AROUND THE NFL

Daily Briefing

Two of the NFL’s biggest brands will square off in Canton to start 2020.

The 2020 Hall of Fame Game will feature a classic matchup between two of the NFL’s most tradition-rich clubs.

It was announced Tuesday on NFL Network’s Good Morning Football that the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers will kick off the preseason on Thursday, Aug. 6 at 8 p.m. ET in Canton, Ohio, at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium, adjacent to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

The selection of the Cowboys and Steelers makes perfect sense with the two storied franchises sporting several members of the expanded Hall of Fame class this season.

Former Steelers coach Bill Cowher and safety Troy Polamalu along with former Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson will be enshrined into the Hall of Fame on Saturday, Aug. 8, as members of the Centennial Class of 2020.

Steve Atwater, Isaac Bruce, Steve Hutchinson, Edgerrin James, Steve Sabol, Paul Tagliabue and George Young will also be enshrined into the HOF class during the ceremony Aug. 8.

The Cowboys and Steelers have each played in six Hall of Fame matchups in their histories, but never faced each other in the HOF Game. Dallas (3-3) most recently played in the game in 2017, with the Steelers (3-3) playing in 2015.

The DB is old enough to remember when the teams played in the Hall of Fame Game on a schedule that gave each franchise an equal number of opportunities on a rotation more than 10 years in advance.  Now the Cowboys play twice in four years.

– – –

Will overtime return to 15 minutes?  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

For the last three seasons, overtime in the NFL regular season has lasted a maximum of 10 minutes. That could change this year.

The NFL owners will consider at the upcoming league meeting a rule change that would make overtime 15 minutes again.

The shorter overtime has led to some complaints that it simply doesn’t give the teams enough time: If the team that receives the overtime kickoff has a long drive to start the overtime but doesn’t score a touchdown to win the game, the team that kicked off has very little time left.

When the league shortened overtime it cited player safety as the reason, and it’s rare for the NFL to reverse a player safety rule. So it appears unlikely that the proposal will pass.

And this proposal for an eighth official in the booth:

The NFL announced seven proposed rules changes by teams on Tuesday and two of them have to do with the makeup of the officiating crew.

Both proposals were made by the Ravens and Chargers and the first calls for a “booth umpire” to be an eighth member of the officiating crew. The other calls for the addition of a senior technology advisor to the referee to assist the crew.

The specific nature of the positions aren’t laid out in the proposal, but both seek to amend Rule 19, Section 2 of the league rulebook. That rule states that the replay official and designated members of the officiating department at the league office “may consult with the on-field officials to provide information on the correct application of playing rules.”

The rules involved include correct application of penalty yards, proper down and corrections to the game clock. Members of the officiating department may also weigh in on whether an on-field penalty is flagrant enough to call for a disqualification.

None of those would cover calling penalties or picking up flags thrown in error, but the “booth umpire” sounds something like the sky judge idea that’s kicked around as an extra set of eyes to watch for things that officials on the field may not be able to see.

More information on these proposals, as well as ones from the Competition Committee, will come at the league meetings that are scheduled for later this month in Palm Beach.

The XFL has an idea the DB liked – an extra on-field official whose sole duty is the quick and accurate spotting of the ball.  He also has an extra ball in his possession that doesn’t have to be slung in from the sidelines.

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA

QB KYLE ALLEN is back with the Panthers on a one-year deal.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

The Carolina Panthers locked down a quarterback.

No, not Cam Newton.

The team announced Tuesday it signed Kyle Allen, who was set to become an exclusive rights free agent, to a one-year contract.

NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reports the deal is for $585,000.

Allen started 12 games in 2019 after Newton went out with a foot injury that iced the former NFL MVP’s season after two games.

The 24-year-old Allen completed 62 percent of 489 attempts for 3,322 yards at 6.8 yards per attempt, added 17 touchdowns and 16 interceptions for an 80.0 passer rating, and took 46 sacks in 13 appearances.

After the Panthers won four straight games last season in Allen’s first four starts, the wheels came off for the club and quarterback. Allen struggled down the stretch behind a rickety offensive line as defenses took away his initial reads, and he airmailed numerous deep shots.

Rookie Will Grier made the final two starts of the season for the Panthers, who lost eight straight games to close the campaign.

With a new coaching staff in Carolina under Matt Rhule, questions abound about the quarterback position. Newton’s future has been the subject of swirling rumors all offseason, which Rhule attempted to combat during the NFL Scouting Combine, saying, “I absolutely want Cam here.”

First, Newton needs to get healthy after missing 16 games the past two seasons and dealing with multiple injuries to his shoulder and foot.

With the starting gig yet to be sorted out, pending Newton’s rehab, the backup situation in Carolina with Allen and Grier appears to be set.

