The Daily Briefing Wednesday, June 8, 2022

NFC EAST

NEW YORK GIANTS

Can QB DANIEL JONES stay off the bus to Bustville?  Adam Rank at NFL.com on his upcoming crucial season.

Members of the Giants’ organization, Giants fans around the world and those who watch Eli’s contributions to the Manning Cast wistfully:

There is a new era in New York. I’m sure you’ve heard that before. But it really feels like new general manager Joe Schoen and new head coach Brian Daboll are going to stick. Does that mean the Giants are challenging for the NFC East title this year? Maybe not, but I’m optimistic about what they have going.

2021 rewind

One high from last season: Beating the Raiders in Week 9. This victory, coming just before the bye week, seemed pretty cool at the time. I mean, it’s not like we were expecting the Giants, who came out of this one with a 3-6 record, to go on some huge winning streak or anything. (Well, maybe you were.) But it was a pretty good game against a team on its way to the playoffs.

One low from last season: Losing to the Bears in Week 17. Most of the year would pretty much qualify here, but this loss stands out to me. Even as a Bears fan, I was perhaps more disappointed in the Giants than anything; Chicago was still playing hard for its lame-duck coach, but New York did not give the same effort. It’s not even like the Giants could take solace in their improved draft position, because any lift this result gave to their assigned first-rounder would have been negated by the hit to Chicago’s first-round pick, which the Giants owned as a result of 2021’s Justin Fields trade.

2022 VIPs

Head coach: Brian Daboll. Speaking of being a Bears fan, I was kind of expecting Daboll to be the next coach in Chicago. The work that he did as the Bills’ offensive coordinator with Josh Allen from 2018 through 2021 — and with former-Bears-starter-turned-Bills-backup Mitch Trubisky last season — made him seem like a good fit to help Fields in Chicago. Honestly, Daboll was going to be attractive to any team trying to develop a young quarterback, and he’ll get at least one chance (and perhaps more chances, depending on what happens with the incumbent QB) to help Big Blue do that. Ultimately, he’s going to be judged (no pun intended) for what he does with the quarterback position, whoever ends up filling it long-term.

Plus, he’s already made himself a New York legend by jumping on the New York Rangers bandwagon. I mean, I probably would have stayed at the Giants’ facility to do some more work instead of spending so much time at Madison Square Garden. But it’s June, and he’s out there feeling himself, so I can’t really be too mad.

Quarterback: Daniel Jones. Yes, Jones is a former top-10 pick — but Daboll and Schoen weren’t the ones who selected him sixth overall in 2019. They presumably entered their jobs with no extra emotional investment in seeing him succeed. It’s like moving into a new apartment where the previous resident left a couch in the living room. You might as well see if it will work for you, because it would be awesome if it did. But it won’t take much to get rid of it if you find out it smells like the kitchen of Famous Ray’s Pizza.

The 25-year-old Jones has some of the attributes that made Allen so successful while being coached by Daboll in Buffalo. They are obviously not the same player; Allen has produced like a premier quarterback over the past two seasons, while Jones’ TD-to-INT ratio over that span (21:17) is uninspiring, at best. But, like Allen, Jones is mobile (they are two of the seven QBs to top 900 rushing yards over the past three seasons), and their per-game figures over the first three years of their careers are closer than one might think (61.8 percent completion rate, 220.6 passing yards, 35.5 rushing yards for Allen from 2018 to 2020; 62.8 percent completion rate, 221 passing yards, 26.3 rushing yards for Jones from 2019 to 2021).

Complicating Jones’ status is the fact that the team declined to pick up the fifth-year option on his rookie contract for 2023, meaning he is currently bound for free agency after this season, no matter how well he plays. But it would serve the Giants well to at least see how Jones reacts to solid coaching for a change, even if his future with the team remains unsettled.

Projected 2022 MVP: Jones. I don’t think anybody has the playoffs on their mind this year. But if the Giants are to have success or even maybe make some kind of a run, Jones is the likeliest person to drive that, via his development under center. Specifically, he needs to cut down on the turnovers. Jones has thrown 29 picks and coughed up 36 fumbles, which is a big factor in his paltry win total (12) as a starter. The Giants have added receivers over the years, and they executed a great draft plan this year to fill some holes. But a huge improvement from Jones can be the biggest difference-maker for this group.

NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAY

QB TOM BRADY was instrumental in the return of RB LEONARD FOURNETTE.  Greg Auman of The Athletic:

@gregauman

Fournette said before he re-signed with Bucs as he visited the Patriots, Brady reached out to him and said “What’s your ass doing up there?”

NFC WEST

SEATTLE

As he awaits a big payday, from the Seahawks or someone else if Seattle balks, WR DK METCALF is an unexcused mini-camp absentee.  Brady Henderson of ESPH.com:

Star wide receiver DK Metcalf was not present Tuesday for the start of the Seattle Seahawks’ three-day mandatory minicamp.

Sources told ESPN that Metcalf’s absence is unexcused, meaning he’s subject to team fines that would total more than $93,000 if he were to miss all three days.

Metcalf is seeking an extension to his rookie contract and also is recovering from surgery for the foot injury he played through for much of last season. His absence from the start of mandatory minicamp marks something of a turn in his approach, as he was present earlier this spring for portions of the team’s voluntary offseason program. At the time, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll praised Metcalf for showing up amid his unsettled contract situation and recovery from foot surgery.

The news of Metcalf’s absence was first reported by NFL Network.

Metcalf, 24, is in line for a massive extension after recording a combined 216 catches for 3,170 yards and 29 touchdowns over his first three seasons. He has not missed a game since the Seahawks drafted him with the final pick of the second round in 2019.

