The Daily Briefing Wednesday, June 17, 2020

AROUND THE NFL

Daily Briefing

The good news is the NFL anticipates a Hall of Fame Game in Ohio in nearly two months time.  The bad news, this far out, Governor Mike DeWine (R) is saying it will be fan free.  This even though the State of Ohio has blessed limited spectators at The Memorial PGA TOUR event between now and then.  Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com:

If the Hall of Fame Game happens, it likely will be without fans in attendance, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine said Tuesday.

 

The game is scheduled for Aug. 6 in Canton, Ohio, between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Dallas Cowboys as a part of the enshrinement weekend at the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

 

“As much as I hate to say this, because we’ve all been looking forward to that and I know how much it means to the Canton area and the Stark County area and, really, across the country, it’s a great, great event that we’ve been looking forward to, [but] having a crowd that size is highly unlikely,” DeWine said via WKYC-TV. “Certainly, it could not occur today. It would be very dangerous to do it today.

 

“Again, we have to see where we are at that point, but that’s a large crowd, a lot of people together. These are the things that we’ve talked about all the way through this as we open Ohio up and we get back to work and we get back to doing the things that we like, probably the last things that are going to be able to be open are the big crowds, particularly when you have big crowds that are close together. So we have to continue to look at it and make decisions as we move forward, but if the question was, ‘could that even occur today?’ the answer would be, ‘no.'”

 

Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium has a capacity of 23,000.

– – –

Presumably there will be fans by January when Vegas hosts the 2021 Pro Bowl.

The Pro Bowl is headed to Las Vegas.

 

The NFL announced Tuesday that the 2021 all-star game will be played at the new Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Sunday, Jan. 31 — one week before the Super Bowl in Tampa.

 

Plans include what the league calls a week-long celebration of football, and will include NFL FLAG Championship games and a Pro Bowl skills showdown in which players compete in a variety of events. There will be community and charity initiatives as well.

 

“We look forward to partnering with the Raiders and the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority to bring the excitement of Pro Bowl week to our Las Vegas fans and community for the first time,” said Peter O’Reilly, NFL executive vice president of club business and league events.

 

The game was played in Orlando the past four years.

 

All NFL activities during Pro Bowl week will adhere to the latest public safety guidelines set by medical and public health officials, as well as operate in full compliance with all local and federal government regulations, the league said.

 

The game has gone back to the traditional AFC versus NFC format and will have 88 players voted in by fans, players and coaches.

Peter O’Reilly is a new name on the NFL release, but he’s been around awhile. He took his position, with a slightly different name in 2014.  The 48-year-old is a graduate of the University of Notre Dame and holds a master’s degree in business administration from Harvard Business School.

NFC EAST

 

DALLAS

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com believes, exhaustively, that QB DAK PRESCOTT deserves every possible penny.  We edited his opus, hopefully without damaging his impressive array of argument which at the very least will convince you that he deserves every penny given to JARED GOFF or CARSON WENTZ and a few more.

The Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott are locked in the highest-stakes game of chicken in NFL history. The team has until 4 p.m. ET on July 15 to sign its quarterback to a long-term extension. If the two sides fail to come to terms, Prescott will likely sign his franchise tag and play out the 2020 season on a one-year, $31.4 million deal. The 26-year-old will also move one year closer to unrestricted free agency, where the Cowboys would run the risk of losing their franchise passer for nothing more than a midround compensatory pick.

 

The NFL is not typically a league in which players or teams like to entertain risk, especially when it comes to quarterbacks. When teams have valuable quarterbacks, they’re usually willing to do what it takes to hold on to them for as long as possible. And likewise, when players come due for a new deal, the league’s attrition rate usually leads them to take the best deal available as early as one is offered.

 

The Prescott negotiations are a rare exception to that rule, in part because it’s possible to project just about any sentiment you want onto him. He’s a game manager. He’s a hidden superstar. He’s greedy. He’s underpaid. Depending on whom you ask, Prescott is either a system quarterback or he’s the system itself.

 

In a league in which virtually nobody blinks an eye at a starting quarterback getting paid, everybody seems to have a strong opinion about Prescott, and the range of those opinions stretches from paying him top-of-the-line money to arguing that the Cowboys should move on altogether. We’ll see where the case for Prescott lands by comparing him to Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, quarterbacks from his draft class who have already landed extensions. To start, though, we need to understand why these two sides haven’t been able to find common ground on a new deal.

 

The Prescott money discussion, from both sides

The fact that the Cowboys have even needed to use the franchise tag on Prescott makes this a unique situation. To put things in context, since the 2011 collective bargaining agreement instituted a rookie scale and dramatically reduced rookie salaries, just two quarterbacks were slapped with the franchise tag before Prescott. One was Drew Brees, who was 33 and already established as a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback when the Saints used the tag in 2012 to retain his rights before negotiating an extension in July. The other was Kirk Cousins, who was tagged twice by Washington (2016 and 2017). We’ll get to Cousins later.

 

When the league instituted that rookie scale, it made rookie quarterbacks the biggest bargain in football. In the process, it also incentivized quarterbacks to get off those rookie extensions and onto long-term deals as early as possible, even if it meant taking what amounted to smaller deals in the process.

 

With Goff and Wentz, this meant signing extensions after three seasons, even though they still had two years left to go on their rookie contracts. Take Wentz’s four-year, $128 million deal. Do simple division and you’ll see that deal coming in at $32 million per season, which was the league’s third-largest average on paper when it was signed. What’s missing there, though, is that the Eagles already had Wentz signed for two years at a total of $26.8 million as part of his rookie deal and folded that into the extension. In reality, the Eagles have Wentz under contract for six years and $154.8 million. His average annual salary is $25.8 million, which is a dramatic difference from the extension terms on paper.

 

Prescott was an even bigger bargain. As a fourth-round pick in 2016, the Cowboys paid him a little over $4 million combined across his first four years in the NFL. The only downside for the team is that first-round picks like Wentz and Goff have fifth-year options attached to their deals, while a fourth-rounder like Prescott does not. After his third year, the Cowboys reportedly offered him an extension averaging $33 million per season. He declined.

