WASHINGTON

The Harris ownership team has shuffled some staff at the Commanders, including the return of franchise legend Doug Williams to a role that sounds more active and analytics VP Eugene Shen is out after eight months. Ben Standig of the New York Times:

The Adam Peters organizational makeover project continues.

The Washington Commanders announced many front-office changes Tuesday, including the departure of senior vice president of football strategy Eugene Shen after only eight months, a new title for Doug Williams and the official hiring of various scouting department additions. Several moves coincide with earlier hires by the new general manager.

Recent rumors about further front-office moves centered on the future of the analytics group under Peters. Managing partner Josh Harris hired Shen midway through the 2023 season to bolster the analytics department, which was historically understaffed under previous ownership. The rookie NFL owner also sought fresh perspectives around the league’s trade deadline and with significant changes expected in the front office and coaching staff at season’s end. Washington traded defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young for future draft picks before the deadline.

Shen’s resume, which includes stints with the Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars, enticed Harris. “Anytime I see things that might give us an edge, we try to take advantage of them,” Harris said at March’s NFL owners’ meeting. “The Eugene hire was exactly that.”

From a long-term perspective, adding a high-ranking, full-time executive seemed curious before determining the next general manager.

Harris hired former NFL general manager Rick Spielman days after Washington’s 4-13 campaign concluded and after relieving head coach/football operations lead Ron Rivera. However, Spielman entered as a short-time consultant to help Harris navigate a general manager search and contribute to a subsequent head coach search.

Peters, a first-time GM, began retooling the executive leadership in January and the scouting departments following the draft, while the analytics group remained intact.

Then came the hiring of Brandon Sosna as senior vice president of football operations. The role meant Sosna, 31, would handle contract negotiations and salary-cap management. The official announcement also stated that the former Detroit Lions and USC staffer, now reporting to Peters, would oversee several football operation departments, including analytics, and “play a major role in strategy around roster construction.” That raised further questions about Shen’s role and influence in the new regime as a pre-Peters signing.

The Commanders stated on Tuesday: “After successfully supporting the transition to new ownership last season, Eugene Shen will be transitioning out of the Washington Commanders’ organization.” The statement included Shen is “in discussions to support” Harris’ other sports enterprises.

Other analytic department changes include Doug Drewry’s promotion to manager of football research and development and the hiring of Connor Nickol and Travis Ho as coaching analysts.

The previous senior vice president of football operations, Rob Rogers, remains with the organization as vice president of football operations. Sosna’s arrival cast doubt about the Rivera holdover’s future in the organization despite his significant role in Washington’s 20-plus free-agent signings. Now, Rogers’ presence allows Sosna flexibility in managing his many responsibilities. Martin Mayhew and Marty Hurney, Washington’s top two personnel executives with Rivera, were previously re-assigned. Mayhew supported Peters in free agency and the draft as a senior personnel executive and adviser to the GM.

Williams’ title change — senior adviser to the GM — puts one of the franchise’s Super Bowl heroes back in the front office. Once a Washington senior vice president of player personnel, Williams was re-assigned to the organization’s business side as an adviser to team president Jason Wright. The Super Bowl XXII MVP is now listed as part of the Commanders’ executive management group with Peters, assistant general manager Lance Newmark, Sosna and Mayhew.

The new director of pro scouting, Chris White, spent the previous two seasons as the Chicago Bears’ assistant director of pro scouting. Former Ravens personnel executive David Blackburn was previously announced as director of pro personnel.

Scouts Dwaune Jones (national), Jack Quagliarello (pro), Dustin Regan (college) and senior director of team support and advancement Dylan Thompson were also officially announced. Sean DeBarbieri, Washington’s communications lead of football, was promoted to vice president of football communications.

JACKSONVILLE

Their celebrating the deal in Jacksonville that will keep the Jaguars around with a newish stadium.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Jacksonville City Council approved a deal with the Jaguars on a $1.4 billion renovation of EverBank Stadium. The deal needed a majority vote of approval from the 19-member council, and it passed 14-1 with two abstentions.

“The belief and determination of Delores and Wayne Weaver to make the Jacksonville Jaguars a reality more than 30 years ago was reaffirmed today by the leadership of Mayor Donna Deegan, her team and the Jacksonville City Council,” owner Shad Khan said in a statement. “The message then, and now, should be clear: Never doubt Jacksonville!”

The “stadium of the future” will keep the team in Jacksonville for at least 30 more years.

NFL owners are expected to rubberstamp the agreement in October, with construction scheduled to begin after the 2025 season.

The city will pay $775 million in stadium renovations and $56 million in an altered community benefits agreement, Hanna Holthaus of the Florida Times-Union.

“This day has been a long time coming,” Mayor Deegan said in a statement. “I am truly grateful for the partnership with the Jaguars throughout the negotiation process, and to the city council for passing this historic deal. Together, we are turning renderings into reality for the betterment of Jacksonville.”

The Jaguars will play in front of a reduced capacity in 2026 while renovations are ongoing. They are expected to host home games in Gainesville or Orlando in 2027.

MIAMI

The Dolphins like QB TUA TAGOVIALOA, but not as much as the Jaguars like TREVOR LAWRENCE.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

The market is the market. And the Dolphins might not be ready to give quarterback Tua Tagovailoa a market deal.

Earlier today, Omar Kelly of the Miami Herald posted a clip from ESPN’s Jeff Darlington that confirms many of the things we’ve been hearing about the negotiations between Miami and their starting quarterback.

Tua wants a market-level deal. The Dolphins have yet to offer one. They possibly won’t.

The fact that a deal has yet to be done makes that obvious. What is far from obvious is whether Miami will get there before training camp opens.

As explained last week on #PFTPM and in this post, the Dolphins possibly plan to make Tua a final pre-camp offer that will be significantly more valuable than the remainder of his current contract (one year, $23.1 million) but also significantly less valuable than market value, as established by recent contracts given to Lions quarterback Jared Goff ($53 million per year in new money) and Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence ($55 million). If that happens, Tua will have to decide whether to take the offer or keep pushing for more before the season starts.

