AROUND THE NFL

Daily Briefing

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com is unimpressed with the Bears’ big moves – coming to terms with DE ROBERT QUINN and TE JIMMY GRAHAM:

The early word on Tuesday that the Bears could jump in the Brady sweepstakes or make a push for Bridgewater was quickly shot down. The Bears apparently can’t have nice things right now. Instead, they are paying premium dollars to players unlikely to overachieve. Robert Quinn was a revelation in Dallas, but there’s a reason he was available for so cheap last offseason. He’s averaged 7.4 sacks, 6.4 QB hits and under 550 snaps over the last five seasons combined, per Pro Football Focus. Quinn is an upgrade over Leonard Floyd — who was released on Tuesday — but handing Quinn $30 million guaranteed is a major risk considering his history of back injuries.

Tight end Jimmy Graham’s two-year, $16 million contract is even harder to understand for a team short on cap space. If Aaron Rodgers couldn’t squeeze any more big plays out of Graham, there’s little reason to think Mitchell Trubisky will.

NFC EAST

PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles were in on WR D’ANDRE HOPKINS, but then backed off.  See HOUSTON for more.

– – –

The Eagles make what may be the least-noted QB deal of the week.  Dave Zangaro of NBCSportsPhiladelphia:

The Eagles have agreed to terms on a one-year contract with backup quarterback Nate Sudfeld, the team announced Tuesday morning.

This means Sudfeld will return in a backup role to Carson Wentz for 2020, which will be his fourth season with the Eagles.

“We’re very comfortable with Nate,” head coach Doug Pederson said at the combine last month. “Obviously he has an opportunity (as a free agent). We’ll see what happens this spring when we get down the road with him, But he’s put himself in position to compete and possibly be the No. 2.”

The real question is whether or not Sudfeld will be handed the No. 2 job or if the Eagles will bring in some competition for him.

The top two backup quarterback candidates on the market — Case Keenum and Marcus Mariota — went elsewhere on Monday. So the Eagles could sign a lower-level free agent or use one of their 10 draft picks next month on a developmental quarterback who would hopefully last longer than Clayton Thorson last year. (The Eagles used a fifth-round pick on Thorson and he ended up on the Cowboys’ practice squad.)

Sudfeld, 26, was supposed to be the Eagles’ second-string quarterback in 2019 but he broke his non-throwing wrist in the preseason opener against the Titans. That injury forced the Eagles to go out and sign 40-year-old Josh McCown to back up Wentz. And once they signed McCown, Sudfeld never got his second-string job back.

The Eagles really like Sudfeld and they’ve shown that for years now. First, they brought him to Philly after Sudfeld spent one year in Washington (the Redskins drafted him in the sixth round in 2016 out of Indiana), then they promoted him to the active roster when the Colts tried to sign him and then they left him as the backup during the Super Bowl run in 2017 after Wentz went down.

And Sudfeld certainly seems to have some ability. The 6-foot-6 quarterback has a strong arm and is pretty athletic. But we just don’t really know his upside yet.

So this would seem to mean that QB JOSH McCOWN is not coming back.

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA

And now, QB CAM NEWTON wants out of Charlotte.

And the Panthers are glad to make a deal.

The official word from Panthers.com:

The Panthers on Tuesday gave quarterback Cam Newton permission to seek a trade. General manager Marty Hurney met with Newton and his representation to discuss the plan, signaling the end of a nine-year run in Carolina.

“One of the distinct pleasures of my career was selecting Cam with the first pick in the 2011 draft,” Hurney said. “Every year difficult decisions are made and they are never easy. We have been working with Cam and his agent to find the best fit for him moving forward and he will always be a Carolina Panther in our hearts.”

Newton, who will turn 31 in May, has made the Pro Bowl three times and was the NFL’s MVP in 2015. But Newton has suffered numerous injuries since 2016, which led to multiple surgeries on his throwing shoulder and a foot procedure. Newton, who holds most of Carolina’s all-time passing records, was limited to two games in 2019 after suffering a Lisfranc fracture in his left foot during the preseason.

With his recent injury history – who would want him?  The Chargers or Buccaneers if they don’t get TOM BRADY? 

Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Newton is in the final year of his contract with a salary of $18.6 million and a cap number of $21.1 million. He was limited to two games with a Lisfranc injury to his foot in 2019 and any team dealing for him would likely need assurance that he’s well on his way to returning to action this season. Given the current state of affairs in the U.S., getting that clearance from doctors might take some time.

Newton is quick to let the world know that he doesn’t like the Panthers making it look like their decision to move on was something he sought:

Newton later responded on Instagram that he didn’t request a trade.

@josephperson

Cam Newton setting the record straight, just like Greg Olsen had to do.

“Stop with the word play. I never asked for it,” Newton wrote on Instagram. “There is no dodging this one! I love the Panthers to death and will always love you guys. Please do not try and play me, or manipulate the narrative and act like I wanted this. You forced me into this.”

The stunning decision comes after new coach Matt Rhule emphatically insisted during the NFL Scouting Combine that he “absolutely” wanted Newton to remain in Carolina.

