DETROIT

Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com sounds like a guy who is throwing a few buck on a bet for QB JARED GOFF for 2024 MVP:

Nobody would go into the season saying Jared Goff is the best quarterback in the NFL. That doesn’t really matter for the MVP discussion, however.

There is a formula for MVP. The days of Emmitt Smith or Lawrence Taylor winning the award are long, long gone. But it’s not just narrowing it down to quarterbacks or even quarterbacks from playoff teams. You need to figure out the quarterback whose team will have one of the top two records in their conference. If someone came from the future and told you which teams had the top four records in the regular season, you could narrow the MVP race down with remarkable accuracy.

Here is the breakdown of the last 15 NFL MVPs. It’s pretty basic:

• 12 quarterbacks from a No. 1 seed in their conference

• 2 quarterbacks from a No. 2 seed in their conference (Aaron Rodgers in 2015 and Matt Ryan in 2016)

• Adrian Peterson

This isn’t hard to figure out. Based on the last 15 years — Peterson winning MVP over Peyton Manning and his No. 1 seed Denver Broncos seems like it happened eight generations ago by now — 80 percent of the MVPs have been the QB on a top seed in their conference. And you have a slight chance as a No. 2 seed.

With that said, let’s get back to Goff.

The NFL MVP odds at BetMGM don’t like Goff all that much. He’s down at 35-to-1. That’s tied for the 15th best odds, along with Anthony Richardson and Kirk Cousins.

Some quarterbacks ahead of Goff on the list like Justin Herbert and Matthew Stafford are very good players but seem very unlikely to be leading a top-two seed in the AFC or NFC. Therefore, unless you think their teams have a huge season with a great record, recent history tells us that we can cross them off now. They don’t fit the formula.

Goff fits the formula very well. The Lions finished last season in the NFC championship game. They are tied for the second-best win total in the NFC and have the second-best Super Bowl odds in the NFC behind the San Francisco 49ers. Here are the top four teams, in terms of Super Bowl odds, and their quarterback’s odds to win MVP:

Kansas City Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes +500

San Francisco 49ers, Brock Purdy +1600

Baltimore Ravens, Lamar Jackson +1200

Detroit Lions, Goff +3500

One certainly stands out. You can add up the numbers of the first three quarterbacks’ odds and it’s still less than Goff’s number.

Goff would have to play well enough to get consideration even if the Lions are good, of course, but that might not be a problem either.

Goff coming off a strong season

Goff was pretty close to MVP numbers last season. He threw for 4,575 yards and 30 touchdowns for a 12-5 team, and as we know the latter number (even though it’s team-based) is more important than the rest when it comes to MVP consideration.

Goff could at least replicate his 2023 and perhaps surpass it. He is comfortable in the offense, especially with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson returning, and the coaches have confidence in him. The team showed what it thinks of Goff by signing him to a four-year, $212 million extension this offseason. The Lions believe Goff is one of the best QBs in football, based on that deal. Also, by now most NFL fans are aware that Goff is much better indoors. He had a 108.9 passer rating in dome games last season and a 82 passer rating in outdoor games. The Lions play 14 of 17 games indoors this season. That helps a lot.

The team aspect isn’t guaranteed to improve. The Lions play in a tough division and the NFL can be unpredictable. But Detroit has a decent shot to post the NFL’s best record this season. They’re in that exclusive tier. Their chances of posting the NFC’s best record are better than, say, 35-to-1.

MVP could go to someone like Mahomes if the Chiefs are great again, or even Purdy if the 49ers get the No. 1 seed again. But if the Lions grab a No. 1 seed, or maybe even a No. 2 seed, don’t sleep on Goff as a possible MVP. He’d fit what voters look for.

GREEN BAY

RB JOSH JACOBS likes what he sees from QB JORDAN LOVE.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

After completing the offseason program in Green Bay, Packers running back Josh Jacobs believes he’s playing in an offense that has unlimited potential.

“I honestly think the sky is the limit in this offense,” Jacobs said on NFL Network. “Obviously, with having a special guy in Jordan Love, you know, and having a good offensive line and some good receivers out there makes it a lot easier for me, but just to be able to see the game plan and things that they want me to do this year, the things that they’re allowing me to do, I just think it’s going to be a special year.”

Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yards in 2022, but he believes his talents as a wide receiver weren’t fully used during his five years with the Raiders, and now that he’s with the Packers he thinks he’s going to show everything he can do in the passing game.

“Just to be able to come out and actually show that I can catch the ball more,” Jacobs said. “Not just that but trusting me enough to be able to pick up protections. It’s just so special when you got a guy like Jordan Love back there, and you can’t really just load the box every play, and you make defenses decide what they want to stop. I think that’s going to be the biggest help for me this year.”

