GREEN BAY

Watching film of the Packers in Vegas last year, RB JOSH JACOBS saw something that put the seed of signing with Green Bay in his head.  Jori Epstein of YahooSports.com:

Josh Jacobs was sitting in his Las Vegas Raiders meeting when the Jordan Love film came on.

A running back … watching opposing quarterback film?

This clip was so spectacular that then-head coach Josh McDaniels queued it for the entire team to watch as the Raiders prepared for the Green Bay Packers last October.

With 12:21 to play in the third quarter against the Chicago Bears, Love faked a handoff to running back Aaron Jones and rolled to his left.

Then, with Bears defensive tackle Justin Jones closing in, Love heaved a back-shoulder fade of a pass to Jones in the right side of the backfield. Fueled by downfield blockers, Jones closed the 5 yards to the line of scrimmage, then the next 3 to the line to gain. Soon, he had exploded 51 yards up the right sideline.

The play was impressive. But in the months to come, Jacobs’ mind lingered also on how the snap started.

“I remember the play like it was yesterday,” Jacobs told Yahoo Sports on Tuesday from his new locker room in Green Bay. “He threw it on the numbers fading away on one leg. It was on the money, like a dart. [I thought,] ‘Yeah, bro. He got it.’

“You only really see [Patrick] Mahomes do that so I’m like, ‘Man, he has the potential to be special.’”

When the Packers hit up Josh Jacobs in free agency, he thought back to this clip—and what it’d mean to play with Jordan Love.

“You only really see Mahomes do that,” Josh told me. “So I’m like, ‘Man, he has the potential to be special.’

Coming from a team with a bottom-10 passing offense, Jacobs considered surrounding talent as well as opportunity when he reached free agency. He says “10 to 12” teams reached out to hire the services of the 2022 NFL rushing champion.

After watching how quarterback instability challenged his own team in 2023, he was eager to join a competitive team with an answer at quarterback. (Love hasn’t practiced yet in training camp as he awaits a new contract. But Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said Monday that “we know he’s our franchise quarterback and we’re ready to move forward. It’s not like we’re trying to make that decision.”)

“After we played him, I kind of kept up with him,” said Jacobs, whose team connections included special teams coach and former Raiders interim head coach Rich Bisaccia. “They started to progress and started to get better and better. I was like, ‘Yeah — this dude is going to be good.’”

In his Packers uniform, Jacobs has the opportunity to be, also.

The Raiders’ 2019 first-round draft pick posted three 1,000-yard seasons in his first four years, peaking at 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns rushing in 2022. He dipped to 805 yards (11th in the league) and six touchdowns last season amid a quad injury, a training camp holdout and instability at both quarterback and head coach.

What might his Packers role look like?

“Man, I love it because I feel like it’s limitless,” Jacobs said. “I feel like I can really take it almost as far as I want to go with it and they’re giving me the opportunity and that’s what I like the most: I’m being able to go out there to show I can catch the ball and run routes and [more].”

With Jones’ departure, expect Jacobs to become the top running back in an offense coming off two playoff games featuring 61 total rushes. The Packers also benefitted from 613 rushing yards and two touchdowns last season from 2020 second-round pick AJ Dillon, though his 3.4 yards per carry trailed Jones’ 4.6.

Jacobs averaged a career-low 3.5 yards per carry last year, though he’s hoping a healed quad and more receivers commanding defensive attention will change that trend this season.

Developing chemistry with the offensive line will be key, too, once padded practices begin.

“Learning when he’s going to cut back, when he’s going to press his aiming point and hit it outside, the nuances of his game, we’ll have to figure it out together,” center Josh Myers told Yahoo Sports. “I’m not going to sit here and say I know right now. But he’s a heck of a football player.”

And one acutely aware of the value he needs to provide amid a market tough on running-back value.

A year ago, Jacobs, Saquon Barkley and Tony Pollard each sought security beyond the franchise tags the Raiders, New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys had given them, respectively.

Now, each prepares for a season with a new team.

“Understand that it’s a business, don’t take it personally, just be smart and very calculated in your next moves,” Jacobs said of his advice to running backs. “On the field, the more you can do, the more you are — so try to develop your game.

“If you feel like you’re weak in this area, try to pick the area up and be at the best level that you can be.”

And be ready at all times, in case a cross-field fadeaway from Love comes his way.

MINNESOTA

The Vikings have extended T CHRISTIAN DARRISAW.  Ben Goessling of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune:

The four-year, $140 million deal the Vikings gave Justin Jefferson earlier this summer ensured J.J. McCarthy would develop in Minnesota with his top receiving option. On Tuesday, the Vikings made sure McCarthy would have his left tackle for the rest of the decade, too.

The team announced it agreed to a four-year contract extension with Christian Darrisaw, who now is signed through the 2029 season on a deal that a source said could be worth up to $113 million in new money. The Lions’ Penei Sewell is now the highest-paid left tackle in the NFL after having signed a four-year, $112 million deal in April; the maximum value of the new money in Darrisaw’s deal would help him eclipse that figure.

A contract extension for Darrisaw figured to be the next big item on the Vikings’ to-do list after they finished Jefferson’s deal before their mandatory minicamp last month. But since the left tackle still had two seasons left on his rookie contract (his fourth year and a fifth-year option were set to pay him more than $16 million), it seemed possible both sides would wait until after the 2024 season to negotiate an extension. Instead, the Vikings worked with Darrisaw’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, on a new deal that includes $77 million in guaranteed money, according to a source with knowledge of the contract.

Darrisaw, the 23rd pick in the 2021 NFL draft, has established himself as one of the league’s most promising young tackles, though he’s dealt with injuries that have kept him from playing all 17 games in a season and has yet to make a Pro Bowl team. He started a career-high 15 games last season, allowing six sacks and 31 pressures in 650 pass-blocking snaps. He’s earned comparisons to All-Pro Trent Williams because of his size and mobility on the left side, and the Vikings seemed interested in ensuring he’d play opposite right tackle Brian O’Neill for the start of McCarthy’s time in Minnesota.