And, it appears to clear the way for QB TEDDY BRIDGEWATER to land in Carolina.

Amid blockbuster news of Tom Brady’s departure from the New England Patriots and Cam Newton being bestowed permission to seek a trade, Teddy Bridgewater finds himself with multiple suitors and possibilities.

A season after going undefeated when he was thrust into the starter’s role for the Saints due to Drew Brees’ bum thumb, Bridgewater has drawn interest from the Panthers and Patriots, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Tuesday.

Rapoport added that should Bridgewater find his way to the Panthers, new Carolina offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who was previously an offensive assistant with the Saints, might be among the deciding factors.

As aforementioned, Bridgewater was a sterling 5-0 as the starter for the Saints last season. It was his second year in New Orleans after beginning his career with the Vikings.

Also on Tuesday, the Saints re-signed Brees.

In many ways, Bridgewater is adjacent to some very large news on Tuesday and there’s likely to be some for him directly coming soon.

TAMPA BAY

The DB heard, way back in December, from a source presumably a couple of steps away from Giselle, that QB TOM BRADY did not want to play in the West.  And at the end of the day, John Breech of CBSSports.com and others are reporting that was the case:

With less than 24 hours to go until the start of free agency, Tom Brady hasn’t officially picked a team to play for yet, but it appears he’ll be heading to the Buccaneers.

Before the news came out that Brady was going to take his talents to Tampa, the other team he was apparently considering was the Los Angeles Chargers. So why didn’t Brady end up in L.A.?

According to Jim Trotter of NFL Media, the reason Brady wasn’t interested in signing with the Chargers is due to “family considerations.” Basically, it seems like Brady’s family wouldn’t be making the move with him, and since they’re based on the East Coast, moving all the way out to Los Angeles would make it difficult for Brady to see his family once the NFL season started. Unless there’s a “change of heart” from Brady, the Chargers don’t feel like they’ll be landing the veteran quarterback.

The Chargers were one of at least two teams that reportedly offered Brady more than $30 million per year this week. With the Chargers ruled out, that cleared the path for Brady to pick the Buccaneers. The decision to go to Tampa makes a lot of sense, and that’s because the Buccaneers made it clear this offseason that they wanted him. At the combine in February, Bucs coach Bruce Arians didn’t try to hide the fact that he wanted Brady on the team.

Although the Buccaneers seemed like a long shot to land Brady just a few weeks ago, they’re now the leader in the clubhouse and a deal seems to be all but done, although it hasn’t been officially announced by either Brady or the team.

The Buccaneers might seem like a weird landing spot for Brady, but it actually make a lot of sense for a lot of reasons, and if you’re wondering what those reasons are: They have a lot of offensive weapons, they have a lot of salary cap room to add any piece Brady needs and they have a 67-year-old coach who wants to win now. The next Super Bowl is also being played in Tampa, which would give Brady a chance to do something that no other player has ever done: play a Super Bowl in their home stadium.

This:

Scott Hanson

@ScottHanson

Source tells me Tom Brady, Derek Jeter, Bill Gates & @TBLightning  owner Jeff Vinik had dinner Sunday night @bernssteakhouse  in Tampa. 

Brady & Jeter (who lives in Tampa) – friends for years.

Gates / Vinik developing real estate & infrastructure in downtown Tampa.

This from ESPN Stats & Info:

@MikeEvans13_  stands 6’5.

@TomBrady has never thrown a pass to a wide receiver that tall in his career.

In fact, most of Brady’s top wide receivers in New England were under 6-feet tall.

But we should point out that Rob Gronkowski is 6’6”.

– – –

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com, who is a tough grader on most everything, is agog at what the Buccaneers are doing (edited version below, whole thing here):

For two decades, Bill Belichick has put the New England Patriots ahead of any single player on the roster. Virtually every veteran who contributed to the greatest dynasty in modern sports has been shipped out or allowed to leave once he was no longer useful or willing to contribute at the right price. Mike Vrabel was traded to the Chiefs. Randy Moss was shipped to the Titans. Vince Wilfork finished up with the Texans. Adam Vinatieri had a whole second career with the Colts.

If there were going to be one exception to that rule, I always figured it would be star quarterback Tom Brady. …

This morning, it became clear that the rules weren’t different after all. After years of being lauded for taking less than market value to help the Patriots win, in August 2019, Brady decided it was time for a raise. The Patriots boosted his compensation from $15 million to $23 million and lowered his cap hit by $5.5 million. In the process, Brady got the Patriots to agree that they wouldn’t franchise him in 2020.

The threat of the franchise tag would have limited Brady’s leverage and likely led the Patriots to keep the best player in team history for at least one more season. Instead, when the two sides started to negotiate an extension, it appears that Belichick got that familiar feeling. Brady had an offer of $30 million per season on the table, and by all accounts, the Patriots weren’t willing to compete. This moment was always going to come if Brady didn’t retire after a Super Bowl victory, but when it did, I figured Belichick or Brady would blink. In the end, neither did.

Now, Brady is poised to become a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a combination that would have seemed impossible even a few months ago.