And the Packers hope Jacobs is a big help toward the offense taking a big step with Love.

NEW YORK GIANTS

Giants GM Joe Schoen throws his 2023 offensive line under the bus.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Giants stuck with Daniel Jones as their quarterback this offseason and General Manager Joe Schoen revealed one of the reasons why during the premiere episode of the latest Hard Knocks season.

Jones struggled on the field in the first five weeks before missing time with a neck injury and then returned to tear his ACL in Week Nine. While discussing Jones on Tuesday night’s episode, Schoen stressed the need to protect themselves against a possible injury while also noting that he’s not “giving up” on Jones with three years left on his contract.

One way Schoen wanted to show that commitment was by bolstering an offensive line that fell well below the standard the team would like to set.

“He didn’t have much of a chance this year,” Schoen said. “That’s legit. The core guys that were gonna play together played 60 snaps together. Miami, we got three fucking practice squad guys playing for us. You could have Pat Mahomes he can’t fucking win behind that.”

Jones won one of his six starts last season and the Giants went 5-6 in games started by Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito.

The Giants’ offensive line needs led some to predict they’d draft a blocker early in the first round, but they opted to take wide receiver Malik Nabers after signing guards Jermaine Eluemunor and Jon Runyan in free agency. Schoen’s hope is that all three players help make for a more effective Jones whenever the quarterback is fully cleared to return to action.

SAN FRANCISCO

RB CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY is a married man. J.J. Post of ESPN.com with the fashion report:

San Francisco 49ers star Christian McCaffrey got married over the weekend to former Miss Universe Olivia Culpo.

The couple met on a blind date in 2019 and had been engaged since last April. They were wed at a historic resort venue, Ocean House in Watch Hill, Rhode Island.

Attendance at the ceremony included a number of McCaffrey’s 49er teammates, including George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk.

Juszczyk’s wife, Kristin, who made headlines in the fall for her custom clothing design business, pulled through with some emergency tailoring, helping to stitch up an issue in Kittle’s wife Claire’s dress (last slide).

49ers coach Kyle Shanahan was also in attendance, sporting a distinctive new look — highlighted by slicked-back hair and a mustache.

He’s unrecognizable:

Culpo is a former Miss Rhode Island, so the wedding was on her home ground.

This from ‘People” after it details past relationships with swimmer Ryan Lochte, singer Nick Jonas, Tim Tebow, ex-WR Danny Amendola and DJ Zedd.

While she’s found happiness, Culpo hinted in her TLC reality show The Culpo Sisters that her love life hasn’t always been so rosy.

“I worry all the time about the future. I always thought by 30 I would be married [and] I’d have kids,” she said. “I was with somebody that did really horrible, horrible things. I was made to feel like a less-than-human in every sense of the word. I’ve never talked about it before.”

Christian McCaffrey

Culpo married San Francisco 49ers player Christian McCaffrey on June 29, 2024, after breaking one of her own cardinal dating rules for him: “No athletes ever again.”

“He’s just the best, I feel like he is really everything that I could ever ask for, so I never have to worry about anything,” she told Entertainment Tonight in November 2022. “I think that was the reason why I didn’t want to date an athlete, no offense, because there is a reputation there.”

Culpo was first linked to McCaffrey in 2019 after he liked one of her Instagram posts. The couple eventually made their red carpet debut at the NFL Honors in February 2020.

On April 2, 2023, McCaffrey proposed to Culpo after nearly four years of dating. The former Miss Universe posted about the milestone event on Instagram, including a photo of the 49ers running back down on one knee.

Culpo discussed her future with McCaffrey during an episode of The Culpo Sisters, explaining that she and the running back aren’t quite ready to have kids yet.

“I’ve talked to Christian and we’re on the same page about having kids, we both want to have kids, but the timeline of that is something that is not in the foreseeable future,” she said. “He is completely and totally focused on football and he should be. He’s not ready to have kids. It’s not really an option.”

Culpo also opened up about how she feels she has a “ticking time bomb” when it comes to her fertility, given her endometriosis diagnosis and the couple’s four-year age difference.

LAS VEGAS

Veteran QB Brian Hoyer offers praise for QB AIDEN O’CONNELL.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

Brian Hoyer had a front-row seat to fellow quarterback Aidan O’Connell’s rookie year with the Raiders in 2023, serving as a backup or third QB for most of the year.

The Raiders did not retain Hoyer for 2024, moving on to a QB room led by O’Connell and Gardner Minshew. But during a recent guest hosting sting on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Hoyer shared his impressions of the young quarterback as the Purdue product readies for a training camp battle to be Las Vegas’ QB1.

