would.”

As it turned out, the Commanders drafted Daniels with the second overall pick, and the Giants stayed where they were in the first round and took Daniels’ LSU receiver Malik Nabers with the sixth pick.

Daboll’s willingness to trade up for a quarterback is another indication that the Giants are preparing to move on from Daniel Jones after the 2024 season, unless Jones is a lot healthier and a lot better than he was last year. The Giants couldn’t get Daniels in the 2024 draft, but they know they need an upgrade at quarterback. Perhaps in the 2025 draft.

And Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com notices this interesting snippet:

Before Saquon Barkley left the Giants for the Eagles in free agency, Giants owner John Mara made it known he wasn’t going to be happy to see that happen.

Mara told Giants General Manager Joe Schoen that Giants fans love Barkley and that it would be tough for Mara to see Barkley in an Eagles uniform.

“I’ll have a tough time sleeping if Saquon goes to Philadelphia, I’ll tell you that,” Mara said, as shown on Hard Knocks. “As I’ve told you, I’ve been around enough players, but he’s the most popular player we have, by far.”

Mara’s comments point to the realities of how different people within an organization view personnel moves: Schoen is concerned only with putting the best team he can on the field, and Schoen made clear at the start of free agency that he didn’t think the salary cap space Barkley would take up was the best use of the Giants’ resources.

But as the owner, Mara is also concerned about ticket sales, merchandise and sponsorships, and that means he cares about a player’s popularity with the fans. And when Barkley left, the Giants lost a player who sells a lot of jerseys.

PHILADELPHIA

Spurred by old school DC Vic Fangio, the Eagles will practice more this preseason.  Tim McManus of ESPN.com:

– After pushing the limits on what a light, health-conscious offseason training regimen can look like, the Philadelphia Eagles are moving a couple of clicks back toward the pack — with a nudge from old-school defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

Some change will be seen at training camp later this month, when the Eagles are expected to extend their time on the field after cutting down on both the number of practices and the length of sessions in previous years.

“We’re probably on the low-end extreme of time out [on the field],” coach Nick Sirianni said. “There are teams on the high-end extreme. And I think that we need to come up [some].”

Placing a high priority on getting to the regular season with as few injuries as possible, the Eagles tend to land well shy of what’s permitted under the collective bargaining agreement, which allows teams to hold 2½-hour padded practices during the height of training camp. Philadelphia’s high-tempo practices often clock in at around an hour or less, and the schedule includes more days off and practices without full pads than are required.

That approach worked just fine leading into the 2022 season. The Eagles got off to an 8-0 start en route to an appearance in Super Bowl LVII. All 22 of their original starters played in that game.

They took things a step further in 2023, reducing the number of back-to-back practices and increasing the amount of walkthroughs during the heart of camp. Still, they started 5-0 and won 10 of their first 11 games.

However, they looked out of sync early and came a blink away from dropping the opener against the New England Patriots, who finished the season with a 4-13 record. Afterward, Sirianni expressed regret over not playing quarterback Jalen Hurts and other key starters during the preseason, saying he would “definitely reevaluate some of the preseason stuff next year.”

The need to up the offseason activity became greater when the organization fired offensive coordinator Brian Johnson and defensive coordinator Sean Desai following a 1-6 collapse down the stretch and replaced them with Kellen Moore and Fangio. With new schemes being implemented on both sides of the ball, the Eagles held a three-day minicamp in June after opting not to the previous two years.

During his first news conference since being named defensive coordinator, Fangio suggested he lobbied Sirianni for more offseason practices.

“You’ve got to make do with what you got,” he said, “but I keep pushing for more.”

The 65-year-old Fangio was also asked how the players have changed during his 40 years of coaching.

“They really haven’t changed very much at all,” he replied. “What’s changed is the people around them. People are not expecting as much out of players as we used to expect. These players will work and give you everything they’ve got within reason. It starts at an early age, when they’re in high school, college, everybody — less-is-more type of thing, preserve your energy. You guys hear in the NBA, load management. I’ve talked to coaches from other sports that I know, and it drives them crazy.

“The players are willing to work. Never had an issue with that. And they’re still willing to work. But we as the so-called adults in the room need to push them.”

Fangio said he isn’t suggesting the Eagles go back to full-pad two-a-days, but it’s clear his preferences don’t fully align with the more modern-day approach.

Perhaps the sweet spot is in the middle. And the Eagles are at least inching closer to it this offseason.

“I think what’s very important is that we don’t overcorrect. There’s a danger of overcorrecting in my eyes,” Sirianni said. “You have to adapt. You have to evolve.”

ARIZONA

The DB kind of thinks people are sleeping on the Cardinals.  This from Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com:

— During the Cincinnati Bengals’ 34-20 win over the Arizona Cardinals last season at State Farm Stadium, former Bengals offensive tackle Jonah Williams noticed a few things: Arizona’s fans were loud, he liked the stadium and could see what first-year coach Jonathan Gannon was building despite a lack of success on the field.

Williams took mental notes during the game, deciding then that if the Cardinals were interested in him during free agency, he’d “love” to be in Arizona.

Before free agency, Williams told his agent that the Cardinals were his top team. And when free agency opened in March, he found out the feeling was mutual, signing a two-year deal with the team just a five-hour drive from his forever home in San Diego.

Despite last season’s 4-13 record, Arizona made an impression on players throughout the league. From a distance, the Cardinals’ way of playing, atmosphere, coaching staff and culture caught the attention of free agents, so when they had a chance to shop for a new team in March, Arizona jumped to the top of many lists.

And with Gannon’s second training camp approaching, the culture shift appears to be permanent.

“It’s an exciting place as an organization,” Williams said. “Just the positive energy, the positive sort of atmosphere here, and I feel it’s a team on an upward trajectory.

“I was fortunate to be a part of something we had in Cincinnati and it’s just a lot of fun.”

Williams and the other free agents based their decisions on what they saw through the windows. Once he got into the building, though, Williams said he was an even bigger believer in what the Cardinals were doing.

“We’re sort of building from the ground up,” he said. “I’m excited to be a part of that.”

The foundation that Gannon and general manager Monti Ossenfort built in their first year together was what helped attract defensive lineman Justin Jones after he spent the past two seasons with the Chicago Bears.