The question then becomes whether the Dolphins will sufficiently improve the offer before Week 1. And the reality becomes that, once Tua reports for camp, he really doesn’t have the leverage to make it happen. Even if he holds in and doesn’t practice as talks continue, at some point the negotiations end and the season begins. (That’s what happened two years ago with the Bears and linebacker Roquan Smith, who eventually did not get a long-term deal before playing for the Bears until being traded to the Ravens at the deadline.)

Tua’s most effective play would be to not show up at all. Will he do that? That possibly hinges on Miami’s final pre-camp offer — and on his reaction to it.

As the current divide goes, it could be as simple as the first number in Miami’s offer being a “4″ and the first number in Tua’s request being a “5″. As explained in the item laying out the various candidates to be the first to $60 million per year, there are ways to manipulate the package to pump up the new-money average, like the Dolphins did two years ago with receiver Tyreek Hill.

Will it be enough for Tua to take a deal that looks better than it really is? A market-level long-term deal in let’s-see-what-he-does-this-year-and-maybe-next-year clothing will generate headlines indicating that Tua got what he wanted. The details could paint a starkly different picture.

Remember when the Raiders re-signed Derek Carr and it was widely trumpeted as a $40 million per year deal? The contract was specifically designed to give Las Vegas an escape hatch after one season. And they took advantage of it.

In the end, will it be enough for Tua to get a deal that seems better than it is, and that protects Miami in the event he doesn’t progress, or potentially regresses?

That could be the key to getting a deal done before training camp opens. It also could be the key to avoiding something that rarely happens. An established, veteran quarterback refusing to show up to training camp until he gets what he wants.

THIS AND THAT

THE ROSTERS 1 TO 32

ESPN.com has ranked the current NFL rosters 1 (San Francisco) to 32 (Giants).  Edited below:

1. San Francisco 49ers

Biggest strength: Offensive skill positions. RB Christian McCaffrey (led the NFL with 2,023 total yards last season), Brandon Aiyuk (1,342 receiving yards ranked seventh among WRs in 2023), Deebo Samuel (eighth among WRs with 3,751 total yards over the past three seasons) and George Kittle (TE-high 1,020 yards in 2023) are all back for 2024. As if that weren’t enough firepower, the 49ers also spent a first-round pick on WR Ricky Pearsall, who serves as short-term competition for underrated Jauan Jennings and as a long-term replacement for Samuel or Aiyuk. QB Brock Purdy is sitting pretty. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Offensive line. The 49ers are loaded, so we need to get picky by looking at the line situation next to superstar LT Trent Williams. The good news is there’s a ton of continuity. Matt Pryor (42 snaps) was the only lineman who played a snap for the Niners last season and is no longer on the roster. However, of the returning starters (LG Aaron Banks, C Jake Brendel, RGs Jon Feliciano/Spencer Burford and RT Colton McKivitz), only Feliciano showed well in Pro Football Focus grade and pass block win rate in 2023. Coach Kyle Shanahan will need to continue to scheme around this group. — Clay

X factor for 2024: The defensive line. For as star-studded as it was last season, the 49ers’ pass rush seems to be less than the sum of its parts. San Francisco has done some shuffling — out are Chase Young, Arik Armstead and Clelin Ferrell and in are Leonard Floyd, Maliek Collins and Yetur Gross-Matos — but the elite upside remains. Nick Bosa is a superstar, and two years ago both Javon Hargrave and Collins were top three in pass rush win rate among defensive tackles. — Walder

Nonstarter to know: Receiver Jauan Jennings. Yes, the 49ers have added Pearsall, and he’ll probably take Jennings’ position in the starting lineup. But Jennings will still be important to what San Francisco does on offense. He was a surprising 15th last season in the ESPN receiver tracking metrics and is well-known as one of the top run-blocking wide receivers in the NFL. — Schatz

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Biggest strength: Quarterback. This is the easiest pick I’ll make, so I’ll just update what I wrote here last year: Two-time league MVP Patrick Mahomes has already won the Super Bowl and the Super Bowl MVP three times each. He achieved both of those last season — despite a substantial drop-off in scoring (29.2 PPG in 2022 to 21.8 in 2023) — further cementing himself as the league’s best player. Mahomes is 28 years old, and his dominant reign is far from over. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Offensive tackle. Kansas City has done a lot right in recent years, but the four-year, $80 million deal handed to RT Jawaan Taylor last offseason remains a major head-scratcher. Taylor struggled again in 2023, posting poor marks in run block win rate while ranking top 10 among tackles in pressures, hits and hurries allowed. An even larger concern is left tackle, with Donovan Smith out and the likes of Wanya Morris (a 2023 third-rounder who played 324 snaps), Lucas Niang (67 snaps over the past two seasons) and rookie Kingsley Suamataia competing for the job. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Receivers Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy. The Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII with a major weakness at wide receiver, but don’t forget that this team struggled on offense for most of last season. Kansas City needed reinforcements at the position, and Brown and Worthy are it. Whether they can deliver remains to be seen; Brown is coming off a career-low season in terms of yards per route run and ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics, and Worthy is a rookie. Especially with Rashee Rice’s availability in question, whether Brown can rebound and Worthy can hit the ground running will determine which kind of Chiefs offense we get in 2024. — Walder

3. Baltimore Ravens

Biggest strength: Safety. I could’ve easily gone with quarterback or tight end here, but safety gets the nod after Kyle Hamilton emerged as a superstar last season. The 2022 first-round pick was the only player in the league to reach 80 tackles, 4 INTs and 3.0 sacks (one of only seven to do it over the past decade), which landed him first-team All-Pro honors. He’s joined in the defensive backfield by Marcus Williams, who sits eighth among safeties in INTs (20) and seventh in passes defended (54) since entering the league in 2017. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Guard. John Simpson and Kevin Zeitler departed during the offseason after handling 93.4% of Baltimore’s guard snaps in 2023. The team did very little to replace the duo, with the likes of 2023 backup Ben Cleveland, journeyman newcomer Josh Jones and 2023-24 late-round draft picks Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu and Andrew Vorhees the top candidates to start. This is arguably the league’s shakiest guard situation. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Defensive coordinator Zach Orr. He has big shoes to fill after Mike Macdonald left to become the Seattle head coach. Macdonald got the most out of the Baltimore defense, a group that allowed minus-0.1 EPA per play last season, the second-best mark of any team despite lacking an elite pass-rusher and getting only 10 games from Marlon Humphrey. Defense was Baltimore’s better unit last year — will it be again? — Walder