NFC WEST

LOS ANGELES RAMS

A leaked Rams logo?  Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com:

At first glance, the logo that leaked over the weekend seems like an alternate Los Angeles Chargers logo.

But no, the logo on the hat that made its rounds on the internet this weekend is actually the Los Angeles Rams’ new logo. The Rams had been teasing a logo redesign on social media, and apparently this is it:

@CharlesRobinson

So this #Rams new logo hat that leaked on Reddit is legitimate. That’s the new logo. Thoughts?

Ah, yes, if you look hard enough you can see it’s the familiar Rams horn and not a bolt. Still.

Assuming this logo is legit, the initial reviews didn’t go over well. Of course, it’s 2020 on social media and everyone hates everything new, so maybe it’ll just take people a while to get used to it.

@EricStangel

The new Rams logo looks like it’s from a tv show about pro football and they didn’t have rights from the NFL

It’ll take some time. The Rams’ look has become fairly iconic through the years. They were the first NFL team with a design on their helmets, when Rams halfback Fred Gehrke painted the horns on the team’s plain helmets before the 1948 season. A uniform redesign, in conjunction with the team moving into its new stadium this season, was announced a couple months ago.

This just probably isn’t the first impression the team wanted to make.

Too much LA, not enough horn?

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

The Ravens seem to be trying to signal a market for QB ROBERT GRIFFIN III.  Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com:

When 2020 NFL free agency kicks off on March 18, there may very well be an overabundance of quarterbacks on the market, with too many available big names and too little open jobs around the league.

That’s not stopping teams from inquiring about the availability of a name who’s not set to hit free agency, however. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported Tuesday that Baltimore Ravens backup Robert Griffin III has been the subject of trade talks in advance of the new league year.

Griffin is due $2.5 million in 2020, the final season of his two-year contract with the team, and the Ravens have only 2019 sixth-round draft pick Trace McSorley behind MVP Lamar Jackson on the QB depth chart, so it’s unlikely Baltimore is actively trying to move the veteran. It could be that teams are simply checking on Griffin’s availability as a potential backup, especially with a couple of clubs reportedly already set to pursue other notable No. 2 candidates — like Case Keenum and Chase Daniels — in free agency.

The 30-year-old Griffin has spent the last two seasons with the Ravens, initially serving as the No. 3 QB behind Jackson and Joe Flacco in 2018. Drafted second overall by the Washington Redskins back in 2012, he started his first game in three years to close Baltimore’s 2019 campaign, helping the Ravens clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed while filling in for a resting Jackson.

Griffin hasn’t been a full-time starter since the start of 2016, his first and only season with the Cleveland Browns, and is perhaps best known for his polarizing four-year career in Washington, where he went to the Pro Bowl as a rookie before injuries helped usher Kirk Cousins into his job. In two years with the Ravens, he’s appeared in 10 games, throwing for 246 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions while also rushing for 70 yards.

CLEVELAND

The Browns have released LB CHRISTIAN KIRKSEY whose career was derailed by a pectoral injury last year.  Jake Trotter of ESPN.com:

The Cleveland Browns released veteran linebacker Christian Kirksey on Tuesday.

The Browns tried to renegotiate Kirksey’s contract but released him after the sides couldn’t come to an agreement, a source told ESPN. He was due to make $7.75 million in base salary this season, and $8.25 million in 2021. Releasing him will save the Browns roughly $6.58 million in cap savings this offseason.

Kirksey wrote in a tweet that he would be “forever grateful” for his time with the Browns.

Christian Kirksey

@Kirko58

FOREVER GRATEFUL! Thank you Cleveland for the amazing years! Thank you to the entire organization, my teammates, the Haslems for giving me an opportunity of a lifetime and most of all thank you to the city of Cleveland for accepting me as their own! Forever Love, Kirkoland Out!

Kirksey tore his pectoral muscle in Week 2 last year against the New York Jets and was placed on injured reserve for the rest of the season. Rookie Mack Wilson started for Kirksey in Cleveland’s final 14 games.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

Here is how Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com sees the signing of CB JOSH NORMAN:

The deal: One year, $6 million

Grade: B-

Unplayable for stretches last season, Norman struggled throughout his time in Washington and hasn’t been an above-average corner since his breakout season with the Panthers in 2015. His defensive coordinator there was current Bills coach Sean McDermott, and while Norman’s breakup with Carolina wasn’t pretty, the Bills are unsurprisingly betting that their culture and coaching will be able to unlock something closer to the Norman who was a first-team All-Pro that season.

Incentives can get this deal up to $8 million, but the guarantee number could move this grade around. Already at age 32, there’s a chance that Norman is toast and doesn’t make the Buffalo roster out of camp, which would be a lot easier to swallow on a $1 million guarantee than it would on something closer to the full $6 million. Assuming the true guarantee comes in somewhere between those two figures, Norman is a very reasonable flier for general manager Brandon Beane to take on a one-year deal. Norman will compete with Levi Wallace for the starting job on the outside across from superstar corner Tre’Davious White.

