| NFC SOUTH |
| ATLANTAIn his preseason countdown, Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com brings the Falcons in at #21. The Atlanta Falcons made the most polarizing NFL Draft pick in several years when they took Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall last year. Given how interest in the draft has skyrocketed, it might be the most debated pick ever. Except, there wasn’t much debate. Practically everyone hated it. Here were some of the reviews of the Penix pick from major media outlets on draft night: “This is a failure on every single level.” “I just wonder why the Falcons would pick a QB at 8 knowing that Kirk Cousins is their guy for the next two to three years.” “Like the player, but don’t like the pick.” “An older quarterback with medical issues as a developmental pick is a bit of a head-scratcher.” “This feels [like] a reach.” “What is going on in Atlanta? This pick makes absolutely no sense.” On The Falcoholic, more than 1,500 fans voted on the Penix pick and 47% gave it an F. To say the pick was panned is an understatement; it was hard to find anyone who gave it a benefit of the doubt. Well, about that. A year later, the so-called madness looks prescient. Penix took over for the ineffective Cousins late in the season, had some promising moments and the Falcons declared he would be their starter in 2025. Cousins is still on the roster, and that seems odd until you recognize that the Falcons have gone about fixing their quarterback conundrum in an unconventional way. That unorthodox approach is why they were endlessly mocked for the Penix pick (spoiler alert: most NFL analysts mock anything that doesn’t entirely align with how all NFL teams have operated for decades). Look at it this way: The Falcons guaranteed $100 million and also used the eighth pick of the draft on quarterback, and ended up with a player who they truly believe can be a franchise quarterback for many years. Plenty of teams that have struggled forever to figure out quarterback would happily sign up for that scenario. NFL teams only have to get the right answer on the test when it comes to quarterback; they don’t need to show their work. Now comes the part of finding out if Penix can be a top-end starting quarterback. There are plenty of reasons to be excited, but that’s based off just 105 passes. Penix completed only 58.1% of his attempts, had three touchdowns and three interceptions with a 78.9 passer rating. Those numbers will have to improve significantly for Penix to pay off on his promise. But he had some exciting flashes over his three starts, and that was enough for the Falcons to turn the page to a new era. “Realistically, the light at the end of the tunnel for us, despite how bad and poor we played on defense or anywhere else, is the quarterback,” coach Raheem Morris said after a season-ending loss, via the team’s site. “The organization has a quarterback that is certainly bright, that is certainly our future, that certainly can go out and make any single play and play in any single game that you can play in. Those are the things we’ll talk about I’m sure … moving forward. We’ll figure out ways to fix what we need to fix. We’ll figure out ways to fix the things we got to get done. But Michael Penix is certainly outstanding. He’s certainly one of the guys that’s going to play in this league and absolutely dominate for as long as we allow him.” The Falcons are hopeful that Penix is fantastic right away and helps elevate the rest of the roster. Penix, Bijan Robinson and Drake London could form the foundation of an exciting offense. The defense is a work in progress, but doubling up on pass rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. in the first round of the NFL Draft might fix Atlanta’s massive and longstanding weakness on the edge. Hiring Jeff Ulbrich, formerly of the New York Jets, to be their new defensive coordinator could help too. The Falcons were 8-9 last season despite uneven quarterback play and a poor defense. Improvements in each area could put them in line to take the NFC South. We’ll need to figure out what Atlanta has in Penix first. At this moment the Falcons are pretty happy to have their second-year quarterback. Nobody saw that coming when he was drafted. Offseason gradeThe Falcons’ huge trade up to draft James Pearce Jr. in the first round was widely criticized (the front office must be used to that by now). The Falcons overpaid, giving up 2025 second- and seventh-round picks as well as next year’s first-round pick to the Rams for the 26th overall pick, but Atlanta has struggled to find a decent pass rusher for years. It felt the need to make a dramatic move to solve the problem. The other first-round pick of edge rusher Jalon Walker at 15th overall was fantastic value. Defense was the focus of the offseason. The key moves were re-signing cornerback Mike Hughes, then adding linebacker Divine Deablo, pass rusher Leonard Floyd and defensive end Morgan Fox. Atlanta got better on defense, though cutting defensive tackle Grady Jarrett in a salary cap related move did hurt. Grade: C Quarterback reportThe Falcons weren’t able to trade Kirk Cousins, but there are also reasons they didn’t cut him before a $10 million roster bonus was due in March or give him away in a deal. Michael Penix Jr. isn’t a sure thing, and he had a long injury history in college too. The Falcons are paying too much for a backup quarterback, but how many teams see their seasons fall apart when the starter misses time and they have no decent backup option? Cousins looked bad last season, which is why he was benched, but he also was coming off an Achilles injury and has a pretty good 13-year NFL track record. If