The Daily Briefing Wednesday, July 19, 2023
THE DAILY BRIEFING
| Mike Florio has a source who says people who have never played a down of football in their lives (and the guy who ironically now employs the NFL’s highest paid RB) have de-valued the running back position.
Running backs are confused. They’re angry. And for good reason.
Pro football has targeted the running back position as a vehicle for saving cap dollars that can be devoted to other positions. While it has become a major point of contention in recent weeks for the league’s current veteran running backs, it has been happening for years.
At one level, it’s a basic matter of supply and demand. Every major college produces every single year a tailback capable of performing in the NFL, if: (1) the line can open holes; (2) the player can keep possession of the ball when hit by NFL-caliber defenders; and (3) the player can be trusted to pick up blitzers in pass protection.
Every year, dozens of running backs head to the draft. Some are drafted. Plenty aren’t. Some who aren’t get signed as free agents. Some of those who are undrafted (like Austin Ekeler) become great running backs in the NFL.
This guarantee of a constant flow of more players at the position makes those already playing the position interchangeable. It’s no different than kickers and punters. There are more good ones than the game needs. So, as a matter of basic NFL business, why not flip from an older and more expensive player to a younger and cheaper one?
Look at what the Cowboys did after the 2014 season. DeMarco Murray set the franchise single-season rushing record, with 1,845 yards. More than Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett. More than Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith. Murray also led the league that year.
And, in 2015, the Cowboys let him walk away in free agency.
To replace Murray, the Cowboys signed McFadden signed a two-year, $5.85 million deal. Murray inked a five-year, $40 million contract with the Eagles.
In his first year in Philadelphia, Murray rushed for 702 yards in 15 games. That same season, McFadden produced 1,089 yards.
That’s the mindset. All players are interchangeable parts in a broader football machine. Some are more interchangeable than others. Running backs fall into that category.
One source with extensive knowledge of the dynamics that have resulted in the current running back market explained it like this: “Fundamentally, people don’t think that it’s a position that leads to greater expected points and surplus value. It’s a salary cap league, with finite resources. That matters. So teams will spend on quarterbacks, receivers, pass rushers, and corner. Those are the positions that provide the most surplus.”
Surplus value is the key. When paying more to a player than most players at a given position get, what is the team getting? Is it enough to justify the investment? At key positions where the best players are so much better than the average player, it is. At positions like running back, it isn’t.
As the source added: “Blame Mike Shanahan and the analytics community.”
It was Mike Shanahan who first showed that he could plug any running back into his system and have success moving the ball on the ground. After Terrell Davis suffered a torn ACL, Olandis Gary stepped in with a 1,159-yard season. The next year, Mike Anderson had 1,489.
Mike’s son, Kyle, has done the same thing. Every year since he was hired, Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers have had a different rushing leader: Carlos Hyde (2017); Matt Breida (2018); Raheem Mostert (2019); Jeff Wilson (2020); Elijah Mitchell (2021); and Christian McCaffrey (2022).
The irony, of course, is that the 49ers currently have the highest-paid running back in football, in Christian McCaffrey on the roster. They clearly believe he has surplus value.
Surely, at least a few others in the NFL do, too. McCaffrey, while great, isn’t an outlier. Contractually, however, he is.
So that’s the problem. That’s the issue. As much as the veteran running backs want it to change, it won’t. Not in an environment with a salary cap that lumps all positions into the same bucket.
Any solution must come from some other place, whether it’s a quicker path to free agency or (our preference) a league-wide fund that pays running backs for yards and touchdowns and playing time.
The current system for playing players created the market dynamics. It’s hard to imagine the current system dramatically changing simply because older players aren’t happy about their financial situation.
Especially when there’s an annual group of young players waiting for the chance to eventually become underpaid veterans. |
| NFC EAST |
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DALLAS G ZACK MARTIN wants some more of Jerry Jones’ moolah. Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com: The Cowboys are due to report to training camp next week, but one key member of the team may not be joining them.
Adam Schefter of ESPN reports that right guard Zack Martin is considering not reporting to camp with the rest of the team. Martin is contemplating that course of action because he is unhappy with his contract.
Martin signed a six-year extension with the Cowboys in 2018 and has two years left on the pact. He is set to make $13.5 million this year and has a non-guaranteed basesalary of $13 million for the 2024 season.
A source told Schefter that Martin believes he is “woefully underpaid relative to the market” and is considering a training camp holdout because the team has been unwilling to revisit the pact. Martin, who is heading into his 10th season, will be subject to fines if he does not report to camp with the rest of the team, but Wednesday’s report suggests that won’t stop him from taking that course of action. |
| NFC WEST |
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LOS ANGELES RAMS Casual or not, the Rams admit to having shopped QB MATTHEW STAFFORD. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: Rams COO Kevin Demoff isn’t exactly denying that his team considered moving on from quarterback Matthew Stafford this offseason, but he is downplaying talk that the Rams wanted to get rid of the quarterback who won a Super Bowl for them just 17 months ago.
Demoff said on the 11 Personnel podcast that teams reached out for “casual conversations” about acquiring Stafford.
“Those conversations frustrated me because I think it’s trying to inject narratives that aren’t there,” Demoff said, via USA Today. “I know there are reports that we tried to trade Matthew. We were not actively trying to trade Matthew. I know Les has rebuffed that before. It’s just not the case. I think if you wanted to be in the reality of the NFL, there are 10 teams this year, at least, that are going to have different quarterbacks. We were obviously aggressive in remaking our roster in March. It would be naive to think that people didn’t inquire about what was going to happen with the player who the year before won the Super Bowl. It’s different than whether people inquire, whether there are casual conversations.”