“I love being a part of that, being a foundational piece for the team because I feel like I bring a lot of intangibles to the table when it comes to building a winning team,” Jones said.

A few of the free agents pointed out that Arizona’s young coaching staff, led by Gannon, was another point of attraction.

Gannon has established himself as a high-energy person. Williams saw that energy as a positive.

“It’s not fake,” Williams said. “There’s some guys who kind of fake the energy. I do not believe he’s faking the energy. I think it’s 100% real.”

For the last four years, running back DeeJay Dallas played against the Cardinals with the Seattle Seahawks. But after watching the Cardinals’ last four games of the season leading into their Week 18 matchup last season, Dallas liked what he saw. He agreed to a three-year deal with Arizona in free agency.

“I kind of wanted this just seeing what the Cardinals were about last year,” he said. “You could tell it was a place that was really on the up and up.

“Just pointing to the last four games of last season … just seeing the trajectory that J.G. had the team on. They were playing fast, playing physical, their special teams were balling out, they were pulling out stuff in the hat on special teams, even in the game against us last year, so that was exciting to see. I think that’s what kind of attracted me to it. I could see they were having fun. They were having fun. So, yeah, I’m ready to have some fun.”

Gannon’s persona is “infectious,” cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting said. “He’s just cool, man. He’s down to Earth. I can just tell from our initial conversations that he cares about the players or he cares about me.”

Despite one-third of the offseason roster being turned over, the returning players are policing the locker room, Gannon said, spreading his beliefs and the way of doing things to the new faces.

“There’s just a level of knowledge and understanding of how we operate and, ‘This is how we do things here,'” Gannon said. “It helps the players to know the expectation and uphold that standard that you’re kind of looking for and it should be pretty seamless now with guys that are getting onboarded.

“I always say if they got questions they can ask their buddy and their buddy knows the answer that I would say. That’s the exact answer I would give you too. So, it’s good to have the players have an understanding of that.”

QB KYLER MURRAY is 26, heading into his 6^th season with 65 career starts under his belt.  Donnie Druin of SI.com thinks the experts are not giving him his due:

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray was nowhere to be found in ESPN’s list of the top NFL quarterbacks ahead of the 2024 season – which is compiled on votes and opinions of league executives, coaches and scouts.

Top names dominated the list, as expected:

NFL QB Rankings

1. Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)

2. Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)

3. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)

4. Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)

5. Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)

6. Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)

7. C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)

8. Aaron Rodgers (New York Jets)

9. Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)

10. Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)

Murray typically is considered a fringe top 10/12 candidate when healthy – which is why it was a bit odd to see not even grouped in the “honorable mention” category with the following names:

Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)

Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)

Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)

Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)

Kirk Cousins (Atlanta Falcons)

Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Murray did receive an unspecified amount of votes to land on the list with Tampa Bay Buccaneers passer Baker Mayfield in the same category, though to not finish in the upper half of quarterback rankings – even after missing half of last season with an ACL injury – is… something.

If you paid close attention to Arizona’s 2023 season, you’d notice the night-and-day shift with the Cardinals offense under Murray’s guidance. All but one of their wins came under Murray, and quite honestly Arizona was a ball bounce away from maybe one or two more wins on their resume.

Statistically speaking, the Cardinals had a top ten offense for the end of the season when Murray came back.

With an improved offense in essentially all areas, it’s interesting to guess as to why people aren’t all over the hype train in the desert:

Budding star and Cardinals tight end Trey McBride – who was also left outside of the top ten in his positional rankings – believes Murray can win the MVP award this season.

“This is the most confident I’ve seen him. This is the first year I’ve been fully healthy with him — he’s fully healthy — I think everything is trending the right way. He has a ton of weapons out there and I have full confidence that he’s capable of an MVP season,” said McBride.

Head coach Jonathan Gannon said he couldn’t contain his excitement for Murray to play a full season:

“I’m not going to hide my excitement, it’s awesome to see him lead the offense. Lead the team, being there with his teammates, asking really good questions, getting held accountable in front of everyone and taking it on the chin just like everybody does, I love that about him,” Gannon told reporters.

“It’s because he’s competitive as all get out, I coach him – he gets coached just like the rookie receiver getting coached making a mistake. He likes that. He welcomes that. He wants that. It’s been really cool to see. I’ve told you guys – it’s going to be an interesting year for him. It really is, I’m excited for him.”

While it’s clear the rest of the league doesn’t follow that line of thought, the Cardinals sure hope to surprise plenty of people once games start to count here shortly.

There was a time when Murray was immature.  But that may not be a permanent condition.

SAN FRANCISCO

WR BRANDON AIYUK has now formally made a trade request.  Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com speculates on landing spots:

One of the unresolved issues of the NFL offseason took another turn Tuesday when receiver Brandon Aiyuk, unhappy with the lack of a contract extension, reportedly requested a trade from the San Francisco 49ers.

It’s unusual for a player as good as Aiyuk to be available, if he will actually be available. Aiyuk had 75 catches for 1,342 yards last season on a loaded 49ers offense. Justin Jefferson recently signed a contract worth a record $35 million per season and while Aiyuk is unlikely to match that, his extension is going to be massive.

If Aiyuk moves, it’s a rare season-shifting transaction in mid-to-late July. Here are the most likely landing spots for Aiyuk:

San Francisco 49ers

There’s a reason Aiyuk wasn’t traded over the offseason. The 49ers are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl after losing it in overtime last season. Aiyuk is one of their best players. As much as Aiyuk wants a new contract and has earned one, he also doesn’t have that much leverage. It seems like the most likely outcome is the 49ers play hardball with Aiyuk, who is set to make a little more than $14.1 million on the fifth-year option of his rookie contract, and practically force him to play for them this season. Aiyuk wouldn’t be happy but his motivation would be to have a big season and hit free agency (or get the franchise tag, which would presumably lead to another round of contention).

The 49ers are a better team with Aiyuk. The draft picks they’d presumably get in a trade wouldn’t help this season as they chase a Super Bowl. Just because Aiyuk requested a trade doesn’t mean it’ll happen. Presumably, San Francisco will do everything it can to make it work with Aiyuk for one more season, and hope that his unhappiness isn’t a distraction in what could be a special season.