The Vikings, who opened training camp with more than $20 million in salary cap space, could use some of the room to absorb the first installment of Darrisaw’s signing bonus this year.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

QB MATTHEW STAFFORD got something from the Rams to keep him happy.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Two years ago, the Rams replaced the three remaining years on defensive tackle Aaron Donald’s contract with a new deal. Today, the Rams did the same thing with quarterback Matthew Stafford, resolving a contract drama that had simmered for months and — but for the new deal — might have boiled over.

Although coach Sean McVay didn’t come out and say it, it’s clear there was concern about Stafford possibly not reporting for camp if they didn’t adjust his contract.

“Here’s the thing I’m excited about, he is here,” McVay told reporters. “We were able to solve that. I’m going to focus on the things that we can control and fortunately, we don’t have to really worry about those things.”

They don’t because they got it done. He could have held in. The fact that they worked to get the contract done before Stafford reported strongly suggests that, without a deal, he wasn’t showing up.

Now, he will. And in time we’ll find out what he got instead of what he was due to make.

Under the prior deal, Stafford had a $31 million salary this year, fully guaranteed. In 2025, he had a non-guaranteed $5 million roster bonus and a $27 million non-guaranteed salary. In 2026, he was due to earn a non-guaranteed $5 million roster bonus and a non-guaranteed $26 million salary.

That’s $31.33 million per year over the next three years, with only $31 million guaranteed.

The issue first surfaced after the Rams didn’t draft a quarterback in round one. Stafford wanted guarantees beyond this season. He presumably got them. Within the next day or two, we’ll know whether he did, and how much of a raise he received.

SAN FRANCISCO

Disgruntled WR BRANDON AIYUK may want a trade, but he is not holding out.  Matt Barrows of The Athletic:

One week after requesting a trade amid a contract dispute, San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is reporting to training camp, according to a source briefed on the matter.

Aiyuk, who is entering the final year of his five-year rookie contract, has sought a long-term extension this offseason. General manager John Lynch said Tuesday there were “no absolutes” regarding a potential Aiyuk trade, but emphasized the 49ers “fully intend on Brandon being a Niner.”

“Brandon is a big part of his team and we expect he will be this year,” Lynch said. Asked if he expected Aiyuk to practice, Lynch said, “we expect all our players to practice.”

Aiyuk, 26, is coming off a 2023 season in which he tallied 75 receptions for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns. In his four-year career, all with San Francisco, Aiyuk has tallied 269 receptions for 3,931 yards and 25 TDs.

– – –

Bill Belichick didn’t have a head coaching offer for 2024, but he did have one to be a defensive coordinator.  FOXSports.com:

Former New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick did receive an offer to join the staff of the defending NFC champion and Super Bowl runner-up San Francisco 49ers last spring, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan confirmed in a recent interview.

On the latest episode of “The TK Show” podcast, Shanahan shared the details of the proposal he threw out to Belichick earlier this year after the latter left New England. Shanahan explained to host Tim Kawakami that he did not really include any conditions to his offer because of how much the San Francisco coach admires the 72-year-old six-time Super Bowl champion.

“I did. I threw it out to him. He loves football so much that you never know. … I threw it all out to him, like whatever he’d want to do,” Shanahan said.

Belichick and the Patriots parted ways in January, ending his 24-year tenure there that included six titles, but only one playoff appearance and zero wins since Tom Brady’s departure in 2020.

Belichick still reportedly wants to coach, and interviewed for the Atlanta Falcons’ job before the team brought back former interim coach Raheem Morris instead. In early March, a report from the San Francisco Chronicle indicated Shanahan did in fact call Belichick when searching for a new defensive coordinator for the 49ers.

At the time of the rumor in early March, the 49ers had just former defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, who departed the team after their 25-22 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Shanahan told Kawakami that Belichick politely declined the opportunity to help one of the NFL’s most talented defenses.

“I was like, would you be interested? He was very nice and appreciative, but he politely turned me down,” Shanahan continued.

Instead, Shanahan wound up promoting defensive passing game specialist Nick Sorensen to defensive coordinator and brought in former Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley as assistant head coach for the defense.

But while Belichick will not be leading an NFL team in 2024 — something Shanahan told Kawakami he cannot believe — the 49ers coach is still holding out hope that Belichick will return to the sidelines in the near future.

“I’m sure he’s going to be back in the league next year. He’s the best, and I just like talking to him,” Shanahan said.

Belichick is instead pursuing media ventures, including with the CW’s “Inside the NFL,” for the 2024 NFL season.

– – –

TE GEORGE KITTLE has seen his weight go down and up this offseason.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

49ers tight end George Kittle had a rough offseason, thanks to a nagging core muscle injury he had surgically repaired as well as an injury to the AC joint in his shoulder during the Super Bowl. But after losing 30 pounds because he couldn’t lift weights, Kittle says he’s now all the way back.

Kittle said his weight got down to 214 pounds, about 30 below his playing weight, but that he is now right where he wants to be as camp opens.

“I got it back up,” Kittle said. “I usually play the whole season around 242 to 245 and I got it back up to 243 this past week so I was excited about that, weight’s all back. It was kind of an odd offseason because I couldn’t train the way I usually train, a lot of it was recovery. I was able to, through OTAs, June and July, kind of get back into the rhythm I want to get back into. I feel prepared to start training camp.”

Kittle said he couldn’t do his typical offseason workouts and lost a lot of muscle as a result, but he put it back on once he was fully cleared to train.

“If I’m not working out, I lose weight pretty fast,” Kittle said. “I had the AC thing with my shoulder from the Super Bowl. Then from the surgery I couldn’t really do any type of lifting. So, basically, I didn’t really do a lot for several weeks, so I lost a lot of weight. But after I got back in the gym, and I was able to start it back up, I got back to 230 decently, then I gained 10 pounds these last four to six weeks. So I feel good about it.”