Demoff said the Rams still view Stafford as their franchise quarterback, but also didn’t rule out the possibility of a trade.
“He is a pillar, we value him highly,” Demoff said of Stafford. “Now, again, if someone did come in offering a ridiculous trade package, I think you owe it to your organization to listen the same way you would anyone. I think Les said people called about nine players during the offseason. That’s grown probably since that time.”
Demoff denied that the Rams discussed restructuring Stafford’s contract and said the team is fully prepared to keep him on the books on a deal that has an affordable cap hit of $20 million this year but cap hits of about $50 million a year for the next three years..
“The part that frustrated me was this notion that we were trying to get away from the $59 million and that was the only way to do it through trade,” Demoff said. “That tells you that you didn’t have an understanding of the situation. Matthew’s dollars after 2022 were unguaranteed. We could’ve walked away this year, free and clear, for $0. No future money owed. So there was no need to restructure. If we wanted out of Matthew’s deal, we could’ve walked away. We didn’t have to trade him to relieve the $58.5 million. We could’ve just walked away. To me, that’s where there’s a fundamental understanding of what his deal was that drives the narrative, ‘Oh, we were desperately trying to get rid of that.’”
For now, the Rams say they’re not trying to get rid of Stafford. Next year, that certainly could change. So, if Stafford were gone – who is next man up at QB for the Rams at the current moment? It appears to be rookie QB STETON BENNETT out of Georgia. Former Broncos backup BRETT RYPIEN is also on the roster as is someone called DRESSER WYNN. Dresser Winn is an undrafted rookie free agent from Tennessee-Martin. He only started one year at QB for the Skyhawks, and also served as the team’s punter. He did get Second Team All-OVC honors in 2022, his one full season at QB. Hometown is Dresden, Tennessee. |
| AFC NORTH |
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PITTSBURGH EDGE ALEX HIGHSMITH has been extended per Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com: The Steelers have locked down one of their key defensive players for years to come.
Pittsburgh and edge rusher Alex Highsmith have agreed to terms on a four-year extension worth $68 million, according to multiple reports.
A third-round pick in the 2020 draft, Highsmith became a full-time starter in 2021, recording 6.0 sacks, 15 tackles for loss, and 15 QB hits.
But he broke out in a big way last season, tallying 14.5 sacks, 12 tackles for loss, and 20 quarterback hits. He also led the league with five forced fumbles.
Highsmith is now set to play opposite 2021 AP Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt for the foreseeable future. |
| AFC EAST |
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MIAMI QB TUA TAGOVIALOA understands there are those who doubt his ability to stay healthy. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: The Dolphins, somewhat surprisingly, picked up quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s fifth-year option. Not surprisingly, he has not yet received a second multi-year contract.
The latter hasn’t happened because he has yet to prove to the team that he’s the long-term answer at the position. So what does he think he needs to do to show them he’s the guy?
“I think I’ve got to do what I’ve been doing this past year, outside of injuries,” Tagovailoa said Tuesday, via Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post. “Just the way I play football, play my style of football. But I think the things that have hurt me have been just the injuries. And so I’ve been working really hard to hopefully, elongate myself, you know, throughout to withstand seasons. And so we’ll see how all that plays out. And God willing, I can make it through the entire season and we can win a playoff game, we can win a Super Bowl, all of that good stuff.”
If he can do “all of that good stuff,” he’ll get a second contract after the season. But if he can’t avoid injuries (specifically, concussions) in 2023, he likely won’t get a long-term deal in 2024.
As to the fifth-year option, it remains a bit odd that the Dolphins would fully guarantee a significant salary for 2024, given the lingering injury/concussion concerns. Given the manner in which the team has previously kept Tua wondering about his status with the team (when pursuing Deshaun Watson and Tom Brady, for example), it’s possible the Dolphins felt compelled to not force Tua to spend 2023 wondering whether he has security for 2024.
Come 2024, however, he could spend the season wondering whether he has security for 2025. Whether he does depends on whether he can — like most starting quarterbacks — stay on the field for all of the 2023 season, or something close to it. |
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THIS AND THAT |
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BEST BETS Austin Mock of The Athletic checks the current division odds versus what his scientific formulas for success. But since we are getting so close to the season, it’s time to look at how each division will play out and which teams are over or undervalued heading into the season. When we are talking about value, it’s always best to look at what the experts in the sports betting industry are thinking.
For this exercise, I’ll be using my NFL Projection Model, which projects overall team strength, and simulate the entire season 100,000 times and see how likely a team is to win their respective division. From there, I’m able to compare the results to the betting markets and then identify the teams worth wagering on and the teams to avoid.
As always, make sure to shop around at different sportsbooks as prices vary and every cent matters.
(NOTE: All bets are to win 0.5 units on favorites and risk 0.5 units on underdogs unless otherwise noted.)
AFC East
Buffalo Bills +130 New York Jets +250 Miami Dolphins +275 New England Patriots +750
Most overvalued team – New England Patriots The Patriots are the least likely team to win the AFC East per my projections and the oddsmakers, but that doesn’t mean they still can’t be overvalued. In a division this stacked — it’s the best division in football in my opinion — you can’t afford to have a lackluster offense. Maybe the addition of offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien can get Mac Jones back to his 2021 level of production (16th out of 38 qualified quarterbacks in EPA/dropback) rather than his 2022 output (32nd out of 39 qualified quarterbacks). His production likely ends up in the middle of those two seasons, but in a division this strong and facing the toughest schedule in the NFL, New England will need Jones to have his best season yet if the Patriots hope to contend for the division.