NEW ENGLAND

Charles Robinson of YahooSports.com doesn’t like the way things seem to be playing out in New England.

When the story dropped this week about Tom Brady’s latest Los Angeles-related venture, it thumped into the free agency grist mill like a tactically lobbed hand grenade — just six days from the legal tampering window for NFL teams and right into the center of see-sawing rumors about the future plans of the iconic New England Patriots quarterback.

The timing, as with so many recent incidents that have stoked Brady speculation, was impeccable and impossibly coincidental.

The 199 Productions announcement, which rolled out in the Hollywood-centric media outlet Deadline, had a familiar and very planned residue to it. Just days from his prospective freedom as a football player, Brady posted an image of the story on his Instagram, giving a little wink toward Los Angeles in the middle of a coming courtship that will most certainly involve the Chargers. So Brady is going into the content business and it’s going to have a Hollywood orbit. What a shocking development to learn on the doorstep of Brady’s pending free agency (insert eye-roll).

And lest we forget, this comes a little over a week after Brady and Patriots wideout Julian Edelman were conveniently “caught” (in the middle of a packed Syracuse basketball crowd) FaceTiming with Tennessee Titans coach Mike Vrabel. The same Vrabel who is both a close friend of Brady and another highly speculated free agent suitor in the coming days.

We can see these kinds of things as turns of chance, or we can see them as extensions of a player who seems to say a lot without ever using words. The guy who structured his last contract to void his way to free agency, then subsequently put his $39 million house on the market. The guy who had little to say about the Patriots’ messy ending with wideout Antonio Brown, then proceeded to publicly cheerlead for Brown on social media for months (all while New England’s passing offense was coming apart at the seams). And going back to March of 2018, the guy who rarely expressed his football frustrations as succinctly as his wife Gisele Bündchen did in the finale of the “Tom vs. Time” documentary, when she made a statement that seems to still echo: “These last two years have been very challenging for him in so many ways. And I think he just wants — he tells me, ‘I love it so much and I just want to go to work and feel appreciated and have fun.’”

Tom Brady figures out a way to say a lot. Sometimes by his own actions and sometimes by allowing the actions of people around him to stand as a message. And that’s part of the problem that’s happening now. Because when you speak to sources that have relationships with Brady and Bill Belichick, it’s not hard to see where this impasse is coming from.

When it comes to committing to each other in 2020 and beyond, the communication between Brady and Belichick is slamming into a forcefield of passive aggression. This is why so much of the insight about the pair in the past month has circled on how they’re speaking — or not speaking — to each other.

Belichick is treating this like a business decision and looking at Brady like a guy who asked for this situation. And Brady is looking back and wanting something beyond respect and a pay bump. Maybe it’s to hear Belichick say he wants or needs Brady. Maybe it’s just to feel some sense of appreciation that isn’t always obvious. Or maybe it’s just to feel like Belichick is actually hearing Brady at all.

To accomplish that, you have to actually speak to each other with a willingness to say clearly how you feel and what you want. It can’t be one guy building the bridge to communicate while the other watches. If they want to continue to work together, they both have to start on their opposing shores and build their half of the bridge toward each other.

That means Tom Brady needs to be willing to articulate to Belichick precisely what he wants — contractually, emotionally, psychologically, whatever. If he needs $30 million a year, say it. If he wants Belichick to make some kind of emotional purchase into who Brady is as a person, lay it out.

Conversely, Belichick has to be willing to hear Brady and explain clearly what he’s willing to do or not do. If it’s just about the economics of football and being his coach, that has to be put into words. If Brady is nothing but a spoke on a wheel, then make it clear and be done with it.

If Brady and the Patriots are going to stay together, what can’t happen is the scenario playing out right now. The one where neither side is really saying anything directly or clearly to the other, while both wait for some kind of extended hand of diplomacy that isn’t coming. All while Belichick shrugs and Brady keeps telegraphing the parts of his life that align in locales outside of Massachusetts.

If that’s the permanent track here — if they’re stuck in this zone of passive-aggressive staring-but-saying-nothing — then Brady is going to end up entering free agency. And there will be teams willing to whisper all the sweet nothings that Belichick won’t. They’ll also pay more money than the Patriots, too, with every day going forward standing as Tom Brady appreciation day.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Chargers will do that. Maybe the Titans and San Francisco 49ers would be on board with it, too. Make no mistake, one of those four teams — or maybe all of them — are positioned to step in between Brady and Belichick. If the Patriots weren’t in serious peril of having this dynamic and historic pairing come to an end a few weeks ago, the franchise is there now. It’s to the point where everyone involved needs to say whatever is still meaningful, or this is going to end in the worst way possible.