Washington Commanders

The ties between Aiyuk and the Commanders have been lingering all offseason. He is friends with Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels from their days together at Arizona State. According to OverTheCap.com, the Commanders have the second-most effective salary-cap space in the NFL at a little more than $37 million. A potential issue is that the Commanders’ draft picks could be very valuable next season — they did draft second overall in April — and a rebuilding team might pause at giving up a lot of picks and a massive contract for Aiyuk. But if the 49ers move Aiyuk, the Commanders seem to be the most natural fit. It has to be enticing to think about Daniels and Aiyuk growing together.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have a significant need at receiver after trading Diontae Johnson. It’s basically George Pickens and not much else.

The team’s quarterback situation is unsettled in the long term, but it’s a lot more attractive for any quarterback going forward if Aiyuk is on the roster. The Steelers have traded high picks for proven players before. Aiyuk himself guessed that the Steelers might be a landing spot if he does get traded. Pittsburgh is also among the league leaders in cap space in 2025 and 2026, so a big long-term extension would not be too hard for the Steelers to handle.

New England Patriots

The Patriots chased Calvin Ridley, but Ridley decided to sign with the Tennessee Titans. The Patriots didn’t land any big prizes at receiver in free agency. They have the most effective cap space in the NFL, at $43.8 million according to OverTheCap.com. New England’s problem is similar to the Commanders in that their draft picks in 2025 will presumably be early ones and they have too many roster holes to spend much draft capital. However, they need talent around rookie quarterback Drake Maye and it’s hard to find a true No. 1 receiver. Aiyuk is just 26 years old and would be a good asset for a New England offense that desperately needs playmakers.

Detroit Lions

Let’s get crazy. The Lions are chasing a Super Bowl in the next season or two. Why not add a receiver who would go very well with Amon-Ra St. Brown? The problem is the cap. While the Lions are in good cap shape now ($34.6 million of space), this offseason they signed massive deals with St. Brown, quarterback Jared Goff and offensive tackle Penei Sewell. It’s hard to figure out how they could also fit Aiyuk under the cap over the long term. But this is probably the most fun fit of any other team. Detroit has some questions at receiver beyond St. Brown, and Aiyuk would be an emphatic answer. He’d probably make the Lions a Super Bowl favorite. This seems very unlikely to happen, but one can dream.

Amazing that the Lions have cap room after all those big-money extensions.

KANSAS CITY

The Chiefs hoisted Lombardi last season without their “A” game and the process wasn’t a lot of fun according to QB PATRICK MAHOMES.  Adam Teicher of ESPN.com:

The Kansas City Chiefs accomplished all of their goals in the 2023 season, including a second straight Super Bowl championship. But Patrick Mahomes said the unusual way they arrived there, with an inconsistent offense that usually didn’t resemble its recent predecessors, left the Chiefs with “a weird feeling.”

The idea at training camp, which begins at Missouri Western State University on Wednesday with a three-day camp for quarterbacks and rookies, is to work out any offensive problems and be at full efficiency when the regular season begins, according to Mahomes.

“We’re back at St. Joe,” Mahomes said. “It’s time to get better. Every season starts differently. You’ve got to come in with that same mentality you had the year before, even with a higher intensity and even though we won the Super Bowl last year, we felt like we didn’t play our best football, especially offensively. So it’s our goal to be better that way and coming in with that mentality every single day.

“The end result [last season] was awesome, but I think a lot of us still have a weird feeling in our mouth . . . It wasn’t fun every single week having to try to just continue to get better and better and the results not paying off the way you wanted to. It wasn’t a lot of fun. We have a lot of those same guys back and they know how that felt and so we’re going to try to prepare ourselves better this year so that we can play better throughout the season and obviously try to end with the same result.”

LAS VEGAS

There are those who think that WR DAVANTE ADAMS is itching for a trade – with the Jets and Green Bay the two mentioned destinations – but his agents say nothing is happening.  Bryan DeArdo of CBSSports.com:

Davante Adams may not be leaving Las Vegas, after all. Adams, whose future with the Raiders has been one of the most talked about NFL items for weeks, has no plans to change teams or ask for a trade, according to his agents.

Adams has specifically been linked to the New York Jets, especially after quarterback Aaron Rodgers said that he “can’t wait” to reunite with his former Packers teammate. Adams recently acknowledged that Rodgers has been trying to recruit him to New York.

Adams’ agents, however, have pumped the breaks on a possible Rodgers-Adams reunion.

“This is baseless, unfounded speculation and Davante is expected to be with the Raiders as there has been absolutely no trade talk — period,” said Adams’ agents, Kenny Chapman and Frank Bauer, via ESPN.

While Adams’ representatives say that he plans to stay in Las Vegas, that doesn’t mean a trade may not happen at some point. If the Raiders (who aren’t expected to be factors in the AFC playoff race this season) start the season slow, they may be compelled to deal the 31-year-old Adams to a contender before the trade deadline. That contender could end up being the Jets, who are expected to be in the playoff mix with Rodgers back in action after he essentially missed the entire 2023 season with his Achilles injury.

At this point, though, Adams plans on being with the Raiders, at least when the 2024 season begins in September.

MIAMI

Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com has the Dolphins at #12 in his preseason rankings:

There have been 17,665 games in NFL history, according to Pro Football Reference. Exactly once has a team gained 700 yards and scored 70 points in a single game.

Even the 2023 Miami Dolphins couldn’t believe they did it.

“This isn’t compared to anything that I’ve seen or been a part of,” quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said.

“Seventy points is crazy — our stats are like video game-type stuff,” running back De’Von Achane said. “I’ve never been on this side of it.”

It was an impressive and memorable day, the second 700-yard game (1951 Los Angeles Rams being the other) and the fourth 70-point game (1940 Chicago Bears, 1966 Washington, 1950 Rams) ever. And the Dolphins did both on the same day. It’s possible we might never see it again. It took until the NFL’s 104th season for it to happen the first time.

In some ways, that fun and creative offense is what we should remember about the 2023 Dolphins. No, they weren’t the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams as you might have heard at times last year, but they were exciting. And good. They were second in the NFL in points and first in yardage. Mike McDaniel’s team always seemed to have a big play to dial up when they wanted it.