Best bet – Buffalo Bills to win the AFC East (+130) The Bills are looking to win the division for a fourth consecutive year and I think they’re the best bang for your buck. Buffalo has the best quarterback in the division (as well as the best offense) and they’ll also have a defense that rates inside the top 10 according to my projections. The schedule is tough, yes, but no one in the division will have an easy road so that evens things out a bit. My model currently rates the Bills as the third-best team in the NFL and as long as Josh Allen is behind center, the road to the AFC East crown will run through Buffalo.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals +150 Baltimore Ravens +220 Cleveland Browns +400 Pittsburgh Steelers +450
Most overvalued team – Pittsburgh Steelers There is a lot to be excited about when it comes to the Steelers, but a lot of the optimism seems to be banking on a second-year leap from quarterback Kenny Pickett. Pickett played really well down the stretch (against a weaker schedule), but he still might be the fourth-best quarterback in the division. The AFC North isn’t as strong as the AFC East in my model, but it’s not far off. If the Steelers want to contend for a division title, they’ll need a Trevor Lawrence-esque sophomore season from Pickett and he’s just not the same level of prospect.
Best bet – Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North (+220) The Ravens locked up Lamar Jackson for the long term and are reshaping their offense in hopes of jump-starting a unit that has gotten a little stale the past few seasons. Jackson’s 2019 MVP season feels like ages ago and Baltimore seems to have agreed as the Ravens hired Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken, signed free-agent receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted receiver Zay Flowers in the first round of the NFL Draft. I’m a big fan of Monken, and if the improved receiving corps can give a boost to the passing game, you could see a more-balanced offense thrive in tandem with Jackson’s running ability.
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars -155 Tennessee Titans +325 Indianapolis Colts +550 Houston Texans +900
Most overvalued team – Indianapolis Colts Listen, the AFC South has the potential to be very bad, but the Colts being priced around 15 percent to win their division is a bit wild to me. Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is a super raw prospect who is likely going to take some time to adjust to the speed of the NFL and it’s hardly a sure thing that Richardson will be the Week 1 starter. If you aren’t going to get a full 17 weeks of Richardson’s potential, the rest of this roster isn’t good enough to win the division 15 percent of the time with subpar quarterback play.
Best bet – Tennessee Titans to win the AFC South (+325) (risk 0.25 units) The Titans made big headlines last week by signing DeAndre Hopkins which gives them a true No. 1 option at the wide receiver position next to second-year player Treylon Burks. Running back Derrick Henry has some mileage but a better passing attack should ease some of the burden. I’m not super high on Tennessee, but head coach Mike Vrabel has repeatedly found a way to surprise and I expect similar results with two rookie quarterbacks in the division. The Jaguars are the rightful division favorites and another step forward from Trevor Lawrence likely cooks this bet, but the Titans should be closer to 30 percent odds to win the division than 20 percent.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs -165 Los Angeles Chargers +300 Denver Broncos +500 Las Vegas Raiders +1400
Most overvalued team – Los Angeles Chargers Quarterback Justin Herbert is terrific and the Chargers have plenty of other big names on both sides of the ball, but they’re still not deserving of a 25 percent chance to win the AFC West when Patrick Mahomes is still around. The Chargers upgraded at offensive coordinator by hiring Kellen Moore from the Cowboys, but it’s not enough of a change to catapult Herbert into Mahomes territory. Honestly, I’m a fan of this Chargers team. It’s just the Mahomes problem. The Chiefs QB is too good and drains a lot of value out of the division similar to Tom Brady’s AFC East run in New England. Yes, I’m comfortable making that comparison.
Best bet – Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West (-165) If you didn’t follow my blurb above, I’m, again, bullish on the Chiefs heading into the season. Last year I laid a big number on the Chiefs to make the playoffs because I thought they were underpriced. I think the value here is pretty similar. Mahomes is special. And until he’s priced absurdly high — a 62 percent chance to win the division is not that — I can’t pass up the value.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles -110 Dallas Cowboys +170 New York Giants +750 Washington Commanders +1000
Most overvalued team – New York Giants I don’t know what happens with running back Saquon Barkley but his dynamic ability is key to this offense… and more importantly, quarterback Daniel Jones. Jones’ ability to run the ball last year was a pleasant surprise and a lot of that came off the threat of Barkley. Yes, head coach Brian Daboll is a mastermind on the offensive side of the ball, but explosive playmakers make life a lot easier. I think last year’s performance was the ceiling for Jones, regression is coming and I don’t think it ends well for the Giants.
Best bet – None. No team emerged as having great value to win the NFC East in my model so I’m staying away.
NFC North
Detroit Lions +130 Minnesota Vikings +280 Chicago Bears +400 Green Bay Packers +400
Most overvalued team – Chicago Bears The Bears have a high ceiling but also a really low floor. Justin Fields’ progression as a passer will determine the team’s success and I’m just not sure if we see that this season. I’m ultimately a Fields believer, but the roster isn’t quite there for him to have a ton of success. Sure, the rest of the division has question marks and there isn’t a great team, but I think Chicago is clearly the worst team heading into 2023 and well off the pace of the Lions and Vikings.