4. New York Jets

Biggest strength: Cornerback. New York has the league’s top CB trio. Sauce Gardner is already arguably the league’s best corner, having been a first-team All-Pro in each of his first two seasons. Perimeter running mate D.J. Reed (fourth among CBs in tackles since 2021) is one of the league’s most underrated defensive backs, and former fifth-round flier Michael Carter has developed into one of the league’s top slot corners. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Safety. The Jets are pretty stacked, but safety is one area with question marks. Jordan Whitehead (the only Jets defender who departed after playing 600-plus snaps last season) is out and Chuck Clark is in at safety. Clark (ACL) missed all of 2023, but he was productive before that, totaling 274 tackles (ninth most among safeties) with Baltimore from 2020 to 2022. He’ll team up with returning starters Tony Adams and Ashtyn Davis. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Left tackle Tyron Smith. OK, the real answer is Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles. But after that, a lot hinges on Smith. This team is in better shape to contend today than it was a year ago because of the additions at tackle (Smith, Morgan Moses and Olu Fashanu), but it also is one injury to an injury-prone player away from the offensive line becoming a question mark again. — Walder

5. Detroit Lions

Biggest strength: Offensive line. Detroit has an elite line once again. Four of five starters return from 2023, including star tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell, center Frank Ragnow, and versatile guard Graham Glasgow. The only offseason departure was Jonah Jackson, and Detroit upgraded at that guard spot by signing Kevin Zeitler. All five projected starters played 1,000-plus snaps and had good-to-great PFF grades in 2023. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Safety. I’m getting picky here because this is a really good, balanced roster. In fact, safety could prove a strength depending on how Brian Branch is deployed. The versatile Branch was Detroit’s primary slot corner last season (72% of his snaps were at CB) and seems likely to sustain that role in 2024. That would position Kerby Joseph and Ifeatu Melifonwu as the team’s top safeties (no other safeties on the roster played a snap in 2023). — Clay

X factor for 2024: Cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Terrion Arnold. Detroit invested in its weakness from last season (especially after it released Cameron Sutton) by trading for Davis and trading up in the 2024 NFL draft for Arnold, but that isn’t a guarantee for success. Davis is coming off a rough season in which he allowed 1.9 yards per coverage snap, the third most by any outside corner with at least 300 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

Nonstarter to know: Cornerback Amik Robertson. Robertson had strange charting stats last season in Las Vegas. He was ninth in success rate but 83rd among qualifying cornerbacks in yards allowed per pass. He didn’t allow a lot, but when he got beat, it was very, very bad. And the previous season was similar. If injuries force Robertson into Detroit’s starting lineup, he has to avoid giving up those huge plays. — Schatz

6. Dallas Cowboys

Biggest strength: Edge rusher. One of the league’s top defenders, Micah Parsons has led the position in pass rush win rate each of the past three seasons. In fact, since Parsons’ arrival in 2021, Dallas sits first in pass rush wins (809) and fifth in sacks (3.0 behind first). DeMarcus Lawrence is now 32 years old but hasn’t lost a step — he posted one of the top tackle rates and pass rush win rates among edge rushers last season. Sam Williams returns as solid depth, and the team added Marshawn Kneeland in the second round of April’s draft. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Running back. This wasn’t a tough choice for a pretty good Dallas roster that very clearly decided to deprioritize running back this season. Out is Tony Pollard and in is soon-to-be 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott as the lead back. Elliott is a franchise legend, but he’s no more than the football equivalent of an innings-eater at this point in his career. That was further evidenced last year in New England, when he posted his fourth straight season with below-average yards per carry and yards after the catch marks. Additionally, there’s not much to get excited about behind Elliott (Rico Dowdle, 179-pound Deuce Vaughn and Royce Freeman). — Clay

X factor for 2024: Rookie offensive linemen Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe. Assuming they start, they’ll play a critical role in protecting QB Dak Prescott. And it’s a bit of a scary proposition for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. Most rookie offensive linemen — even first-round picks — are below average in Year 1. Dallas needs its picks to overcome the odds. — Walder

7. Cincinnati Bengals

Biggest strength: Wide receiver. Not many teams can match Cincinnati’s elite Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins duo. Chase sits seventh in the league in receiving yards (3,717) and third in TD catches (29) since he was drafted in 2021. Higgins has battled injuries, but before a down year in 2023, he had 900-plus yards in three straight seasons to begin his pro career. Longtime slot man Tyler Boyd departed, but the team has some solid depth options in Jermaine Burton, Andrei Iosivas and Trenton Irwin. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Running back. The Joe Mixon era is over, and the Bengals’ succession plan was to sign journeyman Zack Moss as their lead back. Moss — a 2020 third-round pick — has certainly flashed as a runner, with 4.4 yards per carry over his career, but he has never handled a full workload for an entire season (career-high 183 carries) and has yet to handle a big load in the passing game (career-high 37 targets). Second-year back Chase Brown also flashed last season, although the sample was very small (58 touches). There’s potential here, but both backs are unproven commodities in the roles they’re about to play. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Cornerbacks Cam Taylor-Britt and DJ Turner II. They allowed 2.0 and 1.7 yards per coverage snap last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, the second and eighth most, respectively, among outside CBs with at least 300 coverage snaps. With Chidobe Awuzie gone in free agency, these two young DBs will have to step up. — Walder

8. Houston Texans

Biggest strength: Wide receiver. Houston was already in good shape at wide receiver with the returning duo of Nico Collins and Tank Dell, so adding star Stefon Diggs to the mix cements this as one of the best WR rooms in the NFL. Collins posted an 80-1,297-8 receiving line during a breakout 2023, while Dell — before suffering a season-ending leg injury in Week 13 — had a four-game stretch in which he led the league in TD receptions (five) and was third in receiving yards (369). Diggs is now 30 years old but hasn’t lost much, having finished top-seven among WRs in targets, receptions and TDs in Buffalo last season. Noah Brown leads a loaded bench, as well. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Interior defensive line. Offensive line was a strong candidate here, but DT is arguably a larger concern. Journeyman newcomer Foley Fatukasi tops the depth chart after struggling in Jacksonville, and he’ll be joined by an underwhelming group of veterans that includes Kurt Hinish, Khalil Davis, Tim Settle and Mario Edwards Jr. Versatile Denico Autry will factor in, although he’s entering his age-34 season and has primarily aligned at the edge. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and early-down pass rates. In 2023, the Texans ranked 26th in early-down pass rate at 52% when the game was in question (with win probability 15-85%). That’s the kind of thing teams with bad quarterbacks do, but the Texans have a star in C.J. Stroud (and elite targets, too). Maybe that was Slowik being protective of his rookie, but in 2024, one determination of Houston’s offense will be how much Slowik presses the advantage he has in the passing game — and lets Stroud throw it around on early downs. — Walder