The 49ers feel good about where Kittle is heading into his eighth NFL season.

DENVER

If Sean Payton knows who his starting QB is going to be, he’s not tipping his hand.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

When you have two quarterbacks, you have none. When you have three quarterbacks, you have the 2024 Broncos.

Veteran Jarrett Stidham. 2021 top-two pick Zach Wilson. Rookie first-rounder Bo Nix. Who will the starter be?

That’s to be determined. Coach Sean Payton was asked about the quarterback rotation during his first training camp press conference.

“We’ll mix it up again,” Payton said. “Obviously, it won’t stay that way for the long term. As we get started, we will keep you posted. Eventually, we will settle into the routine we want.”

So how will it go? Payton kept his cards close to the vest.

“We will keep you posted,” Payton said. “I’m not going to sit here and lay out, ‘Here’s how it goes.’ . . . Organically in my experience, we will see a rotation initially and then we will move on from there.”

Many are watching Nix, the twelfth pick in the draft.

“He is a quick study, so the progress in the playbook will be just like it will be for Zach [Wilson],” Payton said. “They both have been here for the same amount of time. All of these young players are studying pretty hard.”

Stidham has the advantage of being in the system last year, and of playing after Russell Wilson was benched. But the Broncos took Nix for a reason.

Time will tell. Whoever the quarterback is, the Broncos need to start winning some games. They haven’t been to the playoffs since winning Super Bowl 50.

MIAMI

S JORDAN POYER, new to Miami in 2024, doesn’t pull any punches on what he thinks the reputation of the Dolphins might be.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Safety Jordan Poyer is in his first season with the Dolphins, but he has seen a lot of them over the course of his career.

Poyer spent the last seven seasons with the Bills, so he saw Miami a lot before signing with them as a free agent this offseason. Poyer, who entered the NFL in 2013, was asked at a Tuesday press conference what lessons he has been able to impart to his new teammates.

The veteran’s answer had to do with the way the Dolphins are perceived by other teams around the league.

“I think just sharing the experience,” Poyer said, via a transcript from the team. “Like I said, playing against this team over the past few years, you kind of get a sense of, ‘OK, if you get on top of this team, they might fold,’ and there are some teams that are — this is just being honest, so what is that that happens in those moments where we get hit in the mouth?”

The Bills were 13-2 against the Dolphins while Poyer was in the organization, including a Wild Card win after the 2022 season. The Dolphins will be hoping that adding Poyer helps them beat his old team while stamping out a reputation that no team wants to have hanging around its neck.

NEW YORK JETS

Jets WR GARRETT WILSON knows he is only one season away from one of those big money contracts. Brian Costello of the New York Post:

This NFL offseason was filled with news of wide receivers across the league getting big paydays.

Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle and Nico Collins all received contracts that are among the top-10 richest for wide receivers in NFL history.

Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson has seen this.

The 2022 first-round pick is eligible for a contract extension after this season.

Has he dreamed about that big contract when he sees these other deals?

“I see all of it,” Wilson said Tuesday as the Jets reported for training camp. “I don’t look at it as far as that can be coming for me. I look at it as I’ve got to go make that happen.”

Wilson, who turned 24 Monday, knows he has a chance to join that group of top receivers, especially with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. Wilson caught 95 passes last year despite the team’s revolving door at quarterback.

“I’ve got the opportunity to join an elite group of guys,” Wilson said. “That’s who gets that type of money is an elite group of guys, guys that are part of teams that win games because of them and are difference-makers every single time they are on the field. I’ve got to go do it. I’m excited because if you do what you think you can do there’s a great conversation going on for it at this time. That’s not how I’m motivated, but I’m not going to sit here and act like I don’t see it.”

Wilson said he feels more comfortable in his second season with Rodgers at quarterback and Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator.

That has allowed him to start studying defenses more.

“There’s always an element of understanding, for me a cerebral guy that I like to think of myself as when it comes to football, there’s film study from years past and all the looks that Aaron has got previously with different coordinators because we’ll probably see them again,” Wilson said.

He said all the reps he had with Rodgers last offseason and again this year have him playing faster.

“Once you understand, you play at a different speed and stop thinking so much and just play,” Wilson said.

Wilson has focused on getting faster and stronger this offseason.

“When I first got here, I wasn’t strong enough,” Wilson said. “I could skate on some things because of what I do offer but that year took a toll on me physically. I had to find a way to get bigger, get stronger. It’s also just a mental toll that it takes on you. … You’ve got to find a way to attack it some way different every day and make sure you’re attacking, attacking, attacking because it can get repetitive.”

– – –

Three writers at CBSSports.com agree that the holdout of EDGE HASSAN REDDICK is a big deal:

Big deal or no big deal: Reddick holding out of Jets camp

Benjamin: Big deal. If nothing else, this confirms the current Jets regime, like many before it, remains prone to dysfunction. Aaron Rodgers and the offense are the real X-factor, but how could they have acquired Hasson Reddick from the Philadelphia Eagles without factoring in the top pass rusher’s contract desires?

Dajani: Big deal. Why did they not resolve this situation immediately?

Dubin: Big deal. The Jets gave up a conditional third-round draft pick for Reddick knowing that he wanted a new contract, and he hasn’t gotten one yet. This seems like the kind of thing that could linger.

Brian Costello of the New York Post has more on the matter:

The first day of Jets training camp was more about who was not there than who was there.

Haason Reddick, the Pro Bowl pass rusher the Jets acquired in April, is not reporting to training camp on Tuesday because he is unhappy with his contract, a source confirmed.

The Jets traded a conditional sixth-round pick to the Eagles on April 1 to land Reddick. Prior to making the trade, the Jets had a negotiating window with Reddick’s agent, according to a source.

The Jets made an extension offer that would have upped Reddick’s salary, but the edge rusher did not accept.

