NEW YORK GIANTS

Jori Epstein of YahooSports.com breaks down the dispute between the Giants and RB SAQUON BARKLEY:

Everyone tried to say as little as possible.

Head coach Brian Daboll introduced his news conference saying “every conversation I have about Saquon will be private.” Six subsequent questions about star running back Saquon Barkley received variations of declined comment.

Quarterback Daniel Jones said he’s “going to let Saquon speak for himself” on whether the running back will play in 2023. At Tuesday’s minicamp practice, Jones expressed support but shed scant light on what’s holding up contract negotiations for his franchise-tagged teammate.

And assistant general manager Brandon Brown, despite acknowledging that the Giants’ collaborative approach gives him a front-row seat to each negotiation, said “that’s above my paygrade in terms of divulging some stuff we’re going to keep in house.”

“We’re going to keep the family business inside,” Brown said. “But I love Saquon.”

Barkley has reiterated he, too, loves the Giants. He wants to complete his career with the franchise that selected him second overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.

But the two-time Pro Bowl back disagrees that family business has remained inside.

Barkley spoke to reporters this weekend at his youth camp, expressing frustration with what he views as leaked reports misconstruing his negotiations.

“It’s all about respect,” Barkley said. “It’s misleading for sure. I think I’ve came out and said that I wanted to be a Giant for life. I’ve came out and said I’m not trying to reset the running back market. For those reports to come out and try to make me look like I’m greedy or whatever, that’s not even close to being the truth.

If the Giants were publicly tight-lipped about Barkley’s negotiations before he aired this grievance, they now have even more reason to keep things close to the chest. That leaves us wondering: what can we deduce about the Giants’ stance on Barkley’s next contract? And what’s holding up a negotiation that seems to have begun in earnest nine months ago?

4 criteria that will impact Barkley-Giants negotiations

Reports vary on the exact value of Barkley’s offers, some framing the average annual value between $12.5 million and close to $14 million. The Giants hold Barkley’s 2023 rights, designating him with a $10.1 million franchise tag that he has yet to sign.

Barkley has accounted for 6,069 yards from scrimmage and 37 touchdowns in five seasons, including a 1,650-yard, 10-touchdown 2022.

How can we determine what that’s worth?

Brown’s response to a question that wasn’t framed around Barkley offers the most clarity.

When asked what he learned this offseason from extending Jones and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, the Giants’ assistant general manager preached patience first.

“Being patient, being open to listen, not being stubborn and understanding what the market is,” Brown said.

Patience dictates remembering that, as of Tuesday’s minicamp practice, 34 days remain until the franchise tag negotiating window closes.

Listening may force difficult conversations about Barkley’s injury history that includes a 2019 sprained ankle, a 2020 ACL tear and a 2021 ankle injury. While Barkley’s 2022 clean bill of health is encouraging, he nonetheless has missed 21 games due to injury in the past four years.

Not being stubborn? Conventional wisdom urges the Giants to seek protection against future Barkley injuries, proposing reduced guarantees and heavier emphasis on performance-driven incentives. Conventional wisdom also urges Barkley to maximize his earnings in an industry with short-lived careers.

And the market? That’s where Barkley has lost the most ground since the Giants tendered their initial offer.

The most lucrative free-agent deal a running back was awarded this spring was the Carolina Panthers’ four-year, $25 million contract to Miles Sanders. In both average annual value ($6.35 million) and guarantees ($13 million) the deal substantially trailed previous markets. While league, team and player trends complicate apples-to-apples contract comparisons, the Dallas Cowboys awarded Ezekiel Elliott a six-year deal worth $15 million per year with $50 million guaranteed in 2019. As recently as 2021, the Cleveland Browns gave Nick Chubb $12.2 million per year including $20 million in guarantees, perOverTheCap.com.

Sanders’ deal nets less than half of Chubb’s contract on those metrics, despite Sanders coming off a rising salary cap and a 1,347-yard, 11-touchdown 2022 season.

Barkley believes this landscape is skewed because the franchise tag was placed not only on him but also on Cowboys Pro Bowl running back Tony Pollard and Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs, the league’s defending rushing champion.

“They tagged the top three guys,” Barkley said. “We didn’t get a chance to hit the open market. So when we don’t get a chance to hit the open market, it hurts a guy like Miles. It hurts all those other guys.”

It helps team cases for lower offers.

“Precedent sets the market,” Brown said. “And that’s something we don’t control. We don’t. What we do is we try to forecast and react. So that’s what we’ve done and the market is the market, but precedent dictates where it sits.”

This offseason’s precedent has trended more toward releasing high-priced running backs than rewarding them. The Cowboys cut Elliott in March after a 968-yard, 12-touchdown season in which he maintained productivity but declined in efficiency. The Minnesota Vikings cut Dalvin Cook on Friday after he amassed 10 touchdowns and 1,468 yards from scrimmage, his fourth straight year with over 1,300 yards and at least 4.8 yards per touch. Neither back has yet landed with another team.

“The market, surplus, scarcity dictates a lot of things on how you want to make decisions,” Brown said. “Also being able to agree to disagree at times and get back to the table. That’s really the biggest thing in learning is knowing things don’t just happen overnight.”

Barkley wants the Giants to take into account how heavily they lean on him as the face of the franchise, a core team leader whose minicamp absence teammates say feels weird, and an offensive weapon who attracts sufficient attention to create opportunities for fellow weapons.

Barkley will argue — and has demonstrated — that he is more than just another running back, and not only because he’s caught 247 career passes for 1,820 receiving yards. He will remind the Giants how much they need him and how much he plans to deliver on any investment they make.