In unimaginable and indefensible silence.

THIS AND THAT

THE NFLPA AND THE DEAL

Browns C JC TRETTER, who has given a lot of thought to the pending CBA without exactly expressing an opinion in favor or against, is the new president of the NFLPA.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

The National Football League Players Association officially has a new president.

The NFLPA announced Cleveland Browns center JC Tretter was elected by the board of player representatives as the new president.

In addition to Tretter and Falcons center Alex Mack as treasurer, the league announced the rest of executive committee: Buccaneers linebacker Sam Acho, Bills linebacker Lorenzo Alexander, Jaguars defensive end Calais Campbell, Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins, Saints punter Thomas Morstead, cornerback Richard Sherman, Giants defensive back Michael Thomas, Patriots tight end Ben Watson and Titans linebacker Wesley Woodyard.

Russell Okung is no longer on the committee along with Zak DeOssie and Adam Vinatieri, with Woodyard, Jenkins and Campbell replacing them.

A fourth-round pick in 2013, Tretter has been a Browns starter the past three seasons after spending the first four years of his career in Green Bay.

The NFLPA voted to replace sitting president Eric Winston, who was not up for re-election after not playing in 2019.

A vote count for Tretter’s election was not announced. The section required a majority vote by all board members in the room.

Before the selection, Tretter, who holds a degree in labor relations from Cornell, attempted to help educate his fellow players on several of the nuances of the potential new collective bargaining agreement, for which voting is ongoing.

Tretter’s stance on the CBA proposal is not known, NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo added.

@TomPelissero

New NFLPA president J.C. Tretter’s platform didn’t focus on his personal views of the proposed CBA that players are voting on, I’m told.  Rather, Tretter focused on unity and moving forward either way — with a deal through 2030, or a new fight ahead.

Acho and Thomas were also candidates to become the next NFLPA president. Okung withdrew his name from consideration after filing an unfair labor practice charge with the National Labor Relations Board on Monday.

The decision to elect Tretter came as players continue to vote on a potential new CBA. The NFLPA extended the voting window to Saturday at 11:59 p.m. ET.

This from Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

The annual meetings of the NFL Players Association can be attended by any players. And players who are there are wondering why their higher-profile colleagues aren’t.

Per a source with knowledge of the dynamics of the meetings, some players are asking, “Where are the stars?” More specifically, they want to know the whereabouts of the men with big names and big platforms who have used social media to encourage other players to reject the proposed CBA.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay’s duly-elected player representative, isn’t there. J.J. Watt, the first superstar to reject the deal (without details) also isn’t there. Ditto for Russell Wilson, who has uncharacteristically taken a stand on the issue.

That said, Maurkice and Mike Pouncey have drawn plenty of praising for showing up. Both strongly oppose the CBA, and both have embraced the process. They strongly oppose the CBA, and they’re doing what they can to talk to their fellow players about it.

And that’s how it should be. The social-media drive-by may influence people, but it’s no substitute for jumping into the fray and talking through the tough issues, no matter how uncomfortable it may be for those who prefer to avoid confrontations.

BROADCAST NEWS

Andrew Marchand of the New York Post says that NBC has declined to release Al Michaels to ESPN Disney.

NBC Sports has declined ESPN’s initial request to engage in trade talks to acquire Al Michaels, according to sources.

“We look forward to Al completing his contract and calling ‘Sunday Night Football’ games on NBC,” Greg Hughes, an NBC Sports spokesman, told The Post.

ESPN declined comment.

ESPN had put Michaels, 75, atop its list for a potential dream “Monday Night Football” booth with Peyton Manning. Michaels has two years remaining on his contract to call “Sunday Night Football,” and Mike Tirico is already set to take over at that time.

Tirico may call more games over the next two seasons and is the new face of NBC, which is why there could be a potential path if NBC/Comcast executives change their minds and Michaels wanted to explore a move.

Though NBC Sports executives have relayed the message to their ESPN counterparts, it can’t be ruled out that the topic could be revisited.

When Michaels was last traded 14 years ago in a deal involving Oswald The Lucky Rabbit, it took months to complete.

Meanwhile, ESPN has begun talks with Manning in hopes of signing him with or without Michaels, according to sources. Manning — who since retiring from playing has spent part of his time turning down networks — has not fully indicated yet if he wants to finally be a broadcaster.

ESPN has moved to Manning after not having the opportunity to offer Tony Romo a 10-year, $140 million contract as CBS trumped it by signing Romo for $180 million over a decade.

ESPN has not yet informed Joe Tessitore or Booger McFarland that they will not return to “Monday Night Football.”

Though Tessitore and/or McFarland are not out yet, ESPN has formed several plans as it tries to figure out its Monday night booth. The Post previously reported ESPN’s interest in Philip Rivers. Rivers has said he intends to continue playing. ESPN passed on Kurt Warner for Jason Witten two years ago, but Warner is a name that can’t be ruled out.