Penix gets injured or is ineffective, the Falcons still have a decent option. If Cousins ends up having to play and helps the Falcons win games, the cost won’t matter that much. BetMGM odds breakdownFrom Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “It’s Michael Penix Jr.’s team this season, and the Falcons will only go as far as he takes them. With a win total of 7.5 at BetMGM and favored to miss the postseason (-185), oddsmakers don’t have particularly high hopes for a Falcons team that spent two first-round picks on pass-rushers to fortify one of the league’s least-feared D-lines. Atlanta has gone under its win total in six of the past seven seasons. Is this the year that RB Bijan Robinson truly breaks out? He has the fourth-best odds (12-to-1) to win the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award.” Yahoo’s fantasy takeFrom Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “The longer I play fantasy football the more I want my rosters to skew younger, so I get the best part of a player’s career. Bijan Robinson is an appealing pick in his age-23 season, after outscoring all the backs over the final 12 weeks last year. It took new OC Zac Robinson some time to figure out Robinson’s best usage last year; he’s there now. I realize Robinson is high on everyone’s board, but he enters the summer as my RB1, the best of the backfield targets. I’m happy to pass on Saquon Barkley’s mileage (the workload last year is especially worrisome) and take a back who’s five years younger.” Stat to rememberOnly four teams had a pair of teammates in the top 25 of yards from scrimmage last season: Bengals (Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Brown), Vikings (Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones), Lions (Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown) and Falcons (Bijan Robinson, Drake London). Robinson had 1,887 yards, fourth in the NFL, and London ranked 25th with 1,268. The duo combined for 161 catches; 100 from London and Robinson had 61. Even better for Atlanta: London will be just 24 years old this season and Robinson will be 23. Atlanta rode one of the best running back/receiver duos in the NFL hard last season and that’s unlikely to change. Darnell Mooney is a good complementary receiver. Tight end Kyle Pitts probably is never going to recapture his rookie season form. The Falcons didn’t add anyone of note at the skill positions. The whole offense will rotate around Robinson and London again. Michael Penix Jr. peppered London with targets in his three starts, throwing to him 39 times. Robinson was a workhorse all season. We go into the season knowing exactly who will be getting a majority of the work in Atlanta’s offense. Burning question Can 2 rookie pass rushers fix the defense?The Falcons haven’t had a good defense in many years, and that’s a trend through their franchise history. Atlanta has finished in the NFL’s top 10 of points allowed and yards allowed just once since 1998 and only three times since 1977. The Falcons have finished 18th or worse in points allowed seven straight seasons (and 23rd or worse five of the past seven seasons). Part of the recent problem is pass rush. The Falcons haven’t had a player get more than eight sacks in a season since Adrian Clayborn in 2017. That better change soon after the Falcons used first-round picks on pass rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. If both of them pay off right away, maybe the Falcons field a defense that finishes in the top half of the league. It has been a while. Best-case scenarioMichael Penix Jr. was a fantastic college quarterback and the Falcons saw enough late last season to turn over the offense to him going forward. We saw the 2024 rookie quarterback class shine last season, and maybe Penix fits right in with that group. The Falcons have a good offensive line and stars at running back and receiver. If Penix hits, the offense could be really good. If the defensive additions drag that unit to an average level, the Falcons could win the NFC South and be in line to control the division for a while. Nightmare scenarioIf we see the Falcons voluntarily start Kirk Cousins this season, we’ll know things have gone awry for Atlanta. Michael Penix Jr.’s emergence last season has been overstated a bit. He had some good plays but also was far from a finished product. What if he gets exposed over a full season? He has a long injury history too. Cousins is theoretically a reliable veteran — he still needs to show last season’s dip wasn’t his new level going forward — but turning to him because Penix struggles would undo a lot of the excitement the Falcons have going into the season. If the Falcons don’t have a winning season because of bad luck, injuries or the defense being poor again, that’s not the worst outcome. Penix taking a big step backward would be. The crystal ball saysMichael Penix Jr. should be just fine. He has elite talent. However, it’s asking a lot for him to be an instant superstar. Last season was a solid debut but it’s not like he was Jayden Daniels right away. There’s work to do. Also, it’s hard to believe the Falcons defense can go from 29th in DVOA to the top half of the NFL just because they added two first-round pass rushers. It often takes rookie pass rushers at least a year to adjust to the NFL. It wouldn’t be fun for the Falcons to have a losing season and then watch the Rams select in their spot in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, but that seems like a reasonable prediction. Unless Penix does hit his ceiling right away, which isn’t an impossible dream. |
| AFC WEST |