The Seahawks have maintained that they want to extend Metcalf and, according to a source, are optimistic that a deal will get done. They typically don’t do big-budget extensions for players already under contract until training camp.

But the prospects of Seattle extending Metcalf have seemed less than certain since general manager John Schneider, in a March interview on Seattle Sports 710 AM, expressed “a sense of shock” at how the wide receiver market had skyrocketed because of the megadeals signed by Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams.

AFC WEST

DENVER

The Denver Broncos will become part of the Walmart empire.  Jeff Legwold ofESPN.com:

The Denver Broncos have entered a sale agreement with the Walton-Penner family ownership group, the sides announced Tuesday night.

The agreement is for $4.65 billion, sources told ESPN, confirming multiple reports. That would be a record price paid for a North American sports franchise.

The Walton-Penner group — headed by Walmart heir Rob Walton; his daughter, Carrie Walton Penner; and her husband, Greg Penner — will also include Mellody Hobson, co-CEO of Ariel Investments as well as chair of the board of the Starbucks Corp. and a director at JP Morgan Chase.

“Today marks a significant step on the path to an exciting new chapter in Broncos history,” Broncos CEO Joe Ellis said in a statement.

The sale agreement is subject to review by the NFL’s finance committee and must be approved by a full vote of NFL owners. Twenty-four yes votes are needed for the sale to be approved.

It is expected to take 60 to 90 days for the sale to be approved and the deal to be closed; no issues are expected, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

“We are thrilled to be selected to move forward with the purchase of the Denver Broncos!” Walton said in a statement. “Carrie, Greg and I are inspired by the opportunity to steward this great organization in a vibrant community full of opportunity and passionate fans. Having lived and worked in Colorado, we’ve always admired the Broncos. Our enthusiasm has only grown as we’ve learned more about the team, staff and Broncos Country over the last few months.”

The Walton-Penner group was, according to multiple sources, one of four groups that had advanced to the second round of bidding this week. Those bids had been due to the trustees of the Pat Bowlen Trust by 5 p.m. ET Monday. Forbes has estimated Walton’s net worth at $59 billion.

The Broncos have been one of the NFL’s most successful franchises in the Super Bowl era, with three Super Bowl wins in Pat Bowlen’s ownership tenure, and they now have an ownership group with some of the deepest pockets.

The Carolina Panthers had held the record for most paid for an NFL franchise when David Tepper purchased the team in 2018 for $2.3 billion. The most paid previously for a North American sports franchise was $2.475 billion in 2020 by Steven Cohen to purchase the New York Mets.

A group led by Todd Boehly, who has interests in the Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Lakers among his vast portfolio, recently purchased Chelsea in the English Premier League for more than $5 billion.

Bowlen and his siblings originally paid $78 million in 1984 for controlling interest in the Broncos. Bowlen later purchased the shares held by his sister and two brothers. The team had more Super Bowl appearances (seven) than losing seasons in his tenure.

It is expected Penner will have a prominent role in the day-to-day operations of the team, and Ellis had expressed the importance, since the team was formally put up for sale Feb. 1, that the new owner be “visible” in the community and understand the Broncos’ place in Denver, the state of Colorado and the region.

The agreement ends an eight-year odyssey since Bowlen stepped away from the day-to-day operations of the team he had owned for 30 years in July 2014 due to the onset of Alzheimer’s disease. Bowlen died in 2019.

Bowlen never formally declared a successor among his children, and when he stepped away from the team’s day-to-day operations, he had his interest in the team (estimated to be about 78% at the time) placed in a trust overseen by Ellis, Broncos counsel Rich Slivka and Denver attorney Mary Kelly.

What followed included a lawsuit between family members, harsh words and court dates that coincided with a current six-year streak of playoff misses on the field. The team’s Super Bowl 50 win to close out the 2015 season was the last postseason game the Broncos played.

The trustees and team officials had met with all the prospective bidders, who toured the team’s facilities as well as its home stadium in recent weeks.

Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett said Monday he had met “a solid amount” of the potential bidders and added: “After talking to everybody, I think that they all have an amazing passion and want to be a part of this league and they want to be a part of a team. I think that’s something that’s really beautiful. They want to come to win, and they want to do something great here. Whoever it is, I think that we’re going to be very grateful.”

The sale agreement with the Walton-Penner group also means Walton and Stan Kroenke, Walton’s cousin by marriage, will own five of the six major professional sports franchises in Colorado. Kroenke owns the Denver Nuggets, Colorado Avalanche, Colorado Rapids and Colorado Mammoth lacrosse team, in addition to a regional media company in the state.

Rob Walton is 77 years old and the youngest son of Walmart co-founder Sam Walton.  He is a graduate of Arkansas and Columbia University’s School of Law.

Carrie Walton Penner is a graduate of Georgetown with a master’s degree from Stanford.  She is a major proponent of school choice.

She met husband Greg Penner at Georgetown.  The couple lives in Silicon Valley and has four kids.  Greg Penner, 52, is, who has a Stanford business MBA, started out in a Walmart store, rose steadily through the ranks including a stint running Walmart in Japan, and is now the Chairman of Walmart.

As for Mellody Hobson, she is the Chair of the Board of Starbucks among other activities.

Originally from Chicago, Hobson has two degrees from Princeton.  This from her Wikipedia page:

After her graduation from Princeton, Hobson joined Ariel Investments, a Chicago investment firm that manages nearly $13 billion in assets as an intern. She rose to become the firm’s senior vice president and director of marketing. In 2000, she ascended to become the company’s president. It is also one of the largest African American-owned money management and mutual fund companies in the United States. She was a contributor to financial segments on Good Morning America for many years.