For play-by-play, ESPN could try to look outside its ranks with CBS’ Ian Eagle or Fox’s Kevin Burkhardt. Both are under contract, but are No. 2s on their networks’ NFL play-by-play depth charts, so there might be a more amenable compensation scenario as “Monday Night” could be looked upon as a promotion. Kevin Harlan, who is CBS’ No. 3 on the NFL and calls Monday night games for Westwood One radio, could also be considered.

Internally, ESPN has toyed with the idea of a booth with Steve Levy, Louis Riddick and Brian Griese, according to sources. The trio did the back end of the “Monday Night” doubleheader last year. ESPN is hesitant to move Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit from the college game, though it can’t be entirely ruled out.

Internally, Steve Young would fit the mold of a legendary quarterback that ESPN has prioritized, but he has never shown an inclination to call games.

2020 DRAFT

The compensatory picks are out, and New England did well.  Jeremy Bergman of NFL.com:

With under seven weeks until the 2020 NFL Draft, 15 teams were awarded compensatory selections on Tuesday.

The NFL announced that 32 compensatory choices were awarded to 15 clubs. The New England Patriots led all teams with four comp picks, including two in the third round (Nos. 98 and 100). New England will have 14 total picks in the 2020 draft.

The Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks each boast three compensatory selections. Houston earned the first comp pick of the 2020 draft (No. 97).

New England lost seven compensatory free agents during the 2019 offseason, including Trent Brown, Trey Flowers and Chris Hogan, and gained just one (Brandon Bolden).

Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the NFL Management Council. Not every free agent lost or signed by a club is covered by this formula. No club may receive more than four compensatory picks in any one year. If a club qualifies for more than four compensatory picks after offsetting each CFA lost by each CFA gained of an equal or higher value, the four highest remaining selections will be awarded to the club.

Here is the full list of compensatory picks allotted to teams ahead of the 2020 NFL Draft:

Round 3

97. Houston Texans

98. New England Patriots

99. New York Giants

100. New England Patriots

101. Seattle Seahawks

102. Pittsburgh Steelers

103. Philadelphia Eagles

104. Los Angeles Rams

105. Minnesota Vikings

106. Baltimore Ravens

Round 4

139. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

140. Chicago Bears

141. Miami Dolphins

142. Washington Redskins

143. Baltimore Ravens

144. Seattle Seahawks

145. Philadelphia Eagles

146. Philadelphia Eagles

Round 5

178. Denver Broncos

179. Dallas Cowboys

Round 6

212. New England Patriots

213. New England Patriots

214. Seattle Seahawks

Round 7

247. New York Giants

248. Houston Texans

249. Minnesota Vikings

250. Houston Texans

251. Miami Dolphins

252. Denver Broncos

253. Minnesota Vikings

254. Denver Broncos

255. New York Giants

Bergman also came up with a list of the top 10 compensatory picks of the last decade:

10) Justin Simmons, S, Broncos

2016 NFL Draft: Round 3, Pick No. 98

9) Kurt Coleman, S, Eagles/Vikings/Chiefs/Panthers/Saints/Bills

2010 NFL Draft: Round 7, Pick No. 244

8) Malcolm Smith, LB, Seahawks/Raiders/49ers/Jaguars/Cowboys

2011 NFL Draft: Round 7, Pick 242

7) Blake Martinez, LB, Packers

2016 NFL Draft: Round 4, Pick No. 131

6) Marlon Mack, RB, Colts

2017 NFL Draft: Round 4, Pick No. 143

5) James Conner, RB, Steelers

2017 NFL Draft: Round 3, Pick No. 105

4) Aaron Jones, RB, Packers

2017 NFL Draft: Round 5, Pick No. 182

3) Kyle Juszczyk, RB, Ravens/49ers

2013 NFL Draft: Round 4, Pick No. 130

2) Mike Daniels, DT, Packers/Lions

2012 NFL Draft: Round 4, Pick No. 132

1) Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys

2016 NFL Draft: Round 4, Pick No. 135

– – –

Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com tells us what teams would do if they drafted based on analytics, her analytics to be precise:

Welcome to my first official Round 1 simulation of the 2020 draft season! My analytics-based mock is based solely on a contextual, data-driven model that aims to do one thing: maximize each team’s potential to win as many games as possible in 2020. So, before you read any further, take note:

I am NOT attempting to predict or divine what teams will ACTUALLY DO on draft day.