Best bet – Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North (+280) Yes, it’s true that the Vikings were worse than their record last year and were fortunate to achieve what they did with so many close wins. But I also believe we are getting a little ahead of ourselves with the Detroit Lions love. I think Minnesota and Detroit are a step above the Packers and Bears, but I don’t think there is a huge difference between the two tiers. I believe in the Vikings’ offense behind quarterback Kirk Cousins and receiver Justin Jefferson. But I think the most important driver of their success this year will be the hiring of Brian Flores as defensive coordinator. The Minnesota defense was, uh, bad last season, to say the least. Flores is a great mind that I think will pay dividends almost immediately.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints +125 Atlanta Falcons +220 Carolina Panthers +350 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +750
Most overvalued team – Carolina Panthers There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Panthers over the next few seasons. They found their franchise quarterback in No. 1 pick Bryce Young and the other teams in the division either don’t have their guy at quarterback or the rest of the roster is subpar (or both). However, I’m not going to expect super-efficient play from Young right out of the gate. I think Carolina is firmly the third-best team in the division and being projected to win the division around 22 percent of the time is a bit steep for where this roster is right now.
Best bet – New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South (+125) It may be strange, but Derek Carr appears to be the best quarterback in the division entering this season. Sure, Young might be the future (and even Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder could surprise), but Carr has a clear edge for this season and this season only. If Carr puts up his normal average-to-above-average efficiency with the Saints weapons, New Orleans should cruise through the easiest schedule in the NFL and host a playoff game come January.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers -165 Seattle Seahawks +195 Los Angeles Rams +900 Arizona Cardinals +2500
Most overvalued team – San Francisco 49ers What should we expect from the 49ers’ quarterback position this season? Brock Purdy is going to be sidelined, Trey Lance is inexperienced and the other option, Sam Darnold, has yet to live up to his lofty draft slot. Coach Kyle Shanahan is one of, if not my favorite coach in the NFL but he’s going to have his work cut out for him this season. Throw in some turnover on the defensive side of the ball (including defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans) and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the defense take a small step back from elite to great. Can the 49ers afford a dropoff in quarterback play and defensive production? I’m not willing to bet a premium price on that, that’s for sure.
Best bet – Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC West (+900) (risk 0.1 units) You can’t get through a preview without a little optimism about a team that might be a complete disaster. The Rams may ultimately lead the league in rookie snaps this season, but that doesn’t change the fact that quarterback Matthew Stafford, receiver Cooper Kupp, and defensive lineman Aaron Donald can all be game-changing stars. Add in that Sean McVay is one of the better head coaches in the league and that’s something to get excited about. The Cardinals appear to be in tank mode while the 49ers have the abovementioned concerns. Did Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith play to his ceiling in 2022? Could we see regression there? If the Rams’ stars can stay healthy, they could make a run and that’s worth a little sprinkle at 9-to-1 in my mind. The last time the Lions actually finished 1st in their division was 1993. Have they ever been a preseason favorite to finish first since? |
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THREE-YEAR PROJECTIONS A big visionary project from ESPN.com as they make three-year projections for each team. We will show you the top five, some other interesting clubs and the bottom five (you can see them all here): Yes, every NFL team wants to win in 2023. But savvy franchises also keep an eye to the future and set themselves up for long-term success. Which teams will continue to pile up wins and show steady improvement over the next few years? In our annual Future Power Rankings, we focused on the next three seasons (2023 through 2025) and stacked all 32 clubs’ longer-term expectations.
To do so, we asked our panel of experts — Dan Graziano, Louis Riddick and Seth Walder — to rate each team’s quarterback situation, remaining (non-QB) roster, drafting ability/capital, front office and coaching using this scale:
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100: A+ (Elite) 90: A (Great) 80: B (Very good) 70: C (Average) 60: D (Very bad) 50 and below: F (Disastrous)
After averaging the results from the panelists, each of the five categories was weighted to create the overall score: roster (30%), quarterback (20%), draft (15%), front office (15%) and coaching (20%). The result is a comprehensive ranking based on how well each team is positioned for the future. Our experts then picked out reasons for optimism, reasons to worry and crucial stats to know for every franchise.
1. Philadelphia Eagles Overall score: 94.1
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 97.0 1 Quarterback 94.7 4 Coaching 89.7 7 Draft 89.3 2 Front office 98.0 1
Reason for hope: Jeez, you name it. The Eagles have a loaded roster; a front office that has shown a deft ability to maintain and replenish through the draft, trades and free agency; a head coach who has established a Super Bowl-caliber culture in just two seasons; and an exciting, young franchise quarterback who’s locked in long term and appears driven to be great. The Philadelphia sports fan might not be inclined toward optimism, but this team should be changing that. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Going into 2022, some wondered whether coach Nick Sirianni and quarterback Jalen Hurts were the right combination for the future of this team. Those concerns no longer exist. Instead, focus has shifted to the amount of talent on the coaching staff that has left the organization over the past few months. Both coordinators have gone on to become head coaches, leaving new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson and defensive coordinator Sean Desai to lead what is arguably the best roster in the NFL back to the Super Bowl — and win it this time. Can that duo get it done? — Riddick