You might guess a long time before you got her husband – George Lucas of Star Wars fame, whom she married in 2013.

– – –

This from Brian Warner at Celebrity Net Worth:

John Elway’s family may want to give him a bit of space for the next few days/weeks/months. Maybe get him a therapy dog or sign him up for Talk Space. Disconnect the wifi and cancel cable. Whatever it takes to get his mind off the fact that an $800 million payday is about to officially slip through his fingers.

This story be familiar to regular Celebrity Net Worth readers, but just in case here’s a brief recap:

John Elway played for the Denver Broncos for his entire career, during which time he threw for 50,000+ yards, with exactly 300 touchdown passes, nine Pro Bowl teams and two Super Bowl championships.

Back in 1998, his final NFL season, team owner Pat Bowlen came to John with an offer. At the time, John was owed $21 million in deferred salary (à la Bobby Bonilla). Bowlen’s offer was simple:

#1: John could buy 10% of the team for $15 million.

#2: John could have another 10% if he agreed to relinquish the $21 million deferred salary.

In other words, for a combined $36 million (with only $15 million of cash coming out of his bank on day one), John Elway could have bought 20% of the Broncos. At that level, Bowlen was offering 20% of the Broncos at a $180 million overall team valuation.

As if that offer wasn’t generous enough, Pat gave John a 100% risk-free insurance policy. If after five years John wanted out, he could sell his stake back to Bowlen for his purchase price plus $5 million. So not only risk free, literally get paid $5 million if he changed his mind.

And in case you are wondering if Elway could have afforded $15 million down in 1998, at that point he had earned $50 million in NFL salary, around $20 million from endorsements AND just one year earlier had sold his John Elway Autos franchise for $82.5 million.

So $15 million for a risk-free opportunity to own 20% of an NFL team. What did John decide?

He declined. And today that officially became an absolutely horrendous decision…

The Bowlen Trust Cashes Out

Broncos owner Pat Bowlen died on June 13, 2019 at the age of 75. Upon his death Broncos ownership was passed down to his seven children in equal parts.

Unfortunately, family owned businesses can be a hornet’s nest of challenges. Especially when no one has a majority ownership stake to make final decisions.

The Bowlen heirs reportedly struggled for two years over basic franchise decisions. In the end, they did agree on one thing: It was time to cash out.

In March of this year, the Bowlen Trust announced it was seeking acquisition offers for the Broncos. And today a winner has been chosen.

Earlier this morning it was revealed that the Bowlen Trust reached an agreement with Walmart heir Rob Walton to sell the Broncos for…

$4.5 billion

Not to beat a dead bronco, but recall that John Elway was offered the chance to buy 20% at a $180 million team valuation. In other words, today John Elway’s decision to NOT take Pat Bowlen’s offer officially cost him…

$900 million

As if that wasn’t painful enough, there’s more pain in this story for John Elway. Instead of buying 20% of the Broncos, John ended up taking that same down payment amount, $15 million, and invested it in what eventually proved to be a $150 million Ponzi scheme. Not only did John NOT make any return on the $15 million, he lost a bit more than half of his investment.

AFC NORTH

CLEVELAND

The stink around DESHAUN WATSON grows as Jenny Vrentas of the New York Times writes an opus on the troubled QB.  The new ground she breaks includes far more contacts with massage therapists, replete with familiar issues, the complicity of the Texans in his endeavors and disturbing inferences as to how he managed not to get indicted.

We can’t link to it directly, but here are some interpretations.  Sarah Barshop and Jake Trotter of ESPN.com on the immense number of women that Watson met in this fashion:

The New York Times reported Tuesday that Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson booked massage appointments with at least 66 different women over 17 months, from fall 2019 through spring 2021.

The list of 66 includes the 24 women who have filed lawsuits against Watson, including two in the past week; a woman who sued Watson, but then withdrew the complaint; two women who filed criminal complaints against Watson but did not sue him; at least 15 therapists who issued statements of support for Watson at the request of his lawyers; at least four therapists contracted with the Texans; five women identified by the plaintiffs’ lawyers during the investigation for their civil suits; and at least 15 other women whose appointments with Watson were confirmed through interviews and records reviewed by The Times.

A few of these additional women spoke publicly for the first time to the Times. One woman, who did not sue Watson or complain to the police, told The Times that he was persistent in his requests for sexual acts during their massage, including “begging” her to put her mouth on his penis.

The New York Times also reported that the nondisclosure agreement that Watson gave to some of the women to sign came from the Texans’ director of security, Brent Naccara. The Times reports that the NDA was in Watson’s locker at NRG Stadium days after a woman posted Watson’s phone number on Instagram.

The Texans declined to comment on the NDA, but said in a statement that they first found out about the allegations against Watson in March 2021 when the first lawsuit was filed.

The latest lawsuit filed Monday says the plaintiff massaged Watson twice. The first session, the lawsuit says, was cut short because “Watson had to leave abruptly after taking a phone call.” The lawsuit says Watson scheduled a second massage a few days later, when the woman says that Watson exposed himself and masturbated and “offered no apology or explanation for his conduct.” The lawsuit says the plaintiff “shortly thereafter quit massage therapy.”

In a statement released Monday evening, Watson’s attorney, Rusty Hardin, said: “We are unable to respond to the new lawsuit at this time. Our legal team has not had time to investigate this new filing and had not heard her name until today. Deshaun continues to deny he did anything inappropriate with any of the plaintiffs.”