| LAS VEGASMichael-Shawn Duggar and Tashan Reed of The Athletic look at the amazing 73-year-old Pete Carroll. Pete Carroll often pulls ideas from those around him. During the 2023 season, the veteran Seattle Seahawks head coach was in a brainstorming session with defensive backs coach Karl Scott. They began discussing a defensive coverage one night, and their conversation spilled over to the next day. The two met in Carroll’s office before an early morning staff meeting. It was an intense back-and-forth that might have looked confrontational from the outside, but they were really just talking ball. Then, suddenly, as Scott laid out his perspective, Carroll broke the tension with a seemingly unprompted smirk. Caught off guard, Scott pivoted from making his case to asking if he’d said something wrong to his boss. “Nah, man. You’re making that face, man,” Carroll said. “That face I’ve just seen you make is the same face Kina makes.” Kina is Scott’s daughter, who was 5 at the time. To Scott, her mannerisms coming up during a game-planning debate symbolized Carroll’s ability to balance his relentless competitiveness with his similarly persistent humanity. “You’re so used to locking in in the world of football and the world of sports,” Scott said recently, “but in those two seconds, he was able to … be a regular person and have true emotion. That threw me off because it was so unique. … Even in the midst of all this (stress), he’s Pete Carroll. He’s himself.” That consistency was one of the driving factors behind the Las Vegas Raiders’ decision to hire Carroll this offseason and make him the oldest head coach in NFL history. His mind and body have undoubtedly changed as he approaches age 74, but his core approach remains the same. Carroll won a national championship at USC and a Super Bowl with the Seahawks on the back of his famed “always compete” mantra. That mentality comes with high standards for his assistants and players, but his style is far from militaristic. Sometimes, there are impromptu H-O-R-S-E competitions on mini hoops in meeting rooms. Other times, he’s showing defensive backs how to backpedal during individual drills. He might even randomly drop “The People’s Elbow” on an unsuspecting player during warmups. All of that is mixed into a singular focus on winning. “It’s truly a competition for everything we do, but we’re having fun with it,” Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby said this spring. “He just wants to see guys be the best versions of themselves. And he’s true to that. It’s not fake energy. It’s every day. He’s the same guy.” Carroll has mastered the ability to connect with people. Whether it’s a peer or someone decades his junior doesn’t matter. “Whether you’re 21 or 71, there is one language that real ones speak — and that’s competitiveness,” Washington Commanders coach and former Carroll assistant Dan Quinn said. “There’s the languages of love; there must be another one — and that one is competing.” Ben Malcolmson played for Carroll at USC and later served as his assistant for over a decade with the Seahawks. He’s seen Carroll build and reaffirm team culture repeatedly. Age hasn’t changed his approach. Early in his Seahawks tenure, Carroll buzzed around the building with the same energy level as a kid at recess. Malcolmson figured it was due to all the Mountain Dew he drank. Years later, Carroll switched his diet, cutting down on unhealthy foods, caffeine and sugar. “I think he had more energy after that,” Malcolmson said recently. It wasn’t the Mountain Dew. “He doesn’t believe he’s got to get old,” Malcolmson said. “He’s like Benjamin Button.”– – –Carroll’s relationship-based approach takes many forms. He’s demanding and sets a high standard, but his primary means of motivation is built around positive affirmations, not preying on fear of failure. He’s known for playing young players early — something many coaches are hesitant to do — empowering them to play fast and freely instead of coaching them to avoid mistakes. And it works: The 2013 Seahawks had the youngest 53-man roster ever to win a Super Bowl. The approach is a big reason so many played the best ball of their careers in Seattle, and several assistants found success elsewhere. “He makes people better,” Quinn said. “And I don’t care if that’s at (age) 32, 42, 52, 72. That’s a trait — and not everybody has it.” To do so, Carroll must know them as people, not just football commodities. Learning their stories, no matter how bumpy the road, is a key part of the process. In Seattle, he was drawn to players with chips on their shoulders. This partly explains Carroll’s success with late-round draft picks like Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman; undrafted players like Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse; others in search of a second act like Marshawn Lynch, Brandon Browner, Quandre Diggs and Geno Smith; and some with a history of off-field issues like Bruce Irvin. Carroll saw what they had been through, where they’d been and how it informed who they could become. “Coach Carroll is extremely relatable,” said Smith, one of Carroll’s all-time favorite players, who joined him with the Raiders this offseason. “He understands that guys have got to be themselves in order to be their best selves.” You can be a soft-spoken special-teamer, a loud-mouthed defensive back, a rah-rah speech giver or a lead-by-example type. Just be you, Carroll insists, and that’s more than enough. “It’s more than just doing work and getting practice done, getting games, getting wins,” Malcolmson said. “It’s like, ‘No, this is a relationship,’ and that is on display with how he can connect with people.” Carroll’s 50-plus years of coaching have shown him that, independent of age or background, players