9. Buffalo Bills

Biggest strength: Quarterback. Josh Allen has finished no lower than sixth in QBR each of the past four seasons (third or better in three of those seasons, including 2023). He also finished top 10 in dropbacks, attempts, completions, passing yards, passing TDs, carries, rushing yards and rushing TDs during all four of those campaigns. The departure of WR Stefon Diggs will place more on Allen’s shoulders, but the 28-year-old has shown he can carry the load. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Wide receiver. I wrote about the Bills’ WR depth concerns in this section last year, and the team has since said goodbye to starters Diggs and Gabe Davis. Buffalo has potential reinforcements in place, but the group has plenty to prove. That list starts with second-round pick Keon Coleman, who may need time to develop considering his age (he turned 21 in May). Veteran Curtis Samuel has settled in as a short-range No. 3 receiver in recent years, whereas third-year Khalil Shakir is an interesting wild card/breakout candidate after a strong finish to 2023. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins and Chase Claypool are among those also battling for work. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Receiver Keon Coleman. He is so specifically important because of all the reasons that Mike listed in the previous section. It would be incredibly hard for the Bills to find offensive success without one of these receivers — most likely Coleman or Shakir — breaking out. If not, Buffalo will have a hard ceiling. — Walder

10. Philadelphia Eagles

Biggest strength: Offensive tackle. The Eagles have arguably the league’s best tackle duo, with Jordan Mailata manning the left side and Lane Johnson on the right side. Mailata ranked among the top tackles in pass block win rate and run block win rate in 2023. Johnson is now 34 years old, but he was his usual elite self in 2023, which included the best run block win rate among starting tackles. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Off-ball linebacker. This is simply not a priority position for general manager Howie Roseman. A year after struggling to find players to hold down the fort, the Eagles’ offseason investments included Devin White, journeyman Oren Burks and a fifth-round flier on Jeremiah Trotter Jr. A former first-round pick, White played a ton of snaps in five seasons with Tampa Bay but struggled badly against the run. The team will hope to get the most out of White and a healthy season from 2022 third-rounder Nakobe Dean would also provide a boost. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Cornerbacks Darius Slay Jr. and James Bradberry IV. The Eagles invested in their secondary this offseason to make up for Slay and Bradberry coming off down seasons in 2023. But can you imagine if the two veteran corners bounced back? It’s not out of the question: Cornerback play is quite variant from year to year, and both players have been high-end performers in the past. They have the potential to move this roster from good to great. — Walder

11. Miami Dolphins

Biggest strength: Secondary. Despite saying goodbye to DeShon Elliott and Xavien Howard (among others) during the offseason, the Dolphins remain loaded on the back end. Superstar Jalen Ramsey returns, and the team replaced Howard with a potential upgrade in Kendall Fuller. Slot CB Kader Kohou has proved a gem UDFA find. Jevon Holland is a star at safety, and his new running mates will be Jordan Poyer (the only player in the league with at least 650 tackles, 20 INTs and 10 sacks over the past seven seasons) and standout veteran Marcus Maye. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Guard. Robert Hunt (Miami’s best guard last season) departed during the offseason, and Miami did not make a notable addition to replace him. Isaiah Wynn, Lester Cotton, Robert Jones and Liam Eichenberg return after combining to account for 100% of the team’s guard snaps not played by Hunt last season, though all four had poor pass block win rates. After ignoring the position during April’s draft, Miami doesn’t have a short- or long-term solution at either guard spot. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Running back De’Von Achane. He was so wildly efficient in his rookie campaign. Despite playing in only 11 games and starting in four, Achane finished second in the league in rush yards over expectation with plus-279, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That trailed only Christian McCaffrey. If Achane can stay healthy for the entire year, he could help Miami get back to their torrid level of offense from early in 2023. — Walder

12. Cleveland Browns

Biggest strength: Edge rusher. It feels odd to not be talking about Cleveland’s offensive line here, but questions at tackle pushed me toward the breakout defense of 2023. Reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett leads that unit, having posted 50-plus pass rush wins and 10.0-plus sacks in six consecutive seasons. Za’Darius Smith returns after posting an outstanding 20.9% pass rush win rate last season, and there’s solid depth via Ogbo Okoronkwo and Alex Wright. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Running back. A running back room with Nick Chubb being listed as a weakness may seem ludicrous, but the Browns are loaded almost everywhere, and Chubb is very much an unknown after his horrific knee injury in Week 2 last season. If Chubb is somehow able to play at his usual elite level coming off this injury at age 28, this will remain a strength position for Cleveland. If not, the likes of Jerome Ford, D’Onta Foreman and Nyheim Hines will be tasked with holding down the fort. Browns RBs not named Chubb averaged 3.8 yards per carry and 4.8 yards per target last season. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Quarterback Deshaun Watson. If Watson somehow can regain the form he had when he played in Houston, this team with an otherwise strong roster is a Super Bowl contender. If he plays like he has as a Brown (42 QBR over two seasons), then it’s not. — Walder

13. Green Bay Packers

Biggest strength: Edge rusher. Preston Smith, Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness and Kingsley Enagbare were the only edge rushers to play 100-plus snaps for Green Bay in 2023. All are back for 2024. Smith (8.0-plus sacks in three straight seasons) and Gary (9.0-plus sacks in his past two healthy campaigns) form a solid one-two punch, and the team figures to get more out of 2023 first-round pick Van Ness (4.0 sacks as a rookie) in Year 2. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Off-ball linebacker. The offseason departure of De’Vondre Campbell leaves Green Bay with some uncertainty. Quay Walker has been a tackling machine through two seasons, though he’s received poor PFF grades due to shaky run defense and coverage ability. The larger concern is his running mates, as veterans Isaiah McDuffie and Eric Wilson will battle Day 2 rookies Edgerrin Cooper and Ty’Ron Hopper for work. There’s potential, but development is needed. — Clay