As the 24th lawsuit was being formally announced, Watson took part in the Browns’ charity golf outing in Rocky River, Ohio. He did not speak to the media.

Though two grand juries in Texas declined to pursue criminal charges against Watson earlier this year, the NFL is investigating whether he violated its code of conduct and interviewed the quarterback in person last month as part of its investigation. At the league’s spring meeting, commissioner Roger Goodell said he thought the NFL was nearing the end of its investigation but couldn’t give a timeline for when a ruling might be made.

Watson has denied all wrongdoing.

As to the Texans involvement, Mike Florio:

Tuesday’s comprehensive article from Jenny Vrentas of the New York Times regarding the Deshaun Watson situation also takes a look at what the Texans knew and when they knew it about Watson’s massage habits. It raises real questions about what the Texans actually knew, and what they reasonably should have known.

Vrentas reports that the Texans arranged for Watson to have “a place” at the Houstonian, where he “used the fitness club, dined there and also set up massages in hotel rooms.” At least seven women met with Watson at the Houstonian for massage appointments.

Watson has testified that, to his knowledge, the Texans weren’t aware that he was getting massages at the Houstonian.

Vrentas also reports that Nia Smith (who sued Watson last week) posted text messages and Cash App receipts from Watson with this warning: “I could really expose you.” Watson has testified that, days after these Instagram posts from Nia Smith, Watson found a nondisclosure agreement in his locker. Watson admitted that Texans director of security Brent Naccara put it there after Watson told Naccara about Nia Smith’s Instagram posts.

Watson also testified that he started using the NDA for massages he received thereafter.

Does this mean Naccara knew that Watson was receiving or seeking sexual activity during massages, or that Watson was potentially crossing the line? No. Does it mean that Naccara, a former Secret Service agent who surely knows how to assess and neutralize all sorts of threats, should have asked Watson some pointed questions and/or given him some candid advice on what should and shouldn’t be done during these massages? Absolutely.

The law calls it “inquiry notice.” You know enough that you should start asking questions. Naccara, by virtue of the fact that he gave Watson an NDA to use during massages, knew enough to start asking some questions.

That said, it’s not easy. NFL franchises have blind spots when it comes to franchise quarterbacks. They don’t want to upset the player. They want to assume the best, not the worst, of the face of the franchise. And Watson, frankly, was widely regarded as the last guy who would have been accused of this kind of thing, before he was.

More from Florio on Watson’s attorney, Rusty Hardin, getting ample access to pressure Assistant DA Johna Stallings:

According to Vrentas, Stallings and Hardin “met at Hardin’s office, spoke over the phone 12 times and exchanged more than two dozen text messages” in the two months before ten criminal complaints were presented to a pair of grand juries in Texas.

Hardin called it “a standard practice” for criminal defense lawyers to work directly with prosecutors. The Harris County district attorney’s office did not respond to specific questions from Vrentas about the communications.

Hardin, per Vrentas, “created a slide presentation arguing for Watson’s innocence and gave it to Stallings along with other documents he deemed important.” Watson did not testify before the grand jury.

“We will let our submissions to you on our client’s behalf serve as our presentation to the Grand Jury,” Hardin told Stallings via email.

Attorney Tony Buzbee, who represents the 24 women who have sued Watson in civil court — eight of whom made criminal complaints — posted a statement on Tuesday night criticizing the extent to which Hardin and the prosecutor communicated.

“Just so there is no confusion,” Buzbee said on Instagram, “I personally contacted the Harris County DA’s office one time on behalf of the victims to make available to her my clients and any evidence I had collected. My team also did so. They wouldn’t even talk to us! I has no idea that the assistant district attorney was regularly corresponding with Deshaun Watson’s lawyer by email and text; I didn’t know that the assistant district attorney actually went to [Rusty] Hardin’s office to discuss the cases; I didn’t know that Watson’s lawyer provided a PowerPoint that was to be used before the grand jury. I didn’t know, but now know after speaking to the investigating officer under oath, that the police investigation team was convinced that Watson had committed more than ten sexual crimes, or that the ADA has prevented the investigating officers from talking to the women who had filed lawsuits but had not filed criminal complaints. And what I do know is that, of the multiple criminal complainants in Houston, only one was asked by the ADA to appear in front of the grand jury, even though other victims were standing by to do so. As a taxpayer, and more importantly as the advocate for these women, I feel ‘home towned’ in my own home town, and duped. I think the public and all interested were duped as well. Makes you wonder. . . . Thank God for the civil justice system.”

Hardin puts much weight on the decision of the two grand juries not to indict Watson. The truth very well could be that Stallings knew that the level of attention Hardin was devoting to the pre-grand jury process was just a glimpse of what she would have to endure if Watson were indicted — and if Stallings then had to develop proof beyond a reasonable doubt for cases that boil down to a series of conflicting versions of events between two people with no witnesses.

Common sense suggests she simply didn’t want to pick a fight that she was convinced she’d lose. With Watson able to afford Hardin and his team of lawyers, who would aggressively defend Watson in every case and drain the resources and test the skills of Stallings and her staff, Stallings may have decided it just wasn’t worth spinning the wheels and eventually experiencing acquittal after acquittal based on the reality that reasonable doubt is much easier to conjure when the evidence is limited to the testimony of a single witness who inevitably would face a withering cross-examination from a skilled litigator like Hardin.

And so, instead of exercising her broad discretion to, as the saying goes, indict a ham sandwich, Hardin apparently made a more measured and balanced presentation aimed at nudging the grand jury away from biting off more than she was willing or able to chew.