and coaches want the same thing: genuine, caring leadership. He has a reputation for delivering, through good times and bad. He has won and lost championships at the college and pro levels and navigated all that comes with those successes and failures. Carroll has learned to remain unwavering in his messaging and his commitment to the people following his lead. “The essence of it is figuring out who you are and what you want to stand for, and how you are going to deal with people,” Carroll said. “And it has to come from your heart. It has to be right, as authentic as it can possibly be.” Carroll was once a failure in this profession. After four years as the New York Jets’ defensive coordinator, he was hired as the team’s head coach in 1994. He was fired after just one season, a 6-10 campaign. He landed a second chance with the New England Patriots in 1997, and the team made the playoffs in his first two seasons. Following an 8-8 season with no playoff berth, though, Carroll was fired again. He spent the 2000 season out of coaching, but he wasn’t idle. “That was the year that, really, my life in football changed,” Carroll said. “I really didn’t know that I wanted to be a head coach — it just kind of happened, honestly. And I wasn’t prepared well enough. I didn’t have my philosophy together. … “It was pretty dang significant. And it was (about) figuring out who I am, figuring out what my uncompromising principles are all about, figuring out how I wanted to treat the people and how I envisioned the organization coming together in all aspects.” After a year getting his act together, Carroll landed the USC job. Although he’s hailed now as a program legend, his hire was initially met with apathy. “They were yelling at me for coming in there. They didn’t want me,” Carroll said. “I was getting a terrible response, but I took it on as, ‘I couldn’t care less,’ because I knew where we were going and what we wanted to do. And because I figured out how I wanted to do it.” Carroll’s historic nine-year run at USC never would have happened if he hadn’t realized he needed to adapt. His son, Brennan Carroll, who’s now the Raiders’ offensive line coach, was on staff at USC and saw his growth firsthand. “He’s very open-minded. He isn’t set in his ways in any aspect except with the fundamentals,” Brennan said recently. “As times have changed, he’s always tried to stay aware.” Pete aimed to stay on top of everything at USC, from offensive and defensive trends to popular music and the advent of social media. “He loves surrounding himself with people who are on the tip of the spear,” Malcolmson said. “That speaks to who he is. He’s always looking for that next little edge, and he’s willing to trust the people that he’s put around him to help get a little bit better each time.” Carroll has replicated that process with the Raiders this offseason. “Music or entertainment or sports or politics — he stays on top of everything,” quarterbacks coach Greg Olson said. “He’s a very well-read man. He can carry a conversation with a 10-year-old or a 95-year-old. He can relate to the rich, poor, White, Black, young or old; he does it all. “I think you have to be in tune with what’s going on in society, really, if you want to have that kind of impact on people. He’s incredible at it.” The Raiders have been the epitome of instability. Carroll is their 15th head coach since 2000 (including interim coaches; 16th if you count Jon Gruden’s separate stints). Crosby has played for the franchise since 2019 and is already on his fifth head coach. It’d be understandable if Crosby were hesitant to buy into another culture change, but that hasn’t been the case. “Pete creates that culture, that energy,” Crosby said. “Everyone knows it’s hard — you’re going to work your ass off, you’re going to put in all the work — but you’ve got a whole organization of people that’ve all got to be on the same wavelength and go in the same direction. … I think Pete does an incredible job with that.” As much work as Carroll does to remain young, Father Time is undefeated. To create a lasting legacy with the Raiders, he will have to work quickly. And if you ask him, there’s no doubt that’s going to happen. “We’re trying to take this as far as you can possibly take it,” Carroll said. “I can’t think any way else.” |
| AFC NORTH |
| CLEVELANDEven as there is now talk of Super Bowls (?!?!) in Cleveland in some quarters with the new domed stadium in suburban Brook Park, the Mayor of Cleveland is incensed. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: The Cleveland Browns got what they wanted from Ohio, in the form of $600 million in taxpayer money and a change to the law that would have otherwise kept them from leaving downtown Cleveland for suburban Brook Park. And while the Browns are very happy about the outcome, Cleveland is not. “We are deeply disappointed that the final state budget includes both a $600 million public subsidy for a domed stadium in Brook Park and changes to Ohio’s [Art] Modell Law — provisions we strongly opposed and requested be removed,” Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb said Tuesday, via WKYC.com. “Relocating the Browns will divert economic activity from downtown, create a competing entertainment district, and disrupt the momentum of our lakefront redevelopment.” The change to the Art Modell Law allows Ohio teams to move within Ohio. Given that the Ohio legislature created the initial law after the Browns moved to Baltimore in 1996, it seems that there’s little room for Cleveland to fight the legislature’s decision to change the law. The planned use of unclaimed funds to pay the $600 million to the Browns may become a bigger impediment to the