Stat to know: Defensive tackle Jordan Davis was limited to only 217 defensive snaps during his rookie season but did show serious promise as a run-stuffer. His 41% run stop win rate as an interior rusher would have ranked seventh at the position had he qualified, and his 1.1 yards of push (vertical movement in the first 2.5 seconds of a run play, per ESPN metrics using NFL Next Gen Stats) would have ranked fifth. — Walder
2. Kansas City Chiefs Overall score: 93.4
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 89.7 5 Quarterback 100.0 1 Coaching 99.3 1 Draft 87.7 3 Front office 89.7 5
Reason for hope: “Patrick Mahomes” could stand as a simple yet comprehensive two-word reason for optimism. He’s signed through 2031, and as long as he’s in Kansas City, the Chiefs should be competing for titles. But the fact that so many rookies played key roles in last season’s Super Bowl run shows there’s even more reason to be bullish on the Chiefs’ future. The coaching staff and front office have proven they can build around the generational quarterback to keep competing at a high level. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Tight end Travis Kelce will be 34 years old in October. Since 2018, he is second in the league in receptions (507), third in receiving yards (6,444) and fourth in receiving TDs (47). While Mahomes is one of the best QBs we have seen, life after Kelce would be starting to keep me awake at night if I were GM Brett Veach. The Chiefs do not have any offensive skill position players on the roster who are ready to handle that kind of responsibility. — Riddick
Stat to know: The Chiefs’ biggest advantage is Mahomes, and they lean into it. On early downs when the game was in question (win probability between 15% and 85%) last season, the Chiefs ran designed pass plays 67% of the time — most in the league. That’s exactly where they should rank, given who is throwing those passes for them. — Walder
3. Cincinnati Bengals Overall score: 91.0
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 91.7 3 Quarterback 96.7 2 Coaching 89.7 7 Draft 85.3 5 Front office 89.7 5
Reason for hope: Drafting Joe Burrow changed everything for this franchise, and his burning desire to win at the highest level should continue paying off for the Bengals for the foreseeable future — especially if his new contract comes with the same team-friendly structure Mahomes’ deal did for the Chiefs. That would enable them to keep more of their young talent for longer, only increasing the reason for optimism in a place that never used to have any around its football team. — Graziano
Reason for concern: It’s still about the play of the offensive line — and will continue to be about the play of the offensive line — until the Bengals get this unit corrected. The Bengals came within a play of possibly winning the Super Bowl during the 2021 season, despite the fact that Burrow was sacked 51 times during the regular season and 19 more times in the postseason. In 2022, the rebuilt OL was still 30th in the NFL in pass block win rate. In the AFC Championship Game, Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones had two sacks and eight pressures and basically wrecked the game. The addition of Orlando Brown Jr. to play left tackle and the shifting of Jonah Williams to the right side are the latest moves to make this unit better, but we’ll see how it works. — Riddick
Stat to know: Trey Hendrickson remains underrated as a high-end pass-rusher. Though he had just eight sacks last season, his pass rush win rate at edge was 25%, which ranked fourth in the league behind only Micah Parsons, Haason Reddick and Myles Garrett. — Walder
T-4. Baltimore Ravens Overall score: 89.9
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 88.0 6 Quarterback 92.7 5 Coaching 92.7 3 Draft 83.3 8 Front office 93.0 2
Reason for hope: Stability and a long track record of competence both in the front office and on the coaching staff are the main reasons there’s always optimism in Baltimore. General manager Eric DeCosta and coach John Harbaugh have kept the franchise competitive year in and year out. Plus, quarterback Lamar Jackson is still only 26 and one of the most thrilling players in the league. If he can stay healthy and take to the new offense, the Ravens could be really good for a really long time. — Graziano
Reason for concern: In last year’s Future Power Rankings, I was worried about the Ravens’ philosophical approach and offensive personnel going forward under then-OC Greg Roman’s direction. With the veteran addition of Odell Beckham Jr. and the drafting of Zay Flowers in the first round, I’m in a much better place on the wide receiver talent. Bringing in new offensive coordinator Todd Monken should take the passing game — and specifically play-action out of 12 personnel — to levels it hasn’t achieved to this point, but it is still an unknown. — Riddick
Stat to know: Roquan Smith, whom the Ravens signed to an extension this offseason, ranked fifth in run stop win rate (41%) among linebackers last season. His coverage numbers were a little down; he allowed 1.0 yards per coverage snap, slightly worse than the 0.9 average for linebackers, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But he has been stronger in that category in the past, with just 0.6 yards per coverage snap allowed in 2020. — Walder
T-4. Buffalo Bills Overall score: 89.9
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 86.7 7 Quarterback 96.0 3 Coaching 91.3 5 Draft 83.7 7 Front office 92.7 3
Reason for hope: Buffalo’s highest grade came in the quarterback category, and Josh Allen remains its biggest strength. But the Bills also scored in the 90s in coaching and front office, and it’s important to remember that, like all of the teams in this range, the culture that the Bills’ leadership has established is central to Buffalo’s long-term prognosis. — Graziano
Reason for concern: The pass rush is still a major concern going forward, and we saw it last year when Von Miller was lost for the season. Miller is coming off a major injury at age 34, and there isn’t anyone else on the roster who shows game-changing pass-rush tools. It’s an issue. But what worries me even more is the identity of the offense when the games matter the most. Can the Bills control the line of scrimmage, run the football and not be so dependent on Allen? If they don’t get that figured out, this team could miss a very good window of opportunity. — Riddick
Stat to know: Allen has posted a 71.4 QBR over the past three seasons. That’s better than any quarterback not named Patrick Mahomes. Consistently great play at quarterback is the most important attribute for sustainable success, and it’s a big reason the Bills are ranked here. — Walder
6. Seattle Seahawks Overall score: 85.9
7. Pittsburgh Steelers Overall score: 84.1
T-8. Jacksonville Jaguars Overall score: 84.0
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 80.7 15 Quarterback 90.0 7 Coaching 88.7 10 Draft 80.3 11 Front office 80.0 15