“Every team is not the Eagles,” Barkley said Sunday. “Every team don’t have that much talent. And when you come to my situation, when you come to me personally, I feel like I help our team a lot. I feel like not only on the field but off the field. …

“I have a lot of respect in this league. And I think that’s how I should be viewed.”

TAMPA BAY

EDGE SHAQ BARRETT is working with the team after the recent death of his daughter.  Grant Gordon of NFL.com:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett, less than two months after the death of his 2-year-old daughter, was in attendance at his team’s mandatory minicamp on Tuesday.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles commended Barrett’s presence and the fortitude displayed by the two-time Pro Bowler.

“That’s a testament to him,” Bowles said Tuesday. “Shaq is one of the mentally toughest character guys I know. To have him out here still trying to get ready — I’m sure it’s not easy — but he’s handling it and we’re behind him.”

Barrett’s youngest child, Arrayah, drowned in a swimming pool at the family’s home on April 30 after falling in.

“Today’s tragic news is heartbreaking for all members of the Buccaneers family. Our thoughts and prayers are with Shaq, Jordanna and the entire Barrett family during this unimaginably difficult time,” the Buccaneers said a statement.

“While no words can provide true comfort at a time such as this,” the team added, “we offer our support and love as they begin to process this very profound loss of their beloved Arrayah.”

Barrett and wife Jordanna have three other children.

The 30-year-old Barrett is an eight-year NFL veteran who’s won two Super Bowls with the Buccaneers. He played in eight games last season as he suffered a torn Achilles that sidelined him for the second half the year.

– – –

The Buccaneers have solved all the issues, including a shortage of creamsicle cloth, and the team’s classic orange uniforms with the original pirate mascot will return.  Scott Smith of Buccaneers.com:

For the first time in over a decade, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be wearing orange and white this fall.

The Buccaneers announced on Monday that they will wear their “Creamsicle” uniforms against the Detroit Lions on Sunday, October 15, in Week Six of the 2023 NFL season. This marks the first time since the 2012 campaign that the team will don a version of the uniforms it wore for the first 21 seasons of its existence.

“The return of our beloved Creamsicle uniforms for this special game is something that our fans have been passionate about for many years, and we are excited to celebrate the history of our franchise with a unique, dedicated Creamsicle gameday experience,” said Buccaneers Chief Operating Officer Brian Ford. “This is more than a throwback game; it is a celebration of our legacy and some of the great moments and players that make our story so special to our fans.”

The Buccaneers will focus on a full Creamsicle experience on October 15, celebrating nearly 50 years of franchise history by transforming Raymond James Stadium to pay homage to the team’s original home, Tampa Stadium, also known as ‘The Big Sombrero.’ The transformation will include retro field stencils, stadium bunting and video board assets.

The Buccaneers played in predominantly white and “Florida Orange” uniforms from their inaugural season in 1976 through 1996. In 1997, the team adopted a new color scheme featuring pewter and red, kicking off one of the most successful stretches in franchise history. The Bucs broke a 14-year playoff drought that year, qualified for the postseason in five of the next six seasons and won Super Bowl XXXVII in 2002. Nevertheless, nostalgia for the team’s Creamsicle days persists among many Buccaneer fans.

Get your Creamsicle Game tickets today.

The Buccaneers first revived their Creamsicle look in 2009, in a Week Nine game against the visiting Green Bay Packers at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay had opened the season with an 0-8 record but were able to upend the playoff-bound Packers, 38-28, for their first win of the year.

Tampa Bay played additional Creamsicle games through the 2012 season but had to halt the practice after the NFL adopted a new rule that required teams to use only one helmet for each player for the entire season. That rule has since been revised.

The Buccaneers’ original uniforms featured a white helmet with a swashbuckling pirate clenching a dagger in his teeth, known as “Bucco Bruce.” The special games played from 2009 through 2012 featured white pants and Creamsicle orange jerseys.

The scheduling of the Creamsicle game against Detroit is fitting in that the Buccaneers spent most of their first two decades playing in an NFC Central division that featured the Lions along with the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. The Buccaneers were still part of the NFC Central when they switched to new colors in 1997. Their first playoff contest in 14 years, at the end of the 1997 season, was a 20-10 win over Detroit in the Wild Card round, which was the last game ever played at Tampa Stadium.

The DB isn’t sure when and how the team’s name for the color of the jerseys became Creamsicle with a capital “C.”  Are they in partnership with the frozen snack bar on a stick made by Good Humor?

There is a small bit of orange trim on the current Pewter-dominated uniforms.  The Buccaneers call it Bay Orange, but we don’t think it is the exact shade of the original jerseys.

The Buccaneers “Creamsicle” is said to be identical to what is also known as Tennessee Orange – Pantone 151.  As we recall, the Buccaneers called it Florida Orange back in the day (although it is certainly distinct from the University of Florida’s shade of orange).

Tennessee’s orange commemorates the daisy:

The distinct shade of orange beloved by Vol Nation is synonymous with the University of Tennessee, but how did the school come to select the color?

Tennessee Orange, Pantone 151 C, PMS 151. No matter how you refer to it, fans love Big Orange. Seemingly everything can be found in orange, from what would be considered more calm T-shirts and hats up to orange checkered overalls. Even a rare orange lobster found in Gatlinburg was named “The Big Orange Lobster” in honor of the upcoming 2022-23 football season. So where did the orange even start?