Now, we’re starting the process off a little earlier this year than last, when my one and only mock dropped in early April. So, for this particular file, the model considered current rosters and the overall market of potential free agents. How exactly? Well, here’s how my mock works …

I use my draft prospect model, explained at the top of the article linked here, to create a numerical value for each player. These ratings can be compared across years. Then I use my NFL model, which considers the market of potential free agents at each position, to create projected win-contribution metrics by player, position group and side of the ball. These get added up to forecast win totals for the season. (An example of these metrics for WRs can be found in the article linked here.) The results quantify strengths and weaknesses of current NFL rosters. My model also factors in as many known elements of coaching philosophies (of the current staffs) as possible, and of the 2020 opponents. Then my model “selects” the draft prospect that would yield the highest win total for each team in the coming season.

Here’s the part that’s extra: I have projections and results for all teams and the draft prospects they selected over the past 15 seasons. I examine each season’s on-field results, objectively analyzing what happened while identifying the trends and strategies that led to success or failure. I also ask coaches, front office executives and even players to help me understand why results occurred. These subjective inputs help shape the results, meaning the model gets “smarter” each season.

Lastly, there are a lot of real-life efficiencies that could be realized via draft-pick trades. I can’t help myself but to note them in certain cases. Still, for the sake of this particular mock, there are no trades considered. If I worked for an individual team, an analysis like this could aid in creating a strategy for identifying potential trade partners, as well as vulnerable spots where other teams are most likely to scoop up particular players.

And finally, one last last thing: I will be supplying another mock draft after the free agency frenzy, so stay tuned!

1 – CINCINNATI

Chase Young – Edge

School: Ohio State | Year: Junior

Due to multiple positional areas of concern, my models suggest that the fastest way for the Bengals to improve their win total in 2020 is to leverage a rich quarterback market in free agency and take the highest-rated player in the draft. Conventional statistics show that the defense allowed 6.1 yards per play last season (tied for dead last) and forced just 16 takeaways (tied for third-fewest). In terms of pressure, Cincy logged 31 sacks (tied for 26th), and only two teams ranked worse in percentage of passing plays where a defender got within a 5-foot halo of an opposing quarterback, with a disruption rate of just 19 percent. In order for presumptive No. 1 pick Joe Burrow to add more wins than Young next season, the Bengals would have to significantly upgrade their O-line and address D-line woes, because a good defense is also a quarterback’s best friend.

2 – WASHINGTON

Isaiah Simmons – LB/S

School: Clemson | Year: Junior (RS)

To say that my model rates Simmons highly is a big understatement. Why? Because of his exceptional results in a wide range of situations. Simmons’ versatile resume includes meaningful reps as a slot corner, safety, off-ball linebacker and edge defender, as well as some snaps as an outside corner. The Clemson product’s 23 pressures on 70 pass rushes nets to a 32.9 percent pressure rate (highest in FBS last season, according to Pro Football Focus) and his 56.5 passer rating allowed in coverage was the best in the ACC amongst safeties (with at least 25 targets, per PFF). My models say Simmons would help Washington the most in terms of wins added in 2020. However, on some other teams, his win-share impact is even higher, meaning this could be an efficient trade target.

3 – DETROIT

Derrick Brown – DT

School: Auburn | Year: Senior

The Lions’ defensive front was often injured and the strategy for piecing together free agents only created the second-lowest disruption percentage (18.1) on passing plays last season. Under the assumption that high-priced edge rusher Trey Flowers will be healthy in 2020, it’d make sense to add an interior D-line presence like Brown, who projects to have an immediate impact against both the pass and run. His 35 QB pressures at Auburn last season represented the 14th-highest total among interior DL in the FBS, per Pro Football Focus.

4 – NY GIANTS

Tristan Wirfs – OT

School: Iowa | Year: Junior

My model slots Wirfs as a right tackle on the Giants’ roster, though he projects well on either side of the line (despite more college reps as an RT than LT). What stands out and drives his selection as my model’s highest-rated offensive lineman? Wirfs combines a high probability of stopping edge pressure on passing downs and creating running-lane space on rushing downs from Day 1.

5 – MIAMI

Joe Burrow – QB

School: LSU | Year: Senior (RS)

Burrow’s film and quant profile is a ridiculous display of efficiency: most touchdown passes against the blitz last season (25) … most TDs on deep passes (26) … most TDs when targeting the slot (29). But my favorite note, in terms of predictive help in the context of the Dolphins? When under pressure, he averaged 11.7 yards per attempt and posted a 17:1 TD-to-INT ratio — both tops in the FBS, per Pro Football Focus.

6 – LA CHARGERS

Tua Tagovailoa – QB

School: Alabama | Year: Junior

Tagovailoa’s 2019 resume shows quick-pass mastery (11.4 yards per attempt on throws made in under 2.5 seconds, the best figure in the FBS) and a 15:0 TD-to-INT ratio on play-action passes (also tops in the FBS). Not to mention, over the past two seasons, he ranks first in the FBS in deep-passing efficiency (19.8 yards per attempt on throws of 20-plus air yards). The potential to optimize the use of Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler stands out, too — pairing those two with this particular QB projects VERY well.