plan. A 2009 decision of the Ohio Supreme Court could provide the basis of a challenge to the plan to tap into the money for the purposes of funding the new stadium. Put simply, “unclaimed funds” are not abandoned. They remain the property of those who have not claimed them. The argument would be that those funds cannot be redistributed by the state for the purposes of building a new football stadium. And so, even as the Browns declare victory and rush forward to make plans for selling season tickets to their new stadium, there’s a chance that Ohio will have to scrap the plan to pay the $600 million via unclaimed funds and come up with an alternative approach. The one approach that will never happen is to put the issue to the voters. When the voters have a chance to say whether their money will be used to subsidize the multibillionaire owners of sports teams, the response is usually, “Hell no.” As it arguably should be. With the values of NFL teams skyrocketing, why shouldn’t NFL teams pay for their own stadiums? The habit of using public funds for such projects feels less like good governance and more like the misadventures of Dennis Moore. |
| AFC EAST |
| BUFFALOThe Bills drafted CB MAXWELL HARRISON in the first round despite an allegation of sexual assault. The case has now moved to a new level. Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com: An allegation of sexual assault didn’t keep the Bills from selecting cornerback Maxwell Hairston in round one. That allegation has now taken on a new form. Via WKBW.com, Hairston has been sued for sexual assault. The incident allegedly happened in 2021, while Hairston attended the University of Kentucky. The civil complaint claims that Hairston engaged in non-consensual sexual contact with the plaintiff in her dorm room. She reported the incident to law enforcement at the time, and she later transferred to a different school. Hairston was not criminally charged. “Yeah, he’s an impeccable kid and we’ve done a lot of research,” Bills G.M. Brandon Beane said after selecting Hairston in April. “I think all teams were aware of the Title IX thing. That was fully investigated by the school. There’s everything out, he even volunteered to do a polygraph and had notes. It was one of those where there was zero — zero — information saying that this actually happened to what the accusation was. Just like anything in this world, you can’t just take someone’s account and think that’s the truth, but yes, we fully investigated that. If there was anything to that he wouldn’t have been invited to the Combine, to the draft — he was at the draft last night. Every person you talk to at Kentucky — teammates, staff there, plus what we’ve done — I would say this is a heck of a young man, every person you ask. That’s unfortunate when things like that are attached to someone’s name and in this case, it doesn’t seem to be anything there.” Whether there’s anything there will now become a matter of the civil justice system, where the ultimate outcome could be a full-blown trial in open court. And the evidence developed through the litigation could, in theory, attract the interest of 345 Park Avenue. |
| MIAMIAfter trading TE JONNU SMITH to Pittsburgh, the Dolphins proved to have an ace up their sleeve. Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com; Tight end Darren Waller will come out of retirement to join the Miami Dolphins, his agents told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Tuesday. The Dolphins will trade a 2026 sixth-round pick to the New York Giants, who held his rights, in exchange for Waller and a conditional 2027 seventh-round pick, sources told Schefter. Waller, 32, was one of the league’s best tight ends in 2019 and 2020, recording a combined 197 receptions for 2,341 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns for the Las Vegas Raiders, who rewarded him with a three-year, $51 million extension in 2022. However, they traded him to the Giants the following year, and Waller announced his retirement after just one season in New York. Waller told people close to him that he “missed football” and was returning for the love of the game, a source told ESPN’s Jordan Raanan. This marks the second major trade in as many days for Dolphins general manager Chris Grier, who sent three-time All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey and tight end Jonnu Smith to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Adding Waller fills a need vacated by Smith as the team’s primary pass-catching tight end — but there is risk involved with the move. Waller announced his retirement last June, saying that a health scare he experienced in November 2023 gave him clarity about his life. In a video posted to YouTube, Waller detailed a “very scary situation” during which he struggled to breathe and ultimately spent 3½ days in the hospital unable to stand up, use the bathroom or feed himself. Waller didn’t disclose the exact nature of the illness he battled. Waller has been open about his struggles with addiction, his sobriety and how rehab following a 2017 overdose helped turn around his life. He has vowed to use his story to help others. Waller recorded a combined 940 receiving yards in the two seasons after signing his extension and missed 21 games over his past three seasons. He is familiar with Dolphins offensive coordinator Frank Smith, who coached the Raiders’ tight ends from 2018 to 2020 — Waller’s best NFL seasons. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| BREAKOUT WIDE RECEIVERSJake Ciely of The Athletic has seven breakout receivers from a Fantasy Football perspective: 2025 Breakout Wide Receivers Jameson Williams, DETCase For: Honestly, Williams broke out last year with his WR19 finish, finally staying healthy and being involved enough to show all the upside we knew he had from watching him in college. Williams finished with a line of 58-1,001-7 in just 15 games and had the sixth-highest fantasy points per target (FPPT) at 2.01 — minimum 50 targets. John Morton was with the Lions in 2022, so his return and replacement of Ben Johnson as the offensive coordinator shouldn’t change much of the offense. Jared Goff averaged 4,547 passing yards and 32 TD passes over the past three seasons. Isaac TeSlaa is an intriguing rookie for 2026 if Williams doesn’t return, but he isn’t a threat to Williams’ No. 2 role this season, nor is any other wideout. Case Against: Last season, Sam LaPorta suffered a major drop-off from 2023, partly thanks to Williams’ breakout, but the tight end could bounce back. Williams was still great when LaPorta returned to form late in the season, but the tight end’s improved play and opportunities coincided with David Montgomery’s injury, and Goff subsequently threw at least 32 times a game each week of the season’s final month. Despite 87.9% of Goff’s passes to Williams being on target, Williams caught just 63.7% of his 91 targets. As much as we hope Morton replacing Johnson won’t change much, there is a risk that the offense regresses or other issues arise. As great as Williams is and can be, it’s tough to make a significant jump from WR19, especially as a team’s No. 2 receiving option. Breakout Likelihood: 3.5/10 to be a WR1 Marvin Harrison Jr., ARICase For: His pedigree — college performance and bloodline — is elite. Harrison is dangerous inside and out wide with elite hands and DJ Moore-like upside. There is no question about his role as his team’s No. 1 wideout, and he will once again combine with Trey McBride to see over 50% of Kyler Murray’s targets. This might surprise people, but Harrison saw the second-most end zone targets in the league with 18 (tied with Mike Evans, Justin Jefferson and Drake London), which is impressive for a rookie. Only Ja’Marr Chase, with 21, finished ahead of him. Case Against: The only, and slight, concerns with Harrison — separation and some route precision — manifested throughout his rookie season and caused some hiccups. We saw the need for improved chemistry with Murray, especially in this wide-open, arm-waving example against the Bills, as Murray never worked back to Harrison. Even as the clear No. 1 wideout, Harrison was still over eight percentage points behind McBride in team target rate. It’s unlikely that Murray ever throws for 4,000+ yards and 30+ touchdowns to maximize the ceiling of any of his receivers. Breakout Likelihood: 7.0/10 to be a WR2, 4.0/10 to be a WR1 Rome Odunze, CHICase For: Odunze was widely seen as a Top 3 receiving talent in last year’s draft thanks to his high-level skills in numerous areas: separation, hands, release, speed, etc. I compared him to a bigger Garrett Wilson. If new head coach Ben Johnson is igniting the Bears’ offense and turning Caleb Williams into the star we hoped to see last year, the entire receiving corps will benefit, especially a talent like Odunze. He led the Bears in air yards per game despite being third in routes and target share, plus he was behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen in passes from Williams that were on target (just 73.3%); Allen is now a free agent. Case Against: Some of the misconnections between Williams and Odunze were Odunze’s fault. Rookie Luther Burden is a great receiver with some terrific skills out of the slot. That said, Moore, Odunze and Burden can all work the slot and outside, which gives Johnson formation flexibility, but it could also lead to mixed usage where none of the three sees 90% of the snaps or 25.0 TmTGT%, and that’s before factoring in tight ends Cole Kmet and rookie Colston Loveland. Williams is also not guaranteed to improve in his first season with Johnson. Heck, there is no guarantee that Odunze doesn’t struggle again, remaining the third-best wideout for the Bears. Breakout Likelihood: 6.5/10 to be a WR2, 3.5/10 to be a WR1 Jauan Jennings, SFCase For: Did you pick him up on waivers last year? Did you enjoy having a plugged-in WR3 the rest of the way (not including Week 3, when almost nobody had Jennings in a lineup to benefit)? Jennings stepped up as the top 49ers wideout in 2024, pushing Brandon Aiyuk for the spot before Aiyuk’s season-ending injury. From Week 4 on, Jennings led the 49ers with a 21.8 TmTGT% and had a nice 1.97 YPRR (37th for WRs). Aiyuk is questionable to start the season, and it’s unclear when he’ll be back to 100%. Jennings fits Aiyuk’s role, while Ricky Pearsall is more of the Deebo Samuel replacement. If Jennings sees 125+ targets, 1,000+ receiving yards and a Top 20 finish are in play. Case Against: Pearsall and George Kittle will get targets. Pearsall will easily slide in as the No. 2 receiver and, honestly, he has enough ability and upside to push Jennings for the No. 1 role. Aiyuk could return to 100% a few weeks into the season, which means Jennings could fall to No. 3, or play alongside Aiyuk, thereby pushing Pearsall down. And again, Kittle will get his share, plus a healthy Christian McCaffrey will command at least 70 targets. That’s all without addressing the need for Brock Purdy to rebound and look more like his 2023 self, which would include much better touchdown efficiency. Breakout Likelihood: 5.5/10 to be a WR2, 1.5 to be a WR1 Josh Downs, INDCase For: His style fits Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones, so Downs’ potential isn’t highly dependent on who wins the quarterback battle. Downs had more FPPT than Michael Pittman (1.38 to 