And yet, it felt empty at the end. There was no AFC East title, which Miami blew down the stretch. There wasn’t a playoff win either. The Dolphins lost 26-7 in freezer-like conditions to the Kansas City Chiefs. Miami is still looking for its first playoff win since 2000 and its first division title since 2008. Even the 11 regular season wins feel a little light since only one came against a winning team.

“We didn’t get the results that we wanted,” McDaniel said after the season. “We feel good about our process, but everything has to be really evaluated.”

Because of the way the 2023 season ended, losing four of their last six including a 56-19 embarrassment at the Baltimore Ravens, blowing a fourth-quarter lead in a Week 18 AFC East title game against the Buffalo Bills and then the uncompetitive playoff loss at Kansas City, the progress since McDaniel was hired might be overshadowed. Miami made the playoffs after a five-year absence in McDaniel’s first season, then last season won 11 games and earned consecutive playoff appearances for the first time since 2001. McDaniel has shown he is an excellent coach, particularly on offense. It’s just worth wondering if the next step is forward.

There are two ways to look at this season’s Dolphins. Many of the biggest pieces from that 11-6 team return, including offensive stars like quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. Therefore the Dolphins should be able to pick up where they left off. Injuries were a big part of the late-season fade, and that is usually bad luck that doesn’t necessarily repeat. But it wasn’t a great offseason as salary cap reality set in — there were three players that switched teams this offseason to get a deal of $100 million or more, and two of them left the Dolphins — and maybe Miami just blew its best chance for a truly special year. Things change too quickly in the NFL to assume anything can repeat.

This season will say a lot about whether the Dolphins are going to stick as a playoff team and possibly a contender for a while. Tagovailoa’s contract situation is another obstacle the Dolphins will have to manage, as he’ll either get a deal that’s somewhere around the $50 million-a-year range or Miami will be looking for a new quarterback. Miami was already juggling its salary cap this offseason, before getting to Tagovailoa’s future.

Everything has been on an upward turn since McDaniel was hired. The Dolphins hope that last season’s collapse wasn’t the start of a new trajectory.

Offseason grade

The Dolphins had a ton of free agency movement, coming in and going out. Miami had two big free-agent losses. Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins got $110 million from the Raiders and guard Robert Hunt got $100 million from the Panthers. Those two, along with Kirk Cousins, were the only three players to get more than $100 million to switch teams this offseason. Even if Wilkins and Hunt were overpaid — to be clear, they were — they were still big losses on the interior of Miami’s offensive and defensive lines. The Dolphins have some big-name talent and it caught up to their salary cap this offseason. Other losses like cornerback Xavien Howard, linebacker Jerome Baker, pass rusher Andrew Van Ginkel, safety Brandon Jones and defensive tackle Raekwon Davis will probably sting too.

The Dolphins did add players. Linebacker Jordyn Brooks, center Aaron Brewer, cornerback Kendall Fuller (a great value at $15 million over two years), tight end Jonnu Smith, pass rusher Shaq Barrett, defensive lineman Calais Campbell and receiver Odell Beckham Jr. will help offset the losses. Experts weren’t too fired up about the Dolphins draft, giving a consensus grade that ranked 23rd in the NFL. First-round pick Chop Robinson is an athletic but unproductive pass rusher from Penn State. Second-round pick Patrick Paul is a huge offensive lineman from Houston. The Dolphins somewhat surprisingly drafted running back Jaylen Wright in the fourth round, perhaps as insurance if Raheem Mostert slows down or De’Von Achane can’t stay healthy. Overall, it seems like the Dolphins lost more than they gained.

Grade: C-

Quarterback report

Tua Tagovailoa was robbed of NFL Comeback Player of the Year. It’s easy to forget that last offseason, a regular conversation centered around Tagovailoa’s concussions and his future (last season’s Dolphins preview focused on Tagovailoa’s health concerns). Tagovailoa said he considered retirement, but came back and played at a near MVP level. That’s not a better comeback story than Joe Flacco and his five starts? Regardless of the terrible way that award is voted on, Tagovailoa had a season that deserved to be celebrated.

Tagovailoa led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards. He had 29 touchdowns and a 101.1 passer rating. Tagovailoa’s 97.1 career passer rating is tied for 12th all-time among qualified passers, right ahead of Steve Young and Peyton Manning. Even if passer rating isn’t a great stat to compare quarterbacks across eras, Tagovailoa has become a remarkably productive passer. He was in the MVP conversation for most of last season and it was justified. He won’t get the credit he has earned because many analysts don’t like to backtrack on their takes, and the narrative on Tagovailoa early in his career was that he was a terrible pick ahead of Justin Herbert. But a career comparison with Herbert now is a lot closer than you’d be led to believe.

“We’re strong believers in him,” Dolphins general manager Chris Grier said. “And you guys all feel Mike’s passion about him when he talks about him. Just in the two years of what he’s done, he’s grown in areas to where he led the league in passing and did some great things this year. And we all feel there’s still another level he can take it.”

In the eyes of oddsmakers (and these offseason power rankings), the Dolphins have been passed by the Jets in the AFC East. The Dolphins are +200 to win the AFC East at BetMGM, behind the Bills (+165) and Jets (+190). Their win total of 9.5 and playoff odds (Miami making the playoffs has -155 odds) indicates that the Dolphins haven’t fallen too far, but some. On the player side of the odds, Tyreek Hill is the favorite to lead the NFL in receiving yards at +500 and he’s second in the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds behind Christian McCaffrey, at +800.

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “We’re entering Year 5 of the Tua Tagovailoa experience and it’s still difficult to discern how good he really is. One thing is certain — he hasn’t become an elite fantasy quarterback.

“Despite leading the NFL in YPA and quarterback rating two years ago and topping the league in passing yards last year, Tagovailoa has never charted higher than QB9. Tagovailoa is a reluctant runner and the Dolphins score a lot of their touchdowns on the ground.

“Part of it comes down to physical tools — Tagovailoa has ordinary arm strength and is undersized for the position, a modest 6-foot-1. He also struggled against better competition last year; most of his stronger starts came against lesser teams. If you want to slot Tagovailoa as a QB2 in a Superflex format, it might fit some roster builds. But if your league requires just one starter at the position, I’d like you to aim for a higher ceiling.”