X factor for 2024: The wide receivers. There have been moments and flashes of upside from Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks. Odds are, one of them will ascend into a WR1-caliber player, but we haven’t seen it yet and don’t know which one it will be. Assuming that happens for someone, QB Jordan Love and the Packers’ offense should stay hot into 2024. — Walder

14. Los Angeles Rams

Biggest strength: Wide receiver. This conversation used to start with Cooper Kupp. While he’s still playing well as he enters his age-31 campaign, Puka Nacua is the new big man on campus. A fifth-round flier in last year’s draft, Nacua exploded for a 105-1,486-6 receiving line as a rookie, finishing no lower than eighth among receivers in snaps, targets, receptions and yards. Kupp and Nacua form a terrific duo, and Demarcus Robinson is a solid No. 3 option after producing 90-plus yards or a TD in five straight games late last season. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Safety. The Rams’ defensive overhaul is off to a good start after a strong 2023 draft, but there’s still plenty of work to do. The rebuild at safety continued this past offseason, with John Johnson III and Jordan Fuller departing. The duo will be replaced by a combination of versatile Kamren Curl (who was signed away from Washington), Russ Yeast (whose snaps were reduced late last season) and third-round rookie Kamren Kinchens. Quentin Lake could contribute as well, though he was the primary slot corner at the end of last season. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Cornerback Tre’Davious White. He’s coming off an Achilles injury suffered last October (and had a torn ACL in 2021), so his status is a major question mark. But if the Rams get White back to his level of play pre-major injuries and keep him healthy, they would suddenly have a pretty nice corner duo with him and Darious Williams. — Walder

15. Jacksonville Jaguars

Biggest strength: Off-ball linebacker. Don’t overlook an underrated Jaguars’ defense with plenty of star power. Foyesade Oluokun is one of those stars, having played 1,000-plus snaps and recorded 170-plus tackles in each of the past three seasons. Olukun has 56 more tackles than any other player and trails only Quandre Diggs in snaps during that span. Running mate Devin Lloyd — a 2022 first-round pick — showed improvement last season and now has 242 tackles in two seasons (20th in the league). — Clay

Biggest weakness: Offensive tackle. Same as last year, the offensive line is a concern, and that’s especially the case at tackle. LT Cam Robinson’s struggles have continued, and he sits dead last among tackles in run block win rate over the past two seasons. RT Anton Harrison (2023 first-round pick) is a candidate for a step forward in his second season, though he had his fair share of struggles as a rookie (third-worst OT in pass block win rate). — Clay

X factor for 2024: Edge rusher Travon Walker. It took time but Walker started to show up last season, posting a 15% pass rush win rate (just shy of average) at edge and 10 sacks. Does the former first-round pick have another gear in him? If so, he and Josh Allen could make quite a tandem, especially with Arik Armstead now on the defensive line, too. — Walder

16. Seattle Seahawks

Biggest strength: Wide receiver. Seattle’s roster has several standout units, but wideout gets the nod here over the defensive line. DK Metcalf (10th in receiving yards and fifth in TD receptions over the past four seasons) and Tyler Lockett (11th in receiving yards and sixth in TD receptions over the past six seasons) form a terrific one-two punch. We also figure to see more of Jaxon Smith-Njigba this season after the 2023 first-rounder posted a 63-628-4 receiving line. That’s an elite trio, and Jake Bobo and Laviska Shenault Jr. provide solid depth. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Offensive line. Seattle continues to throw darts at its line, but it has yet to pay off. Four of the team’s five projected starters (LG Laken Tomlinson, C Nick Harris, RG Anthony Bradford and RT Abraham Lucas) posted poor PFF grades in 2023, and LT Charles Cross has yet to live up to his first-round pedigree. The Seahawks spent three draft picks on the line during April’s draft, but only one was before the sixth round (third-rounder Christian Haynes). It’s hard to imagine this group improving much on last season’s below-average finishes in pass block and run block win rate. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba had a poor rookie campaign with open/catch/YAC scores of 45/23/55 in ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics, putting him well below average. While Seattle could get by on their aforementioned receiving strength before, they might need Smith-Njigba now. Lockett will turn 32 this year and showed signs of decline last year. — Walder

17. Chicago Bears

Biggest strength: Wide receiver. In a matter of two offseasons, Chicago has gone from having one of the league’s shakiest WR rooms to having perhaps the best. Last year’s DJ Moore acquisition proved extremely savvy, as he posted career-best marks in receptions (96), total yardage (1,385) and TDs (nine). This offseason, the Bears traded for Keenan Allen (32 years old, but fresh off perhaps his best season, which included a career-high 108 receptions) and spent the No. 9 overall pick in April’s draft on Rome Odunze. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Defensive line. Montez Sweat is a star, but he simply doesn’t have proven help right now. Consider: Sweat had 12.5 sacks last season, whereas every other lineman on the roster combined for 9.0. At DT, Andrew Billings is a serviceable vet and while 2023 Day 2 draft picks Gervon Dexter Sr. and Zacch Pickens could make a Year 2 leap, neither impressed in situational roles as rookies. At edge, Sweat will be joined by an uninspiring group of veterans that includes DeMarcus Walker, Dominique Robinson and Jacob Martin. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Quarterback Caleb Williams. Forgive the obvious selection but the Bears have a wide range of outcomes, and it all hinges on Williams. If he can hit the ground running in the NFL then the upside for this team is high because of all the parts around him on offense. But the team won’t run without him, and so that roster will be for naught if he comes along slowly. — Walder