Reason for hope: The pairing of uber-talented 2021 first-overall pick Trevor Lawrence and Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson showed promise in its first season, and that’s the major reason the arrow is pointing up for Jacksonville. Lawrence took a big step forward, throwing 25 touchdown passes to eight interceptions in 2022. It doesn’t hurt that the Jaguars play in the AFC South, a division they should be able to control for the near future. — Graziano
Reason for concern: My main concern for Jacksonville is the same thing that concerned me on draft night in 2022. Is Travon Walker a true disruptive game-changer who can close out football games with his ability to get sacks? After recording just 3.5 sacks and 26 pressures as a rookie, he must make the jump in Year 2 if Jacksonville is to become one of the AFC’s top contenders. — Riddick
Stat to know: The Jaguars’ offensive line is a problem. It ranked 31st in pass block win rate last year and then lost the better of its two tackles, Jawaan Taylor, in free agency. The issue isn’t glaring because Lawrence is excellent at avoiding sacks (just a 4.3% sack rate in 2022), but a bad offensive line hurts the team on far more plays than just those that result in sacks. It will limit Jacksonville’s ceiling unless the unit improves. — Walder
T-8. San Francisco 49ers Overall score: 84.0
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 90.7 4 Quarterback 76.0 17 Coaching 93.0 2 Draft 72.7 26 Front office 80.7 13
Reason for hope: Coach Kyle Shanahan’s ability to design winning game plans around basically any quarterback is the main reason to feel good about the 49ers’ short- and long-term prospects. The roster is as loaded as any in the league for the next couple of years. The depth chart and tremendous coaching staff are more than enough to make up for continued questions at the QB position. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Who is going to be the quarterback? Will Brock Purdy be healthy, and will he be able to continue to ascend in 2023 like he did at the end of 2022? Will Trey Lance stay healthy, and will the work he put in this offseason pay off (either in San Francisco or elsewhere)? Will Sam Darnold take advantage of what could be a perfect situation for him? With this much uncertainty at the most important position in all of sports, the 49ers’ future as a legitimate Super Bowl contender is a day-to-day proposition. — Riddick
Stat to know: Receiver Deebo Samuel’s after-the-catch ability is incredible, but the rest of his receiving profile left something to be desired in 2022. He recorded just a 20 catch score last season, worst among all qualifying wide receivers in our receiver tracking metrics. Samuel doesn’t have to be great in that area to be an exceptional receiver, but catching so few passes relative to expectation hurts his value. — Walder
10. Dallas Cowboys Overall score: 83.2
11. Detroit Lions Overall score: 82.6
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 83.3 14 Quarterback 82.0 10 Coaching 84.3 14 Draft 80.0 12 Front office 82.0 9 Reason for hope: The Lions finished last season by winning eight of their final 10 games, competing for a playoff spot until almost the very end and knocking division-rival Green Bay out of the postseason hunt in their season finale at Lambeau Field. The culture change that coach Dan Campbell has engineered in a short period of time offers reason to believe the Lions can build off last year’s success. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Does Detroit have the pass rush to take down the real heavyweights of the league on a consistent basis? Yes, Aidan Hutchinson had 9.5 sacks in his rookie season, and first-year linebacker James Houston was spectacular with eight sacks in seven games after being elevated from the practice squad. But the Lions also ranked 25th in pass rush win rate (36%), so it is clear that they need more help up front. — Riddick
Stat to know: That the Lions ranked fourth in offensive EPA per play is a testament to offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and the Lions’ coaching staff. Detroit was extremely efficient despite having Jared Goff (who ranked 24th in QBR the year prior) at quarterback, a mediocre pass-protecting line (18th in pass block win rate) and just one good receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown. — Walder
12. Miami Dolphins Overall score: 82.5
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 92.3 2 Quarterback 80.7 12 Coaching 84.3 14 Draft 63.7 32 Front office 81.7 10
Reason for hope: Miami received an excellent grade on the non-QB portion of its roster, and when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy and available last season, the Dolphins looked like a team that could beat anyone. New defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, for whom the Dolphins outbid several other teams to hire in January, should make a major difference on that side of the ball, too. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Tell me that Tagovailoa and offensive tackle Terron Armstead will play 15-plus games during the regular season, and I will tell you that this team will win the AFC East in 2023 and play in the AFC Championship Game. The issues that will cap Miami’s upside ultimately are not about ability; they are about availability. Tagovailoa dealt with multiple concussions in 2022, and Armstead has never played a full season in his 10-year career. — Riddick
Stat to know: When Tagovailoa was on the field last season, the Dolphins’ offense posted a wildly efficient 0.13 EPA per play, which would have ranked second in the league behind only the Chiefs’ offense. And it would be ahead of the Bills when Josh Allen was on the field. If we look only at plays with Tagovailoa and Armstead, that number jumps to 0.17 — on par with the Chiefs. In other words: If healthy, the Dolphins’ offense has the potential to be ferocious. — Walder
13. Los Angeles Chargers Overall score: 81.6
14. Green Bay Packers Overall score: 81.3
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 80.0 18 Quarterback 72.7 25 Coaching 88.0 13 Draft 86.3 4 Front office 81.7 10
Reason for hope: There are few, if any, teams more dedicated to their way of doing business than the Packers are, and it tends to pay off. Only the Patriots and Steelers have won more games this century than the Packers. They prize stability in the front office and coaching staff, and in a time of significant transition at quarterback, they will lean on coach Matt LaFleur and GM Brian Gutekunst to keep them competitive. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Green Bay has pushed the reset button offensively, which could be great or could cause a lot of pain in the short term. The Packers’ top five wide receivers will be first- or second-year players, their top two tight ends are rookies and quarterback Jordan Love will be making just his second career start (83 career passes). I really like the talent that the front office has assembled, but there is no shortage of questions about how those players will execute when it counts. — Riddick