Stat to remember

When you talk about the Dolphins’ 2023 season, it’s hard to avoid their lack of quality wins. The Dolphins were 10-1 against teams that didn’t have a winning record and 1-6 against winning teams. The only win over a good team was a Week 16 victory over the Cowboys that came on a field goal as time expired. There’s nothing wrong with a 22-20 home win over Dallas, but the Dolphins came that close to not having one quality win all season.

“I just think it’s a combination of things,” general manager Chris Grier said after the season. “We’ve played some good football teams and a majority of the games were fairly close late in the game, and for various reasons, we weren’t able to pull it out and win it.”

Being unable to beat a good opponent became a glaring deficiency late in the season when the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs beat Miami in games that had huge stakes for the Dolphins. Given the extreme splits against good and bad teams last season, it’s fair to wonder if the Dolphins’ 11-6 record was a mirage and unsustainable. The good news is Miami has the eighth easiest schedule this season via NFL analyst Warren Sharp. We know the Dolphins are adept at beating bad teams.

Burning question: Will the Dolphins’ defense be good enough?

Whether it was defensive coordinator Vic Fangio wanting to leave to the Eagles, personality conflicts with players or a difference in philosophy with Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins abruptly parted ways with Fangio after last season. McDaniel’s initial statement said when the Dolphins “assessed the season, it became apparent” that parting ways would be best for both parties. Then at the NFL scouting combine McDaniel said the change “wasn’t anticipated.” Fangio took a job with the Eagles one day after parting with the Dolphins.

Whatever happened, the Dolphins had to replace a very good coordinator. They hired Anthony Weaver, who was a respected assistant with the Ravens and a part of the suddenly growing Mike Macdonald defensive coaching tree. Personnel-wise, the Dolphins have some intriguing talent, especially in the secondary. Jalen Ramsey is still one of the NFL’s best corners, Kendall Fuller was a solid addition at corner alongside Ramsey and safety Jevon Holland had a fantastic 2023. The returns of Jaelan Phillips from a torn Achilles and Bradley Chubb from a torn ACL (those injuries were a big reason the Dolphins faded late) will be huge for the pass rush and the defense as a whole. It’s a pretty good bet the Dolphins offense will be among the best in the NFL. Last season Miami finished 19th in defensive DVOA, and whether Weaver’s defense is better or worse than that mark could determine if the Dolphins make it back to the playoffs.

Best-case scenario

What if the Dolphins hadn’t blown a 14-point lead in the final three minutes of a Week 14 game against the Tennessee Titans last season? They’d have finished with 12 wins, an AFC East title and they’d have played their first playoff game in sunny South Florida instead of a wind chill of minus-27 at Kansas City. There’s no guarantee they’d have won that home playoff game, but either way, we’d probably think about the Dolphins differently. We have seen the Dolphins’ offense cook in the running game and the passing game with a defense that’s good enough to win games. There’s no reason to believe the offense can’t lead the NFL in yardage again. Tua Tagovailoa shouldn’t be questioned anymore, Tyreek Hill could go for 2,000 yards, Jaylen Waddle is one of the best No. 2 receivers in the NFL and the running game with Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane and perhaps rookie Jaylen Wright will be very good again. The Dolphins led the NFL in yards per carry last season and that could repeat. Despite the old and dusty cliche, offense generally wins championships and Miami has plenty of that. If everything breaks right the Dolphins could finally win the AFC East and be in Super Bowl contention.

Nightmare scenario

Let’s not forget that just a year ago everyone was worried about Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion history. It’s not fun to discuss but that’s still part of his story. The stakes get even higher with his health when you consider Tagovailoa’s contract status. Even if Tagovailoa stays healthy, things could regress for the Dolphins. While it’s a skill to consistently beat losing teams, Miami’s record against winning teams last season indicates they weren’t nearly as good as most 11-win squads. There’s a reason the odds have the Dolphins as the third-place team in the AFC East. If the defense takes a step back with some key players leaving and coordinator Vic Fangio departing as well, maybe Miami loses enough high-scoring games to miss the playoffs. Given how last season started with such promise and finished with a thud, missing the postseason would be hard to swallow.

The crystal ball says …

Don’t forget that the AFC is loaded. If you don’t win your division, competition for wild card spots will be rugged. I don’t think Miami wins its division, which clouds its postseason outlook. The way Miami’s 2023 season played out, with a surprising lack of quality wins, is a bit concerning. There’s very little doubt that Miami’s offense will be very good again, health permitting. For now, I have the Dolphins in the top seven of the AFC and therefore in the playoff field, but it’s not a strong endorsement of Miami. The Dolphins will need to collect some quality wins early to solidify themselves as a contender in the AFC East, much less a Super Bowl contender.

THIS AND THAT

TOP TRIPLETS

Who has the best combo of QB1, RB1 and WR1?  When you have QB PATRICK MAHOMES at QB1, and you make TE TRAVIS KELCE into WR1, its tough not to be rated first.  CBSSports.com has a panel whose results are narrated by Jared Dubin:

Well, folks, it’s that time of the year around here once again. Just as we did last year and the year before that and the year before that and the year before that and the year before that and the year before that and the year before that, the crew here at CBSSports.com recently set out to rank each NFL team’s “triplets.”

Why not, right? It’s the middle of the offseason, and it’s tradition around these parts.

So in the space below, we are once again taking a look at the NFL’s best QB-RB-WR/TE trios, grading the expected starters at quarterback and running back and their presumed top pass-catcher for the 2024 NFL season. For some teams, it was obvious who would fill each role. For others, less so. Where we had to make judgment calls on which player would start at quarterback or who would be the top target, we did. For the most part, that meant deferring to the rookie quarterback, while the skill-position slot went to the more experienced player unless it was clear that the younger one would be taking a significant step forward. (So for example, the running back for the Titans is Tony Pollard, but for the Lions, it’s Jahmyr Gibbs.)

In the space below, you’ll see our rankings of these triplets. The first number in parentheses is the team’s average ranking based on the votes of several of our staff writers and editors atCBSSports.com, while the second number reflects the high and low end of where our staffers ranked that individual team.

For example, our No. 13 team, the Green Bay Packers had an average ranking of 11.7, with a high ranking of 4 and a low of 16. We have denoted tier breaks in any place where there was a significant gap between the two averages (i.e. the Falcons check in with an average of 15.2, while the aforementioned are at 11.7, so the Packers begin a new tier.