The first usage of orange for UT goes all the way back to 1889 when UT Athletic Association President Charles Moore chose the colors orange and white for UT’s first field day on August 12, 1889, according to UT history. The colors were worn by students to the Sewanee football game in 1891, which featured Moore as a right guard.

Students endorsed the colors at a special meeting in 1892, only for them to vote to drop the colors two years later. A one-day debate ensued, but as no one was able to provide any other satisfactory colors, so orange and white prevailed.

A Vol myth suggests that the color was chosen by Moore and that he was colorblind and had been told that the center of a daisy was orange. There is no definite proof to support that Moore was colorblind. According to UT Sports, the bright orange was chosen by Moore in connection with the common American daisy that grew prominently on the Hill, overlooking Neyland Stadium. A Volopedia entry written by Betsey Creekmore shares that the debates in the elections to select the colors where students voted for the colors prominently featured the Daisy argument.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

CB J.C. JACKSON expects to be back from knee surgery soon.  Lindsay Thiry of ESPN.com:

As the Los Angeles Chargers opened mandatory minicamp Tuesday, cornerback J.C. Jackson watched from the sideline as he continued to work through rehabilitation drills.

Nearly eight months removed from surgery to repair a ruptured patellar tendon in his right knee that sidelined him after Week 7 last season, Jackson expressed optimism that it won’t be long until he is cleared to return to football activities.

“I’m right on track,” Jackson said of the 7 to 8 month recovery timeline provided by doctors. “Almost there.”

“He’s progressing. He’s been working really hard,” coach Brandon Staley said of Jackson. “This summer will be important for him.”

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Jackson’s surgery was performed last October by Dr. Neal El Attrache, who he is scheduled to meet with again next week to gain clarity on a return date.

Jackson, 27, sounded hopeful that opening training camp with the team in late July remained a possibility.

“I’m expecting to come out here and practice every day,” Jackson said. “That’s how I’m taking it.”

BALTIMORE

According to Head Coach John Harbaugh, WR ODELL BECKHAM, Jr. is a full go, except he isn’t.  Erik Edholm of NFL.com:

It has been nearly 500 days since he last played in real football action, but Odell Beckham Jr. is making his return to the football field.

Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh told reporters on Tuesday that Beckham, who signed with the Ravens this spring, is fully cleared for action, but that the Ravens will onboard him with a ramp-up process as he continues to work his way back from the ACL injury Beckham suffered in the Rams’ Super Bowl LVI win over the Bengals in February 2022.

“He’s going to be full-go in terms of health and all that, but I also expect us to ramp up a lot of our guys,” Harbaugh said. “We’ve got to see where guys are at. We’re not going to be in a hurry to throw guys out there too much, (with) too many reps. We want to get a feel for everything.”

Beckham, 30, signed a one-year deal with the Ravens in early April that potentially could be worth up to $18 million. The free agent took some team visits last year with an eye on joining a contender toward the end of the season, but Beckham remained unsigned for the entire 2022 campaign.

“It feels good to get out of bed and not feel pain,” Beckham said. “It’s been a long journey.”

When Beckham takes the field, it will be the first time he will practice in a team setting since his knee injury. Harbaugh indicated that the Ravens are fine taking the slower approach to getting Beckham up to speed physically, as well as mentally.

“He’s learning the offense for the first time like a lot of guys have been,” Harbaugh said on Tuesday. “So, I think we’ll kind of be a see as we go. (He’ll) go through individual (work), take a few reps in group (work) and team and see how he and the other guys feel and go from there.”

Beckham said his goal is to be ready for Week 1. He’s not sure how much action he’ll receive during this week’s minicamp.

“I don’t know,” Beckham said. “I don’t have a set play amount.”

Even though Beckham declined to put a percentage on how healthy he is, the good news is that he said his knee is pain-free right now.

“Yeah, I feel good,” he said. “It feels good to feel like if I needed to take off running right now, I could take off running. It’s been a long journey this time around, and it was a long process. So I just have to take that for what it was.”

Harbaugh said Beckham is excited about returning, and the Ravens are excited to have him in the building and be part of a receiver room Harbaugh is bullish on.

“You love great players and guys who love football,” Harbaugh said, via NFL Network’s Sherree Burruss. “(Beckham) loves ball, and we want guys who want to be here. That combo is good.

“He’s a highly decorated player. Worked hard to get himself to this point, sure he’s a little anxious getting back for the first time. Good first step.”

PITTSBURGH

RB NAJEE HARRIS expects to defy the odds and be a long term running back.  Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com:

With prominent veteran running backs prematurely hitting the market recently, Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris said Tuesday he doesn’t buy into the narrative that his position has a short shelf life.

Both Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott were released from lucrative deals by their longtime teams this offseason, while New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley was franchise-tagged.

“To see people like that get released, especially in my position, it’s like, damn, what did they do?” Harris said at Steelers minicamp. “Is it because of their age? You know what I mean? Dalvin Cook is coming off of multiple 1,000 yard seasons. What? I don’t know. Is it money from the team? They got to pay somebody? I don’t know. But it’s eye-opening, for sure.”

Earlier this week, Harris showed support for his position mates, reposting an interview clip of Barkley saying that he believes the top three running backs this year — himself, Tony Pollard and Josh Jacobs — were tagged to keep them from hitting the open market and cap their salaries at $10 million, depressing the overall market for running backs.

“What we go through is probably one of the roughest positions,” Harris said. “I’m just advocating … I agree with pretty much what those guys are saying. I’m a running back myself, and I’m pretty sure any running backs who will want to come in the league … people going around and telling them, ‘If you want to get paid, don’t be a running back.'”