“Being there first-hand and watching Aidan grow, I remember him saying at the end of the year, ‘I never thought this is how this year would play out,’” Hoyer said. “At the beginning of the year, he was third on the depth chart and then he ended up finishing the entire year. And I thought to see his growth and what he was able to do as a fourth-round pick was tremendous.”

Hoyer added that he was “kind of shocked” that the Raiders didn’t consider keeping former interim offensive coordinator Bo Hardegree permanently based on the work he did with O’Connell.

“[W]hen Bo took over as offensive coordinator in the middle of the year, it took a while, but things really started to pick up,” Hoyer said. “Obviously, we had the big game against the Chargers and then finished the year on a strong note.”

It’s worth noting, however, that the Raiders also had a game they lost to the Vikings 3-0, during which the club managed just eight first downs. O’Connell also did not complete a pass after the first quarter of the team’s 20-14 victory over Kansas City on Christmas Day.

So, the Raiders turned to former Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to handle the same duties with Las Vegas in 2024. It remains to be seen how the Raiders’ competition will shake out. But Hoyer feels like O’Connell will have a shot to end up as QB1.

“[M]aybe I’m biased,” Hoyer said, “but I think what Aidan did last year — I know he hasn’t shown it as much as Gardner Minshew has throughout his career, but I know the guys really gravitated to the way Aidan took over and his leadership as a young player.”

NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots have extend LB JAHLANI TAVAI.  Mike Reiss of ESPN.com:

New England Patriots linebacker Jahlani Tavai, who tied for second on the team in tackles last year while emerging as a key cog for one of the NFL’s top-rated defenses, has agreed to a three-year contract extension, league sources told ESPN.

The extension has a base value of $15 million that can be worth up to $21 million, per sources.

The Patriots have agreed to a contract extension with Jahlani Tavai, who tied for second on the team in tackles last year. The linebacker gets a three-year deal with a base value of $15 million that can be worth up to $21 million. Billie Weiss/Getty Images

Tavai was entering the final season of the two-year extension he signed in November 2022 worth up to $4.4 million. He was scheduled to earn a base salary of $1.625 million in 2024.

The extension continues an offseason trend for the Patriots under first-year executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf and first-year head coach Jerod Mayo — first re-signing many of the team’s top unrestricted free agents in March, and now moving on to sign players who still had a year remaining on their deals — a group including running back Rhamondre Stevenson, center David Andrews, defensive tackle Christian Barmore and now Tavai.

The Patriots entered the offseason with about $85 million in salary cap space and still have approximately $40 million in space.

The 6-foot-2, 255-pound Tavai, who entered the NFL as a second-round draft choice with the Detroit Lions in 2019, has had a career breakthrough since joining the Patriots in 2021, initially coming aboard on the team’s practice squad.

Tavai has appeared in all 17 regular-season games each of the past two seasons, with 28 starts. His 107 tackles in 2023 tied with safety Kyle Dugger behind only linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley (114).

Tavai’s physicality and intelligence, along with his versatility to play inside and outside linebacker and on the punt protection unit, has contributed to him carving out an important niche.

Patriots rookies report for training camp July 19, while veterans report July 23. The team’s first practice is scheduled for July 24.

THIS AND THAT

BREAKOUT TIGHT ENDS

Some advice for your fantasy team from Jake Ciely of The Athletic:

Tight end breakouts might be the toughest to predict, but if you can find a gem, especially late, you can do away with the frustrations of playing the waiver wire game each week. So let’s find those breakouts!

ROOKIES AND BROKE OUT ALREADY

Brock Bowers, LV; Ben Sinnott, WSH; Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR; et al rookies — You know what’s coming if you’ve read the rest of this series. Rookies don’t “break out” for me, but these three in particular could have valuable fantasy seasons.

Kyle Pitts, ATL — He’s a bounce-back, not a breakout — lest we forget his 1,026 yards as a rookie. Okay, Pitts could easily break out into the Top 3 with and hit the 12+ FPPG mark with Kirk Cousins at quarterback. That would be a significant breakout, for sure, but I also wanted to go a bit further down the list, and Pitts plus Cousins feels like easy money.

David Njoku, CLE; Evan Engram, JAX — Njoku had his breakout (career-best 10.3 FPPG), and Engram posted the second double-digit FPPG season of his career.

THE OBVIOUS NAMES

Dalton Kincaid, BUF — Kincaid not only is the most popular breakout tight end pick, but he might be the No. 1 option for Josh Allen with Stefon Diggs gone. It’s Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel, and Kincaid is in line for a potential 120+ targets.