 

You can see this as greed, although that’s patently unfair, given that Prescott averaged only $1 million per season over his first four years when lesser quarterbacks like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco were making north of $20 million per season over that time frame. The Cowboys couldn’t hand Prescott an extension until the end of his third campaign, but as a result of a CBA he didn’t negotiate, he was likely underpaid to the tune of $80 million or more over the course of his recently expired rookie deal.

 

His decision to turn down the deal — and the inability of these two sides to find common ground on an extension — comes down to where the market is heading. The Cowboys don’t have any more of those rookie years to use as leverage in driving down his price tag, which is why they need to pay more than what Wentz or Goff received. They’ve suggested that Prescott should take a discount or accept what the team is offering to try to accommodate the organization.

 

What makes that language particularly jarring is that the Cowboys, more than anybody else in football, have been comfortable paying their stars top-tier money. Ezekiel Elliott, Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence, Jaylon Smith and most recently Amari Cooper have signed massive extensions. Putting those deals in context reveals just how aggressive this team has been in paying top-dollar deals.

 

Elliott, Tyron Smith and Martin were handed the largest average annual salary among players on multiyear deals at their respective positions when they signed new deals. Lawrence and Cooper were given the second-largest average annual salaries, while Jaylon Smith was fourth. Before them, the Cowboys placed the likes of Sean Lee, Dez Bryant and Travis Frederick in a similar stratosphere. These players weren’t forced to take or even really discuss pay cuts or hometown discounts on their second contracts to stay in Dallas.

 

Typically, the Cowboys try to account for those salaries on paper by offering the longest contracts in football. Elliott and Martin signed six-year extensions, while Tyron Smith was locked up on an eight-year pact. Those deals allow the team to hand out large salaries and then repeatedly restructure those contracts to create short-term cap space. It’s a great plan when everyone stays healthy and productive, but when things go wrong, it can be disastrous. Dallas handed Tony Romo a huge extension in 2013 to help create cap space and then repeatedly restructured the deal; when Romo got injured and lost his job to Prescott, the Cowboys were forced to pay out nearly $20 million in dead money on their cap for their former starter.

 

All of this gets to the crux of the Prescott contract negotiations: length. The Cowboys have repeatedly leaked elements of various offers, suggesting that they’re willing to give him the second-highest average annual salary in the league while guaranteeing him something close to the $110 million Goff was given by the Rams. Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap ran the numbers and projected a logical contract for Prescott coming in at an average annual salary of $35.5 million with a guarantee somewhere around $90 million. (These “guarantees” aren’t the real guarantees, since they’re likely only partial guarantees for injury.) Essentially, he’s going to get somewhere between $32 million and $36 million and have three years of his new deal guaranteed.

 

Look at things from Prescott’s perspective. The top of the quarterback market perpetually rises as players sign new deals, and Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes are up for new contracts this year. He’s already guaranteed $31.4 million for 2020. If the Cowboys want to franchise him again in 2021, even if the salary cap falls by virtue of missing stadium revenue, Dallas would owe Prescott a 20% raise to $37.7 million next season. He could go year-to-year and make $69.1 million over the next two seasons without having to commit on a longer-term deal.

 

The biggest reason he would want to wait, as I’ve mentioned before, is what might be coming in 2022 and beyond. The league has already added two playoff teams to the mix for an extra playoff game. Its remaining television deals expire after 2021 (ESPN) and 2022 (CBS, NBC, and Fox). Projections suggest the league could double its rights fees from $7.5 billion to $15 billion.

 

In the process, the salary cap could skyrocket. The cap stands at $198.6 million and has jumped by an average of about 6% over the past seven seasons. After the league renegotiates the deals, the cap could jump dramatically. As was the case in the NBA, when players who came free at the right time ended up signing massive deals, NFL players will want to time their free agency for the moment after those rights fees hit if the cap rises by 15-20%.

 

The Cowboys would struggle to franchise tag Prescott in 2022, when it would cost the organization $54.3 million for a one-year deal. He would then become an unrestricted free agent, where he would have a massive amount of leverage in a league in which the cap was either undergoing or about to undergo a dramatic shift forward. After collecting that $69.1 million for two years with the Cowboys, Prescott could hit the market and sign a deal that seems ridiculous right now. Cousins signed a fully guaranteed, three-year, $84 million deal with the Vikings when that average salary represented 15.8% of the cap. Apply that same percentage to a $250 million cap in 2022, and Prescott could sign a three-year deal for $118.5 million, meaning he would take home nearly $188 million over a five-year period from 2020 to 2024. All of that money would be guaranteed and he would get a third crack at free agency before he turns 31.

 

If Prescott wants to maximize his money, he would go year-to-year and hit free agency. He would run the risk of suffering a catastrophic injury and missing out on future earnings, but he has been healthy as a pro — he has started 64 straight regular-season games — and has significant loss-of-value insurance. The best-case scenario would be for him to strike some middle ground where he signs a deal now and gets to free agency as quickly as possible, which is what we saw from lots of free agents who signed two- and three-year deals this offseason. Prescott would likely prefer a three- or four-year deal. For cap purposes and to avoid an even bigger third contract for him until absolutely necessary, the Cowboys would want a five- or six-year extension for their star quarterback.

 

The middle ground is a four- or five-year pact, which is where it will come down to the little things. Does Dallas offer a structure that practically guarantees the fourth season, like the Rams did with Goff? Will it hand Prescott a no-tag clause as part of the deal, as it did with Romo? Or will the team make Prescott its best offer on a five-year extension and dare the 26-year-old to blink?

 

Is Prescott really replaceable?

The biggest argument against the Cowboys paying Prescott has been the idea that he’s simply not worth the money, that the team is better off going with a cheaper quarterback and committing its money elsewhere. That player could be a draft pick or a veteran like Andy Dalton, whom Dallas was able to bring in on a one-year, $3 million deal after the Bengals cut the 32-year-old. I’ve argued in the past that a team could cycle through young quarterbacks, although that was for a scenario in which the team was trading its signal-caller for the draft picks it would need to target a replacement.

 

Either way, I’m not sure the Cowboys are that team. For one, they have not shown particularly good taste in quarterbacks. They famously wanted to draft Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook in 2016 and were beaten to the punch for both before settling for Prescott. In 2014, owner Jerry Jones had to be talked out of drafting Johnny Manziel and settled for Martin. Romo was an undrafted free agent in 2013, and even Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones admits that then-quarterbacks coach Sean Payton was the one who found the future CBS analyst.