Harris, 25, has long been a vocal advocate for running backs, dating back to draft night in 2021, when the Steelers selected him with the No. 24 overall pick.

Since then, he’s been a key piece of the Steelers’ offense as their primary back in each of the past two seasons. Though he battled a foot injury through training camp and the early part of the 2022 season, Harris’ surge after the bye led to a second consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season with 10 total touchdowns.

“The position is an art to me,” Harris said. “I’ll always love the position. You could do so much. It’s almost as if you’re a queen in chess. You could do a lot of things: Line up out wide, run the ball, protection. [You] could be implemented in the offense so much. For them to say a position is not as valued, it’s kind of crazy.”

After his rookie season, Harris added muscle and adopted an intensive training regime, including boxing, to maintain his body and increase his longevity. He also practices yoga during the season, all in an effort to prolong his career and buck the narrative around running backs.

“All l I could do is take care of my body and show them that I’m still available,” Harris said. “I guess [what] all running backs could do is really just show that the best ability is availability. So, me just showing that I’m still who I said I was when I first got in [the NFL] … I think that’s important. With age, you can’t stop that. They just think when you turn a certain age and it’s over with, which is the craziest thing possible. There’s people in this league who’s 30, 40.

“I think it’s just a matter of how you take care of your body. I think that plays a big role. LeBron said he spent millions of dollars on his body. I mean, ain’t going to say I spent a million, but I spend a lot of money on my body, too, because I know the best ability is availability.”

HOUSTON

Rookie QB BRYCE YOUNG is the number one already in Carolina, but the QB taken behind him has yet to be anointed.  DJ Bien-Amie of ESPN.com:

Texans coach DeMeco Ryans said Tuesday that the team will have an open quarterback competition between C.J. Stroud and Davis Mills going into training camp.

“We’ll see where their process goes in training camp and see as the competition continues,” Ryans said after the first day of mandatory minicamp. “We’ll see who separates themselves.”

Throughout OTAs and minicamp, Stroud, this year’s No. 2 pick, and Mills have rotated reps with the first-team offense. During the first day of minicamp, Stroud ran with the first team, but Ryans cited that it was Stroud’s turn to operate with the starting unit.

“They’ve been rotating each week,” Ryans said. “As you guys came to practice, you’ve seen we’ve rotated those guys each week, and this just happened to be the week that C.J. was running with the 1s.”

The Texans decided to do the opposite of what the Carolina Panthers did this past Thursday when the Panthers named No. 1 pick Bryce Young the Week 1 starter, as they will have the competition continue into camp.

The Texans selected Stroud hoping he could become the franchise quarterback they’ve been searching for since trading former quarterback Deshaun Watson. In the past two seasons, the Texans rank 31st in QBR (33.3).

Quarterbacks drafted in the top five commonly start Week 1 of their rookie season. Since the 2011 NFL collective bargaining agreement, among the 17 quarterbacks selected in the top five, 11 have started in Week 1.

But if Stroud doesn’t secure the starting role, the franchise will turn to Mills, who has started 26 games in the past two seasons for the Texans. In those starts, he has thrown 33 touchdowns and 25 interceptions and posted a record of 5-19-1.

Even though Stroud is in an open competition, Ryans is still impressed with his development.

“The best thing I’ve seen about C.J. with his improvement and his growth is he doesn’t make the same mistake twice,” Ryans said. “He learns from his mistakes; he puts those behind him; and he finds a way to continue to improve and get better.”

BUFFALO

WR STEFON DIGGS has been absent in Buffalo.  Jordan Dejani of CBSSports.com:

The Buffalo Bills’ beginning to mandatory minicamp was strange to say the least. Everyone was in attendance on Tuesday — minus one very important player. Star wideout Stefon Diggs did not report for Day 1 of camp, and head coach Sean McDermott told reporters that he’s “very concerned” about the situation.

Diggs’ agent, Adisa Bakari, subsequently addressed the situation Tuesday (via ESPN). Bakari said Diggs is in Buffalo, has been in Buffalo since Monday morning, took a physical and even met with McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane. Bakari said Diggs “will be there for the entirety of the minicamp.”

According to CBS Sports NFL Insider Jonathan Jones, Diggs was present at the team facilities on Monday and Tuesday morning, but left before the beginning of practice. The issue is not related to Diggs’ contract, per NFL Media.

After the practice session, Bills quarterback Josh Allen told reporters that the issue was not related to football.

“I know internally we’re working on some things. Not football-related, but Stef, he’s my guy,” Allen said. “Excuse my … I f*****g love him. He’s a brother of mine. This does not work, what we’re doing here, without him.

“But I’ve got his back no matter what.”

When Allen was asked to elaborate about Diggs’ absence not being related to football, he said this:

“I mean I think it has more to do than just football, is what I’m basically saying,” Allen said. “I think there’s the football piece, one, and then stuff that happens due to football. And I’ll just kind of keep it at that.”

Diggs responds, cryptically, as covered by Larry Brown of Larry Brown Sports:

Stefon Diggs appeared to address his absence from the Buffalo Bills’ mandatory minicamp on Tuesday with a post on his Instagram story.

Diggs was not present for the start of the team’s 3-day minicamp. Complicating matters, Bills head coach Sean McDermott said he was “very concerned” by Diggs’ absence.

Diggs appeared to respond to the matter by sharing a written message to his Instagram story.

“I just be letting people cap. If them lies help you sleep better tell em big dawg,” Diggs wrote.

“Cap” is slang for “lie,” so Diggs is suggesting that people are lying about his situation.