1.18) and a much higher EPA/TGT (0.24 compared to -0.02 for Pittman). And while both were quite good against zone coverage — 2.04 yards per route run (YPRR) for Downs and 2.00 for Pittman, Downs blew away Pittman against man (2.56 to 1.23), further showing his ability to work in all areas. Even more, FantasyPoints Separation Score has Downs 24th overall (0.104 — minimum 200 routes, which is still a low-ish bar), alongside Brian Thomas Jr. and Puka Nacua. Pittman’s at 0.063, alongside Darius Slayton and Darnell Mooney. Lastly, Downs’ 15.1% Win Rate (routes with a positive separation score) is sandwiched between Garrett Wilson and George Pickens and firmly ahead of Pittman’s 11.8% mark (alongside Mack Hollins and Gabe Davis). I don’t normally get this metric-y, but I wanted to show that the metrics see the same thing I do regarding Downs’ ability to get open. Case Against: While Downs can work with either Jones or Richardson, the quality of the Colts’ quarterbacks can still hold back every receiver in Indianapolis. Downs relies more on YAC than the much higher air yards that Pittman sees. If a third option gets consistently involved, Downs and Pittman could see their 21-23 TmTGT% drop, which again, would hurt doubly given the inferior quarterback play. Breakout Likelihood: 7.0/10 to be a WR3, 4.5/10 to be a WR2 Keon Coleman, BUFCase For: Coleman’s rookie season wasn’t expected to yield immediate production. There are Kenny Golladay (good and bad) comparisons, and we saw some of the bad, but the contested catch ability, hands, speed and smoothness for his size are all positives. Additionally, Coleman carries touchdown upside, tying for second on the team (4), despite only 29 receptions, and Mack Hollins (the leader with 5) is gone. If Josh Allen throws for 30+ touchdowns, Coleman could push double-digit scores. Case Against: One of my targets from last year, Khalil Shakir, certainly has a case as the No. 1 option in Buffalo. Shakir fits the Stefon Diggs style and role more than Coleman does. There is also a chance Coleman doesn’t overcome his rookie-season issues, which included some route-running issues and catching inconsistency. Signed in free agency, Joshua Palmer has flashed at times and could secure a top-two role if Coleman doesn’t improve. Lastly, several Bills’ receiving options have received 80 to 90 targets, even as the team’s clear No. 2. Breakout Likelihood: 6.5/10 to be a WR3, 4.0/10 to be a WR2 Roman Wilson, PITCase For: Wilson’s ability drew Mike Tomlin’s attention at Senior Bowl practices, where Tomlin told Wilson to line up against hyped corner Quinyon Mitchell to truly test him. Then Tomlin drafted Wilson in the third round. Wilson has some Emmanuel Sanders to his game, and with DK Metcalf the new No. 1, George Pickens off to Dallas and no elite options otherwise, Wilson is positioned well to seize the No. 2 role. As much hate as Aaron Rodgers gets, he did send 154 targets Garrett Wilson’s way, while still targeting Davante Adams 114 times in 11 games. Case Against: Wilson’s rookie season was a lost cause to injuries (ankle injury in training camp, then a hamstring injury five snaps into his debut, never to see the field again). There were a few reports that Wilson wasn’t overly impressive returning from injury before his Week 6 debut. Calvin Austin is a decent receiver, veteran Robert Woods signed with Pittsburgh, and the Steelers traded for Jonnu Smith (oh, Arthur Smith’s dreaded love of the two-tight end offense). Breakout Likelihood: 4.5/10 to be a WR3, 2.0/10 to be a WR2 |
| RANDY TO RETURNGood news on the health front for Randy Moss. Andrew Marchand of The Athletic: After being forced to miss the final two months of last year due to a cancer diagnosis, ESPN expects Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss to return to a full-time role on “Sunday NFL Countdown,” the network confirmed to The Athletic. Following his hiatus last season, Moss joined Rex Ryan, Tedy Bruschi, Alex Smith and host Mike Greenberg during the Super Bowl. “Randy’s return on Super Bowl Sunday was an emotional lift — not just for our team but for the entire football community — and knowing he will resume his full Sunday NFL Countdown schedule, beginning in Week 1, has been the highlight of the offseason,” ESPN said in a statement to The Athletic. In December, Moss, 48, revealed his cancer diagnosis on an Instagram Live video. He said then he had a six-day stint in a Charlotte, N.C., area hospital following surgery to treat cancer found in the bile duct between the pancreas and the liver. Moss also shared that a stent was inserted into his liver due to complications from his condition, and he would undergo radiation and chemotherapy treatment for the cancer. His recovery has progressed to the point where he is expected to join the “Sunday NFL Countdown” crew every Sunday. It will be his 10th year with ESPN. Ten years for Moss at ESPN. Time flies. |