Was Brady foolish to pick the Buccaneers? Should Tampa have gone for one of the other quarterbacks available? Can Brady be competitive and even compete for a Super Bowl with his new team? Let’s run through what we know about this new marriage and get a sense of what to expect for Brady in Florida.

Let’s play fact or fiction on Brady’s performance

Even Brady would agree that he declined in 2019. I wrote about his decline in early December, and though a fair percentage of people (myself included) thought the Patriots would right the ship and figure out a sustainable offensive philosophy, it didn’t happen.

Given the endless chatter surrounding Brady’s coming deal over the past few months, I’ve read and heard lots of examples of how and why Brady fell off in 2019. Let’s run through a few of them to see if they caused the decline and are likely to continue in 2020.

Fact or fiction: His off-target rate was way too high

Brady has been known for his accuracy over the past decade, which is why his off-target rate of 21.7% last season was so disconcerting.

Indeed, Brady hasn’t posted an above-average off-target rate since 2010. His worst mark came in 2013, when the Patriots were forced to start players such as Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins and Michael Hoomanawanui for eight or more games because of injuries. It was also a season in which Rob Gronkowski played only six games. Brady still managed to lead the league’s third-highest scoring offense, and though it wasn’t his best statistical season, the 36-year-old showed that he was far from finished.

My strong suspicion is that Brady uses these sorts of off-target throws to end plays without risking a sack or an interception. His interception and sack rates have been above-average in each of his past 17 seasons as a starter. With Brady lacking faith in his non-Edelman receivers to make contested catches and 28.4% of his targets going to players who weren’t on the Patriots the season before, he likely wanted to live and play for another down or another possession more often than he would’ve with Gronk in the fold.

Would you prefer Brady to have a low off-target rate, all things being equal? Of course. Do I think the off-target rate from 2019 is proof that he has slipped dramatically? Given how effective he was with a similar off-target rate in years past, I do not.

Fact or fiction: His receivers couldn’t hold on to his passes

On the other hand, was one of the reasons Brady’s numbers dropped off his receivers’ dropping passes? We know he wasn’t thrilled with his receiving corps, and 3.9% of his passes in 2019 were dropped, which was the seventh-highest rate in the league.

Both important and unimportant receivers didn’t help Brady in 2019. Edelman, who was targeted a whopping 156 times, posted a drop rate of 5.8%. (By ESPN’s charting, his nine drops were two more than that of any other pass-catcher.) Mohamed Sanu, Jakobi Meyers and Josh Gordon were each over 4.3%. Matt LaCosse dropped two of his 19 targets, and the oft-frustrating Sony Michel dropped three of his 20 attempts, with two of those coming in the red zone.

Fact or fiction: He struggled off play-action

Brady was about as good on play-action in 2019 as he was during his MVP season, so it wasn’t as if play-action were dragging him down to mediocrity.

Fact or fiction: He couldn’t make plays downfield

Some of these arguments were true, but not to such an extent that it should have driven a drastic decline in Brady’s performance. I’m not sure this one is even true. The NFL’s definition of deep passes is throws traveling 16 or more yards downfield. Brady posted a 97.6 passer rating on those throws, which was his fifth-best mark of the past decade and virtually identical to his deep passer rating from his MVP season in 2017 (96.2).

Fact or fiction: He struggled in the red zone

This one’s a fact. Brady posted his second-worst passer rating in the red zone of the past decade (91.3) in 2019. His QBR was just 20.5, which is less than half of his previous low of the decade, at 49.4, and the 28th-worst mark in the league. Only Andy Dalton and Mason Rudolph were worse. That’s uncommonly bad for Brady, and it’s a serious problem if it keeps up.

Of course, Brady sorely missed Gronk — and the threat of Gronk — in the red zone.

Fact or fiction: He wasn’t great against the blitz

This was true, but again, it wasn’t really different from previous seasons.

Fact or fiction: He struggled under pressure

This is more concerning. Brady posted a passer rating of 42.5 and a QBR of just 7.1 when pressured last season. Both marks were his worst of the past decade. Everyone struggles when they get pressured, but Brady ranked 28th in passer rating and 25th in QBR when he was bothered last season. He ranked 10th in passer rating and fifth in QBR against pressure in 2018.

Brady has had bad seasons against pressure before.,,At some point, though, he’s going to slow down to the point that he can’t effectively move within the pocket. I’m not sure 2019 was that point, but we can’t rule it out, either.

The problem, at the end of the day, wasn’t that Brady was bad in the red zone or struggled under pressure or dealt with too many drops. The problem was all of those things. You can have one or two of those things happen and still have a great season. Dak Prescott’s receivers had the league’s highest drop percentage. Ryan Tannehill was 27th in passer rating in the red zone. But you can’t survive struggling in each and every one of those areas to post a great season.

Of course, it’s fair to wonder whether Brady’s underlying performance and talent level slipped to the point that he was below average in each of those categories. We won’t know for sure until we see him on the field in 2020, but my suspicion from watching him closely both before and after my article was published in December is still that he wasn’t the primary person at fault.

Will things be better in 2020?