The end result? No indictment. All things considered, it’s arguably no surprise.

THIS AND THAT

RANKING THE COACHES

Conor McQuiston of ProFootballFocus.com uses “analytics” to rank the current NFL coaches:

Ranking NFL head coaches from an analytics perspective is a Sisyphean task for one simple reason: It’s easy to win games with good players. Barring a calamity or an incredibly poor surrounding roster, most competent NFL coaches would still manage to be competitive for a playoff spot with Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback.

Using this idea in ranking the current NFL head coaches, we try to do two things: 1) properly account for a team’s talent level, and 2) predict something less volatile than wins. We do this by creating a multilevel model where the fixed effects are the salaries of each starter on both sides of the ball, including an indicator for if the player is a rookie, and the target is points scored or allowed in a season. A starter is defined as the player who took the most snaps at their position, filtering out key injuries. This was altered for several positions, such as the top three players being considered for wide receiver, cornerback, safety and linebacker, as well as the top two players qualifying for guard, tackle, edge and interior defender.

The coaches are the random effect, giving us an estimate for their contribution to points scored or allowed. We can then use Pythagorean wins to estimate how many games the coach would win with an average team, defined as a team scoring and allowing 348 points in a season. This was the average mark for all teams between the 2017-2021 seasons.

We will be considering only macro-level, on-field performance for these rankings, which are not opponent-adjusted. We will not be considering factors such as roster construction decisions or giving outsized weight to factors such as passing rate or fourth-down decisions.

It is important to note that using salaries as a percentage of the cap as an approximation for player talent creates issues where a particular starter is under- or overpaid. This is particularly relevant for quarterbacks who are still on their rookie contracts.

NOTE: This ranking does not consider results from prior to 2011 and does not include first-time head coaches, since success as a coordinator does not necessarily translate to success as a head coach. Thus, Josh McDaniels, Brian Daboll, Matt Eberflus, Nathaniel Hackett, Mike McDaniel and Kevin O’Connell are not included.

TIER 1: HALL OF FAME COACHES

These coaches are set to one day admire their busts in Canton. All have enjoyed success for at least a decade, won at least one Super Bowl and played in multiple conference championships. There is room for debate as to their exact ordering and the exact approximations of their effects, but their accomplishments and longevity speak for themselves.

1. BILL BELICHICK, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

(11.7-5.3 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 1/26 (+121 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 1/26 (-32 points allowed a season)

Bill Belichick is the best head coach in NFL history. Moving on…

2. JOHN HARBAUGH, BALTIMORE RAVENS

 (10.7-6.3 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 2/26 (+90 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 4/26 (-11 points allowed a season)

Harbaugh’s head coaching career includes many iterations of offenses helmed by the typically solid yet unspectacular Joe Flacco that generally lacked upper-echelon talent. Despite this, the Ravens have always fielded above-average offenses — and tremendous defenses.

3. ANDY REID, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

(10.1-6.9 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 4/26 (+77 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 17/26 (+5 points allowed a season)

One of the best offensive minds in the league for over two decades, Reid comes in at the bottom of this Hall of Fame tier. This is mostly due to his defenses, which are usually not much to complain about, but that does knock him when compared to the best of the best.

TIER 2: GOOD COACHES

Many of these coaches are either rising stars or have had comfortable amounts of success in their careers at the helm. In any given year, the teams they coach will likely be in the playoffs, although they generally either struggle on one side of the ball or simply haven’t sustained their success over time.

4. KLIFF KINGSBURY, ARIZONA CARDINALS

(10.0 – 7.0 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 3/26 (+81 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 23/26 (+12 points allowed a season)

Outside of quarterback Kyler Murray and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, Kingsbury has not had much to work with in terms of offensive talent in the desert, yet he’s still managed to make the offense hum. Unfortunately, Kingsbury has left much to be desired on the defensive side of the ball thus far.

5. PETE CARROLL, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

 (9.9 – 7.1 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 12/26 (+42 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 3/26 (-18 points allowed a season)

While Carroll’s tenure in Seattle will certainly be defined by the Legion of Boom years, it is worth appreciating that the Seahawks have managed to field solid defenses for the better part of a decade. His tenure will also be defined by the “Let Russ Cook” movement, which advocated for giving now-Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson more opportunities to shine amid Carroll’s noted reliance on the running game.

6. MATT LAFLEUR, GREEN BAY PACKERS

 (9.8 – 7.2 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 8/26 (+55 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 9/26 (-3 points allowed a season)

Despite having future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers at the helm, LaFleur has still managed to elevate the Packers’ offense while maintaining strong defenses during his entire stay in Green Bay.

7. KYLE SHANAHAN, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

 (9.8 – 7.2 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 6/26 (+64 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 16/26 (+5 points allowed a season)

Shanahan has been publicly lauded for impressive offensive outputs despite middling passers running his offense, and this is borne out in the data, as well. Unfortunately, his overall mediocre defensive outputs considering the talent at his disposal has been captured, too.

8. MIKE VRABEL, TENNESSEE TITANS

 (9.7 – 7.3 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 7/26 (+56 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 12/26 (+0.9 points scored a season)

Vrabel is at times maligned for his reliance on the running game and star running back Derrick Henry, but the results suggest that it works on the macro level. The performance of his offensive units has actually been his calling card, as he’s been a part of only average defensive results.

9. FRANK REICH, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

 (9.7 – 7.3 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 10/26 (+49 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 8/26 (-3.9 points allowed a season)

Reich has dealt with an unfortunate revolving door of passers Indianapolis but has maintained strong levels of offensive success in spite of that. His maintenance of a solid defense has also helped weather the storm of sometimes erratic play from his passers.