 

In between Troy Aikman and Prescott, Dallas used a second-round pick on Quincy Carter and a fourth-rounder on Stephen McGee. Just four of the 79 quarterbacks chosen in the third, fourth or fifth rounds from 1995 to 2015 made a Pro Bowl in their first four seasons. Prescott has made two. There’s little reason to believe the Cowboys can just pluck another Prescott out of the draft in the middle rounds on the cheap. It would take a significant trade-up to put them in the position to draft a quarterback whom they would expect to be as good as what they have.

 

The idea that the Cowboys can plug in a veteran like Dalton at a fraction of the price point and get similar results is more plausible, although still unlikely.

– – –

The assumption that the Cowboys can just plug in somebody like Dalton and get Prescott-level results is also worth challenging. There’s unquestionably a perception in some circles that Prescott doesn’t push them toward success and that he’s a passenger as opposed to the driver of the Dallas offense. Let’s examine that next, and in doing so, let’s compare Prescott to Goff and Wentz, classmates who signed lucrative extensions with little of the debate that has surrounded Prescott.

 

Evaluating Prescott vs. his peers

Brushing with the broadest possible strokes, there’s no evidence suggesting Prescott is an ordinary quarterback. Twenty-five quarterbacks have thrown at least 1,200 passes (300 attempts per year) since Prescott entered the league in 2016. Here’s where he ranks among those quarterbacks, which includes just about every star passer besides Patrick Mahomes, by just about every statistic I could think of:

 

Completion percentage: 7th

Passing yards: 6th

Passing TDs: 9th

INTs: 11th

INT percentage: 8th

TD-to-INT ratio: 8th

Passer rating: 8th

Sack percentage: 15th

Yards/Attempt: 8th

Adjusted Yards/Att: 8th

Adjusted Net Yards/Att: 6th

Passing Yds/Game: 15th

Pass + Rush Yds/Game: 14th

Total QBR: 3rd

Passing DYAR: 6th

Pass + Rush DYAR: 5th

Total EPA: 2nd

Pass EPA: 6th

EPA/Dropback: 5th

CPOE: 5th

Pass Success Rate: 8th

 

Pick your favorite stat and you’ll typically find that Prescott ranks in the top 10.

 

I’ve included Prescott’s passing statistics and his combined numbers in that table, but an easy way to spot a lacking or incomplete argument regarding him is when his rushing numbers are left out of the equation. Prescott has been an incredibly valuable runner over the past four seasons. He’s second over that time frame among quarterbacks in rushing expected points added (EPA), fifth in rushing yards and third in first downs, and has a league-leading 21 rushing touchdowns. By Football Outsiders’ yards above replacement metric (DYAR), he has produced a league-best 404 DYAR over the past four seasons.

 

Of course, if the answers here were as clear as simply adding up Prescott’s career totals, I wouldn’t need to write this column. His skeptics discount those numbers as painting an inaccurate or partial truth of his actual performance level. Let’s drill down and see if they’re right by examining some of the common criticisms of the Mississippi State product:

 

Criticism No. 1: Prescott doesn’t win enough

The Cowboys are 40-24 over Prescott’s four seasons in the league, good for the NFL’s sixth-best mark. His winning percentage (.625) is better than that of Goff (.611) and Wentz (.571). They’ve each won two divisional titles over that time frame.

 

The playoffs! It has to be the playoffs. Prescott has gone 1-2 in three postseason appearances, while both Goff and Wentz have (technically) made it to the Super Bowl. Wentz was injured by the time the Eagles upset the Patriots in Minneapolis in Super Bowl LII; he has played a total of only one quarter of postseason action, having missed the 2017 and 2018 playoffs before suffering a concussion on a Jadeveon Clowney hit early in the first quarter of the 2019 wild-card loss to the Seahawks.

 

Goff is 2-2 in the postseason, having lost to the Falcons at home in the 2017 wild-card round before making a run to Super Bowl LIII the following season.

– – –

What about Prescott’s three appearances? (Details of his games) The other two quarterbacks have made it further, but Prescott has contributed more to the postseason cause than either Goff or Wentz.

 

Criticism No. 2: Prescott isn’t clutch when it matters most

By the numbers at Pro Football Reference, Prescott has led eight fourth-quarter comeback victories and produced 14 game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime. He has done more in those situations than either Wentz (six comebacks, eight game-winning drives) or Goff (six comebacks, seven drives). Over the past four seasons, he is tied for fifth in the league in fourth-quarter comebacks and tied for third in game-winning drives.

 

Let’s split it a different way. In the fourth quarter and overtime, when the game has been within eight points, Prescott has been excellent; he has the league’s ninth-best passer rating (104.8) and third-best QBR (79.2) when the game is late and within one score. Neither Goff or Wentz can compare.

 

Criticism No. 3: The Cowboys are built around Ezekiel Elliott, not Prescott

My colleague John Parolin addressed this premise in an article last month; it’s worth a read in its own right, but I’ll pass along Parolin’s finding that Prescott’s QBR is actually better without Elliott, one of the league’s best running backs, on the field.

 

Criticism No. 4: Prescott has been aided by a great supporting cast

No one could argue that Prescott will have some of the league’s best weapons in 2020 with Cooper, Elliott, Michael Gallup and rookie first-round pick CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys also have two of the best linemen in football in Tyron Smith and Martin, and they had a dominant center for Prescott’s first two seasons in Frederick. Frederick slipped a bit after returning from a rare virus in 2019 and then retired, but the Cowboys can still boast one of the league’s best lines on paper.

 

Prescott’s receivers weren’t always at this level. In 2016 and 2017, he was throwing to Beasley, Bryant, Witten and Williams. Bryant and Witten were big names, but they weren’t their peak selves. With Williams hitting injured reserve early in 2018, Prescott’s top receivers were Beasley, a rookie Gallup, Allen Hurns and Tavon Austin. The Cooper trade helped rescue a struggling Prescott by giving him a viable No. 1 option; the former Raiders standout led the Cowboys in receiving yards in 2018 despite playing only nine games in Dallas.

 

Even the most optimistic Rams fan would suggest Goff has been surrounded by an excellent supporting cast over the past three seasons; when we saw what had been a healthy offensive line collapse amid injuries and aging last year, Goff fell apart in the process. Goff posted a passer rating of 34.5 when pressured last season, which ranked last among the 32 starting quarterbacks; he was 16th in the league when unpressured.