Stat to know: The Packers have ranked in the top six of pass block win rate every year since the metric was introduced in 2017. They’ve had some great offensive lines in that time, for sure. But I’ve always wondered if part of that was Aaron Rodgers, and perhaps his hard count, slowing down opponents. This season will help us find out. — Walder
15. New York Jets Overall score: 81.1
16. New England Patriots Overall score: 79.6
T-17. Cleveland Browns Overall score: 79.2
T-17. New York Giants Overall score: 79.2
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 77.0 21 Quarterback 77.0 15 Coaching 88.3 11 Draft 75.3 21 Front office 78.3 18
Reason for hope: Brian Daboll won Coach of the Year in his first season with the Giants, leading a team of whom little was expected to the divisional round of the playoffs. The performance (and health) of QB Daniel Jones last season offers hope that he can keep them competitive while Daboll keeps building the culture and GM Joe Schoen keeps building out the roster. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Did the Giants do enough on the perimeter to help Jones take the next step and justify management’s decision to sign him to a long-term contract extension? That’s the big question. I love the potential of Parris Campbell and the blazing speed of third-rounder Jalin Hyatt, but neither has No. 1 receiver upside for 2023. In fact, I don’t see a WR1 on the roster. That job could become the responsibility of tight end Darren Waller, but like Campbell, his durability has been an issue. — Riddick
Stat to know: Edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux managed just four sacks in his rookie season, but the underlying numbers suggest better play than that. Thibodeaux’s 18% pass rush win rate at edge was above average for the position (ranked 15th), and he had 9.5 sacks created, a stat where we credit the player with the first pass rush win on a sack play rather than the player who finished the sack. His continued development will raise the Giants’ defensive ceiling. — Walder
19. Denver Broncos Overall score: 77.9
20. Carolina Panthers Overall score: 77.3
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 75.0 25 Quarterback 76.7 16 Coaching 84.3 14 Draft 74.3 22 Front office 76.3 25
Reason for hope: Optimism tends to come with a quarterback picked first overall in the draft, of course, but don’t forget about Frank Reich and the all-star coaching staff he put together. The pre-draft concerns about QB Bryce Young from scouts and teams weren’t about whether he would play well, just about how long he might be able to last at his size. In the short term (and this is an exercise about the next three years), there’s every reason to be excited about Young turning this team into a contender. — Graziano
Reason for concern: How will Young adapt his style of play to the NFL? I have consistently said that I love his competitiveness and ability to make the dramatic off-schedule play, but the NFL is not the SEC, and Young will not be able to live outside of structure the way he did at Alabama and expect to last a full season. He will need to win at a high level with a more structured and measured style of play. — Riddick
Stat to know: The Panthers have a solid core of players on defense, including tackle Derrick Brown. He ranked second in run stop win rate (43%) as an interior defender last season, trailing only the Dolphins’ Christian Wilkins. — Walder
21. Chicago Bears Overall score: 76.9
22. Tennessee Titans Overall score: 75.9
23. Minnesota Vikings Overall score: 75.8
24. Atlanta Falcons Overall score: 74.0
25. New Orleans Saints Overall score: 72.8
26. Indianapolis Colts Overall score: 72.7
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 69.0 29 Quarterback 71.7 27 Coaching 72.7 26 Draft 77.0 16 Front office 77.3 20
Reason for hope: The front office has a good drafting track record, and it believes Anthony Richardson has the ability to be a star quarterback in the NFL. Richardson is the key reason for optimism here in the short term, and Colts fans will be eager to see him on the field as soon as possible. New coach Shane Steichen comes from Philadelphia, where they seem to know a thing or two about growing coaches. — Graziano
Reason for concern: I was wrong about this team in 2022, and my biggest worry for 2023 is whether this offensive line — which ranked last in pass block win rate and 23rd in run block win rate in 2022 — is the most overhyped, overpaid unit in the NFL. A turnaround from the OL is crucial to this organization winning games, especially with a rookie quarterback. — Riddick
Stat to know: Over the past five years, Shaquille Leonard has recorded 17 forced fumbles. That’s the most by an off-ball linebacker by a mile (Lavonte David is next with 10) and third-most by any player in that span — despite the fact he barely played last season (three games). Leonard will be just 28 years old this year, so if he can regain his form, he can help Indianapolis now and for years to come. — Walder
27. Washington Commanders Overall score: 72.6
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 80.3 16 Quarterback 61.7 30 Coaching 72.3 27 Draft 73.3 23 Front office 71.0 30
Reason for hope: New ownership, right? Whatever else happens with the Commanders this year, fans are breathing a huge sigh of relief over the impending departure of owner Dan Snyder. On the field, the hope is that second-year QB Sam Howell can thrive with his exciting group of young skill-position players on offense and that the stars in the defensive front can make enough plays to make Washington a surprise challenger in the NFC East. — Graziano
Reason for concern: The Commanders sure do seem to be high on Howell, including new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who told me at the combine that he is very much looking forward to working with him. If you look at the tape of his single 2022 start (vs. Dallas in Week 18), he was poised, played with good vision, showed solid movement traits inside and outside the pocket and spread the ball all over the field. But it was just one game. I want to see a lot more before I’d declare Washington has found its future at the position. — Riddick
Stat to know: It’s basically impossible to tell what the Commanders have in Howell statistically. But for whatever it’s worth, Howell recorded a QBR of 46 over his tiny sample of 29 action plays, which was better than the team’s average of 39. Whether it’s via Howell or Jacoby Brissett, Washington should get better play at quarterback. — Walder
28. Los Angeles Rams Overall score: 70.7
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 62.3 31 Quarterback 73.3 23 Coaching 80.3 19 Draft 65.0 30 Front office 77.0 21