The understanding was that negotiations would continue but Reddick would participate in the spring workouts, OTAs and minicamp in the meantime.

Instead, Reddick did not show up at all in the spring.

Reddick is set to make $14.25 million this season. He was available in a trade because the Eagles did not give him a contract extension.

Instead, Reddick is set on getting a long-term deal.

The Jets have not ruled out a long-term extension, but they want him to be a participant in training camp before they reopen negotiations.

The Jets do not want to negotiate with a player who is not in camp or even if he showed up and pulled a “hold-in” in which he claimed an injury.

t

By not reporting, Reddick subjects himself to fines of $50,000 for every missed practice, and those fines cannot be rescinded.

The Jets’ first practice is Wednesday.

Jets general manager Joe Douglas has to be careful with these negotiations.

The Jets have a number of players who are in the final year of their contracts — including Michael Carter II, D.J. Reed and Morgan Moses.

They will be watching how Douglas handles this. If he caves to Reddick, Douglas may have a line outside his office looking for extensions.

Despite the strained relationship, there is still optimism that both sides can come together and find a solution.

The question is: How long will it take?

It won’t be a huge issue for an edge rusher to miss training camp practices, but it is a distraction the Jets don’t need as they enter training camp with high expectations.

Reddick, who turns 30 in September, made the Pro Bowl in each of the past two seasons with the Eagles.

He has four straight seasons of double-digit sacks. The Jets made the move to acquire him after losing Bryce Huff to the Eagles in free agency.

“He’s a phenomenal football player,” Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams said Tuesday. “When he steps on this field, he changes the whole aura, just because he’s a guy who can put up 15-plus sacks a year, 10-plus sacks a year and different things like that. I’m just blessed to have him on my side.”

Neither Douglas nor coach Robert Saleh spoke to the media Tuesday. Saleh is scheduled to talk to reporters after Wednesday’s practice. The players who did sessions with reporters seemed to understand that Reddick was handling business and understood why he was not there.

“When you’re dealing with contracts and things like that, it doesn’t really get to the locker room because we don’t control that,” linebacker C.J. Mosley said. “When he does get here, we’ll be able to have our two cents to say. We know he’s a pro. He’s been at the highest level of competition. I’m sure whenever that gets worked out, he’ll be here ready to roll. When he gets here, he’ll be another great player to add to our defensive line.”

Williams, who received a contract extension before training camp last year, called Reddick a “game changer” and said he believes Reddick will be able to pick up the defense quickly when he does report.

“I was in his position last year. I know how the organization works,” Williams said. “I know how Joe Douglas and coach Saleh and all those guys work. Knowing him as a great competitor and a great person who wants to be here, who wants to win championships, I know he’s going to get things ironed out.”

THIS AND THAT

QBs WHO WILL RISE OR FAIL

Five CBSSports.com writers opine on which QBs will exceed expectations or falter in 2024.

We see how well a poised quarterback can turn out when looking at the Kansas City Chiefs, who will be competitive for as long as Patrick Mahomes remains the starter. On the flip side, we see how a rotating door of quarterbacks, inconsistency and poor play from the offensive leader can plague a team. The New England Patriots went from an example of a quarterback defining their success, to quarterback(s) bringing down the franchise.

Of course, there are other factors that go into whether a team wins games or not, but the quarterback is the image of the team and is who usually gets much of the blame if things start spiraling.

As the season approaches, we are seeing more from each quarterback, including how some QB competitions will shape up. We asked a panel of five CBS Sports NFL writers — Shanna McCarriston, Jared Dubin, Cody Benjamin, Bryan DeArdo and Garrett Podell — to give their predictions for which quarterbacks will surprise people with how well they perform and which will surprise people with how they struggle.

Here is a look at who we think will exceed expectations and who will underperform, along with the quarterback’s record last year:

Quarterbacks who will exceed expectations

Anthony Richardson

IND • QB • #5

McCarriston: We only got to see a short preview of what Richarson has to offer, but I liked what he showed us in his rookie year, before the injuries hit. He has a lot to prove and I believe he will go out there with newfound motivation to get the job done. The Colts added veteran and Super Bowl winning quarterback Joe Flacco, who will be able to provide that wisdom a young QB needs. The offense lost wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie, but were able to re-sign pass catcher Michael Pittman Jr., who led the team in receiving yards last season. Indy added another option for Richardson in second-round pick Adonai Mitchell.

Dubin: I have an incredible amount of faith in head coach Shane Steichen to get the absolute best out of Richardson, who has otherworldly physical talent. Over the last four years, Steichen has been the offensive architect behind Justin Herbert’s rookie season, Jalen Hurts’ ascension to being an MVP candidate, and a functional NFL offense (13th in DVOA) with Gardner Minshew at the helm. Richardson could truly smash this year after he had to miss most of his rookie season with injuries.

Bryce Young

CAR • QB • #9

Dubin: For Young, expectations are so low that he almost has to exceed them. He also has Dave Canales coming in as his head coach, and Canales orchestrated the career resurgences for Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. He’ll put Young in position to succeed.

Aaron Rodgers

NYJ • QB • #8

Benjamin: OK, so this is a tricky one, because on one hand, there’s a ton of pressure on A-Rod to finally live up to his Jets hype. Is it possible we’re actually underrating him a bit, though, considering he vanished from the scene due to injury in 2023, and is now widely considered more of an aging, risky, if big-name gamble? With familiar stars like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson drawing easy praise in the AFC, Rodgers is poised to surge back into the conversation of top-shelf signal-callers with his offensive line at least better stocked this time around.

Russell Wilson

PIT • QB • #3

DeArdo: Throughout his career, Wilson has proven that he will thrive in a stable environment, which wasn’t the case during his time in Denver. In Pittsburgh, though, Wilson is back on a winning program that employs a run-first offense. The big question is whether or not the Steelers have given Wilson enough weapons at receiver.