Brady is going to have better receiving weapons in Tampa Bay than he had in New England in 2019. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin covered up a lot of Winston’s mistakes the past several seasons. Brady is a better decision-maker than Winston. Evans and Godwin are the type of receivers who make a quarterback feel comfortable throwing a 50/50 ball when nothing is developing. (They might have made Winston too comfortable.) Brady didn’t have that guy in New England, even if he’ll miss Julian Edelman’s agility.

With rumors suggesting that Brady wants to play with Antonio Brown, the embattled former Steelers star could theoretically join the Bucs and serve as the closest thing to Edelman on the roster. Brown already lives outside Miami, though he’s still under NFL investigation and could be subject to a suspension.

The possibility of Brown aside, I’d argue that Brady’s upgrades at tight end might be even more significant. In Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard, Brady has two big bodies who should serve as viable red zone targets. Brate seemed to build a connection with Winston in the red zone. Although Howard spent all of 2019 in Bruce Arians’ doghouse, few tight ends in the league have his combination of size and speed. Brady is going from arguably the worst tight end situation in the league to one of the best. One of his most important tasks will be getting Howard on Arians’ good side.

On the other hand, I would be worried about Tampa’s ability to protect Brady from pressure on the edge. The interior of the Bucs’ line — center Ryan Jensen and guards Ali Marpet and Alex Cappa — is one of the league’s better groups. Marpet, in particular, is one of the most underrated players in the league, even by offensive lineman standards.

Tackle is another story. Donovan Smith has been average to below-average in his career, though 2019 was a competent season, with Smith ranking 30th among tackles in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric. Right tackle Demar Dotson ranked 25th, but the long-time starter committed 10 penalties and was flagged five times for holding. Dotson is a free agent, and there’s no obvious replacement for the 34-year-old lurking on the roster.

Brady was down two starting offensive linemen for most of 2019 in left tackle Isaiah Wynn and center David Andrews, though the Pats were able to capably replace the latter with Ted Karras. They turned to street free agent Marshall Newhouse to replace Wynn with mixed results. Smith would likely be an upgrade on Newhouse, but a healthy Wynn is better than either player. Right now, the Bucs don’t have anything of note at right tackle.

The fit for Brady in Tampa

My first instinct when I thought about Brady linking up with Arians was that it wouldn’t be a great fit between quarterback and coach. Why? Let me explain in a table. This is where both Arians’ offenses and Brady’s Patriots have ranked in terms of average air yards per attempt going back to when Arians took over as Steelers offensive coordinator in 2007. In other words, we’re looking at how far Brady’s teams have thrown the football versus Arians’ quarterbacks:

Average Air Yards Per Attempt Rank, By Year

YEAR   ARIANS TEAM  ARIANS            BRADY

2007     Steelers                1                      11

2009     Steelers                3                      16

2010     Steelers                3                      26

2011     Steelers                9                      19

2012     Colts                      1                     11

2013     Cardinals               4                      14

2014     Cardinals               1                      19

2015     Cardinals               1                      21

2016     Cardinals              3                      23

2017     Cardinals              3                        8

2019     Buccaneers          1                      27

In nine of his past 11 seasons as the person in charge of the offense, Arians has led one of the three deepest passing attacks in football. Brady and the Patriots have ranked in the top 10 once in that time. Everyone reading this has seen Brady play quarterback. I think he’s an adequate deep thrower at this point of his career, but it’s hardly his game to throw the ball 10 yards downfield per attempt. Across a group of quarterbacks that includes Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton and Winston, Arians has instructed his quarterbacks to fire missiles downfield like no other coach in football. Arians is no risk it, no biscuit. Brady typically finds a way to get the biscuit without risking much at all.

Do I think Arians is going to hand Brady the 2019 Bucs playbook and tell him to go stretch his arm for the fall to come? No. He’s too good of a coach for that. My suspicion is that we’ll see some of the play-action concepts Brady loved in New England integrated into Arians’ attack. The 67-year-old coach will install more quick game to play to Brady’s strength of getting the ball out quickly and accurately to an open receiver.

Both the Patriots and the Buccaneers went with empty formations more than 100 times in 2019, which ranked among the top 10 teams in the league. Both Arians and New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels asked their quarterback to make quick, accurate passes in those scenarios. Brady will be better there than Winston was in 2019. After all that, yes, I do think we’ll see Brady take shots downfield more frequently with the Bucs than he did with New England. We won’t see the McDaniels offense exported to Tampa or the Arians offense thrust upon Brady, but we’ll see something that incorporates the strengths of both.

The Brady benefits

Brady changes the short- and long-term future of the Bucs franchise. Instantly, an organization that ranked 31st in home attendance percentage in 2019 can expect to see a run on season tickets. It will sell an unimaginable number of Brady jerseys as it launches new uniforms this year. If the new uniform doesn’t incorporate the classic creamsicle design, the Bucs are also going to sell your dad and all of his friends retro Brady jerseys. The actual cash outlay for Brady is going to pay for itself in a heartbeat.

In the long term, even if Brady isn’t around for long, the Buccaneers are going to attract national attention for the first time in nearly two decades. If Brady is able to make a deep playoff run or win a Super Bowl, this team is going to gain fans around the country who never would have paid attention to Tampa.