Nobody seems to know what Diggs’ issue is, much less what kind of lies he might be protesting. Diggs’ agent tried to address matters, but he didn’t shed much light on the situation.

Diggs just signed a 4-year, $96 million contract extension with the Bills last year. He would cost the Bills over $45 million in dead cap money, so cutting him is not an option.

Whatever the issue is, the Bills need to figure it out.

THIS AND THAT

BIG TEN SCHEDULING

The Big Ten released its schedule plan and as Dan Wetzel of YahooSports.com explains Penn State was left holding an empty bag:

In the 30 years since Penn State entered the Big Ten Conference, it always seemed pretty obvious what the most anticipated game on the Nittany Lions schedule was.

Ohio State.

Maybe not every year, but most of them. And even though the Buckeyes have dominated the series of late by winning six consecutive and 10 of 11, the games were often hard fought, extremely close and generally dramatic — that includes three Buckeye comebacks and a double-overtime thriller.

Besides, not many teams beat Ohio State (it’s not like Michigan did any better until the past two seasons).

Whatever it was, the Buckeye game meant sold-out, six-figure crowds, often hyped-up “white outs” in State College and massive television ratings. The schools share a border, a history of excellence and plenty of familiarity, especially in recruiting.

It sure felt like a rivalry.

Apparently it wasn’t.

The Big Ten is expanding to 16 teams in 2024. The arrival of USC and UCLA, plus college football’s trend of getting rid of divisions, meant that the league needed to revamp how the schedule is made.

Its stated goal was to protect the best rivalries, essential matchups that need to be staged each year no matter how large the league gets. It came up with 11 of them.

They make sense. Indiana-Purdue, for example. Michigan-Ohio State, obviously. USC-UCLA, for sure.

Here is each of the 16 teams’ protected games.

Illinois: Northwestern, Purdue

Indiana: Purdue

Iowa: Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Maryland: Rutgers

Michigan: Michigan State, Ohio State

Michigan State: Michigan

Minnesota: Iowa, Wisconsin

Nebraska: Iowa

Northwestern: Illinois

Ohio State: Michigan

Penn State: no one

Purdue: Illinois, Indiana

Rutgers: Maryland

UCLA: USC

USC: UCLA

Wisconsin: Iowa, Minnesota

Iowa has three rivals. Michigan, Minnesota and Illinois have two.

Penn State, somehow, has none?

At least the Big Ten didn’t try to pretend the battle for the “Governor’s Victory Bell” with Minnesota was anything more than a manufactured attempt at a rivalry that almost no one knows exists. The (mostly) annual end of the season clash with Michigan State for the “Land Grant Trophy” has been competitive (PSU leads 9-8 over the past two decades) but in truth it never inspired much fervor.

Ohio State was it. That’s the rivalry. That’s the game.

Yet as is too often the case in modern college football, reasons that have nothing to do with actual fan interest get in the way.

They’ll play every other year, now. They’ll make just one trip to the other’s stadium every four years.

Or half as often as Rutgers and Maryland.

Penn State will no longer play Michigan and Ohio State every year — with each visiting in alternate seasons. This works in reverse, also. Were there a lot of Ohio State and Michigan fans seeking fewer annual circle-the-date home games with a big-name opponent?

Penn State’s Big Ten home schedule in 2025? Illinois, Minnesota, Rutgers and UCLA. That’s a kick in the shins (or bank account) for Lion fans.

College football has had to endure conference realignment, which have split up long-standing rivalries, brought in unfamiliar foes and generally decreased the collegiality of it all. It’s all about money that will be spent by administrators and coaches on fancy facilities and fatter guaranteed contracts.

The new Big Ten will require more travel and fewer traditional games. To make the expansion dollars work, some broadcasts will be shifted to pay streaming service Peacock. More late-season games will go to prime time, no matter the realities of November weather.

The burden falls on the fans.

And yet are the games better? Are the matchups more anticipated?

No, the schools just crank out the public relations campaign that convinces some fans that worse is somehow better, that easy games are preferred to challenging ones. Plenty of fans will buy it.

In the SEC, a move from an eight-game conference season to a nine-game one was blocked because too many schools blocked the move so they could set up an easier schedule filled with non-conference cupcakes. That means fewer Alabama or LSU visits and more FCS opponents.

Competitively, perhaps this is good if all you care about is maneuvering through the softest possible slate. Unfortunately, too many people like that are running the sport.

Is the Penn State decision about helping Ohio State, who gets to avoid having to play the Lions and Wolverines each season? Why care about that? The Buckeyes have been playing both for decades and the program has dominated the league because of it, not in spite of it.

This is short-sighted thinking. This is fiefdom protection.

The playoff is expanding which means losing a game isn’t the death knell it once was. Yet the schedules are somehow getting easier (or at least less exciting)?

Here in 2023, it has been declared Penn State has no rival. You’re expected to believe it. And buy it.

Did anyone know that Purdue-Illinois was a rivalry?

Is Iowa-Wisconsin really worth Hawkeyes getting a 3^rd rivalry game that no one else has?

If not Ohio State, couldn’t Penn State have a rivalry game with Rutgers or Maryland?

Mark Wrogenrich of Bleacher Report thinks Penn State’s rivalry free status is a benefit (i.e. they won’t lose to Ohio State every year):

At first glance, Penn State seemed to be missing its invitation to the new Big Ten. The conference’s other 15 teams, including five that joined after Penn State, retained at least one rivalry game in the Big Ten football scheduling model that begins in 2024. Penn State is the only program without one.