Jordan Love

GB • QB • #10

Podell: Love exploded down the stretch of the regular season with an NFL-best 18-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio from Weeks 11 through 18, evoking both statistical and film comparisons to his predecessor, future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. He then set the Packers’ single-game playoff record for passer rating (157.2) and yards per pass attempt (13) in a nearly perfect road performance in a 48-32 upset of the NFC’s second-seeded Dallas Cowboys, a game Green Bay led 27-0. The next step for Love is looking like the second half of last season for an entire campaign. With a full season of experience for both him and his youthful group of pass-catchers, Love can make a leap to becoming a regular top-five NFL quarterback.

Quarterbacks who will underperform

Aaron Rodgers

NYJ • QB • #8

McCarriston: I grouped these two together because they are both coming off of injuries and getting up there in age. Rodgers is a popular pick for a quarterback who will underperform and there is reason for that. He moves in an odd way for a star quarterback who has something to prove this year, skipping team practices as one example. If I were a 40-year-old quarterback, coming off a season where I played just four snaps, with people wondering if I can be the same after an injury, I’d be doing everything to not give them extra material against me. Rodgers does not have me buying in at all and add the Jets’ history of struggles, I can’t see this going as well as New York fans are hoping. Call me a hater, but how can signing an aging quarterback who is coming off a major injury to a four-year, $180 million contract work out well?

Dubin: It’s fairly simple for Rodgers. I cannot get behind old dudes coming off Achilles tears suddenly snapping back and being their former selves. I’ll let others bet on that.

Kirk Cousins

ATL • QB • #18

McCarriston: Cousins has to end the year holding up the Lombardi Trophy for me to believe this contract was worth it’s weight. The nearly 36-year-old has a 1-4 playoff record, the furthest his team has advanced is the Divisional Round and I don’t see this as the year he makes a longer run.

Dubin: Same reasoning as Rodgers.

Baker Mayfield

TB • QB • #6

Benjamin: Baker is an easy guy to root for, and a perfect fit for the scrappy Buccaneers. He leaves it all on the line, and he fully earned his new deal to be Tampa Bay’s quarterback of the near future. Yet isn’t it possible we’re putting a little too much stock into a 9-8 season in which he almost didn’t escape the NFC South? We’ve had five years of Mayfield as a starter, and two of them have been playoff-caliber. He may well have the Bucs fighting at the top of the South again, but he still feels more like a spoiler than a contender.

Dubin: Similar to the way Geno Smith took a step backward last season after Canales left for Tampa, I think Mayfield could do the same now that the former Buccaneers OC is in Carolina.

Podell: Mayfield produced career numbers in completion percentage (64.3%), passing yards (4,044) and passing touchdowns (28), ranking as a top 10 quarterback in the entire league in yards (ninth) and passing touchdowns (seventh). Mayfield even threw one more regular season touchdown than Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes (27 regular season touchdowns in 2023). With offensive coordinator Dave Canales now in Carolina as the Panthers new head coach, Mayfield takes a slight step back under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen despite their brief established relationship from their time together with the 2022 Los Angeles Rams.

Justin Herbert

LAC • QB • #10

DeArdo: Herbert has the unenviable task of trying to produce this season without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, his top-two wideouts since entering the NFL in 2020. He’s starting over with a receiving corps that includes two rookies and a second-year player (Quentin Johnston) who underperformed during his rookie season. Oh, Herbert also lost running back Austin Ekeler, who averaged 70.5 catches per year during his time with Herbert.

For what it’s worth – the DB likes Arizona QB KYLER MURRAY as an over-perform.  Also, QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON of the Colts mentioned above.

And how about Buffalo QB JOSH ALLEN, now minus WR SHELTON DIGGS, as an under-perform.

BREAKOUT PROSPECTS

Aaron Schaatz, writing at ESPN.com, has a list of 25 breakout prospects (all drafted 3^rdround or later, plus other definitions).  We abridged his descriptions of some of them for space.  The whole thing is here:

Here’s our full criteria:

Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as an undrafted free agent.

Entered the NFL between 2021 and 2023.

Fewer than 500 career offensive or defensive snaps (except running backs, who are allowed only 300 offensive snaps).

Have not signed a contract extension (players who have bounced around the league looking for the right spot, however, still qualify for the list).

Age 26 or younger as of September 1, 2024.

Many of these stats, and further stats on these players, can be found in my new book, Aaron Schatz’s FTN Football Almanac 2024.

1. De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

Age: 22 | Drafted: 2023, Pick 84 | 300 offensive snaps

Achane exactly hits our maximum snap count, but we’re not going to miss the chance to put one of the NFL’s most exciting young players at the top of our list. Achane broke a 37-year-old record for rushing DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) by a back with at least 50 carries, finishing with 103 carries for 800 yards and eight touchdowns, The lightning-fast Achane ran a 4.32-second 40-yard dash at the combine a year ago and hit a top speed of 21.9 miles per hour — the fourth-highest speed in the league last season — on a 67-yard touchdown late in Miami’s Week 3 blowout of the Broncos.

However, Achane wasn’t quite as impressive as a receiver. He caught 27 passes for 197 yards and three touchdowns and finished 11th in receiving DVOA among qualifying running backs.

Achane lasted until the third round primarily because of durability concerns, which still exist. He’s just 5-foot-9 and 187 pounds, and missed part of his rookie year with a knee injury. His size also makes him a liability in pass protection despite showing plenty of effort. But when he’s on the field, there’s always a chance he’ll go the distance. He’s an important part of one of the best offenses in the NFL, and we’ll hopefully see what Achane can do with a full season of snaps in 2024.

2. Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans

Age: 24 | Drafted: 2023, Pick 69 | 494 offensive snaps

Does the quarterback make the receivers, or do the receivers make the quarterback? It’s probably more the former than the latter, but it certainly helped C.J. Stroud to have Dell entering the league alongside him. Dell entered the starting lineup in Week 2 and caught 47 passes for 709 yards and seven touchdowns before a broken leg suffered in a Week 13 win over the Broncos ended his season. Dell even added 11 carries for 51 yards.