| LONGSHOT BUT VIABLE AWARDS CANDIDATESBucky Brooks of NFL.com looks over the various awards and picks some candidates at higher odds who could steal major NFL awards in 2025: I thought this would be the perfect opportunity to pick out some overlooked candidates who could walk away with hardware at season’s end. Now, none of the selections below are likely to come to fruition (we are talking about long shots, after all). But in a league that produces surprises every season, they could. So, here are my long-shot picks for the seven major individual awards in the 2025 campaign. NOTE: Caesars Sportsbook & Casino’s award odds are current as of 5 p.m. ET on Friday, June 27. Most Valuable Player Baker MayfieldTampa Bay Buccaneers · QBCurrent odds to win MVP: +400If Mayfield matches his 2024 numbers (71.4% completion rate, 4,500 passing yards with 41 touchdowns) and the Buccaneers win the NFC South for the fifth year in a row, I won’t be surprised if the former No. 1 overall pick rises to the top of the MVP conversation. This offseason Tampa Bay added another talented pass catcher (first-round pick Emeka Egbuka) to a stellar supporting cast that features a pair of rugged Pro Bowlers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) with exceptional ball skills and playmaking ability. With Bucky Irving commanding attention as a big-play specialist in the backfield, Mayfield can rack up impressive production directing an explosive offense built on low-risk throws to a collection of dynamic weapons. With the Bucs climbing the ranks as a dark-horse contender, Mayfield could ride off with the league’s top honor at season’s end. Offensive Player of the Year Josh JacobsGreen Bay Packers · RBCurrent odds to win OPOY: +2200The former NFL rushing champ changed addresses in 2024, but his dominance continued with his new team. Jacobs finished sixth in rushing yards (1,329) and produced the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (15) in his debut season with the Packers. Although the seventh-year pro is more of a grinder than a big-play specialist at this stage of his career, he could put up ridiculous numbers in an offense that added Matthew Golden, a perimeter playmaker with home run potential, via the draft. If defenses are forced to focus on limiting the explosive plays from Jordan Love and Co. through the air, Jacobs could quietly pick up 2,000 scrimmage yards as a crafty runner/receiver in Matt LaFleur’s offense. Defensive Player of the Year Will Anderson Jr.Houston Texans · DECurrent odds to win DPOY: +1300The 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year could emerge as the league’s top defender in 2025. Last season, Anderson tallied 11 sacks (tied for 10th in the league) in 14 games playing opposite a disruptive force in Danielle Hunter. With the Texans adding more firepower to the front line in free agency, the 6-foot-4, 243-pounder should see those numbers spike thanks to more one-on-one pass-rushing opportunities in favorable, long-yardage situations. As head coach DeMeco Ryans unleashes the third-year pro in an ultra-aggressive scheme that prioritizes pressure at every turn, Anderson could top the 20-sack mark as the Texans’ designated defensive playmaker. Offensive Rookie of the Year RJ HarveyUCF · Denver Broncos · RBCurrent odds to win OROY: +2200When Sean Payton decided to draft Harvey in Round 2, he likely envisioned the former UCF standout thriving in an Alvin Kamara-like role with the Broncos. Measuring 5-foot-8, 205 pounds with outstanding balance, body control, hand-eye coordination and burst, Harvey can create mismatches in a variety of spots depending on his pre-snap alignment. He’s too quick and shifty for linebackers in space, but he also flashes enough power and pop to run through arm tackles in the hole. As a gritty runner with a little pizzazz, he is the do-it-all playmaker Payton covets as his feature back in his diverse offensive system. Given his potential workload and supporting cast, Harvey could put up eye-popping numbers for a team on the rise. Defensive Rookie of the Year James Pearce Jr..Tennessee · Atlanta Falcons · EdgeCurrent odds to win DROY: +1700The Dirty Birds might have finally solved their pass-rushing woes with the selections of Pearce and fellow first-round pick Jalon Walker in the 2025 NFL Draft. Pearce is an explosive speed rusher with exceptional instincts, awareness and first-step quickness. As a quarterback hunter for a team that desperately needs sack production and quarterback disruption, the No. 26 overall pick could make his mark immediately as a designated pass rusher in Jeff Ulbrich’s scheme. Whether winning with speed and athleticism off the edge or overwhelming blockers with a crafty bull rush or two-handed swipe maneuver, Pearce steps onto the field with a bag of tricks that will help him showcase his talents in Year 1. Comeback Player of the Year Jaire AlexanderBaltimore Ravens · CBCurrent odds to win CPOY: +80A two-time Pro Bowler in seven seasons with the Packers before being released this offseason, perhaps a change of scenery will help Alexander shake the injury bug and rediscover what once made him the highest-paid corner in the league. His talent meshes with a Ravens scheme that puts a lot of pressure on defensive backs to win their one-on-one matchups on the perimeter. As a versatile corner with lock-down skills utilizing bump-and-run or shadowboxing technique, the eighth-year pro could give Baltimore the CB1 needed to compete against the AFC’s high-powered offenses. Divisional battles against Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf and Jerry Jeudy are on the horizon, so Alexander will have a chance to show he’s still an elite corner with a bounce-back season. Coach of the YearSean McVayLos Angeles Rams · HCCurrent odds to win COY: +1800It’s time for the football world to once again acknowledge the offensive wizard as one of the best team-builders in the game. After the Rams overcame slow starts in each of the past two seasons to earn playoff berths, perhaps McVay will walk away with honors for his work with a team that could steamroll through the division from the jump this time around. As free-agent signee Davante Adams and Puka Nacua team with Matthew Stafford to spark a high-flying offense, the coach’s superb management skills should shine as he chalks up wins utilizing a complementary approach that binds the spectacular offense with a gritty defense and special-teams unit to outduel opponents. |