10. MIKE MCCARTHY, DALLAS COWBOYS

 (9.7 – 7.3 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 5/26 (+68 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 25/26 (+15 points scored a season)

While there were criticisms of McCarthy’s play calling in Green Bay — he doesn’t call plays in Dallas — he has had no issue helming prolific offenses throughout his career. His Achilles heel, however, is his seeming inability to oversee defensive performances that live up to his teams’ talent level.

11. SEAN MCVAY, LOS ANGELES RAMS

(9.6 – 7.4 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 9/26 (+55 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 15/26 (+4.3 points scored a season)

The data suggests that McVay lives up to his reputation as a fantastic offensive play-caller, as he’s overseen great offenses in his time as the Rams’ head coach.

12. BRANDON STALEY, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

(9.4 – 7.6 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 11/26 (+46 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 20/26 (+8 points scored a season)

The former defensive coordinator has done a strong job embracing analytical ideas and done a respectable job overseeing strong offensive outputs. However, for his success to continue, his defensive output will need to follow suit.

13. MIKE TOMLIN, PITTSBURGH STEELERS

 (9.3 – 7.7 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 13/26 (+25 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 5/26 (-10 points allowed a season)

If this list were to consider how well a coach manages a team off the gridiron, Tomlin would undoubtedly be in the top tier. His defenses have been consistently strong, but he suffers in these rankings due to having one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL throughout his head coach tenure lead his offense without consistently elite results.

TIER 3: AVERAGE COACHES

Some of these coaches have seen their fair share of postseason success, and Doug Pederson has won a Super Bowl. Despite this, they can still falter and fail to see above-average results on either side of the ball, which eventually shows up in the win column. This group is also saturated with early-tenure coaches who have a wide range of outcomes looking into the future.

14. NICK SIRIANNI, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

 (9.0 – 8.0 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 14/26 (+24 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 13/26 (+3 points allowed a season)

While Sirianni received deserved praise for how he adjusted to quarterback Jalen Hurts’ limitations throughout the 2021 season, his results were average in his first year as an NFL head coach.

15. DOUG PEDERSON, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

(8.9 – 8.1 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 17/26 (+16 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 10/26 (-1 points allowed a season)

Pederson’s final years in Philadelphia in some ways were a result of Carson Wentz’s fall from grace, but his subpar offensive rank here suggests he carries blame, as well. His ability to oversee good defenses, however, is a welcome sight in Jacksonville.

16. SEAN MCDERMOTT, BUFFALO BILLS

(8.9 – 8.1 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 20/26 (+12 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 7/26 (-4 points scored a season)

McDermott sticks true to his roots as a former defensive coordinator, helming strong units on that side of the ball while not always getting expected results out of his offenses based on talent level.

17. LOVIE SMITH, HOUSTON TEXANS

(8.8 – 8.2 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 18/26 (+15 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 11/26 (+0.7 points allowed a season)

Smith is perhaps the largest approximation on this list, considering he has not been the head coach of an NFL team since 2015. Based on his prior results, though, he lives up to his reputation as a defensive mind — although it remains to be seen if his Cover 2-heavy style will still hold up in today’s NFL.

18. RON RIVERA, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

(8.8 – 8.2 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 16/26 (+18 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 19/26 (+7 points allowed a season)

Despite Rivera learning as a defensive coordinator early in his coaching career, his defensive success as a head coach appears to be largely the product of his teams’ talent levels. Determining how much of a part he played in developing that talent is outside of this article’s scope.

19. KEVIN STEFANSKI, CLEVELAND BROWNS

 (8.7 – 8.3 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 15/26 (+18 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 21/26 (+10 points allowed a season)

Stefanski has overseen only middling offensive results, and his teams have underperformed on the defensive side of the ball considering their immense talent.

20. ARTHUR SMITH, ATLANTA FALCONS

 (8.7 – 8.3 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 19/26 (+13 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 18/26 (+6 points allowed a season)

While Atlanta as a whole struggled in Smith’s first season at the helm, his performance is estimated to be generally unremarkable.

TIER 4: ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT

With a single exception, these coaches have not enjoyed much success in their careers. Most of these coaches are very early in their careers, though, and do have time to turn it around. Regardless, for the most part, they have struggled immensely on at least one side of the ball.

21. TODD BOWLES, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

(8.5 – 8.5 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 22/26 (-7 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 6/26 (-7 points allowed a season)

Bowles has been one of the best defensive minds in football, and his results as a head coach back that up. Unfortunately, his teams as a head coach have struggled immensely on offense.

22. ZAC TAYLOR, CINCINNATI BENGALS

(8.4 – 8.6 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 21/26 (+7 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 24/26 (+13 points allowed a season)

By the data, it is difficult to call Taylor’s regime in Cincinnati a success despite his postseason resume. The estimate suggests that Taylor is riding off the high of the tremendous amount of talent the Bengals have amassed in recent years.

23. DAN CAMPBELL, DETROIT LIONS

 (8.1 – 8.9 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 23/26 (-8 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 22/26 (+10 points scored a season)

While Campbell is just one season into his head coaching tenure with a roster lacking talent, it is difficult to have an optimistic view of his performance. It is worth noting that quarterback Jared Goff underperforming relative to his contract may be depressing Campbell’s offensive results.

24. MATT RHULE, CAROLINA PANTHERS

 (8.0 – 9.0 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 24/26 (-15 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 14/26 (+4 points allowed a season)

Rhule has overseen some solid defensive performances during his time in Carolina, but his offensive results have been nothing less than putrid considering the Panthers’ talent.