He ranked 11th in receiving DVOA among qualifying wide receivers despite taking a hit in opponent adjustments because he faced an easy schedule of defenses. (By getting hurt in early December, Dell missed out on games against the great Browns and Jets secondaries.) ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics ranked him ninth overall among all wide receivers and first in his ability to get open.

Dell played for Alabama A&M and Independence Community College before transferring to the University of Houston in 2020. He was a third-team AP All-American in 2022 while catching 109 passes for 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns before being drafted by the Texans in the third round of last year’s draft.

Dell’s slender frame (165 pounds) was an issue coming out of college, but players such as Dell and DeVonta Smith are retiring that concern in NFL front offices. Dell is an effective, crisp route-runner who is strong at tracking the ball and dangerous after the catch. His biggest problem going into the 2024 season will be recovering from a gunshot wound in his leg suffered as innocent bystander during a crossfire shooting. A full recovery is expected, but Dell may not be ready for Week 1.

3. Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers

Age: 23 | Drafted: 2023, Pick 159 | 458 offensive snaps

Last season, the Packers had three rookie wide receivers and two rookie tight ends, but fifth-rounder Wicks was the best of the bunch. In conventional stats, Wicks put up 39 catches for 581 yards and four touchdowns. But he also led the Packers in receiving DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) as well as my new Route DVOA metric that accounts for how often receivers get open and draw targets. (Another Packers rookie, second-round pick Jayden Reed, was second in both metrics.)

Wicks came alive later in the season, following just 10 catches in his first seven games with 29 catches in his next eight. (He missed two games.) Wicks wasn’t quite as productive in the postseason, catching just two of four targets, although he did have a 20-yard touchdown against Dallas in Green Bay’s wild-card victory.

Wicks is fast with the ability to make sharp cuts in his routes to lose defenders. He was fantastic getting open against man coverage in 2023. He’s also strong at gaining yards after the catch. So, why did he drop to the fifth round? The Virginia product had a huge drop in production in his final college season, with just 430 yards in 2022 after he broke Herman Moore’s school record with 1,203 yards in 2021. There were questions about his focus and consistency, as well as a tendency to drop passes. Those questions have mostly gone away after his rookie season, as he only had two drops.

Right now, Wicks is fourth on the Packers receiver depth chart, but it’s going to be tough for Romeo Doubs to hold him off from a place in the Green Bay starting lineup.

We’ll add that several Packers receivers qualified for our top prospects list after showing their talents last season — we considered Bo Melton, Malik Heath and Samori Toure for this list. All this youth is part of why things look so good for the Packers over the next couple of seasons.

4. Bobby Brown III, DT, Los Angeles Rams

Age: 24 | Drafted: 2021, Pick 117 | 499 defensive snaps

It’s easy to predict Brown to have a significant role after what he did in 2023. He started all 13 games that he played for the Rams last season, and only technically qualifies for this list because he’s one snap short of the maximum. Even with all those starts, however, Brown played just 36% of snaps when he was active because he is a 324-pound space-eating nose tackle who doesn’t play on passing downs. But Brown had a team-best 77% stop rate on run tackles and an average run tackle distance of just 1.7 yards, which would rank in the top 20.

But here’s the thing: Brown showed in college that he could rush the passer, too. In his final year at Texas A&M, Brown was eighth among all defensive tackles in sacks. He ranked among the top 30 defensive tackles ever in Kent Lee Platte’s RAS (Relative Athletic Score) based on combine performance. Brown can do more to help the Rams if Los Angeles gives him more opportunities. Until then, he’ll keep swallowing opposing blockers and taking down opposing running backs on first-and-10.

5. Keaton Mitchell, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Age: 22 | 2023 UDFA | 135 offensive snaps

Mitchell exploded in Week 9 last season, when he took a late-game handoff and sped 40 yards past a group of Seahawks defenders for an easy touchdown, capping an incredible nine-carry, 138-yard performance. But we weren’t too surprised. Mitchell was one of the highest-rated running backs in the class of 2023 based on our BackCAST projection system. Perhaps NFL teams let him go undrafted because they were concerned about his size (5-foot-7, 179 pounds).

The Ravens are grateful they did. Mitchell had 59.5% DVOA on 47 carries, setting a new record for a running back with a minimum of 40 carries in a season. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in Week 15, prematurely ending his rookie season. Coach John Harbaugh said in a May press conference that Mitchell’s return was “not around the corner,” but the Ravens are optimistic that he will return at some point during the 2024 season to play lightning to Derrick Henry’s thunder.

6. Trenton Simpson, LB, Baltimore Ravens

Age: 23 | Drafted: 2023, Pick: 86 | 46 defensive snaps

This is entirely projection for a player who didn’t play much defense as a rookie. Simpson only played 20 snaps before Week 18, when Baltimore sat a number of starters in preparation for the playoffs. However, the Ravens front office has a good track record of proactively drafting players to eventually take over for departing free agents. They used a third-round pick on Simpson with the knowledge that Patrick Queen’s contract would be coming to an end after the 2023 season. Now Simpson will take over for Queen in the middle of the Baltimore defense next to Roquan Smith.

Simpson is fast and bends well. He showed explosiveness when used as a blitzer at Clemson and when he took down Mason Rudolph for his first NFL sack in Week 18. NFL Next Gen Stats gave him an athleticism score that ranked third among linebackers who attended the 2023 combine. Scouting reports dinged him for his inability to get off blocks, especially against offensive linemen, so he’ll need to improve that as he seeks to become an NFL star.