The Bucs should also be able to interest veteran free agents who want a shot at playing with the greatest quarterback of all time while they have the chance. There isn’t a ton left in the free-agent market at Tampa’s biggest remaining needs on offense, but as post-June 1 cuts pop up, this team should be in the lead for possible additions at running back and right tackle. I’d expect the Buccaneers to use the 14th pick of the draft on a solution at tackle if they can’t find one earlier. Oft-penalized Seahawks tackle Germain Ifedi is the best available player left on the market at the position.

Defensive players won’t get to play with Brady, but again, I would expect veterans to at least give this team a second look. Tampa used the franchise tag on Shaquil Barrett and re-signed Jason Pierre-Paul, but it needs to add a replacement for free agent Ndamukong Suh and rotation end Carl Nassib, who signed with the Raiders. The Bucs are suddenly one of the NFL’s most appealing landing spots, owing to their location in income-tax-free Florida and the presence of Brady on the roster.

The fantasy impact

Fantasy managers who have Evans or Godwin in a league are likely licking their chops at the idea of swapping out the scattershot Winston for Brady. I wouldn’t be so sure.

Assuming that the Bucs are more efficient with Brady at the helm and run longer drives, I would expect Tampa’s possession total to regress toward the mean in 2020. If the Bucs are winning in the fourth quarter, they’ll also likely run the ball more frequently than they did in 2019, which would mean fewer chances for the top two wideouts. Evans and Godwin were garbage-time monsters in fantasy, but the Bucs shouldn’t be trying to catch up as frequently this season. In addition, just five of Winston’s 33 touchdown passes in the previous season went to tight ends; expect that number to increase with Brady.

Can the Bucs win in 2020?

Yes, the Buccaneers are capable of winning a Super Bowl with Brady. Although they finished 29th in points allowed last season, they were the fifth-best defense in football by DVOA. Tampa faced the league’s toughest slate of opposing offenses, inherited the worst average starting field position from Winston and was forced to defend 189 meaningful possessions, which was tied for the most of any team in football. Winston also threw seven pick-sixes, which count against the scoring defense. Brady has thrown six pick-sixes in the past 10 years, though his final pass in a Patriots uniform was a pick-six to Logan Ryan.

By DVOA, the Bucs were an excellent defense with a below-average offense and terrible special teams. Their placekicking took a big step forward last season with the addition of Matt Gay, but the rookie was still below average. Tampa also struggled to return kicks or punts effectively, with T.J. Logan struggling in both roles. This is a quiet place for this team to try to improve its roster in the weeks and months to come.

Brady’s division will certainly be tougher with Tampa Bay. The Bills gave the Patriots a couple of scares last season, but the Dolphins were tanking, and the Jets might as well have been. The Panthers appear to be in the middle of a transitional period in Year 1 of the Matt Rhule era, but the Saints were the fourth-best team in football in 2019 and virtually identical to the Patriots. They were a comfortably better team than the Bucs, and I’m not sure Brady is enough to make up the difference. The Falcons, even given their defensive woes, are a more dangerous threat than the Jets or Dolphins were a year ago.

Tampa will also get eight games against the NFC North and AFC West, including a home game against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs. If Brady can push the offense into the top 10 and avoid leaving the defense in compromising situations week after week with Winston-style takeaways, the Bucs should be good enough to overcome some defensive regression and make the playoffs. They project somewhere in the 10-6 range in 2020.

Why I love this deal

In general, any time you can add a starting-caliber quarterback without needing to give up significant draft capital, it’s going to be a good move. The absolute worst-case scenario is something like the Brock Osweiler situation in Houston a few years ago, and the Texans were able to get out of that situation by using draft capital after one disastrous season. The Bucs will forego a compensatory pick for losing Suh by signing Brady, but the top quarterback on their roster before Wednesday was Ryan Griffin.

It’s fair to expect Brady to be diminished from the guy he was five years ago or even two years ago. It’s also impossible to separate how much Brady has declined from how much the infrastructure around him fell off in 2019. There’s no data on what a 43-year-old starting quarterback is supposed to look or age like. Brady could drop off precipitously and be unplayable by the end of the season. He could also take another step forward and look like the guy who was good enough to win a Super Bowl 14 months ago.

Putting yourself in Arians’ shoes, though, was there an option without flaws on the market? Winston is a roller coaster with seemingly no end. Ryan Tannehill never made it to the market. Philip Rivers also slipped during the second half of 2019. Teddy Bridgewater’s only effective reps since he suffered a serious knee injury came in what amounts to quarterback paradise with the Saints. Andy Dalton’s résumé as a difference-maker amounts to one season with a great line and great weapons in 2015. Every other veteran available profiled as a borderline starter, and as a guy who turns 68 in October, Arians doesn’t have time to develop a rookie quarterback. It wasn’t clear that the Bucs would even be in position to draft one at No. 14.

Of the quarterbacks who were available to the Buccaneers, Brady had the highest short-term floor and ceiling. For whatever off-field benefits Brady will offer the Bucs, no free-agent signing is going to move his team closer to a Super Bowl than Brady with the Bucs. Even if it fails miserably, this team had a chance to sign the greatest quarterback of all time to fill an enormous position of need on its roster.