 

This argument often revolves around Wentz, who has unquestionably had to deal with dismal receiving corps for stretches, particularly in 2016. He’s absolutely had worse wide receivers than Prescott, with Nelson Agholor, Alshon Jeffery, Jordan Matthews and Dorial Green-Beckham as his four most-targeted wide receivers, but he has also had far more talented tight ends in Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert and Trey Burton. Prescott has worked with Witten and Blake Jarwin as his primary weapons there. The Eagles have also generally had an excellent, expensively assembled offensive line.

 

It’s fair to say Prescott has had better weapons to work with than Wentz.

 

Criticism No. 5: Prescott makes too many mistakes

Any Twitter thread arguing that Prescott isn’t worthy of a new deal is going to mix in some clips in which he misses open receivers or holds onto the football too long and gets strip-sacked. Every quarterback in the NFL has this happen; you could make a bad-faith compilation of Mahomes misses early in games from this postseason and ignore the fact that he posted a passer rating of 111.5 in leading Kansas City to a Super Bowl title. The question is whether Prescott has problems at a rate higher than other quarterbacks.

 

Again, this doesn’t appear to be true. His interception rate is 1.7%, which ranks eighth out of those 25 quarterbacks. It’s better than Goff’s interception rate (2.2%) and is four-hundredths of a percentage point below Wentz, who is at 1.70% to Prescott’s 1.74%.

 

There were concerns about Prescott’s propensity to fumble after he racked up 12 in 2018. He has 31 over the past four seasons, which ranks 19th out of those 25 passers. It’s a weakness, but it’s also superior to the fumble totals recorded by Goff, who has 35, and Wentz, who has a league-high 48 fumbles over that same time frame.

 

Missing open receivers? It happens to everyone, but this isn’t a realistic problem for Prescott. According to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, he has had the sixth-lowest rate of open receivers across our 25-passer sample since 2016, meaning he has had fewer open targets to hit than Wentz (ninth) or Goff (19th).

 

Criticism No. 6: Prescott only makes safe throws

One of the fun things about quarterback arguments is they can go all kinds of ways. Because he started his career as the quarterback in a run-first argument, Prescott still gets the game manager tag thrown in his face when he doesn’t have a big game. Again, we can go to NFL Next Gen Stats for evidence for or against that idea.

 

Prescott is more aggressive about challenging for first downs than either of his comparables. His average pass has traveled 0.4 yards short of the sticks in the air, which is the eighth-deepest mark in the league. Wentz is just behind him in 11th at 0.5 yards short of the sticks, while Goff is in 17th.

 

 

What about throwing into tight windows? Again, Prescott is above average.

 

In looking strictly at air yards, Prescott is also the most aggressive passer of the bunch.

 

Criticism No. 7: Prescott struggles against great teams

Here’s a place where Prescott has undeniably struggled. As Parolin noted in his piece, Prescott and the Cowboys are just 5-13 against teams that finished the year with 10 or more wins, and the quarterback has been part of the problem.

 

Prescott looks the worst of the bunch here. Wentz was clearly the best of the three against great defenses, posting the best passer rating (90.0) and adjusted yards per attempt (7.0). Prescott and Goff were virtually identical in terms of passer rating (82.3 for Prescott, 81.4 for Goff) and AY/A (6.3 for Dak, 6.4 for Goff).

 

Measured versus their numbers against the lesser defenses, Prescott also dropped off more noticeably than the other two. Wentz was virtually the same against all defenses; his passer rating against the great defenses was 94.2% of what it was against the other defenses. Goff was just behind him at 89.1%, while Prescott was well off the pack at 79.7%. By AY/A, the gap was even larger, with him down at 75.5%. Of the various criticisms of him, this seems like the most meaningful and accurate complaint.

 

Criticism No. 8: Prescott isn’t good enough to win a Super Bowl

Let me finish up with this one. Given all that I’ve written about Prescott’s performance so far, the idea that he lacks the upside to win a Super Bowl just isn’t supported by recent history. Prescott has been more productive than a number of quarterbacks who have won Super Bowls, including late-stage Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco and Nick Foles. I would argue that he’s better than plenty of quarterbacks who have lost in the Super Bowl, with Goff as the most obvious example.

 

Maybe you want to frame it differently and suggest that a quarterback needs a certain upside to win a Super Bowl and that Prescott lacks that upside. That’s not supported by the evidence, and even if it were over the past four years, it’s entirely possible that a good quarterback like Prescott could have everything come together for a great, MVP-caliber season. Matt Ryan and Cam Newton are good examples of this phenomenon, and while neither won a Super Bowl, Ryan came close.

 

The Bottom Line on Prescott

We’re done with Goff and Wentz comparisons. My point in bringing those two up isn’t to say that Prescott is better than either of his classmates, although you can make a case given the facts laid out above. In a world in which Goff and Wentz were awarded lucrative extensions without many complaints, Prescott has proved that he deserves a similar deal. While he’s not Mahomes, the preponderance of evidence suggests he’s a top-10 quarterback and somewhere in the six-to-eight range. The idea that the Cowboys can just replace him with a cheaper option and get similar production is not supported by evidence or history.

 

I think the Cowboys will end up giving in and handing Prescott an extension by July 15, in part because they don’t have to look far to see the alternative. Remember when I mentioned that the only quarterback to be franchise-tagged under similar terms was Cousins? Washington didn’t think Cousins was worth a significant extension, franchised him twice, and then tried to make Cousins look bad by leaking their multiyear offer terms when they were really lowball numbers.

 

Washington got a third-round compensatory pick for Cousins and used it in a trade with the Bills to draft running back Bryce Love and guard Wes Martin. To replace Cousins, it traded a second-round pick to the Chiefs for Alex Smith and gave him a four-year, $94 million extension. The team obviously couldn’t have known Smith was going to suffer a career-threatening leg injury, but even if Smith had stayed healthy, it was trading for a 34-year-old quarterback. Washington was going to need to draft a long-term replacement, and the injury only sped up that process, with the organization using its 2019 first-rounder on Dwayne Haskins.