7. Jelani Woods, TE, Indianapolis Colts

Age: 25 | Drafted: 2022, Pick 73 | 334 offensive snaps

Woods lost his entire second season to nagging injuries to both hamstrings, but looks to be healthy for 2024. He is one of the tallest tight ends in the league at 6-foot-7 and told reporters before the draft that he patterned his game after Marcedes Lewis. He’s the kind of tight end who posts up defenders in the end zone.

Woods played a lot in the slot as a rookie but was in-line plenty in college. He’s also an above-average blocker. Woods also runs a lot of downfield routes, as evidenced by a high depth of target of 10 yards in 2022, helping him finish the season with 25 receptions for 312 yards and three touchdowns. Advanced stats gave him minus-7 DYAR, but it was still a promising rookie season.

The Colts have a crowded tight end room with Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, Drew Ogletree and Will Mallory on the roster. However, Woods played more at the end of his rookie year — three of the four games where he played over 50% of offensive snaps came in the final three weeks of the season — and looks like he will be the starter in 2024.

8. Marcus Jones, CB/WR, New England Patriots

Age: 25 | Drafted: 2022, Pick: 85 | 414 defensive snaps

Here’s another player who was on last year’s list and then lost most of 2023 to an injury — Jones suffered a torn labrum in Week 2. Jones is an interesting all-around threat who has also played 19 offensive snaps and 173 special teams snaps in his NFL career. Those are where Jones had the most exciting moments of his rookie year, including a late-game punt return touchdown to beat the Jets and a 50-yard slot screen where he outraced a series of Bills defenders for a touchdown.

Jones got most of his defensive playing time in the final weeks of 2023 and his stats were not very good: 8.8 yards per pass and a 41% success rate in coverage. However, cornerback coverage DVOA numbers give a different angle on his performance. Jones had a minus-24.5% coverage DVOA in 2022 because he did a great job of preventing targets in the first place, even after adjusting for the quality of the receivers he covered. He just wasn’t as good when opposing quarterbacks decided to throw his way.

His scouting reports out of the University of Houston were solid, praising Jones for his top speed and sudden skill. His 5-foot-8 height will likely limit him to the slot, and he’s supposed to be the top nickelback for the Patriots in 2024. Playing offense is not new to him, as Jones won the 2021 Paul Hornung Award as the nation’s most versatile college player. Will more playing time on defense limit the Patriots’ ability to use him on offense? That remains to be seen, but you can expect Jones to be returning punts and possibly kickoffs this season.

9. K.J. Britt, LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Age: 25 | Drafted: 2021, Pick: 176 | 233 defensive snaps

It took a while, but Britt finally got his chance when the Buccaneers benched Devin White near the end of last season. Britt barely played in his rookie year and missed half of his second season on injured reserve with an ankle injury. Then he started six of the final eight games in 2023, including both of Tampa Bay’s playoff games. Now he’s set to take over for White — who signed with Philadelphia in the offseason — as the starting inside linebacker next to veteran Lavonte David.

Britt is very aggressive with a downhill, attacking style. He’s very strong against the run, which was the clear difference between him and White last season. He needs to improve his pass coverage, which is what dropped him in the 2021 draft. He gave up five completions in coverage in the playoff game against Detroit. “In some coverages I need to slow down,” Britt told the press after last season. “I get myself in trouble trying to see too much.”

10. Clark Phillips III, CB, Atlanta Falcons

Age: 22 | Drafted: 2023, Pick: 113 | 414 defensive snaps

Phillips was the 2022 Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year at Utah but fell to the fourth round because of size concerns, as he’s 5-foot-9 with short arms. However, scouting reports lauded Phillips as a true playmaker with the ability to read the opposing quarterback and play strong in both man and zone coverages.

He plays “larger than his size” and is a film junkie. Phillips didn’t take a defensive snap in the first half of his rookie season but moved into the starting lineup in Week 14. He ended up with a good coverage DVOA of minus-6.6%, essentially the same mark as Falcons’ star cornerback A.J. Terrell (who was at minus-6.7%), and is in line to start opposite Terrell for the 2024 season.

11. Zach Harrison, DE, Atlanta Falcons

Age: 23 | Drafted: 2023, Pick: 75 | 324 defensive snaps

As a third-round rookie, Harrison saw roughly 30% to 40% of the Falcons’ defensive snaps. He lit up at the end of the season, with all three of his sacks coming in Weeks 15 and 16. Harrison is a bit of a tweener at 274 pounds, not a pure edge defender. He played inside some for Ohio State and will likely start at defensive end rather than outside linebacker for the Falcons this season.

12. Ji’Ayir Brown, S, San Francisco 49ers

Age: 24 | Drafted: 2023, Pick: 87 | 395 defensive snaps

Brown didn’t play much on defense in the first half of last season but entered the lineup to replace Talanoa Hufanga when Hufanga tore his ACL in Week 11. The 49ers’ defense didn’t miss a beat; in fact, the 49ers defensive DVOA improved from minus-7.2% before Brown entered the lineup to minus-17.1% in the six weeks he played before he sat out in Weeks 17 and 18 due to a knee issue.

Brown makes up for a lack of high-end speed and explosiveness with a high motor and good coverage instincts.

13. Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

Age: 25 | Drafted: 2022, Pick: 122 | 269 offensive snaps

We’re writing about White less because of past performance and more because of opportunity. With Josh Jacobs now in Green Bay,

So far, White’s NFL performance hasn’t matched what we saw in college, but the sample size is still small.

14. Wanya Morris, OT, Kansas City Chiefs

Age: 23 | Drafted: 2023, Pick: 92 | 339 offensive snaps

Morris was primarily a right tackle in college but took over as the Chiefs’ left tackle after Donovan Smith got injured in Week 13 and held onto the job through a Super Bowl title.

15. Nick Cross, S, Indianapolis Colts

Age: 23 | Drafted: 2022, Pick: 96 | 414 defensive snaps

Cross began his rookie season as a starter but was quickly benched for veteran Rodney McLeod Jr. At the time, he was the youngest player in the NFL. After spending most of two seasons as a core special teamer, he finally re-entered the starting lineup late in 2023 when Julian Blackmon went to injured reserve.