Trey McBride, ARI — McBride was TE4 overall, and TE6 in FPPG from Weeks 8-18. With 11.7 FPPG in that stretch, you could argue McBride can’t break out more, but he should be able to near that production over a full season with Marvin Harrison Jr. as Kyler Murray’s top target, but McBride still easily being the No. 2.

TOP 5 BREAKOUT TIGHT ENDS

Pat Freiermuth, PIT — Freiermuth has seen decent yardage and touchdowns, but not in the same season, and now is the time for both. I’m a supporter of rookie Roman Wilson, but more so because of Mike Tomlin’s fondness for him and the opportunity. Wilson has some limitations and is inexperienced, and with Diontae Johnson off to Carolina, Freiermuth is in line to be Russell Wilson’s No. 2 target. We know about Jimmy Graham with Wilson, but even Zach Miller had two seasons with 15.4 and 14.1 TmTGT% marks. Freiermuth has 12.1, 17.9 and 9.7 TmTGT% marks, respectively, in his three NFL seasons, playing just 12 games last year as part of the factor — so if you look at his TGT% (routes run targeted), you see a better picture of 22.5-20.0-17.2. Last year is still the down year, but Wilson is an upgrade over Kenny Pickett, and Freiermuth seeing 90+ targets with Wilson will have him able to put together the yards and touchdowns, finishing with a line in the 70-775-6 range, which would have been good for TE8 last year overall and in FPPG.

Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN — Here we go again. Okonkwo was here last year, but that was before the DeAndre Hopkins addition, which killed much of any chance for Okonkwo’s breakout. However, Brian Callahan takes over as the head coach and is a terrific offensive mind. Additionally, even as someone who isn’t the biggest Will Levis fan, Levis presents an upgrade at quarterback, particularly in downfield aggressiveness. Okonkwo averaged 14.1 YPR as a rookie, and while that’s a high bar, his getting back to 12+ YPR with Levis and Callahan is in play, and if he sees 90+ targets, a 60-for-750 season is doable. With a few touchdowns, that puts Okonkwo in the fringe-TE1 discussion. The downside is that Callahan has a wideout trio like he did in Cincinnati, which could make the tight end position irrelevant for fantasy.

Tyler Conklin, NYJ — Talent at the position matters, yet even with varying talent, Aaron Rodgers has targeted his tight ends 17.6% of the time. That’s slightly under middle-of-the-pack, but the point was more about Rodgers not being afraid to utilize his tight ends, despite middling options, for many years, and that’s with some top-end talents at WR1 and WR2. The Jets have Garrett Wilson as their clear No. 1, and Mike Williams is a terrific No. 2 — as long as he’s healthy. After that, rookie Malachi Corley, Xavier Gipson, and others will challenge for the No. 3 role, but that could — and should — be Conklin’s for 2024. Even before the talk of the offseason chemistry with Rodgers, Conklin was a smart gamble with a respectable 1.31 YPRR with last year’s trash QB play, and a nice 4.8 YAC/REC the past three years. With 90 targets, Conklin would be more than a breakout, potentially pushing fringe TE1 value.

Jonnu Smith, MIA — For all of the hate Smith received for “taking away” opportunities from Kyle Pitts, he is an athletic tight end and a matchup problem for linebackers. Smith could be the tight end the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa have been searching for, and the opportunity is here to be the No. 3 option. Yes, Odell Beckham comes into town as well, but this isn’t the OBJ you used to know, or the one who blocked me on Twitter. Additionally, the Dolphins have depth at wide receiver beyond Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but no true threats — as of today (potential for the future). Smith had 1.55 YPRR last year, and even though that was with the Falcons, that mark was 11th best (min 50 targets), just 0.1 behind Tanner Hudson and 0.2 behind Evan Engram (ninth). Pitts was 1.43 for comparison, and while I’ll take Pitts 10 times out of 10, Smith could be the sneaky tight end breakout of 2024.

Jelani Woods, IND — Woods is a nightmare matchup for defenses, but he missed all of 2023 with hamstring issues. The Colts have tight end options, but no one has the ceiling of Woods, who posted 44-598-8 in his final college year after transferring to UVA. Woods had a line of 50-25-312-3 as a rookie, and while Anthony Richardson’s offense won’t attempt 600+ passes, a tally in the low 500s is likely. The biggest issue is that even with 525 pass attempts, Richardson has Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and now rookie Adonai Mitchell, meaning Woods needs to be the No. 3 option to have a fantasy-relevant season. If he gets 80+ targets, Woods will be an enormous breakout and high-end TE2. Even so, he’s likely to be touchdown-reliant as well.