 

Washington has now committed two premium picks to try to replace Cousins, who had the fourth-best passer rating in football a year ago. It’s unclear whether new coach Ron Rivera & Co. are done addressing the position in the long term. For whatever Cousins seemed to lack when Washington was making its offers, the alternative has turned out to be worse. The Cowboys can’t afford to make the same mistake and set their franchise back in the process.

 

NEW YORK GIANTS

This doesn’t sound good for PK ALDRICK ROSAS – he has extraordinary speeding, a DUI and a hit-and-run all at 8:25 a.m.  Oh, did we mention he was driving with a suspended license. Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com:

New York Giants kicker Aldrick Rosas was arrested and jailed for misdemeanor hit-and-run and driving on a suspended license, according to a California Highway Patrol incident report.

 

Alcohol impairment is believed to be a factor in the crash.

 

Rosas was driving a black Chevrolet SUV at around 8:25 a.m. local time Tuesday morning when a T-bone collision occurred. Witnesses saw Rosas driving erratically over the double yellow lines and at a speed estimated to be 100 mph when he ran a red light and hit a Ford pickup truck.

 

Rosas, 25, attempted to drive away from the scene of the crash before his vehicle became disabled. He exited and fled the scene on foot without shoes, according to the police report.

 

Officers went to Rosas’ home after the scene was cleared. The 2018 Pro Bowl kicker was not there, but was later stopped walking on the side of a road with his hands, legs, and bare feet covered in blood.

 

Rosas was treated for minor injuries at Enloe Medical Center and later booked into Butte County Jail.

 

“We are aware of the situation and have been in contact with Aldrick,” the Giants said in a statement. “We have no further comment at this time.”

 

Rosas is coming off a down season where he made just 12 of 17 field goal attempts (70.6%). He was re-signed as a restricted free agent for $3.3 million this offseason after the Giants used a second-round tender on him.

 

Rosas made 32 of 33 field goals (96.9%) the previous season and was named to the Pro Bowl. The former undrafted Southern Oregon kicker worked his way onto the Giants’ active roster in 2017.

 

This is the second Giants player arrested this offseason. Cornerback DeAndre Baker currently faces eight counts of armed robbery and aggravated assault with a firearm from an incident in Florida last month.

Butte County, California is in the north and includes Chico, the hometown of QB AARON RODGERS.

AFC WEST

LAS VEGAS

TE DARREN WALLER is enthused by the prospects for the Raiders offense in 2020:

The Raiders drafted three offensive skill position players in the first three rounds in April and they signed tight end Jason Witten, running back Devontae Booker and wide receiver Nelson Agholor in free agency, so there’s little question about their desire to improve on that side of the ball.

 

Last year saw the Raiders move the ball well enough to finish 11th in the league in yards, but they were only able to turn those gains into 313 points. That ranked 24th in the league, but tight end Darren Waller thinks the offseason addition mixed with him, quarterback Derek Carr, wide receiver Tyrell Williams and running back Josh Jacobs sets the stage for a big difference on the scoreboard.

 

“If you look at things across the board, starting with the offensive line and the quarterback, with improvement at the receiver positions and the tight ends trying to be consistent, I think our offense has a chance to do a lot of great things and put up a lot of great numbers,” Waller said on SiriusXM NFL Radio, via NBCSportsBayArea.com. “The big thing for us is finishing in the red zone this year. I know that we’re doing everything in our power to improve upon that. I don’t feel like having a top-five offense is out of the picture. We have that much talent. We have guys who are buying in. We have a balanced system. I have high expectations, and I think everyone on the offense would say the same thing.”

 

Waller posted 90 catches for 1,145 yards and three touchdowns last year. The increased talent around him may mean the first two numbers go down, but the Raiders should be better off if the trips to the end zone go up in 2020.

AFC NORTH

 

BALTIMORE

LB MATTHEW JUDON doesn’t believe in better late than never as far as Roger Goodell is concerned.  Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com:

Baltimore Ravens outside linebacker Matthew Judon criticized the timing of NFL commissioner Roger Goodell’s recent support for the Black Lives Matter movement, saying his comments were long overdue.

 

“It’s not when Roger Goodell came out and said black lives matter, now everybody can say it,” Judon said Monday during a video conference with reporters. “I think we should have been questioning why Roger Goodell didn’t say black lives matter when he was born, or when he became commissioner or when he was reelected commissioner. … It’s not cool that Roger Goodell said it. He should’ve been saying it.”

 

On June 5, Goodell said in a video that the NFL erred in how it dealt with NFL player protests of police brutality and systematic racism over the past few years.

 

Judon has been one of the most active Ravens in the community with regard to social injustice. He has spoken to politicians about criminal justice reform and he has met with law enforcement officials.

 

“I’m with all the protests that we have to do and all the progress that we have to make,” Judon said. “I’m with of that, but it’s not because Roger Goodell said, ‘Black lives matter.'”

 

Judon added, “We’re all here for a common goal, and it’s usually to win football games. But right now, it’s bigger than football.”

 

In 2017, Judon was among the Ravens who knelt before Baltimore’s game in London, which was a response to President Donald Trump’s criticism of players who protested during the national anthem.

 

Judon expressed frustration regarding the response to Colin Kaepernick, who knelt during the anthem to protest racial inequality in 2016. Kaepernick hasn’t played in the NFL since.

 

“There shouldn’t have been pushback,” Judon said. “It should have been like, ‘OK, let’s help this man in his cause.’ That was just his way of expressing it.”

 

During his 25-minute conference call with reporters, Judon expressed more concern about social injustice than his contract status. Judon, who was given the franchise tag this offseason, has until the NFL deadline of July 15 to come to a long-term deal. If not, Judon would become the first Ravens player since Terrell Suggs in 2008 to play an entire season under the tag, earning $16.8 million this season.

 

Judon, 27, reached the first Pro Bowl of his four-year career after leading the Ravens with a personal-best 9.5 sacks and recording the fourth-most quarterback hits in the NFL with 33.

– – –

Fresh from his bout with a jet ski, QB LAMAR JACKSON is thrilled to be the Madden cover subject.  Terez Paylor of YahooSports.com:

Lamar Jackson’s life has not changed much since he was named the 2019 NFL MVP in February.

– – –

But come the fall, those who want to get a small piece of Jackson will be able to, provided they have $59.99. Because as the new cover man for the iconic “Madden” video game series, Jackson’s face will be displayed in thousands of stores across America on “Madden 21.”