16. Brock Hoffman, C, Dallas Cowboys

Age: 25 | 2022 UDFA | 221 offensive snaps

Say hello to your new starting center, Cowboys fans! The good news is that Hoffman’s two starts in 2023 were two of the best games all year for the Dallas offense.

17. DeMario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots

Age: 23 | Drafted: 2023, Pick: 210 | 481 offensive snaps

The Patriots sure do love their diminutive slot receivers, so say hello to the modern successor to Wes Welker and Julian Edelman.

18. Garrett Williams, CB, Arizona Cardinals

Age: 23 | Drafted: 2023, Pick: 72 | 360 defensive snaps

The Cardinals had several rookie cornerbacks last season, but Williams is the one with the most future promise.

19. Hendon Hooker, QB, Detroit Lions

Age: 26 | Drafted: 2023, Pick: 68 | 0 offensive snaps

At one point during the 2022 season, there was discussion of Hooker as a possible first-round pick in 2023. Then he tore his ACL and tumbled down draft boards. The Lions took him with the No. 68 overall pick, stashing him on injured reserve for a year as he prepared to take over as Jared Goff’s backup.

Hooker had phenomenal numbers in 2022, winning SEC Offensive Player of the Year. That included an FBS-best 9.53 yards per pass attempt. He completed 70% of his passes with 27 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. Hooker is also a dual threat, with 430 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground that season.

The problem with Hooker is that nobody knows what we’re getting out of him without the Tennessee offensive scheme. The Vols didn’t use NFL-style progressions and checks. Hooker frequently only had to read half of the field and a lot of the offense was based on just chucking the ball deep to open speed receivers Jalin Hyatt and Ramel Keyton. Hooker is also old for a prospect; already 26, there’s not much room for development here, at least not physically.

The good news for Hooker is that he’s going to play for coordinator Ben Johnson, one of the NFL’s best playcallers and offensive designers. If Johnson can help Goff become a top five quarterback by DVOA, he can also probably tailor the offense to Hooker’s strengths should a Goff injury force Hooker into the lineup.

20. DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Dallas Cowboys

Age: 24 | Drafted: 2023, Pick: 90 | 0 defensive snaps

Overshown is 100% Texas. He was born in Tyler, went to high school in Arp and finished up five seasons with the Longhorns by getting voted All-Big 12. He was destined to play linebacker for the Cowboys. Well, that might be an exaggeration, given that Overshown was originally a safety at Texas. But Overshown was destined to play something for the Cowboys.

Unfortunately, he was not destined to do anything for the Cowboys in 2023 because he tore his ACL against Seattle in the second preseason game.

21. Henry To’oTo’o, LB, Houston Texans

Age: 23 | Drafted: 2023, Pick: 167 | 436 defensive snaps

The NFL has a long history of undersized instincts-and-intelligence linebackers who outperform their draft position. Instead, To’oTo’o is a regular-sized instincts-and-intelligence linebacker at 6-foot-1, 228 pounds. He’s a stronger run defender than a pass defender, with a poor coverage DVOA last season (76th among linebackers) but an average run tackle at just 3.4 yards. Before last year’s draft, the words that kept coming up in his scouting reports were “steady” and “hustle.” To’oTo’o should work on the strong side for the Texans when they need a third linebacker next to Azeez Al-Shaair and Christian Harris in base personnel.

22. Jarrett Patterson, C, Houston Texans

Age: 25 | Drafted: 2023, Pick: 201 | 463 offensive snaps

A year ago, the Texans used a second-round pick on center Juice Scruggs. But the plans to put Scruggs directly into the Week 1 starting lineup hit a speed bump when he went down with a hamstring injury during Houston’s preseason finale. The Texans’ starting center was still going to be another rookie, sixth-round selection Patterson.

Patterson was considered a real leader on the field as a Notre Dame team captain who worked well with other offensive linemen and played through injuries. He was panned in pre-draft scouting reports for short arms, below-average bend and mediocre lateral movement. Was Patterson going to be a problem for the Texans?

He turned out not to be a problem at all. Patterson started seven games and was charted with just three pressures allowed by FTN Data, ranking him third in pressure rate allowed among qualifying centers.

23. Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT, Indianapolis Colts

Age: 23 | Drafted: 2023, Pick: 110 | 132 defensive snaps

The Colts played Adebawore at defensive tackle in 2023. He played about 25% of snaps for about four weeks at midseason before playing fewer in the final few weeks of the season.

24. Chamarri Conner, S, Kansas City Chiefs

Age: 24 | Drafted: 2023, Pick: 119 | 304 defensive snaps

Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves players that can play multiple roles in the defense. Conner played a significantly larger role down the stretch due to an injury to Bryan Cook, and he lined up everywhere from deep safety to slot coverage to down in the box.

25. Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, Denver Broncos

Age: 24 | 2023 UDFA | 193 offensive snaps

Ranking McLaughlin on our list is a battle between opportunity on one hand and advanced metrics with a small sample size on the other. He is the NCAA’s all-time leading rusher across all levels, with 8,166 career yards (6.5 yards per carry) playing for Division II Notre Dame College (Ohio) and FCS Youngstown State.

His biggest issue will be competition on the Broncos roster, as he’s on the depth chart behind Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine and probably fifth-round rookie Audric Estime as well.

Honorable Mentions

Sydney Brown, SS, Philadelphia Eagles

Kei’Trel Clark, CB, Arizona Cardinals

DJ Johnson, OLB,Carolina Panthers

Marte Mapu, LB/S, New England Patriots

Bo Melton, WR, Green Bay Packers

Riley Moss, CB, Denver Broncos

Sean Rhyan, OL, Green Bay Packers

Terell Smith, CB, Chicago Bears

Deuce Vaughn, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Dorian Williams, OLB, Buffalo Bills