The panel of 12 voters for this season’s rankings included myself, Will Brinson, Jeff Kerr, Tyler Sullivan, Jordan Dajani, Bryan DeArdo, Cody Benjamin, Shanna McCarriston, Kevin Steimle, Garrett Podell, R.J. White, Eric Kernish, and Zach Pereles. The rankings reflect the collective wisdom of this crowd, while the corresponding analysis is mine.

Without further ado…

Tier 8: The Bottom

32. Denver Broncos (Avg: 31.2, High: 30, Low: 32)

Last year: 21st

QB: Bo Nix RB: Javonte Williams WR: Courtland Sutton

Nix was the last of the first-round quarterbacks selected in this year’s draft, and it would appear that there’s not quite as much confidence in him as the first few guys that came off the board. Williams is coming off a season where he looked slow and un-explosive in the wake of his ACL tear. Sutton put together a 10-touchdown campaign, but he also only caught 59 passes for 772 yards. It’s not that surprising to see this trio check in last.

31. New England Patriots (Avg: 30.6, High: 28, Low: 32)

Last year: 27th

QB: Drake Maye RB: Rhamondre Stevenson WR: Kendrick Bourne

Here’s another one of those rookie quarterbacks, who we gave the nod here because we expect him to take over for Jacoby Brissett before season’s end. The Pats do not have the most dynamic group of weapons surrounding him, but Stevenson has a recent season where he looked really good both running and catching the ball out of the backfield. If the Pats are to exceed this ranking, it’ll probably come through one of their young receivers (Ja’Lynn Polk, Demario Douglas, Javon Baker) grabbing the top pass-catcher role away from Bourne.

30. Carolina Panthers (Avg: 30.4, High: 28, Low: 32)

Last year: 28th

QB: Bryce Young RB: Jonathon Brooks WR: Diontae Johnson

The Panthers had a nightmare season in the first year of the Bryce Young era, and their first order of business this offseason was upgrading the talent around him. (In addition to Brooks and Johnson, they also drafted Xavier Leggette and Ja’Tavion Sanders.) Brooks is coming off a torn ACL and might not be full strength to start the year, but you don’t take a back high up in the second round if you’re not planning to give him a huge role. And Johnson has struggles with drops and inefficiency, but he at least gets open. The ranking reflects that the talent here is not great, but amazingly, it’s better than it was last year.

Tier 7: Holding Pattern

29. New York Giants (Avg: 28.8, High: 25, Low: 31)

Last year: 18th

QB: Daniel Jones RB: Devin Singletary WR: Malik Nabers

Daniel Jones under center and Devin Singletary behind him just screams “this is temporary.” New York tried unsuccessfully to replace Jones this offseason, and did not restructure his contract like it did last year, before it had even kicked in. Nabers is obviously here to stay, and hopefully for a long time, but it’s not surprising to see New York tumble from its over-inflated ranking last year.

28. Las Vegas Raiders (Avg: 27.8, High: 26, Low: 30)

Last year: 16th

QB: Aidan O’Connell RB: Zamir White WR: Davante Adams

Again, we’re going with O’Connell over Gardner Minshew here, because it wouldn’t make sense for Vegas not to roll with the younger guy so long as he shows a baseline level of competence. But O’Connell was basically just … fine last year and White is a fourth-round pick who has just 121 carries in two years. Adams is amazing, but apparently not amazing enough to single-handedly carry this group to a higher ranking.

Tier 6: Too Many Question Marks

27. Tennessee Titans (Avg: 25.8, High: 20, Low: 30)

Last year: 25th

QB: Will Levis RB: Tony Pollard TE: DeAndre Hopkins

Levis’ debut season was extremely up and down. We’ll see what he looks like in a more pass-friendly offense with an upgraded offensive line and pass-catchers. Pollard looked terrible early last year coming off his broken leg, but came on down the stretch. The Titans signed Calvin Ridley this offseason, but Hopkins is still the better player. The dude is a marvel. Alas, we can’t justify putting the Titans higher without knowing more about Levis.

26. Pittsburgh Steelers (Avg: 25.6, High: 20, Low: 27)

Last year: 22nd

QB: Russell Wilson RB: Najee Harris WR: George Pickens

Our panel is, once again, not inspired by Russell Wilson — or by the Steelers’ triplets. Harris is likely to remain the lead back due to inertia and financial investment, but he has been outplayed by Jaylen Warren in each of their Warren’s two seasons. Pickens has a ton of talent, but we also haven’t seen him totally tap into it just yet, so it’s hard to say he should carry this ranking.

25. Washington Commanders (Avg: 24.7, High: 20, Low: 28)

Last year: 29th

QB: Jayden Daniels RB: Austin Ekeler WR: Terry McLaurin

Daniels is ultra-talented. We know this. Everyone has been waiting a while to see McLaurin play with a real quarterback, and hopefully he has finally found one. Ekeler is coming off a down season, but he’s still really reliable — especially in the passing game. But it’s hard to say the Commies should be any higher than this given the uncertainty about how this trio will work on the field.

24. New Orleans Saints (Avg: 23.6, High: 18, Low: 27)

Last year: 29th

QB: Derek Carr RB: Alvin Kamara WR: Chris Olave

I’ll cop to being very surprised by both this ranking and the next one, for opposite reasons. I had New Orleans lower than this on my ballot. Carr just does not have the upside of many other quarterbacks. Kamara will turn 29 later this month and hasn’t topped 4.0 yards per carry in three years. His yards per catch hit a career low 6.2 last year. Olave is great, but the Saints should be further down the list.

23. Los Angeles Chargers (Avg: 22.2, High: 16, Low: 28)

Last year: 5th

QB: Justin Herbert RB: Gus Edwards WR: Josh Palmer

Conversely, I thought the Chargers would be higher than this, just on the strength of Herbert. I tended to weight the quarterback most in my own rankings, while my colleagues apparently felt like Edwards and Palmer should drag L.A.’s ranking down.