 

It’s an honor that he does not take lightly.

 

“I shed tears looking at the cover,” Jackson said, his voice quaking ever so slightly. “It’s different knowing like, what you’ve been through, what you faced … and for people to look at you and want you to represent them by putting you on the cover of their game, it’s a dream come true.”

 

Especially as a black, dual-threat quarterback. Jackson’s elite athleticism and elusiveness made him a human highlight reel at the University of Louisville, but neither those traits nor his 69-27 touchdown-to-interception ratio for his college career were enough to keep him from falling to pick No. 32 of the first round in 2018.

 

And that’s why it means the world to Jackson that now, two years later, millions of black kids around the country will be able to see him on the “Madden” cover, play with him in the game and know that playing quarterback in the NFL — in the manner he does, with both his arm and his legs — is an attainable goal for them.

 

“I was one of those kids looking up to Michael Vick, Cam Newton, RGIII, [players] of that nature, for the same reason,” Jackson said. “So it means a lot to me, and I just want to keep heading that way and let them know you can make it out of your situation, your neighborhood, whatever you’re doing.”

AFC EAST

 

BUFFALO

The underlying business of Bills owner Terry Pegula might be under some stress, but Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com reports Pegula says the Bills are financially fine.

Pegula Sports and Entertainment fired and furloughed employees in April in response to a change in economic conditions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, but the Bills staff was not affected by the moves made at the company controlled by team owners Terry and Kim Pegula.

 

A report later that month by Tim Graham of TheAthletic.com noted that energy businesses in the family’s portfolio were also struggling and that some expected further cuts on the sports side as a result of the downturn. The NHL’s Buffalo Sabres did fire General Manager Jason Botterill on Tuesday, but Terry Pegula was adamant that business is going to continue as usual for their NFL team.

 

“There is no financial situation,” Pegula said, via Syracuse.com. “I don’t know where that rumor started. If you look at every oil and gas company, which is our core business outside sports, they’re all — you might use the word — hurting. But we don’t have any debt on our oil and gas business. . . . Talking about the Bills, there’s no financial pressure, negative, on the franchise.”

 

Pegula said he is thinking about the prospect of professional sports going on without fans and acknowledges the negative financial implications that would come with that. He adds that “you gotta find solutions” to those issues and he’ll have plenty of company around the sports world when it comes to that hunt.

 

NEW YORK JETS

The Jets have dumped their longtime trainer John Mellody.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Jets, who had an NFL-high 21 players on injured reserve last season, have replaced their longtime head athletic trainer, Rich Cimini of ESPN reports.

 

The team promoted assistant athletic trainer Dave Zuffelato, who joined the Jets in 2006. Mellody will remain a consultant with the Jets.

 

“I’m not going to comment,” Mellody told Cimini on Tuesday.

 

Mellody, 51, started with the Jets as an assistant in 1996 before taking over as head athletic trainer in 2006. He worked for eight head coaches.

 

The Jets hired Robert Daplyn, formerly of West Point, to fill Zuffelato’s former role as assistant athletic trainer.

 

THIS AND THAT

 

TOP 10 QUARTERBACKS NOW

Sean Wagner-McGough of CBSSports.com has his list of the NFL’s top 10 QBs for 2021.  He does it countdown style, but don’t get too attached to AARON RODGERS:

The landscape of quarterbacks in the NFL has shifted seismically in the past four years alone. With the arrival of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, and Carson Wentz, the new have already begun the process of supplanting the old. No longer is Tom Brady the best quarterback in football. No longer is Aaron Rodgers the most physically gifted quarterback in the NFL. No longer is Matt Ryan a top-10 quarterback.

 

The 2020 NFL season is still a few months away (hopefully), but that doesn’t mean it’s too early to rank the top-10 quarterbacks for the upcoming season. Below, you’ll find exactly that.

 

To no one’s surprise, Mahomes is atop the rankings. Nobody should be surprised by the quarterback positioned directly behind Mahomes considering he — Lamar Jackson — is the reigning MVP and all (don’t @ me about his playoff record). It also shouldn’t come as a surprise to see Russell Wilson in the third position.

 

But what’s most notable about the rankings is the absence of a few older quarterbacks who are on Hall of Fame trajectories. I’m talking mostly about Aaron Rodgers, an all-time great quarterback who I would — if I had the ability to do so — vote into Canton during his first year of eligibility. I’ve long said that Rodgers is the most talented quarterback I’ve ever seen play with my own two eyes, which remained true right up until the moment Mahomes took over for Alex Smith in Kansas City. Rodgers is one of the greatest quarterbacks I’ll ever get to watch. But I left him off the list because, as stated above, we’re looking ahead to the 2020 season and, well, Rodgers has already started his decline. In 2019, Rodgers threw for 4,002 yards, 26 touchdowns, and only four interceptions, but he averaged only 7.0 yards per attempt, and ranked 13th in DVOA, which measures value per play, and 20th in total QBR. The truth of the matter is, Rodgers hasn’t been operating at his peak for a few seasons now. We haven’t seen him at his best since 2016. Add in the Packers’ dreadful offseason, when they refused to give him the reinforcements he needs, and well, that’s how you wind up with a top-10 quarterback list without Rodgers. I still think he’s a good quarterback, just not the great quarterback he once was.

 

Other quarterbacks, besides Rodgers, who just missed the cut include: Kirk Cousins (arguably the second-best quarterback in the NFC North), Matt Ryan (a future Hall of Famer who is slowly declining), Kyler Murray (who has a chance to be a top-10 quarterback after the Cardinals’ awesome offseason, but needs to take a big step forward in Year 2 to do so), and Jimmy Garoppolo (which says more about Kyle Shanahan).

 

Without further delay, our list of the top-10 quarterbacks for the 2020 season.

 

10. Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger

We’ve all seen the beard. We’ve all heard about his offseason regimen. We all know he’s coming off major elbow surgery. We’re all aware that he’s 38 years old. These are all red flags. They’re all reasons for concern.

 

But the last time we got a meaningful glimpse of Big Ben back during the 2018 season, he was still the Big Ben we’ve all come to know over the past 15 years. Two seasons ago, Roethlisberger completed 67 percent of his passes for 5,129 yards (7.6 yards per attempt), 34 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and a 96.5 passer rating. He ranked eighth in DVOA and fourth in total QBR.