Grade: A

AFC WEST

LAS VEGAS

Gregg Rosenthal likes the Raiders’ signings:

The Raiders linebacker group: Raiders GM Mike Mayock noted last month at the NFL Scouting Combine that their entire defense needed help, a statement that was especially true at linebacker. Consider one problem solved. Mayock made Bears linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski a Day 1 priority after the rangy middle linebacker made play after play as a fill-in starter last season. The Chris Wesseling favorite will team with one of my favorite players in this entire free agent class, former Rams linebacker Cory Littleton. Off-ball linebackers who can cover remain one of the few undervalued resources in the NFL and Littleton is one of the best in football on all four downs, including special teams. Considering how slow and underwhelming the Raiders linebackers were last year, Littleton’s three-year, $36 million deal could prove to be a steal.

For what it’s worth, the DB is a big fan of Littleton, as well.

AFC NORTH

PITTSBURGH

This:

Ian Rapoport

@RapSheet

Source: FB Derek Watt is signing with the #Steelers. Multiple Watts now in Pittsburgh.

@JJWatt

Well this is very unfortunate in regards to the race for “favorite uncle” for Derek’s son Logan…

Also seems to put me at a severe disadvantage in the “Mom & Dad’s favorite team” category.

But damn is it awesome for Derek & TJ. Could not be happier for them and for Pittsburgh.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

The Texans traded WR D’ANDRE HOPKINS to Arizona only after the Eagles backed off.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Cardinals landed one of the best wide receivers in the NFL when they got DeAndre Hopkins from the Texans. But the Cardinals weren’t the only team involved in trade talks surrounding Hopkins.

The Eagles also talked to the Texans but decided against trading for Hopkins, based both on what the Texans were asking for and what Hopkins wanted in a new contract, Adam Schefter said on 97.5 The Fanatic.

What the Texans got for Hopkins seems shockingly minuscule: Houston got running back David Johnson (who was a candidate to get cut by the Cardinals), plus a second-round draft pick and an exchange of fourth-round picks. It’s surprising that the Cardinals only had to give that up for Hopkins — and surprising that the Eagles and other teams didn’t offer the Texans more to secure Hopkins’ services.

Unless, of course, Hopkins is making contractual demands that teams simply can’t justify paying. We know that Hopkins and the Cardinals will renegotiate his contract, but we don’t know exactly what Hopkins is demanding, or whether he has privately told teams that he won’t show up without a new deal. What we do know is that the Cardinals added one of the best playmakers in football, and didn’t have to give up a lot to out-bid the other teams that were interested.

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

This is cynical – but we think Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com probably nailed it:

As of Monday at noon ET, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady became eligible to agree to terms with any team. He hasn’t.

Instead, he went to social media on Tuesday and said goodbye to the Patriots while also making it clear that he doesn’t know where he’ll go next. If he truly doesn’t know, it’s possible that his public farewell is aimed at least in part at goosing the market.

Even as it became more and more clear that Brady could be leaving, many refused to believe it. And if potentially interested teams believed that any offer they’d make would get shopped back to New England as leverage to sign a new contract with the Patriots, why bother to even make him an offer?

Today’s message is clear: Go ahead and bother. Tom is free and clear and looking for a new home.

While much of what Brady wrote (or, more accurately, what someone he pays wrote and he signed off on) was aimed at securing the high road when the time comes for Patriots fans to place blame, the land rush that many expected hasn’t happened. Brady’s statement surely is aimed at shaking the trees to get more teams than the Chargers and the Buccaneers to make offers (the Bears, for example, are looking for a quarterback), and also at perhaps getting the Chargers and the Buccaneers to sweeten their proposed deals.

Robert Kraft makes clear that Brady wanted to leave.  Dakota Randall of NESN.com:

Robert Kraft was in an awfully talkative mood Monday. The Patriots owner initiated damage control protocol shortly after Tom Brady announced his decision to leave New England. Through his official statement, conversation with Stephen A. Smith and back-and-forths with reporters, Kraft made it clear that, according to him, Brady is the one who wanted his marriage with the Patriots to end. So, why did Brady “want” to leave New England? Check out this excerpt from Tom E. Curran’s column: I asked Kraft if he was disappointed that the Patriots did not get deeper into negotiations with Brady. “It’s not about that,” said Kraft. “This is big picture. I just don’t think he was going to be happy staying in our system at this point.” Make of that what you will.

Bill Belichick’s statement is classy:

Across 20 seasons that saw more glory than any NFL career in 100 autumns, Tom Brady played for just one coach and just one owner.

Now, upon Brady’s new-era-signaling announcement Tuesday morning, the six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback is set to play for a coach who isn’t Bill Belichick and an owner other than Robert Kraft for the first time.

In Kraft’s eyes, it was just time, as he told the NFL Network’s Mike Giardi, “if Tom wanted to remain a Patriot, we would have had a deal.”