18. Pittsburgh Steelers

Biggest strength: Edge rusher. T.J. Watt has been a first-team All-Pro in each of his past four healthy seasons, and he has a league-high 96.5 sacks since entering the NFL in 2017 (no one else has more than 88.5). Running mate Alex Highsmith has played a massive 85% of the defensive snaps over the past two seasons and sits 12th in the league in sacks (21.5) during the span. Depth is a minor concern, though second-year Nick Herbig impressed on 201 snaps as a rookie. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Wide receiver. A long-time strength has become a concern spot following the offseason trade of Diontae Johnson to Carolina. George Pickens has elite upside, but the position simply isn’t otherwise a priority for the new-look Arthur Smith-led offense. Van Jefferson and third-round rookie Roman Wilson will battle for No. 2 duties, with Calvin Austin III, Quez Watkins and Scotty Miller among those battling for situational work. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Rookie offensive linemen Troy Fautanu and Zach Frazier. Rookie offensive linemen, even first-round rookie offensive linemen like Fautanu, are typically below average in their first season. So while both Fautanu and Frazier (a second-round pick) offer upside given their draft pedigree, odds are they will represent weak points in the offensive line. — Walder

19. Atlanta Falcons

Biggest strength: Offensive line. All eyes are on QB Kirk Cousins, but don’t overlook his terrific protection detail. Seasoned veterans Jake Matthews and Kaleb McGary form a strong duo at tackle, Drew Dalman has emerged as an above-average center, and Chris Lindstrom is one of the league’s top guards. LG Matthew Bergeron is a good bet for a step forward as the 2023 second-round pick enters his second season. All five returning starters played 800-plus snaps last season. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Edge rusher. Atlanta finished 31st in pass rush win rate (33%) last season and does not have an edge rusher on the roster who played at least 40% of his team’s snaps in 2023. That list includes three returning players who could play an expanded role in 2024 in Lorenzo Carter, Zach Harrison and Arnold Ebiketie, as well as newcomers Bralen Trice and James Smith-Williams. The good news is that there’s some youth here, as Harrison, Ebiketie and Trice were Day 2 draft picks over the past three years. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Receiver Darnell Mooney and/or tight end Kyle Pitts. WR Drake London isn’t going to be able to carry a Cousins-led offense on his own, and so one of Mooney or Pitts is going to have to step up to be a strong second receiving option. If not, there’s no way the Falcons will be able to score enough points (especially given that the defense is surely going to surrender points due to its aforementioned lack of edge rush). — Walder

20. New Orleans Saints

Biggest strength: Edge rusher. It doesn’t get much deeper than what New Orleans is bringing to the table. Cameron Jordan (NFL-high 116.5 sacks since 2012) is still playing solid ball as his enters his age-35 season, and he won’t need to play a full-time role with Carl Granderson (career-high 8.5 sacks in 2023) and newcomer Chase Young (19.3% pass rush win rate last season) in the mix. Even after losing Tanoh Kpassagnon (Achilles) in the offseason, the team has additional highly drafted depth in Isaiah Foskey (2023 second-rounder) and Payton Turner (2021 first-rounder). — Clay

Biggest weakness: Interior defensive line. An offensive line likely to be without Ryan Ramczyk (knee injury) was a candidate here, but DT remains a major issue. Nathan Shepherd, Bryan Bresee and Khalen Saunders are all back from 2023, though none from that trio has played more than 53% of the snaps. The good news is that the Saints are deep at edge rusher, so coach Dennis Allen has ways of getting creative along the line. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Offensive tackles Taliese Fuaga and Trevor Penning. Penning posted a dismal 73% pass block win rate at tackle in 2023, and Fuaga is a rookie — and rookie offensive linemen, even first-rounders, tend to struggle. The odds are stacked against this pair being able to protect QB Derek Carr, but if they can, the Saints’ offense can be solid. — Walder

21. Indianapolis Colts

Biggest strength: Interior defensive line. This unit is anchored by one of the league’s best defenders, DeForest Buckner. The 30-year-old has played 700-plus snaps in all eight of his NFL seasons and has delivered at least 7.0 sacks in six consecutive campaigns. He’ll be joined in the trenches by underrated run-stuffer Grover Stewart and newcomer Raekwon Davis, with Taven Bryan, Eric Johnson II and versatile Tyquan Lewis and Dayo Odeyingbo adding depth. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Secondary. The Colts simply haven’t done enough to address the secondary, with their only offseason additions coming via Day 3 draft fliers. Kenny Moore II is a star, but cornerback is very unproven behind him. The team will hope for a leap from 2023 second-round pick JuJu Brents, with the likes of Dallis Flowers, Jaylon Jones and Darrell Baker Jr. again battling for substantial snaps. Julian Blackmon was a late re-signing at safety, which provides some stability, but the other starting spot is an unknown after Rodney Thomas II was benched for Nick Cross late last season. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Edge rushers Kwity Paye and Laiatu Latu. Paye finished last season strong, ranking 12th in pass rush win rate at the edge from Week 10 on. If that second half continues into 2024, and Latu — the first defensive player selected in the 2024 draft — can disrupt QBs right away, then the Colts could have a feisty pass rush between those two and Buckner. — Walder

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Biggest strength: Safety. This group is anchored by 2023 first-team All-Pro Antoine Winfield Jr., who became the highest-paid defensive back in league history in March. Old friend Jordan Whitehead is back for his second tour with the Bucs after playing over 1,000 snaps each of the past two seasons with the Jets. Tampa Bay added depth via Tykee Smith in the third round of April’s draft. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Edge rusher. This was a toss-up between edge rusher and interior offensive line, but the departure of Shaquil Barrett (45.0 sacks in five seasons) swung my decision toward the former. Tampa Bay will now turn to a combination of Yaya Diaby, newcomer Randy Gregory, second-round rookie Chris Braswell, former first-rounder Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Anthony Nelson as its core at the position. None of those veterans played more than half of his team’s snaps in 2023. This is a rough situation for a team that finished 22nd in pass rush win rate last season. — Clay

X factor for 2024: The offensive line. Outside of Tristan Wirfs, the entire line is either a question mark or a concern. Cody Mauch ranked last among guards in pass block win rate (85%) last season, and Ben Bredeson (88%) wasn’t that much better with the Giants. Luke Goedeke (86%) was below average in the metric among tackles, and Graham Barton is a rookie. Whether QB Baker Mayfield can repeat his 2023 performance may hinge on this group. — Walder