 

Assuming he makes it through the 2020 season unscathed, it’ll be his first full season in a while without Antonio Brown. Despite Brown’s absence, Big Ben is still well-equipped to be a top-10 quarterback again in 2020. JuJu Smith-Schuster, who even after his disappointing 2019 season with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, is averaging 965 yards and 5.7 touchdowns per season, is still there. So is Diontae Johnson, who broke out with 59 catches, 680 yards, and five touchdowns last year, and James Washington, who racked up a career-high 735 yards last season. Meanwhile, the team did well to add Eric Ebron in free agency. Even without Brown, Big Ben will still be throwing to a talented collection of pass catchers. Perhaps most importantly, he’ll be throwing behind a dependable offensive line.

 

All of this is set up for Big Ben to reclaim his place in the NFL as a top-10 quarterback. But concerns still persist — namely, his elbow and age — which is why he’s ranked 10th on a list of 10.

 

9. Buccaneers’ Tom Brady

Like with Big Ben, there are plenty of reasons to be concerned with Brady’s outlook in 2020. For one, he’ll be 43 when the new season kicks off. Two, he’s already shown signs of declining after a 2019 season that saw him throw for 4,057 yards (his lowest total since his 2016 Deflategate suspension season), 24 touchdowns (his lowest total since his 2008 torn ACL season), eight interceptions, and an 88.0 passer rating (his lowest rating since 2013). By both DVOA and total QBR, he graded out as an average quarterback, ranking 17th.

 

But Brady snuck his way onto the list because he’s no longer in New England on an offense devoid of playmakers. In Tampa Bay, he gets to work with Bruce Arians while throwing to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard, and Cameron Brate, arguably the deepest and best receiving group of Brady’s entire career. That’s why I’m projecting a bounce-back season for Brady. Unlike Rodgers, Brady is now getting the help he needs in the later stages of his career.

 

8. Eagles’ Carson Wentz

Wentz can certainly relate to Brady’s plight in 2019. Like Brady, Wentz didn’t get much help. At one point, after the Eagles’ receiving corps was decimated by injury, Wentz was throwing to receivers like Greg Ward and Mack Hollins. The team’s leading wide receiver, Alshon Jeffery, missed six full games and finished with 490 yards. The team’s top-two leading pass catchers were tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. The good news is that despite those unfortunate circumstances, Wentz still managed to complete 63.9 percent of his passes for 4,039 yards (an alarmingly low 6.7 yards per attempt), 27 touchdowns, seven picks, and a 93.1 passer rating. He finished the season 20th in DVOA, but 11th in total QBR.

 

So yes, Wentz needs to elevate his level of play if he’s going to be the eighth-best quarterback in 2020. Luckily, the Eagles had the draft we all thought the Packers would have. Even though they drafted a quarterback in Jalen Hurts, they only did so after giving Wentz some immediate relief in the form of wide receiver Jalen Reagor. Furthermore, they added more speed to their pass-catching group by trading for Marquise Goodwin. Not to mention, both productive tight ends are still around.

 

If the Eagles can stay healthy at the skill positions, Wentz will have a tremendous chance to become a top-10 quarterback in 2020.

 

7. Lions’ Matthew Stafford

It continues to fly under the radar that Stafford was on pace to throw for 4,998 yards, 38 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in 2019 before an injury ended his season after eight games. At the time of his injury, Stafford ranked second in touchdown passes, fourth in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, third in DYAR, fifth in DVOA, and seventh in total QBR. Freed from the constraints of the Jim Bob Cooter offensive system that focused more on short passes and playing in a Darrell Bevell system that allowed him to use his arm talent to throw downfield, Stafford thrived.

 

As I wrote at the time:

 

What’s changed is that the Lions replaced Jim Bob Cooter with Darrell Bevell at offensive coordinator and Bevell has allowed Stafford to use his arm talent to throw the ball downfield with frequency. Cooter tried to limit the mistakes that Stafford has a habit of making by forcing him to get the ball out quickly to underneath receivers — at the beginning, it actually seemed like a good idea. In 2016, Stafford averaged 8 air yards per attempt, which was the league’s eighth-lowest average. In 2017, he also averaged 8 air yards per attempt. In 2018, he averaged 7 air yards per attempt, which was the league’s sixth-lowest average. This year, under Bevell, Stafford is averaging 10.7 air yards per attempt. Only Jameis Winston ranks ahead of him. As a result, he’s averaging 8.6 yards per attempt after averaging 7.1 yards per attempt during the first decade of his career. It turns out, letting Stafford use his God-given arm strength is actually a good idea.

 

With Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones still around, and T.J. Hockenson entering Year 2, Stafford is poised to pick up where he left off. Assuming he can stay healthy this time around, Stafford has a legitimate chance to put together the best season of his career. He’s never been better equipped to do so.

 

That’s why he’s ranked seventh on a list that doesn’t include Aaron Rodgers. I think he’s going to be the best quarterback in the NFC North in 2020.

 

6. Texans’ Deshaun Watson

It doesn’t help matters that Watson is saddled with Bill O’Brien as his general manager, who jettisoned DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for an overpaid and unproductive running back. But if there’s one thing Watson has continually proven since entering the NFL in 2017, it’s that he’s capable of overcoming less than ideal circumstances.

 

As a rookie, playing behind a bad offensive line, he led the Texans to a 3-3 record as a starting quarterback; they went 1-9 without him. In his first full season as a starting quarterback, he operated behind the league’s worst offensive line, getting sacked 62 times, but also completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 4,165 yards (8.2 YPA), 26 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a 103.1 passer rating — not to mention his 551 yards and five scores as a runner. He did it again last year in a 15-game season with a 67.3 completion percentage, 3,852 passing yards, 26 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions, a 98.0 passer rating, 413 rushing yards, and seven touchdown runs.

 

So, even though he’ll be without Hopkins, I have faith he’ll be able to once again perform like a top-10 player at his position group. There’s no doubt he’ll miss Hopkins, but a receiving group composed of Kenny Stills, Will Fuller, Randall Cobb, and Brandin Cooks can still be effective — particularly downfield. Above all else, I trust Watson to elevate the team around him. It’s just what he always does.