Reason for hope: The Rams still have Sean McVay as their coach. They still have Aaron Donald in the middle of their defensive line. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp should be back from last year’s injuries, ready to make beautiful music together again. There are plenty of people here who helped win the Super Bowl just 17 months ago, so McVay could surprise you and return this team to contention quickly. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Donald is the only premium player the Rams have left from their Super Bowl defense, and Stafford’s health and durability going forward on a week-to-week basis is going to be something to watch. — Riddick
Stat to know: One lever the Rams pull more than anyone else under McVay is the designed rollout. Designed rollouts made up 12% of the Rams’ plays last season and 10% the year before, both league highs. And it really works for them. The Rams recorded 0.18 EPA per play (basically a Chiefs-level offense) on designed rollout dropbacks and minus-0.09 EPA per play on all other dropbacks. — Walder
T-29. Houston Texans Overall score: 70.3
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 65.3 30 Quarterback 73.3 23 Coaching 73.0 25 Draft 77.3 15 Front office 65.7 32
Reason for hope: With No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud at quarterback, there’s reason to believe an exciting era is on the horizon in Houston. New coach and franchise icon DeMeco Ryans also has brought excitement and optimism. Houston has a young team it hopes can grow up together around Stroud, who has the traits of a franchise quarterback. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Stability and continuity through the front office and coaching staff — that is what I care about with this organization going forward. The Texans haven’t been great in hiring, supporting and developing coaches since GM Nick Caserio took over in 2021. Ryans deserves much better, and the organization needs to establish some stability under him. — Riddick
Stat to know: The Texans’ trade from No. 12 up to No. 3 for edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. was the second-largest first-round overpay in the past 20 drafts, according to our approximate value-based draft pick valuations. It can work out — the top overpay was Julio Jones, after all — but expensive trade-ups for non-quarterbacks are exactly the sort of move that we have learned, on average, are bad bets. It was not a trade that instills confidence in the front office, which ranks 32nd in these rankings. — Walder
T-29. Las Vegas Raiders Overall score: 70.3
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 71.7 26 Quarterback 71.3 28 Coaching 66.3 30 Draft 71.7 27 Front office 70.0 31
Reason for hope: The defense underperformed last year, but Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby form one of the most exciting pass-rush tandems in the league when they’re both on their games. The Raiders also still have Davante Adams, who makes a case as the best wide receiver in the league. — Graziano
Reason for concern: When I asked Raiders coach Josh McDaniels what needed to improve in 2023 at the end of last season, one of the first things he mentioned was they needed more playmakers on defense. Last season, the Raiders produced the fewest turnovers (13) of any team in the NFL, were 30th in total sacks (27, of which Crosby had 12.5) and were 26th in scoring defense (24.6 points allowed per game). I like the additions of defensive end Tyree Wilson and cornerback Jakorian Bennett at the draft, but they have a lot of work to do to make this a top-15 defense. — Riddick
Stat to know: The Raiders made huge gains in their offensive line over 2021-2022. One player who took a big step up was Kolton Miller. The Raiders’ left tackle not only ranked seventh in pass block win rate among tackles (93%), but he jumped up to fourth in run block win rate (82%), a category that previously was a weakness for him. — Walder
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Overall score: 70.1
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 76.0 23 Quarterback 56.7 32 Coaching 65.7 32 Draft 73.3 23 Front office 78.7 16
Reason for hope: The overall roster around the quarterback still has stellar players in key places, especially at wide receiver and on defense. The front office has shown an ability to build a winner, and this is a team you can trust to keep drafting well and making the right moves. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Well, the Buccaneers don’t have a QB. At least not one who represents the long-term future. And until they have that guy, does anything else really matter? No. — Riddick
Stat to know: The Bucs used play-action on just 15% of their dropbacks last year, the lowest rate in the league. Any positive movement in that category under new offensive coordinator Dave Canales would almost certainly help Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask. Play-action is a quantifiably beneficial tool. — Walder
32. Arizona Cardinals Overall score: 68.5
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 56.7 32 Quarterback 72.7 25 Coaching 69.3 29 Draft 81.0 10 Front office 73.0 27
Reason for hope: A new coaching staff, with Jonathan Gannon coming over from Philadelphia, offers a glimmer of hope. The Cardinals also have two picks in the first round and six in the first three rounds of next year’s draft. And whenever he’s healthy again, Kyler Murray brings a lot of upside at quarterback. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Murray is coming off a torn ACL, and he is now dealing with a depleted roster. Furthermore, he is going to be working with a first-time offensive coordinator in Drew Petzing under a first-time head coach in Gannon. — Riddick
Stat to know: I’ll contend that the Cardinals are too low on this ranking for one simple reason — they currently own the two most likely picks to turn into the No. 1 overall selection next season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. There’s a combined 31% chance the Cardinals end up with the top pick right now and even a 5% chance that they earn both of the top-two selections. — Walder This exercise feels like more of a 2023 ranking, than a three-year projection. We wouldn’t think that only four teams will have fewer wins over the next three years, much less in 2025 than the Rams if the front office and Coach Sean McVay stay in place. They are proven winners who are in a re-boot at the moment, and we would think they would figure out how to get to .500 at least pretty quickly. We also think that if QB BRYCE YOUNG is anything like a number one overall should be that Frank Reich and the holdover roster should be a plus .500 team sooner than later. On the other side, a tie for 4th seems to be a pretty optimistic outlook for the Ravens. And with QB AARON RODGERS gone, should the Packers be as high as #14? |