25. DENNIS ALLEN, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

(7.8 – 9.2 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 26/26 (-48 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 2/26 (-21 points allowed a season)

The data suggests Allen is one of the best defensive minds in football, making New Orleans’ decision to promote him internally a sensible one. However, his offensive results in Oakland from 2012-2014 aren’t cause for much optimism.

26. ROBERT SALEH, NEW YORK JETS

 (7.6 – 9.4 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 25/26 (-18 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 26/26 (+18 points allowed a season)

Saleh’s Jets did struggle in his first season as a head coach, but injuries and a roster lacking in talent across the board mean that his impact estimate is likely lower than it should be.

We are surprised to see Sean McVay down at #11 (last in the NFC West and behind Mike McCarthy!).

Sean McDermott of the Bills at #16?

And, since this looks back at past performance, we wish they would have put Sean Payton on the list.

2023 DRAFT

Seth Walder of ESPN.com tells us who the 10 worst teams in the NFL will be this year – and thus the teams with the first 10 picks.  We haven’t looked yet but think Atlanta Houston and Carolina will be on the list.  Jacksonville, Detroit and the Jets are always good bets, probably Chicago.  Who else?

We’re almost a year from the 2023 NFL draft, and 285 games lie ahead that will determine the draft order. Anything can happen. We won’t know what the top 10 will look like until the end of Week 18 this season, and even then, things can change with pre-draft trades up or down the board.

Even so, we projected how the draft order might play out in those first 10 picks using our ESPN Football Power Index, which gives each team’s expected draft slot. An analytics writer pulls back the curtain on the numbers to explain why each team is projected to have an early selection, while our NFL Nation reporters dive in on how each of the teams can outperform these expectations and avoid a disappointing season.

Which teams are destined for a top draft pick? Where might the Jaguars — who have held the No. 1 pick in each of the past two years — land? And which teams could surprise in 2022? Let’s take a closer look at teams currently headed toward another early Round 1 selection.

1. New York Jets

Chance at No. 1 pick: 13.6%

Chance at top 10: 68.4%

Why they are here: You can see the upside with the Jets. They have Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis and Elijah Moore at receiver. Ahmad Gardner and D.J. Reed are set to lock down the cornerback spots. Carl Lawson is back at edge rusher. And most importantly, they have a potential star in second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. But none of that — most importantly Wilson — is guaranteed to pay off. ESPN’s FPI is betting that most of it likely won’t. — Walder

How they outperform this projection: Between free agency and the draft, the Jets added playmaking potential on both sides of the ball, most notably with Wilson, Gardner, Reed, running back Breece Hall and safety Jordan Whitehead. Improved team speed should allow them to create game-changing plays, which were in short supply in 2021. The Jets ranked 31st in takeaways and 20th in explosive plays on offense (runs of 10-plus yards or passes of 20-plus yards). — Rich Cimini

2. Chicago Bears

Chance at No. 1 pick: 13.7%

Chance at top 10: 67.9%

Meet the 2023 NFL draft class: No. 1 pick predictions, top QBs and under-the-radar prospects

35dJordan Reid and Matt Miller

Why they are here: The Bears are like the Jets but with less talent surrounding their quarterback. And like the Jets’ Wilson, Justin Fields also needs to take a major step forward in his second season after a disappointing rookie campaign. Additionally, Chicago has a new coaching staff, which adds a bit more uncertainty to its forecast. But in this case, that’s a good thing. — Walder

How they outperform this projection: The Bears have more than $20 million in remaining cap space and could use those resources to bring in a veteran offensive lineman (perhaps someone to play right guard) or another wide receiver. Chicago’s offense should put Fields in a better position to succeed by playing to his strengths, but growth from the quarterback won’t necessarily come unless what’s around him improves. If the Bears can add a couple of players before the start of the season, it will be money well spent as they continue to build for the future. — Courtney Cronin

3. Houston Texans

Chance at No. 1 pick: 11.4%

Chance at top 10: 64.1%

Why they are here: The roster remains barren on defense, and while quarterback Davis Mills exceeded low expectations as a rookie, it’s fair to classify Houston’s short-term situation at quarterback as weak. Plus, the Texans face a fairly difficult schedule. — Walder

How they outperform this projection: Houston’s defense already took a step forward last season under then-defensive coordinator Lovie Smith, and he could be the reason the Texans now outperform expectations this season. The Texans promoted Smith to head coach, and the team used the No. 3 overall pick on cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. It’s no secret Smith preaches the importance of takeaways in the defensive backs room, and adding a potential star at cornerback could help immensely. — Sarah Barshop

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Chance at No. 1 pick: 9.3%

Chance at top 10: 60.0%

Why they are here: Our FPI is a little more bullish on Trevor Lawrence’s future than that of Wilson, Fields, Mills or Trey Lance (San Francisco). But 2021 was a disappointment for Jacksonville’s quarterback, and the model believes Lawrence will be a below-average signal-caller again this season. And even after a free-agent spending spree, the rest of the roster is missing high-end stars. — Walder

How they outperform this projection: Just having a normal, functioning coaching staff could make a significant difference. It’s hard to know exactly how much the dysfunction around coach Urban Meyer impacted the team, but it certainly wasn’t good for Lawrence. Adding playmakers Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram should increase the output of an offense that averaged just 13.8 points per game last season. And the defense added three starters in free agency and two more in the draft, highlighted by No. 1 pick Travon Walker. Only two starters remain from the 2020 defense that finished last in the league. — Michael DiRocco