Does that mean Penn State has no defined Big Ten rival? In a sense, yes. Is that negative? Not necessarily. Actually, Penn State essentially is a conference independent, which affords scheduling leeway other programs don’t have. It’s forward-looking and acknowledges that tradition exists while being unbound to it. It’s a good place for Penn State.

The Big Ten recently announced its new scheduling model for the 16-team football conference that will include USC and UCLA beginning in 2024. The schedule features 11 so-called “protected” games, or rivalry games, that will continue to be played annually. The list includes those dear to the Big Ten’s heart: Ohio State-Michigan, Minnesota-Wisconsin, Michigan State-Michigan, Purdue-Indiana, Northwestern-Illinois and, of course, newcomers Rutgers-Maryland and USC-UCLA.

While every other team plays at least one annual rivalry game (Iowa gets three), Penn State goes it alone. Penn State didn’t necessarily explain why, referring a request for explanation to the Big Ten. The conference didn’t respond, though Big Ten Chief Operating Officer Kerry Kenny told The Athletic that, well, 11 rivalry games seemed like enough.

“With Penn State in particular, we obviously know that they’ve got some competitive rivalries, some regional rivalries, some trophy-game rivalries,” Kenny said according to The Athletic. “Ohio State-Penn State was definitely on the table for discussion. But where we landed with the final 11 projected opponents was what the entire group felt was in kind of the right spot for us to land to be able to make this model work moving forward.”

Penn State fans have known that for the better part of three decades that their football team hasn’t built a true, embittered Big Ten rival. No doubt, individual games have generated moments of rivalry: Tony Johnson being ruled out-of-bounds on a fourth-quarter catch vs. Michigan in 2002, those extra 2 seconds at Michigan in 2005, Ohio State’s bonus time for a field goal in 2014, Maryland refusing a captains’ handshake in 2014, the Iowa fake-injury fiasco of 2021, etc.

But these moments of sports hate don’t necessarily have to be resuscitated annually. Instead, Penn State can play a rotating three-team cluster on the Big Ten’s Flex Protect Plus plan without having to bang heads against Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State or Iowa annually. It’s a win for the Lions.

To continue rivalry games, the Big Ten asked programs to request them. Naturally, Ohio State and Michigan requested The Game, as did other programs playing for axes, buckets and pigs. But Penn State and its potential rivals chose not to request games. Which makes sense.

Why would Ohio State and Michigan want to continue playing Penn State as well if, as the Big Ten says, the scheduling model is designed to “create access for programs into an expanded College Football Playoff”? Similarly, why would Michigan State? And why would Rutgers and/or Maryland (a combined 2-14 vs. Penn State since joining the Big Ten) want to host Penn State for what has amounted to regional recruiting opposition research every other year?

If Penn State doesn’t have to visit Ohio State (where it’s 2-13 since joining the Big Ten) every other year, that’s a competitive win. If the Terps (3-42-1 lifetime against Penn State) don’t have to play the Lions annually, that’s a win for them. As Maryland coach Mike Locksley said before playing Penn State in 2022, “It’s not a rivalry game. Obviously we have to compete a little better to get it to that level.”

There are some caveats. Without a protected rival, Penn State is at the mercy of central scheduling. That could affect ticket sales. Of the 10 largest crowds at Beaver Stadium, seven were for games against Ohio State or Michigan. Neither visits Penn State during the 2025 season, whose Big Ten home schedule is meager: Illinois, Minnesota, Rutgers, and UCLA. The non-conference opponents (so far Nevada and Villanova) bring no heat, so unless Penn State adds a blockbuster noncon game, 2025’s home card is pretty bland. That might be a good year for Penn State to accelerate renovation plans at Beaver Stadium.

Penn State coach James Franklin foreshadowed this moment in 2015. A year before, Penn State introduced #PSUnrivaled as a branding concept and social media hashtag for a program with a first-year coach coming out of NCAA sanctions. So at Big Ten media days, Franklin was asked who is Penn State’s rival. “If you look at Penn State historically, we have not really had a true rival per se in the Big Ten,” he said.

Penn State now exists in a rivalry limbo where it has parted ways with Pitt while not shifting that sports venom elsewhere. Does the Land Grant Trophy really make anyone take sides? Yet that’s OK. For the rest of the Big Ten, annual rivalries are bloodsport. But at Penn State, going unrivaled might make more sense.

Here are Penn State’s opponents for 2024 and 2025 – and we note they get a West Coast team coming to Happy Valley each year:

2024

Home:

Michigan State,

Nebraska,

Northwestern,

Ohio State,

USC

Away:

Indiana,

Purdue,

Rutgers,

Wisconsin

2025

Home:

Illinois,

Minnesota,

Rutgers,

UCLA

Away:

Iowa,

Maryland,

Michigan,

Michigan State,

USC

2024 DRAFT

Diante Lee of The Athletic tries to see how the Class of 2024 QBs will translate to the pro game.

Turn on a college football game any given Saturday and take note of how often you hear “run-pass option” — or “RPO” — mentioned by the broadcasting team. It’s hard not to notice how deeply RPOs have been woven into the sport, so much so that announcers sometimes are quick to (incorrectly) reference them for little reason beyond a quarterback’s lining up in the shotgun.

In college football, because the hashes are so wide and offensive linemen are given latitude to block downfield on passes, RPOs can provide a significant tactical advantage. They’re also a great way to mask whether a QB is actually good enough to succeed at the next level.