Tier 5: Slightly Below Average

22. Cleveland Browns (Avg: 20.6, High: 13, Low: 25)

Last year: 14th

QB: Deshaun Watson RB: Nick Chubb WR: Amari Cooper

Again, this is another team I think should be much lower. Watson has not played well since 2020. That’s four years ago. I don’t care what the reason is, you just do not see guys struggle for that long and suddenly get it back. Chubb is coming off a horrific knee injury and will turn 29 this season. The likelihood of his recapturing his (incredible) form is extremely low. If he even gets on the field. Cooper is awesome, but this ranking feels off.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Avg: 20.5, High: 17, Low: 25)

Last year: 10th

QB: Baker Mayfield RB: Rachaad White WR: Mike Evans

I am similarly skeptical that the Bucs should be this high. Mayfield rebounding last year … but we saw what happened with Geno Smith under Dave Canales two years ago, and then what happened when Canales left for Tampa last year. What’s to say the same won’t happen with Mayfield? And White has been a solid pass-catcher, but a wildly inefficient runner. Evans is a modern marvel and you can mark him down for 1,000 yards and close to double-digit touchdowns right now, but even he shouldn’t be carrying these guys this high.

Tier 5: Exciting Young QBs (and the Seahawks)

20. Minnesota Vikings (Avg: 19.9, High: 16, Low: 25)

Last year: 12th

QB: J.J. McCarthy RB: Aaron Jones WR: Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson, on the other hand, is more than enough to carry a team on his own. And Jones, despite being 29, is still playing at a really high level. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry last year and had a career-high 62% rushing success rate. McCarthy will also be put in a position to succeed by his supporting cast and a really strong playcaller in Kevin O’Connell. This is aggressive, but it also feels right.

19. Chicago Bears (Avg: 18.8, High: 14, Low: 24)

Last year: 20th

QB: Caleb Williams RB: D’Andre Swift WR: D.J. Moore

If we were able to include the entire skill-position corps in this rankings, the Bears would be even higher. Given where they were two years ago, the embarrassment of riches they know have is incredible. Not just Swift and Moore, but Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, and Cole Kmet. Williams is in arguably the best position of any No. 1 pick in recent memory. If he hits the ground running, Chicago should rank much higher next year.

18. Seattle Seahawks (Avg: 18.2, High: 15, Low: 23)

Last year: 13th

QB: Geno Smith RB: Kenneth Walker III WR: DK Metcalf

This is the same trio we used for Seattle as last season, but the Seahawks took a tumble after Smith took a step back. Given his contract situation, things could be tenuous this year — especially under a new coaching staff. But we’ve seen that he can hit a high ceiling, and we know both Walker and Metcalf have explosive talent. If things go well again, Seattle could jump back up.

17. Indianapolis Colts (Avg: 17.7, High: 12, Low: 25)

Last year: 24th

QB: Anthony Richardson RB: Jonathan Taylor WR: Michael Pittman Jr.

Richardson flashed enormous talent last year, albeit in only four games. But Colts coach Shane Steichen always gets the best out of his quarterbacks, and Richardson’s best is likely to be extremely good, given his physical gifts. Taylor is one of the best pure runners in the game, and Pittman thrived last year with Minshew under center. There’s a lot of upside here.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars (Avg: 16.2, High: 10, Low: 21)

Last year: 7th

QB: Trevor Lawrence RB: Travis Etienne WR: Christian Kirk

The Jags took a step back last year, and they accordingly took a step back in our rankings as people now have muddled expectations for what to expect from this group. Lawrence has an ultra-high ceiling, but we haven’t seen him truly access it yet. Are Doug Pederson and Press Taylor the guys to get him there? He has enough talent around him, even if there are no true stars.

15. Arizona Cardinals (Avg: 15.2, High: 8, Low: 22)

Last year: 32nd

QB: Kyler Murray RB: James Conner WR: Marvin Harrison Jr.

Arizona was dead last a year ago because we expected Murray to sit out the majority, if not entirety of the season. He did sit for a while, but he came back and looked pretty good. And Arizona’s Conner-led run game was really good all year. Throw one of the best receiver prospects in recent memory into the mix, and it’s no surprise that the Cards took a massive leap in our rankings.

Tier 4: The Falcons

14. Atlanta Falcons (Avg: 15.2, High: 8, Low: 22)

Last year: 26th

QB: Kirk Cousins RB: Bijan Robinson WR: Drake London

We elevated the Falcons into their own tier because unlike all the teams in Part I of the rankings, they got at least one vote in the single-digits. This is right around where I had them in my own rankings (15th), but I have to admit to some skepticism of Cousins’ ability to just get right back to his recent level of play so quickly after tearing his Achilles — especially at his age. Hopefully, the Falcons use Robinson and London (and Kyle Pitts) more often under their new coaching staff.

Tier 3: Apparent Upside

13. Green Bay Packers (Avg: 11.7, High: 4, Low: 16)

Last year: 23rd

QB: Jordan Love RB: Josh Jacobs WR: Jayden Reed

Thanks to Love’s debut season, the offseason addition of Jacobs, and the greater certainty about whichever pass-catcher we were going to use in this spot (there was debate between Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and even internet favorite Dontayvion Wicks), I knew the Packers were going to be one of our biggest risers. I’m a little bit surprised they didn’t get even higher than this, given the leaguewide excitement about Love. But as you can see, they did get a vote as high as No. 4, so there’s clearly a lot of optimism here.

12. Dallas Cowboys (Avg: 10.9, High: 3, Low: 18)

Last year: 6th

QB: Dak Prescott RB: Rico Dowdle WR: CeeDee Lamb

Despite Prescott and Lamb having the best seasons of their respective careers, the Cowboys took a rather sizable step back in this year’s rankings. Obviously, there is less excitement about Dowdle (and/or Ezekiel Elliott) than there was about Pollard heading into last season, but I think a significant part of Dallas’ fall is related to the general dissatisfaction with the team’s offseason, which has been pretty disastrous. Dak and CeeDee should again play at a really, really high level, and the Cowboys should probably be a bit higher than this.

11. Buffalo Bills (Avg: 10.7, High: 6, Low: 15)

Last year: 4th

QB: Josh Allen RB: James Cook TE: Dalton Kincaid

It’s a bit odd to see Josh Allen’s team outside the top five, let alone the top 10, but when you downgrade your top pass-catcher from Stefon Diggs to a second-year tight end who averaged 9.2 yards per reception last year, that’s the kind of thing that happens. Still, given Allen’s otherworldly talent, it feels like the Bills have a lot of upside beyond where they fall in these rankings.