23. Minnesota Vikings

Biggest strength: Safety. Minnesota is the only team with three safeties on the roster who played at least 900 snaps last season. Harrison Smith, Camryn Bynum and Josh Metellus (who got some work at slot corner) were all on the field for at least 94% of the Vikings’ defensive plays, and the trio combined for 342 tackles. Smith is still playing solid ball as he enters his age-35 season. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Interior defensive line. Harrison Phillips is a serviceable veteran, though the 28-year-old struggled to generate much pressure last season (six pass rush wins). There’s not a ton to love behind him, with journeymen Jonathan Bullard, Jerry Tillery and Jonah Williams positioned to handle the bulk of the snaps. The team’s only draft day investment in the position was seventh-rounder Levi Drake Rodriguez. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Receiver Jordan Addison. He was solid as a rookie, with 1.6 yards per route run and a 54 overall score in the receiver tracking metrics. But in order to truly form a dangerous one-two combination with Justin Jefferson and support rookie QB J.J. McCarthy, the Vikings need more out of Addison in Year 2. — Walder

24. Los Angeles Chargers

Biggest strength: Edge rusher. Joey Bosa should be the headliner here, but injuries have been an issue, as he’s been limited to 14 games over the past two seasons. Of course, he was a superstar during his first six seasons (58 sacks) and was effective in nine games in 2023 (6.5 sacks). Opposite Bosa is Khalil Mack, who is now 33 years old but still playing elite ball, having recorded 17.0 sacks last season (fourth-most in the league). Second-year man Tuli Tuipulotu and veteran newcomer Bud Dupree add solid depth. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Running back. I had a ton of options here (interior OL? WR? DT? LB?), but running back gets the nod. Austin Ekeler is gone, and the team brought in a pair of ex-Ravens to hold down the position in Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. At 29, Edwards is over the hill for an NFL starting back and has never had 200 carries or 15 targets in a single season. Dobbins has upside, but he’s recovering from a torn Achilles and has appeared in nine games over the past three seasons. Sixth-rounder Kimani Vidal was the team’s only addition at the position during the draft. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Receivers Ladd McConkey and Joshua Palmer. The Chargers jettisoned Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, setting their sights on the future at wide receiver. It made sense for the long term. But if Palmer doesn’t ascend and McConkey can’t adapt quickly, it’s hard to imagine how threatening the Chargers’ passing game can be — even with QB Justin Herbert — in the immediate. — Walder

25. Tennessee Titans

Biggest strength: Wide receiver. Tennessee’s new-look WR room is too good to ignore. DeAndre Hopkins is back for his age-32 campaign, and he’ll now be joined by Calvin Ridley on the other perimeter and Tyler Boyd in the slot. Hopkins and Boyd rank fifth and 13th, respectively, among WRs in receptions since 2018. Ridley led the NFL in end zone targets (25) and scored eight TDs with the Jaguars in 2023. Former first-round pick Treylon Burks offers some upside off the bench. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Off-ball linebacker. Azeez Al-Shaair (who led the team in defensive snaps last season) departed for Houston during the offseason, so Tennessee signed Kenneth Murray Jr. — a former first-round pick who didn’t work out for the Chargers — as a replacement. That’s a downgrade and the depth behind him doesn’t move the needle much. Former UDFA Jack Gibbens was a serviceable running mate for Al-Shaair last season and the team will need some production from fourth-round rookie Cedric Gray. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. The new addition is coming off a season in which he was one of the best corners in the game. But cornerback is a fickle position, and you never know exactly what you’re getting from one year to the next. The upside is there, though: If Sneed, Chidobe Awuzie and Roger McCreary all maintain their level of play from last year, that’s a solid trio of corners. — Walder

26. Las Vegas Raiders

Biggest strength: Defensive line. The Raiders already had one of the league’s best edge rushers in Maxx Crosby (fourth in the league with 27.0 sacks and first among edge rushers with 178 tackles over the past two seasons) and added one of the league’s top defensive tackles in Christian Wilkins (fifth among DTs with 9.0 sacks in 2023) during free agency. Malcolm Koonce has emerged as a solid edge, and the Raiders will expect a leap from 2023 first-round pick Tyree Wilson this season. DT depth behind Wilkins is a concern, but this unit has plenty of potential. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Quarterback. Perhaps the league’s most underwhelming QB situation will involve a battle between 2023 fourth-round pick Aidan O’Connell and veteran newcomer Gardner Minshew. Minshew was solid (13th in QBR) in place of injured Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis last season, whereas O’Connell held down the fort (25th) after replacing Jimmy Garoppolo in Las Vegas. The Raiders will need O’Connell to make a big leap and become a gem Day 3 find. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Cornerbacks Jack Jones, Jakorian Bennett and Nate Hobbs. The defensive line is clearly a strength, as Mike mentioned. So the success of this defense will rise or fall with the three corners. Jones, claimed off waivers from New England last year, recorded a slightly better than average 1.2 yards per coverage snap allowed last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Hobbs (1.6) and Bennett (1.7) were worse in the metric — though Bennett’s numbers came in a small sample. Vegas will need at least some of this group to step up in 2024. — Walder

27. New England Patriots

Biggest strength: Safety. Jabrill Peppers was called on to play an expanded role last season and the move paid off. The former first-round pick handled a career-high 913 snaps and was PFF’s fifth-highest-graded safety. He’s back in 2024, as is Kyle Dugger, who posted career-high marks in snaps (1,069), tackles (107) and sacks (1.5) last season. Dugger is ninth in the league in INTs (nine) over the past three seasons. The team will expect more from 2023 third-rounder Marte Mapu this season. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Wide receiver. The bad news is that the Patriots have one of the shakiest and unproven WR rooms in the league. The good news is that they finally have some potential at the position. DeMario Douglas flashed as a fifth-round rookie last season, and New England spent a pair of 2024 draft picks on Ja’Lynn Polk (second round) and Javon Baker (fourth). Kendrick Bourne (recovering from a torn ACL), JuJu Smith-Schuster and K.J. Osborn are among the veterans competing for a role. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Guards Cole Strange and Sidy Sow. They ranked 57th and 58th out of 62 qualifying guards in pass block win rate last season, respectively, and New England will need them both to step up to protect Drake Maye or Jacoby Brissett. — Walder