So, when analyzing RPO-era quarterbacks with an NFL Draft lens, how can you control for scheme trends, talent disparities and the functional differences between college football and the pros to sort out who has a chance? That’s the question we’re tackling here, as we start to analyze the 2024 draft’s quarterback prospects.

The method

What’s the best way to find that context for the ’24 class? The answer begins with culling, because — counterintuitive as this sounds — it’s extremely difficult to get a clear picture of a passer’s profile by looking at the entire volume of their throws.

If we consider RPOs, throws behind the line of scrimmage or those in the “checkdown zone” to be noisy, low-value attempts from a scouting perspective, we’ll have a better idea of which quarterbacks carry the strongest indicators of future success. We’re looking for those who can make the downfield throws NFL offenses need to survive. (Note: For the sake of this exercise, “downfield throws” are those that travel at least 5 air yards.)

go-deeper

Filtering out throws with typically high completion rates makes traditional metrics like completion percentage and yards per attempt less valuable. It’s also worthwhile to account for throws that traveled 5 or more yards but still fell short of the sticks, especially on third or fourth down. For that reason, we’ll use success rate to measure efficiency and expected points added (EPA) to track explosiveness.

None of this is to say that RPOs are worthless. Tua Tagovailoa threw slants in Miami; Aaron Rodgers threw bubbles in Green Bay; every coach under the Andy Reid tree runs them often. The more offenses adopt shotgun running games, the more we will see other traditionalists embrace the advent. But we need to be sure our metrics reflect the most useful elements of the game at its highest level.

We’re building a baseline, using 19 prominent quarterbacks who will be eligible for the 2024 NFL Draft. In total, those players threw more than 2,900 passes of 5-plus yards last season without the use of an RPO or play-action fake. (Note: Tennessee QB Joe Milton, another 2024 draft prospect, didn’t have enough dropbacks under the set parameters to make this particular sample.)

Their numbers will be measured below against the averages of the 19-player sample. What can we learn about these prospects?

The numbers

We can start looking for potential trouble spots among next year’s prospects by finding those who fell below the averages on true downfield throws.

The tape reveals a common issue for those QBs: poor accuracy.

Texas’ Quinn Ewers, South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler and Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel acutely struggled in this manner last season. Strip away the deep shots off of play action — which negatively affect the stability of a passing attack — and it reveals their issues throwing with touch in intermediate areas, especially over the middle of the field. Passes often sailed or landed behind receivers, telltale signs that a QB is late on his progression, off-balance and trying to heave the ball before the defense can close the window. There are some ways to work around anticipatory issues in a quarterback, but not when they’re coupled with poor ball placement.

Next, let’s look at how the 2024 QB prospects fared against four-man pass rushes — a key to keeping offense on or ahead of schedule in the modern NFL.

USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye are college football’s most punishing forces in the dropback game (which is why they sit atop the 2024 draft-eligible QB hierarchy), but the differences in their play styles are apparent.

Maye is the definition of polished as a dropback passer. If you’re looking for stylistic/athletic comparisons, I’d say he lands somewhere in the cluster of Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. The velocity on his throws is more “good” than “great,” and he’s more of a sneaky/slippery athlete than a twitchy one. His balance and poise in the pocket are elite, though, and that body control is why he’s so consistently accurate and ready to deliver the ball at all three levels.

If there’s any nitpicking to be done at this point, it’s with how long Maye hangs in the pocket — but it rarely lands him in trouble.

Williams exists on the opposite end of the spectrum. Some of his fundamentals are raw, but his arm talent and athletic ability are eye-popping. Williams is a chaos agent, often painting himself into a corner by locking on one receiver or part of the progression too long. But there’s no dissolving pocket Williams can’t squeak out of, and he can bring defensive coordinators to their knees when he breaks contain.

Even if coverage is tight or his throwing platform is awkward, Williams can generate velocity and accuracy from any launch angle, and he’s already built a significant highlight reel of long gains on scrambles. The issue with Williams is how often he misses guys breaking open on the backside of progressions, because of an over-reliance on his legs to get him out of trouble.

And there’s no way for a quarterback to fully avoid trouble. Pictures change rapidly before and after the snap at the next level. How an offense performs in those moments is an important gauge of whether a scheme has answers — and how consistently the quarterback can access them.

2024 QBs versus blitzes (five-man rush)

It’s in these circumstances that we see confirmation of Williams’ and Maye’s strengths and weaknesses. Maye can maintain success because of his control from the pocket and sharp execution of the progression, although he can get into trouble at times by holding the ball too long.

Williams, meanwhile, still can create explosive offense, but his down-to-down effectiveness takes a big dip when he’s blitzed. On tape, that extends to when coverage shells change. Williams struggled in the first half of last season when teams gave him different looks or dropped eight into coverage — he ranked 10th of these 19 QBs sampled in EPA per downfield throw against three-man rushes. Maye could benefit from borrowing Williams’ willingness to run, and Williams from Maye’s confidence in working through the progression.

Beyond the top two, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix stood out against blitzing defenses. Those two are true veterans of the college game, so it’s not surprising they’d perform well against defenses they’ve probably seen hundreds of times. It’s still no less stark to see them with matching zero-percent sack rates here.

Nix has quietly improved year over year, and he’s beginning to make the connection between his physical gifts and his football IQ in terms of navigating the rush and cutting up defenses with his arm and legs.

Penix is a different case, after tears in both ACLs sapped some of the agility he had during his time at Indiana. At Washington, he’s become more of a pure pocket passer, which makes his combination of zero sacks taken and zero scrambles attempted against five-man rushes an anomaly. Penix is a capable passer who throws with touch and can diagnose defenses pre-snap to find favorable matchups. He was driving a Ferrari last season, though, with two legitimate No. 1 options at receiver and an excellent offensive line.