Brady and Kraft’s relationship over the years was known to be a great one over myriad great seasons, while many colored Brady and Belichick’s union in far less rosy of a hue. Nonetheless, in the aftermath of Brady’s announcement of his departure, Belichick and Kraft issued statements of unsurprisingly fond sentiment.

Belichick issued credit to Brady for being one of the creators of how the Patriots went about their winning ways during their dynastic run and concluded with the highest of praise.

“Tom was not just a player who bought into our program. He was one of its original creators. Tom lived and perpetuated our culture. On a daily basis, he was a tone setter and a bar raiser. … He didn’t just win. He won championships over and over again,” Belichick’s statement began. “Sometimes in life, it takes some time to pass before truly appreciating something or someone but that has not been the case with Tom. He is a special person and the greatest quarterback of all-time.”

As for the personal side of the marriage of the most successful head coach-quarterback duo in the league’s history, Belichick touched upon that, as well, offering his gratitude for all that Brady did for the franchise and him. In doing so, he made it clear that how things ended changes nothing about all the success that preceded the conclusion.

“Tom and I will always have a great relationship built on love, admiration, respect and appreciation,” Belichick said. “Tom’s success as a player and his character as a person are exceptional. Nothing about the end of Tom’s Patriots career changes how unfathomably spectacular it was. With his relentless competitiveness and longevity, he earned everyone’s adoration and will be celebrated forever. It has been a privilege to coach Tom Brady for 20 years.

“I am extremely grateful for what he did for our team and for me personally.”

– – –

With Brady gone, where do the Patriots turn next?  Jared Dubin of CBSSports.com:

We’ll walk through all of the realistic options they have under center in the space below

In-house options Cody Kessler

Stidham was the Patriots’ fourth-round pick (No. 133 overall) last season. He had a solid career at Baylor and Auburn, completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 7,217 yards, 48 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in two-plus seasons as a starter. He was viewed as a developmental prospect, the kind of player you can take a shot on but do not necessarily view as a definite future starter. He threw passes in only two games last season, and it was something like a disaster. He went 2 of 3 for 14 yards and a pick-six against the Jets, and 0 of 1 against the Bills. It seems extremely unlikely that he enters next season as the starting quarterback.

Kessler is a journeyman former third-round pick (No. 93) of the Cleveland Browns. While I was once uninformed enough to not understand why he wasn’t considered a top NFL prospect, he has not shown himself to be a starter-quality player in the league. Granted, his previous opportunities came in Cleveland and Jacksonville, but it’s difficult to imagine the Patriots being comfortable with him as their primary option under center.

Free agency

Jameis Winston

Winston is probably the most talented quarterback available this offseason, but he is also the most frustrating. His 33-touchdown, 30-interception season in 2019 perfectly exemplifies his merits and his foibles. The Buccaneers are talking like they might be ready to move on from him, which puts him in play, but it’s pretty difficult to see Bill Belichick as willing to put up with Jameis’ turnovers — not to mention all of the question marks surrounding his behavior off the field, particularly when it comes to his treatment of women.

Players who could be traded or cut

Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Jacoby Brissett, Nick Foles, Nick Mullens

Dalton has probably been the most-discussed potential option for New England if Brady leaves. He’s a steady veteran who has displayed a measure of consistency throughout his career, and actually led the Cincinnati Bengals to multiple playoff appearances in a row. Cincy is obviously widely expected to take Joe Burrow with the No. 1 overall pick, and it would not make much sense to keep Dalton on the roster at his cap hit when they could move on without dead money. Perhaps they try to wait until the last minute for a trade, but it seems more likely they cut him loose before the free-agency period opens and let him find a new team where he can at least compete for the starting job.

One of the teams that has been connected to Brady in recent rumors is the Raiders, who would obviously and necessarily be moving on from Carr if they were to bring Brady in. That puts Carr in play for the Pats. Similarly, the Colts are heavily rumored to be interested in Philip Rivers, and they could save around $15.9 million on the cap by trading Brissett. New England drafted him in the first place, and would presumably have some interest if he were to become available.

The Jaguars probably should move on from Foles and just hand the reins to Gardner Minshew. It would be expensive to do so, but it’s better to just rip the bandage off now and only suffer with one year of a big dead cap hit rather than spreading it out over multiple years and thus wasting three-plus years of cheap quarterback play by having another expensive quarterback on the roster. Foles struggles to stay healthy and is extremely inconsistent, but he’s shown an incredibly high ceiling, which could be attractive to the Pats when you consider the other options available.

Mullens is an exclusive rights free agent, but the Pats and Niners have come together on a QB trade before, and John Lynch and Mike Shanahan might be willing to work something out with Belichick if New England is interested in a guy who acquitted himself nicely when filling in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo in 2018.

In the draft

Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Jacob Eason, Jake Fromm, Jalen Hurts

Tagovailoa would probably be in consideration for the No. 1 pick if he were fully healthy. He’s on his way and has gotten good reports on his hip, but concerns about him having to sit out as much as a year before taking the field make Burrow the surefire top QB prospect. But Tua’s still got a ton of potential, and if he checks out medically and interview-wise at the combine, he could still go somewhere inside the top five picks. That means New England would likely have to trade up to get him.