10. Miami Dolphins (Avg: 9.5, High: 4, Low: 13)

Last year: 10th

QB: Tua Tagovailoa RB: Raheem Mostert WR: Tyreek Hill

We made the decision to go with Mostert here, rather than De’Von Achane, because we’re looking for each team’s presumptive leader at the position. Achane is an absurd talent, but he’s also slight and the Dolphins seemingly managed his touches in Year 1, and he still missed a bunch of the season due to an injury. Still, Miami has a lot of explosiveness here; and if they had a more physically talented quarterback (our panel generally thinks Tua is slightly above average; he had a “4” grade in our offensive infrastructure rankings earlier this offseason), the Dolphins might be even higher on the list.

9. New York Jets (Avg: 9.2, High: 6, Low: 13)

Last year: 9th

QB: Aaron Rodgers RB: Breece Hall WR: Garrett Wilson

Look, this is just too high for me. (I was one of the two panelists who had New York at No. 13.) Rodgers will turn 41 years old in December, he is coming off a torn Achilles, and it’s now been three years since we’ve seen him play at his peak. Hall made a terrific recovery from his torn ACL and Wilson is a superstar hiding in plain sight due to the horrendous quarterback play he’s had to deal with to date, but the uncertainty about what we’re actually going to get from Rodgers (and what plane of existence he currently occupies) makes me hesitant to expect big things from the Jets.

8. Houston Texans (Avg: 8.9, High: 5, Low: 12)

Last year: 30th

QB: C.J. Stroud RB: Joe Mixon WR: Nico Collins

The single biggest riser in our rankings, unsurprisingly, is the Texans. It looked like Stroud had one of the NFL’s worst supporting casts heading into last season, but he both rose above it and revealed that Collins is actually a really, really good No. 1 receiver. Throw in Tank Dell and Diggs, and Houston is cooking with gas heading into 2024. Mixon, though, holds the group back a bit. His reputation outpaces his game at this point, as he has now been at 4.1 yards per carry or worse for five straight seasons, with two of those falling below 4.0 per carry.

Tier 2: Just Shy of Elite

7. Detroit Lions (Avg: 7.4, High: 4, Low: 10)

Last year: 15th

QB: Jared Goff RB: Jahmyr Gibbs WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Imagine telling someone at the top of the Matthew Stafford trade that three seasons later, not only would Goff still be the quarterback of the Lions, not only would the Lions be right next to the Rams in these rankings, but also that Detroit would be widely considered one of the best teams in the NFL. What a world! The Lions keep Goff well protected, and that allows him to get the ball to their cadre of explosive playmakers, with ARSB and Gibbs being two of the three top targets (along with Sam LaPorta).

6. Los Angeles Rams (Avg: 6.9, High: 2, Low: 15)

Last year: 17th

QB: Matthew Stafford RB: Kyren Williams WR: Puka Nacua

Speaking of the Rams… what a rise for L.A. after a wildly disappointing 2022 season. The dual breakout of Williams and Nacua was one of the best stories of 2023, and they, along with Cooper Kupp returning healthy from the injury that limited him last offseason and Stafford being able to stay upright behind a much-improved offensive line, led to an L.A. resurgence. I’ll admit to being surprised about that No. 2 vote, but they deserve to be in this group of teams.

5. Cincinnati Bengals (Avg: 5.5, High: 3, Low: 12)

Last year: 1st

QB: Joe Burrow RB: Zack Moss WR: Ja’Marr Chase

At their best, we know the kind of upside a Burrow-led Bengals offense featuring Chase has. But Burrow has now missed significant time in two of his four seasons, and played through injury in another. Coupled with the injury Chase suffered last year and the perceived downgrade from Mixon to Moss, and I suppose it’s not surprise to see Cincinnati take a bit of a fall and reside just outside the top group of teams, all of which had at least one vote as the No. 1 trio.

Tier 1: Best of the Best

4. San Francisco 49ers (Avg: 4.7, High: 1, Low: 14)

Last year: 11th

QB: Brock Purdy RB: Christian McCaffrey WR: Brandon Aiyuk

This time last year, we weren’t even definitely sure that Purdy would be starting under center for the 49ers, as he was still recovering from elbow surgery and Trey Lance was still on the roster. Then he hit the ground running and emerged as an MVP candidate, with another one of his top targets (Deebo Samuel) campaigning for him (and not McCaffrey) down the stretch of the season. San Francisco has an embarrassment of skill-position riches and Purdy is clearly good, but if he had more physical ability and/or if we were using the entire pass-catching corps instead of just one player, San Francisco would surely check in even higher than this.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (Avg: 3.5, High: 1, Low: 26)

Last year: 3rd

QB: Jalen Hurts RB: Saquon Barkley WR: A.J. Brown

Hurts took a step backward last season, but he remains extremely talented, and his blend of rushing ability and deep passing make him extremely dangerous. Brown is both an elite deep threat and an elite yards-after-catch creator. Barkley… has a reputation that overshadows his recent production, but he also has not played behind an offensive line as good as Philly’s, nor with a quarterback as good as Hurts. If those factors can make him a more consistent runner than the boom-bust type of guy he has been for most of his career, that can add a whole different element to the Eagles offense.

2. Baltimore Ravens (Avg: 3.4, High: 1, Low: 11)

Last year: 8th

QB: Lamar Jackson RB: Derrick Henry TE: Mark Andrews

The reigning MVP got himself a new backfield partner. Henry is old for a running back (30), has carried the ball 1,529 times over the last five years, and hit a career-low of 4.2 yards per carry in 2023. But he’s also a physical marvel, and like Barkley, has not played behind a good line or with a quarterback as good as Lamar. He’s still the type of guy who needs only a sliver of space to devastate a defense. And Andrews is one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the league, and likely still Jackson’s top target, even with the emergence of Zay Flowers.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (Avg: 2.3, High: 1, Low: 4)

Last year: 2nd

QB: Patrick Mahomes RB: Isiah Pacheco TE: Travis Kelce

The Chiefs are back where they belong, right at No. 1. Mahomes is the best player in the world. Pacheco is clearly a quality back. And Kelce, even if he has his reps managed during the regular season, remains an absolute stone-cold killer of a receiver when it matters.