 

5. Cowboys’ Dak Prescott

The Cowboys’ refusal to give Dak Prescott the contract he wants and deserves continues to make no sense. They have a 26-year-old franchise quarterback they were lucky enough to draft in the fourth round four years ago and for some dumb reason, they haven’t given him a long-term contract. And let’s be clear: Dak deserves it.

 

In four seasons, Prescott is completing 65.8 percent of his passes, and averaging 3,944.5 passing yards per season, 7.6 yards per attempt, and 24.3 touchdown passes and nine interceptions per season. He’s accumulated a 97.0 passer rating. He’s also averaging 305.3 rushing yards and 5.3 rushing touchdowns per season. Since 2016, he ranks sixth in passing yards, tied for ninth in touchdown passes, and tied (with Russell Wilson) for second in quarterback wins (only Brady has more). He’s coming off a season that saw him finish sixth in DVOA and fourth in total QBR.

 

So, it’s not farfetched to think Prescott will play like a top-10 quarterback in 2020. He’s mostly been playing at that level over the past four seasons. Now, in addition to Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, he gets to throw to someone like CeeDee Lamb. I think there’s a good chance Prescott outplays his ranking on this list. He’s set up to thrive, which is why the Cowboys should sign him before the season begins and he drives up his asking price once again — just like how they should’ve signed before last season, but I digress.

 

4. Saints’ Drew Brees

For as much attention as Brady’s longevity has gotten, Brees is aging just as well. In his age-40 season, he completed a league-high 74.3 percent of his passes, averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, threw a touchdown on a career-high 7.1 percent of his passes and an interception on only 1.1 percent of his passes, and generated a passer rating of 116.3, the best of his career. If not for a thumb injury that cost him five starts, he would’ve been in the MVP discussion (again).

 

Returning for his 15th season in New Orleans, Brees is set up to pick up where he left off. The Saints already had one of the league’s best offenses and then they went out and signed Emmanuel Sanders to bolster a receiving group led by the great Michael Thomas. The offensive line — already one of the league’s best — added first-round pick Cesar Ruiz to the interior. Unless Brees finally feels the affects of aging, he should remain one of the league’s best quarterbacks (and the best quarterback in the NFC South even after Brady’s arrival).

 

3. Seahawks’ Russell Wilson

No quarterback continually does more with less than Wilson. If he had the benefit of playing for, say, Andy Reid in Kansas City, he’d probably find himself atop this list. Instead, he remains in Seattle with Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer, who seem hellbent on #EstablishingTheRun, much to Wilson’s detriment. That said, Wilson continually makes it work. At this point in his career, he’s one of the three best quarterbacks (and the best deep-ball thrower) in football.

 

Let’s run through the numbers. Since he entered the league back in 2012, he’s never missed a game, he’s won 86 games (only Brady has won more in that span), and he’s thrown for the seventh-most yards and the fifth-most touchdowns. Out of all quarterbacks since 2012, only Cam Newton has rushed for more yards. Since 2017, he’s averaging 3,847 passing yards, 33.3 touchdown passes, and 7.7 interceptions per season. Last year, he completed 66.1 percent of his passes for 4,110 yards (8.0 YPA), 31 touchdowns, only five interceptions, and a 106.3 passer rating. If not for Lamar Jackson’s historically great season, he would’ve won MVP. There’s a reason the Seahawks went 11-5 despite outscoring their opposition by only seven points over the course of the season. Wilson elevated them.

 

The scary thing is, Wilson is better equipped to do even more damage in 2020 than he did in 2019. D.K. Metcalf, after making a strong impression with 900 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie, should be improved in Year 2. Tyler Lockett should be healthy. Newcomer Phillip Dorsett is actually an intriguing fit. Greg Olsen was a nice upside signing.

 

But above all else, it comes down to Wilson’s consistency. He’s almost always one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Don’t expect that to change out of nowhere.

 

2. Ravens’ Lamar Jackson

What a first full season as a starting quarterback it was for Jackson, who emerged with a well-deserved MVP trophy after leading the Ravens to the top seed in the AFC. There’s no doubt that Jackson, unlike Wilson, was set up to thrive with an innovative coaching staff that catered the offense to his unique skillset and a top-five defense, but there’s also no doubt that the vast majority of the Ravens’ success came down to Jackson. In 15 games, he went 13-2 while completing 66.1 percent of his passes, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, leading the league in touchdown passes with 36 despite attempting only 401 passes (26th), throwing six interceptions, and posting a 113.3 passer rating. And oh yeah, he broke the single-season rushing record for a quarterback with 1,206 yards (and seven scores). There’s just not another quarterback like him in the NFL right now — maybe ever.

 

While some have posited that Jackson could struggle next season now that teams have film on the Ravens’ offense, I lean the other way. I think he might still improve as a passer. This was Jackson’s first full season as an NFL starting quarterback in a new offense with young targets around him. The receivers, like Hollywood Brown and Miles Boykin, should improve in Year 2. Jackson himself should grow more comfortable in the offense. And offensive coordinator Greg Roman should continue to innovate the offense.

 

Don’t let one bad playoff game lull you into thinking the Ravens are a gimmick. Jackson is poised to terrorize the NFL for the next decade.

 

1. Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes

This shouldn’t come as a surprise. It shouldn’t cause any controversy. We should all agree by now that Mahomes is far and away the best player in football regardless of position, and he just happens to play the most important position in all of sports.

 

Since becoming the team’s full-time starter at the beginning of the 2018 season, he is averaging 4,564 yards, 38 touchdowns, and only 8.5 interceptions per season — even though he’s missed nearly three games in that span. He won MVP in his first season as a starter by becoming the second quarterback in NFL history to throw for 5,000-plus yards and 50-plus touchdowns in a single season. He followed that up by leading the Chiefs to a championship in 2019, erasing a 24-point deficit in the span of a single quarter to kick off the team’s playoff run with a 20-point win over the Texans and eventually erasing a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl against an elite defense. Sure, his numbers in the regular season regressed after his record-setting 2018 season, but keep in mind that from 2018 to 2019, he cut his interception rate in half (from 2.1 percent to 1.0 percent). Including the playoffs, Mahomes now owns a higher winning percentage than Tom Brady.

 

If anyone has a chance to unseat Brady as the greatest quarterback of all time, it’s Mahomes. There’s no reason to think he’s set to decline. If anything, like Jackson, I think he’s going to keep getting better.