7 – CAROLINA

Jeff Okudah – CB

School: Ohio State | Year: Junior

The Panthers have a number of defensive areas to address this offseason, but adding a corner with Okudah’s profile gives them a big leg up. Last season, according to PFF, he allowed the eighth-fewest yards per target in the FBS (4.9). And over his three campaigns in Columbus, he yielded just two touchdowns on 118 targets. This will help increase the impact of second-year pass rusher Brian Burns, as well, because defensive backs and fronts work in unison.

8 – ARIZONA

CeeDee Lamb – WR

School: Oklahoma | Year: Junior

Systems and familiarity create measurable learning-curve reductions, which is why Lamb — paired with Kyler Murray’s arm and Kliff Kingsbury’s game plan — creates value that leapfrogs other significant needs. This pick suggests that the Cardinals will address their defense in free agency, since it doesn’t need to become elite in order for their offense to win.

9 – DENVER

Javon Kinlaw – DT

School: South Carolina | Year: Senior

Adding an interior presence — and reinforcing their fruitful 2019 first-round pick, Josh Allen — to shore up their pressure front is the Jags’ optimal win-share-earning strategy, given the team’s current questions on defense. Yes, I know CB A.J. Bouye is heading to Denver. But shoring up the front at No. 9 with only one corner off the board creates the highest likelihood of addressing both needs with the highest quality picks at both positions.

10 – CLEVELAND

Andrew Thomas – OT

School: Georgia | Year: Junior

In his 41 starts at Georgia, Thomas played 1,021 passing snaps and allowed just five total sacks (per PFF). I’m not going to say I spotlighted the offensive line as a problem area for the Browns ahead of last season, but if you remember me writing as much, then you aren’t wrong.

11 – NY JETS

Jedrick Wills – OT

School: Alabama | Year: Junior

This is a strong tackle class overall, as shown by the fact that this is now my third tackle off the board. In Wills’ 29 starts at Alabama, PFF had him allowing just one sack. The Jets’ O-line allowed 52 sacks last season (fourth-most).

12 – LAS VEGAS

Jerry Jeudy – WR

School: Alabama | Year: Junior

When I track Jeudy using computer vision, his route-running ability stands out the most in this entire class of exceptional receivers. Basically, when I track where he ran, it looks like it was drawn exactly from a playbook. Also, his game-speed tracking shows he can quickly navigate away from defenders when they come within 5 yards of him during his routes. To my model, his 4.45 40-yard dash is one of the more predictive figures in terms of verifying his already-high-ceiling resume, due to his game-measured speed.

13 – INDIANAPOLIS

Justin Herbert – QB

School: Oregon | Year: Senior

With the O-line and run-concept mastery the Colts already boast, the opportunity to draft a quarterback who profiles like Herbert creates more upside than downside. His 52:7 TD-to-INT ratio from a clean pocket since 2018 (PFF) sparkles. Herbert’s film shows a lot of screen passes (1,213 yards since 2018, second-most among FBS quarterbacks) and attempts behind the line of scrimmage (114 in 2019, third-most in FBS). It also shows 32 drops by his receivers last season (sixth-most in FBS, per PFF). What’s my main takeaway? The clean-pocket information helps show what the potential is, while the other notes give clues to the situation he was in at Oregon. And I should mention that his upside probability gets better if he doesn’t need to start right away.

14 – TAMPA BAY

K’Lavon Chaisson – Edge

School: LSU | Year: Sophomore (RS)

No matter what happens with pending free agent Shaq Barrett, adding Chaisson to this Todd Bowles-led defense is the fastest road to wins added at pick No. 14.

15 – DENVER

Xavier McKinney – S

School: Alabama | Year: Junior

McKinney is multi-talented — the type of safety who profiles well in a Vic Fangio defense that will require him to perform a number of roles. McKinney has experience playing nickel linebacker and is an effective blitzer.

16 – ATLANTA

Ross Blacklock – DT

School: TCU | Year: Junior (RS)

Contract uncertainty — with Vic Beasley and Adrian Clayborn heading into free agency — drives the bigger need here for defensive line, as opposed to corner.

17 – DALLAS

Laviska Shenault – WR

School: Colorado | Year: Junior

With 1,060 yards after the catch since 2018 (most in the Pac-12), Shenault’s ability to create first downs lands him here with Dak Prescott (and likely a veteran receiver who doesn’t command a premium salary). If you want to know why my model likes him so much, go back and watch his 2018 film. This past season, nagging injuries and a new coaching staff sapped his production.

18 – MIAMI (from Pittsburgh)

Mekhi Becton – OT

School: Louisville | Year: Junior

Protecting your QB assets with a 6-foot-7, 364-pounder — who, it must be repeated, ran a 5.10 40-yard dash(!) — is one of the better insurance policies around.