The Patriots have picks No. 23 (first round) and 87 (third), but they also have two fourth-round picks, one fifth-rounders, two sixth-rounders, and three seventh-rounders. It would be pretty difficult to move up for Tagovailoa without giving up a future first, which makes it an extremely remote possibility unless Tagovailoa falls down the draft board. But considering the medicals would be the most likely reason for that, it might take him out of consideration anyway.

Herbert is next on the QB prospect list after Tua, but he could also potentially be a top-10 selection. It’s likely that New England would have to trade up for him as well, though they would not have to go up quite as far and could perhaps get it done without giving up future selections. Love and potentially Eason are in play with the Patriots’ own first-round pick, while Eason, Fromm, and Hurts could be taken on Day 2 or 3.

No CAM NEWTON?

THIS AND THAT

JAMEIS IN LIMBO

Every other 5,000-yard quarterback has been a high level starter in the middle of a long term run with his team – Brees, Brady, Peyton, even Matthew Stafford.

Then there is QB JAMEIS WINSTON who appears headed for a back-up deal.  Jordan Dejani of CBSSports.com:

It appears the reigning NFL passing champion and quarterback who threw the second-most touchdowns in 2019 is not going to be a starter in 2020. It sounds bizarre, but it’s true. It’s probably the third stat that knocked him off the quarterback carousel however, as former Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston led the NFL with 30 interceptions.

Winston posted the first-ever “30 for 30” season in NFL history with 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions, and that decision-making issue apparently trumps his other accomplishments. Tom Brady is reportedly taking over in Tampa, Philip Rivers has agreed to terms with the Indianapolis Colts, the Tennessee Titans re-signed Ryan Tannehill, Drew Brees is staying with the New Orleans Saints, Teddy Bridgewater is reportedly headed to take over for Cam Newton in Carolina and the Cincinnati Bengals are expected to take former LSU quarterback Joe Burrow with the No. 1 overall pick. The only starting jobs that remain open are really the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers, but Ian Rapoport threw a bit of cold water on those possibilities for Winston on Tuesday night.

“You look around the league and there’s really not any starting opportunities,” said Rapoport. “I was told from the Los Angeles Chargers’ perspective, if Jameis was available then they were probably not going to be the home for him. If you look, where could Jameis land, he’s probably going to be a backup.”

The former No. 1 overall pick told reporters at the end of the season that they should “look at my numbers, I’m ballin’.” Well, it appears he will be “ballin'” as a backup. Rapoport made it clear that the Chargers are not interested, which technically leaves the Dolphins and Patriots as the only two open jobs remaining. The Dolphins currently own the No. 5 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, and have been linked to former Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for quite some time, so that could rule them out. The Patriots could be a possible landing spot, but New England is reportedly encouraged by backup Jarrett Stidham and Newton remains a possibility as well.

BROADCAST NEWS

We can only hope that QB TOM BRADY fulfills his contract at a high level into his second season as Peyton Manning did with the Broncos – as the Buccaneers are scheduled to play in New England in 2021.

Meanwhile, Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com looks at what 2020 will bring:

If Tom Brady had landed in San Francisco, the 49ers schedule would have contained a slew of must-see games. With Brady heading to Tampa Bay, the slate still consists of plenty of compelling matchups.

The dates and times won’t be known, but the opponents and the places are. Unfortunately, the Buccaneers won’t play the Patriots — unless both teams get to the Super Bowl. Fortunately, the Bucs otherwise have a very good schedule.

Beyond the six games against the teams of the NFC South (which includes a pair of combined-age-of-84 games against the Saints and Drew Brees), the Buccaneers host Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, Jared Goff and the Rams, Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, and the Chargers — the team #Tommy spurned to pick the Bucs.

The road schedule has TB12 and TB going to Las Vegas to face Jon Gruden and company, Denver (where Brady has struggled often), New York to face the Giants (who are 2-0 against Brady in Super Bowls), Detroit (Matt Patricia reunion), and Chicago (the only game that doesn’t really have much on-the-surface sizzle).

Several of those games surely will be destined for prime time and/or the 4:25 p.m. ET slot on a Sunday afternoon, giving the Buccaneers a profile that they’ve never before had.

Hopefully, that will happen. Because this will mean that football season will happen. Which will mean that some semblance of normalcy will have returned to our nation and our world before September.

And this on the shift in odds from Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Patriots are always near the top of the preseason Super Bowl odds. The Buccaneers are not. But this is going to be a very different year in the NFL.

After news broke that Tom Brady is planning to sign with the Buccaneers in free agency, multiple sports books shifted their odds dramatically, with the Bucs settling in at around 16-1 to win the Super Bowl, and the Patriots dropping to around 20-1. (Odds are fluctuating as we speak, as this is a fluid situation, not only because news is breaking in the NFL but also because the coronavirus pandemic has shuttered Nevada casinos.)

The Buccaneers haven’t even made the playoffs since 2007, while the Patriots haven’t missed the playoffs since 2008 — the year Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week One. But with Brady leaving New England, there’s a shift in power in the NFL.

The defending champion Chiefs remain the favorites to win next year’s Super Bowl.