5. Atlanta Falcons

Chance at No. 1 pick: 8.6%

Chance at top 10: 56.6%

Why they are here: After two years without a start, ESPN’s FPI assumes quarterback Marcus Mariota is going to be a drag on the Atlanta offense. That’s fair. But there’s also not much to drag down. Tight end Kyle Pitts is the only real established star on that side of the ball. There’s more to like on defense with cornerback A.J. Terrell and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett leading the way, but having what our FPI expects will be the worst offense in football is too much to overcome. — Walder

How they outperform this projection: The Falcons have one of the most questionable quarterback situations in the league, with veteran Mariota or rookie Desmond Ridder set to start. But if rookies Drake London (wide receiver) and Tyler Allgeier (running back) play well, it could open things up for second-year coach Arthur Smith’s playcalling and allow him to innovate more on offense. Add in the potential for a stronger pass rush — again, the Falcons will need rookie edge rushers Arnold Ebiketie and DeAngelo Malone to at least play up to expectations — and Atlanta could have the chance to overacheive. — Michael Rothstein

6. Pittsburgh Steelers

Chance at No. 1 pick: 6.5%

Chance at top 10: 53.5%

Why they are here: Our FPI model considers the T.J. Watt-led Steelers defense to be the fifth best in the league, but a good defense can take you only so far. The game swings on offense, and none of the options at quarterback — Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett or Mason Rudolph — are likely to be a high performer in 2022. ESPN’s FPI considers the first two to be the better choices and roughly equivalent in the short term. — Walder

How they outperform this projection: Coach Mike Tomlin doesn’t do losing seasons. In 15 seasons as the Steelers’ head coach, Tomlin has never had one. Remember when Ben Roethlisberger went down for the year, and he started Rudolph and Devlin Hodges under center? Yeah, he didn’t lose then, either. It won’t be a pretty season in Pittsburgh by any means, but don’t count a Tomlin-led squad out — especially when he has the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and an up-and-coming star in running back Najee Harris on his roster. — Brooke Pryor

7. Carolina Panthers

Chance at No. 1 pick: 5.5%

Chance at top 10: 48.0%

Why they are here: There’s some sparsely scattered talent on the roster — namely Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore on offense, and Brian Burns and Jeremy Chinn on defense — but not enough to make up for the fact that neither Sam Darnold nor Matt Corral offer much short-term hope. — Walder

How they outperform this projection: Quarterback aside, the Panthers significantly strengthened their roster in free agency and the draft. They boosted their coaching staff by more than doubling the NFL experience with an overhaul that includes adding two former head coaches in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo and secondary coach Steve Wilks. If McCaffrey — who has missed 23 of the team’s past 33 games — can stay healthy, and the rebuilt offensive line can provide protection, Carolina can’t help but be better regardless of whether it’s Darnold, rookie Corral or somebody else playing quarterback. — David Newton

8. Detroit Lions

Chance at No. 1 pick: 4.1%

Chance at top 10: 42.0%

Why they are here: ESPN’s FPI is bullish on the Lions, which is why they only sneak onto this list after picking at No. 2 this year. Jared Goff isn’t great, but on average, the model believes he’ll be better than most of the first- or second-year quarterbacks. That buoys Detroit in the rankings and projections relative to many of the other teams on this list. But this is all about the potential to be decent offensively; our FPI projects Detroit to have the league’s second-worst defense. — Walder

How they outperform this projection: The Lions’ coaching staff will have more experience. At times, it felt as though head coach Dan Campbell was still learning how to handle certain in-game situations during the 2021 season, which included him taking over playcalling responsibilities from former offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn in Week 10. But now Detroit has a new offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson, and it added better offensive players around Goff, such as wide receiver DJ Chark Jr. — Eric Woodyard

9. Seattle Seahawks

Chance at No. 1 pick: 3.4%

Chance at top 10: 42.2%

Why they are here: The projections are down on Drew Lock — he’s sandwiched between Sam Darnold and Malik Willis in the model’s quarterback rankings — and that’s a tough starting place and a huge downgrade from Russell Wilson, to state the obvious. Seattle has a strong skill position group, though, which is worth something. — Walder

How they outperform this projection: Despite how it might have looked when they traded Wilson and cut Bobby Wagner, the Seahawks aren’t in a full-fledged rebuild. They still have a competitive roster outside of what is one of the NFL’s iffiest quarterback rooms. It’s not unreasonable to think a revamped defense — with its new scheme and some younger, faster players — could carry enough of the load for Seattle to get to seven wins with below-average quarterback play from either Lock or Geno Smith. — Brady Henderson

10. New York Giants

Chance at No. 1 pick: 2.8%

Chance at top 10: 37.7%

Why they are here: Daniel Jones has been disappointing for a sixth-overall pick, but he has upside under center. There’s potential in the offensive line and wide receiver groups, and with a new offensive-minded head coach, the Giants should improve from their 30th-ranked offensive efficiency last season. But still, ESPN’s FPI believes this is a team that will be below average (23rd on offense, 27th on defense) on both sides of the ball. — Walder

How they outperform this projection: The Giants’ offense under Brian Daboll could surely outperform expectations. It’s not as if they don’t have any talent, with Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney among the offensive stars. Plus, the Giants have invested in a pair of top-10 tackles. It’s not outrageous to think Jones can take a significant step forward under Daboll in this offense, and that the Giants can win despite their struggles in recent seasons. — Jordan Raanan

So the seven we guessed at the top, plus Seattle, Pittsburgh and the Giants.

Of the other 22 teams, who is the biggest somewhat plausible surprise?  The Patriots?  The Cowboys?