19 – LAS VEGAS (from Chicago)

Patrick Queen – LB

School: LSU | Year: Junior

Addressing the middle of the defense is a quick-and-efficient way to improve a Raiders unit with a number of important needs. Queen’s 4.50 speed showed up last season in the form of 12.5 tackles for loss (among other areas).

20 – JACKSONVILLE (from LA Rams)

C.J. Henderson – CB

School: Florida | Year: Junior

Now that A.J. Bouye is on his way to Denver, Henderson would fill a huge need. The Jaguars only had 10 interceptions last season (tied for fifth-fewest).

21 – PHILADELPHIA

Trevon Diggs – CB

School: Alabama | Year: Senior

I am sure I will hear from Eagles fans who desperately want a wide receiver here, but Diggs’ size and versatility at the corner position create more wins for 2020. His 42.3 completion percentage allowed in coverage in 2019 was the second-lowest in a pass-happy SEC (according to Pro Football Focus).

22 – BUFFALO

A.J. Epenesa – Edge

School: Iowa | Year: Junior

No Big Ten pass rusher had more QB pressures in 2019 than Epenesa with 58, per PFF. Adding youth to this front creates the biggest uptick for Buffalo.

23 – NEW ENGLAND

Henry Ruggs III – WR

School: Alabama | Year: Junior

With his 4.27 speed, Ruggs is blazing fast, even by NFL standards. This will spread out opposing defenses and significantly increase the space for shorter-depth targets to be caught, like by Julian Edelman.

24 – NEW ORLEANS

Justin Jefferson – WR

School: LSU | Year: Junior

Despite accumulating most of his yards last season between the numbers, don’t box Jefferson into being a slot receiver. He profiles to be used in many creative ways, and paired with Michael Thomas … This could be pretty fun to watch. Jefferson had 13 touchdowns on passes of 10-plus air yards in 2019 (second-most in FBS).

25 – MINNESOTA

Kristian Fulton – CB

School: LSU | Year: Senior

Addressing the back end of the defense is a key need for the Vikings. Fulton had 20 forced incompletions in 2019 at LSU (tied for most in the FBS, per PFF) and his 44.9 completion percentage allowed in coverage was a top-20 figure.

26 – MIAMI (from Houston)

Yetur Gross-Matos – Edge

School: Penn State | Year: Junior

The Penn State edge rusher helps start to address a major inefficiency of the Dolphins, as they were the least disruptive defense against the pass last season, getting within a 5-foot halo of the opposing QB on just 17.6 percent of passing snaps.

27 – SEATTLE

A.J. Terrell – CB

School: Clemson | Year: Junior

Depending on how free agency nets out, the front of the defense could be a much stronger need — or even shift things to make Oklahoma LB Kenneth Murray a more optimal pick. The Seahawks tied for the second-fewest sacks last season (28) — but remember, defensive fronts and backs win together.

28 – BALTIMORE

D’Andre Swift – RB

School: Georgia | Year: Junior

The Ravens have a strong history of going “best player available,” and I really like it when my model aligns with that. Baltimore relies on the ground game SO heavily — I love the idea of reinforcing that strength by adding a truly gifted back like Swift to the RB stable.

29 – TENNESSEE

Joshua Jones – OT

School: Houston | Year: Senior (RS)

Jack Conklin’s probable replacement and a great value at 29th overall.

30 – GREEN BAY

Brandon Aiyuk – WR

School: Arizona State | Year: Senior

Last season at Arizona State, Aiyuk racked up 710 yards after the catch (fifth-most among FBS receivers) and 378 yards after contact on receptions (second-most). Aaron Rodgers and the Packers certainly wouldn’t mind adding a receiver with this kind of playmaking ability.

31 – SAB FRANCISCO

Tee Higgins – WR

School: Clemson | Year: Junior

And the award for Least Likely To Pick In Their Original Draft Slot goes to … the Niners! San Francisco doesn’t currently hold a pick in the second, third or fourth round, making this an obvious trade-down situation — to spread out draft capital among more picks. But for the sake of this exercise, the 49ers select a receiver who can create space. Higgins’ 3.7 receiving yards per route run ranked third in the FBS last season, per PFF, as did his 12 TD grabs on passes of 10-plus air yards.

32 – KANSAS CITY

Noah Igbinoghene – CB

School: Auburn | Year: Junior

The corner position is where my model suggests the Chiefs should focus. Picking at No. 32, it’s possible that they can create more value in free agency and look elsewhere. However, with a Patrick Mahomes mega contract coming down the pike — and given how expensive corners can be on the open market — adding Igbinoghene could be a sound strategy. His value on special teams — 44 kick returns for 1,199 yards and two TDs in three seasons at Auburn — only adds to the resume.