Beyond Penix’s supporting cast, even the biggest Washington fans would have to acknowledge that regression to the mean is more likely than a repeat of his 2022 season. That line of thinking applies to Nix at Oregon, too.

Still, whether dealing with a four-man rush, a blitz or a spy, what separates good and great QBs is how they handle pressure. Though almost every quarterback sees a production dip when rushers are closing in, finding a potential star means identifying players who don’t wilt so suddenly.

In that light, again, Maye and Williams have separated from the pack.

Not only did Williams register an EPA of just under .8 per downfield throw when pressured — an incredible number, by the way — but also his off-target rate (12.8 percent) was lower than against the standard four-man rush (14.6 percent). It can be bothersome to watch Williams create his own pressure at times, but there’s no denying what he can do out of structure.

For Maye, I’m most impressed with how effective he is as a scrambler after being pressured. It comes back to stability and consistency across the board for him. There are so few instances in which you feel concerned about how he approaches the game mentally, nor are there any physical deficiencies to be exploited.

Two more fascinating QB prospects who haven’t come up yet: LSU’s Jayden Daniels, and Duke’s Riley Leonard.

Leonard is the dark horse of this QB class, although that’s mostly because not enough people watched Duke play last year. In terms of physical gifts and pocket navigation, Leonard has all the necessary abilities to thrive at the next level. He’s efficient in working through his progressions, places the ball well (especially in contested situations) and can escape pockets to create offense on his own.

Across the board, his production and play style didn’t change no matter what defenses threw at him in 2022. The only thing he needs to clean up is his misses in the intermediate area, which seem to happen when he’s trying to generate more velocity than is necessary.

Daniels’ passing production has fallen off a cliff when he’s been pressured, but he was exceptional as a passer by all other metrics. Under pressure, he breaks down in ways most QBs do: dropping his eyes and abandoning the progression downfield. However, because of his elite burst and long speed, Daniels isn’t a lost cause.

2024 QB tiers (and final notes)

There is plenty of time between now and the 2024 draft for evaluations to shift, but here’s how I’d split the top QB prospects headed into the summer:

Tier 1 (high Day 1 picks): Drake Maye, Caleb Williams

Both prospects should have a legitimate case as the top pick in next year’s draft.

The teams with more rigid schemes reminiscent of past eras will lean toward Maye — I’m thinking of Tennessee, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Minnesota, the Rams, Las Vegas and Detroit. Those offenses still closely adhere to the original philosophies and structures of the West Coast offense. Those that are more open to the spread, to using their QBs as runners, and to embracing more volatility in a hunt for explosive offense will probably prefer Williams — think Washington, the Giants, Arizona, and Atlanta.

go-deeper

In the right fits, Maye can be the next super-computer QB, like Justin Herbert or Lawrence. Williams has drawn some obvious Patrick Mahomes comparisons (and I think Josh Allen is a possibility, too), but I’d caution against using the current version of Mahomes as a reference. If we see anything like 2018 and 2019 Mahomes from Williams, though, that’d be more than enough.

Tier 2 (late Day 1/early Day 2 picks): Jayden Daniels, Riley Leonard, Bo Nix

If Daniels runs at next year’s combine, I expect him to land in the 4.48-to-4.52-second range. He has grown enough as a passer and has the athletic ability needed to stay around the top five of his position.

Tier 3 (late Day 2 picks): Michael Penix Jr., Michael Pratt, J.J. McCarthy

Pratt will be a fascinating test case for what the NFL thinks about the classic pocket-passer type. The Tulane QB has legitimate arm talent, rarely puts the ball in harm’s way and has a clear understanding of how to read through his progressions. His problem is that he’s not a creative athlete or passer, and that’s why his numbers drop when he’s blitzed and crater when he’s pressured.

Tier 4 (early Day 3 picks): Jordan Travis, Sam Hartman, Devin Leary, Grayson McCall

No matter how wide you cast the net, statistical data can’t be a catch-all for the quality of a player’s performance. Hartman, Travis and Jefferson are prime examples in this upcoming class, as each player has produced metrics that belie what you see on tape.

Tier 5 (late Day 3 picks/potential UDFAs): KJ Jefferson, Quinn Ewers, Spencer Rattler, Dillon Gabriel, Cameron Ward, Will Rogers, DJ Uiagalelei

Jefferson is just not accurate enough outside the hashes to seriously consider as a top-end QB, no matter what the numbers say. Hartman lacks some necessary arm talent, and he manages the pocket poorly — Wake Forest’s unique scheme isn’t to blame for the latter. Travis is an excellent athlete and has a high football IQ, but he doesn’t have a strong enough arm to threaten defenses vertically.

Those three are examples of good college football players who lack the required elite abilities to make the leap to the next level.

In all of this, removing those “gimme” throws — like those we sometimes see off RPOs — not only gives us a clearer picture of which prospects are in the top tier as dropback passers, but also it provides definitive evidence of QBs who were disproportionately propped up by scheme. Similarly, removing all play-action fakes wipes out a large chunk of the max-protection, deep-shot offense that doesn’t translate to how a professional game is played.

By studying the tape to confirm the data, we can identify the dynamic athletes, the strong arms and the quick processors just as well as we identified those with accuracy issues or those who struggle when their first read is taken away.

Solving the problem of finding a franchise quarterback can’t be done in a spreadsheet alone, but the right data and context can inch us another step closer.