28. Arizona Cardinals

Biggest strength: Safety. In six seasons since becoming a full-time starter, Budda Baker ranks 10th in the NFL, and first among non-linebackers, with 661 tackles. Running mate Jalen Thompson actually has more tackles than Baker over the past three seasons (307 to 296) and sits third among all safeties during the span. Both missed a few games last season, and Andre Chachere proved a solid replacement. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Interior defensive line. Arizona still has a lot of problem areas (O-line and cornerback among them), but the interior defensive line has been a major issue since the departure of Zach Allen last offseason. Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols are the newcomers and will join the likes of L.J. Collier, Roy Lopez and Dante Stills in the rotation. Stills (2023 sixth-rounder) is the only investment the team has made in the position during the past two drafts. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Tackles Paris Johnson Jr. and Jonah Williams. Neither has proved to be an effective pass-protector yet, according to pass block win rate. Last year, Johnson’s 82% pass block win rate ranked 63rd out of 69 qualifying tackles. Williams wasn’t much better at 84% (53rd). Johnson, a rookie in 2023, did show improvement from Week 12 on with an 87% PBWR. Arizona is going to need these two to step up to protect QB Kyler Murray in 2024. — Walder

29. Carolina Panthers

Biggest strength: Offensive tackle. Only two players, RT Taylor Moton and LT Ikem Ekwonu, lined up at tackle for the Panthers last season and both are back for 2024. Moton is the star, having posted an above-average mark in pass block and run block win rate each of the past two seasons. Ekwonu still has room for improvement, especially as a pass-blocker, but the 2022 first-round pick is only 23 and has a ton of potential. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Tight end. Hayden Hurst departed during free agency, leaving Tommy Tremble, Ian Thomas and Stephen Sullivan as the top returning tight ends on the depth chart. None of the three played more than 52% of the snaps last season, and the entire Carolina TE room combined to average a league-worst 5.6 yards per target. Fourth-round rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders is a name to watch, but the 21-year-old figures to require some development. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. Carolina spent big on their two guards to protect and give some room for Bryce Young to operate as a shorter QB. Now it’s time to find out if they can deliver. Hunt was top 20 in pass block win rate at guard in 2022 but was below average in the same category in a smaller sample in 2023. And Lewis, too, was below average in PBWR last year, though he ranked 13th in run block win rate at the position. — Walder

30. Washington Commanders

Biggest strength: Off-ball linebacker. Washington revamped its LB situation by adding every-down players Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu during free agency. Wagner is entering his age-34 season, but he has shown no sign of drop-off, pacing the NFL with 183 tackles last season. The versatile Luvu is one of only two players with 200-plus tackles and 12-plus sacks in the past two seasons. Former first-round pick Jamin Davis, Mykal Walker and rookie Jordan Magee add depth. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Edge rusher. I could’ve gone offensive tackle here, but at least Washington threw some darts at that position during the draft. Edge rusher, however, is in transition after the team traded away Montez Sweat and Chase Young last season. Newcomers Dorance Armstrong, Clelin Ferrell and Dante Fowler Jr. top the depth chart after none cleared 452 snaps in 2023. This unit will require contributions from versatile Luvu and perhaps Davis. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Cornerbacks Benjamin St-Juste and Emmanuel Forbes Jr. Last season, no outside corner surrendered more yards to opponents than St-Juste (877), per NFL Next Gen Stats. And Forbes allowed 2.4 yards per coverage snap, the second-most by an outside corner with at least 250 coverage snaps. Those are some tough numbers from players the Commanders will be relying on. Their performances will play a big role in the defense’s success — or lack thereof — in 2024. — Walder

31. Denver Broncos

Biggest strength: Offensive line. Denver returns four of five starters from 2023. Last offseason’s big investment, RT Mike McGlinchey, and LT Garett Bolles finished 2023 with solid-to-great marks in pass block win rate and run block win rate for the second consecutive campaign. The standout duo will be joined by LG Ben Powers (second-best run block win rate among guards over the past two seasons) and RG Quinn Meinerz (PFF’s fourth-highest graded guard in 2023). New center Sam Mustipher is the only potential concern as he replaces standout Lloyd Cushenberry II. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Safety. A long-time strength thanks to the presence of since-departed Justin Simmons, safety is now a major concern area for Denver. Newcomer Brandon Jones has never played a full season as an every-down player but could be the team’s top option at the position. It’s a similar story for the rest of the depth chart, as P.J. Locke, Delarrin Turner-Yell and Caden Sterns are career situational players/backups with plenty to prove. Sterns could be a find, but he’s missed most of the past two seasons due to injuries. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Edge rusher Nik Bonitto. The Broncos need one of their edge rushers — Jonathon Cooper, Baron Browning, Bonitto or rookie Jonah Elliss — to establish themselves as a double-digit sack player. I like Bonitto as the one with the best chance. Though he had half a sack fewer than Cooper (8.0 to 8.5) last season, Bonitto’s pass rush win rate was much better at 16% (roughly average for a starting edge rusher). Cooper was down at 10%. — Walder

32. New York Giants

Biggest strength: Defensive front. The Giants have many major roster concerns, but they certainly have some star power up front. Dexter Lawrence (second-team All-Pro each of the past two seasons) is one of the league’s best defenders, and while New York is extremely shaky behind him at DT, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux form a potentially dominant edge rusher duo. We know Burns (46.0 sacks in five seasons) is great and while Thibodeaux is still progressing, the 2022 first-round pick made a big leap with 11.5 sacks last season. — Clay

Biggest weakness: Secondary. With Xavier McKinney and Adoree’ Jackson gone, the Giants have what is arguably the league’s shakiest unit at both cornerback and safety. Deonte Banks (a 2023 first-round pick) will need to make a leap forward in Year 2 and carry the CB room. The likes of Cor’Dale Flott, Nick McCloud, Tre Hawkins III and third-round rookie Dru Phillips are among those competing for the other starting jobs. At safety, Jason Pinnock has proved to be a competent starter, and he’ll be joined by some combination of second-round rookie Tyler Nubin, Dane Belton and Jalen Mills. — Clay

X factor for 2024: Right tackle Evan Neal. It’s make-or-break time for the 2022 No. 7 overall pick. As it stands, he represents one of many weaknesses on the Giants roster; he ranked 54th out of 69 tackles in pass block win rate last season. If he can live up to his draft stock, he would form an exceptional tackle duo with Andrew Thomas, but so far in his young career, it hasn’t happened. — Walder